Search results for: error%20estimates

Authors: Miguel Cañon, Darwin Mena, Ivan Cabeza

Abstract:

In this work was compared and evaluated the applicability of statistical methods for the estimation of missing precipitations data in the basin of the river Lenguazaque located in the departments of Cundinamarca and Boyacá, Colombia. The methods used were the method of simple linear regression, distance rate, local averages, mean rates, correlation with nearly stations and multiple regression method. The analysis used to determine the effectiveness of the methods is performed by using three statistical tools, the correlation coefficient (r2), standard error of estimation and the test of agreement of Bland and Altmant. The analysis was performed using real rainfall values removed randomly in each of the seasons and then estimated using the methodologies mentioned to complete the missing data values. So it was determined that the methods with the highest performance and accuracy in the estimation of data according to conditions that were counted are the method of multiple regressions with three nearby stations and a random application scheme supported in the precipitation behavior of related data sets.

Keywords: statistical comparison, precipitation data, river subbasin, Bland and Altmant

Procedia PDF Downloads 466

Authors: Nicola Colaninno, Eugenio Morello

Abstract:

The urban environment affects local-to-global climate and, in turn, suffers global warming phenomena, with worrying impacts on human well-being, health, social and economic activities. Physic-morphological features of the built-up space affect urban air temperature, locally, causing the urban environment to be warmer compared to surrounding rural. This occurrence, typically known as the Urban Heat Island (UHI), is normally assessed by means of air temperature from fixed weather stations and/or traverse observations or based on remotely sensed Land Surface Temperatures (LST). The information provided by ground weather stations is key for assessing local air temperature. However, the spatial coverage is normally limited due to low density and uneven distribution of the stations. Although different interpolation techniques such as Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Ordinary Kriging (OK), or Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) are used to estimate air temperature from observed points, such an approach may not effectively reflect the real climatic conditions of an interpolated point. Quantifying local UHI for extensive areas based on weather stations’ observations only is not practicable. Alternatively, the use of thermal remote sensing has been widely investigated based on LST. Data from Landsat, ASTER, or MODIS have been extensively used. Indeed, LST has an indirect but significant influence on air temperatures. However, high-resolution near-surface air temperature (NSAT) is currently difficult to retrieve. Here we have experimented Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) as an effective approach to enable NSAT estimation by accounting for spatial non-stationarity of the phenomenon. The model combines on-site measurements of air temperature, from fixed weather stations and satellite-derived LST. The approach is structured upon two main steps. First, a GWR model has been set to estimate NSAT at low resolution, by combining air temperature from discrete observations retrieved by weather stations (dependent variable) and the LST from satellite observations (predictor). At this step, MODIS data, from Terra satellite, at 1 kilometer of spatial resolution have been employed. Two time periods are considered according to satellite revisit period, i.e. 10:30 am and 9:30 pm. Afterward, the results have been downscaled at 30 meters of spatial resolution by setting a GWR model between the previously retrieved near-surface air temperature (dependent variable), the multispectral information as provided by the Landsat mission, in particular the albedo, and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), both at 30 meters. Albedo and DEM are now the predictors. The area under investigation is the Metropolitan City of Milan, which covers an area of approximately 1,575 km2 and encompasses a population of over 3 million inhabitants. Both models, low- (1 km) and high-resolution (30 meters), have been validated according to a cross-validation that relies on indicators such as R2, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). All the employed indicators give evidence of highly efficient models. In addition, an alternative network of weather stations, available for the City of Milano only, has been employed for testing the accuracy of the predicted temperatures, giving and RMSE of 0.6 and 0.7 for daytime and night-time, respectively.

Keywords: urban climate, urban heat island, geographically weighted regression, remote sensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 193

Authors: Ashika Govender

Abstract:

This study seeks to determine whether Okun’s Law is valid for the South African economy, using time series data for the period 2004 to 2014. The data were accessed from the South African Reserve Bank and Stats SA. The stationarity of the variables was analysed by applying unit root tests via the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF), the Phillips-Perron (PP) test, and the Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin test (KPSS) test. The study used an ordinary least square (OLS) model in analysing the dynamic version of Okun’s law. The Error Correction Model (ECM) was used to analyse the short-run impact of GDP growth on unemployment, as well as the speed of adjustment. The results indicate a short run and long run relationship between unemployment rate and GDP growth rate in period 2004q1-2014q4, suggesting that Okun’s law is valid for the South African economy. With a 1 percent increase in GDP, unemployment can decrease by 0.13 percent, ceteris paribus. The research culminates in important policy recommendations, highlighting the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in the spirit of the National Development Plan.

