Search results for: climate model

Authors: Martin Adlington, Boris Ceranic, Sally Shazhad

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In an effort to reduce carbon emissions, changes in UK regulations, such as Part L Conservation of heat and power, dictates improved thermal insulation and enhanced air tightness. These changes were a direct response to the UK Government being fully committed to achieving its carbon targets under the Climate Change Act 2008. The goal is to reduce emissions by at least 80% by 2050. Factors such as climate change are likely to exacerbate the problem of overheating, as this phenomenon expects to increase the frequency of extreme heat events exemplified by stagnant air masses and successive high minimum overnight temperatures. However, climate change is not the only concern relevant to overheating, as research signifies, location, design, and occupation; construction type and layout can also play a part. Because of this growing problem, research shows the possibility of health effects on occupants of buildings could be an issue. Increases in temperature can perhaps have a direct impact on the human body’s ability to retain thermoregulation and therefore the effects of heat-related illnesses such as heat stroke, heat exhaustion, heat syncope and even death can be imminent. This review paper presents a comprehensive evaluation of the current literature on the causes and health effects of overheating in buildings and has examined the differing applied assessment approaches used to measure the concept. Firstly, an overview of the topic was presented followed by an examination of overheating research work from the last decade. These papers form the body of the article and are grouped into a framework matrix summarizing the source material identifying the differing methods of analysis of overheating. Cross case evaluation has identified systematic relationships between different variables within the matrix. Key areas focused on include, building types and country, occupants behavior, health effects, simulation tools, computational methods.

Keywords: overheating, climate change, thermal comfort, health

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Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

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The e-government emerging concept transforms the way in which the citizens are dealing with their governments. Thus, the citizens can execute the intended services online anytime and anywhere. This results in great benefits for both the governments (reduces the number of officers) and the citizens (more flexibility and time saving). Therefore, building a maturity model to assess the e-government portals becomes desired to help in the improvement process of such portals. This paper aims at proposing an e-government maturity model based on the measurement of the best practices’ presence. The main benefit of such maturity model is to provide a way to rank an e-government portal based on the used best practices, and also giving a set of recommendations to go to the higher stage in the maturity model.

Keywords: best practices, e-government portal, maturity model, quality model

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Authors: Emily Injete Amondo, Alisher Mirzabaev, Emmanuel Rukundo

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Children in rural farming households are often vulnerable to a multitude of risks, including health risks associated with climate change and variability. Cognizant of this, this study empirically traced the relationship between climate variability and nutritional health outcomes in rural children while identifying the cause-and-effect transmission mechanisms. We combined four waves of the rich Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS), part of the World Bank Living Standards Measurement Studies (LSMS) for the period 2009-2014, with long-term and high-frequency rainfall and temperature datasets. Self-reported drought and flood shock variables were further used in separate regressions for triangulation purposes and robustness checks. Panel fixed effects regressions were applied in the empirical analysis, accounting for a variety of causal identification issues. The results showed significant negative outcomes for children’s anthropometric measurements due to the impacts of moderate and extreme droughts, extreme wet spells, and heatwaves. On the contrary, moderate wet spells were positively linked with nutritional measures. Agricultural production and child diarrhea were the main transmission channels, with heatwaves, droughts, and high rainfall variability negatively affecting crop output. The probability of diarrhea was positively related to increases in temperature and dry spells. Results further revealed that children in households who engaged in ex-ante or anticipatory risk-reducing strategies such as savings had better health outcomes as opposed to those engaged in ex-post coping such as involuntary change of diet. These results highlight the importance of adaptation in smoothing the harmful effects of climate variability on the health of rural households and children in Uganda.

Keywords: extreme weather events, undernutrition, diarrhea, agricultural production, gridded weather data

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Authors: Thu Le Thi Bao

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Industrial parks have both active roles in promoting economic development and source of appearance of boarding houses and slums in the adjacent area, lacking infrastructure, causing many social evils. The context of the recent pandemic and climate change on a global scale pose issues that need to be resolved for sustainable development. Ho Chi Minh City aims to develop housing for migrant workers to stabilize human resources and, at the same time, solve problems of social evils caused by poor living conditions. The paper focuses on the content of renovating existing industrial parks and worker accommodation in Ho Chi Minh City to propose appropriate models, contributing to the goal of urban embellishment and solutions for industrial parks to adapt to abnormal impact conditions such as pandemics, climate change, crises.

Keywords: industrial park, social housing, accommodation, distribution center

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Authors: Smitha Haridasan, Zelalem Demissie, Atri Dutta, Ajita Rattani

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Aided by the wind, all it takes is one ember and a few minutes to create a wildfire. Wildfires are growing in frequency and size due to climate change. Wildfires and its consequences are one of the major environmental concerns. Every year, millions of hectares of forests are destroyed over the world, causing mass destruction and human casualties. Thus early detection of wildfire becomes a critical component to mitigate this threat. Many computer vision-based techniques have been proposed for the early detection of forest fire using video surveillance. Several computer vision-based methods have been proposed to predict and detect forest fires at various spectrums, namely, RGB, HSV, and YCbCr. The aim of this paper is to propose a multi-spectral deep learning model that combines information from different spectrums at intermediate layers for accurate fire detection. A heterogeneous dataset assembled from publicly available datasets is used for model training and evaluation in this study. The experimental results show that multi-spectral deep learning models could obtain an improvement of about 4.68 % over those based on a single spectrum for fire detection.

