Search results for: Multidirectional Rank Prediction (MDRP)

Authors: Mohammad Ghahramani, Fahimeh Saei Manesh

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Winning a soccer game is based on thorough and deep analysis of the ongoing match. On the other hand, giant gambling companies are in vital need of such analysis to reduce their loss against their customers. In this research work, we perform deep, real-time analysis on every soccer match around the world that distinguishes our work from others by focusing on particular seasons, teams and partial analytics. Our contributions are presented in the platform called “Analyst Masters.” First, we introduce various sources of information available for soccer analysis for teams around the world that helped us record live statistical data and information from more than 50,000 soccer matches a year. Our second and main contribution is to introduce our proposed in-play performance evaluation. The third contribution is developing new features from stable soccer matches. The statistics of soccer matches and their odds before and in-play are considered in the image format versus time including the halftime. Local Binary patterns, (LBP) is then employed to extract features from the image. Our analyses reveal incredibly interesting features and rules if a soccer match has reached enough stability. For example, our “8-minute rule” implies if 'Team A' scores a goal and can maintain the result for at least 8 minutes then the match would end in their favor in a stable match. We could also make accurate predictions before the match of scoring less/more than 2.5 goals. We benefit from the Gradient Boosting Trees, GBT, to extract highly related features. Once the features are selected from this pool of data, the Decision trees decide if the match is stable. A stable match is then passed to a post-processing stage to check its properties such as betters’ and punters’ behavior and its statistical data to issue the prediction. The proposed method was trained using 140,000 soccer matches and tested on more than 100,000 samples achieving 98% accuracy to select stable matches. Our database from 240,000 matches shows that one can get over 20% betting profit per month using Analyst Masters. Such consistent profit outperforms human experts and shows the inefficiency of the betting market. Top soccer tipsters achieve 50% accuracy and 8% monthly profit in average only on regional matches. Both our collected database of more than 240,000 soccer matches from 2012 and our algorithm would greatly benefit coaches and punters to get accurate analysis.

Keywords: soccer, analytics, machine learning, database

Procedia PDF Downloads 227

Authors: Fathi Abid, Bilel Kaffel

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The olive tree, the olive harvest during winter season and the production of olive oil better known by professionals under the name of the crushing operation have interested institutional traders such as olive-oil offices and private companies such as food industry refining and extracting pomace olive oil as well as export-import public and private companies specializing in olive oil. The major problem facing producers of olive oil each winter campaign, contrary to what is expected, it is not whether the harvest will be good or not but whether the sale price will allow them to cover production costs and achieve a reasonable margin of profit or not. These questions are entirely legitimate if we judge by the importance of the issue and the heavy complexity of the uncertainty and competition made tougher by a high level of indebtedness and the experience and expertise of speculators and producers whose objectives are sometimes conflicting. The aim of this paper is to study the formation mechanism of olive oil prices in order to learn about speculators’ behavior and expectations in the market, how they contribute by their industry knowledge and their financial alliances and the size the financial challenge that may be involved for them to build private information hoses globally to take advantage. The methodology used in this paper is based on two stages, in the first stage we study econometrically the formation mechanisms of olive oil price in order to understand the market participant behavior by implementing ARMA, SARMA, GARCH and stochastic diffusion processes models, the second stage is devoted to prediction purposes, we use a combined wavelet- ANN approach. Our main findings indicate that olive oil market participants interact with each other in a way that they promote stylized facts formation. The unstable participant’s behaviors create the volatility clustering, non-linearity dependent and cyclicity phenomena. By imitating each other in some periods of the campaign, different participants contribute to the fat tails observed in the olive oil price distribution. The best prediction model for the olive oil price is based on a back propagation artificial neural network approach with input information based on wavelet decomposition and recent past history.

