Search results for: autoregressive integrate moving average model selection

Authors: Ahmed Mozamel, Kemal Yildizli

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Due to mechanical energy losses and a competitive of minimizing these losses and increases the machine efficiency, the need for contactless gearing system has raised. In this work, one stage of mechanical planetary gear transmission system integrated with one stage of magnetic planetary gear system is designed as a two-stage hybrid gearbox system. The permanent magnets internal energy in the form of the magnetic field is used to create meshing between contactless magnetic rotors in order to provide self-system protection against overloading and decrease the mechanical loss of the transmission system by eliminating the friction losses. Classical methods, such as analytical, tabular method and the theory of elasticity are used to calculate the planetary gear design parameters. The finite element method (ANSYS Maxwell) is used to predict the behaviors of a magnetic gearing system. The concentric magnetic gearing system has been modeled and analyzed by using 2D finite element method (ANSYS Maxwell). In addition to that, design and manufacturing processes of prototype components (a planetary gear, concentric magnetic gear, shafts and the bearings selection) of a gearbox system are investigated. The output force, the output moment, the output power and efficiency of the hybrid gearbox system are experimentally evaluated. The viability of applying a magnetic force to transmit mechanical power through a non-contact gearing system is presented. The experimental test results show that the system is capable to operate continuously within the range of speed from 400 rpm to 3000 rpm with the reduction ratio of 2:1 and maximum efficiency of 91%.

Keywords: hybrid gearbox, mechanical gearboxes, magnetic gears, magnetic torque

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: M. A. Hasan, M. R. Islam, R. A. Tarefder

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This study investigates how the site specific traffic data differs from the Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Software default values. Two Weigh-in-Motion (WIM) stations were installed in Interstate-40 (I-40) and Interstate-25 (I-25) to developed site specific data. A computer program named WIM Data Analysis Software (WIMDAS) was developed using Microsoft C-Sharp (.Net) for quality checking and processing of raw WIM data. A complete year data from November 2013 to October 2014 was analyzed using the developed WIM Data Analysis Program. After that, the vehicle class distribution, directional distribution, lane distribution, monthly adjustment factor, hourly distribution, axle load spectra, average number of axle per vehicle, axle spacing, lateral wander distribution, and wheelbase distribution were calculated. Then a comparative study was done between measured data and AASHTOWare default values. It was found that the measured general traffic inputs for I-40 and I-25 significantly differ from the default values.

Keywords: AASHTOWare, traffic, weigh-in-motion, axle load distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 327

Authors: Shreesh Sinha, Alexander B. Barker, Megan Parkin, Emma Wilson, Rachael L. Murray

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Background and Objectives: Exposure to HFSS imagery is associated with the consumption of foods high in fat, sugar or salt (HFSS), and subsequently obesity, among young people. We report and compare the results of two content analyses, one of two popular terrestrial children's television channels in the UK and the other of a selection of children's programmes available on video-on-demand (VOD) streaming sites. Methods: Content analysis of three days' worth of programmes (including advertisements) on two popular children's television channels broadcast on UK television (CBeebies and Milkshake) as well as a sample of 40 highest-rated children's programmes available on the VOD platforms, Netflix and Amazon Prime, using 1-minute interval coding. Results: HFSS content was seen in 181 broadcasts (36%) and in 417 intervals (13%) on terrestrial television, 'Milkshake' had a significantly higher proportion of programmes/adverts which contained HFSS content than 'CBeebies'. In VOD platforms, HFSS content was seen in 82 episodes (72% of the total number of episodes), across 459 intervals (19% of the total number of intervals), with no significant difference in the proportion of programmes containing HFSS content between Netflix and Amazon Prime. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that HFSS content is common in both popular UK children's television channels and children's programmes on VOD services. Since previous research has shown that HFSS content in the media has an effect on HFSS consumption, children's television programmes broadcast either on TV or VOD services are likely to have an effect on HFSS consumption in children, and legislative opportunities to prevent this exposure are being missed.

Keywords: public health, junk food, children's TV, HFSS

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Songul Cinaroglu

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Machine learning regression methods are recommended as an alternative to classical regression methods in the existence of variables which are difficult to model. Data for health expenditure is typically non-normal and have a heavily skewed distribution. This study aims to compare machine learning regression methods by hyperparameter tuning to predict health expenditure per capita. A multiple regression model was conducted and performance results of Lasso Regression, Random Forest Regression and Support Vector Machine Regression recorded when different hyperparameters are assigned. Lambda (λ) value for Lasso Regression, number of trees for Random Forest Regression, epsilon (ε) value for Support Vector Regression was determined as hyperparameters. Study results performed by using 'k' fold cross validation changed from 5 to 50, indicate the difference between machine learning regression results in terms of R², RMSE and MAE values that are statistically significant (p < 0.001). Study results reveal that Random Forest Regression (R² ˃ 0.7500, RMSE ≤ 0.6000 ve MAE ≤ 0.4000) outperforms other machine learning regression methods. It is highly advisable to use machine learning regression methods for modelling health expenditures.

