Search results for: random coefficients model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 18853

Search results for: random coefficients model

10063 Estimation of Noise Barriers for Arterial Roads of Delhi

Authors: Sourabh Jain, Parul Madan

Abstract:

Traffic noise pollution has become a challenging problem for all metro cities of India due to rapid urbanization, growing population and rising number of vehicles and transport development. In Delhi the prime source of noise pollution is vehicular traffic. In Delhi it is found that the ambient noise level (Leq) is exceeding the standard permissible value at all the locations. Noise barriers or enclosures are definitely useful in obtaining effective deduction of traffic noise disturbances in urbanized areas. US’s Federal Highway Administration Model (FHWA) and Calculation of Road Traffic Noise (CORTN) of UK are used to develop spread sheets for noise prediction. Spread sheets are also developed for evaluating effectiveness of existing boundary walls abutting houses in mitigating noise, redesigning them as noise barriers. Study was also carried out to examine the changes in noise level due to designed noise barrier by using both models FHWA and CORTN respectively. During the collection of various data it is found that receivers are located far away from road at Rithala and Moolchand sites and hence extra barrier height needed to meet prescribed limits was less as seen from calculations and most of the noise diminishes by propagation effect.On the basis of overall study and data analysis, it is concluded that FHWA and CORTN models under estimate noise levels. FHWA model predicted noise levels with an average percentage error of -7.33 and CORTN predicted with an average percentage error of -8.5. It was observed that at all sites noise levels at receivers were exceeding the standard limit of 55 dB. It was seen from calculations that existing walls are reducing noise levels. Average noise reduction due to walls at Rithala was 7.41 dB and at Panchsheel was 7.20 dB and lower amount of noise reduction was observed at Friend colony which was only 5.88. It was observed from analysis that Friends colony sites need much greater height of barrier. This was because of residential buildings abutting the road. At friends colony great amount of traffic was observed since it is national highway. At this site diminishing of noise due to propagation effect was very less.As FHWA and CORTN models were developed in excel programme, it eliminates laborious calculations of noise. There was no reflection correction in FHWA models as like in CORTN model.

Keywords: IFHWA, CORTN, Noise Sources, Noise Barriers

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10062 Local Remedies to Hangover in Iligan City, Philippines: An Alcohol Consumer Welfare-Concerned Study

Authors: Lindsay Crystabelle A. Gillamac, Lemuel Roy Amarillo, Al Leonard Joseph B. Aca-Ac, Felipe V. Lula Jr.

Abstract:

Hangover is the unpleasant psychological and physiologic effects after heavy consumption of alcoholic beverages. In awareness of the need to have a remedy for hangover occurrence in Iligan City, the authors aimed to determine the most preferred and effective local remedy to the hangover and inform people, bars and food establishments that there are available remedies to the hangover in the locality. The study utilizes qualitative data gathered through an interview on four different age groups with 50 random individuals each group as to what symptom determines they are experiencing the hangover. Then, quantitative data gathered through an online and written survey was done as to what local hangover remedy do they intake after drinking to ameliorate the most experienced symptom provided from the first assessment. After data tabulation of hangover symptoms on different age groups, we have found out that the most common determinant that you have a hangover has a headache. Thus, we queried the respondents again to what was effective the most in relieving them of a headache and their other felt symptoms depending on their varying age groups. The results of the evaluations showed that most respondents from different age groups preferred Halang-halang Soup, a spicy beef soup in the locality. As part of the hospitality industry concerned with welfare of customers, Bars in Iligan City should include on their menu these hang-over remedies in anticipation of guest needs given the fact that there are no more stores open at late hours in Iligan City. Placards should also be posted within the bar area to orient the guests about hang-over cures available inside the bar. Bartenders and other staff being directly in-contact with guests should take part in orienting guests about these aforementioned remedies. Added to that, we would like to promote Halang-halang Soup as a Health beneficial cuisine in the Philippines and help in the growth of the Tourism Industry of Iligan City by making the Halang-halang place a tourist destination.

Keywords: alcohol, alcohol consumption, alcohol hangover, anticipation of needs, bar, cure, hangover, headache, hospitality industry, local remedy, menu, menu development, menu improvement, remedy, Philippines

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10061 Consequential Investigations on the Impact of Zakat Towards the Promotion of Socio-Economic Development in Morocco: A Theoretical Framework

Authors: Mennani Maha, Attak El Houssain

Abstract:

Under the massive effect of the Covid-19 health crisis, marked by a loss of competitiveness, a slowdown in growth and an accumulation of the repercussions of socio-economic inequalities, a considerable effort must be combined, in Morocco, to put into perspective macro-political, macro-economic and social opportunities. The development of a new economic and social approach is essential in order to respond to the authenticity of the new development model that will be used by the country. The appropriation of strategies of solidarity and social cohesion constitutes a participatory, competitive and inclusive approach to support the functionalities of the economic, social and political system. Therefore, the search for alternative financial resources has become a necessity to achieve the objectives of sustainable socio-economic growth on the one hand; and to promote, on the other hands, the dynamics, of large scale, social investments. The zakat remains a site of the Islamic economy dedicated to stimulating the bases of a collective adhesion of the population on the economic, as well as on the social level, thanks to a fair and equitable distribution of the zakat funds. However, Morocco is one of the few Muslim countries that has not yet had an institution for collecting and distributing this Islamic duty, which makes it difficult to measure the socio-economic impact of zakat. This theoretical document essentially ensures the development of the crucial utility of institutionalizing zakat in order to reinforce the objectives of social solidarity in Morocco in line with the process of conceptualizing a new development model.

