Search results for: time prediction algorithms

Authors: Yijun Shao, Yan Cheng, Rashmee U. Shah, Charlene R. Weir, Bruce E. Bray, Qing Zeng-Treitler

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Deep neural network (DNN) models are being explored in the clinical domain, following the recent success in other domains such as image recognition. For clinical adoption, outcome prediction models require explanation, but due to the multiple non-linear inner transformations, DNN models are viewed by many as a black box. In this study, we developed a deep neural network model for predicting 1-year mortality of patients who underwent major cardio vascular procedures (MCVPs), using temporal image representation of past medical history as input. The dataset was obtained from the electronic medical data warehouse administered by Veteran Affairs Information and Computing Infrastructure (VINCI). We identified 21,355 veterans who had their first MCVP in 2014. Features for prediction included demographics, diagnoses, procedures, medication orders, hospitalizations, and frailty measures extracted from clinical notes. Temporal variables were created based on the patient history data in the 2-year window prior to the index MCVP. A temporal image was created based on these variables for each individual patient. To generate the explanation for the DNN model, we defined a new concept called impact score, based on the presence/value of clinical conditions’ impact on the predicted outcome. Like (log) odds ratio reported by the logistic regression (LR) model, impact scores are continuous variables intended to shed light on the black box model. For comparison, a logistic regression model was fitted on the same dataset. In our cohort, about 6.8% of patients died within one year. The prediction of the DNN model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 78.5% while the LR model achieved an AUC of 74.6%. A strong but not perfect correlation was found between the aggregated impact scores and the log odds ratios (Spearman’s rho = 0.74), which helped validate our explanation.

Keywords: deep neural network, temporal data, prediction, frailty, logistic regression model

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Authors: Marimuthu Gurusamy

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In vibration analysis (with accelerometers) of rotating machines with rolling element bearing, the customers are interested to know the failure of the machine well in advance to plan the spare inventory and maintenance. But in real world most of the machines fails before the prediction of vibration analyst or Expert analysis software. Presently the prediction of failure is based on ISO 10816 vibration limits only. But this is not enough to monitor the failure of machines well in advance. Because more than 50% of the machines will fail even the vibration readings are within acceptable zone as per ISO 10816.Hence it requires further detail analysis and different techniques to predict the failure well in advance. In vibration Analysis, the velocity spectrum is used to analyse the root cause of the mechanical problems like unbalance, misalignment and looseness etc. The envelope spectrum are used to analyse the bearing frequency components, hence the failure in inner race, outer race and rolling elements are identified. But so far there is no correlation made between these two concepts. The author used both velocity spectrum and Envelope spectrum to analyse the machine behaviour and bearing condition to correlated the changes in dynamic load (by unbalance, misalignment and looseness etc.) and effect of impact on the bearing. Hence we could able to predict the expected life of the machine and bearings in the rotating equipment (with rolling element bearings). Also we used process parameters like temperature, flow and pressure to correlate with flow induced vibration and load variations, when abnormal vibration occurs due to changes in process parameters. Hence by correlation of velocity spectrum, envelope spectrum and process data with 20 years of experience in vibration analysis, the author could able to predict the rotating Equipment and its component’s deterioration and expected duration for maintenance.

Keywords: vibration analysis, velocity spectrum, envelope spectrum, prediction of deterioration

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Authors: Melodi Mbuyi Mata, Blessing Olamide Taiwo, Afolabi Ayodele David

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The purpose of this research is to create empirical models for assessing the profitability of granite aggregate production in Akure, Ondo state aggregate quarries. In addition, an artificial neural network (ANN) model and multivariate predicting models for granite profitability were developed in the study. A formal survey questionnaire was used to collect data for the study. The data extracted from the case study mine for this study includes granite marketing operations, royalty, production costs, and mine production information. The following methods were used to achieve the goal of this study: descriptive statistics, MATLAB 2017, and SPSS16.0 software in analyzing and modeling the data collected from granite traders in the study areas. The ANN and Multi Variant Regression models' prediction accuracy was compared using a coefficient of determination (R²), Root mean square error (RMSE), and mean square error (MSE). Due to the high prediction error, the model evaluation indices revealed that the ANN model was suitable for predicting generated profit in a typical quarry. More quarries in Nigeria's southwest region and other geopolitical zones should be considered to improve ANN prediction accuracy.

