Search results for: time series chaos

Authors: JaeHwan Yang, Da-Woon Jeong, Seung-Young Kho, Dong-Kyu Kim

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In terms of ITS, information on link characteristic is an essential factor for plan or operation. But in practical cases, not every link has installed sensors on it. The link that does not have data on it is called “Missing Link”. The purpose of this study is to impute data of these missing links. To get these data, this study applies the machine learning method. With the machine learning process, especially for the deep learning process, missing link data can be estimated from present link data. For deep learning process, this study uses “Recurrent Neural Network” to take time-series data of road. As input data, Dedicated Short-range Communications (DSRC) data of Dalgubul-daero of Daegu Metropolitan Area had been fed into the learning process. Neural Network structure has 17 links with present data as input, 2 hidden layers, for 1 missing link data. As a result, forecasted data of target link show about 94% of accuracy compared with actual data.

Keywords: data estimation, link data, machine learning, road network

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Authors: Diamant Irene, Dar Tamar

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Burnout, conceptualized within the framework of stress research, is to a large extent a result of a threat on resources of time or a feeling of time shortage. In reaction to numerous tasks, deadlines, high output, management of different duties encompassing work-home conflicts, many individuals experience ‘time pressure’. Time pressure is characterized as the perception of a lack of available time in relation to the amount of workload. It can be a result of local objective constraints, but it can also be a chronic attribute in coping with life. As such, time pressure is associated in the literature with general stress experience and can therefore be a direct, contributory burnout factor. The present study examines the relation of chronic time pressure – feeling of time shortage and of being rushed, with another central aspect in subjective temporal experience - time perspective. Time perspective is a stable personal disposition, capturing the extent to which people subjectively remember the past, live the present and\or anticipate the future. Based on Hobfoll’s Conservation of Resources Theory, it was hypothesized that individuals with chronic time pressure would experience a permanent threat on their time resources resulting in relatively increased burnout. In addition, it was hypothesized that different time perspective profiles, based on Zimbardo’s typology of five dimensions – Past Positive, Past Negative, Present Hedonistic, Present Fatalistic, and Future, would be related to different magnitudes of chronic time pressure and of burnout. We expected that individuals with ‘Past Negative’ or ‘Present Fatalist’ time perspectives would experience more burnout, with chronic time pressure being a moderator variable. Conversely, individuals with a ‘Present Hedonistic’ - with little concern with the future consequences of actions, would experience less chronic time pressure and less burnout. Another temporal experience angle examined in this study is the difference between the actual distribution of time (as in a typical day) versus desired distribution of time (such as would have been distributed optimally during a day). It was hypothesized that there would be a positive correlation between the gap between these time distributions and chronic time pressure and burnout. Data was collected through an online self-reporting survey distributed on social networks, with 240 participants (aged 21-65) recruited through convenience and snowball sampling methods from various organizational sectors. The results of the present study support the hypotheses and constitute a basis for future debate regarding the elements of burnout in the modern work environment, with an emphasis on subjective temporal experience. Our findings point to the importance of chronic and stable temporal experiences, as time pressure and time perspective, in occupational experience. The findings are also discussed with a view to the development of practical methods of burnout prevention.

Keywords: conservation of resources, burnout, time pressure, time perspective

Procedia PDF Downloads 177

Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

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Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression

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Authors: Jairo Alejandro Fernandez Ortega

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Objective: Regarding effects of training velocity on strength in the functional condition of older adults controversy exists. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of a twelve-week strength training program (PE) performed at high speed (GAV) versus a traditionally executed program (GBV), on functional performance, maximum strength and muscle power in a group of older adult women. Methodology: 86 women aged between 60-81 years participated voluntarily in the study and were assigned randomly to the GAV (three series at 40% 1RM at maximum speed, with maximum losses of 10% speed) or to the GBV (three series with three sets at 70% of 1RM). Both groups performed three weekly trainings. The maximum strength of upper and lower limbs (1RM), prehensile strength, walking speed, maximum power, mean propulsive velocity (MPV) and functional performance (senior fitness test) were evaluated before and after the PE. Results: Significant improvements were observed (p < 0.05) in all the tests in the two groups after the twelve weeks of training. However, the results of GAV were significantly (P < 0.05) higher than those of the GBV, in the tests of agility and dynamic equilibrium, stationary walking, sitting and standing, walking speed over 4 and 6 meters, MPV and peak power. In the tests of maximum strength and prehensile force, the differences were not significant. Conclusion: Strength training performed at high speeds seems to have a better effect on functional performance and muscle power than strength training performed at low speed.