Keywords: zakat, socio-economic development, solidarity, social investment

Procedia PDF Downloads 146
10060 Passive and Active Spatial Pendulum Tuned Mass Damper with Two Tuning Frequencies

Authors: W. T. A. Mohammed, M. Eltaeb, R. Kashani

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The first bending modes of tall asymmetric structures in the two lateral X and Y-directions have two different natural frequencies. To add tuned damping to these bending modes, one needs to either a) use two pendulum-tuned mass dampers (PTMDs) with one tuning frequency, each PTMD targeting one of the bending modes, or b) use one PTMD with two tuning frequencies (one in each lateral directions). Option (a), being more massive, requiring more space, and being more expensive, is less attractive than option (b). Considering that the tuning frequency of a pendulum depends mainly on the pendulum length, one way of realizing option (b) is by constraining the swinging length of the pendulum in one direction but not in the other; such PTMD is dubbed passive Bi-PTMD. Alternatively, option (b) can be realized by actively setting the tuning frequencies of the PTMD in the two directions. In this work, accurate physical models of passive Bi-PTMD and active PTMD are developed and incorporated into the numerical model of a tall asymmetric structure. The model of PTMDs plus structure is used for a)synthesizing such PTMDs for particular applications and b)evaluating their damping effectiveness in mitigating the dynamic lateral responses of their target asymmetric structures, perturbed by wind load in X and Y-directions. Depending on how elaborate the control scheme is, the active PTMD can either be made to yield the same damping effectiveness as the passive Bi-PTMD of the same size or the passive Bi-TMD twice as massive as the active PTMD.

Keywords: active tuned mass damper, high-rise building, multi-frequency tuning, vibration control

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10059 Epigenetic Drugs for Major Depressive Disorder: A Critical Appraisal of Available Studies

Authors: Aniket Kumar, Jacob Peedicayil

Abstract:

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a common and important psychiatric disorder. Several clinical features of MDD suggest an epigenetic basis for its pathogenesis. Since epigenetics (heritable changes in gene expression not involving changes in DNA sequence) may underlie the pathogenesis of MDD, epigenetic drugs such as DNA methyltransferase inhibitors (DNMTi) and histone deactylase inhibitors (HDACi) may be useful for treating MDD. The available literature indexed in Pubmed on preclinical drug trials of epigenetic drugs for the treatment of MDD was investigated. The search terms we used were ‘depression’ or ‘depressive’ and ‘HDACi’ or ‘DNMTi’. Among epigenetic drugs, it was found that there were 3 preclinical trials using HDACi and 3 using DNMTi for the treatment of MDD. All the trials were conducted on rodents (mice or rats). The animal models of depression that were used were: learned helplessness-induced animal model, forced swim test, open field test, and the tail suspension test. One study used a genetic rat model of depression (the Flinders Sensitive Line). The HDACi that were tested were: sodium butyrate, compound 60 (Cpd-60), and valproic acid. The DNMTi that were tested were: 5-azacytidine and decitabine. Among the three preclinical trials using HDACi, all showed an antidepressant effect in animal models of depression. Among the 3 preclinical trials using DNMTi also, all showed an antidepressant effect in animal models of depression. Thus, epigenetic drugs, namely, HDACi and DNMTi, may prove to be useful in the treatment of MDD and merit further investigation for the treatment of this disorder.

Keywords: DNA methylation, drug discovery, epigenetics, major depressive disorder

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10058 Biotechonomy System Dynamics Modelling: Sustainability of Pellet Production

Authors: Andra Blumberga, Armands Gravelsins, Haralds Vigants, Dagnija Blumberga

Abstract:

The paper discovers biotechonomy development analysis by use of system dynamics modelling. The research is connected with investigations of biomass application for production of bioproducts with higher added value. The most popular bioresource is wood, and therefore, the main question today is about future development and eco-design of products. The paper emphasizes and evaluates energy sector which is open for use of wood logs, wood chips, wood pellets and so on. The main aim for this research study was to build a framework to analyse development perspectives for wood pellet production. To reach the goal, a system dynamics model of energy wood supplies, processing, and consumption is built. Production capacity, energy consumption, changes in energy and technology efficiency, required labour source, prices of wood, energy and labour are taken into account. Validation and verification tests with available data and information have been carried out and indicate that the model constitutes the dynamic hypothesis. It is found that the more is invested into pellets production, the higher the specific profit per production unit compared to wood logs and wood chips. As a result, wood chips production is decreasing dramatically and is replaced by wood pellets. The limiting factor for pellet industry growth is availability of wood sources. This is governed by felling limit set by the government based on sustainable forestry principles.

Keywords: bioenergy, biotechonomy, system dynamics modelling, wood pellets

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10057 Examination of How Do Smart Watches Influence the Market of Luxury Watches with Particular Regard of the Buying-Reasons

Authors: Christopher Benedikt Jakob

Abstract:

In our current society, there is no need to take a look at the wristwatch to know the exact time. Smartphones, the watch in the car or the computer watch, inform us about the time too. Over hundreds of years, luxury watches have held a fascination for human beings. Consumers buy watches that cost thousands of euros, although they could buy much cheaper watches which also fulfill the function to indicate the correct time. This shows that the functional value has got a minor meaning with reference to the buying-reasons as regards luxury watches. For a few years, people have an increased demand to track data like their walking distance per day or to track their sleep for example. Smart watches enable consumers to get information about these data. There exists a trend that people intend to optimise parts of their social life, and thus they get the impression that they are able to optimise themselves as human beings. With the help of smart watches, they are able to optimise parts of their productivity and to realise their targets at the same time. These smart watches are also offered as luxury models, and the question is: how will customers of traditional luxury watches react? Therefore this study has the intention to give answers to the question why people are willing to spend an enormous amount of money on the consumption of luxury watches. The self-expression model, the relationship basis model, the functional benefit representation model and the means-end-theory are chosen as an appropriate methodology to find reasons why human beings purchase specific luxury watches and luxury smart watches. This evaluative approach further discusses these strategies concerning for example if consumers buy luxury watches/smart watches to express the current self or the ideal self and if human beings make decisions on expected results. The research critically evaluates that relationships are compared on the basis of their advantages. Luxury brands offer socio-emotional advantages like social functions of identification and that the strong brand personality of luxury watches and luxury smart watches helps customers to structure and retrieve brand awareness which simplifies the process of decision-making. One of the goals is to identify if customers know why they like specific luxury watches and dislike others although they are produced in the same country and cost comparable prices. It is very obvious that the market for luxury watches especially for luxury smart watches is changing way faster than it has been in the past. Therefore the research examines the market changing parameters in detail.