Keywords: national development, granite, profitability assessment, ANN models

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Authors: Pinel Sebastien, Bourrin François, De Madron Du Rieu Xavier, Ludwig Wolfgang, Arnau Pedro

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Heavy precipitation constitutes a major meteorological threat in the western Mediterranean. Research has investigated the relationship between the states of the Mediterranean Sea and the atmosphere with the precipitation for short temporal windows. However, at a larger temporal scale, the precursor signals of heavy rainfall in the sea and atmosphere have drawn little attention. Moreover, despite ongoing improvements in numerical weather prediction, the medium-term forecasting of rainfall events remains a difficult task. Here, we aim to investigate the influence of early-spring environmental parameters on the following autumnal heavy precipitations. Hence, we develop a machine learning model to predict extreme autumnal rainfall with a 6-month lead time over the Spanish Catalan coastal area, based on i) the sea pattern (main current-LPC and Sea Surface Temperature-SST) at the mesoscale scale, ii) 4 European weather teleconnection patterns (NAO, WeMo, SCAND, MO) at synoptic scale, and iii) the hydrological regime of the main local river (Rhône River). The accuracy of the developed model classifier is evaluated via statistical analysis based on classification accuracy, logarithmic and confusion matrix by comparing with rainfall estimates from rain gauges and satellite observations (CHIRPS-2.0). Sensitivity tests are carried out by changing the model configuration, such as sea SST, sea LPC, river regime, and synoptic atmosphere configuration. The sensitivity analysis suggests a negligible influence from the hydrological regime, unlike SST, LPC, and specific teleconnection weather patterns. At last, this study illustrates how public datasets can be integrated into a machine learning model for heavy rainfall prediction and can interest local policies for management purposes.

Keywords: extreme hazards, sensitivity analysis, heavy rainfall, machine learning, sea-atmosphere modeling, precipitation forecasting

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Authors: Diogo Silva, Fadul Rodor, Carlos Moraes

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This work compares the results of multidimensional function approximation using two algorithms: the classical Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and the Quantum Particle Swarm Optimization (QPSO). These algorithms were both tested on three functions - The Rosenbrock, the Rastrigin, and the sphere functions - with different characteristics by increasing their number of dimensions. As a result, this study shows that the higher the function space, i.e. the larger the function dimension, the more evident the advantages of using the QPSO method compared to the PSO method in terms of performance and number of necessary iterations to reach the stop criterion.

Keywords: PSO, QPSO, function approximation, AI, optimization, multidimensional functions

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Authors: Ju Peng Poh, Jun Yu Charles Lee, Jonathan Chew Hoe Khoo

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The emergence of digital twin technology, a digital replica of physical world, has improved the real-time access to data from sensors about the performance of buildings. This digital transformation has opened up many opportunities to improve the management of the building by using the data collected to help monitor consumption patterns and energy leakages. One example is the integration of predictive models for anomaly detection. In this paper, we use the GAM (Generalised Additive Model) for the anomaly detection of Air Handling Units (AHU) power consumption pattern. There is ample research work on the use of GAM for the prediction of power consumption at the office building and nation-wide level. However, there is limited illustration of its anomaly detection capabilities, prescriptive analytics case study, and its integration with the latest development of digital twin technology. In this paper, we applied the general GAM modelling framework on the historical data of the AHU power consumption and cooling load of the building between Jan 2018 to Aug 2019 from an education campus in Singapore to train prediction models that, in turn, yield predicted values and ranges. The historical data are seamlessly extracted from the digital twin for modelling purposes. We enhanced the utility of the GAM model by using it to power a real-time anomaly detection system based on the forward predicted ranges. The magnitude of deviation from the upper and lower bounds of the uncertainty intervals is used to inform and identify anomalous data points, all based on historical data, without explicit intervention from domain experts. Notwithstanding, the domain expert fits in through an optional feedback loop through which iterative data cleansing is performed. After an anomalously high or low level of power consumption detected, a set of rule-based conditions are evaluated in real-time to help determine the next course of action for the facilities manager. The performance of GAM is then compared with other approaches to evaluate its effectiveness. Lastly, we discuss the successfully deployment of this approach for the detection of anomalous power consumption pattern and illustrated with real-world use cases.

Keywords: anomaly detection, digital twin, generalised additive model, GAM, power consumption, supervised learning

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Authors: Michael Granado

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The French philosopher Gaston Bachelard’s philosophy of time is articulated in his two works on the subject, the Intuition of the Instant (1932) and his The Dialectic of Duration (1936). Both works present a systematic methodology predicated upon the assumption that our understanding of time has radically changed as a result of Einstein and subsequently needs to be reimagined. Bachelard makes a major distinction in his discussion of time: 1. Time as it is (physical time), 2. Time as we experience it (phenomenological time). This paper will focus on the second distinction, phenomenological time, and explore the connections between Bachelard’s work and contemporary psychology. Several aspects of Bachelard’s philosophy of time nicely complement our current understanding of memory and self and clarify how the self relates to experienced time. Two points, in particular, stand out; the first is the relative nature of subjective time, and the second is the implications of subjective time in the formation of the narrative self. Bachelard introduces two philosophical concepts to explain these points: rhythmanalysis and reverie. By exploring these concepts, it will become apparent that there is an undeniable link between memory, self, and time. Through the use of narrative self, the individual connects and links memories and time together to form a sense of personal identity.

