Search results for: attack risk

Authors: Kalpana Rajouriya, Ajay Taneja

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Particulates are ubiquitous in the air environment and cause serious threats to human beings, such as lung cancer, COPD, and Asthma. Particulates mainly arise from industrial effluent, vehicular emission, and other anthropogenic activities. In the glass industrial city Firozabad, real-time monitoring of size segregated Particulate Matter (PM) and black carbon was done by Aerosol Black Carbon Detector (ABCD) and GRIMM portable aerosol Spectrometer at two different sites in which one site is urban and another is rural. The average mass concentration of size segregated PM during the study period (March & April 2022) was recorded as PM10 (223.73 g/m⁻³), PM5.0 (44.955 g/m⁻³), PM2.5 (59.275 g/m⁻³), PM1.0 (33.02 g/m⁻³), PM0.5 (2.05 g/m⁻³), and PM0.25 (2.99 g/m⁻³). The highest concentration of BC was found in Urban due to the emissions from diesel engines and wood burning, while NO2 was highest at the rural sites. The average concentrations of PM10 (6.08 and 2.73 times) PM2.5 exceeded the NAAQS and WHO guidelines. Particulate Matter deposition and health risk assessment was done by MPPD and USEPA model to know about the particulate matter toxicity in industrial residents. Health risk assessment results showed that Children are most likely to be affected by exposure of PM10 and PM2.5 and may have various non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic diseases. Deposition results inferred that the sensitive exposed population, especially 9 years old children, have high PM deposition as well as visualization and may be at risk of developing health-related problems from exposure to size-segregated PM. They will be discussed during presentation.

Keywords: particulate matter, black carbon, NO2, deposition of PM, health risk

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Authors: Yung-Feng Yen, I-an Jen, Yi-Ming Arthur Chen

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The molecular mimicry between human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) protein and red blood cell (RBC) antigens could induce the production of anti-RBC autoantibodies. However, the association between HIV infection and subsequent development of autoimmune hemolytic anemia (AIHA) remains unclear. This nationwide population-based cohort study aimed to determine the association between incident AIHA and HIV in Taiwan. From 2000–2012, we identified adult people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) from the Taiwan centers for disease control HIV Surveillance System. HIV-infected individuals were defined by positive HIV-1 western blot. Age- and sex-matched controls without HIV infection were selected from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database for comparison. All patients were followed until Dec. 31, 2012, and observed for occurrence of AIHA. Of 171,468 subjects (19,052 PLWHA, 152,416 controls), 30 (0.02%) had incident AIHA during a mean follow-up of 5.45 years, including 23 (0.12%) PLWHA and 7 (0.01%) controls. After adjusting for potential confounders, HIV infection was found to be an independent risk factor of incident AIHA (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 20.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 8.34-52.3). Moreover, PLWHA receiving HAART were more likely to develop AIHA than those not receiving HAART (AHR, 10.8; 95% CI, 2.90-40.1). Additionally, the risk of AIHA was significantly increased in those taking efavirenz (AHR, 3.15; 95% CI, 1.18-8.43) or atazanavir (AHR, 6.58; 95% CI, 1.88-22.9) component of the HAART. In conclusion, HIV infection is an independent risk factor for incident AIHA. Clinicians need to be aware of the higher risk of AIHA in PLWHA.

Keywords: autoimmune disease , hemolytic anemia, HIV, highly active antiretroviral treatment

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Authors: Aparna Lal, Ashwin Swaminathan, Teisa Holani

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Background: Clostridium difficile infections (CDIs) have been on the rise globally. In Australia, rates of CDI in all States and Territories have increased significantly since mid-2011. Identifying risk factors for CDI in the community can help inform targeted interventions to reduce infection. Methods: We examine the role of neighbourhood socio-economic status, demography, testing practices and the number of residential aged care facilities on spatial patterns in CDI incidence in the Australian Capital Territory. Data on all tests conducted for CDI were obtained from ACT Pathology by postcode for the period 1st January 2004 through 31 December 2014. Distribution of age groups and the neighbourhood Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage Disadvantage (IRSAD) were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011 National Census data. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive model was fitted at the postcode level to quantify the relationship between CDI and socio-demographic factors. To identify CDI hotspots, exceedance probabilities were set at a threshold of twice the estimated relative risk. Results: CDI showed a positive spatial association with the number of tests (RR=1.01, 95% CI 1.00, 1.02) and the resident population over 65 years (RR=1.00, 95% CI 1.00, 1.01). The standardized index of relative socio-economic advantage disadvantage (IRSAD) was significantly negatively associated with CDI (RR=0.74, 95% CI 0.56, 0.94). We identified three postcodes with high probability (0.8-1.0) of excess risk. Conclusions: Here, we demonstrate geographic variations in CDI in the ACT with a positive association of CDI with socioeconomic disadvantage and identify areas with a high probability of elevated risk compared with surrounding communities. These findings highlight community-based risk factors for CDI.