Keywords: unemployment, economic growth, Okun's law, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: Abdelrahman Alghazali, Youssef Kassem, Hüseyin Çamur, Ozan Erenay

Abstract:

Savonius is a drag type vertical axis wind turbine. Savonius wind turbines have a low cut-in speed and can operate at low wind speed. This makes it suitable for electricity or mechanical generation in low-power applications such as individual domestic installations. Therefore, the primary purpose of this work was to investigate the relationship between the type of Savonius rotor and the torque and mechanical power generated. And it was to illustrate how the type of rotor might play an important role in the prediction of mechanical power of wind turbine powered car. The main purpose of this paper is to predict and investigate the aerodynamic effects by means of velocity analysis on the performance of a wind turbine powered car by converting the wind energy into mechanical energy to overcome load that rotates the main shaft. The predicted results based on theoretical analysis were compared with experimental results obtained from literature. The percentage of error between the two was approximately around 20%. Prediction of the torque was done at a wind speed of 4 m/s, and an angular velocity of 130 RPM according to meteorological statistics in Northern Cyprus.

Keywords: mechanical power, torque, Savonius rotor, wind car

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Dongkwon Han, Sangho Kim, Sunil Kwon

Abstract:

Unconventional gas resources have dramatically changed the future energy landscape. Unlike conventional gas resources, the key challenges in unconventional gas have been the requirement that applies to advanced approaches for production forecasting due to uncertainty and complexity of fluid flow. In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) model which integrates machine learning and data-driven approach was developed to predict productivity in shale gas. The database of 129 wells of Eagle Ford shale basin used for testing and training of the ANN model. The Input data related to hydraulic fracturing, well completion and productivity of shale gas were selected and the output data is a cumulative production. The performance of the ANN using all data sets, clustering and variables importance (VI) models were compared in the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). ANN model using all data sets, clustering, and VI were obtained as 44.22%, 10.08% (cluster 1), 5.26% (cluster 2), 6.35%(cluster 3), and 32.23% (ANN VI), 23.19% (SVM VI), respectively. The results showed that the pre-trained ANN model provides more accurate results than the ANN model using all data sets.

Keywords: unconventional gas, artificial neural network, machine learning, clustering, variables importance

Procedia PDF Downloads 194

Authors: Alebachew Halefom, Navsal Kumar, Arunava Poddar

Abstract:

The purpose of this work is to specify the parameter values, the base flow index (BFI), and to rank the methods that should be used for base flow separation. Three different digital graphical approaches are chosen and used in this study for the purpose of comparison. The daily time series discharge data were collected from the site for a period of 30 years (1986 up to 2015) and were used to evaluate the algorithms. In order to separate the base flow and the surface runoff, daily recorded streamflow (m³/s) data were used to calibrate procedures and get parameter values for the basin. Additionally, the performance of the model was assessed by the use of the standard error (SE), the coefficient of determination (R²), and the flow duration curve (FDC) and baseflow indexes. The findings indicate that, in general, each strategy can be used worldwide to differentiate base flow; however, the Sliding Interval Method (SIM) performs significantly better than the other two techniques in this basin. The average base flow index was calculated to be 0.72 using the local minimum method, 0.76 using the fixed interval method, and 0.78 using the sliding interval method, respectively.

