Search results for: forecasting accuracy

Authors: E. Tandis, E. Assareh

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Designing the optimal shape of MW wind turbine blades is provided in a number of cases through evolutionary algorithms associated with mathematical modeling (Blade Element Momentum Theory). Evolutionary algorithms, among the optimization methods, enjoy many advantages, particularly in stability. However, they usually need a large number of function evaluations. Since there are a large number of local extremes, the optimization method has to find the global extreme accurately. The present paper introduces a new population-based hybrid algorithm called Genetic-Based Bees Algorithm (GBBA). This algorithm is meant to design the optimal shape for MW wind turbine blades. The current method employs crossover and neighborhood searching operators taken from the respective Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Bees Algorithm (BA) to provide a method with good performance in accuracy and speed convergence. Different blade designs, twenty-one to be exact, were considered based on the chord length, twist angle and tip speed ratio using GA results. They were compared with BA and GBBA optimum design results targeting the power coefficient and solidity. The results suggest that the final shape, obtained by the proposed hybrid algorithm, performs better compared to either BA or GA. Furthermore, the accuracy and speed convergence increases when the GBBA is employed

Keywords: Blade Design, Optimization, Genetic Algorithm, Bees Algorithm, Genetic-Based Bees Algorithm, Large Wind Turbine

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Authors: Monisha Edirisooriya, Wilma Jack, Dominique Twelves, Jennifer Royds, Fiona Scott, Nicola Mason, Arran Turnbull, J. Michael Dixon

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Introduction: Excision biopsy has been the investigation of choice for patients presenting with pathological axillary lymphadenopathy without a breast abnormality. Core biopsy of nodes can provide sufficient tissue for diagnosis and has advantages in terms of morbidity and speed of diagnosis. This study evaluates the diagnostic accuracy of core biopsy in patients presenting with axillary lymphadenopathy. Methods: Between 2009 and 2019, 165 patients referred to the Edinburgh Breast Unit had a total of 179 axillary lymph node core biopsies. Results: 152 (92%) of the 165 initial core biopsies were deemed to contain adequate nodal tissue. Core biopsy correctly established malignancy in 75 of the 78 patients with haematological malignancy (96%) and in all 28 patients with metastatic carcinoma (100%) and correctly diagnosed benign changes in 49 of 57 (86%) patients with benign conditions. There were no false positives and no false negatives. In 67 (85.9%) of the 78 patients with hematological malignancy, there was sufficient material in the first core biopsy to allow the pathologist to make an actionable diagnosis and not ask for more tissue sampling prior to treatment. There were no complications of core biopsy. On follow up, none of the patients with benign cores has been shown to have malignancy in the axilla and none with lymphoma had their initial disease incorrectly classified. Conclusions: This study shows that core biopsy is now the investigation of choice for patients presenting with axillary lymphadenopathy even in those suspected as having lymphoma.

Keywords: core biopsy, excision biopsy, axillary lymphadenopathy, non-breast malignancy

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Authors: M. Pienaar, J. W. Odendaal, J. C. Smit, J. Joubert

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Simulations are commonly used to predict the bistatic radar cross section (RCS) of military targets since characterization measurements can be expensive and time consuming. It is thus important to accurately predict the bistatic RCS of targets. Computational electromagnetic (CEM) methods can be used for bistatic RCS prediction. CEM methods are divided into full-wave and asymptotic methods. Full-wave methods are numerical approximations to the exact solution of Maxwell’s equations. These methods are very accurate but are computationally very intensive and time consuming. Asymptotic techniques make simplifying assumptions in solving Maxwell's equations and are thus less accurate but require less computational resources and time. Asymptotic techniques can thus be very valuable for the prediction of bistatic RCS of electrically large targets, due to the decreased computational requirements. This study extends previous work by validating the accuracy of asymptotic techniques to predict bistatic RCS through comparison with full-wave simulations as well as measurements. Validation is done with canonical structures as well as complex realistic aircraft models instead of only looking at a complex slicy structure. The slicy structure is a combination of canonical structures, including cylinders, corner reflectors and cubes. Validation is done over large bistatic angles and at different polarizations. Bistatic RCS measurements were conducted in a compact range, at the University of Pretoria, South Africa. The measurements were performed at different polarizations from 2 GHz to 6 GHz. Fixed bistatic angles of β = 30.8°, 45° and 90° were used. The measurements were calibrated with an active calibration target. The EM simulation tool FEKO was used to generate simulated results. The full-wave multi-level fast multipole method (MLFMM) simulated results together with the measured data were used as reference for validation. The accuracy of physical optics (PO) and geometrical optics (GO) was investigated. Differences relating to amplitude, lobing structure and null positions were observed between the asymptotic, full-wave and measured data. PO and GO were more accurate at angles close to the specular scattering directions and the accuracy seemed to decrease as the bistatic angle increased. At large bistatic angles PO did not perform well due to the shadow regions not being treated appropriately. PO also did not perform well for canonical structures where multi-bounce was the main scattering mechanism. PO and GO do not account for diffraction but these inaccuracies tended to decrease as the electrical size of objects increased. It was evident that both asymptotic techniques do not properly account for bistatic structural shadowing. Specular scattering was calculated accurately even if targets did not meet the electrically large criteria. It was evident that the bistatic RCS prediction performance of PO and GO depends on incident angle, frequency, target shape and observation angle. The improved computational efficiency of the asymptotic solvers yields a major advantage over full-wave solvers and measurements; however, there is still much room for improvement of the accuracy of these asymptotic techniques.