Keywords: Gaston Bachelard, memory, self, time

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Authors: Bhaumik Tyagi, Mandeep Kaur, Kanika Singla

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The advancement of blockchain has facilitated scholars to remodel e-voting systems for future generations. Server-side attacks like SQL injection attacks and DOS attacks are the most common attacks nowadays, where malicious codes are injected into the system through user input fields by illicit users, which leads to data leakage in the worst scenarios. Besides, quantum attacks are also there which manipulate the transactional data. In order to deal with all the above-mentioned attacks, integration of blockchain, convolutional neural network (CNN), and Quantum Key Distribution is done in this very research. The utilization of blockchain technology in e-voting applications is not a novel concept. But privacy and security issues are still there in a public and private blockchains. To solve this, the use of a hybrid blockchain is done in this research. This research proposed cryptographic signatures and blockchain algorithms to validate the origin and integrity of the votes. The convolutional neural network (CNN), a normalized version of the multilayer perceptron, is also applied in the system to analyze visual descriptions upon registration in a direction to enhance the privacy of voters and the e-voting system. Quantum Key Distribution is being implemented in order to secure a blockchain-based e-voting system from quantum attacks using quantum algorithms. Implementation of e-voting blockchain D-app and providing a proposed solution for the privacy of voters in e-voting using Blockchain, CNN, and Quantum Key Distribution is done.

Keywords: hybrid blockchain, secure e-voting system, convolutional neural networks, quantum key distribution, one-time pad

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Authors: Hamidreza Bagheri, Alireza Shariati

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There are many difficulties in the purification of raw components and products. However, researchers are seeking better ways for purification. One of the recent methods is extraction using supercritical fluids. In this study, the phase equilibria of benzoic acid-supercritical carbon dioxide system were investigated. Regarding the phase equilibria of this system, the modeling of solid-supercritical fluid behavior was performed using the Perturbed-Chain Statistical Association Fluid Theory (PC-SAFT) and Peng-Robinson equations of state (PR EoS). For this purpose, five PC-SAFT EoS parameters for pure benzoic acid were obtained using its experimental vapor pressure. Benzoic acid has association sites and the behavior of the benzoic acid-supercritical fluid system was well-predicted using both equations of state, while the binary interaction parameter values for PR EoS were negative. Genetic algorithm, which is one of the most accurate global optimization algorithms, was also used to optimize the pure benzoic acid parameters and the binary interaction parameters. The AAD% value for the PC-SAFT EoS, were 0.22 for the carbon dioxide-benzoic acid system.

Keywords: supercritical fluids, solubility, solid, PC-SAFT EoS, genetic algorithm

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Authors: M. Pienaar, J. W. Odendaal, J. C. Smit, J. Joubert

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Simulations are commonly used to predict the bistatic radar cross section (RCS) of military targets since characterization measurements can be expensive and time consuming. It is thus important to accurately predict the bistatic RCS of targets. Computational electromagnetic (CEM) methods can be used for bistatic RCS prediction. CEM methods are divided into full-wave and asymptotic methods. Full-wave methods are numerical approximations to the exact solution of Maxwell’s equations. These methods are very accurate but are computationally very intensive and time consuming. Asymptotic techniques make simplifying assumptions in solving Maxwell's equations and are thus less accurate but require less computational resources and time. Asymptotic techniques can thus be very valuable for the prediction of bistatic RCS of electrically large targets, due to the decreased computational requirements. This study extends previous work by validating the accuracy of asymptotic techniques to predict bistatic RCS through comparison with full-wave simulations as well as measurements. Validation is done with canonical structures as well as complex realistic aircraft models instead of only looking at a complex slicy structure. The slicy structure is a combination of canonical structures, including cylinders, corner reflectors and cubes. Validation is done over large bistatic angles and at different polarizations. Bistatic RCS measurements were conducted in a compact range, at the University of Pretoria, South Africa. The measurements were performed at different polarizations from 2 GHz to 6 GHz. Fixed bistatic angles of β = 30.8°, 45° and 90° were used. The measurements were calibrated with an active calibration target. The EM simulation tool FEKO was used to generate simulated results. The full-wave multi-level fast multipole method (MLFMM) simulated results together with the measured data were used as reference for validation. The accuracy of physical optics (PO) and geometrical optics (GO) was investigated. Differences relating to amplitude, lobing structure and null positions were observed between the asymptotic, full-wave and measured data. PO and GO were more accurate at angles close to the specular scattering directions and the accuracy seemed to decrease as the bistatic angle increased. At large bistatic angles PO did not perform well due to the shadow regions not being treated appropriately. PO also did not perform well for canonical structures where multi-bounce was the main scattering mechanism. PO and GO do not account for diffraction but these inaccuracies tended to decrease as the electrical size of objects increased. It was evident that both asymptotic techniques do not properly account for bistatic structural shadowing. Specular scattering was calculated accurately even if targets did not meet the electrically large criteria. It was evident that the bistatic RCS prediction performance of PO and GO depends on incident angle, frequency, target shape and observation angle. The improved computational efficiency of the asymptotic solvers yields a major advantage over full-wave solvers and measurements; however, there is still much room for improvement of the accuracy of these asymptotic techniques.

