Search results for: Risk management

Authors: Sirus Mohammadi, Sara Ansari, Darush dehghan, Habib Hoshyari

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Batteries for storage of electricity from solar and wind generation farms are a key element in the success of sustainability. In recent years, due to large integration of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) like wind turbine and photovoltaic unit into the Micro-Grid (MG), the necessity of Battery Energy Storage (BES) has increased dramatically. The BES has several benefits and advantages in the MG-based applications such as short term power supply, power quality improvement, facilitating integration of RES, ancillary service and arbitrage. This paper presents the cost-based formulation to determine the optimal size of the BES in the operation management of MG. Also, some restrictions, i.e. power capacity of Distributed Generators (DGs), power and energy capacity of BES, charge/discharge efficiency of BES, operating reserve and load demand satisfaction should be considered as well. In this paper, a methodology is proposed for the optimal allocation and economic analysis of ESS in MGs on the basis of net present value (NPV). As the optimal operation of an MG strongly depends on the arrangement and allocation of its ESS, economic operation strategies and optimal allocation methods of the ESS devices are required for the MG.

Keywords: microgrid, energy storage system, optimal sizing, net present value

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Authors: Aakriti Chetan Shah, Elle Sein

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Background/purpose: Group B Streptococcus(GBS) is the leading cause of severe early onset infection in newborns, with the incidence of Early Onset Group B Streptococcus (EOGBS) in the UK and Ireland rising from 0.48 to 0.57 per 1000 births from 2000 to 2015. A WHO study conducted in 2017, has shown that 38.5% of cases can result in stillbirth and infant deaths. This is an important problem to consider as 20% of women worldwide have GBS colonisation and can suffer from these detrimental effects. Current Royal College of Obstetricians and Midwives (RCOG) guidelines do not recommend bacteriological screening for pregnant women due to its low sensitivity in antenatal screening correlating with the neonate having GBS but advise a patient information leaflet be given to pregnant women. However, a Healthcare Safety Investigation Branch (HSIB) 2019 learning report found that only 50% of trusts and health boards reported giving GBS information leaflets to all pregnant mothers. Therefore, this audit aimed to assess current practices of information dissemination about GBS at Chelsea & Westminster (C&W) Hospital. Methodology: A quantitative cross-sectional study was carried out using a questionnaire based on the RCOG GBS guidelines and the HSIB Learning report. The study was conducted in antenatal clinics at Chelsea & Westminster Hospital, from 29th January 2021 to 14th February 2021, with twenty-two practicing obstetricians and midwives participating in the survey. The main outcome measure was the proportion of obstetricians and midwives who disseminate information about GBS to pregnant women, and the reasons behind why they do or do not. Results: 22 obstetricians and midwives responded with 18 complete responses. Of which 12 were obstetricians and 6 were midwives. Only 17% of clinical staff routinely inform all pregnant women about GBS, and do so at varying timeframes of the pregnancy, with an equal split in the first, second and third trimester. The primary reason for not informing women about GBS was influenced by three key factors: Deemed relevant only for patients at high risk of GBS, lack of time in clinic appointments and no routine NHS screening available. Interestingly 58% of staff in the antenatal clinic believe it is necessary to inform all women about GBS and its importance. Conclusion: It is vital for obstetricians and midwives to inform all pregnant women about GBS due to the high prevalence of incidental carriers in the population, and the harmful effects it can cause for neonates. Even though most clinicians believe it is important to inform all pregnant women about GBS, most do not. To ensure that RCOG and HSIB recommendations are followed, we recommend that women should be given this information at 28 weeks gestation in the antenatal clinic. Proposed implementations include an information leaflet to be incorporated into the Mum and Baby app, an informative video and end-to-end digital clinic documentation to include this information sharing prompt.

Keywords: group B Streptococcus, early onset sepsis, Antenatal care, Neonatal morbidity, GBS

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Authors: Mengmeng Du, Noboru Noguchi, Hiroshi Okamoto, Noriko Kobayashi

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This paper introduced a topographic mapping system with time-saving and simplicity advantages based on integration of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data and Post Processing Kinematic Global Positioning System (PPK GPS) data. This topographic mapping system used a low-altitude Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) as a platform to conduct land survey in a low-cost, efficient, and totally autonomous manner. An experiment in a small-scale sugarcane farmland was conducted in Queensland, Australia. Subsequently, we synchronized LiDAR distance measurements that were corrected by using attitude information from gyroscope with PPK GPS coordinates for generation of precision topographic maps, which could be further utilized for such applications like precise land leveling and drainage management. The results indicated that LiDAR distance measurements and PPK GPS altitude reached good accuracy of less than 0.015 m.

Keywords: land survey, light detection and ranging, post processing kinematic global positioning system, precision agriculture, topographic map, unmanned aerial vehicle

Procedia PDF Downloads 236

Authors: Wanyi Zhu, Xia Ming, Huafeng Wang, Junda Chen, Lu Liu, Jiangwei Jiang, Guohua Liu

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Anomaly detection is a first and imperative step needed to respond to unexpected problems and to assure high performance and security in large data center management. This paper presents an online anomaly detection system through an innovative approach of ensemble machine learning and adaptive differentiation algorithms, and applies them to performance data collected from a continuous monitoring system for multi-tier web applications running in Alibaba data centers. We evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of this algorithm with production traffic data and compare with the traditional anomaly detection approaches such as a static threshold and other deviation-based detection techniques. The experiment results show that our algorithm correctly identifies the unexpected performance variances of any running application, with an acceptable false positive rate. This proposed approach has already been deployed in real-time production environments to enhance the efficiency and stability in daily data center operations.

