Search results for: forecast aggregation

Authors: Dmytro Zubov, Francesco Volponi

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In this paper, D-Wave quantum computing Ising model is used for the forecasting of positive extremes of daily mean air temperature. Forecast models are designed with two to five qubits, which represent 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-day historical data respectively. Ising model’s real-valued weights and dimensionless coefficients are calculated using daily mean air temperatures from 119 places around the world, as well as sea level (Aburatsu, Japan). In comparison with current methods, this approach is better suited to predict heat wave values because it does not require the estimation of a probability distribution from scarce observations. Proposed forecast quantum computing algorithm is simulated based on traditional computer architecture and combinatorial optimization of Ising model parameters for the Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport dataset with 1-day lead-time on learning sample (1975-2010 yr). Analysis of the forecast accuracy (ratio of successful predictions to total number of predictions) on the validation sample (2011-2014 yr) shows that Ising model with three qubits has 100 % accuracy, which is quite significant as compared to other methods. However, number of identified heat waves is small (only one out of nineteen in this case). Other models with 2, 4, and 5 qubits have 20 %, 3.8 %, and 3.8 % accuracy respectively. Presented three-qubit forecast model is applied for prediction of heat waves at other five locations: Aurel Vlaicu, Romania – accuracy is 28.6 %; Bratislava, Slovakia – accuracy is 21.7 %; Brussels, Belgium – accuracy is 33.3 %; Sofia, Bulgaria – accuracy is 50 %; Akhisar, Turkey – accuracy is 21.4 %. These predictions are not ideal, but not zeros. They can be used independently or together with other predictions generated by different method(s). The loss of human life, as well as environmental, economic, and material damage, from extreme air temperatures could be reduced if some of heat waves are predicted. Even a small success rate implies a large socio-economic benefit.

Keywords: heat wave, D-wave, forecast, Ising model, quantum computing

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Authors: Ubaidillah Zuhdi, Shunsuke Mori, Kazuhisa Kamegai

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The purpose of this study is to forecast the influences of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on the structural changes of Japanese economies based on Leontief Input-Output (IO) coefficients. This study establishes a statistical analysis to predict the future interrelationships among industries. We employ the Constrained Multivariate Regression (CMR) model to analyze the historical changes of input-output coefficients. Statistical significance of the model is then tested by Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT). In our model, ICT is represented by two explanatory variables, i.e. computers (including main parts and accessories) and telecommunications equipment. A previous study, which analyzed the influences of these variables on the structural changes of Japanese industrial sectors from 1985-2005, concluded that these variables had significant influences on the changes in the business circumstances of Japanese commerce, business services and office supplies, and personal services sectors. The projected future Japanese economic structure based on the above forecast generates the differentiated direct and indirect outcomes of ICT penetration.

Keywords: forecast, ICT, industrial structural changes, statistical analysis

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Authors: Gerges Samaan Henin Abdalla

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Ultra-secured methods of banking services have been introduced to the customer, such as online banking. Banks have begun to consider electronic banking (e-banking) as a way to replace some traditional branch functions by using the Internet as a distribution channel. Some consumers have at least one account at multiple banks and access these accounts through online banking. To check their current net worth, clients need to log into each of their accounts, get detailed information, and work toward consolidation. Not only is it time consuming, but it is also a repeatable activity with a certain frequency. To solve this problem, the concept of account aggregation was added as a solution. Account consolidation in e-banking as a form of electronic banking appears to build a stronger relationship with customers. An account linking service is generally referred to as a service that allows customers to manage their bank accounts held at different institutions via a common online banking platform that places a high priority on security and data protection. Consumers have at least one account at multiple banks and access these accounts through online banking. To check their current net worth, clients need to log into each of their accounts, get detailed information, and work toward consolidation. The article provides an overview of the account aggregation approach in e-banking as a new service in the area of e-banking.

Keywords: compatibility, complexity, mobile banking, observation, risk banking technology, Internet banks, modernization of banks, banks, account aggregation, security, enterprise development

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Authors: Hacene Benkhoula, Mohamed Badreddine Benabdella, Hamid Bouzeboudja, Abderrahmane Asraoui

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The wind is a random variable difficult to master, for this, we developed a mathematical and statistical methods enable to modeling and forecast wind power. Gaussian Processes (GP) is one of the most widely used families of stochastic processes for modeling dependent data observed over time, or space or time and space. GP is an underlying process formed by unrecognized operator’s uses to solve a problem. The purpose of this paper is to present how to forecast wind power by using the GP. The Gaussian process method for forecasting are presented. To validate the presented approach, a simulation under the MATLAB environment has been given.

