Search results for: meteorological prediction data

Authors: Mohamed El Horri, Amine Mouden, Reda Messaoudi, Mohamed Chekkal, Driss Benlaldj, Malika Baghdadi, Lahcene Benmahdi, Fatima Seghier

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Background/aim: Recently, the Von Willebrand factor antigen (vWF-Ag)has been identified as a new marker of portal hypertension (PH) and its complications. Few studies talked about its role in the prediction of esophageal varices. VWF-Ag is considered a non-invasive approach, In order to avoid the endoscopic burden, cost, drawbacks, unpleasant and repeated examinations to the patients. In our study, we aimed to evaluate the ability of this marker in the prediction of another complication of portal hypertension, which is portal hypertensive gastropathy (PHG), the one that is diagnosed also by endoscopic tools. Patients and methods: It is about a prospective study, which include 124 cirrhotic patients with no history of bleeding who underwent screening endoscopy for PH-related complications like esophageal varices (EVs) and PHG. Routine biological tests were performed as well as the VWF-Ag testing by both ELFA and Immunoturbidimetric techniques. The diagnostic performance of our marker was assessed using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, accuracy, and receiver operating characteristic curves. Results: 124 patients were enrolled in this study, with a mean age of 58 years [CI: 55 – 60 years] and a sex ratio of 1.17. Viral etiologies were found in 50% of patients. Screening endoscopy revealed the presence of PHG in 20.2% of cases, while for EVsthey were found in 83.1% of cases. VWF-Ag levels, were significantly increased in patients with PHG compared to those who have not: 441% [CI: 375 – 506], versus 279% [CI: 253 – 304], respectively (p <0.0001). Using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), vWF-Ag was a good predictor for the presence of PHG. With a value higher than 320% and an AUC of 0.824, VWF-Ag had an 84% sensitivity, 74% specificity, 44.7% positive predictive value, 94.8% negative predictive value, and 75.8% diagnostic accuracy. Conclusion: VWF-Ag is a good non-invasive low coast marker for excluding the presence of PHG in patients with liver cirrhosis. Using this marker as part of a selective screening strategy might reduce the need for endoscopic screening and the coast of the management of these kinds of patients.

Keywords: von willebrand factor, portal hypertensive gastropathy, prediction, liver cirrhosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Sungzoon Cho, Hye Jin Lee, Sungwhan Jeon, Dongyoung Min, Sungwon Lyu

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Major public corporations worldwide use conference calls to report their quarterly earnings. These 'earnings' conference calls allow for questions from stock analysts. We investigated if it is possible to identify sentiment from the call script and use it to predict stock price movement. We analyzed call scripts from six companies, two each from Korea, China and Indonesia during six years 2011Q1 – 2017Q2. Random forest with Frequency-based sentiment scores using Loughran MacDonald Dictionary did better than control model with only financial indicators. When the stock prices went up 20 days from earnings release, our model predicted correctly 77% of time. When the model predicted 'up,' actual stock prices went up 65% of time. This preliminary result encourages us to investigate advanced sentiment scoring methodologies such as topic modeling, auto-encoder, and word2vec variants.

Keywords: earnings call script, random forest, sentiment analysis, stock price prediction

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Authors: Saba Gachpaz, Hamid Reza Heidari

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The sharp increase in population growth leads to more pressure on agricultural areas to satisfy the food supply. To achieve this, more resources should be consumed and, besides other environmental concerns, highlight sustainable agricultural development. Land-use management is a crucial factor in obtaining optimum productivity. Machine learning is a widely used technique in the agricultural sector, from yield prediction to customer behavior. This method focuses on learning and provides patterns and correlations from our data set. In this study, nine physical control factors, namely, soil classification, electrical conductivity, normalized difference water index (NDWI), groundwater level, elevation, annual precipitation, pH of water, annual mean temperature, and slope in the alluvial plain in Khuzestan (an agricultural hotspot in Iran) are used to decide the best agricultural land use for both rainfed and irrigated agriculture for ten different crops. For this purpose, each variable was imported into Arc GIS, and a raster layer was obtained. In the next level, by using training samples, all layers were imported into the python environment. A random forest model was applied, and the weight of each variable was specified. In the final step, results were visualized using a digital elevation model, and the importance of all factors for each one of the crops was obtained. Our results show that despite 62% of the study area being allocated to agricultural purposes, only 42.9% of these areas can be defined as a suitable class for cultivation purposes.

