Search results for: future development trend of mechatronics in pakistan

Authors: Aisha Liaquat Ali, Ghulam Sarwar Gachal, Muhammad Yusuf Sheikh

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The parrot (Psittacula krameri borealis) commonly known as ‘Tota’ belongs to the order ‘Psittaciformes’ and family ‘Psittacidea’. Its range inhabits tropical to subtropical regions. The parrot (Psittacula krameri borealis) has been categorized as least concern species. The core aim of the present study is to investigate the nesting of parrot (Psittacula krameri borealis); site observation was done a different interval from various adjoining areas of District Mirpurkhas from June 2017 to May 2018. During the study period, altogether 15 nests were observed, number of nests were high in June’s month (33.3%), July (13.3%), August (20.0 %), March (13.3%), April (13.3%) while the lowest number of nest was observed in September’s month (6.6%) and the nest was absent from October to February. It investigates that the number of nests was high June’s month when temperature range between '20 °C' and '45 °C'.

Keywords: District Mirpurkhas Sindh Pakistan, nesting, parrot (Psittacula krameri), presence

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Authors: Siti Nurjanah, Supahar

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E-learning has become an increasingly popular mode of instruction, particularly in the field of physics education, where it offers opportunities for interactive and engaging learning experiences. This research aims to analyze the trends of research that investigated e-learning in physics education. Data was extracted from Scopus's database using the keywords "physics" and "e-learning". Of the 380 articles obtained based on the search criteria, a trend analysis of the research was carried out with the help of RStudio using the biblioshiny package and VosViewer software. Analysis showed that publications on this topic have increased significantly from 2014 to 2021. The publication was dominated by researchers from the United States. The main journal that publishes articles on this topic is Proceedings Frontiers in Education Conference fie. The most widely cited articles generally focus on the effectiveness of Moodle for physics learning. Overall, this research provides an in-depth understanding of the trends and key findings of research related to e-learning in physics.

Keywords: bibliometric analysis, physics education, biblioshiny, E-learning

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Authors: Amna Ali Nasser Al-Saadi, Riken Homma, Kazuhisa Iki

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Need to generate objective communication between researchers, Practitioners and policy makers are top concern of sustainability. Despite the fact that many places have successes in achieving some aspects of sustainable urban development, there are no scientific facts to convince policy makers in the rest of the world to apply their guides and manuals. This is because each of them was developed to fulfill the need of specific city. The question is, how to learn the lesson from each case study? And how distinguish between the potential criteria and negative one? And how quantify their effects in the future development? Walkability has been found as a solution to achieve healthy life style as well as social, environmental and economic sustainability. Moreover, it is complicated as every aspect of sustainable development. This research is stand on quantitative- comparative methodology in order to assess pedestrian oriented development. Three Analyzed Areas (AAs) were selected. One site is located in Oman in which hypotheses as motorized oriented development, while two sites are in Japan where the development is pedestrian friendly. The study used Multi-Criteria Evaluation Method (MCEM). Initially, MCEM stands on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The later was structured into main goal (walkability), objectives (functions and layout) and attributes (the urban form criteria). Secondly, the GIS were used to evaluate the attributes in multi-criteria maps. Since each criterion has different scale of measurement, all results were standardized by z-score and used to measure the co-relations among cr iteria. Different scenario was generated from each AA. After that, MCEM (AHP- OWA) based on GIS measured the walkability score and determined the priority of criteria development in the non-walker friendly environment. As results, the comparison criteria for z-score presented a measurable distinguished orientation of development. This result has been used to prove that Oman is motorized environment while Japan is walkable. Also, it defined the powerful criteria and week criteria regardless to the AA. This result has been used to generalize the priority for walkable development.

Keywords: walkability, sustainable development, multi- criteria evaluation method, gis

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Authors: Hanadi Mohamed Shawgi Gamal, Claus Thomas Bues

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Wood density is a variable influencing many of the technological and quality properties of wood. Understanding the pattern of wood density radial variation is important for its end-use. The X-ray technique, traditionally applied to softwood species to assess the wood quality properties, due to its simple and relatively uniform wood structure. On the other hand, very limited information is available about the validation of using this technique for hardwood species. The suitability of using the X-ray technique for the determination of hardwood density has a special significance in countries like Sudan, where only a few timbers are well known. This will not only save the time consumed by using the traditional methods, but it will also enhance the investigations of the great number of the lesser known species, the thing which will fill the huge cap of lake information of hardwood species growing in Sudan. The current study aimed to evaluate the validation of using the X-ray densitometry technique to determine the radial variation of wood density of Acacia seyal var. seyal. To this, a total of thirty trees were collected randomly from four states in Sudan. The wood density radial trend was determined using the basic density as well as density obtained by the X-ray densitometry method in order to assess the validation of X-ray technique in wood density radial variation determination. The results showed that the pattern of radial trend of density obtained by X-ray technique is very similar to that achieved by basic density. These results confirmed the validation of using the X-ray technique for Acacia seyal var. seyal density radial trend determination. It also promotes the suitability of using this method in other hardwood species.

