Search results for: Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rates

Authors: A. Majeed, P. Ali

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Before designing an electrical system, the estimation of load is necessary for unit sizing and demand-generation balancing. The system could be a stand-alone system for a village or grid connected or integrated renewable energy to grid connection, especially as there are non–electrified villages in developing countries. In the classical model, the energy demand was found by estimating the household appliances multiplied with the amount of their rating and the duration of their operation, but in this paper, information exists for electrified villages could be used to predict the demand, as villages almost have the same life style. This paper describes a method used to predict the average energy consumed in each two months for every consumer living in a village by Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The input data are collected using a regional survey for samples of consumers representing typical types of different living, household appliances and energy consumption by a list of information, and the output data are collected from administration office of Piramagrun for each corresponding consumer. The result of this study shows that the average demand for different consumers from four villages in different months throughout the year is approximately 12 kWh/day, this model estimates the average demand/day for every consumer with a mean absolute percent error of 11.8%, and MathWorks software package MATLAB version 7.6.0 that contains and facilitate Neural Network Toolbox was used.

Keywords: artificial neural network, load estimation, regional survey, rural electrification

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Authors: Sukhbaatar Dorj, Erdenebaatar Altangerel

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As alternative to existing e-government measuring models, here proposed a new customer centric, service oriented, simple approach for measuring countries e-Governments. If successfully implemented, built infrastructure will provide a single e-government index number for countries. Main schema is as follows. Country CIO or equal position government official, at the beginning of each year will provide to United Nations dedicated web site 4 numbers on behalf of own country: 1) Ratio of available online public services, to total number of public services, 2) Ratio of interagency inter ministry online public services to total number of available online public services, 3) Ratio of total number of citizen and business entities served online annually to total number of citizen and business entities served annually online and physically on those services, 4) Simple index for geographical spread of online served citizen and business entities. 4 numbers then combined into one index number by mathematical Average function. In addition to 4 numbers 5th number can be introduced as service quality indicator of online public services. If in ordering of countries index number is equal, 5th criteria will be used. Notice: This approach is for country’s current e-government achievement assessment, not for e-government readiness assessment.

Keywords: countries e-government index, e-government, infrastructure for measuring e-government, measuring e-government

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Authors: Dekie Rawung, Abdul L. Abadi, Toto Himawan, Siegfried Berhimpon

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A case study on consumer' knowledge, attitude, and behavior on food safety issue related to pesticide residues in cabbage was conducted in the area of Manado and Tomohon city, North Sulawesi. A sample of 150 consumers were selected randomly on location (open market and supermarket) while they were purchasing vegetables. The data on consumers’ perception, knowledge, attitude and behavior on food safety issue regarding pesticide residues were collected using a 5-point, two-section Likert-Scale questionnaire, and the relationship of knowledge, attitude, and behavior on food safety issues were analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). It was found that, among many food safety issues, the illegal, non-food chemical preservatives were considered the most important one (by more than 35% respondents), followed by high cholesterol content and textile coloring chemical (> 27% respondents). The pesticide residues issue was only in the 4th place. The same results were seen on the issue of quality factors that determine the product selection during purchasing. The pesticide-free and organic products labels were considered much less important quality factors as compared with freshness and nutrition value which were considered the most and the second most important quality factors (almost 65% of respondents). SEM analysis showed that only knowledge and attitude on food safety that had the significant relation (coefficient value of 0.38), whereas those with behaviors were not significant.

Keywords: cabbage, consumer, food safety, pesticide residues

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Authors: Molla Tadesse Lakew

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This study was intended to identify the factors influencing the use of mobile phones in vegetable marketing in Fogera district. The use of mobile phones in vegetable marketing and factors influencing mobile phone use were specific objectives of the study. Three kebeles from the Fogera district were selected purposively based on their vegetable production potential. A simple random sampling technique (lottery method) was used to select 153 vegetable producer farmers. Interview schedule and key informants interviews were used to collect primary data. For analyzing the data, descriptive statistics like frequency and percentage, two independent t-tests, and chi-square were used. Furthermore, econometric analysis (binary logistic model) was used to assess the factors influencing mobile phone use for vegetable market information. Contingency coefficient and variance inflation factor were used to check multicollinearity problems between the independent variables. Of 153 respondents, 82 (61.72%) were mobile phone users, while 71 (38.28 %) were mobile phone nonusers. Moreover, the main use of mobile phones in vegetable marketing includes communicating at a distance to save time and minimizing transport costs, getting vegetable marketing price information, identifying markets and buyers to sell the vegetable, deciding when to sell the vegetable, negotiating with buyers for better vegetable prices and for searching of the fast market to avoid from losing of product through perishing. The model result indicated that the level of education, size of land, income, access to credit, and age were significant variables affecting the use of mobile phones in vegetable marketing. It could be recommended to encourage adult education or give training for farmers on how to operate mobile phones and create awareness for the elderly rural farmers as they are able to use the mobile phone for their vegetable marketing. Moreover, farmers should be aware that mobile phones are very important for those who own very small land to get maximum returns from their production. Lastly, providing access to credit and improving and diversifying income sources for the farmers to have mobile phones were recommended to improve the livelihood of farmers.