Keywords: machine learning, lasso regression, random forest regression, support vector regression, hyperparameter tuning, health expenditure

Procedia PDF Downloads 209

Authors: Cemre Polat, Dogan B. Saydam, Mustafa Soyler, Coskun Ozalp

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In this study, the flow structure was investigated by particle imaging velocimetry (PIV) method at Re = 26000 for two different rectangular cylinders placed perpendicular and parallel to the flow direction. After obtaining streamwise and spanwise velocity data, average vorticity, streamlines, velocity magnitude, turbulence kinetic energy, root mean square of streamwise and spanwise velocity fluctuations are calculated, and critical points of flow structure are explained. As a result of the study, it was seen that the vertical configuration has less effect on the flow structure in the back region of the body compared to the horizontal configuration. When the streamwise velocity component is examined in both configurations, it is seen that the negative velocity component is stronger on the long sides compared to the short sides. It has been observed that the vertically positioned cylinder expands the flow separation point compared to the horizontally positioned cylinder; also the vertical cylinder creates an increase in turbulence kinetic energy compared to the horizontal cylinder.

Keywords: bluff body, flow characteristics, PIV, rectangular cylinder

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: R. Pravin Kumar, L. Roopa

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Enzymes are molecular machines used in various industries such as pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, food and animal feed, paper and leather processing, biofuel, and etc. Nevertheless, this has been possible only by the breath-taking efforts of the chemists and biologists to evolve/engineer these mysterious biomolecules to work the needful. Main agenda of this enzyme engineering project is to derive screening and selection tools to obtain focused libraries of enzyme variants with desired qualities. The methodologies for this research include the well-established directed evolution, rational redesign and relatively less established yet much faster and accurate insilico methods. This concept was initiated as a Receptor Rependent-4Dimensional Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (RD-4D-QSAR) to predict kinetic properties of enzymes and extended here to study transaminase by a 7D QSAR approach. Induced-fit scenarios were explored using Quantum Mechanics/Molecular Mechanics (QM/MM) simulations which were then placed in a grid that stores interactions energies derived from QM parameters (QMgrid). In this study, the mutated enzymes were immersed completely inside the QMgrid and this was combined with solvation models to predict descriptors. After statistical screening of descriptors, QSAR models showed > 90% specificity and > 85% sensitivity towards the experimental activity. Mapping descriptors on the enzyme structure revealed hotspots important to enhance the enantioselectivity of the enzyme.

Keywords: QMgrid, QM/MM simulations, RD-4D-QSAR, transaminase

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Monica Puri Sikka, Subrato Ghosh Arunangshu Mukhopadhyay

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Appropriate compression bandaging is important for compression therapeutic medical diseases. The high compression approach employed for treating venous leg ulcers should be used correctly so that sufficient (but not excessive) pressure is applied. Bandages used to treat venous disease by compression should achieve and sustain effective levels and gradients of pressure and minimise the risk of pressure trauma. To maintain graduated compression on the limb the bandage needs to be applied at same tension for each layer from ankle to the knee. In this paper the geometry for various bandaging procedures is used to wrap each layer of bandage by marking the relaxed length of the bandage. The relaxed length is calculated depending on the stretch, average circumference of the limb on which it is to be applied and the bandaging technique to be used. This paper aims at developing a scientific approach while applying the bandage to reduce the inter operator variability in applying same tension on each successive layer of bandage.

Keywords: bandaging, compression, inter operator variability, graduated, relaxed length, stretch

Procedia PDF Downloads 485

Authors: Peña A. Roland R., Lozano P. Jean P.

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The waterflooding process is an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) method that appears tremendously successful. This paper shows the importance of the role of the numerical modelling of waterflooding and how to provide a better description of the fluid flow during this process. The mathematical model is based on the mass conservation equations for the oil and water phases. Rock compressibility and capillary pressure equations are coupled to the mathematical model. For discretizing and linearizing the partial differential equations, we used the Finite Volume technique and the Newton-Raphson method, respectively. The results of three scenarios for waterflooding in porous media are shown. The first scenario was estimating the water saturation in the media without rock compressibility and without capillary pressure. The second scenario was estimating the front of the water considering the rock compressibility and capillary pressure. The third case is to compare different fronts of water saturation for three fluids viscosity ratios without and with rock compressibility and without and with capillary pressure. Results of the simulation indicate that the rock compressibility and the capillary pressure produce changes in the pressure profile and saturation profile during the displacement of the oil for the water.