Keywords: spatial, socio-demographic, infection, Clostridium difficile

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Authors: Novee Lor C. Leyso, Maylin C. Palatino

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Under-five malnutrition continues to persist in the Philippines, particularly in the island Province of Marinduque, with prevalence of some forms of malnutrition even worsening in recent years. Local spatial cluster detection provides a spatial perspective in understanding this phenomenon as key in analyzing patterns of geographic variation, identification of community-appropriate programs and interventions, and focused targeting on high-risk areas. Using data from a province-wide household-based census conducted in 2014–2016, this study aimed to determine and evaluate spatial clusters of under-five malnutrition, across the province and within each municipality at the individual level using household location. Malnutrition was defined as weight-for-age z-score that fall outside the 2 standard deviations from the median of the WHO reference population. The Kulldorff’s elliptical spatial scan statistic in binomial model was used to locate clusters with high-risk of malnutrition, while adjusting for age and membership to government conditional cash transfer program as proxy for socio-economic status. One large significant cluster of under-five malnutrition was found southwest of the province, in which living in these areas at least doubles the risk of malnutrition. Additionally, at least one significant cluster were identified within each municipality—mostly located along the coastal areas. All these indicate apparent geographical variations across and within municipalities in the province. There were also similarities and disparities in the patterns of risk of malnutrition in each cluster across municipalities, and even within municipality, suggesting underlying causes at work that warrants further investigation. Therefore, community-appropriate programs and interventions should be identified and should be focused on high-risk areas to maximize limited government resources. Further studies are also recommended to determine factors affecting variations in childhood malnutrition considering the evidence of spatial clustering found in this study.

Keywords: Binomial model, Kulldorff’s elliptical spatial scan statistic, Philippines, under-five malnutrition

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Authors: Chie Urawa

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Cautionary statements or disclaimers in corporate annual reports need to be carefully designed because clear cautionary statements may protect a company in the case of legal disputes and may undermine positive impressions. This study compares the language of cautionary statements using two corpora, Sony’s cautionary statement corpus (S-corpus) and Panasonic’s cautionary statement corpus (P-corpus), illustrating the differences and similarities in relation to the use of meaningful cautionary statements and critically analyzing why practitioners use the way. The findings describe the distinct differences between the two companies in the presentation of the risk factors and the way how they make the statements. The word ability is used more for legal protection in S-corpus whereas the word possibility is used more to convey a better impression in P-corpus. The main similarities are identified in the use of lexical words and pronouns, and almost the same wordings for eight years. The findings show how they make the statements unique to the company in the presentation of risk factors, and the characteristics of specific genre of professional communication. Important implications of this study are that more comprehensive approach can be applied in other contexts, and be used by companies to reflect upon their cautionary statements.

Keywords: cautionary statements, corporate annual reports, corpus, risk factors

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Authors: Nyla Anjum, Humaira Bano

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Disability, regardless of its type and nature limits one or two significant life activities. These limitations constitute risk factors for suicide. Rate and intensity of problem upsurges in critical age of adolescence. Researches in the field of mental health over look problem of suicide among persons with disability. Aim of the study was to investigate prevalence and risk factors for suicide among adolescents with disability. The study constitutes purposive sample of 106 elements of both gender with four major categories of disability: hearing impairment, physical impairment, visual impairment and intellectual disabilities. Face to face interview technique was opted for data collection. Other variable are: socio-economic status, social and family support, provision of services for persons with disability, education and employment opportunities. For data analysis independent sample t-test was applied to find out significant differences in gender and One Way Analysis of variance was run to find out differences among four types of disability. Major predictors of suicide were identified with multiple regression analysis. It is concluded that ideation, plans and attempts of suicide among adolescents with disability is a multifaceted and imperative concern in the area of mental health. Urgent research recommendations contains valid measurement of suicide rate and identification of more risk factors for suicide among persons with disability. Study will also guide towards prevention of this pressing problem and will bring message of happy and healthy life not only for persons with disability but also for their families. It will also help to reduce suicide rate in society.

Keywords: suicide, risk factors, adolescent, disability, mental health

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Authors: Abid I. Abu-Tair, Gavin M. Wilde, John M. Kinuthia

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Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) is a functional capability that has been developed to allow the United Kingdom Fire and Rescue Service to deal with ‘major incidents’ primarily involving structural collapse. The nature of the work undertaken by USAR means that staying out of a damaged or collapsed building structure is not usually an option for search and rescue personnel. As a result, there is always a risk that they could become victims. For this paper, a systematic and investigative review using desk research was undertaken to explore the role which structural engineering can play in assisting search and rescue personnel to conduct structural assessments when in the field. The focus is on how search and rescue personnel can assess damaged and collapsed building structures, not just in terms of the structural damage that may be countered, but also in relation to structural stability. Natural disasters, accidental emergencies, acts of terrorism and other extreme events can vary significantly in nature and ferocity, and can cause a wide variety of damage to building structures. It is not possible or, even realistic, to provide search and rescue personnel with definitive guidelines and procedures to assess damaged and collapsed building structures as there are too many variables to consider. However, understanding what implications damage may have upon the structural stability of a building structure will enable search and rescue personnel to judge better and quantify the risk from a life-safety standpoint. It is intended that this will allow search and rescue personnel to make informed decisions and ensure every effort is made to mitigate risk so that they do not become victims.

Keywords: damaged and collapsed building structures, life safety, quantifying risk, search and rescue personnel, structural assessments in the field

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Authors: Siamak Feizi, Gunvor Baardvik

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Soil erosion has special consequences for landfills that are more serious than those found at conventional construction sites. Different potential heads between two sides of a landfill and the subsequent movement of water through pores within the soil body could trigger the soil erosion and construction instability. Such a condition was encountered in a landfill project in the southern part of Norway. To check the risk of internal erosion due to changes in the groundwater level (because of seasonal flooding in the river), a series of numerical simulations by means of Geo-Seep software was conducted. Output of this study provides a total picture of the landfill stability, possibilities of erosions, and necessary measures to prevent or reduce the risk for the landfill operator.