Keywords: x-ray densitometry, wood density, Acacia seyal var. seyal, radial variation

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Authors: Roman Major, Klaudia Trembecka- Wojciga, Juergen Markus Lackner, Boguslaw Major

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The future and the development of science is therefore seen in interdisciplinary areas such as bio medical engineering. Self-assembled structures, similar to stem cell niches would inhibit fast division process and subsequently capture the stem cells from the blood flow. By means of surface topography and the stiffness as well as micro structure progenitor cells should be differentiated towards the formation of endothelial cells monolayer which effectively will inhibit activation of the coagulation cascade. The idea of the material surface development met the interest of the clinical institutions, which support the development of science in this area and are waiting for scientific solutions that could contribute to the development of heart assist systems. This would improve the efficiency of the treatment of patients with myocardial failure, supported with artificial heart assist systems. Innovative materials would enable the redesign, in the post project activity, construction of ventricular heart assist.

Keywords: bio-inspired materials, electron microscopy, haemocompatibility, niche-like structures, thin coatings

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Authors: Justin Sentian, Franky Herman, Maggie Chel Gee Ooi, Vivian Kong WAN Yee, Teo You Rou, Chin Jia Hui

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Isoprene emission is known to depend heavily on temperature and radiation. Considering these environmental factors together is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of the impact of climate change on isoprene emissions and atmospheric chemistry. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate how isoprene emission responds to changing climate scenarios in Southeast Asia (SEA). Two climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used to simulate climate change using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF v3.9.1) model in three different time periods: near-future (2030-2039), mid-century (2050-2059), and far future (2090-2099), with 2010 (2005-2014) as the baseline period. The output from WRF was then used to investigate how isoprene emission changes under a changing climate by using the Model Emission of Gases and Aerosol from Nature (MEGAN v2.1). The results show that the overall isoprene emissions during the baseline period are 1.41 tons hr-1 during DJF and 1.64 tons hr-1 during JJA. The overall emissions for both RCPs slightly increase during DJF, ranging from 0.03 to 0.06 tons hr-1 in the near future, 0.11 to 0.19 tons hr-1 in the mid-century, and 0.24 to 0.52 tons hr-1 in the far future. During JJA season, environmental conditions often favour higher emission rates in MEGAN due to their optimal state. Isoprene emissions also show a strong positive correlation (0.81 – 1.00) with temperature and photosynthetic active radiation (PAR). The future emission rate of isoprene is strongly modulated by both temperature and PAR, as indicated by a strong positive correlation (0.81 - 1.00). This relationship underscores the fact that future warming will not be the sole driver impacting isoprene emissions. Therefore, it is essential to consider the multifaceted effect of climate change in shaping the levels of isoprene in the future.

Keywords: isoprene, climate change, Southeast Asia, WRF, MEGAN.

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Authors: Ana Ramsha, Samrah Hidayat

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This study examines the role of social parameters in the choice of address forms used in kinship domain in Punjab, Pakistan. The study targeted 140 respondents in order to test the impact of social factors along with the regional differences in the choices of address forms in kinship domain. Statistical analyses are done by applying t-test for gender in relation to choices of address forms and ANOVA for age, income, education and social class. The study finds out that there is a strong connection of different social parameters not only with language use and practice but also in choices and use of address forms, especially in kinship relationships. Moreover, it is highlighted that gender does not influence in the choices of address forms, even the participants belonging to young and middle categories show no significant difference with regard to the choices of address form despite the fact that all the factors and parameters exert influence on the choices of address forms. Hence address forms as being one of the major traits of language and society is affected by all the social factors around and regional differences are also most important as they give identity and ethnicity to the society.

Keywords: address forms, kinship, social parameters, linguistics

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Authors: Sameh Abu El-Soud, Zahra Zayed, Safwan Khedr, Adel M. Belal

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The population increase in Egypt is urging for horizontal land development which became a demand to allow the benefit of different natural resources and expand from the narrow Nile valley. However, this development is facing challenges preventing land development and agriculture development. Desertification and moving sand dunes in the west sector of Egypt are considered the major obstacle that is blocking the ideal land use and development. In the proposed research, the sandy soil is treated biologically using Bacillus pasteurii bacteria as these bacteria have the ability to bond the sand partials to change its state of loose sand to cemented sand, which reduces the moving ability of the sand dunes. The procedure of implementing the Microbial Induced Carbonate Precipitation Technique (MICP) technique is examined, and the different factors affecting on this process such as the medium of bacteria sample preparation, the optical density (OD600), the reactant concentration, injection rates and intervals are highlighted. Based on the findings of the MICP treatment for sandy soil, conclusions and future recommendations are reached.

