Search results for: comfort models

Authors: Malika Fekih, Abdenour Bourabaa, Rafika Hariti, Mohamed Saighi

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In Algeria the global solar radiation and its components is not available for all locations due to which there is a requirement of using different models for the estimation of global solar radiation that use climatological parameters of the locations. Empirical constants for these models have been estimated and the results obtained have been tested statistically. The results show encouraging agreement between estimated and measured values.

Keywords: global solar radiation, empirical model, semi arid areas, climatological parameters

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Authors: Hai Hoang, Thanh Xuan Nguyen Thi, Guillaume Galliero

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Coarse-Grained (CG) molecular simulations have shown to be an efficient way to estimate thermophysical (static and dynamic) properties of fluids. Several strategies have been developed and reported in the literature for defining CG molecular models. Among them, those based on a top-down strategy (i.e. CG molecular models related to macroscopic observables), despite being heuristic, have increasingly gained attention. This is probably due to its simplicity in implementation and its ability to provide reasonable results for not only simple but also complex systems. Regarding simple Force-Fields associated with these CG molecular models, it has been found that the four parameters Mie chain model is one of the best compromises to describe thermophysical static properties (e.g. phase diagram, saturation pressure). However, parameterization procedures of these Mie-chain GC molecular models given in literature are generally insufficient to simultaneously provide static and dynamic (e.g. viscosity) properties. To deal with such situations, we have extended the corresponding states by using a quantity associated with the liquid viscosity. Results obtained from molecular simulations have shown that our approach is able to yield good estimates for both static and dynamic thermophysical properties for various real non-associating fluids. In addition, we will show that on simple (e.g. phase diagram, saturation pressure) and complex (e.g. thermodynamic response functions, thermodynamic energy potentials) static properties, results of our scheme generally provides improved results compared to existing approaches.

Keywords: coarse-grained model, mie potential, molecular simulations, thermophysical properties, phase equilibria

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Authors: Abdollah Ghasempour, Mohammad Reza Kavianpour, Majid Galoie

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This study has investigated the fundamental parameters which have effective role on energy dissipation of nappe flows on stepped chutes in order to estimate an empirical relationship using dimensional analysis. To gain this goal, comprehensive experimental study on some large-scale physical models with various step geometries, slopes, discharges, etc. were carried out. For all models, hydraulic parameters such as velocity, pressure, water depth, flow regime and etc. were measured precisely. The effective parameters, then, could be determined by analysis of experimental data. Finally, a dimensional analysis was done in order to estimate an empirical relationship for evaluation of energy dissipation of nappe flows on stepped chutes. Because of using the large-scale physical models in this study, the empirical relationship is in very good agreement with the experimental results.

Keywords: nappe flow, energy dissipation, stepped chute, dimensional analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 357

Authors: Arslan Murtaza

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Model Driven Architecture (MDA) is technique presented by OMG (Object Management Group) for software development in which different models are proposed and converted them into code. The main plan is to identify task by using PIM (Platform Independent Model) and transform it into PSM (Platform Specific Model) and then converted into code. In this review paper describes some challenges and issues that are faced in MDA, type and transformation of models (e.g. CIM, PIM and PSM), and evaluation of MDA-based methodologies.

Keywords: OMG, model driven rrchitecture (MDA), computation independent model (CIM), platform independent model (PIM), platform specific model(PSM), MDA-based methodologies

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Authors: Srikanth Pandurangi, Basheer Mohammed, Nezar Al Sayegh

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In order to meet the increasing demand for housing care for Kuwaiti citizens, the government authorities in Kuwait are undertaking a series of projects in the form of new large cities, outside the current urban area. Al Mutlaa City located to the north-west of the Kuwait Metropolitan Area is one such project out of the 15 planned new cities. The city accommodates a wide variety of residential developments, employment opportunities, commercial, recreational, health care and institutional uses. This paper examines the application of comprehensive transportation demand modeling works undertaken in VISUM platform to understand the future intracity and intercity travel distribution patterns in Kuwait. The scope of models developed varied in levels of detail: strategic model update, sub-area models representing future demand of Al Mutlaa City, sub-area models built to estimate the demand in the residential neighborhoods of the city. This paper aims at offering model update framework that facilitates easy integration between sub-area models and strategic national models for unified traffic forecasts. This paper presents the transportation demand modeling results utilized in informing the planning of multi-modal transportation system for Al Mutlaa City. This paper also presents the household survey data collection efforts undertaken using GPS devices (first time in Kuwait) and notebook computer based digital survey forms for interviewing representative sample of citizens and residents. The survey results formed the basis of estimating trip generation rates and trip distribution coefficients used in the strategic base year model calibration and validation process.