Keywords: buying-behaviour, brand management, consumer, luxury watch, smart watch

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10056 A Non-Destructive Estimation Method for Internal Time in Perilla Leaf Using Hyperspectral Data

Authors: Shogo Nagano, Yusuke Tanigaki, Hirokazu Fukuda

Abstract:

Vegetables harvested early in the morning or late in the afternoon are valued in plant production, and so the time of harvest is important. The biological functions known as circadian clocks have a significant effect on this harvest timing. The purpose of this study was to non-destructively estimate the circadian clock and so construct a method for determining a suitable harvest time. We took eight samples of green busil (Perilla frutescens var. crispa) every 4 hours, six times for 1 day and analyzed all samples at the same time. A hyperspectral camera was used to collect spectrum intensities at 141 different wavelengths (350–1050 nm). Calculation of correlations between spectrum intensity of each wavelength and harvest time suggested the suitability of the hyperspectral camera for non-destructive estimation. However, even the highest correlated wavelength had a weak correlation, so we used machine learning to raise the accuracy of estimation and constructed a machine learning model to estimate the internal time of the circadian clock. Artificial neural networks (ANN) were used for machine learning because this is an effective analysis method for large amounts of data. Using the estimation model resulted in an error between estimated and real times of 3 min. The estimations were made in less than 2 hours. Thus, we successfully demonstrated this method of non-destructively estimating internal time.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), circadian clock, green busil, hyperspectral camera, non-destructive evaluation

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10055 Multi-Level Air Quality Classification in China Using Information Gain and Support Vector Machine

Authors: Bingchun Liu, Pei-Chann Chang, Natasha Huang, Dun Li

Abstract:

Machine Learning and Data Mining are the two important tools for extracting useful information and knowledge from large datasets. In machine learning, classification is a wildly used technique to predict qualitative variables and is generally preferred over regression from an operational point of view. Due to the enormous increase in air pollution in various countries especially China, Air Quality Classification has become one of the most important topics in air quality research and modelling. This study aims at introducing a hybrid classification model based on information theory and Support Vector Machine (SVM) using the air quality data of four cities in China namely Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Tianjin from Jan 1, 2014 to April 30, 2016. China's Ministry of Environmental Protection has classified the daily air quality into 6 levels namely Serious Pollution, Severe Pollution, Moderate Pollution, Light Pollution, Good and Excellent based on their respective Air Quality Index (AQI) values. Using the information theory, information gain (IG) is calculated and feature selection is done for both categorical features and continuous numeric features. Then SVM Machine Learning algorithm is implemented on the selected features with cross-validation. The final evaluation reveals that the IG and SVM hybrid model performs better than SVM (alone), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) models in terms of accuracy as well as complexity.

Keywords: machine learning, air quality classification, air quality index, information gain, support vector machine, cross-validation

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10054 Perceptions of Academic Staff on the Influences of Librarians and Working Colleagues Towards the Awareness and Use of Electronic Databases in Umaru Musa Yar’adua University, Katsina

Authors: Lawal Kado

Abstract:

This paper investigates the perceptions of academic staff at Umaru Musa Yar’adua University regarding the influences of librarians and working colleagues on the awareness and use of electronic databases. The study aims to provide insights into the effectiveness of these influences and suggest strategies to improve the usage of electronic databases. Research aim: The aim of this study is to determine the perceptions of academic staff on the influence of librarians and working colleagues towards the awareness and use of electronic databases in Umaru Musa Yar’adua University, Katsina. Methodology: The study adopts a quantitative method and survey research design. The survey questionnaire is distributed to 110 respondents selected through simple random sampling from a population of 523 academic staff. The collected data is analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 23. Findings: The study reveals a high level of general awareness of electronic databases in the university, largely influenced by librarians and colleagues. Librarians have played a crucial role in making academic staff aware of the available databases. The sources of information for awareness include colleagues, social media, e-mails from the library, and internet searching. Theoretical importance: This study contributes to the literature by examining the perceptions of academic staff, which can inform policymakers and stakeholders in developing strategies to maximize the use of electronic databases. Data collection and analysis procedures: The data is collected through a survey questionnaire that utilizes the Likert scaling technique. The closed-ended questions are analyzed using SPSS 23. Question addressed: The paper addresses the question of how librarians and working colleagues influence the awareness and use of electronic databases among academic staff. Conclusion: The study concludes that the influence of librarians and working colleagues significantly contributes to the awareness and use of electronic databases among academic staff. The paper recommends the establishment of dedicated departments or units for marketing library resources to further promote the usage of electronic databases.

Keywords: awareness, electronic databases, academic staff, unified theory of acceptance and use of technology, social influence

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10053 Ibadan-Nigeria Citizenship Behavior Scale: Development and Validation

Authors: Benjamin O. Ehigie, Aderemi Alarape, Nyitor Shenge, Sylvester A. Okhakhume, Timileyin Fashola, Fiyinfunjah Dosumu

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Organisational citizenship behaviour (OCB) is a construct in industrial and organisational behaviour that explains a person's voluntary commitment within an organisation, which is outside the scope of his or her contractual tasks. To attain organisational effectiveness the human factor of production is inevitable, hence the importance of employee behaviour. While the concept of organisational citizenship behavior is mostly discussed in the context of the workplace, it is reasoned that the idea could be reflective in relation to national commitment. Many developing countries in Africa, including Nigeria, suffer economic hardship today not necessarily due to poor resources but bad management of the resources. The mangers of their economies are not committed to the tenets of economic growth but engrossed in fraud, corruption, bribery, and other economic vices. It is this backdrop that necessitated the development and validation of the Ibadan-Nigeria Citizenship Behaviour (I-NCB) Scale. The study adopted a cross-sectional survey (online) research design, using 2404 postgraduate students in the Premier University of the country, with 99.2% being Nigerians and 0.8% non-Nigerians. Gender composition was 1,439 (60%) males and 965 (40%) females, 1201 (50%) were employed while 1203 50% unemployed, 74.2% of the employed were in public paid employment, 19.5% in private sector, and 6.3% were self-employed. Through literature review, 78 items were generated. Using 10 lecturers and 21 students, content and face validity were established respectively. Data collected were subjected to reliability and factor analytic statistics at p < .05 level of significance. Results of the content and face validity at 80% level of item acceptance resulted to 60 items; this was further reduced to 50 after item-total correlation using r=.30 criterion. Divergent validity of r= -.28 and convergent validity of r= .44 were obtained by correlating the I-NCB scale with standardized Counterproductive work behaviour (CWB) scale and Organisational Citizenship Behaviour (OCB) scale among the workers. The reliability coefficients obtained were; Cronbach alpha of internal consistency (α = 0.941) and split-half reliability of r = 0.728. Factor analyses of the I-NCB scale with principal component and varimax rotation yielded five factors when Eigenvalue above 1 were extracted. The factors which accounted for larger proportions of the total variance were given factor names as; Altruistic, Attachment, Affective, Civic responsibility and Allegiance. As much as there are vast journals on citizenship behaviour in organisations, there exists no standardized tool to measure citizenship behaviour of a country. The Ibadan-Nigeria Citizenship Behaviour (I-NCB) scale was consequently developed. The scale could be used to select personnel into political positions and senior administrative positions among career workers in Nigeria, with the aim of determining national commitment to service.