Keywords: deep learning, forest fire detection, multi-spectral learning, natural hazard detection

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Authors: Newton Muhury, Armando A. Apan, Tek N. Marasani, Gebiaw T. Ayele

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The changing climate has degraded freshwater availability in Australia that influencing vegetation growth to a great extent. This study assessed the vegetation responses to groundwater using Terra’s moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS), Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and soil water content (SWC). A hydrological model, SWAT, has been set up in a southeast Australian river catchment for groundwater analysis. The model was calibrated and validated against monthly streamflow from 2001 to 2006 and 2007 to 2010, respectively. The SWAT simulated soil water content for 43 sub-basins and monthly MODIS NDVI data for three different types of vegetation (forest, shrub, and grass) were applied in the machine learning tool, Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis (WEKA), using two supervised machine learning algorithms, i.e., support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF). The assessment shows that different types of vegetation response and soil water content vary in the dry and wet seasons. The WEKA model generated high positive relationships (r = 0.76, 0.73, and 0.81) between NDVI values of all vegetation in the sub-basins against soil water content (SWC), the groundwater flow (GW), and the combination of these two variables, respectively, during the dry season. However, these responses were reduced by 36.8% (r = 0.48) and 13.6% (r = 0.63) against GW and SWC, respectively, in the wet season. Although the rainfall pattern is highly variable in the study area, the summer rainfall is very effective for the growth of the grass vegetation type. This study has enriched our knowledge of vegetation responses to groundwater in each season, which will facilitate better floodplain vegetation management.

Keywords: ArcSWAT, machine learning, floodplain vegetation, MODIS NDVI, groundwater

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Authors: B. Umaru Mohammed, Faris A. Al-Maziad, Mohammad Y. Numan

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One of the most important factors affecting the energy performance within a building is a carefully and efficiently designed facade. The primary aim of this research was to identify and present the potentiality of utilising Double-Skin Facade (DSF) construction and critically examine its effect on the energy consumption of an office building located within a maritime desert climate as to the conventional single-skin curtain wall system. A comparative analysis of the effect on the overall energy consumption within an office building was investigated in which a combination of various Double-Skin Facade configurations, systems, and cavity depths, glazing types and orientations were utilised. A computer dynamic modelling was utilised in order to ensure accurate calculations and efficient simulations of the various DSF systems due to the complex nature of the various functions within the Facade cavity. Through the use of the dynamic thermal modelling simulations, the best cavity size glazed type and orientation were determined to lead to a detailed analysis of the efficiency of each respective combination of Double-Skin Facade construction. As such the optimal facade combination for use within an office building located in a maritime desert climate was identified. Results demonstrated that a multi-story Facade, depending on its configuration, save up to 5% on annual cooling loads respect to a Corridor Facade and while vented can save unto 12% when compared to the single skin façade, on annual cooling load in the maritime desert climate. The selected configuration of the DSF from SSF saves an overall annual cooling load of 32%.A comparative analysis of the effect on the overall energy consumption within an office building was investigated in which a combination of various Double-Skin Facade configurations, systems, and cavity depths, glazing types and orientations were utilized. A computer dynamic modelling was utilized in order to ensure accurate calculations and efficient simulations of the various DSF systems due to the complex nature of the various functions within the Facade cavity. Through the use of the dynamic thermal modelling simulations, the best cavity size glazed type and orientation were determined to lead to a detailed analysis of the efficiency of each respective combination of Double-Skin Facade construction. As such the optimal facade combination for use within an office building located in a maritime desert climate was identified. Results demonstrated that a multi-story Facade, depending on its configuration, save up to 5% on annual cooling loads respect to a Corridor Facade and while vented can save unto 12% when compared to the single skin facade, on annual cooling load in the maritime desert climate. The selected configuration of the DSF from SSF saves an overall annual cooling load of 32%.

Keywords: computer dynamics modelling, comparative analysis, energy computation, double skin facade, single skin curtain wall, maritime desert climate

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Authors: Ozcan Yavas, Berrak Erol Nalbur, Sermin Gunarslan

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A materiality matrix is a tool that organizations use to prioritize their activities and adapt to the increasing sustainability requirements in recent years. For the materiality index to move from business models to the sustainability business model stage, it must be done with all partners in the raw material, supply, production, product, and end-of-life product stages. Within the scope of this study, the Materiality Matrix was used to transform the business model into a sustainability business model and to create a sustainability roadmap in a factory producing electric buses. This matrix determines the necessary roadmap for all stakeholders to participate in the process, especially in sectors that produce sustainable products, such as the electric vehicle sector, and to act together with the cradle-to-cradle approach of sustainability roadmaps. Global Reporting Initiative analysis was used in the study conducted with 1150 stakeholders within the scope of the study, and 43 questions were asked to the stakeholders under the main headings of 'Legal Compliance Level,' 'Environmental Strategies,' 'Risk Management Activities,' 'Impact of Sustainability Activities on Products and Services,' 'Corporate Culture,' 'Responsible and Profitable Business Model Practices' and 'Achievements in Leading the Sector' and Economic, Governance, Environment, Social and Other. The results of the study aimed to include five 1st priority issues and four 2nd priority issues in the sustainability strategies of the organization in the short and medium term. When the studies carried out in the short term are evaluated in terms of Sustainability and Environmental Risk Management, it is seen that the studies are still limited to the level of legal legislation (60%) and individual studies in line with the strategies (20%). At the same time, the stakeholders expect the company to integrate sustainability activities into its business model within five years (35%) and to carry out projects to become the first company that comes to mind with its success leading the sector (20%). Another result obtained within the study's scope is identifying barriers to implementation. It is seen that the most critical obstacles identified by stakeholders with climate change and environmental impacts are financial deficiency and lack of infrastructure in the dissemination of sustainable products. These studies are critical for transitioning to sustainable business models for the electric vehicle sector to achieve the EU Green Deal and CBAM targets.

