Search results for: drug prediction

Authors: Jan Henrik Wosnitza

Abstract:

The logistic regression has developed into a standard approach for estimating conditional probabilities in a wide range of applications including credit risk prediction. The article at hand contributes to the current literature on logistic regression fourfold: First, it is demonstrated that the binary logistic regression automatically meets its model assumptions under very general conditions. This result explains, at least in part, the logistic regression's popularity. Second, the requirement of homoscedasticity in the context of binary logistic regression is theoretically substantiated. The variances among the groups of defaulted and non-defaulted obligors have to be the same across the level of the aggregated default indicators in order to achieve linear logits. Third, this article sheds some light on the question why nonlinear logits might be superior to linear logits in case of a small amount of data. Fourth, an innovative methodology for estimating correlations between obligor-specific log-odds is proposed. In order to crystallize the key ideas, this paper focuses on the example of credit risk prediction. However, the results presented in this paper can easily be transferred to any other field of application.

Keywords: correlation, credit risk estimation, default correlation, homoscedasticity, logistic regression, nonlinear logistic regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 426

Authors: Mohammad Reza Dahmardeh Ghaleno, Mohammad Nohtani, Saeedeh Khaledi

Abstract:

Hydrological models are applied to simulation and prediction floods in watersheds. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous and physically model with daily or hourly time step that explains of precipitation, runoff and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave Equation which depend on the slope, velocity and flow route characteristics. Garmabrood watershed located in Mazandaran province in Iran and passing over coordinates 53° 10´ 55" to 53° 38´ 20" E and 36° 06´ 45" to 36° 25´ 30"N. The area of the catchment is about 1133 km2 and elevations in the catchment range from 213 to 3136 m at the outlet, with average slope of 25.77 %. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 61% and 83.17 % respectively.

Keywords: watershed simulation, WetSpa, runoff, flood prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 336

Authors: Misuk Kim, Seokho Kang, Jehyuk Lee, Hyunchang Cho, Sungzoon Cho

Abstract:

In semiconductor manufacturing, virtual metrology (VM) refers to methods to predict properties of a wafer based on machine parameters and sensor data of the production equipment, without performing the (costly) physical measurement of the wafer properties (Wikipedia). Additional benefits include avoidance of human bias and identification of important factors affecting the quality of the process which allow improving the process quality in the future. It is however rare to find VM applied to other areas of manufacturing. In this work, we propose to use VM to copper clad laminate (CCL) manufacturing. CCL is a core element of a printed circuit board (PCB) which is used in smartphones, tablets, digital cameras, and laptop computers. The manufacturing of CCL consists of three processes: Treating, lay-up, and pressing. Treating, the most important process among the three, puts resin on glass cloth, heat up in a drying oven, then produces prepreg for lay-up process. In this process, three important quality factors are inspected: Treated weight (T/W), Minimum Viscosity (M/V), and Gel Time (G/T). They are manually inspected, incurring heavy cost in terms of time and money, which makes it a good candidate for VM application. We developed prediction models of the three quality factors T/W, M/V, and G/T, respectively, with process variables, raw material, and environment variables. The actual process data was obtained from a CCL manufacturer. A variety of variable selection methods and learning algorithms were employed to find the best prediction model. We obtained prediction models of M/V and G/T with a high enough accuracy. They also provided us with information on “important” predictor variables, some of which the process engineers had been already aware and the rest of which they had not. They were quite excited to find new insights that the model revealed and set out to do further analysis on them to gain process control implications. T/W did not turn out to be possible to predict with a reasonable accuracy with given factors. The very fact indicates that the factors currently monitored may not affect T/W, thus an effort has to be made to find other factors which are not currently monitored in order to understand the process better and improve the quality of it. In conclusion, VM application to CCL’s treating process was quite successful. The newly built quality prediction model allowed one to reduce the cost associated with actual metrology as well as reveal some insights on the factors affecting the important quality factors and on the level of our less than perfect understanding of the treating process.

Keywords: copper clad laminate, predictive modeling, quality control, virtual metrology

Procedia PDF Downloads 350

Authors: Ammar Alali, Mahmoud Abughaban

Abstract:

Cost reduction and drilling optimization is the goal of many drilling operators. Historically, stuck pipe incidents were a major segment of non-productive time (NPT) associated costs. Traditionally, stuck pipe problems are part of the operations and solved post-sticking. However, the real key to savings and success is in predicting the stuck pipe incidents and avoiding the conditions leading to its occurrences. Previous attempts in stuck-pipe predictions have neglected the local geology of the problem. The proposed predictive tool utilizes geophysical data processing techniques and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to predict drilling activities events in real-time using surface drilling data with minimum computational power. The method combines two types of analysis: (1) real-time prediction, and (2) cause analysis. Real-time prediction aggregates the input data, including historical drilling surface data, geological formation tops, and petrophysical data, from wells within the same field. The input data are then flattened per the geological formation and stacked per stuck-pipe incidents. The algorithm uses two physical methods (stacking and flattening) to filter any noise in the signature and create a robust pre-determined pilot that adheres to the local geology. Once the drilling operation starts, the Wellsite Information Transfer Standard Markup Language (WITSML) live surface data are fed into a matrix and aggregated in a similar frequency as the pre-determined signature. Then, the matrix is correlated with the pre-determined stuck-pipe signature for this field, in real-time. The correlation used is a machine learning Correlation-based Feature Selection (CFS) algorithm, which selects relevant features from the class and identifying redundant features. The correlation output is interpreted as a probability curve of stuck pipe incidents prediction in real-time. Once this probability passes a fixed-threshold defined by the user, the other component, cause analysis, alerts the user of the expected incident based on set pre-determined signatures. A set of recommendations will be provided to reduce the associated risk. The validation process involved feeding of historical drilling data as live-stream, mimicking actual drilling conditions, of an onshore oil field. Pre-determined signatures were created for three problematic geological formations in this field prior. Three wells were processed as case studies, and the stuck-pipe incidents were predicted successfully, with an accuracy of 76%. This accuracy of detection could have resulted in around 50% reduction in NPT, equivalent to 9% cost saving in comparison with offset wells. The prediction of stuck pipe problem requires a method to capture geological, geophysical and drilling data, and recognize the indicators of this issue at a field and geological formation level. This paper illustrates the efficiency and the robustness of the proposed cross-disciplinary approach in its ability to produce such signatures and predicting this NPT event.