Keywords: erosion, seepage, landfill, stability

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Authors: Karuna Sutthibenjakul, Sunisa Chatmongkolchart

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Background: Postinduction hypotension is common and occurs more often in elderly patients. We aimed to determine risk factors for hypotension after induction among elderly patients (aged 65 years and older) who underwent elective non-cardiac surgery under general anesthesia. Methods: This cohort study analyzed from 580 data between December 2017 and July 2018 at a tertiary university hospital in south of Thailand. Hypotension is defined as more than 30% decrease mean arterial pressure from baseline after induction within 20 minutes or the use of vasopressive agent to treat low blood pressure. Intraoperative parameters were blood pressure and heart rate at T0, TEI, T5, T10, T15 and T20 (immediately after arrival at operating room, time after intubation, 5, 10, 15 and 20 minutes after intubation) respectively. Results: The median age was 72.5 (68, 78) years. A prevalence of post-induction hypotension was 64.8%. The highest prevalence (39.7%) was at 15 minutes after intubation. The association of post-induction hypotension is rising with diuretic drug as preoperative medication (P-value=0.016), hematocrit level (P-value=0.031) and the degree of hypertension immediately after arrival at operating room (P-value<0.001). Increasing fentanyl dosage during induction was associated with hypotension at intubation time (P-value<0.01) and 5 minutes after intubation (P-value<0.001). There was no statistically significant difference in the increasing propofol dosage. Conclusion: The degree of hypertension immediately after arrival at operating room and increasing fentanyl dosage were a significant risk factors for postinduction hypotension in elderly patients.

Keywords: risk factors, post-induction, hypotension, elderly

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Authors: Lutfi Abosrra, Alseddeq Alabaoub, Nuri Elhaloudi

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Corrosion processes in the Oil & Gas industry can lead to failures that are usually costly to repair, costly in terms of loss of contaminated product, in terms of environmental damage and possibly costly in terms of human safety. This article describes the results of the corrosion review and criticality assessment done at Mellitah Gas (SRU unit) for pressure equipment and piping system. The information gathered through the review was intended for developing a qualitative RBI study. The corrosion criticality assessment has been carried out by applying company procedures and industrial recommended practices such as API 571, API 580/581, ASME PCC 3, which provides a guideline for establishing corrosion integrity assessment. The corrosion review is intimately related to the probability of failure (POF). During the corrosion study, the process units are reviewed by following the applicable process flow diagrams (PFDs) in the presence of Mellitah’s personnel from process engineering, inspection, and corrosion/materials and reliability engineers. The expected corrosion damage mechanism (internal and external) was identified, and the corrosion rate was estimated for every piece of equipment and corrosion loop in the process units. A combination of both Consequence and Likelihood of failure was used for determining the corrosion risk. A qualitative consequence of failure (COF) for each individual item was assigned based on the characteristics of the fluid as per its flammability, toxicity, and pollution into three levels (High, Medium, and Low). A qualitative probability of failure (POF)was applied to evaluate the internal and external degradation mechanism, a high-level point-based (0 to 10) for the purpose of risk prioritizing in the range of Low, Medium, and High.

Keywords: corrosion, criticality assessment, RBI, POF, COF

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Authors: J. J. Lloyd, J. S. Phillips

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Background: HIV/AIDS has made a huge impact on human development and sexual reproductive habits in this century in the world and especially in sub-Saharan Africa. It has only recently been acknowledged that HIV/AIDS has an equal if not greater effect on or threat to people with disabilities. Survivors of traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI) with resultant disability are incorrectly believed to be sexually inactive, unlikely to use drugs or alcohol and at less risk of violence or rape than their non-disabled peers. This group can thus be described as economically, educationally and socially disadvantaged, which in itself, suggest that they are a high-risk group for HIV infection. Objectives: Thus, the overall objective of this study was to assess the factors that exacerbate the risk and vulnerability of individuals with spinal cord injuries to HIV infection in order to develop a more effective HIV intervention. Methodology: This paper reports on the cross-sectional data gathered from individuals with a traumatic spinal cord injury in 4 conveniently selected provinces in South Africa. Data was collected by means of self-administered questionnaires. The questionnaire consisted of various sections requesting for information on Demographics; HIV-Knowledge (HIV- KQ-18); Sexual behaviours; sexual communication, and negotiation skills and Self-efficacy to refuse sex. Results: The majority of the study sample was males (72.7%) with a mean age of 34.6 years. The majority reported lifetime sexual intercourse (92.4%) but only 31.8% reported condom use with last sexual intercourse. Low level of HIV knowledge, and being male were the strongest predictor of risky sexual behaviours in this sample. Conclusion: Significant numbers of individuals with spinal cord injuries are thus engaging in risky sexual behaviours pointing to a need to strengthen comprehensive sexual health education to increase access to HIV testing, promote safe sex and condom use among this group.