Keywords: Alibaba data centers, anomaly detection, big data computation, dynamic ensemble learning

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Authors: James Pietris

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Glaucoma is a collection of irreversible optic neuropathies which, if left untreated, lead to severe visual field loss. These diseases are a leading cause of blindness across the globe and are estimated to affect approximately 80 million people, particularly women and people of Asian descent.1This represents a major burden on healthcare systems worldwide. Recently, there has been increasing interest in the potential of nicotinamide (vitamin B3) as a novel option in the management of glaucoma. This review aims to analyse the currently available literature to determine whether there is evidence of an association between nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD+) and glaucomatous optic neuropathy and whether nicotinamide has the potential to prevent or reverse these effects. The literature showed a strong connection between reduced NAD+ levels and retinal ganglion cell dysfunction through multiple different studies. There is also evidence of the positive effect of nicotinamide supplementation on retinal ganglion cell function in models of mouse glaucoma and in a study involving humans. Based on the literature findings, a recommendation has been made that more research into the efficacy, appropriate dosing, and potential side effects of nicotinamide supplementation is needed before it can be definitively determined whether it is appropriate for widespread prophylactic and therapeutic use against glaucoma in humans.

Keywords: glaucoma, nicotinamide, vitamin B3, optic neuropathy

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Authors: Yujin Jeong, Youkyung Son, Myounghwan Choi, Sanghyub Lee, Sangyeol Lee, Changho Hwang, Kyo-in Koo

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Dysphasia is difficulty in swallowing food because of oral cavity impairments induced by stroke, muscle damage, tumor. Intermittent oro-esophageal (IOE) tube feeding is one of the well-known feeding methods for the dysphasia patients. However, it is hard to insert at the proper position in esophagus. In this study, we design and fabricate the IOE tube guide using 3-dimensional (3D) printer. The printed IOE tube is tested in a mannequin (Airway Management Trainer, Co., Ltd., Copenhagen, Denmark) mimicking human’s esophagus. The gag reflex point is measured as the design point in the mannequin. To avoid the gag reflex, we design various shapes of IOE tube guide. One structure is separated into three parts; biting part, part through oral cavity, connecting part to oro-esophageal. We designed 6 types of IOE tube guide adjusting length and angle of these three parts. To evaluate the IOE tube guide, it is inserted in the mannequin, and through the inserted guide, an endoscopic camera successfully arrived at the oro-esophageal. We had planned to apply this mannequin-based design experience to patients in near future.

Keywords: dysphagia, feeding method, IOE tube guide, 3-D printer

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Authors: Anne Kubai

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Since the Lisbon Summit in 2007, discussion and dialogue on ways of enhancing collaboration between Africa and the EU on the issues of migration, mobility and employment has intensified. The Africa-EU Partnership on migration, mobility and employment aims to provide far-reaching responses on migration and employment challenges; and facilitate mobility of people in Africa and the EU. However, since the outcomes of the proposed policies depend on the political interests and institutional capacities of both the EU and African states that are involved, the results have so far been uncoordinated and scattered. Also, many European countries have eased their entry regulations with regard to highly skilled migrants, and there is need to explore the implications of such changes. Therefore, this contribution will address the following questions: How has the progression of migration and border management in the Nordic countries, particularly Sweden, affected the flow and mobility of highly skilled migrants from Africa? What is the possible impact of the changes in receiving countries (such as introduction of tuition fees and more stringent admission regulations for foreign students in Sweden) on skilled migration and mobility? How can highly skilled immigrants be a source of research knowledge between international and local institutions and researchers both in sending and receiving countries?

Keywords: academic mobility, skilled, African, knowledge, research, migrants, Sweden

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Authors: Ahmed S. Afifi, Ahmed Magdy

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Satellite monitoring is an essential tool to study, understand, and map large-scale environmental changes that affect humans, climate, and biodiversity. The Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) instrument provides a high collection of data in all-weather, short revisit time, and high spatial resolution that can be used effectively in flood management. Floods occur when an overflow of water submerges dry land that requires to be distinguished from flooded areas. In this study, we use global flood mapper (GFM), a new google earth engine application that allows users to quickly map floods using Sentinel-1 SAR. The GFM enables the users to adjust manually the flood map parameters, e.g., the threshold for Z-value for VV and VH bands and the elevation and slope mask threshold. The composite R:G:B image results by coupling the bands of Sentinel-1 (VH:VV:VH) reduces false classification to a large extent compared to using one separate band (e.g., VH polarization band). The flood mapping algorithm in the GFM and the Otsu thresholding are compared with Sentinel-2 optical data. And the results show that the GFM algorithm can overcome the misclassification of a flooded area in An Giang, Vietnam.

Keywords: SAR backscattering, Sentinel-1, flood mapping, disaster

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Authors: Suruchi

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This study aims to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of fog occurrences across Czech Republic. It utilizes satellite imagery and other data sources to achieve this goal. The main objective is to understand the role of fog in atmospheric deposition processes and its potential impact on the environment and ecosystems. Through satellite image analysis, the study will identify and categorize different types of fog, including radiation fog, orographic fog, and mountain fog. Fog detection algorithms and cloud type products will be evaluated to assess the frequency and distribution of fog events throughout the Czech Republic. Furthermore, the regions covered by fog will be classified based on their fog type and associated pollution levels. This will provide insights into the variability in fog characteristics and its implications for atmospheric deposition. Spatial analysis techniques will be used to pinpoint areas prone to frequent fog events and evaluate their pollution levels. Statistical methods will be employed to analyze patterns in fog occurrence over time and its connection with environmental factors. The ultimate goal of this research is to offer fresh perspectives on fog's role in atmospheric deposition processes, enhancing our understanding of its environmental significance and informing future research and environmental management initiatives.

