Search results for: estimating of trajectory

Authors: Sang Wook Park, Jun Su Park, Byung Kwan Oh, Yousok Kim, Hyo Seon Park

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This study suggests the estimation method of stress distribution for the beam structures based on TLS (Terrestrial Laser Scanning). The main components of method are the creation of the lattices of raw data from TLS to satisfy the suitable condition and application of CSSI (Cubic Smoothing Spline Interpolation) for estimating stress distribution. Estimation of stress distribution for the structural member or the whole structure is one of the important factors for safety evaluation of the structure. Existing sensors which include ESG (Electric strain gauge) and LVDT (Linear Variable Differential Transformer) can be categorized as contact type sensor which should be installed on the structural members and also there are various limitations such as the need of separate space where the network cables are installed and the difficulty of access for sensor installation in real buildings. To overcome these problems inherent in the contact type sensors, TLS system of LiDAR (light detection and ranging), which can measure the displacement of a target in a long range without the influence of surrounding environment and also get the whole shape of the structure, has been applied to the field of structural health monitoring. The important characteristic of TLS measuring is a formation of point clouds which has many points including the local coordinate. Point clouds is not linear distribution but dispersed shape. Thus, to analyze point clouds, the interpolation is needed vitally. Through formation of averaged lattices and CSSI for the raw data, the method which can estimate the displacement of simple beam was developed. Also, the developed method can be extended to calculate the strain and finally applicable to estimate a stress distribution of a structural member. To verify the validity of the method, the loading test on a simple beam was conducted and TLS measured it. Through a comparison of the estimated stress and reference stress, the validity of the method is confirmed.

Keywords: structural healthcare monitoring, terrestrial laser scanning, estimation of stress distribution, coordinate transformation, cubic smoothing spline interpolation

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Authors: Darren J. Ellis

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This paper investigates the key industry-level consequences and future prospects for the global airline industry of the requirement for airlines to have a home base. This industry context results in geographical location playing a central role in determining how and where international airlines can operate, and the extent to which their international networks can develop. Data from a five stage mixed-methods Delphi study into the global airline industry’s likely future trajectory conducted in 2013 and 2014 are utilized to better understand the likelihood and consequences of home base requirements changing in future. Expert views and forecasts were collected to gauge core industry trends over a ten year timeframe. Attempts to change or bypass this industry requirement have not been successful to date outside of the European single air market. Europe remains the only prominent exception to the general rule in this regard. Most of the industry is founded on air space sovereignty, the nationality rule, and the bilateral system of traffic rights. Europe’s exceptionalism has seen it evolve into a single air market with characteristics similar to a nation-state, rather than to become a force for wider industry change and regional multilateralism. Europe has indeed become a key actor in global aviation, but Europe seems to now be part of the industry’s status quo, not a vehicle for substantially wider multilateralism around the world. The findings from this research indicate that the bilateral system is not viewed by most study experts as disappearing or substantially weakening in the foreseeable future. However, regional multilateralism was also viewed as progressively taking hold in the industry in future, demonstrating that for most industry experts the two are not seen as mutually exclusive but rather as being able to co-exist with each other. This reality ensures that geographical location will continue to play an important role in the global airline industry in future and that, home base requirements will not disappear any time soon either. Even moves in some aviation jurisdictions to dilute nationality requirements for airlines, and instead replace ownership and control restrictions with principal place of business tests, do not ultimately free airlines from their home base. Likewise, an expansion of what constitutes home base to include a regional grouping of countries – again, a currently uncommon reality in global aviation – does not fundamentally weaken the continued relevance of geographical location to the global industry’s future growth and development realities and prospects.

Keywords: airline industry, air space sovereignty, geographical location, home base

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Authors: Athena Pedro, Zandile Batweni, Laura Bradfield, Michael Dare, Ashley Nyman

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The rapid growth and development of an infant in the first 1000 days of life means that this time period provides the greatest opportunity for a positive developmental impact on a child’s life socially, emotionally, cognitively and physically. Current research is being focused on children in the first 1000 days, but there is a lack of research and understanding of mothers and their experiences during this crucial time period. Thus, it is imperative that more research is done to help better understand the experiences of mothers during the first 1000 days of their child’s life, as well as gain more insight into mothers’ knowledge regarding this time period. The first 1000 days of life, from conception to two years, is a critical period, and the child’s attachment to his or her mother or primary caregiver during this period is crucial for a multitude of future outcomes. The aim of this study was to explore mothers’ understanding and experience of the first 1000 days of their child’s life, specifically looking at attachment in the context of Bowlby and Ainsworths’ attachment theory. Using a qualitative methodological framework, data were collected through semi-structured individual interviews with 12 first-time mothers from low-income communities in Cape Town. Thematic analysis of the data revealed that mothers articulated the importance of attachment within the first 1000 days of life and shared experiences of how they bond and form attachment with their babies. Furthermore, these mothers expressed their belief in the long-term effects of early attachment of responsive positive parenting as well as the lasting effects of poor attachment and non-responsive parenting. This study has implications for new mothers and healthcare staff working with mothers of new-born babies, as well as for future contextual research. By gaining insight into the mothers’ experiences, policies and intervention efforts can be formulated in order to assist mothers during this time, which ultimately promote the healthy development of the nation’s children and future adult generation. If researchers are also able to understand the extent of mothers’ general knowledge regarding the first 1000 days and attachment, then there will be a better understanding of where there may be gaps in knowledge and thus, recommendations for effective and relevant intervention efforts may be provided. These interventions may increase knowledge and awareness of new mothers and health care workers at clinics and other service providers, creating a high impact on positive outcome. Thus, improving the developmental trajectory for many young babies allows them the opportunity to pursue optimal development by reaching their full potential.

Keywords: attachment, experience, first 1000 days, knowledge, mothers

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Authors: Fatma Mohamed Magdy Badr El Dine, Amr Mohamed Abd Allah

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Introduction: Age estimation of individuals is one of the crucial steps in forensic practice. Different traditional methods rely on the length of the diaphysis of long bones of limbs, epiphyseal-diaphyseal union, fusion of the primary ossification centers as well as dental eruption. However, there is a growing need for the development of precise and reliable methods to estimate age, especially in cases where dismembered corpses, burnt bodies, purified or fragmented parts are recovered. Teeth are the hardest and indestructible structure in the human body. In recent years, assessment of pulp/tooth area ratio, as an indirect quantification of secondary dentine deposition has received a considerable attention. However, scanty work has been done in Egypt in terms of applicability of pulp/tooth ratio for age estimation. Aim of the Work: The present work was designed to assess the Cameriere’s method for age estimation from pulp/tooth ratio of maxillary canines, central and lateral incisors among a sample from Egyptian population. In addition, to formulate regression equations to be used as population-based standards for age determination. Material and Methods: The present study was conducted on 270 peri-apical X-rays of maxillary canines, central and lateral incisors (collected from 131 males and 139 females aged between 19 and 52 years). The pulp and tooth areas were measured using the Adobe Photoshop software program and the pulp/tooth area ratio was computed. Linear regression equations were determined separately for canines, central and lateral incisors. Results: A significant correlation was recorded between the pulp/tooth area ratio and the chronological age. The linear regression analysis revealed a coefficient of determination (R² = 0.824 for canine, 0.588 for central incisor and 0.737 for lateral incisor teeth). Three regression equations were derived. Conclusion: As a conclusion, the pulp/tooth ratio is a useful technique for estimating age among Egyptians. Additionally, the regression equation derived from canines gave better result than the incisors.