Keywords: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), individuals with spinal cord injuries, risky sexual behaviours, HIV risk factors, sub-saharan Africa

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding

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Authors: Walaa Mohammed Saeed

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Studies suggest a crosstalk between bone and metabolism through Osteocalcin (OC), a bone-derived protein that plays an important role in regulating glucose and fat metabolism. Studies relate type II Diabetes Mellitus (DMII) with Homocysteine (Hcy) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD). This study investigates the relationship between levels of OC, Hcy, and DMII in 85 subjects of which 50 were diabetic female patients (29–65 years) and 35 healthy controls. OC and Hcy levels were measured in fasting blood samples using immunoassay analyzer. Fasting serum glucose, glycated hemoglobin, lipid profile, were estimated by automated Siemens Dimension XP auto-analyzer. A significant increase in the frequency of low OC levels (p < 0.001) and high Hcy levels (p < 0.001) was detected in diabetic patients compared to controls (chi-squared test). Using ANOVA test, patients were divided into tertiles based on plasma OC and Hcy levels; fasting serum glucose varied inversely with OC but directly with Hcy tertiles (p=0.049, p=0.033 respectively). Atherogenic Index of Plasma (AIP=Log TG/HDL) predicts that diabetic patients with 36% high and 15% intermediate cardiovascular risk had increased frequency of low OC levels compared to low-risk patients (p=0.047). Another group of diabetic patients with 39% high and 11% intermediate CVD risk had increased frequency of high Hcy levels (p=0.033). A significant negative correlation existed between OC and glucose (r = -0.318; p = 0.035) while correlation between glucose level and Hcy (r = 0.851 p=0.022) was positive. Hence, low serum OC levels and high Hcy levels were associated with impaired glucose metabolism that may increase cardiovascular risk in DMII.

Keywords: osteocalcin, homocysteine, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular

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Authors: Zahra Bahadoran, Parvin Mirmiran, Fereidoun Azizi

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Background: Higher consumption of white rice has been suggested as a risk factor for development of metabolic abnormalities. In this study we investigated the association between consumption of white rice and the 3-year occurrence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in adults with and without abdominal obesity. Methods: This longitudinal study was conducted within the framework of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study on 1476 adults, aged 19-70 years. Dietary intakes were measured, using a 168-food items validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire at baseline. Biochemical and anthropometric measurements were evaluated at both baseline (2006-2008) and after 3-year follow-up (2009-2011). MetS and its components were defined according to the diagnostic criteria proposed by NCEP ATP III, and the new cutoff points of waist circumference for Iranian adults. Multiple logistic regression models were used to estimate the occurrence of the MetS in each quartile of white rice consumption. Results: The mean age of participants was 37.8±12.3 y, and mean BMI was 26.0±4.5 kg/m2 at baseline. The prevalence of MetS in subjects with abdominal obesity was significantly higher (40.9 vs. 16.2%, P<0.01). There was no significant difference in white rice consumption between the two groups. Mean daily intake of white rice was 93±59, 209±58, 262±60 and 432±224 g/d, in the first to fourth quartiles of white rice, respectively. Stratified analysis by categories of waist circumference showed that higher consumption of white rice was more strongly related to the risk of metabolic syndrome in participants who had abdominal obesity (OR: 2.34, 95% CI:1.14-4.41 vs. OR:0.99, 95% CI:0.60-1.65) Conclusion: We demonstrated that higher consumption of white rice may be a risk for development of metabolic syndrome in adults with abdominal obesity.

Keywords: white rice, abdominal obesity, metabolic syndrome, food science, triglycerides

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Authors: Georgiana Onicescu, Yuqian Shen

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Due to the complex nature of geo-referenced data, multicollinearity of the risk factors in public health spatial studies is a commonly encountered issue, which leads to low parameter estimation accuracy because it inflates the variance in the regression analysis. To address this issue, we proposed a two-stage variable selection method by extending the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) to the Bayesian spatial setting, investigating the impact of risk factors to health outcomes. Specifically, in stage I, we performed the variable selection using Bayesian Lasso and several other variable selection approaches. Then, in stage II, we performed the model selection with only the selected variables from stage I and compared again the methods. To evaluate the performance of the two-stage variable selection methods, we conducted a simulation study with different distributions for the risk factors, using geo-referenced count data as the outcome and Michigan as the research region. We considered the cases when all candidate risk factors are independently normally distributed, or follow a multivariate normal distribution with different correlation levels. Two other Bayesian variable selection methods, Binary indicator, and the combination of Binary indicator and Lasso were considered and compared as alternative methods. The simulation results indicated that the proposed two-stage Bayesian Lasso variable selection method has the best performance for both independent and dependent cases considered. When compared with the one-stage approach, and the other two alternative methods, the two-stage Bayesian Lasso approach provides the highest estimation accuracy in all scenarios considered.

Keywords: Lasso, Bayesian analysis, spatial analysis, variable selection

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Risk management in banking sector is a key issue linked to financial system stability and its importance has been elevated by technological developments and emergence of new financial instruments. In this paper, we improve the model previously defined for quantifying internal control impact on banking risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA. For this, we defined three equations and a maturity coefficient to obtain a mathematical model which is tested on all banking processes and type of risks. The new model allows an optimal assessment of residual criticality and improves the correlation rate that has become 98%.

Keywords: risk, control, banking, FMECA, criticality

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Authors: Rama Bhattacharyya, S. N. Ojha, Umesh K. Singh

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Anthropogenic control on groundwater chemistry has emerged as a critical concern now-a-days, especially in the industrial areas. In view of this, a comprehensive study on the distribution of the heavy metal in the groundwater was conducted to investigate the impact of urbanization in the aquatic media. Water samples either from well or borehole from Fourty different sites in and around, Durgapur, West Bengal were collected for this purpose. The samples were analyzed using Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) for Calcium (Ca), Cobalt (Co), Chromium (Cr), Copper (Cu), Iron (Fe), Potassium (K), Magnesium (Mg), Manganese (Mn), Sodium (Na), Nickel (Ni), Lead (Pb), Zinc (Zn) content and the levels were compared with WHO specified maximum contaminant level as well as permissible limits given by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS). The result obtained from the present study indicates a significant risk to the population of this important emerging ‘smart city’ of eastern India. Because of the toxicity of these metals and the fact that for many tube-wells, dug-wells and bore-wells are the only sources of the water supply for a major fraction of the population in this environment. In this study, an attempt has been made to develop metal contamination risk map.

