Search results for: serious games common aspects

Authors: Buket Celik Ünal, Onur Ünal

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Communication is the most challenging part of maintenance operations. Communication between expert and fieldworker is crucial for effective maintenance and this also affects the safety of the fieldworkers. To support a machine user in a remote collaborative physical task, both, a mobile and a stationary device are needed. Such a system is called a shared vision system and the system supports two people to solve a problem from different places. This system reduces the errors and provides a reliable support for qualified and less qualified users. Through this research, it was aimed to validate the effectiveness of using a shared vision system to facilitate communication between on-site workers and those issuing instructions regarding maintenance or inspection works over long distances. The system is designed with head-worn display which is called a shared vision system. As a part of this study, a substitute system is used and implemented by using a shared vision system for maintenance operation. The benefits of the use of a shared vision system are analyzed and results are adapted to the wind turbines to improve the occupational safety and health for maintenance technicians. The motivation for the research effort in this study can be summarized in the following research questions: -How can expert support technician over long distances during maintenance operation? -What are the advantages of using a shared vision system? Experience from the experiment shows that using a shared vision system is an advantage for both electrical and mechanical system failures. Results support that the shared vision system can be used for wind turbine maintenance and repair tasks. Because wind turbine generator/gearbox and the substitute system have similar failures. Electrical failures, such as voltage irregularities, wiring failures and mechanical failures, such as alignment, vibration, over-speed conditions are the common and similar failures for both. Furthermore, it was analyzed the effectiveness of the shared vision system by using a smart glasses in connection with the maintenance task performed by a substitute system under four different circumstances, namely by using a shared vision system, an audio communication, a smartphone and by yourself condition. A suitable method for determining dependencies between factors measured in Chi Square Test, and Chi Square Test for Independence measured for determining a relationship between two qualitative variables and finally Mann Whitney U Test is used to compare any two data sets. While based on this experiment, no relation was found between the results and the gender. Participants` responses confirmed that the shared vision system is efficient and helpful for maintenance operations. From the results of the research, there was a statistically significant difference in the average time taken by subjects on works using a shared vision system under the other conditions. Additionally, this study confirmed that a shared vision system provides reduction in time to diagnose and resolve maintenance issues, reduction in diagnosis errors, reduced travel costs for experts, and increased reliability in service.

Keywords: communication support, maintenance and inspection tasks, occupational health and safety, shared vision system

Procedia PDF Downloads 249

Authors: Meiyan Gao, Zongmin Wang, Haibo Yang, Qiuhua Liang

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Under the background of global climate change and rapid development of modern urbanization, the frequency of climate disasters such as extreme precipitation in cities around the world is gradually increasing. In this paper, Hi-PIMS model is used to simulate the "720" flood in Zhengzhou, and the continuous stages of flood resilience are determined with the urban flood stages are divided. The flood resilience curve under the influence of multiple factors were determined and the urban flood toughness was evaluated by combining the results of resilience curves. The flood resilience of urban unit grid was evaluated based on economy, population, road network, hospital distribution and land use type. Firstly, the rainfall data of meteorological stations near Zhengzhou and the remote sensing rainfall data from July 17 to 22, 2021 were collected. The Kriging interpolation method was used to expand the rainfall data of Zhengzhou. According to the rainfall data, the flood process generated by four rainfall events in Zhengzhou was reproduced. Based on the results of the inundation range and inundation depth in different areas, the flood process was divided into four stages: absorption, resistance, overload and recovery based on the once in 50 years rainfall standard. At the same time, based on the levels of slope, GDP, population, hospital affected area, land use type, road network density and other aspects, the resilience curve was applied to evaluate the urban flood resilience of different regional units, and the difference of flood process of different precipitation in "720" rainstorm in Zhengzhou was analyzed. Faced with more than 1,000 years of rainstorm, most areas are quickly entering the stage of overload. The influence levels of factors in different areas are different, some areas with ramps or higher terrain have better resilience, and restore normal social order faster, that is, the recovery stage needs shorter time. Some low-lying areas or special terrain, such as tunnels, will enter the overload stage faster in the case of heavy rainfall. As a result, high levels of flood protection, water level warning systems and faster emergency response are needed in areas with low resilience and high risk. The building density of built-up area, population of densely populated area and road network density all have a certain negative impact on urban flood resistance, and the positive impact of slope on flood resilience is also very obvious. While hospitals can have positive effects on medical treatment, they also have negative effects such as population density and asset density when they encounter floods. The result of a separate comparison of the unit grid of hospitals shows that the resilience of hospitals in the distribution range is low when they encounter floods. Therefore, in addition to improving the flood resistance capacity of cities, through reasonable planning can also increase the flood response capacity of cities. Changes in these influencing factors can further improve urban flood resilience, such as raise design standards and the temporary water storage area when floods occur, train the response speed of emergency personnel and adjust emergency support equipment.

