Search results for: probability matrix

Authors: Barbora Svechova, Monika Licbinska

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Geochemical modeling of mineralogical changes of various materials in contact with an aqueous solution is an important tool for predicting the processes and development of given materials at the site. The modeling focused on the mutual interaction of groundwater at the contact with the rock mass and its subsequent influence on concrete structures. The studied locality is located in Slovakia in the area of the Liptov Basin, which is a significant inter-mountain lowland, which is bordered on the north and south by the core mountains belt of the Tatras, where in the center the crystalline rises to the surface accompanied by Mesozoic cover. Groundwater in the area is bound to structures with complicated geological structures. From the hydrogeological point of view, it is an environment with a crack-fracture character. The area is characterized by a shallow surface circulation of groundwater without a significant collector structure, and from a chemical point of view, groundwater in the area has been classified as calcium bicarbonate with a high content of CO2 and SO4 ions. According to the European standard EN 206-1, these are waters with medium aggression towards the concrete. Three rock samples were taken from the area. Based on petrographic and mineralogical research, they were evaluated as calcareous shale, micritic limestone and crystalline shale. These three rock samples were placed in demineralized water for one month and the change in the chemical composition of the water was monitored. During the solution-rock interaction there was an increase in the concentrations of all major ions, except nitrates. There was an increase in concentration after a week, but at the end of the experiment, the concentration was lower than the initial value. Another experiment was the interaction of groundwater from the studied locality with a concrete structure. The concrete sample was also left in the water for 1 month. The results of the experiment confirmed the assumption of a reduction in the concentrations of calcium and bicarbonate ions in water due to the precipitation of amorphous forms of CaCO3 on the surface of the sample.Vice versa, it was surprising to increase the concentration of sulphates, sodium, iron and aluminum due to the leaching of concrete. Chemical analyzes from these experiments were performed in the PHREEQc program, which calculated the probability of the formation of amorphous forms of minerals. From the results of chemical analyses and hydrochemical modeling of water collected in situ and water from experiments, it was found: groundwater at the site is unsaturated and shows moderate aggression towards reinforced concrete structures according to EN 206-1a, which will affect the homogeneity and integrity of concrete structures; from the rocks in the given area, Ca, Na, Fe, HCO3 and SO4. Unsaturated waters will dissolve everything as soon as they come into contact with the solid matrix. The speed of this process then depends on the physicochemical parameters of the environment (T, ORP, p, n, water retention time in the environment, etc.).

Keywords: geochemical modeling, concrete , dissolution , PHREEQc

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: R. Vimal, K. Hari Hara Subramaniyan, C. Aswin, B. Logeshwaran, M. Ramesh

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Due to several environmental concerns, natural fibers have greatly replaced the synthetic fibers as a reinforcing material in polymer matrix composites. Among the natural fibers, jute fibers are the most abundant plant fibers which are manufactured mainly in countries like India. In recent years, modification of plant fibers with range of chemicals to increase various mechanical and thermal properties has been focused greatly. Among that, some of the plant fibers were modified using succinic anhydride. In the present study, Jute fibers have been modified chemically by treatment with succinic anhydride and glutaric anhydride at different concentrations of 5%, 10%, 20%, 30% and 40%. The fiber modification was done under retting condition at various retention times of 3, 6, 12, 24, 36, and 48 hours. The modification of fiber structure in both the cases is confirmed with Infrared Spectroscopy. The degree of modification increases with increase in retention time, but higher retention time has damaged the fiber structure which is common in both the cases. Comparatively, treatment of fibers with glutaric anhydride has shown efficient output than that of succinic anhydride. The unmodified fibers, succinylated fibers and glutarylated fibers at different retention times are reinforced with epoxy matrix at various volume fractions of fiber under room temperature. The composite made using unmodified fiber is used as a standard material. The tensile strength and flexural strength of the composites are analyzed in detail. Among these, the composite made with glutarylated fiber has shown good mechanical properties when compared to those made of succinylated and unmodified fiber.

Keywords: flexural strength, glutarylation, jute fibers, succinylation, tensile strength

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Authors: Chitaranjan Sharma

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The present paper deals with the analysis of a fuel supply system in an automobile engine of a four wheeler which is having both the option of fuel i.e. PETROL and CNG. Since CNG is cheaper than petrol so the priority is given to consume CNG as compared to petrol. An automatic switch is used to start petrol supply at the time of failure of CNG supply. Using regenerative point technique with Markov renewal process, the reliability characteristics which are useful to system designers are obtained.

