Search results for: statistical process control

Authors: James M. Geidner

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Objective: The purpose of this meta-analysis was to examine the evidence for the effectiveness of exercise interventions on reducing metabolic components in children and/or adolescents diagnosed with Paediatric Metabolic Syndrome. Methods: A computerized search was made from four databases: PubMed, PsycInfo, SPORTDiscus, Cochrane Central Register. The analysis was restricted to children and adolescents with metabolic syndrome examining the effect of exercise interventions on metabolic components. Effect size and 95% confidence interval were calculated and the heterogeneity of the studies was estimated using Cochran’s Q-statistic and I2. Bias was assessed using multiple tools and statistical analyses. Results: Thirteen studies, consisting of 19 separate trials, were selected for the meta-analysis as they fulfilled the inclusion criteria (n=908). Exercise interventions resulted in decreased waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, fasting glucose, insulin resistance, triglycerides, and High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (HDL-C). Conclusions: This meta-analysis provides insights into the effectiveness of exercise interventions on markers of Paediatric Metabolic Syndrome in children and adolescents.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, syndrome x, pediatric, meta-analysis

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Authors: David P. Horton, Gary Lynch-Wood

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Western populations are aging, prone to various lifestyle health problems, and increasing their demand for health and social care services. This demand has created enormous fiscal and regulatory challenges. In response, government institutions have deployed strategies of behavior modification to encourage people to exercise greater personal responsibility over their health and care needs (i.e., welfare responsibilisation). Policy strategies are underpinned by the assumption that people if properly supported, will make better health and lifestyle selections. Not only does this absolve governments of the responsibility for meeting all health and care needs, but it also enables government institutions to assert fiscal control over welfare spending. Looking at the regulation of health and social care in the UK, the authors identify and outline a suite of regulatory tools that are designed to extract and manage the resources of health and social care services users and to encourage them to make (‘better’) use of these resources. This is important for our understanding of how health and social care regulation is responding to ongoing social and economic challenges. It is also important because there has been a failure to systematically examine the relevance of resources for regulation, which is surprising given that resources are crucial to how and whether regulation succeeds or fails. In particular, drawing from the regulatory welfare state concept, the authors analyse the key legal and regulatory changes and mechanisms that have been introduced since the 2008 financial crisis, focusing on critical measures such as the Health and Social Care Act and regulations introduced under the National Health Service Act. The authors show how three types of user resources (i.e., tangible, labor, and data) are being used to assert fiscal control and increase welfare responsibilisation. Amongst other things, the paper concludes that service users have become more than rule followers and targets of behavioral modification; rather, they are producers of resources that regulatory systems have come to rely on.

Keywords: health care, regulation, resources, social care

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Authors: Phanida Phukoetphim, Asaad Y. Shamseldin

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In this study, the novel Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB) combination method is addressed for producing daily river flows from four different rain-runoff models of Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The selected rainfall-runoff models are two empirical black-box models: linear perturbation model and linear varying gain factor model, two conceptual models: soil moisture accounting and routing model and Nedbør-Afrstrømnings model. In this study, the simple average combination method and the weighted average combination method were used as a benchmark for comparing the results of the novel SGB combination method. The models and combination results are evaluated using statistical and graphical criteria. Overall results of this study show that the use of combination technique can certainly improve the simulated river flows of four selected models for Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The results also indicate that the novel SGB combination method is capable of accurate prediction when used in a combination method of the simulated river flows in New Zealand.

Keywords: multi-model combination, rainfall-runoff modeling, stochastic gradient boosting, bioinformatics

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Authors: V. Saccà, A. Sarica, F. Novellino, S. Barone, T. Tallarico, E. Filippelli, A. Granata, P. Valentino, A. Quattrone

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The work aim was to evaluate how well Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms could support the early diagnosis of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) from resting-state functional connectivity data. In particular, we wanted to explore the ability in distinguishing between controls and patients of mean signals extracted from ICA components corresponding to 15 well-known networks. Eighteen patients with early-MS (mean-age 37.42±8.11, 9 females) were recruited according to McDonald and Polman, and matched for demographic variables with 19 healthy controls (mean-age 37.55±14.76, 10 females). MRI was acquired by a 3T scanner with 8-channel head coil: (a)whole-brain T1-weighted; (b)conventional T2-weighted; (c)resting-state functional MRI (rsFMRI), 200 volumes. Estimated total lesion load (ml) and number of lesions were calculated using LST-toolbox from the corrected T1 and FLAIR. All rsFMRIs were pre-processed using tools from the FMRIB's Software Library as follows: (1) discarding of the first 5 volumes to remove T1 equilibrium effects, (2) skull-stripping of images, (3) motion and slice-time correction, (4) denoising with high-pass temporal filter (128s), (5) spatial smoothing with a Gaussian kernel of FWHM 8mm. No statistical significant differences (t-test, p < 0.05) were found between the two groups in the mean Euclidian distance and the mean Euler angle. WM and CSF signal together with 6 motion parameters were regressed out from the time series. We applied an independent component analysis (ICA) with the GIFT-toolbox using the Infomax approach with number of components=21. Fifteen mean components were visually identified by two experts. The resulting z-score maps were thresholded and binarized to extract the mean signal of the 15 networks for each subject. Statistical and machine learning analysis were then conducted on this dataset composed of 37 rows (subjects) and 15 features (mean signal in the network) with R language. The dataset was randomly splitted into training (75%) and test sets and two different classifiers were trained: RF and RBF-SVM. We used the intrinsic feature selection of RF, based on the Gini index, and recursive feature elimination (rfe) for the SVM, to obtain a rank of the most predictive variables. Thus, we built two new classifiers only on the most important features and we evaluated the accuracies (with and without feature selection) on test-set. The classifiers, trained on all the features, showed very poor accuracies on training (RF:58.62%, SVM:65.52%) and test sets (RF:62.5%, SVM:50%). Interestingly, when feature selection by RF and rfe-SVM were performed, the most important variable was the sensori-motor network I in both cases. Indeed, with only this network, RF and SVM classifiers reached an accuracy of 87.5% on test-set. More interestingly, the only misclassified patient resulted to have the lowest value of lesion volume. We showed that, with two different classification algorithms and feature selection approaches, the best discriminant network between controls and early MS, was the sensori-motor I. Similar importance values were obtained for the sensori-motor II, cerebellum and working memory networks. These findings, in according to the early manifestation of motor/sensorial deficits in MS, could represent an encouraging step toward the translation to the clinical diagnosis and prognosis.

