Search results for: risk of failure

Authors: Florian Lienert, Peter Costa, Caroline Aurensan, Elaine Melander

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Introduction: Rabies pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can be given before travel and simplifies post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). We studied the knowledge about rabies, the uptake of PrEP, and reasons for deciding for or against PrEP in at-risk travelers. We also examined how healthcare professionals (HCPs) counsel on rabies prevention. Methods: On behalf of Bavarian Nordic, Ipsos MORI conducted two online surveys in the USA. Fieldwork from February 24th to April 23rd, 2021, 689 participants aged 18-85 years, visited one of 91 endemic rabies countries in the past 3 years for at least one week, involved in at least 1 of 7 at-risk activities, heard of rabies, positive towards vaccination and chose to take part (surveyed travelers). Secondly, 76 HCPs, with responsibility for advising/ making decisions about vaccination requirements for their patients, personally recommend or prescribe vaccines for rabies, positive towards vaccination and chose to take part (surveyed HCPs). Results: A minority (36%) of surveyed travelers classified rabies as a life-threatening disease. A third of surveyed HCPs (37%) did not discuss rabies vaccination with at-risk travelers, 18% discussed only PEP, 23% only PrEP and 22% both. A minority (21%) of surveyed travelers reported having received rabies vaccination since they were 18. Among those participants (n=145), the most common reasons for deciding to get PrEP were for their own peace of mind (35%) and following an HCP recommendation (32%). Of those who decided not to receive the rabies vaccine (n=319), the most common reasons were that they did not think their risk of rabies was sufficient (23%) and that the HCP did not suggest it (23%). Conclusions: The survey demonstrated knowledge gaps around rabies and low PrEP coverage among surveyed travelers. It also highlighted the role of HCP recommendations and showed that most HCPs did not discuss PrEP with at-risk travelers.

Keywords: rabies, pre-exposure prophylaxis, travel, travel health, post-travel care, rabies treatment, vaccine, post-exposure, prophylaxis, at-risk, education, PrEP, PEP

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Authors: M. Bahari Mehrabani, Hua-Peng Chen

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Management and maintenance of coastal defence structures during the expected life cycle have become a real challenge for decision makers and engineers. Accurate evaluation of the current condition and future performance of flood defence structures is essential for effective practical maintenance strategies on the basis of available field inspection data. Moreover, as coastal defence structures age, it becomes more challenging to implement maintenance and management plans to avoid structural failure. Therefore, condition inspection data are essential for assessing damage and forecasting deterioration of ageing flood defence structures in order to keep the structures in an acceptable condition. The inspection data for flood defence structures are often collected using discrete visual condition rating schemes. In order to evaluate future condition of the structure, a probabilistic deterioration model needs to be utilised. However, existing deterioration models may not provide a reliable prediction of performance deterioration for a long period due to uncertainties. To tackle the limitation, a time-dependent condition-based model associated with a transition probability needs to be developed on the basis of condition grade scheme for flood defences. This paper presents a probabilistic method for predicting future performance deterioration of coastal flood defence structures based on condition grading inspection data and deterioration curves estimated by expert judgement. In condition-based deterioration modelling, the main task is to estimate transition probability matrices. The deterioration process of the structure related to the transition states is modelled according to Markov chain process, and a reliability-based approach is used to estimate the probability of structural failure. Visual inspection data according to the United Kingdom Condition Assessment Manual are used to obtain the initial condition grade curve of the coastal flood defences. The initial curves then modified in order to develop transition probabilities through non-linear regression based optimisation algorithms. The Monte Carlo simulations are then used to evaluate the future performance of the structure on the basis of the estimated transition probabilities. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method under no-maintenance and medium-maintenance scenarios. Results show that the proposed method can provide an effective predictive model for various situations in terms of available condition grading data. The proposed model also provides useful information on time-dependent probability of failure in coastal flood defences.

Keywords: condition grading, flood defense, performance assessment, stochastic deterioration modelling

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Authors: Benjamin Sonnenreich

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Brittle fracture failure probability is best described using a stochastic approach which is based on the 'weakest link concept' and the connection between a microstructure and macroscopic fracture scale. A general theoretical and experimental framework is presented to predict the uniaxial strength distribution according to independent uniaxial test data. The framework takes as input the applied stresses, the geometry, the materials, the defect distributions and the relevant random variables from uniaxial test results and gives as output an overall failure probability that can be used to improve the reliability of practical designs. Additionally, the method facilitates comparisons of strength data from several sources, uniaxial tests, and sample geometries.

Keywords: brittle fracture, strength distribution, uniaxial, weakest link concept