Keywords: capillary pressure, numerical simulation, rock compressibility, two-phase flow

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Adepeju A. Opaleye, Adekunle Kolawole, Muyiwa A. Opaleye

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Consumers’ perceived quality of imported product has been an impediment to business in the Nigeria garment industry. To improve patronage of made- in-Nigeria designs, the first step is to understand what the consumer expects, then proffer ways to meet this expectation through product redesign or improvement of the garment production process. The purpose of this study is to investigate drivers of consumers’ value for typical Nigerian garment design (NGD). An integrated quality function deployment (QFD) and functional, expressive and aesthetic (FEA) Consumer Needs methodology helps to minimize incorrect understanding of potential consumer’s requirements in mass customized garments. Six themes emerged as drivers of consumer’s satisfaction: (1) Style variety (2) Dimensions (3) Finishing (4) Fabric quality (5) Garment Durability and (6) Aesthetics. Existing designs found to lead foreign designs in terms of its acceptance for informal events, style variety and fit. The latter may be linked to its mode of acquisition. A conceptual model of NGD acceptance in the context of consumer’s inherent characteristics, social and the business environment is proposed.

Keywords: Perceived quality, Garment design, Quality function deployment, FEA Model , Mass customisation

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: Chalermwut Wijit

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This research is conducted in order to 1) study the result of applying “Active Learning” in general education subject to develop creativity 2) explore problems and obstacles in applying Active Learning in general education subject to improve the creativity in 1780 undergraduate students who registered this subject in the first semester 2013. The research is implemented by allocating the students into several groups of 10 -15 students and assigning them to design the activities for society under the four main conditions including 1) require no financial resources 2) practical 3) can be attended by every student 4) must be accomplished within 2 weeks. The researcher evaluated the creativity prior and after the study. Ultimately, the problems and obstacles from creating activity are evaluated from the open-ended questions in the questionnaires. The study result states that overall average scores on students’ ability increased significantly in terms of creativity, analytical ability and the synthesis, the complexity of working plan and team working. It can be inferred from the outcome that active learning is one of the most efficient methods in developing creativity in general education.

Keywords: creative thinking, active learning, general education, social sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Ramona Zharfpeykan

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The concept of sustainability is generally considered as a key topic in many countries, and sustainability reporting is becoming an important tool for companies to communicate their sustainability plans and performance to their stakeholders. There have been various studies on factors that may influence sustainability reporting in companies. This study examines the possible effect of some of the organisational factors on corporate sustainability reporting. The organisational factors included in this study are a company’s type (public or private), industry, and size as well as managers’ perception of the level of importance of indicators in reporting these indicators. A survey was conducted from 240 Australian and New Zealand companies in various industries. They were asked about their perception of the importance of sustainability indicators in their performance and if they report these indicators. The GRI indicators used to develop the survey. A multiple regression model was developed using reporting strategy score as dependent and type, size, industry categorisation, and managers’ perception of the level of importance of the GRI indicators as independent factors. The results show that among all the factors included in the model, size of a company and the perception of managers of the level of importance of environmental and labour practice indicators can affect the sustainability scores of these companies.

Keywords: sustainability reporting, global reporting initiative, sustainability reporting strategy, organisational features

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Yuyun, Fritz Akhmad Nuzir, Bart Julien Dewancker

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Check-in locations on social media provide information about an individual’s location. The millions of units of data generated from these sites provide knowledge for human activity. In this research, we used a geolocation service and users’ texts posted on Twitter social media to analyze human mobility. Our research will answer the questions; what are the movement patterns of a citizen? And, how far do people travel in the city? We explore the people trajectory of 201,118 check-ins and 22,318 users over a period of one month in Makassar city, Indonesia. To accommodate individual mobility, the authors only analyze the users with check-in activity greater than 30 times. We used sampling method with a systematic sampling approach to assign the research sample. The study found that the individual movement shows a high degree of regularity and intensity in certain places. The other finding found that the average distance an urban inhabitant can travel per day is as far as 9.6 km.

Keywords: mobility, check-in, distance, Twitter

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Xuling Zhang, Yong Wang, Xingyun Liu, Shuangxue Xu

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Based on positive psychology, this study presented a mediated moderation model in which character strengths moderated the relationship between interpersonal relationship, job satisfaction and subjective well-being, with job satisfaction taking the mediation role among them. A total of 912 teachers participated in four surveys, which include the Oxford Happiness Questionnaire, Values in Action Inventory of Strengths, job satisfaction questionnaire, and the interpersonal relationship questionnaire. The results indicated that: (1) Taking interpersonal relationship as a typical work environmental variable, the result shows that it is significantly correlated to subjective well-being. (2) The character strengths of "kindness", “authenticity” moderated the effect of the teachers’ interpersonal relationship on subjective well-being. (3) The teachers’ job satisfaction mediated the above mentioned moderation effects. In general, this study shows that the teachers’ interpersonal relationship affects their subjective well-being, with their job satisfaction as mediation and character strengths of “kindness” and “authenticity” as moderation. The managerial implications were also discussed.