Keywords: counterproductive work behaviour, CWB, Nigeria Citizenship Behaviour, organisational citizenship behaviour, OCB, Ibadan

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10052 Flame Volume Prediction and Validation for Lean Blowout of Gas Turbine Combustor

Authors: Ejaz Ahmed, Huang Yong

Abstract:

The operation of aero engines has a critical importance in the vicinity of lean blowout (LBO) limits. Lefebvre’s model of LBO based on empirical correlation has been extended to flame volume concept by the authors. The flame volume takes into account the effects of geometric configuration, the complex spatial interaction of mixing, turbulence, heat transfer and combustion processes inside the gas turbine combustion chamber. For these reasons, flame volume based LBO predictions are more accurate. Although LBO prediction accuracy has improved, it poses a challenge associated with Vf estimation in real gas turbine combustors. This work extends the approach of flame volume prediction previously based on fuel iterative approximation with cold flow simulations to reactive flow simulations. Flame volume for 11 combustor configurations has been simulated and validated against experimental data. To make prediction methodology robust as required in the preliminary design stage, reactive flow simulations were carried out with the combination of probability density function (PDF) and discrete phase model (DPM) in FLUENT 15.0. The criterion for flame identification was defined. Two important parameters i.e. critical injection diameter (Dp,crit) and critical temperature (Tcrit) were identified, and their influence on reactive flow simulation was studied for Vf estimation. Obtained results exhibit ±15% error in Vf estimation with experimental data.

Keywords: CFD, combustion, gas turbine combustor, lean blowout

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10051 Structural Performance Evaluation of Segmented Wind Turbine Blade Through Finite Element Simulation

Authors: Chandrashekhar Bhat, Dilifa Jossley Noronha, Faber A. Saldana

Abstract:

Transportation of long turbine blades from one place to another is a difficult process. Hence a feasibility study of modularization of wind turbine blade was taken from structural standpoint through finite element analysis. Initially, a non-segmented blade is modeled and its structural behavior is evaluated to serve as reference. The resonant, static bending and fatigue tests are simulated in accordance with IEC61400-23 standard for comparison purpose. The non-segmented test blade is separated at suitable location based on trade off studies and the segments are joined with an innovative double strap bonded joint configuration. The adhesive joint is modeled by adopting cohesive zone modeling approach in ANSYS. The developed blade model is analyzed for its structural response through simulation. Performances of both the blades are found to be similar, which indicates that, efficient segmentation of the long blade is possible which facilitates easy transportation of the blades and on site reassembling. The location selected for segmentation and adopted joint configuration has resulted in an efficient segmented blade model which proves the methodology adopted for segmentation was quite effective. The developed segmented blade appears to be the viable alternative considering its structural response specifically in fatigue within considered assumptions.

Keywords: modularization, fatigue, cohesive zone modeling, wind turbine blade

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10050 Effect of Radiation on Magnetohydrodynamic Two Phase Stenosed Arterial Blood Flow with Heat and Mass Transfer

Authors: Bhavya Tripathi, Bhupendra Kumar Sharma

Abstract:

In blood, the concentration of red blood cell varies with the arterial diameter. In the case of narrow arteries, red blood cells concentrate around the center of the artery and there exists a cell-free plasma layer near the arterial wall due to Fahraeus-Lindqvist effect. Due to non- uniformity of the fluid in the narrow arteries, it is preferable to consider the two-phase model of the blood flow. In the present article, coupled nonlinear differential equations have been developed for momentum, energy and concentration of two phase model of the blood flow assuming the Newtonian fluid in both central core and cell free plasma layer and the exact solutions have been found for the problem. For having an adequate insight into the stenosed arterial two-phase blood flow, major components of the flow as flow resistance, total flow rate, and wall shear stress have been estimated for different values of magnetic and radiation parameter. Results show that the increase in the effects of magnetic field decreases the velocity of both cores as well as plasma regions. This result can be helpful to control the blood flow in narrow arteries during surgical process. Temperature of core as well plasma regions decrease as value of radiation parameter increases. The present result is implemented in the form of radiation therapy which is very helpful for cancer patients.

Keywords: two phase blood flow, radiation, magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), stenosis

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10049 Comparison of Slope Data between Google Earth and the Digital Terrain Model, for Registration in Car

Authors: André Felipe Gimenez, Flávia Alessandra Ribeiro da Silva, Roberto Saverio Souza Costa

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Currently, the rural producer has been facing problems regarding environmental regularization, which is precisely why the CAR (Rural Environmental Registry) was created. CAR is an electronic registry for rural properties with the purpose of assimilating notions about legal reserve areas, permanent preservation areas, areas of limited use, stable areas, forests and remnants of native vegetation, and all rural properties in Brazil. . The objective of this work was to evaluate and compare altimetry and slope data from google Earth with a digital terrain model (MDT) generated by aerophotogrammetry, in three plots of a steep slope, for the purpose of declaration in the CAR (Rural Environmental Registry). The realization of this work is justified in these areas, in which rural landowners have doubts about the reliability of the use of the free software Google Earth to diagnose inclinations greater than 25 degrees, as recommended by federal law 12651/2012. Added to the fact that in the literature, there is a deficiency of this type of study for the purpose of declaration of the CAR. The results showed that when comparing the drone altimetry data with the Google Earth image data, in areas of high slope (above 40% slope), Google underestimated the real values of terrain slope. Thus, it is concluded that Google Earth is not reliable for diagnosing areas with an inclination greater than 25 degrees (46% declivity) for the purpose of declaration in the CAR, being essential to carry out the local topographic survey.