Keywords: wind power, Gaussien process, modelling, forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 417

Authors: O. Poleshchuk, E. Komarov

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This paper presents a regression model for interval type-2 fuzzy sets based on the least squares estimation technique. Unknown coefficients are assumed to be triangular fuzzy numbers. The basic idea is to determine aggregation intervals for type-1 fuzzy sets, membership functions of whose are low membership function and upper membership function of interval type-2 fuzzy set. These aggregation intervals were called weighted intervals. Low and upper membership functions of input and output interval type-2 fuzzy sets for developed regression models are considered as piecewise linear functions.

Keywords: interval type-2 fuzzy sets, fuzzy regression, weighted interval

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Authors: Qamar Iqbal

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Companies strive to improve their forecasting methods to predict the fluctuations in customer demand. These fluctuation and variation in demand affect the manufacturing operations and can limit a company’s ability to fulfill customer demand on time. Companies keep the inventory buffer and maintain the stocking levels to reduce the impact of demand variation. A mid-size company deals with thousands of stock keeping units (skus). It is neither easy and nor efficient to control and manage each sku. Inventory classification provides a tool to the management to increase their ability to support customer demand. The paper presents a framework that shows how inventory classification can play a role to increase supply chain responsiveness. A case study will be presented to further elaborate the method both for build-to-order and build-to-forecast manufacturing environments. Results will be compared that will show which manufacturing setting has advantage over another under different circumstances. The outcome of this study is very useful to the management because this will give them an insight on how inventory classification can be used to increase their ability to respond to changing customer needs.

Keywords: inventory classification, supply chain responsiveness, forecast, manufacturing environment

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Authors: Denis Constantin Topa, Irina Gabriela Cara, Gerard Jitareanu

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Tillage is a fundamental soil practice with different soil disturbance intensities and unique implications in soil organic carbon, soil structure, and nutrient dynamics. However, the implication of tillage practice on soil organic carbon and soil health is complex and specific to the context. it study evaluated soil health status based on soil carbon sequestration and pools, soil aggregation, and nutrient use under two different tillage practices: conventional and minimum tillage. The results of our study are consistent with the hypothesis that, over time, minimum tillage typically boosts soil health in the 0-10 cm soil layer. Compared to the conventional practice (19.36 t C ha-1) there was a significant accumulation of soil organic carbon (0-30 cm) in the minimum-tillage practice (23.21 t C ha-1). Below 10 cm depth, the soil organic carbon stocks are close to that of the conventional layer (0-30 cm). Soil aggregate stability was improved under conservative tillage, due to soil carbon improvement which facilitated a greater volume of mesopores and micropores. Total nitrogen (TN), available potassium (AK) and phosphorus (AP) content in 0-10 cm depth under minimum-tillage practice were 26%, 6% and 32%, greater respectively, compared to the conventional treatment. Overall, the TN, AP and AK values decreased with depth within the soil profiles as a consequence of soil practice and minimum disturbance. The data show that minimum tillage is a sustainable and effective management practice that maintain soil health with soil carbon increase and efficient nutrient use.

Keywords: minimum tillage, conventional tillage, soil organic carbon, nutrients, soil aggregation, soil health

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Authors: Md. Abud Darda

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Different options for natural gas production in wide geographic areas may be described through diffusion of innovation models. This type of modeling approach provides an indirect estimate of an ultimately recoverable resource, URR, capture the quantitative effects of observed strategic interventions, and allow ex-ante assessments of future scenarios over time. In order to ensure a sustainable energy policy, it is important to forecast the availability of this natural resource. Considering a finite life cycle, in this paper we try to investigate the natural gas production of Myanmar and Algeria, two important natural gas provider in the world energy market. A number of homogeneous and heterogeneous diffusion models, with convenient extensions, have been used. Models validation has also been performed in terms of prediction capability.