Keywords: reliability, redundancy, repair time, transition, probability, regenerative points, markov renewal, process

Procedia PDF Downloads 551

Authors: Rabindranath Jana, Biswajit Maity, Keka Rana

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The most promising clean energy source is the fuel cell, since it does not generate toxic gases and other hazardous compounds. Again the direct methanol fuel cell (DMFC) is more user-friendly as it is easy to be miniaturized and suited as energy source for automobiles as well as domestic applications and portable devices. And unlike the hydrogen used for some fuel cells, methanol is a liquid that is easy to store and transport in conventional tanks. The most important part of a fuel cell is its membrane. Till now, an overall efficiency for a methanol fuel cell is reported to be about 20 ~ 25%. The lower efficiency of the cell may be due to the critical factors, e.g. slow reaction kinetics at the anode and methanol crossover. The oxidation of methanol is composed of a series of successive reactions creating formaldehyde and formic acid as intermediates that contribute to slow reaction rates and decreased cell voltage. Currently, the investigation of new anode catalysts to improve oxidation reaction rates is an active area of research as it applies to the methanol fuel cell. Surprisingly, there are very limited reports on nanostructured membranes, which are rather simple to manufacture with different tuneable compositions and are expected to allow only the proton permeation but not the methanol due to their molecular sizing effects and affinity to the membrane surface. We have developed a nanostructured fuel cell membrane from polydimethyl siloxane rubber (PDMS), ethylene methyl co-acrylate (EMA) and multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs). The effect of incorporating different proportions of f-MWNTs in polymer membrane has been studied. The introduction of f-MWNTs in polymer matrix modified the polymer structure, and therefore the properties of the device. The proton conductivity, measured by an AC impedance technique using open-frame and two-electrode cell and methanol permeability of the membranes was found to be dependent on the f-MWNTs loading. The proton conductivity of the membranes increases with increase in concentration of f-MWNTs concentration due to increased content of conductive materials. Measured methanol permeabilities at 60oC were found to be dependant on loading of f-MWNTs. The methanol permeability decreased from 1.5 x 10-6 cm²/s for pure film to 0.8 x 10-7 cm²/s for a membrane containing 0.5wt % f-MWNTs. This is due to increasing proportion of f-MWNTs, the matrix becomes more compact. From DSC melting curves it is clear that the polymer matrix with f-MWNTs is thermally stable. FT-IR studies show good interaction between EMA and f-MWNTs. XRD analysis shows good crystalline behavior of the prepared membranes. Significant cost savings can be achieved when using the blended films which contain less expensive polymers.

Keywords: fuel cell membrane, polydimethyl siloxane rubber, carbon nanotubes, proton conductivity, methanol permeability

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Authors: Silvia Faroni, Olivier Le Courtois, Krzysztof Ostaszewski

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While a lot of research concentrates on the merits of VaR and TCE, which are the two most classic risk indicators used by financial institutions, little has been written on explaining why regulators favor the choice of VaR or TCE in their set of rules. In this paper, we investigate the preferences of regulators with the aim of understanding why, for instance, a VaR with a given confidence level is ultimately retained. Further, this paper provides equivalence rules that explain how a given choice of VaR can be equivalent to a given choice of TCE. Then, we introduce a new risk indicator that extends TCE by providing a more versatile weighting of the constituents of probability distribution tails. All of our results are illustrated using the generalized Pareto distribution.

Keywords: generalized pareto distribution, generalized tail conditional expectation, regulator preferences, risk measure

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Authors: Yahya Asanoglu, Celaletdin Ergun

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Ceramic-matrix composites (CMC) have significant prominence in various engineering applications because of their heat resistance associated with an ability to withstand the brittle type of catastrophic failure. In this study, specific raw materials have been chosen for the purpose of having suitable CMC material for high-temperature dielectric applications. CMC material will be manufactured through the polymer infiltration and pyrolysis (PIP) method. During the manufacturing process, vacuum infiltration and autoclave will be applied so as to decrease porosity and obtain higher mechanical properties, although this advantage leads to a decrease in the electrical performance of the material. Time and temperature adjustment in pyrolysis parameters provide a significant difference in the properties of the resulting material. The mechanical and thermal properties will be investigated in addition to the measurement of dielectric constant and tangent loss values within the spectrum of Ku-band (12 to 18 GHz). Also, XRD, TGA/PTA analyses will be employed to prove the transition of precursor to ceramic phases and to detect critical transition temperatures. Additionally, SEM analysis on the fracture surfaces will be performed to see failure mechanism whether there is fiber pull-out, crack deflection and others which lead to ductility and toughness in the material. In this research, the cost-effectiveness and applicability of the PIP method will be proven in the manufacture of CMC materials while optimization of pyrolysis time, temperature and cycle for specific materials is detected by experiment. Also, several resins will be shown to be a potential raw material for CMC radome and antenna applications. This research will be distinguished from previous related papers due to the fact that in this research, the combination of different precursors and fabrics will be experimented with to specify the unique cons and pros of each combination. In this way, this is an experimental sum of previous works with unique PIP parameters and a guide to the manufacture of CMC radome and antenna.

Keywords: CMC, PIP, precursor, quartz

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Authors: Fahad Suleiman, Sammani Abdullahi

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The study depicts that a Wedderburn Artin – theorem for rings is considered to be a semisimple ring R which is isomorphic to a product of finitely many mi by mi matrix rings over division rings Di, for some integers n_i, both of which are uniquely determined up to permutation of the index i. It has been concluded that when R is simple the Wedderburn – Artin theorem is known as Wedderburn’s theorem.

