Search results for: the risk index

Authors: Anders Troedsson

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For us humans, risks are intimately linked to human vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially insecurity, and risk. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means increasing security and decreasing risk. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risks (including threats, assaults, crisis etc.), is to understand the vulnerabilities these external phenomena evoke in humans. As is argued, the basis of risk evaluation, as well as responses, is the more or less subjective perception by the individual person, or a group of persons, exposed to the external event or phenomena in question. This will be determined primarily by the vulnerability or vulnerabilities that the external factor are perceived to evoke. In this way, risk perception is primarily an inward dynamic, rather than an outward one. Therefore, a route towards an understanding of the perception of risks, is a closer scrutiny of the vulnerabilities which they can evoke, thereby approaching an understanding of what in the paper is called the essence of risk (including threat, assault etc.), or that which a certain perceived risk means to an individual or group of individuals. As a necessary basis for gauging the wide spectrum of potential risks and their meaning, the paper proposes a model of human vulnerabilities, drawing from i.a. a long tradition of needs theory. In order to account for the subjectivity factor, which mediates between the innate vulnerabilities on the one hand, and the event or phenomenon out there on the other hand, an ensuing ontological discussion about the timespace characteristics of risk/threat/assault as perceived by humans leads to the positing of two dimensions. These two dimensions are applied on the vulnerabilities, resulting in a modelling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which are related to each other and together represent a dynamic whole. In approaching the problem of risk perception, the paper thus defines the relevant realms of vulnerabilities, depicting them as a dynamic whole. With reference to a substantial body of literature and a growing international policy trend since the 1990s, this model is put in the language of human security - a concept relevant not only for international security studies and policy, but also for other academic disciplines and spheres of human endeavor.

Keywords: human security, timespace, vulnerabilities, risk perception

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Authors: Marcus Bellett-Travers

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Different modelling approaches have been used to determine or predict yield of crops in different geographies. Central to the methodologies are the presumption that it is the absolute yield of the crop in a given location that is of the highest priority to those requiring information on crop productivity. Most individuals, companies and organisations within the agri-food sector need to be able to balance the supply of crops with the demand for them. Different modelling approaches have been used to determine and predict crop yield. The growing need to ensure certainty of supply and stability of prices requires an approach that describes the risk in producing a crop. A review of current methodologies to evaluate the risk to food production from changes in the weather and climate is presented.

Keywords: crop production, risk, climate, modelling

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Authors: Rawan Masarwa, Merav Ben Natan, Yaron Berkovich

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Background: Hip fracture repair surgery carries a certain mortality risk, yet evidence suggests that orthopedic surgeons often refrain from discussing this issue with patients prior to surgery. Aim: This study aims to examine whether orthopedic surgeons address the issue of one-year post-surgery mortality before hip fracture repair surgery and to explore the factors influencing this decision. Method: The study uses a cross-sectional design, administering validated digital questionnaires to 150 orthopedic surgeons. Results: A minority of orthopedic surgeons reported consistently informing patients about the risk of mortality in the year following hip fracture surgery. The primary reasons for not discussing this risk were a desire to avoid frightening patients, time constraints, and concerns about undermining patient hope. Surgeons reported a medium-high level of perceived self-efficacy, with higher self-efficacy linked to a reduced likelihood of discussing one-year mortality risk. In contrast, older age and holding a specialist status in orthopedic surgery were associated with a higher likelihood of discussing this risk with patients. Conclusions: The findings suggest a need for interventions to address communication barriers and ensure consistent provision of essential information to patients undergoing hip fracture surgery. Additionally, they emphasize the importance of considering individual factors such as self-efficacy, age, and expertise in developing strategies to enhance patient-provider communication in orthopedic care settings.

Keywords: orthopedic surgeons, hip fracture surgery, mortality risk communication, patient information

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Authors: Ragini Trehan, D.K. Srivastava

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In the post-planning era, India’s fiscal transfers from the central to state governments are solely determined by the Finance Commissions (FCs). While in some of the well-established federations such as Australia, Canada, and Germany, equalization serves as the guiding principle of fiscal transfers and is constitutionally mandated, in India, it is not explicitly mandated, and FCs attempt to implement it indirectly by a combination of a formula-based share in the divisible pool of central taxes supplemented by a set of grants. In this context, it is important to measure the extent of equalization that is achieved through FC transfers with a view to improving the design of such transfers. This study uses an index-based methodology for measuring the degree of equalization achieved through FC-transfers covering the period from FC12 to the first year of FC15 spanning from 2005-06 to 2020-21. The ‘Index of Equalization’ shows that the extent of equalization has remained low in the range of 30% to 37% for the four Commission periods under review. The highest degree of equalization at 36.7% was witnessed in the FC12 period and the lowest equalization at 29.5% was achieved during the FC15(1) period. The equalizing efficiency of recommended transfers also shows a consistent fall from 11.4% in the FC12 period to 7.5% by the FC15 (1) period. Further, considering progressivity in fiscal transfers as a special case of equalizing transfers, this study shows that the scheme of per capita total transfers when determined using the equalization approach is more progressive and is characterized by minimal deviations as compared to the profile of transfers recommended by recent FCs.