Keywords: asymptotic techniques, bistatic RCS, geometrical optics, physical optics

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Authors: Elda Maraj, Shkelqim Kuka

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Coronary heart disease causes many deaths in the world. Unfortunately, this problem will continue to increase in the future. In this paper, a fuzzy logic model to predict coronary heart disease is presented. This model has been developed with seven input variables and one output variable that was implemented for 30 patients in Albania. Here fuzzy logic toolbox of MATLAB is used. Fuzzy model inputs are considered as cholesterol, blood pressure, physical activity, age, BMI, smoking, and diabetes, whereas the output is the disease classification. The fuzzy sets and membership functions are chosen in an appropriate manner. Centroid method is used for defuzzification. The database is taken from University Hospital Center "Mother Teresa" in Tirana, Albania.

Keywords: coronary heart disease, fuzzy logic toolbox, membership function, prediction model

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Authors: Hamed Yousefi, Farnaz Mohammadi, Niloufar Mirian, Navid Amini

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Investigating possible capacities of visual functions where adapted mechanisms can enhance the capability of sports trainees is a promising area of research, not only from the cognitive viewpoint but also in terms of unlimited applications in sports training. In this paper, the visual evoked potential (VEP) and event-related potential (ERP) signals of amateur and trained volleyball players in a pilot study were processed. Two groups of amateur and trained subjects are asked to imagine themselves in the state of receiving a ball while they are shown a simulated volleyball field. The proposed method is based on a set of time-frequency features using algorithms such as Gabor filter, continuous wavelet transform, and a multi-stage wavelet decomposition that are extracted from VEP signals that can be indicative of being amateur or trained. The linear discriminant classifier achieves the accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 100% when the average of the repetitions of the signal corresponding to the task is used. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the feasibility of a fast, robust, and reliable feature/model determination as a neurofeedback parameter to be utilized for improving the volleyball players’ performance. The proposed measure has potential applications in brain-computer interface technology where a real-time biomarker is needed.

Keywords: visual evoked potential, time-frequency feature extraction, short-time Fourier transform, event-related spectrum potential classification, linear discriminant analysis

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Authors: Shaik Ayesha Fathima, Shaik Noor Jahan, Duvvada Rajeswara Rao

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Earth's environment and its evolution can be seen through satellite images in near real-time. Through satellite imagery, remote sensing data provide crucial information that can be used for a variety of applications, including image fusion, change detection, land cover classification, agriculture, mining, disaster mitigation, and monitoring climate change. The objective of this project is to propose a method for classifying satellite images according to multiple predefined land cover classes. The proposed approach involves collecting data in image format. The data is then pre-processed using data pre-processing techniques. The processed data is fed into the proposed algorithm and the obtained result is analyzed. Some of the algorithms used in satellite imagery classification are U-Net, Random Forest, Deep Labv3, CNN, ANN, Resnet etc. In this project, we are using the DeepLabv3 (Atrous convolution) algorithm for land cover classification. The dataset used is the deep globe land cover classification dataset. DeepLabv3 is a semantic segmentation system that uses atrous convolution to capture multi-scale context by adopting multiple atrous rates in cascade or in parallel to determine the scale of segments.

Keywords: area calculation, atrous convolution, deep globe land cover classification, deepLabv3, land cover classification, resnet 50

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Authors: Iftikhar U. Sikder

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This paper illustrates an application of granular computing approach, namely rough set theory in data mining. The paper outlines the formalism of granular computing and elucidates the mathematical underpinning of rough set theory, which has been widely used by the data mining and the machine learning community. A real-world application is illustrated, and the classification performance is compared with other contending machine learning algorithms. The predictive performance of the rough set rule induction model shows comparative success with respect to other contending algorithms.