Keywords: diffusion models, energy forecast, natural gas, nonlinear production

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Authors: Zakiya Shireen, Sujin B. Babu

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Irreversible diffusion-limited cluster aggregation (DLCA) of binary sticky spheres was simulated by modifying the Brownian Cluster Dynamics (BCD). We randomly distribute N spheres in a 3D box of size L, the volume fraction is given by Φtot = (π/6)N/L³. We identify NA and NB number of spheres as species A and B in our system both having identical size. In these systems, both A and B particles undergo Brownian motion. Irreversible bond formation happens only between intra-species particles and inter-species interact only through hard-core repulsions. As we perform simulation using BCD we start to observe binary gels. In our study, we have observed that species B always percolate (cluster size equal to L) as expected for the monomeric case and species A does not percolate below a critical ratio which is different for different volume fractions. We will also show that the accessible volume of the system increases when compared to the monomeric case, which means that species A is aggregating inside the cage created by B. We have also observed that for moderate Φtot the system undergoes a transition from flocculation region to percolation region indicated by the change in fractal dimension from 1.8 to 2.5. For smaller ratio of A, it stays in the flocculation regime even though B have already crossed over to the percolation regime. Thus, we observe two fractal dimension in the same system.

Keywords: BCD, fractals, percolation, sticky spheres

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Authors: Mariyam Arif, Ye Liu, Israr Ul Haq, Ahsan Ashfaq

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High cost of fossil fuels and intensifying installations of alternate energy generation sources are intimidating main challenges in power systems. Making accurate load forecasting an important and challenging task for optimal energy planning and management at both distribution and generation side. There are many techniques to forecast load but each technique comes with its own limitation and requires data to accurately predict the forecast load. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one such technique to efficiently forecast the load. Comparison between two different ranges of input datasets has been applied to dynamic ANN technique using MATLAB Neural Network Toolbox. It has been observed that selection of input data on training of a network has significant effects on forecasted results. Day-wise input data forecasted the load accurately as compared to year-wise input data. The forecasted load is then distributed among the six generators by using the linear programming to get the optimal point of generation. The algorithm is then verified by comparing the results of each generator with their respective generation limits.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, demand-side management, economic dispatch, linear programming, power generation dispatch

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Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

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In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

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Authors: Nop Sopipan

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In this paper, we forecast the volatility of Baht/USDs using Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) models. These models allow volatility to have different dynamics according to unobserved regime variables. The main purpose of this paper is to find out whether MRS-GARCH models are an improvement on the GARCH type models in terms of modeling and forecasting Baht/USD volatility. The MRS-GARCH is the best performance model for Baht/USD volatility in short term but the GARCH model is best perform for long term.

Keywords: volatility, Markov Regime Switching, forecasting, Baht/USD

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Authors: Chuan-Wen Liu, Min-Hsien Liu, Chung-Chieh Tai, Bing-Cheng Kuo, Cheng-Lung Chen, Huazhen Shen

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A recent surge in research on magnetic radar absorbing materials (RAMs) has presented researchers with new opportunities and challenges. This study was performed to gain a better understanding of the wave-absorbing phenomenon of magnetic RAMs. First, we hypothesized that the absorbing phenomenon is dependent on the particle shape. Using the Material Studio program and the micro-dot magnetic dipoles (MDMD) method, we obtained results from magnetic RAMs to support this hypothesis. The total MDMD energy of disk-like iron particles was greater than that of spherical iron particles. In addition, the particulate aggregation phenomenon decreases the wave-absorbance, according to both experiments and computational data. To conclude, this study may be of importance in terms of explaining the wave- absorbing characteristic of magnetic RAMs. Combining molecular dynamics simulation results and the theory of magnetization of magnetic dots, we investigated the magnetic properties of iron materials with different particle shapes and degrees of aggregation under external magnetic fields. The MDMD of the materials under magnetic fields of various strengths were simulated. Our results suggested that disk-like iron particles had a better magnetization than spherical iron particles. This result could be correlated with the magnetic wave- absorbing property of iron material.