Keywords: character strength, subjective well-being, job satisfaction, interpersonal relationship

Procedia PDF Downloads 291

Authors: Ch. Sridevi, S. P. Shailender Kumar, B. Gurudayal, A. Chalapathi Rao, K. Koteswara Rao, P. Srinivasulu

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System reliability and system availability evaluation plays a crucial role in ensuring the seamless operation of complex satellite data reception system with consistent performance for longer periods. This paper presents a novel approach for the same using a case study on one of the antenna systems at satellite data reception ground station in India. The methodology involves analyzing system's components, their failure rates, system's architecture, generation of logical reliability block diagram model and estimating the reliability of the system using the component level mean time between failures considering exponential distribution to derive a baseline estimate of the system's reliability. The model is then validated with collected system level field failure data from the operational satellite data reception systems that includes failure occurred, failure time, criticality of the failure and repair times by using statistical techniques like median rank, regression and Weibull analysis to extract meaningful insights regarding failure patterns and practical reliability of the system and to assess the accuracy of the developed reliability model. The study mainly focused on identification of critical units within the system, which are prone to failures and have a significant impact on overall performance and brought out a reliability model of the identified critical unit. This model takes into account the interdependencies among system components and their impact on overall system reliability and provides valuable insights into the performance of the system to understand the Improvement or degradation of the system over a period of time and will be the vital input to arrive at the optimized design for future development. It also provides a plug and play framework to understand the effect on performance of the system in case of any up gradations or new designs of the unit. It helps in effective planning and formulating contingency plans to address potential system failures, ensuring the continuity of operations. Furthermore, to instill confidence in system users, the duration for which the system can operate continuously with the desired level of 3 sigma reliability was estimated that turned out to be a vital input to maintenance plan. System availability and station availability was also assessed by considering scenarios of clash and non-clash to determine the overall system performance and potential bottlenecks. Overall, this paper establishes a comprehensive methodology for reliability and availability analysis of complex satellite data reception systems. The results derived from this approach facilitate effective planning contingency measures, and provide users with confidence in system performance and enables decision-makers to make informed choices about system maintenance, upgrades and replacements. It also aids in identifying critical units and assessing system availability in various scenarios and helps in minimizing downtime and optimizing resource allocation.

Keywords: exponential distribution, reliability modeling, reliability block diagram, satellite data reception system, system availability, weibull analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Mustopa, Setyawan Wahyu Pradana

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This study aims to determine the application of animal welfare in Madura cow racing competition at Sumenep district, Madura Island. This study conducted by survey and discussion methods with 3 Madura cow owners in the competition. The animal welfare is going to be proved by observing the condition of the cage, the cleanliness of it, feeding and water, the health of the cow, also owner treatments for their Madura cow that will be served as a racer. Observations made using stable conditions ACRES form with assessment scores ranged from 1 = very poor, 2 = poor, 3 = regular, 4 = good and 5 = very good, animal welfare conditions seen by conducting observations and interviews with Madura cow owners. The result shows that the Madura cow competition has fulfilled the criteria of animal welfare application. Application of animal welfare principle by the owner of Madura cow terms of ACRES (Animal Concerns Research and Education Society) below standard, the average score obtained was 2.06, which is mean in a poor ratings. Besides considering the animal welfare application, Madura cow owners also do special treatments for their Madura cow with purpose to produce racers that are healthy and fast. Therefore, if the cow wins in Madura cow racing competition, it will purchase a high-value price.

Keywords: animal welfare, competition, Madura cow, racing

Procedia PDF Downloads 255

Authors: Maryam Heidari, James H. Jones Jr.

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Millions of online posts about different topics and products are shared on popular social media platforms. One use of this content is to provide crowd-sourced information about a specific topic, event or product. However, this use raises an important question: what percentage of information available through these services is trustworthy? In particular, might some of this information be generated by a machine, i.e., a bot, instead of a human? Bots can be, and often are, purposely designed to generate enough volume to skew an apparent trend or position on a topic, yet the consumer of such content cannot easily distinguish a bot post from a human post. In this paper, we introduce a model for social media bot detection which uses Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (Google Bert) for sentiment classification of tweets to identify topic-independent features. Our use of a Natural Language Processing approach to derive topic-independent features for our new bot detection model distinguishes this work from previous bot detection models. We achieve 94\% accuracy classifying the contents of data as generated by a bot or a human, where the most accurate prior work achieved accuracy of 92\%.

Keywords: bot detection, natural language processing, neural network, social media

Procedia PDF Downloads 104

Authors: Mauricio Gracia, Luis Leal, Bharat Verma

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Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has become nowadays an important tool in the process of hydrodynamic design of modern ships. CFD is used to model any phenomena related to fluid flow in a control volume like a ship or any offshore structure in the sea. In the present study, the current force drag coefficients for a Colombian Navy Frigate in deep and shallow water are estimated through the application of CFD. The study shows the process of simulating the ship current drag coefficients using the CFD simulations method, which is conducted using STAR-CCM+ software package. The Almirante Padilla class Frigate ship scale model is investigated. The results show the ship current drag coefficient calculated considering a current speed of 1 knot with a 90° drift angle for the full-scale ship. Predicted results were compared against the current drag coefficients published in the Lloyds register OCIMF report. It is shown that the simulation results agree fairly well with the published results and that STAR-CCM+ code can predict current drag coefficients.