Keywords: power training, resistance exercise, aging, strength, physical performance, high-velocity, resistance training

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Authors: Elene Tatunashvili, Bun Chan, Philippe E. Nashar, Christopher S. P. McErlean

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The reduction of aryl diazonium salts is one of the most efficient ways to generate aryl radicals for use in a wide range of transformations, including Sandmeyer-type reactions, Meerwein arylations of olefins and Gomberg-Bachmann-Hey arylations of heteroaromatic systems. The aryl diazonium species can be reduced electrochemically, by UV irradiation, inner-sphere and outer-sphere single electron transfer processes (SET) from metal salts, SET from photo-excited organic catalysts or fragmentation of adducts with weak bases (acetate, hydroxide, etc.). This paper details an approach for the metal-free reduction of aryl diazonium salts, which facilitates the efficient synthesis of various aromatic compounds under exceedingly mild reaction conditions. By measuring the oxidation potential of a number of organic molecules, a series of nucleophiles were identified that reduce aryl diazonium salts via the addition-fragmentation mechanism. This approach leads to unprecedented operational simplicity: The reactions are very rapid and proceed in the open air; there is no need for external irradiation or heating, and the process is compatible with a large number of radical reactions. We illustrate these advantages by using the addition-fragmentation strategy to regioselectively arylate a series of heterocyclic compounds, to synthesize ketones by arylation of silyl enol ethers, and to synthesize benzothiophene and phenanthrene derivatives by radical annulation reactions.

Keywords: diazonium salts, hantzsch esters, oxygen, radical reactions, synthetic methods

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Authors: Meesun Sun, Yongmin Kim

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Estimating maintenance cost is crucial in defense management because it affects military budgets and availability of equipment. When it comes to estimating maintenance cost of the deployed equipment, time series forecasting can be applied with the actual historical cost data. It is more difficult issue to estimate maintenance cost of new equipment for which the actual costs are not provided. In this underlying context, this study proposes an analytical method for maintenance cost estimating relationships (CERs) development of helicopters using linear programming. The CERs can be applied to a new helicopter because they use non-cost independent variables such as the number of engines, the empty weight and so on. In the Republic of Korea, the maintenance cost of new equipment has been usually estimated by reflecting maintenance cost to unit price ratio of the legacy equipment. This study confirms that the CERs perform well for the 10 types of airmobile helicopters in terms of mean absolute percentage error by applying leave-one-out cross-validation. The suggested method is very useful to estimate the maintenance cost of new equipment and can help in the affordability assessment of acquisition program portfolios for total life cycle systems management.

Keywords: affordability analysis, cost estimating relationship, helicopter, linear programming, maintenance cost

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Beilei Xu, Wencheng Wu, Lei Lin, Rachel Melnyk, Ahmed Ghazi

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In operating rooms, excessive cognitive stress can impede the performance of a surgeon, while low engagement can lead to unavoidable mistakes due to complacency. As a consequence, there is a strong desire in the surgical community to be able to monitor and quantify the cognitive stress of a surgeon while performing surgical procedures. Quantitative cognitiveload-based feedback can also provide valuable insights during surgical training to optimize training efficiency and effectiveness. Various physiological measures have been evaluated for quantifying cognitive stress for different mental challenges. In this paper, we present a study using the cognitive stress measured by the task evoked pupillary response extracted from the time series eye-tracking measurements to predict task difficulties in a virtual reality based robotic surgery training environment. In particular, we proposed a differential-task-difficulty scale, utilized a comprehensive feature extraction approach, and implemented a multitask learning framework and compared the regression accuracy between the conventional single-task-based and three multitask approaches across subjects.

Keywords: surgical metric, task evoked pupillary response, multitask learning, TSFresh

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Authors: Ayala Amir

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The paper presents interdisciplinary research which draws on the literary study and the cultural study of photography to explore a literary genre defined by nostalgia – the photographed book for children. This genre, which was popular in the second half of the 20th century, presents the romantic, nostalgic image of childhood created in the visual arts in the 18th century (as suggested by Ann Higonnet). At the same time, it capitalizes on the nostalgia inherent in the event of photography as formulated by Jennifer Green-Lewis: photography frames a moment in the present while transforming it into a past longed for in the future. Unlike Freudian melancholy, nostalgia is an effect that enables representation by acknowledging the loss and containing it in the very experience of the object. The representation and preservation of the lost object (nature, childhood, innocence) are in the center of the genre of children's photography books – a modern version of ancient pastoral. In it, the unique synergia of word and image results in a nostalgic image of childhood in an era already conquered by modernization. The nostalgic effect works both in the representation of space – an Edenic image of nature already shadowed by its demise, and of time – an image of childhood imbued by what Gill Bartholnyes calls the "looking backward aesthetics" – under the sign of loss. Little critical attention has been devoted to this genre with the exception of the work of Bettina Kümmerling-Meibauer, who noted the nostalgic effect of the well-known series of photography books by Astrid Lindgren and Anna Riwkin-Brick. This research aims to elaborate Kümmerling-Meibauer's approach using the theories of the study of photography, word-image studies, as well as current studies of childhood. The theoretical perspectives are implemented in the case study of photography books created in one of the most innovative social structures in our time – the Israeli Kibbutz. This communal way of life designed a society where children will experience their childhood in a parentless rural environment that will save them from the fate of the Oedipal fall. It is suggested that in documenting these children in a fictional format, photographers and writers, images and words cooperated in creating nostalgic works situated on the border between nature and culture, imagination and reality, utopia and its realization in history.