Keywords: fiscal transfers, index of equalization, equalizing efficiency, fiscal capacity, expenditure needs, finance Commission, tax effort

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Authors: Suraj Sam Issaka, Anita Asamoah, Abass Gibrilla, Joseph Richmond Fianko

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Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a group of organic compounds that can form in edible oils during repeated frying and accumulate in fried foods. This study assesses the chances of health risks (carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic) due to PAHs levels in popular finger foods (bean cakes, plantain chips, doughnuts) fried in edible oils (mixed vegetable, sunflower, soybean) from the Ghanaian market. Employing probabilistic health risk assessment that considers variability and uncertainty in exposure and risk estimates provides a more realistic representation of potential health risks. Monte Carlo simulations with 10,000 iterations were used to estimate carcinogenic, mutagenic, and non-carcinogenic risks for different age groups (A: 6-10 years, B: 11-20 years, C: 20-70 years), food types (bean cake, plantain chips, doughnut), oil types (soybean, mixed vegetable, sunflower), and re-usage frying oil frequencies (once, twice, thrice). Our results suggest that, for age Group A, doughnuts posed the highest probability of carcinogenic risk (91.55%) exceeding the acceptable threshold, followed by bean cakes (43.87%) and plantain chips (7.72%), as well as the highest probability of unacceptable mutagenic risk (89.2%), followed by bean cakes (40.32%). Among age Group B, doughnuts again had the highest probability of exceeding carcinogenic risk limits (51.16%) and mutagenic risk limits (44.27%). At the same time, plantain chips exhibited the highest maximum carcinogenic risk. For adults age Group C, bean cakes had the highest probability of unacceptable carcinogenic (50.88%) and mutagenic risks (46.44%), though plantain chips showed the highest maximum values for both carcinogenic and mutagenic risks in this age group. Also, on non-carcinogenic risks across different age groups, it was found that age Group A) who consumed doughnuts had a 68.16% probability of a hazard quotient (HQ) greater than 1, suggesting potential cognitive impairment and lower IQ scores due to early PAH exposure. This group also faced risks from consuming plantain chips and bean cake. For age Group B, the consumption of plantain chips was associated with a 36.98% probability of HQ greater than 1, indicating a potential risk of reduced lung function. In age Group C, the consumption of plantain chips was linked to a 35.70% probability of HQ greater than 1, suggesting a potential risk of cardiovascular diseases.

Keywords: PAHs, fried foods, carcinogenic risk, non-carcinogenic risk, Monte Carlo simulations

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Authors: Ibrahim M. I. Hamoda, Ahmed R. Z. Baghdadi, Mohammed K. Mohamed, Nawal A. Abu-Shady

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Background: Most of patients with vestibular dysfunction suffering from balance disorders, Abnormality in balance increase effort and exertion which affect the independency, so this study might be a guide in managing balance problem and consequently improve walking with less exertion and maximum function. Purpose: to analyze and discuss the effect of transcranial magnetic therapy on balance in patients with vestibular dysfunction. Methods: forty subjects from both sexes were classified to divided randomly into two equal groups; Group I study group: this group received transcranial magnetic therapy, with a selected physical therapy program for improving balance and vestibular disorders (Balance training, Cawthorne-Cooksey Exercises) and group II (control group): this group received a selected physical therapy program as group I without transcranial magnetic therapy. This treatment procedure will be applied three times weekly for three months. The mean age was 54.53±3.44 and 55.33±2.32 years and BMI 35.7±3.03 and 35.73±1.03 kg/m2 for group I and II respectively. The Biodex Balance System, Berge balances scale (BBS) and brain MRI were used for assessment. Assessments were conducted before and after treatment. The treatment program for group I included balance training, Cawthorne-Cooksey Exercises and pulsed magnetic therapy (Parameters used in the program of 20 minutes, Intensity 2 gausses, Frequency 1 Hz). This selected program was done in approximately one hour every other day for three month. The treatment program group II Patients received the same program as group A without transcranial magnetic therapy. Results: The One-way ANOVA revealed that there were no significant differences in BBS scores, overall balance index, Anterior / posterior balance index, Medial / lateral balance index and dynamic limits of stability between both groups. Moreover, the BBS scores increased and overall balance index, Anterior / posterior balance index, Medial / lateral balance index and dynamic limits of stability decreased significantly after treatment in group I and II compared with before treatment. Interpretation/Conclusion: Adding pulsed magnetic therapy to balance training, Cawthorne-Cooksey Exercises has no effect on static and dynamic balance in patients with balance problems due to benign positional paroxysmal vertigo.

Keywords: balance, transcranial magnetic therapy, vestibular dysfunction, biomechanic

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Authors: Darrol Stanley, Levan Efremidze, Jannie Rossouw

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We investigate the predictability of the USD/ZAR (South African Rand) exchange rate with sample entropy analytics for the period of 2004-2015. We calculate sample entropy based on the daily data of the exchange rate and conduct empirical implementation of several market timing rules based on these entropy signals. The dynamic investment portfolio based on entropy signals produces better risk adjusted performance than a buy and hold strategy. The returns are estimated on the portfolio values in U.S. dollars. These results are preliminary and do not yet account for reasonable transactions costs, although these are very small in currency markets.