Keywords: sustainability business model, materiality matrix, electricity bus, carbon neutrality, sustainability management

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Authors: Nazli Akhlaghinia, Ali Rajabzadeh Ghatari

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In today's world, with increasing environmental awareness, firms are facing severe pressure from various stakeholders, including the government and customers, to reduce their harmful effects on the environment. Over the past few decades, the increasing effects of global warming, climate change, waste, and air pollution have increased the global attention of experts to the issue of the green supply chain and led them to the optimal solution for greenery. Green supply chain management (GSCM) plays an important role in motivating the sustainability of the organization. With increasing environmental concerns, the main objective of the research is to use system thinking methodology and Vensim software for designing a dynamic system model for green supply chain and observing behaviors. Using this methodology, we look for the effects of a green supply chain structure on the behavioral dynamics of output variables. We try to simulate the complexity of GSCM in a period of 30 months and observe the complexity of behaviors of variables including sustainability, providing green products, and reducing energy consumption, and consequently reducing sample pollution.

Keywords: supply chain management, green supply chain management, system dynamics, energy consumption

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Authors: I. C. Tolias, A. G. Venetsanos, N. Markatos

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In the present work, CFD simulations of a large scale open deflagration experiment are performed. Stoichiometric hydrogen-air mixture occupies a 20 m hemisphere. Two combustion models are compared and are evaluated against the experiment. The Eddy Dissipation Model and a Multi-physics combustion model which is based on Yakhot’s equation for the turbulent flame speed. The values of models’ critical parameters are investigated. The effect of the turbulence model is also examined. k-ε model and LES approach were tested.

Keywords: CFD, deflagration, hydrogen, combustion model

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Authors: J. Rhodes, V. Cheng, P. Lok

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The aim of this study is to develop a parsimonious model that explains the effect of different stimulus on a tourist’s intention to visit a new destination. The model consists of destination trust and interest as the mediating variables. The model was tested using two different types of stimulus; both studies empirically supported the proposed model. Furthermore, the first study revealed that advertising has a stronger effect than positive online reviews. The second study found that the peripheral route of the elaboration likelihood model has a stronger influence power than the central route in this context.

Keywords: advertising, electronic word-of-mouth, elaboration likelihood model, intention to visit, trust

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Authors: Amidu Owolabi Ayeni

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Studies have shown that spatio-temporal distribution and variability of climatic variables, urban land use, and population have had substantial impact on water supply. It is based on these facts that the impacts of climate, urbanization, and population on water supply in Lagos State Nigeria remain the focus of this study. Population and water production data on Lagos State between 1963 and 2006 were collected, and used for time series and projection analyses. Multi-temporal land-sat images of 1975, 1995 and NigeriaSat-1 imagery of 2007 were used for land use change analysis. The population of Lagos State increased by about 557.1% between 1963 and 2006, correspondingly, safe water supply increased by 554%. Currently, 60% of domestic water use in urban areas of Lagos State is from groundwater while 75% of rural water is from unsafe surface water. Between 1975 and 2007, urban land use increased by about 235.9%. The 46years climatic records revealed that temperature and evaporation decreased slightly while rainfall and Relatively Humidity (RH) decreased consistently. Based on these trends, the Lagos State population and required water are expected to increase to about 19.8millions and 2418.9ML/D respectively by the year 2026. Rainfall is likely to decrease by -6.68mm while temperature will increase by 0.950C by 2026. Urban land use is expected to increase by 20% with expectation of serious congestion in the suburb areas. With these results, over 50% of the urban inhabitants will be highly water poor in future if the trends continue unabated.

Keywords: challenges, climate change, urbanization, water supply

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Authors: Shan Huang, Guanjun Huang, Yongjun Zeng, Haiyuan Wang

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The impacts of whole-growth warming on grain yield and quality in double rice cropping systems still remain largely unknown. In this study, a two-year field whole-growth warming experiment was conducted with two inbred indica rice cultivars (Zhongjiazao 17 and Xiangzaoxian 45) for early season and two hybrid indica rice cultivars (Wanxiangyouhuazhan and Tianyouhuazhan) for late season. The results showed that whole-growth warming did not affect early rice yield but significantly decreased late rice yield, which was caused by the decreased grain weight that may be related to the increased plant respiration and reduced translocation of dry matter accumulated during the pre-heading phase under warming. Whole-growth warming improved the milling quality of late rice but decreased that of early rice; however, the chalky rice rate and chalkiness degree were increased by 20.7% and 33.9% for early rice and 37.6 % and 51.6% for late rice under warming, respectively. We found that the crude protein content of milled rice was significantly increased by warming in both early and late rice, which would result in deterioration of eating quality. Besides, compared with the control treatment, the setback of late rice was significantly reduced by 17.8 % under warming, while that of early rice was not significantly affected by warming. These results suggest that the negative impacts of whole-growth warming on grain quality may be more severe in early rice than in late rice. Therefore, adaptation in both rice breeding and agronomic practices is needed to alleviate climate warming on the production of a double rice cropping system. Climate-smart agricultural practices ought to be implemented to mitigate the detrimental effects of warming on rice grain quality. For instance, fine-tuning the application rate and timing of inorganic nitrogen fertilizers, along with the introduction of organic amendments and the cultivation of heat-tolerant rice varieties, can help reduce the negative impact of rising temperatures on rice quality. Furthermore, to comprehensively understand the influence of climate warming on rice grain quality, future research should encompass a wider range of rice cultivars and experimental sites.