Keywords: nostalgia, photography , childhood, children's books, kibutz

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Authors: Samaila Bawa Muazu

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Hydration process, crack potential and setting time of concrete grade C30, C40 and C50 were separately monitored using non-contact electrical resistivity apparatus, a novel plastic ring mould and penetration resistance method respectively. The results show highest resistivity of C30 at the beginning until reaching the acceleration point when C50 accelerated and overtaken the others, and this period corresponds to its final setting time range, from resistivity derivative curve, hydration process can be divided into dissolution, induction, acceleration and deceleration periods, restrained shrinkage crack and setting time tests demonstrated the earliest cracking and setting time of C50, therefore, this method conveniently and rapidly determines the concrete’s crack potential. The highest inflection time (ti), the final setting time (tf) were obtained and used with crack time in coming up with mathematical models for the prediction of concrete’s cracking age for the range being considered. Finally, ANSYS numerical simulations supports the experimental findings in terms of the earliest crack age of C50 and the crack location that, highest stress concentration is always beneath the artificially introduced expansion joint of C50.

Keywords: concrete hydration, electrical resistivity, restrained shrinkage crack, setting time, simulation

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Authors: Aïda C. Terblanché-Greeff

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Afro-polychronism is a unique amalgamated cultural value of social self-construal and time orientation. As such, the construct Afro-polychronism is conceptually analysed by focusing on the aspects of Ubuntu as collectivism and African time as polychronism. It is argued that these cultural values have a reciprocal and thus inseparable relationship. As it is general practice to measure cultural values empirically, the author conducted empirically engaged philosophy and aimed to develop a scale to measure Afro-polychronism based on its two dimensions of Ubuntu as social self-construal and African time as time orientation. From the scale’s psychometric properties, it was determined that the scale was, in fact, not reliable and valid. It was found that the correlation between the Ubuntu dimension and the African time is moderate (albeit statistically significant). In conclusion, the author abduced why this cultural value cannot be empirically measured based on its theoretical definition and indicated which different path would be more promising.

Keywords: African time, Afro-polychronism, empirically engaged African philosophy, Ubuntu

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Authors: Syed Towseef Ahmad, Fatima Amin, Pritha Acharya, Anil K. Gupta, Pervez Ahmad

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Glaciers being the sentinels of climate change, are the most visible evidence of global warming. Given the unavailability of observed field-based data, this study has focussed on the use of geospatial techniques to obtain information about the glaciers of Pir-Panjal (PPJ) and the Great Himalayan Regions of Jhelum Basin (GHR). These glaciers need to be monitored in line with the variations in climatic conditions because they significantly contribute to various sectors in the region. The main aim of this study is to map the glaciers in the two adjacent regions (PPJ and GHR) in the north-western Himalayas with different topographies and compare the changes in various glacial attributes during two different time periods (1990-2020). During the last three decades, both PPJ as well as GHR regions have observed deglaciation of around 36 and 26 percent, respectively. The mean elevation of GHR glaciers has increased from 4312 to 4390 masl, while the same for PPJ glaciers has increased from 4085 to 4124 masl during the observation period. Using accumulation area ratio (AAR) method, mean mass balance of -34.52 and -37.6 cm.w.e was recorded for the glaciers of GHR and PPJ, respectively. The difference in areal and mass loss of glaciers in these regions may be due to (i) the smaller size of PPJ glaciers which are all smaller than 1 km² and are thus more responsive to climate change (ii) Higher mean elevation of GHR glaciers (iii) local variations in climatic variables in these glaciated regions. Time series analysis of climate variables indicates that both the mean maximum and minimum temperatures of Qazigund station (Tmax= 19.2, Tmin= 6.4) are comparatively higher than the Pahalgam station (Tmax= 18.8, Tmin= 3.2). Except for precipitation in Qazigund (Slope= - 0.3 mm a⁻¹), each climatic parameter has shown an increasing trend during these three decades, and with the slope of 0.04 and 0.03°c a⁻¹, the positive trend in Tmin (pahalgam) and Tmax (qazigund) are observed to be statistically significant (p≤0.05).