Keywords: urban flood resilience, resilience assessment, hydrodynamic model, resilience curve

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Authors: Andrew Read, Alice Parry, Kate Woods

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Since the advent of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the search for medications that can reduce mortality and morbidity has been a global research priority. Several multi-center trials have recently demonstrated improved mortality associated with the use of Tocilizumab, an interleukin-6 receptor antagonist, in patients with severe SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. Initial data supported the administration in patients requiring respiratory support (non-invasive or invasive ventilation), but more recent data has shown benefit in all hypoxic patients. At the height of the second wave of COVID-19 infections in London, our hospital introduced the use of Tocilizumab for patients with severe COVID-19. Tocilizumab is licensed for use in chronic inflammatory conditions and has been associated with an increased risk of severe bacterial and fungal infections, as well as reactivation of chronic viral infections (e.g., hepatitis B). It is a specialist drug that suppresses the formation of C-reactive protein (CRP) for 6 – 12 weeks. It is not widely used by the general medical community. We aimed to assess Tocilizumab use in our hospital and to implement changes to the protocol as required to ensure administration was safe and appropriate. A retrospective study design was used to assess prescriptions over an initial 3-week period in both intensive care and on the medical wards. This amounted to a total of 13 patients. The initial data collection identified four key areas of concern: adherence to national and local inclusion & exclusion criteria; a collection of appropriate screening blood prior to administration; documentation of informed consent or best interest decision and documentation of Tocilizumab administration on patient discharge information, to alert future healthcare providers that typical measures of inflammation and infection, such as CRP, are unreliable for up to 3-months. Data were collected from electronic notes, blood results and observation charts, and cross referenced with pharmacy data. Initial results showed that all four key areas were completed in approximately 50% of cases. Of particular concern was adherence to exclusion criteria, such as current evidence of bacterial infection, and ensuring the correct screening blood was sent to exclude infections such as hepatitis. To remedy this and improve patient safety, the initial data was presented to relevant healthcare professionals. Subsequently, three interventions were introduced and education on each provided to hospital staff. An electronic ‘order set’ collating the appropriate screening blood was created simplifying the screening process. Pre-formed electronic documentation which can be inserted into the notes was created to provide a framework for consent discussions and reduce the time needed for junior doctors to complete this task. Additionally, a ‘Tocilizumab’ administration card was created and administered via pharmacy. This was distributed to each patient on discharge to ensure future healthcare professionals were aware of the potential effects of Tocilizumab administration, including suppression of CRP. Following these changes, repeat data collection over two months illustrated that each of the 4 safety aspects was met with a 100% success rate in every patient. Although this demonstrates good progress and effective interventions the challenge will be to maintain this progress. The audit data collection is ongoing

Keywords: education, patient safety , SARS-CoV-2, Tocilizumab

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Authors: Daniela Manila Bianchi, Samantha Lupi, Elisa Barcucci, Sandra Fragassi, Clara Tramuta, Lucia Decastelli