Keywords: baseflow index, digital graphical methods, streamflow, Emba Madre Watershed

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Naman Singla, Ajay Pal Singh Chauhan

Abstract:

As the demand for providing high bit rate and high bandwidth is increasing at a rapid rate so there is a need to see in this problem and finds a technology that provides high bit rate and also high bandwidth. One possible solution is by use of optical fiber. Optical fiber technology provides high bandwidth in THz. But the disadvantage of optical fiber is of high cost and not used everywhere because it is not possible to reach all the locations on the earth. Also high maintenance required for usage of optical fiber. It puts a lot of cost. Another technology which is almost similar to optical fiber is Free Space Optics (FSO) technology. FSO is the line of sight technology where modulated optical beam whether infrared or visible is used to transfer information from one point to another through the atmosphere which works as a channel. This paper concentrates on analyzing the performance of FSO in terms of bit error rate (BER) and quality factor (Q) using different modulation techniques like non return to zero on off keying (NRZ-OOK), differential phase shift keying (DPSK) and differential quadrature phase shift keying (DQPSK) using OptiSystem software. The findings of this paper show that FSO system based on DQPSK modulation technique performs better.

Keywords: attenuation, bit rate, free space optics, link length

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Mojtaba Farzaneh, Majid Baghaei Nejad

Abstract:

This article proposes a new Flexible Capacitive Tactile Sensors based on paper sheets. This method combines the parameters of sensor's material and dielectric, and forms a new model of flexible capacitive sensors. The present article tries to present a practical explanation of this method's application and advantages. With the use of this new method, it is possible to make a more flexibility and accurate sensor in comparison with the current models. To assess the performance of this model, the common capacitive sensor is simulated and the proposed model of this article and one of the existing models are assessed. The results of this article indicate that the proposed model of this article can enhance the speed and accuracy of tactile sensor and has less error in comparison with the current models. Based on the results of this study, it can be claimed that in comparison with the current models, the proposed model of this article is capable of representing more flexibility and more accurate output parameters for touching the sensor, especially in abnormal situations and uneven surfaces, and increases accuracy and practicality.

Keywords: capacitive sensor, paper sheets, flexible, tactile, uneven

Procedia PDF Downloads 351

Authors: Khaja Moiduddin, Tamer Khalaf, Muthuramalingam Thangaraj

Abstract:

Due to the variety of benefits over traditional cutting techniques, the usage of laser cutting technology has risen substantially in recent years. Hot wire machining can cut the leather in the required shape by controlling the wire by generating thermal energy. In the present study, an attempt has been made to investigate the effects of performance measures in the hot wire machining process on cutting leather specimens. Carbonization and material removal rates were considered as quality indicators. Burning leather during machining might cause carbon particles, reducing product quality. Minimizing the effect of carbon particles is crucial for assuring operator and environmental safety, health, and product quality. Hot wire machining can efficiently cut the specimens by controlling the current through it. Taguchi- DEAR-based optimization was also performed in the process, which resulted in a required Carbonization and material removal rate. Using the DEAR approach, the optimal parameters of the present study were found with 3.7% prediction error accuracy.

Keywords: cabronization, leather, MRR, current

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Jui-Chen Huang

Abstract:

This research used artificial intelligence method to explore elderly’s opinions on the reuse of telecare, its effect on their service quality, satisfaction and the relationship between customer perceived value and intention to reuse. This study conducted a questionnaire survey on the elderly. A total of 124 valid copies of a questionnaire were obtained. It adopted Backpropagation Network (BPN) to propose an effective and feasible analysis method, which is different from the traditional method. Two third of the total samples (82 samples) were taken as the training data, and the one third of the samples (42 samples) were taken as the testing data. The training and testing data RMSE (root mean square error) are 0.022 and 0.009 in the BPN, respectively. As shown, the errors are acceptable. On the other hand, the training and testing data RMSE are 0.100 and 0.099 in the regression model, respectively. In addition, the results showed the service quality has the greatest effects on the intention to reuse, followed by the satisfaction, and perceived value. This result of the Backpropagation Network method is better than the regression analysis. This result can be used as a reference for future research.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, backpropagation network (BPN), elderly, reuse, telecare

Procedia PDF Downloads 210

Authors: Elysia Barker, Jian Guo Zhou, Ling Qian, Steve Decent

Abstract:

A method of modelling topography used in the simulation of riverbeds is proposed in this paper, which removes the need for datapoints and measurements of physical terrain. While complex scans of the contours of a surface can be achieved with other methods, this requires specialised tools, which the proposed method overcomes by using fractional Brownian motion (FBM) as a basis to estimate the real surface within a 15% margin of error while attempting to optimise algorithmic efficiency. This removes the need for complex, expensive equipment and reduces resources spent modelling bed topography. This method also accounts for the change in topography over time due to erosion, sediment transport, and other external factors which could affect the topography of the ground by updating its parameters and generating a new bed. The lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) is used to simulate both stationary and steady flow cases in a side-by-side comparison over the generated bed topography using the proposed method and a test case taken from an external source. The method, if successful, will be incorporated into the current LBM program used in the testing phase, which will allow an automatic generation of topography for the given situation in future research, removing the need for bed data to be specified.

