Search results for: quantification accuracy

Authors: Georgiana Onicescu, Yuqian Shen

Abstract:

Due to the complex nature of geo-referenced data, multicollinearity of the risk factors in public health spatial studies is a commonly encountered issue, which leads to low parameter estimation accuracy because it inflates the variance in the regression analysis. To address this issue, we proposed a two-stage variable selection method by extending the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) to the Bayesian spatial setting, investigating the impact of risk factors to health outcomes. Specifically, in stage I, we performed the variable selection using Bayesian Lasso and several other variable selection approaches. Then, in stage II, we performed the model selection with only the selected variables from stage I and compared again the methods. To evaluate the performance of the two-stage variable selection methods, we conducted a simulation study with different distributions for the risk factors, using geo-referenced count data as the outcome and Michigan as the research region. We considered the cases when all candidate risk factors are independently normally distributed, or follow a multivariate normal distribution with different correlation levels. Two other Bayesian variable selection methods, Binary indicator, and the combination of Binary indicator and Lasso were considered and compared as alternative methods. The simulation results indicated that the proposed two-stage Bayesian Lasso variable selection method has the best performance for both independent and dependent cases considered. When compared with the one-stage approach, and the other two alternative methods, the two-stage Bayesian Lasso approach provides the highest estimation accuracy in all scenarios considered.

Keywords: Lasso, Bayesian analysis, spatial analysis, variable selection

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: Yuexi Xiong, Jingwu He

Abstract:

The structural components in an energy facility such as steam turbine machines are operated under high stress and elevated temperature in an endured time period and thus the creep deformation and creep rupture failure are important issues that need to be addressed in the design of such components. There are numerous creep models being used for creep analysis that have both advantages and disadvantages in terms of accuracy and efficiency. The Isochronous Creep Analysis is one of the simplified approaches in which a full-time dependent creep analysis is avoided and instead an elastic-plastic analysis is conducted at each time point. This approach has been established based on the rupture dependent creep equations using the well-known Larson-Miller parameter. In this paper, some fundamental aspects of creep deformation and the rupture dependent creep models are reviewed and the analysis procedures using isochronous creep curves are discussed. Four rupture failure criteria are examined from creep fundamental perspectives including criteria of Stress Damage, Strain Damage, Strain Rate Damage, and Strain Capability. The accuracy of these criteria in predicting creep life is discussed and applications of the creep analysis procedures and failure predictions of simple models will be presented. In addition, a new failure criterion is proposed to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of the existing criteria. Comparisons are made between the existing criteria and the new one using several examples materials. Both strain increase and stress relaxation form a full picture of the creep behaviour of a material under high temperature in an endured time period. It is important to bear this in mind when dealing with creep problems. Accordingly there are two sets of rupture dependent creep equations. While the rupture strength vs LMP equation shows how the rupture time depends on the stress level under load controlled condition, the strain rate vs rupture time equation reflects how the rupture time behaves under strain-controlled condition. Among the four existing failure criteria for rupture life predictions, the Stress Damage and Strain Damage Criteria provide the most conservative and non-conservative predictions, respectively. The Strain Rate and Strain Capability Criteria provide predictions in between that are believed to be more accurate because the strain rate and strain capability are more determined quantities than stress to reflect the creep rupture behaviour. A modified Strain Capability Criterion is proposed making use of the two sets of creep equations and therefore is considered to be more accurate than the original Strain Capability Criterion.

Keywords: creep analysis, high temperature mateials, rapture evalution, steam turbine machines

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Jing Wu, Wei Lv, Yibing Li, Yuanfan You

Abstract:

The separation of speech signals has become a research hotspot in the field of signal processing in recent years. It has many applications and influences in teleconferencing, hearing aids, speech recognition of machines and so on. The sounds received are usually noisy. The issue of identifying the sounds of interest and obtaining clear sounds in such an environment becomes a problem worth exploring, that is, the problem of blind source separation. This paper focuses on the under-determined blind source separation (UBSS). Sparse component analysis is generally used for the problem of under-determined blind source separation. The method is mainly divided into two parts. Firstly, the clustering algorithm is used to estimate the mixing matrix according to the observed signals. Then the signal is separated based on the known mixing matrix. In this paper, the problem of mixing matrix estimation is studied. This paper proposes an improved algorithm to estimate the mixing matrix for speech signals in the UBSS model. The traditional potential algorithm is not accurate for the mixing matrix estimation, especially for low signal-to noise ratio (SNR).In response to this problem, this paper considers the idea of an improved potential function method to estimate the mixing matrix. The algorithm not only avoids the inuence of insufficient prior information in traditional clustering algorithm, but also improves the estimation accuracy of mixing matrix. This paper takes the mixing of four speech signals into two channels as an example. The results of simulations show that the approach in this paper not only improves the accuracy of estimation, but also applies to any mixing matrix.

Keywords: DBSCAN, potential function, speech signal, the UBSS model

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Adekunle Adesina, Dorcas Adesina

Abstract:

This Research investigated the influence of alcohol consumption on attention in Wister albino rats. It was designed to test whether or not alcohol consumption affected visual and auditory attention. The sample of this study comprise of 3males albino rats and 3 females albino rats which were randomly assigned to 3 (male/female each) groups, 1, 2 and 3. The first group which was experimental Group 1 received 4ml of alcohol ingestion with cannula twice daily (morning and evening). The second group which was experimental group 2 received 2ml of alcohol ingestion with cannula twice daily (morning and evening). Third group which was the control group only received water (placebo), all these happened within a period of 2 days. Three hypotheses were advanced and testedf in the study. Hypothesis 1 stated that there will be no significant difference between the response speed of albino rats that consume alcohol and those that consume water on visual attention using 5-CSRTT. This was confirmed (DF (2, 9) = 0.72, P <.05). Hypothesis 2 stated that albino rats who consumed alcohol will perform better than those who consume water on auditory accuracy using 5-CSRTT. This was also tested but not confirmed (DF (2, 9) = 2.10, P< .05). The third hypothesis which stated that female albino rats who consumed alcohol would not perform better than male albino rats who consumed alcohol on auditory accuracy using 5-CSRTT was tested and not confirmed. (DF (4) = 0.17, P < .05). Data was analyzed using one-way ANOVA and T-test for independent measures. It was therefore recommended that government policies and programs should be directed at reducing to the barest minimum the rate of alcohol consumption especially among males as it is detrimental to the human auditory attentional organ.