Keywords: Commutativity, Wedderburn theorem, Semisimple ring, R module

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Authors: S. Rozhkova, O. Rozhkova, A. Harlova, V. Lasukov

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For optimal unbiased filter as mean-square and in the case of functioning anomalous noises in the observation memory channel, we have proved insensitivity of filter to inaccurate knowledge of the anomalous noise intensity matrix and its equivalence to truncated filter plotted only by non anomalous components of an observation vector.

Keywords: mathematical expectation, filtration, anomalous noise, memory

Procedia PDF Downloads 362

Authors: Xiuguo Zhao, Xudong Ren, Chen Su, Xinxi Xu, Fu Niu, Lingshuai Meng

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The respiratory diseases such as asthma, emphysema and bronchitis are connected with the air pollution and the number of these diseases tends to increase, which may attribute to the toxic aerosol deposition in human upper respiratory tract or in the bifurcation of human lung. The therapy of these diseases mostly uses pharmaceuticals in the form of aerosol delivered into the human upper respiratory tract or the lung. Understanding of airflow structures in human upper respiratory tract plays a very important role in the analysis of the “filtering” effect in the pharynx/larynx and for obtaining correct air-particle inlet conditions to the lung. However, numerical simulation based CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) technology has its own advantage on studying airflow structure in human upper respiratory tract. In this paper, a representative human upper respiratory tract is built and the CFD technology was used to investigate the air movement characteristic in the human upper respiratory tract. The airflow movement characteristic, the effect of the airflow movement on the shear stress distribution and the probability of the wall injury caused by the shear stress are discussed. Experimentally validated computational fluid-aerosol dynamics results showed the following: the phenomenon of airflow separation appears near the outer wall of the pharynx and the trachea. The high velocity zone is created near the inner wall of the trachea. The airflow splits at the divider and a new boundary layer is generated at the inner wall of the downstream from the bifurcation with the high velocity near the inner wall of the trachea. The maximum velocity appears at the exterior of the boundary layer. The secondary swirls and axial velocity distribution result in the high shear stress acting on the inner wall of the trachea and bifurcation, finally lead to the inner wall injury. The enhancement of breathing intensity enhances the intensity of the shear stress acting on the inner wall of the trachea and the bifurcation. If human keep the high breathing intensity for long time, not only the ability for the transportation and regulation of the gas through the trachea and the bifurcation fall, but also result in the increase of the probability of the wall strain and tissue injury.

Keywords: airflow structure, computational fluid dynamics, human upper respiratory tract, wall shear stress, numerical simulation

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Authors: M. S. Matlala, I. Ignatious

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Environmental sustainability has taken the center stage in human life all over the world. Energy is the most essential component of our life. The conventional sources of energy are non-renewable and have a detrimental environmental impact. Therefore, there is a need to move from conventional to non-conventional renewable energy sources to satisfy the world’s energy demands. The study aimed at screening for microbial cellulolytic enzymes using a proteomic approach. The objectives were to screen for microbial cellulases with high specific activity and separate the cellulolytic enzymes using a combination of zymography and two-dimensional (2-D) gel electrophoresis followed by tryptic digestion, Matrix-assisted Laser Desorption Ionisation-Time of Flight (MALDI-TOF) and bioinformatics analysis. Fungal and bacterial isolates were cultured in M9 minimal and Mandel media for a period of 168 hours at 60°C and 30°C with cellobiose and Avicel as carbon sources. Microbial cells were separated from supernatants through centrifugation, and the crude enzyme from the cultures was used for the determination of cellulase activity, zymography, SDS-PAGE, and two-dimensional gel electrophoresis. Five isolates, with lytic action on carbon sources studied, were a bacterial strain (BARK) and fungal strains (VCFF1, VCFF14, VCFF17, and VCFF18). Peak cellulase production by the selected isolates was found to be 3.8U/ml, 2.09U/ml, 3.38U/ml, 3.18U/ml, and 1.95U/ml, respectively. Two-dimensional gel protein maps resulted in the separation and quantitative expression of different proteins by the microbial isolates. MALDI-TOF analysis and database search showed that the expressed proteins in this study closely relate to different glycoside hydrolases produced by other microbial species with an acceptable confidence level of 100%.

Keywords: cellulases, energy, two-dimensional gel electrophoresis, matrix-assisted laser desorption ionisation-time of flight, MALDI-TOF MS

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Authors: Balwinder Singh, Veerpaul Kaur Mann