Keywords: soil stabilization, biological treatment, microbial induced carbonate precipitation (MICP), sand cementation

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Authors: Parth Shah

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The author examines the recent trend where business organizations are significantly reducing their developmental cycle times to stay competitive in today’s global marketspace. The author proposes a rapid systems engineering framework to address late design changes and allow for flexibility (i.e. to react to unexpected or late changes and its impacts) during the product development cycle using a Systems Engineering approach. A System Engineering approach is crucial in today’s product development to deliver complex products into the marketplace. Design changes can occur due to shortened timelines and also based on initial consumer feedback once a product or service is in the marketplace. The ability to react to change and address customer expectations in a responsive and cost-efficient manner is crucial for any organization to succeed. Past literature, research, and methods such as concurrent development, simultaneous engineering, knowledge management, component sharing, rapid product integration, tailored systems engineering processes, and studies on reducing product development cycles all suggest a research gap exist in specifically addressing late design changes due to the shortening of life cycle environments in increasingly competitive markets. The author’s research suggests that 1) product development cycles time scales are now measured in months instead of years, 2) more and more products have interdepended systems and environments that are fast-paced and resource critical, 3) product obsolesce is higher and more organizations are releasing products and services frequently, and 4) increasingly competitive markets are leading to customization based on consumer feedback. The author will quantify effectiveness with respect to success factors such as time-to-market, return-of-investment, life cycle time and flexibility in late design changes by complexity of product or service, number of late changes and ability to react and reduce late design changes.

Keywords: product development, rapid systems engineering, scalability, systems engineering, systems integration, systems life cycle

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Authors: Aishah Tamby Omar, Zolkifle Ahmad

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The aim of this research was to explore academician perception of toxic leadership in higher education organizations. The data consisted of 17 semi-structured interviews with academicians’ grade 45 above. According to them, toxicity in higher education organizations can be categorized as dysfunctional command, employee anti-social, less trust and commitment, abusive supervision, tyranny, unethical, hierarchical structures, and permissive environment. While they believed that culture, climate, and situational factors may form a toxic development and have the greatest influence on toxicity determination in higher education organizations. Respondents acknowledged that the future studies should involve the person who had held positions to get their opinions. These results emphasized the need for the leaders to learn about leadership in order to avoid a negative performance of the higher education organizations in the near future.

Keywords: academician perception, higher education organizations, leadership, toxic leadership

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Authors: Segun Jacob Ogunkunle

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The study examined the moderating effects of future career interest in science and gender on achievement in basic science of students taught in a simulated laboratory and enriched laboratory guide material environments. It adopted the pretest-posttest control group quasi experimental design with a 3x2x2 factorial matrix. A total of 277 (130 males, 147 females; ± 17 years) junior secondary three students randomly selected from six purposively selected secondary schools based on availability of functional computer and physics laboratories participated in the study. Data were collected using achievement test in basic science (r=0.87) and future career interest in science (r=0.99) while analysis of covariance and estimated marginal means were used to test three hypotheses at 0.05 level of significance. The findings of the study show that future career interest in science had significant effect on students’ achievement in basic science whereas gender did not. The interaction effect of future career interest in science and gender on students’ achievement in basic science was not significant. It is therefore recommended that prior knowledge of students’ future career interest in science could be used to improve participation in basic science practical in order to enhance achievement in biology, chemistry, and physics at the post-basic education level in Nigeria.

Keywords: future career interest in science, basic science, simulated laboratory, enriched laboratory guide materials, achievement in science

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Authors: Mark A. Spooner

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The growth of technological advances in the digital communications industry has dictated the way forensic examination laboratories receive, analyze, and report on digital evidence. This study looks at the trends in a medium sized digital forensics lab that examines small communications devices (i.e., cellular telephones, tablets, thumb drives, etc.) over the past five years. As law enforcement and homeland security organizations budgets shrink, many agencies are being asked to perform more examinations with less resources available. Using multi-level statistical analysis using five years of examination data, this research shows the increasing technological demand trend. The research then extrapolates the current data into the model created and finds a continued exponential growth curve of said demands is well within the parameters defined earlier on in the research.

Keywords: digital forensics, forensic examination, small device, trends

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Authors: Alireza Abbasi Moshaii, Farshid Najafi

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In this paper a new model for centre of motion creating is proposed. This new method uses cables. So, it is very useful in robots because it is light and has easy assembling process. In the robots which need to be in touch with some things this method is very good. It will be described in the following. The accuracy of the idea is proved by an experiment. This system could be used in the robots which need a fixed point in the contact with some things and make a circular motion. Such as dancer, physician or repair robots.