Keywords: alcohol, attention, influence, rats, Wistar

Procedia PDF Downloads 264

Authors: Gule Teri

Abstract:

The effective validation of analytical methods forms a crucial component of pharmaceutical manufacturing. However, traditional validation techniques can occasionally fail to fully account for inherent variations within datasets, which may result in inconsistent outcomes. This deficiency in validation accuracy is particularly noticeable when quantifying low concentrations of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), excipients, or impurities, introducing a risk to the reliability of the results and, subsequently, the safety and effectiveness of the pharmaceutical products. In response to this challenge, we introduce an enhanced, tolerance-based Design of Experiments (DoE) approach for the validation of analytical methods. This approach distinctly measures variability with reference to tolerance or design margins, enhancing the precision and trustworthiness of the results. This method provides a systematic, statistically grounded validation technique that improves the truthfulness of results. It offers an essential tool for industry professionals aiming to guarantee the accuracy of their measurements, particularly for low-concentration components. By incorporating this innovative method, pharmaceutical manufacturers can substantially advance their validation processes, subsequently improving the overall quality and safety of their products. This paper delves deeper into the development, application, and advantages of this tolerance-based DoE approach and demonstrates its effectiveness using High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) data for verification. This paper also discusses the potential implications and future applications of this method in enhancing pharmaceutical manufacturing practices and outcomes.

Keywords: tolerance-based design, design of experiments, analytical method validation, quality control, biopharmaceutical manufacturing

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Alexandra Papagianni, George Filis, Panagiotis Papadopoulos

Abstract:

The liberalization of the energy market and the increasing penetration of fluctuating renewables (e.g., wind and solar power) have heightened the importance of the spot market for ensuring efficient electricity supply. This is further emphasized by the EU’s goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The day-ahead market (DAM) plays a key role in European energy trading, accounting for 80-90% of spot transactions and providing critical insights for next-day pricing. Therefore, short-term electricity price forecasting (EPF) within the DAM is crucial for market participants to make informed decisions and improve their market positioning. Existing literature highlights out-of-sample performance as a key factor in assessing EPF accuracy, with influencing factors such as predictors, forecast horizon, model selection, and strategy. Several studies indicate that electricity demand is a primary price determinant, while renewable energy sources (RES) like wind and solar significantly impact price dynamics, often lowering prices. Additionally, incorporating data from neighboring countries, due to market coupling, further improves forecast accuracy. Most studies predict up to 24 steps ahead using hourly data, while some extend forecasts using higher-frequency data (e.g., half-hourly or quarter-hourly). Short-term EPF methods fall into two main categories: statistical and computational intelligence (CI) methods, with hybrid models combining both. While many studies use advanced statistical methods, particularly through different versions of traditional AR-type models, others apply computational techniques such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SVMs). Recent research combines multiple methods to enhance forecasting performance. Despite extensive research on EPF accuracy, a gap remains in understanding how forecasting strategy affects prediction outcomes. While iterated strategies are commonly used, they are often chosen without justification. This paper contributes by examining whether the choice of forecasting strategy impacts the quality of day-ahead price predictions, especially for multi-step forecasts. We evaluate both iterated and direct methods, exploring alternative ways of conducting iterated forecasts on benchmark and state-of-the-art forecasting frameworks. The goal is to assess whether these factors should be considered by end-users to improve forecast quality. We focus on the Greek DAM using data from July 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022. This period is chosen due to significant price volatility in Greece, driven by its dependence on natural gas and limited interconnection capacity with larger European grids. The analysis covers two phases: pre-conflict (January 1, 2022, to February 23, 2022) and post-conflict (February 24, 2022, to March 31, 2022), following the Russian-Ukraine conflict that initiated an energy crisis. We use the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) for evaluation, as well as the Direction of Change (DoC) measure to assess the accuracy of price movement predictions. Our findings suggest that forecasters need to apply all strategies across different horizons and models. Different strategies may be required for different horizons to optimize both accuracy and directional predictions, ensuring more reliable forecasts.

Keywords: short-term electricity price forecast, forecast strategies, forecast horizons, recursive strategy, direct strategy

Procedia PDF Downloads 8

Authors: Qasim Munye, Juned Islam, Haseeb Qureshi, Syed Jung

Abstract:

Lung nodules are commonly identified in computed tomography (CT) scans by experienced radiologists at a relatively late stage. Early diagnosis can greatly increase survival. We propose using a pix2pix conditional generative adversarial network to generate realistic images simulating early-stage lung nodule growth. We have applied deep images prior to 2341 slices from 895 computed tomography (CT) scans from the Lung Image Database Consortium (LIDC) dataset to generate pseudo-healthy medical images. From these images, 819 were chosen to train a pix2pix network. We observed that for most of the images, the pix2pix network was able to generate images where the nodule increased in size and intensity across epochs. To evaluate the images, 400 generated images were chosen at random and shown to a medical student beside their corresponding original image. Of these 400 generated images, 384 were defined as satisfactory - meaning they resembled a nodule and were visually similar to the corresponding image. We believe that this generated dataset could be used as training data for neural networks to detect lung nodules at an early stage or to improve the accuracy of such networks. This is particularly significant as datasets containing the growth of early-stage nodules are scarce. This project shows that the combination of deep image prior and generative models could potentially open the door to creating larger datasets than currently possible and has the potential to increase the accuracy of medical classification tasks.