Keywords: currency trading, entropy, market timing, risk factor model

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Authors: Leila Ramezani, Mohammad Saeid Mossadegh

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Different uses of land by humans alter the physico chemical characteristics of the soil and affect the soil microhabitat. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of tillage in three different human land uses on microarthropods biodiversity in Khuzestan province, southwest of Iran. Three microhabitats including a permanent grassland with old Date-Palms around and no till system, and two wheat fields, one with conservative agricultural practices and low till system and the other with conventional agricultural practices (deep tillage), were compared for the biodiversity of the two main groups of soil microarthropods (Oribatida and Collembola). Soil samples were collected from the top to a depth of 15 cm bimonthly during a period of two years. Significant differences in the biodiversity index of microarthropods were observed between the different tillage systems (F = 36.748, P =0.000). Indeed, analysis of species diversity showed that the diversity index at the conservative field with low till (2.58 ± 0.01) was higher (p < 0.05) than the conventional tilled field (2.45 ± 0.08) and the diversity of natural grassland was the highest (2.79 ± 0.19, p < 0.05). Indeed, the index of biodiversity and population abundance differed significantly in different seasons (p < 0.00).

Keywords: biodiversity, Collembola, microarthropods, Oribatida

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Authors: Chokri Slim

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The objective of this research is attempting to respond to this question: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and statistical learning models in predicting credit risk management? A Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model was compared with neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and a Support vector regression (SVR). The population of this study includes 50 listed Banks in Tunis Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2000 to 2016. Firstly, we show the factors that have significant effect on the quality of loan portfolios of banks in Tunisia. Secondly, it attempts to establish that the systematic use of objective techniques and methods designed to apprehend and assess risk when considering applications for granting credit, has a positive effect on the quality of loan portfolios of banks and their future collectability. Finally, we will try to show that the bank governance has an impact on the choice of methods and techniques for analyzing and measuring the risks inherent in the banking business, including the risk of non-repayment. The results of empirical tests confirm our claims.

Keywords: credit risk management, multiple linear regression, principal components analysis, artificial neural networks, support vector machines

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Authors: Akbar Rostamabadi, Adel Mazloumi, Abbas Rahimi Foroushani

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This study aimed to determine the Work Ability Index (WAI) and examine the influence of health dimensions and demographic variables on the work ability of Iranian farmers working in small farm enterprises. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 294 male farmers. The WAI and SF-36 questionnaires were used to determine work ability and health status. The effect of demographics variables on the work ability index was investigated with the independent samples t-test and one-way ANOVA. Also, multiple linear regression analysis was used to test the association between the mean WAI score and the SF-36 scales. The mean WAI score was 35.1 (SD=10.6). One-way ANOVA revealed a significant relationship between the mean WAI and age. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that work ability was more influenced by physical scales of the health dimensions, such as physical function, role-physical, and general health, whereas a lower association was found for mental scales such as mental health. The average WAI was at a moderate work ability level for the sample population of farmers in this study. Based on the WAI guidelines, improvement of work ability and identification of factors affecting it should be considered a priority in interventional programs. Given the influence of health dimensions on WAI, any intervention program for preservation and promotion work ability among the studied farmers should be based on balancing and optimizing the physical and psychosocial work environments, with a special focus on reducing physical work load.

Keywords: farmers, SF-36, Work Ability Index (WAI), Iran

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Authors: C. S. Saini

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The composite flour blend consisting of corn, pearl millet, black gram and wheat bran in the ratio of 80:5:10:5 was taken to prepare the extruded product and their effect on physical properties of extrudate was studied. The extrusion process was conducted in laboratory by using twin screw extruder. The physical characteristics evaluated include lateral expansion, bulk density, water absorption index, water solubility index, rehydration ratio and moisture retention. The Central Composite Rotatable Design (CCRD) was used to decide the level of processing variables i.e. feed moisture content (%), screw speed (rpm), and barrel temperature (oC) for the experiment. The data obtained after extrusion process were analyzed by using response surface methodology. A second order polynomial model for the dependent variables was established to fit the experimental data. The numerical optimization studies resulted in 127°C of barrel temperature, 246 rpm of screw speed, and 14.5% of feed moisture as optimum variables to produce acceptable extruded product. The responses predicted by the software for the optimum process condition resulted in lateral expansion 126 %, bulk density 0.28 g/cm3, water absorption index 4.10 g/g, water solubility index 39.90 %, rehydration ratio 544 % and moisture retention 11.90 % with 75 % desirability.

Keywords: black gram, corn flour, extrusion, physical characteristics

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Authors: Hui Wu, Ye Li

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Applying the structural break estimation method proposed by Perron and Bai (1998) to the housing price growth rate of top 5 MSAs in the Texas area, this paper estimated the structural break date for the growth rate of housing prices index. As shown in the estimation results, the break dates for each region are quite different, which indicates the heterogeneity of the housing market in response to macroeconomic conditions.