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Authors: Haykal. Kay-Anne

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The health and well-being of students is a priority for the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Ottawa. The demands of medical studies are extreme, and many studies confirm that the prevalence of psychological distress is very high among medical students and that it is higher than that of the general population of the same age. The main goal is to identify risk factors for mental health among medical students at the University of Ottawa. The secondary objectives are to determine the variation of these risk factors according to demographic variables, as well as to determine if there is a change in the mental health of students during the 1st and 3rd years of their study. Medical students have a mandatory first and third-year wellness check meeting. This assessment includes a questionnaire on demographic information, mental health, and risk factors such as physical health, sleep, social support, financial stress, education and career, stress and drug use and/or alcohol. Student responses were converted to numerical values and analyzed statistically. The results show that 61% of the variation in the mean of the mental health score is explained by the following risk factors (R2 = 0.61, F (9.396) = 67.197, p < 0.01): lack of sleep and fatigue (β = 0.281, p < 0.001), lack of social support (β = 0.217, p <0.001), poor study or career development (β = 0.195, p < 0.001) and an increase stress and drug and alcohol use (β = -0.239, p < 0.001). No demographic variable has a significant effect on the presence of risk factors. In addition, fixed-effects regression demonstrated significantly lower mental health (p < 0.1) among first-year students (M = 0.587, SD = 0.072) than among third-year students (M = 0.719, SD = 0.071). This preliminary study indicates the need to continue data collection and analysis to increase the significance of the study results. As risk factors are present at the beginning of medical studies, it is important to offer resources to students very early in their medical studies and to have close monitoring and supervision.

Keywords: assessment of mental health, medical students, risk factors for mental health, wellness assessment

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Authors: Asal Pournaghshband, Roham Maher

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This study presents a numerical analysis of the cyclic behavior of H-shaped steel columns, focusing on different steel grades, including austenitic, ferritic, duplex stainless steel, and carbon steel. Finite Element (FE) models were developed and validated against experimental data, demonstrating a predictive accuracy of up to 6.5%. The study examined key parameters such as energy dissipation, and failure modes. Results indicate that duplex stainless steel offers the highest strength, with superior energy dissipation but a tendency for brittle failure at maximum strains of 0.149. Austenitic stainless steel demonstrated balanced performance with excellent ductility and energy dissipation, showing a maximum strain of 0.122, making it highly suitable for seismic applications. Ferritic stainless steel, while stronger than carbon steel, exhibited reduced ductility and energy absorption. Carbon steel displayed the lowest performance in terms of energy dissipation and ductility, with significant strain concentrations leading to earlier failure. These findings provide critical insights into optimizing material selection for earthquake-resistant structures, balancing strength, ductility, and energy dissipation under seismic conditions.

Keywords: Energy dissipation, finite element analysis, H-shaped columns, seismic performance, stainless steel grades

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Authors: Nooshin Salari, Viliam Makis, Jane Doe

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This paper presents a maintenance policy for a system consisting of two units. Unit 1 is gradually deteriorating and is subject to soft failure. Unit 2 has a general lifetime distribution and is subject to hard failure. Condition of unit 1 of the system is monitored periodically and it is considered as failed when its deterioration level reaches or exceeds a critical level N. At the failure time of unit 2 system is considered as failed, and unit 2 will be correctively replaced by the next inspection epoch. Unit 1 or 2 are preventively replaced when deterioration level of unit 1 or age of unit 2 exceeds the related preventive maintenance (PM) levels. At the time of corrective or preventive replacement of unit 2, there is an opportunity to replace unit 1 if its deterioration level reaches the opportunistic maintenance (OM) level. If unit 2 fails in an inspection interval, system stops operating although unit 1 has not failed. A mathematical model is derived to find the preventive and opportunistic replacement levels for unit 1 and preventive replacement age for unit 2, that minimize the long run expected average cost per unit time. The problem is formulated and solved in the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. Numerical example is provided to illustrate the performance of the proposed model and the comparison of the proposed model with an optimal policy without opportunistic maintenance level for unit 1 is carried out.

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, opportunistic maintenance, preventive maintenance, two-unit system

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Authors: Leandi Steenkamp

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The sectional title industry has been a part of the property landscape in South Africa for almost half a century, and plays a significant role in addressing the housing problem in the country. Stakeholders such as owners and investors in sectional title property are in most cases not directly involved in the management thereof, and place reliance on the audited annual financial statements of bodies corporate for decision-making purposes. Although the industry seems to be highly regulated, the legislation regarding accounting and auditing of sectional title is vague and ambiguous. Furthermore, there are no industry-specific auditing and accounting standards to guide accounting and auditing practitioners in performing their work and industry financial benchmarks are not readily available. In addition, financial pressure on sectional title schemes is often very high due to the fact that some owners exercise unrealistic pressure to keep monthly levies as low as possible. All these factors have an impact on the business risk as well as audit risk of bodies corporate. Very little academic research has been undertaken on the sectional title industry in South Africa from an accounting and auditing perspective. The aim of this paper is threefold: Firstly, to discuss the findings of a literature review on uncertainties, ambiguity and confusing aspects in current legislation regarding the audit of a sectional title property that may cause or increase audit and business risk. Secondly, empirical findings of risk-related aspects from the results of interviews with three groups of body corporate role-players will be discussed. The role-players were body corporate trustee chairpersons, body corporate managing agents and accounting and auditing practitioners of bodies corporate. Specific reference will be made to business risk and audit risk. Thirdly, practical recommendations will be made on possibilities of closing the audit expectation gap, and further research opportunities in this regard will be discussed.

