Search results for: operational risk
7050 Optimal Secondary Prevention and Background Risk
Authors: Mohamed Anouar Razgallah
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This paper examines in the context of a one-period model the impact of background risk on the optimal secondary prevention. We conduct our study based on various configurations of the background risk. We intend to show that in most cases the level of secondary prevention effort varied after the introduction of background risk, however, in very few cases this level remains constant.Keywords: secondary prevention, primary prevention, background risk, ecomomics
Procedia PDF Downloads 4207049 Designing an Operational Control System for the Continuous Cycle of Industrial Technological Processes Using Fuzzy Logic
Authors: Teimuraz Manjapharashvili, Ketevani Manjaparashvili
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Fuzzy logic is a modeling method for complex or ill-defined systems and is a relatively new mathematical approach. Its basis is to consider overlapping cases of parameter values and define operations to manipulate these cases. Fuzzy logic can successfully create operative automatic management or appropriate advisory systems. Fuzzy logic techniques in various operational control technologies have grown rapidly in the last few years. Fuzzy logic is used in many areas of human technological activity. In recent years, fuzzy logic has proven its great potential, especially in the automation of industrial process control, where it allows to form of a control design based on the experience of experts and the results of experiments. The engineering of chemical technological processes uses fuzzy logic in optimal management, and it is also used in process control, including the operational control of continuous cycle chemical industrial, technological processes, where special features appear due to the continuous cycle and correct management acquires special importance. This paper discusses how intelligent systems can be developed, in particular, how fuzzy logic can be used to build knowledge-based expert systems in chemical process engineering. The implemented projects reveal that the use of fuzzy logic in technological process control has already given us better solutions than standard control techniques. Fuzzy logic makes it possible to develop an advisory system for decision-making based on the historical experience of the managing operator and experienced experts. The present paper deals with operational control and management systems of continuous cycle chemical technological processes, including advisory systems. Because of the continuous cycle, many features are introduced in them compared to the operational control of other chemical technological processes. Among them, there is a greater risk of transitioning to emergency mode; the return from emergency mode to normal mode must be done very quickly due to the impossibility of stopping the technological process due to the release of defective products during this period (i.e., receiving a loss), accordingly, due to the need for high qualification of the operator managing the process, etc. For these reasons, operational control systems of continuous cycle chemical technological processes have been specifically discussed, as they are different systems. Special features of such systems in control and management were brought out, which determine the characteristics of the construction of control and management systems. To verify the findings, the development of an advisory decision-making information system for operational control of a lime kiln using fuzzy logic, based on the creation of a relevant expert-targeted knowledge base, was discussed. The control system has been implemented in a real lime production plant with a lime burn kiln, which has shown that suitable and intelligent automation improves operational management, reduces the risks of releasing defective products, and, therefore, reduces costs. The special advisory system was successfully used in the said plant both for the improvement of operational management and, if necessary, for the training of new operators due to the lack of an appropriate training institution.Keywords: chemical process control systems, continuous cycle industrial technological processes, fuzzy logic, lime kiln
Procedia PDF Downloads 97048 The Influence of Operational Changes on Efficiency and Sustainability of Manufacturing Firms
Authors: Dimitrios Kafetzopoulos
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Nowadays, companies are more concerned with adopting their own strategies for increased efficiency and sustainability. Dynamic environments are fertile fields for developing operational changes. For this purpose, organizations need to implement an advanced management philosophy that boosts changes to companies’ operation. Changes refer to new applications of knowledge, ideas, methods, and skills that can generate unique capabilities and leverage an organization’s competitiveness. So, in order to survive and compete in the global and niche markets, companies should incorporate the adoption of operational changes into their strategy with regard to their products and their processes. Creating the appropriate culture for changes in terms of products and processes helps companies to gain a sustainable competitive advantage in the market. Thus, the purpose of this study is to investigate the role of both incremental and radical changes into operations of a company, taking into consideration not only product changes but also process changes, and continues by measuring the impact of these two types of changes on business efficiency and sustainability of Greek manufacturing companies. The above discussion leads to the following hypotheses: H1: Radical operational changes have a positive impact on firm efficiency. H2: Incremental operational changes have a positive impact on firm efficiency. H3: Radical operational changes have a positive impact on firm sustainability. H4: Incremental operational changes have a positive impact on firm sustainability. In order to achieve the objectives of the present study, a research study was carried out in Greek manufacturing firms. A total of 380 valid questionnaires were received while a seven-point Likert