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Introduction: The undeclared allergens detection in food products plays a fundamental role in the safety of the allergic consumer. The protection of allergic consumers is guaranteed, in Europe, by Regulation (EU) No 1169/2011 of the European Parliament, which governs the consumer's right to information and identifies 14 food allergens to be mandatorily indicated on food labels: among these, an egg is included. An egg can be present as an ingredient or as contamination in raw and cooked products. The main allergen egg proteins are ovomucoid, ovalbumin, lysozyme, and ovotransferrin. This study presents the results of a survey conducted in Northern Italy aimed at detecting the presence of undeclared egg proteins in food matrices in the latest ten years (2011-2021). Method: In the period January 2011 - October 2021, a total of 1205 different types of food matrices (ready-to-eat, meats, and meat products, bakery and pastry products, baby foods, food supplements, pasta, fish and fish products, preparations for soups and broths) were delivered to Food Control Laboratory of Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale of Piemonte Liguria and Valle d’Aosta to be analyzed as official samples in the frame of Regional Monitoring Plan of Food Safety or in the contest of food poisoning. The laboratory is ISO 17025 accredited, and since 2019, it has represented the National Reference Centre for the detection in foods of substances causing food allergies or intolerances (CreNaRiA). All samples were stored in the laboratory according to food business operator instructions and analyzed within the expiry date for the detection of undeclared egg proteins. Analyses were performed with RIDASCREEN®FAST Ei/Egg (R-Biopharm ® Italia srl) kit: the method was internally validated and accredited with a Limit of Detection (LOD) equal to 2 ppm (mg/Kg). It is a sandwich enzyme immunoassay for the quantitative analysis of whole egg powder in foods. Results: The results obtained through this study showed that egg proteins were found in 2% (n. 28) of food matrices, including meats and meat products (n. 16), fish and fish products (n. 4), bakery and pastry products (n. 4), pasta (n. 2), preparations for soups and broths (n.1) and ready-to-eat (n. 1). In particular, in 2011 egg proteins were detected in 5% of samples, in 2012 in 4%, in 2013, 2016 and 2018 in 2%, in 2014, 2015 and 2019 in 3%. No egg protein traces were detected in 2017, 2020, and 2021. Discussion: Food allergies occur in the Western World in 2% of adults and up to 8% of children. Allergy to eggs is one of the most common food allergies in the pediatrics context. The percentage of positivity obtained from this study is, however, low. The trend over the ten years has been slightly variable, with comparable data.

Keywords: allergens, food, egg proteins, immunoassay

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Authors: Saimir Cenameri, Arjana Tereziu, Kastriot Dallaku

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Introduction: Intra-uterine death is a common problem in obstetrical practice, and can lead to complications if left to resolve spontaneously. The cervix is unprepared, making inducing of labor difficult. Misoprostol is a synthetic prostaglandin E1 analogue, inexpensive, and is presented valid thanks to its ability to bring about changes in the cervix that lead to the induction of uterine contractions. Misoprostol is quickly absorbed when taken orally, resulting in high initial peak serum concentrations compared with the vaginal route. The vaginal misoprostol peak serum concentration is not as high and demonstrates a more gradual serum concentration decline. This is associated with many benefits for the patient; fast induction of labor; smaller doses; and fewer side effects (dose-depended). Mostly it has been used the regime of 50 μg/4 hour, with a high percentage of success and limited side effects. Objective: Evaluation of the efficiency of the use of oral and vaginal misoprostol in inducing labor, and comparing it with its use not by a previously defined protocol. Methods: Participants in this study included patients at U.H.O.G. 'Koco Gliozheni', Tirana from April 2004-July 2006, presenting with an indication for inducing labor in the third trimester for pregnancy termination. A total of 37 patients were randomly admitted for birth inducing activity, according to protocol (26), oral or vaginal protocol (10 vs. 16), and a control group (11), not subject to the protocol, was created. Oral or vaginal misoprostol was administered at a dose of 50 μg/4 h, while the fourth group participants were treated individually by the members of the medical staff. The main result of interest was the time between induction of labor to birth. Kruskal-Wallis test was used to compare the average age, parity, women weight, gestational age, Bishop's score, the size of the uterus and weight of the fetus between the four groups in the study. The Fisher exact test was used to compare day-stay and causes in the four groups. Mann-Whitney test was used to compare the time of the expulsion and the number of doses between oral and vaginal group. For all statistical tests used, the value of P ≤ 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: The four groups were comparable with regard to woman age and weight, parity, abortion indication, Bishop's score, fetal weight and the gestational age. There was significant difference in the percentage of deliveries within 24 hours. The average time from induction to birth per route (vaginal, oral, according to protocol and not according to the protocol) was respectively; 10.43h; 21.10h; 15.77h, 21.57h. There was no difference in maternal complications in groups. Conclusions: Use of vaginal misoprostol for inducing labor in the third trimester for termination of pregnancy appears to be more effective than the oral route, and even more to uses not according to the protocols approved before, where complications are greater and unjustified.