Keywords: assurance, audit, audit risk, body corporate, corporate governance, sectional title

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Authors: Praveen Huded, Suresh Dash

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Pile foundations are one of the most preferred deep foundation system for high rise or heavily loaded structures. In many instances, the failure of the pile founded structures in liquefiable soils had been observed even in many recent earthquakes. Recent centrifuge and shake table experiments on two layered soil system have credibly shown that failure of pile foundation can occur because of buckling, as the pile behaves as an unsupported slender structural element once the surrounding soil liquefies. However the buckling capacity depends on largely on the depth of soil liquefied and its residual strength. Hence it is essential to check the pile against the possible buckling failure. Beam on non-linear Winkler Foundation is one of the efficient method to model the pile-soil behavior in liquefiable soil. The pile-soil interaction is modelled through p-y springs, different author have proposed different types of p-y curves for the liquefiable soil. In the present paper the influence two such p-y curves on the buckling capacity of pile foundation is studied considering initial geometric and non-linear behavior of pile foundation. The proposed method is validated against experimental results. Significant difference in the buckling capacity is observed for the two p-y curves used in the analysis. A parametric study is conducted to understand the influence of pile diameter, pile flexural rigidity, different initial geometric imperfections, and different soil relative densities on buckling capacity of pile foundation.

Keywords: Pile foundation , Liquefaction, Buckling load, non-linear py curve, Opensees

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Authors: Sadaf Ambreen, Ayesha Bibi, Sara Rafiq

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Hypertension is a medical condition in which blood pressure in the arteries is elevated than the normal, having systolic blood pressure more than 120mmHg and diastolic blood pressure more than 80 mmHg. It leads to health complications and increase the risk of diseases such as stroke, heart failure, heart attack, and even death. The aim of the current study was to evaluate nutritional status and activity level among hypertensive early adults in District Mardan Data was collected from the subjects of Public Hospital, Mardan Medical Complex, through questionnaire. A complete information about individual sociodemographic, anthropometry and health status were collected, and physical activity was assessed by using IPAQ questionnaire. A total of 150 individuals were included in the study, in which 90% were females, and 10% were males. Data was analyzed through SPSS Version 22. Majority of the study subjects, 88%, were married, 70% having nuclear living system, 43% were having elementary education, and 43% were working as laborer. Body mass index and waist circumference in female counterpart were found to be positively associated with hypertension and was found statistically significant P=<0.01. Results showed that majority of females were fall in hypertension crisis category with mild activity, and males were having hypertension stage 1 with moderate activity. Our study concluded that non-optimal nutritional status and physical inactivity resulted in elevated blood pressure in females, therefore, lifestyle change such as optimal nutritional status and physical activity may play key role in reducing risk of hypertension.

Keywords: obesity/overwight, body mass index, waist circumference, early adulthood

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Authors: Sara Ataei, Maryam Taghizadeh-Ghehi, Amir Sarayani, Asieh Ashouri, Amirhossein Moslehi, Molouk Hadjibabaie, Kheirollah Gholami

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Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common in hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) patients with an incidence of 21–73%. Prevention and early diagnosis reduces the frequency and severity of this complication. Predictive biomarkers are of major importance to timely diagnosis. Neutrophil gelatinase associated lipocalin (NGAL) is a widely investigated novel biomarker for early diagnosis of AKI. However, no study assessed NGAL for AKI diagnosis in HSCT patients. Methods: We performed further analyses on gathered data from our recent trial to evaluate the performance of urine NGAL (uNGAL) as an indicator of AKI in 72 allogeneic HSCT patients. AKI diagnosis and severity were assessed using Risk–Injury–Failure–Loss–End-stage renal disease and AKI Network criteria. We assessed uNGAL on days -6, -3, +3, +9 and +15. Results: Time-dependent Cox regression analysis revealed a statistically significant relationship between uNGAL and AKI occurrence. (HR=1.04 (1.008-1.07), P=0.01). There was a relation between uNGAL day +9 to baseline ratio and incidence of AKI (unadjusted HR=.1.047(1.012-1.083), P<0.01). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for day +9 to baseline ratio was 0.86 (0.74-0.99, P<0.01) and a cut-off value of 2.62 was 85% sensitive and 83% specific in predicting AKI. Conclusions: Our results indicated that increase in uNGAL augmented the risk of AKI and the changes of day +9 uNGAL concentrations from baseline could be of value for predicting AKI in HSCT patients. Additionally uNGAL changes preceded serum creatinine rises by nearly 2 days.

Keywords: acute kidney injury, hemtopoietic stem cell transplantation, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, Receiver-operating characteristic curve

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Authors: Hao-Jun Hong, Jung-Tang Huang

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The world is gradually becoming an aging society, and with the lack of laboring forces, this phenomenon is affecting the nation’s economy growth. Although nursing centers are booming in recent years, the lack of medical resources are yet to be resolved, thus creating an innovative wearable medical device could be a vital solution. This research is focused on the design and development of a wearable device which obtains a more precise heart failure measurement than products on the market. The method used by the device is based on the sensor fusion and big data algorithm. From the test result, the modified structure of wearable device can significantly decrease the MA (Motion Artifact) and provide users a more cozy and accurate physical monitor experience.

Keywords: big data, heart failure, motion artifact, sensor fusion, wearable medical device

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Authors: A. Majidian

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The life prediction of thermal power plant components is necessary to prevent the unexpected outages, optimize maintenance tasks in periodic overhauls and plan inspection tasks with their schedules. One of the main critical components in a power plant is condenser because its failure can affect many other components which are positioned in downstream of condenser. This paper deals with factors affecting life of condenser. Failure rates dependency vs. these factors has been investigated using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and fuzzy logic algorithms. These algorithms have shown their capabilities as dynamic tools to evaluate life prediction of power plant equipments.