Keywords: asymptotic techniques, bistatic RCS, geometrical optics, physical optics

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Authors: Marziyeh Khavari

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In recent decades, climate change, global warming, and the growing population worldwide face some challenges, such as increasing food consumption and shortage of resources. Assessing how climate change could disturb crops, especially hazelnut production, seems crucial for sustainable agriculture production. For hazelnut cultivation in the mid-warm condition, such as in Iran, here we present an investigation of climate parameters and how much they are effective on fertility and nut production of hazelnut trees. Therefore, the climate change of the northern zones in Iran has investigated (1960-2017) and was reached an uptrend in temperature. Furthermore, the descriptive analysis performed on six cultivars during seven years shows how this small-scale survey could demonstrate the effects of climate change on hazelnut production and stability. Results showed that some climate parameters are more significant on nut production, such as solar radiation, soil temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation. Moreover, some cultivars have produced more stable production, for instance, Negret and Segorbe, while the Mervill de Boliver recorded the most variation during the study. Another aspect that needs to be met is training and predicting an actual model to simulate nut production through a neural network and linear regression simulation. The study developed and estimated the ANN model's generalization capability with different criteria such as RMSE, SSE, and accuracy factors for dependent and independent variables (environmental and yield traits). The models were trained and tested while the accuracy of the model is proper to predict hazelnut production under fluctuations in weather parameters.

Keywords: climate change, neural network, hazelnut, global warming

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Authors: Dasom Kim, Chen Liu, Myungsu Lim, Su-Hyeon Jeon, ByeoungKug Jeon, Kee-Young Kwahk, Namgyu Kim

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Recently, numerous documents including unstructured data and text have been created due to the rapid increase in the usage of social media and the Internet. Each document is usually provided with a specific category for the convenience of the users. In the past, the categorization was performed manually. However, in the case of manual categorization, not only can the accuracy of the categorization be not guaranteed but the categorization also requires a large amount of time and huge costs. Many studies have been conducted towards the automatic creation of categories to solve the limitations of manual categorization. Unfortunately, most of these methods cannot be applied to categorizing complex documents with multiple topics because the methods work by assuming that one document can be categorized into one category only. In order to overcome this limitation, some studies have attempted to categorize each document into multiple categories. However, they are also limited in that their learning process involves training using a multi-categorized document set. These methods therefore cannot be applied to multi-categorization of most documents unless multi-categorized training sets are provided. To overcome the limitation of the requirement of a multi-categorized training set by traditional multi-categorization algorithms, we previously proposed a new methodology that can extend a category of a single-categorized document to multiple categorizes by analyzing relationships among categories, topics, and documents. In this paper, we design a survey-based verification scenario for estimating the accuracy of our automatic categorization methodology.

Keywords: big data analysis, document classification, multi-category, text mining, topic analysis

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Authors: Aurelia Samuel

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Socio-economic modelling approaches linked to water management have contributed to impact assessments of agricultural policies and management practices on water quality at catchment level. With an increasing interest in informing water management policy that considers complex links between socioeconomic factors, climate change, agricultural production, and water quality, several models have been developed and applied in the literature to capture these relationships. This paper offers an overview of socio-economic approaches that have been incorporated within an integrated framework. It also highlights how data gaps on socio-economic factors have been addressed using forecasting techniques. Findings of the review show that while integrated frameworks have the potential to account for complexities within dynamic systems, they generally do not provide direct, measurable financial impact of socio-economic factors on biophysical water parameters that affect water quality. The paper concludes with a recommendation that modelling framework is kept simple to make it more transparent and easier to capture the most important relationship.

Keywords: financial impact, integrated framework, socio-economic modelling, water quality

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Authors: Luther Ollier, Sylvie Thiria, Anastase Charantonis, Carlos E. Mejia, Michel Crépon

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Sea Surface Height Anomaly (SLA) is a signature of the sub-mesoscale dynamics of the upper ocean. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is driven by these dynamics and can be used to improve the spatial interpolation of SLA fields. In this study, we focused on the temporal evolution of SLA fields. We explored the capacity of deep learning (DL) methods to predict short-term SLA fields using SST fields. We used simulated daily SLA and SST data from the Mercator Global Analysis and Forecasting System, with a resolution of (1/12)◦ in the North Atlantic Ocean (26.5-44.42◦N, -64.25–41.83◦E), covering the period from 1993 to 2019. Using a slightly modified image-to-image convolutional DL architecture, we demonstrated that SST is a relevant variable for controlling the SLA prediction. With a learning process inspired by the teaching-forcing method, we managed to improve the SLA forecast at five days by using the SST fields as additional information. We obtained predictions of a 12 cm (20 cm) error of SLA evolution for scales smaller than mesoscales and at time scales of 5 days (20 days), respectively. Moreover, the information provided by the SST allows us to limit the SLA error to 16 cm at 20 days when learning the trajectory.