Keywords: pollution, GIS, FOG, satellie, atmospheric deposition

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Authors: Asghar Arif

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Lung cancer has been recognized as one of the greatest common cancers, causing the annual mortality rate of about 1.2 million people in the world. Lung cancer is the most prevalent cancer in men and the third-most common cancer among women (after breast and digestive cancers).Recent evidences have shown the inflammatory process as one of the potential factors of cancer. Tuberculosis (TB), pneumonia, and chronic bronchitis are among the most important inflammation-inducing factors in the lungs, among which TB has a more profound role in the emergence of cancer.TB is one of the important mortality factors throughout the world, and 205,000 death cases are reported annually due to this disease. Chronic inflammation and fibrosis due to TB can induce genetic mutation and alternations. Parenchyma tissue of lung is involved in both diseases of TB and lung cancer, and continuous cough in lung cancer, morphological vascular variations, lymphocytosis processes, and generation of immune system mediators such as interleukins, are all among the factors leading to the hypothesis regarding the role of TB in lung cancer Some reports have shown that the induction of necrosis and apoptosis or TB reactivation, especially in patients with immune-deficiency, may result in increasing IL-17 and TNF_α, which will either decrease P53 activity or increase the expression of Bcl-2, decrease Bax-T, and cause the inhibition of caspase-3 expression due to decreasing the expression of mitochondria cytochrome oxidase. It has been also indicated that following the injection of BCG vaccine, the host immune system will be reinforced, and in particular, the rates of gamma interferon, nitric oxide, and interleukin-2 are increased. Therefore, CD4 + lymphocyte function will be improved, and the person will be immune against cancer.Numerous prospective studies have so far been conducted on the role of TB in lung cancer, and it seems that this disease is effective in that particular cancer.One of the main challenges of lung cancer is its correct and timely diagnosis. Unfortunately, clinical symptoms (such as continuous cough, hemoptysis, weight loss, fever, chest pain, dyspnea, and loss of appetite) and radiological images are similar in TB and lung cancer. Therefore, anti-TB drugs are routinely prescribed for the patients in the countries with high prevalence of TB, like Pakistan. Regarding the similarity in clinical symptoms and radiological findings of lung cancer, proper diagnosis is necessary for TB and respiratory infections due to nontuberculousmycobacteria (NTM). Some of the drug resistive TB cases are, in fact, lung cancer or NTM lung infections. Acid-fast staining and histological study of phlegm and bronchial washing, culturing and polymerase chain reaction TB are among the most important solutions for differential diagnosis of these diseases. Briefly, it is assumed that TB is one of the risk factors for cancer. Numerous studies have been conducted in this regard throughout the world, and it has been observed that there is a significant relationship between previous TB infection and lung cancer. However, to prove this hypothesis, further and more extensive studies are required. In addition, as the clinical symptoms and radiological findings of TB, lung cancer, and non-TB mycobacteria lung infections are similar, they can be misdiagnosed as TB.

Keywords: TB and lung cancer, TB people, TB servivers, TB and HIV aids

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Authors: Carolina N. França, Jônatas B. do Amaral, Maria C.O. Izar, Ighor L. Teixeira, Francisco A. Fonseca

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Introduction: Atherosclerosis is a progressive disease, characterized by lipid and fibrotic element deposition in large-caliber arteries. Conditions related to the development of atherosclerosis, as dyslipidemia, hypertension, diabetes, and smoking are associated with endothelial dysfunction. There is a frequent recurrence of cardiovascular outcomes after acute myocardial infarction and, at this sense, cycles of mobilization of monocyte subtypes (classical, intermediate and nonclassical) secondary to myocardial infarction may determine the colonization of atherosclerotic plaques in different stages of the development, contributing to early recurrence of ischemic events. The recruitment of different monocyte subsets during inflammatory process requires the expression of chemokine receptors CCR2, CCR5, and CX3CR1, to promote the migration of monocytes to the inflammatory site. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of lipid-lowering treatment by six months in the monocyte phenotype and chemokine receptor levels of patients after Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI). Methods: This is a PROBE (prospective, randomized, open-label trial with blinded endpoints) study (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02428374). Adult patients (n=147) of both genders, ageing 18-75 years, were randomized in a 2x2 factorial design for treatment with rosuvastatin 20 mg/day or simvastatin 40 mg/day plus ezetimibe 10 mg/day as well as ticagrelor 90 mg 2x/day and clopidogrel 75 mg, in addition to conventional AMI therapy. Blood samples were collected at baseline, after one month and six months of treatment. Monocyte subtypes (classical - inflammatory, intermediate - phagocytic and nonclassical – anti-inflammatory) were identified, quantified and characterized by flow cytometry, as well as the expressions of the chemokine receptors (CCR2, CCR5 and CX3CR1) were also evaluated in the mononuclear cells. Results: After six months of treatment, there was an increase in the percentage of classical monocytes and reduction in the nonclassical monocytes (p=0.038 and p < 0.0001 Friedman Test), without differences for intermediate monocytes. Besides, classical monocytes had higher expressions of CCR5 and CX3CR1 after treatment, without differences related to CCR2 (p < 0.0001 for CCR5 and CX3CR1; p=0.175 for CCR2). Intermediate monocytes had higher expressions of CCR5 and CX3CR1 and lower expression of CCR2 (p = 0.003; p < 0.0001 and p = 0.011, respectively). Nonclassical monocytes had lower expressions of CCR2 and CCR5, without differences for CX3CR1 (p < 0.0001; p = 0.009 and p = 0.138, respectively). There were no differences after the comparison between the four treatment arms. Conclusion: The data suggest a time-dependent modulation of classical and nonclassical monocytes and chemokine receptor levels. The higher percentage of classical monocytes (inflammatory cells) suggest a residual inflammatory risk, even under preconized treatments to AMI. Indeed, these changes do not seem to be affected by choice of the lipid-lowering strategy.

Keywords: acute myocardial infarction, chemokine receptors, lipid-lowering treatment, monocyte subtypes

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Authors: Deepak Raj Bhat, Kazushige Hayashi, Yorihiro Tanaka, Shigeru Ogita, Akihiko Wakai

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Slow-moving landslides are one of the major natural disasters in mountainous regions. Therefore, study of the creep displacement behaviour of a landslide and associated geological and geotechnical issues seem important. This study has addressed and evaluated the slow-moving behaviour of landslide using the 2D-FEM based Elasto-viscoplastic constitutive model. To our based knowledge, two new control constitutive parameters were incorporated in the numerical model for the first time to better understand the slow-moving behaviour of a landslide. First, the predicted time histories of horizontal displacement of the landslide are presented and discussed, which may be useful for landslide displacement prediction in the future. Then, the simulation results of deformation pattern and shear strain pattern is presented and discussed. Moreover, the possible failure mechanism along the slip surface of such landslide is discussed based on the simulation results. It is believed that this study will be useful to understand the slow-moving behaviour of landslides, and at the same time, long-term monitoring and management of the landslide disaster will be much easier.