Keywords: climate warming, double rice cropping, dry matter, grain quality, grain yield

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Authors: Cheong Hyeon Oh, Dongho Nam, Byungsik Kim

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Due to the recent climate change, flood damage caused by local floods and typhoons has frequently occurred, the incidence rate and intensity of wildfires are greatly increased due to increased temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Wildfires cause primary damage, such as loss of forest resources, as well as secondary disasters, such as landslides, floods, and debris flow. In many countries around the world, damage and economic losses from secondary damage are occurring as well as the direct effects of forest fires. Therefore, in this study, the Rainfall-Runoff model(S-RAT) was used for the wildfire affected areas in Gangneung and Goseong, which occurred on April 2019, when the stability of vegetation and soil were destroyed by wildfires. Rainfall data from Typhoon Rusa were used in the S-RAT model, and flood discharge was calculated according to changes in land cover before and after wildfire damage. The results of the calculation showed that flood discharge increased significantly due to changes in land cover, as the increase in flood discharge increases the possibility of the occurrence of the debris flow and the extent of the damage, the debris flow height and range were calculated before and after forest fire using RAMMS. The analysis results showed that the height and extent of damage increased after wildfire, but the result value was underestimated due to the characteristics that using DEM and maximum flood discharge of the RAMMS model. This research was supported by a grant(2017-MOIS31-004) from Fundamental Technology Development Program for Extreme Disaster Response funded by Korean Ministry of Interior and Safety (MOIS). This paper work (or document) was financially supported by Ministry of the Interior and Safety as 'Human resoure development Project in Disaster management'.

Keywords: wildfire, debris flow, land cover, rainfall-runoff meodel S-RAT, RAMMS, height

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Authors: Ishita Singh

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Social-dimension of Climate Change is no longer peripheral to Science, Technology and Innovation (STI). Indeed, STI is being mobilized to address small farmers’ vulnerability and adaptation to Climate Change. The experiences from the cold desert of Leh (Ladakh) in North-West Himalaya illustrate the potential of STI to address the challenges of Climate Change and the needs of small farmers through the use of Artificial Glacier Techniques. Small farmers have a unique technique of water harvesting to augment irrigation, called “Artificial Glaciers” - an intricate network of water channels and dams along the upper slope of a valley that are located closer to villages and at lower altitudes than natural glaciers. It starts to melt much earlier and supplements additional irrigation to small farmers’ improving their livelihoods. Therefore, the issue of vulnerability, adaptive capacity and adaptation strategy needs to be analyzed in a local context and the communities as well as regions where people live. Leh (Ladakh) in North-West Himalaya provides a Case Study for exploring the ways in which adaptation to Climate Change is taking place at a community scale using Artificial Glacier Technology. With the above backdrop, an attempt has been made to analyze the rural poor households' vulnerability and adaptation practices to Climate Change using this technology, thereby drawing lessons on vulnerability-livelihood interactions in the cold desert of Leh (Ladakh) in North-West Himalaya, India. The study is based on primary data and information collected from 675 households confined to 27 villages of Leh (Ladakh) in North-West Himalaya, India. It reveals that 61.18% of the population is driving livelihoods from agriculture and allied activities. With increased irrigation potential due to the use of Artificial Glaciers, food security has been assured to 77.56% of households and health vulnerability has been reduced in 31% of households. Seasonal migration as a livelihood diversification mechanism has declined in nearly two-thirds of households, thereby improving livelihood strategies. Use of tactical adaptations by small farmers in response to persistent droughts, such as selling livestock, expanding agriculture lands, and use of relief cash and foods, have declined to 20.44%, 24.74% and 63% of households. However, these measures are unsustainable on a long-term basis. The role of policymakers and societal stakeholders becomes important in this context. To address livelihood challenges, the role of technology is critical in a multidisciplinary approach involving multilateral collaboration among different stakeholders. The presence of social entrepreneurs and new actors on the adaptation scene is necessary to bring forth adaptation measures. Better linkage between Science and Technology policies, together with other policies, should be encouraged. Better health care, access to safe drinking water, better sanitary conditions, and improved standards of education and infrastructure are effective measures to enhance a community’s adaptive capacity. However, social transfers for supporting climate adaptive capacity require significant amounts of additional investment. Developing institutional mechanisms for specific adaptation interventions can be one of the most effective ways of implementing a plan to enhance adaptation and build resilience.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, livelihood, stakeholders

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Authors: Ahmad Sarfaraz, Raiyad Herwies

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In this paper, a multi-criteria decision making analysis is used to help any organization selects the best KM tool that fits and serves its needs. The AHP model is used based on a previous study to highlight and identify the main criteria and sub-criteria that are incorporated in the selection process. Different KM tools alternatives with different criteria are compared and weighted accurately to be incorporated in the GP model. The main goal is to combine the GP model with the AHP model to ensure that selecting the KM tool considers the resource constraints. Two important issues are discussed in this paper: how different factors could be taken into consideration in forming the AHP model, and how to incorporate the AHP results into the GP model for better results.