Keywords: age determination, canines, central incisors, Egypt, lateral incisors, pulp/tooth ratio

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Authors: Rajendra Chetty

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The paper aims to address two aspects of postgraduate studies: interdisciplinary research and creative models of supervision. Interdisciplinary research can be viewed as a key imperative to solve complex problems. While excellent research requires a context of disciplinary strength, the cutting edge is often found at the intersection between disciplines. Interdisciplinary research foregrounds a team approach and information, methodologies, designs, and theories from different disciplines are integrated to advance fundamental understanding or to solve problems whose solutions are beyond the scope of a single discipline. Our aim should also be to generate research that transcends the original disciplines i.e. transdisciplinary research. Complexity is characteristic of the knowledge economy, hence, postgraduate research and engaged scholarship should be viewed by universities as primary vehicles through which knowledge can be generated to have a meaningful impact on society. There are far too many ‘ordinary’ studies that fall into the realm of credentialism and certification as opposed to significant studies that generate new knowledge and provide a trajectory for further academic discourse. Secondly, the paper will look at models of supervision that are different to the dominant ‘apprentice’ or individual approach. A reflective practitioner approach would be used to discuss a range of supervision models that resonate well with the principles of interdisciplinarity, growth in the postgraduate sector and a commitment to engaged scholarship. The global demand for postgraduate education has resulted in increased intake and new demands to limited supervision capacity at institutions. Team supervision lodged within large-scale research projects, working with a cohort of students within a research theme, the journal article route of doctoral studies and the professional PhD are some of the models that provide an alternative to the traditional approach. International cooperation should be encouraged in the production of high-impact research and institutions should be committed to stimulating international linkages which would result in co-supervision and mobility of postgraduate students and global significance of postgraduate research. International linkages are also valuable in increasing the capacity for supervision at new and developing universities. Innovative co-supervision and joint-degree options with global partners should be explored within strategic planning for innovative postgraduate programmes. Co-supervision of PhD students is probably the strongest driver (besides funding) for collaborative research as it provides the glue of shared interest, advantage and commitment between supervisors. The students’ field serves and informs the co-supervisors own research agendas and helps to shape over-arching research themes through shared research findings.

Keywords: interdisciplinarity, internationalisation, postgraduate, supervision

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Authors: Emiliano Matta

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Passive resonant vibration absorbers are among the most widely used dynamic control systems in civil engineering. They typically consist in a single-degree-of-freedom mechanical appendage of the main structure, tuned to one structural target mode through frequency and damping optimization. One classical scheme is the pendulum absorber, whose mass is constrained to move along a curved trajectory and is damped by viscous dashpots. Even though the principle is well known, the search for improved arrangements is still under way. In recent years this investigation inspired a type of bidirectional pendulum absorber (BPA), consisting of a mass constrained to move along an optimal three-dimensional (3D) concave surface. For such a BPA, the surface principal curvatures are designed to ensure a bidirectional tuning of the absorber to both principal modes of the main structure, while damping is produced either by horizontal viscous dashpots or by vertical friction dashpots, connecting the BPA to the main structure. In this paper, a variant of BPA is proposed, where damping originates from the variable tangential friction force which develops between the pendulum mass and the 3D surface as a result of a spatially-varying friction coefficient pattern. Namely, a friction coefficient is proposed that varies along the pendulum surface in proportion to the modulus of the 3D surface gradient. With such an assumption, the dissipative model of the absorber can be proven to be nonlinear homogeneous in the small displacement domain. The resulting homogeneous BPA (HBPA) has a fundamental advantage over conventional friction-type absorbers, because its equivalent damping ratio results independent on the amplitude of oscillations, and therefore its optimal performance does not depend on the excitation level. On the other hand, the HBPA is more compact than viscously damped BPAs because it does not need the installation of dampers. This paper presents the analytical model of the HBPA and an optimal methodology for its design. Numerical simulations of single- and multi-story building structures under wind and earthquake loads are presented to compare the HBPA with classical viscously damped BPAs. It is shown that the HBPA is a promising alternative to existing BPA types and that homogeneous tangential friction is an effective means to realize systems provided with amplitude-independent damping.

Keywords: amplitude-independent damping, homogeneous friction, pendulum nonlinear dynamics, structural control, vibration resonant absorbers

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Authors: Teris Cheung, Joyce Yuen Ting Lam, Kwan Hin Fong, Yuen Shan Ho, Tim Man Ho Li, Andy Choi-Yeung Tse, Cheng-Ta Li, Calvin Pak-Wing Cheng, Roland Beisteiner

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Transcranial pulse stimulation (TPS) is a non-intrusive brain stimulation technology that has been proven effective in older adults with mild neurocognitive disorders and adults with major depressive disorder. Given these robust evidences, TPS might be an adjunct treatment options in neuropsychiatric disorders, for example, autism spectrum disorder (ASD) – which is a common neurodevelopmental disorder in children. This trial aimed to investigate the effects of TPS on right temporoparietal junction, a key node for social cognition for Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), and to examine the association between TPS, executive functions and social functions. Design: This trial adopted a two-armed (verum TPS group vs. sham TPS group), double-blinded, randomized, sham-controlled design. Sampling: 32 subjects aged between 12 and 17, diagnosed with ASD were recruited. All subjects were computerized randomized into either verum TPS group or the sham TPS group on a 1:1 ratio. All subjects undertook functional MRI before and after the TPS interventions. Intervention: Six 30-min TPS sessions were administered to subjects in 2 weeks’ time on alternate days assessing neural connectivity changes. Baseline measurements and post-TPS evaluation of the ASD symptoms, executive functions, and social functions were conducted. Participants were followed up at 2-weeks, at 1-month and 3-month, assessing the short-and long-term sustainability of the TPS intervention. Data analysis: Generalized Estimating Equations with repeated measures were used to analyze the group and time difference. Missing data were managed by multiple imputations. The level of significance was set at p < 0.05. To our best knowledge, this is the first study evaluating the efficacy and safety of TPS among adolescents with ASD in Hong Kong and nationwide. Results emerging from this study will develop insight on whether TPS can be used as an adjunct treatment on ASD in neuroscience and clinical psychiatry. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT05408793.

Keywords: adolescents, autism spectrum disorder, neuromodulation, rct, transcranial pulse stimulation

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Authors: Heewon Jeong, Seongpyo Kim, Joon Ha Kim

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Over the last few tens of years, the coastal regions of Korea have experienced red tide algal blooms, which are harmful and toxic to both humans and marine organisms due to their potential threat. It was accelerated owing to eutrophication by human activities, certain oceanic processes, and climate change. Previous studies have tried to monitoring and predicting the algae concentration of the ocean with the bio-optical algorithms applied to color images of the satellite. However, the accurate estimation of algal blooms remains problems to challenges because of the complexity of coastal waters. Therefore, this study suggests a new method to identify the concentration of red tide algal bloom from images of geostationary ocean color imager (GOCI) which are representing the water environment of the sea in Korea. The method employed GOCI images, which took the water leaving radiances centered at 443nm, 490nm and 660nm respectively, as well as observed weather data (i.e., humidity, temperature and atmospheric pressure) for the database to apply optical characteristics of algae and train deep learning algorithm. Convolution neural network (CNN) was used to extract the significant features from the images. And then artificial neural network (ANN) was used to estimate the concentration of algae from the extracted features. For training of the deep learning model, backpropagation learning strategy is developed. The established methods were tested and compared with the performances of GOCI data processing system (GDPS), which is based on standard image processing algorithms and optical algorithms. The model had better performance to estimate algae concentration than the GDPS which is impossible to estimate greater than 5mg/m³. Thus, deep learning model trained successfully to assess algae concentration in spite of the complexity of water environment. Furthermore, the results of this system and methodology can be used to improve the performances of remote sensing. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the 'Climate Technology Development and Application' research project (#K07731) through a grant provided by GIST in 2017.