Keywords: feature selection, machine learning, multiple sclerosis, random forest, support vector machine

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Authors: Malika Imoula, Rachid Saci, Renee Gatignol

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A numerical investigation is carried out to analyze vortex flows in a free surface cylinder, driven by the independent rotation and differentially heated boundaries. As a basic uncontrolled isothermal flow, we consider configurations which exhibit steady axisymmetric toroidal type vortices which occur at the free surface; under given rates of the bottom disk uniform rotation and for selected aspect ratios of the enclosure. In the isothermal case, we show that sidewall differential rotation constitutes an effective kinematic means of flow control: the reverse flow regions may be suppressed under very weak co-rotation rates, while an enhancement of the vortex patterns is remarked under weak counter-rotation. However, in this latter case, high rates of counter-rotation reduce considerably the strength of the meridian flow and cause its confinement to a narrow layer on the bottom disk, while the remaining bulk flow is diffusion dominated and controlled by the sidewall rotation. The main control parameters in this case are the rotational Reynolds number, the cavity aspect ratio and the rotation rate ratio defined. Then, the study proceeded to consider the sensitivity of the vortex pattern, within the Boussinesq approximation, to a small temperature gradient set between the ambient fluid and an axial thin rod mounted on the cavity axis. Two additional parameters are introduced; namely, the Richardson number Ri and the Marangoni number Ma (or the thermocapillary Reynolds number). Results revealed that reducing the rod length induces the formation of on-axis bubbles instead of toroidal structures. Besides, the stagnation characteristics are significantly altered under the combined effects of buoyant-thermocapillary convection. Buoyancy, induced under sufficiently high Ri, was shown to predominate over the thermocapillay motion; causing the enhancement (suppression) of breakdown when the rod is warmer (cooler) than the ambient fluid. However, over small ranges of Ri, the sensitivity of the flow to surface tension gradients was clearly evidenced and results showed its full control over the occurrence and location of breakdown. In particular, detailed timewise evolution of the flow indicated that weak thermocapillary motion was sufficient to prevent the formation of toroidal patterns. These latter detach from the surface and undergo considerable size reduction while moving towards the bulk flow before vanishing. Further calculations revealed that the pattern reappears with increasing time as steady bubble type on the rod. However, in the absence of the central rod and also in the case of small rod length l, the flow evolved into steady state without any breakdown.

Keywords: buoyancy, cylinder, surface tension, toroidal vortex

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Authors: Ouafa Sakka, Henri Barki, Louise Cote

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Uncertainty and equivocality are defined in the information processing literature as two task characteristics that require different information processing responses from managers. As uncertainty often stems from a lack of information, addressing it is thought to require the collection of additional data. On the other hand, as equivocality stems from ambiguity and a lack of understanding of the task at hand, addressing it is thought to require rich communication between those involved. Past research has provided weak to moderate empirical support to these hypotheses. The present study contributes to this literature by defining uncertainty and equivocality at the project level and investigating their moderating effects on the association between several project information processing constructs and project performance. The information processing constructs considered are the amount of information collected by the project team, and the richness and frequency of formal communications among the team members to discuss the project’s follow-up reports. Data on 93 information system development (ISD) project managers was collected in a questionnaire survey and analyzed it via the Fisher Test for correlation differences. The results indicate that the highest project performance levels were observed in projects characterized by high uncertainty and low equivocality in which project managers were provided with detailed and updated information on project costs and schedules. In addition, our findings show that information about user needs and technical aspects of the project is less useful to managing projects where uncertainty and equivocality are high. Further, while the strongest positive effect of interactive use of follow-up reports on performance occurred in projects where both uncertainty and equivocality levels were high, its weakest effect occurred when both of these were low.

Keywords: uncertainty, equivocality, information processing model, management control systems, project control, interactive use, diagnostic use, information system development

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Authors: Piotr Tylec, Alicja Dudek, Grzegorz Torbicz, Magdalena Mizera, Natalia Gajewska, Michael Su, Tanawat Vongsurbchart, Tomasz Stefura, Magdalena Pisarska, Mateusz Rubinkiewicz, Piotr Malczak, Piotr Major, Michal Pedziwiatr

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Introduction: Quality of life after bariatric surgery is an important factor when evaluating the final result of the treatment. Considering the vast surgical options, we tried to globally compare available methods in terms of quality of following the surgery. The aim of the study is to compare the quality of life a year after bariatric intervention using network meta-analysis methods. Material and Methods: We performed a systematic review according to PRISMA guidelines with Bayesian network meta-analysis. Inclusion criteria were: studies comparing at least two methods of weight loss treatment of which at least one is surgical, assessment of the quality of life one year after surgery by validated questionnaires. Primary outcomes were quality of life one year after bariatric procedure. The following aspects of quality of life were analyzed: physical, emotional, general health, vitality, role physical, social, mental, and bodily pain. All questionnaires were standardized and pooled to a single scale. Lifestyle intervention was considered as a referenced point. Results: An initial reference search yielded 5636 articles. 18 studies were evaluated. In comparison of total score of quality of life, we observed that laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) (median (M): 3.606, Credible Interval 97.5% (CrI): 1.039; 6.191), laparoscopic Roux en-Y gastric by-pass (LRYGB) (M: 4.973, CrI: 2.627; 7.317) and open Roux en-Y gastric by-pass (RYGB) (M: 9.735, CrI: 6.708; 12.760) had better results than other bariatric intervention in relation to lifestyle interventions. In the analysis of the physical aspects of quality of life, we notice better results in LSG (M: 3.348, CrI: 0.548; 6.147) and in LRYGB procedure (M: 5.070, CrI: 2.896; 7.208) than control intervention, and worst results in open RYGB (M: -9.212, CrI: -11.610; -6.844). Analyzing emotional aspects, we found better results than control intervention in LSG, in LRYGB, in open RYGB, and laparoscopic gastric plication. In general health better results were in LSG (M: 9.144, CrI: 4.704; 13.470), in LRYGB (M: 6.451, CrI: 10.240; 13.830) and in single-anastomosis gastric by-pass (M: 8.671, CrI: 1.986; 15.310), and worst results in open RYGB (M: -4.048, CrI: -7.984; -0.305). In social and vital aspects of quality of life, better results were observed in LSG and LRYGB than control intervention. We did not find any differences between bariatric interventions in physical role, mental and bodily aspects of quality of life. Conclusion: The network meta-analysis revealed that better quality of life in total score one year after bariatric interventions were after LSG, LRYGB, open RYGB. In physical and general health aspects worst quality of life was in open RYGB procedure. Other interventions did not significantly affect the quality of life after a year compared to dietary intervention.