Keywords: life prediction, condenser tube, neural network, fuzzy logic

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Authors: Saeed Yazdani, Sima Mohamadi Amidabadi, Amir Mohamadi Nejad, Farahnaz Nekoofar

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As a result of uncertainty and doubts about the quantity of agricultural products, greater significance has been attached to risk management in the agricultural sector. Normally, farmers seek to minimize risks, and crop diversity has always been a means to reduce risk. The study at hand seeks to explore the long-term impact of crop diversity on income risk reduction. The timeframe of the study is 1998 to 2018. Initially, the Herfindahl index was used to estimate crop diversity in different periods, and next, the Hodrick-Prescott filter was applied to estimate income risk both in nominal and real terms. Finally, using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the long-term impact of crop diversity on two modes of risk for the farmer's income has been estimated. Given the long-term pattern’s results, it is evident that in the long-run, crop diversity can reduce income fluctuations in two nominal and real terms. Moreover, results showed that in case the fluctuation shock affects the agricultural income in the short run, to balance out the shock in nominal and real terms, 4 and 3 cycles are needed respectively. In other words, in each cycle, 25% and 33% of the shock impact can be removed, respectively. Thus, as the results of the error correction coefficient showed, policies need to be put in place to prevent income shocks. In case of a shock, they need to be balanced out in a four-year period, taking inflation into account, and in a three-year period irrespective of the inflation and reparative policies such as insurance services should be developed.

Keywords: risk, long-term model, Herfindahl index, time series model, vector error correction model

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Authors: Alev Atak

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In this paper, we aim to create a financial sentiment index by investigating the company’s voluntary information disclosures. We retrieve structured content from BIST 100 companies’ financial reports for the period 1998-2018 and extract relevant financial information for sentiment analysis through Natural Language Processing. We measure strategy-related disclosures and their cross-sectional variation and classify report content into generic sections using synonym lists divided into four main categories according to their liquidity risk profile, risk positions, intra-annual information, and exposure to risk. We use Word Error Rate and Cosin Similarity for comparing and measuring text similarity and derivation in sets of texts. In addition to performing text extraction, we will provide a range of text analysis options, such as the readability metrics, word counts using pre-determined lists (e.g., forward-looking, uncertainty, tone, etc.), and comparison with reference corpus (word, parts of speech and semantic level). Therefore, we create an adequate analytical tool and a financial dictionary to depict the importance of granular financial disclosure for investors to identify correctly the risk-taking behavior and hence make the aggregated effects traceable.

Keywords: financial sentiment, machine learning, information disclosure, risk

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Authors: Fatima Mehmood, Khalid Farooq

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After the Mangla dam raising in 2010, the maximum reservoir impoundment level of 378.5 m SPD (Survey of Pakistan Datum) was achieved in September 2014. The reservoir drawdown was started on September 29, 2014 and a landslide occurred on Mirpur-Kotli Road near Khaliqabad on November 27, 2014. This landslide took place due to the failure of a slope along the reservoir rim. This study was undertaken to investigate the causative factors of Khaliqabad landslide. Site visits were carried out for recording the field observations and collection of the soil samples. The soil was subjected to different laboratory tests for the determination of index and engineering properties. The shear strength tests were performed at various levels of density and degrees of saturation. These soil parameters were used in an integrated SEEP-SLOPE/W analysis to obtain the drop in factor of safety with time and reservoir drawdown. The results showed the factor of safety dropped from 1.28 to 0.85 over a period of 60 days. The ultimate reduction in the shear strength of soil due to saturation with the simultaneous removal of the stabilizing effect of reservoir caused the disturbing forces to increase, and thus failure happened. The findings of this study can serve as a guideline for the modeling of the slopes experiencing rapid drawdown scenario with the consideration of more realistic distribution of soil moisture/ properties across the slope

Keywords: geotechnical investigation, landslide, reservoir drawdown, shear strength, slope stability

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Authors: Budhvin T. Withana, Sulochana Rupasinghe

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The problem of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, two learning disabilities that affect reading and writing abilities, respectively, is a major concern for the educational system. Due to the complexity and uniqueness of the Sinhala language, these conditions are especially difficult for children who speak it. The traditional risk detection methods for Dyslexia and Dysgraphia frequently rely on subjective assessments, making it difficult to cover a wide range of risk detection and time-consuming. As a result, diagnoses may be delayed and opportunities for early intervention may be lost. The project was approached by developing a hybrid model that utilized various deep learning techniques for detecting risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia. Specifically, Resnet50, VGG16 and YOLOv8 were integrated to detect the handwriting issues, and their outputs were fed into an MLP model along with several other input data. The hyperparameters of the MLP model were fine-tuned using Grid Search CV, which allowed for the optimal values to be identified for the model. This approach proved to be effective in accurately predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, providing a valuable tool for early detection and intervention of these conditions. The Resnet50 model achieved an accuracy of 0.9804 on the training data and 0.9653 on the validation data. The VGG16 model achieved an accuracy of 0.9991 on the training data and 0.9891 on the validation data. The MLP model achieved an impressive training accuracy of 0.99918 and a testing accuracy of 0.99223, with a loss of 0.01371. These results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid model achieved a high level of accuracy in predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia.