Keywords: deep learning, algae concentration, remote sensing, satellite

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Authors: Mohamad Amin Amini, Mehdi Poursha

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Nonlinear response history analysis (NL-RHA) is a robust analytical tool for estimating the seismic demands of structures responding in the inelastic range. However, because of its conceptual and numerical complications, the nonlinear static procedure (NSP) is being increasingly used as a suitable tool for seismic performance evaluation of structures. The conventional pushover analysis methods presented in various codes (FEMA 356; Eurocode-8; ATC-40), are limited to the first-mode-dominated structures, and cannot take higher modes effect into consideration. Therefore, since more than a decade ago, researchers developed enhanced pushover analysis procedures to take higher modes effect into account. The main objective of this study is to propose an enhanced invariant lateral displacement distribution to take higher modes effect into consideration in performing a displacement-based pushover analysis, whereby a set of laterally applied displacements, rather than forces, is monotonically applied to the structure. For this purpose, the effect of different parameters such as the spectral displacement of ground motion, the modal participation factor, and the effective modal participating mass ratio on the lateral displacement distribution is investigated to find the best distribution. The major simplification of this procedure is that the effect of higher modes is concentrated into a single invariant lateral load distribution. Therefore, only one pushover analysis is sufficient without any need to utilize a modal combination rule for combining the responses. The invariant lateral displacement distribution for pushover analysis is then calculated by combining the modal story displacements using the modal combination rules. The seismic demands resulting from the different procedures are compared to those from the more accurate nonlinear response history analysis (NL-RHA) as a benchmark solution. Two structures of different heights including 10 and 20-story special steel moment resisting frames (MRFs) were selected and evaluated. Twenty ground motion records were used to conduct the NL-RHA. The results show that more accurate responses can be obtained in comparison with the conventional lateral loads when the enhanced modal lateral displacement distributions are used.

Keywords: displacement-based pushover, enhanced lateral load distribution, higher modes effect, nonlinear response history analysis (NL-RHA)

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Authors: Bagher Bayat, Wouter Verhoef, Behnaz Arabi, Christiaan Van der Tol

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The aim of this study was to follow the canopy reflectance patterns in response to soil water deficit and to detect trends of changes in biophysical and biochemical parameters of grass (Poa pratensis species). We used visual interpretation, imaging spectroscopy and radiative transfer model inversion to monitor the gradual manifestation of water stress effects in a laboratory setting. Plots of 21 cm x 14.5 cm surface area with Poa pratensis plants that formed a closed canopy were subjected to water stress for 50 days. In a regular weekly schedule, canopy reflectance was measured. In addition, Leaf Area Index (LAI), Chlorophyll (a+b) content (Cab) and Leaf Water Content (Cw) were measured at regular time intervals. The 1-D bidirectional canopy reflectance model SAIL, coupled with the leaf optical properties model PROSPECT, was inverted using hyperspectral measurements by means of an iterative optimization method to retrieve vegetation biophysical and biochemical parameters. The relationships between retrieved LAI, Cab, Cw, and Cs (Senescent material) with soil moisture content were established in two separated groups; stress and non-stressed. To differentiate the water stress condition from the non-stressed condition, a threshold was defined that was based on the laboratory produced Soil Water Characteristic (SWC) curve. All parameters retrieved by model inversion using canopy spectral data showed good correlation with soil water content in the water stress condition. These parameters co-varied with soil moisture content under the stress condition (Chl: R2= 0.91, Cw: R2= 0.97, Cs: R2= 0.88 and LAI: R2=0.48) at the canopy level. To validate the results, the relationship between vegetation parameters that were measured in the laboratory and soil moisture content was established. The results were totally in agreement with the modeling outputs and confirmed the results produced by radiative transfer model inversion and spectroscopy. Since water stress changes all parts of the spectrum, we concluded that analysis of the reflectance spectrum in the VIS-NIR-MIR region is a promising tool for monitoring water stress impacts on vegetation.

Keywords: hyperspectral remote sensing, model inversion, vegetation responses, water stress

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Authors: Woldegerima G. Medhin, Tadele Araya

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Background: Rabies is acute viral encephalitis affecting mainly carnivores and insectivorous but can affect any mammal. Case fatality rate is 100% once clinical signs appear. Rabies has a worldwide distribution in continental regions of Asia and Africa. Globally, rabies is responsible for more than 61000 human deaths annually. An estimation of human mortality rabies in Asia and Africa annually exceed 35172 and 21476 respectively. Ethiopia approximately 2900 people were estimated to die of rabies annually, Tigary region approximately 98 people were estimated to die annually. The aim of this study is to analyze trends, describe, and evaluate the ten years rabies data in Tigray, Ethiopia. Methods: We conducted descriptive epidemiological study from 15-30 February, 2023 of rabies exposure and death in humans by reviewing the health management information system report from Tigray Regional Health Bureau and vaccination coverage of dog population from 2013 to 2022. We used case definition, suspected cases are those bitten by the dogs displaying clinical signs consistent with rabies and confirmed cases were deaths from rabies at time of the exposure. Results: A total 21031 dog bites and 375 deaths report of rabies and 18222 post exposure treatments for humans in Tigray region were used. A suspected rabies patients had shown an increasing trend from 2013 to 2015 and 2018 to 2019. Overall mortality rate was 19/1000 in Tigray. Majority of suspected patients (45%) were age <15 years old. An estimated by Agriculture Bureau of Tigray Region about 12000 owned and 2500 stray dogs are available in the region, but yearly dog vaccination remains low (50%). Conclusion: Rabies is a public health problem in Tigray region. It is highly recommended to vaccinate individually owned dogs and concerned sectors should eliminate stray dogs. Surveillance system should strengthen for estimating the real magnitude, launch preventive and control measures.

Keywords: rabies, Virus, transmision, prevalence

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Authors: Mostafa Shahriari, Theophile Chaumont-Frelet, David Pardo

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Resistivity measurements are used to characterize the Earth’s subsurface. They are categorized into two different groups: (a) those acquired on the Earth’s surface, for instance, controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) and Magnetotellurics (MT), and (b) those recorded with borehole logging instruments such as Logging-While-Drilling (LWD) devices. LWD instruments are mostly used for geo-steering purposes, i.e., to adjust dip and azimuthal angles of a well trajectory to drill along a particular geological target. Modern LWD tools measure all nine components of the magnetic field corresponding to three orthogonal transmitter and receiver orientations. In order to map the Earth’s subsurface and perform geo-steering, we invert measurements using a gradient-based method that utilizes the derivatives of the recorded measurements with respect to the inversion variables. For resistivity measurements, these inversion variables are usually the constant resistivity value of each layer and the bed boundary positions. It is well-known how to compute derivatives with respect to the constant resistivity value of each layer using semi-analytic or numerical methods. However, similar formulas for computing the derivatives with respect to bed boundary positions are unavailable. The main contribution of this work is to provide an adjoint-based formulation for computing derivatives with respect to the bed boundary positions. The key idea to obtain the aforementioned adjoint state formulations for the derivatives is to separate the tangential and normal components of the field and treat them differently. This formulation allows us to compute the derivatives faster and more accurately than with traditional finite differences approximations. In the presentation, we shall first derive a formula for computing the derivatives with respect to the bed boundary positions for the potential equation. Then, we shall extend our formulation to 3D Maxwell’s equations. Finally, by considering a 1D domain and reducing the dimensionality of the problem, which is a common practice in the inversion of resistivity measurements, we shall derive a formulation to compute the derivatives of the measurements with respect to the bed boundary positions using a 1.5D variational formulation. Then, we shall illustrate the accuracy and convergence properties of our formulations by comparing numerical results with the analytical derivatives for the potential equation. For the 1.5D Maxwell’s system, we shall compare our numerical results based on the proposed adjoint-based formulation vs those obtained with a traditional finite difference approach. Numerical results shall show that our proposed adjoint-based technique produces enhanced accuracy solutions while its cost is negligible, as opposed to the finite difference approach that requires the solution of one additional problem per derivative.