Keywords: bed topography, FBM, LBM, shallow water, simulations

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: U. Sabura Banu, S. K. Lakshmanaprabu

Abstract:

The improvement of meta-heuristic algorithm encourages control engineer to design an optimal controller for industrial process. Most real-world industrial processes are non-linear multivariable process with high interaction. Even in sub-process unit, thousands of loops are available mostly interacting in nature. Optimal controller design for such process are still challenging task. Closed loop controller design by multiloop PID involves a tedious procedure by performing interaction study and then PID auto-tuning the loop with higher interaction. Finally, detuning the controller to accommodate the effects of the other process variables. Fractional order PID controllers are replacing integer order PID controllers recently. Design of Multiloop Fractional Order (MFO) PID controller is still more complicated. Cuckoo algorithm, a swarm intelligence technique is used to optimally tune the MFO PID controller with easiness minimizing Integral Time Absolute Error. The closed loop performance is tested under servo, regulatory and servo-regulatory conditions.

Keywords: Cuckoo algorithm, mutliloop fractional order PID controller, two Interacting conical tank process

Procedia PDF Downloads 496

Authors: Longqing Li

Abstract:

The paper addresses the inefficiency of the classical model in measuring the Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a normal distribution or a Student’s t distribution. Specifically, the paper focuses on the one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) of major stock market’s daily returns in US, UK, China and Hong Kong in the most recent ten years under 95% confidence level. To improve the predictable power and search for the best performing model, the paper proposes using two leading alternatives, Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and a family of GARCH models, and compares the relative performance. The main contribution could be summarized in two aspects. First, the paper extends the GARCH family model by incorporating EGARCH and TGARCH to shed light on the difference between each in estimating one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR). Second, to account for the non-normality in the distribution of financial markets, the paper applies Generalized Error Distribution (GED), instead of the normal distribution, to govern the innovation term. A dynamic back-testing procedure is employed to assess the performance of each model, a family of GARCH and the conditional EVT. The conclusion is that Exponential GARCH yields the best estimate in out-of-sample one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting. Moreover, the discrepancy of performance between the GARCH and the conditional EVT is indistinguishable.

Keywords: Value-at-Risk, Extreme Value Theory, conditional EVT, backtesting

Procedia PDF Downloads 319

Authors: Mohammad Y. Abualhoul, Edgar Talavera Munoz, Fawzi Nashashibi

Abstract:

The new emerging Visible Light Communication (VLC) technology has been subjected to intensive investigation, evaluation, and lately, deployed in the context of convoy-based applications for Intelligent Transportations Systems (ITS). The technology limitations were defined and supported by different solutions proposals to enhance the crucial alignment and mobility limitations. In this paper, we propose the incorporation of VLC technology and Lane-Centering (LC) technique to assure the VLC-connectivity by keeping the autonomous vehicle aligned to the lane center using vision-based lane detection in a convoy-based formation. Such combination can ensure the optical communication connectivity with a lateral error less than 30 cm. As soon as the road lanes are detectable, the evaluated system showed stable behavior independently from the inter-vehicle distances and without the need for any exchanged information of the remote vehicles. The evaluation of the proposed system is verified using VLC prototype and an empirical result of LC running application over 60 km in Madrid M40 highway.