Keywords: land suitability, machine learning, random forest, sustainable agriculture

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Authors: Andrzej Wałęga, Marta Cebulska, Agnieszka Ziernicka-Wojtaszek, Wojciech Młocek, Agnieszka Wałęga, Tommaso Caloiero

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Drought is one of the natural phenomena influencing many aspects of human activities like food production, agriculture, industry, and the ecological conditions of the environment. In the area of the Polish Carpathians, there are periods with a deficit of rainwater and an increasing frequency in dry months, especially in the cold half of the year. The aim of this work is a spatial and temporal analysis of drought, expressed as SPI in a heterogenous area of the Polish Carpathian and of the highland Region in the Central part of Europe based on long-term precipitation data. Also, to our best knowledge, for the first time in this work, drought characteristics analyzed via the SPI were discussed based on the atmospheric circulation calendar. The study region is the Upper Vistula Basin, located in the southern and south-eastern part of Poland. In this work, monthly precipitation from 56 rainfall stations was analysed from 1961 to 2022. The 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were used as indicators of meteorological drought. For the 3-month SPI, the main climatic mechanisms determining extreme droughts were defined based on the calendar of synoptic circulations. The Mann-Kendall test was used to detect the trend of extreme droughts. Statistically significant trends of SPI were observed on 52.7% of all analyzed stations, and in most cases, a positive trend was observed. Statistically significant trends were more frequently observed in stations located in the western part of the analyzed region. Long-term droughts, represented by the 12-month SPI, occurred in all stations but not in all years. Short-term droughts (3-month SPI) were most frequent in the winter season, 6 and 9-month SPI in winter and spring, and 12-month SPI in winter and autumn, respectively. The spatial distribution of drought was highly diverse. The most intensive drought occurred in 1984, with the 6-month SPI covering 98% of the analyzed region and the 9 and 12-month SPI covering 90% of the entire region. Droughts exhibit a seasonal pattern, with a dominant 10-year periodicity for all analyzed variants of SPI. Additionally, Fourier analysis revealed a 2-year periodicity for the 3-, 6-, and 9-month SPI and a 31-year periodicity for the 12-month SPI. The results provide insights into the typical climatic conditions in Poland, with strong seasonality in precipitation. The study highlighted that short-term extreme droughts, represented by the 3-month SPI, are often caused by anticyclonic situations with high-pressure wedges Ka and Wa, and anticyclonic West as observed in 52.3% of cases. These findings are crucial for understanding the spatial and temporal variability of short and long-term extreme droughts in Central Europe, particularly for the agriculture sector dominant in the northern part of the analyzed region, where drought frequency is highest.

Keywords: atmospheric circulation, drought, precipitation, SPI, the Upper Vistula Basin

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Authors: Sandeep Sharma, Sarabjit Singh

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As per the user demand and growth trends of large free data the storage solutions are now becoming more challenge-able to protect, store and to retrieve data. The days are not so far when the storage companies and organizations are start saying 'no' to store our valuable data or they will start charging a huge amount for its storage and protection. On the other hand as per the environmental conditions it becomes challenge-able to maintain and establish new data warehouses and data centers to protect global warming threats. A challenge of small data is over now, the challenges are big that how to manage the exponential growth of data. In this paper we have analyzed the growth trend of big data and its future implications. We have also focused on the impact of the unstructured data on various concerns and we have also suggested some possible remedies to streamline big data.

Keywords: big data, unstructured data, volume, variety, velocity

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Authors: William Anderson, Kyle Kobold, Oleg Yakimenko

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Green microgrids using mostly renewable energy (RE) for generation, are complex systems with inherent nonlinear dynamics. Among a variety of different optimization tools there are only a few ones that adequately consider this complexity. This paper evaluates applicability of two somewhat similar optimization tools tailored for standalone RE microgrids and also assesses a machine learning tool for performance prediction that can enhance the reliability of any chosen optimization tool. It shows that one of these microgrid optimization tools has certain advantages over another and presents a detailed routine of preparing input data to simulate RE microgrid behavior. The paper also shows how neural-network-based predictive modeling can be used to validate and forecast solar power generation based on weather time series data, which improves the overall quality of standalone RE microgrid analysis.

Keywords: microgrid, renewable energy, complex systems, optimization, predictive modeling, neural networks

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Authors: Shenlun Chen, Leonard Wee