Keywords: glaciers, climate change, Pir-Panjal, greater Himalayas, mass balance

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Authors: Abubakar O. Sulaiman

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Agriculture was the main stay of Nigeria’s economy before the oil boom of the 1970s caused a gradual but steady shift from agriculture to crude oil as the major source of revenue and foreign exchange. The economy later experienced many symptoms of the 'Dutch disease', with exchange rate appreciation and erosion of competitiveness of the non-oil tradable goods. In order to reverse the worsening economic situations -high unemployment, galloping inflation, deteriorating balance of payment, declining economic growth, and fiscal deficits among others- the government, embarked on austerity measures in 1982 and Structure Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986. One of the cornerstones of SAP is the diversification of the economy from oil to non-oil. In the form of stocktaking, this paper investigates the impact of non-oil revenue on economic growth in Nigeria using quarterly time-series data from 1980 to 2019. The findings revealed that a long-run relationship exists between the variables (non-oil variables) and economic growth in Nigeria. Among the variables, (agriculture revenue, manufacturing revenue, revenue from services, and company income tax) contributed substantially to economic growth. The paper recommends that the government should continue to intensify efforts and policies in the diversification of the economy as it will bring about sustainable non-oil revenue and economic growth.

Keywords: non-oil revenue, economic growth, export, long run relationship

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Authors: Van Tran Thi Thuy, Cheol Won Lim, Dukjoon Kim

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A series of biodegradable copolymers based on polyaspartamide (PASPAM) were synthesized by grafting hydrophilic O-(2-aminoethyl)-O'-methylpoly(ethylene glycol) (MPEG), hydrophobic cholic acid (CA), and pH-sensitive hydrazine (Hyd) segments on a PASPAM backbone. The hydrazine group was effectively cleaved to release doxorubicin (DOX) conjugated on PASPAM in an acidic environment. The chemical structure of the polymer and the degree of substitution of each graft segment were analyzed using FT-IR and 1H-NMR spectroscopy. The size of the MPEG/Hyd/CA-g-PASPAM copolymer self-aggregates was examined by dynamic light scattering (DLS) and transmission electron microscope (TEM). The mean diameter of the self - aggregates increased from 125 to 200 nm at pH 7.4, as the degree of substitution of CA increased from 10 to 20 %. The release kinetics of DOX was strongly affected by the pH of the releasing medium. While less than 30% of the DOX-loaded was released in about 30 h at pH 7.4, more than 60% was released at pH 5.0 within the same time. The viability tests of human breast cancer cells (MCF-7) and human embryonic kidney cells (293T) show the potential application of MPEG/Hyd/CA-g-PASPAM copolymer self-aggregates in the controlled intracellular delivery for cancer treatments.

Keywords: pH-sensitive, drug delivery, polyaspartamide, self-assembly, nano-aggregates

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Authors: M. Owlia, M. H. Azarsa, M. Khabbazan, A. Mirbagheri

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Proprioceptive neuromuscular facilitation exercises are a series of stretching techniques that are commonly used in rehabilitation and exercise therapy. Assessment of these exercises for true maneuvering requires extensive experience in this field and could not be down with patients themselves. In this paper, we developed software that uses Microsoft Kinect sensor, a spherical color marker, and real-time image processing methods to evaluate patient’s performance in generating true patterns of movements. The software also provides the patient with a visual feedback by showing his/her avatar in a Virtual Reality environment along with the correct path of moving hand, wrist and marker. Primary results during PNF exercise therapy of a patient in a room environment shows the ability of the system to identify any deviation of maneuvering path and direction of the hand from the one that has been performed by an expert physician.

Keywords: image processing, Microsoft Kinect, proprioceptive neuromuscular facilitation, upper extremities assessment, virtual reality

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Authors: Salman Mohamadi, Seyed Mohammad Ali Tayaranian Hosseini, Hamidreza Amindavar

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In this paper, we provide a procedure to analyze and model EEG (electroencephalogram) signal as a time series using ARIMA-GARCH to predict an epileptic attack. The heteroskedasticity of EEG signal is examined through the ARCH or GARCH, (Autore- gressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) test. The best ARIMA-GARCH model in AIC sense is utilized to measure the volatility of the EEG from epileptic canine subjects, to forecast the future values of EEG. ARIMA-only model can perform prediction, but the ARCH or GARCH model acting on the residuals of ARIMA attains a con- siderable improved forecast horizon. First, we estimate the best ARIMA model, then different orders of ARCH and GARCH modelings are surveyed to determine the best heteroskedastic model of the residuals of the mentioned ARIMA. Using the simulated conditional variance of selected ARCH or GARCH model, we suggest the procedure to predict the oncoming seizures. The results indicate that GARCH modeling determines the dynamic changes of variance well before the onset of seizure. It can be inferred that the prediction capability comes from the ability of the combined ARIMA-GARCH modeling to cover the heteroskedastic nature of EEG signal changes.