Keywords: mobile phone, farmers, vegetable marketing, Fogera District

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Authors: Eduardo Costa

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Hospital strikes in the Portuguese National Health Service (NHS) are becoming increasingly frequent, raising concerns in what respects patient safety. In fact, data shows that mortality rates for patients admitted during strikes are up to 30% higher than for patients admitted in other days. This paper analyses the effects of hospital strikes on patients’ outcomes. Specifically, it analyzes the impact of different strikes (physicians, nurses and other health professionals), on in-hospital mortality rates, readmission rates and length of stay. The paper uses patient-level data containing all NHS hospital admissions in mainland Portugal from 2012 to 2017, together with a comprehensive strike dataset comprising over 250 strike days (19 physicians-strike days, 150 nurses-strike days and 50 other health professionals-strike days) from 135 different strikes. The paper uses a linear probability model and controls for hospital and regional characteristics, time trends, and changes in patients’ composition and diagnoses. Preliminary results suggest a 6-7% increase in in-hospital mortality rates for patients exposed to physicians’ strikes. The effect is smaller for patients exposed to nurses’ strikes (2-5%). Patients exposed to nurses strikes during their stay have, on average, higher 30-days urgent readmission rates (4%). Length of stay also seems to increase for patients exposed to any strike. Results – conditional on further testing, namely on non-linear models - suggest that hospital operations and service levels are partially disrupted during strikes.

Keywords: health sector strikes, in-hospital mortality rate, length of stay, readmission rate

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Authors: Ezgi Kaya, A. Dilek Maden

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A topological index is a number related to graph which is invariant under graph isomorphism. In theoretical chemistry, molecular structure descriptors (also called topological indices) are used for modeling physicochemical, pharmacologic, toxicologic, biological and other properties of chemical compounds. Let G be a graph with n vertices and m edges. For a given edge uv, the quantity nu(e) denotes the number of vertices closer to u than v, the quantity nv(e) is defined analogously. The vertex PI index defined as the sum of the nu(e) and nv(e). Here the sum is taken over all edges of G. The energy of a graph is defined as the sum of the eigenvalues of adjacency matrix of G and the Laplacian energy of a graph is defined as the sum of the absolute value of difference of laplacian eigenvalues and average degree of G. In theoretical chemistry, the π-electron energy of a conjugated carbon molecule, computed using the Hückel theory, coincides with the energy. Hence results on graph energy assume special significance. The Laplacian matrix of a graph G weighted by the vertex PI weighting is the Laplacian vertex PI matrix and the Laplacian vertex PI eigenvalues of a connected graph G are the eigenvalues of its Laplacian vertex PI matrix. In this study, Laplacian vertex PI energy of a graph is defined of G. We also give some bounds for the Laplacian vertex PI energy of graphs in terms of vertex PI index, the sum of the squares of entries in the Laplacian vertex PI matrix and the absolute value of the determinant of the Laplacian vertex PI matrix.

Keywords: energy, Laplacian energy, laplacian vertex PI eigenvalues, Laplacian vertex PI energy, vertex PI index

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Authors: Silvia A. Magalhaes, Vasco P. De Freitas, Jose L. Alexandre

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Most of the European literature concerning energy efficiency and thermal comfort of dwellings assumes permanent heating and focuses on energy-saving measures. European National regulations are designed for those permanent comfort conditions. On the other hand, very few studies focus on the effect of the improvement measures in comfort reduction, for free-floating conditions or intermittent heating, in fuel poverty vulnerable countries. In Portugal, only 21% of the household energy consumptions (and 10% of the cost) are spent in space heating, while, on average European bills, this value rises to 67%. The mild climate, but mainly fuel poverty and cultural background, justifies these low heating practices. This study proposes a “passive discomfort” index definition, considering free-floating temperatures or with intermittent heating profiles (more realistic conditions), putting the focus on comfort rather than energy consumption (which is low for these countries). The aim is to compare both energy (regarding the legal framework of national regulation) and comfort (considering realistic conditions of use) to identify some correlation. It was developed an experimental campaign of indoor thermal conditions in a 19th building located in Porto with several apartments. One dwelling was chosen as a case study to carry out a sensitivity analysis. The results are discussed comparing both theoretical energy consumption (energy rates from national regulation) and discomfort (new index defined), for different insulation thicknesses, orientations, and intermittent heating profiles. The results show that the different passive options (walls insulation and glazing options) have a small impact on winter discomfort, which is always high for low heating profiles. Moreover, it was shown that the insulation thickness on walls has no influence, and the minimum insulation thickness considered is enough to achieve the same impact on discomfort reduction. Plus, for these low heating profiles, other conditions are critical, as the orientation. Finally, there isn’t an unequivocal relation between the energy label and the discomfort index. These and other results are surprising when compared with the most usual approaches, which assume permanent heating.

Keywords: dwellings in historical buildings, low-heating countries, mild climates, thermal comfort

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Authors: Keiko Naito, Y. Nakashima, S. Yamauchi, Y. Kunitani, Y. Ishigami, K. Numata, M. Mizobe, Y. Homma, J. Takahashi, T. Inoue, T. Shiga, H. Funakoshi

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Background: A presence of severe acidemia, defined as pH < 7.2, is common during endotracheal intubation for critically ill patients in the emergency department (ED). Severe acidemia is widely recognized as a predisposing factor for intubation failure. However, it is unclear that acidemic condition itself actually makes endotracheal intubation more difficult. We aimed to evaluate if a presence of severe acidemia before intubation is associated with the lower first attempt intubation success rate in the ED. Methods: This is a retrospective observational cohort study in the ED of an urban hospital in Japan. The collected data included patient demographics, such as age, sex, and body mass index, presence of one or more factors of modified LEMON criteria for predicting difficult intubation, reasons for intubation, blood gas levels, airway equipment, intubation by emergency physician or not, and the use of the rapid sequence intubation technique. Those with any of the following were excluded from the analysis: (1) no blood gas drawn before intubation, (2) cardiopulmonary arrest, and (3) under 18 years of age. The primary outcome was the first attempt intubation success rates between a severe acidemic patients (SA) group and a non-severe acidemic patients (NA) group. Logistic regression analysis was used to test the first attempt success rates for intubations between those two groups. Results: Over 5 years, a total of 486 intubations were performed; 105 in the SA group and 381 in the NA group. The univariate analysis showed that the first attempt intubation success rate was lower in the SA group than in the NA group (71.4% vs 83.5%, p < 0.01). The multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that severe acidemia was significantly associated with the first attempt intubation failure (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.03-3.68, p = 0.04). Conclusions: A presence of severe acidemia before endotracheal intubation lowers the first attempt intubation success rate in the ED.