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Tumor grading is an essential reference for colorectal cancer (CRC) staging and survival prognostication. The widely used World Health Organization (WHO) grading system defines histological grade of CRC adenocarcinoma based on the density of glandular formation on whole slide images (WSI). Tumors are classified as well-, moderately-, poorly- or un-differentiated depending on the percentage of the tumor that is gland forming; >95%, 50-95%, 5-50% and <5%, respectively. However, manually grading WSIs is a time-consuming process and can cause observer error due to subjective judgment and unnoticed regions. Furthermore, pathologists’ grading is usually coarse while a finer and continuous differentiation grade may help to stratifying CRC patients better. In this study, a deep learning based automatic differentiation grading algorithm was developed and evaluated by survival analysis. Firstly, a gland segmentation model was developed for segmenting gland structures. Gland regions of WSIs were delineated and used for differentiation annotating. Tumor regions were annotated by experienced pathologists into high-, medium-, low-differentiation and normal tissue, which correspond to tumor with clear-, unclear-, no-gland structure and non-tumor, respectively. Then a differentiation prediction model was developed on these human annotations. Finally, all enrolled WSIs were processed by gland segmentation model and differentiation prediction model. The differentiation grade can be calculated by deep learning models’ prediction of tumor regions and tumor differentiation status according to WHO’s defines. If multiple WSIs were possessed by a patient, the highest differentiation grade was chosen. Additionally, the differentiation grade was normalized into scale between 0 to 1. The Cancer Genome Atlas, project COAD (TCGA-COAD) project was enrolled into this study. For the gland segmentation model, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) reached 0.981 and accuracy reached 0.932 in validation set. For the differentiation prediction model, ROC reached 0.983, 0.963, 0.963, 0.981 and accuracy reached 0.880, 0.923, 0.668, 0.881 for groups of low-, medium-, high-differentiation and normal tissue in validation set. Four hundred and one patients were selected after removing WSIs without gland regions and patients without follow up data. The concordance index reached to 0.609. Optimized cut off point of 51% was found by “Maxstat” method which was almost the same as WHO system’s cut off point of 50%. Both WHO system’s cut off point and optimized cut off point performed impressively in Kaplan-Meier curves and both p value of logrank test were below 0.005. In this study, gland structure of WSIs and differentiation status of tumor regions were proven to be predictable through deep leaning method. A finer and continuous differentiation grade can also be automatically calculated through above models. The differentiation grade was proven to stratify CAC patients well in survival analysis, whose optimized cut off point was almost the same as WHO tumor grading system. The tool of automatically calculating differentiation grade may show potential in field of therapy decision making and personalized treatment.

Keywords: colorectal cancer, differentiation, survival analysis, tumor grading

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Authors: Jossitt Williams Vargas Cruz, Aura Jazmín Pérez Ríos

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The variations of solar dynamics have become a relevant topic of study due to the effects of climate changes generated on the earth. One of the most disconcerting aspects is the variability that the sun has on the climate is the role played by sunspots (extra-atmospheric variable) in the modulation of the Cosmic Rays CR (extra-atmospheric variable). CRs influence the earth's climate by affecting cloud formation (atmospheric variable), and solar cycle influence is associated with the presence of solar storms, and the magnetic activity is greater, resulting in less CR entering the earth's atmosphere. The different methods of climate prediction in Colombia do not take into account the extra-atmospheric variables. Therefore, correlations between atmospheric and extra-atmospheric variables were studied in order to implement a Python code based on neural networks to make the prediction of the extra-atmospheric variable with the highest correlation.

Keywords: correlations, cosmic rays, sun, sunspots and variations.

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Authors: Sandra Mitrovic, Gaurav Singh

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In many industries, including telecommunications, churn prediction has been a topic of active research. A lot of attention has been drawn on devising the most informative features, and this area of research has gained even more focus with spread of (social) network analytics. The call detail records (CDRs) have been used to construct customer networks and extract potentially useful features. However, to the best of our knowledge, no studies including network features have yet proposed a generic way of representing network information. Instead, ad-hoc and dataset dependent solutions have been suggested. In this work, we build upon a recently presented method (node2vec) to obtain representations for nodes in observed network. The proposed approach is generic and applicable to any network and domain. Unlike node2vec, which assumes a static network, we consider a dynamic and time-evolving network. To account for this, we propose an approach that constructs the feature representation of each node by generating its node2vec representations at different timestamps, concatenating them and finally compressing using an auto-encoder-like method in order to retain reasonably long and informative feature vectors. We test the proposed method on churn prediction task in telco domain. To predict churners at timestamp ts+1, we construct training and testing datasets consisting of feature vectors from time intervals [t1, ts-1] and [t2, ts] respectively, and use traditional supervised classification models like SVM and Logistic Regression. Observed results show the effectiveness of proposed approach as compared to ad-hoc feature selection based approaches and static node2vec.

Keywords: churn prediction, dynamic networks, node2vec, auto-encoders

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Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

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The main objective of this study is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in forecasting ground-motion intensity measures given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition. Intensity measures such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Estimating these variables for future earthquake events is a key step in seismic hazard assessment and potentially subsequent risk assessment of different types of structures. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as a statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The algorithms are adjusted to quantify event-to-event and site-to-site variability of the ground motions by implementing them as random effects in the proposed models to reduce the aleatory uncertainty. All the algorithms are trained using a selected database of 4,528 ground-motions, including 376 seismic events with magnitude 3 to 5.8, recorded over the hypocentral distance range of 4 to 500 km in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas since 2005. The main reason of the considered database stems from the recent increase in the seismicity rate of these states attributed to petroleum production and wastewater disposal activities, which necessities further investigation in the ground motion models developed for these states. Accuracy of the models in predicting intensity measures, generalization capability of the models for future data, as well as usability of the models are discussed in the evaluation process. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available.