Keywords: heavy metals, ground water, maximum contamination level, ICP-MS

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Authors: Ramkumar Gunasekaran, John Cater, Vinod Suresh, Haribalan Kumar

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The main objective of this project is to develop a statistical shape model using principal component analysis that could be used for analyzing the shape of the human airway. The ultimate goal of this project is to identify geometric risk factors for diagnosis and management of Obstructive Sleep Apnoea (OSA). Anonymous CBCT scans of 25 individuals were obtained from the Otago Radiology Group. The airways were segmented between the hard-palate and the aryepiglottic fold using snake active contour segmentation. The point data cloud of the segmented images was then fitted with a bi-cubic mesh, and pseudo landmarks were placed to perform PCA on the segmented airway to analyze the shape of the airway and to find the relationship between the shape and OSA risk factors. From the PCA results, the first four modes of variation were found to be significant. Mode 1 was interpreted to be the overall length of the airway, Mode 2 was related to the anterior-posterior width of the retroglossal region, Mode 3 was related to the lateral dimension of the oropharyngeal region and Mode 4 was related to the anterior-posterior width of the oropharyngeal region. All these regions are subjected to the risk factors of OSA.

Keywords: medical imaging, image processing, FEM/BEM, statistical modelling

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Authors: Naif A. Haddad

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Greek, Hellenistic and Roman theatre heritage are exposed to multiple risks at varied times or simultaneously. There is no single reason why a theatre building becomes ‘at risk’, as each case has different circumstances which have led to the theatre building decay. There are complicated processes of destruction and distress that show divergence in theatre building materials' decay. Theatre modern use for cultural performances causes much of the risks concerning the physical structure and authenticity of theatre sites. In addition, there are some deterioration and deformations due to previous poor quality restorations and interventions through related excavation and conservation programmes as also risks to authenticity due to new additions. For preventive conservation, theatre natural and anthropogenic risks management can provide a framework for decision making. These risks to ancient theatre heritage may stem from exposure to one or more risk or synergy of many factors. We, therefore, need to link the theatre natural risks to the risks that come from anthropogenic factors associated with social and economic development. However, this requires a holistic approach, and systematic methodology for understanding these risks from various sources while incorporating specific actions, planning and strategies for each specific risk. Elaborating on recent relevant studies, and ERATO and ATHENA EU projects for ancient theaters and odea and general surveys, this paper attempts to discuss the main aspects of the ancient Greek, Hellenistic and Roman theatres risk related issues. Relevant case studies shall also be discussed and investigated to examine frameworks for risk mitigation, and related guidelines and recommendations that provide a systematic approach for sustainable management and planning in relation mainly to ‘compatible use’ of theatre sites.

Keywords: cultural heritage management, European ancient theatres projects, Anthropogenic risks mitigation, sustainable management and planning, preventive conservation, modern use, compatible use

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Authors: Han Gul Lee

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When water treatments utilities are designed, an initial construction site risk assessment is conducted. This helps us to understand general safety risks that each utility needs to be complemented in the designing stage. Once it’s built, an additional risk reassessment process secures and supplements its disaster management and response plan. Because of its constantly changing surroundings with city renovation and developments, the degree of various risks that each facility has to face changes. Therefore, to improve the preparedness for spill incidents or disasters, emergency managers should run spill simulations with the available scientific technologies. This research used a two-dimensional flow routing model to simulate its spill disaster scenario based on its digital elevation model (DEM) collected with drone technologies. The results of the simulations can help emergency managers to supplement their response plan with concrete situational awareness in advance. Planning based on this simulation model minimizes its potential loss and damage when an incident like earthquakes man-made disaster happens, which could eventually be a threat in a public health context. This pilot research provides an additional paradigm to increase the preparedness to spill disasters. Acknowledgment: This work was supported by Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through Environmental R&D Project on the Disaster Prevention of Environmental Facilities Program funded by Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) (No.202002860001).

Keywords: risk assessment, disaster management, water treatment utilities, situational awareness, drone technologies

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Authors: Wilfred A. Abiaa, Chibundu N. Ezekiel, Benedikt Warth, Michael Sulyok, Paul C. Turner, Rudolf Krska, Paul F. Moundipa

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Mycotoxins are a wide range of toxic secondary metabolites of fungi that contaminate various food commodities worldwide especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Such contamination seriously compromises food safety and quality posing a serious problem for human health as well as to trade and the economy. Their concentrations depend on various factors, such as the commodity itself, climatic conditions, storage conditions, seasonal variances, and processing methods. When humans consume foods contaminated by mycotoxins, they exert toxic effects to their health through various modes of actions. Rural populations in sub-Saharan Africa, are exposed to dietary mycotoxins, but it is supposed that exposure levels and health risks associated with mycotoxins between SSA countries may vary. Dietary exposures and health risk assessment studies have been limited by lack of equipment for the proper assessment of the associated health implications on consumer populations when they eat contaminated agricultural products. As such, mycotoxin research is premature in several SSA nations with product evaluation for mycotoxin loads below/above legislative limits being inadequate. Few nations have health risk assessment reports mainly based on direct quantification of the toxins in foods ('external exposure') and linking food levels with data from food frequency questionnaires. Nonetheless, the assessment of the exposure and health risk to mycotoxins requires more than the traditional approaches. Only a fraction of the mycotoxins in contaminated foods reaches the blood stream and exert toxicity ('internal exposure'). Also, internal exposure is usually smaller than external exposure thus dependence on external exposure alone may induce confounders in risk assessment. Some studies from SSA earlier focused on biomarker analysis mainly on aflatoxins while a few recent studies have concentrated on the multi-biomarker analysis of exposures in urine providing probable associations between observed disease occurrences and dietary mycotoxins levels. As a result, new techniques that could assess the levels of exposures directly in body tissue or fluid, and possibly link them to the disease state of individuals became urgent.