Keywords: innovative methods in transportation data collection, integrated public transportation system, traffic forecasts, transportation modeling, travel behavior

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Authors: Bekim Berisha, Sebastian Hirsiger, Pavel Hora

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Advanced material models involving several sets of model parameters require a big experimental effort. As models are getting more and more complex like e.g. the so called “Homogeneous Anisotropic Hardening - HAH” model for description of the yielding behavior in the 2D/3D stress space, the number and complexity of the required experiments are also increasing continuously. In the context of sheet metal forming, these requirements are even more pronounced, because of the anisotropic behavior or sheet materials. In addition, some of the experiments are very difficult to perform e.g. the plane stress biaxial compression test. Accordingly, tensile tests in at least three directions, biaxial tests and tension-compression or shear-reverse shear experiments are performed to determine the parameters of the macroscopic models. Therefore, determination of the macroscopic model parameters based on virtual experiments is a very promising strategy to overcome these difficulties. For this purpose, in the framework of multiscale material modeling, a dislocation density based crystal plasticity model in combination with a FFT-based spectral solver is applied to perform virtual experiments. Modeling of the plastic behavior of metals based on crystal plasticity theory is a well-established methodology. However, in general, the computation time is very high and therefore, the computations are restricted to simplified microstructures as well as simple polycrystal models. In this study, a dislocation density based crystal plasticity model – including an implementation of the backstress – is used in a spectral solver framework to generate virtual experiments for three deep drawing materials, DC05-steel, AA6111-T4 and AA4045 aluminum alloys. For this purpose, uniaxial as well as multiaxial loading cases, including various pre-strain histories, has been computed and validated with real experiments. These investigations showed that crystal plasticity modeling in the framework of Representative Volume Elements (RVEs) can be used to replace most of the expensive real experiments. Further, model parameters of advanced macroscopic models like the HAH model can be determined from virtual experiments, even for multiaxial deformation histories. It was also found that crystal plasticity modeling can be used to model anisotropic hardening more accurately by considering the backstress, similar to well-established macroscopic kinematic hardening models. It can be concluded that an efficient coupling of crystal plasticity models and the spectral solver leads to a significant reduction of the amount of real experiments needed to calibrate macroscopic models. This advantage leads also to a significant reduction of computational effort needed for the optimization of metal forming process. Further, due to the time efficient spectral solver used in the computation of the RVE models, detailed modeling of the microstructure are possible.

Keywords: anisotropic hardening, crystal plasticity, micro structure, spectral solver

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Authors: Abdulmalek Ahmed

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Formation pressure is the main function that affects drilling operation economically and efficiently. Knowing the pore pressure and the parameters that affect it will help to reduce the cost of drilling process. Many empirical models reported in the literature were used to calculate the formation pressure based on different parameters. Some of these models used only drilling parameters to estimate pore pressure. Other models predicted the formation pressure based on log data. All of these models required different trends such as normal or abnormal to predict the pore pressure. Few researchers applied artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to predict the formation pressure by only one method or a maximum of two methods of AI. The objective of this research is to predict the pore pressure based on both drilling parameters and log data namely; weight on bit, rotary speed, rate of penetration, mud weight, bulk density, porosity and delta sonic time. A real field data is used to predict the formation pressure using five different artificial intelligence (AI) methods such as; artificial neural networks (ANN), radial basis function (RBF), fuzzy logic (FL), support vector machine (SVM) and functional networks (FN). All AI tools were compared with different empirical models. AI methods estimated the formation pressure by a high accuracy (high correlation coefficient and low average absolute percentage error) and outperformed all previous. The advantage of the new technique is its simplicity, which represented from its estimation of pore pressure without the need of different trends as compared to other models which require a two different trend (normal or abnormal pressure). Moreover, by comparing the AI tools with each other, the results indicate that SVM has the advantage of pore pressure prediction by its fast processing speed and high performance (a high correlation coefficient of 0.997 and a low average absolute percentage error of 0.14%). In the end, a new empirical correlation for formation pressure was developed using ANN method that can estimate pore pressure with a high precision (correlation coefficient of 0.998 and average absolute percentage error of 0.17%).

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence (AI), Formation pressure, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Fuzzy Logic (FL), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Functional Networks (FN), Radial Basis Function (RBF)

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Authors: Amal G. Kurian

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The use of mathematical modeling has seen a considerable boost in recent times with the development of many advanced algorithms and mathematical modeling capabilities. The advantages this method has over other methods are that they are much closer to standard physics theories and thus represent a better theoretical model. They take lesser solving time and have the ability to change various parameters for optimization, which is a big advantage, especially in automotive industry. This thesis work focuses on a thorough investigation of the effects of vehicle speed and road roughness on a heavy commercial vehicle ride and structural dynamic responses. Since commercial vehicles are kept in operation continuously for longer periods of time, it is important to study effects of various physical conditions on the vehicle and its user. For this purpose, various experimental as well as simulation methodologies, are adopted ranging from experimental transfer path analysis to various road scenario simulations. To effectively investigate and eliminate several causes of unwanted responses, an efficient and robust technique is needed. Carrying forward this motivation, the present work focuses on the development of a mathematical model of a 4-axle configuration heavy commercial vehicle (HCV) capable of calculating responses of the vehicle on different road PSD inputs and vehicle speeds. Outputs from the model will include response transfer functions and PSDs and wheel forces experienced. A MATLAB code will be developed to implement the objectives in a robust and flexible manner which can be exploited further in a study of responses due to various suspension parameters, loading conditions as well as vehicle dimensions. The thesis work resulted in quantifying the effect of various physical conditions on ride comfort of the vehicle. An increase in discomfort is seen with velocity increase; also the effect of road profiles has a considerable effect on comfort of the driver. Details of dominant modes at each frequency are analysed and mentioned in work. The reduction in ride height or deflection of tire and suspension with loading along with load on each axle is analysed and it is seen that the front axle supports a greater portion of vehicle weight while more of payload weight comes on fourth and third axles. The deflection of the vehicle is seen to be well inside acceptable limits.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, HCV, suspension, ride analysis