Keywords: visible light communication, lane-centerin, platooning, intelligent transportation systems, road safety applications

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: Pablo Martinez, Emad Mohamed, Osama Mohsen, Yasser Mohamed

Abstract:

Highway and bridge agencies, such as the Ministry of Transportation in Ontario, use the Bridge Condition Index (BCI) which is defined as the weighted condition of all bridge elements to determine the rehabilitation priorities for its bridges. Therefore, accurate forecasting of BCI is essential for bridge rehabilitation budgeting planning. The large amount of data available in regard to bridge conditions for several years dictate utilizing traditional mathematical models as infeasible analysis methods. This research study focuses on investigating different classification models that are developed to predict the bridge condition index in the province of Ontario, Canada based on the publicly available data for 2800 bridges over a period of more than 10 years. The data preparation is a key factor to develop acceptable classification models even with the simplest one, the k-NN model. All the models were tested, compared and statistically validated via cross validation and t-test. A simple k-NN model showed reasonable results (within 0.5% relative error) when predicting the bridge condition in an incoming year.

Keywords: asset management, bridge condition index, data mining, forecasting, infrastructure, knowledge discovery in databases, maintenance, predictive models

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Ninlawat Phuangchoke, Waraporn Viyanon, Setta Sasananan

Abstract:

The most important process of the water treatment plant process is the coagulation using alum and poly aluminum chloride (PACL), and the value of usage per day is a hundred thousand baht. Therefore, determining the dosage of alum and PACL are the most important factors to be prescribed. Water production is economical and valuable. This research applies an artificial neural network (ANN), which uses the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm to create a mathematical model (Soft Jar Test) for prediction chemical dose used to coagulation such as alum and PACL, which input data consists of turbidity, pH, alkalinity, conductivity, and, oxygen consumption (OC) of Bangkhen water treatment plant (BKWTP) Metropolitan Waterworks Authority. The data collected from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2019 cover changing seasons of Thailand. The input data of ANN is divided into three groups training set, test set, and validation set, which the best model performance with a coefficient of determination and mean absolute error of alum are 0.73, 3.18, and PACL is 0.59, 3.21 respectively.

Keywords: soft jar test, jar test, water treatment plant process, artificial neural network

Procedia PDF Downloads 163

Authors: Hamed Afrasiab, Saeed Khodaygan

Abstract:

Prediction of machining process capability in the design stage plays a key role to reach the precision design and manufacturing of mechanical products. Inaccuracies in machining process lead to errors in position and orientation of machined features on the part, and strongly affect the process capability in the final quality of the product. In this paper, an efficient systematic approach is given to investigate the machining errors to predict the manufacturing errors of the parts and capability prediction of corresponding machining processes. A mathematical formulation of fixture locators modeling is presented to establish the relationship between the part errors and the related sources. Based on this method, the final machining errors of the part can be accurately estimated by relating them to the combined dimensional and geometric tolerances of the workpiece – fixture system. This method is developed for uncertainty analysis based on the Worst Case and statistical approaches. The application of the presented method is illustrated through presenting an example and the computational results are compared with the Monte Carlo simulation results.

Keywords: process capability, machining error, dimensional and geometrical tolerances, uncertainty analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 306

Authors: Alessio Mastrorillo, Giuseppe Silvi, Francesco Scagliola

Abstract:

In this work, we introduce an Ambisonics decoder with an implementation of the C-format, also called Super Stereo. This format is an alternative to conventional stereo and binaural decoding. Unlike those, this format conveys audio information from the horizontal plane and works with stereo speakers and headphones. The two C-format channels can also return a reconstructed planar B-format. This work provides an open-source implementation for this format. We implement an all-pass filter for signal quadrature, as required by the decoding equations. This filter works with six Biquads in a cascade configuration, with values for control frequency and quality factor discovered experimentally. The phase response of the filter delivers a small error in the 20-14.000Hz range. The decoder has been tested with audio sources up to 192kHz sample rate, returning pristine sound quality and detailed stereo image. It has been included in the Envelop for Live suite and is available as an open-source repository. This decoder has applications in Virtual Reality and 360° audio productions, music composition, and online streaming.