Keywords: concept approximation, granular computing, reducts, rough set theory, rule induction

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Authors: Thota Sai Prakash, B. Yaswanth, Jhade Bhuvaneswar, Marreddy Divakar Reddy, Shyam Ji Gupta

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Across the globe, there are a lot of chronic diseases, and heart disease stands out as one of the most perilous. Sadly, many lives are lost to this condition, even though early intervention could prevent such tragedies. However, identifying heart disease in its initial stages is not easy. To address this challenge, we propose an automated system aimed at predicting the presence of heart disease using advanced techniques. By doing so, we hope to empower individuals with the knowledge needed to take proactive measures against this potentially fatal illness. Our approach towards this problem involves meticulous data preprocessing and the development of predictive models utilizing classification algorithms such as Support Vector Machines (SVM), Decision Tree, and Random Forest. We assess the efficiency of every model based on metrics like accuracy, ensuring that we select the most reliable option. Additionally, we conduct thorough data analysis to reveal the importance of different attributes. Among the models considered, Random Forest emerges as the standout performer with an accuracy rate of 96.04% in our study.

Keywords: support vector machines, decision tree, random forest

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Authors: Ahmed E. Hodaib, Mohamed A. Hashem

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In engineering applications, a design has to be as fully perfect as possible in some defined case. The designer has to overcome many challenges in order to reach the optimal solution to a specific problem. This process is called optimization. Generally, there is always a function called “objective function” that is required to be maximized or minimized by choosing input parameters called “degrees of freedom” within an allowed domain called “search space” and computing the values of the objective function for these input values. It becomes more complex when we have more than one objective for our design. As an example for Multi-Objective Optimization Problem (MOP): A structural design that aims to minimize weight and maximize strength. In such case, the Pareto Optimal Frontier (POF) is used, which is a curve plotting two objective functions for the best cases. At this point, a designer should make a decision to choose the point on the curve. Engineers use algorithms or iterative methods for optimization. In this paper, we will discuss the Evolutionary Algorithms (EA) which are widely used with Multi-objective Optimization Problems due to their robustness, simplicity, suitability to be coupled and to be parallelized. Evolutionary algorithms are developed to guarantee the convergence to an optimal solution. An EA uses mechanisms inspired by Darwinian evolution principles. Technically, they belong to the family of trial and error problem solvers and can be considered global optimization methods with a stochastic optimization character. The optimization is initialized by picking random solutions from the search space and then the solution progresses towards the optimal point by using operators such as Selection, Combination, Cross-over and/or Mutation. These operators are applied to the old solutions “parents” so that new sets of design variables called “children” appear. The process is repeated until the optimal solution to the problem is reached. Reliable and robust computational fluid dynamics solvers are nowadays commonly utilized in the design and analyses of various engineering systems, such as aircraft, turbo-machinery, and auto-motives. Coupling of Computational Fluid Dynamics “CFD” and Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms “MOEA” has become substantial in aerospace engineering applications, such as in aerodynamic shape optimization and advanced turbo-machinery design.

Keywords: mathematical optimization, multi-objective evolutionary algorithms "MOEA", computational fluid dynamics "CFD", aerodynamic shape optimization

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Authors: Liang Zhao, Jili Zhang, Chongquan Zhong

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Energy consumption data, in particular those involving public buildings, are impacted by many factors: the building structure, climate/environmental parameters, construction, system operating condition, and user behavior patterns. Traditional methods for data analysis are insufficient. This paper delves into the data mining technology to determine its application in the analysis of building energy consumption data including energy consumption prediction, fault diagnosis, and optimal operation. Recent literature are reviewed and summarized, the problems faced by data mining technology in the area of energy consumption data analysis are enumerated, and research points for future studies are given.

Keywords: data mining, data analysis, prediction, optimization, building operational performance

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Authors: Ferzat Anka

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Many types of problems can be solved using traditional analytical methods. However, these methods take a long time and cause inefficient use of resources. In particular, different approaches may be required in solving complex and global engineering problems that we frequently encounter in real life. The bigger and more complex a problem, the harder it is to solve. Such problems are called Nondeterministic Polynomial time (NP-hard) in the literature. The main reasons for recommending different metaheuristic algorithms for various problems are the use of simple concepts, the use of simple mathematical equations and structures, the use of non-derivative mechanisms, the avoidance of local optima, and their fast convergence. They are also flexible, as they can be applied to different problems without very specific modifications. Thanks to these features, it can be easily embedded even in many hardware devices. Accordingly, this approach can also be used in trend application areas such as IoT, big data, and parallel structures. Indeed, the metaheuristic approaches are algorithms that return near-optimal results for solving large-scale optimization problems. This study is focused on the new metaheuristic method that has been merged with the chaotic approach. It is based on the chaos theorem and helps relevant algorithms to improve the diversity of the population and fast convergence. This approach is based on Chimp Optimization Algorithm (ChOA), that is a recently introduced metaheuristic algorithm inspired by nature. This algorithm identified four types of chimpanzee groups: attacker, barrier, chaser, and driver, and proposed a suitable mathematical model for them based on the various intelligence and sexual motivations of chimpanzees. However, this algorithm is not more successful in the convergence rate and escaping of the local optimum trap in solving high-dimensional problems. Although it and some of its variants use some strategies to overcome these problems, it is observed that it is not sufficient. Therefore, in this study, a newly expanded variant is described. In the algorithm called Ex-ChOA, hybrid models are proposed for position updates of search agents, and a dynamic switching mechanism is provided for transition phases. This flexible structure solves the slow convergence problem of ChOA and improves its accuracy in multidimensional problems. Therefore, it tries to achieve success in solving global, complex, and constrained problems. The main contribution of this study is 1) It improves the accuracy and solves the slow convergence problem of the ChOA. 2) It proposes new hybrid movement strategy models for position updates of search agents. 3) It provides success in solving global, complex, and constrained problems. 4) It provides a dynamic switching mechanism between phases. The performance of the Ex-ChOA algorithm is analyzed on a total of 8 benchmark functions, as well as a total of 2 classical and constrained engineering problems. The proposed algorithm is compared with the ChoA, and several well-known variants (Weighted-ChoA, Enhanced-ChoA) are used. In addition, an Improved algorithm from the Grey Wolf Optimizer (I-GWO) method is chosen for comparison since the working model is similar. The obtained results depict that the proposed algorithm performs better or equivalently to the compared algorithms.