Keywords: bariatric surgery, network meta-analysis, quality of life, one year follow-up

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Authors: Yogi Wibisono Budhi, Ferry Iskandar, Veinardi Suendo, Muhammad Fakhrudin, Neng Tresna Umi Culsum

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Oil palm empty fruit bunch (OPEFB), an abundant agro-waste in Indonesia, is being studied as raw material of Cellulose Nanocrystals (CNC) synthesis. Instead of conventional acid mineral, phosphotungstic acid (H₃PW₁₂O₄₀, HPW) was used to hydrolyze cellulose due to recycling ability and easy handling. Before hydrolysis process, dried EFB was treated by 4% NaOH solution at 90oC for 2 hours and then bleached using 2% NaClO₂ solution at 80oC for 3 hours to remove hemicellulose and lignin. Hydrolysis reaction parameters such as temperature, acid concentration, and reaction time were optimized with fixed solid-liquid ratio of 1:40. Response surface method was used for experimental design to determine the optimum condition of each parameter. HPW was extracted from the mixed solution and recycled with diethyl ether. CNC was separated from the solution by centrifuging and washing with distilled water and ethanol to remove degraded sugars and unreacted celluloses. In this study, pulp from dried EFB produced 44.8% yield of CNC. Dynamic Light Scattering (DLS) analysis showed that most of CNC equivalent diameter was 140 nm. Crystallinity index was observed at 73.3% using X-ray Diffraction (XRD) analysis. Thus, a green established process for the preparation of CNC was achieved.

Keywords: acid hydrolysis, cellulose nanocrystals, oil palm empty fruit bunch, phosphotungstic acid

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Authors: E. A. Alaswad, H. M. Choudhry, F. Z. Filimban

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Sickle Cell Anemia (SCA) is one type of blood diseases related to autosomal disorder. The sickle shaped red blood cells are the main cause of many problems in the blood vessels and capillaries. Aerva Javanica (J) and Ficus Palmata (P) are medicinal plants that have many popular uses and have been proved their efficacy. The aim of this study was to assess the antioxidants activity and the antisickling effect of J and P extractions. The period of this study, air-dried leaves of J, and P plants were ground and the active components were extracted by maceration in water (W) and methanol (M) as solvents. The antioxidants activity of JW, PW, JM, and PM were assessed by way of the radical scavenging method using 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH). To determine the antisickling effect of J and P extracts. 20 samples were collected from sickle cell anemia patients. Different concentrations of J and P extracts (200 and 110 μg/mL) were added on the sample and incubated. A drop of each sample was examined with light microscope. Normal and sickled RBCs were calculated and expressed as the percent of sickling. The stabilization effect of the extracts was measured by the osmotic fragility test for erythrocytes. The finding suggests as estimated by DPPH method, all the extracts showed an antioxidant activity with a significant inhibition of the DPPH radicals. PM has the least IC50% with 71.49 μg/ml while JM was the most with 408.49 μg/ml. Sickle cells treated with extracts at different concentrations significantly reduced the percentage of sickling compering to control samples. However, JM 200 μg/mL give the highest anti-sickling affect with 17.4% of sickling compared to control 67.5 of sickling while PM at 200 μg/mL showed the highest membrane cell stability. In a conclusion, the results showed that J and P extracts have antisickling effects. Therefore, the Aerva javanica and Ficus palmata may have a role in SCA management and a good impact on the patient's lives.

Keywords: Aerva javanica, antioxidant, antisickling, Ficus palmata, sickle cell anemia

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Authors: A. Ghribi, M. Bagane

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The discharge of dye in industrial effluents is of great concern because their presence and accumulation have a toxic or carcinogenic effect on living species. The removals of such compounds at such low levels are a difficult problem. Physicochemical technique such as coagulation, flocculation, ozonation, reverse osmosis and adsorption on activated carbon, manganese oxide, silica gel and clay are among the methods employed. The adsorption process is an effective and attractive proposition for the treatment of dye contaminated wastewater. Activated carbon adsorption in fixed beds is a very common technology in the treatment of water and especially in processes of decolouration. However, it is expensive and the powdered one is difficult to be separated from aquatic system when it becomes exhausted or the effluent reaches the maximum allowable discharge level. The regeneration of exhausted activated carbon by chemical and thermal procedure is also expensive and results in loss of the sorbent. Dye molecules also have very high affinity for clay surfaces and are readily adsorbed when added to clay suspension. The elimination of the organic dye by clay was studied by serval researchers. The focus of this research was to evaluate the adsorption potential of the raw clay in removing congo red from aqueous solutions using a laboratory fixed-bed column. The continuous sorption process was conducted in this study in order to simulate industrial conditions. The effect of process parameters, such as inlet flow rate, adsorbent bed height and initial adsorbate concentration on the shape of breakthrough curves was investigated. A glass column with an internal diameter of 1.5 cm and height of 30 cm was used as a fixed-bed column. The pH of feed solution was set at 7.Experiments were carried out at different bed heights (5-20 cm), influent flow rates (1.6- 8 mL/min) and influent congo red concentrations (10-50 mg/L). The obtained results showed that the adsorption capacity increases with the bed depth and the initial concentration and it decreases at higher flow rate. The column regeneration was possible for four adsorption–desorption cycles. The clay column study states the value of the excellent adsorption capacity for the removal of congo red from aqueous solution. Uptake of congo red through a fixed-bed column was dependent on the bed depth, influent congo red concentration and flow rate.