Keywords: ambisonics, UHJ, quadrature filter, virtual reality, Gerzon, decoder, stereo, binaural, biquad

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Meesun Sun, Yongmin Kim

Abstract:

Estimating maintenance cost is crucial in defense management because it affects military budgets and availability of equipment. When it comes to estimating maintenance cost of the deployed equipment, time series forecasting can be applied with the actual historical cost data. It is more difficult issue to estimate maintenance cost of new equipment for which the actual costs are not provided. In this underlying context, this study proposes an analytical method for maintenance cost estimating relationships (CERs) development of helicopters using linear programming. The CERs can be applied to a new helicopter because they use non-cost independent variables such as the number of engines, the empty weight and so on. In the Republic of Korea, the maintenance cost of new equipment has been usually estimated by reflecting maintenance cost to unit price ratio of the legacy equipment. This study confirms that the CERs perform well for the 10 types of airmobile helicopters in terms of mean absolute percentage error by applying leave-one-out cross-validation. The suggested method is very useful to estimate the maintenance cost of new equipment and can help in the affordability assessment of acquisition program portfolios for total life cycle systems management.

Keywords: affordability analysis, cost estimating relationship, helicopter, linear programming, maintenance cost

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Oluwatosin Olofintoye, Josiah Adeyemo, Gbemileke Shomade

Abstract:

The relationship between rainfall and runoff is an important issue in surface water hydrology therefore the understanding and development of accurate rainfall-runoff models and their applications in water resources planning, management and operation are of paramount importance in hydrological studies. This paper reviews some of the previous works on the rainfall-runoff process modeling. The hydrologic applications of conceptual models and artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the precipitation-runoff process modeling were studied. Gradient training methods such as error back-propagation (BP) and evolutionary algorithms (EAs) are discussed in relation to the training of artificial neural networks and it is shown that application of EAs to artificial neural networks training could be an alternative to other training methods. Therefore, further research interest to exploit the abundant expert knowledge in the area of artificial intelligence for the solution of hydrologic and water resources planning and management problems is needed.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, evolutionary algorithms, gradient training method, rainfall-runoff model

Procedia PDF Downloads 453

Authors: Harsh Vikram Singh, Ankur Rai, Anand Mohan

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose secure and robust data hiding algorithm based on DCT by Arnold transform and chaotic sequence. The watermark image is scrambled by Arnold cat map to increases its security and then the chaotic map is used for watermark signal spread in middle band of DCT coefficients of the cover image The chaotic map can be used as pseudo-random generator for digital data hiding, to increase security and robustness .Performance evaluation for robustness and imperceptibility of proposed algorithm has been made using bit error rate (BER), normalized correlation (NC), and peak signal to noise ratio (PSNR) value for different watermark and cover images such as Lena, Girl, Tank images and gain factor .We use a binary logo image and text image as watermark. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm achieves higher security and robustness against JPEG compression as well as other attacks such as addition of noise, low pass filtering and cropping attacks compared to other existing algorithm using DCT coefficients. Moreover, to recover watermarks in proposed algorithm, there is no need to original cover image.

Keywords: data hiding, watermarking, DCT, chaotic sequence, arnold transforms

Procedia PDF Downloads 513

Authors: Xinyi Xu

Abstract:

This study conducts a detailed examination of Asian stock markets over the period from 2008 to 2023, with a focus on the dynamics of cointegration and their relevance for long-term investment strategies. Specifically, we assess the co-movement and potential for pairs trading—a strategy where investors take opposing positions on two stocks, indices, or financial instruments that historically move together. For example, we explore the relationship between the Nikkei 225 (N225), Japan’s benchmark stock index, and the Straits Times Index (STI) of Singapore, as well as the relationship between the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KS11) and the STI. The methodology includes tests for normality, stationarity, cointegration, and the application of Vector Error Correction Modeling (VECM). Our findings reveal significant long-term relationships between these pairs, indicating opportunities for pairs trading strategies. Furthermore, the research underscores the challenges posed by model instability and the influence of major global incidents, which are identified as structural breaks. These findings pave the way for further exploration into the intricacies of financial market dynamics.