Keywords: optimization, metaheuristic, chimp optimization algorithm, engineering constrained problems

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Authors: Ju-Young Hwang, Hyo-Gyoung Kwak

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This paper introduces a numerical analysis method for reinforced-concrete (RC) structures exposed to fire and compares the result with experimental results. The proposed analysis method for RC structure under the high temperature consists of two procedures. First step is to decide the temperature distribution across the section through the heat transfer analysis by using the time-temperature curve. After determination of the temperature distribution, the nonlinear analysis is followed. By considering material and geometrical nonlinearity with the temperature distribution, nonlinear analysis predicts the behavior of RC structure under the fire by the exposed time. The proposed method is validated by the comparison with the experimental results. Finally, prediction model to describe the status of after-cooling concrete can also be introduced based on the results of additional experiment. The product of this study is expected to be embedded for smart structure monitoring system against fire in u-City.

Keywords: RC, high temperature, after-cooling analysis, nonlinear analysis

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Authors: Mohsen Ziaee

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In this paper, a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model is presented to solve the flexible job shop scheduling problem (FJSP). This problem is one of the hardest combinatorial problems. The objective considered is the minimization of the makespan. The computational results of the proposed MILP model were compared with those of the best known mathematical model in the literature in terms of the computational time. The results show that our model has better performance with respect to all the considered performance measures including relative percentage deviation (RPD) value, number of constraints, and total number of variables. By this improved mathematical model, larger FJS problems can be optimally solved in reasonable time, and therefore, the model would be a better tool for the performance evaluation of the approximation algorithms developed for the problem.

Keywords: scheduling, flexible job shop, makespan, mixed integer linear programming

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Authors: Omar M. Elmabrouk., Roaa Y. Taha., Najat M. Ebrahim, Sabbreen A. Mohammed

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Power transformers are the most crucial part of power electrical system, distribution and transmission grid. This part is maintained using predictive or condition-based maintenance approach. The diagnosis of power transformer condition is performed based on Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA). There are five main methods utilized for analyzing these gases. These methods are International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) gas ratio, Key Gas, Roger gas ratio, Doernenburg, and Duval Triangle. Moreover, due to the importance of the transformers, there is a need for an accurate technique to diagnose and hence predict the transformer condition. The main objective of this technique is to avoid the transformer faults and hence to maintain the power electrical system, distribution and transmission grid. In this paper, the DGA was utilized based on the data collected from the transformer records available in the General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL) which is located in Benghazi-Libya. The Fuzzy Logic (FL) technique was implemented as a diagnostic approach based on IEC gas ratio method. The FL technique gave better results and approved to be used as an accurate prediction technique for power transformer faults. Also, this technique is approved to be a quite interesting for the readers and the concern researchers in the area of FL mathematics and power transformer.

Keywords: dissolved gas-in-oil analysis, fuzzy logic, power transformer, prediction

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Authors: Riccardo Loggia, Francesca Pizzimenti, Francesco Lelli, Luigi Martirano

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Recent air emission regulations point toward the complete electrification of road vehicles. An increasing number of users are beginning to prefer full electric or hybrid, plug-in vehicle solutions, incentivized by government subsidies and the lower cost of electricity compared to gasoline or diesel. However, it is necessary to optimize charging stations so that they can simultaneously satisfy as many users as possible. The purpose of this paper is to present optimization algorithms that enable simultaneous charging of multiple electric vehicles while ensuring maximum performance in relation to the type of charging station.