Keywords: knowledge management, analytical hierarchy process, goal programming, multi-criteria decision making

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Authors: Majid Samiee Zenoozian

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This paper studies the susceptibility of local settlements in the gulf of Oman mangrove forest zone to flooding and progressesconsiderate of acuities and reactions to historical and present coastal flooding.it is indirect thaterosionsproduced in coastal zones by the change of mangrove undergrowthsubsequent from the enduring influence of persons since the late 19th century. Confronted with the increasing impact of climate change on climate ambitiousalarms such as flooding and biodiversity damage, handling the relationship between mangroves and their atmosphere has become authoritative for their defense. Coastal flood dangers are increasing quickly. We offer high resolution approximations of the financial value of mangroves forests for flood risk discount. We progress a probabilistic, process-based estimate of the properties of mangroves on avoidanceharms to people and property. More significantly, it also establishes how the incessantsqualor of this significant ecosystem has the potential to unfavorably influence the future cyclone persuadeddangers in the area.

Keywords: mangrove forest, coastal, flood, erosion

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Authors: Afifa Mohammed, Gloria Pignatta, Mattheos Santamouris, Evangelia Topriska

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Climate change is one of the global challenges that is exacerbated by the rapid growth of urbanizations. Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon can be considered as an effect of the urbanization and it is responsible together with the Climate change of the overheating of urban cities and downtowns. The purpose of this paper is to quantify and perform analysis of UHI Intensity in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), through checking the relationship between the UHI and different meteorological parameters (e.g., temperature, winds speed, winds direction). Climate data were collected from three meteorological stations in Dubai (e.g., Dubai Airport - Station 1, Al-Maktoum Airport - Station 2 and Saih Al-Salem - Station 3) for a period of five years (e.g., 2014 – 2018) based upon hourly rates, and following clustering technique as one of the methodology tools of measurements. The collected data of each station were divided into six clusters upon the winds directions, either from the seaside or from the desert side, or from the coastal side which is in between both aforementioned winds sources, to investigate the relationship between temperature degrees and winds speed values through UHI measurements for Dubai Airport - Station 1 compared with the same of Al-Maktoum Airport - Station 2. In this case, the UHI value is determined by the temperature difference of both stations, where Station 1 is considered as located in an urban area and Station 2 is considered as located in a suburban area. The same UHI calculations has been applied for Al-Maktoum Airport - Station 2 and Saih Salem - Station 3 where Station 2 is considered as located in an urban area and Station 3 is considered as located in a suburban area. The performed analysis aims to investigate the relation between the two environmental parameters (e.g., Temperature and Winds Speed) and the Urban Heat Island (UHI) intensity when the wind comes from the seaside, from the desert, and the remaining directions. The analysis shows that the correlation between the temperatures with both UHI intensity (e.g., temperature difference between Dubai Airport - Station 1 and Saih Al-Salem - Station 3 and between Al-Maktoum Airport - Station 2 and Saih Al-Salem - Station 3 (through station 1 & 2) is strong and has a negative relationship when the wind is coming from the seaside comparing between the two stations 1 and 2, while the relationship is almost zero (no relation) when the wind is coming from the desert side. The relation is independent between the two parameters, e.g., temperature and UHI, on Station 2, during the same procedures, the correlation between the urban heat island UHI phenomenon and wind speed is weak for both stations when wind direction is coming from the seaside comparing the station 1 and 2, while it was found that there’s no relationship between urban heat island phenomenon and wind speed when wind direction is coming from desert side. The conclusion could be summarized saying that the wind coming from the seaside or from the desert side have a different effect on UHI, which is strongly affected by meteorological parameters. The output of this study will enable more determination of UHI phenomenon under desert climate, which will help to inform about the UHI phenomenon and intensity and extract recommendations in two main categories such as planning of new cities and designing of buildings.

Keywords: meteorological data, subtropical desert climate, urban climate, urban heat island (UHI)

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Authors: Lu Zhao, Nadir Farhi, Yeltsin Valero, Zoi Christoforou, Nadia Haddadou

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In this paper, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model is proposed to replicate simultaneously car-following and lane-changing behaviors in road networks. By combining two kinds of LSTM layers and three input designs of the neural network, six variants of the LSTM model have been created. These models were trained and tested on the NGSIM 101 dataset, and the results were evaluated in terms of longitudinal speed and lateral position, respectively. Then, we compared the LSTM model with a classical car-following model (the intelligent driving model (IDM)) in the part of speed decision. In addition, the LSTM model is compared with a model using classical neural networks. After the comparison, the LSTM model demonstrates higher accuracy than the physical model IDM in terms of car-following behavior and displays better performance with regard to both car-following and lane-changing behavior compared to the classical neural network model.