Keywords: inverse problem, bed boundary positions, electromagnetism, potential equation

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Authors: Dávid Kovács, Bálint Csanády, Dániel Boros, Iván Ivkovic, Lóránt Nagy, Dalma Tóth-Lakits, László Márkus, András Lukács

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The modeling practice of financial instruments has seen significant change over the last decade due to the recognition of time-dependent and stochastically changing correlations among the market prices or the prices and market characteristics. To represent this phenomenon, the Stochastic Correlation Process (SCP) has come to the fore in the joint modeling of prices, offering a more nuanced description of their interdependence. This approach has allowed for the attainment of realistic tail dependencies, highlighting that prices tend to synchronize more during intense or volatile trading periods, resulting in stronger correlations. Evidence in statistical literature suggests that, similarly to the volatility, the SCP of certain stock prices follows rough paths, which can be described using fractional differential equations. However, estimating parameters for these equations often involves complex and computation-intensive algorithms, creating a necessity for alternative solutions. In this regard, the Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (fOU) process from the family of fractional processes offers a promising path. We can effectively describe the rough SCP by utilizing certain transformations of the fOU. We employed neural networks to understand the behavior of these processes. We had to develop a fast algorithm to generate a valid and suitably large sample from the appropriate process to train the network. With an extensive training set, the neural network can estimate the process parameters accurately and efficiently. Although the initial focus was the fOU, the resulting model displayed broader applicability, thus paving the way for further investigation of other processes in the realm of financial mathematics. The utility of SCP extends beyond its immediate application. It also serves as a springboard for a deeper exploration of fractional processes and for extending existing models that use ordinary Wiener processes to fractional scenarios. In essence, deploying both SCP and fractional processes in financial models provides new, more accurate ways to depict market dynamics.

Keywords: fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, fractional stochastic processes, Heston model, neural networks, stochastic correlation, stochastic differential equations, stochastic volatility

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Authors: Ben Soltane Cheima, Ittansa Yonas Kelbesa

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Speaker Identification (SI) is the task of establishing identity of an individual based on his/her voice characteristics. The SI task is typically achieved by two-stage signal processing: training and testing. The training process calculates speaker specific feature parameters from the speech and generates speaker models accordingly. In the testing phase, speech samples from unknown speakers are compared with the models and classified. Even though performance of speaker identification systems has improved due to recent advances in speech processing techniques, there is still need of improvement. In this paper, a Closed-Set Tex-Independent Speaker Identification System (CISI) based on a Multiple Classifier System (MCS) is proposed, using Mel Frequency Cepstrum Coefficient (MFCC) as feature extraction and suitable combination of vector quantization (VQ) and Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) together with Expectation Maximization algorithm (EM) for speaker modeling. The use of Voice Activity Detector (VAD) with a hybrid approach based on Short Time Energy (STE) and Statistical Modeling of Background Noise in the pre-processing step of the feature extraction yields a better and more robust automatic speaker identification system. Also investigation of Linde-Buzo-Gray (LBG) clustering algorithm for initialization of GMM, for estimating the underlying parameters, in the EM step improved the convergence rate and systems performance. It also uses relative index as confidence measures in case of contradiction in identification process by GMM and VQ as well. Simulation results carried out on voxforge.org speech database using MATLAB highlight the efficacy of the proposed method compared to earlier work.

Keywords: feature extraction, speaker modeling, feature matching, Mel frequency cepstrum coefficient (MFCC), Gaussian mixture model (GMM), vector quantization (VQ), Linde-Buzo-Gray (LBG), expectation maximization (EM), pre-processing, voice activity detection (VAD), short time energy (STE), background noise statistical modeling, closed-set tex-independent speaker identification system (CISI)

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Load forecasting has become crucial in recent years and become popular in forecasting area. Many different power forecasting models have been tried out for this purpose. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for energy policies, healthy and reliable grid systems. Effective power forecasting of renewable energy load leads the decision makers to minimize the costs of electric utilities and power plants. Forecasting tools are required that can be used to predict how much renewable energy can be utilized. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of LSTM-based neural networks for estimating renewable energy loads. In this study, we present models for predicting renewable energy loads based on deep neural networks, especially the Long Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. Deep learning allows multiple layers of models to learn representation of data. LSTM algorithms are able to store information for long periods of time. Deep learning models have recently been used to forecast the renewable energy sources such as predicting wind and solar energy power. Historical load and weather information represent the most important variables for the inputs within the power forecasting models. The dataset contained power consumption measurements are gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. Models use publicly available data from the Turkish Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism. Forecasting studies have been carried out with these data via deep neural networks approach including LSTM technique for Turkish electricity markets. 432 different models are created by changing layers cell count and dropout. The adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) algorithm is used for training as a gradient-based optimizer instead of SGD (stochastic gradient). ADAM performed better than SGD in terms of faster convergence and lower error rates. Models performance is compared according to MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). Best five MAE results out of 432 tested models are 0.66, 0.74, 0.85 and 1.09. The forecasting performance of the proposed LSTM models gives successful results compared to literature searches.

Keywords: deep learning, long short term memory, energy, renewable energy load forecasting

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Authors: Rima T. Alfaraj, Murtadha J. Al Tammar, Khaqan Khan, Khalid M. Alruwaili

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OBJECTIVE/SCOPE (25-75): Caliper logging data provides critical information about wellbore shape and deformations, such as stress-induced borehole breakouts or washouts. Multiarm mechanical caliper logs are often run using wireline, which can be time-consuming, costly, and/or challenging to run in certain formations. To minimize rig time and improve operational safety, it is valuable to develop analytical solutions that can estimate caliper logs using available Logging-While-Drilling (LWD) data without the need to run wireline caliper logs. As a first step, the objective of this paper is to perform statistical analysis using an extensive datasetto identify important physical parameters that should be considered in developing such analytical solutions. METHODS, PROCEDURES, PROCESS (75-100): Caliper logs and LWD data of eleven wells, with a total of more than 80,000 data points, were obtained and imported into a data analytics software for analysis. Several parameters were selected to test the relationship of the parameters with the measured maximum and minimum caliper logs. These parameters includegamma ray, porosity, shear, and compressional sonic velocities, bulk densities, and azimuthal density. The data of the eleven wells were first visualized and cleaned.Using the analytics software, several analyses were then preformed, including the computation of Pearson’s correlation coefficients to show the statistical relationship between the selected parameters and the caliper logs. RESULTS, OBSERVATIONS, CONCLUSIONS (100-200): The results of this statistical analysis showed that some parameters show good correlation to the caliper log data. For instance, the bulk density and azimuthal directional densities showedPearson’s correlation coefficients in the range of 0.39 and 0.57, which wererelatively high when comparedto the correlation coefficients of caliper data with other parameters. Other parameters such as porosity exhibited extremely low correlation coefficients to the caliper data. Various crossplots and visualizations of the data were also demonstrated to gain further insights from the field data. NOVEL/ADDITIVE INFORMATION (25-75): This study offers a unique and novel look into the relative importance and correlation between different LWD measurements and wireline caliper logs via an extensive dataset. The results pave the way for a more informed development of new analytical solutions for estimating the size and shape of the wellbore in real-time while drilling using LWD data.