Keywords: artificial neural network, ground-motion models, machine learning, random forest, support vector machine

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Authors: Warda Khan, Remo Lachmann, Adarsh S. Garakahally

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The increasing complexity of software and its applicability in a wide range of industries, e.g., automotive, call for enhanced quality assurance techniques. Test automation is one option to tackle the prevailing challenges by supporting test engineers with fast, parallel, and repetitive test executions. A high degree of test automation allows for a shift from mundane (manual) testing tasks to a more analytical assessment of the software under test. However, a high initial investment of test resources is required to establish test automation, which is, in most cases, a limitation to the time constraints provided for quality assurance of complex software systems. Hence, a computer-aided creation of automated test cases is crucial to increase the benefit of test automation. This paper proposes the application of machine learning for the generation of automated test cases. It is based on supervised learning to analyze test specifications and existing test implementations. The analysis facilitates the identification of patterns between test steps and their implementation with test automation components. For the test case generation, this approach exploits historical data of test automation projects. The identified patterns are the foundation to predict the implementation of unknown test case specifications. Based on this support, a test engineer solely has to review and parameterize the test automation components instead of writing them manually, resulting in a significant time reduction for establishing test automation. Compared to other generation approaches, this ML-based solution can handle different writing styles, authors, application domains, and even languages. Furthermore, test automation tools require expert knowledge by means of programming skills, whereas this approach only requires historical data to generate test cases. The proposed solution is evaluated using various multi-label evaluation criteria (EC) and two small-sized real-world systems. The most prominent EC is ‘Subset Accuracy’. The promising results show an accuracy of at least 86% for test cases, where a 1:1 relationship (Multi-Class) between test step specification and test automation component exists. For complex multi-label problems, i.e., one test step can be implemented by several components, the prediction accuracy is still at 60%. It is better than the current state-of-the-art results. It is expected the prediction quality to increase for larger systems with respective historical data. Consequently, this technique facilitates the time reduction for establishing test automation and is thereby independent of the application domain and project. As a work in progress, the next steps are to investigate incremental and active learning as additions to increase the usability of this approach, e.g., in case labelled historical data is scarce.

Keywords: machine learning, multi-class, multi-label, supervised learning, test automation

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Zerzouri Nora

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In this paper, author presented the generalities of a photovoltaic system study and simulation. Author inserted the DC-DC converter to raise the voltage level and improve the operation of the PV panel by continuing the operating point at maximum power by using the Perturb and Observe technique (P&O). The connection to the network is made by inserting a three-phase voltage inverter allowing synchronization with the network the inverter is controlled by a PWM control. The simulation results allow the author to visualize the operation of the different components of the system, as well as the behavior of the system during the variation of meteorological values.

Keywords: photovoltaic generator PV, boost converter, P&O MPPT, PWM inverter, three phase grid

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Authors: Kaoutar Abbahaddou, Mohammed Salah Chiadmi

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The need to find a relevant way to predict the next-day price of a stock index is a real concern for many financial stakeholders and researchers. We have known across years the proliferation of several methods. Nevertheless, among all these methods, the most controversial one is a machine learning algorithm that claims to be reliable, namely neural networks. Thus, the purpose of this article is to study the prediction power of neural networks in the particular case of Islamic finance as it is an under-looked area. In this article, we will first briefly present a review of the literature regarding neural networks and Islamic finance. Next, we present the architecture and principles of artificial neural networks most commonly used in finance. Then, we will show its empirical application on two Islamic stock indexes. The accuracy rate would be used to measure the performance of the algorithm in predicting the right price the next day. As a result, we can conclude that artificial neural networks are a reliable method to predict the next-day price for Islamic indices as it is claimed for conventional ones.