Keywords: acidemia, airway management, endotracheal intubation, first-attempt intubation success rate

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Authors: Janne Engblom, Elias Oikarinen

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A panel dataset is one that follows a given sample of individuals over time, and thus provides multiple observations on each individual in the sample. Panel data models include a variety of fixed and random effects models which form a wide range of linear models. A special case of panel data models are dynamic in nature. A complication regarding a dynamic panel data model that includes the lagged dependent variable is endogeneity bias of estimates. Several approaches have been developed to account for this problem. In this paper, the panel models were estimated using the Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond Generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator which is an extension of the Arellano-Bond model where past values and different transformations of past values of the potentially problematic independent variable are used as instruments together with other instrumental variables. The Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond estimator augments Arellano–Bond by making an additional assumption that first differences of instrument variables are uncorrelated with the fixed effects. This allows the introduction of more instruments and can dramatically improve efficiency. It builds a system of two equations—the original equation and the transformed one—and is also known as system GMM. In this study, Finnish housing price dynamics were examined empirically by using the Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond estimation technique together with ordinary OLS. The aim of the analysis was to provide a comparison between conventional fixed-effects panel data models and dynamic panel data models. The Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond estimator is suitable for this analysis for a number of reasons: It is a general estimator designed for situations with 1) a linear functional relationship; 2) one left-hand-side variable that is dynamic, depending on its own past realizations; 3) independent variables that are not strictly exogenous, meaning they are correlated with past and possibly current realizations of the error; 4) fixed individual effects; and 5) heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation within individuals but not across them. Based on data of 14 Finnish cities over 1988-2012 differences of short-run housing price dynamics estimates were considerable when different models and instrumenting were used. Especially, the use of different instrumental variables caused variation of model estimates together with their statistical significance. This was particularly clear when comparing estimates of OLS with different dynamic panel data models. Estimates provided by dynamic panel data models were more in line with theory of housing price dynamics.

Keywords: dynamic model, fixed effects, panel data, price dynamics

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Authors: Nicola Rubino

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This paper presents an analysis of a group of commodity exporting countries' nominal exchange rate movements in relationship to the US dollar. Using a series of Unrestricted Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive models (SETAR), we model and evaluate sixteen national CPI price differentials relative to the US dollar CPI. Out-of-sample forecast accuracy is evaluated through calculation of mean absolute error measures on the basis of two-hundred and fifty-three months rolling window forecasts and extended to three additional models, namely a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTAR), an additive non linear autoregressive model (AAR) and a simple linear Neural Network model (NNET). Our preliminary results confirm presence of some form of TAR non linearity in the majority of the countries analyzed, with a relatively higher goodness of fit, with respect to the linear AR(1) benchmark, in five countries out of sixteen considered. Although no model appears to statistically prevail over the other, our final out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that SETAR models tend to have quite poor relative forecasting performance, especially when compared to alternative non-linear specifications. Finally, by analyzing the implied half-lives of the > coefficients, our results confirms the presence, in the spirit of arbitrage band adjustment, of band convergence with an inner unit root behaviour in five of the sixteen countries analyzed.

Keywords: transition regression model, real exchange rate, nonlinearities, price differentials, PPP, commodity points

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Authors: Ilma Robo, Saimir Heta, Nedja Hysi, Vera Ostreni

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Introduction: Marginal gingivitis is a disease with considerable frequency among patients who present routinely for periodontal control and treatment. In fact, this disease may not have alarming symptoms in patients and may go unnoticed by themselves when personal hygiene conditions are optimal. The aim of this study was to collect retrograde data on the prevalence of marginal gingiva in the respective group of patients, evaluated according to specific periodontal diagnostic tools. Materials and methods: The study was conducted in two patient groups. The first group was with 34 patients, during December 2019-January 2020, and the second group was with 64 patients during 2010-2018 (each year in the mentioned monthly period). Bacterial plaque index, hemorrhage index, amount of gingival fluid, presence of xerostomia and candidiasis were recorded in patients. Results: Analysis of the collected data showed that susceptibility to marginal gingivitis shows higher values according to retrograde data, compared to cross-sectional ones. Susceptibility to candidiasis and the occurrence of xerostomia, even in the combination of both pathologies, as risk factors for the occurrence of marginal gingivitis, show higher values ​​according to retrograde data. The female are presented with a reduced bacterial plaque index than the males, but more importantly, this index in the females is also associated with a reduced index of gingival hemorrhage, in contrast to the males. Conclusions: Cross-sectional data show that the prevalence of marginal gingivitis is more reduced, compared to retrograde data, based on the hemorrhage index and the bacterial plaque index together. Changes in production in the amount of gingival fluid show a higher prevalence of marginal gingivitis in cross-sectional data than in retrograde data; this is based on the sophistication of the way data are recorded, which evolves over time and also based on professional sensitivity to this phenomenon.