Keywords: drilling optimization, hazard prediction, machine learning, stuck pipe

Procedia PDF Downloads 229

Authors: Subhamita Chakraborty, Shubhabrata Datta, Sujay Kumar Mukherjea, Partha Protim Chattopadhyay

Abstract:

Manufacturing of multiphase high strength steel in hot strip mill have drawn significant attention due to the possibility of forming low temperature transformation product of austenite under continuous cooling condition. In such endeavor, reliable prediction of temperature profile of hot strip coil is essential in order to accesses the evolution of microstructure at different location of hot strip coil, on the basis of corresponding Continuous Cooling Transformation (CCT) diagram. Temperature distribution profile of the hot strip coil has been determined by using finite volume method (FVM) vis-à-vis finite difference method (FDM). It has been demonstrated that FVM offer greater computational reliability in estimation of contact pressure distribution and hence the temperature distribution for curved and irregular profiles, owing to the flexibility in selection of grid geometry and discrete point position, Moreover, use of finite volume concept allows enforcing the conservation of mass, momentum and energy, leading to enhanced accuracy of prediction.

Keywords: simulation, modeling, thermal analysis, coil cooling, contact pressure, finite volume method

Procedia PDF Downloads 473

Authors: Piotr Muzyk, Beata Morawiec, Mariusz Opara, Andrzej Tomasik, Brygida Przywara-Chowaniec, Wojciech Jachec, Ewa Nowalany-Kozielska, Damian Kawecki

Abstract:

Background: Coronary bifurcation is one of the most complex lesion in patients with coronary ar-tery disease. Provisional T-stenting is currently one of the recommended techniques. The aim was to assess optimal methods of treatment in the era of drug-eluting stents (DES). Methods: The regis-try consisted of data from 1916 patients treated with coronary percutaneous interventions (PCI) using either first- or second-generation DES. Patients with bifurcation lesion entered the analysis. Major adverse cardiac and cardiovascular events (MACCE) were assessed at one year of follow-up and comprised of death, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), repeated PCI (re-PCI) of target ves-sel and stroke. Results: Of 1916 registry patients, 204 patients (11%) were diagnosed with bifurcation lesion >50% and entered the analysis. The most commonly used technique was provi-sional T-stenting (141 patients, 69%). Optimization with kissing-balloons technique was performed in 45 patients (22%). In 59 patients (29%) second-generation DES was implanted, while in 112 pa-tients (55%), first-generation DES was used. In 33 patients (16%) both types of DES were used. The procedure success rate (TIMI 3 flow) was achieved in 98% of patients. In one-year follow-up, there were 39 MACCE (19%) (9 deaths, 17 AMI, 16 re-PCI and 5 strokes). Provisional T-stenting resulted in similar rate of MACCE to other techniques (16% vs. 5%, p=0.27) and similar occurrence of re-PCI (6% vs. 2%, p=0.78). The results of post-PCI kissing-balloon technique gave equal out-comes with 3% vs. 16% of MACCE in patients in whom no optimization technique was used (p=0.39). The type of implanted DES (second- vs. first-generation) had no influence on MACCE (4% vs 14%, respectively, p=0.12) and re-PCI (1.7% vs. 51% patients, respectively, p=0.28). Con-clusions: The treatment of bifurcation lesions with PCI represent high-risk procedures with high rate of MACCE. Stenting technique, optimization of PCI and the generation of implanted stent should be personalized for each case to balance risk of the procedure. In this setting, the operator experience might be the factor of better outcome, which should be further investigated.

Keywords: coronary bifurcation, drug eluting stents, long-term follow-up, percutaneous coronary interventions

Procedia PDF Downloads 204

Authors: M.Rüştü Karaman, İsmail İşeri, Kadir Saltalı, A.Reşit Brohi, Ayhan Horuz, Mümin Dizman

Abstract:

Considerable relations has recently been given to the environmental hazardous caused by agricultural chemicals such as excess fertilizers. In this study, a neural network approach was investigated in the prediction of potential nitrate pollution across different land-use patterns by using a feedforward multilayered computer model of artificial neural network (ANN) with proper training. Periodical concentrations of some anions, especially nitrate (NO3-), and cations were also detected in drainage waters collected from the drain pipes placed in irrigated tomato field, unirrigated wheat field, fallow and pasture lands. The soil samples were collected from the irrigated tomato field and unirrigated wheat field on a grid system with 20 m x 20 m intervals. Site specific nitrate concentrations in the soil samples were measured for ANN based simulation of nitrate leaching potential from the land profiles. In the application of ANN model, a multi layered feedforward was evaluated, and data sets regarding with training, validation and testing containing the measured soil nitrate values were estimated based on spatial variability. As a result of the testing values, while the optimal structures of 2-15-1 was obtained (R2= 0.96, P < 0.01) for unirrigated field, the optimal structures of 2-10-1 was obtained (R2= 0.96, P < 0.01) for irrigated field. The results showed that the ANN model could be successfully used in prediction of the potential leaching levels of nitrate, based on different land use patterns. However, for the most suitable results, the model should be calibrated by training according to different NN structures depending on site specific soil parameters and varied agricultural managements.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, ANN, drainage water, nitrate pollution

Procedia PDF Downloads 310

Authors: Mont Kumpugdee-Vollrath, Khaled Abdallah

Abstract:

Liposomes and pegylated liposomes were widely used as drug delivery system in pharmaceutical field since a long time. However, in the former time, polyethylene glycol (PEG) was connected into phospholipid after the liposomes were already prepared. In this paper, we intend to study the possibility of applying phospholipids which already connected with PEG and then they were used to prepare liposomes. The model drug resveratrol was used because it can be applied against different diseases. Cholesterol was applied to stabilize the membrane of liposomes. The thin film technique in a laboratory scale was a preparation method. The liposomes were then characterized by nanoparticle tracking analysis (NTA), photon correlation spectroscopy (PCS) and light microscopic techniques. The stable liposomes can be produced and the particle sizes after filtration were in nanometers. The 2- and 3-chains-PEG-phospholipid (PL) caused in smaller particle size than the 4-chains-PEG-PL. Liposomes from PL 90G and cholesterol were stable during storage at 8 °C of 56 days because the particle sizes measured by PCS were almost not changed. There was almost no leakage of resveratrol from liposomes PL 90G with cholesterol after diffusion test in dialysis tube for 28 days. All liposomes showed the sustained release during measuring time of 270 min. The maximum release amount of 16-20% was detected with liposomes from 2- and 3-chains-PEG-PL. The other liposomes gave max. release amount of resveratrol only of 10%. The release kinetic can be explained by Korsmeyer-Peppas equation. 

Keywords: liposome, NTA, resveratrol, pegylation, cholesterol

Procedia PDF Downloads 185

Authors: Sam Yurdakul, Nick Baverstock, Jim Mills

Abstract:

TDT 064 (FLEXISEQ®) is a drug-free gel used to treat osteoarthritis (OA)-associated pain and joint stiffness. It contains ultra-deformable phospholipid Sequessome™ vesicles, which can pass through the skin barrier intact. In six randomized OA studies, topical TDT 064 was well tolerated and improved joint pain, physical function and stiffness. In the largest study, these TDT 064-mediated effects were statistically significantly greater than oral placebo and equivalent to celecoxib. To understand the therapeutic effects of TDT 064, we investigated the localisation of the drug-free vesicles within rat synovial joints. TDT 064 containing DiO-labelled Sequessome™ vesicles was applied to the knees of four 6-week-old CD® hairless rats (10 mg/kg/ joint), 2–3 times/day, for 3 days (representing the recommended clinical dose). Eighteen hours later, the animals and one untreated control were sacrificed, and the knee joints isolated, flash frozen and embedded in Acrytol Mounting Media™. Approximately 15 sections (10 µm) from each joint were analysed by fluorescence microscopy. To investigate whether the localisation of DiO fluorescence was associated with intact vesicles, an anti-PEG monoclonal antibody (mAb) was used to detect Tween, a constituent of Sequessome™ vesicles. Sections were visualized at 484 nm (DiO) and 647 nm (anti-PEG mAb) and analysed using inForm 1.4 (Perkin Elmer, Inc.). Significant fluorescence was observed at 484 nm in sections from TDT 064-treated animals. No non-specific fluorescence was observed in control sections. Fluorescence was detected as discrete vesicles on the cartilage surfaces, inside the cartilaginous matrix and within the synovial space. The number of DiO-labelled vesicles in multiple fields of view was consistent and >100 in sections from four different treated knees. DiO and anti-PEG mAb co-localised within the collagenous tissues in four different joint sections. Under higher magnification (40x), vesicles were seen in the intercellular spaces of the synovial joint tissue, but no fluorescence was seen inside cells. These data suggest that the phospholipid vesicles in TDT 064 localize at the surface of the joint cartilage; these vesicles may therefore be supplementing the phospholipid deficiency reported in OA and acting as a biolubricant within the synovial joint.

Keywords: joint pain, osteoarthritis, phospholipid vesicles, TDT 064

Procedia PDF Downloads 443

Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

Abstract:

Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 309

Authors: Si Jack Chong, Chew Theng Yap, Wan Loong James Mok

Abstract:

Introduction: Regional burn centres face the spectra of introduced multi-drug resistant organisms (MDRO) from transfer patients resident in MDRO endemic countries. MDRO can cause severe nosocomial infection, which in massive burn patients, will lead to greater morbidity and mortality and strain the institution financially. We aim to highlight 4 key measures that have effectively prevented transmission of imported MDRO. Methods: A case of Candida auris (C. auris) from a massive burn patient transferred from an MDRO endemic country is used to illustrate the measures. C. auris is a globally emerging multi-drug resistant fungal pathogen causing nosocomial transmission. Results: Infection control measures used to mitigate the risk of outbreak from transfer cases are: (1) Multidisciplinary team approach involving Infection Control and Infectious Disease specialists early to ensure appropriate antibiotics use and implementation of barrier measures, (2) aseptic procedures for dressing change with strict isolation and donning of personal protective equipment in the ward, (3) early screening of massive burn patient from MDRO endemic region, (4) hydrogen peroxide vaporization terminal cleaning for operating theatres and rooms. Conclusion: The prevalence of air travel and international transfer to regional burn centres will need effective infection control measures to reduce the risk of transmission from imported massive burn patients. In our centre, we have effectively implemented 4 measures which have reduced the risks of local contamination. We share a recent case report to illustrate successful management of a potential MDRO outbreak resulting from transfer of massive burn patient resident in an MDRO endemic area.