Keywords: olive oil price, stylized facts, ARMA model, SARMA model, GARCH model, combined wavelet-artificial neural network, continuous-time stochastic volatility mode

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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Construction projects are complex and often subject to significant cost overruns due to the multifaceted nature of the activities involved. Accurate cost estimation is crucial for effective budget planning and resource allocation. Traditional methods for predicting overruns often rely on expert judgment or analysis of historical data, which can be time-consuming, subjective, and may fail to consider important factors. However, with the increasing availability of data from construction projects, machine learning techniques can be leveraged to improve the accuracy of overrun predictions. This study applied machine learning algorithms to enhance the prediction of cost overruns in a case study of a construction project. The methodology involved the development and evaluation of two machine learning models: Random Forest and Neural Networks. Random Forest can handle high-dimensional data, capture complex relationships, and provide feature importance estimates. Neural Networks, particularly Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), are capable of automatically learning and modeling complex, non-linear relationships between input features and the target variable. These models can adapt to new data, reduce human bias, and uncover hidden patterns in the dataset. The findings of this study demonstrate that both Random Forest and Neural Networks can significantly improve the accuracy of cost overrun predictions compared to traditional methods. The Random Forest model also identified key cost drivers and risk factors, such as changes in the scope of work and delays in material delivery, which can inform better project risk management. However, the study acknowledges several limitations. First, the findings are based on a single construction project, which may limit the generalizability of the results to other projects or contexts. Second, the dataset, although comprehensive, may not capture all relevant factors influencing cost overruns, such as external economic conditions or political factors. Third, the study focuses primarily on cost overruns, while schedule overruns are not explicitly addressed. Future research should explore the application of machine learning techniques to a broader range of projects, incorporate additional data sources, and investigate the prediction of both cost and schedule overruns simultaneously.

Keywords: resource allocation, machine learning, optimization, data-driven decision-making, project management

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Authors: Elisa Coraggio, Dawei Han, Weiru Liu, Theo Tryfonas

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Water is one of the most important resources for human society. The world is currently undergoing a wave of urban growth, and pollution problems are of a great impact. Monitoring water quality is a key task for the future of the environment and human species. In recent times, researchers, using Smart Cities technologies are trying to mitigate the problems generated by the population growth in urban areas. The availability of huge amounts of data collected by a pervasive urban IoT can increase the transparency of decision making. Several services have already been implemented in Smart Cities, but more and more services will be involved in the future. Water quality monitoring can successfully be implemented in the urban IoT. The combination of water quality sensors, cloud computing, smart city infrastructure, and IoT technology can lead to a bright future for environmental monitoring. In the past decades, lots of effort has been put on monitoring and predicting water quality using traditional approaches based on manual collection and laboratory-based analysis, which are slow and laborious. The present study proposes a methodology for implementing a water quality prediction model using artificial intelligence techniques and comparing the results obtained with different algorithms. Furthermore, a 3D numerical model will be created using the software D-Water Quality, and simulation results will be used as a training dataset for the artificial intelligence algorithm. This study derives the methodology and demonstrates its implementation based on information and data collected at the floating harbour in the city of Bristol (UK). The city of Bristol is blessed with the Bristol-Is-Open infrastructure that includes Wi-Fi network and virtual machines. It was also named the UK ’s smartest city in 2017.In recent times, researchers, using Smart Cities technologies are trying to mitigate the problems generated by the population growth in urban areas. The availability of huge amounts of data collected by a pervasive urban IoT can increase the transparency of decision making. Several services have already been implemented in Smart Cities, but more and more services will be involved in the future. Water quality monitoring can successfully be implemented in the urban IoT. The combination of water quality sensors, cloud computing, smart city infrastructure, and IoT technology can lead to a bright future for the environment monitoring. In the past decades, lots of effort has been put on monitoring and predicting water quality using traditional approaches based on manual collection and laboratory-based analysis, which are slow and laborious. The present study proposes a new methodology for implementing a water quality prediction model using artificial intelligence techniques and comparing the results obtained with different algorithms. Furthermore, a 3D numerical model will be created using the software D-Water Quality, and simulation results will be used as a training dataset for the Artificial Intelligence algorithm. This study derives the methodology and demonstrate its implementation based on information and data collected at the floating harbour in the city of Bristol (UK). The city of Bristol is blessed with the Bristol-Is-Open infrastructure that includes Wi-Fi network and virtual machines. It was also named the UK ’s smartest city in 2017.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, hydroinformatics, numerical modelling, smart cities, water quality