Keywords: LWD measurements, caliper log, correlations, analysis

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Authors: Diego Abbo

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On February 15, 2012 off the Indian coast of Kerala, in position 091702N-0760180E by the oil tanker Enrica Lexie, flying the Italian flag, bursts of 5.56 x45 caliber shots were fired from assault rifles AR/70 Italian-made Beretta towards the Indian fisher boat St. Anthony. The shots that hit the St. Anthony fishing boat were six, of which two killed the Indian fishermen Ajesh Pink and Valentine Jelestine. From the analysis concerning the kinematic engagement of the two ships and from the autopsy and ballistic results of the Indian judicial authorities it is possible to reconstruct the trajectories of the six aforementioned shots. This essay reconstructs the trajectories of the six shots that cannot be of direct shooting but have undergone a rebound on the water. The investigation carried out scientifically demonstrates the rebound of the blows on the water, the gyrostatic deviation due to the rebound and the tumbling effect always due to the rebound as regards intermediate ballistics. In consideration of the four shots that directly impacted the fishing vessel, the current examination proves, with scientific value, that the trajectories could not be downwards but upwards. Also, the trajectory of two shots that hit to death the two fishermen could not be downwards but only upwards. In fact, this paper demonstrates, with scientific value: The loss of speed of the projectiles due to the rebound on the water; The tumbling effect in the ballistic medium within the two victims; The permanent cavities subject to the injury ballistics and the related ballistic trauma that prevented homeostasis causing bleeding in one case; The thermo-hardening deformation of the bullet found in Valentine Jelestine's skull; The upward and non-downward trajectories. The paper constitutes a tool in forensic ballistics in that it manages to reconstruct, from the final spot of the projectiles fired, all phases of ballistics like the internal one of the weapons that fired, the intermediate one, the terminal one and the penetrative structural one. In general terms the ballistics reconstruction is based on measurable parameters whose entity is contained with certainty within a lower and upper limit. Therefore, quantities that refer to angles, speed, impact energy and firing position of the shooter can be identified within the aforementioned limits. Finally, the investigation into the internal bullet track, obtained from any autopsy examination, offers a significant “lesson learned” but overall a starting point to contain or mitigate bleeding as a rescue from future gunshot wounds.

Keywords: impact physics, intermediate ballistics, terminal ballistics, tumbling effect

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Authors: Ayman Mutahar Alrassas, Shaoran Ren, Renyuan Ren, Hung Vo Thanh, Mohammed Hail Hakimi, Zhenliang Guan

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The significant effect of CO₂ on global climate and the environment has gained more concern worldwide. Enhance oil recovery (EOR) associated with sequestration of CO₂ particularly into the depleted oil reservoir is considered the viable approach under financial limitations since it improves the oil recovery from the existing oil reservoir and boosts the relation between global-scale of CO₂ capture and geological sequestration. Consequently, practical measurements are required to attain large-scale CO₂ emission reduction. This paper presents an integrated modeling workflow to construct an accurate 3D reservoir geological model to estimate the storage capacity of CO₂ under geological uncertainty in an unconventional oil reservoir of the Paleogene Shahejie Formation (Es1) in the block Nv32, Shenvsi oilfield, China. In this regard, geophysical data, including well logs of twenty-two well locations and seismic data, were combined with geological and engineering data and used to construct a 3D reservoir geological modeling. The geological modeling focused on four tight reservoir units of the Shahejie Formation (Es1-x1, Es1-x2, Es1-x3, and Es1-x4). The validated 3D reservoir models were subsequently used to calculate the theoretical CO₂ storage capacity in the block Nv32, Shenvsi oilfield. Well logs were utilized to predict petrophysical properties such as porosity and permeability, and lithofacies and indicate that the Es1 reservoir units are mainly sandstone, shale, and limestone with a proportion of 38.09%, 32.42%, and 29.49, respectively. Well log-based petrophysical results also show that the Es1 reservoir units generally exhibit 2–36% porosity, 0.017 mD to 974.8 mD permeability, and moderate to good net to gross ratios. These estimated values of porosity, permeability, lithofacies, and net to gross were up-scaled and distributed laterally using Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS) and Simulation Sequential Indicator (SIS) methods to generate 3D reservoir geological models. The reservoir geological models show there are lateral heterogeneities of the reservoir properties and lithofacies, and the best reservoir rocks exist in the Es1-x4, Es1-x3, and Es1-x2 units, respectively. In addition, the reservoir volumetric of the Es1 units in block Nv32 was also estimated based on the petrophysical property models and fund to be between 0.554368

Keywords: CO₂ storage capacity, 3D geological model, geological uncertainty, unconventional oil reservoir, block Nv32

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Authors: Doreen Chemutai

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While women's parliamentary representation has increased over the years, most women contest the affirmative action seat (A.A). There is a lack of knowledge on why women prefer the affirmative seat vis- a- vis the open seat. This study argues that comparing women's path on the reserved and open seat to parliamentary representation enables us to pass judgment on why this trend continues. This paper provides a narrative analysis of women members of parliament's (MPs) trajectory in the open seat and Affirmative Action seat to parliamentary representation. Purposive sampling was used to select participants from the Northern Uganda districts of Kitgum, Pader, Oyam, Agago, and Gulu. The eight women MPs chosen for the study completed in-depth interviews exploring their qualifications, careers, and experiences before joining the political office, their party affiliation, and the kind of seat they currently occupy in the 10th parliament. Findings revealed similarities between women on the open and reserved to include; women generally irrespective of the seat they choose to contest for find it difficult to win elections because voters doubt women's effectiveness as leaders. All women as incumbents find it difficult to be re-elected because their evaluation is harsher than that for men. Findings also revealed that women representatives are motivated by their personal lived experiences, community work, educational leadership, and local leadership. The study establishes that the popularity of the party in a given geographical location and the opponents' quality will determine the success of the parliamentary candidate in question irrespective of whether one is contesting on the open or Affirmative seat. However, the study revealed differences between MPs' experiences in the quest for the parliamentary seat, females on the open seat are subjected to gender discrimination in elections by party leadership, stereotyped, and are victims of propaganda in the initial contesting stages. Women who win elections in the open seat have to be superior to their male opponents. In other circumstances where a woman emerges successful, she may be voted for due to other reasons beyond capability, such as physical appearance or sociability. On the other hand, MPs' revelations on affirmative action seats show that the political terrain is smoother despite larger constituencies. Findings show that women on the Affirmative Action seat do not move to the open seat because of the comfort associated with the seat and maintain consistency, since the constituencies doubt the motives of representatives who change from one seat to another. The study concludes that women MPs who contest on the open seat are likely to suffer structural barriers such as gender discrimination and political recruitment bias instead of women on the affirmative seat. This explains why the majority of women contest on the affirmative seat.