Keywords: burns, burn unit, cross infection, infection control

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: S. L. J. Tan, N. Billa, C. J. Roberts

Abstract:

Oral delivery of amphotericin B (AmpB) potentially eliminates constraints and side effects associated with intravenous administration, but remains challenging due to the physicochemical properties of the drug such that it results in meagre bioavailability (0.3%). In an advanced formulation, 1) nanostructured lipid carriers (NLC) were formulated as they can accommodate higher levels of cargoes and restrict drug expulsion and 2) a mucoadhesion feature was incorporated so as to impart sluggish transit of the NLC along the gastrointestinal tract and hence, maximize uptake and improve bioavailability of AmpB. The AmpB-loaded NLC formulation was successfully formulated via high shear homogenisation and ultrasonication. A chitosan coating was adsorbed onto the formed NLC. Physical properties of the formulations; particle size, zeta potential, encapsulation efficiency (%EE), aggregation states and mucoadhesion as well as the effect of the variable pH on the integrity of the formulations were examined. The particle size of the freshly prepared AmpB-loaded NLC was 163.1 ± 0.7 nm, with a negative surface charge and remained essentially stable over 120 days. Adsorption of chitosan caused a significant increase in particle size to 348.0 ± 12 nm with the zeta potential change towards positivity. Interestingly, the chitosan-coated AmpB-loaded NLC (ChiAmpB NLC) showed significant decrease in particle size upon storage, suggesting 'anti-Ostwald' ripening effect. AmpB-loaded NLC formulation showed %EE of 94.3 ± 0.02 % and incorporation of chitosan increased the %EE significantly, to 99.3 ± 0.15 %. This suggests that the addition of chitosan renders stability to the NLC formulation, interacting with the anionic segment of the NLC and preventing the drug leakage. AmpB in both NLC and ChiAmpB NLC showed polyaggregation which is the non-toxic conformation. The mucoadhesiveness of the ChiAmpB NLC formulation was observed in both acidic pH (pH 5.8) and near-neutral pH (pH 6.8) conditions as opposed to AmpB-loaded NLC formulation. Hence, the incorporation of chitosan into the NLC formulation did not only impart mucoadhesive property but also protected against the expulsion of AmpB which makes it well-primed as a potential oral delivery system for AmpB.

Keywords: Amphotericin B, mucoadhesion, nanostructured lipid carriers, oral delivery

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: M. R. Vijayakumar, Sanjay Kumar Singh, Lakshmi, Hithesh Dewangan, Sanjay Singh

Abstract:

Trans resveratrol (RES) is a natural molecule proved for cancer preventive and therapeutic activities devoid of any potential side effects. However, the therapeutic application of RES in disease management is limited because of its rapid elimination from blood circulation thereby low biological half life in mammals. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to enhance the circulation as well as therapeutic efficacy using PEGylated liposomes. D-α-tocopheryl polyethylene glycol 1000 succinate (vitamin E TPGS) is applied as steric surface decorating agent to prepare RES liposomes by thin film hydration method. The prepared nanoparticles were evaluated by various state of the art techniques such as dynamic light scattering (DLS) technique for particle size and zeta potential, TEM for shape, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) for interaction analysis and XRD for crystalline changes of drug. Encapsulation efficiency and invitro drug release were determined by dialysis bag method. Cancer cell viability studies were performed by MTT assay, respectively. Pharmacokinetic studies were performed in sprague dawley rats. The prepared liposomes were found to be spherical in shape. Particle size and zeta potential of prepared formulations varied from 64.5±3.16 to 262.3±7.45 nm and -2.1 to 1.76 mV, respectively. DSC study revealed absence of potential interaction. XRD study revealed presence of amorphous form in liposomes. Entrapment efficiency was found to be 87.45±2.14 % and the drug release was found to be controlled up to 24 hours. Minimized MEC in MTT assay and tremendous enhancement in circulation time of RES PEGylated liposomes than its pristine form revealed that the stearic stabilized PEGylated liposomes can be an alternative tool to commercialize this molecule for chemopreventive and therapeutic applications in cancer.

Keywords: trans resveratrol, cancer nanotechnology, long circulating liposomes, bioavailability enhancement, liposomes for cancer therapy, PEGylated liposomes

Procedia PDF Downloads 589

Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović

Abstract:

Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector auto-regressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.

Keywords: Nelson-Siegel Model, neural networks, Svensson Model, vector autoregressive model, yield curve

Procedia PDF Downloads 334

Authors: Prateeksha Mahamallik, Anjali Pal

Abstract:

In the present study, Co(II)-adsolubilized surfactant modified alumina (SMA) was prepared, and methylene blue (MB) degradation was carried out on Co-SMA surface by visible light photo-Fenton process. The entire reaction proceeded on solid surface as MB was embedded on Co-SMA surface. The reaction followed zero order kinetics. Response surface methodology (RSM) and artificial neural network (ANN) were used for modeling the decolorization of MB by photo-Fenton process as a function of dose of Co-SMA (10, 20 and 30 g/L), initial concentration of MB (10, 20 and 30 mg/L), concentration of H2O2 (174.4, 348.8 and 523.2 mM) and reaction time (30, 45 and 60 min). The prediction capabilities of both the methodologies (RSM and ANN) were compared on the basis of correlation coefficient (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), standard error of prediction (SEP), relative percent deviation (RPD). Due to lower value of RMSE (1.27), SEP (2.06) and RPD (1.17) and higher value of R2 (0.9966), ANN was proved to be more accurate than RSM in order to predict decolorization efficiency.