Keywords: numerical simulation, ground water fluctuations, elasto-viscoplastic model, slow-moving behaviour

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Authors: Sehrish Iftikhar, Ahmad Ali Shahid, Kiran Nawaz, Waheed Anwar

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Discovery and development of new compounds require intense studies in chemistry, biochemistry. Numerous experiments under laboratory-, greenhouse- and field conditions can be performed to select suitable candidates and to understand their full potential. Novel fungicides are fundamental to combat plant diseases. Fusarium solani is important plant pathogen. New broad spectrum foliar fungicides against complex II were designed in this study. Complex II, namely succinate dehydrogenase (SDH), or succinate quinone oxidoreductase (SQR) is a multi-subunit enzyme at the crossroads of TCA and ETC at the inner mitochondrial membrane. The need for new and innovative fungicides is driven by resistance management, regulatory hurdles and increasing customer expectations amongst others. Fungicidal activity was assessed for the effect on mycelial growth and spore germination of the fungi using fungicide amended media assay. In mycelial growth assay compounds C10 and C6 were highly active against all the isolates. The compounds C1 and C10 were found most potent in spore germination test. It fully proved that the SDHIs designed in this paper displayed as good inhibitory effects against Fusarium solani.

Keywords: Wilt, Fusarium, SDH, antifungal

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Authors: Awad Elkhadir, Rajab M. Ben Yousef

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Introduction: The production of high-quality medical images by radiology technologists is useful in diagnosing and treating various injuries and diseases. However, the factors affecting the role of radiology technologists in image interpretation in Sudan have not been investigated widely. Methods: Cross-sectional study has been employed by recruiting ten radiology college deans in Sudan. The questionnaire was distributed online, and obtained data were analyzed using Microsoft Excel and IBM-SPSS version 16.0 to generate descriptive statistics. Results: The study results have shown that half of the deans were doubtful about the readiness of Sudan to implement the role of radiology technologist specialist in image interpretation. The majority of them (60%) believed that this issue had been most strongly pushed by researchers over the past decade. The factors affecting the implementation of the radiology technologist specialist role in image interpretation included; education/training (100%), recognition (30%), technical issues (30%), people-related issues (20%), management changes (30%), government role (30%), costs (10%), and timings (20%). Conclusion: The study concluded that there is a need for a change in image interpretation by radiology technologists in Sudan.

Keywords: development, image interpretation, implementation, radiology technologist specialist, Sudan

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Authors: Ming Wei

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Over the past two decades, Location Based Service (LBS) data have been increasingly applied to urban and transportation studies due to their comprehensiveness and consistency. However, compared to other LBS data including mobile phone data, GPS and social networking platforms, smart card data collected from public transport users have arguably yet to be fully exploited in urban systems analysis. By using five weekdays of passenger travel transaction data taken from go card – Southeast Queensland’s transit smart card – this paper analyses the spatiotemporal distribution of passenger movement with regard to the land use patterns in Brisbane. Work and residential places for public transport commuters were identified after extracting journeys-to-work patterns. Our results show that the locations of the workplaces identified from the go card data and residential suburbs are largely consistent with those that were marked in the land use map. However, the intensity for some residential locations in terms of population or commuter densities do not match well between the map and those derived from the go card data. This indicates that the misalignment between residential areas and workplaces to a certain extent, shedding light on how enhancements to service management and infrastructure expansion might be undertaken.

Keywords: big data, smart card data, travel pattern, land use

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Authors: Thaís T. Valério Caetano, João Máximo De Siqueira, Carlos Alexandre Carollo, Arthur Ladeira Macedo, Vanessa C. Stein

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Nicotiana glauca, commonly known as wild tobacco or tobacco bush, belongs to the Solanaceae family. It is native to South America but has become naturalized in various regions, including Australia, California, Africa, and the Mediterranean. N. glauca is listed in the Global Invasive Species Database (GISD) and the Invasive Species Compendium (CABI). It is known for producing pyridine alkaloids, including anabasine, which is highly toxic. Anabasine is predominantly found in the leaves and can cause severe health issues such as neuromuscular blockade, respiratory arrest, and cardiovascular problems when ingested. Mistaken identity with edible plants like spinach has resulted in food poisoning cases in Israel and Brazil. Anabasine, a minor alkaloid constituent of tobacco, may contribute to tobacco addiction by mimicking or enhancing the effects of nicotine. Therefore, it is essential to investigate the production pattern of anabasine and its relationship to the developmental stages of the plant. This study aimed to establish the relationship between the phenological plant age, cultivation place, and the increase in anabasine concentration, which can lead to human intoxication cases. In this study, N. glauca plants were collected from three different rural areas in Brazil for a year to examine leaves at various stages of development. Samples were also obtained from cultivated plants in Marilândia, Minas Gerais, Brazil, as well as from Divinópolis, Minas Gerais, Brazil, and Arraial do Cabo, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In vitro cultivated plants on MS medium were included in the study. The collected leaves were dried, powdered, and stored. Alkaloid extraction was performed using a methanol and water mixture, followed by liquid-liquid extraction with chloroform. The anabasine content was determined using HPLC-DAD analysis with nicotine as a standard. The results indicated that anabasine production increases with the plant's development, peaking in adult leaves during the reproduction phase and declining afterward. In vitro, plants showed similar anabasine production to young leaves. The successful adaptation of N. glauca in new environments poses a global problem, and the correlation between anabasine production and the plant's developmental stages has been understudied. The presence of substances produced by the plant can pose a risk to other species, especially when mistaken for edible plants. The findings from this study shed light on the pattern of anabasine production and its association with plant development, contributing to a better understanding of the potential risks associated with N. glauca and the importance of accurate identification.