Keywords: structural break, housing prices index, ADF test, linear model

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Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

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Authors: Florian Lienert, Peter Costa, Caroline Aurensan, Elaine Melander

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Introduction: Rabies pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can be given before travel and simplifies post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). We studied the knowledge about rabies, the uptake of PrEP, and reasons for deciding for or against PrEP in at-risk travelers. We also examined how healthcare professionals (HCPs) counsel on rabies prevention. Methods: On behalf of Bavarian Nordic, Ipsos MORI conducted two online surveys in the USA. Fieldwork from February 24th to April 23rd, 2021, 689 participants aged 18-85 years, visited one of 91 endemic rabies countries in the past 3 years for at least one week, involved in at least 1 of 7 at-risk activities, heard of rabies, positive towards vaccination and chose to take part (surveyed travelers). Secondly, 76 HCPs, with responsibility for advising/ making decisions about vaccination requirements for their patients, personally recommend or prescribe vaccines for rabies, positive towards vaccination and chose to take part (surveyed HCPs). Results: A minority (36%) of surveyed travelers classified rabies as a life-threatening disease. A third of surveyed HCPs (37%) did not discuss rabies vaccination with at-risk travelers, 18% discussed only PEP, 23% only PrEP and 22% both. A minority (21%) of surveyed travelers reported having received rabies vaccination since they were 18. Among those participants (n=145), the most common reasons for deciding to get PrEP were for their own peace of mind (35%) and following an HCP recommendation (32%). Of those who decided not to receive the rabies vaccine (n=319), the most common reasons were that they did not think their risk of rabies was sufficient (23%) and that the HCP did not suggest it (23%). Conclusions: The survey demonstrated knowledge gaps around rabies and low PrEP coverage among surveyed travelers. It also highlighted the role of HCP recommendations and showed that most HCPs did not discuss PrEP with at-risk travelers.

Keywords: rabies, pre-exposure prophylaxis, travel, travel health, post-travel care, rabies treatment, vaccine, post-exposure, prophylaxis, at-risk, education, PrEP, PEP

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Authors: Snehalata Tembhurne

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Introduction: A healthy menstrual cycle is a sign of women’s sound health.Various variables may influence the length and regularity of menstrual cycle.Studies have revealed that menstrual cycle abnormalities may be associated with psychological stress,lack of physical exercise, alteration in body composition,endocrine disturbances,higher estrogen levels as seen in obese females.Hence there is an urgent need to find out the relationship between variations in body mass composition(BMI & body fat%) with menstrual abnormalities like primary dysmenorrhoea. Aim: To find out the relationship between body mass composition and primary dysmenorrhea. Objectives: 1.To check whether there is any association between body mass index and primary dysmenorrhoea.2.To check whether there is any association between body fat percentage and primary dysmenorrhoea. NULL HYPOTHESES-There is no relationship between body mass composition and primary dysmenorrhea. Hypothesis: There exists a relationship between body mass composition and primary dysmenorrhea. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted over a period of 6 months with 90 samples selected on random basis. The procedure was explained to the participant and a written consent was taken thereafter. The participant was made to stand on the BODY COMPOSITION SCANNING MONITOR, which scanned the physical profile of the participant (height, weight, BMI, body fat percentage and visceral fat).Thereafter, the candidate was asked about her menstrual irregularities and was asked to grade her level of dysmenorrhoea (if present) using the Verbal Dimensional Dysmenorrhea Scale. Results: Chi square test of association was used to find out the association between body mass composition(body mass index,body fat percentage) and primary dysmenorrhea.The chi-square value for association between body mass index and primary dysmenorrhea was 38.63 p<0.001 which was statistically significant.The chi-square value for the association of body fat % & primary dysmenorrhea was 30.09,p<0.001which was statistically significant. Conclusion: Study shows that there exists a significant relationship between body mass composition and primary dysmenorrhea and as the value of Body mass index and body fat percentages goes on increasing in females, the severity of primary dysmenorrhea also increases.

Keywords: body mass index, body composition screening monitor, primary dysmenorrhea, verbal dimensional dysmenorrhea scale

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Authors: Febri Ramadhan, Sigid Hariyadi, Niken Tunjung Murti Pratiwi, Budiman Djoko Said

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The scope about maritime security copes all of the problems emanating from maritime domain. Those problems can give such threats to national security of the state. One of threats taking place nowadays in maritime domain is about pollution. Pollution coming from many sources may increase water-borne disease risk that can cause the instability of national security. Pollution coming from many sources may increase water-borne disease risk. Hence the pollution makes an improper condition of environments for humans and others biota dwelling in the waters. One of the tools that can determine about pollution is by measuring about the water quality of its waters. In this case, what brings the waste and pollutants is there an activity of tidal waves introducing substances or energy into the natural environment. Cengkareng Drain is one of the water channels which is affected by tidal waves. Cengkareng Drain was become an observation area to examine the relation between water quality and tide waves. This research was conducted monthly from July to November 2015. Sampling of water was conducted every ebb and tide in every observation. Pollution index showed that the level of pollution on Cengkareng drain was moderately polluted, with the score about 7.7-8.6. Based on the results of t-test and analysis of similarity, the characteristic of water quality on rising tide does not significantly differ from the characteristic of water quality on ebbing tide. Therefore, we need a proper management as a means to control the pollutants in order to make good maritime security strategy.