Keywords: adsolubilization, artificial neural network, methylene blue, photo-fenton process, response surface methodology

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: Tayyaba Zahra, Shehla Gul Bokhari, Asim Khalid Mahmood, Raheela Akhtar, Khizar Matloob

Abstract:

In Pakistan, dogs are commonly infested with ticks, especially in summers, causing not only dermatological issues but also systemic problems. Persistence of tick infestation often leads to heavy losses. Different acaricides are locally available with variable efficacy; however, recurrence of infestation is commonly reported. The present study was thus designed to compare the efficacy of a novel drug Fluralaner and conventionally used Ivermectin against tick infestation. Dogs positive for tick infestation were randomly divided into 2 groups viz, Groups A and B having 8 dogs each. Ticks were enumerated manually from the whole body of dogs at day 0 before the administration of drugs Dogs in Group A were treated with Fluralaner at day 0, and dogs in Group B were treated with Ivermectin. Post-treatment, ticks were counted again at days 7, 14, 21, 28, and 35. At day 07 of the study, no tick was found on the dogs treated with Fluralaner, while many ticks were present on the dogs treated with Ivermectin showing an efficacy up to 50%. On the consecutive follow-up evaluations, similar results were found for Fluralaner while the efficacy of Ivermectin was further reduced to less than 50%. Furthermore, Fluralaner treated dogs had better RBC counts, PCV, Hgb concentration, LFTs, RFTs post-treatment than the dogs treated with Ivermectin. Statistically, oral Fluralaner proved a more effective drug (P≤0.05)than oral Ivermectin against tick infestation in dogs.

Keywords: fluralaner, ivermectin, dogs, tick infestations

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: Jackson Ishara, Ariel Buzera, Gustave N. Mushagalusa, Ahmed R. A. Hammam, Judith Munga, Paul Karanja, John Kinyuru

Abstract:

Numerous mushroom bioactive metabolites, including polysaccharides, eritadenine, lignin, chitosan, mevinolin, and astrakurkurone have been studied in life-threatening conditions and diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular, hypertension, cancer, DNA damage, hypercholesterolemia, and obesity attempting to identify natural therapies. These bioactive metabolites have shown potential as antiviral and immune system strengthener natural agents through diverse cellular and physiological pathways modulation with no toxicity evidence, widely available, and affordable. In light of the emerging literature, this paper compiles the most recent information describing the molecular mechanisms that underlie the nutraceutical potentials of these mushroom metabolites suggesting their effectiveness if combined with existing drug therapies. The findings raise hope that these mushroom bioactive metabolites may be utilized as natural therapies considering their therapeutic potential while anticipating further research designing clinical trials and developing new drug therapies while encouraging their consumption as a natural adjuvant in preventing and controlling life-threatening conditions and diseases.

Keywords: bioactive metabolites, food functionality, health-threatening conditions, mushrooms, nutraceutical

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Md. Alauddin, Md. Ruhul Amin, Md. Omar Faruque, Muhammad Ali Siddiquee, Zakir Hossain Howlader, Mohammad Asaduzzaman

Abstract:

Diabetes and hypertension are the major lifestyle related diseases. The α-amylase and angiotensin converting enzymes (ACE) are the key enzymes that regulate diabetes and hypertension. The aim was to develop a drug for the treatment of diabetes and hypertension. The Rice Bran (RB) sample (Oryza sativa; BRRI-Dhan-84) was collected from the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), and rice bran proteins were isolated and hydrolyzed by hydrolyzing enzyme alcalase and trypsin. In vivo experiment suggested that rice bran bioactives has an effect on regulating the expression of several key gluconeogenesis and lipogenesis-regulating genes, such as glucose-6-phosphatase, phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase, and fatty acid synthase. The above genes have a connection of regulating the glucose level, lipids profile as well as act as an anti-inflammatory agent. A molecular docking, bioinformatics and in vitro experiments were performed. We found rice bran protein hydrolysates significantly (<0.05) influence the peptide concentration in the case of trypsin, alcalase, and (trypsin + alcalase) digestion. The in vitro analysis found that protein hydrolysate significantly (<0.05) reduced diabetic and hypertension as well as oxidative stress. A molecular docking study showed that the YY and IP peptide have a significantly strong binding affinity to the active site of the ACE enzyme and α-amylase with -7.8Kcal/mol and -6.2Kcal/mol, respectively. The Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation and Swiss ADME data analysis showed that less toxicity risk, good physicochemical properties, pharmacokinetics, and drug-likeness with drug scores 0.45 and 0.55 of YY and IP peptides, respectively. Thus, rice bran bioactive could be a good candidate for the treatment of diabetes and hypertension.

Keywords: anti-hypertensive and anti-hyperglycemic, anti-oxidative, bioinformatics, in vitro study, rice bran proteins and peptides

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Amber Dhoot, Tarush Gupta, Andrea Gurr, William Jenkins, Sandro Pietrunti, Alexis Tang

Abstract:

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has driven pharmacovigilance towards a new paradigm. Nowadays, more people than ever before are recognising and reporting adverse reactions from medications, treatments, and vaccines. In the modern era, with over 3.8 billion users, social media has become the most accessible medium for people to voice their opinions and so provides an opportunity to engage with more patient-centric and accessible pharmacovigilance. However, the pharmaceutical industry has been slow to incorporate social media into its modern pharmacovigilance strategy. This project aims to make social media a more effective tool in pharmacovigilance, and so reduce drug costs, improve drug safety and improve patient outcomes. This will be achieved by firstly uncovering and categorising the barriers facing the widespread adoption of social media in pharmacovigilance. Following this, the potential opportunities of social media will be explored. We will then propose realistic, practical recommendations to make social media a more effective tool for pharmacovigilance. Methodology: A comprehensive systematic literature review was conducted to produce a categorised summary of these barriers. This was followed by conducting 11 semi-structured interviews with pharmacovigilance experts to confirm the literature review findings whilst also exploring the unpublished and real-life challenges faced by those in the pharmaceutical industry. Finally, a survey of the general public (n = 112) ascertained public knowledge, perception, and opinion regarding the use of their social media data for pharmacovigilance purposes. This project stands out by offering perspectives from the public and pharmaceutical industry that fill the research gaps identified in the literature review. Results: Our results gave rise to several key analysis points. Firstly, inadequacies of current Natural Language Processing algorithms hinder effective pharmacovigilance data extraction from social media, and where data extraction is possible, there are significant questions over its quality. Social media also contains a variety of biases towards common drugs, mild adverse drug reactions, and the younger generation. Additionally, outdated regulations for social media pharmacovigilance do not align with new, modern General Data Protection Regulations (GDPR), creating ethical ambiguity about data privacy and level of access. This leads to an underlying mindset of avoidance within the pharmaceutical industry, as firms are disincentivised by the legal, financial, and reputational risks associated with breaking ambiguous regulations. Conclusion: Our project uncovered several barriers that prevent effective pharmacovigilance on social media. As such, social media should be used to complement traditional sources of pharmacovigilance rather than as a sole source of pharmacovigilance data. However, this project adds further value by proposing five practical recommendations that improve the effectiveness of social media pharmacovigilance. These include: prioritising health-orientated social media; improving technical capabilities through investment and strategic partnerships; setting clear regulatory guidelines using multi-stakeholder processes; creating an adverse drug reaction reporting interface inbuilt into social media platforms; and, finally, developing educational campaigns to raise awareness of the use of social media in pharmacovigilance. Implementation of these recommendations would speed up the efficient, ethical, and systematic adoption of social media in pharmacovigilance.