Keywords: affirmative action seats, open seats, parliamentary representation, pathways

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Authors: Ming Yi Hsu, Hui Jung Chao

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The anxiety and depression adolescents in Taiwan experience can cause suicide attempts and result in unfortunate deaths. An effective method for relieving anxiety and depression is brisk walking; a moderate and low intensity aerobic exercise, which uses large muscle groups rhythmically. The research purpose was to investigate the effects of a 12-week, school-based, brisk-walking program in decreasing anxiety and depression, and in improving self-concept among high school students living in central Taiwan. A quasi-experiment using the time series design (T1 T2 X T3 T4) was conducted. The Beck Youth Inventories 2 (BYI-II) Chinese version was given four times: the first time T1 was in the 4th week prior to intervention, T2 was in the intervention week, T3 was in the 6th week after the start of the intervention period and T4 was in the 12th week post intervention. The baseline phase of the time series constituted T1 and T2. The intervention phase constituted T2, T3, and T4. The amounts of brisk walking were recorded by self-report The Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) was used to examine the effects of brisk walking on anxiety, depression, and self-concept. The independent t-test was used to compare mean scores on three dependent variables between brisk walking over and less than 90-minutes per week. Findings revealed that levels of anxiety and self-concept had nonsignificant change during the baseline phase, while the level of depression increased significantly. In contrast, the study demonstrated significant decreases in anxiety and depression as well as increases in positive self-concept (p=.001, p<.001, p=.017) during the intervention phase. Furthermore, a subgroup analysis was completed on participants who demonstrated elevated anxiety (23.4%), and depression (29.7%), and below average self-concept (18.6%) at baseline (T2). The subgroup of anxious, depressed, or low self-concept participants who received the brisk-walking intervention demonstrated significant decreases in anxiety and depression, and significant increases in self-concept scores. Participants who engaged in brisk walking over 90 minutes per week reported decreased mean scores on anxiety (t=-2.395, p=.035) and depression (t=-2.142, p=.036) in contrast with those who engaged in brisk-walking time less than 90 minutes per week. Regarding the effects on participants whose anxiety, scores were within the normal range at baseline, there was demonstrated significant decrease in the level of anxiety when they increased their time on brisk walking before each term examination. Overall, the brisk-walking program was effective and feasible to promote adolescents’ mental health by decreasing anxiety and depression as well as elevating self-concept. It also helped adolescents from anxiety before term examinations.

Keywords: adolescents, anxiety, depression, self-concept

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Authors: Jui-Teng Liao

Abstract:

The selected-response (SR) format has been commonly adopted to assess academic reading in both formal and informal testing (i.e., standardized assessment and classroom assessment) because of its strengths in content validity, construct validity, as well as scoring objectivity and efficiency. When developing a second language (L2) reading test, researchers indicate that the longer the test (e.g., more test items) is, the higher reliability and validity the test is likely to produce. However, previous studies have not provided specific guidelines regarding the optimal length of a test or the most suitable number of test items or reading passages. Additionally, reading tests often include different question types (e.g., factual, vocabulary, inferential) that require varying degrees of reading comprehension and cognitive processes. Therefore, it is important to investigate the impact of question types on the number of items in relation to the score reliability of L2 reading tests. Given the popularity of the SR question format and its impact on assessment results on teaching and learning, it is necessary to investigate the degree to which such a question format can reliably measure learners’ L2 reading comprehension. The present study, therefore, adopted the generalizability (G) theory to investigate the score reliability of the SR format in L2 reading tests focusing on how many test items a reading test should include. Specifically, this study aimed to investigate the interaction between question types and the number of items, providing insights into the appropriate item count for different types of questions. G theory is a comprehensive statistical framework used for estimating the score reliability of tests and validating their results. Data were collected from 108 English as a second language student who completed an English reading test comprising factual, vocabulary, and inferential questions in the SR format. The computer program mGENOVA was utilized to analyze the data using multivariate designs (i.e., scenarios). Based on the results of G theory analyses, the findings indicated that the number of test items had a critical impact on the score reliability of an L2 reading test. Furthermore, the findings revealed that different types of reading questions required varying numbers of test items for reliable assessment of learners’ L2 reading proficiency. Further implications for teaching practice and classroom-based assessments are discussed.

Keywords: second language reading assessment, validity and reliability, Generalizability theory, Academic reading, Question format

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Authors: Johnson Adafin, James O. B. Rotimi, Suzanne Wilkinson, Abimbola O. Windapo

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An aspect of client expenditure management that requires attention is the level of accuracy achievable in design-stage elemental cost planning. This has been a major concern for construction clients and practitioners in New Zealand (NZ). Pre-tender estimating inaccuracies are significantly influenced by the level of risk information available to estimators. Proper cost planning activities should ensure the production of a project’s likely construction costs (initial and final), and subsequent cost control activities should prevent unpleasant consequences of cost overruns, disputes and project abandonment. If risks were properly identified and priced at the design stage, observed variance between design-stage elemental cost plans (ECPs) and final tender sums (FTS) (initial contract sums) could be reduced. This study investigates the variations between design-stage ECPs and FTS of construction projects, with a view to identifying risk factors that are responsible for the observed variance. Data were sourced through interviews, and risk factors were identified by using thematic analysis. Access was obtained to project files from the records of study participants (consultant quantity surveyors), and document analysis was employed in complementing the responses from the interviews. Study findings revealed the discrepancies between ECPs and FTS in the region of -14% and +16%. It is opined in this study that the identified risk factors were responsible for the variability observed. The values obtained from the analysis would enable greater accuracy in the forecast of FTS by Quantity Surveyors. Further, whilst inherent risks in construction project developments are observed globally, these findings have important ramifications for construction projects by expanding existing knowledge on what is needed for reasonable budgetary performance and successful delivery of construction projects. The findings contribute significantly to the study by providing quantitative confirmation to justify the theoretical conclusions generated in the literature from around the world. This therefore adds to and consolidates existing knowledge.

Keywords: accuracy, design-stage, elemental cost plan, final tender sum

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Authors: Sunday B. Alabi, Edikan P. Felix, Aniediong M. Umo

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Crystal size distribution is of great importance in the sugar factories. It determines the market value of granulated sugar and also influences the cost of production of sugar crystals. Typically, sugar is produced using fed-batch vacuum evaporative crystallizer. The crystallization quality is examined by crystal size distribution at the end of the process which is quantified by two parameters: the average crystal size of the distribution in the mean aperture (MA) and the width of the distribution of the coefficient of variation (CV). Lack of real-time measurement of the sugar crystal size hinders its feedback control and eventual optimisation of the crystallization process. An attractive alternative is to use a soft sensor (model-based method) for online estimation of the sugar crystal size. Unfortunately, the available models for sugar crystallization process are not suitable as they do not contain variables that can be measured easily online. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a regression model for estimating the sugar crystal size as a function of input variables which are easy to measure online. This has the potential to provide real-time estimates of crystal size for its effective feedback control. Using 7 input variables namely: initial crystal size (Lo), temperature (T), vacuum pressure (P), feed flowrate (Ff), steam flowrate (Fs), initial super-saturation (S0) and crystallization time (t), preliminary studies were carried out using Minitab 14 statistical software. Based on the existing sugar crystallizer models, and the typical ranges of these 7 input variables, 128 datasets were obtained from a 2-level factorial experimental design. These datasets were used to obtain a simple but online-implementable 6-input crystal size model. It seems the initial crystal size (Lₒ) does not play a significant role. The goodness of the resulting regression model was evaluated. The coefficient of determination, R² was obtained as 0.994, and the maximum absolute relative error (MARE) was obtained as 4.6%. The high R² (~1.0) and the reasonably low MARE values are an indication that the model is able to predict sugar crystal size accurately as a function of the 6 easy-to-measure online variables. Thus, the model can be used as a soft sensor to provide real-time estimates of sugar crystal size during sugar crystallization process in a fed-batch vacuum evaporative crystallizer.