Keywords: neural networks, risk detection system, Dyslexia, Dysgraphia, deep learning, learning disabilities, data science

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Authors: C. Brandt, R. Christopher, N. Damons

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Background: Soccer is one of the most common sports in the world. It is associated with a significant chance of injury either during training or during the course of an actual match. Studies on the epidemiology of soccer injuries have been widely conducted, but methodological appraisal is lacking to make evidence-based decisions. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to conduct a systematic review of common injuries in soccer and their risk factors. Methods: A systematic review was performed based on the Joanna Briggs Institute procedure for conducting systematic reviews. Databases such as SPORT Discus, Cinahl, Medline, Science Direct, PubMed, and grey literature were searched. The quality of selected studies was rated, and data extracted and tabulated. Plot data analysis was done, and incidence rates and odds ratios were calculated, with their respective 95% confidence intervals. I² statistic was used to determine the proportion of variation across studies. Results: The search yielded 62 studies, of which 21 were screened for inclusion. A total of 16 studies were included for the analysis, ten for qualitative and six for quantitative analysis. The included studies had, on average, a low risk of bias and good methodological quality. The heterogeneity amongst the pooled studies was, however, statistically significant (χ²-p value < 0.001). The pooled results indicated a high incidence of soccer injuries at an incidence rate of 6.83 per 1000 hours of play. The pooled results also showed significant evidence of risk factors and the likelihood of injury occurrence in relation to these risk factors (OR=1.12 95% CI 1.07; 1.17). Conclusion: Although multiple studies are available on the epidemiology of soccer injuries and risk factors, only a limited number of studies were of sound methodology to be included in a review. There was also significant heterogeneity amongst the studies. The incidence rate of common soccer injuries was found to be 6.83 per 1000 hours of play. This incidence rate is lower than the values reported by the majority of previous studies on the occurrence of common soccer injuries. The types of common soccer injuries found by this review support the soccer injuries pattern reported in existing literature as muscle strain and ligament sprain of varying severity, especially in the lower limbs. The risk factors that emerged from this systematic review are predominantly intrinsic risk factors. The risk factors increase the risk of traumatic and overuse injuries of the lower extremities such as hamstrings and groin strains, knee and ankle sprains, and contusion.

Keywords: incidence, prevalence, risk factors, soccer injuries

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Authors: Dib Imane, Chettah Wahid, Khedidja Abdelhamid

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The plain of Gadaïne - Ain Yaghout, located in the wilaya of Batna (Eastern Algeria), experiences intensive human activities, particularly in agricultural practices which are accompanied by an increasing use of chemical fertilizers and manure. These activities lead to a degradation of the quality of water resources. In order to protect the quality of groundwater in this plain and formulate effective strategies to mitigate or avoid any contamination of groundwater, a risk assessment using the European method known as “COSTE Action 620” was applied to the mio-. plio-quaternary aquifer of this plain. Risk assessment requires the identification of existing dangers and their potential impact on groundwater by using a system of evaluation and weighting. In addition, it also requires the integration of the hydrogeological factors that influence the movement of contaminants by means of the intrinsic vulnerability maps of groundwater, which were produced according to the modified DRASTIC method. The overall danger on the plain ranges from very low to high. Farms containing stables, houses detached from the public sewer system, and sometimes manure piles were assigned a weighting factor expressing the highest degree of harmfulness; this created a medium to high danger index. Large areas for agricultural practice and grazing are characterized, successively, by low to very low danger. Therefore, the risks present at the study site are classified according to a range from medium to very high-risk intensity. These classes successively represent 3%, 49%, and 0.2% of the surface of the plain. Cultivated land and farms present a high to very high level of risk successively. In addition, with the exception of the salt mine, which presents a very high level of risk, the gas stations and cemeteries, as well as the railway line, represent a high level of risk.

Keywords: semi-arid, quality of water resources, risk assessment, vulnerability, contaminants

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Authors: In Kyong Yi, Yun Jeong Chae, Jihoon Hwang, Sook-Young Lee, Jong-Yeop Kim

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Background: Pentax airway scope (AWS) is a recently developed video laryngoscope for use in both normal and difficult airways, providing a good laryngeal view. The purpose of this randomized noninferior study was to evaluate the efficacy of the Pentax-AWS regarding intubation time, laryngeal view and ease of intubation in pediatric patients with normal airway, compared to Macintosh laryngoscope. Method: A total of 136 pediatric patients aged 1 to 10 with American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status I or II undergoing general anesthesia required orotracheal intubation were randomly allocated into two groups: Macintosh laryngoscope (n =68) and Pentax AWS (n=68). Anesthesia was induced with propofol, rocuronium, and sevoflurane. The primary outcome was intubation time. Cormack-Lehane laryngeal view grade, application of optimal laryngeal external manipulation (OELM), intubation difficulty scale (IDS), intubation failure rate and adverse events were also measured. Result: No significant difference was observed between the two groups regarding intubation time (Macintosh; 23[22-26] sec vs. Pentax; 23.5[22-27.75] sec, p=0.713). As for the laryngeal view grade, the Pentax group showed less number of grade 2a or higher grade cases compared to the Macintosh group (1/2a/2b/3; 52.9%/41.2%/4.4%/1.5% vs. 98.5%/1.5%/0%/0%, p=0.000). No optimal laryngeal external manipulation application was required in the Pentax group (38.2% vs. 0%, p=0.000). Intubation difficulty scale resulted in lower values for Pentax group (0 [0-2] vs. 0 [0-0.55], p=0.001). Failure rate was not different between the two groups (1.5% vs. 4.4%, p=0.619). Adverse event-wise, slightly higher incidence of bleeding (1.5% vs. 5.9%, p=0.172) and teeth injury (0% vs. 5.9%, p=0.042) occurred in the Pentax group. Conclusion: In conclusion, Pentax-AWS provided better laryngeal view, similar intubation time and similar success rate compared with Macintosh laryngoscope in children with normal airway. However, the risk of teeth injury might increase and warrant special attention.