scale was used to measure all the questionnaire items of the constructs (radical changes, incremental changes, efficiency and sustainability). The constructs of radical and incremental operational changes, each one as one variable, has been subdivided into product and process changes. Non-response bias, common method variance, multicollinearity, multivariate normal distribution and outliers have been checked. Moreover, the unidimensionality, reliability and validity of the latent factors were assessed. Exploratory Factor Analysis and Confirmatory Factor Analysis were applied to check the factorial structure of the constructs and the factor loadings of the items. In order to test the research hypotheses, the SEM technique was applied (maximum likelihood method). The goodness of fit of the basic structural model indicates an acceptable fit of the proposed model. According to the present study findings, radical operational changes and incremental operational changes significantly influence both efficiency and sustainability of Greek manufacturing firms. However, it is in the dimension of radical operational changes, meaning those in process and product, that the most significant contributors to firm efficiency are to be found, while its influence on sustainability is low albeit statistically significant. On the contrary, incremental operational changes influence sustainability more than firms’ efficiency. From the above, it is apparent that the embodiment of the concept of the changes into the products and processes operational practices of a firm has direct and positive consequences for what it achieves from efficiency and sustainability perspective.Keywords: incremental operational changes, radical operational changes, efficiency, sustainability
Procedia PDF Downloads 1307047 Project Risk Assessment of the Mining Industry of Ghana
Authors: Charles Amoatey
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The issue of risk in the mining industry is a global phenomenon and the Ghanaian mining industry is not exempted. The main purpose of this study is to identify the critical risk factors affecting the mining industry. The study takes an integrated view of the mining industry by examining the contribution of various risk factors to mining project failure in Ghana. A questionnaire survey was conducted to solicit the critical risk factors from key mining practitioners. About 80 respondents from 11 mining firms participated in the survey. The study identified 22 risk factors contributing to mining project failure in Ghana. The five most critical risk factors based on both probability of occurrence and impact were: (1) unstable commodity prices, (2) inflation/exchange rate, (3) land degradation, (4) high cost of living and (5) government bureaucracy for obtaining licenses. Furthermore, the study found that risk assessment in the mining sector has a direct link with mining project sustainability. Mitigation measures for addressing the identified risk factors were discussed. The key findings emphasize the need for a comprehensive risk management culture in the entire mining industry.Keywords: risk, assessment, mining, Ghana
Procedia PDF Downloads 4457046 Impact of Design Choices on the Life Cycle Energy of Modern Buildings
Authors: Mahsa Karimpour, Martin Belusko, Ke Xing, Frank Bruno
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Traditionally the embodied energy of design choices which reduce operational energy were assumed to have a negligible impact on the life cycle energy of buildings. However with new buildings having considerably lower operational energy, the significance of embodied energy increases. A life cycle assessment of a population of house designs was conducted in a mild and mixed climate zone. It was determined not only that embodied energy dominates life cycle energy, but that the impact on embodied of design choices was of equal significance to the impact on operational energy.Keywords: building life cycle energy, embodied energy, energy design measures, low energy buildings
Procedia PDF Downloads 7647045 Comprehensive Risk Assessment Model in Agile Construction Environment
Authors: Jolanta Tamošaitienė
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The article focuses on a developed comprehensive model to be used in an agile environment for the risk assessment and selection based on multi-attribute methods. The model is based on a multi-attribute evaluation of risk in construction, and the determination of their optimality criterion values are calculated using complex Multiple Criteria Decision-Making methods. The model may be further applied to risk assessment in an agile construction environment. The attributes of risk in a construction project are selected by applying the risk assessment condition to the construction sector, and the construction process efficiency in the construction industry accounts for the agile environment. The paper presents the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment. It provides a background and a description of the proposed model and the developed analysis of the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment with the criteria.Keywords: assessment, environment, agile, model, risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 2487044 Financial Regulations and Insolvency Risk: Empirical Evidence from Commercial Banks of Pakistan
Authors: Shumaila Zeb
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The proposed study aims to investigate insolvency risk of commercial banks of Pakistan. Furthermore, it empirically estimates the effect of already implemented financial regulations on the insolvency risk of banks. To carry out the empirical analysis, a balanced bank-level panel data covering the period 2008-2016 is used. The Z-score is used for calculating the insolvency risk of each bank. The panel regression is used to investigate the relationship between financial regulations and insolvency risk of banks. The empirics reveal that the financial regulations enforced by State Bank of Pakistan have significant impacts on the insolvency risk of banks. The results further indicate that loan ratio and reserve ratio are positively and significantly related to the insolvency risk of banks.Keywords: insolvency risk, Z-score, financial regulations, banks