Keywords: marginal gingivitis, cross-sectional, retrograde, prevalence

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Authors: Fathi Abid, Bilel Kaffel

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The olive tree, the olive harvest during winter season and the production of olive oil better known by professionals under the name of the crushing operation have interested institutional traders such as olive-oil offices and private companies such as food industry refining and extracting pomace olive oil as well as export-import public and private companies specializing in olive oil. The major problem facing producers of olive oil each winter campaign, contrary to what is expected, it is not whether the harvest will be good or not but whether the sale price will allow them to cover production costs and achieve a reasonable margin of profit or not. These questions are entirely legitimate if we judge by the importance of the issue and the heavy complexity of the uncertainty and competition made tougher by a high level of indebtedness and the experience and expertise of speculators and producers whose objectives are sometimes conflicting. The aim of this paper is to study the formation mechanism of olive oil prices in order to learn about speculators’ behavior and expectations in the market, how they contribute by their industry knowledge and their financial alliances and the size the financial challenge that may be involved for them to build private information hoses globally to take advantage. The methodology used in this paper is based on two stages, in the first stage we study econometrically the formation mechanisms of olive oil price in order to understand the market participant behavior by implementing ARMA, SARMA, GARCH and stochastic diffusion processes models, the second stage is devoted to prediction purposes, we use a combined wavelet- ANN approach. Our main findings indicate that olive oil market participants interact with each other in a way that they promote stylized facts formation. The unstable participant’s behaviors create the volatility clustering, non-linearity dependent and cyclicity phenomena. By imitating each other in some periods of the campaign, different participants contribute to the fat tails observed in the olive oil price distribution. The best prediction model for the olive oil price is based on a back propagation artificial neural network approach with input information based on wavelet decomposition and recent past history.

Keywords: olive oil price, stylized facts, ARMA model, SARMA model, GARCH model, combined wavelet-artificial neural network, continuous-time stochastic volatility mode

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Authors: Mathewos Temesgen, Lemi Geleta

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Lake Koka is one of the Ethiopian Central Rift Valleys lakes, where the absorbance of domestic, agricultural, and industrial waste from the nearby industrial and agro-industrial activities is very common. The aim of this research was to assess the heavy metal bioaccumulation in edible parts of common carp (Cyprinus carpio) in Lake Koka and the health risks associated with the dietary intake of the fish. Three sampling sites were selected randomly for primary data collection. Physicochemical parameters (pH, Total Dissolved Solids, Dissolved Oxygen and Electrical Conductivity) were measured in-situ. Four heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Pb, and Zn) in water and bio-accumulation in the edible parts of the fish were analyzed with flame atomic absorption spectrometry. The mean values of TDS, EC, DO and pH of the lake water were 458.1 mg/L, 905.7 µ s/cm, 7.36 mg/L, and 7.9, respectively. The mean concentrations of Zn, Cr, and Cd in the edible part of fish were also 0.18 mg/kg, ND-0.24 mg/kg, and ND-0.03 mg/kg, respectively. Pb was, however, not identified. The amount of Cr in the examined fish muscle was above the level set by FAO, and the accumulation of the metals showed marked differences between sampling sites (p<0.05). The concentrations of Cd, Pb and were below the maximum permissible limit. The results also indicated that Cr has a high transfer factor value and Zn has the lowest. The carcinogenic hazard ratio values were below the threshold value (<1) for the edible parts of fish. The estimated weekly intake of heavy metals from fish muscles ranked as Cr>Zn>Cd, but the values were lower than the Reference Dose limit for metals. The carcinogenic risk values indicated a low health risk due to the intake of individual metals from fish. Furthermore, the hazard index of the edible part of fish was less than unity. Generally, the water quality is not a risk for the survival and reproduction of fish, and the heavy metal contents in the edible parts of fish exhibited low carcinogenic risk through the food chain.

Keywords: bio-accumulation, cyprinus carpio, hazard index, heavy metals, Lake Koka

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Authors: Joanna Stawska

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The main objective of this article is to examine the impact of interest rates on investments in Poland in the context of financial crisis. The paper also investigates the dependence of bank loans to enterprises on interbank market rates. The article studies the impact of interbank market rate on the level of investments in Poland. Besides, this article focuses on the research of the correlation between the level of corporate loans and the amount of investments in Poland in order to determine the indirect impact of central bank interest rates through the transmission mechanism of monetary policy on the real economy. To achieve the objective we have used econometric and statistical research methods like: econometric model and Pearson correlation coefficient. This analysis suggests that the central bank reference rate inversely proportionally affects the level of investments in Poland and this dependence is moderate. This is also important issue because it is related to preparing of Poland to accession to euro area. The research is important from both theoretical and empirical points of view. The formulated conclusions and recommendations determine the practical significance of the paper which may be used in the decision making process of monetary and economic authorities of the country.

Keywords: central bank, financial crisis, interest rate, investments

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Authors: Kwok W. Mui, Ling T. Wong, Tsz W. Tsang

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Many Hong Kong people nowadays spend most of their lifetime working indoor. Since poor Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) potentially leads to discomfort, ill health, low productivity and even absenteeism in workplaces, a call for establishing statutory IAQ control to safeguard the well-being of residents is urgently required. Although policies, strategies, and guidelines for workplace IAQ diagnosis have been developed elsewhere and followed with remedial works, some of those workplaces or buildings have relatively late stage of the IAQ problems when the investigation or remedial work started. Screening for IAQ problems should be initiated as it will provide information as a minimum provision of IAQ baseline requisite to the resolution of the problems. It is not practical to sample all air pollutants that exit. Nevertheless, as a statutory control, reliable, rapid screening is essential in accordance with a compromise strategy, which balances costs against detection of key pollutants. This study investigates the feasibility of using an IAQ index as a parameter of IAQ control in Hong Kong. The index is a screening parameter to identify the unsatisfactory workplace IAQ and will highlight where a fully effective IAQ monitoring and assessment is needed for an intensive diagnosis. There already exist a number of representative common indoor pollutants based on some extensive IAQ assessments. The selection of pollutants is surrogate to IAQ control consists of dilution, mitigation, and emission control. The IAQ Index and assessment will look at high fractional quantities of these common measurement parameters. With the support of the existing comprehensive regional IAQ database and the IAQ Index by the research team as the pre-assessment probability, and the unsatisfactory IAQ prevalence as the post-assessment probability from this study, thresholds of maintaining the current measures and performing a further IAQ test or IAQ remedial measures will be proposed. With justified resources, the proposed IAQ Index and assessment protocol might be a useful tool for setting up a practical public IAQ surveillance programme and policy in Hong Kong.