Keywords: centre of motion, robotic cables, permanent touching, mechatronics engineering

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Authors: Darren J. Ellis

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This paper investigates the key industry-level consequences and future prospects for the global airline industry of the requirement for airlines to have a home base. This industry context results in geographical location playing a central role in determining how and where international airlines can operate, and the extent to which their international networks can develop. Data from a five stage mixed-methods Delphi study into the global airline industry’s likely future trajectory conducted in 2013 and 2014 are utilized to better understand the likelihood and consequences of home base requirements changing in future. Expert views and forecasts were collected to gauge core industry trends over a ten year timeframe. Attempts to change or bypass this industry requirement have not been successful to date outside of the European single air market. Europe remains the only prominent exception to the general rule in this regard. Most of the industry is founded on air space sovereignty, the nationality rule, and the bilateral system of traffic rights. Europe’s exceptionalism has seen it evolve into a single air market with characteristics similar to a nation-state, rather than to become a force for wider industry change and regional multilateralism. Europe has indeed become a key actor in global aviation, but Europe seems to now be part of the industry’s status quo, not a vehicle for substantially wider multilateralism around the world. The findings from this research indicate that the bilateral system is not viewed by most study experts as disappearing or substantially weakening in the foreseeable future. However, regional multilateralism was also viewed as progressively taking hold in the industry in future, demonstrating that for most industry experts the two are not seen as mutually exclusive but rather as being able to co-exist with each other. This reality ensures that geographical location will continue to play an important role in the global airline industry in future and that, home base requirements will not disappear any time soon either. Even moves in some aviation jurisdictions to dilute nationality requirements for airlines, and instead replace ownership and control restrictions with principal place of business tests, do not ultimately free airlines from their home base. Likewise, an expansion of what constitutes home base to include a regional grouping of countries – again, a currently uncommon reality in global aviation – does not fundamentally weaken the continued relevance of geographical location to the global industry’s future growth and development realities and prospects.

Keywords: airline industry, air space sovereignty, geographical location, home base

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Authors: Prosper Tafadzwa Denhere, Ephias Ruhode, Munyaradzi Zhou

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Health Information Systems (HISs) interoperability is emerging to be the future of modern healthcare systems Enterprise Architecture (EA), where healthcare entities are seamlessly interconnected to share healthcare data. The reality that the healthcare industry has been characterised by an influx of fragmented stand-alone e-Health systems, which present challenges of healthcare information sharing across platforms, desires much attention for systems integration efforts. The lack of an EA conceptual framework resultantly crates the need for investigating an ideal solution to the objective of Health Information Systems interoperability development assessment. The study takes a qualitative exploratory approach through a design science research context. The research aims to study the various themes withdrawn from the literature that can help in the assessment of interoperable HISs development through a literature study. Themes derived from the study include HIS needs, HIS readiness, HIS constraints, and HIS technology integration elements and standards tied to the EA development architectural layers of The Open Group Architecture Framework (TOGAF) as an EA development methodology. Eventually, the themes were conceptualised into a framework reviewed by two experts. The essence of the study was to provide a framework within which interoperable EA of HISs should be developed.

Keywords: enterprise architecture, eHealth, health information systems, interoperability

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Authors: Ali Razmi, Saeed Golian

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Climate change is known to have the potential to impact adversely hydrologic patterns for variables such as rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and sea level rise. Long-term average of these climate variables could possibly change over time due to climate change impacts. In this study, trend analysis was performed on rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and water level data of a coastal area in Manhattan, New York City, Central Park and Battery Park stations to investigate if there is a significant change in the data mean. Partial Man-Kendall test was used for trend analysis. Frequency analysis was then performed on data using common probability distribution functions such as Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), normal, log-normal and log-Pearson. Goodness of fit tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov are used to determine the most appropriate distributions. In flood frequency analysis, rainfall and water level data are often separately investigated. However, in determining flood zones, simultaneous consideration of rainfall and water level in frequency analysis could have considerable effect on floodplain delineation (flood extent and depth). The present study aims to perform flood frequency analysis considering joint probability distribution for rainfall and storm surge. First, correlation between the considered variables was investigated. Joint probability distribution of extreme water level and temperature was also investigated to examine how global warming could affect sea level flooding impacts. Copula functions were fitted to data and joint probability of water level with rainfall and temperature for different recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, 600 and 1000 was determined and compared with the severity of individual events. Results for trend analysis showed increase in long-term average of data that could be attributed to climate change impacts. GEV distribution was found as the most appropriate function to be fitted to the extreme climate variables. The results for joint probability distribution analysis confirmed the necessity for incorporation of both rainfall and water level data in flood frequency analysis.