Keywords: adverse drug reaction, drug safety, pharmacovigilance, social media

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: S. Reshma Reghu, Shiburaj Sugathan, T. G. Nandu, K. B. Ramesh Kumar, Mathew Dan

Abstract:

Bacterial diseases are considered to be one of the most prevalent health hazards in the developing world and many bacteria are becoming resistant to existing antibiotics making the treatment ineffective. Thus, it is necessary to find novel targets and develop new antibacterial drugs with a novel mechanism of action. The process of bacterial cell division is a novel and attractive target for new antibacterial drug discovery. FtsZ, a homolog of eukaryotic tubulin, is the major protein of the bacterial cell division machinery and is considered as an important antibacterial drug target. Zingiberaceae, the Ginger family consists of aromatic herbs with creeping rhizomes. Many of these plants have antimicrobial properties.This study aimed to determine the anti-bacterial activity of selected Zingiberaceous plants by targeting bacterial cell division protein, FtsZ. Essential oils and methanol extracts of Amomum ghaticum, Alpinia galanga, Kaempferia galanga, K. rotunda, and Zingiber officinale were tested to find its antibacterial efficiency using disc diffusion method against authentic bacterial strains obtained from MTCC (India). Essential oil isolated from A.galanga and Z.officinale were further assayed for FtsZ inhibition assay following non-radioactive malachite green-phosphomolybdate assay using E. coli FtsZ protein obtained from Cytoskelton Inc., USA. Z.officinale essential oil possess FtsZ inhibitory property. A molecular docking study was conducted with the known bioactive compounds of Z. officinale as ligands with the E. coli FtsZ protein homology model. Some of the major constituents of this plant like catechin, epicatechin, and gingerol possess agreeable docking scores. The results of this study revealed that several chemical constituents in Ginger plants can be utilised as potential source of antibacterial activity and it can warrant further investigation through drug discovery studies.

Keywords: antibacterial, FtsZ, zingiberaceae, docking

Procedia PDF Downloads 472

Authors: Moustafa Osman

Abstract:

Modeling of air pollutants from the accidental release is performed for quantifying the impact of industrial facilities into the ambient air. The mathematical methods are requiring for the prediction of the accidental scenario in probability of failure-safe mode and analysis consequences to quantify the environmental damage upon human health. The initial statement of mitigation plan is supporting implementation during production and maintenance periods. In a number of mathematical methods, the flow rate at which gaseous and liquid pollutants might be accidentally released is determined from various types in term of point, line and area sources. These emissions are integrated meteorological conditions in simplified stability parameters to compare dispersion coefficients from non-continuous air pollution plumes. The differences are reflected in concentrations levels and greenhouse effect to transport the parcel load in both urban and rural areas. This research reveals that the elevation effect nearby buildings with other structure is higher 5 times more than open terrains. These results are agreed with Sutton suggestion for dispersion coefficients in different stability classes.

Keywords: air pollutants, dispersion modeling, GIS, health effect, urban planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 374

Authors: Sanja Pfeifer, Nataša Šarlija, Marina Jeger, Ana Bilandžić

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to explore the different facets of growth among micro, small and medium-sized firms in Croatia and to analyze the differences between models designed for all micro, small and medium-sized firms and those in creative industries. Three growth prediction models were designed and tested using the growth of sales, employment and assets of the company as dependent variables. The key drivers of sales growth are: prudent use of cash, industry affiliation and higher share of intangible assets. Growth of assets depends on retained profits, internal and external sources of financing, as well as industry affiliation. Growth in employment is closely related to sources of financing, in particular, debt and it occurs less frequently than growth in sales and assets. The findings confirm the assumption that growth strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in creative industries have specific differences in comparison to SMEs in general. Interestingly, only 2.2% of growing enterprises achieve growth in employment, assets and sales simultaneously.

Keywords: creative industries, growth prediction model, growth determinants, growth measures

Procedia PDF Downloads 332

Authors: Shekoufeh Behdad, Amirhossein Yadegari, Leila Ghodrati, Saman Yadegari

Abstract:

Context: Preoperative anxiety is a common psychological reaction experienced by all patients undergoing surgery. It can have negative effects on the patient's well-being and even impact surgical outcomes. Therefore, finding effective interventions to reduce preoperative anxiety is important in improving patient care. Research Aim: The aim of this study is to compare the effects of oral administration of zaleplon (5 mg) and alprazolam (0.5 mg) on preoperative anxiety levels in women undergoing gynecological abdominal surgery. Methodology: This study is a double-blind, randomized clinical trial conducted after receiving approval from the university's ethics committee and obtaining written informed consent from the patients. The night before the surgery, patients were randomly assigned to receive either 0.5 mg of alprazolam or 5 mg of zaleplon orally. Anxiety levels, measured using a 10-cm visual analog scale, and hemodynamic variables (blood pressure and heart rate) were assessed before drug administration and on the morning of the operation after the patient entered the pre-operation room. Findings: The study found that there were no significant differences in mean anxiety levels or hemodynamic variables before and after administration of either drug in both groups (P value > 0.05). This suggests that both 0.5 mg of alprazolam and 5 mg of zaleplon effectively reduce preoperative anxiety in women undergoing abdominal surgery without serious side effects. Theoretical Importance: This study contributes to the understanding of the effectiveness of alprazolam and zaleplon in reducing preoperative anxiety. It adds to the existing literature on pharmacological interventions for anxiety management, specifically in the context of gynecological abdominal surgery. Data Collection: Data for this study were collected through the assessment of anxiety levels using a visual analog scale and measuring hemodynamic variables, including systolic, diastolic, and mean arterial blood pressures, as well as heart rate. These measurements were taken before drug administration and on the morning of the surgery. Analysis Procedures: Statistical analysis was performed to compare the mean anxiety levels and hemodynamic variables before and after drug administration in the two groups. The significance of the differences was determined using appropriate statistical tests. Questions Addressed: This study aimed to answer the question of whether there are differences in the effects of alprazolam and zaleplon on preoperative anxiety levels in women undergoing gynecological abdominal surgery. Conclusion: The oral administration of both 0.5 mg of alprazolam and 5 mg of zaleplon the night before surgery effectively reduces preoperative anxiety in women undergoing abdominal surgery. These findings have important implications for the management of preoperative anxiety and can contribute to improving the overall surgical experience for patients.

Keywords: zaleplon, alprazolam, premedication, abdominal surgery

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Deepika Christopher, Garima Anand

Abstract:

To determine the best model for churn prediction in the telecom industry, this paper compares 11 machine learning algorithms, namely Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Decision Tree, XGBoost, LightGBM, Cat Boost, AdaBoost, Extra Trees, Deep Neural Network, and Hybrid Model (MLPClassifier). It also aims to pinpoint the top three factors that lead to customer churn and conducts customer segmentation to identify vulnerable groups. According to the data, the Logistic Regression model performs the best, with an F1 score of 0.6215, 81.76% accuracy, 68.95% precision, and 56.57% recall. The top three attributes that cause churn are found to be tenure, Internet Service Fiber optic, and Internet Service DSL; conversely, the top three models in this article that perform the best are Logistic Regression, Deep Neural Network, and AdaBoost. The K means algorithm is applied to establish and analyze four different customer clusters. This study has effectively identified customers that are at risk of churn and may be utilized to develop and execute strategies that lower customer attrition.

Keywords: attrition, retention, predictive modeling, customer segmentation, telecommunications

Procedia PDF Downloads 57

Authors: Housein Deli, Loui Al-Shrouf, Hammoud Al Joumaa, Mohieddine Jelali

Abstract:

When forming metallic materials, fluctuations in material properties, process conditions, and wear lead to deviations in the component geometry. Several hundred features sometimes need to be measured, especially in the case of functional and safety-relevant components. These can only be measured offline due to the large number of features and the accuracy requirements. The risk of producing components outside the tolerances is minimized but not eliminated by the statistical evaluation of process capability and control measurements. The inspection intervals are based on the acceptable risk and are at the expense of productivity but remain reactive and, in some cases, considerably delayed. Due to the considerable progress made in the field of condition monitoring and measurement technology, permanently installed sensor systems in combination with machine learning and artificial intelligence, in particular, offer the potential to independently derive forecasts for component geometry and thus eliminate the risk of defective products - actively and preventively. The reliability of forecasts depends on the quality, completeness, and timeliness of the data. Measuring all geometric characteristics is neither sensible nor technically possible. This paper, therefore, uses the example of car seat rail production to discuss the necessary first step of feature selection and reduction by correlation analysis, as otherwise, it would not be possible to forecast components in real-time and inline. Four different car seat rails with an average of 130 features were selected and measured using a coordinate measuring machine (CMM). The run of such measuring programs alone takes up to 20 minutes. In practice, this results in the risk of faulty production of at least 2000 components that have to be sorted or scrapped if the measurement results are negative. Over a period of 2 months, all measurement data (> 200 measurements/ variant) was collected and evaluated using correlation analysis. As part of this study, the number of characteristics to be measured for all 6 car seat rail variants was reduced by over 80%. Specifically, direct correlations for almost 100 characteristics were proven for an average of 125 characteristics for 4 different products. A further 10 features correlate via indirect relationships so that the number of features required for a prediction could be reduced to less than 20. A correlation factor >0.8 was assumed for all correlations.

Keywords: long-term SHM, condition monitoring, machine learning, correlation analysis, component prediction, wear prediction, regressions analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 49

Authors: Xia Chen, Yulan Wang

Abstract:

purpose: To compare the accuracy of Haigis, SRK/T, T2, Holladay 1, Hoffer Q, Barrett Universal II, Emmetropia Verifying Optical (EVO) and Kane for intraocular lens power calculation in patients with axial length (AL) ≥ 28 mm. Methods: In this retrospective single-center study, 50 eyes of 41 patients with AL ≥ 28 mm that underwent uneventful cataract surgery were enrolled. The actual postoperative refractive results were compared to the predicted refraction calculated with different formulas (Haigis, SRK/T, T2, Holladay 1, Hoffer Q, Barrett Universal II, EVO and Kane). The mean absolute prediction errors (MAE) 1 month postoperatively were compared. Results: The MAE of different formulas were as follows: Haigis (0.509), SRK/T (0.705), T2 (0.999), Holladay 1 (0.714), Hoffer Q (0.583), Barrett Universal II (0.552), EVO (0.463) and Kane (0.441). No significant difference was found among the different formulas (P = .122). The Kane and EVO formulas achieved the lowest level of mean prediction error (PE) and median absolute error (MedAE) (p < 0.05). Conclusion: The Kane and EVO formulas had a better success rate than others in predicting IOL power in high myopic eyes with AL longer than 28 mm in this study.