Keywords: traffic modeling, neural networks, LSTM, car-following, lane-change

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Authors: S. da Costa, D. Páez, E. Martínez, A. Torres, M. Beramendi, D. Hermosilla, M. Muratori

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This study examined the association between creative performance, organizational climate and leadership, affectivity, shared flow, and group decision making. The sample consisted of 315 cadets of a military academic unit of South America. Satisfaction with the decision-making process during a creative task was associated with the usefulness and effectiveness of the ideas generated by the teams with a weighted average correlation of r = .18. Organizational emotional climate, positive and innovation leadership were associated with this group decision-making process r = .25, with shared flow, r = .29 and with positive affect felt during the performance of the creative task, r = .12. In a sequential mediational analysis positive organizational leadership styles were significantly associated with decision-making process and trough cohesion with utility and efficacy of the solution of a creative task. Satisfactory decision-making was related to shared flow during the creative task at collective or group level, and positive affect with flow at individual level.This study examined the association between creative performance, organizational climate and leadership, affectivity, shared flow, and group decision making. The sample consisted of 315 cadets of a military academic unit of South America. Satisfaction with the decision-making process during a creative task was associated with the usefulness and effectiveness of the ideas generated by the teams with a weighted average correlation of r = .18. Organizational emotional climate, positive and innovation leadership were associated with this group decision-making process r = .25, with shared flow, r = .29 and with positive affect felt during the performance of the creative task, r = .12. In a sequential mediational analysis positive organizational leadership styles were significantly associated with decision-making process and trough cohesion with utility and efficacy of the solution of a creative task. Satisfactory decision-making was related to shared flow during the creative task at collective or group level, and positive affect with flow at individual level.

Keywords: creativity, innovation, military, organization, teams

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: F. Z. Aliyat, M. El Guilli, L. Nassiri, J. Ibijbijen

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Climate change is becoming a crucial factor that can significantly impact all ecosystems. It has a negative impact on the environment in many parts of the planet. Agriculture is the main sector affected by climate change. Particularly, the salinity of agricultural soils is among the problems caused by climate change. The use of phosphate solubilizing bacteria (PSB) as a biofertilizer requires previous research on their tolerance to abiotic stress, specifically saline stress tolerance, before the formation of biofertilizers. In this context, the main goal of this research was to assess the salinity tolerance of four strains: Serratia rubidaea strain JCM1240, Enterobacter bugandensis strain 247BMC, Pantoea agglomerans strain ATCC 27155, Pseudomonas brassicacearum subsp. Neoaurantiaca strain CIP109457, which was isolated from solid phosphate sludge. Additionally, their capacity to solubilize potassium and zinc, as well as their effect on Wheat (Triticum Durum 'Karim') germination. The four PSB strains were tested for their ability to solubilize phosphate in NBRIP medium with tricalcium phosphate (TCP) as the sole source of phosphorus under salt stress. Five concentrations of NaCl were used (0%, 0.5%, 1%, 2.5%, 5%). Their phosphate solubilizing activity was estimated by the vanadate-molybdate method. The potassium and zinc solubilization has been tested qualitatively and separately on solid media with mica and zinc oxide as the only sources of potassium and zinc, respectively. The result showed that the solubilization decreases with the increase in the concentration of NaCl; all the strains solubilize the TCP even with 5% NaCl, with a significant difference among the four strains. The Serratia rubidaea strain was the most tolerant strain. In addition, the four strains solubilize the potassium and the zinc. The Serratia rubidaea strain was the most efficient. Therefore, biofertilization with PSB salt-tolerant strains could be a climate-change-preparedness strategy for agriculture in salt soil.

Keywords: bioavailability of mineral nutrients, phosphate solid sludge; phosphate solubilization, potassium solubilization, salt stress, zinc solubilization.

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Authors: Zografou Konstantina, Anagnostellis Konstantinos, Brokaki Marina, Kaltsouni Eleftheria, Dimaki Maria, Kati Vassiliki

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Body size is crucial to ecology, influencing everything from individual reproductive success to the dynamics of communities and ecosystems. Understanding how temperature affects variations in body size is vital for both theoretical and practical purposes, as changes in size can modify trophic interactions by altering predator-prey size ratios and changing the distribution and transfer of biomass, which ultimately impacts food web stability and ecosystem functioning. Notably, a decrease in body size is frequently mentioned as the third "universal" response to climate warming, alongside shifts in distribution and changes in phenology. This trend is backed by ecological theories like the temperature-size rule (TSR) and Bergmann's rule, which have been observed in numerous species, indicating that many species are likely to shrink in size as temperatures rise. However, the thermal responses related to body size are still contradictory, and further exploration is needed. To tackle this challenge, we developed the MEIOSIS project, aimed at providing valuable insights into the relationship between the body size of species, species’ traits, environmental factors, and their response to climate change. We combined a digitized collection of butterflies from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich with our newly digitized butterfly collection from Goulandris Natural History Museum in Greece to analyse trends in time. For a total of 23868 images, the length of the right forewing was measured using ImageJ software. Each forewing was measured from the point at which the wing meets the thorax to the apex of the wing. The forewing length of museum specimens has been shown to have a strong correlation with wing surface area and has been utilized in prior studies as a proxy for overall body size. Temperature data corresponding to the years of collection were also incorporated into the datasets. A second dataset was generated when a custom computer vision tool was implemented for the automated morphological measuring of samples for the digitized collection in Zürich. Using the second dataset, we corrected manual measurements with ImageJ, and a final dataset containing 31922 samples was used for analysis. Setting time as a smoother variable, species identity as a random factor, and the length of right-wing size (a proxy for body size) as the response variable, we ran a global model for a maximum period of 110 years (1900 – 2010). Then, we investigated functional variability between different terrestrial biomes in a second model. Both models confirmed our initial hypothesis and resulted in a decreasing trend in body size over the years. We expect that this first output can be provided as basic data for the next challenge, i.e., to identify the ecological traits that influence species' temperature-size responses, enabling us to predict the direction and intensity of a species' reaction to rising temperatures more accurately.