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Authors: Erion Luga, Aksel Seitllari, Kemal Pervanqe

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This study investigates the relation between physical and mechanical properties of concrete paving stones using neuro-fuzzy approach. For this purpose 200 samples of concrete paving stones were selected randomly from different sources. The first phase included the determination of physical properties of the samples such as water absorption capacity, porosity and unit weight. After that the indirect tensile strength test and compressive strength test of the samples were performed. İn the second phase, adaptive neuro-fuzzy approach was employed to simulate nonlinear mapping between the above mentioned physical properties and mechanical properties of paving stones. The neuro-fuzzy models uses Sugeno type fuzzy inference system. The models parameters were adapted using hybrid learning algorithm and input space was fuzzyfied by considering grid partitioning. It is concluded based on the observed data and the estimated data through ANFIS models that neuro-fuzzy system exhibits a satisfactory performance.

Keywords: paving stones, physical properties, mechanical properties, ANFIS

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Authors: Marek Długosz, Paweł Skruch

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One of purposes of home automation systems is to provide appropriate comfort to the users by suitable air temperature control and stabilization inside the rooms. The control of temperature level is not a simple task and the basic difficulty results from the fact that accurate parameters of the object of control, that is a building, remain unknown. Whereas the structure of the model is known, the identification of model parameters is a difficult task. In this paper, a control algorithm allowing the present temperature to be reached inside the building within the specified time without the need to know accurate parameters of the building itself is presented.

Keywords: control, home automation system, wireless networking, automation engineering

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Authors: S. Adhirai Subramaniyam, Paramjit Singh

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This paper presents major issues in cloud computing. The paper describes different cloud computing deployment models and cloud service models available in the field of cloud computing. The paper then concentrates on various issues in the field. The issues such as cloud compatibility, compliance of the cloud, standardizing cloud technology, monitoring while on the cloud and cloud security are described. The paper suggests solutions for these issues and concludes that hybrid cloud infrastructure is a real boon for organizations.

Keywords: cloud, cloud computing, mobile cloud computing, private cloud, public cloud, hybrid cloud, SAAS, PAAS, IAAS, cloud security

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Authors: Djelloul Benatiallah

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Due to the current high consumption and recent industry growth, the depletion of fossil and natural energy supplies like oil, gas, and uranium is declining. Due to pollution and climate change, there needs to be a swift switch to renewable energy sources. Research on renewable energy is being done to meet energy needs. Solar energy is one of the renewable resources that can currently meet all of the world's energy needs. In most parts of the world, solar energy is a free and unlimited resource that can be used in a variety of ways, including photovoltaic systems for the generation of electricity and thermal systems for the generation of heatfor the residential sector's production of hot water. In this article, we'll conduct a comparison. The first step entails identifying the two empirical models that will enable us to estimate the daily irradiations on a horizontal plane. On the other hand, we compare it using the data obtained from measurements made at the Adrar site over the four distinct seasons. The model 2 provides a better estimate of the global solar components, with an absolute mean error of less than 7% and a correlation coefficient of more than 0.95, as well as a relative coefficient of the bias error that is less than 6% in absolute value and a relative RMSE that is less than 10%, according to a comparison of the results obtained by simulating the two models.

Keywords: solar radiation, renewable energy, fossil, photovoltaic systems

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Authors: Nor Zila Abd Hamid, Mohd Salmi M. Noorani

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This study is focused on the development of prediction models of the Ozone concentration time series. Prediction model is built based on chaotic approach. Firstly, the chaotic nature of the time series is detected by means of phase space plot and the Cao method. Then, the prediction model is built and the local linear approximation method is used for the forecasting purposes. Traditional prediction of autoregressive linear model is also built. Moreover, an improvement in local linear approximation method is also performed. Prediction models are applied to the hourly ozone time series observed at the benchmark station in Malaysia. Comparison of all models through the calculation of mean absolute error, root mean squared error and correlation coefficient shows that the one with improved prediction method is the best. Thus, chaotic approach is a good approach to be used to develop a prediction model for the Ozone concentration time series.

Keywords: chaotic approach, phase space, Cao method, local linear approximation method

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Authors: Min Kyung An

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In this paper, we study the data collection problem in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) adopting the two interference models: The graph model and the more realistic physical interference model known as Signal-to-Interference-Noise-Ratio (SINR). The main issue of the problem is to compute schedules with the minimum number of timeslots, that is, to compute the minimum latency schedules, such that data from every node can be collected without any collision or interference to a sink node. While existing works studied the problem with unit-sized and unbounded-sized message models, we investigate the problem with the bounded-sized message model, and introduce a constant factor approximation algorithm. To the best known of our knowledge, our result is the first result of the data collection problem with bounded-sized model in both interference models.