Keywords: crystal size, regression model, soft sensor, sugar, vacuum evaporative crystallizer

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Authors: Badriah Alayidi, Emad Alyahya

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Background: Most people with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) report worsening balance as the condition progresses. Poor balance control is also well known to be a significant risk factor for both falling and fear of falling. The increased risk of falls with disease progression thus makes balance control an essential target of gait rehabilitation amongst people with MS. Intervention programs have developed various methods to improve balance control, and accumulating evidence suggests that exercise programs may help people with MS improve their balance. Among these methods, virtual reality (VR) is growing in popularity as a balance-training technique owing to its potential benefits, including better compliance and greater user happiness. However, it is not clear if a VR environment will induce different balance control mechanisms in MS as compared to healthy individuals or traditional environments. Therefore, this study aims to examine how individuals with MS control their balance in a VR setting. Methodology: The proposed study takes an empirical approach to estimate and determine the role of balance response in persons with MS using a VR environment. It will use primary data collected through patient observations, physiological and biomechanical evaluation of balance, and data analysis. Results: The preliminary systematic review and meta-analysis indicated that there was variability in terms of the outcome assessing balance response in people with MS. The preliminary results of these assessments have the potential to provide essential indicators of the progression of MS and contribute to the individualization of treatment and evaluation of the interventions’ effectiveness. The literature describes patients who have had the opportunity to experiment in VR settings and then used what they have learned in the real world, suggesting that this VR setting could be more appealing than conditional settings. The findings of the proposed study will be beneficial in estimating and determining the effect of VR on balance control in persons with MS. In previous studies, VR was shown to be an interesting approach to neurological rehabilitation, but more data are needed to support this approach in MS. Conclusions: The proposed study enables an assessment of balance and evaluations of a variety of physiological implications related to neural activity as well as biomechanical implications related to movement analysis.

Keywords: multiple sclerosis, virtual reality, postural control, balance

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Authors: Zhe Xu, Jian Li, Lvping Li, Zezheng Dong

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This work is to study an optimized transfer strategy of connecting Earth and Mars via the vicinity of libration points, which have been playing an increasingly important role in trajectory designing on a deep space mission, and can be used as an effective alternative solution for Earth-Mars direct transfer mission in some unusual cases. The use of vicinity of libration points of the sun-planet body system is becoming potential gateways for future interplanetary transfer missions. By adding fuel to cargo spaceships located in spaceports, the interplanetary round-trip exploration shuttle mission of such a system facility can also be a reusable transportation system. In addition, in some cases, when the S/C cruising through invariant manifolds, it can also save a large amount of fuel. Therefore, it is necessary to make an effort on looking for efficient transfer strategies using variant manifold about libration points. It was found that Earth L1/L2 Halo/Lyapunov orbits and Mars L2/L1 Halo/Lyapunov orbits could be connected with reasonable fuel consumption and flight duration with appropriate design. In the paper, the halo hopping method and coplanar circular method are briefly introduced. The former used differential corrections to systematically generate low ΔV transfer trajectories between interplanetary manifolds, while the latter discussed escape and capture trajectories to and from Halo orbits by using impulsive maneuvers at periapsis of the manifolds about libration points. In the following, designs of transfer strategies of the two methods are shown here. A comparative performance analysis of interplanetary transfer strategies of the two methods is carried out accordingly. Comparison of strategies is based on two main criteria: the total fuel consumption required to perform the transfer and the time of flight, as mentioned above. The numeric results showed that the coplanar circular method procedure has certain advantages in cost or duration. Finally, optimized transfer strategy with engineering constraints is searched out and examined to be an effective alternative solution for a given direct transfer mission. This paper investigated main methods and gave out an optimized solution in interplanetary transfer via the vicinity of libration points. Although most of Earth-Mars mission planners prefer to build up a direct transfer strategy for the mission due to its advantage in relatively short time of flight, the strategies given in the paper could still be regard as effective alternative solutions since the advantages mentioned above and longer departure window than direct transfer.

Keywords: circular restricted three-body problem, halo/Lyapunov orbit, invariant manifolds, libration points

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Authors: Hong Nguyen Thi Hai, Ryota Konda, Dat Kieu Tuan, Cao Tran Thanh, Khang Phung Van, Hau Tran Tin, Harry Wu

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Melaleuca cajuputi is a moderately fast-growing species and considered as a multi-purpose tree as it provides fuelwood, piles and frame poles in construction, leaf essential oil and honey. It occurs in Australia, Papua New Guinea, and South-East Asia. M. cajuputi plantation can be harvested on 6-7 year rotations for wood products. Its timber can also be used for pulp and paper, fiber and particle board, producing quality charcoal and potentially sawn timber. However, most reported M. cajuputi breeding programs have been focused on oil production rather than wood production. In this study, breeding program of M. cajuputi aimed to improve wood production was examined by estimating genetic parameters for growth (tree height, diameter at breast height (DBH), and volume), stem form, stiffness (modulus of elasticity (MOE)), bark thickness and bark ratio in a half-sib family progeny trial including 80 families in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. MOE is one of the key wood properties of interest to the wood industry. Non-destructive wood stiffness was measured indirectly by acoustic velocity using FAKOPP Microsecond Timer and especially unaffected by bark mass. Narrow-sense heritability for the seven traits ranged from 0.13 to 0.27 at age 7 years. MOE and stem form had positive genetic correlations with growth while the negative correlation between bark ratio and growth was also favorable. Breeding for simultaneous improvement of multiple traits, faster growth with higher MOE and reduction of bark ratio should be possible in M. cajuputi. Index selection based on volume and MOE showed genetic gains of 31 % in volume, 6 % in MOE and 13 % in stem form. In addition, heritability and age-age genetic correlations for growth traits increased with time and optimal early selection age for growth of M. cajuputi based on DBH alone was 4 years. Selected thinning resulted in an increase of heritability due to considerable reduction of phenotypic variation but little effect on genetic variation.

Keywords: acoustic velocity, age-age correlation, bark thickness, heritability, Melaleuca cajuputi, stiffness, thinning effect

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Authors: Desplanches Maxime

Abstract:

Accurate estimation of the remaining useful life of lithium-ion batteries for electronic devices is crucial. Data-driven methodologies encounter challenges related to data volume and acquisition protocols, particularly in capturing a comprehensive range of aging indicators. To address these limitations, we propose a hybrid approach that integrates an electrochemical model with state-of-the-art data analysis techniques, yielding a comprehensive database. Our methodology involves infusing an aging phenomenon into a Newman model, leading to the creation of an extensive database capturing various aging states based on non-destructive parameters. This database serves as a robust foundation for subsequent analysis. Leveraging advanced data analysis techniques, notably principal component analysis and t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding, we extract pivotal information from the data. This information is harnessed to construct a regression function using either random forest or support vector machine algorithms. The resulting predictor demonstrates a 5% error margin in estimating remaining battery life, providing actionable insights for optimizing usage. Furthermore, the database was built from the Newman model calibrated for aging and performance using data from a European project called Teesmat. The model was then initialized numerous times with different aging values, for instance, with varying thicknesses of SEI (Solid Electrolyte Interphase). This comprehensive approach ensures a thorough exploration of battery aging dynamics, enhancing the accuracy and reliability of our predictive model. Of particular importance is our reliance on the database generated through the integration of the electrochemical model. This database serves as a crucial asset in advancing our understanding of aging states. Beyond its capability for precise remaining life predictions, this database-driven approach offers valuable insights for optimizing battery usage and adapting the predictor to various scenarios. This underscores the practical significance of our method in facilitating better decision-making regarding lithium-ion battery management.