Keywords: assessment, index, indoor air quality, surveillance programme

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Authors: S. Murr, S. Phillips

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One of the biggest challenges entering a market with a carsharing or any other shared mobility (SM) service is sound investment decision-making. To support this process, the authors think that a city index evaluating different criteria is necessary. The goal of such an index is to benchmark cities along a set of external measures to answer the main two challenges: financially viability and the understanding of its specific requirements. The authors have consulted several shared mobility projects and industry experts to create such a Shared Mobility City Index (SMCI). The current proposal of the SMCI consists of 11 individual index measures: general data (demographics, geography, climate and city culture), shared mobility landscape (current SM providers, public transit options, commuting patterns and driving culture) and political vision and goals (vision of the Mayor, sustainability plan, bylaws/tenders supporting SM). To evaluate the suitability of the index, 16 cities on the East Coast of North America were selected and secondary research was conducted. The main sources of this study were census data, organisational records, independent press releases and informational websites. Only non-academic sources where used because the relevant data for the chosen cities is not published in academia. Applying the index measures to the selected cities resulted in three major findings. Firstly, density (city area divided by number of inhabitants) is not an indicator for the number of SM services offered: the city with the lowest density has five bike and carsharing options. Secondly, there is a direct correlation between commuting patterns and how many shared mobility services are offered. New York, Toronto and Washington DC have the highest public transit ridership and the most shared mobility providers. Lastly, except one, all surveyed cities support shared mobility with their sustainability plan. The current version of the shared mobility index is proving a practical tool to evaluate cities, and to understand functional, political, social and environmental considerations. More cities will have to be evaluated to refine the criteria further. However, the current version of the index can be used to assess cities on their suitability for shared mobility services and will assist investors deciding which city is a financially viable market.

Keywords: carsharing, transportation, urban planning, shared mobility city index

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Authors: Yongrong Liu, Xin Tang

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Background: Persistent atrial fibrillation is a common arrhythmia closely related to heart failure. Heart rate control is an essential strategy for treating persistent atrial fibrillation. Still, the understanding of the relationship between different heart rate control levels and the risk of heart failure rehospitalization is limited. Objective: The objective of the study is to determine the relationship between different levels of heart rate control in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation and the risk of readmission for heart failure. Methods: We conducted a retrospective dual-centre cohort study, collecting data from patients with persistent atrial fibrillation who received outpatient treatment at two tertiary hospitals in central and western China from March 2019 to March 2020. The collected data included age, gender, body mass index (BMI), medical history, and hospitalization frequency due to heart failure. Patients were divided into three groups based on their heart rate control levels: Group I with a resting heart rate of less than 80 beats per minute, Group II with a resting heart rate between 80 and 100 beats per minute, and Group III with a resting heart rate greater than 100 beats per minute. The readmission rates due to heart failure within one year after discharge were statistically analyzed using propensity score matching in a 1:1 ratio. Differences in readmission rates among the different groups were compared using one-way ANOVA. The impact of varying levels of heart rate control on the risk of readmission for heart failure was assessed using the Cox proportional hazards model. Binary logistic regression analysis was employed to control for potential confounding factors. Results: We enrolled a total of 1136 patients with persistent atrial fibrillation. The results of the one-way ANOVA showed that there were differences in readmission rates among groups exposed to different levels of heart rate control. The readmission rates due to heart failure for each group were as follows: Group I (n=432): 31 (7.17%); Group II (n=387): 11.11%; Group III (n=317): 90 (28.50%) (F=54.3, P<0.001). After performing 1:1 propensity score matching for the different groups, 223 pairs were obtained. Analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model showed that compared to Group I, the risk of readmission for Group II was 1.372 (95% CI: 1.125-1.682, P<0.001), and for Group III was 2.053 (95% CI: 1.006-5.437, P<0.001). Furthermore, binary logistic regression analysis, including variables such as digoxin, hypertension, smoking, coronary heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as independent variables, revealed that coronary heart disease and COPD also had a significant impact on readmission due to heart failure (p<0.001). Conclusion: The correlation between the heart rate control level of patients with persistent atrial fibrillation and the risk of heart failure rehospitalization is positive. Reasonable heart rate control may significantly reduce the risk of heart failure rehospitalization.

Keywords: heart rate control levels, heart failure rehospitalization, persistent atrial fibrillation, retrospective cohort study

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Authors: P. Nayak, Shakeel Shaikh

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In this paper, we analyse the apparel export performance of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the world market. The study covers the 2003-2012 period at the sector as well as product levels (6 digit HS) and analysis is based HS 2002 nomenclature. We measure export similarity among Southeast Asian nations for the apparel sector (two digit HS-61 & 62), besides analysing the products performance in the world through Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) technique. Coupled with RCA, the price as a factor of competitiveness was examined from the available Unit Value Realizations (UVR). Further to this, the resource availability or outsourced from the region was considered as an extension to the analysis of competitiveness between the nations. With the help of these methodologies, we examine the degree of competition between the exports of southeast nations in the world market. Our results show that Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam are well performing states within ASEAN. The paper further delves into sustainability of the export performing countries within ASEAN.

Keywords: export competitiveness, export similarity index, revealed comparative advantage, unit value realisation

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Authors: Badr A. Al-Jehani

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Nowadays, contractor selection is a critical activity of the project owner. Selecting the right contractor is essential to the project manager for the success of the project, and this cab happens by using the proper selecting method. Traditionally, the contractor is being selected based on his offered bid price. This approach focuses only on the price factor and forgetting other essential factors for the success of the project. In this research paper, the Analytic Network Process (ANP) method is used as a decision tool model to select the most appropriate contractor. This decision-making method can help the clients who work in the construction industry to identify contractors who are capable of delivering satisfactory outcomes. Moreover, this research paper provides a case study of selecting the proper contractor among three contractors by using ANP method. The case study identifies and computes the relative weight of the eight criteria and eleven sub-criteria using a questionnaire.