Keywords: epileptic seizure prediction , ARIMA, ARCH and GARCH modeling, heteroskedasticity, EEG

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Authors: Pager Mansaram Pandit

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The present paper aims to changing trends of population in Nashik district. The spatial variation of changing trends of population from 1901 to 2011. Nasik, lying between 19° 33’ and 20° 53’ north latitude and 73° 16’ and 75° 16’, with an area of 15530 Sq. K.M.North South length is 120 km. East West length is 200 km. Nashik has a population of 6,109,052 of which 3,164,261 are males and 2,944,791 and females. Average literacy rate of Nashik district in 2011 was 82.91 compared to 80.96 in 2001. In 1901 the density was 52 and in 2011 the density was 393 per sq. km. The progressive growth rate from 1901 to 2012 was 11.25 to 642.22 percent, respectively. The population trend is calculated with the help of time series. In 1901 population was 45.44% more and less in 1941 i.e. -13.86. From 1921 to 1981 the population was below the population trend but after 1991 population it gradually increased. The average rainfall it receives is 1034 mm. In the present times, because of advances in good climate, industrialization, development of road, University level educational facilities, religious importance, cargo services, good quality of grapes, pomegranates and onions, more and more people are being attracted towards Nashik districts. Another cause for the increase in the population is the main attraction of Ramkund, Muktidham Temple, Kalaram Temple, Coin Museum, and Trimbakeshwar.

Keywords: density, growth, population, population trend

Procedia PDF Downloads 445

Authors: Tae-Uk Yun, Pullip Chung, Kee-Young Kwahk, Hyunchul Ahn

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Fake news is defined as the news articles that are intentionally and verifiably false, and could mislead readers. Spread of fake news may provoke anxiety, chaos, fear, or irrational decisions of the public. Thus, detecting fake news and preventing its spread has become very important issue in our society. However, due to the huge amount of fake news produced every day, it is almost impossible to identify it by a human. Under this context, researchers have tried to develop automated fake news detection using machine learning techniques over the past years. But, there have been no prior studies proposed an automated fake news detection method for Korean news to our best knowledge. In this study, we aim to detect Korean fake news using text mining and machine learning techniques. Our proposed method consists of two steps. In the first step, the news contents to be analyzed is convert to quantified values using various text mining techniques (topic modeling, TF-IDF, and so on). After that, in step 2, classifiers are trained using the values produced in step 1. As the classifiers, machine learning techniques such as logistic regression, backpropagation network, support vector machine, and deep neural network can be applied. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, we collected about 200 short Korean news from Seoul National University’s FactCheck. which provides with detailed analysis reports from 20 media outlets and links to source documents for each case. Using this dataset, we will identify which text features are important as well as which classifiers are effective in detecting Korean fake news.

Keywords: fake news detection, Korean news, machine learning, text mining

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Authors: Jelena Popović, Andrijana Mićanović

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Officially, 60% of Montenegrin territory is covered in forests, but they are continually being destroyed by illegal cutting, concession politics and wildfires. Montenegrin Ecologists Society started the first dendrochronology lab in Montenegro, and data collection began in the Summer of 2021. The cores were taken from 3 localities around the peak Lisac on the mt. Prekornica, where biggest P.heldreichii forests existed until recent huge wildfires. This research is the first step towards comprehensive dendrochronology research in Montenegro. It will show how old certain forest stands of Pinus heldreichii on mountain Prekornica are, that were not destroyed in huge wildfires from the recent years. It will also show how do they correlate between each other. Per locality 15 trees were sampled. Electric sanders (150 - 2000) were used for preparation. Cores were scanned, then measured in CooRecorder. Analysis is done in Cofecha. Process will be repeated with Lintab 6 and TSAP (Time Series Analysis and Presentation for Dendrochronology and Related Applications) - Win Scientific software by Rinntech. Since this is the first dendrochronology research entirely done in Montenegro it is a foundation for the dendroclimatology research. Besides, it’ll contribute to the understanding of the life of these forests in this part of its areal, and in designing good management practices.

Keywords: dendrochronology, bosnian pine, pinus heldreichii, montenegro, forests

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Authors: Mohammed Umar Manko

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A series of batch experiments were conducted in order to investigate the feasibility of Balanitesaegyptiaca seeds based activated carbon as compared with industrial activated carbon for the removal of chromium and lead ions from aqueous solution by the adsorption process within 30 to 150 minutes contact time. The activated samples were prepared using zinc chloride and tetraoxophophate(VI) acid. The results obtained showed that the activated carbon of Balanitesaegyptiaca seeds studied had relatively high adsorption capacities for these heavy metal ions compared with industrial Activated Carbon. The percentage removal of Cr (VI) and lead (II) ions by the three activated carbon samples were 64%, 70% and 71%; 60%, 66% and 60% respectively. Adsorption equilibrium was established in 90 minutes for the heavy metal ions. The equilibrium data fitted the pseudo second order out of the pseudo first, pseudo second, Elovich ,Natarajan and Khalaf models tested. The investigation also showed that the adsorbents can effectively remove metal ions from similar wastewater and aqueous media.