Keywords: Li-ion battery, aging, diagnostics, data analysis, prediction, machine learning, electrochemical model, regression

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Authors: Panagiotis Lemonakis, Theodoros Αlimonakis, George Kaliabetsos, Nikos Eliou

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It is very well known that certain vertical and longitudinal slopes have to be assured in order to achieve adequate rainwater runoff from the pavement. The selection of longitudinal slopes, between the turning points of the vertical curves that meet the afore-mentioned requirement does not ensure adequate drainage because the same condition must also be applied at the transition curves. In this way none of the pavement edges’ slopes (as well as any other spot that lie on the pavement) will be opposite to the longitudinal slope of the rotation axis. Horizontal and vertical alignment must be properly combined in order to form a road which resultant slope does not take small values and hence, checks must be performed in every cross section and every chainage of the road. The present research investigates the rain water runoff from the road surface in order to identify the conditions under which, areas of inadequate drainage are being created, to analyze the rainwater behavior in such areas, to provide design examples of good and bad drainage zones and to track down certain motorcycle types which might encounter hazardous situations due to the presence of water film between the pavement and both of their tires resulting loss of traction. Moreover, it investigates the combination of longitudinal and cross slope values in critical pavement areas. It should be pointed out that the drainage gradient is analytically calculated for the whole road width and not just for an oblique slope per chainage (combination of longitudinal grade and cross slope). Lastly, various combinations of horizontal and vertical design are presented, indicating the crucial zones of bad pavement drainage. The key conclusion of the study is that any type of motorcycle will travel for some time inside the area of improper runoff for a certain time frame which depends on the speed and the trajectory that the rider chooses along the transition curve. Taking into account that on this section the rider will have to lean his motorcycle and hence reduce the contact area of his tire with the pavement it is apparent that any variations on the friction value due to the presence of a water film may lead to serious problems regarding his safety. The water runoff from the road pavement is improved when between reverse longitudinal slopes, crest instead of sag curve is chosen and particularly when its edges coincide with the edges of the horizontal curve. Lastly, the results of the investigation have shown that the variation of the longitudinal slope involves the vertical shift of the center of the poor water runoff area. The magnitude of this area increases as the length of the transition curve increases.

Keywords: drainage, motorcycle safety, superelevation, transition curves, vertical grade

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Authors: Chiqian Zhang, Kyle D. McIntosh, Nathan Sienkiewicz, Ian Struewing, Erin A. Stelzer, Jennifer L. Graham, Jingrang Lu

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Phytoplankton plays an essential role in freshwater aquatic ecosystems and is the primary group synthesizing organic carbon and providing food sources or energy to ecosystems. Therefore, the identification and quantification of phytoplankton are important for estimating and assessing ecosystem productivity (carbon fixation), water quality, and eutrophication. Microscopy is the current gold standard for identifying and quantifying phytoplankton composition and abundance. However, microscopic analysis of phytoplankton is time-consuming, has a low sample throughput, and requires deep knowledge and rich experience in microbial morphology to implement. To improve this situation, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) was considered for phytoplankton identification and quantification. Using qPCR to assess phytoplankton composition and abundance, however, has not been comprehensively evaluated. This study focused on: 1) conducting a comprehensive performance comparison of qPCR and microscopy techniques in identifying and quantifying phytoplankton and 2) examining the use of qPCR as a tool for assessing eutrophication. Twelve large rivers located throughout the United States were evaluated using data collected from 2017 to 2019 to understand the relation between qPCR-based phytoplankton abundance and eutrophication. This study revealed that temporal variation of phytoplankton abundance in the twelve rivers was limited within years (from late spring to late fall) and among different years (2017, 2018, and 2019). Midcontinent rivers had moderately greater phytoplankton abundance than eastern and western rivers, presumably because midcontinent rivers were more eutrophic. The study also showed that qPCR- and microscope-determined phytoplankton abundance had a significant positive linear correlation (adjusted R² 0.772, p-value < 0.001). In addition, phytoplankton abundance assessed via qPCR showed promise as an indicator of the eutrophication status of those rivers, with oligotrophic rivers having low phytoplankton abundance and eutrophic rivers having (relatively) high phytoplankton abundance. This study demonstrated that qPCR could serve as an alternative tool to traditional microscopy for phytoplankton quantification and eutrophication assessment in freshwater rivers.

Keywords: phytoplankton, eutrophication, river, qPCR, microscopy, spatiotemporal variation

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Authors: Arulselvi Subramanian, Albert Venencia, Sanjeev Bhoi

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Coagulopathy of trauma is an early endogenous coagulation abnormality that occurs shortly resulting in high mortality. In emergency trauma situations, viscoelastic tests may be better in identifying the various phenotypes of coagulopathy and demonstrate the contribution of platelet function to coagulation. We aimed to determine thrombin generation and clot strength, by estimating a ratio of Maximum amplitude and R-time (MA-R ratio) for identifying trauma coagulopathy and predicting subsequent mortality. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort analysis of acutely injured trauma patients of the adult age groups (18- 50 years), admitted within 24hrs of injury, for one year at a Level I trauma center and followed up on 3rd day and 5th day of injury. Patients with h/o coagulation abnormalities, liver disease, renal impairment, with h/o intake of drugs were excluded. Thromboelastography was done and a ratio was calculated by dividing the MA by the R-time (MA-R). Patients were further stratified into sub groups based on the calculated MA-R quartiles. First sampling was done within 24 hours of injury; follow up on 3rd and 5thday of injury. Mortality was the primary outcome. Results: 100 acutely injured patients [average, 36.6±14.3 years; 94% male; injury severity score 12.2(9-32)] were included in the study. Median (min-max) on admission MA-R ratio was 15.01(0.4-88.4) which declined 11.7(2.2-61.8) on day three and slightly rose on day 5 13.1(0.06-68). There were no significant differences between sub groups in regard to age, or gender. In the lowest MA-R ratios subgroup; MA-R1 (<8.90; n = 27), injury severity score was significantly elevated. MA-R2 (8.91-15.0; n = 23), MA-R3 (15.01-19.30; n = 24) and MA-R4 (>19.3; n = 26) had no difference between their admission laboratory investigations, however slight decline was observed in hemoglobin, red blood cell count and platelet counts compared to the other subgroups. Also significantly prolonged R time, shortened alpha angle and MA were seen in MA-R1. Elevated incidence of mortality also significantly correlated with on admission low MA-R ratios (p 0.003). Temporal changes in the MA-R ratio did not correlated with mortality. Conclusion: The MA-R ratio provides a snapshot of early clot function, focusing specifically on thrombin burst and clot strength. In our observation, patients with the lowest MA-R time ratio (MA-R1) had significantly increased mortality compared with all other groups (45.5% MA-R1 compared with <25% in MA-R2 to MA-R3, and 9.1% in MA-R4; p < 0.003). Maximum amplitude and R-time may prove highly useful to predict at-risk patients early, when other physiologic indicators are absent.

Keywords: coagulopathy, trauma, thromboelastography, mortality

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