Keywords: data collection, collision-free, interference-free, physical interference model, SINR, approximation, bounded-sized message model, wireless sensor networks

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Authors: Karin Schakib-Ekbatan, Annette Roser

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According to the Federal Government’s plans, the German building stock should be virtually climate neutral by 2050. Thus, the “EnEff.Gebäude.2050” funding initiative was launched, complementing the projects of the Energy Transition Construction research initiative. Beyond the construction and renovation of individual buildings, solutions must be found at the neighborhood level. The subject of the presented pilot project is a building ensemble from the Wilhelminian period in Munich, which is planned to be refurbished based on a socially compatible, energy-saving, innovative-technical modernization concept. The building ensemble, with about 200 apartments, is part of the building cooperative. To create an optimized network and possible synergies between researchers and projects of the funding initiative, a Scientific Accompanying Research was established for cross-project analyses of findings and results in order to identify further research needs and trends. Thus, the project is characterized by an interdisciplinary approach that combines constructional, technical, and socio-scientific expertise based on a participatory understanding of research by involving the tenants at an early stage. The research focus is on getting insights into the tenants’ comfort requirements, attitudes, and energy-related behaviour. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are applied based on the Technology-Acceptance-Model (TAM). The core of the refurbishment strategy is a wall heating system intended to replace conventional radiators. A wall heating provides comfortable and consistent radiant heat instead of convection heat, which often causes drafts and dust turbulence. Besides comfort and health, the advantage of wall heating systems is an energy-saving operation. All apartments would be supplied by a uniform basic temperature control system (around perceived room temperature of 18 °C resp. 64,4 °F), which could be adapted to individual preferences via individual heating options (e. g. infrared heating). The new heating system would affect the furnishing of the walls, in terms of not allowing the wall surface to be covered too much with cupboards or pictures. Measurements and simulations of the energy consumption of an installed wall heating system are currently being carried out in a show apartment in this neighborhood to investigate energy-related, economical aspects as well as thermal comfort. In March, interviews were conducted with a total of 12 people in 10 households. The interviews were analyzed by MAXQDA. The main issue of the interview was the fear of reduced self-efficacy within their own walls (not having sufficient individual control over the room temperature or being very limited in furnishing). Other issues concerned the impact that the construction works might have on their daily life, such as noise or dirt. Despite their basically positive attitude towards a climate-friendly refurbishment concept, tenants were very concerned about the further development of the project and they expressed a great need for information events. The results of the interviews will be used for project-internal discussions on technical and psychological aspects of the refurbishment strategy in order to design accompanying workshops with the tenants as well as to prepare a written survey involving all households of the neighbourhood.

Keywords: energy efficiency, interviews, participation, refurbishment, residential buildings

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Authors: Nada Slimane, Foued Theljani, Faouzi Bouani

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The paper addresses the problem of fault diagnosis for systems operating in several modes (normal or faulty) based on states assessment. We use, for this purpose, a methodology consisting of three main processes: 1) sequential data clustering, 2) linear model regression and 3) state filtering. Typically, Kalman Filter (KF) is an algorithm that provides estimation of unknown states using a sequence of I/O measurements. Inevitably, although it is an efficient technique for state estimation, it presents two main weaknesses. First, it merely predicts states without being able to isolate/classify them according to their different operating modes, whether normal or faulty modes. To deal with this dilemma, the KF is endowed with an extra clustering step based fully on sequential version of the k-means algorithm. Second, to provide state estimation, KF requires state space models, which can be unknown. A linear regularized regression is used to identify the required models. To prove its effectiveness, the proposed approach is assessed on a simulated benchmark.

Keywords: clustering, diagnosis, Kalman Filtering, k-means, regularized regression

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Authors: Javier Sedano-Cibrián, Julio Manuel de Luis-Ruiz, Rubén Pérez-Álvarez, Raúl Pereda-García, Beatriz Malagón-Picón

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Structural inspection activities are necessary to ensure the correct functioning of infrastructures. Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) techniques have become more popular than traditional techniques. Specifically, UAV Photogrammetry allows time and cost savings. The development of this technology has permitted the use of low-cost thermal sensors in UAVs. The representation of 3D thermal models with this type of equipment is in continuous evolution. The direct processing of thermal images usually leads to errors and inaccurate results. A methodology is proposed for the generation of 3D thermal models using dual sensors, which involves the application of visible Red-Blue-Green (RGB) and thermal images in parallel. Hence, the RGB images are used as the basis for the generation of the model geometry, and the thermal images are the source of the surface temperature information that is projected onto the model. Mining/industrial facilities representations that are obtained can be used for inspection activities.