Keywords: Islamic finance, stock price prediction, artificial neural networks, machine learning

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Authors: Ognen Kostovski, Svetozar Antovic, Rubens Jovanovic, Irena Kostovska, Nikola Jankulovski

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Introduction:Colorectal carcinoma (CRC) is one of the most common malignancies in the world. The cancer stem cell (CSC) markers are associated with aggressive cancer types and poor prognosis. The aim of study was to determine whether the expression of colorectal cancer stem cell markers CD133 and CD44 could be significant in prediction of clinically aggressive form of CRC. Materials and methods: Our study included ninety patients (n=90) with CRC. Patients were divided into two subgroups: with metatstatic CRC and non-metastatic CRC. Tumor samples were analyzed with standard histopathological methods, than was performed immunohistochemical analysis with monoclonal antibodies against CD133 and CD44 stem cell markers. Results: High coexpression of CD133 and CD44 was observed in 71.4% of patients with metastatic disease, compared to 37.9% in patients without metastases. Discordant expression of both markers was found in 8% of the subgroup with metastatic CRC, and in 13.4% of the subgroup without metastatic CRC. Statistical analyses showed a significant association of increased expression of CD133 and CD44 with the disease stage, T - category and N - nodal status. With multiple regression analysis the stage of disease was designate as a factor with the greatest statistically significant influence on expression of CD133 (p <0.0001) and CD44 (p <0.0001). Conclusion: Our results suggest that the coexpression of CD133 and CD44 have an important role in prediction of clinically aggressive form of CRC. Both stem cell markers can be routinely implemented in standard pathohistological diagnostics and can be useful markers for pre-therapeutic oncology screening.

Keywords: colorectal carcinoma, stem cells, CD133+, CD44+

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Authors: Yang Bao, Shi Wei Deng, WangQun Lin

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This paper introduces the concept and principle of data cleaning, analyzes the types and causes of dirty data, and proposes several key steps of typical cleaning process, puts forward a well scalability and versatility data cleaning framework, in view of data with attribute dependency relation, designs several of violation data discovery algorithms by formal formula, which can obtain inconsistent data to all target columns with condition attribute dependent no matter data is structured (SQL) or unstructured (NoSQL), and gives 6 data cleaning methods based on these algorithms.

Keywords: data cleaning, dependency rules, violation data discovery, data repair

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Authors: Seyed Abbas Tabatabaei, Fereydoon Moghadas Nejad, Mohammad Saed

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The bleeding prediction of the asphalt is one of the most complex subjects in the pavement engineering. In this paper, an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is used for modeling the effect of important parameters on bleeding is trained and tested with the experimental results. bleeding index based on the asphalt film thickness differential as target parameter,asphalt content, temperature depth of two centemeter, heavy traffic, dust to effective binder, Marshall strength, passing 3/4 sieves, passing 3/8 sieves,passing 3/16 sieves, passing NO8, passing NO50, passing NO100, passing NO200 as input parameters. Then, we randomly divided empirical data into train and test sections in order to accomplish modeling. We instructed ANFIS network by 72 percent of empirical data. 28 percent of primary data which had been considered for testing the approprativity of the modeling were entered into ANFIS model. Results were compared by two statistical criterions (R2, RMSE) with empirical ones. Considering the results, it is obvious that our proposed modeling by ANFIS is efficient and valid and it can also be promoted to more general states.

Keywords: bleeding, asphalt film thickness differential, Anfis Modeling

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Authors: Wahab Ali, Oyebade K. Oyedotun, Adnan Khashman

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Breast cancer remains a threat to the woman’s world in view of survival rates, it early diagnosis and mortality statistics. So far, research has shown that many survivors of breast cancer cases are in the ones with early diagnosis. Breast cancer is usually categorized into stages which indicates its severity and corresponding survival rates for patients. Investigations show that the farther into the stages before diagnosis the lesser the chance of survival; hence the early diagnosis of breast cancer becomes imperative, and consequently the application of novel technologies to achieving this. Over the year, mammograms have used in the diagnosis of breast cancer, but the inconclusive deductions made from such scans lead to either false negative cases where cancer patients may be left untreated or false positive where unnecessary biopsies are carried out. This paper presents the application of artificial neural networks in the prediction of severity of breast tumour (whether benign or malignant) using mammography reports and other factors that are related to breast cancer.

Keywords: breast cancer, intelligent classification, neural networks, mammography

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Authors: Zohra Mhedhbi, Meheret Gaston, Sinda Haoues-Jouve, Julia Hidalgo, Pierre Mazzega