Keywords: normality tests, stationarity, cointegration, VECM, pairs trading

Procedia PDF Downloads 55

Authors: Shu Tao, Rong Wang, Huizhong Shen, Ye Huang

Abstract:

High-resolution mapping of fuel combustion is essential for reducing uncertainties in assessments of greenhouse gases and air pollutant emissions. Such inventories provide valuable information for inferring carbon sinks, modeling pollutant transport, and developing control strategies. Previous inventories included only a few fuel types and were derived using national population proxies which may distort the geographical variation within countries. In this study, a global 0.1 degree by 0.1 degree geo-referenced inventory of fuel combustion (PKU-FUEL-2007) was developed for 64 fuel sub-types along with uncertainty analysis for the year 2007. Sub-national fuel consumption of large countries and major power-station locations were used. The disaggregation error can be reduced significantly by using the sub-nationally energy data, because the uneven distribution of per-capita fuel consumption within countries is taken into consideration. The PKU-FUEL was used to generate global emission inventories of CO2 (PKU-CO2-2007), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PKU-PAHs-2007), and black carbons (PKU-BC-2007). Atmospheric transport modeling and expsoure assessment were conducted for BC and PAHs based on the inventory.

Keywords: fuel, emission, BC, PAHs, atmospheric transport, exposure

Procedia PDF Downloads 327

Authors: A. Fayad, Q. Alqhazaly, T. Cinkler

Abstract:

In light of the substantial increase in end-user requirements and the incessant need of network operators to upgrade the capabilities of access networks, in this paper, the performance of the different modulation formats on eight-channels Time and Wavelength Division Multiplexing Passive Optical Network (TWDM-PON) transmission system has been examined and compared. Limitations and features of modulation formats have been determined to outline the most suitable design to enhance the data rate and transmission reach to obtain the best performance of the network. The considered modulation formats are On-Off Keying Non-Return-to-Zero (NRZ-OOK), Carrier Suppressed Return to Zero (CSRZ), Duo Binary (DB), Modified Duo Binary (MODB), Quadrature Phase Shift Keying (QPSK), and Differential Quadrature Phase Shift Keying (DQPSK). The performance has been analyzed by varying transmission distances and bit rates under different channel spacing. Furthermore, the system is evaluated in terms of minimum Bit Error Rate (BER) and Quality factor (Qf) without applying any dispersion compensation technique, or any optical amplifier. Optisystem software was used for simulation purposes.

Keywords: BER, DuoBinary, NRZ-OOK, TWDM-PON

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Babar Khan, Wang Zhijie

Abstract:

Machine Vision has been playing a significant role in Industrial Automation, to imitate the wide variety of human functions, providing improved safety, reduced labour cost, the elimination of human error and/or subjective judgments, and the creation of timely statistical product data. Despite the intensive research, there have not been any attempts to classify fabric prints based on printed texture and colour, most of the researches so far encompasses only black and white or grey scale images. We proposed a biologically inspired processing architecture to classify fabrics w.r.t. the fabric print texture and colour. We created a texture descriptor based on the HMAX model for machine vision, and incorporated colour descriptor based on opponent colour channels simulating the single opponent and double opponent neuronal function of the brain. We found that our algorithm not only outperformed the original HMAX algorithm on classification of fabric print texture and colour, but we also achieved a recognition accuracy of 85-100% on different colour and different texture fabric.

Keywords: automatic classification, texture descriptor, colour descriptor, opponent colour channel

Procedia PDF Downloads 482

Authors: Chih-Chia Lin, Ching-Ying Huang, Cheng-Hong Liu, Wen-Lin Wang

Abstract:

A complete fuel cell stack comprises several single cells with end plates, bipolar plates, gaskets and membrane electrode assembly (MEA) components. Electrons generated from cells are conducted through bipolar plates. The amount of cells' components increases as the stack voltage increases, complicating the fuel cell assembly process and mass production. Stack assembly error influence cell performance. PEM fuel cell stack importing laser welding technique could eliminate transverse deformation between bipolar plates to promote stress uniformity of cell components as bipolar plates and MEA. Simultaneously, bipolar plates were melted together using laser welding to decrease interface resistance. A series of experiments as through-plan and in-plan resistance measurement test was conducted to observe the laser welding effect. The result showed that the through-plane resistance with laser welding was a drop of 97.5-97.6% when the contact pressure was about 1MPa to 3 MPa, and the in-plane resistance was not significantly different for laser welding.