Keywords: Pentax-AWS, pediatric, video laryngoscope, intubation

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Authors: R. H. Fattepur, Sameer R. Fattepur, D. K. Sreekantha

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Dairy Farming is one of the key industries in India. India is the leading producer and also the consumer of milk, milk-based products in the world. In this paper, we have attempted to the replace the human expert system and to develop an artificial expert system prototype to increase the speed and accuracy of decision making dairy farming credit risk evaluation. Fuzzy logic is used for dealing with uncertainty, vague and acquired knowledge, fuzzy rule base method is used for representing this knowledge for building an effective expert system.

Keywords: expert system, fuzzy logic, knowledge base, dairy farming, credit risk

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Authors: C. Deangeli, P. Obentaku Obenebot, O. Omwanghe

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The study focuses on the analysis of wellbore instability in rock masses affected by weakness planes. The occurrence of failure in such a type of rocks can occur in the rock matrix and/ or along the weakness planes, in relation to the mud weight gradient. In this case the simple Kirsch solution coupled with a failure criterion cannot supply a suitable scenario for borehole instabilities. Two different numerical approaches have been used in order to investigate the onset of local failure at the wall of a borehole. For each type of approach the influence of the inclination of weakness planes has been investigates, by considering joint sets at 0°, 35° and 90° to the horizontal. The first set of models have been carried out with FLAC 2D (Fast Lagrangian Analysis of Continua) by considering the rock material as a continuous medium, with a Mohr Coulomb criterion for the rock matrix and using the ubiquitous joint model for accounting for the presence of the weakness planes. In this model yield may occur in either the solid or along the weak plane, or both, depending on the stress state, the orientation of the weak plane and the material properties of the solid and weak plane. The second set of models have been performed with PFC2D (Particle Flow code). This code is based on the Discrete Element Method and considers the rock material as an assembly of grains bonded by cement-like materials, and pore spaces. The presence of weakness planes is simulated by the degradation of the bonds between grains along given directions. In general the results of the two approaches are in agreement. However the discrete approach seems to capture more complex phenomena related to local failure in the form of grain detachment at wall of the borehole. In fact the presence of weakness planes in the discontinuous medium leads to local instability along the weak planes also in conditions not predicted from the continuous solution. In general slip failure locations and directions do not follow the conventional wellbore breakout direction but depend upon the internal friction angle and the orientation of the bedding planes. When weakness plane is at 0° and 90° the behaviour are similar to that of a continuous rock material, but borehole instability is more severe when weakness planes are inclined at an angle between 0° and 90° to the horizontal. In conclusion, the results of the numerical simulations show that the prediction of local failure at the wall of the wellbore cannot disregard the presence of weakness planes and consequently the higher mud weight required for stability for any specific inclination of the joints. Despite the discrete approach can simulate smaller areas because of the large number of particles required for the generation of the rock material, however it seems to investigate more correctly the occurrence of failure at the miscroscale and eventually the propagation of the failed zone to a large portion of rock around the wellbore.

Keywords: continuous- discontinuous, numerical modelling, weakness planes wellbore, FLAC 2D

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Authors: Etienne Sugewe

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Purpose: The establishment of a positive HIV serologic status of an individual could have been an inhibitory factor to prevent risk behaviours in people living with HIV/AIDS. We conducted a cross-sectional study in order to assess the prevalence and predictors of risk behaviors among HIV-positive people in Douala-Cameroon. Methods: We used pre-checked questionnaires to systematically collect data from four HIV treatment centers in Douala. This was done to some of them during the distribution of drugs and to others during their classical rendezvous between the months of May and July 2012. The Chi-Square and Student t-test were used for cross tabulation of variables; multiple regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of risky sexual behaviours. Results: Of the 330 persons interviewed, sixty percent were reported to have had sexual intercourse after the diagnosis of HIV. We obtained 37% HIV-positive partners, and 63% had HIV- negative partners or partners with unknown status. Among our patients, 45% of the subjects with regular partners reported to have had anal or vaginal sex. Those whose score on the knowledge about HIV/AIDS was < 50% and where 90% of them were less susceptible to the condom during intercourse (p: 0.01). About 74% of patients on ARV were less susceptible to the use of condoms during sexual intercourse (p: 0.03). Conclusion: Risk sexual behaviours among people living with HIV/AIDS are common and potentially expose their partners. For HIV-positive partners, these habits pose a real risk of suprainfection by other strains of HIV. The need to increase awareness and education among people living with HIV is therefore highly recommended.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, behaviours, HIV positive, Douala, 2012

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Authors: Souhir Chelly, Asma Ben Cheikh, Hela Ghali, Salwa Khefacha, Lamine Dhidah, Mohamed Ben Rejeb, Houyem Said Latiri