Keywords: deep-learning, altimetry, sea surface temperature, forecast

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Authors: Timothy J. Considine, Edward J. M. Manderson

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This paper develops an econometric forecasting system of energy demand coupled with engineering-economic models of energy supply. The framework is used to quantify the impact of state-level renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) achieved predominately with solar generation on electricity rates, electricity consumption, and environmental quality. We perform the analysis using Arizona’s RPS as a case study. We forecast energy demand in Arizona out to 2035, and find by this time the state will require an additional 35 million MWh of electricity generation. If Arizona implements its RPS when supplying this electricity demand, we find there will be a substantial increase in electricity rates (relative to a business-as-usual scenario of reliance on gas-fired generation). Extending the current regime of tax credits can greatly reduce this increase, at the taxpayers’ expense. We find that by 2025 Arizona’s RPS will implicitly abate carbon dioxide emissions at a cost between $101 and $135 per metric ton, and by 2035 abatement costs are between $64 and $112 per metric ton (depending on the future evolution of nature gas prices).

Keywords: electricity demand, renewable portfolio standard, solar, carbon dioxide

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Authors: L. Yu, W. K. Li, S. K. Ong, A. Y. C. Nee

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In this paper, a scalable augmented reality framework for handheld devices is presented. The presented framework is enabled by using a server-client data communication structure, in which the search for tracking targets among a database of images is performed on the server-side while pixel-wise 3D tracking is performed on the client-side, which, in this case, is a handheld mobile device. Image search on the server-side adopts a residual-enhanced image descriptors representation that gives the framework a scalability property. The tracking algorithm on the client-side is based on a gravity-aligned feature descriptor which takes the advantage of a sensor-equipped mobile device and an optimized intensity-based image alignment approach that ensures the accuracy of 3D tracking. Automatic content streaming is achieved by using a key-frame selection algorithm, client working phase monitoring and standardized rules for content communication between the server and client. The recognition accuracy test performed on a standard dataset shows that the method adopted in the presented framework outperforms the Bag-of-Words (BoW) method that has been used in some of the previous systems. Experimental test conducted on a set of video sequences indicated the real-time performance of the tracking system with a frame rate at 15-30 frames per second. The presented framework is exposed to be functional in practical situations with a demonstration application on a campus walk-around.

Keywords: augmented reality framework, server-client model, vision-based tracking, image search

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Authors: Jack R. McKenzie, Peter A. Appleby, Thomas House, Neil Walton

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Cold-start is a notoriously difficult problem which can occur in recommendation systems, and arises when there is insufficient information to draw inferences for users or items. To address this challenge, a contextual bandit algorithm – the Fast Approximate Bayesian Contextual Cold Start Learning algorithm (FAB-COST) – is proposed, which is designed to provide improved accuracy compared to the traditionally used Laplace approximation in the logistic contextual bandit, while controlling both algorithmic complexity and computational cost. To this end, FAB-COST uses a combination of two moment projection variational methods: Expectation Propagation (EP), which performs well at the cold start, but becomes slow as the amount of data increases; and Assumed Density Filtering (ADF), which has slower growth of computational cost with data size but requires more data to obtain an acceptable level of accuracy. By switching from EP to ADF when the dataset becomes large, it is able to exploit their complementary strengths. The empirical justification for FAB-COST is presented, and systematically compared to other approaches on simulated data. In a benchmark against the Laplace approximation on real data consisting of over 670, 000 impressions from autotrader.co.uk, FAB-COST demonstrates at one point increase of over 16% in user clicks. On the basis of these results, it is argued that FAB-COST is likely to be an attractive approach to cold-start recommendation systems in a variety of contexts.

Keywords: cold-start learning, expectation propagation, multi-armed bandits, Thompson Sampling, variational inference

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Authors: Nor Zila Abd Hamid, Mohd Salmi M. Noorani

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This study is focused on the development of prediction models of the Ozone concentration time series. Prediction model is built based on chaotic approach. Firstly, the chaotic nature of the time series is detected by means of phase space plot and the Cao method. Then, the prediction model is built and the local linear approximation method is used for the forecasting purposes. Traditional prediction of autoregressive linear model is also built. Moreover, an improvement in local linear approximation method is also performed. Prediction models are applied to the hourly ozone time series observed at the benchmark station in Malaysia. Comparison of all models through the calculation of mean absolute error, root mean squared error and correlation coefficient shows that the one with improved prediction method is the best. Thus, chaotic approach is a good approach to be used to develop a prediction model for the Ozone concentration time series.

Keywords: chaotic approach, phase space, Cao method, local linear approximation method

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Authors: Sunghae Jun

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Technology management (TM) is important issue in a company improving the competitiveness. Among many activities of TM, technology analysis (TA) is important factor, because most decisions for management of technology are decided by the results of TA. TA is to analyze the developed results of target technology using statistics or Delphi. TA based on Delphi is depended on the experts’ domain knowledge, in comparison, TA by statistics and machine learning algorithms use objective data such as patent or paper instead of the experts’ knowledge. Many quantitative TA methods based on statistics and machine learning have been studied, and these have been used for technology forecasting, technological innovation, and management of technology. They applied diverse computing tools and many analytical methods case by case. It is not easy to select the suitable software and statistical method for given TA work. So, in this paper, we propose a methodology for quantitative TA using statistical computing software called R and data science to construct a general framework of TA. From the result of case study, we also show how our methodology is applied to real field. This research contributes to R&D planning and technology valuation in TM areas.