Keywords: electric vehicles, charging stations, sharing model, fast charging, car park, power profiles

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Authors: Prozorkevitch D., Mishurov A., Sokolov K., Karsakov L., Pestrikova L.

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The current body of knowledge about the marine environment and the dynamics of marine ecosystems includes a huge amount of heterogeneous data collected over decades. It generally includes a wide range of hydrological, biological and fishery data. Marine researchers collect these data and analyze how and why the ecosystem changes from past to present. Based on these historical records and linkages between the processes it is possible to predict future changes. Multivariate analysis of trends and their interconnection in the marine ecosystem may be used as an instrument for predicting further ecosystem evolution. A wide range of information about the components of the marine ecosystem for more than 50 years needs to be used to investigate how these arrays can help to predict the future.

Keywords: barents sea ecosystem, abiotic, biotic, data sets, trends, prediction

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Authors: Dariush Jafari, S. Mostafa Nowee

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In this study a ternary system containing sodium chloride as solute, water as primary solvent and ethanol as the antisolvent was considered to investigate the application of artificial neural network (ANN) in prediction of sodium solubility in the mixture of water as the solvent and ethanol as the antisolvent. The system was previously studied using by Extended UNIQUAC model by the authors of this study. The comparison between the results of the two models shows an excellent agreement between them (R2=0.99), and also approves the capability of ANN to predict the thermodynamic behavior of ternary electrolyte systems which are difficult to model.

Keywords: thermodynamic modeling, ANN, solubility, ternary electrolyte system

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Authors: A. J. Regan, F. J. Lidgey, M. Betteridge, P. Georgiou, C. Toumazou, K. Hayatleh, J. R. Dibble

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Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-of-sample strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.

Keywords: financial algorithm, GPU, S&P 500, stock market prediction

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Authors: Ahmed Alutaibi, Ganti Sudhakar

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Providing better Quality-of-Service (QoS) to end users has been a challenging problem for researchers and service providers. Building applications relying on best effort network protocols hindered the adoption of guaranteed service parameters and, ultimately, Quality of Service. The introduction of Software Defined Networking (SDN) opened the door for a new paradigm shift towards a more controlled programmable configurable behavior. Openflow has been and still is the main implementation of the SDN vision. To facilitate better QoS for applications, the network must calculate and measure certain parameters. One of those parameters is the delay between the two ends of the connection. Using the power of SDN and the knowledge of application and network behavior, SDN networks can adjust to different conditions and specifications. In this paper, we use the capabilities of SDN to implement multiple algorithms to measure delay end-to-end not only inside the SDN network. The results of applying the algorithms on an emulated environment show that we can get measurements close to the emulated delay. The results also show that depending on the algorithm, load on the network and controller can differ. In addition, the transport layer handshake algorithm performs best among the tested algorithms. Out of the results and implementation, we show the limitations of Openflow and develop suggestions to solve them.

Keywords: software defined networking, quality of service, delay measurement, openflow, mininet

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Authors: Hamdi Beji, Toufik Kanit, Tanguy Messager

Abstract:

This study aims to construct a predictive model proficient in foreseeing the linear elastic and thermal characteristics of composite materials, drawing on a multitude of influencing parameters. These parameters encompass the shape of inclusions (circular, elliptical, square, triangle), their spatial coordinates within the matrix, orientation, volume fraction (ranging from 0.05 to 0.4), and variations in contrast (spanning from 10 to 200). A variety of machine learning techniques are deployed, including decision trees, random forests, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbors, and an artificial neural network (ANN), to facilitate this predictive model. Moreover, this research goes beyond the predictive aspect by delving into an inverse analysis using genetic algorithms. The intent is to unveil the intrinsic characteristics of composite materials by evaluating their thermomechanical responses. The foundation of this research lies in the establishment of a comprehensive database that accounts for the array of input parameters mentioned earlier. This database, enriched with this diversity of input variables, serves as a bedrock for the creation of machine learning and genetic algorithm-based models. These models are meticulously trained to not only predict but also elucidate the mechanical and thermal conduct of composite materials. Remarkably, the coupling of machine learning and genetic algorithms has proven highly effective, yielding predictions with remarkable accuracy, boasting scores ranging between 0.97 and 0.99. This achievement marks a significant breakthrough, demonstrating the potential of this innovative approach in the field of materials engineering.