Keywords: adsorption, breakthrough curve, clay, congo red, fixed bed column, regeneration

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Authors: David A. Ullisch, Yantree D. Sankar-Thomas, Stefan Wilke, Thomas Selge, Matthias Pump, Thomas Leibold, Kai Schütte, Gilbert Gorr

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Plants have been considered as a source of natural substances for ages. Secondary metabolites from plants are utilized especially in medical applications but are more and more interesting as cosmetical ingredients and in the field of nutraceuticals. However, supply of compounds from natural harvest can be limited by numerous factors i.e. endangered species, low product content, climate impacts and cost intensive extraction. Especially in the pharmaceutical industry the ability to provide sufficient amounts of product and high quality are additional requirements which in some cases are difficult to fulfill by plant harvest. Whereas in many cases the complexity of secondary metabolites precludes chemical synthesis on a reasonable commercial basis, plant cells contain the biosynthetic pathway – a natural chemical factory – for a given compound. A promising approach for the sustainable production of natural products can be plant cell fermentation (PCF®). A thoroughly accomplished development process comprises the identification of a high producing cell line, optimization of growth and production conditions, the development of a robust and reliable production process and its scale-up. In order to address persistent, long lasting production, development of cryopreservation protocols and generation of working cell banks is another important requirement to be considered. So far the most prominent example using a PCF® process is the production of the anticancer compound paclitaxel. To demonstrate the power of plant suspension cultures here we present three case studies: 1) For more than 17 years Phyton produces paclitaxel at industrial scale i.e. up to 75,000 L in scale. With 60 g/kg dw this fully controlled process which is applied according to GMP results in outstanding high yields. 2) Thapsigargin is another anticancer compound which is currently isolated from seeds of Thapsia garganica. Thapsigargin is a powerful cytotoxin – a SERCA inhibitor – and the precursor for the derivative ADT, the key ingredient of the investigational prodrug Mipsagargin (G-202) which is in several clinical trials. Phyton successfully generated plant cell lines capable to express this compound. Here we present data about the screening for high producing cell lines. 3) The third case study covers ingenol-3-mebutate. This compound is found in the milky sap of the intact plants of the Euphorbiacae family at very low concentrations. Ingenol-3-mebutate is used in Picato® which is approved against actinic keratosis. Generation of cell lines expressing significant amounts of ingenol-3-mebutate is another example underlining the strength of plant cell culture. The authors gratefully acknowledge Inspyr Therapeutics for funding.

Keywords: Ingenol-3-mebutate, plant cell culture, sustainability, thapsigargin

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Authors: Bahareh Yazdanparast Chaharmahali

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The study showed effect of low power laser therapy on knee range of motion (flexion and extension), resting angle of knee joint, knee circumference and rating of delayed onset muscle soreness induced pain, 24 and 48 hours after eccentric training of knee flexor muscle (hamstring muscle). We investigate the effects of pulsed ultrasound on swelling, relaxed, flexion and extension knee angle and pain. 20 volunteers among girl students of college voluntary participated in this research. After eccentric training, subjects were randomly divided into two groups, control and laser therapy. In day 1 and in order to induce delayed onset muscle soreness, subjects eccentrically trained their knee flexor muscles. In day 2, subjects were randomly divided into two groups: control and low power laser therapy. 24 and 48 hours after eccentric training. Variables (knee flexion and extension, srang of motion, resting knee joint angle and knee circumferences) were measured and analyzed. Data are reported as means ± standard error (SE) and repeated measured was used to assess differences within groups. Methods of treatment (low power laser therapy) have significant effects on delayed onset muscle soreness markers. 24 and 48 hours after training a significant difference was observed between mean pains of 2 groups. This difference was significant between low power laser therapy and C groups. The Bonferroni post hock is significant. Low power laser therapy trophy as used in this study did significantly diminish the effects of delayed – onset muscle soreness on swelling, relaxed – knee extension and flexion angle.

Keywords: creatine kinase, DOMS, eccentric training, low power laser

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Authors: Sepehr Moradi, Mehdi Asadi Rad

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This study is to evaluate the live weight of adult pigeons to investigate about their sex, race, their mutual effects and some auxiliary variables in 4 races of Kabood, Tizpar, Parvazy, and Namebar. In this paper, 152 pieces of pigeons as 76 male and female pairs with equal age are studied randomly. Then the birds were weighted by a scale with one gram precision. Software was used for statistical analysis. Mean live weight of adult male and female pigeons in 4 races (Kabood, Tizpar, Parvazy and Namebar with (15, 20, 20, 21) and (20, 21, 18, 17) records were, (530±56, 388.75±32, 392±34, 552±48) and (446±34, 342±32, 341±46, 457±57) gr, respectively. Difference weight of adult live of male with female was significant in 1% level (P < 0.01). Difference live weight of male adult pigeon was significant in 5% level (P < 0.05). Different live weight of female adult pigeon between Kabood, Parvazy and Tizpar races were significant in 5% level (P < 0.05) but mean live weight Kabood race with Namebar race and Parvazy with Tizpar were not significant. The results showed that most and least mean live weights belonged to Namebar of the male pigeon race and Parvazy of the female pigeon race.