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Authors: Ghanim A. Bekr

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Project success is what must be done for the project to be acceptable to the client, stakeholders and end-users who will be affected by the project. The study of project success and the critical success factors (CSFs) are the means adopted to improve the effectiveness of project. This research is conducted to make an attempt to identify which variables influence the success of project implementation. This study has selected, through an extensive literature review and interviews, (83) factors categorized in (7) groups that the questionnaire respondents were asked to score. The responses from 66 professionals with an average of 15 years of experience in different types of construction projects in Jordan were collected and analyzed using SPSS and most important factors for success for various success criteria are presented depending on the relative importance index to rank the categories. The research revealed the significant groups of factors are: Client related factors, Contractor’s related factors, Project Manager (PM) related factors, and Project management related factors. In addition the top ten sub factors are: Assertion of the client towards short time of the project, availability of skilled labor, Assertion of the client towards high level of the quality, capability of the client in taking risk, previous experience of the PM in similar projects, previous experience of the contractor in similar projects, decision making by the client/ the client’s representative at the right time, assertion of client towards low cost of project, experience in project management in previous projects, and flow of the information among parties. The results would be helpful to construction project professionals in taking proactive measures for successful completion of construction projects in Jordan.

Keywords: construction projects, critical success factors, Jordan, project success

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Authors: George Eduful, Ebenezer A. Jackson, Kingsford A. Atanga

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This paper investigates the impacts of cable length and capacity of transformer on ferroresonant overvoltage in cable-fed transformers. The study was conducted by simulation using the EMTP RV. Results show that ferroresonance can cause dangerous overvoltages ranging from 2 to 5 per unit. These overvoltages impose stress on insulations of transformers and cables and subsequently result in system failures. Undertaking Basic Multiple Regression Analysis (BMR) on the results obtained, a statistical model was obtained in terms of cable length and transformer capacity. The model is useful for ferroresonant prediction and control in cable-fed transformers.

Keywords: ferroresonance, cable-fed transformers, EMTP RV, regression analysis

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Authors: Mahesh Kothari, K. D. Gharde

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The ANN and fuzzy logic (FL) models were developed to predict the runoff and sediment yield for catchment of Kal river, India using 21 years (1991 to 2011) rainfall and other hydrological data (evaporation, temperature and streamflow lag by one and two day) and 7 years data for sediment yield modelling. The ANN model performance improved with increasing the input vectors. The fuzzy logic model was performing with R value more than 0.95 during developmental stage and validation stage. The comparatively FL model found to be performing well to ANN in prediction of runoff and sediment yield for Kal river.

Keywords: transferred function, sigmoid, backpropagation, membership function, defuzzification

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Authors: Yoshio Kurosawa, Takao Yamaguchi

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High frequency automotive interior noise above 500 Hz considerably affects automotive passenger comfort. To reduce this noise, sound insulation material is often laminated on body panels or interior trim panels. For a more effective noise reduction, the sound reduction properties of this laminated structure need to be estimated. We have developed a new calculate tool that can roughly calculate the sound absorption and insulation properties of laminate structure and handy for designers. In this report, the outline of this tool and an analysis example applied to floor mat are introduced.

Keywords: automobile, acoustics, porous material, transfer matrix method

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Authors: John Kabuba

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The study investigated the implementation of the Neural Network (NN) techniques for prediction of the loading of Cu ions onto clinoptilolite. The experimental design using analysis of variance (ANOVA) was chosen for testing the adequacy of the Neural Network and for optimizing of the effective input parameters (pH, temperature and initial concentration). Feed forward, multi-layer perceptron (MLP) NN successfully tracked the non-linear behavior of the adsorption process versus the input parameters with mean squared error (MSE), correlation coefficient (R) and minimum squared error (MSRE) of 0.102, 0.998 and 0.004 respectively. The results showed that NN modeling techniques could effectively predict and simulate the highly complex system and non-linear process such as ion-exchange.