Keywords: MDT, drone, RPA, SiCar, photogrammetry

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10048 Exposure to Bullying and General Psychopathology: A Prospective, Longitudinal Study

Authors: Jolien Rijlaarsdam, Charlotte A. M. Cecil, J. Marieke Buil, Pol A. C. Van Lier, Edward D. Barker

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Although there is mounting evidence that the experience of being bullied associates with both internalizing and externalizing symptoms, it is not known yet whether the identified associations are specific to these symptoms or shared between them. The primary focus of this study is to assess the prospective associations of bullying exposure with both general and specific (i.e., internalizing, externalizing) factors of psychopathology. This study included data from 6,210 children participating in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Child bullying was measured by self-report at ages 8 and 10 years. Child psychopathology symptoms were assessed by parent-interview, using the Development and Well-being Assessment (DAWBA) at ages 7 and 13 years. Bullying exposure is significantly associated with the general psychopathology factor in early adolescence. In particular, chronically victimized youth exposed to multiple forms of bullying (i.e., both overt and relational) showed the highest levels of general psychopathology. Bullying exposure is also associated with both internalizing and externalizing factors from the correlated-factors model. However, the effect estimates for these factors decreased considerably in size and dropped to insignificant for the internalizing factor after extracting the shared variance that belongs to the general factor of psychopathology. In an integrative longitudinal model, higher levels of general psychopathology at age seven are associated with bullying exposure at age eight, which, in turn, is associated with general psychopathology at age 13 through its two-year continuity. Findings suggest that exposure to bullying is a risk factor for a more general vulnerability to psychopathology through mutually influencing relationships.

Keywords: bullying exposure, externalizing, general psychopathology, internalizing, longitudinal

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10047 The Asymptotic Hole Shape in Long Pulse Laser Drilling: The Influence of Multiple Reflections

Authors: Torsten Hermanns, You Wang, Stefan Janssen, Markus Niessen, Christoph Schoeler, Ulrich Thombansen, Wolfgang Schulz

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In long pulse laser drilling of metals, it can be demonstrated that the ablation shape approaches a so-called asymptotic shape such that it changes only slightly or not at all with further irradiation. These findings are already known from ultra short pulse (USP) ablation of dielectric and semiconducting materials. The explanation for the occurrence of an asymptotic shape in long pulse drilling of metals is identified, a model for the description of the asymptotic hole shape numerically implemented, tested and clearly confirmed by comparison with experimental data. The model assumes a robust process in that way that the characteristics of the melt flow inside the arising melt film does not change qualitatively by changing the laser or processing parameters. Only robust processes are technically controllable and thus of industrial interest. The condition for a robust process is identified by a threshold for the mass flow density of the assist gas at the hole entrance which has to be exceeded. Within a robust process regime the melt flow characteristics can be captured by only one model parameter, namely the intensity threshold. In analogy to USP ablation (where it is already known for a long time that the resulting hole shape results from a threshold for the absorbed laser fluency) it is demonstrated that in the case of robust long pulse ablation the asymptotic shape forms in that way that along the whole contour the absorbed heat flux density is equal to the intensity threshold. The intensity threshold depends on the special material and radiation properties and has to be calibrated be one reference experiment. The model is implemented in a numerical simulation which is called AsymptoticDrill and requires such a few amount of resources that it can run on common desktop PCs, laptops or even smart devices. Resulting hole shapes can be calculated within seconds what depicts a clear advantage over other simulations presented in literature in the context of industrial every day usage. Against this background the software additionally is equipped with a user-friendly GUI which allows an intuitive usage. Individual parameters can be adjusted using sliders while the simulation result appears immediately in an adjacent window. A platform independent development allow a flexible usage: the operator can use the tool to adjust the process in a very convenient manner on a tablet during the developer can execute the tool in his office in order to design new processes. Furthermore, at the best knowledge of the authors AsymptoticDrill is the first simulation which allows the import of measured real beam distributions and thus calculates the asymptotic hole shape on the basis of the real state of the specific manufacturing system. In this paper the emphasis is placed on the investigation of the effect of multiple reflections on the asymptotic hole shape which gain in importance when drilling holes with large aspect ratios.

Keywords: asymptotic hole shape, intensity threshold, long pulse laser drilling, robust process

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10046 Poverty Status and Determinants of Income Diversification among Rural Households of Pakistan

Authors: Saba Javed, Abdul Majeed Nadeem, Imran Qaiser, Muhammad Asif Kamran, Azka Amin

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This study is designed to determine the poverty status and determinants of income diversification in rural areas of Pakistan using cross sectional data of Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) for 2010-2011. The variables used for measuring income diversification are demographic indicators, poverty status, and income of households. Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) poverty measures show that 43.1% poor and 56.9% non-poor resided in rural areas of Pakistan. A Tobit model was employed to examine the determinants of livelihood diversification among households. The result showed that age, gender, marital status, household size and province have significant impact on income diversification. The data show that non-poor and female headed household with higher family size diversify more as compared to poor, male headed household with small size of family members. The place of residence (province used as proxy for place) also plays important role for income diversification as Sindh Province was found more diversified as compared to Punjab and Khyber Pakhtoon Kha (KPK). It is recommended to improve the ways of income diversification among rural household to reduce poverty among them. This can be done by more investment in education with universal access for poor and remote localities households.

Keywords: poverty, income diversification, rural Pakistan, Tobit regression model, FGT

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10045 Empowerment Model: A Strategy for Supporting Creative Economy through Traditional Weaving in Anajiaka Village

Authors: Sita Yuliastuti Amijaya, Wiyatiningsih Wiyatiningsih, Paulus Bawole

Abstract:

Weaving skills were not originally a way to earn money for the traditional people on Sumba Island. Weaving is a leisure activity carried out between farming and caring for families. It is quite understandable if the weavers are women. At this time, weaving crafts become a unique potential inherent in an area, so that the weaver women also have the potential to drive economic activity in regional tourism sector. This study aims to measure the sustainability of traditional weaving business activities in Anajiaka Village, Umbu Ratu Nggay Barat, Central Sumba Regency, which is able to support the creative economy. The analysis was performed using qualitative descriptive methods by comparing the criteria of smart living and smart economy in the study of smart city. This study found that business sustainability will be better maintained if it is bound in a joint commitment, for example by forming a group of craftsmen. Other challenges besides the commitment of the group members are aspects of local government support and related agencies, in the form of guidance, funding, and promotion. In addition, fabric order targets, maintaining family and community balance, are recognized as obstacles for craftsmen. The modern marketing model is not yet mastered by the craftsmen group, so it needs assistance for future development.