Keywords: butterflies, shrinking body size, museum specimens, climate change

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Authors: Wen-Juinn Chen, Yi-Phei Chou, Jou-Han Wang

Abstract:

Tainan coast is suffering from beach erosion, wave overtopping, and lowland flooding; though most of the shoreline has been protected by seawalls, they still threatened by sea level rise. For coastal resources developing, coastal land utilization, and to draft an appropriate mitigate strategy. Firstly; we must assess the impact of beach erosion under a different scenario of climate change. Here, we have used the meteorological data since 1898 to 2012 to prove that the Tainan area did suffer the impact of climate change. The result shows the temperature has been raised to about 1.7 degrees since 1989. Also, we analyzed the tidal data near the Tainan coast (Anpin site and Junjunn site), it shows sea level rising with a rate about 4.1~4.8 mm/year, this phenomenon will have serious impacts on Tainan coastal area, especially it will worsen coastal erosion. So we have used Bruun rule to calculate the shoreline retreated rate at every two decade period since 2012. Wave data and bottom sand diameter D50 were used to calculate the closure depth that will be used in Bruun formula and the active length of the profile is computed by the beach slope and Dean's equilibrium concept. After analysis, we found that in 2020, the shoreline will be retreated about 3.0 to 12 meters. The maximum retreat is happening at Chigu coast. In 2060, average shoreline retreated distance is 22m, but at Chigu and Tsenwen, shoreline may be backward retreat about 70m and will be reached about 130m at 2100, this will cause a lot of coastal land loss to the sea, protect and mitigate project must be quickly performed.

Keywords: sea level rise, shoreline, coastal erosion, climate change

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Authors: Coskun Serefoglu

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The study aims to analyse how a traditional sector such as agri-food could be mobilized through regional innovation strategies. A principal component analysis as well as qualitative information, such as in-depth interviews, focus group and surveys, were employed to find the priority sectors. An agri-food model was developed which includes both a linear model and interactive model. The model consists of two main components, one of which is technological integration and the other one is agricultural extension which is based on Land-grant university approach of U.S. which is not a common practice in Turkey.

Keywords: regional innovation strategy, interactive model, agri-food sector, local development, planning, regional development

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Authors: Sasiporn Rattanasupha, Settapat Chinviriyasit

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The treatment function adopts a continuous and differentiable function which can describe the effect of delayed treatment when the number of infected individuals increases and the medical condition is limited. In this paper, the SEIR epidemic model with treatment function is studied to investigate the dynamics of the model due to the effect of treatment. It is assumed that the treatment rate is proportional to the number of infective patients. The stability of the model is analyzed. The model is simulated to illustrate the analytical results and to investigate the effects of treatment on the spread of infection.

Keywords: basic reproduction number, local stability, SEIR epidemic model, treatment function

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Authors: Temple Probyne Abali

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Port Harcourt, Rivers State in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria is bedeviled by the phenomenon of climatechange, posing threat to food security and livelihood. This study examined a 4 decadel (1980-2020) trend of climate change as well as its socio-economic impact on food security in the region. Furthermore, to achieve sustainable food security and livelihood amidst the phenomenon, the study adopted the World Bank Assisted Third National Fadama Development Programme approach. The data source for climate change involved secondary data from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET). Consequently, the results for climate change over the 4decade period were displayed in tables, charts and maps for the expected changes. Data sources on socio-economic impact of food security and livelihood were acquired through questionnairedesign. A purposive random sampling technique was used in selecting 5 coastal communities inthe region known for viable economic potentials for agricultural development and the resultswere analyzed using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). The Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) technique of the World Bank for needs assessment wasadopted in selecting 5 agricultural sub-project proposals/activities based on groups’ commoneconomic interest from a total of 1,000 farmers each drawn from the 5 communities of differentage groups including men, women, youths and the vulnerable. Based on the farmers’ sub-projectinterests, the various groups’ Strength, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT), Problem Listing Matrix, Skill Gap Analysis as well as EIAson their sub-project proposals/activities were analyzed with substantialMonitoring and Evaluation (M & E), using the Specific, Measurable, Attribute, Reliable and Time bound (SMART)approach. Based on the findings from the PRA technique, the farmers recorded considerableincreaseinincomeofover200%withinthe5yearprojectplan(2008-2013).Thestudyrecommends capacity building and advisory services on this PRA innovation. By so doing, there would be a sustainable increase in agricultural production and assured food security in an environmental friendly manner, in line with the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).