Keywords: CFD, current draft coefficient, STAR-CCM+, OCIMF, Bollard pull

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Elham Ahmadi, Roshaali Khaturia, Pardis Sahraei, Mohammad Niyayesh, Omid Fatahi Valilai

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Nowadays, Information Technology (IT) is changing the way traditional enterprise management concepts work. One of the most dominant IT achievements is the Blockchain Technology. This technology enables the distributed collaboration of stakeholders for their interactions while fulfilling the security and consensus rules among them. This paper has focused on the application of Blockchain technology to enhance one of traditional inventory management models. The Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) has been considered one of the most efficient mechanisms for vendor inventory planning by the suppliers. While VMI has brought competitive advantages for many industries, however its centralized mechanism limits the collaboration of a pool of suppliers and vendors simultaneously. This paper has studied the recent research for VMI application in industries and also has investigated the applications of Blockchain technology for decentralized collaboration of stakeholders. Focusing on sustainability issue for total supply chain consisting suppliers and vendors, it has proposed a Blockchain based VMI conceptual model. The different capabilities of this model for enabling the collaboration of stakeholders while maintaining the competitive advantages and sustainability issues have been discussed.

Keywords: vendor managed inventory, VMI, blockchain technology, supply chain planning, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 204

Authors: Usman Jilani, Ibad Khurram, Irshad Hussain

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Environmentally sustainable waste management is a challenging task as it involves multiple and diverse economic, environmental, technical and regulatory issues. Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) is more challenging in developing countries like Pakistan due to lack of awareness, technology and human resources, insufficient funding, inefficient collection and transport mechanism resulting in the lack of a comprehensive waste management system. This work presents an overview of current MSWM practices in Peshawar, the provincial capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan and proposes a better and sustainable integrated solid waste management system with incineration (Waste to Energy) option. The diverted waste would otherwise generate revenue; minimize land fill requirement and negative impact on the environment. The proposed optimized solution utilizing scientific techniques (like mathematical modeling, optimization algorithms and GIS) as decision support tools enhances the technical & institutional efficiency leading towards a more sustainable waste management system through incorporating: - Improved collection mechanisms through optimized transportation / routing and, - Resource recovery through incineration and selection of most feasible sites for transfer stations, landfills and incineration plant. These proposed methods shift the linear waste management system towards a cyclic system and can also be used as a decision support tool by the WSSP (Water and Sanitation Services Peshawar), agency responsible for the MSWM in Peshawar.

Keywords: municipal solid waste management, incineration, mathematical modeling, optimization, GIS, Peshawar

Procedia PDF Downloads 360

Authors: Christopher Holroyd

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With the various terrorist organizations and drug cartels that are currently active, there is a myriad of security concerns facing countries around the world. Organizations that focus their attacks on others through terror, such as what is seen with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), have no boundaries when it comes to doing what is needed to fulfill their desired intent. For countries such as Iraq, who have been trying to rebuild their country since the fall of the Saddam Hussein Regime, organizations such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS have been impeding the country’s efforts toward peace and stability. One method utilized by terrorist organizations around the world is human trafficking. This method is one that is seen around the world; modern slavery is still exploited by those who have no concern for human decency and morality, their only concern is to achieve their goals by any means. It is understandable that some people may not have even heard of 'modern slavery', or they just might not believe that it is even an issue in today’s world. Organizations such as ISIS are not the only ones in the world that seek to benefit from the immoral trading of humans. Various drug cartels in the world, such as those seen in Mexico and Central America, have recently begun to take part in the trade – moving humans from state to state, or country to country, to better fuel their overall operations. This now makes the possibility of human trafficking more real for those in the United States because of the proximity of the cartels to the southern border of the country. An issue that, at one time, might have only seen as a distant threat, is now close to home for those in the United States. Looking at these two examples is how we begin to understand why human trafficking is utilized by various organizations around the world. This trade of human beings and the violation of basic human rights is a plague that effects the entire world and not just those that are in a country other than your own. One of the security issues that stem from the trade includes the movement and recruitment of members of the organizations. With individuals being smuggled from one location to another in secrecy, this only puts those trying to combat this trade at a disadvantage. This creates concern over the accurate number of potential recruits, combatants, and other individuals who are working against the host nation, and for the mission of the cartel or terrorist organization they are a part of. An uphill battle is created, and the goals of peace and stability are now harder to reach. Aside from security aspects, it cannot be forgotten that those being traded and forced into slavery, are being done so against their will. Families are separated, children trained to be fighters or worse. This makes the goal of eradicating human trafficking even more dire and important.