Keywords: clinoptilolite, loading, modeling, neural network

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Authors: Surasak Khamkhong

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This study aimed to investigate the use of the PISA reading literacy assessment framework (PRF) to improve EFL learners’ critical reading and thinking skills. The sample group, selected by the purposive sampling technique, included 36 EFL learners from a university in Northeastern Thailand. The instruments consisted of 8 PRF-based reading lessons, a 27-item-PRF-based reading test which was used as a pre-test and a post-test, and an attitude questionnaire toward the designed lessons. The statistics used for data analysis were percentage, mean, standard deviation, and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. The results revealed that before the intervention, the students’ English reading proficiency were low as is evident from their low pre-test scores (M=14.00). They did fairly well for the access-and-retrieve questions (M=6.11), but poorly for the integrate-and-interpret questions (M=4.89) and the reflect-and-evaluate questions (M=3.00), respectively. This means that the students could comprehend the texts but they could hardly interpret or evaluate them. However, after the intervention, they could do better as their post-test scores were higher (M=18.01). They could comprehend (M=6.78), interpret (M=6.00) and evaluate (M=5.25) well. This means that after the intervention, their critical reading skills had improved. In terms of their attitude towards the designed lessons and instruction, most students were satisfied with the lessons and the instruction. It may thus be concluded that the designed lessons can help improve students’ English critical reading proficiency and may be used as a teaching model for improving EFL learners’ critical reading skills.

Keywords: second language reading, critical reading and thinking skills, PISA reading literacy framework, English L2 reading development

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Authors: Yagya Murti Aryal, Bipin Adhikari, Pradeep Gyawali

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The Lesser Himalaya zone of Nepal consists of thrusting and folding belts, which play an important role in the sustainable management of groundwater in the Himalayan regions. The study area is located in the Dolakha and Ramechhap Districts of Bagmati Province, Nepal. Geologically, these districts are situated in the Lesser Himalayas and partly encompass the Higher Himalayan rock sequence, which includes low-grade to high-grade metamorphic rocks. Following the Gorkha Earthquake in 2015, numerous springs dried up, and many others are currently experiencing depletion due to the distortion of the natural groundwater flow. The primary objective of this study is to identify potential groundwater areas and determine suitable sites for artificial groundwater recharge. Two distinct statistical approaches were used to develop models: The Frequency Ratio (FR) and Shannon Entropy (SE) methods. The study utilized both primary and secondary datasets and incorporated significant role and controlling factors derived from field works and literature reviews. Field data collection involved spring inventory, soil analysis, lithology assessment, and hydro-geomorphology study. Additionally, slope, aspect, drainage density, and lineament density were extracted from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) using GIS and transformed into thematic layers. For training and validation, 114 springs were divided into a 70/30 ratio, with an equal number of non-spring pixels. After assigning weights to each class based on the two proposed models, a groundwater potential map was generated using GIS, classifying the area into five levels: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The model's outcome reveals that over 41% of the area falls into the low and very low potential categories, while only 30% of the area demonstrates a high probability of groundwater potential. To evaluate model performance, accuracy was assessed using the Area under the Curve (AUC). The success rate AUC values for the FR and SE methods were determined to be 78.73% and 77.09%, respectively. Additionally, the prediction rate AUC values for the FR and SE methods were calculated as 76.31% and 74.08%. The results indicate that the FR model exhibits greater prediction capability compared to the SE model in this case study.

Keywords: groundwater potential mapping, frequency ratio, Shannon’s Entropy, Lesser Himalaya Zone, sustainable groundwater management