Keywords: climate change, food security, fadama, world bank, agriculture, sdgs

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Authors: Gideon Baffoe, Hirotaka Matsuda

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Rural livelihood systems are known to be inherently vulnerable. Attempt to reduce vulnerability is linked to developing resilience to both internal and external shocks, thereby increasing the overall sustainability of livelihood systems. The shocks and stresses could be induced by natural processes such as the climate and/or by social dynamics such as institutional failure. In this wise, livelihood vulnerability is understood as a combined effect of biophysical, economic, and social processes. However, previous empirical studies on livelihood vulnerability in the context of rural areas across the globe have tended to focus more on climate-induced vulnerability assessment with few studies empirically partially considering the multiple dimensions of livelihood vulnerability. This has left a gap in our understanding of the subject. Using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), this study aims to comprehensively assess the livelihood vulnerability level of rural households using Ehiamenkyene, a community in the forest zone of Eastern Ghana as a case study. Though the present study adopts the LVI approach, it differs from the original framework in two respects; (1) it introduces institutional influence into the framework and (2) it appreciates the gender differences in livelihood vulnerability. The study utilized empirical data collected from 110 households’ in the community. The overall study results show a high livelihood vulnerability situation in the community with male-headed households likely to be more vulnerable than their female counterparts. Out of the seven subcomponents assessed, only two (socio-demographic profile and livelihood strategies) recorded low vulnerability scores of less than 0.5 with the remaining five (health status, food security, water accessibility, institutional influence and natural disasters and climate variability) recording scores above 0.5, with institutional influence being the component with the highest impact score. The results suggest that to improve the livelihood conditions of the people; there is the need to prioritize issues related to the operations of both internal and external institutions, health status, food security, water and climate variability in the community.

Keywords: assessment, gender, livelihood, rural, vulnerability

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Authors: Noah G. Akhimien, Eshrar Latif

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The natural environment is in need for an urgent rescue due to dilapidation and recession of resources. Passive design strategies have proven to be one of the effective ways to reduce CO₂ emissions and to improve building performance. On the other hand, there is a huge drop in material availability due to poor recycling culture. Consequently, building waste pose environmental hazard due to unrecycled building materials from construction and deconstruction. Buildings are seen to be material banks for a circular economy, therefore incorporating circular economy into passive housing will not only safe guide the climate but also improve resource efficiency. The study focuses on incorporating a circular economy in passive design strategies for an affordable energy and resource efficient residential building in Nigeria. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration is still on the increase as buildings are responsible for a significant amount of this emission globally. Therefore, prompt measures need to be taken to combat the effect of global warming and associated threats. Nigeria is rapidly growing in human population, resources on the other hand have receded greatly, and there is an abrupt need for recycling even in the built environment. It is necessary that Nigeria responds to these challenges effectively and efficiently considering building resource and energy. Passive design strategies were assessed using simulations to obtain qualitative and quantitative data which were inferred to case studies as it relates to the Nigeria climate. Building materials were analysed using the ReSOLVE model in order to explore possible recycling phase. This provided relevant information and strategies to illustrate the possibility of circular economy in passive buildings. The study offers an alternative approach, as it is the general principle for the reworking of an economy on ecological lines in passive housing and by closing material loops in circular economy.

Keywords: building, circular, efficiency, environment, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 253

Authors: Ballout Amor, Yasmina Bouchahm, Lacheheb Dhia Eddine Zakaria

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Several studies all around the world were conducted on the phenomenon of the urban heat island, and referring to the results obtained, one of the most important factors that influence this phenomenon is the mineralization of the cities which means the reducing of evaporative urban surfaces, replacing vegetation and wetlands with concrete and asphalt. The use of vegetation and water can change the urban environment and improve comfort, thus reduce the heat island. The trees act as a mask to the sun, wind, and sound, and also as a source of humidity which reduces air temperature and surrounding surfaces. Water also acts as a buffer to noise; it is also a source of moisture and regulates temperature not to mention the psychological effect on humans. Our main objective in this paper is to determine the impact of vegetation, ponds and fountains on the urban micro climate in general and on the thermal comfort of people along the Independence square in the Algerian city of Sétif, which is a semi-arid climate, in particularly. In order to reach this objective, a comparative study between different scenarios has been done; the use of the Envi-met program enabled us to model the urban environment of the Independence Square and to study the possibility of improving the conditions of comfort by adding an amount of vegetation and water ponds. After studying the results obtained (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, PMV and PPD indicators), the efficiency of the additions we've made on the square was confirmed and this is what helped us to confirm our assumptions regarding the terms of comfort in the studied site, and in the end we are trying to develop recommendations and solutions which may contribute to improve the conditions for greater comfort in the Independence square.

Keywords: comfort in outer space, urban environment, scenarisation, vegetation, water ponds, public square, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 454

Authors: Nadjib Drouiche

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Water resources in Algeria are scarce, often low quality, fragile, and unevenly distributed in space and time. The pressure on water resources can be associated with industrial development, a steady population growth, and demanding land irrigation measures. These conditions createa tense competitionfor managing waterresourcesand sharing thembetween agricultural development, drinking water supply, industrial activities, etc. Moreover, the impact of climate change has placed in the forefront national policies focused on the water-energy-food nexus (WEF). In this context, desalination membrane technologies could play an increasing rolefor supporting segments of the Algerian economy that are heavily water-dependent. By implementing water reuse and desalination strategies together in the agricultural sector, there is an opportunity to expand the access to healthy food and clean water, thereby keeping the WEF nexus effects under control.

Keywords: desalination, mitigation, climate change, sustainable development goals

Procedia PDF Downloads 98