Keywords: nicotiana glauca graham, global invasive species database, alkaloids, toxic

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Authors: Hamid Goharnejad, Amir Hossein Eghbali

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Recent investigations have demonstrated the global sea level rise due to climate change impacts. In this study climate changes study the effects of increasing water level in the strait of Hormuz. The probable changes of sea level rise should be investigated to employ the adaption strategies. The climatic output data of a GCM (General Circulation Model) named CGCM3 under climate change scenario of A1b and A2 were used. Among different variables simulated by this model, those of maximum correlation with sea level changes in the study region and least redundancy among themselves were selected for sea level rise prediction by using stepwise regression. One models of Discrete Wavelet artificial Neural Network (DWNN) was developed to explore the relationship between climatic variables and sea level changes. In these models, wavelet was used to disaggregate the time series of input and output data into different components and then ANN was used to relate the disaggregated components of predictors and predictands to each other. The results showed in the Shahid Rajae Station for scenario A1B sea level rise is among 64 to 75 cm and for the A2 Scenario sea level rise is among 90 to 105 cm. Furthermore the result showed a significant increase of sea level at the study region under climate change impacts, which should be incorporated in coastal areas management.

Keywords: climate change scenarios, sea-level rise, strait of Hormuz, forecasting

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Authors: Sarah Maiter

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Heightened globalization, migration, displacement of citizens, and refugee needs is putting increasing demand for approaches to social services for diverse populations that responds to families to ensure the safety and protection of vulnerable members while providing supports and services. Along with this social works re-focus on socially just approaches to practice increasingly asks social workers to consider the challenging circumstances of families when providing services rather than a focus on individual shortcomings alone. Child protection workers then struggle to ensure safety of children while assessing the needs of families. This assessment can prove to be difficult when providing services to immigrant, refugee, and racially diverse families as understanding of and familiarity with these families is often limited. Furthermore, child protection intervention in western countries is state mandated having legal authority when intervening in the lives of families where child protection concerns have been identified. Within this context, racialized immigrant and refugee families are at risk of misunderstandings that can result in interventions that are overly intrusive, unhelpful, and harsh. Research shows disproportionality and overrepresentation of racial and ethnic minorities, and immigrant families in the child protection system. Reasons noted include: a) possibilities of racial bias in reporting and substantiating abuse, b) struggles on the part of workers when working with families from diverse ethno-racial backgrounds and who are immigrants and may have limited proficiency in the national language of the country, c) interventions during crisis and differential ongoing services for these families, d) diverse contexts of these families that poses additional challenges for families and children, and e) possible differential definitions of child maltreatment. While cultural and ethnic diversity in child rearing approaches have been cited as contributors to child protection concerns, this approach should be viewed cautiously as it can result in stereotyping and generalizing that then results in inappropriate assessment and intervention. However, poverty and the lack of social supports, both well-known contributors to child protection concerns, also impact these families disproportionately. Child protection systems, therefore, need to continue to examine policy and practice approaches with these families that ensures safety of children while balancing the needs of families. This presentation provides data from several research studies that examined definitions of child maltreatment among a sample of racialized immigrant families, experiences of a sample of immigrant families with the child protection system, concerns of a sample of child protection workers in the provision of services to these families, and struggles of families in the transitions to their new country. These studies, along with others provide insights into areas of consideration for practice that can contribute to safety for children while ensuring just and equitable responses that have greater potential for keeping families together rather than premature apprehension and removal of children to state care.

Keywords: child protection, child welfare services, immigrant families, racial and ethnic diversity

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Authors: Angel Villabona-Ortíz, Candelaria Tejada-Tovar, Andrea Viera-Devoz

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Wastewater treatment is an issue of vital importance in these times where the impacts of human activities are most evident, which have become essential tasks for the normal functioning of society. However, they put entire ecosystems at risk by time destroying the possibility of sustainable development. Various conventional technologies are used to remove pollutants from water. Agroindustrial waste is the product with the potential to be used as a renewable raw material for the production of energy and chemical products, and their use is beneficial since products with added value are generated from materials that were not used before. Considering the benefits that the use of residual biomass brings, this project proposes the use of agro-industrial residues from corn crops for the production of natural adsorbents whose purpose is aimed at the remediation of contaminated water bodies with large loads of nutrients. The adsorption capacity of two biomaterials obtained from the processing of corn stalks was evaluated by batch system tests. Biochar impregnated with sulfuric acid and thermally activated was synthesized. On the other hand, the cellulose was extracted from the corn stalks and chemically modified with cetyltrimethylammonium chloride in order to quaternize the surface of the adsorbent. The adsorbents obtained were characterized by thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), infrared spectrometry with Fourier Transform (FTIR), analysis by Brunauer, Emmett and Teller method (BET) and X-ray Diffraction analysis ( XRD), which showed favorable characteristics for the cellulose extraction process. Higher adsorption capacities of the nutrients were obtained with the use of biochar, with phosphate being the anion with the best removal percentages. The effect of the initial adsorbate concentration was evaluated, with which it was shown that the Freundlich isotherm better describes the adsorption process in most systems. The adsorbent-phosphate / nitrate systems fit better to the Pseudo Primer Order kinetic model, while the adsorbent-sulfate systems showed a better fit to the Pseudo second-order model, which indicates that there are both physical and chemical interactions in the process. Multicomponent adsorption tests revealed that phosphate anions have a higher affinity for both adsorbents. On the other hand, the thermodynamic parameters standard enthalpy (ΔH °) and standard entropy (ΔS °) with negative results indicate the exothermic nature of the process, whereas the ascending values of standard Gibbs free energy (ΔG °). The adsorption process of anions with biocarbon and modified cellulose is spontaneous and exothermic. The use of the evaluated biomateriles is recommended for the treatment of industrial effluents contaminated with sulfate, nitrate and phosphate anions.