Keywords: maritime security, Cengkareng drain, water quality, tidal waves

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Authors: Ferruh Taspinar, Gulce K. Seyyar, Gamze Kurt, Eda O. Okur, Emrah Afsar, Ismail Saracoglu, Betul Taspinar

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Alterations of physical activity can effect body composition (especially body fat ratio); however body mass index may not sufficient to indicate these minimal differences. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between body composition and physical activity in university students. In this study, 132 university students (mean age; 21.21±1.51) were included. Tanita BC-418 and International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) were used to evaluate participants. The correlation between the parameters was analysed via Spearman correlation analysis. Significance level in statistical analyses was accepted is 0.05. The results showed that there was no correlation between body mass index and physical activity (p>0.05). There was a positive correlation between body muscle ratio and physical activity, whereas a negative correlation between body fat ratio and physical activity (p<0.05). This study showed that body fat and muscle ratio affects the level of physical activity in healthy university students. Therefore, we thought that physical activity might reduce effects of the diseases caused by disturbed body composition. Further studies are required to support this idea.

Keywords: body composition, body mass index, physical activity, university student

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Authors: Benmessaoud Hassen

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The sensitivity to the desertification map of the south of Aurès region has been elaborated by the crossing of four thematic layers capable to have an impact on the process of desertification. The following step is inspired of MEDALUS (Mediterranean desertification and land Use), which use qualitative index to define the environment zones sensitive to the desertification. The cartographical information of vegetation, the climate, the soil and the socioeconomic state descended from cartographic data transformed to numerical data then seized on, structured and managed by an algorithm dedicated to a geographical information system. In step with information, each layer makes object of 3 or 4 classes, the geometrical median of the four layers used are leaded to sensitivity classes (ISD) of different mapped environment.

Keywords: information systems, thematic layers, the sensitivity to the desertification map, concept MEDALUS, South of Aurès

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Authors: Amritee Bora, B. S. Mipun

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Land degradation is often used to describe the land environmental phenomena that reduce land’s original productivity both qualitatively and quantitatively. The study of land degradation vulnerability primarily deals with “Environmentally Sensitive Areas” (ESA) and the amount of topsoil loss due to erosion. In many studies, it is observed that the assessment of the existing status of land degradation is used to represent the vulnerability. Moreover, it is also noticed that in most studies, the primary emphasis of land degradation vulnerability is to assess its sensitivity to soil erosion only. However, the concept of land degradation vulnerability can have different objectives depending upon the perspective of the study. It shows the extent to which changes in land use land cover can imprint their effect on the land. In other words, it represents the susceptibility of a piece of land to degrade its productive quality permanently or in the long run. It is also important to mention that the vulnerability of land degradation is not a single factor outcome. It is a probability assessment to evaluate the status of land degradation and needs to consider both biophysical and human induce parameters. To avoid the complexity of the previous models in this regard, the present study has emphasized on to generate a simplified model to assess the land degradation vulnerability in terms of its current human population pressure, land use practices, and existing biophysical conditions. It is a “Mixed-Method” termed as the land degradation vulnerability index (LDVi). It was originally inspired by the MEDALUS model (Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use), 1999, and Farazadeh’s 2007 revised version of it. It has followed the guidelines of Space Application Center, Ahmedabad / Indian Space Research Organization for land degradation vulnerability. The model integrates the climatic index (Ci), vegetation index (Vi), erosion index (Ei), land utilization index (Li), population pressure index (Pi), and cover management index (CMi) by giving equal weightage to each parameter. The final result shows that the very high vulnerable zone primarily indicates three (3) prominent circumstances; land under continuous population pressure, high concentration of human settlement, and high amount of topsoil loss due to surface runoff within the study sites. As all the parameters of the model are amalgamated with equal weightage further with the help of regression analysis, the LDVi model also provides a strong grasp of each parameter and how far they are competent to trigger the land degradation process.

Keywords: population pressure, land utilization, soil erosion, land degradation vulnerability

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Authors: Diego de Almeida Pereira

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The roughness index of a road is considered the most important parameter about the quality of the pavement, as it has a close relation with the comfort and safety of the road users. Such condition can be established by means of functional evaluation of pavement surface deviations, measured by the International Roughness Index (IRI), an index that came out of the international evaluation of pavements, coordinated by the World Bank, and currently owns, as an index of limit measure, for purposes of receiving roads in Brazil, the value of 2.7 m/km. This work make use of the e.IRI parameter, obtained by the Roadroid app. for smartphones which use Android operating system. The choice of such application is due to the practicality for the user interaction, as it possesses a data storage on a cloud of its own, and the support given to universities all around the world. Data has been collected for six months, once in each month. The studies begun in March 2018, season of precipitations that worsen the conditions of the roads, besides the opportunity to accompany the damage and the quality of the interventions performed. About 350 kilometers of sections of four federal highways were analyzed, BR-020, BR-040, BR-060 and BR-070 that connect the Federal District (area where Brasilia is located) and surroundings, chosen for their economic and tourist importance, been two of them of federal and two others of private exploitation. As well as much of the road network, the analyzed stretches are coated of Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA). Thus, this present research performs a contrastive discussion between comfort conditions and safety of the roads under private exploitation in which users pay a fee to the concessionaires so they could travel on a road that meet the minimum requirements for usage, and regarding the quality of offered service on the roads under Federal Government jurisdiction. And finally, the contrast of data collected by National Department of Transport Infrastructure – DNIT, by means of a laser perfilometer, with data achieved by Roadroid, checking the applicability, the practicality and cost-effective, considering the app limitations.