Keywords: mycotoxins, biomarkers, exposure assessment, health risk assessment, sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Manish Madappa, Madhavi Gayathri Raman

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The primary vehicle of human communication is language. A breakdown occurring in any aspect of communication may lead to frustration and isolation among the learners and the teachers. Over seven percent of the population in the world currently experience limitations and those children who exhibit a deviant/deficient language acquisition curve even when being in a language rich environment as their peers may be at risk of having a language disorder or language impairment. The difficulty may be in the word level [vocabulary/word knowledge] and/or the sentence level [syntax/morphology) Children with SLI appear to be developing normally in all aspects except for their receptive and/or expressive language skills. Thus, it is utmost importance to identify children with or at risk of SLI so that an early intervention can foster language and social growth, provide the best possible learning environment with special support for language to be explicitly taught and a step in providing continuous and ongoing support. The present study looks at Kannada English bilingual children and works towards identifying children at risk of “specific language impairment”. The study was conducted through an exploratory study which systematically enquired into the narratives of young Kannada-English bilinguals and to investigate the data for story structure in their narrative formulations. Oral narrative offers a rich source of data about a child’s language use in a relatively natural context. The fundamental objective is to ensure comparability and to be more universal and thus allows for the evaluation narrative text competence. The data was collected from 10 class three students at a primary school in Mysore, Karnataka and analyzed for macrostructure component reflecting the goal directed behavior of a protagonist who is motivated to carry out some kind of action with the intention of attaining a goal. The results show that the children exhibiting a deviation of -1.25 SD are at risk of SLI. Two learners were identified to be at risk of Specific Language Impairment with a standard deviation of more the 1.25 below the mean score.

Keywords: bilingual, oral narratives, SLI, macrostructure

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Authors: Nayera E. Hassan, Sahar A. El-Masry, Rokia A. El Banna, Mones M. Abu Shady, Muhammad Al-Tohamy, Manal Mouhamed Ali, Mehrevan M. Abd El-Moniem, Mona Anwar

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Association between vitamin D, adiponectin and obesity is a matter of debate, as they play important role in linking obesity with different cardiometabolic risk factors. Objectives: Evaluation of the association between metabolic risk factors with both adiponectin and vitamin D levels and that between adiponectin and vitamin D among obese Egyptian children. Subjects and Methods: This case-control cross-sectional study consisted of 65 obese and 30 healthy children, aged 8-11 years. 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH) D) level, serum adiponectin, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) were measured. Results: The mean 25(OH) D levels in the obese and control groups were 29.9± 10.3 and 39.7 ± 12.7 ng/mL respectively (P < 0.001). The mean 25(OH) D and adiponectin levels in the obese were lower than that in the control group (P < 0.0001). 25(OH) D were inversely correlated with body mass index (BMI), triglyceride, total cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C), while adiponectin level were inversely correlated with systolic blood pressure (SBP), and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and positively correlated with HDL-C. However, there is no relation between 25(OH) D and adiponectin levels among obese children and total sample. Conclusion: In spite of strong association between vitamin D and adiponectin levels with metabolic risk factors and obesity, there is no relation between 25(OH) D and adiponectin levels. In obese children, there are significant negative correlations between 25(OH) D with lipid profile, and between adiponectin levels with blood pressure. At certain adiponectin level, the relation between it and BMI disappears.

Keywords: 25-hydroxy vitamin D, adiponectin, lipid profile, blood pressure, children

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Authors: Jae Woong Sull

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Lipid levels are related to the risk of cardiovascular diseases. Cholesterol ester transfer protein (CETP) gene is one of the candidate genes of cardiovascular diseases. A total of 2,304 persons were chosen from a Hospital (N=4,294) in South Korea. Female subjects with the CG/GG genotype had a 2.03 -fold (p=0.0001) higher risk of having abnormal HDL cholesterol levels (<40 mg/dL) than subjects with the CC genotype. Male subjects with the CG/GG genotype had a 1.34 -fold (p=0.0019) higher risk than subjects with the CC genotype. When analyzed by body mass index, the association with CETP was much stronger in male subjects with BMI>=25.69 (OR=1.55, 95% CI: 1.15-2.07, P=0.0037) than in male lean subjects. When analyzed by family history of diabetes, the association with CETP was much stronger in male subjects with positive family history of low physical activity (OR=4.82, 95% CI: 1.86-12.5, P=0.0012) than in male subjects with negative family history of diabetes. This study clearly demonstrates that genetic variants in CETP influence HDL cholesterol levels in Korean adults.