Keywords: technology management, R system, R data science, statistics, machine learning

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Authors: Rezvan Ravanfar Haghighi, S. Chatterjee, Pratik Kumar, V. C. Vani, Priya Jagia, Sanjiv Sharma, Susama Rani Mandal, R. Lakshmy

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The dual energy computed tomography (DECT) aims at noting the HU(V) values for the sample at two different voltages V=V1, V2 and thus obtain the electron densities (ρe) and effective atomic number (Zeff) of the substance. In the present paper, we aim to obtain a numerical algorithm by which (ρe, Zeff) can be obtained from the HU(100) and HU(140) data, where V=100, 140 kVp. The idea is to use this inversion method to characterize and distinguish between the lipid and fibrous coronary artery plaques.With the idea to develop the inversion algorithm for low Zeff materials, as is the case with non calcified coronary artery plaque, we prepare aqueous samples whose calculated values of (ρe, Zeff) lie in the range (2.65×1023≤ ρe≤ 3.64×1023 per cc ) and (6.80≤ Zeff ≤ 8.90). We fill the phantom with these known samples and experimentally determine HU(100) and HU(140) for the same pixels. Knowing that the HU(V) values are related to the attenuation coefficient of the system, we present an algorithm by which the (ρe, Zeff) is calibrated with respect to (HU(100), HU(140)). The calibration is done with a known set of 20 samples; its accuracy is checked with a different set of 23 known samples. We find that the calibration gives the ρe with an accuracy of ± 4% while Zeff is found within ±1% of the actual value, the confidence being 95%.In this inversion method (ρe, Zeff) of the scanned sample can be found by eliminating the effects of the CT machine and also by ensuring that the determination of the two unknowns (ρe, Zeff) does not interfere with each other. It is found that this algorithm can be used for prediction of chemical characteristic (ρe, Zeff) of unknown scanned materials with 95% confidence level, by inversion of the DECT data.

Keywords: chemical composition, dual-energy computed tomography, inversion algorithm

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Authors: Elcin Timur Cakmak, Ayse Oguzlar

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This study presents the results of the tweets sent by Twitter users on social media about the Russia-Ukraine war by bigram and trigram methods. On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a military operation against Ukraine, and all eyes were turned to this war. Many people living in Russia and Ukraine reacted to this war and protested and also expressed their deep concern about this war as they felt the safety of their families and their futures were at stake. Most people, especially those living in Russia and Ukraine, express their views on the war in different ways. The most popular way to do this is through social media. Many people prefer to convey their feelings using Twitter, one of the most frequently used social media tools. Since the beginning of the war, it is seen that there have been thousands of tweets about the war from many countries of the world on Twitter. These tweets accumulated in data sources are extracted using various codes for analysis through Twitter API and analysed by Python programming language. The aim of the study is to find the word sequences in these tweets by the n-gram method, which is known for its widespread use in computational linguistics and natural language processing. The tweet language used in the study is English. The data set consists of the data obtained from Twitter between February 24, 2022, and April 24, 2022. The tweets obtained from Twitter using the #ukraine, #russia, #war, #putin, #zelensky hashtags together were captured as raw data, and the remaining tweets were included in the analysis stage after they were cleaned through the preprocessing stage. In the data analysis part, the sentiments are found to present what people send as a message about the war on Twitter. Regarding this, negative messages make up the majority of all the tweets as a ratio of %63,6. Furthermore, the most frequently used bigram and trigram word groups are found. Regarding the results, the most frequently used word groups are “he, is”, “I, do”, “I, am” for bigrams. Also, the most frequently used word groups are “I, do, not”, “I, am, not”, “I, can, not” for trigrams. In the machine learning phase, the accuracy of classifications is measured by Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and Naïve Bayes (NB) algorithms. The algorithms are used separately for bigrams and trigrams. We gained the highest accuracy and F-measure values by the NB algorithm and the highest precision and recall values by the CART algorithm for bigrams. On the other hand, the highest values for accuracy, precision, and F-measure values are achieved by the CART algorithm, and the highest value for the recall is gained by NB for trigrams.

Keywords: classification algorithms, machine learning, sentiment analysis, Twitter

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Authors: Martín Pratto Burgos