Keywords: climate change, climate variables, copula, joint probability

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Authors: Kiran Bala Das

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This paper examines the Ukraine wheat export condition after Russian-Ukrainian military confrontation. The political conflict in Ukraine and the recent military intervention of Russia in Crimea is raising concern full effect of the events there is still uncertain, but some hints can be seen in the wheat market by analyzing the trend and pattern of Ukraine wheat export. Crimea is extremely important as it is where most of Ukraine grain exported by ship from its ports of the black sea. Ukraine is again seeking to establish itself a significant exporter of agricultural product with its rich black soil, it is chornozem the top soil layer that makes the country soil so fertile and become one of the major exporter of wheat in the world, its generous supplier of wheat make Ukraine 'Bread basket of Europe'. Ukraine possesses 30% of the world’s richest black soil; its agricultural industry has huge potential especially in grains. European Union (EU) is a significant trading partner of Ukraine but geopolitical tension adversely affects the wheat trade from black sea, which threatens Europe breadbasket. This study also highlights an index of export intensity to analyze the intensity of existing trade for the period 2011-2014 between Ukraine and EU countries. The result show export has intensified over the years, but this year low trade intensity. The overall consequence is hard to determine but if the situation deteriorates and Ukraine cutoff export, international wheat price will hike and grain prices (wheat) also come under the current circumstances and the recent development indicates how the grain market get affected and Agri future now in danger in Ukraine, and its forecast that Ukraine harvest low wheat crop this year and projected decline in export of wheat.

Keywords: breadbasket of Europe, export intensity index, growth rate, wheat export

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Authors: Nattapol Pourprasert

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This research is to study qualitative research having two objectives: 1. to study comparison of private sector of government to compare with ASEAN Member States, 2. to study trend of private enterprise administration of ASEAN Member States. The results are: (1) Thai people focus on personal resource administrative system, (2) Indonesia focuses on official system by good administrative principles, (3) Malaysia focuses on technology development to service people, (4) Philippines focuses on operation system development, (5) Singapore focuses on public service development, (6) Brunei Darussalam focuses on equality in government service of people, (7) Vietnam focuses on creating government labor base and develop testing and administration of operation test, (8) Myanmar focuses on human resources development, (9) Laos focuses on form of local administration, (10) Cambodia focuses on policy revolution in personal resources. The result of the second part of the study are: (1) Thailand created government personnel to be power under qualitative official structural event, (2) Indonesia has Bureaucracy Reform Roadmap of Bureaucracy Reform and National Development Plan Medium Term, (3) Malaysia has database for people service, (4) Philippines follows up control of units operation by government policy, (5) Singapore created reliability, participation of people to set government policy people’s demand, (6) Brunei Darussalam has social welfare to people, (7) Vietnam revolved testing system and administration including manpower base construction of government effectively, (8) Myanmar creates high rank administrators to develop country, (9) Laos distributes power to locality, and (10) Cambodia revolved personnel resource policy.

Keywords: public administration development, ASEAN member states, private sector, government

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Authors: Azadeh Mohajer Milani

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Urbanization constitutes an irreversible global trend, presenting myriad challenges such as heightened energy consumption, pollution, congestion, and the depletion of natural resources. Today's urban landscapes have emerged as focal points for economic, social, and environmental challenges, underscoring the pressing need for sustainable development. This article delves into the realm of sustainable urban development, concentrating on the pivotal role played by integrated green spaces as an optimal solution to address environmental concerns within cities. The study utilizes Tehran as a case study. Our findings underscore the imperative of preserving and expanding green spaces in urban areas, coupled with the establishment of well-designed ecological networks, to enhance environmental quality and elevate the sustainability of cities. Notably, Tehran's urban green spaces exhibit a disjointed design, lacking a cohesive network to connect various patches and corridors, resulting in significant environmental impacts. The results emphasize the necessity of a balanced and proportional distribution of urban green spaces and the creation of a cohesive patch-corridor-matrix network tailored to the ecological and social needs of residents. This approach is crucial for fostering a more sustainable and livable urban environment for all species, with a specific focus on humans.

Keywords: ecology, sustainable urban development, sustainable landscape, urban green space network

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

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Authors: Nokwethaba Makhanya, Babatunde J. Abiodun, Piotr Wolski