Keywords: CETP, diabetes, obesity, polymorphisms

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Authors: Kim Kennedy, Daren Gibson, Stephanie Flukes, Chandra Diwakarla, Lisa Spalding, Leanne Pilkington, Andrew Redfern

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Introduction: Head and neck cancers (HNC) are often associated with the development of non-HNC primaries, as the risk factors that predispose patients to HNC are often risk factors for other cancers. Aim: We sought to evaluate whether there was an increased risk of smoking and alcohol-related cancers and also other cancers in HNC patients and to evaluate whether there is a difference between the rates of non-HNC primaries in Aboriginal compared with non-Aboriginal HNC patients. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of 320 HNC patients from a single center in Western Australia, identifying 80 Aboriginal and 240 non-Aboriginal patients matched on a 1:3 ratio by sites, histology, rurality, and age. We collected data on the patient characteristics, tumour features, treatments, outcomes, and past and subsequent HNCs and non-HNC primaries. Results: In the overall study population, there were 86 patients (26.9%) with a metachronous or synchronous non-HNC primary. Non-HNC primaries were actually significantly more common in the non-Aboriginal population compared with the Aboriginal population (30% vs. 17.5%, p=0.02); however, half of these were patients with cutaneous squamous or basal cell carcinomas (cSCC/BCC) only. When cSCC/BCCs were excluded, non-Aboriginal patients had a similar rate as Aboriginal patients (16.7% vs. 15%, p=0.73). There were clearly more cSCC/BCCs in non-Aboriginal patients compared with Aboriginal patients (16.7% vs. 2.5%, p=0.001) and more patients with melanoma (2.5% vs. 0%, p value not significant (p=NS). Rates of most cancers were similar between non-Aboriginal and Aboriginal patients, including prostate (2.9% vs. 3.8%), colorectal (2.9% vs. 2.5%), kidney (1.2% vs. 1.2%), and these rates appeared comparable to Australian Age Standardised Incidence Rates (ASIR) in the general community. Oesophageal cancer occurred at double the rate in Aboriginal patients (3.8%) compared with non-Aboriginal patients (1.7%), which was far in excess of ASIRs which estimated a lifetime risk of 0.59% in the general population. Interestingly lung cancer rates did not appear to be significantly increased in our cohort, with 2.5% of Aboriginal patients and 3.3% of non-Aboriginal patients having lung cancer, which is in line with ASIRs which estimates a lifetime risk of 5% (by age 85yo). Interestingly the rate of Glioma in the non-Aboriginal population was higher than the ASIR, with 0.8% of non-Aboriginal patients developing Glioma, with Australian averages predicting a 0.6% lifetime risk in the general population. As these are small numbers, this finding may well be due to chance. Unsurprisingly, second HNCs occurred at an increased incidence in our cohort, in 12.5% of Aboriginal patients and 11.2% of non-Aboriginal patients, compared to an ASIR of 17 cases per 100,000 persons, estimating a lifetime risk of 1.70%. Conclusions: Overall, 26.9% of patients had a non-HNC primary. When cSCC/BCCs were excluded, Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal patients had similar rates of non-HNC primaries, although non-Aboriginal patients had a significantly higher rate of cSCC/BCCs. Aboriginal patients had double the rate of oesophageal primaries; however, this was not statistically significant, possibly due to small case numbers.

Keywords: head and neck cancer, synchronous and metachronous primaries, other primaries, Aboriginal

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Authors: Nidhin Dani Abraham, T. K. Sri Shilpa

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Asset liability management is an important aspect in banking business. Moreover, the today’s banking is based on BASEL III which strictly regulates on the counterparty default. This paper focuses on prediction and analysis of counter party default risk, which is a type of risk occurs when the customers fail to repay the amount back to the lender (bank or any financial institutions). This paper proposes an approach to reduce the counterparty risk occurring in the financial institutions using an appropriate data mining technique and thus predicts the occurrence of NPA. It also helps in asset building and restructuring quality. Liability management is very important to carry out banking business. To know and analyze the depth of liability of bank, a suitable technique is required. For that a data mining technique is being used to predict the dormant behaviour of various deposit bank customers. Various models are implemented and the results are analyzed of saving bank deposit customers. All these data are cleaned using data cleansing approach from the bank data warehouse.

Keywords: data mining, asset liability management, BASEL III, banking

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Authors: Ali Saeed Alghamdi, Basel Mazen Alsolami, Basel Saeed Alghamdi, Muhanad Saleh Alzahrani Alamri, Salman Anwar Thabet, Abdulhalim J. Kinsara

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Objectives: This study measures the knowledge of the cardiovascular disease among the general population in western regions of Saudi Arabia, and it aimed to increase the level of awareness about cardiovascular diseases among the general population by providing an awareness lecture that included information about the risk factors, major symptoms, and prevention of cardiovascular diseases. The lecture has been attached at the end of the questionnaire. Setting: This study was conducted through an online questionnaire that included our aim and main objectives that targeted the general population in the Western regions of Saudi Arabia (Makkah and Madinah regions). Participants: This study participants were 460 collected through an online questionnaire. Methods: All Saudi citizens and residents who live in the western region of Saudi Arabia aged 18 years and above will be invited to participate voluntarily. A pre-structured questionnaire was designed to collect data on age, gender, marital status, education level, occupation, lifestyle habits, and history of heart diseases, with cardiac symptoms and risk factors sections. Results: The majority of respondents were females (74.8%) and Saudis. The knowledge about cardiovascular disease risk factors was weak. Only (18.5%) scores an excellent response regarding risk factors awareness. Lack of exercise, stress, and obesity were the most known risk factors. Regarding cardiovascular disease symptoms, chest pain scores the highest symptom (87.6%) among other symptoms like dyspnea, syncope, and excessive sweating. Participants revealed a poor awareness regarding cardiovascular disease symptoms also (0.9%). However, preventable factors for cardiovascular diseases were more knowledgeable than others categories in this study (60% fall into excellent knowledge). Smoking cessation, normal cholesterol level, and normal blood pressure score the highest preventable methods (92.2%), (88.6%), and (78.7%) respectively. 83.7% of the participant have attended the awareness lecture, and 99 of the attendees reported that the lecture increased their knowledge about cardiovascular disease. Conclusion: This study discussed the level of community awareness of cardiovascular disease in terms of symptoms, risk factors, and protective factors. We found a huge lack of the participant's level of knowledge about the disease and how to prevent it. Moreover, we measure the prevalence of the comorbidities among our participants (diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia/ hypertriglyceridemia) and their extent of adherence to their medication. In conclusion, this study not only demonstrates awareness of cardiovascular disease risk factors, symptoms, management, and the association between each domain but also provides educational material. Further educational material and campaigns are required to increase awareness and knowledge about cardiovascular diseases.