Keywords: medical technology, artificial intelligence, radiology, lung cancer

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Ahmed El-Banbi, Ahmed El-Maraghi

Abstract:

PVT properties are needed as input data in all reservoir, production, and surface facilities engineering calculations. In the absence of PVT reports on valid reservoir fluid samples, engineers rely on PVT correlations to generate the required PVT data. The accuracy of PVT correlations varies, and no correlation group has been found to provide accurate results for all oil types. The effect of inaccurate PVT data can be significant in engineering calculations and is well documented in the literature. Bubble point pressure can sometimes be obtained from external sources. In this paper, we show how to utilize the known bubble point pressure to improve the accuracy of calculated PVT properties from correlations. We conducted a systematic study using around 250 reservoir oil samples to quantify the effect of pre-knowledge of bubble point pressure. The samples spanned a wide range of oils, from very volatile oils to black oils and all the way to low-GOR oils. A method for shifting both undersaturated and saturated sections of the PVT properties curves to the correct bubble point is explained. Seven PVT correlation families were used in this study. All PVT properties (e.g., solution gas-oil ratio, formation volume factor, density, viscosity, and compressibility) were calculated using the correct bubble point pressure and the correlation estimated bubble point pressure. Comparisons between the calculated PVT properties and actual laboratory-measured values were made. It was found that pre-knowledge of bubble point pressure and using the shifting technique presented in the paper improved the correlation-estimated values by 10% to more than 30%. The most improvement was seen in the solution gas-oil ratio and formation volume factor.

Keywords: PVT data, PVT properties, PVT correlations, bubble point pressure

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Seyhan Karaçavuş, Bülent Yılmaz, Ömer Kayaaltı, Semra İçer, Arzu Taşdemir, Oğuzhan Ayyıldız, Kübra Eset, Eser Kaya

Abstract:

In this study, our goal was to perform tumor staging and subtype determination automatically using different texture analysis approaches for a very common cancer type, i.e., non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC). Especially, we introduced a texture analysis approach, called Law’s texture filter, to be used in this context for the first time. The 18F-FDG PET images of 42 patients with NSCLC were evaluated. The number of patients for each tumor stage, i.e., I-II, III or IV, was 14. The patients had ~45% adenocarcinoma (ADC) and ~55% squamous cell carcinoma (SqCCs). MATLAB technical computing language was employed in the extraction of 51 features by using first order statistics (FOS), gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM), gray-level run-length matrix (GLRLM), and Laws’ texture filters. The feature selection method employed was the sequential forward selection (SFS). Selected textural features were used in the automatic classification by k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) and support vector machines (SVM). In the automatic classification of tumor stage, the accuracy was approximately 59.5% with k-NN classifier (k=3) and 69% with SVM (with one versus one paradigm), using 5 features. In the automatic classification of tumor subtype, the accuracy was around 92.7% with SVM one vs. one. Texture analysis of FDG-PET images might be used, in addition to metabolic parameters as an objective tool to assess tumor histopathological characteristics and in automatic classification of tumor stage and subtype.

Keywords: cancer stage, cancer cell type, non-small cell lung carcinoma, PET, texture analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 326

Authors: Soha A. Bahanshal, Vaibhav Verdhan, Bayong Kim

Abstract:

Graduation rates at six-year colleges are becoming a more essential indicator for incoming fresh students and for university rankings. Predicting student graduation is extremely beneficial to schools and has a huge potential for targeted intervention. It is important for educational institutions since it enables the development of strategic plans that will assist or improve students' performance in achieving their degrees on time (GOT). A first step and a helping hand in extracting useful information from these data and gaining insights into the prediction of students' progress and performance is offered by machine learning techniques. Data analysis and visualization techniques are applied to understand and interpret the data. The data used for the analysis contains students who have graduated in 6 years in the academic year 2017-2018 for science majors. This analysis can be used to predict the graduation of students in the next academic year. Different Predictive modelings such as logistic regression, decision trees, support vector machines, Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, and KNeighborsClassifier are applied to predict whether a student will graduate. These classifiers were evaluated with k folds of 5. The performance of these classifiers was compared based on accuracy measurement. The results indicated that Ensemble Classifier achieves better accuracy, about 91.12%. This GOT prediction model would hopefully be useful to university administration and academics in developing measures for assisting and boosting students' academic performance and ensuring they graduate on time.

Keywords: prediction, decision trees, machine learning, support vector machine, ensemble model, student graduation, GOT graduate on time

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: Toshifumi Hiramatsu, Satoshi Morita, Manuel Pencelli, Marta Niccolini, Matteo Ragaglia, Alfredo Argiolas

Abstract:

Automation technologies for agriculture field are needed to promote labor-saving. One of the most relevant problems in automated agriculture is represented by controlling the robot along a predetermined path in presence of rough terrain or incline ground. Unfortunately, disturbances originating from interaction with the ground, such as slipping, make it quite difficult to achieve the required accuracy. In general, it is required to move within 5-10 cm accuracy with respect to the predetermined path. Moreover, lateral velocity caused by gravity on the incline field also affects slipping. In this paper, a path-tracking controller for tracked mobile robots moving on rough terrains of incline field such as vineyard is presented. The controller is composed of a disturbance observer and an adaptive controller based on the kinematic model of the robot. The disturbance observer measures the difference between the measured and the reference yaw rate and linear velocity in order to estimate slip. Then, the adaptive controller adapts “virtual” parameter of the kinematics model: Instantaneous Centers of Rotation (ICRs). Finally, target angular velocity reference is computed according to the adapted parameter. This solution allows estimating the effects of slip without making the model too complex. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed solution is tested in a simulation environment.