Keywords: inducing labor, misoprostol, pregnancy termination, third trimester

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Authors: Hengameh Hosseini

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Design of large healthcare facilities – such as hospitals, multi-service line clinics, and nursing facilities - that can accommodate patients with wide-ranging disabilities is a challenging endeavor and one that is poorly understood among healthcare facility managers, administrators, and executives. An even less-understood extension of this problem is the implications of weakly or insufficiently accommodative design of facilities for healthcare workers in physically-intensive jobs who may also suffer from a range of disabilities and who are therefore at increased risk of workplace accident and injury. Combine this reality with the vast range of facility types, ages, and designs, and the problem of universal accommodation becomes even more daunting and complex. In this study, we focus on the implication of facility design for healthcare workers suffering with low vision who also have physically active jobs. The points of difficulty are myriad and could span health service infrastructure, the equipment used in health facilities, and transport to and from appointments and other services can all pose a barrier to health care if they are inaccessible, less accessible, or even simply less comfortable for people with various disabilities. We conduct a series of surveys and interviews with employees and administrators of 7 facilities of a range of sizes and ownership models in the Northeastern United States and combine that corpus with in-facility observations and data collection to identify five major points of failure common to all the facilities that we concluded could pose safety threats to employees with vision impairments, ranging from very minor to severe. We determine that lack of design empathy is a major commonality among facility management and ownership. We subsequently propose three methods for remedying this lack of empathy-informed design, to remedy the dangers posed to employees: the use of an existing open-sourced Augmented Reality application to simulate the low-vision experience for designers and managers; the use of a machine learning model we develop to automatically infer facility shortcomings from large datasets of recorded patient and employee reviews and feedback; and the use of a computer vision model fine tuned on images of each facility to infer and predict facility features, locations, and workflows, that could again pose meaningful dangers to visually impaired employees of each facility. After conducting a series of real-world comparative experiments with each of these approaches, we conclude that each of these are viable solutions under particular sets of conditions, and finally characterize the range of facility types, workforce composition profiles, and work conditions under which each of these methods would be most apt and successful.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, healthcare workers, facility design, disability, visually impaired, workplace safety

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Authors: Ivelise M. Strozberg, Lucas O. Vale, Maria V. V. Morais