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The Engineering School of the University of the Republic in Uruguay offers an Introductory Mathematical Course from the second semester of 2019. This course has been designed to assist students in preparing themselves for math courses that are essential for Engineering Degrees, namely Math1, Math2, and Math3 in this research. The research proposes to build a model that can accurately predict the student's activity and academic progress based on their performance in the three essential Mathematical courses. Additionally, there is a need for a model that can forecast the incidence of the Introductory Mathematical Course in the three essential courses approval during the first academic year. The techniques used are Principal Component Analysis and predictive modelling using the Generalised Linear Model. The dataset includes information from 5135 engineering students and 12 different characteristics based on activity and course performance. Two models are created for a type of data that follows a binomial distribution using the R programming language. Model 1 is based on a variable's p-value being less than 0.05, and Model 2 uses the stepAIC function to remove variables and get the lowest AIC score. After using Principal Component Analysis, the main components represented in the y-axis are the approval of the Introductory Mathematical Course, and the x-axis is the approval of Math1 and Math2 courses as well as student activity three years after taking the Introductory Mathematical Course. Model 2, which considered student’s activity, performed the best with an AUC of 0.81 and an accuracy of 84%. According to Model 2, the student's engagement in school activities will continue for three years after the approval of the Introductory Mathematical Course. This is because they have successfully completed the Math1 and Math2 courses. Passing the Math3 course does not have any effect on the student’s activity. Concerning academic progress, the best fit is Model 1. It has an AUC of 0.56 and an accuracy rate of 91%. The model says that if the student passes the three first-year courses, they will progress according to the timeline set by the curriculum. Both models show that the Introductory Mathematical Course does not directly affect the student’s activity and academic progress. The best model to explain the impact of the Introductory Mathematical Course on the three first-year courses was Model 1. It has an AUC of 0.76 and 98% accuracy. The model shows that if students pass the Introductory Mathematical Course, it will help them to pass Math1 and Math2 courses without affecting their performance on the Math3 course. Matching the three predictive models, if students pass Math1 and Math2 courses, they will stay active for three years after taking the Introductory Mathematical Course, and also, they will continue following the recommended engineering curriculum. Additionally, the Introductory Mathematical Course helps students to pass Math1 and Math2 when they start Engineering School. Models obtained in the research don't consider the time students took to pass the three Math courses, but they can successfully assess courses in the university curriculum.

Keywords: machine-learning, engineering, university, education, computational models

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Authors: Juanita Wallace, Mark Jackson, Bethany Jurs

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Introduction: Exergames, VR games used as a form of exercise, are being used to reduce sedentary lifestyles in a vast number of populations. However, there is a distinct lack of research comparing the physiological response during VR exergaming to that of traditional exercises. The purpose of this study was to create a foundationary investigation establishing changes in physiological responses resulting from VR exergaming in a college aged population. Methods: In this IRB approved study, college aged students were recruited to play a virtual reality exergame (Beat Saber) on the Oculus Quest 2 (Facebook, 2021) in either a control group (CG) or training group (TG). Both groups consisted of subjects who were not habitual users of virtual reality. The CG played VR one time per week for three weeks and the TG played 150 min/week three weeks. Each group played the same nine Beat Saber songs, in a randomized order, during 30 minute sessions. Song difficulty was increased during play based on song performance. Subjects completed a pre- and posttests at which the following was collected: • Beat Saber Game Metrics: song level played, song score, number of beats completed per song and accuracy (beats completed/total beats) • Physiological Data: heart rate (max and avg.), active calories • Demographics Results: A total of 20 subjects completed the study; nine in the CG (3 males, 6 females) and 11 (5 males, 6 females) in the TG. • Beat Saber Song Metrics: The TG improved performance from a normal/hard difficulty to hard/expert. The CG stayed at the normal/hard difficulty. At the pretest there was no difference in game accuracy between groups. However, at the posttest the CG had a higher accuracy. • Physiological Data (Table 1): Average heart rates were similar between the TG and CG at both the pre- and posttest. However, the TG expended more total calories. Discussion: Due to the lack of peer reviewed literature on c exergaming using Beat Saber, the results of this study cannot be directly compared. However, the results of this study can be compared with the previously established trends for traditional exercise. In traditional exercise, an increase in training volume equates to increased efficiency at the activity. The TG should naturally increase in difficulty at a faster rate than the CG because they played 150 hours per week. Heart rate and caloric responses also increase during traditional exercise as load increases (i.e. speed or resistance). The TG reported an increase in total calories due to a higher difficulty of play. The song accuracy decreases in the TG can be explained by the increased difficulty of play. Conclusion: VR exergaming is comparable to traditional exercise for loads within the 50-70% of maximum heart rate. The ability to use VR for health could motivate individuals who do not engage in traditional exercise. In addition, individuals in health professions can and should promote VR exergaming as a viable way to increase physical activity and improve health in their clients/patients.

Keywords: virtual reality, exergaming, health, heart rate, wellness

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Authors: Kolade Olawande Owoeye, George Weir

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Terrorism and extremism activities on the internet are becoming the most significant threats to national security because of their potential dangers. In response to this challenge, law enforcement and security authorities are actively implementing comprehensive measures by countering the use of the internet for terrorism. To achieve the measures, there is need for intelligence gathering via the internet. This includes real-time monitoring of potential websites that are used for recruitment and information dissemination among other operations by extremist groups. However, with billions of active webpages, real-time monitoring of all webpages become almost impossible. To narrow down the search domain, there is a need for efficient webpage classification techniques. This research proposed a new approach tagged: SentiPosit-based method. SentiPosit-based method combines features of the Posit-based method and the Sentistrenght-based method for classification of terrorism and extremism webpages. The experiment was carried out on 7500 webpages obtained through TENE-webcrawler by International Cyber Crime Research Centre (ICCRC). The webpages were manually grouped into three classes which include the ‘pro-extremist’, ‘anti-extremist’ and ‘neutral’ with 2500 webpages in each category. A supervised learning algorithm is then applied on the classified dataset in order to build the model. Results obtained was compared with existing classification method using the prediction accuracy and runtime. It was observed that our proposed hybrid approach produced a better classification accuracy compared to existing approaches within a reasonable runtime.