Keywords: the agricultural robot, autonomous control, path-tracking control, tracked mobile robot

Procedia PDF Downloads 172

Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

Abstract:

Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

Procedia PDF Downloads 392

Authors: Davide Gotti, Milan Prodanovic, Sergio Pinilla, David Muñoz-Torrero

Abstract:

Since its proposal, the Doyle-Fuller-Newman (DFN) lithium-ion battery model has gained popularity in the electrochemical field. In fact, this model provides the user with theoretical support for designing the lithium-ion battery parameters, such as the material particle or the diffusion coefficient adjustment direction. However, the model is mathematically complex as it is composed of several partial differential equations (PDEs) such as Fick’s law of diffusion, the MacInnes and Ohm’s equations, among other phenomena. Thus, to efficiently use the model in a time-domain simulation environment, the selection of the discretization technique is of a pivotal importance. There are several numerical methods available in the literature that can be used to carry out this task. In this study, a comparison between the explicit Euler, Crank-Nicolson, and Chebyshev discretization methods is proposed. These three methods are compared in terms of accuracy, stability, and computational times. Firstly, the explicit Euler discretization technique is analyzed. This method is straightforward to implement and is computationally fast. In this work, the accuracy of the method and its stability properties are shown for the electrolyte diffusion partial differential equation. Subsequently, the Crank-Nicolson method is considered. It represents a combination of the implicit and explicit Euler methods that has the advantage of being of the second order in time and is intrinsically stable, thus overcoming the disadvantages of the simpler Euler explicit method. As shown in the full paper, the Crank-Nicolson method provides accurate results when applied to the DFN model. Its stability does not depend on the integration time step, thus it is feasible for both short- and long-term tests. This last remark is particularly important as this discretization technique would allow the user to implement parameter estimation and optimization techniques such as system or genetic parameter identification methods using this model. Finally, the Chebyshev discretization technique is implemented in the DFN model. This discretization method features swift convergence properties and, as other spectral methods used to solve differential equations, achieves the same accuracy with a smaller number of discretization nodes. However, as shown in the literature, these methods are not suitable for handling sharp gradients, which are common during the first instants of the charge and discharge phases of the battery. The numerical results obtained and presented in this study aim to provide the guidelines on how to select the adequate discretization technique for the DFN model according to the type of application to be performed, highlighting the pros and cons of the three methods. Specifically, the non-eligibility of the simple Euler method for longterm tests will be presented. Afterwards, the Crank-Nicolson and the Chebyshev discretization methods will be compared in terms of accuracy and computational times under a wide range of battery operating scenarios. These include both long-term simulations for aging tests, and short- and mid-term battery charge/discharge cycles, typically relevant in battery applications like grid primary frequency and inertia control and electrical vehicle breaking and acceleration.

Keywords: Doyle-Fuller-Newman battery model, partial differential equations, discretization, numerical methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 23

Authors: Peifei Zhu, Zisheng Li, Yasuki Kakishita, Mayumi Suzuki, Tomoaki Chono

Abstract:

Segmentation of left ventricle (LV) from cardiac ultrasound images provides a quantitative functional analysis of the heart to diagnose disease. Active Shape Model (ASM) is a widely used approach for LV segmentation but suffers from the drawback that initialization of the shape model is not sufficiently close to the target, especially when dealing with abnormal shapes in disease. In this work, a two-step framework is proposed to improve the accuracy and speed of the model-based segmentation. Firstly, a robust and efficient detector based on Hough forest is proposed to localize cardiac feature points, and such points are used to predict the initial fitting of the LV shape model. Secondly, to achieve more accurate and detailed segmentation, ASM is applied to further fit the LV shape model to the cardiac ultrasound image. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated on a dataset of 800 cardiac ultrasound images that are mostly of abnormal shapes. The proposed method is compared to several combinations of ASM and existing initialization methods. The experiment results demonstrate that the accuracy of feature point detection for initialization was improved by 40% compared to the existing methods. Moreover, the proposed method significantly reduces the number of necessary ASM fitting loops, thus speeding up the whole segmentation process. Therefore, the proposed method is able to achieve more accurate and efficient segmentation results and is applicable to unusual shapes of heart with cardiac diseases, such as left atrial enlargement.

Keywords: hough forest, active shape model, segmentation, cardiac left ventricle

Procedia PDF Downloads 339

Authors: M. Aghili, S. Tabarestani, C. Freytes, M. Shojaie, M. Cabrerizo, A. Barreto, N. Rishe, R. E. Curiel, D. Loewenstein, R. Duara, M. Adjouadi

Abstract:

A major challenge in medical studies, especially those that are longitudinal, is the problem of missing measurements which hinders the effective application of many machine learning algorithms. Furthermore, recent Alzheimer's Disease studies have focused on the delineation of Early Mild Cognitive Impairment (EMCI) and Late Mild Cognitive Impairment (LMCI) from cognitively normal controls (CN) which is essential for developing effective and early treatment methods. To address the aforementioned challenges, this paper explores the potential of using the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm in handling missing values in multiclass classification. We seek a generalized classification scheme where all prodromal stages of the disease are considered simultaneously in the classification and decision-making processes. Given the large number of subjects (1631) included in this study and in the presence of almost 28% missing values, we investigated the performance of XGBoost on the classification of the four classes of AD, NC, EMCI, and LMCI. Using 10-fold cross validation technique, XGBoost is shown to outperform other state-of-the-art classification algorithms by 3% in terms of accuracy and F-score. Our model achieved an accuracy of 80.52%, a precision of 80.62% and recall of 80.51%, supporting the more natural and promising multiclass classification.