Keywords: contractor selection, project management, decision-making, bidding

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Authors: L. S. Godlevsky, N. V. Kresyun, V. P. Martsenyuk, K. S. Shakun, T. V. Tatarchuk, K. O. Prybolovets, L. F. Kalinichenko, M. Karpinski, T. Gancarczyk

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Structures of eye bottom were extracted using multiscale texture gradient method and color characteristics of macular zone and vessels were verified in CIELAB scale. The difference of average values of L*, a* and b* coordinates of CIE (International Commision of Illumination) scale in patients with diabetes and healthy volunteers was compared. The average value of L* in diabetic patients exceeded such one in the group of practically healthy persons by 2.71 times (P < 0.05), while the value of a* index was reduced by 3.8 times when compared with control one (P < 0.05). b* index exceeded such one in the control group by 12.4 times (P < 0.05). The integrated index on color difference (ΔE) exceeded control value by 2.87 times (P < 0.05). More pronounced differences with ΔE were followed by a shorter period of MA appearance with a correlation level at -0.56 (P < 0.05). The specificity of diagnostics raised by 2.17 times (P < 0.05) and negative prognostic index exceeded such one determined with the expert method by 2.26 times (P < 0.05).

Keywords: diabetic retinopathy, multiscale texture gradient, color spectrum analysis, medical diagnostics

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Authors: Rodrigo Arnaldo Scarpel

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Trend following is a widely accepted investment strategy that adopts a rule-based trading mechanism that rather than striving to predict market direction or on information gathering to decide when to buy and when to sell a stock. Thus, in trend following one must respond to market’s movements that has recently happen and what is currently happening, rather than on what will happen. Optimally, in trend following strategy, is to catch a bull market at its early stage, ride the trend, and liquidate the position at the first evidence of the subsequent bear market. For applying the trend following strategy one needs to find the trend and identify trade signals. In order to avoid false signals, i.e., identify fluctuations of short, mid and long terms and to separate noise from real changes in the trend, most academic works rely on moving averages and other technical analysis indicators, such as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and the relative strength index (RSI) to uncover intelligible stock trading rules following trend following strategy philosophy. Recently, some works has applied machine learning techniques for trade rules discovery. In those works, the process of rule construction is based on evolutionary learning which aims to adapt the rules to the current environment and searches for the global optimum rules in the search space. In this work, instead of focusing on the usage of machine learning techniques for creating trading rules, a time series trend classification employing a semi-supervised approach was used to early identify both the beginning and the end of upward and downward trends. Such classification model can be employed to identify trade signals and the decision-making procedure is that if an up-trend (down-trend) is identified, a buy (sell) signal is generated. Semi-supervised learning is used for model training when only part of the data is labeled and Semi-supervised classification aims to train a classifier from both the labeled and unlabeled data, such that it is better than the supervised classifier trained only on the labeled data. For illustrating the proposed approach, it was employed daily trade information, including the open, high, low and closing values and volume from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2022, of the São Paulo Exchange Composite index (IBOVESPA). Through this time period it was visually identified consistent changes in price, upwards or downwards, for assigning labels and leaving the rest of the days (when there is not a consistent change in price) unlabeled. For training the classification model, a pseudo-label semi-supervised learning strategy was used employing different technical analysis indicators. In this learning strategy, the core is to use unlabeled data to generate a pseudo-label for supervised training. For evaluating the achieved results, it was considered the annualized return and excess return, the Sortino and the Sharpe indicators. Through the evaluated time period, the obtained results were very consistent and can be considered promising for generating the intended trading signals.

Keywords: evolutionary learning, semi-supervised classification, time series data, trading signals generation

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Authors: Ashwini Kumar, Vinod Nayak, Shankar M. Bakkannavar

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The identification of humans is important in forensic investigations not only in living but also in dead, especially in cases of mass disorders. The procedure followed in dead known as post-mortem identification is a challenging task for the forensic pathologist. However, it is mandatory in terms of the law to fulfill the social norms. Many times, due to mutilation of body parts, the normal methods of identification using skeletal remains cannot be used in the process of identification. In such cases, the intact components of the skeletal remains or bony parts play an important role in identification. In these situations, digital forensics can come to our rescue. The authors hereby made a study for determination of sex based on nasal index by using (Big Bore 16 Slice) Multidetector Computed Tomography 2D Scans. The results are represented as a poster.

Keywords: sex determination, multidetector computed tomography, nasal index, digital forensic

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Authors: Sara D. Garduno-Diaz, Philippe Y. Garduno-Diaz

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To date, one of the few comprehensive indicators for the measurement of food security is the Global Food Security Index. This index is a dynamic quantitative and qualitative bench marking model, constructed from 28 unique indicators, that measures drivers of food security across both developing and developed countries. Whereas the Global Food Security Index has been calculated across a set of 109 countries, in this paper we aim to present and compare, for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), 1) the Food Security Index scores achieved and 2) the data available on affordability, availability, and quality of food. The data for this work was taken from the latest (2014) report published by the creators of the GFSI, which in turn used information from national and international statistical sources. According to the 2014 Global Food Security Index, MENA countries rank from place 17/109 (Israel, although with resent political turmoil this is likely to have changed) to place 91/109 (Yemen) with household expenditure spent in food ranging from 15.5% (Israel) to 60% (Egypt). Lower spending on food as a share of household consumption in most countries and better food safety net programs in the MENA have contributed to a notable increase in food affordability. The region has also however experienced a decline in food availability, owing to more limited food supplies and higher volatility of agricultural production. In terms of food quality and safety the MENA has the top ranking country (Israel). The most frequent challenges faced by the countries of the MENA include public expenditure on agricultural research and development as well as volatility of agricultural production. Food security is a complex phenomenon that interacts with many other indicators of a country’s well-being; in the MENA it is slowly but markedly improving.