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Authors: Jaypee Limueco

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This research focused on the impact of Peer Instruction and PhET Simulations on the level of motivation and Physics anxiety of Grade 9 students. Two groups of students were used in the study. The experimental group involved 65 registered students while the control group has 64 registered students. To determine the level of motivation of students in learning physics, the Physics Motivation Questionnaire was administered. On the other hand, to determine the level of Physics anxiety of the students in each group, Physics Anxiety Rating Scale was used. Peer Instruction supplemented with PhET simulations was implemented in the experimental group while the traditional lecture method was used in the control group. Both instruments were again administered after the implementation of the two different teaching approaches. “Wilcoxon Signed Rank test” was used to test the significant difference between pretest and posttest of each group. “Mann Whitney U” was used to test if significant differences exist between each group before and after instruction. Results showed that there is no significant difference between the level of motivation and anxiety of the experimental and control group before the implementation at p<0.05 significance level. It implies that the students have the same level of motivation and physics anxiety before instruction. However, the results of both tests have significant differences between the groups after instruction. It is also found that there is a significant positive change in the responses of the students in the experimental group while no change was evident on the control. The result of the analysis of the Mann Whitney U shows that the change in the attributes of the students is caused by the treatment. Therefore, it is concluded that Peer Instruction and PhET simulation helped in alleviating motivation of students and minimizing their anxiety towards Physics.

Keywords: anxiety, motivation, peer instruction, PhET simulations

Procedia PDF Downloads 345

Authors: Sifriyani Sifriyani, I Nyoman Budiantara, Sri Haryatmi, Gunardi Gunardi

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East Java Province has a first rank as a province that has the most counties and cities in Indonesia and has the largest population. In 2015, the population reached 38.847.561 million, this figure showed a very high population growth. High population growth is feared to lead to increase the levels of unemployment. In this study, the researchers mapped and modeled the unemployment rate with 6 variables that were supposed to influence. Modeling was done by nonparametric geographically weighted regression methods with truncated spline approach. This method was chosen because spline method is a flexible method, these models tend to look for its own estimation. In this modeling, there were point knots, the point that showed the changes of data. The selection of the optimum point knots was done by selecting the most minimun value of Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). Based on the research, 6 variables were declared to affect the level of unemployment in eastern Java. They were the percentage of population that is educated above high school, the rate of economic growth, the population density, the investment ratio of total labor force, the regional minimum wage and the ratio of the number of big industry and medium scale industry from the work force. The nonparametric geographically weighted regression models with truncated spline approach had a coefficient of determination 98.95% and the value of MSE equal to 0.0047.

Keywords: East Java, nonparametric geographically weighted regression, spatial, spline approach, unemployed rate

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Authors: Zan Azma Nasruddin, Irwan Mazlin, Nor Aziah Daud, Fauziah Redzuan, Fariza Hanis Abdul Razak

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This paper focuses on a machine learning that learn the correct pronunciation of Makhraj Huroofs. Usually, people need to find an expert to pronounce the Huroof accurately. In this study, the researchers have developed a system that is able to learn the selected Huroofs which are ha, tsa, zho, and dza using the Convolutional Neural Network. The researchers present the chosen type of the CNN architecture to make the system that is able to learn the data (Huroofs) as quick as possible and produces high accuracy during the prediction. The researchers have experimented the system to measure the accuracy and the cross entropy in the training process.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, Makhraj recognition, speech recognition, signal processing, tensorflow

Procedia PDF Downloads 325

Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

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This paper presents a study about a nonparametric regression model consisting of a smoothing spline method and a penalized spline regression method. We also compare the techniques used for estimation and prediction of nonparametric regression model. We tried both methods with crude oil prices in dollars per barrel and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index. According to the results, it is concluded that smoothing spline method performs better than that of penalized spline regression method.

Keywords: nonparametric regression model, penalized spline regression method, smoothing spline method, Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)

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Authors: H. Hosseini, B. V. Berdyshev, I. Iskopintsev

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This paper presents a rheological model for producing shape-memory thermoplastic polymers. Shape-memory occurs as a result of internal rearrangement of the structural elements of a polymer. A non-linear viscoelastic model was developed that allows qualitative and quantitative prediction of the stress-strain behavior of shape-memory polymers during heating. This research was done to develop a technique to determine the maximum possible change in size of heat-shrinkable products during heating. The rheological model used in this work was particularly suitable for defining process parameters and constructive parameters of the processing equipment.

Keywords: elastic deformation, heating, shape-memory polymers, stress-strain behavior, viscoelastic model

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Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

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Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

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Authors: U. Chattaraj, K. Dhusiya, M. Raviteja

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Perception reaction time of drivers is an outcome of human thought process, which is vague and approximate in nature and also varies from driver to driver. So, in this study a fuzzy logic based model for prediction of the same has been presented, which seems suitable. The control factors, like, age, experience, intensity of driving of the driver, speed of the vehicle and distance of stimulus have been considered as premise variables in the model, in which the perception reaction time is the consequence variable. Results show that the model is able to explain the impacts of the control factors on perception reaction time properly.