Keywords: sentiposit, classification, extremism, terrorism

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Authors: S. Hutasavi, D. Chen

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The built-up area is a significant proxy to measure regional economic growth and reflects the Gross Provincial Product (GPP). However, an up-to-date and reliable database of built-up areas is not always available, especially in developing countries. The cloud-based geospatial analysis platform such as Google Earth Engine (GEE) provides an opportunity with accessibility and computational power for those countries to generate the built-up data. Therefore, this study aims to extract the built-up areas in Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), Thailand using day and nighttime satellite imagery based on GEE facilities. The normalized indices were generated from Landsat 8 surface reflectance dataset, including Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), Built-up Index (BUI), and Modified Built-up Index (MBUI). These indices were applied to identify built-up areas in EEC. The result shows that MBUI performs better than BUI and NDBI, with the highest accuracy of 0.85 and Kappa of 0.82. Moreover, the overall accuracy of classification was improved from 79% to 90%, and error of total built-up area was decreased from 29% to 0.7%, after night-time light data from the Visible and Infrared Imaging Suite (VIIRS) Day Night Band (DNB). The results suggest that MBUI with night-time light imagery is appropriate for built-up area extraction and be utilize for further study of socioeconomic impacts of regional development policy over the EEC region.

Keywords: built-up area extraction, google earth engine, adaptive thresholding method, rapid mapping

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Authors: Josip Visković, Josip Arnerić, Ante Rozga

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Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modelling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.

Keywords: central and east European countries, financial crisis, Markov switching GARCH model, transition probabilities

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Authors: Felipe A. Guth, Shane Ward, Kevin McDonnell

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The assessment of disease levels in crop fields is an important and time-consuming task that generally relies on expert knowledge of trained individuals. Image classification in agriculture problems historically has been based on classical machine learning strategies that make use of hand-engineered features in the top of a classification algorithm. This approach tends to not produce results with high accuracy and generalization to the classes classified by the system when the nature of the elements has a significant variability. The advent of deep convolutional neural networks has revolutionized the field of machine learning, especially in computer vision tasks. These networks have great resourcefulness of learning and have been applied successfully to image classification and object detection tasks in the last years. The objective of this work was to propose a new method based on deep learning convolutional neural networks towards the task of disease level monitoring. Common RGB images of winter wheat were obtained during a growing season. Five categories of disease levels presence were produced, in collaboration with agronomists, for the algorithm classification. Disease level tasks performed by experts provided ground truth data for the disease score of the same winter wheat plots were RGB images were acquired. The system had an overall accuracy of 84% on the discrimination of the disease level classes.

Keywords: crop disease assessment, deep learning, precision agriculture, residual neural networks

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Authors: Hala Alshamlan, Ghada Badr, Yousef Alohali

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Cancer is one of the dreadful diseases, which causes considerable death rate in humans. DNA microarray-based gene expression profiling has been emerged as an efficient technique for cancer classification, as well as for diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment purposes. In recent years, a DNA microarray technique has gained more attraction in both scientific and in industrial fields. It is important to determine the informative genes that cause cancer to improve early cancer diagnosis and to give effective chemotherapy treatment. In order to gain deep insight into the cancer classification problem, it is necessary to take a closer look at the proposed gene selection methods. We believe that they should be an integral preprocessing step for cancer classification. Furthermore, finding an accurate gene selection method is a very significant issue in a cancer classification area because it reduces the dimensionality of microarray dataset and selects informative genes. In this paper, we classify and review the state-of-art gene selection methods. We proceed by evaluating the performance of each gene selection approach based on their classification accuracy and number of informative genes. In our evaluation, we will use four benchmark microarray datasets for the cancer diagnosis (leukemia, colon, lung, and prostate). In addition, we compare the performance of gene selection method to investigate the effective gene selection method that has the ability to identify a small set of marker genes, and ensure high cancer classification accuracy. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to compare gene selection approaches for cancer classification using microarray gene expression profile.

Keywords: gene selection, feature selection, cancer classification, microarray, gene expression profile

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Authors: Naohiro Nakamura

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Analysis methods to accurately estimate the behavior of buildings when earthquakes occur is very important for improving the seismic safety of such buildings. Recently, the use of damping devices has increased significantly and there is a particular need to appropriately evaluate the behavior of buildings with such devices during earthquakes in the design stage. At present, however, the accuracy of the analysis evaluations is not sufficient. One reason is that the accuracy of current analysis methods has not been appropriately verified because there is very limited data on the behavior of actual buildings during earthquakes. Many types of shaking table test of large structures are performed at the '3-Dimensional Full-Scale Earthquake Testing Facility' (nicknamed 'E-Defense') operated by the National Research Institute of Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED). In this study, simulations using 3- dimensional analysis models were conducted on shaking table test of a 5-story steel-frame structure with dampers. The results of the analysis correspond favorably to the test results announced afterward by the committee. However, the suitability of the parameters and models used in the analysis and the influence they had on the responses remain unclear. Hence, we conducted additional analysis and studies on these models and parameters. In this paper, outlines of the test are shown and the utilized analysis model is explained. Next, the analysis results are compared with the test results. Then, the additional analyses, concerning with the hysteresis curve of the dampers and the beam-end stiffness of the frame, are investigated.