Keywords: diet, food insecurity, global food security index, nutrition, sustainability

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Authors: Luz Hurtado, Rodrigo Rojas, Jaime Romero, Christopher Concha

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The culture of the marine fish red cusk eel Genypterus chilensis is currently considered a priority for Chilean aquaculture which is a Chilean native species of high gastronomic demand and market value. The microbiota was analyzed in terms of diversity and structure using massive Illumina sequencing. The analysis of alpha diversity was performed in samples of G. chilensis larvae of 6, 18 and 32 dph (days post-hatching) and it was observed that there were significant differences (P = 0.05) between the days of culture for the Chao1 index, being the larvae of 18 dph the one with the highest index followed by the larvae of 6 dph, The lowest value for this index was presented in larvae of 32 dph. There were no significant differences in larvae between the days of culture for the Shannon (P=0.0857) and Simpson (P=0.0714) indices. In general, the larvae of G. chilensis have high rates of diversity. When analyzing the beta diversity, a differentiation between the bacterial communities is observed depending on the day of the culture of the larvae. Considering the PCoA elaborated from the unweighted UniFrac statistic, the explained variance was 46.2% (PC1 29.2% and PC2 17.0%) and in the case of the PCoA elaborated with the weighted UniFrac statistic; the explained variance was 65.5% (PC1 41.8% and PC2 23.7%) these differences were significant based on the Permanova statistical analysis (P= 0.002 and 0.037 respectively). When analyzing the taxonomic composition of the microbiota of the larvae in the different days of culture it was observed that at the phyla level the most abundant in the larvae of 6 dph were Proteobacteria (57%) Verrucomicrobia (24%) and Firmicutes (14%), for the larvae of 18 dph the predominant phyla were Proteobacteria (90%), Dependientiae (5%), Actinobacteria (2%) and Plactomyces (2%), for the larvae of 32 dph the phyla that presented the highest relative abundance were Proteobacteria (57%), Firmicutes (29%), Verrucomicrobia (5%) and Actinobacteria (5%), when comparing the larvae between the days it was observed that the phylum Proteobacteria was the most abundant in the samples of larvae of 6, 18 and 32 dph being the larvae of 18 dph those that present the highest relative abundance, the larvae of 6 dph were those that presented the highest relative abundance for the phylum Verrucomicrobia and in the larvae of 32 dph was observed greater abundance of the phylum Firmicutes compared to the other days of larval culture. At the level of genera, those with the highest relative abundance in larvae of 6 dph were Rubritalea (30%), Psychrobacter (28%), staphylococcus (17%) and Ralstonia (10%), for the larvae of 18 dph the genera with the highest abundance were Psychrobacter (47%), Litoreibacter (13%), Nautella (9%) and Cohesibacter (8%), for the larvae of 32 dph the most abundant genera were Alloiococcus (25%), Dialister (14%), Neptunomonas (13%) and Piscirickettsia (11%). When observing the taxonomic composition of the larvae between the days of larval culture, it is observed that there are differences between them.

Keywords: microbiota, diversity, G. Chilensis, larvae

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Authors: Palwinder Bhatia

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As all know new media is a broad term in media studies that emerged in the latter part of the 20th century which refers to on-demand access to content any time, anywhere, on any digital device, as well as interactive user feedback, creative participation and community formation around the media content. The role of new media in advertisement is impeccable these days. It becomes the cheap and best way of advertising. Another important promise of new media is the democratization of the creation, publishing, distribution and consumption of media content. New media brings a revolution in about every field. It makes bridge between customer and companies. World make a global village with the only help of new media. Advertising helps in shaping the consumer behavior and effect on consumer psychology, sociology, social anthropology and economics. People do comments and like the particular brands on the networking sites which create mesmerism impact on the behavior of customer. Recent study did by Times of India shows that 64% of Facebook users have liked a brand on Facebook.

Keywords: film, visual, culture, media, advertisement

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Authors: Fiyinfoluwa Giwa, Nicholas Ngepah

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This paper investigates the relationship between the Fourth Industrial Revolution and food security in South Africa. The Ordinary Least Square was adopted from 2012 Q1 to 2021 Q4. The study used artificial intelligence investment and the food production index as the measure for the fourth industrial revolution and food security, respectively. Findings reveal a significant and positive coefficient of 0.2887, signifying a robust statistical relationship between AI adoption and the food production index. As a policy recommendation, this paper recommends the introduction of incentives for farmers and agricultural enterprises to adopt AI technologies -and the expansion of digital connectivity and access to technology in rural areas.

Keywords: Fourth Industrial Revolution, food security, artificial intelligence investment, food production index, ordinary least square

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Authors: J. Wicks

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Aim: To develop a simple methodology to allow collected heart rate (HR) data from inexpensive wearable devices to be expressed in a suitable format (METs) to quantitate occupational (and recreational) activity. Introduction: Assessment of occupational activity is commonly done by utilizing questionnaires in combination with prescribed MET levels of a vast range of previously measured activities. However for any individual the intensity of performing a specific activity can vary significantly. Ideally objective measurement of individual activity is preferred. Though there are a wide range of HR recording devices there is a distinct lack methodology to allow processing of collected data to quantitate energy expenditure (EE). The HR index equation expresses METs in relation to relative HR i.e. the ratio of activity HR to resting HR. The use of this equation provides a simple utility for objective measurement of EE. Methods: During a typical occupational work period of approximately 8 hours HR data was recorded using a Polar RS 400 wrist monitor. Recorded data was downloaded to a Windows PC and non HR data was stripped from the ASCII file using ‘Notepad’. The HR data was exported to a spread sheet program and sorted by HR range into a histogram format. Three HRs were determined, namely a resting HR (the HR delimiting the lowest 30 minutes of recorded data), a mean HR and a peak HR (the HR delimiting the highest 30 minutes of recorded data). HR indices were calculated (mean index equals mean HR/rest HR and peak index equals peak HR/rest HR) with mean and peak indices being converted to METs using the HR index equation. Conclusion: Inexpensive HR recording devices can be utilized to make reasonable estimates of occupational (or recreational) EE suitable for large scale demographic screening by utilizing the HR index equation. The intrinsic value of the HR index equation is that it is independent of factors that influence absolute HR, namely fitness, smoking and beta-blockade.