Keywords: Iranian Native Pigeons, adult weight, live weight, adult pigeons

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Authors: Ruma Rano, Firoza Sultana, Bishal Bhuyan, Nurul Alam Mazumder

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Fly ash collected from Cachar Paper Mill, Assam, India has been thoroughly characterized in respect of its physico-chemical, morphological and mineralogical features were concerned by using density, LOI, FTIR, XRD, SEM-EDS etc. The results reveal that there is a striking difference in the features and properties of the coarser and finer fractions .The high carbon ash consists of large unburnt carbon (chars), irregular carbonaceous particles in the coarser fraction, which appear to be porous and may be used as domestic fuel. The percentage of char albeit the carbon content decreases with decrease in size of particles. The various fractions essentially contain quartz and mullite as the main mineral phases. For suggesting the potential utilization channels, number of experiments were performed correlating the total characteristic features. Water holding capacities of different size classified fractions were determined, the coarser fractions have unexpectedly higher water holding capacities than the finer ones. An attempt has been made to correlate the results obtained with potential use in agriculture. Another potential application of coarser particles is used as adsorbent for effluents containing waste organic materials. Thus thorough characterization leads to not only a definite direction about the uses of the value added components but also gives useful information regarding the prevailing combustion process.

Keywords: chars, porous, water holding capacity, combustion process

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Authors: Abhijeet Ostawal, Parmjit Lall

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The run times for a large strategic model that we were managing had become too long leading to delays in project delivery, increased costs and loss in productivity. Software developers are continuously working towards developing more efficient tools by changing their algorithms and processes. The issue faced by our team was how do you apply the latest technologies on validated existing models which are based on much older versions of software that do not have the latest software capabilities. The multi-model transport model that we had could only be run in sequential assignment order. Recent upgrades to the software now allowed the assignment to be run in parallel, a concept called parallelization. Parallelization is a Python script working only within the latest version of the software. A full model transfer to the latest version was not possible due to time, budget and the potential changes in trip assignment. This article is to show the method to adapt and update the Python script in such a way that it can be used in older software versions by calling the latest version and then recalling the old version for assignment model without affecting the results. Through a process of trial-and-error run time savings of up to 30-40% have been achieved. Assignment results were maintained within the older version and through this learning process we’ve applied this methodology to other even older versions of the software resulting in huge time savings, more productivity and efficiency for both client and consultant.

Keywords: model run time, demand model, parallelisation, python scripting

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Authors: Farhad Asadi, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Aref Ghafouri

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Recent research in neural networks science and neuroscience for modeling complex time series data and statistical learning has focused mostly on learning from high input space and signals. Local linear models are a strong choice for modeling local nonlinearity in data series. Locally weighted projection regression is a flexible and powerful algorithm for nonlinear approximation in high dimensional signal spaces. In this paper, different learning scenario of one and two dimensional data series with different distributions are investigated for simulation and further noise is inputted to data distribution for making different disordered distribution in time series data and for evaluation of algorithm in locality prediction of nonlinearity. Then, the performance of this algorithm is simulated and also when the distribution of data is high or when the number of data is less the sensitivity of this approach to data distribution and influence of important parameter of local validity in this algorithm with different data distribution is explained.

Keywords: local nonlinear estimation, LWPR algorithm, online training method, locally weighted projection regression method

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Authors: Allyson Dale, Max Hlywa

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The Canadian public expects the highest moral standards from Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) members and Department of National Defence (DND) employees. The Chief, Professional Conduct and Culture (CPCC) stood up in April 2021 with the mission of ensuring that the defence culture and members’ conduct are aligned with the ethical principles and values that the organization aspires towards. The Defence Ethics Program (DEP), which stood up in 1997, is a values-based ethics program for individuals and organizations within the DND/CAF and now falls under CPCC. The DEP is divided into five key functional areas, including policy, communications, collaboration, training and education, and advice and guidance. The main focus of the DEP is to foster an ethical culture within defence so that members and organizations perform to the highest ethical standards. The measurement of organizational ethics is often complex and challenging. In order to monitor whether the DEP is achieving its intended outcomes, a performance measurement framework (PMF) was developed using the Director General Military Personnel Research and Analysis (DGMPRA) PMF development process. This evidence-based process is based on subject-matter expertise from the defence team. The goal of this presentation is to describe each stage of the DGMPRA PMF development process and to present and discuss the products of the DEP PMF (e.g., logic model). Specifically, first, a strategic framework was developed to provide a high-level overview of the strategic objectives, mission, and vision of the DEP. Next, Key Performance Questions were created based on the objectives in the strategic framework. A logic model detailing the activities, outputs (what is produced by the program activities), and intended outcomes of the program were developed to demonstrate how the program works. Finally, Key Performance Indicators were developed based on both the intended outcomes in the logic model and the Key Performance Questions in order to monitor program effectiveness. The Key Performance Indicators measure aspects of organizational ethics such as ethical conduct and decision-making, DEP collaborations, and knowledge and awareness of the Defence Ethics Code while leveraging ethics-related items from multiple DGMPRA surveys where appropriate.

Keywords: defence ethics, ethical culture, organizational performance, performance measurement framework

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Authors: Pornpimol Chaiwuttisak

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The study aims to compare the performance of the logistics for Thailand’s wholesale and retail trade industries (except motor vehicles, motorcycle, and stalls) by using data (data envelopment analysis). Thailand Standard Industrial Classification in 2009 (TSIC - 2009) categories that industries into sub-group no. 45: wholesale and retail trade (except for the repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles), sub-group no. 46: wholesale trade (except motor vehicles and motorcycles), and sub-group no. 47: retail trade (except motor vehicles and motorcycles. Data used in the study is collected by the National Statistical Office, Thailand. The study consisted of four input factors include the number of companies, the number of personnel in logistics, the training cost in logistics, and outsourcing logistics management. Output factor includes the percentage of enterprises having inventory management. The results showed that the average relative efficiency of small-sized enterprises equals to 27.87 percent and 49.68 percent for the medium-sized enterprises.