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A composite material is formed by the combination of two or more phases or materials. Natural minerals-derived Basalt fiber is a kind of fiber being introduced in the polymer composite industry due to its good mechanical properties similar to synthetic fibers and low cost, environment friendly. Also, there is a rising trend towards the use of industrial wastes as fillers in polymer composites with the aim of improving the properties of the composites. The mechanical properties of the fiber-reinforced polymer composites are influenced by various factors like fiber length, fiber weight %, filler weight %, filler size, etc. Thus, a detailed study has been done on the characterization of short-chopped Basalt fiber-reinforced polymer matrix composites using fly ash as filler. Taguchi’s L9 orthogonal array has been used to develop the composites by considering fiber length (6, 9 and 12 mm), fiber weight % (25, 30 and 35 %) and filler weight % (0, 5 and 10%) as input parameters with their respective levels and a thorough analysis on the mechanical characteristics (tensile strength and impact strength) has been done using ANOVA analysis with the help of MINITAB14 software. The investigation revealed that fiber weight is the most significant parameter affecting tensile strength, followed by fiber length and fiber weight %, respectively, while impact characterization showed that fiber length is the most significant factor, followed by fly ash weight, respectively. Introduction of fly ash proved to be beneficial in both the characterization with enhanced values upto 5% fly ash weight. The present study on the natural fibres reinforced epoxy composites using fly ash as filler material to study the effect of input parameters on the tensile strength in order to maximize tensile strength of the composites. Fabrication of composites based on Taguchi L9 orthogonal array design of experiments by using three factors fibre type, fibre weight % and fly ash % with three levels of each factor. The Optimization of composition of natural fibre reinforces composites using ANOVA for obtaining maximum tensile strength on fabricated composites revealed that the natural fibres along with fly ash can be successfully used with epoxy resin to prepare polymer matrix composites with good mechanical properties. Paddy- Paddy fibre gives high elasticity to the fibre composite due to presence of approximately hexagonal structure of cellulose present in paddy fibre. Coir- Coir fibre gives less tensile strength than paddy fibre as Coir fibre is brittle in nature when it pulls breakage occurs showing less tensile strength. Banana- Banana fibre has the least tensile strength in comparison to the paddy & coir fibre due to less cellulose content. Higher fibre weight leads to reduction in tensile strength due to increased nuclei of air pockets. Increasing fly ash content reduces tensile strength due to nonbonding of fly ash particles with natural fibre. Fly ash is also not very strong as compared to the epoxy resin leading to reduction in tensile strength.

Keywords: tensile strength and epoxy resin. basalt Fiber, taguchi, polymer matrix, natural fiber

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Authors: Paschal A. Ubi, Salawu Abdul Rahman Asipita

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The use of suitable engineering materials which poses less harm to ,an and the environment is sort for in recent times, thus giving rise to polymer composites filled with natural organic reinforcement which are biodegradable. Treatment of natural fibres is essential in improving matrix to filler adhesion, hence improving its mechanical properties. In this study, investigations were carried out to determine the effect of sodium hydroxide treatment on the tensile, flexural, impact and hardness properties of crushed and uncrushed luffa cylindrica fibre reinforced recycled low density polyethylene composites. The LC (Luffa Cylindrica) fibres were treated with 0%, 2%, 4%, 6%, 8%, and 10% wt. NaOH concentrations for a period of 24 hours under room temperature conditions. The compounding of the waste LDPE was done using a two roll mill at a temperature of 150 oC and cured in a hydraulic press at a temperature of 150oC for 3 minutes at 3 metric tonnes. A formulation of 20/80g (reinforcement to matrix ratio in grams) was maintained for all fabricated samples. Analysis of the results showed that the uncrushed luffa fibre samples gave better mechanical properties compared with the crushed luffa fibre samples. The uncrushed luffa fibre composites had optimum tensile and flexural strengths of 7.65MPa and 17.08Mpa respectively corresponding to a young modulus and flexural modulus of 21.08MPa and 232.22MPa for the 8% and 4%wt. NaOH concentration respectively. Results obtained in the research showed that NaOH treatment with the 8% NaOH concentration improves the mechanical properties of the LC fibre reinforced composites when compared with other NaOH treatment concentration values.

Keywords: LC fibres, NaOH concentration, LC/rLDPE composite, tensile strength, flexural strength

Procedia PDF Downloads 282

Authors: Simone F. Medeiros, Isabela F. Santos, Rodolfo M. Moraes, Jaspreet K. Kular, Marcus A. Johns, Ram Sharma, Amilton M. Santos

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Tissue engineering aims to develop alternatives to treat damaged tissues by promoting their regeneration. Its basic principle is to place cells on a scaffold capable of promoting cell functions, and for this purpose, polymeric nanoparticles have been successfully used due to the ability of some macro chains to mimic the extracellular matrix and influence cell functions. In general, nanoparticles require surface chemical modification to achieve cell adhesion, and recent advances in their synthesis include methods for modifying the ligand density and distribution onto nanoparticles surface. However, this work reports the development of biodegradable polymeric nanoparticles capable of promoting cellular adhesion without any surface chemical modification by ligands. Biocompatible and biodegradable nanoparticles based on poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) (PHBHV) were synthesized by solvent evaporation method. The produced nanoparticles were small in size (85 and 125 nm) and colloidally stable against time in aqueous solution. Morphology evaluation showed their spherical shape with small polydispersity. Human osteoblast-like cells (MG63) were cultured in the presence of PHBHV nanoparticles, and growth kinetics were compared to those grown on tissue culture polystyrene (TCPS). Cell attachment on non-tissue culture polystyrene (non-TCPS) pre-coated with nanoparticles was assessed and compared to attachment on TCPS. These findings reveal the potential of PHBHV nanoparticles for cell adhesion and growth, without requiring a matrix ligand to support cells, to be used as scaffolds, in tissue engineering applications.