Keywords: wave-absorbing property, magnetic material, micro-dot magnetic dipole, particulate aggregation

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Authors: Babak Azari, Afshin Pourahmad, Babak Sadeghi, Masuod Mokhtari

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In this work, Equisetnm arvense plant extract was used for preparing amorphous SiO₂. For preparing of SiO₂/zeolitic imidazolate framework-8 (ZIF-8) nanocomposite by solvothermal method, the synthesized SiO₂ was added to the synthesis mixture ZIF-8. The nanocomposite was characterized using a range of techniques. The photocatalytic activity of SiO₂/ZIF-8 was investigated systematically by degrading crystal violet as a cationic dye under Ultraviolet light irradiation. Among synthesized samples (SiO₂, ZIF-8 and SiO₂/ZIF-8), the SiO₂/ZIF-8 exhibited the highest photocatalytic activity and improved stability compared to pure SiO₂ and ZIF-8. As evidenced by Scanning Electron Microscopy and Transmission electron microscopy images, ZIF-8 particles without aggregation are located over SiO₂. The SiO₂ not only provides structured support for ZIF-8 but also prevents the aggregation of ZIF-8 Metal-organic framework in comparison to the isolated ZIF-8. The superior activity of this photocatalyst was attributed to the synergistic effects from SiO₂ owing to (I) an electron acceptor (from ZIF-8) and an electron donor (to O₂ molecules), (II) preventing recombination of electron-hole in ZIF-8, and (III) maximum interfacial contact ZIF-8 with the SiO₂ surface without aggregation or prevent the accumulation of ZIF-8. The results demonstrate that holes (h+) and •O₂- are primary reactive species involved in the photocatalytic oxidation process. Moreover, the SiO₂/ZIF-8 photocatalyst did not show any obvious loss of photocatalytic activity during five-cycle tests, which indicates that the heterostructured photocatalyst was highly stable and could be used repeatedly.

Keywords: nano, zeolit, potocatalist, nanocomposite

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Authors: M. Mulumpwa, W. W. L. Jere, M. Lazaro, A. H. N. Mtethiwa

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The study considered Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) processes to select an appropriate stochastic model to forecast the monthly data from the Lake Malawi water levels for the period 1986 through 2015. The appropriate model was chosen based on SARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)S. The Autocorrelation function (ACF), Partial autocorrelation (PACF), Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Box–Ljung statistics, correlogram and distribution of residual errors were estimated. The SARIMA (1, 1, 0) (1, 1, 1)12 was selected to forecast the monthly data of the Lake Malawi water levels from August, 2015 to December, 2021. The plotted time series showed that the Lake Malawi water levels are decreasing since 2010 to date but not as much as was the case in 1995 through 1997. The future forecast of the Lake Malawi water levels until 2021 showed a mean of 474.47 m ranging from 473.93 to 475.02 meters with a confidence interval of 80% and 90% against registered mean of 473.398 m in 1997 and 475.475 m in 1989 which was the lowest and highest water levels in the lake respectively since 1986. The forecast also showed that the water levels of Lake Malawi will drop by 0.57 meters as compared to the mean water levels recorded in the previous years. These results suggest that the Lake Malawi water level may not likely go lower than that recorded in 1997. Therefore, utilisation and management of water-related activities and programs among others on the lake should provide room for such scenarios. The findings suggest a need to manage the Lake Malawi jointly and prudently with other stakeholders starting from the catchment area. This will reduce impacts of anthropogenic activities on the lake’s water quality, water level, aquatic and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems thereby ensuring its resilience to climate change impacts.

Keywords: forecasting, Lake Malawi, water levels, water level fluctuation, climate change, anthropogenic activities

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Authors: Korpapa Srisamai, Pawee Siriruk

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The purpose of this study is to forecast product demands and develop appropriate and adequate procurement plans to meet customer needs and reduce costs. When the product exceeds customer demands or does not move, it requires the company to support insufficient storage spaces. Moreover, some items, when stored for a long period of time, cause deterioration to dead stock. A case study of the wholesale company of electronic equipment and components, which has uncertain customer demands, is considered. The actual purchasing orders of customers are not equal to the forecast provided by the customers. In some cases, customers have higher product demands, resulting in the product being insufficient to meet the customer's needs. However, some customers have lower demands for products than estimates, causing insufficient storage spaces and dead stock. This study aims to reduce the loss of sales opportunities and the number of remaining goods in the warehouse, citing 30 product samples of the company's most popular products. The data were collected during the duration of the study from January to October 2022. The methods used to forecast are simple moving averages, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing methods. The economic ordering quantity and reorder point are used to calculate to meet customer needs and track results. The research results are very beneficial to the company. The company can reduce the loss of sales opportunities by 20% so that the company has enough products to meet customer needs and can reduce unused products by up to 10% dead stock. This enables the company to order products more accurately, increasing profits and storage space.