Keywords: driver, fuzzy logic, perception reaction time, premise variable

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Amer A. Hasan, Mehri Igci, Ersin Borazan, Rozhgar A. Khailany, Emine Bayraktar, Ahmet Arslan

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Gastric cancer (GC) has high morbidity and fatality rate in various countries and is still one of the most frequent and deadly diseases. Novel mitogenic and motogenic Gastrokine1 (GKN1) and Gastrokine 2 (GKN2) genes that are highly expressed in the normal stomach epithelium and plays an important role in maintaining the integrity and homeostasis of stomach mucosal epithelial cells. Significant loss of copy number and mRNA transcript of GKN1 and GKN2 gene expression were frequently observed in all types of gastric cancer. In this study, 47 paired samples that were grouped according to the types of gastric cancer and the clinical characteristics of the patients, including gender and average of age were investigated with gene expression analysis and mutation screening by monetering RT-PCR, SSCP and nucleotide sequencing techniques. Both GKN1 and GKN2 genes were observed significantly reduced found by (Wilcoxon signed rank test; p<0.05). As a result of gene screening, no mutation (no different genotype) was detected. It is considered that gene mutations are not the cause of inactivation of gastrokines. In conclusion, the mRNA expression level of GKN1 and GKN2 genes statistically was decreased regardless the gender, age or cancer type of patients. Reduced of gastrokine genes seems to occur at the initial steps of cancer development. In order to understand the investigation between gastric cancer and diagnostic biomarker; further analysis is necessary.

Keywords: gastric cancer, diagnostic biomarker, nucleotide sequencing, semi-quantitative RT-PCR

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Authors: Othoman Elsayah, Naren Gupta, Binsheng Zhang

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The construction sector constitutes one of the most important sectors in the economy of any country. Contractor selection is a critical decision that is undertaken by client organizations and is central to the success of any construction project. Contractor selection (CS) is a process which involves investigating, screening and determining whether candidate contractors have the technical and financial capability to be accepted to formally tender for construction work. The process should be conducted prior to the award of contract, characterized by many factors such as: contactor’s skills, experience on similar projects, track- record in the industry, and financial stability. However, this paper evaluates the current state of knowledge in relation to contractor selection process and demonstrates the findings from the analysis of the data collected from the Delphi questionnaire survey. The survey was conducted with a group of 12 experts working in the Libyan construction industry (LCI). The paper starts by briefly explaining the general outline of the questionnaire including the survey participation rate, the different fields the experts came from, and the business titles of the participants. Then, the paper describes the tests used to determine when the experts had reached consensus. The paper is based on research which aims to develop rank contractor selection criteria with specific application to make construction projects in the Libyan context. The findings of this study will be utilized to establish the scope of work that will be used as part of a PhD research.

Keywords: contractor selection, Libyan construction industry, decision experts, Delphi technique

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Authors: H. Hotait, X. Chiementin, L. Rasolofondraibe

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This paper presents a continuous work to detect the abnormal state in the rolling bearing by studying the vibration signature analysis and calculation of the remaining useful life. To achieve these aims, two methods; the first method is the classification to detect the degradation state by the AOM-OPTICS (Acousto-Optic Modulator) method. The second one is the prediction of the degradation state using least-squares support vector regression and then compared with the linear degradation model. An experimental investigation on ball-bearing was conducted to see the effectiveness of the used method by applying the acquired vibration signals. The proposed model for predicting the state of bearing gives us accurate results with the experimental and numerical data.