Keywords: awareness, cardiovascular diseases, education, prevention, risk factors

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Authors: Despoina Andrioti Bygvraa, Ida-Maja Hassellöv, George Charalambous

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Exhaust gas cleaning systems, also known as scrubbers, are today widely used to allow for the use of High Sulphur Heavy Fuel Oil and still comply with the regulations limiting sulphur content in marine fuels. There are extensive concerns about environmental consequences, especially in the Baltic Sea, from the wide-scale use of scrubbers, as the wash water is acidic (ca pH 3) and contains high concentrations of toxic, carcinogenic, and mutagenic substances. The aim of this feasibility study is to investigate the potential adverse effects on seafarers’ health with the ultimate goal of raising awareness of chemical-related health and safety issues in the shipping environment. The project got funding from the Swedish Foundation. The team will extend previously compiled data on scrubber wash water concentrations of hazardous substances and pH to include the use of strong base in closed-loop scrubbers, and scoping assessment on handling and disposing practices. Based on the findings (a), a systematic review of risk assessment will follow to show the risk of exposures, the establishment of the hazardous levels for human health as well as the respective prevention practices. In addition, the researchers will perform (b) a systematic review to identify facilitators and barriers of the crew on compliance with the safe handling of chemicals. The study will run for 12 months, delivering (a) a risk assessment inventory with risk exposures and (b) a course description of safe handling practices. This feasibility study could provide valuable knowledge on how pollutants found in scrubbers should be considered from a human health perspective to facilitate evidence-based informed decisions in future technology- and policy development to make shipping a safer, healthier, and more attractive workplace.

Keywords: health and safety, seafarers, scrubbers, chemicals, risk exposures

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Authors: Allaeddine Athmani, Abdelhacine Gouasmia, Tiago Ferreira, Romeu Vicente

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Seismic vulnerability assessment of masonry buildings is a fundamental issue even for moderate to low seismic hazard regions. This fact is even more important when dealing with old structures such as those located in Annaba city (Algeria), which the majority of dates back to the French colonial era from 1830. This category of buildings is in high risk due to their highly degradation state, heterogeneous materials and intrusive modifications to structural and non-structural elements. Furthermore, they are usually shelter a dense population, which is exposed to such risk. In order to undertake a suitable seismic risk mitigation strategies and reinforcement process for such structures, it is essential to estimate their seismic resistance capacity at a large scale. In this sense, two seismic vulnerability index methods and damage estimation have been adapted and applied to a pilot-scale building area located in the moderate seismic hazard region of Annaba city: The first one based on the EMS-98 building typologies, and the second one derived from the Italian GNDT approach. To perform this task, the authors took the advantage of an existing data survey previously performed for other purposes. The results obtained from the application of the two methods were integrated and compared using a geographic information system tool (GIS), with the ultimate goal of supporting the city council of Annaba for the implementation of risk mitigation and emergency planning strategies.

Keywords: Annaba city, EMS98 concept, GNDT method, old city center, seismic vulnerability index, unreinforced masonry buildings

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Authors: Jake Tempo, Taylor Smithurst, Jen Leah, Skye Waddingham, Amanda Catlin, Richard Cetti

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Introduction: Percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) is the gold-standard procedure for removing large or complex renal stones. Many operating positions can be used, and the debate over the ideal position continues. PCNL can be a long procedure during which patients can sustain pressure injuries. These injuries are often underreported in the literature. Interface pressure mapping records the pressure loading between a surface and the patient. High pressures with prolonged loading result in ischaemia, muscle deformation, and reperfusion which can cause skin breakdown and muscular injury. We compared the peak pressure indexes of common PCNL positions to identify positions which may be at high risk of pressure injuries. We hope the data can be used to adapt high-risk positions so that the PPI can be lessened by either adapting the positions or by using adjuncts to lower PPI. Materials and Methods: We placed a 23-year-old male subject in fourteen different PCNL positions while performing interface pressure mapping. The subject was 179 cm with a weight of 63.3 kg, BMI 19.8kg/m². Results: Supine positions had a higher mean PPI (119mmHg (41-137)) compared to prone positions (64mmHg (32-89)) (p=0.046 two tailed t-test). The supine flexed position with a bolster under the flank produced the highest PPI (194mmHg), and this was at the sacrum. Peak pressure indexes >100mmHg were recorded in eight PCNL positions. Conclusion: Supine PCNL positions produce higher PPI than prone PCNL positions. Our study shows where ‘at risk’ bony prominences are for each PCNL position. Surgeons must ensure these areas are protected during prolonged operations.

Keywords: PCNL, pressure ulcer, interface pressure mapping, surgery

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