Keywords: roadroid, international roughness index, Brazilian roads, pavement

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Authors: Haykal. Kay-Anne

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The health and well-being of students is a priority for the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Ottawa. The demands of medical studies are extreme, and many studies confirm that the prevalence of psychological distress is very high among medical students and that it is higher than that of the general population of the same age. The main goal is to identify risk factors for mental health among medical students at the University of Ottawa. The secondary objectives are to determine the variation of these risk factors according to demographic variables, as well as to determine if there is a change in the mental health of students during the 1st and 3rd years of their study. Medical students have a mandatory first and third-year wellness check meeting. This assessment includes a questionnaire on demographic information, mental health, and risk factors such as physical health, sleep, social support, financial stress, education and career, stress and drug use and/or alcohol. Student responses were converted to numerical values and analyzed statistically. The results show that 61% of the variation in the mean of the mental health score is explained by the following risk factors (R2 = 0.61, F (9.396) = 67.197, p < 0.01): lack of sleep and fatigue (β = 0.281, p < 0.001), lack of social support (β = 0.217, p <0.001), poor study or career development (β = 0.195, p < 0.001) and an increase stress and drug and alcohol use (β = -0.239, p < 0.001). No demographic variable has a significant effect on the presence of risk factors. In addition, fixed-effects regression demonstrated significantly lower mental health (p < 0.1) among first-year students (M = 0.587, SD = 0.072) than among third-year students (M = 0.719, SD = 0.071). This preliminary study indicates the need to continue data collection and analysis to increase the significance of the study results. As risk factors are present at the beginning of medical studies, it is important to offer resources to students very early in their medical studies and to have close monitoring and supervision.

Keywords: assessment of mental health, medical students, risk factors for mental health, wellness assessment

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Authors: S. Yousefi Oderji, B. Chen

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According to the ASTM C1018 toughness index method, the single and combined toughness effects of copper coated steel fiber and polypropylene (pp) fiber on reactive powder concrete (RPC) were investigated. Through flexural toughness test of RPC with different fiber volume dosages, the corresponding load-deflection curves were also drawn. Test results indicate that the binary combination of fibers provide the best flexural toughness, and improve the post-peak load-deflection characteristics of RPC. However, the single effect of pp fibers was not pronounced on improving the flexural toughness of RPC.

Keywords: RPC, PP, flexural toughness, toughness index

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Authors: T. J. Ellapen, N. Acampora, S. Dawson, J. Arling, C. Van Niekerk, H. J. Van Heerden

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Objectives: To determine the comparative proprioceptive performance of injured versus non-injured adolescent female hockey players when wearing an ankle brace. Methods: Data were collected from 100 high school players who belonged to the Highway Secondary School KZN Hockey league via voluntary parental informed consent and player assent. Players completed an injury questionnaire probing the prevalence and nature of hockey injuries (March-August 2013). Subsequently players completed a Biodex proprioceptive test with and without an ankle brace. Probability was set at p≤ 0.05. Results: Twenty-two players sustained ankle injuries within the six months (p<0.001). Injured players performed similarly without bracing Right Anterior Posterior Index (RAPI): 2.8±0.9; Right Medial Lateral Index (RMLI): 1.9±0.7; Left Anterior Posterior Index (LAPI) LAPI: 2.7; Left Medial Lateral Index (LMLI): 1.7±0.6) as compared to bracing (RAPI: 2.7±1.4; RMLI: 1.8±0.6; LAPI: 2.6±1.0; LMLI: 1.5±0.6) (p>0.05). However, bracing (RAPI: 2.2±0.8; RMLI: 1.5±0.5; LAPI: 2.4±0.9; MLI: 1.5±0.5) improved the ankle stability of the non-injured group as compared to their unbraced performance (RAPI: 2.5±1.0; RMLI: 1.8±0.8; LAPI: 2.8±1.1; LMLI: 1.8±0.6) (p<0.05). Conclusion: Ankle bracing did not enhance the stability of injured ankles. However ankle bracing has an ergogenic effect enhancing the stability of healthy ankles.

Keywords: hockey, proprioception, ankle, bracing

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Authors: Leandi Steenkamp

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The sectional title industry has been a part of the property landscape in South Africa for almost half a century, and plays a significant role in addressing the housing problem in the country. Stakeholders such as owners and investors in sectional title property are in most cases not directly involved in the management thereof, and place reliance on the audited annual financial statements of bodies corporate for decision-making purposes. Although the industry seems to be highly regulated, the legislation regarding accounting and auditing of sectional title is vague and ambiguous. Furthermore, there are no industry-specific auditing and accounting standards to guide accounting and auditing practitioners in performing their work and industry financial benchmarks are not readily available. In addition, financial pressure on sectional title schemes is often very high due to the fact that some owners exercise unrealistic pressure to keep monthly levies as low as possible. All these factors have an impact on the business risk as well as audit risk of bodies corporate. Very little academic research has been undertaken on the sectional title industry in South Africa from an accounting and auditing perspective. The aim of this paper is threefold: Firstly, to discuss the findings of a literature review on uncertainties, ambiguity and confusing aspects in current legislation regarding the audit of a sectional title property that may cause or increase audit and business risk. Secondly, empirical findings of risk-related aspects from the results of interviews with three groups of body corporate role-players will be discussed. The role-players were body corporate trustee chairpersons, body corporate managing agents and accounting and auditing practitioners of bodies corporate. Specific reference will be made to business risk and audit risk. Thirdly, practical recommendations will be made on possibilities of closing the audit expectation gap, and further research opportunities in this regard will be discussed.