Keywords: eXtreme gradient boosting, missing data, Alzheimer disease, early mild cognitive impairment, late mild cognitive impair, multiclass classification, ADNI, support vector machine, random forest

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Areej Salaymeh, Loren Schwiebert, Stephen Remias, Jonathan Waddell

Abstract:

Extracting information from new data sources has emerged as a crucial task in many traffic planning processes, such as identifying traffic patterns, route planning, traffic forecasting, and locating infrastructure improvements. Given the advanced technologies used to collect Global Positioning System (GPS) data from dedicated GPS devices, GPS equipped phones, and navigation tools, intelligent data analysis methodologies are necessary to mine this raw data. In this research, an automatic detection framework is proposed to help identify and classify the locations of stopped GPS waypoints into two main categories: signalized intersections or highway congestion. The Delaunay triangulation is used to perform this assessment in the clustering phase. While most of the existing clustering algorithms need assumptions about the data distribution, the effectiveness of the Delaunay triangulation relies on triangulating geographical data points without such assumptions. Our proposed method starts by cleaning noise from the data and normalizing it. Next, the framework will identify stoppage points by calculating the traveled distance. The last step is to use clustering to form groups of waypoints for signalized traffic and highway congestion. Next, a binary classifier was applied to find distinguish highway congestion from signalized stop points. The binary classifier uses the length of the cluster to find congestion. The proposed framework shows high accuracy for identifying the stop positions and congestion points in around 99.2% of trials. We show that it is possible, using limited GPS data, to distinguish with high accuracy.

Keywords: Delaunay triangulation, clustering, intelligent transportation systems, GPS data

Procedia PDF Downloads 275

Authors: Christina Kirsch, Adam Hatzigiannis

Abstract:

Rail operators and maintainers worldwide are increasingly replacing walking patrols in the rail corridor with mechanized track patrols -essentially data capture on trains- and on-screen reviews of track infrastructure in centralized review facilities. The benefit is that infrastructure workers are less exposed to the dangers of the rail corridor. The impact is a significant change in work design from walking track sections and direct observation in the real world to sedentary jobs in the review facility reviewing captured data on screens. Defects in rail infrastructure can have catastrophic consequences. Reviewer performance regarding accuracy and efficiency of reviews within the available time frame is essential to ensure safety and operational performance. Rail operators must optimize workload and resource loading to transition to on-screen reviews successfully. Therefore, they need to know what workload assessment methodologies will provide reliable and valid data to optimize resourcing for on-screen reviews. This paper compares objective workload measures, including track difficulty ratings and review distance covered per hour, and subjective workload assessments (NASA TLX) and analyses the link between workload and reviewer performance, including sensitivity, precision, and overall accuracy. An experimental study was completed with eight on-screen reviewers, including infrastructure workers and engineers, reviewing track sections with different levels of track difficulty over nine days. Each day the reviewers completed four 90-minute sessions of on-screen inspection of the track infrastructure. Data regarding the speed of review (km/ hour), detected defects, false negatives, and false positives were collected. Additionally, all reviewers completed a subjective workload assessment (NASA TLX) after each 90-minute session and a short employee engagement survey at the end of the study period that captured impacts on job satisfaction and motivation. The results showed that objective measures for tracking difficulty align with subjective mental demand, temporal demand, effort, and frustration in the NASA TLX. Interestingly, review speed correlated with subjective assessments of physical and temporal demand, but to mental demand. Subjective performance ratings correlated with all accuracy measures and review speed. The results showed that subjective NASA TLX workload assessments accurately reflect objective workload. The analysis of the impact of workload on performance showed that subjective mental demand correlated with high precision -accurately detected defects, not false positives. Conversely, high temporal demand was negatively correlated with sensitivity and the percentage of detected existing defects. Review speed was significantly correlated with false negatives. With an increase in review speed, accuracy declined. On the other hand, review speed correlated with subjective performance assessments. Reviewers thought their performance was higher when they reviewed the track sections faster, despite the decline in accuracy. The study results were used to optimize resourcing and ensure that reviewers had enough time to review the allocated track sections to improve defect detection rates in accordance with the efficiency-thoroughness trade-off. Overall, the study showed the importance of a multi-method approach to workload assessment and optimization, combining subjective workload assessments with objective workload and performance measures to ensure that recommendations for work system optimization are evidence-based and reliable.

Keywords: automation, efficiency-thoroughness trade-off, human factors, job design, NASA TLX, performance optimization, subjective workload assessment, workload analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Helene Thieblemont, Fariborz Haghighat

Abstract:

Energy storage systems play a crucial role in decreasing building energy consumption during peak periods and expand the use of renewable energies in buildings. To provide a high building thermal performance, the energy storage system has to be properly controlled to insure a good energy performance while maintaining a satisfactory thermal comfort for building’s occupant. In the case of passive discharge storages, defining in advance the required amount of energy is required to avoid overheating in the building. Consequently, anticipatory supervisory control strategies have been developed forecasting future energy demand and production to coordinate systems. Anticipatory supervisory control strategies are based on some predictions, mainly of the weather forecast. However, if the forecasted hourly outdoor temperature may be found online with a high accuracy, solar radiations predictions are most of the time not available online. To estimate them, this paper proposes an advanced approach based on the forecast of weather conditions. Several methods to correlate hourly weather conditions forecast to real hourly solar radiations are compared. Results show that using weather conditions forecast allows estimating with an acceptable accuracy solar radiations of the next day. Moreover, this technique allows obtaining hourly data that may be used for building models. As a result, this solar radiation prediction model may help to implement model-based controller as Model Predictive Control.