Keywords: adsorption, biochar, modified cellulose, corn stalks

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Authors: Christine P. Gibson, Ramona Alex, Michael Farney, Johana Vallejo-Elias, Mitra Esfandiarei

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Aortic aneurysm is the leading cause of death in Marfan syndrome (MFS), a connective tissue disorder caused by mutations in fibrillin-1 gene (FBN1). MFS aneurysm is characterized by weakening of the aortic wall due to elastin fibers fragmentation and disorganization. The above-average height and distinct physical features make young adults with MFS desirable candidates for competitive sports; but little is known about the exercise limit at which they will be at risk for aortic rupture. On the other hand, aerobic cardiovascular exercise has been shown to have protective effects on the heart and aorta. We have previously reported that mild aerobic exercise can delay the formation of aortic aneurysm in a mouse model of MFS. In this study, we aimed to investigate the effects of various levels of exercise intensity on the progression of aortic aneurysm in the mouse model. Starting at 4 weeks of age, we subjected control and MFS mice to different levels of exercise intensity (8m/min, 10m/min, 15m/min, and 20m/min, corresponding to 55%, 65%, 75%, and 85% of VO2 max, respectively) on a treadmill for 30 minutes per day, five days a week for the duration of the study. At 24 weeks of age, aortic tissue were isolated and subjected to structural and functional studies using histology and wire myography in order to evaluate the effects of different exercise routines on elastin fragmentation and organization and aortic wall elasticity/stiffness. Our data shows that exercise training at the intensity levels between 55%-75% significantly reduces elastin fragmentation and disorganization, with less recovery observed in 85% MFS group. The reversibility of elasticity was also significantly restored in MFS mice subjected to 55%-75% intensity; however, the recovery was less pronounced in MFS mice subjected to 85% intensity. Furthermore, our data shows that smooth muscle cells (SMCs) contractilion in response to vasoconstrictor agent phenylephrine (100nM) is significantly reduced in MFS aorta (54.84 ± 1.63 mN/mm2) as compared to control (95.85 ± 3.04 mN/mm2). At 55% of intensity, exercise did not rescue SMCs contraction (63.45 ± 1.70 mN/mm2), while at higher intensity levels, SMCs contraction in response to phenylephrine was restored to levels similar to control aorta [65% (81.88 ± 4.57 mN/mm2), 75% (86.22 ± 3.84 mN/mm2), and 85% (83.91 ± 5.42 mN/mm2)]. This study provides the first time evidence that high intensity exercise (e.g. 85%) may not provide the most beneficial effects on aortic function (vasoconstriction) and structure (elastin fragmentation, aortic wall elasticity) during the progression of aortic aneurysm in MFS mice. On the other hand, based on our observations, medium intensity exercise (e.g. 65%) seems to provide the utmost protective effects on aortic structure and function in MFS mice. These findings provide new insights into the potential capacity, in which MFS patients could participate in various aerobic exercise routines, especially in young adults affected by cardiovascular complications particularly aortic aneurysm. This work was funded by Midwestern University Research Fund.

Keywords: aerobic exercise, aortic aneurysm, aortic wall elasticity, elastin fragmentation, Marfan syndrome

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Authors: Adeyemi A. Ajisebiolola

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This study examined people’s responses to demand and consumption of herbal medicines in Nigeria. It also assessed people’s evaluation of the effectiveness of the existing medicines on the treatment of ailments and encouraging forest products utilization for greener future in terms of healthcare delivery. Two Local Government Areas, namely Ido and Ibadan Northwest were adopted for the study; Ido is characterized by rural populace and Ibadan Northwest by urban populace. Out of 500 questionnaires randomly administered to the households in the two local government areas of study, 481 (96.2%) were recovered. Statistical analysis employed showed that people were beginning to understand the importance of herbal medicines in Nigeria as majority of the households use herbal medicines to treat various ailments. Among the major problems encountered by the respondents are lack of precise dosage and adequate preservation methods. It was recommended that Forestry Research Institutes in Nigeria should be deeply involved in the findings on medicinal plants, package them into products and make them available to the society for sustainable healthcare management and greener future of the nation.

Keywords: demand and consumption, forest products, herbal medicines, Nigeria

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Authors: Sajjad Farahani, Wilkistar Otieno, Xiaohang Yue

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This paper develops a model for the optimal disposition decision for product returns in a remanufacturing system with limited recoverable inventory capacity. In this model, a constant demand is satisfied by remanufacturing returned products which are up to the minimum required quality grade. The quality grade of returned products is uncertain and remanufacturing cost increases as the quality level decreases, and remanufacturer wishes to determine which returned product to accept to be remanufactured for reselling, and any unaccepted returns may be salvaged at a value that increases with their quality level. Accepted returns can be stocked for remanufacturing upon demand requests, but incur a holding cost. A Markov decision problem is formulated in order to evaluate various performance measures for this system and obtain the optimal remanufacturing policy. A detailed numerical study reveals that our approach to the disposition problem outperforms the current industrial practice ignoring quality grade of returned products. In addition, we identify conditions under which this improvement is the highest.

Keywords: green supply chain management, matrix geometric method, production recovery, reverse supply chains

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Authors: Mohd Ibrahim K. Azeez, Mohammed Sani Ibrahim, Rosemawati Mustapa, Maisarah A. Malik, Chandrakala Varatharajoo, Wee Akina Sia Seng Lee

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The leadership of the principals is known to be a key indicator in development and school performance. Therefore, this study was undertaken to assess the extent of the influence of instructional leadership in the field of supervision and curriculum focus on capacity development competence in the field of communication and teamwork. In addition, this study also examines self-efficacy mediator school leadership in the field of self-improvement and self-management of school principals. The study involved 383 guest teachers from 55 secondary schools for leadership in schools. Data was analyzed using SEM aid program AMOS 21. The final result shows partial mediation model was the best model fit to obtain the best goodness of fit of (X2/df = 4.663, CFI = 0.922, GFI = 0.778, TLI = 0914, NFI = 0.903, and RMSEA = 0.098) compared to the direct effect model of the findings (X2/df = 5.319, CFI = 0.908, GFI = 0755, TLI = 0.899, NFI = 0.889, and RMSEA = 0.106). While the findings of the fully mediator model with a self-efficacy refers principals as a mediator as follows (X2/df = 4.838, CFI = 0918, GFI = 0772, TLI = 0.910, NFI = 0.899, and RMSEA = 0.100). Therefore, it can be concluded that the findings clearly demonstrate self-efficacy variables principals become a mediator in the relationship between instructional leadership capacity and competency development.