Keywords: human trafficking, reconstruction, security, terrorism

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Yasaswi Vengalasetti, Jacob Eisenach, Jay Bhattacharya

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Seroprevalence studies can provide an estimation of the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), the probability of death given infection. Measuring the seroprevalence and reported deaths of an area within a given time frame an IFR can be estimated. With this IFR calculation, we can then observe COVID-19 death figures in different countries around the world and estimate the number of cases since the onset of the pandemic. There is a large range for estimated COVID-19 infections across different countries. This ranged from 0.659 million infections in Hong Kong to 277 million infections in India. The largest estimated share of the population infected is 63% in Peru and the lowest is 3% in Norway. For younger populations, COVID-19 is most fatal in South America; for older populations, it is most fatal in North America. The Asian regions stand out with significantly lower IFRs in older populations: at 80 years old, COVID-19 is about three times as fatal than in South Asia and about twelve times as fatal than in East Asia. The weighted average for the share of the population infected, the sum of infections divided by the sum of populations across all countries, is 23%.

Keywords: epidemiology, seroprevalence, covid-19, infection fatality rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: L. Rashidian, M. Rajabali

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Climate changes have unpredictable and costly effects on water resources of various basins. The impact of atmospheric phenomena on human life and the environment is so significant that only knowledge of management can reduce its consequences. In this study, using LARS.WG model and down scaling of general circulation climate model HADCM-3 and according to the IPCC scenarios, including series A1b, A2 and B1, we simulated data from 2010 to 2040 in order to using them for long term forecasting of climate parameters of the Caspian Sea and its impact on sea level. Our research involves collecting data on monthly precipitation amounts, minimum and maximum temperature and daily sunshine hours, from meteorological organization for Caspian Sea coastal station such as Gorgan, Ramsar, Rasht, Anzali, Astara and Ghaemshahr since their establishment until 2010. Considering the fact that the fluctuation range of water level in the Caspian Sea has various ups and downs in different times, there is an increase in minimum and maximum temperature for all the mentioned scenarios, which will last until 2040. Overall, the amount of rainfall in cities bordering the Caspian Sea was studied based on the three scenarios, which shows an increase in the amount. However, there will be a decrease in water level of the Caspian Sea till 2040.

Keywords: IPCC, climate change, atmospheric circulation, Caspian Sea, HADCM3, sea level

Procedia PDF Downloads 225

Authors: Zahra Ramezanpanah, Joachim Carvallo, Aurelien Rodriguez

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This paper aims to detect anomalies in streaming data using machine learning algorithms. In this regard, we designed two separate pipelines and evaluated the effectiveness of each separately. The first pipeline, based on supervised machine learning methods, consists of two phases. In the first phase, we trained several supervised models using the UNSW-NB15 data-set. We measured the efficiency of each using different performance metrics and selected the best model for the second phase. At the beginning of the second phase, we first, using Argus Server, sniffed a local area network. Several types of attacks were simulated and then sent the sniffed data to a running algorithm at short intervals. This algorithm can display the results of each packet of received data in real-time using the trained model. The second pipeline presented in this paper is based on unsupervised algorithms, in which a Temporal Graph Network (TGN) is used to monitor a local network. The TGN is trained to predict the probability of future states of the network based on its past behavior. Our contribution in this section is introducing an indicator to identify anomalies from these predicted probabilities.

Keywords: temporal graph network, anomaly detection, cyber security, IDS

Procedia PDF Downloads 87

Authors: Robert McGrath, Zara Qureshi

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A innovative leadership philosophy that is proposed herein is distinctly more humane than most leadership approaches Concerned Leadership. The central idea to this approach is to consider the whole person that comes to work; their professional skills and talents, as well as any personal, emotional challenges that could be affecting productivity and effectiveness at work. This paper explores Concerned Leadership as an integration of the two conceptual models areas examined in this paper –(1) leaderful organizations and practices, as well as (2) organizational culture, and defines leadership in the context of Mental Health and Wellness in the workplace. Leaderful organizations calls for organizations to implement leaderful practice. Leaderful practice is when leadership responsibility and decision-making is shared across all team members and levels, versus only delegated to top management as commonly seen. A healthy culture thrives off key aspects such as acceptance, employee pride, equal opportunity, and strong company leadership. Concerned Leadership is characterized by five main components: Self-Concern, Leaderful Practice, Human Touch, Belonging, and Compassion. As scholars and practitioners conceptualize leadership in practice, the present model seeks to uphold the dignity of each organizational member, thereby having the potential to transform workplaces and support all members.