Keywords: assurance, audit, audit risk, body corporate, corporate governance, sectional title

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Authors: Aayush Anant, Roshni Thendiyath

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Aridity impacts on agriculture, as well as ecological, human health, and economic activities. In the present study, the effect of climate change on aridity index has been analysed in South Bihar for the past 30 year period by five types of aridity indices as Lang AI, De-Martonne AI, Erinc AI, Pinna combinative AI and UNEP AI. For the study of aridity index, the analysis of rainfall and temperature is significant. Rainfall was analysed for 30 year period from data of 23 gridded stations in for the period 1991-2020. The results show that rainfall pattern was decreasing with respect to previous decades for majority of stations. Trend of maximum, minimum and mean annual temperature has been observed, which shows increasing trend. Structural breakpoint was observed for mean annual temperature data series in year 2004. In period 1991-2004 mean annual temperature was 25.25 ºC, and in period 2005-2020, mean annual temperature was 25.7 ºC. Average aridity index has been calculated by all the above mentioned methods for whole 30 period. Lang AI shows that eastern part of study area is Humid type, and rest all is semi arid. De-Martonne AI also reveals that east part is humid, but rest of the study area is moist sub humid. According to Erinc AI and Pinna, combinative AI shows that whole south Bihar is dry sub humid and semi dry, respectively. UNEP AI shows most of the part as sub humid, and very small part in west is semi arid, while small part of east is humid. Temporal distribution of all the aridity indices shows a decreasing trend. This indicates a decrease in the humid areas in south Bihar for the selected time period.

Keywords: drought, aridity index, climate change, rainfall, temperature

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Authors: Murat Gunduz, Mustafa Ozdemir

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In this research, a framework is to be proposed to model the safety performance in construction sites. Determinants of safety performance are to be defined through extensive literature review and a multidimensional safety performance model is to be developed. In this context, a questionnaire is to be administered to construction companies with sites. The collected data through questionnaires including linguistic terms are then to be defuzzified to get concrete numbers by using fuzzy set theory which provides strong and significant instruments for the measurement of ambiguities and provides the opportunity to meaningfully represent concepts expressed in the natural language. The validity of the proposed safety performance model, relationships between determinants of safety performance are to be analyzed using the structural equation modeling (SEM) which is a highly strong multi variable analysis technique that makes possible the evaluation of latent structures. After validation of the model, a safety performance index assessment tool is to be proposed by the help of software. The proposed safety performance assessment tool will be based on the empirically validated theoretical model.

Keywords: Fuzzy set theory, safety performance assessment, safety index, structural equation modeling (SEM), construction sites

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Authors: Salima Taleb, Kafila Boulaba, Ahlem Yousfi, Nada Taleb, Difallah Basma

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Introduction: Obesity is recognized as a cardiovascular risk factor. It is associated with cardio-metabolic diseases. Its prevalence is increasing significantly in both rich and poor countries. However, there are obese people who have no metabolic disturbance. So we think obesity is not always a risk factor for an abnormal metabolic profile that increases the risk of cardiometabolic problems. However, there is no definition that allows us to identify the individual group Metabolically Healthy but Obese (MHO). Objective: The objective of this study is to evaluate the relationship between MHO and some factors associated with it. Methods: A longitudinal study is a prospective cohort study of 600 participants aged ≥18 years. Metabolic status was assessed by the following parameters: blood pressure, fasting glucose, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and triglycerides. Body Mass Index (BMI) was calculated as weight (in kg) divided by height (m2), BMI = Weight/(Height)². According to the BMI value, our population was divided into four groups: underweight subjects with BMI <18.5 kg/m2, normal weight subjects with BMI = 18.5–24.9 kg/m², overweight subjects with BMI=25–29.9 kg/m², and obese subjects who have (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m²). A value of P < 0.05 was considered significant. Statistical processing was done using the SPSS 25 software. Results: During this study, 194 (32.33%) were identified as MHO among 416 (37%) obese individuals. The prevalence of the metabolically unhealthy phenotype among normal-weight individuals was (13.83%) vs. (37%) in obese individuals. Compared with metabolically healthy normal-weight individuals (10.93%), the prevalence of diabetes was (30.60%) in MHO, (20.59%) in metabolically unhealthy normal weight, and (52.29%) for metabolically unhealthy obese (p = 0.032). Blood pressure was significantly higher in MHO individuals than in metabolically healthy normal-weight individuals and in metabolically unhealthy obese than in metabolically unhealthy normal weight (P < 0.0001). Familial coronary artery disease does not appear to have an effect on the metabolic status of obese and normal-weight patients (P = 0.544). However, waist circumference appears to have an effect on the metabolic status of individuals (P < 0.0001). Conclusion: This study showed a high prevalence of metabolic profile disruption in normal-weight subjects and a high rate of overweight and/or obese people who are metabolically healthy. To understand the physiological mechanism related to these metabolic statuses, a thorough study is needed.