Keywords: activated carbon, pseudo second order, chromium, lead, Elovich model

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Authors: Salman Ali Nisar, Suzuki Koji

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In this paper we developed a new algorithm to convert the project scheduling time into calendar date in order to handle non-interruptible activities not to be split by non-working days (such as weekend and holidays). In a construction project some activities might require not to be interrupted even on non-working days, or to be finished on the end day of business days. For example, concrete placing work might be required to be completed by the end day of weekdays i.e. Friday, and curing in the weekend. This research provides an algorithm that imposes time constraint for start and finish times of non-interruptible activities. The algorithm converts working days, which is obtained by Critical Path Method (CPM), to calendar date with consideration of the start date of a project. After determining the interruption by non-working days, the start time of a certain activity should be postponed, if there is enough total float value. Otherwise, the duration is shortened by hiring additional resources capacity or/and using overtime work execution. Then, time constraints are imposed to start time and finish time of the activity. The algorithm is developed in Excel Spreadsheet for microcomputer and therefore we can easily get a feasible, calendared construction schedule for such a construction project with some non-interruptible activities.

Keywords: project management, scheduling, critical path method, time constraint, non-interruptible tasks

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Authors: Mulak Moses Yokdi

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Correct use of leisure time has suffered neglect in our society and the people ignorantly think that the trend does not matter. The researcher felt concerned about the issue and went on to find out why using FCE, Pankshin workers as a case study. Four hypotheses were used, considering such variables as leadership, traditional activities, stress due to work pressure and time constraint. The participants selected for the study were one hundred and ten members of FCE, Pankshin staff. A self-developed questionnaire was the instrument used. Chi-square (x2) was employed to test the hypotheses at P = 0.005; df = 3. The statistics of percentages was also used to describe the situation as implicated by the data. The results showed that all hypotheses were significant (P = 0.05). It was concluded that the four variables were impediments to effective participation in physically oriented leisure time activities among the FCE, Staff. Based on the findings, it was recommended that the FCE should get good leadership, create good awareness for people to understand why they should be effectively involved in physically oriented leisure time activities.

Keywords: barriers, effective participation, leisure time, physically oriented, work pressure, time constraint

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Authors: Anucha Wittayakorn-Puripunpinyoo

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The research objectives were 1) to study the situation and its trend of agricultural product export of Thailand 2) to study the impact of agricultural product export on income of Thai economy 3) the impact of agricultural product export on employment of Thai economy and 4) to find out the recommendations of agricultural product export policy of Thailand. In this research, secondary data were collected as yearly time series data from 1990 to 2016 accounted for 27 years. Data were collected from the Bank of Thailand database. Primary data were collected from the steakholders of agricultural product export policy of Thailand. Data analysis was applied descriptive statistics such as arithmetic mean, standard deviation. The forecasting of agricultural product was applied Mote Carlo Simulation technique as well as time trend analysis. In addition, the impact of agricultural product export on income and employment by applying econometric model while the estimated parameters were utilized the ordinary least square technique. The research results revealed that 1) agricultural product export value of Thailand from 1990 to 2016 was 338,959.5 Million Thai baht with its growth rate of 4.984 percent yearly, in addition, the forecasting of agricultural product export value of Thailand has increased but its growth rate has been declined 2) the impact of agricultural product export has positive impact on income in Thai economy, increasing in agricultural product export of Thailand by 1 percent would lead income increased by 0.0051 percent 3) the impact of agricultural product export has positive impact on employment in Thai economy, increasing in agricultural product export of Thailand by 1 percent would lead income increased by 0.079 percent and 4) in the future, agricultural product export policy would focused on finished or semi-finished agricultural product instead of raw material by applying technology and innovation in to make value added of agricultural product export. The public agricultural product export policy would support exporters in private sector in order to encourage them as agricultural exporters in Thailand.

Keywords: agricultural product export, income, employment, Thai economy

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Authors: Abdel-Aziz M. Mohamed

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This research proposes a methodology to estimate the customer order lead time in the supply chain based on the process capability index. The cases when the process output is normally distributed and when it is not are considered. The relationships between the system capability indices in both service and manufacturing applications, delivery system reliability and the percentages of orders delivered after their promised due dates are presented. The proposed method can be used to examine the current process capability to deliver the orders before the promised lead-time. If the system was found to be incapable, the method can be used to help revise the current lead-time to a proper value according to the service reliability level selected by the management. Numerical examples and a case study describing the lead time estimation methodology and testing the system capability of delivering the orders before their promised due date are illustrated.