Keywords: demand forecast, reorder point, lost sale, dead stock

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Authors: Viktor R. Stoynov, Zlatka V. Valkova-Jarvis

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The intelligent management and optimisation of radio resource technologies will lead to a considerable improvement in the overall performance in Next Generation Networks (NGNs). Carrier Aggregation (CA) technology, also known as Spectrum Aggregation, enables more efficient use of the available spectrum by combining multiple Component Carriers (CCs) in a virtual wideband channel. LTE-A (Long Term Evolution–Advanced) CA technology can combine multiple adjacent or separate CCs in the same band or in different bands. In this way, increased data rates and dynamic load balancing can be achieved, resulting in a more reliable and efficient operation of mobile networks and the enabling of high bandwidth mobile services. In this paper, several distinct CA deployment strategies for the utilisation of spectrum bands are compared in indoor-outdoor scenarios, simulated via the recently-developed Realistic Indoor Environment Generator (RIEG). We analyse the performance of the User Equipment (UE) by integrating the average throughput, the level of fairness of radio resource allocation, and other parameters, into one summative assessment termed a Comparative Factor (CF). In addition, comparison of non-CA and CA indoor mobile networks is carried out under different load conditions: varying numbers and positions of UEs. The experimental results demonstrate that the CA technology can improve network performance, especially in the case of indoor scenarios. Additionally, we show that an increase of carrier frequency does not necessarily lead to improved CF values, due to high wall-penetration losses. The performance of users under bad-channel conditions, often located in the periphery of the cells, can be improved by intelligent CA location. Furthermore, a combination of such a deployment and effective radio resource allocation management with respect to user-fairness plays a crucial role in improving the performance of LTE-A networks.

Keywords: comparative factor, carrier aggregation, indoor mobile network, resource allocation

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Authors: Shahnaz Mansouri, Xiao Dong Chen, Meng Wai Woo

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A new antisolvent vapour precipitation approach was used to make ultrafine submicron probiotic encapsulates. The approach uses ethanol vapour to precipitate submicron encapsulates within relatively large droplets. Surprisingly, the probiotics (Lactobacillus delbrueckii ssp. bulgaricus, Streptococcus thermophilus) showed relatively high survival even under destructive ethanolic conditions within the droplet. This unusual behaviour was deduced to be caused by the denaturation and aggregation of the milk protein forming an ethanolic protective matrix for the probiotics. Skim milk droplets which is rich in casein and contains naturally occurring minerals provided higher ethanolic protection when compared whey protein isolate and lactose droplets.

Keywords: whey, skim milk, probiotic, antisolvent, precipitation, encapsulation, denaturation, aggregation

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Authors: Asma Ben Hmidene, Mizuho Hanaki, Kazuma Murakami, Kazuhiro Irie, Hiroko Isoda, Hideyuki Shigemori

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Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) are characterized as a peripheral metabolic disorder and a degenerative disease of the central nervous system, respectively. It is now widely recognized that T2DM and AD share many pathophysiological features including glucose metabolism, increased oxidative stress and amyloid aggregation. Amyloid beta (Aβ) is the components of the amyloid deposits in the AD brain and while the component of the amyloidogenic peptide deposit in the pancreatic islets of Langerhans is identified as human islet amyloid polypeptide (hIAPP). These two proteins are originated from the amyloid precursor protein and have a high sequence similarity. Although the amino acid sequences of amyloidogenic proteins are diverse, they all adopt a similar structure in aggregates called cross-beta-spine. Add at that, extensive studies in the past years have found that like Aβ1-42, IAPP forms early intermediate assemblies as spherical oligomers, implicating that these oligomers possess a common folding pattern or conformation. These similarities can be used in the search for effective pharmacotherapy for DM, since potent therapeutic agents such as antioxidants with a catechol moiety, proved to inhibit Aβ aggregation, may play a key role in the inhibit the aggregation of hIAPP treatment of patients with DM. Tamarix gallica is one of the halophyte species having a powerful antioxidant system. Although it was traditionally used for the treatment of various liver metabolic disorders, there is no report about the use of this plant for the treatment or prevention of T2DM and AD. Therefore, the aim of this work is to investigate their protective effect towards T2DM and AD by isolation and identification of α-glucosidase inhibitors, with antioxidant potential, that play an important role in the glucose metabolism in diabetic patient, as well as, the polymerization of hIAPP and Aβ aggregation inhibitors. Structure-activity relationship study was conducted for both assays. And as for α-glucosidase inhibitors, their mechanism of action and their synergistic potential when applied with a very low concentration of acarbose were also suggesting that they can be used not only as α-glucosidase inhibitors but also be combined with established α-glucosidase inhibitors to reduce their adverse effect. The antioxidant potential of the purified substances was evaluated by DPPH and SOD assays. Th-T assay using 42-mer amyloid β-protein (Aβ42) for AD and hIAPP which is a 37-residue peptide secreted by the pancreatic β –cells for T2DM and Transmission electronic microscopy (TEM) were conducted to evaluate the amyloid aggragation of the actives substances. For α-glucosidase, p-NPG and glucose oxidase assays were performed for determining the inhibition potential and structure-activity relationship study. The Enzyme kinetic protocol was used to study the mechanism of action. From this research, it was concluded that polyphenols playing a role in the glucose metabolism and oxidative stress can also inhibit the amyloid aggregation, and that substances with a catechol and glucuronide moieties inhibiting amyloid-β aggregation, might be used to inhibit the aggregation of hIAPP.