Keywords: three-dimensional analysis, E-defense, full-scale experimen, vibration control damper

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Authors: Goodness Onwuka, Khaled Abou-El-Hossein

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Borosilicate-crown (BK7) glass has found broad application in the optic and automotive industries and the growing demands for nanometric surface finishes is becoming a necessity in such applications. Thus, it has become paramount to optimize the parameters influencing the surface roughness of this precision lens. The research was carried out on a 4-axes Nanoform 250 precision lathe machine with an ultra-high precision grinding spindle. The experiment varied the machining parameters of feed rate, wheel speed and depth of cut at three levels for different combinations using Box Behnken design of experiment and the resulting surface roughness values were measured using a Taylor Hobson Dimension XL optical profiler. Acoustic emission monitoring technique was applied at a high sampling rate to monitor the machining process while further signal processing and feature extraction methods were implemented to generate the input to a neural network algorithm. This paper highlights the training and development of a back propagation neural network prediction algorithm through careful selection of parameters and the result show a better classification accuracy when compared to a previously developed response surface model with very similar machining parameters. Hence artificial neural network algorithms provide better surface roughness prediction accuracy in the ultra-high precision grinding of BK7 glass.

Keywords: acoustic emission technique, artificial neural network, surface roughness, ultra-high precision grinding

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Authors: Fahad Javed, Tasneem Akhter, Maria Zafar, Adnan Shafique

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Evaluation and quantification of techniques is critical element of research and development of technology. Simulations and models play an important role in providing the tools for such assessments. When we look at technologies which impact or is dependent on an average Joe consumer then modeling the socio-economic and psychological aspects of the consumer also gain an importance. For feed in tariff for home consumers which is being deployed for average consumer may force many consumers to be adapters of the technology. Understanding how consumers will adapt this technologies thus hold as much significance as evaluating how the techniques would work in consumer agnostic scenarios. In this paper we first build the case for simulators which accommodate socio-economic realities of the consumers to evaluate smart grid technologies, provide a glossary of data that can aid in this effort and present an abstract model to capture and simulate consumers' adaptation and behavioral response to smart grid technologies. We provide a case study to express the power of such simulators.

Keywords: smart grids, simulation, socio-economic parameters, feed in tariff (FiT), forecasting

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Authors: Mona Baniahmadi, Saied Haghanifar

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Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is regarded as a promising technology for the optimization of supply chain processes since it improves manufacturing and retail operations from forecasting demand for planning, managing inventory, and distribution. This study precisely aims at learning to know the RFID technology and at explaining how it can concretely be used for supply chain management and how it can help improving it in the case of Hejrat Company which is located in Iran and works on the distribution of medical drugs and cosmetics. This study uses some statistical analysis to calculate the expected benefits of an integrated RFID system on supply chain obtained through competitive advantages increases with decreasing cost factor. The study investigates how the cost of storage process, labor cost, the cost of missing goods, inventory management optimization, on-time delivery, order cost, lost sales and supply process optimization affect the performance of the integrated RFID supply chain regarding cost factors and provides a competitive advantage.

Keywords: cost, competitive advantage, radio frequency identification, supply chain

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Authors: Naduni Ranasinghe

Abstract:

E-learning environments are getting more popular than any other due to the impact of COVID19. Even though e-learning is one of the best solutions for the teaching-learning process in the academic process, it’s not without major challenges. Nowadays, machine learning approaches are utilized in the analysis of how behavioral factors lead to better adoption and how they related to better performance of the students in eLearning environments. During the pandemic, we realized the academic process in the eLearning approach had a major issue, especially for the performance of the students. Therefore, an approach that investigates student behaviors in eLearning environments using a data-intensive machine learning approach is appreciated. A hybrid approach was used to understand how each previously told variables are related to the other. A more quantitative approach was used referred to literature to understand the weights of each factor for adoption and in terms of performance. The data set was collected from previously done research to help the training and testing process in ML. Special attention was made to incorporating different dimensionality of the data to understand the dependency levels of each. Five independent variables out of twelve variables were chosen based on their impact on the dependent variable, and by considering the descriptive statistics, out of three models developed (Random Forest classifier, SVM, and Decision tree classifier), random forest Classifier (Accuracy – 0.8542) gave the highest value for accuracy. Overall, this work met its goals of improving student performance by identifying students who are at-risk and dropout, emphasizing the necessity of using both static and dynamic data.

Keywords: academic performance prediction, e learning, learning analytics, machine learning, predictive model

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Authors: Enas R. Shouman

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Economic development with population growth is leading to a continuous increase in energy demand. At the same time, growing global concern for the environment is driving to decrease the use of conventional energy sources and to increase the use of renewable energy sources. The objective of this study is to present the market trends of solar energy photovoltaic technology over the world and to represent economics methods for PV financial analyzes on the basis of expectations for the expansion of PV in many applications. In the course of this study, detailed information about the current PV market was gathered and analyzed to find factors influencing the penetration of PV energy. The paper methodology depended on five relevant economic financial analysis methods that are often used for investment decisions maker. These methods are payback analysis, net benefit analysis, saving-to-investment ratio, adjusted internal rate of return, and life-cycle cost. The results of this study may be considered as a marketing guide that helps diffusion of using PV Energy. The study showed that PV cost is economically reliable. The consumers will pay higher purchase prices for PV system installation but will get lower electricity bill.