Procedia PDF Downloads 1927043 Influence of Different Rhizome Sizes and Operational Speed on the Field Capacity and Efficiency of a Three–Row Turmeric Rhizome Planter
Authors: Muogbo Chukwudi Peter, Gbabo Agidi
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Influence of different turmeric rhizome sizes and machine operational speed on the field capacity and efficiency of a developed prototype tractor-drawn turmeric planter was studied. This was done with a view to ascertaining how the field capacity and field efficiency were affected by the turmeric rhizome lengths and tractor operational speed. The turmeric rhizome planter consists of trapezoidal hopper, grooved cylindrical metering devise, rectangular frame, ground wheels made of mild steel, furrow opener, chain/sprocket drive system, three linkage point seed delivery tube and press wheel. The experiment was randomized in a factorial design of three levels of rhizome lengths (30, 45 and 60 mm) and operational speeds of 8, 10, and 12 kmh-1. About 3 kg cleaned turmeric rhizomes were introduced into each hopper of the planter and were planted 30 m2 of experimental plot. During the field evaluation of the planter, the effective field capacity, field efficiency, missing index, multiple index and percentage rhizome bruise were evaluated. 30.08% was recorded for maximum percentage bruise on the rhizome. The mean effective field capacity ranged between 0.63 – 0.96hah-1 at operational speeds of 8 and 12kmh-1 respectively and 45 mm rhizome length. The result also shows that the mean efficiency was obtained to be 65.8%. The percentage rhizome bruise decreases with increase in operational speed. The highest and lowest percentage turmeric rhizome miss index of 35% were recorded for turmeric rhizome length of 30 mm at a speed of 10 kmhr-1 and 8 kmhr-1, respectively. The potential implications of the experimental result is to determine the optimal machine process conditions for higher field capacity and gross reduction in mechanical injury (bruise) of planted turmeric rhizomes.Keywords: rhizome sizes, operational speed, field capacity. field efficiency, turmeric rhizome, planter
Procedia PDF Downloads 527042 Dissecting ESG: The Impact of Environmental, Social, and Governance Factors on Stock Price Risk in European Markets
Authors: Sylwia Frydrych, Jörg Prokop, Michał Buszko
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This study investigates the complex relationship between corporate ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) performance and stock price risk within the European market context. By analyzing a dataset of 435 companies across 19 European countries, the research assesses the impact of both combined ESG performance and its individual components on various risk measures, including volatility, idiosyncratic risk, systematic risk, and downside risk. The findings reveal that while overall ESG scores do not significantly influence stock price risk, disaggregating the ESG components uncovers significant relationships. Governance practices are shown to consistently reduce market risk, positioning them as critical in risk management. However, environmental engagement tends to increase risk, particularly in times of regulatory shifts like those introduced in the EU post-2018. This research provides valuable insights for investors and corporate managers on the nuanced roles of ESG factors in financial risk, emphasizing the need for careful consideration of each ESG pillar in decision-making processes.Keywords: ESG performance, ESG factors, ESG pillars, ESG scores
Procedia PDF Downloads 127041 A Qualitative Study into the Success and Challenges in Embedding Evidence-Based Research Methods in Operational Policing Interventions
Authors: Ahmed Kadry, Gwyn Dodd
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There has been a growing call globally for police forces to embed evidence-based policing research methods into police interventions in order to better understand and evaluate their impact. This research study highlights the success and challenges that police forces may encounter when trying to embed evidence-based research methods within their organisation. 10 in-depth qualitative interviews were conducted with police officers and staff at Greater Manchester Police (GMP) who were tasked with integrating evidence-based research methods into their operational interventions. The findings of the study indicate that with adequate resources and individual expertise, evidence-based research methods can be applied to operational work, including the testing of initiatives with strict controls in order to fully evaluate the impact of an intervention. However, the findings also indicate that this may only be possible where an operational intervention is heavily resourced with police officers and staff who have a strong understanding of evidence-based policing research methods, attained for example through their own graduate studies. In addition, the findings reveal that ample planning time was needed to trial operational interventions that would require strict parameters for what would be tested and how it would be evaluated. In contrast, interviewees underscored that operational interventions with the need for a speedy implementation were less likely to have evidence-based research methods applied. The study contributes to the wider literature on evidence-based policing by providing considerations for police forces globally wishing to apply evidence-based research methods to more of their operational work in order to understand their impact. The study also provides considerations for academics who work closely with police forces in assisting them to embed evidence-based policing. This includes how academics can provide their expertise to police decision makers wanting to underpin their work through evidence-based research methods, such as providing guidance on how to evaluate the impact of their work with varying research methods that they may otherwise be unaware of.Keywords: evidence based policing, evidence-based practice, operational policing, organisational change
Procedia PDF Downloads 1297040 Stochastic Modeling and Productivity Analysis of a Flexible Manufacturing System
Authors: Mehmet Savsar, Majid Aldaihani