Keywords: α-glucosidase inhibitors, amyloid aggregation inhibition, mechanism of action, polyphenols, structure activity relationship, synergistic potential, tamarix gallica

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Authors: Martins Y. Otache, John J. Musa, Abayomi I. Kuti, Mustapha Mohammed

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The performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) is contingent on a host of factors, for instance, the network optimisation scheme. In view of this, the study examined the general implications of the ANN training optimisation algorithm on its forecast performance. To this end, the Bayesian regularisation (Br), Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), and the adaptive learning gradient descent: GDM (with momentum) algorithms were employed under different ANN structural configurations: (1) single-hidden layer, and (2) double-hidden layer feedforward back propagation network. Results obtained revealed generally that the gradient descent with momentum (GDM) optimisation algorithm, with its adaptive learning capability, used a relatively shorter time in both training and validation phases as compared to the Levenberg- Marquardt (LM) and Bayesian Regularisation (Br) algorithms though learning may not be consummated; i.e., in all instances considering also the prediction of extreme flow conditions for 1-day and 5-day ahead, respectively especially using the ANN model. In specific statistical terms on the average, model performance efficiency using the coefficient of efficiency (CE) statistic were Br: 98%, 94%; LM: 98 %, 95 %, and GDM: 96 %, 96% respectively for training and validation phases. However, on the basis of relative error distribution statistics (MAE, MAPE, and MSRE), GDM performed better than the others overall. Based on the findings, it is imperative to state that the adoption of ANN for real-time forecasting should employ training algorithms that do not have computational overhead like the case of LM that requires the computation of the Hessian matrix, protracted time, and sensitivity to initial conditions; to this end, Br and other forms of the gradient descent with momentum should be adopted considering overall time expenditure and quality of the forecast as well as mitigation of network overfitting. On the whole, it is recommended that evaluation should consider implications of (i) data quality and quantity and (ii) transfer functions on the overall network forecast performance.

Keywords: streamflow, neural network, optimisation, algorithm

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Authors: Serkan Aras, Emrah Gulay

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Combining various forecasting models is an important tool for researchers to attain more accurate forecasts. A great number of papers have shown that selecting single models as dissimilar models, or methods based on different information as possible leads to better forecasting performances. However, there is not a certain rule regarding the number of single models to be used in any combining methods. This study focuses on determining the optimal or near optimal number for single models with the help of statistical tests. An extensive experiment is carried out by utilizing some well-known time series data sets from diverse fields. Furthermore, many rival forecasting methods and some of the commonly used combining methods are employed. The obtained results indicate that some statistically significant performance differences can be found regarding the number of the single models in the combining methods under investigation.

Keywords: combined forecast, forecasting, M-competition, time series

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Authors: Etienne Alain Feukeu, L. W. Snyman

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Water scarcity is becoming a real issue nowadays. Most countries in the world are facing it in their own way based on their own geographical coordinate and condition. Many countries are facing a challenge of a growing water demand as a result of not only an increased population, economic growth, but also as a pressure of the population dynamic and urbanization. In view to mitigate some of this related problem, an accurate method of water estimation and future prediction, forecast is essential to guarantee not only the sufficient quantity, but also a good water distribution and management system. Beside the fact that several works have been undertaken to address this concern, there is still a considerable disparity between different methods and standard used for water prediction and estimation. Hence this work contrast and compare two well-defined and established methods from two countries (USA and South Africa) to demonstrate the inconsistency when different method and standards are used interchangeably.