Keywords: metabolically health, obesity, factors associated, cardiovascular diseases

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Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker, Michael Ellis

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There is a real danger that both practitioners and researchers considering risks associated with megaprojects ignore or underestimate the impacts of cultural risk. The paper investigates the potential impacts of a failure to achieve cultural unity between the principal actors executing a megaproject. The principle relationships include the relationships between the principle Contractors and the project stakeholders or the project stakeholders and their principle advisors, Western Consultants. This study confirms that cultural dissonance between these parties can delay or disrupt the megaproject execution and examines why cultural issues should be prioritized as a significant risk factor in megaproject delivery. This paper addresses the practical impacts and potential mitigation measures, which may reduce cultural dissonance for a megaproject's delivery. This information is retrieved from on-going case studies in live infrastructure megaprojects in Europe and the Middle East's GCC states, from Western Consultants' perspective. The collaborating researchers each have at least 30 years of construction experience and are engaged in architecture, project management and contracts management, dealing with megaprojects in Europe or the GCC. After examining the cultural interfaces they have observed during the execution of megaprojects, they conclude that globally, culture significantly influences their efficient delivery. The study finds that cultural risk is ever-present, where different nationalities co-manage megaprojects and that cultural conflict poses a real threat to the timely delivery of megaprojects. The study indicates that the higher the cultural distance between the principal actors, the more pronounced the risk, with the risk of cultural dissonance more prominent in GCC megaprojects. The findings support a more culturally aware and cohesive team approach and recommend cross-cultural training to mitigate the effects of cultural disparity.

Keywords: cultural risk underestimation, cultural distance, megaproject characteristics, megaproject execution

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Authors: Tamrat Tesfaye, Bruce Sithole

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Box-Behnken Response surface methodology was used to determine the optimum processing conditions that give maximum extraction yield and whiteness index from mango seed. The steeping time ranges from 2 to 12 hours and slurring of the steeped seed in sodium metabisulphite solution (0.1 to 0.5 w/v) was carried out. Experiments were designed according to Box-Behnken Design with these three factors and a total of 15 runs experimental variables of were analyzed. At linear level, the concentration of sodium metabisulphite had significant positive influence on percentage yield and whiteness index at p<0.05. At quadratic level, sodium metabisulphite concentration and sodium metabisulphite concentration2 had a significant negative influence on starch yield; sodium metabisulphite concentration and steeping time*temperature had significant (p<0.05) positive influence on whiteness index. The adjusted R2 above 0.8 for starch yield (0.906465) and whiteness index (0.909268) showed a good fit of the model with the experimental data. The optimum sodium metabisulphite concentration, steeping hours, and temperature for starch isolation with maximum starch yield (66.428%) and whiteness index (85%) as set goals for optimization with the desirability of 0.91939 was 0.255w/v concentration, 2hrs and 50 °C respectively. The determined experimental value of each response based on optimal condition was statistically in accordance with predicted levels at p<0.05. The Mango seeds are the by-products obtained during mango processing and possess disposal problem if not handled properly. The substitution of food based sizing agents with mango seed starch can contribute as pertinent resource deployment for value-added product manufacturing and waste utilization which might play significance role of food security in Ethiopia.

Keywords: mango, synthetic sizing agent, starch, extraction, textile, sizing

Procedia PDF Downloads 230

Authors: Bernard Moeketsi Hlalele

Abstract:

Drought is a complicated natural phenomenon that creates significant economic, social, and environmental problems. An analysis of paleoclimatic data indicates that severe and extended droughts are inevitable part of natural climatic circle. This study characterised drought in Lejweleputswa using both Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and neural networks (NN) to quantify and predict respectively. Monthly 37-year long time series precipitation data were obtained from online NASA database. Prior to the final analysis, this dataset was checked for outliers using SPSS. Outliers were removed and replaced by Expectation Maximum algorithm from SPSS. This was followed by both homogeneity and stationarity tests to ensure non-spurious results. A non-parametric Mann Kendall's test was used to detect monotonic trends present in the dataset. Two temporal scales SPI-3 and SPI-12 corresponding to agricultural and hydrological drought events showed statistically decreasing trends with p-value = 0.0006 and 4.9 x 10⁻⁷, respectively. The study area has been plagued with severe drought events on SPI-3, while on SPI-12, it showed approximately a 20-year circle. The concluded the analyses with a seasonal analysis that showed no significant trend patterns, and as such NN was used to predict possible SPI-3 for the last season of 2018/2019 and four seasons for 2020. The predicted drought intensities ranged from mild to extreme drought events to come. It is therefore recommended that farmers, agri-business owners, and other relevant stakeholders' resort to drought resistant crops as means of adaption.

Keywords: drought, risk, neural networks, agri-businesses, project, Lejweleputswa

Procedia PDF Downloads 125