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Climate change possibly intensifies hydrological droughts and reduces water availability in river basins. Despite this, most research on climate change effects in southern Africa has focused exclusively on meteorological droughts. This thesis projects the potential impact of climate change on the future characteristics of hydrological droughts in the Limpopo River Basin (LRB). The study uses regional climate model (RCM) measurements (from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, CORDEX) and a combination of hydrological simulations (using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model, SWAT+) to predict the impacts at four global warming levels (GWLs: 1.5℃, 2.0℃, 2.5℃, and 3.0℃) under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The SWAT+ model was calibrated and validated with a streamflow dataset observed over the basin, and the sensitivity of model parameters was investigated. The performance of the SWAT+LRB model was verified using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R²). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) have been used to detect meteorological droughts. The Soil Water Index (SSI) has been used to define agricultural drought, while the Water Yield Drought Index (WYLDI), the Surface Run-off Index (SRI), and the Streamflow Index (SFI) have been used to characterise hydrological drought. The performance of the SWAT+ model simulations over LRB is sensitive to the parameters CN2 (initial SCS runoff curve number for moisture condition II) and ESCO (soil evaporation compensation factor). The best simulation generally performed better during the calibration period than the validation period. In calibration and validation periods, NSE is ≤ 0.8, while PBIAS is ≥ ﹣80.3%, RMSE ≥ 11.2 m³/s, and R² ≤ 0.9. The simulations project a future increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration over the basin, but they do not project a significant future trend in precipitation and hydrological variables. However, the spatial distribution of precipitation reveals a projected increase in precipitation in the southern part of the basin and a decline in the northern part of the basin, with the region of reduced precipitation projected to increase with GWLs. A decrease in all hydrological variables is projected over most parts of the basin, especially over the eastern part of the basin. The simulations predict meteorological droughts (i.e., SPEI and SPI), agricultural droughts (i.e., SSI), and hydrological droughts (i.e., WYLDI, SRI) would become more intense and severe across the basin. SPEI-drought has a greater magnitude of increase than SPI-drought, and agricultural and hydrological droughts have a magnitude of increase between the two. As a result, this research suggests that future hydrological droughts over the LRB could be more severe than the SPI-drought projection predicts but less severe than the SPEI-drought projection. This research can be used to mitigate the effects of potential climate change on basin hydrological drought.

Keywords: climate change, CORDEX, drought, hydrological modelling, Limpopo River Basin

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Authors: Aktar-Uz-Zaman, M. Tuhina-Khatun, Mohamed Hanafi Musa

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Three rust diseases: leaf (brown) rust caused by Puccinia triticina Eriks, stripe (yellow) rust caused by Puccinia striiformis West, and stem (black) rust caused by Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici are economically important diseases of wheat in world wide. Yield loss due to leaf rust is 40% in susceptible cultivars. Yield losses caused by the stem rust pathogens in the mid of 20 century reached 20-30% in Eastern and Central Europe and the most virulent stem rust race Ug99 emerged first in Uganda and after that in Kenya, Ethiopia, Yemen, in the Middle East and South Asia. Yield losses were estimated up to 100%, whereas, up to 80% have been reported in Kenya during 1999. In case of stripe rust, severity level has been recorded 60% - 70% as compared to 100% severity of susceptible check in disease screening nurseries in Kenya. Improvement of resistant varieties or cultivars is the sustainable, economical and environmentally friendly approaches for increasing the global wheat production to suppress the rust diseases. More than 68 leaf rust, 49 stripe rust and 53 stem rust resistance genes have been identified in the global wheat cultivars or varieties using different molecular breeding approaches. Among these, Lr1, Lr9, Lr10, Lr19, Lr21, Lr24, Lr25, Lr28, Lr29, Lr34, Lr35, Lr37, Lr39, Lr47, Lr51, Lr3bg, Lr18, Lr40, Lr46, and Lr50 leaf rust resistance genes have been identified by using molecular, enzymatic and microsatellite markers from African, Asian, European cultivars of hexaploid wheat (Triticum aestivum), durum wheat and diploid wheat species. These genes are located on 20, of the 21 chromosomes of hexaploid wheat. Similarly, Sr1, Sr2, Sr24, and Sr3, Sr31 stem rust resistance genes have been recognized from wheat cultivars of Pakistan, India, Kenya, and Uganda etc. A race of P. striiformis (stripe rust) Yr9, Yr18, and Yr29 was first observed in East Africa, Italy, Pakistan and India wheat cultivars. These stripe rust resistance genes are located on chromosomes 1BL, 4BL, 6AL, 3BS and 6BL in bread wheat cultivars. All these identified resistant genes could be used for notable improvement of susceptible wheat cultivars in the future.

Keywords: hexaploid wheat, resistance genes, rust disease, triticum aestivum

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Authors: Afnan Ahmad, Shahid Ali, Mujahid Khan