Keywords: DEA, wholesales and retails, logistics, Thailand

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Authors: Liqun Zou, Ling Wang, Xiaoli Chen

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Objective: Through the questionnaire about emergency nurses’ knowledge and attitudes regarding pain management to understand whether they are well mastered and practiced the related knowledge about pain management, providing a reference for continuous improvement of the quality of nursing care in acute pain and for improving the effect of management on emergency pain patients. Method: The Chinese version questionnaire about KASRP (knowledge and attitudes survey regarding pain) was handed out to 132 emergency nurses to do a study about the knowledge and attitude of pain management. Meanwhile, SPSS17.0 was used to do a descriptive analysis and variance analysis on collected data. Results: The emergency nurses’ correct answer rate about KASRP questionnaire is from 25% to 65% and the average correct rate is (44.65 + 7.85)%. In addition, there are 10 to 26 items being given the right answer. Therefore, the average correct items are (17.86 ± 3.14). Moreover, there is no statistical significant on the differences about the correct rate for different age, gender and work experience to answer; however, the difference of the correct rate in different education background and the professional title is significant. Conclusion: There is a remarkable lack of knowledge and attitude towards pain management in emergency nurses, whose basic knowledge of pain is sufficient. Besides, there is a deviation between the knowledge of pain management and clinical practice, which needs to be improved.

Keywords: emergency nurse, pain, KASRP questionnaire, pain management

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Authors: Ugur Fidan, Naim Karasekreter

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Healthy and clean water should not contain disease-causing micro-organisms and toxic chemicals and must contain the necessary minerals in a balanced manner. Today, water resources have a limited and strategic importance, necessitating the management of water reserves. Water tanks meet the water needs of people and should be regularly chlorinated to prevent waterborne diseases. For this purpose, automatic chlorination systems placed in water tanks for killing bacteria. However, the regular operation of automatic chlorination systems depends on refilling the chlorine tank when it is empty. For this reason, there is a need for a stock control system, in which chlorine levels are regularly monitored and supplied. It has become imperative to take urgent measures against epidemics caused by the fact that most of our country is not aware of the end of chlorine. The aim of this work is to rehabilitate existing water tanks and to provide a method for a modern water storage system in which chlorination is digitally monitored by turning the newly established water tanks into a closed system. A sensor network structure using GSM/GPRS communication infrastructure has been developed in the study. The system consists of two basic units: hardware and software. The hardware includes a chlorine level sensor, an RFID interlock system for authorized personnel entry into water tank, a motion sensor for animals and other elements, and a camera system to ensure process safety. It transmits the data from the hardware sensors to the host server software via the TCP/IP protocol. The main server software processes the incoming data through the security algorithm and informs the relevant unit responsible (Security forces, Chlorine supply unit, Public health, Local Administrator) by e-mail and SMS. Since the software is developed base on the web, authorized personnel are also able to monitor drinking water tank and report data on the internet. When the findings and user feedback obtained as a result of the study are evaluated, it is shown that closed drinking water tanks are built with GRP type material, and continuous monitoring in digital environment is vital for sustainable health water supply for people.

Keywords: wireless sensor networks (WSN), monitoring, chlorine, water tank, security

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Authors: Klaus Peter Scherer, Daniel Knöll, Constantin Rieder

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Problem and Purpose: Intelligent systems are available and helpful to support the human being decision process, especially when complex surgical eye interventions are necessary and must be performed. Normally, such a decision support system consists of a knowledge-based module, which is responsible for the real assistance power, given by an explanation and logical reasoning processes. The interview based acquisition and generation of the complex knowledge itself is very crucial, because there are different correlations between the complex parameters. So, in this project (semi)automated self-learning methods are researched and developed for an enhancement of the quality of such a decision support system. Methods: For ophthalmic data sets of real patients in a hospital, advanced data mining procedures seem to be very helpful. Especially subgroup analysis methods are developed, extended and used to analyze and find out the correlations and conditional dependencies between the structured patient data. After finding causal dependencies, a ranking must be performed for the generation of rule-based representations. For this, anonymous patient data are transformed into a special machine language format. The imported data are used as input for algorithms of conditioned probability methods to calculate the parameter distributions concerning a special given goal parameter. Results: In the field of knowledge discovery advanced methods and applications could be performed to produce operation and patient related correlations. So, new knowledge was generated by finding causal relations between the operational equipment, the medical instances and patient specific history by a dependency ranking process. After transformation in association rules logically based representations were available for the clinical experts to evaluate the new knowledge. The structured data sets take account of about 80 parameters as special characteristic features per patient. For different extended patient groups (100, 300, 500), as well one target value as well multi-target values were set for the subgroup analysis. So the newly generated hypotheses could be interpreted regarding the dependency or independency of patient number. Conclusions: The aim and the advantage of such a semi-automatically self-learning process are the extensions of the knowledge base by finding new parameter correlations. The discovered knowledge is transformed into association rules and serves as rule-based representation of the knowledge in the knowledge base. Even more, than one goal parameter of interest can be considered by the semi-automated learning process. With ranking procedures, the most strong premises and also conjunctive associated conditions can be found to conclude the interested goal parameter. So the knowledge, hidden in structured tables or lists can be extracted as rule-based representation. This is a real assistance power for the communication with the clinical experts.