Keywords: aerial thermography, data processing, drone, low-cost, point cloud

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Authors: Yiannis G. Smirlis

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The classification and the prediction of efficiencies in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is an important issue, especially in large scale problems or when new units frequently enter the under-assessment set. In this paper, we contribute to the subject by proposing a grid structure based on interval segmentations of the range of values for the inputs and outputs. Such intervals combined, define hyper-rectangles that partition the space of the problem. This structure, exploited by Interval DEA models and a dominance relation, acts as a DEA pre-processor, enabling the classification and prediction of efficiency scores, without applying any DEA models.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, interval DEA, efficiency classification, efficiency prediction

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Authors: Jairson Barbosa Rodrigues, Paulo Romero Martins Maciel, Germano Crispim Vasconcelos

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This paper presents an investigation of the performance impacts regarding the variation of five factors (input data size, node number, cores, memory, and disks) when applying a distributed implementation of Naïve Bayes for text classification of a large Corpus on the Spark big data processing framework. Problem: The algorithm's performance depends on multiple factors, and knowing before-hand the effects of each factor becomes especially critical as hardware is priced by time slice in cloud environments. Objectives: To explain the functional relationship between factors and performance and to develop linear predictor models for time and cost. Methods: the solid statistical principles of Design of Experiments (DoE), particularly the randomized two-level fractional factorial design with replications. This research involved 48 real clusters with different hardware arrangements. The metrics were analyzed using linear models for screening, ranking, and measurement of each factor's impact. Results: Our findings include prediction models and show some non-intuitive results about the small influence of cores and the neutrality of memory and disks on total execution time, and the non-significant impact of data input scale on costs, although notably impacts the execution time.

Keywords: big data, design of experiments, distributed machine learning, natural language processing, spark

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Authors: Ning Chang, Zelong Yuan, Yunpeng Wang, Jianchun Wang

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Large eddy simulation (LES) has been extensively used in the investigation of turbulence. LES calculates the grid-resolved large-scale motions and leaves small scales modeled by sublfilterscale (SFS) models. Among the existing SFS models, the deconvolution model has been used successfully in the LES of the engineering flows and geophysical flows. Despite the wide application of deconvolution models, the effects of subfilter scale dynamics and filter anisotropy on the accuracy of SFS modeling have not been investigated in depth. The results of LES are highly sensitive to the selection of filters and the anisotropy of the grid, which has been overlooked in previous research. In the current study, two critical aspects of LES are investigated. Firstly, we analyze the influence of sub-filter scale (SFS) dynamics on the accuracy of direct deconvolution models (DDM) at varying filter-to-grid ratios (FGR) in isotropic turbulence. An array of invertible filters are employed, encompassing Gaussian, Helmholtz I and II, Butterworth, Chebyshev I and II, Cauchy, Pao, and rapidly decaying filters. The significance of FGR becomes evident, as it acts as a pivotal factor in error control for precise SFS stress prediction. When FGR is set to 1, the DDM models cannot accurately reconstruct the SFS stress due to the insufficient resolution of SFS dynamics. Notably, prediction capabilities are enhanced at an FGR of 2, resulting in accurate SFS stress reconstruction, except for cases involving Helmholtz I and II filters. A remarkable precision close to 100% is achieved at an FGR of 4 for all DDM models. Additionally, the further exploration extends to the filter anisotropy to address its impact on the SFS dynamics and LES accuracy. By employing dynamic Smagorinsky model (DSM), dynamic mixed model (DMM), and direct deconvolution model (DDM) with the anisotropic filter, aspect ratios (AR) ranging from 1 to 16 in LES filters are evaluated. The findings highlight the DDM's proficiency in accurately predicting SFS stresses under highly anisotropic filtering conditions. High correlation coefficients exceeding 90% are observed in the a priori study for the DDM's reconstructed SFS stresses, surpassing those of the DSM and DMM models. However, these correlations tend to decrease as lter anisotropy increases. In the a posteriori studies, the DDM model consistently outperforms the DSM and DMM models across various turbulence statistics, encompassing velocity spectra, probability density functions related to vorticity, SFS energy flux, velocity increments, strain-rate tensors, and SFS stress. It is observed that as filter anisotropy intensify, the results of DSM and DMM become worse, while the DDM continues to deliver satisfactory results across all filter-anisotropy scenarios. The findings emphasize the DDM framework's potential as a valuable tool for advancing the development of sophisticated SFS models for LES of turbulence.

Keywords: deconvolution model, large eddy simulation, subfilter scale modeling, turbulence

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Authors: Davies Obaromi, Qin Yongsong, James Ndege, Azeez Adeboye, Akinwumi Odeyemi

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The basic model usually used in disease mapping, is the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model and which combines the spatially structured and spatially unstructured priors as random effects. Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model is a disease mapping method that is commonly used for smoothening the relative risk of any disease as used in the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model. This model (CAR), which is also usually assigned as a prior to one of the spatial random effects in the BYM model, successfully uses information from adjacent sites to improve estimates for individual sites. To our knowledge, there are some unrealistic or counter-intuitive consequences on the posterior covariance matrix of the CAR prior for the spatial random effects. In the conventional BYM (Besag, York and Mollie) model, the spatially structured and the unstructured random components cannot be seen independently, and which challenges the prior definitions for the hyperparameters of the two random effects. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to construct and utilize an extended Bayesian spatial CAR model for studying tuberculosis patterns in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, and then compare for flexibility with some existing CAR models. The results of the study revealed the flexibility and robustness of this alternative extended CAR to the commonly used CAR models by comparison, using the deviance information criteria. The extended Bayesian spatial CAR model is proved to be a useful and robust tool for disease modeling and as a prior for the structured spatial random effects because of the inclusion of an extra hyperparameter.