Keywords: water scarcity, water estimation, water prediction, water forecast.

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Authors: Wali Ullah, Muhammad Nishat

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The study investigates the extent to which the so called Nelson-Siegel model (DNS) and its extended version that accounts for time varying volatility (DNS-EGARCH) can optimally fit the yield curve and predict its future path in the context of an emerging economy. For the in-sample fit, both models fit the curve remarkably well even in the emerging markets. However, the DNS-EGARCH model fits the curve slightly better than the DNS. Moreover, both specifications of yield curve that are based on the Nelson-Siegel functional form outperform the benchmark VAR forecasts at all forecast horizons. The DNS-EGARCH comes with more precise forecasts than the DNS for the 6- and 12-month ahead forecasts, while the two have almost similar performance in terms of RMSE for the very short forecast horizons.

Keywords: yield curve, forecasting, emerging markets, Kalman filter, EGARCH

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Authors: Mohammed Alasel, Michael Keusgen

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Gold is a noble metal; in its nano-scale level (e.g. spherical nanoparticles), the conduction electrons are triggered to collectively oscillate with a resonant frequency when certain wavelengths of electromagnetic radiation interact with its surface; this phenomenon is known as surface plasmon resonance (SPR). SPR is responsible for giving the gold nanoparticles its intense red color depending mainly on its size, shape and distance between nanoparticles. A decreased distance between gold nanoparticles results in aggregation of them causing a change in color from red to blue. This aggregation enables gold nanoparticles to serve as a sensitive biosensoric indicator. In the proposed work, gold nanoparticles were modified with two proteins: i) Borrelia antigen, variable lipoprotein surface-exposed protein (VlsE), and ii) protein A. VlsE antigen induces a strong antibody response against Lyme disease and can be detected from early to late phase during the disease in humans infected with Borrelia. In addition, it shows low cross-reaction with the other non-pathogenic Borrelia strains. The high specificity of VlsE antigen to anti-Borrelia antibodies, combined simultaneously with the high specificity of protein A to the Fc region of all IgG human antibodies, was utilized to develop a rapid test for serological point of care diagnosis of borreliosis in human serum. Only in the presence of anti-Borrelia antibodies in the serum probe, an aggregation of gold nanoparticles can be observed, which is visible by a concentration-dependent colour shift from red (low IgG) to blue (high IgG). Experiments showed it is clearly possible to distinguish between positive and negative sera samples using a simple suspension of the two-protein modified gold nanoparticles in a very short time (30 minutes). The proposed work showed the potential of using such modified gold nanoparticles generally for serological diagnosis. Improved specificity and reduced assay time can be archived in applying increased salt concentrations combined with decreased pH values (pH 5).

Keywords: gold nanoparticles, gold aggregation, serological diagnosis, protein A, lyme borreliosis

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Authors: Rutuja Desai

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Search engine is fundamentally a framework used to search the data which is pertinent to the client via WWW. Looking close-by spot identified with the keywords is an imperative concept in developing web advances. For such kind of searching, extent pursuit or closest neighbor is utilized. In range search the forecast is made whether the objects meet to query object. Nearest neighbor is the forecast of the focuses close to the query set by the client. Here, the nearest neighbor methodology is utilized where Data recovery R+ tree is utilized rather than IR2 tree. The disadvantages of IR2 tree is: The false hit number can surpass the limit and the mark in Information Retrieval R-tree must have Voice over IP bit for each one of a kind word in W set is recouped by Data recovery R+ tree. The inquiry is fundamentally subordinate upon the key words and the geometric directions.