Keywords: anticipatory control, model predictive control, solar radiation forecast, thermal storage

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: Kshitij Ansingkar, Yohei Hoshino, Liangliang Yang

Abstract:

Advances in algorithms related to autonomous systems have made it possible to research on improving the accuracy of a train’s location. This has the capability of increasing the throughput of a railway network without the need for the creation of additional infrastructure. To develop such a system, the railway industry requires data to test sensor fusion theories or implement simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) algorithms. Though such simulation data and ground truth datasets are available for testing automation algorithms of vehicles, however, due to regulations and economic considerations, there is a dearth of such datasets in the railway industry. Thus, there is a need for the creation of a simulation environment that can generate realistic synthetic datasets. This paper proposes (1) to leverage the capabilities of open-source 3D graphic rendering software to create a visualization of the environment. (2) to utilize open-source 3D geospatial data for accurate visualization and (3) to integrate the graphic rendering software with a programming language and numerical computing platform. To develop such an integrated platform, this paper utilizes the computing platform’s advanced sensor models like LIDAR, camera, IMU or GPS and merges it with the 3D rendering of the game engine to generate high-quality synthetic data. Further, these datasets can be used to train Railway models and improve the accuracy of a train’s location.

Keywords: 3D game engine, 3D geospatial data, dataset generation, railway simulator, sensor fusion, SLAM

Procedia PDF Downloads 4

Authors: A. Taheri Tizro, Rojin Fasihi

Abstract:

Geoelectrical method is one of the most effective tools in determining subsurface lithological layers. The electromagnetic method is also a newer method that can play an important role in determining and separating subsurface layers with acceptable accuracy. In the present research, 10 electromagnetic soundings were collected in the upstream of 5 karstic springs of Famaseb, Faresban, Ghale Baroodab, Gian and Gonbad kabood in Nahavand plain of Hamadan province. By using the emerging data, the belectromagnetic logs were prepared at different depths and compared with 5 logs of the geoelectric method. The comparison showed that the value of NRMSE in the geoelectric method for the 5 springs of Famaseb, Faresban, Ghale Baroodab, Gian and Gonbad kabood were 7.11, 7.50, respectively. It is 44.93, 3.99, and 2.99, and in the electromagnetic method, the value of this coefficient for the investigated springs is about 1.4, 1.1, 1.2, 1.5, and 1.3, respectively. In addition to the similarity of the results of the two methods, it is found that, the accuracy of the electromagnetic method based on the NRMSE value is higher than the geoelectric method. The advantage of the electromagnetic method compared to geoelectric is on less time consuming and its cost prohibitive. The depth to water table is the final result of this research work , which showed that in the springs of Famaseb, Faresban, Ghale Baroodab, Gian and Gonbad kabood, having depth of about 6, 20, 10, 2 36 meters respectively. The maximum thickness of the aquifer layer was estimated in Gonbad kabood spring (36 meters) and the lowest in Gian spring (2 meters). These results can be used to identify the water potential of the region in order to better manage water resources.

Keywords: karst spring, geoelectric, aquifer layers, nahavand

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Sara A. Ben Lashihar

Abstract:

The heritage building information modelling (HBIM) of the historical masonry buildings has expanded lately to meet the urgent needs for conservation and structural analysis. The masonry structures are unique features for ancient building architectures worldwide that have special cultural, spiritual, and historical significance. However, there is a research gap regarding the reliability of the HBIM modeling process of these structures. The HBIM modeling process of the masonry structures faces significant challenges due to the inherent complexity and uniqueness of their structural systems. Most of these processes are based on tracing the point clouds and rarely follow documents, archival records, or direct observation. The results of these techniques are highly abstracted models where the accuracy does not exceed LOD 200. The masonry assemblages, especially curved elements such as arches, vaults, and domes, are generally modeled with standard BIM components or in-place models, and the brick textures are graphically input. Hence, future investigation is necessary to establish a methodology to generate automatically parametric masonry components. These components are developed algorithmically according to mathematical and geometric accuracy and the validity of the survey data. The main aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive review of the state of the art of the existing researches and papers that have been conducted on the HBIM modeling of the masonry structural elements and the latest approaches to achieve parametric models that have both the visual fidelity and high geometric accuracy. The paper reviewed more than 800 articles, proceedings papers, and book chapters focused on "HBIM and Masonry" keywords from 2017 to 2021. The studies were downloaded from well-known, trusted bibliographic databases such as Web of Science, Scopus, Dimensions, and Lens. As a starting point, a scientometric analysis was carried out using VOSViewer software. This software extracts the main keywords in these studies to retrieve the relevant works. It also calculates the strength of the relationships between these keywords. Subsequently, an in-depth qualitative review followed the studies with the highest frequency of occurrence and the strongest links with the topic, according to the VOSViewer's results. The qualitative review focused on the latest approaches and the future suggestions proposed in these researches. The findings of this paper can serve as a valuable reference for researchers, and BIM specialists, to make more accurate and reliable HBIM models for historic masonry buildings.