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This research presents the parametric study of an existing earth fill dam located at Latamber, Karak city, Pakistan. The study consists of carrying out seepage analysis, slope stability analysis, and Earthquake analysis of the dam for the existing dam geometry and do the same for modified geometry. Dams are massive as well as expensive hydraulic structure, therefore it needs proper attention. Additionally, this dam falls under zone 2B region of Pakistan, which is an earthquake-prone area and where ground accelerations range from 0.16g to 0.24g peak. So it should be deal with great care, as the failure of any dam can cause irreparable losses. Similarly, seepage as well as slope failure can also cause damages which can lead to failure of the dam. Therefore, keeping in view of the importance of dam construction and associated costs, our main focus is to carry out parametric study of newly constructed dam. GeoStudio software is used for this analysis in the study in which Seep/W is used for seepage analysis, Slope/w is used for Slope stability analysis and Quake/w is used for earthquake analysis. Based on the geometrical, hydrological and geotechnical data, Seepage and slope stability analysis of different proposed geometries of the dam are carried out along with the Seismic analysis. A rigorous analysis was carried out in 2-D limit equilibrium using finite element analysis. The seismic study began with the static analysis, continuing by the dynamic response analysis. The seismic analyses permitted evaluation of the overall patterns of the Latamber dam behavior in terms of displacements, stress, strain, and acceleration fields. Similarly, the seepage analysis allows evaluation of seepage through the foundation and embankment of the dam, while slope stability analysis estimates the factor of safety of the upstream and downstream of the dam. The results of the analysis demonstrate that among multiple geometries, Latamber dam is secure against seepage piping failure and slope stability (upstream and downstream) failure. Moreover, the dam is safe against any dynamic loading and no liquefaction has been observed while changing its geometry in permissible limits.

Keywords: earth-fill dam, finite element, liquefaction, seepage analysis

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Authors: Mariam Arif

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The objective of the current study is to find out the electoral violence against women and its implications on their political participation. This paper is a qualitative study to get an in-depth analysis of the phenomenon. This study used questionnaires and interviews for findings. This paper attempts to study electoral violence and women in politics in Pakistan. The study concluded that women are subjected to different categories of violence defined as physical violence that involves sexual and bodily harm to a politically active woman or to people associated with her. Social and psychological violence includes class difference, stress, social limitations, family pressure and character assassination. Economic violence is defined as a systematic restriction of access to economic resources available to women thus hinder women active participation in politics (elections). All these violence against women in elections are threat to the integrity of the electoral process of the country that eventually affects women’s participation as voters, party candidates, election officials and political party leaders. It also undermines the free and fair democratic process. This qualitative paper shows a significant negative relationship between electoral violence and women participation in politics.

Keywords: elections, politics, violence, women

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Authors: Deniz Peksen

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This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

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Authors: Hafiz Usama Imad, Muhammad Akram Akhund, Tauha Hussain Ali, Ali Raza Khoso, Fida Hussain Siddiqui

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Construction industry plays a significant role in fulfilling the major requirements of the human being. It is one of the major constituents of every developed country. Although the construction industry of both the developing and developed countries encompasses a major part of the economy, and millions of rupees are utilized every year on various kinds of construction projects. But, this industry is facing numerous hurdles in terms of its budget and timely completion. Construction projects generally consist of several phases like planning, designing, execution, and finishing. This research study aims to determine the significant factors of time overrun in pre-construction planning (PCP) phase of construction projects in Pakistan. Questionnaires were distributed by various means and responses of respondents were compiled and collected data were then analyzed through a statistical technique using SPSS version 24. Major causes of time overrun in pre-construction planning phase; which is an extremely important phase of construction projects, were revealed. The research conclusion will provide a pathway for stakeholders to pay attention to the mentioned causes to overcome the major issue of time overrun.

Keywords: construction industry, Pakistan, pre-construction planning phase, time overrun

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Authors: Hteya Vamsa

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This research aimed to investigate ethical leadership development in an organization, how it can transform an organization effectively and its advantages so the organization can improve and be innovative in the future. The study was designed as documentary research and is focused on ethical leadership and ethical development within organizations, especially in the Western part of Myanmar, in Rakhine state, to achieve sustainable growth with peace and stability in the long term. Moral leadership was one of the main factors in bringing positive change to the organization. However, if there is no ethical leadership in the organization, they will not be able to change in the direction they desire and could experience negative change instead. Ethical leadership is related to considerate behavior, honesty, trust in leadership, interactional fairness, and socialized charismatic leadership. Even though there are many kinds of leadership and ethics, all are based on people is thinking; ethical leaders think logically, critically, and ethically, with no intention to harm others. Otherwise, to be active, vital players, leaders need to attend capacity-building classes, workshops, seminars, and conferences that ensure learning and promote leadership qualities. They should also participate in mental training classes, just like mindfulness meditation. Leaders are the driving force, whether his or her society develops or not. So, leaders need to possess ethical leadership, clear mental qualities, and competence in the 21st century.