Keywords: lead-time estimation, process capability index, delivery system reliability, statistical analysis, service achievement index, service quality

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Authors: Kehinde Peter Oyeduntan, Kayode Oshinubi

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Nigeria is referred as the ‘Giant of Africa’ due to high population, land mass and large economy. However, it still trails far behind many smaller economies in the continent in terms of maritime operations. As we have seen that the maritime industry is the spark plug for national growth, because it houses the most crucial infrastructure that generates wealth for a nation, it is worrisome that a nation with six seaports lag in maritime activities. In this research, we have studied how the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the maritime transport influences the Nigerian economy. To do this, we applied Simple Linear Regression (SLR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Polynomial Regression Model (PRM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) to model the relationship between the nation’s Total GDP (TGDP) and the Maritime Transport GDP (MGDP) using a time series data of 20 years. The result showed that the MGDP is statistically significant to the Nigerian economy. Amongst the statistical tool applied, the PRM of order 4 describes the relationship better when compared to other methods. The recommendations presented in this study will guide policy makers and help improve the economy of Nigeria in terms of its GDP.

Keywords: maritime transport, economy, GDP, regression, port

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Authors: S. Vavias, T. R. Brewer, T. S. Farewell

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Coastal floods have been identified as an important natural hazard that can cause significant damage to the populated built-up areas, related infrastructure and also ecosystems and habitats. This study attempts to fill the gap associated with the development of preliminary assessments of coastal flood vulnerability for compliance with the EU Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks (2007/60/EC). In this context, a methodology has been created by taking into account three major parameters; the maximum wave run-up modelled from historical weather observations, the highest tide according to historic time series, and the sea level rise projections due to climate change. A high resolution digital terrain model (DTM) derived from LIDAR data has been used to integrate the estimated flood events in a GIS environment. The flood vulnerability map created shows potential risk areas and can play a crucial role in the coastal zone planning process. The proposed method has the potential to be a powerful tool for policy and decision makers for spatial planning and strategic management.

Keywords: coastal floods, vulnerability mapping, climate change, extreme weather events

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Authors: Prerna Mohan Saxena, Avni Joshi, Raju K Parasher

Abstract:

Disability is a state of decreased functioning associated with disease, disorder, injury, or other health condition, which in the context of one’s environment is experienced as an impairment, activity limitation, or participation restriction. With the concept of disability evolving over the years, the current ICF model of disability has integrated this concept into a comprehensive whole of multiple dimensions of human functioning, including biological, psychological, social, and environmental aspects. Wheelchair basketball is one of the greatest examples of adapted sports for the disabled. Through this study, we aim to evaluate the functional performance and self-esteem levels in differently-abled pediatric wheelchair basketball players, providing an insight on their abilities and deficits and how they can be worked on at a larger level to improve overall performance. The study was conducted on 9 pediatric wheelchair basketball players at Amar Jyoti school for inclusive education Delhi their physical performance was assessed using a battery of tests, and physical self esteem was assessed using the Physical self-description instrument (PSDQ-S). Results showed that 9 participants age ranged between 10-21 years, mostly males with BMI ranging between 16.7 to 28.9 kg/m2 most of them had the experience of 5 to 6 years of playing the sport. The data showed physical performance in accordance to years of experience of playing, physical self esteem showed a different perspective, with experience players scoring less on it. This study supports a multidimensional construct of physical performance and physical self-esteem, suggesting that both may be applied on the wheelchair basketball players at competitive levels.

Keywords: ase series, physical performance, physical self-esteem, wheelchair basketball

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Authors: Michael K. O. Ayomoh, Oyindamola A. Omotuyi

Abstract:

Autonomous mobile robots deployed to explore or operate in a never explored or an abandoned sub-surface mine requires extreme effectiveness in coordination and communication. In a bid to transmit information from the depth of the mine to the external surface in real-time and amidst diverse physical, chemical and virtual impediments, the concept of unified cooperative robots is seen to be a proficient approach. This paper presents an effective [human → robot → task] coordination framework for effective exploration of an abandoned underground mine. The problem addressed in this research is basically the development of a globalized optimization model premised on time series differentiation and geometrical configurations for effective positioning of the two classes of robots in the cooperation namely the outermost stationary master (OSM) robots and the innermost dynamic task (IDT) robots for effective bi-directional signal transmission. In addition, the synchronization of a vision system and wireless communication system for both categories of robots, fiber optics system for the OSM robots in cases of highly sloppy or vertical mine channels and an autonomous battery recharging capability for the IDT robots further enhanced the proposed concept. The OSM robots are the master robots which are positioned at strategic locations starting from the mine open surface down to its base using a fiber-optic cable or a wireless communication medium all subject to the identified mine geometrical configuration. The OSM robots are usually stationary and function by coordinating the transmission of signals from the IDT robots at the base of the mine to the surface and in a reverse order based on human decisions at the surface control station. The proposed scheme also presents an optimized number of robots required to form the cooperation in a bid to reduce overall operational cost and system complexity.