Keywords: HBIM, masonry, structure, modeling, automatic, approach, parametric

Procedia PDF Downloads 165

Authors: Dina Ahmed Selim, Eman Shawky Anwar, Rasha Mohamed Abu El-Khair

Abstract:

A rapid, simple and efficient method with minimal sample treatment was developed for authentication of Garcinia cambogia fruit peel powder, along with determining undeclared active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) in its herbal slimming dietary supplements using near infrared spectroscopy combined with chemometrics. Five featured adulterants, including sibutramine, metformin, orlistat, ephedrine, and theophylline are selected as target compounds. The Near infrared spectral data matrix of authentic Garcinia cambogia fruit peel and specimens degraded by intentional contamination with the five selected APIs was subjected to hierarchical clustering analysis to investigate their bundling figure. SIMCA models were established to ensure the genuiness of Garcinia cambogia fruit peel which resulted in perfect classification of all tested specimens. Adulterated samples were utilized for construction of PLSR models based on different APIs contents at minute levels of fraud practices (LOQ < 0.2% w/w).The suggested approach can be applied to enhance and guarantee the safety and quality of Garcinia fruit peel powder as raw material and in dietary supplements.

Keywords: Garcinia cambogia, Quality control, NIR spectroscopy, Chemometrics

Procedia PDF Downloads 77

Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

Abstract:

Surrogate model has received increasing attention for use in detecting damage of structures based on vibration modal parameters. However, uncertainties existing in the measured vibration data may lead to false or unreliable output result from such model. In this study, an efficient approach based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to take into account the effect of uncertainties in developing a surrogate model. The probability of damage existence (PDE) is calculated based on the probability density function of the existence of undamaged and damaged states. The kriging technique allows one to genuinely quantify the surrogate error, therefore it is chosen as metamodeling technique. Enhanced version of ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) algorithm is used as main algorithm for model updating. The developed approach is applied to detect simulated damage in numerical models of 72-bar space truss and 120-bar dome truss. The simulation results show the proposed method can perform well in probability-based damage detection of structures with less computational effort compared to direct finite element model.

Keywords: probability-based damage detection (PBDD), Kriging, surrogate modeling, uncertainty quantification, artificial intelligence, enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 239

Authors: J. Zekri, N. Souilah, W. Abdelaziz, D. Alatou

Abstract:

Our study shall focus on the ability of trees cork oak that showed vis-à-vis sensitivity to climate change, including late spring frosts. The combination of these factors resulted in damage alarmed, therefore forest ecosystems weakened trees that can affect their ability to support other abiotic and biotic stresses, For this we tested its tolerance to thermal variations and cold weather conditions by estimating some stress markers (quantification of proteins, RNA, soluble sugars) that are quantified to evaluate the cold tolerance of seedlings. Sowing of cork oak (Quercus suber L.) is grown in controlled conditions at 25° C ± 2° C in long days 16h. These seedlings are transferred at low temperatures between 5° C and -6° C for a period of 3 hours. Biochemical analyzes were performed in the various organs of the cork oak seedlings. Cool temperatures induced a significant accumulation of proline in different organs of seedlings and the optimum concentrations were observed in the roots with very high concentrations (4 times larger than those of the control). The accumulation of soluble sugars is significantly in stems and roots at 0° C. Protein concentrations are very high in leaves of both growth and high waves in rod at -4° C to -2° C. Tolerance cork oak seems to be at the thermal limit of -2°C. The concentration of these metabolites in the various organs showed the ability oak cork hardening during the winter.

Keywords: climate change, thermal change, semi-aride, biochemical markers, heat stress

Procedia PDF Downloads 249

Authors: Mehrnoosh Omati, Mahmod Reza Sahebi

Abstract:

The information on land use/land cover changing plays an essential role for environmental assessment, planning and management in regional development. Remotely sensed imagery is widely used for providing information in many change detection applications. Polarimetric Synthetic aperture radar (PolSAR) image, with the discrimination capability between different scattering mechanisms, is a powerful tool for environmental monitoring applications. This paper proposes a new boundary-based segmentation algorithm as a fundamental step for land cover change detection. In this method, first, two PolSAR images are segmented using integration of marker-controlled watershed algorithm and coupled Markov random field (MRF). Then, object-based classification is performed to determine changed/no changed image objects. Compared with pixel-based support vector machine (SVM) classifier, this novel segmentation algorithm significantly reduces the speckle effect in PolSAR images and improves the accuracy of binary classification in object-based level. The experimental results on Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) polarimetric images show a 3% and 6% improvement in overall accuracy and kappa coefficient, respectively. Also, the proposed method can correctly distinguish homogeneous image parcels.

Keywords: coupled Markov random field (MRF), environment, object-based analysis, polarimetric SAR (PolSAR) images

Procedia PDF Downloads 218

Authors: Ahmed ElAzab, Amira M. Idrees, Mahmoud A. Mahmoud, Hesham Hefny

Abstract:

Social networking sites such as Twitter and Facebook attracts over 500 million users across the world, for those users, their social life, even their practical life, has become interrelated. Their interaction with social networking has affected their life forever. Accordingly, social networking sites have become among the main channels that are responsible for vast dissemination of different kinds of information during real time events. This popularity in Social networking has led to different problems including the possibility of exposing incorrect information to their users through fake accounts which results to the spread of malicious content during life events. This situation can result to a huge damage in the real world to the society in general including citizens, business entities, and others. In this paper, we present a classification method for detecting fake accounts on Twitter. The study determines the minimized set of the main factors that influence the detection of the fake accounts on Twitter, then the determined factors have been applied using different classification techniques, a comparison of the results for these techniques has been performed and the most accurate algorithm is selected according to the accuracy of the results. The study has been compared with different recent research in the same area, this comparison has proved the accuracy of the proposed study. We claim that this study can be continuously applied on Twitter social network to automatically detect the fake accounts, moreover, the study can be applied on different Social network sites such as Facebook with minor changes according to the nature of the social network which are discussed in this paper.