Keywords: Besag2, CAR models, disease mapping, INLA, spatial models

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Authors: Azin Zargham, Gholamreza Rouhi, Allahyar Geramy

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One of the most prevalent types of alveolar bone loss is horizontal bone loss (HBL) in which the bone height around teeth is reduced homogenously. In the presence of HBL the magnitudes of forces during orthodontic treatment should be altered according to the degree of HBL, in a way that without further bone loss, desired tooth movement can be obtained. In order to investigate the appropriate orthodontic force system in the presence of HBL, a three-dimensional numerical model capable of the simulation of orthodontic tooth movement was developed. The main goal of this research was to evaluate the effect of different degrees of HBL on a long-term orthodontic tooth movement. Moreover, the effect of different force magnitudes on orthodontic tooth movement in the presence of HBL was studied. Five three-dimensional finite element models of a maxillary lateral incisor with 0 mm, 1.5 mm, 3 mm, 4.5 mm and 6 mm of HBL were constructed. The long-term orthodontic tooth tipping movements were attained during a 4-weeks period in an iterative process through the external remodeling of the alveolar bone based on strains in periodontal ligament as the bone remodeling mechanical stimulus. To obtain long-term orthodontic tooth movement in each iteration, first the strains in periodontal ligament under a 1-N tipping force were calculated using finite element analysis. Then, bone remodeling and the subsequent tooth movement were computed in a post-processing software using a custom written program. Incisal edge, cervical, and apical area displacement in the models with different alveolar bone heights (0, 1.5, 3, 4.5, 6 mm bone loss) in response to a 1-N tipping force were calculated. Maximum tooth displacement was found to be 2.65 mm at the top of the crown of the model with a 6 mm bone loss. Minimum tooth displacement was 0.45 mm at the cervical level of the model with a normal bone support. Tooth tipping degrees of models in response to different tipping force magnitudes were also calculated for models with different degrees of HBL. Degrees of tipping tooth movement increased as force level was increased. This increase was more prominent in the models with smaller degrees of HBL. By using finite element method and bone remodeling theories, this study indicated that in the presence of HBL, under the same load, long-term orthodontic tooth movement will increase. The simulation also revealed that even though tooth movement increases with increasing the force, this increase was only prominent in the models with smaller degrees of HBL, and tooth models with greater degrees of HBL will be less affected by the magnitude of an orthodontic force. Based on our results, the applied force magnitude must be reduced in proportion of degree of HBL.

Keywords: bone remodeling, finite element method, horizontal bone loss, orthodontic tooth movement.

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Authors: Liwiusz Wojciechowski

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Research background: The current knowledge does not give a clear answer to the question of the impact of FDI on productivity. Results of the empirical studies are still inconclusive, no matter how extensive and diverse in terms of research approaches or groups of countries analyzed they are. It should also take into account the possibility that FDI and productivity are linked and that there is a bidirectional relationship between them. This issue is particularly important because on one hand FDI can contribute to changes in productivity in the host country, but on the other hand its level and dynamics may imply that FDI should be undertaken in a given country. As already mentioned, a two-way relationship between the presence of foreign capital and productivity in the host country should be assumed, taking into consideration the endogenous nature of FDI. Purpose of the article: The overall objective of this study is to determine the causality between foreign direct investment and total factor productivity in host county in terms of different relative absorptive capacity across countries. In the classic sense causality among variables is not always obvious and requires for testing, which would facilitate proper specification of FDI models. The aim of this article is to study endogeneity of selected macroeconomic variables commonly being used in FDI models in case of Visegrad countries: main recipients of FDI in CEE. The findings may be helpful in determining the structure of the actual relationship between variables, in appropriate models estimation and in forecasting as well as economic policymaking. Methodology/methods: Panel and time-series data techniques including GMM estimator, VEC models and causality tests were utilized in this study. Findings & Value added: The obtained results allow to confirm the hypothesis states the bi-directional causality between FDI and total factor productivity. Although results differ from among countries and data level of aggregation implications may be useful for policymakers in case of providing foreign capital attracting policy.