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Flexible Manufacturing Systems (FMS) are used to produce a variety of parts on the same equipment. Therefore, their utilization is higher than traditional machining systems. Higher utilization, on the other hand, results in more frequent equipment failures and additional need for maintenance. Therefore, it is necessary to carefully analyze operational characteristics and productivity of FMS or Flexible Manufacturing Cells (FMC), which are smaller configuration of FMS, before installation or during their operation. Appropriate models should be developed to determine production rates based on operational conditions, including equipment reliability, availability, and repair capacity. In this paper, a stochastic model is developed for an automated FMC system, which consists of two machines served by two robots and a single repairman. The model is used to determine system productivity and equipment utilization under different operational conditions, including random machine failures, random repairs, and limited repair capacity. The results are compared to previous study results for FMC system with sufficient repair capacity assigned to each machine. The results show that the model will be useful for design engineers and operational managers to analyze performance of manufacturing systems at the design or operational stages.Keywords: flexible manufacturing, FMS, FMC, stochastic modeling, production rate, reliability, availability
Procedia PDF Downloads 5127039 Turkey Disaster Risk Management System Project (TAFRISK)
Authors: Ahmet Parlak, Celalettin Bilgen
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In order to create an effective early warning system, Identification of the risks, preparation and carrying out risk modeling of risk scenarios, taking into account the shortcomings of the old disaster scenarios should be used to improve the system. In the light of this, the importance of risk modeling in creating an effective early warning system is understood. In the scope of TAFRISK project risk modeling trend analysis report on risk modeling developed and a demonstration was conducted for Risk Modeling for flood and mass movements. For risk modeling R&D, studies have been conducted to determine the information, and source of the information, to be gathered, to develop algorithms and to adapt the current algorithms to Turkey’s conditions for determining the risk score in the high disaster risk areas. For each type of the disaster; Disaster Deficit Index (DDI), Local Disaster Index (LDI), Prevalent Vulnerability Index (PVI), Risk Management Index (RMI) have been developed as disaster indices taking danger, sensitivity, fragility, and vulnerability, the physical and economic damage into account in the appropriate scale of the respective type.Keywords: disaster, hazard, risk modeling, sensor
Procedia PDF Downloads 4197038 Effect of Freight Transport Intensity on Firm Performance: Mediating Role of Operational Capability
Authors: Bonaventure Naab Dery, Abdul Muntaka Samad
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During the past two decades, huge population growth has been recorded in developing countries. Thisled to an increase in the demand for transport services for human and merchandises. The study sought to examine the effect of freight transport intensity on firm performance. Among others, this study sought to examine the link between freight transport intensity and firm performance; the link between operational capability and firm performance, and the mediating role of operational capability on the relationship between freight transport intensity and firm performance. The study used a descriptive research design and a quantitative research approach. Questionnaireswereusedfor the data collection through snowball sampling and purposive sampling. SPSS and Mplus are being used to analyze the data. It is anticipated that, when the data is analyzed, it would validate the hypotheses that have been proposed by the researchers. Base on the findings, relevant recommendations would be made for managerial implications and future studies.Keywords: freight transport intensity, freight economy transport intensity, freight efficiency transport intensity, operational capability, firm performance
Procedia PDF Downloads 1397037 Risk Identification of Investment Feasibility in Indonesia’s Toll Road Infrastructure Investment
Authors: Christo Februanto Putra
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This paper presents risk identification that affects investment feasibility on toll road infrastructure in Indonesia using qualitative methods survey based on the expert practitioner in investor, contractor, and state officials. The problems on infrastructure investment in Indonesia, especially on KPBU model contract, is many risk factors in the investment plan is not calculated in detail thoroughly. Risk factor is a value used to provide an overview of the risk level assessment of an event which is a function of the probability of the occurrence and the consequences of the risks that arise. As results of the survey which is to show which risk factors impacts directly to the investment feasibility and rank them by their impacts on the investment.Keywords: risk identification, indonesia toll road, investment feasibility
Procedia PDF Downloads 2727036 Managing of Work Risk in Small and Medium-Size Companies
Authors: Janusz K. Grabara, Bartłomiej Okwiet, Sebastian Kot
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The purpose of the article is presentation and analysis of the aspect of job security in small and medium-size enterprises in Poland with reference to other EU countries. We show the theoretical aspects of the risk with reference to managing small and medium enterprises, next risk management in small and medium enterprises in Poland, which were subjected to a detailed analysis. We show in detail the risk associated with the operation of the mentioned above companies, as well as analyses its levels on various stages and for different kinds of conducted activity.Keywords: job safety, SME, work risk, risk management
Procedia PDF Downloads 4887035 A Multilevel Approach for Stroke Prediction Combining Risk Factors and Retinal Images
Authors: Jeena R. S., Sukesh Kumar A.