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In the current context of climate change, supporting national and local stakeholders to make climate-smart decisions is necessary but still underdeveloped in many countries. To overcome this problem, the Global Frameworks for Climate Services (GFCS), implemented under the aegis of the United Nations in 2012, has initiated many programs in different countries. The GFCS contributes to the development of Climate Services, an instrument based on the production and transfer of scientific climate knowledge for specific users such as citizens, urban planning actors, or agricultural professionals. As cities concentrate on economic, social and environmental issues that make them more vulnerable to climate change, the New Urban Agenda (NUA), adopted at Habitat III in October 2016, highlights the importance of paying particular attention to disaster risk management, climate and environmental sustainability and urban resilience. In order to support the implementation of the NUA, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has identified the urban dimension as one of its priorities and has proposed a new tool, the Integrated Urban Services (IUS), for more sustainable and resilient cities. In the southern countries, there’s a lack of development of climate services, which can be partially explained by problems related to their economic financing. In addition, it is often difficult to make climate change a priority in urban planning, given the more traditional urban challenges these countries face, such as massive poverty, high population growth, etc. Climate services and Integrated Urban Services, particularly in African cities, are expected to contribute to the sustainable development of cities. These tools will help promoting the acquisition of meteorological and socio-ecological data on their transformations, encouraging coordination between national or local institutions providing various sectoral urban services, and should contribute to the achievement of the objectives defined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) or the Paris Agreement, and the Sustainable Development Goals. To assess the state of the art on these various points, the Web of Science metadatabase is queried. With a query combining the keywords "climate*" and "urban*", more than 24,000 articles are identified, source of more than 40,000 distinct keywords (but including synonyms and acronyms) which finely mesh the conceptual field of research. The occurrence of one or more names of the 514 African cities of more than 100,000 inhabitants or countries, reduces this base to a smaller corpus of about 1410 articles (2990 keywords). 41 countries and 136 African cities are cited. The lexicometric analysis of the metadata of the articles and the analysis of the structural indicators (various centralities) of the networks induced by the co-occurrence of expressions related more specifically to climate services show the development potential of these services, identify the gaps which remain to be filled for their implementation and allow to compare the diversity of national and regional situations with regard to these services.

Keywords: African cities, climate change, climate services, integrated urban services, lexicometry, networks, urban planning, web of science

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Authors: Shreemoyee Sarkar, Vikhyat Chadha

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In this paper, the local fractal properties and chaotic properties of financial time series are investigated by calculating two exponents, the Local Hurst Exponent: LHE and Lyapunov Exponent in a moving time window of a financial series.y. For the purpose of this paper, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIJA) and S&P 500, two of the major indices of United States have been considered. The behaviour of the above-mentioned exponents prior to some major crashes (1998 and 2008 crashes in S&P 500 and 2002 and 2008 crashes in DIJA) is discussed. Also, the optimal length of the window for obtaining the best possible results is decided. Based on the outcomes of the above, an attempt is made to predict the crashes and accuracy of such an algorithm is decided.

Keywords: local hurst exponent, lyapunov exponent, market crash prediction, time series chaos, time series local fractal properties

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Authors: Ali Nadi, Ali Edrissi

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Relief demand and transportation links availability is the essential information that is needed for every natural disaster operation. This information is not in hand once a disaster strikes. Relief demand and network condition has been evaluated based on prediction method in related works. Nevertheless, prediction seems to be over or under estimated due to uncertainties and may lead to a failure operation. Therefore, in this paper a stochastic programming model is proposed to evaluate real-time relief demand and network condition at the onset of a natural disaster. To address the time sensitivity of the emergency response, the proposed model uses reinforcement learning for optimization of the total relief assessment time. The proposed model is tested on a real size network problem. The simulation results indicate that the proposed model performs well in the case of collecting real-time information.

Keywords: disaster management, real-time demand, reinforcement learning, relief demand

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Authors: Darren Zou

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Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: BART, Bayesian, predict, stock

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Authors: Shakhawan K. Mawlood, Catriona Pickard, Benjamin Pickard

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In summer 2015 the remains of 800 children are among 1,967 bodies were exhumed by archaeologists at St Peter's Burial Ground in Blackburn, Lancashire. One hundred samples from these 19th century ancient bones were selected for DNA analysis. These comprised samples biased for those which prior osteological evidence indicated a potential for microbial infection by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (causing tuberculosis, TB) or Treponema pallidum (causing Syphilis) species, as well a random selection of other bones for which visual inspection suggested good preservation (and, therefore, likely DNA retrieval).They were subject to polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays aimed at detecting traces of DNA from infecting mycobacteria, with the purpose both of confirming the palaeopathological diagnosis of tuberculosis and determining in individual cases whether disease and death was due to M. tuberculosis or other reasons. Our secondary goal was to determine sex determination and age prediction. The results demonstrated that extraction of vast majority ancient bones DNA samples succeeded.

Keywords: ancient bone, DNA, tuberculosis, age prediction

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Authors: S. Naveen, V. Sivasubramanian

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A modeling theory is proposed to consider the vaporization of LNG during its contact with water following its release from an underwater source. The spillage of LNG underwater can lead to a decrease in the surface temperature of water and subsequent freezing. This can in turn affect the heat flux distribution from the released LNG onto the water surrounding it. The available models predict the rate of vaporization considering the surface of contact as a solid wall, and considering the entire phenomena as a solid-liquid operation. This assumption greatly under-predicted the overall heat transfer on LNG water interface. The vaporization flux would first decrease during the film boiling, followed by an increase during the transition boiling and a steady decrease during the nucleate boiling. A superheat theory is introduced to enhance the accuracy in the prediction of the heat transfer between LNG and water. The work suggests that considering the superheat theory can greatly enhance the prediction of LNG vaporization on underwater releases and also help improve the study of overall thermodynamics.