Keywords: endogeneity, foreign direct investment, multi-equation models, total factor productivity

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Authors: Svetlana K. Eden

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Movies and TV shows have long become part of modern culture. We all have our preferred genre, story, actors, and actresses. However, can we objectively discern good acting from the bad? As laymen, we are probably not objective, but what about the Oscar academy members? Are their votes based on objective measures? Oscar academy members are probably also biased due to many factors, including their professional affiliations or advertisement exposure. Heavily advertised films bring more publicity to their cast and are likely to have bigger budgets. Because a bigger budget may also help earn a Best Picture (BP) nomination, we hypothesize that best actor/actress (BA) nominees from BP-nominated movies would have higher chances of winning the award than those BA nominees from non-BP-nominated films. To test this hypothesis, three Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed, and their performance is evaluated. The results from all three models largely support our hypothesis. Depending on the proportion of BP nominations among BA nominees, the odds ratios (estimated over expected) of winning the BA award conditional on BP nomination vary from 2.8 [0.8-7.0] to 4.3 [2.0, 15.8] for actors and from 1.5 [0.0, 12.2] to 5.4 [2.7, 14.2] for actresses.

Keywords: Oscar, best picture, best actor/actress, bias

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Authors: Hami Ashraf, Mohammad Heydarnejad

Abstract:

Introduction: The landscape of cancer treatment has been revolutionized by immunotherapy, offering novel therapeutic avenues for diverse cancer types. Animal models play a pivotal role in the development and elucidation of these therapeutic modalities. Nevertheless, the manifestation of Graft-versus-Host Disease (GVHD) in such models poses significant challenges, muddling the interpretation of experimental data within the ambit of cancer immunotherapy. This study is dedicated to scrutinizing the role of GVHD as a confounding factor in animal models used for cancer immunotherapy, alongside proposing viable strategies to mitigate this complication. Method: Employing a systematic review framework, this study undertakes a comprehensive literature survey including academic journals in PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases and conference proceedings to collate pertinent research that delves into the impact of GVHD on animal models in cancer immunotherapy. The acquired studies undergo rigorous analysis and synthesis, aiming to assess the influence of GVHD on experimental results while identifying strategies to alleviate its confounding effects. Results: Findings indicate that GVHD incidence significantly skews the reliability and applicability of experimental outcomes, occasionally leading to erroneous interpretations. The literature surveyed also sheds light on various methodologies under exploration to counteract the GVHD dilemma, thereby bolstering the experimental integrity in this domain. Conclusion: GVHD's presence critically affects both the interpretation and validity of experimental findings, underscoring the imperative for strategies to curtail its confounding impacts. Current research endeavors are oriented towards devising solutions to this issue, aiming to augment the dependability and pertinence of experimental results. It is incumbent upon researchers to diligently consider and adjust for GVHD's effects, thereby enhancing the translational potential of animal model findings to clinical applications and propelling progress in the arena of cancer immunotherapy.

Keywords: graft-versus-host disease, cancer immunotherapy, animal models, preclinical model

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Authors: Sarthak Deshpande, Akshay Patil, Pradip Pandhare, Nikhil Wankhede, Rushali Deshmukh

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Among the highly significant duties for any language most effective is the sentiment analysis, which is also a key area of NLP, that recently made impressive strides. There are several models and datasets available for those tasks in popular and commonly used languages like English, Russian, and Spanish. While sentiment analysis research is performed extensively, however it is lagging behind for the regional languages having few resources such as Hindi, Marathi. Marathi is one of the languages that included in the Indian Constitution’s 8th schedule and is the third most widely spoken language in the country and primarily spoken in the Deccan region, which encompasses Maharashtra and Goa. There isn’t sufficient study on sentiment analysis methods based on Marathi text due to lack of available resources, information. Therefore, this project proposes the use of different ML/NLP models for the analysis of Marathi data from the comments below YouTube content, tweets or Instagram posts. We aim to achieve a short and precise analysis and summary of the related data using our dataset (Dates, names, root words) and lexicons to locate exact information.

Keywords: multilingual sentiment analysis, Marathi, natural language processing, text summarization, lexicon-based approaches

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Authors: Yamina Boughari, Ruxandra Mihaela Botez, Florian Theel, Georges Ghazi

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Clearance of flight control laws of a civil aircraft is a long and expensive process in the Aerospace industry. Thousands of flight combinations in terms of speeds, altitudes, gross weights, centers of gravity and angles of attack have to be investigated, and proved to be safe. Nonetheless, in this method, a worst flight condition can be easily missed, and its missing would lead to a critical situation. Definitively, it would be impossible to analyze a model because of the infinite number of cases contained within its flight envelope, that might require more time, and therefore more design cost. Therefore, in industry, the technique of the flight envelope mesh is commonly used. For each point of the flight envelope, the simulation of the associated model ensures the satisfaction or not of specifications. In order to perform fast, comprehensive and effective analysis, other varying parameters models were developed by incorporating variations, or uncertainties in the nominal models, known as Linear Fractional Representation LFR models; these LFR models were able to describe the aircraft dynamics by taking into account uncertainties over the flight envelope. In this paper, the LFRs models are developed using the speeds and altitudes as varying parameters; The LFR models were built using several flying conditions expressed in terms of speeds and altitudes. The use of such a method has gained a great interest by the aeronautical companies that have seen a promising future in the modeling, and particularly in the design and certification of control laws. In this research paper, we will focus on the Cessna Citation X open loop stability analysis. The data are provided by a Research Aircraft Flight Simulator of Level D, that corresponds to the highest level flight dynamics certification; this simulator was developed by CAE Inc. and its development was based on the requirements of research at the LARCASE laboratory. The acquisition of these data was used to develop a linear model of the airplane in its longitudinal and lateral motions, and was further used to create the LFR’s models for 12 XCG /weights conditions, and thus the whole flight envelope using a friendly Graphical User Interface developed during this study. Then, the LFR’s models are analyzed using Interval Analysis method based upon Lyapunov function, and also the ‘stability and robustness analysis’ toolbox. The results were presented under the form of graphs, thus they have offered good readability, and were easily exploitable. The weakness of this method stays in a relatively long calculation, equal to about four hours for the entire flight envelope.