Keywords: tissue engineering, PHBHV, stem cells, cellular attachment

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Authors: Victor Prevost, Solene Landerneau, Michel Duhamel, Joel Sternheimer, Olivier Gallet, Pedro Ferrandiz, Marwa Mokni

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The search for homologous proteins is one of the ongoing challenges in biology and bioinformatics. Traditionally, a pair of proteins is thought to be homologous when they originate from the same ancestral protein. In such a case, their sequences share similarities, and advanced scientific research effort is spent to investigate this question. On this basis, we propose the Protein-Wave Alignment Tool (”P-WAT”) developed within the framework of the France Relance 2030 plan. Our work takes into consideration the mass-related wave aspect of protein biosynthesis, by associating specific frequencies to each amino acid according to its mass. Amino acids are then regrouped within their mass category. This way, our algorithm produces specific alignments in addition to those obtained with a common amino acid coding system. For this purpose, we develop the ”P-WAT” original algorithm, able to address large protein databases, with different attributes such as species, protein names, etc. that allow us to align user’s requests with a set of specific protein sequences. The primary intent of this algorithm is to achieve efficient alignments, in this specific conceptual frame, by minimizing execution costs and information loss. Our algorithm identifies sequence similarities by searching for matches of sub-sequences of different sizes, referred to as primers. Our algorithm relies on Boolean operations upon a dot plot matrix to identify primer amino acids common to both proteins which are likely to be part of a significant alignment of peptides. From those primers, dynamic programming-like traceback operations generate alignments and alignment scores based on an adjusted PAM250 matrix.

Keywords: protein, alignment, homologous, Genodic

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Larry Wang

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The aim of this paper is to demonstrate how an online homework system is integrated in teaching and learning mathematics and how it improves the student success rates in some gateway mathematics courses. WeBWork provided by the Mathematical Association of America is adopted as the online homework system. During the period of 2010-2015, the system was implemented in classes of precalculus, calculus, probability and statistics, discrete mathematics, linear algebra, and differential equations. As a result, the passing rates of the sections with WeBWork are well above other sections without WeBWork (about 7-10% higher). The paper also shows how the WeBWork system was used.

Keywords: gateway mathematics, online grading, pass rate, WeBWorK

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Authors: Qimin Shi, Yi Sun, Constantinus Politis, Shoufeng Yang

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In-situ preparation of particle-reinforced aluminium matrix composites (PRAMCs) by laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) additive manufacturing is a promising strategy to strengthen traditional Al-based alloys. The laser-driven thermite reaction can be a practical mechanism to in-situ synthesize PRAMCs. However, introducing oxygen elements through adding Fe₂O₃ makes the powder mixture highly sensitive to form porosity and Al₂O₃ film during LPBF, bringing challenges to producing dense Al-based materials. Therefore, this work develops a processing strategy combined with consecutive high-energy laser melting scanning and low-energy laser remelting scanning to prepare PRAMCs from a Fe₂O₃/AlSi12 powder mixture. The powder mixture consists of 5 wt% Fe₂O₃ and the remainder AlSi12 powder. The addition of 5 wt% Fe₂O₃ aims to achieve balanced strength and ductility. A high relative density (98.2 ± 0.55 %) was successfully obtained by optimizing laser melting (Emelting) and laser remelting surface energy density (Eremelting) to Emelting = 35 J/mm² and Eremelting = 5 J/mm². Results further reveal the necessity of increasing Emelting, to improve metal liquid’s spreading/wetting by breaking up the Al₂O₃ films surrounding the molten pools; however, the high-energy laser melting produced much porosity, including H₂₋, O₂₋ and keyhole-induced pores. The subsequent low-energy laser remelting could close the resulting internal pores, backfill open gaps and smoothen solidified surfaces. As a result, the material was densified by repeating laser melting and laser remelting layer by layer. Although with two-times laser scanning, the microstructure still shows fine cellular Si networks with Al grains inside (grain size of about 370 nm) and in-situ nano-precipitates (Al₂O₃, Si, and Al-Fe(-Si) intermetallics). Finally, the fine microstructure, nano-structured dispersion strengthening, and high-level densification strengthened the in-situ PRAMCs, reaching yield strength of 426 ± 4 MPa and tensile strength of 473 ± 6 MPa. Furthermore, the results can expect to provide valuable information to process other powder mixtures with severe porosity/oxide-film formation potential, considering the evidenced contribution of laser melting/remelting strategy to densify material and obtain good mechanical properties during LPBF.