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Stroke is one of the major reasons of adult disability and morbidity in many of the developing countries like India. Early diagnosis of stroke is essential for timely prevention and cure. Various conventional statistical methods and computational intelligent models have been developed for predicting the risk and outcome of stroke. This research work focuses on a multilevel approach for predicting the occurrence of stroke based on various risk factors and invasive techniques like retinal imaging. This risk prediction model can aid in clinical decision making and help patients to have an improved and reliable risk prediction.Keywords: prediction, retinal imaging, risk factors, stroke
Procedia PDF Downloads 2957034 How to Use Big Data in Logistics Issues
Authors: Mehmet Akif Aslan, Mehmet Simsek, Eyup Sensoy
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Big Data stands for today’s cutting-edge technology. As the technology becomes widespread, so does Data. Utilizing massive data sets enable companies to get competitive advantages over their adversaries. Out of many area of Big Data usage, logistics has significance role in both commercial sector and military. This paper lays out what big data is and how it is used in both military and commercial logistics.Keywords: big data, logistics, operational efficiency, risk management
Procedia PDF Downloads 6377033 Analysis of the Predictive Performance of Value at Risk Estimations in Times of Financial Crisis
Authors: Alexander Marx
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Measuring and mitigating market risk is essential for the stability of enterprises, especially for major banking corporations and investment bank firms. To employ these risk measurement and mitigation processes, the Value at Risk (VaR) is the most commonly used risk metric by practitioners. In the past years, we have seen significant weaknesses in the predictive performance of the VaR in times of financial market crisis. To address this issue, the purpose of this study is to investigate the value-at-risk (VaR) estimation models and their predictive performance by applying a series of backtesting methods on the stock market indices of the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US, Europe). The study employs parametric, non-parametric, and semi-parametric VaR estimation models and is conducted during three different periods which cover the most recent financial market crisis: the overall period (2006–2022), the global financial crisis period (2008–2009), and COVID-19 period (2020–2022). Since the regulatory authorities have introduced and mandated the Conditional Value at Risk (Expected Shortfall) as an additional regulatory risk management metric, the study will analyze and compare both risk metrics on their predictive performance.Keywords: value at risk, financial market risk, banking, quantitative risk management
Procedia PDF Downloads 887032 Uncertainty in Risk Modeling
Authors: Mueller Jann, Hoffmann Christian Hugo
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Conventional quantitative risk management in banking is a risk factor of its own, because it rests on assumptions such as independence and availability of data which do not hold when rare events of extreme consequences are involved. There is a growing recognition of the need for alternative risk measures that do not make these assumptions. We propose a novel method for modeling the risk associated with investment products, in particular derivatives, by using a formal language for specifying financial contracts. Expressions in this language are interpreted in the category of values annotated with (a formal representation of) uncertainty. The choice of uncertainty formalism thus becomes a parameter of the model, so it can be adapted to the particular application and it is not constrained to classical probabilities. We demonstrate our approach using a simple logic-based uncertainty model and a case study in which we assess the risk of counter party default in a portfolio of collateralized loans.Keywords: risk model, uncertainty monad, derivatives, contract algebra
Procedia PDF Downloads 5697031 The Study of the Awareness of Sexual Risk Bahaviors and Sexual Risk Behaviors of Adolescents Students
Authors: Sumitta Sawangtook, Parichart Thano
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The purposes of research were to study the relationship between the awareness of sexual risk behaviors and sexual risk behaviors of adolescent students, and to compare the sexual risk behaviors of adolescent students by gender, education level, sweetheart’s number, achievement, sexual value, and the influence of the friendship group. The research sample of 344 sevenths through twelfth grade students in secondary school for the academic year 2014, Dindang district Bangkok was selected by simple random sampling. The research instruments are: 1) demographic questionnaire 2) evaluation form of the awareness of sexual risk behaviors 3) questionnaire about sexual value 4) questionnaire about the influence of the friendship group and 5) evaluation form of sexual risk behaviors. They were used for data collections which are subsequently analyzed by percentage, mean, standard deviation, t-test, One-way Analysis of Variances. The results of this study were presented as follow: 1) The awareness of sexual risk behaviors was negatively correlated with sexual risk behaviors of adolescent students (r=-.27, p=.000). 2) There was significant difference at .05 level in sexual risk behaviors among adolescent students who had gender difference (t=5.90, p=.000). 3) There was no significant difference at .05 level in sexual risk behaviors among adolescent students who had the different level of education (t=1.41, p=.16). 4) There was significant difference at .05 level in sexual risk behaviors among adolescent students who had the different level of sweetheart’s number (F=13.03, p=.000). 5) There was significant difference at .05 level in sexual risk behaviors among adolescent students who had the different level of achievement (F=4.77, p=.009). 6) There were significant difference at .05 level in sexual risk behaviors among adolescent students who had different level of sexual value (F=50.91, p=.000) 7) There were significant difference at .05 level in sexual risk behaviors among adolescent students who had different level of the influence of the friendship group (F=98.41, p=.000).Keywords: the awareness of sexual risk behaviors, sexual risk behaviors, adolescent students