Keywords: PEM fuel cell, laser welding, through-plan, in-plan, resistance

Procedia PDF Downloads 509

Authors: Hamdi Amroun, Yacine Benziani, Mehdi Ammi

Abstract:

In this paper, we want to determine whether the accurate prediction of nicotine concentration can be obtained by using a network of smart objects and an e-cigarette. The approach consists of, first, the recognition of factors influencing smoking cessation such as physical activity recognition and participant’s behaviors (using both smartphone and smartwatch), then the prediction of the configuration of the e-cigarette (in terms of nicotine concentration, power, and resistance of e-cigarette). The study uses a network of commonly connected objects; a smartwatch, a smartphone, and an e-cigarette transported by the participants during an uncontrolled experiment. The data obtained from sensors carried in the three devices were trained by a Long short-term memory algorithm (LSTM). Results show that our LSTM-based model allows predicting the configuration of the e-cigarette in terms of nicotine concentration, power, and resistance with a root mean square error percentage of 12.9%, 9.15%, and 11.84%, respectively. This study can help to better control consumption of nicotine and offer an intelligent configuration of the e-cigarette to users.

Keywords: Iot, activity recognition, automatic classification, unconstrained environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 223

Authors: Ahmed Kamil Hasan Al-Ali, Bouchra Senadji, Ganesh Naik

Abstract:

We propose a system to real environmental noise and channel mismatch for forensic speaker verification systems. This method is based on suppressing various types of real environmental noise by using independent component analysis (ICA) algorithm. The enhanced speech signal is applied to mel frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCC) or MFCC feature warping to extract the essential characteristics of the speech signal. Channel effects are reduced using an intermediate vector (i-vector) and probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (PLDA) approach for classification. The proposed algorithm is evaluated by using an Australian forensic voice comparison database, combined with car, street and home noises from QUT-NOISE at a signal to noise ratio (SNR) ranging from -10 dB to 10 dB. Experimental results indicate that the MFCC feature warping-ICA achieves a reduction in equal error rate about (48.22%, 44.66%, and 50.07%) over using MFCC feature warping when the test speech signals are corrupted with random sessions of street, car, and home noises at -10 dB SNR.

Keywords: noisy forensic speaker verification, ICA algorithm, MFCC, MFCC feature warping

Procedia PDF Downloads 406

Authors: Merouane Salhi, Toufik Zebbiche

Abstract:

When the stagnation pressure of perfect gas increases, the specific heat and their ratio do not remain constant anymore and start to vary with this pressure. The gas doesn’t remain perfect. Its state equation change and it becomes for a real gas. In this case, the effects of molecular size and intermolecular attraction forces intervene to correct the state equation. The aim of this work is to show and discuss the effect of stagnation pressure on supersonic thermodynamical, physical and geometrical flow parameters, to find a general case for real gas. With the assumptions that Berthelot’s state equation accounts for the molecular size and intermolecular force effects, expressions are developed for analyzing supersonic flow for thermally and calorically imperfect gas lower than the dissociation molecules threshold. The designs parameters for supersonic nozzle like thrust coefficient depend directly on stagnation parameters of the combustion chamber. The application is for air. A computation of error is made in this case to give a limit of perfect gas model compared to real gas model.

Keywords: supersonic flow, real gas model, Berthelot’s state equation, Simpson’s method, condensation function, stagnation pressure

Procedia PDF Downloads 445

Authors: Hamid Rostami Jaz, Kamran Ameri Siahooei

Abstract:

Up to now different methods have been used to forecast the index returns and the index rate. Artificial intelligence and artificial neural networks have been one of the methods of index returns forecasting. This study attempts to carry out a comparative study on the performance of different Radial Base Neural Network and Feed-Forward Perceptron Neural Network to forecast investment returns on the index. To achieve this goal, the return on investment in Tehran Stock Exchange index is evaluated and the performance of Radial Base Neural Network and Feed-Forward Perceptron Neural Network are compared. Neural networks performance test is applied based on the least square error in two approaches of in-sample and out-of-sample. The research results show the superiority of the radial base neural network in the in-sample approach and the superiority of perceptron neural network in the out-of-sample approach.

Keywords: exchange index, forecasting, perceptron neural network, Tehran stock exchange

Procedia PDF Downloads 463