Keywords: leadership, ethical development, organization, Ethic

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Authors: Amna Ali Al-Saadi, Riken Homma, Kazuhisa Iki

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Despite the fact that many places have successes in achieving some aspects of sustainable urban development, there are no scientific facts to convince decision makers. Also, each of them was developed to fulfill the need of specific city only. Therefore, objective method to generate the solutions from a successful case is the aim of this research. The questions were: how to learn the lesson from each case study; how to distinguish the potential criteria and negative one; snd how to quantify their effects in the future development. Walkability has been selected as a goal. This is because it has been found as a solution to achieve healthy life style as well as social, environmental and economic sustainability. Moreover, it has complication as every aspect of sustainable development. This research is stand on quantitative- comparative methodology in order to assess pedestrian oriented development. Three analyzed area (AAs) were selected. One site is located in Oman in which hypotheses as motorized oriented development, while two sites are in Japan where the development is pedestrian friendly. The study used Multi- criteria evaluation method (MCEM). Initially, MCEM stands on analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The later was structured into main goal (walkability), objectives (functions and layout) and attributes (the urban form criteria). Secondly, the GIS were used to evaluate the attributes in multi-criteria maps. Since each criterion has different scale of measurement, all results were standardized by z-score and used to measure the co-relations among criteria. As results, different scenario was generated from each AA. MCEM (AHP-OWA)-GIS measured the walkability score and determined the priority of criteria development in the non-walker friendly environment. The comparison criteria for z-score presented a measurable distinguished orientation of development. This result has been used to prove that Oman is motorized environment while Japan is walkable. Also, it defined the powerful criteria and week criteria regardless to the AA. This result has been used to generalize the priority for walkable development. In conclusion, the method was found successful in generate scientific base for policy decisions.

Keywords: walkability, policy decisions, sustainable development, GIS

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Authors: Pengcheng Xiang Jr., Xueqing Sun, Dong Ngoduy

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In the context of rapid urbanization, urban sprawl has brought about extensive negative impacts on ecosystems and the environment, resulting in a gradual shift from "incremental growth" to ‘stock growth’ in cities. A detailed urban growth boundary is a prerequisite for urban renewal and management. This study takes Shenyang City, China, as the study area and evaluates the spatial distribution of urban spatial suitability in the study area from the perspective of spatial constraints-suitability using multi-source data and simulates the future rigid and elastic growth boundaries of the city in the study area using the CA-Markov model. The results show that (1) the suitable construction area and moderate construction area in the study area account for 8.76% and 19.01% of the total area, respectively, and the suitable construction area and moderate construction area show a trend of distribution from the urban centre to the periphery, mainly in Shenhe District, the southern part of Heping District, the western part of Dongling District, and the central part of Dadong District; (2) the area of expansion of construction land in the study area in the period of 2023-2030 is 153274.6977hm2, accounting for 44.39% of the total area of the study area; (3) the rigid boundary of the study area occupies an area of 153274.6977 hm2, accounting for 44.39% of the total area of the study area, and the elastic boundary of the study area contains an area of 75362.61 hm2, accounting for 21.69% of the total area of the study area. The study constructed a method for urban growth boundary delineation, which helps to apply remote sensing to guide future urban spatial growth management and urban renewal.

Keywords: urban growth boundary, spatial constraints, spatial suitability, urban sprawl

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Authors: Donald Wright

Abstract:

The ultimate goal of this study is to reinvigorate the philosophical underpinnings the study of urbanization with scientific data with the goal of circumventing what seems an inevitable future clash between rural and urban populations. To that end urban infrastructure must be sustainable economically, politically and ecologically over the course of several generations as cities continue to grow with the incorporation of climate refugees. Our research will provide data concerning the projected increase in population over the coming two decades in Morocco, and the population will shift from rural areas to urban centers during that period of time. As a result, urban infrastructure will need to be adapted, developed or built to fit the demand of future internal migrations from rural to urban centers in Morocco. This paper will also examine how past experiences of internally displaced people give insight into the challenges faced by future migrants and, beyond the gathering of data, how people react to internal migration. This study employs four different sets of research tools. First, a large part of this study is archival, which involves compiling the relevant literature on the topic and its complex history. This step also includes gathering data bout migrations in Morocco from public data sources. Once the datasets are collected, the next part of the project involves populating the attribute fields and preprocessing the data to make it understandable and usable by machine learning algorithms. In tandem with the mathematical interpretation of data and projected migrations, this study benefits from a theoretical understanding of the critical apparatus existing around urban development of the 20th and 21st centuries that give us insight into past infrastructure development and the rationale behind it. Once the data is ready to be analyzed, different machine learning algorithms will be experimented (k-clustering, support vector regression, random forest analysis) and the results compared for visualization of the data. The final computational part of this study involves analyzing the data and determining what we can learn from it. This paper helps us to understand future trends of population movements within and between regions of North Africa, which will have an impact on various sectors such as urban development, food distribution and water purification, not to mention the creation of public policy in the countries of this region. One of the strengths of this project is the multi-pronged and cross-disciplinary methodology to the research question, which enables an interchange of knowledge and experiences to facilitate innovative solutions to this complex problem. Multiple and diverse intersecting viewpoints allow an exchange of methodological models that provide fresh and informed interpretations of otherwise objective data.

Keywords: climate change, machine learning, migration, Morocco, urban development

Procedia PDF Downloads 156