Procedia PDF Downloads 4547030 The Analysis Fleet Operational Performance as an Indicator of Load and Haul Productivity
Authors: Linet Melisa Daubanes, Nhleko Monique Chiloane
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The shovel-truck system is the most prevalent material handling system used in surface mining operations. Material handling entails the loading and hauling of material from production areas to dumping areas. The material handling process has operational delays that have a negative impact on the productivity of the load and haul fleet. Factors that may contribute to operational delays include shovel-truck mismatch, haul routes, machine breakdowns, extreme weather conditions, etc. The aim of this paper is to investigate factors that contribute to operational delays affecting the productivity of the load and haul fleet at the mine. Productivity is the measure of the effectiveness of producing products from a given quantity of units, the ratio of output to inputs. Productivity can be improved by producing more outputs with the same or fewer units and/or introducing better working methods etc. Several key performance indicators (KPI) for the evaluation of productivity will be discussed in this study. These KPIs include but are not limited to hauling conditions, bucket fill factor, cycle time, and utilization. The research methodology of this study is a combination of on-site time studies and observations. Productivity can be optimized by managing the factors that affect the operational performance of the haulage fleet.Keywords: cycle time, fleet performance, load and haul, surface mining
Procedia PDF Downloads 1867029 Early Warning Signals: Role and Status of Risk Management in Small and Medium Enterprises
Authors: Alexander Kelíšek, Denisa Janasová, Veronika Mitašová
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Weak signals using is often associated with early warning. It is possible to find a link between early warning, respectively early problems detection and risk management. The idea of early warning is very important in the context of crisis management because of the risk prevention possibility. Weak signals are likened to risk symptoms. Nowadays, their usefulness as a tool of proactive problems solving is emphasized. Based on it, it is possible to use weak signals not only in strategic planning, project management, or early warning system, but also as a subsidiary element in risk management. The main question is how to effectively integrate weak signals into risk management. The main aim of the paper is to point out the possibilities of weak signals using in small and medium enterprises risk management.Keywords: early warning system, weak signals, risk management, small and medium enterprises (SMEs)
Procedia PDF Downloads 4197028 Evaluation of Disease Risk Variables in the Control of Bovine Tuberculosis
Authors: Berrin Şentürk
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In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.Keywords: bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 3947027 Analysis on Financial Status and Operational Performance of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University in 3 Fiscal Years (2011-2013)
Authors: Anocha Kimkong, Natnichar Kleebbuabarn
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This research work has the objective to analyze the financial status and operational performance of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University (SSRU) in 3 fiscal years (2011-2013). The tool used is a form to record financial statements and balances of the university. The analysis is based on the calculation that regards the figures in the fiscal year of 2011 as the 100% bases to be compared with the same figures in the fiscal years of 2012 and 2013, which are multiplied by 100 and divided by the base figures. The outcomes are the percentages of each year, which can reflect the rising, stable, and falling trends. The results from the analysis reveal that SSRU’s financial status is getting better because the gross assets, debts and accumulated cash are increasing in the fiscal years of 2012 and 2013. Concerning the operational performance, the university’s incomes and expenses are rising from the fiscal year of 2011. This makes the university’s incomes grow higher than expenses.Keywords: financial status, operational performance, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University, balances
Procedia PDF Downloads 3767026 Risk Management in Islamic Micro Finance Credit System for Poverty Alleviation from Qualitative Perspective
Authors: Liyu Adhi Kasari Sulung