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The hospital risk management department is firstly involved in the methodological analysis of grade zero sterilization incidents. The system is based on a subsequent analysis process in compliance with the ongoing requirements of the Haute Autorité de santé (HAS) for a reactive approach to risk, allowing to identify failures and start the appropriate preventive and corrective measures. The use of the association of litigation and risk management (ALARM) method makes easier the grade zero analysis and brings to light the team or institutional, organizational, temporal, individual factors representative of undesirable effects. Two main factors come out again from this analysis, pre-disinfection step of the emergency block unsupervised instrumentalist intern was poorly done since she did not remove the battery from micro air motor. At the sterilization unit, the worker who was not supervised by the nurse did the conditioning of the motor without having checked it if it still contained the battery. The main cause is that the management of human resources was inadequate at both levels, the instrumental trainee in the block who was not supervised by his supervisor and the worker of the sterilization unit who was not supervised by the responsible nurse. There is a lack of research help, advice, and collaboration. The difficulties encountered during this type of analysis are multiple. The first is based on its necessary acceptance by the various actors of care involved, which should not perceive it as a tool leading to individual punishment, but rather as a means to improve their practices.

Keywords: ALARM (Association of Litigation and Risk Management Method), incident, risk management, sterilization

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Authors: Cai Qianyi

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In the midst of global digital revolution, the flow of data poses security threats that call China's existing legislative framework for protecting personal information into question. As a preliminary procedure for risk analysis and prevention, the risk assessment of personal data transmission lacks detailed guidelines for support. Existing provisions reveal unclear responsibilities for network operators and weakened rights for data subjects. Furthermore, the regulatory system's weak operability and a lack of industry self-regulation heighten data transmission hazards. This paper aims to compare the regulatory pathways for data information transmission risks between China and Europe from a legal framework and content perspective. It draws on the “Data Protection Impact Assessment Guidelines” to empower multiple stakeholders, including data processors, controllers, and subjects, while also defining obligations. In conclusion, this paper intends to solve China's digital security shortcomings by developing a more mature regulatory framework and industry self-regulation mechanisms, resulting in a win-win situation for personal data protection and the development of the digital economy.

Keywords: personal information data transmission, risk assessment, DPIA, internet service provider, personal information data transimission, risk assessment

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Authors: Yang Yu, Jian Wang, Jiqiang Liu, Lei Han, Xudong He, Shaohua Lv

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As the increasing network attacks become more and more complex, network situation assessment based on log analysis cannot meet the requirements to ensure network security because of the low quality of logs and alerts. This paper addresses the lack of consideration of security attributes of hosts and attacks in the network. Identity and effectiveness of Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) are hard to be proved in risk assessment based on alerts and flow matching. This paper proposes a multi-dimension threat situation assessment method based on network security attributes. First, the paper offers an improved Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) calculation, which includes confident risk, integrity risk, availability risk and a weighted risk. Second, the paper introduces deterioration rate of properties collected by sensors in hosts and network, which aimed at assessing the time and level of DDoS attacks. Third, the paper introduces distribution of asset value in security attributes considering features of attacks and network, which aimed at assessing and show the whole situation. Experiments demonstrate that the approach reflects effectiveness and level of DDoS attacks, and the result can show the primary threat in network and security requirement of network. Through comparison and analysis, the method reflects more in security requirement and security risk situation than traditional methods based on alert and flow analyzing.

Keywords: DDoS evaluation, improved CVSS, network security attribute, threat situation assessment

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Authors: Herawanti Kumalasari, Raldi Hendro Koestoer, Hayati Sari Hasibuan

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Geographically, Indonesia is located in the arc of volcanoes that cause disaster prone one of them is landslide disaster. One of the causes of the landslide is the conversion of land from forest to agricultural land in upland areas and river border that has a steep slope. The study area is located in the highlands with fertile soil conditions, so most of the land is used as agricultural land and plantations. Land use transfer also occurs around the geothermal field in Pangalengan District, West Java Province which will threaten the sustainability of geothermal energy utilization and the safety of the community. The purpose of this research is to arrange the concept of spatial pattern arrangement in the geothermal area based on disaster mitigation. This research method using superimpose analysis. Superimpose analysis to know the basic physical condition of the planned area through the overlay of disaster risk map with the map of the plan of spatial plan pattern of Bandung Regency Spatial Plan. The results of the analysis will then be analyzed spatially. The results have shown that most of the study areas were at moderate risk level. Planning of spatial pattern of existing study area has not fully considering the spread of disaster risk that there are settlement area and the agricultural area which is in high landslide risk area. The concept of the arrangement of the spatial pattern of the study area will use zoning system which is divided into three zones namely core zone, buffer zone and development zone.

Keywords: spatial planning, geothermal, disaster risk, zoning

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Authors: Naser Kazemi Eilaki, Ilona Heldal, Carolyn Ahmer, Bjarne Christian Hagen

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Elderly people and people with disabilities are recognized as at-risk groups when it comes to egress and travel from hazard zone to a safe place. One's disability can negatively influence her or his escape time, and this becomes even more important when people from this target group live alone. While earlier studies have frequently addressed quantitative measurements regarding at-risk groups' physical characteristics (e.g., their speed of travel), this paper considers the influence of at-risk groups’ characteristics on their decision and determining better escape routes. Most of evacuation models are based on mapping people's movement and their behaviour to summation times for common activity types on a timeline. Usually, timeline models estimate required safe egress time (RSET) as a sum of four timespans: detection, alarm, premovement, and movement time, and compare this with the available safe egress time (ASET) to determine what is influencing the margin of safety.This paper presents a cross-sectional study for identifying the most critical items on RSET and people's decision-making and with possibilities to include safety knowledge regarding people with physical or cognitive functional impairments. The result will contribute to increased knowledge on considering at-risk groups and disabilities for designing and developing safe escape routes. The expected results can be an asset to predict the probabilistic behavioural pattern of at-risk groups and necessary components for defining a framework for understanding how stakeholders can consider various disabilities when determining the margin of safety for a safe escape route.