Keywords: densification, laser powder bed fusion, metal matrix composites, microstructures, mechanical properties

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Authors: Chun Hsien Wu, Guan Xuan Wu, Hsia Ying Cheng, Shyh Ming Kuo

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Articular cartilage is composed of chondrocytes and extracellular matrix, such as collagen fibers, glycosaminoglycans, etc., which play an important role in lubricating and cushion joint activities. The phenotypic expression and metabolic activity of chondrocytes are extremely important in maintaining the functions of articular cartilage. In in vitro passaged culture of chondrocytes, chondrocytes gradually lose their original cell phenotype and morphology, which is called dedifferentiation. After continuous passaged culture of chondrocytes or induction by inflammatory factor IL-1, chondrocytes changed their phenotype and morphology. Also, the extracellular matrix type II collagen and GAG secretion were significantly reduced, while type I and X collagen were synthesized. Farnesol is an anti-inflammatory and antioxidant sesquiterpene compound that has the specific property of promoting collagen production. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether farnesol could restore the original type II collagen synthesis and, furthermore, the mechanisms of farnesol on the synthesis of type II collagen from the de-differentiated chondrocytes. The obtained results showed that the de-differentiated chondrocytes significantly restored to secret type II collagen and GAG (2.5-folds increases), and the secretion of collagen I and X and PGE2 synthesis were also significantly reduced after being treated with farnesol, indicating that farnesol had a restoration/re-differentiation effect on de-differentiated chondrocytes. The de-differentiated chondrocytes exhibited decreased expression of PPAR-γ and upregulated TGF-β expression to increase the MMP-13 expression. Higher expression of MMP-13 caused chondrocytes to secret type X collagen. On the contrary, increasing the expression of PPAR-γ would benefit the production of type II collagen. As shown, the PPAR-γ expression increased, and MMP-13 expression decreased after being treated with farnesol, indicating a possible signal pathway of farnesol to restore the production of type II collagen. However, more detailed mechanisms still need to evaluate.

Keywords: chondrocytes, de-differentiation, farnesol, re-differentiation

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Authors: Yasaman Esfandiari

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Mechanical engineering has always dealt with amplification of the input power in power trains. One of the ways to achieve this goal is to use gears to change the amplitude and direction of the torque and the speed. However, the gears should be optimally designed to best achieve these objectives. In this study, helical gear systems are optimized to achieve maximum power. Material selection, space restriction, available facilities for manufacturing, the probability of tooth breakage, and tooth wear are taken into account and governing equations are derived. Finally, a Matlab code was generated to solve the optimization problem and the results are verified.

Keywords: design, gears, Matlab, optimization

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Authors: Ravinder Bahl, Jamini Sharma

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The paper demonstrates analysis of the cervical cancer based on a probabilistic model. It involves technique for classification and prediction by recognizing typical and diagnostically most important test features relating to cervical cancer. The main contributions of the research include predicting the probability of recurrences in no recurrence (first time detection) cases. The combination of the conventional statistical and machine learning tools is applied for the analysis. Experimental study with real data demonstrates the feasibility and potential of the proposed approach for the said cause.

Keywords: cervical cancer, recurrence, no recurrence, probabilistic, classification, prediction, machine learning

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Authors: Arunas Burinskas, Aurelija Burinskiene

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On average, ten percent of drugs - commercial products are not available in pharmacies due to shortage. The shortage event disbalance sales and requires a recovery period, which is too long. Therefore, one of the critical issues that pharmacies do not record potential sales transactions during shortage and recovery periods. The authors suggest estimating outliers during shortage and recovery periods. To shorten the recovery period, the authors suggest using average sales per sales day prediction, which helps to protect the data from being downwards or upwards. Authors use the outlier’s visualization method across different drugs and apply the Grubbs test for significance evaluation. The researched sample is 100 drugs in a one-month time frame. The authors detected that high demand variability products had outliers. Among analyzed drugs, which are commercial products i) High demand variability drugs have a one-week shortage period, and the probability of facing a shortage is equal to 69.23%. ii) Mid demand variability drugs have three days shortage period, and the likelihood to fall into deficit is equal to 34.62%. To avoid shortage events and minimize the recovery period, real data must be set up. Even though there are some outlier detection methods for drug data cleaning, they have not been used for the minimization of recovery period once a shortage has occurred. The authors use Grubbs’ test real-life data cleaning method for outliers’ adjustment. In the paper, the outliers’ adjustment method is applied with a confidence level of 99%. In practice, the Grubbs’ test was used to detect outliers for cancer drugs and reported positive results. The application of the Grubbs’ test is used to detect outliers which exceed boundaries of normal distribution. The result is a probability that indicates the core data of actual sales. The application of the outliers’ test method helps to represent the difference of the mean of the sample and the most extreme data considering the standard deviation. The test detects one outlier at a time with different probabilities from a data set with an assumed normal distribution. Based on approximation data, the authors constructed a framework for scaling potential sales and estimating outliers with Grubbs’ test method. The suggested framework is applicable during the shortage event and recovery periods. The proposed framework has practical value and could be used for the minimization of the recovery period required after the shortage of event occurrence.

Keywords: drugs, Grubbs' test, outlier, shortage event

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Authors: Abubakar Sadiq Mensah

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The Knowledge of the population growth of a nation is paramount to national planning. The population of a place is studied and a model developed over a period of time, Matrices is used to form model for population growth. The eigenvalue ƛ of the matrix A and its corresponding eigenvector X is such that AX = ƛX is calculated. The stable age distribution of the population is obtained using the eigenvalue and the characteristic polynomial. Hence, estimation could be made using eigenvalues and eigenvectors.