Keywords: agriculture, craftsmen, creativepreneur, smart economy, smart living

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10044 A Second Spark Ignition Timing for the High Power Aircraft Radial Engine Using a CFD Transient Modeling

Authors: Tytus Tulwin, Adam Majczak

Abstract:

In aviation most important systems that impact the aircraft flight safety are duplicated. The ASz-62IR aircraft radial engine consists of two spark plugs powered by two separate magnetos. The relative difference in spark timing has an influence on the combustion process. The retardation of the second spark relative to the first spark was analyzed. The CFD simulation was developed as a multicycle transient model. Two independent spark sources imitate two flame fronts after an ignition period. It makes the combustion process shorter but only for certain range of second spark retardation. The model was validated by the in-cylinder pressure comparison. Combustion parameters were analyzed for different second spark retardation values. It was found that the most advantageous ignition timing in means of performance is simultaneous ignition. Nevertheless, for this engine the ignition time of the second spark plug is greatly retarded eliminating the advantageous performance influence. The reason behind this is maintaining high ignition certainty for all engine running conditions and for whole operating rpm range. In aviation the engine reliability is more important than its performance. Introducing electronic ignition system can yield from simultaneous ignition timing by increasing the engine performance and providing good reliability for all flight conditions. This work has been financed by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development, INNOLOT, under Grant Agreement No. INNOLOT/I/1/NCBR/2013.

Keywords: CFD, combustion, ignition, simulation, timing

Procedia PDF Downloads 389
10043 Analysis of Capillarity Phenomenon Models in Primary and Secondary Education in Spain: A Case Study on the Design, Implementation, and Analysis of an Inquiry-Based Teaching Sequence

Authors: E. Cascarosa-Salillas, J. Pozuelo-Muñoz, C. Rodríguez-Casals, A. de Echave

Abstract:

This study focuses on improving the understanding of the capillarity phenomenon among Primary and Secondary Education students. Despite being a common concept in daily life and covered in various subjects, students’ comprehension remains limited. This work explores inquiry-based teaching methods to build a conceptual foundation of capillarity by examining the forces involved. The study adopts an inquiry-based teaching approach supported by research emphasizing the importance of modeling in science education. Scientific modeling aids students in applying knowledge across varied contexts and developing systemic thinking, allowing them to construct scientific models applicable to everyday situations. This methodology fosters the development of scientific competencies such as observation, hypothesis formulation, and communication. The research was structured as a case study with activities designed for Spanish Primary and Secondary Education students aged 9 to 13. The process included curriculum analysis, the design of an activity sequence, and its implementation in classrooms. Implementation began with questions that students needed to resolve using available materials, encouraging observation, experimentation, and the re-contextualization of activities to everyday phenomena where capillarity is observed. Data collection tools included audio and video recordings of the sessions, which were transcribed and analyzed alongside the students' written work. Students' drawings on capillarity were also collected and categorized. Qualitative analyses of the activities showed that, through inquiry, students managed to construct various models of capillarity, reflecting an improved understanding of the phenomenon. Initial activities allowed students to express prior ideas and formulate hypotheses, which were then refined and expanded in subsequent sessions. The generalization and use of graphical representations of their ideas on capillarity, analyzed alongside their written work, enabled the categorization of capillarity models: Intuitive Model: A visual and straightforward representation without explanations of how or why it occurs. Simple symbolic elements, such as arrows to indicate water rising, are used without detailed or causal understanding. It reflects an initial, immediate perception of the phenomenon, interpreted as something that happens "on its own" without delving into the microscopic level. Explanatory Intuitive Model: Students begin to incorporate causal explanations, though still limited and without complete scientific accuracy. They represent the role of materials and use basic terms such as ‘absorption’ or ‘attraction’ to describe the rise of water. This model shows a more complex understanding where the phenomenon is not only observed but also partially explained in terms of interaction, though without microscopic detail. School Scientific Model: This model reflects a more advanced and detailed understanding. Students represent the phenomenon using specific scientific concepts like ‘surface tension,’ cohesion,’ and ‘adhesion,’ including structured explanations connecting microscopic and macroscopic levels. At this level, students model the phenomenon as a coherent system, demonstrating how various forces or properties interact in the capillarity process, with representations on a microscopic level. The study demonstrated that the capillarity phenomenon can be effectively approached in class through the experimental observation of everyday phenomena, explained through guided inquiry learning. The methodology facilitated students’ construction of capillarity models and served to analyze an interaction phenomenon of different forces occurring at the microscopic level.

Keywords: capillarity, inquiry-based learning, scientific modeling, primary and secondary education, conceptual understanding, Drawing analysis.

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10042 Parametric Study and Design on under Reamed Pile - An Experimental and Numerical Study

Authors: S. Chandrakaran, Aarthy D.

Abstract:

Abstract: Under reamed piles are piles which are of different types like bored cast in-situ pile or bored compaction concrete piles where one or more bulbs are provided. In this paper, the design procedure of under reamed pile by both experimental study and numerical study using PLAXIS 3D Foundation software was studied. The soil chosen for study was M Sand. The Single and double under reamed pile modelling was made using mild steel. The pile load test experiment was conducted in the laboratory and the ultimate compression load for 25 mm settlement on single and double under reamed pile was observed and finally the result was compared with conventional pile (pile without bulb). The parametric influence on under reamed pile was studied by varying the geometrical parameters like diameter of bulbs, spacing between bulbs, position of bulbs and number of bulbs. The results of the numerical model showed that when the diameter of bulb D u =2.5D, the ultimate compression load for an under-reamed pile with a single bulb increased by 55 % compared to a pile without a bulb. It was observed that when the spacing between the bulbs was S=6D u with three different positions of bulb from bottom of pile as D u , 2D u and 3D u , the ultimate compression load increased by 88%, 94% and 73 % respectively, compared to the ultimate compression load for 25 mm settlement on conventional pile and if spacing was more than 6D u , ultimate compression load for 25 mm settlement started to decrease. It was observed that when the bucket length was more than 2D u , the ultimate compression

Keywords: load capcity, under remed bulb . sand, model study, sand

Procedia PDF Downloads 92
10041 A Dataset of Program Educational Objectives Mapped to ABET Outcomes: Data Cleansing, Exploratory Data Analysis and Modeling