Keywords: sub-surface mine, wireless communication, outermost stationary master robots, inner-most dynamic robots, fiber optic

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Authors: M. Hadjisoteriou, A. Kyriacou Petrou

Abstract:

This paper will discuss ideas of social sustainability in urban design and human behavior in multicultural contested sites. It will focus on the potential of the re-reading of the “site” through mapping that acts as a research methodology and will discuss the chosen site of Mouttalos, Cyprus as a place of multiple identities. Through a methodology of mapping using a bottom up approach, a process of disassembling derives that acts as a mechanism to re-examine space and place by searching for the invisible and the non-measurable, understanding the site through its detailed inhabitation patterns. The significance of this study lies in the use of mapping as an active form of thinking rather than a passive process of representation that allows for a new site to be discovered, giving multiple opportunities for adaptive urban strategies and socially engaged design approaches. We will discuss the above thematic based on the chosen contested site of Mouttalos, a small Turkish Cypriot neighbourhood, in the old centre of Paphos (Ktima), SW of Cyprus. During the political unrest, between Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities, in 1963, the area became an enclave to the Turkish Cypriots, excluding any contact with the rest of the area. Following the Turkish invasion of 1974, the residents left their homes, plots and workplaces, resettling in the North of Cyprus. Greek Cypriot refugees moved into the area. The presence of the Greek Cypriot refugees is still considered to be a temporary resettlement. The buildings and the residents themselves exist in a state of uncertainty. The site is documented through a series of parallel investigations into the physical conditions and history of the site. Research methodologies use the process of mapping to expose the complex and often invisible layers of information that coexist. By registering the site through the subjective experiences, and everyday stories of inhabitants, a series of cartographic recordings reveals the space between: happening and narrative and especially space between different cultures and religions. Research put specific emphasis on engaging the public, promoting social interaction, identifying spatial patterns of occupation by previous inhabitants through social media. Findings exposed three main areas of interest. Firstly we identified inter-dependent relationships between permanence and temporality, characterised by elements such us, signage through layers of time, past events and periodical street festivals, unfolding memory and belonging. Secondly issues of co-ownership and occupation, found through particular narratives of exchange between the two communities and through appropriation of space. Finally formal and informal inhabitation of space, revealed through the presence of informal shared back yards, alternative paths, porous street edges and formal and informal landmarks. The importance of the above findings, was achieving a shift of focus from the built infrastructure to the soft network of multiple and complex relations of dependence and autonomy. Proposed interventions for this contested site were informed and led by a new multicultural identity where invisible qualities were revealed though the process of mapping, taking on issues of layers of time, formal and informal inhabitation and the “permanence of the temporary”.

Keywords: contested sites, mapping, social sustainability, temporary urban strategies

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Authors: Ayuko Itsuki, Sachiyo Aburatani

Abstract:

In recent years, pollutions of the environment by toxic substances become a serious problem. While there are many methods of environmental clean-up, the methods by microorganisms are considered to be reasonable and safety for environment. Compost is known that it catabolize the meladorous substancess in its production process, however the mechanism of its catabolizing system is not known yet. In the catabolization process, organic matters turn into inorganic by the released enzymes from lots of microorganisms which live in compost. In other words, the cooperative of activated enzymes in the compost decomposes malodorous substances. Thus, clarifying the interaction among enzymes is important for revealing the catabolizing system of meladorous substance in compost. In this study, we utilized statistical method to infer the interaction among enzymes. We developed a method which combined partial correlation with cross correlation to estimate the relevance between enzymes especially from time series data of few variables. Because of using cross correlation, we can estimate not only the associative structure but also the reaction pathway. We applied the developed method to the enzyme measured data and estimated an interaction among the enzymes in decomposition mechanism of toluene.

Keywords: enzyme activities, comparative analysis, compost, toluene

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Authors: Hamid Goharnejad, Amir Hossein Eghbali

Abstract:

Recent investigations have demonstrated the global sea level rise due to climate change impacts. In this study climate changes study the effects of increasing water level in the strait of Hormuz. The probable changes of sea level rise should be investigated to employ the adaption strategies. The climatic output data of a GCM (General Circulation Model) named CGCM3 under climate change scenario of A1b and A2 were used. Among different variables simulated by this model, those of maximum correlation with sea level changes in the study region and least redundancy among themselves were selected for sea level rise prediction by using stepwise regression. One models of Discrete Wavelet artificial Neural Network (DWNN) was developed to explore the relationship between climatic variables and sea level changes. In these models, wavelet was used to disaggregate the time series of input and output data into different components and then ANN was used to relate the disaggregated components of predictors and predictands to each other. The results showed in the Shahid Rajae Station for scenario A1B sea level rise is among 64 to 75 cm and for the A2 Scenario sea level rise is among 90 to 105 cm. Furthermore the result showed a significant increase of sea level at the study region under climate change impacts, which should be incorporated in coastal areas management.

Keywords: climate change scenarios, sea-level rise, strait of Hormuz, forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 271