Keywords: instructional leadership, capacity development, self-efficacy, competency

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Authors: João Coutinho-Rodrigues, Nuno Sousa, Luís Alçada-Almeida

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Transportation infrastructure systems are fundamental in modern society and economy. However, they need modernizing, maintaining, and reinforcing interventions which require large investments. In many countries, accumulated intervention delays arise from aging and intense use, being magnified by financial constraints of the past. The decision problem of managing the renewal of large backlogs is common to several types of important transportation infrastructures (e.g., railways, roads). This problem requires considering financial aspects as well as operational constraints under a multidimensional framework. The present research introduces a linear programming multiobjective model for managing railway infrastructure asset renewal. The model aims at minimizing three objectives: (i) yearly investment peak, by evenly spreading investment throughout multiple years; (ii) total cost, which includes extra maintenance costs incurred from renewal backlogs; (iii) priority delays related to work start postponements on the higher priority railway sections. Operational constraints ensure that passenger and freight services are not excessively delayed from having railway line sections under intervention. Achieving a balanced annual investment plan, without compromising the total financial effort or excessively postponing the execution of the priority works, was the motivation for pursuing the research which is now presented. The methodology, inspired by a real case study and tested with real data, reflects aspects of the practice of an infrastructure management company and is generalizable to different types of infrastructure (e.g., railways, highways). It was conceived for treating renewal interventions in infrastructure assets, which is a railway network may be rails, ballasts, sleepers, etc.; while a section is under intervention, trains must run at reduced speed, causing delays in services. The model cannot, therefore, allow for an accumulation of works on the same line, which may cause excessively large delays. Similarly, the lines do not all have the same socio-economic importance or service intensity, making it is necessary to prioritize the sections to be renewed. The model takes these issues into account, and its output is an optimized works schedule for the renewal project translatable in Gantt charts The infrastructure management company provided all the data for the first test case study and validated the parameterization. This case consists of several sections to be renewed, over 5 years and belonging to 17 lines. A large instance was also generated, reflecting a problem of a size similar to the USA railway network (considered the largest one in the world), so it is not expected that considerably larger problems appear in real life; an average of 25 years backlog and ten years of project horizon was considered. Despite the very large increase in the number of decision variables (200 times as large), the computational time cost did not increase very significantly. It is thus expectable that just about any real-life problem can be treated in a modern computer, regardless of size. The trade-off analysis shows that if the decision maker allows some increase in max yearly investment (i.e., degradation of objective ii), solutions improve considerably in the remaining two objectives.

Keywords: transport infrastructure, asset renewal, railway maintenance, multiobjective modeling

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Authors: Ayman Aboelkassem, Mohamoud Ali, Rezq Diab

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This project aims to document and preserve boat models which were discovered in the Saqqara by Czech Institute of Egyptology archeological mission at Saqqara (GEM numbers, 46007, 46008, 46009). These boat models dates back to Egyptian Old Kingdom and have been transferred to the Conservation Center of the Grand Egyptian Museum, to be displayed at the new museum.The project objectives making such boat models more visible to visitors through the use of 3D reconstructed models and high resolution photos which describe the history of using the boats during the Ancient Egyptian history. Especially, The Grand Egyptian Museum is going to exhibit the second boat of King Khufu from Old kingdom. The project goals are to document the boat models and arrange an exhibition, where such Models going to be displayed next to the Khufu Second Boat. The project shows the importance of using boats in Ancient Egypt, and connecting their usage through Ancient Egyptian periods till now. The boat models had a unique Symbolized in ancient Egypt and connect the public with their kings. The Egyptian kings allowed high ranked employees to put boat models in their tombs which has a great meaning that they hope to fellow their kings in the journey of the afterlife.

Keywords: archaeology, boat models, 3D digital tools for heritage management, museums

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Authors: Tosin Emmanuel Akinduyo, F. O. Ojewola

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This study investigated the influence of age and religion on the sexual behaviours of undergraduates in southwest Nigeria. The aim of this study is to examine the sexual behaviour of undergraduates based on moderating variables of age and religion. The research design was a descriptive research design of the survey type. The sample for the study was 1,200 undergraduates selected through a multi-stage sampling procedure. A self-constructed questionnaire titled “Sexual Behaviours Questionnaire” (SBCUQ) with Pearson reliability (r) of 0.68 was used to elicit information from the respondents. Two research questions were answered using frequency count, percentage, means, and standard deviation. The two hypotheses were tested using t-test and ANOVA. Where the result of ANOVA showed a significant difference, the Scheffe Posthoc test was used to show where the significant difference (s) occurred. The findings of the study revealed that age and religion influenced undergraduates’ sexual behaviour. Based on the findings, the government at all tiers, in collaboration with the university management, should introduce sex education as a course to enlighten undergraduates and inform them of moderation needed as expected in their sexual expressions. Professional counsellors and religious organizations should always line up seminars and workshops for undergraduates on acceptable engagement in their sexual behaviours.

Keywords: age, religion, sexual behaviuors, undergraduates

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Authors: Sami Baraketi, Jean Marie Garcia, Olivier Brun

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Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM) is the dominant transport technology used in numerous high capacity backbone networks, based on optical infrastructures. Given the importance of costs (CapEx and OpEx) associated to these networks, resource management is becoming increasingly important, especially how the optical circuits, called “lightpaths”, are routed throughout the network. This requires the use of efficient algorithms which provide routing strategies with the lowest cost. We focus on the lightpath routing and wavelength assignment problem, known as the RWA problem, while optimizing wavelength fragmentation over the network. Wavelength fragmentation poses a serious challenge for network operators since it leads to the misuse of the wavelength spectrum, and then to the refusal of new lightpath requests. In this paper, we first establish a new Integer Linear Program (ILP) for the problem based on a node-link formulation. This formulation is based on a multilayer approach where the original network is decomposed into several network layers, each corresponding to a wavelength. Furthermore, we propose an efficient heuristic for the problem based on a greedy algorithm followed by a post-treatment procedure. The obtained results show that the optimal solution is often reached. We also compare our results with those of other RWA heuristic methods.