Keywords: evaporation rate, heat transfer, LNG vaporization, underwater LNG release

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Authors: Tayeb Chihi, Messaoud Fatmi

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We present calculations of the structural, elastic and electronic properties of nonferrous Ti, Zr, and Hf pure metals in both parent and martensite phases in bcc and hcp structures respectively. They are based on the generalized gradient approximation (GGA) within the density functional theory (DFT). The shear modulus, Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio for Ti, Zr, and Hf metals have were calculated and compared with the corresponding experimental values. Using elastic constants obtained from calculations GGA, the bulk modulus along the crystallographic axes of single crystals was calculated. This is in good agreement with experiment for Ti and Zr, whereas the hcp structure for Hf is a prediction. At zero temperature and zero pressure, the bcc crystal structure is found to be mechanically unstable for Ti, Zr, and Hf. In our calculations the hcp structures is correctly found to be stable at the equilibrium volume. In the electronic density of states (DOS), the smaller n(EF) is, the more stable the compound is. Therefore, in agreement with the results obtained from the total energy minimum.

Keywords: Ti, Zr, Hf, pure metals, transformation, energy

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Authors: Jiao Sun, Li Pan, Shijun Liu

Abstract:

Recommender systems have been widely used in contemporary industry, and plenty of work has been done in this field to help users to identify items of interest. Collaborative Filtering (CF, for short) algorithm is an important technology in recommender systems. However, less work has been done in automobile recommendation system with the sharp increase of the amount of automobiles. What’s more, the computational speed is a major weakness for collaborative filtering technology. Therefore, using MapReduce framework to optimize the CF algorithm is a vital solution to this performance problem. In this paper, we present a recommendation of the users’ comment on industrial automobiles with various properties based on real world industrial datasets of user-automobile comment data collection, and provide recommendation for automobile providers and help them predict users’ comment on automobiles with new-coming property. Firstly, we solve the sparseness of matrix using previous construction of score matrix. Secondly, we solve the data normalization problem by removing dimensional effects from the raw data of automobiles, where different dimensions of automobile properties bring great error to the calculation of CF. Finally, we use the MapReduce framework to optimize the CF algorithm, and the computational speed has been improved times. UV decomposition used in this paper is an often used matrix factorization technology in CF algorithm, without calculating the interpolation weight of neighbors, which will be more convenient in industry.

Keywords: collaborative filtering, recommendation, data normalization, mapreduce

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Authors: Boris Kolev, Matt Kokan, Mohammad Deriszadeh, Farshid Bateni

Abstract:

Due to the increasing demand for real estate and the need for efficient land utilization in Greater Vancouver, developers have been increasingly considering the construction of high-rise structures with multiple below-grade parking. The temporary excavations required to allow for the construction of underground levels have recently reached up to 40 meters in depth. One of the challenges with deep excavations is the prediction of wall displacements and ground settlements due to their effect on the integrity of City utilities, infrastructure, and adjacent buildings. A large database of survey monitoring data has been collected for deep excavations in various soil conditions and shoring systems. The majority of the data collected is for tie-back anchors and shotcrete lagging systems. The data were categorized, analyzed and the results were evaluated to find a relationship between the most dominant parameters controlling the displacement, such as depth of excavation, soil properties, and the tie-back anchor loading and arrangement. For a select number of deep excavations, finite element modeling was considered for analyses. The lateral displacements from the simulation results were compared to the recorded survey monitoring data. The study concludes with a discussion and comparison of the available empirical and numerical modeling methodologies for evaluating lateral displacements in deep excavations.

Keywords: deep excavations, lateral displacements, numerical modeling, shoring walls, tieback anchors

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Authors: Shengnan Chen, Shuhua Wang

Abstract:

Successful production of hydrocarbon from unconventional tight oil reserves has changed the energy landscape in North America. The oil contained within these reservoirs typically will not flow to the wellbore at economic rates without assistance from advanced horizontal well and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing. Efficient and economic development of these reserves is a priority of society, government, and industry, especially under the current low oil prices. Meanwhile, society needs technological and process innovations to enhance oil recovery while concurrently reducing environmental impacts. Recently, big data analysis and artificial intelligence become very popular, developing data-driven insights for better designs and decisions in various engineering disciplines. However, the application of data mining in petroleum engineering is still in its infancy. The objective of this research aims to apply intelligent data analysis and data-driven models to exploit unconventional oil reserves both efficiently and economically. More specifically, a comprehensive database including the reservoir geological data, reservoir geophysical data, well completion data and production data for thousands of wells is firstly established to discover the valuable insights and knowledge related to tight oil reserves development. Several data analysis methods are introduced to analysis such a huge dataset. For example, K-means clustering is used to partition all observations into clusters; principle component analysis is applied to emphasize the variation and bring out strong patterns in the dataset, making the big data easy to explore and visualize; exploratory factor analysis (EFA) is used to identify the complex interrelationships between well completion data and well production data. Different data mining techniques, such as artificial neural network, fuzzy logic, and machine learning technique are then summarized, and appropriate ones are selected to analyze the database based on the prediction accuracy, model robustness, and reproducibility. Advanced knowledge and patterned are finally recognized and integrated into a modified self-adaptive differential evolution optimization workflow to enhance the oil recovery and maximize the net present value (NPV) of the unconventional oil resources. This research will advance the knowledge in the development of unconventional oil reserves and bridge the gap between the big data and performance optimizations in these formations. The newly developed data-driven optimization workflow is a powerful approach to guide field operation, which leads to better designs, higher oil recovery and economic return of future wells in the unconventional oil reserves.

Keywords: big data, artificial intelligence, enhance oil recovery, unconventional oil reserves

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Authors: Tomiwa, Akinyemi Clement

Abstract:

Tropical regions experience diverse and complex precipitation patterns, posing significant challenges for accurate rainfall estimation and forecasting. This study addresses the problem of effectively classifying tropical rain types and refining the Z-R (Reflectivity-Rain Rate) relationship to enhance rainfall estimation accuracy. Through a combination of remote sensing, meteorological analysis, and machine learning, the research aims to develop an advanced classification framework capable of distinguishing between different types of tropical rain based on their unique characteristics. This involves utilizing high-resolution satellite imagery, radar data, and atmospheric parameters to categorize precipitation events into distinct classes, providing a comprehensive understanding of tropical rain systems. Additionally, the study seeks to improve the Z-R relationship, a crucial aspect of rainfall estimation. One year of rainfall data was analyzed using a Micro Rain Radar (MRR) located at The Federal University of Technology Akure, Nigeria, measuring rainfall parameters from ground level to a height of 4.8 km with a vertical resolution of 0.16 km. Rain rates were classified into low (stratiform) and high (convective) based on various microstructural attributes such as rain rates, liquid water content, Drop Size Distribution (DSD), average fall speed of the drops, and radar reflectivity. By integrating diverse datasets and employing advanced statistical techniques, the study aims to enhance the precision of Z-R models, offering a more reliable means of estimating rainfall rates from radar reflectivity data. This refined Z-R relationship holds significant potential for improving our understanding of tropical rain systems and enhancing forecasting accuracy in regions prone to heavy precipitation.

Keywords: remote sensing, precipitation, drop size distribution, micro rain radar

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Authors: Tanmay Bisen, Aastha Shayla, Susham Biswas

Abstract:

Oil spills from tankers can cause significant harm to the environment and local communities, as well as have economic consequences. Early predictions of oil spills can help to minimize these impacts. Our proposed system uses machine learning and neural networks to predict potential oil spills by monitoring data from ship Automatic Identification Systems (AIS). The model analyzes ship movements, speeds, and changes in direction to identify patterns that deviate from the norm and could indicate a potential spill. Our approach not only identifies anomalies but also predicts spills before they occur, providing early detection and mitigation measures. This can prevent or minimize damage to the reputation of the company responsible and the country where the spill takes place. The model's performance on the MV Wakashio oil spill provides insight into its ability to detect and respond to real-world oil spills, highlighting areas for improvement and further research.

Keywords: Anomaly Detection, Oil Spill Prediction, Machine Learning, Image Processing, Graph Neural Network (GNN)

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Authors: Ajay Kumar Rana

Abstract:

Predicting human behaviour, discerning monozygotic twins or left over remnant tissues/fluids of a single human source remains a big challenge in forensic science. Recent advances in the field of DNA methylations which are broadly chemical hallmarks in response to environmental factors can certainly help to identify and discriminate various single-source DNA samples collected from the crime scenes. In this review, cytosine methylation of DNA has been methodologically discussed with its broad applications in many challenging forensic issues like body fluid identification, race/ethnicity identification, monozygotic twins dilemma, addiction or behavioural prediction, age prediction, or even authenticity of the human DNA. With the advent of next-generation sequencing techniques, blooming of DNA methylation datasets and together with standard molecular protocols, the prospect of investigating and solving the above issues and extracting the exact nature of the truth for reconstructing the crime scene events would be undoubtedly helpful in defending and solving the critical crime cases.

Keywords: DNA methylation, differentially methylated regions, human identification, forensics

Procedia PDF Downloads 308