Keywords: bearings, automatization, optimization, prognosis, classification, defect detection

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Authors: Omar Boutkhoum, Mohamed Hanine, Abdessadek Bendarag

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Sustainable economic growth is nowadays driving firms to extend toward the adoption of many green supply chain management (GSCM) solutions. However, the evaluation and selection of these solutions is a matter of concern that needs very serious decisions, involving complexity owing to the presence of various associated factors. To resolve this problem, a comparative analysis approach based on multi-criteria decision-making methods is proposed for adequate evaluation of sustainable supply chain management solutions. In the present paper, we propose an integrated decision-making model based on FAHP (Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process), TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) and PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organisation METHod for Enrichment Evaluations) to contribute to a better understanding and development of new sustainable strategies for industrial organizations. Due to the varied importance of the selected criteria, FAHP is used to identify the evaluation criteria and assign the importance weights for each criterion, while TOPSIS and PROMETHEE methods employ these weighted criteria as inputs to evaluate and rank the alternatives. The main objective is to provide a comparative analysis based on TOPSIS and PROMETHEE processes to help make sound and reasoned decisions related to the selection problem of GSCM solution.

Keywords: GSCM solutions, multi-criteria analysis, decision support system, TOPSIS, FAHP, PROMETHEE

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Authors: Seung Cho Yang, Jae Sung Lee, Se Hee Park

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This study suggests the analysis method to predict the damages of tunnel concrete caused by fires. The result obtained from the analyses of concrete temperatures at a fire in a tunnel using ABAQUS was compared with the test result. After the reliability of the analysis method was verified, the temperatures of a tunnel at a real fire and those of concrete during the fire were estimated to predict fire damages. The temperatures inside the tunnel were estimated by FDS, a CFD model. It was deduced that the fire performance of tunnel lining and the fire damages of the structure at an actual fire could be estimated by the analysis method.

Keywords: fire resistance, heat transfer, numerical analysis, tunnel fire

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Authors: Khashayar Kazemzadeh, Mohammad Hanif Dasoomi

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According to the increasing volume of traffic, lane changing plays a crucial role in traffic flow. Lane changing in traffic depends on several factors including road geometrical design, speed, drivers’ behavioral characteristics, etc. A great deal of research has been carried out regarding these fields. Despite of the other significant factors, the drivers’ behavioral characteristics of lane changing has been emphasized in this paper. This paper has predicted the effective equation based on personal characteristics of lane changing by regression models.

Keywords: effective equation, lane changing, drivers’ behavioral characteristics, regression models

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Authors: Toby Li, Julian Zhu

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In this paper, a model based on a simplified geometry is introduced to give a very conservative collision probability prediction for the Starlink satellite in its most densely clustered region. Under the model in this paper, the probability of collision for Starlink satellite where it clustered most densely is found to be 8.484 ∗ 10^−4. It is found that the predicted collision probability increased nonlinearly with the increased safety distance set. This simple model provides evidence that the continuous development of maneuver avoidance systems is necessary for the future of the orbital safety of satellites under the harsher Lower Earth Orbit environment.

Keywords: Starlink, collision probability, debris, geometry model

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Authors: F. Sabri, J. Jamali

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In this article, the wrinkling failure of orthotropic composite membranes due to in-plane shear deformation is investigated using nonlinear finite element analyses. A nonlinear post-buckling analysis is performed to show the evolution of shear-induced wrinkles. The method of investigation is based on the post-buckling finite element analysis adopted from commercial FEM code; ANSYS. The resulting wrinkling patterns, their amplitude and their wavelengths under the prescribed loads and boundary conditions were confirmed by experimental results. Our study reveals that wrinkles develop when both the magnitudes and coverage of the minimum principal stresses in the laminated composite laminates are sufficiently large to trigger wrinkling.

Keywords: composite, FEM, membrane, wrinkling

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Authors: Sintija Miļuna, Ričards Melderis, Loreta Briuka, Dagnija Rostoka, Ingus Skadiņš, Juta Kroiča