Keywords: energy expenditure, heart rate histograms, heart rate index, occupational activity

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Authors: Mustafa Metin Donma, Orkide Donma

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Vitamin deficiencies are common in obese individuals. Particularly, the status of vitamin B12 and its association with vitamin B9 (folate) and vitamin D is under investigation in recent time. Vitamin B12 is closely related to many vital processes in the body. In clinical studies, its involvement in fat metabolism draws attention from the obesity point of view. Obesity, in its advanced stages and in combination with metabolic syndrome (MetS) findings, may be a life-threatening health problem. Pediatric obesity is particularly important because it may be a predictor of severe chronic diseases during the adulthood period of the child. Due to its role in fat metabolism, vitamin B12 deficiency may disrupt metabolic pathways of the lipid and energy metabolisms in the body. The association of low B12 levels with obesity degree may be an interesting topic to be investigated. Obesity indices may be helpful at this point. Weight- and fat-based indices are available. Of them, body mass index (BMI) is in the first group. Fat mass index (FMI), fat-free mass index (FFMI) and diagnostic obesity notation model assessment-II (D2I) index lie in the latter group. The aim of this study is to clarify possible associations between vitamin B12 status and obesity indices in the pediatric population. The study comprises a total of one hundred and twenty-two children. Thirty-two children were included in the normal body mass index (N-BMI) group. Forty-six and forty-four children constitute groups with morbid obese children without MetS and with MetS, respectively. Informed consent forms and the approval of the institutional ethics committee were obtained. Tables prepared for obesity classification by World Health Organization were used. Metabolic syndrome criteria were defined. Anthropometric and blood pressure measurements were taken. Body mass index, FMI, FFMI, D2I were calculated. Routine laboratory tests were performed. Vitamin B9, B12, D concentrations were determined. Statistical evaluation of the study data was performed. Vitamin B9 and vitamin D levels were reduced in MetS group compared to children with N-BMI (p>0.05). Significantly lower values were observed in vitamin B12 concentrations of MetS group (p<0.01). Upon evaluation of blood pressure as well as triglyceride levels, there exist significant increases in morbid obese children. Significantly decreased concentrations of high density lipoprotein cholesterol were observed. All of the obesity indices and insulin resistance index exhibit increasing tendency with the severity of obesity. Inverse correlations were calculated between vitamin D and insulin resistance index as well as vitamin B12 and D2I in morbid obese groups. In conclusion, a fat-based index, D2I, was the most prominent body index, which shows a strong correlation with vitamin B12 concentrations in the late stage of obesity in children. A negative correlation between these two parameters was a confirmative finding related to the association between vitamin B12 and obesity degree.

Keywords: body mass index, children, D2I index, fat mass index, obesity

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Authors: D. Berg, N. Hartley, L. Nasr

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This paper presents a conceptual model of human-robot interaction within service encounters and the effect on the well-being of both consumers and service providers. In this paper, service providers are those employees who work alongside frontline service robots. The significance of this paper lies in the knowledge created which outlines how frontline service robots can be effectively utilized in service encounters for the benefit of organizations and society as a whole. As this paper is conceptual in nature, the main methodologies employed are theoretical, namely problematization and theory building. The significance of this paper is underpinned by the shift of service robots from manufacturing plants and factory floors to consumer-facing service environments. This service environment places robots in direct contact with frontline employees and consumers creating a hybrid workplace where humans work alongside service robots. This change from back-end to front-end roles may have implications not only on the physical environment, servicescape, design, and strategy of service offerings and encounters but also on the human parties of the service encounter itself. Questions such as ‘how are frontline service robots impacting and changing the service encounter?’ and ‘what effect are such changes having on the well-being of the human actors in a service encounter?’ spring to mind. These questions form the research question of this paper. To truly understand social service robots, an interdisciplinary perspective is required. Besides understanding the function, system, design or mechanics of a service robot, it is also necessary to understand human-robot interaction. However not simply human-robot interaction, but particularly what happens when such robots are placed in commercial settings and when human-robot interaction becomes consumer-robot interaction and employee-robot interaction? A service robot in this paper is characterized by two main factors; its social characteristics and the consumer-facing environment within which it operates. The conceptual framework presented in this paper contributes to interdisciplinary discussions surrounding social robotics, service, and technology’s impact on consumer and service provider well-being, and hopes that such knowledge will help improve services, as well as the prosperity and well-being of society.

Keywords: frontline service robots, human-robot interaction, service encounters, well-being

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Authors: Lyndsey Kim

Abstract:

We utilized country-level data on suicide rates from 1985 through 2015 provided by the WHO to explore global trends as well as country-specific trends. First, we find that up until 1995, there was an increase in suicide rates globally, followed by a steep decline in deaths. This observation is largely driven by the data from Europe, where suicides are prominent but steadily declining. Second, men are more likely to commit suicide than women across the world over the years. Third, the older generation is more likely to commit suicide than youth and adults. Finally, we turn to Durkheim’s theory and use it as a lens to understand trends in suicide across time and countries and attempt to identify social and economic events that might explain patterns that we observe. For example, we discovered a drastically different pattern in suicide rates in the US, with a steep increase in suicides in the early 2000s. We hypothesize this might be driven by both the 9/11 attacks and the recession of 2008.

Keywords: suicide trends, current events, data analysis, world health organization, durkheim theory

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