Keywords: information retrieval, nearest neighbor search, keyword search, R+ tree

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Authors: Hans Schumann, Colin Domnauer, Louis Rosenberg

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In this study, machine learning techniques were deployed on real-time human swarm data to forecast the likelihood of outcomes for English Premier League matches in the 2020/21 season. These techniques included ensemble models in combination with neural networks and were tested against an industry standard of Vegas Oddsmakers. Predictions made from the collective intelligence of human swarm participants managed to achieve a positive return on investment over a full season on matches, empirically proving the usefulness of a new artificial intelligence valuing human instinct and intelligence.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, data science, English Premier League, human swarming, machine learning, sports betting, swarm intelligence

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Authors: Ulrike Dowie, Ralph Grothmann

Abstract:

Rational planning decisions are based upon forecasts. Precise forecasting has, therefore, a central role in business. The prediction of customer demand is a prime example. This paper introduces recurrent neural networks to model customer demand and combines the forecast with uncertainty measures to derive decision support of the demand planning department. It identifies and describes the keys to the successful implementation of an AI-based solution: bringing together data with business knowledge, AI methods, and user experience, and applying agile software development practices.

Keywords: agile software development, AI project success factors, deep learning, demand forecasting, forecast uncertainty, neural networks, supply chain management

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Authors: D. Prangchumpol

Abstract:

This research presents a forecasting method of requisition document demands for Military units by using Exponential Smoothing methods to analyze data. The data used in the forecast is an actual data requisition document of The Adjutant General Department. The results of the forecasting model to forecast the requisition of the document found that Holt–Winters’ trend and seasonality method of α=0.1, β=0, γ=0 is appropriate and matches for requisition of documents. In addition, the researcher has developed a requisition online system to improve the performance of requisition documents of The Adjutant General Department, and also ensuring that the operation can be checked.

Keywords: requisition, holt–winters, time series, royal thai army

Procedia PDF Downloads 308

Authors: Zaid Jamal Saeed Almahmoud

Abstract:

Smart Grid is the vision of the future power system that combines advanced monitoring and communication technologies to provide energy in a smart, efficient, and user-friendly manner. This proposal considers a demand response model in the Smart Grid based on utility maximization. Given a set of consumers with conflicting preferences in terms of consumption and a utility company that aims to minimize the peak demand and match demand to supply, we study the problem of aggregating these preferences while modelling the problem as a game. We also investigate whether an equilibrium can be reached to maximize the social benefit. Based on such equilibrium, we propose a dynamic pricing heuristic that computes the equilibrium and sets the prices accordingly. The developed approach was analysed theoretically and evaluated experimentally using real appliances data. The results show that our proposed approach achieves a substantial reduction in the overall energy consumption.

Keywords: heuristics, smart grid, aggregation, mechanism design, equilibrium

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Luminita Marin, Dalila Belei, Carmen Dumea

Abstract:

Aggregation induced emission (AIE) is an intriguing optical phenomenon recently evidenced by Tang and his co-workers, for which aggregation works constructively in the improving of light emission. The AIE challenging phenomenon is quite opposite to the notorious aggregation caused quenching (ACQ) of light emission in the condensed phase, and comes in line with requirements of photonic and optoelectronic devices which need solid state emissive substrates. This paper reports a series of ten new aggregation induced emission (AIE) low molecular weight compounds based on triazole and pyridine-N-oxide heterocyclic units bonded by short flexible chains, obtained by a „click” chemistry reaction. The compounds present extremely weak luminescence in solution but strong light emission in solid state. To distinguish the influence of the crystallinity degree on the emission efficiency, the photophysical properties were explored by UV-vis and photoluminescence spectroscopy in solution, water suspension, amorphous and crystalline films. On the other hand, the compound morphology of the up mentioned states was monitored by dynamic light scattering, scanning electron microscopy, atomic force microscopy and polarized light microscopy methods. To further understand the structural design – photophysical properties relationship, single crystal X-ray diffraction on some understudy compounds was performed too. The UV-vis absorption spectra of the triazole water suspensions indicated a typical behaviour for nanoparticle formation, while the photoluminescence spectra revealed an emission intensity enhancement up to 921-fold higher of the crystalline films compared to solutions, clearly indicating an AIE behaviour. The compounds have the tendency to aggregate forming nano- and micro- crystals in shape of rose-like and fibres. The crystals integrity is kept due to the strong lateral intermolecular forces, while the absence of face-to-face forces explains the enhanced luminescence in crystalline state, in which the intramolecular rotations are restricted. The studied flexible triazoles draw attention to a new structural design in which small biologically friendly luminophore units are linked together by small flexible chains. This design enlarges the variety of the AIE luminogens to the flexible molecules, guiding further efforts in development of new AIE structures for appropriate applications, the biological ones being especially envisaged.

Keywords: aggregation induced emission, pyridine-N-oxide, triazole

Procedia PDF Downloads 467