Keywords: fire safety, evacuation, decision-making, at-risk groups

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Authors: A. A. Adebayo, O. Osibanjo

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Informal electronic waste (e-waste) processing is a crude method of recycling, which is on the increase in Nigeria. The release of hazardous substances such as heavy metals (HMs) into the environment during informal e-waste processing has been a major concern. However, there is insufficient information on environmental contamination from e-waste recycling, associated ecological risk in Alaba International Market, a major electronic market in Lagos, Nigeria. The aims of this study were to determine the levels of HMs in soil, resulting from the e-waste recycling; and also assess associated ecological risks in Alaba international market. Samples of soils (334) were randomly collected seasonally for three years from fourteen selected e-waste activity points and two control sites. The samples were digested using standard methods and HMs analysed by inductive coupled plasma optical emission. Ecological risk was estimated using Ecological Risk index (ER), Potential Ecological Risk index (RI), Index of geoaccumulation (Igeo), Contamination factor (Cf) and degree of contamination factor (Cdeg). The concentrations range of HMs (mg/kg) in soil were: 16.7-11200.0 (Pb); 14.3-22600.0 (Cu); 1.90-6280.0 (Ni), 39.5-4570.0 (Zn); 0.79-12300.0 (Sn); 0.02-138.0 (Cd); 12.7-1710.0 (Ba); 0.18-131.0 (Cr); 0.07-28.0 (V), while As was below detection limit. Concentrations range in control soils were 1.36-9.70 (Pb), 2.06-7.60 (Cu), 1.25-5.11 (Ni), 3.62-15.9 (Zn), BDL-0.56 (Sn), BDL-0.01 (Cd), 14.6-47.6 (Ba), 0.21–12.2 (Cr) and 0.22-22.2 (V). The trend in ecological risk index was in the order Cu > Pb > Ni > Zn > Cr > Cd > Ba > V. The potential ecological risk index with respect to informal e-waste activities were: burning > dismantling > disposal > stockpiling. The index of geo accumulation indices revealed that soils were extremely polluted with Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn and Ni. The contamination factor indicated that 93% of the studied areas have very high contamination status for Pb, Cu, Ba, Sn and Co while Cr and Cd were in the moderately contaminated status. The degree of contamination decreased in the order of Sn > Cu > Pb >> Zn > Ba > Co > Ni > V > Cr > Cd. Heavy metal contamination of Alaba international market environment resulting from informal e-waste processing was established. Proper management of e-waste and remediation of the market environment are recommended to minimize the ecological risks.

Keywords: Alaba international market, ecological risk, electronic waste, heavy metal contamination

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Authors: Mohammad Karimizadehardakani, Hooman Minoonejad, Reza Rajabi, Ali Sharifnejad

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Background: Ankle sprain is one of the most important risk factor of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. Also, functional ankle instability (FAI) population has alterations in lower extremity sagittal plane biomechanics during landing task. We want to examine whether biomechanical alterations demonstrated by FAI patients are associated with the mechanism of ACL injury during high risk and sport related tasks. Methods: Sixteen basketball player with FAI and 16 non-injured control performed a single-leg cross drop landing. Knee sagittal and frontal (ATSF) was calculated. Independent t-tests, multiple linear regression, and Pearson correlation were used for analysis data. Result: Subject with FAI showed more peak ATFS, posterior ground reaction force (GRF) and less knee flexion, compared to the controls (P= 0.001, P= 0.004, P= 0.011). Knee flexion (r= −0.824, P = 0.011) and posterior GRF (r= 0.901, P = .001) were correlated with ATSF; Posterior GRF was factor that most explained the variance in ATSF (R2= 0.645; P = .001) in the FAI group. Conclusions: Result of our study showed there is a potential biomechanical relationship between the presence of FAI and risk factors associated with ACL injury mechanism.

Keywords: functional ankle instability, anterior cruciate ligament, biomechanics, risk factor

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Authors: Abdelghani Leghouchi

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This study aims to predict the consequences associated with the propagation of the flood wave that may occur after the failure of the Taksebt dam and suggest an efficient emergency action plan (EAP) for mitigation purposes. To achieve the objectives of this study, the hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS 2D was used for the flood routing of the dam break wave, which gave an estimate of the hydraulic characteristics downstream the Taksebt dam. Geospatial analysis of the simulation results conducted in a Geographic information system (GIS) environment showed that many residential areas are considered to be in danger in case of the Taksebt dam break event. Based on the obtained results, an emergency actions plan was suggested to moderate the causalities in the downstream area at risk. Overall, the present study showed that the integration of 2D hydraulic modeling and GIS provides great capabilities in providing realistic view of the dam break wave propagation that enhances assessing the associated risks and proposing appropriate mitigation measures.

Keywords: taksebt dam, dam break, wave propagation time, HEC-RAS 2D

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