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Poverty has been a major problem in Indonesia. Islamic micro finance (IMF) named Baitul Maal Wat Tamwil (Bmt) plays a prominent role to eradicate this. Indonesia as the biggest muslim country has many successful applied products such as worldwide adopt group-based lending approach, flexible financing for farmers, and gold pawning. The Problems related to these models are operation risk management and internal control system (ICS). A proper ICS will help an organization in preventing the occurrence of bad financing through detecting error and irregularities in its operation. This study aims to seek a proper risk management scheme of credit system in Bmt and internal control system’s rank for every stage. Risk management variables are obtained at the first In-Depth Interview (IDI) and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) with Shariah supervisory boards, boards of directors, and operational managers. Survey was conducted covering nationwide data; West Java, South Sulawesi, and West Nusa Tenggara. Moreover, Content analysis is employed to build the relationship among these variables. Research Findings shows that risk management Characteristics in Indonesia involves ex ante, credit process, and ex post strategies to deal with risk in credit system. Ex-ante control consists of Shariah compliance, survey, group leader reference, and islamic forming orientation. Then, credit process involves saving, collateral, joint liability, loan repayment, and credit installment controlling. Finally, ex-post control includes shariah evaluation, credit evaluation, grace period and low installment provisions. In addition, internal control order sort three stages by its priority; Credit process as first rank, then ex-post control as second, and ex ante control as the last rank.Keywords: internal control system, islamic micro finance, poverty, risk management
Procedia PDF Downloads 3997025 Numerical Solution for Integro-Differential Equations by Using Quartic B-Spline Wavelet and Operational Matrices
Authors: Khosrow Maleknejad, Yaser Rostami
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In this paper, semi-orthogonal B-spline scaling functions and wavelets and their dual functions are presented to approximate the solutions of integro-differential equations.The B-spline scaling functions and wavelets, their properties and the operational matrices of derivative for this function are presented to reduce the solution of integro-differential equations to the solution of algebraic equations. Here we compute B-spline scaling functions of degree 4 and their dual, then we will show that by using them we have better approximation results for the solution of integro-differential equations in comparison with less degrees of scaling functions.Keywords: ıntegro-differential equations, quartic B-spline wavelet, operational matrices, dual functions
Procedia PDF Downloads 4477024 Perceived Social Support, Resilience and Relapse Risk in Recovered Addicts
Authors: Islah Ud Din, Amna Bibi
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The current study was carried out to examine the perceived social support, resilience and relapse risk in recovered addicts. A purposive sampling technique was used to collect data from recovered addicts. A multidimensional scale of perceived social support by was used to measure the perceived social support. The brief Resilience Scale (BRS) was used to assess resilience. The Stimulant Relapse Risk Scale (SRRS) was used to examine the relapse risk. Resilience and Perceived social support have substantial positive correlations, whereas relapse risk and perceived social support have significant negative associations. Relapse risk and resilience have a strong inverse connection. Regression analysis was used to check the mediating effect of resilience between perceived social support and relapse risk. The findings revealed that perceived social support negatively predicted relapse risk. Results showed that Resilience plays a role as partial mediation between perceived social support and relapse risk. This Research will allow us to explore and understand the relapse risk factor and the role of perceived social support and resilience in recovered addicts. The study's findings have immediate consequences in the prevention of relapse. The study will play a significant part in drug rehabilitation centers, clinical settings and further research.Keywords: perceived social support, resilience, relapse risk, recovered addicts, drugs addiction
Procedia PDF Downloads 197023 From Intuitive to Constructive Audit Risk Assessment: A Complementary Approach to CAATTs Adoption
Authors: Alon Cohen, Jeffrey Kantor, Shalom Levy
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The use of the audit risk model in auditing has faced limitations and difficulties, leading auditors to rely on a conceptual level of its application. The qualitative approach to assessing risks has resulted in different risk assessments, affecting the quality of audits and decision-making on the adoption of CAATTs. This study aims to investigate risk factors impacting the implementation of the audit risk model and propose a complementary risk-based instrument (KRIs) to form substance risk judgments and mitigate against heightened risk of material misstatement (RMM). The study addresses the question of how risk factors impact the implementation of the audit risk model, improve risk judgments, and aid in the adoption of CAATTs. The study uses a three-stage scale development procedure involving a pretest and subsequent study with two independent samples. The pretest involves an exploratory factor analysis, while the subsequent study employs confirmatory factor analysis for construct validation. Additionally, the authors test the ability of the KRIs to predict audit efforts needed to mitigate against heightened RMM. Data was collected through two independent samples involving 767 participants. The collected data was analyzed using exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis to assess scale validity and construct validation. The suggested KRIs, comprising two risk components and seventeen risk items, are found to have high predictive power in determining audit efforts needed to reduce RMM. The study validates the suggested