Keywords: fake accounts detection, classification algorithms, twitter accounts analysis, features based techniques

Procedia PDF Downloads 416

Authors: Pongsakorn Komutpol, Pravej Serichetaphongse, Soontra Panmekiate, Atiphan Pimkhaokham

Abstract:

Statement of Problem: The important parameter of esthetic assessment in anterior maxillary implant include pink esthetic of gingiva and white esthetic of restoration. While the 3 dimensional (3D) implant position are recently concerned as a key for succeeding in implant treatment. However, to our knowledge, the authors did not come across any publication that demonstrated the relations of esthetic outcome and 3D implant position. Objectives: To investigate the correlation between positional accuracy of single-tooth implant restoration (STIR) in all 3 dimensions and their esthetic outcomes. Materials and Methods: 17 patients’ data who had a STIR at central incisor with pristine contralateral tooth were included in this study. Intraoral photographs, dental models, and cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) images were retrieved. The esthetic outcome was assessed in accordance with pink esthetic score and white esthetic score (PES/WES). While the number of correct position in each dimension (mesiodistal, labiolingual, apicocoronal) of the implant were evaluated and defined as 'right' or 'wrong' according to ITI consensus conference by one investigator using CBCT data. The different mean score between right and wrong position in all dimensions was analyzed by Mann-Whitney U test with 0.05 was the significant level of the study. Results: The average score of PES/WES was 15.88 ± 1.65 which was considered as clinically acceptable. The average PES/WES score in 1, 2 and 3 right dimension of the implant position were 16.71, 15.75 and 15.17 respectively. None of the implants placed wrongly in all three dimensions. Statistically significant difference of the PES/WES score was found between the implants that placed right in 3 dimensions and 1 dimension (p = 0.041). Conclusion: This study supported the principle of 3D position of implant. The more properly implant was placed, the higher esthetic outcome was found.

Keywords: accuracy, dental implant, esthetic, 3D implant position

Procedia PDF Downloads 179

Authors: Yen Chia-Ju, Cheng Ding-Ruei

Abstract:

This study took case office building as subject and explored the responsive work order repair request of facilities and equipment in offices and public areas by gray theory, with the purpose of providing for future related office building owners, executive managers, property management companies, mechanical and electrical companies as reference for deciding and assessing forecast model. Important conclusions of this study are summarized as follows according to the study findings: 1. Grey Relational Analysis discusses the importance of facilities repair number of six categories, namely, power systems, building systems, water systems, air conditioning systems, fire systems and manpower dispatch in order. In terms of facilities maintenance importance are power systems, building systems, water systems, air conditioning systems, manpower dispatch and fire systems in order. 2. GM (1,N) and regression method took maintenance hours as dependent variables and repair number, leased area and tenants number as independent variables and conducted single month forecast based on 12 data from January to December 2011. The mean absolute error and average accuracy of GM (1,N) from verification results were 6.41% and 93.59%; the mean absolute error and average accuracy of regression model were 4.66% and 95.34%, indicating that they have highly accurate forecast capability.

Keywords: rey theory, forecast model, Taipei 101, office buildings, property management, facilities, equipment

Procedia PDF Downloads 444

Authors: Maria Nejjari, Michel Cloutier, Guylaine Talbot, Martin Lanthier

Abstract:

The fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) is a staining technique that allows the identification, detection and quantification of microorganisms without prior cultivation by means of epifluorescence and confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM). Oligonucleotide probes have been used to detect bacteria and archaea that colonize the cattle and swine digestive systems. These bacterial strains have been obtained from fecal samples issued from cattle manure and swine slurry. The collection of these samples has been done at 3 different pit’s levels A, B and C with same height. Two collection depth levels have been taken in consideration, one collection level just under the pit’s surface and the second one at the bottom of the pit. Cells were fixed and FISH was performed using oligonucleotides of 15 to 25 nucleotides of length associated with a fluorescent molecule Cy3 or Cy5. The double hybridization using Cy3 probe targeting bacteria (Cy3-EUB338-I) along with a Cy5 probe targeting Archaea (Gy5-ARCH915) gave a better signal. The CLSM images show that there are more bacteria than archaea in swine slurry. However, the choice of fluorescent probes is critical for getting the double hybridization and a unique signature for each microorganism. FISH technique is an easy way to detect pathogens like E. coli O157, Listeria, Salmonella that easily contaminate water streams, agricultural soils and, consequently, food products and endanger human health.

Keywords: archaea, bacteria, detection, FISH, fluorescence

Procedia PDF Downloads 388

Authors: B. S. Fatoyinbo, D. Stretch, O. T. Amoo, D. Allopi

Abstract:

This study extends the use of the Drainage Area Regionalization (DAR) method in generating synthetic data and calibrating PyTOPKAPI stream yield for an ungauged basin at a daily time scale. The generation of runoff in determining a river yield has been subjected to various topographic and spatial meteorological variables, which integers form the Catchment Characteristics Model (CCM). Many of the conventional CCM models adapted in Africa have been challenged with a paucity of adequate, relevance and accurate data to parameterize and validate the potential. The purpose of generating synthetic flow is to test a hydrological model, which will not suffer from the impact of very low flows or very high flows, thus allowing to check whether the model is structurally sound enough or not. The employed physically-based, watershed-scale hydrologic model (PyTOPKAPI) was parameterized with GIS-pre-processing parameters and remote sensing hydro-meteorological variables. The validation with mean annual runoff ratio proposes a decent graphical understanding between observed and the simulated discharge. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination (R²) values of 0.704 and 0.739 proves strong model efficiency. Given the current climate variability impact, water planner can now assert a tool for flow quantification and sustainable planning purposes.

Keywords: catchment characteristics model, GIS, synthetic data, ungauged basin

Procedia PDF Downloads 327