Authors: Addin Osman, Anwar Ali Yahya, Mohammed Basit Kamal

Abstract:

Datasets or collections are becoming important assets by themselves and now they can be accepted as a primary intellectual output of a research. The quality and usage of the datasets depend mainly on the context under which they have been collected, processed, analyzed, validated, and interpreted. This paper aims to present a collection of program educational objectives mapped to student’s outcomes collected from self-study reports prepared by 32 engineering programs accredited by ABET. The manual mapping (classification) of this data is a notoriously tedious, time consuming process. In addition, it requires experts in the area, which are mostly not available. It has been shown the operational settings under which the collection has been produced. The collection has been cleansed, preprocessed, some features have been selected and preliminary exploratory data analysis has been performed so as to illustrate the properties and usefulness of the collection. At the end, the collection has been benchmarked using nine of the most widely used supervised multiclass classification techniques (Binary Relevance, Label Powerset, Classifier Chains, Pruned Sets, Random k-label sets, Ensemble of Classifier Chains, Ensemble of Pruned Sets, Multi-Label k-Nearest Neighbors and Back-Propagation Multi-Label Learning). The techniques have been compared to each other using five well-known measurements (Accuracy, Hamming Loss, Micro-F, Macro-F, and Macro-F). The Ensemble of Classifier Chains and Ensemble of Pruned Sets have achieved encouraging performance compared to other experimented multi-label classification methods. The Classifier Chains method has shown the worst performance. To recap, the benchmark has achieved promising results by utilizing preliminary exploratory data analysis performed on the collection, proposing new trends for research and providing a baseline for future studies.

Keywords: ABET, accreditation, benchmark collection, machine learning, program educational objectives, student outcomes, supervised multi-class classification, text mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 173
10040 Artificial Neural Network and Satellite Derived Chlorophyll Indices for Estimation of Wheat Chlorophyll Content under Rainfed Condition

Authors: Muhammad Naveed Tahir, Wang Yingkuan, Huang Wenjiang, Raheel Osman

Abstract:

Numerous models used in prediction and decision-making process but most of them are linear in natural environment, and linear models reach their limitations with non-linearity in data. Therefore accurate estimation is difficult. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) found extensive acceptance to address the modeling of the complex real world for the non-linear environment. ANN’s have more general and flexible functional forms than traditional statistical methods can effectively deal with. The link between information technology and agriculture will become more firm in the near future. Monitoring crop biophysical properties non-destructively can provide a rapid and accurate understanding of its response to various environmental influences. Crop chlorophyll content is an important indicator of crop health and therefore the estimation of crop yield. In recent years, remote sensing has been accepted as a robust tool for site-specific management by detecting crop parameters at both local and large scales. The present research combined the ANN model with satellite-derived chlorophyll indices from LANDSAT 8 imagery for predicting real-time wheat chlorophyll estimation. The cloud-free scenes of LANDSAT 8 were acquired (Feb-March 2016-17) at the same time when ground-truthing campaign was performed for chlorophyll estimation by using SPAD-502. Different vegetation indices were derived from LANDSAT 8 imagery using ERADAS Imagine (v.2014) software for chlorophyll determination. The vegetation indices were including Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GNDVI), Chlorophyll Absorbed Ratio Index (CARI), Modified Chlorophyll Absorbed Ratio Index (MCARI) and Transformed Chlorophyll Absorbed Ratio index (TCARI). For ANN modeling, MATLAB and SPSS (ANN) tools were used. Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) in MATLAB provided very satisfactory results. For training purpose of MLP 61.7% of the data, for validation purpose 28.3% of data and rest 10% of data were used to evaluate and validate the ANN model results. For error evaluation, sum of squares error and relative error were used. ANN model summery showed that sum of squares error of 10.786, the average overall relative error was .099. The MCARI and NDVI were revealed to be more sensitive indices for assessing wheat chlorophyll content with the highest coefficient of determination R²=0.93 and 0.90 respectively. The results suggested that use of high spatial resolution satellite imagery for the retrieval of crop chlorophyll content by using ANN model provides accurate, reliable assessment of crop health status at a larger scale which can help in managing crop nutrition requirement in real time.

Keywords: ANN, chlorophyll content, chlorophyll indices, satellite images, wheat

Procedia PDF Downloads 150
10039 Drivers of Adoption Intensity of Certified Maize Varieties in Northern Guinea Savannah of Nigeria: A Triple Hurdle Model Approach

Authors: Kalat P. Duniya

Abstract:

A number of technologies expected to increase maize productivity have been introduced by several research programs at national and international level. To this end, the study sought to identify the factors influencing adoption intensity of certified maize varieties. The data used were obtained from a sample household survey of 406 maize farmers, conducted in the northern guinea savannah of Nigeria through multistage stratified sampling, structured questionnaire. A triple hurdle model was adopted to estimate the determinants of adoption intensity; considering awareness, adoption, and intensity as three separate stages. The result showed that the drivers of farmers’ awareness, adoption, and intensity of usage may not necessarily be the same, and where they are, not of the same magnitude and direction. However, factors which were found to be statistically significant were age, education, membership of association and frequency of extension advice. In addition, awareness and adoption of the technologies were likely to be increased with male respondents. Farmers that were members of either community organizations or cooperative organizations had a higher tendency of being aware and adopting certified maize seed varieties. It was also discovered that though some of the farmers were fully aware of the existence of some certified maize varieties, majority lacked detailed knowledge and technical know-how. There is a need for creation of awareness through an excellent trained extension and restructuring of the educational sector to improve on the adoption process as well as improve maize productivity in the country.

Keywords: adoption, awareness, maize farmers, Nigeria, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 179
10038 The Factors Affecting the Use of Massive Open Online Courses in Blended Learning by Lecturers in Universities

Authors: Taghreed Alghamdi, Wendy Hall, David Millard

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Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) have recently gained widespread interest in the academic world, starting a wide range of discussion of a number of issues. One of these issues, using MOOCs in teaching and learning in the higher education by integrating MOOCs’ contents with traditional face-to-face activities in blended learning format, is called blended MOOCs (bMOOCs) and is intended not to replace traditional learning but to enhance students learning. Most research on MOOCs has focused on students’ perception and institutional threats whereas there is a lack of published research on academics’ experiences and practices. Thus, the first aim of the study is to develop a classification of blended MOOCs models by conducting a systematic literature review, classifying 19 different case studies, and identifying the broad types of bMOOCs models namely: Supplementary Model and Integrated Model. Thus, the analyses phase will emphasize on these different types of bMOOCs models in terms of adopting MOOCs by lecturers. The second aim of the study is to improve the understanding of lecturers’ acceptance of bMOOCs by investigate the factors that influence academics’ acceptance of using MOOCs in traditional learning by distributing an online survey to lecturers who participate in MOOCs platforms. These factors can help institutions to encourage their lecturers to integrate MOOCs with their traditional courses in universities.