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Objectives Smokeless tobacco products in Latvia become more available and favorable to young adults, especially students and athletes like hockey and floorball players. The aim of the research was to detect visual mucosal changes in the oral cavity in smokeless tobacco users and to evaluate pro - inflammatory and anti - inflammatory cytokine (IL-6, IL-1, IL-8, TNF Alpha) levels in saliva from smokeless tobacco users. Methods A smokeless tobacco group (n=10) and a control group (non-tobacco users) (n=10) were intraorally examined for oral lesions and 5 ml of saliva were collected. Saliva was analysed for Il-6, IL-1, Il-8, TNF Alpha using ELISA Sigma-Aldrich. For statistical analysis IBM Statistics 27 was used (Mann - Whitney U test, Spearman’s Rank Correlation coefficient). This research was approved by the Ethics Committee of Rīga Stradiņš University No.22/28.01.2016. This research has been developed with financing from the European Social Fund and Latvian state budget within the project no. 8.2.2.0/20/I/004 “Support for involving doctoral students in scientific research and studies” at Rīga Stradiņš University. Results IL-1, IL-6, IL-8, TNF Alpha levels were higher in the smokeless tobacco group (IL-1 83.34 pg/ml vs. 74.26 pg/ml; IL-6 195.10 pg/ml vs. 6.16 pg/ml; IL-8 736.34 pg/ml vs. 285.26 pg/ml; TNF Alpha 489.27 pg/ml vs. 200.9 pg/ml), but statistically there is no difference between control group and smokeless tobacco group (IL1 p=0.190, IL6 p=0.052, IL8 p=0.165, TNF alpha p=0.089). There was statistical correlation between IL1 and IL6 (p=0.023), IL6 and TNF alpha (p=0.028), IL8 and IL6 (p=0.005). Conclusions White localized lesions were detected in places where smokeless tobacco users placed sachets. There is a statistical correlation between IL6 and IL1 levels, IL6 and TNF alpha levels, IL8 and IL6 levels in saliva. There are no differences in the inflammatory cytokine levels between control group and smokeless tobacco group.

Keywords: smokeless tobacco, Snus, inflammatory biomarkers, oral lesions, oral pathology

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: V. Jagadish, Mathiyalagan V.

Abstract:

Prediction of Door Touch temperature of a Cooking Oven using CFD Simulation. Self-Clean cycle is carried out in Cooking ovens to convert food spilling into ashes which makes cleaning easy. During this cycle cavity of oven is exposed to high temperature around 460 C. At this operating point the user may prone to touch the Door surfaces, Side Shield, Control Panel. To prevent heat experienced by user, cooling system is built in oven. The most effective cooling system is developed with existing design constraints through CFD Simulations. Cross Flow fan is used for Cooling system due to its cost effectiveness and it can give more air flow with low pressure drop.

Keywords: CFD, MRF, RBM, RANS, new product development, simulation, thermal analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: Saba Ebrahimi, Hedieh Ashrafi

Abstract:

Predicting the cover type of forests is a challenge for natural resource managers. In this project, we aim to perform a comprehensive comparative study of two well-known classification methods, support vector machine (SVM) and decision tree (DT). The comparison is first performed among different types of each classifier, and then the best of each classifier will be compared by considering different evaluation metrics. The effect of boosting and bagging for decision trees is also explored. Furthermore, the effect of principal component analysis (PCA) and feature selection is also investigated. During the project, the forest cover-type dataset from the remote sensing and GIS program is used in all computations.

Keywords: classification methods, support vector machine, decision tree, forest cover-type dataset

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: Reza Hedayati, Meysam Jahanbakhshi

Abstract:

Fracture Mechanics is used to predict debonding propagation in adhesive joint between aluminum and composite plates. Three types of loadings and two types of glass-epoxy composite sequences: [0/90]2s and [0/45/-45/90]s are considered for the composite plate and their results are compared. It was seen that generally the cases with stacking sequence of [0/45/-45/90]s have much shorter lives than cases with [0/90]2s. It was also seen that in cases with λ=0 the ends of the debonding front propagates forward more than its middle, while in cases with λ=0.5 or λ=1 it is vice versa. Moreover, regardless of value of λ, the difference between the debonding propagations of the ends and the middle of the debonding front is very close in cases λ=0.5 and λ=1. Another main conclusion was the non-dimensionalized debonding front profile is almost independent of sequence type or the applied load value.

Keywords: fatigue, debonding, Paris law, APDL, adhesive

Procedia PDF Downloads 352