Keywords: an expert system, knowledge-based support, ophthalmic decision support, self-learning methods

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Authors: Muhammad Sohail Sajid, Mahvish Maqbool, Hafiz Muhammad Rizwan, Muhammad Saqib, Haroon Ahmad

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Ticks are blood-sucking ectoparasite that causes a decrease in production and economic losses and affects mammals, reptiles, and birds. Hyalomma anatolicum is the main vector for CCHF transmission and Pakistan has faced several outbreaks of CCHF in the recent past. Ferritin (fer)is a highly conserved molecule that is ubiquitous in most tick tissues and responsible for iron metabolism and storage. It was hypothesized that the development of acaricidal resistance and residual effects of commercially used acaricides could be controlled by using alternative control methods, including RNA interference. The current study aimed to evaluate the fer silencing effects on tick feeding, average body weight, egg mass index, and mortality. Ticks, collected through the standard collection protocols were further subjected to RNA isolation using the Trizol method. Commercially available kit procedures were followed for cDNA and dsRNA synthesis. The soaking/Immersion method was used for dsRNA delivery. Our findings have shown a 27% reduction in body weight of fer silenced group and showed a significant association of fer and body weight. Silencing of fer had a significant effect on the engorgement percentage (P= 0.0007), oviposition (P=0.008), egg mass (P= 0.004) and hatching (P= 0.001). The soaking method was used for dsRNA delivery and 15°C was found to be an optimum temperature for inducing gene silencing in ticks as at this temperature, maximum survivability after immersion was attained. This study along with previous studies, described that iron toxicity due to the silencing of fer could play an important role in the control of ticks and fer can be used as a potent candidate for vaccine development.

Keywords: ticks, iron, ferritin, engorgement, oviposition, immersion, RNA interference

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Authors: María de los Ángeles Crespo López, Carmen García García

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The highly competitive nature of today's globalised marketplace requires that brands and stores develop effective commercial strategies to ensure their economic survival. Maintaining the loyalty of existing customers constitutes one key strategy that yields the best results. Although the relationship between consumers' self-congruity and their manifestations of loyalty towards a store has been investigated, the role of store personality in this relationship remains unclear. In this study, multiple parallel mediation analysis was used to examine the effect of Store Personality on the relationship between Self-Congruity of consumers and their Manifestations of Loyalty. For this purpose, 457 Spanish consumers of the Fnac store completed three self-report questionnaires assessing Store Personality, Self-Congruity, and Store Loyalty. The data were analyzed using the SPSS macro PROCESS. The results revealed that three dimensions of Store Personality, namely Exciting, Close and Competent Store, positively and significantly mediated the relationship between Self-Congruity and Manifestations of Loyalty. The indirect effect of Competent Store was the greatest. This means that a consumer with higher levels of Self-Congruity with the store will exhibit more Manifestations of Loyalty when the store is perceived as Exciting, Close or Competent. These findings suggest that more attention should be paid to the perceived personality of stores for the development of effective marketing strategies to maintain or increase consumers' manifestations of loyalty towards stores.

Keywords: multiple parallel mediation, PROCESS, self-congruence, store loyalty, store personality

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Authors: M. Ali Mandegari, S. Farzad, , J. F. Görgens

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Sugar is one of the main agricultural industries in South Africa and approximately livelihoods of one million South Africans are indirectly dependent on sugar industry which is economically struggling with some problems and should re-invent in order to ensure a long-term sustainability. Second generation biorefinery is defined as a process to use waste fibrous for the production of biofuel, chemicals animal food, and electricity. Bioethanol is by far the most widely used biofuel for transportation worldwide and many challenges in front of bioethanol production were solved. Biorefinery annexed to the existing sugar mill for production of bioethanol and electricity is proposed to sugar industry and is addressed in this study. Since flowsheet development is the key element of the bioethanol process, in this work, a biorefinery (bioethanol and electricity production) annexed to a typical South African sugar mill considering 65ton/h dry sugarcane bagasse and tops/trash as feedstock was simulated. Aspen PlusTM V8.6 was applied as simulator and realistic simulation development approach was followed to reflect the practical behaviour of the plant. Latest results of other researches considering pretreatment, hydrolysis, fermentation, enzyme production, bioethanol production and other supplementary units such as evaporation, water treatment, boiler, and steam/electricity generation units were adopted to establish a comprehensive biorefinery simulation. Steam explosion with SO2 was selected for pretreatment due to minimum inhibitor production and simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) configuration was adopted for enzymatic hydrolysis and fermentation of cellulose and hydrolyze. Bioethanol purification was simulated by two distillation columns with side stream and fuel grade bioethanol (99.5%) was achieved using molecular sieve in order to minimize the capital and operating costs. Also boiler and steam/power generation were completed using industrial design data. Results indicates that the annexed biorefinery can be self-energy sufficient when 35% of feedstock (tops/trash) bypass the biorefinery process and directly be loaded to the boiler to produce sufficient steam and power for sugar mill and biorefinery plant.

Keywords: biorefinery, self-energy sufficiency, tops/trash, bioethanol, electricity

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Authors: Abootaleb Shirvani, Svetlozar Rachev

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ESG stands for Environmental, Social, and Governance and is a non-financial factor that investors use to specify material risks and growth opportunities in their analysis process. ESG ratings provide a quantitative measure of socially responsible investment, and it is essential to incorporate ESG ratings when modeling the dynamics of asset returns. In this article, we propose a triple subordinated Lévy process for incorporating numeric ESG ratings into dynamic asset pricing theory to model the time series properties of the stock returns. The motivation for introducing three layers of subordinator is twofold. The first two layers of subordinator capture the skew and fat-tailed properties of the stock return distribution that cannot be explained well by the existing Lévy subordinated model. The third layer of the subordinator introduces ESG valuation and incorporates numeric ESG ratings into dynamic asset pricing theory and option pricing. We employ the triple subordinator Lévy model for developing the ESG-valued stock return model, derive the implied ESG score surfaces for Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon stock returns, and compare the shape of the ESG implied surface scores for these stocks.