Keywords: leadership, mental health, reflective practice, organizational culture

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Yuguang Gao, Mingtao Deng

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The integration of independently operating hospitals into a unified healthcare service system has become a strategic imperative in the pursuit of hospitals’ high-quality development. Central to the concept of group governance over such transformation, exemplified by a collaborative medical alliance, is the delineation of shared value, vision, and goals. Given the inherent disparity in capabilities among hospitals within the alliance, particularly in the treatment of different diseases characterized by Disease Related Groups (DRG) in terms of effectiveness, efficiency and resource utilization, this study aims to address the centralized decision-making of intra-hospital patient referral within the medical alliance to enhance the overall production and quality of service provided. We first introduce the notion of production utility, where a higher production utility for a hospital implies better performance in treating patients diagnosed with that specific DRG group of diseases. Then, a Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) framework is established for patient referral among hospitals, where patient flow modeling incorporates a queueing system with fixed capacities for each hospital. The simulation study begins with a two-member alliance. The pivotal strategy examined is a "whether-to-refer" decision triggered when the bed usage rate surpasses a predefined threshold for either hospital. Then, the decision encompasses referring patients to the other hospital based on DRG groups’ production utility differentials as well as bed availability. The objective is to maximize the total production utility of the alliance while minimizing patients’ average length of stay and turnover rate. Thus the parameter under scrutiny is the bed usage rate threshold, influencing the efficacy of the referral strategy. Extending the study to a three-member alliance, which could readily be generalized to multi-member alliances, we maintain the core setup while introducing an additional “which-to-refer" decision that involves referring patients with specific DRG groups to the member hospital according to their respective production utility rankings. The overarching goal remains consistent, for which the bed usage rate threshold is once again a focal point for analysis. For the two-member alliance scenario, our simulation results indicate that the optimal bed usage rate threshold hinges on the discrepancy in the number of beds between member hospitals, the distribution of DRG groups among incoming patients, and variations in production utilities across hospitals. Transitioning to the three-member alliance, we observe similar dependencies on these parameters. Additionally, it becomes evident that an imbalanced distribution of DRG diagnoses and further disparity in production utilities among member hospitals may lead to an increase in the turnover rate. In general, it was found that the intra-hospital referral mechanism enhances the overall production utility of the medical alliance compared to individual hospitals without partnership. Patients’ average length of stay is also reduced, showcasing the positive impact of the collaborative approach. However, the turnover rate exhibits variability based on parameter setups, particularly when patients are redirected within the alliance. In conclusion, the re-structuring of diagnostic disease groups within the medical alliance proves instrumental in improving overall healthcare service outcomes, providing a compelling rationale for the government's promotion of patient referrals within collaborative medical alliances.

Keywords: collaborative medical alliance, disease related group, patient referral, simulation

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Authors: Eric Pla Erra, Mariana Jimenez Martinez

Abstract:

While aggregated loads at a community level tend to be easier to predict, individual household load forecasting present more challenges with higher volatility and uncertainty. Furthermore, the drastic changes that our behavior patterns have suffered due to the COVID-19 pandemic have modified our daily electrical consumption curves and, therefore, further complicated the forecasting methods used to predict short-term electric load. Load forecasting is vital for the smooth and optimized planning and operation of our electric grids, but it also plays a crucial role for individual domestic consumers that rely on a HEMS (Home Energy Management Systems) to optimize their energy usage through self-generation, storage, or smart appliances management. An accurate forecasting leads to higher energy savings and overall energy efficiency of the household when paired with a proper HEMS. In order to study how COVID-19 has affected the accuracy of forecasting methods, an evaluation of the performance of a state-of-the-art LGBM (Light Gradient Boosting Model) will be conducted during the transition between pre-pandemic and lockdowns periods, considering day-ahead electric load forecasting. LGBM improves the capabilities of standard Decision Tree models in both speed and reduction of memory consumption, but it still offers a high accuracy. Even though LGBM has complex non-linear modelling capabilities, it has proven to be a competitive method under challenging forecasting scenarios such as short series, heterogeneous series, or data patterns with minimal prior knowledge. An adaptation of the LGBM model – called “resilient LGBM” – will be also tested, incorporating a concept drift detection technique for time series analysis, with the purpose to evaluate its capabilities to improve the model’s accuracy during extreme events such as COVID-19 lockdowns. The results for the LGBM and resilient LGBM will be compared using standard RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) as the main performance metric. The models’ performance will be evaluated over a set of real households’ hourly electricity consumption data measured before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. All households are located in the city of Barcelona, Spain, and present different consumption profiles. This study is carried out under the ComMit-20 project, financed by AGAUR (Agència de Gestiód’AjutsUniversitaris), which aims to determine the short and long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on building energy consumption, incrementing the resilience of electrical systems through the use of tools such as HEMS and artificial intelligence.

Keywords: concept drift, forecasting, home energy management system (HEMS), light gradient boosting model (LGBM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: Mohammed Jibrin Ndejiko

Abstract:

Modern and current models such as flow cell technology which enhances a non-destructive growth and inspection of the sessile microbial communities revealed a great understanding of biofilms. A continuous flow system was designed to evaluate possibility of biofilm formation by Escherichia coli DH5α on the stainless steel (type 304) under continuous nutrient supply. The result of the colony forming unit (CFU) count shows that bacterial attachment and subsequent biofilm formation on stainless steel coupons with average surface roughness of 1.5 ± 1.8 µm and 2.0 ± 0.09 µm were both significantly higher (p ≤ 0.05) than those of the stainless steel coupon with lower surface roughness of 0.38 ± 1.5 µm. These observations support the hypothesis that surface profile is one of the factors that influence biofilm formation on stainless steel surfaces. The SEM and FESEM micrographs of the stainless steel coupons also revealed the attached Escherichia coli DH5α biofilm and dehydrated extracellular polymeric substance on the stainless steel surfaces. Thus, the fabricated flow system represented a very useful tool to study biofilm formation under continuous nutrient supply.