Keywords: WDM, lightpath, RWA, wavelength fragmentation, optimization, linear programming, heuristic

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Authors: Mahvish Maqbool, Muhmmad Sohail Sajid

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Ticks (Acari: Ixodidae); bloodsucking parasites of domestic animals, have significant importance in the transmission of diseases and causing huge economic losses. This study aimed to screen endophilic ticks for the Piroplasms using polymerase chain reaction in three districts Sialkot, Gujranwala and Gujarat of Punjab, Pakistan. Ticks were dissected under a stereomicroscope, and internal organs (midguts& salivary glands) were procured to generate pools of optimum weights. DNA extraction was done through standard protocol followed by primer specific PCR for Piroplasma spp. A total of 22.95% tick pools were found positive for piroplasma spp. In districts, Sialkot and Gujranwala Piroplasma prevalence are higher in riverine animals while in Gujarat Prevalence is higher in non-riverine animals. Female animals were found more prone to piroplasma as compared to males. This study will provide useful data on the distribution of Piroplasma in the vector population of the study area and devise future recommendations for better management of ruminants to avoid subclinical and clinical infections and vector transmitted diseases.

Keywords: babesia, hyalomma, piroplasmposis, tick infectivity

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Authors: Ousmane Sarr

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The Senegalese coasts have high productivity of fishery resources due to the frequency of intense up-welling system that occurs along its coast, caused by the maritime trade winds making its waters nutrients rich. Fishing plays a primordial role in Senegal's socioeconomic plans and food security. However, a global diagnosis of the Senegalese maritime fishing sector has highlighted the challenges this sector encounters. Among these concerns, some significant stocks, a priority target for artisanal fishing, need further assessment. If no efforts are made in this direction, most stock will be overexploited or even in decline. It is in this context that this research was initiated. This investigation aimed to apply a multi-modal approach (LBB, Catch-only-based CMSY model and its most recent version (CMSY++); JABBA, and JABBA-Select) to assess the stock of Atlantic bonito, Sarda sarda (Bloch, 1793) in the Senegalese Exclusive Economic Zone (SEEZ). Available catch, effort, and size data from Atlantic bonito over 15 years (2004-2018) were used to calculate the nominal and standardized CPUE, size-frequency distribution, and length at retentions (50 % and 95 % selectivity) of the species. These relevant results were employed as input parameters for stock assessment models mentioned above to define the stock status of this species in this region of the Atlantic Ocean. The LBB model indicated an Atlantic bonito healthy stock status with B/BMSY values ranging from 1.3 to 1.6 and B/B0 values varying from 0.47 to 0.61 of the main scenarios performed (BON_AFG_CL, BON_GN_Length, and BON_PS_Length). The results estimated by LBB are consistent with those obtained by CMSY. The CMSY model results demonstrate that the SEEZ Atlantic bonito stock is in a sound condition in the final year of the main scenarios analyzed (BON, BON-bt, BON-GN-bt, and BON-PS-bt) with sustainable relative stock biomass (B2018/BMSY = 1.13 to 1.3) and fishing pressure levels (F2018/FMSY= 0.52 to 1.43). The B/BMSY and F/FMSY results for the JABBA model ranged between 2.01 to 2.14 and 0.47 to 0.33, respectively. In contrast, The estimated B/BMSY and F/FMSY for JABBA-Select ranged from 1.91 to 1.92 and 0.52 to 0.54. The Kobe plots results of the base case scenarios ranged from 75% to 89% probability in the green area, indicating sustainable fishing pressure and an Atlantic bonito healthy stock size capable of producing high yields close to the MSY. Based on the stock assessment results, this study highlighted scientific advice for temporary management measures. This study suggests an improvement of the selectivity parameters of longlines and purse seines and a temporary prohibition of the use of sleeping nets in the fishery for the Atlantic bonito stock in the SEEZ based on the results of the length-base models. Although these actions are temporary, they can be essential to reduce or avoid intense pressure on the Atlantic bonito stock in the SEEZ. However, it is necessary to establish harvest control rules to provide coherent and solid scientific information that leads to appropriate decision-making for rational and sustainable exploitation of Atlantic bonito in the SEEZ and the Eastern Atlantic Ocean.

Keywords: multi-model approach, stock assessment, atlantic bonito, healthy stock, sustainable, SEEZ, temporary management measures

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Authors: Oluwafunmibi Omotayo Fasanya, Augustine Kena Adjei

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Background and Aims: This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the effect of vitamin D supplementation on key metabolic and cardiovascular parameters, such as glycated hemoglobin (HbA1C), fasting blood sugar (FBS), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and total vitamin D levels in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods: A systematic search was performed across databases, including PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and ClinicalTrials.gov, from January 1990 to January 2024. A total of 4,177 relevant studies were initially identified. Using an unsupervised K-means clustering algorithm, publications were grouped based on common text features. Maximum entropy classification was then applied to filter studies that matched a pre-identified training set of 139 potentially relevant articles. These selected studies were manually screened for relevance. A parallel manual selection of all initially searched studies was conducted for validation. The final inclusion of studies was based on full-text evaluation, quality assessment, and meta-regression models using random effects. Sensitivity analysis and publication bias assessments were also performed to ensure robustness. Results: The unsupervised K-means clustering algorithm grouped the patients based on their responses to vitamin D supplementation, using key biomarkers such as HbA1C, FBS, LDL, HDL, SBP, and total vitamin D levels. Two primary clusters emerged: one representing patients who experienced significant improvements in these markers and another showing minimal or no change. Patients in the cluster associated with significant improvement exhibited lower HbA1C, FBS, and LDL levels after vitamin D supplementation, while HDL and total vitamin D levels increased. The analysis showed that vitamin D supplementation was particularly effective in reducing HbA1C, FBS, and LDL within this cluster. Furthermore, BMI, weight gain, and disease duration were identified as factors that influenced cluster assignment, with patients having lower BMI and shorter disease duration being more likely to belong to the improvement cluster. Conclusion: The findings of this machine learning-assisted meta-analysis confirm that vitamin D supplementation can significantly improve glycemic control and reduce the risk of cardiovascular complications in T2DM patients. The use of automated screening techniques streamlined the process, ensuring the comprehensive evaluation of a large body of evidence while maintaining the validity of traditional manual review processes.

Keywords: HbA1C, T2DM, SBP, FBS

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