Keywords: machine learning, composite materials, genetic algorithms, mechanical and thermal proprieties

Procedia PDF Downloads 43

Authors: Juliana A. Knocikova

Abstract:

Methods of nonlinear signal analysis are based on finding that random behavior can arise in deterministic nonlinear systems with a few degrees of freedom. Considering the dynamical systems, entropy is usually understood as a rate of information production. Changes in temporal dynamics of physiological data are indicating evolving of system in time, thus a level of new signal pattern generation. During last decades, many algorithms were introduced to assess some patterns of physiological responses to external stimulus. However, the reflex responses are usually characterized by short periods of time. This characteristic represents a great limitation for usual methods of nonlinear analysis. To solve the problems of short recordings, parameter of approximate entropy has been introduced as a measure of system complexity. Low value of this parameter is reflecting regularity and predictability in analyzed time series. On the other side, increasing of this parameter means unpredictability and a random behavior, hence a higher system complexity. Reduced neurophysiological data complexity has been observed repeatedly when analyzing electroneurogram and electromyogram activities during defence reflex responses. Quantitative phrenic neurogram changes are also obvious during severe hypoxia, as well as during airway reflex episodes. Concluding, the approximate entropy parameter serves as a convenient tool for analysis of reflex behavior characterized by short lasting time series.

Keywords: approximate entropy, neurophysiological data, nonlinear dynamics, reflex

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Authors: Radoslaw Pytlak, Damian Suski

Abstract:

The aim of the paper is to provide a computational tool for planning a haemodialysis process. It is shown that optimization methods can be used to obtain the most effective treatment focused on removing both urea and phosphorus during the process. In order to achieve that, the IV–compartment model of phosphorus kinetics is applied. This kinetics model takes into account a rebound phenomenon that can occur during haemodialysis and results in a hybrid model of the process. Furthermore, vector fields associated with the model equations are such that it is very likely that using the most intuitive objective functions in the planning problem could lead to solutions which include sliding motions. Therefore, building computational tools for solving the problem of planning a haemodialysis process has required constructing numerical algorithms for solving optimal control problems with hybrid systems. The paper concentrates on minimum time control of hybrid systems since this control objective is the most suitable for the haemodialysis process considered in the paper. The presented approach to optimal control problems with hybrid systems is different from the others in several aspects. First of all, it is assumed that a hybrid system can exhibit sliding modes. Secondly, the system’s motion on the switching surface is described by index 2 differential–algebraic equations, and that guarantees accurate tracking of the sliding motion surface. Thirdly, the gradients of the problem’s functionals are evaluated with the help of adjoint equations. The adjoint equations presented in the paper take into account sliding motion and exhibit jump conditions at transition times. The optimality conditions in the form of the weak maximum principle for optimal control problems with hybrid systems exhibiting sliding modes and with piecewise constant controls are stated. The presented sensitivity analysis can be used to construct globally convergent algorithms for solving considered problems. The paper presents numerical results of solving the haemodialysis planning problem.

Keywords: haemodialysis planning process, hybrid systems, optimal control, sliding motion

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Elisabetta Cianfanelli, Paolo Pupparo, Maria Claudia Coppola

Abstract:

The recent evolutions in the innovation processes and in the intrinsic tendencies of the product development process, lead to new considerations on the design flow. The instability and complexity that contemporary life describes, defines new problems in the production of products, stimulating at the same time the adoption of new solutions across the entire design process. The advent of Additive Manufacturing, but also of IOT and AI technologies, continuously puts us in front of new paradigms regarding design as a social activity. The totality of these technologies from the point of view of application describes a whole series of problems and considerations immanent to design thinking. Addressing these problems may require some initial intuition and the use of some provisional set of rules or plausible strategies, i.e., heuristic reasoning. At the same time, however, the evolution of digital technology and the computational speed of new design tools describe a new and contrary design framework in which to operate. It is therefore interesting to understand the opportunities and boundaries of the new man-algorithm relationship. The contribution investigates the man-algorithm relationship starting from the state of the art of the Made in Italy model, the most known fields of application are described and then focus on specific cases in which the mutual relationship between man and AI becomes a new driving force of innovation for entire production chains. On the other hand, the use of algorithms could engulf many design phases, such as the definition of shape, dimensions, proportions, materials, static verifications, and simulations. Operating in this context, therefore, becomes a strategic action, capable of defining fundamental choices for the design of product systems in the near future. If there is a human-algorithm combination within a new integrated system, quantitative values can be controlled in relation to qualitative and material values. The trajectory that is described therefore becomes a new design horizon in which to operate, where it is interesting to highlight the good practices that already exist. In this context, the designer developing new forms can experiment with ways still unexpressed in the project and can define a new synthesis and simplification of algorithms, so that each artifact has a signature in order to define in all its parts, emotional and structural. This signature of the designer, a combination of values and design culture, will be internal to the algorithms and able to relate to digital technologies, creating a generative dialogue for design purposes. The result that is envisaged indicates a new vision of digital technologies, no longer understood only as of the custodians of vast quantities of information, but also as a valid integrated tool in close relationship with the design culture.

Keywords: decision making, design euristics, product design, product design process, design paradigms

Procedia PDF Downloads 101