Keywords: flight control clearance, LFR, stability analysis, robustness analysis

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Authors: Nicola Rubino

Abstract:

This paper presents an analysis of a group of commodity exporting countries' nominal exchange rate movements in relationship to the US dollar. Using a series of Unrestricted Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive models (SETAR), we model and evaluate sixteen national CPI price differentials relative to the US dollar CPI. Out-of-sample forecast accuracy is evaluated through calculation of mean absolute error measures on the basis of two-hundred and fifty-three months rolling window forecasts and extended to three additional models, namely a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTAR), an additive non linear autoregressive model (AAR) and a simple linear Neural Network model (NNET). Our preliminary results confirm presence of some form of TAR non linearity in the majority of the countries analyzed, with a relatively higher goodness of fit, with respect to the linear AR(1) benchmark, in five countries out of sixteen considered. Although no model appears to statistically prevail over the other, our final out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that SETAR models tend to have quite poor relative forecasting performance, especially when compared to alternative non-linear specifications. Finally, by analyzing the implied half-lives of the > coefficients, our results confirms the presence, in the spirit of arbitrage band adjustment, of band convergence with an inner unit root behaviour in five of the sixteen countries analyzed.

Keywords: transition regression model, real exchange rate, nonlinearities, price differentials, PPP, commodity points

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Authors: Teh Raihana Nazirah Roslan, Siti Zulaiha Ibrahim, Sharmila Karim

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A warrant is a financial contract that confers the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell a security at a certain price before expiration. The standard procedure to value equity warrants using call option pricing models such as the Black–Scholes model had been proven to contain many flaws, such as the assumption of constant interest rate and constant volatility. In fact, existing alternative models were found focusing more on demonstrating techniques for pricing, rather than empirical testing. Therefore, a mathematical model for pricing and analyzing equity warrants which comprises stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility is essential to incorporate the dynamic relationships between the identified variables and illustrate the real market. Here, the aim is to develop dynamic pricing formulations for hybrid equity warrants by incorporating stochastic interest rates from the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model, along with stochastic volatility from the Heston model. The development of the model involves the derivations of stochastic differential equations that govern the model dynamics. The resulting equations which involve Cauchy problem and heat equations are then solved using partial differential equation approaches. The analytical pricing formulas obtained in this study comply with the form of analytical expressions embedded in the Black-Scholes model and other existing pricing models for equity warrants. This facilitates the practicality of this proposed formula for comparison purposes and further empirical study.

Keywords: Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, equity warrants, Heston model, hybrid models, stochastic

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Authors: Mohammad Abu-Taleb

Abstract:

The final report of the Royal Commission into Australian financial services misconduct, released in February 2019, has had a significant impact on the financial advice industry. The recommendations released in the Commissioner’s final report include changes to ongoing fee arrangements, a new disciplinary system for financial advisers, and mandatory reporting of compliance concerns. This thesis aims to explore the impact of the Royal Commission’s recommendations on the operating model of financial advice firms in terms of advice products, processes, delivery models, and customer segments. Also, this research seeks to investigate whether the Royal Commission’s outcome has accelerated the use of enhanced technology solutions within the operating model of financial advice firms. And to identify the key challenges confronting financial advice firms whilst implementing the Commissioner’s recommendations across their operating models. In order to achieve the objectives of this thesis, a qualitative research design has been adopted through semi-structured in-depth interviews with 24 financial advisers and managers who are engaged in the operation of financial advice services. The study used the thematic analysis approach to interpret the qualitative data collected from the interviews. The findings of this thesis reveal that customer-centric operating models will become more prominent across the financial advice industry in response to the Commissioner’s final report. And the Royal Commission’s outcome has accelerated the use of advice technology solutions within the operating model of financial advice firms. In addition, financial advice firms have started more than before using simpler and more automated web-based advice services, which enable financial advisers to provide simple advice in a greater scale, and also to accelerate the use of robo-advice models and digital delivery to mass customers in the long term. Furthermore, the study identifies process and technology changes as, long with technical and interpersonal skills development, as the key challenges encountered financial advice firms whilst implementing the Commissioner’s recommendations across their operating models.

Keywords: hayne royal commission, financial planning advice, operating model, advice products, advice processes, delivery models, customer segments, digital advice solutions

Procedia PDF Downloads 83