Keywords: photovoltaic, financial methods, solar energy, economics, PV panel

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Authors: S. Zith Dey Babu, S. Kour, S. Verma, C. Verma, V. Pathania, A. Agrawal, V. Chaudhary, A. Manoj Puthur, R. Goyal, A. Pal, T. Danti Dey, A. Kumar, K. Wadhwa, O. Ved

Abstract:

Background: Skin cancer is now is the buzzing button in the field of medical science. The cyst's pandemic is drastically calibrating the body and well-being of the global village. Methods: The extracted image of the skin tumor cannot be used in one way for diagnosis. The stored image contains anarchies like the center. This approach will locate the forepart of an extracted appearance of skin. Partitioning image models has been presented to sort out the disturbance in the picture. Results: After completing partitioning, feature extraction has been formed by using genetic algorithm and finally, classification can be performed between the trained and test data to evaluate a large scale of an image that helps the doctors for the right prediction. To bring the improvisation of the existing system, we have set our objectives with an analysis. The efficiency of the natural selection process and the enriching histogram is essential in that respect. To reduce the false-positive rate or output, GA is performed with its accuracy. Conclusions: The objective of this task is to bring improvisation of effectiveness. GA is accomplishing its task with perfection to bring down the invalid-positive rate or outcome. The paper's mergeable portion conflicts with the composition of deep learning and medical image processing, which provides superior accuracy. Proportional types of handling create the reusability without any errors.

Keywords: computer-aided system, detection, image segmentation, morphology

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Authors: Areti Angeliki Veroniki, Sofia Tsokani, Evangelos Paraskevaidis, Dimitris Mavridis

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The plethora of diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) studies has led to the increased use of systematic reviews and meta-analysis of DTA studies. Clinicians and healthcare professionals often consult DTA meta-analyses to make informed decisions regarding the optimum test to choose and use for a given setting. For example, the human papilloma virus (HPV) DNA, mRNA, and cytology can be used for the cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+ (CIN2+) diagnosis. But which test is the most accurate? Studies directly comparing test accuracy are not always available, and comparisons between multiple tests create a network of DTA studies that can be synthesized through a network meta-analysis of diagnostic tests (DTA-NMA). The aim is to summarize the DTA-NMA methods for at least three index tests presented in the methodological literature. We illustrate the application of the methods using a real data set for the comparative accuracy of HPV DNA, HPV mRNA, and cytology tests for cervical cancer. A search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus from inception until the end of July 2019 to identify full-text research articles that describe a DTA-NMA method for three or more index tests. Since the joint classification of the results from one index against the results of another index test amongst those with the target condition and amongst those without the target condition are rarely reported in DTA studies, only methods requiring the 2x2 tables of the results of each index test against the reference standard were included. Studies of any design published in English were eligible for inclusion. Relevant unpublished material was also included. Ten relevant studies were finally included to evaluate their methodology. DTA-NMA methods that have been presented in the literature together with their advantages and disadvantages are described. In addition, using 37 studies for cervical cancer obtained from a published Cochrane review as a case study, an application of the identified DTA-NMA methods to determine the most promising test (in terms of sensitivity and specificity) for use as the best screening test to detect CIN2+ is presented. As a conclusion, different approaches for the comparative DTA meta-analysis of multiple tests may conclude to different results and hence may influence decision-making. Acknowledgment: This research is co-financed by Greece and the European Union (European Social Fund- ESF) through the Operational Programme «Human Resources Development, Education and Lifelong Learning 2014-2020» in the context of the project “Extension of Network Meta-Analysis for the Comparison of Diagnostic Tests ” (MIS 5047640).

Keywords: colposcopy, diagnostic test, HPV, network meta-analysis

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Authors: Beier Zhu, Rui Zhang, Qi Song

Abstract:

Text contained within fixed-layout documents can be of great semantic value and so requires a high localization accuracy, such as ID cards, invoices, cheques, and passports. Recently, algorithms based on deep convolutional networks achieve high performance on text detection tasks. However, for text localization in fixed-layout documents, such algorithms detect word bounding boxes individually, which ignores the layout information. This paper presents a novel architecture built on convolutional neural networks (CNNs). A global text localization network and a regional bounding-box regression network are introduced to tackle the problem in a coarse-to-fine manner. The text localization network simultaneously locates word bounding points, which takes the layout information into account. The bounding-box regression network inputs the features pooled from arbitrarily sized RoIs and refine the localizations. These two networks share their convolutional features and are trained jointly. A typical type of fixed-layout documents: ID cards, is selected to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed system. These networks are trained on data cropped from nature scene images, and synthetic data produced by a synthetic text generation engine. Experiments show that our approach locates high accuracy word bounding boxes and achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Keywords: bounding box regression, convolutional networks, fixed-layout documents, text localization

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