Keywords: eigenvalues, eigenvectors, population, growth/stability

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Authors: Heiko Diefenbach, Christoph H. Glock

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Order picking, i.e., the order-based retrieval of items in a warehouse, is an important time- and cost-intensive process for many logistic systems. Despite the ongoing trend of automation, most order picking systems are still manual picker-to-parts systems, where human pickers walk through the warehouse to collect ordered items. Human work in warehouses is not free from errors, and order pickers may at times pick the wrong or the incorrect number of items. Errors can cause additional costs and significant correction efforts. Moreover, age might increase a person’s likelihood to make mistakes. Hence, the negative impact of picking errors might increase for an aging workforce currently witnessed in many regions globally. A significant amount of research has focused on making order picking systems more efficient. Among other factors, storage assignment, i.e., the assignment of items to storage locations (e.g., shelves) within the warehouse, has been subject to optimization. Usually, the objective is to assign items to storage locations such that order picking times are minimized. Surprisingly, there is a lack of research concerned with picking errors and respective prevention approaches. This paper hypothesize that the storage assignment of items can affect the probability of pick errors. For example, storing similar-looking items apart from one other might reduce confusion. Moreover, storing items that are hard to count or require a lot of counting at easy-to-access and easy-to-comprehend self heights might reduce the probability to pick the wrong number of items. Based on this hypothesis, the paper discusses how to incorporate error-prevention measures into mathematical models for storage assignment optimization. Various approaches with respective benefits and shortcomings are presented and mathematically modeled. To investigate the newly developed models further, they are compared to conventional storage assignment strategies in a computational study. The study specifically investigates how the importance of error prevention increases with pickers being more prone to errors due to age, for example. The results suggest that considering error-prevention measures for storage assignment can reduce error probabilities with only minor decreases in picking efficiency. The results might be especially relevant for an aging workforce.

Keywords: an aging workforce, error prevention, order picking, storage assignment

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Authors: Vinod Kumar Jaysaval, Prateek Agarwal

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Performance prediction of airborne radar is a challenging and cumbersome task in clutter scenario for different types of targets. A generalized model requires to predict the performance of Radar for air targets as well as ground moving targets. In this paper, we propose a generalized model to bring out the performance of airborne radar for different Pulsed Repetition Frequency (PRF) as well as different type of targets. The model provides a platform to bring out different subsystem parameters for different applications and performance requirements under different types of clutter terrain.

Keywords: airborne radar, blind zone, clutter, probability of detection

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Authors: H. S. Kang

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Coupled electrical and optical model for conversion of electrical energy into coherent optical energy for transmitter-receiver link by solid state device is presented. Probability distribution for travelling laser beam switching time intervals and the number of switchings in the time interval is obtained. Selector function mapping is employed to regulate optical data transmission speed. It is established that regulated laser transmission from PhotoActive Laser transmitter follows principal of invariance. This considerably simplifies design of PhotoActive Laser Transmission networks.

Keywords: computational mathematics, finite difference Markov chain methods, sequence spaces, singularly perturbed differential equations

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Authors: Abd El Hady N. Ebraheim

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This paper introduces a new generalization of the two parameter Weibull distribution. To this end, the quadratic rank transmutation map has been used. This new distribution is named exponentiated transmuted Weibull (ETW) distribution. The ETW distribution has the advantage of being capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure criteria. Furthermore, eleven lifetime distributions such as the Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, Rayleigh and exponential distributions, among others follow as special cases. The properties of the new model are discussed and the maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters. Explicit expressions are derived for the quantiles. The moments of the distribution are derived, and the order statistics are examined.

Keywords: exponentiated, inversion method, maximum likelihood estimation, transmutation map

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Authors: Mutwakil Nafi, Abed Elaziz El Amein, Muna El Dawi, Khalafala Salih, Osma Elbahi, Abed Elhalim Abou

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Recently a large deposit of oolitic iron ore of Late Carboniferous-Permotriassic-Lower Jurassic age was discovered in Wadi Halfa and Argein areas, North Sudan. It seems that the iron ore mineralization exists in the west and east bank of the River Nile of the study area that are found on the Egyptian-Sudanese border. The Carboniferous-Lower Jurassic age strata were covered by 67 sections and each section has been examined and carefully described. The iron-ore in Wadi Halfa occurs as oolitic ironstone and contained two horizons: (A) horizon and (B) horizon. Only horizon (A) was observed in southern Argein area. The texture of the ore is variable depending on the volume of the component. In thin sections the average of the ooids were ranged between 90% - 80%. The matrix varies between 10%-20% by volume and detritus quartz in other component my reach up to 30% by volume in sandy massive ore. Ooids size ranges from 0.2mm-1.00 mm on average in very coarse ooids may attend up to 1 mm in size. The matrix around the ooids is dominated by iron hydroxide, carbonate, fine and amorphous silica. The probable ore reserve estimate of 1.234 billion at a head grade of 41.29% Fe for the Wadi Halfa Oolitic Ironstone Formation. The iron ore shows higher content of phosphorus ranges from 6.15% to 0.16%, with mean 1.45%. The new technology Hatch–Ironstone Chloride Segregation (HICS) can be used to produce commercial-quality of iron and reduce phosphorus and silica to acceptable levels for steel industry. The development of infra structures and presence huge quantity of iron ore would make exploitation of the iron ore economic.