Keywords: cataract, power calculation formulas, intraocular lens, long axial length

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Y. Khulief, S. Bashmal, S. Said, D. Al-Otaibi, K. Mansour

Abstract:

The prediction of flow rates at which the vibration-induced instability takes place in tubular heat exchangers due to cross-flow is of major importance to the performance and service life of such equipment. In this paper, the semi-analytical model for square tube arrays was extended and utilized to study the triangular tube patterns. A laboratory test rig with instrumented test section is used to measure the fluidelastic coefficients to be used for tuning the mathematical model. The test section can be made of any bundle pattern. In this study, two test sections were constructed for both the normal triangular and the rotated triangular tube arrays. The developed scheme is utilized in predicting the onset of flow-induced instability in the two triangular tube arrays. The results are compared to those obtained for two other bundle configurations. The results of the four different tube patterns are viewed in the light of TEMA predictions. The comparison demonstrated that TEMA guidelines are more conservative in all configurations considered

Keywords: fluid-structure interaction, cross-flow, heat exchangers,

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Yaw Opoku-Damoah, Run Zhang, Hang Thu Ta, Zhi Ping Xu

Abstract:

Gas therapy is still at an early stage of research and development. Even though most gasotransmitters have proven their therapeutic potential, their handling, delivery, and controlled release have been extremely challenging. This research work employs a versatile nanosystem that is capable of delivering a gasotransmitter in the form of a photo-responsive carbon monoxide-releasing molecule (CORM) for targeted cancer therapy. The therapeutic action was mediated by upconversion nanoparticles (UCNPs) designed to transfer bio-friendly low energy near-infrared (NIR) light to ultraviolet (UV) light capable of triggering carbon monoxide (CO) from a water-soluble amphiphilic manganese carbonyl complex CORM incorporated into a carefully designed lipid drug delivery system. Herein, gaseous CO that plays a role as a gasotransmitter with cytotoxic and homeostatic properties was investigated to instigate cellular apoptosis. After successfully synthesizing the drug delivery system, the ability of the system to encapsulate and mediate the sustained release of CO after light excitation was demonstrated. CO fluorescence probe (COFP) was successfully employed to determine the in vitro drug release profile upon NIR light irradiation. The uptake of nanoparticles enhanced by folates and its receptor interaction was also studied for cellular uptake purposes. The anticancer potential of the final lipid nanoparticle Lipid/UCNPs/CORM/FA (LUCF) was also determined by cell viability assay. Intracellular CO release and a subsequent therapeutic action involving ROS production, mitochondrial damage, and CO production was also evaluated. In all, this current project aims to use in vitro studies to determine the potency and efficiency of a NIR-mediated CORM prodrug delivery system.

Keywords: carbon monoxide-releasing molecule, upconversion nanoparticles, site-specific delivery, amphiphilic manganese carbonyl complex, prodrug delivery system.

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: P. Behera, K. K. Singh, D. K. Saini, M. De

Abstract:

Implementation of 2D materials in the detection of bio analytes is highly advantageous in the field of sensing because of its high surface to volume ratio. We have designed our sensor array with different cationic two-dimensional MoS₂, where surface modification was achieved by cationic thiol ligands with different functionality. Green fluorescent protein (GFP) was chosen as signal transducers for its biocompatibility and anionic nature, which can bind to the cationic MoS₂ surface easily, followed by fluorescence quenching. The addition of bio-analyte to the sensor can decomplex the cationic MoS₂ and GFP conjugates, followed by the regeneration of GFP fluorescence. The fluorescence response pattern belongs to various analytes collected and transformed to linear discriminant analysis (LDA) for classification. At first, 15 different proteins having wide range of molecular weight and isoelectric points were successfully discriminated at 50 nM with detection limit of 1 nM. The sensor system was also executed in biofluids such as serum, where 10 different proteins at 2.5 μM were well separated. After successful discrimination of protein analytes, the sensor array was implemented for bacteria sensing. Six different bacteria were successfully classified at OD = 0.05 with a detection limit corresponding to OD = 0.005. The optimized sensor array was able to classify uropathogens from non-uropathogens in urine medium. Further, the technique was applied for discrimination of bacteria possessing resistance to different types and amounts of drugs. We found out the mechanism of sensing through optical and electrodynamic studies, which indicates the interaction between bacteria with the sensor system was mainly due to electrostatic force of interactions, but the separation of native bacteria from their drug resistant variant was due to Van der Waals forces. There are two ways bacteria can be detected, i.e., through bacterial cells and lysates. The bacterial lysates contain intracellular information and also safe to analysis as it does not contain live cells. Lysates of different drug resistant bacteria were patterned effectively from the native strain. From unknown sample analysis, we found that discrimination of bacterial cells is more sensitive than that of lysates. But the analyst can prefer bacterial lysates over live cells for safer analysis.

Keywords: array-based sensing, drug resistant bacteria, linear discriminant analysis, two-dimensional MoS₂

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: M. R. Dahmardeh Ghaleno, M. Nohtani, S. Khaledi

Abstract:

Flood simulation and prediction is one of the most active research areas in surface water management. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous, and physical model with daily or hourly time step that explains precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave equation which depends on the slope, velocity, and flow route characteristics. Golestan Dam Basin is located in Golestan province in Iran and it is passing over coordinates 55° 16´ 50" to 56° 4´ 25" E and 37° 19´ 39" to 37° 49´ 28"N. The area of the catchment is about 224 km², and elevations in the catchment range from 414 to 2856 m at the outlet, with average slope of 29.78%. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 59% and 80.18%, respectively.

Keywords: watershed simulation, WetSpa, stream flow, flood prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 244