Keywords: ESG scores, dynamic asset pricing theory, multiple subordinated modeling, Lévy processes, option pricing

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Authors: Usama Bin Zubair, Syed Azhar Ali

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Introduction: Depression is emerging as a major public health problem in all parts of the world. Developing countries have a unique socioeconomic structure that affects the lives of its inhabitants in several ways. Going abroad for employment is one of the common social problems which have been faced by young males in developing countries. This included both highly qualified individuals as well as the labor class. Objective: To determine the difference in the presence of depressive symptoms among pregnant women with husbands living abroad and those with husbands living with them in Azad Jammu and Kashmir. Methods: The sample population comprised of pregnant women reporting for an antenatal checkup at Amna hospital Rawalakot. Cases constituted the pregnant women with husbands living abroad while controls were the pregnant women with husbands living with them. Patient health questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) was used to record the presence and severity of depressive symptoms. Age, gestation, parity, rural or urban origin, education, level of family income, daily contact hours on the telephone or what’s app, previous pregnancy loss or complications, number of years abroad and visits to home per year were associated with the presence of depressive symptoms. Findings: The mean age of the study participants was 29.73 ±5.395 years. Sixty-six had significant depression in the case group, while 14 had in the control group (p-value<0.001). Education and rural background had a significant difference between the case and the control group. Less number of visits per year of the husband was strongly linked with the presence of depressive symptoms among the cases. Conclusion: Pregnant women with husbands abroad were found more prone to develop depressive symptoms as compared to those with husbands living with them. Special attention should be paid to the women whose husband had a lesser number of visits to the country.

Keywords: depression, pregnancy, lack of support, war zone

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Authors: Tienfuan Kerh, Hsienchang Lu, Rob Saunders

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Shoreline erosion problems caused by global warming and sea level rising may result in losing of land areas, so it should be examined regularly to reduce possible negative impacts. Initially in this study, three sets of survey images obtained from the years of 1990, 2001, and 2010, respectively, are digitalized by using graphical software to establish the spatial coordinates of six major beaches around the island of Taiwan. Then, by overlaying the known multi-period images, the change of shoreline can be observed from their distribution of coordinates. In addition, the neural network approximation is used to develop a model for predicting shoreline variation in the years of 2015 and 2020. The comparison results show that there is no significant change of total sandy area for all beaches in the three different periods. However, the prediction results show that two beaches may exhibit an increasing of total sandy areas under a statistical 95% confidence interval. The proposed method adopted in this study may be applicable to other shorelines of interest around the world.

Keywords: digitalized shoreline coordinates, survey image overlaying, neural network approximation, total beach sandy areas

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Authors: Alaa Al Hawari, Mohammad Khader, Wael El Hasan, Mahmoud Alijla, Ammar Manawi, Abdelbaki Benamour

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The production of aluminium alloys and ingots -starting from the processing of alumina to aluminium, and the final cast product- was studied using a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. The studied aluminium supply chain consisted of a carbon plant, a reduction plant, a casting plant, and a power plant. In the LCA model, the environmental loads of the different plants for the production of 1 ton of aluminium metal were investigated. The impact of the aluminium production was assessed in eight impact categories. The results showed that for all of the impact categories the power plant had the highest impact only in the cases of Human Toxicity Potential (HTP) the reduction plant had the highest impact and in the Marine Aquatic Eco-Toxicity Potential (MAETP) the carbon plant had the highest impact. Furthermore, the impact of the carbon plant and the reduction plant combined was almost the same as the impact of the power plant in the case of the Acidification Potential (AP). The carbon plant had a positive impact on the environment when it comes to the Eutrophication Potential (EP) due to the production of clean water in the process. The natural gas based power plant used in the case study had 8.4 times less negative impact on the environment when compared to the heavy fuel based power plant and 10.7 times less negative impact when compared to the hard coal based power plant.

Keywords: life cycle assessment, aluminium production, supply chain, ecological impacts

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Authors: Quynhan Tran, Hong Fan, Quockhanh Pham

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Automatic map generalization is a well-known problem in cartography. The development of map generalization research accompanied the development of cartography. The traditional map is plotted manually by cartographic experts. The paper studies none-scale automation generalization of resident polygons and house marker symbol, proposes methodology to evaluate the result maps based on minimal spanning tree. In this paper, the minimal spanning tree before and after map generalization is compared to evaluate whether the generalization result maintain the geographical distribution of features. The minimal spanning tree in vector format is firstly converted into a raster format and the grid size is 2mm (distance on the map). The statistical number of matching grid before and after map generalization and the ratio of overlapping grid to the total grids is calculated. Evaluation experiments are conduct to verify the results. Experiments show that this methodology can give an objective evaluation for the feature distribution and give specialist an hand while they evaluate result maps of none-scale automation generalization with their eyes.

Keywords: automatic cartography generalization, evaluation model, geographic feature distribution, minimal spanning tree

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Authors: Chaebong Kim, Yongmin Cho, Minkyung Han, Mooyoung Kim, KooSang Kim

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Background: Air pollution from global warming has a considerable influence on respiratory disease and atopic dermatitis (AD). Present studies base on a hypothesis about correlation between air pollutant and AD, and the results are analyzed from various points of view. Objectives: This study aimed to integrate the relevant researches for air pollutant and AD, and to perform the systematic literature review and meta-analysis to provide the basis of air pollutant control. Methods: Research materials were collected from original articles published in English academic journals including medicine, nursing and health science from August 1 to 31, 2016. We collected the materials from Pubmed, Medline, Embase, Cochrane Central database with Prisma (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis) based on the Cochrane Systematic Review Manual, and performed the evaluation and analysis for selected materials. We got the research results for risk of bias using Rev-Man ver. 5.2, and meta analyses using STATA. Results: The prevalence of infantile atopic dermatitis were 1.05 times higher than other groups who were exposed to air pollution, and exposure to NO2 (1.08, 95% CI: 1.02 – 1.14), O3 (1.09, 95% CI: 1.04 – 1.15), SO2 (1.07, 95% CI: 1.02 – 1.12) in subgroup air pollutant was considerably associated with infantile atopic dermatitis. The prevalence of infantile atopic dermatitis was 1.03 times higher than other groups who were exposed to PM2.5, but the results were not statistically similar. Conclusion: Health effect from environmental pollution risen people’s interest in environmental diseases. Air pollutant was associated with AD in this study, but selected literature was based on non-RCT (Randomized Controlled Trial) study. Therefore, there was a limit in study method including control, matching, and correction of confounding variables. For clear conclusion, it is necessary to develop the appropriate tool for object of study and clear standard to measure of air pollutant.

Keywords: air pollution, atopic dermatitis, children, meta-analysis

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