Keywords: HICS, Late Carboniferous age, oolitic iron ore, phosphorus

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Authors: Alexandru George Vaduva, Adriana Vlad, Bogdan Badea

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In this research, we conduct a Monte Carlo analysis on a two-dimensional χ2 test, which is used to determine the minimum distance required for independent sampling in the context of chaotic signals. We investigate the impact of transforming initial data sets from any probability distribution to new signals with a uniform distribution using the Spearman rank correlation on the χ2 test. This transformation removes the randomness of the data pairs, and as a result, the observed distribution of χ2 test values differs from the expected distribution. We propose a solution to this problem and evaluate it using another chaotic signal.

Keywords: chaotic signals, logistic map, Pearson’s test, Chi Square test, bivariate distribution, statistical independence

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Authors: G. Wojcik, J. Gindlhuber, A. Syarif, K. Hoetzenecker, P. Bohm, P. Vesely, V. Biasin, G. Kwapiszewska

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Pulmonary fibrosis is a rare disease where uncontrolled wound healing processes damage the lung structure. Intensive changes within the extracellular matrix (ECM) and its interaction with fibroblasts have a major role in pulmonary fibrosis development. Among others, collagen is one of the main components of the ECM, and it is important for lung structure. In IPF, constant production of collagen by fibroblast, through TGFβ1-SMAD2/3 pathways, leads to an uncontrolled deposition of matrix and hence lung remodeling. Abnormal changes in lipid production, alterations in fatty acids (FAs) metabolism, enhanced oxidative stress, and lipid peroxidation in fibrotic lung and fibrotic fibroblasts have been reported; however, the interplay between the collagen and lipids is not yet established. One of the FAs influx regulators is Angiopoietin-like 4 (ANGPTL4), which inhibits lipoprotein lipase work, decreasing the availability of FAs. We hypothesized that altered lipid composition or availability could have the capability to influence the phenotype of different fibroblast populations in the lung and hence influence lung fibrosis. To prove our hypothesis, we aim to investigate lipids and their influence on human, animal, and in vitro levels. In the bleomycin model, treatment with the well-known metabolic drugs Rosiglitazone or Metformin significantly lower collagen production. Similar results were noticed in ANGPTL4 KO animals, where the KO of ANGPTL4 leads to an increase of FAs availability and lower collagen deposition after the bleomycin challenge. Currently, we study the treatment of different FAs on human lung para fibroblasts (hPF) isolated from donors. To understand the lipid composition, we are collecting human lung tissue from donors and pulmonary fibrosis patients for Liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. In conclusion, our results suggest the lipid influence on collagen deposition during lung fibrosis, but further research needs to be conducted to understand the matter of this relationship.

Keywords: collagen, fibroblasts, lipidomics, lung, pulmonary fibrosis

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Authors: Zahra Mila Elmi, Mahsa Khanekheshi

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Almost half of the population and potential manpower in the country and rural areas are women. Manpower especially educated people, plays an important role in the production and economic growth. Also, the potential of rural areas to create employment should not be overlooked. In this research, the effects of socio-economic and demographic factors on women's economic participation in rural areas of Iran's provinces will be studied. Therefore, this study was performed by using the results of the rural households income and expenditure surveys -has been taken in 2016- in the framework of pseudo panel data. This study used the logit model and the maximum likelihood method to study the rural women's participation, with 28,265 observations. Results show the inverted U-shaped relationship between age and the probability of female participation; In other words, young women are more likely to participate in labor markets more than the other groups. Divorced and single woman has more chance of participation in comparison with who was being married. With increasing the divorce rate and singleness in Iran, economic policymakers must provide appropriate solutions for this challenge in the coming years. On the base of the results, being a student and the presence of an infant under the age of 6 in the household has a negative effect on the possibility of women's participation in the labor market. The women's education level has a U-shaped relationship with their participation rate. Illiteracy and high education have a strong positive effect on the economic participation of rural women. This shows the dual labor market for women in Iran. Illiterate women are attracted to service jobs, and educated woman are more attracted to education and health jobs. Increasing household income has a small but positive and significant effect on the probability of rural female participation. In the overlook, due to the frequency of the women population in the age group of 25 to 35 years, and more willingness of women in the age 35 to 44 years to participate in the labor market, and studying ofa significant portion of the rural women, the increase of rural female participation is expected in the years ahead. Thus, it is expected policy maker to create new job opportunities for the employment of educated women and take the necessary plan to improve the current situation for women.

Keywords: female participation rate, rural area, provincial data, pseudo-panel data method

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Authors: André Python

Abstract:

To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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