Keywords: biofilm, flowcell, stainless steel, coupon

Procedia PDF Downloads 306

Authors: Khaled Ayfi

Abstract:

In industrial oxygen systems at high temperature and high pressure, contamination by solid particles is one of the principal causes of ignition hazards. Indeed, gas can sweep away particles, generated by corrosion inside the pipes or during maintenance operations (welding residues, careless disassembly, etc.) and produce accumulations at places where the gas velocity decrease. Moreover, in such an environment rich in oxygen (oxidant), particles are highly reactive and can ignite system walls more actively and at higher temperatures. Oxidation based thermal effects are responsible for mechanical properties lost, leading to the destruction of the pressure equipment wall. To deal with this problem, a numerical analysis is done regarding a sample representative of a wall subjected to pressure and temperature. The validation and analysis are done comparing the numerical simulations results to experimental measurements. More precisely, in this work, we propose a numerical model that describes the thermomechanical behavior of thin metal disks under pressure and subjected to laser heating. This model takes into account the geometric and material nonlinearity and has been validated by the comparison of simulation results with experimental measurements.

Keywords: ignition, oxygen, numerical simulation, thermomechanical behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Jianfeng Hu

Abstract:

Personal authentication based on electroencephalography (EEG) signals is one of the important field for the biometric technology. More and more researchers have used EEG signals as data source for biometric. However, there are some disadvantages for biometrics based on EEG signals. The proposed method employs entropy measures for feature extraction from EEG signals. Four type of entropies measures, sample entropy (SE), fuzzy entropy (FE), approximate entropy (AE) and spectral entropy (PE), were deployed as feature set. In a silhouettes calculation, the distance from each data point in a cluster to all another point within the same cluster and to all other data points in the closest cluster are determined. Thus silhouettes provide a measure of how well a data point was classified when it was assigned to a cluster and the separation between them. This feature renders silhouettes potentially well suited for assessing cluster quality in personal authentication methods. In this study, “silhouettes scores” was used for assessing the cluster quality of k-means clustering algorithm is well suited for comparing the performance of each EEG dataset. The main goals of this study are: (1) to represent each target as a tuple of multiple feature sets, (2) to assign a suitable measure to each feature set, (3) to combine different feature sets, (4) to determine the optimal feature weighting. Using precision/recall evaluations, the effectiveness of feature weighting in clustering was analyzed. EEG data from 22 subjects were collected. Results showed that: (1) It is possible to use fewer electrodes (3-4) for personal authentication. (2) There was the difference between each electrode for personal authentication (p<0.01). (3) There is no significant difference for authentication performance among feature sets (except feature PE). Conclusion: The combination of k-means clustering algorithm and silhouette approach proved to be an accurate method for personal authentication based on EEG signals.

Keywords: personal authentication, K-mean clustering, electroencephalogram, EEG, silhouettes

Procedia PDF Downloads 268

Authors: Gholba Niranjan Dilip, Anil Kumar

Abstract:

Conduct of accurate reliable mapping of oil palm plantations and census of individual palm trees is a huge challenge. This study addresses this challenge and developed an optimized solution implemented deep learning techniques on remote sensing data. The oil palm is a very important tropical crop. To improve its productivity and land management, it is imperative to have accurate census over large areas. Since, manual census is costly and prone to approximations, a methodology for automated census using panchromatic images from Cartosat-2, SkySat and World View-3 satellites is demonstrated. It is selected two different study sites in Indonesia. The customized set of training data and ground-truth data are created for this study from Cartosat-2 images. The pre-trained model of Single Shot MultiBox Detector (SSD) Lite MobileNet V2 Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) from the TensorFlow Object Detection API is subjected to transfer learning on this customized dataset. The SSD model is able to generate the bounding boxes for each oil palm and also do the counting of palms with good accuracy on the panchromatic images. The detection yielded an F-Score of 83.16 % on seven different images. The detections are buffered and dissolved to generate polygons demarcating the boundaries of the oil palm plantations. This provided the area under the plantations and also gave maps of their location, thereby completing the automated census, with a fairly high accuracy (≈100%). The trained CNN was found competent enough to detect oil palm crowns from images obtained from multiple satellite sensors and of varying temporal vintage. It helped to estimate the increase in oil palm plantations from 2014 to 2021 in the study area. The study proved that high-resolution panchromatic satellite image can successfully be used to undertake census of oil palm plantations using CNNs.

Keywords: object detection, oil palm tree census, panchromatic images, single shot multibox detector

Procedia PDF Downloads 152