Keywords: acceptance, blended learning, blended MOOCs, higher education, lecturers, MOOCs, professors

Procedia PDF Downloads 134
10037 Influence of Spelling Errors on English Language Performance among Learners with Dysgraphia in Public Primary Schools in Embu County, Kenya

Authors: Madrine King'endo

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This study dealt with the influence of spelling errors on English language performance among learners with dysgraphia in public primary schools in West Embu, Embu County, Kenya. The study purposed to investigate the influence of spelling errors on the English language performance among the class three pupils with dysgraphia in public primary schools. The objectives of the study were to identify the spelling errors that learners with dysgraphia make when writing English words and classify the spelling errors they make. Further, the study will establish how the spelling errors affect the performance of the language among the study participants, and suggest the remediation strategies that teachers could use to address the errors. The study could provide the stakeholders with relevant information in writing skills that could help in developing a responsive curriculum to accommodate the teaching and learning needs of learners with dysgraphia, and probably ensure training of teachers in teacher training colleges is tailored within the writing needs of the pupils with dysgraphia. The study was carried out in Embu county because the researcher did not find any study in related literature review concerning the influence of spelling errors on English language performance among learners with dysgraphia in public primary schools done in the area. Moreover, besides being relatively populated enough for a sample population of the study, the area was fairly cosmopolitan to allow a generalization of the study findings. The study assumed the sampled schools will had class three pupils with dysgraphia who exhibited written spelling errors. The study was guided by two spelling approaches: the connectionist stimulation of spelling process and orthographic autonomy hypothesis with a view to explain how participants with learning disabilities spell written words. Data were collected through interviews, pupils’ exercise books, and progress records, and a spelling test made by the researcher based on the spelling scope set for class three pupils by the ministry of education in the primary education syllabus. The study relied on random sampling techniques in identifying general and specific participants. Since the study used children in schools as participants, voluntary consent was sought from themselves, their teachers and the school head teachers who were their caretakers in a school setting.

Keywords: dysgraphia, writing, language, performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 157
10036 The Interoperability between CNC Machine Tools and Robot Handling Systems Based on an Object-Oriented Framework

Authors: Pouyan Jahanbin, Mahmoud Houshmand, Omid Fatahi Valilai

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A flexible manufacturing system (FMS) is a manufacturing system having the capability of handling the variations of products features that is the result of ever-changing customer demands. The flexibility of the manufacturing systems help to utilize the resources in a more effective manner. However, the control of such systems would be complicated and challenging. FMS needs CNC machines and robots and other resources for establishing the flexibility and enhancing the efficiency of the whole system. Also it needs to integrate the resources to reach required efficiency and flexibility. In order to reach this goal, an integrator framework is proposed in which the machining data of CNC machine tools is received through a STEP-NC file. The interoperability of the system is achieved by the information system. This paper proposes an information system that its data model is designed based on object oriented approach and is implemented through a knowledge-based system. The framework is connected to a database which is filled with robot’s control commands. The framework programs the robots by rules embedded in its knowledge based system. It also controls the interactions of CNC machine tools for loading and unloading actions by robot. As a result, the proposed framework improves the integration of manufacturing resources in Flexible Manufacturing Systems.

Keywords: CNC machine tools, industrial robots, knowledge-based systems, manufacturing recourses integration, flexible manufacturing system (FMS), object-oriented data model

Procedia PDF Downloads 460
10035 Assessment of Pre-Processing Influence on Near-Infrared Spectra for Predicting the Mechanical Properties of Wood

Authors: Aasheesh Raturi, Vimal Kothiyal, P. D. Semalty

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We studied mechanical properties of Eucalyptus tereticornis using FT-NIR spectroscopy. Firstly, spectra were pre-processed to eliminate useless information. Then, prediction model was constructed by partial least squares regression. To study the influence of pre-processing on prediction of mechanical properties for NIR analysis of wood samples, we applied various pretreatment methods like straight line subtraction, constant offset elimination, vector-normalization, min-max normalization, multiple scattering. Correction, first derivative, second derivatives and their combination with other treatment such as First derivative + straight line subtraction, First derivative+ vector normalization and First derivative+ multiplicative scattering correction. The data processing methods in combination of preprocessing with different NIR regions, RMSECV, RMSEP and optimum factors/rank were obtained by optimization process of model development. More than 350 combinations were obtained during optimization process. More than one pre-processing method gave good calibration/cross-validation and prediction/test models, but only the best calibration/cross-validation and prediction/test models are reported here. The results show that one can safely use NIR region between 4000 to 7500 cm-1 with straight line subtraction, constant offset elimination, first derivative and second derivative preprocessing method which were found to be most appropriate for models development.

Keywords: FT-NIR, mechanical properties, pre-processing, PLS

Procedia PDF Downloads 365
10034 Identifying Diabetic Retinopathy Complication by Predictive Techniques in Indian Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients

Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

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Predicting the risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in Indian type 2 diabetes patients is immensely necessary. India, being the second largest country after China in terms of a number of diabetic patients, to the best of our knowledge not a single risk score for complications has ever been investigated. Diabetic retinopathy is a serious complication and is the topmost reason for visual impairment across countries. Any type or form of DR has been taken as the event of interest, be it mild, back, grade I, II, III, and IV DR. A sample was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of DR. Cox proportional hazard regression is used to design risk scores for the prediction of retinopathy. Model calibration and discrimination are assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Overfitting and underfitting of the model are checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Optimal cut off point is chosen by Youden’s index. Five-year probability of DR is predicted by both survival function, and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores developed can be applied by doctors and patients themselves for self evaluation. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be applied as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients. This provides immense benefit in real application of DR prediction in T2DM.

Keywords: Cox proportional hazard regression, diabetic retinopathy, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes mellitus

Procedia PDF Downloads 190