KRIs as an effective instrument for risk assessment and decision-making on the adoption of CAATTs. This study contributes to the existing literature by implementing a holistic approach to risk assessment and providing a quantitative expression of assessed risks. It bridges the gap between intuitive risk evaluation and the theoretical domain, clarifying the mechanism of risk assessments. It also helps improve the uniformity and quality of risk assessments, aiding audit standard-setters in issuing updated guidelines on CAATT adoption. A few limitations and recommendations for future research should be mentioned. First, the process of developing the scale was conducted in the Israeli auditing market, which follows the International Standards on Auditing (ISAs). Although ISAs are adopted in European countries, for greater generalization, future studies could focus on other countries that adopt additional or local auditing standards. Second, this study revealed risk factors that have a material impact on the assessed risk. However, there could be additional risk factors that influence the assessment of the RMM. Therefore, future research could investigate other risk segments, such as operational and financial risks, to bring a broader generalizability to our results. Third, although the sample size in this study fits acceptable scale development procedures and enables drawing conclusions from the body of research, future research may develop standardized measures based on larger samples to reduce the generation of equivocal results and suggest an extended risk model.Keywords: audit risk model, audit efforts, CAATTs adoption, key risk indicators, sustainability
Procedia PDF Downloads 687022 A Knowledge-Based Development of Risk Management Approaches for Construction Projects
Authors: Masoud Ghahvechi Pour
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Risk management is a systematic and regular process of identifying, analyzing and responding to risks throughout the project's life cycle in order to achieve the optimal level of elimination, reduction or control of risk. The purpose of project risk management is to increase the probability and effect of positive events and reduce the probability and effect of unpleasant events on the project. Risk management is one of the most fundamental parts of project management, so that unmanaged or untransmitted risks can be one of the primary factors of failure in a project. Effective risk management does not apply to risk regression, which is apparently the cheapest option of the activity. However, the main problem with this option is the economic sensitivity, because what is potentially profitable is by definition risky, and what does not pose a risk is economically interesting and does not bring tangible benefits. Therefore, in relation to the implemented project, effective risk management is finding a "middle ground" in its management, which includes, on the one hand, protection against risk from a negative direction by means of accurate identification and classification of risk, which leads to analysis And it becomes a comprehensive analysis. On the other hand, management using all mathematical and analytical tools should be based on checking the maximum benefits of these decisions. Detailed analysis, taking into account all aspects of the company, including stakeholder analysis, will allow us to add what will become tangible benefits for our project in the future to effective risk management. Identifying the risk of the project is based on the theory that which type of risk may affect the project, and also refers to specific parameters and estimating the probability of their occurrence in the project. These conditions can be divided into three groups: certainty, uncertainty, and risk, which in turn support three types of investment: risk preference, risk neutrality, specific risk deviation, and its measurement. The result of risk identification and project analysis is a list of events that indicate the cause and probability of an event, and a final assessment of its impact on the environment.Keywords: risk, management, knowledge, risk management
Procedia PDF Downloads 577021 An Assessment of the Risk and Protective Factors Impacting Criminal Gang Involvement among At-Risk Boys Resident at a Juvenile Home in Trinidad and Tobago: The Peer/Individual Domain of the Risk Factor Prevention ParadIGM
Authors: Dianne Williams
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This study examined the peer/individual domain of the Risk Factor Prevention Paradigm (RFPP) to assess the risk and protective factors that impact criminal gang involvement among at-risk males residing in a juvenile home in Trinidad and Tobago. The RFPP allows for the identification of both risk and protective factors in a single, holistic framework to identify the relationship between risk factors, protective factors, and criminal gang involvement among at-risk male adolescents. Findings showed that having anti-social peers was the most significant risk factor associated with criminal gang involvement, while the most significant protective factor was having a positive social attitude. Moreover, while 65% of the boys reported never having been in a gang, 70% reported having hit, struck or used a weapon against someone, while 52% reported being involved in other violent incidents on more than two occasions. This suggests that while involvement with criminal gangs may not be common among this population, predisposing behavioral patterns are present. Results are expected to assist in the development of targeted strategies to reduce the attractiveness of gang membership.Keywords: risk factor prevention paradigm, risk factors, protective factors, peer/individual domain, gang involvement, at-risk youth, trinidad and tobago, juvenile home
Procedia PDF Downloads 599