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Expansive soils are characterized by their significant volumetric variations, tending to suffer an increase of this volume when added water in their voids and a decrease of volume when this water is removed. The parameters of resistance (especially the angle of friction, cohesion and specific weight) of expansive or non-expansive soils of the same field present differences, as found in laboratory tests. What is expected is that, through this research, demonstrate that this variation directly affects the results of the calculation of factors of safety for slope stability. The expansibility due to specific clay minerals such as montmorillonites and vermiculites is the most common form of expansion of soils or rocks, causing expansion pressures. These pressures can become an aggravating problem in regions across the globe that, when not previously studied, may present high risks to the enterprise, such as cracks, fissures, movements in structures, breaking of retaining walls, drilling of wells, among others. The study provides results based on analyzes carried out in the Slide 2018 software belonging to the Rocsience group, where the software is a two-dimensional equilibrium slope stability program that calculates the factor of safety or probability of failure of certain surfaces composed of soils or rocks (or both, depending on the situation), - through the methods of: Bishop simplified, Fellenius and Janbu corrected. This research compares the factors of safety of a homogeneous earthfill dam geometry, analysed for operation and end-of-construction situations, having a height of approximately 35 meters, with a slope of 1.5: 1 in the slope downstream and 2: 1 on the upstream slope. As the water level is 32.73m high and the water table is drawn automatically by the Slide program using the finite element method for the operating situation, considering two hypotheses for the use of materials - the first with soils with characteristics of expansion and the second with soils without expansibility. For this purpose, soil samples were collected from the region of São Bento do Una - Pernambuco, Brazil and taken to the soil mechanics laboratory to characterize and determine the percentage of expansibility. There were found 2 types of soils in that area: 1 site of expansive soils (8%) and another with non- expansive ones. Based on the results found, the analysis of the values of factors of safety indicated, both upstream and downstream slopes, the highest values were obtained in the case where there is no presence of materials with expansibility resulting, for one of the situations, values of 1.353 (Fellenius), 1,295 (Janbu corrected) and 1,409 (Bishop simplified). There is a considerable drop in safety factors in cases where soils are potentially expansive, resulting in values for the same situation of 0.859 (Fellenius), 0.809 (Janbu corrected) and 0.842 (Bishop simplified), in the case of higher expansibility (8 %). This shows that the expansibility is a determinant factor in the fall of resistance of soil, determined by the factors of cohesion and angle of friction.

Keywords: dam. slope. software. swelling soil

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Mamta Jat

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Background: The increased longevity has resulted in the increase in the percentage of the global population aged 60 years or over. With this “demographic transition” towards ageing, “epidemiologic transition” is also taking place characterised by growing share of non-communicable diseases in the overall disease burden. So, many of the older adults are ageing with chronic disease and high levels of frailty which often results in lower levels of quality of life. Although frailty may be increasingly common in older adults, prevention or, at least, delay the onset of late-life adverse health outcomes and disability is necessary to maintain the health and functional status of the ageing population. This is an effort using SAGE data to assess levels of frailty and its socio-demographic correlates and its relation with quality of life in LMICs of India, China, Ghana, Mexico, Russia and South Africa in a comparative perspective. Methods: The data comes from multi-country Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health (SAGE), consists of nationally representative samples of older adults in six low and middle-income countries (LMICs): China, Ghana, India, Mexico, the Russian Federation and South Africa. For our study purpose, we will consider only 50+ year’s respondents. The logistic regression model has been used to assess the correlates of frailty. Multinomial logistic regression has been used to study the effect of frailty on QOL (quality of life), controlling for the effect of socio-economic and demographic correlates. Results: Among all the countries India is having highest mean frailty in males (0.22) and females (0.26) and China with the lowest mean frailty in males (0.12) and females (0.14). The odds of being frail are more likely with the increase in age across all the countries. In India, China and Russia the chances of frailty are more among rural older adults; whereas, in Ghana, South Africa and Mexico rural residence is protecting against frailty. Among all countries china has high percentage (71.46) of frail people in low QOL; whereas Mexico has lowest percentage (36.13) of frail people in low QOL.s The risk of having low and middle QOL is significantly (p<0.001) higher among frail elderly as compared to non–frail elderly across all countries with controlling socio-demographic correlates. Conclusion: Women and older age groups are having higher frailty levels than men and younger aged adults in LMICs. The mean frailty scores demonstrated a strong inverse relationship with education and income gradients, while lower levels of education and wealth are showing higher levels of frailty. These patterns are consistent across all LMICs. These data support a significant role of frailty with all other influences controlled, in having low QOL as measured by WHOQOL index. Future research needs to be built on this evolving concept of frailty in an effort to improve quality of life for frail elderly population, in LMICs setting.

Keywords: Keywords: Ageing, elderly, frailty, quality of life

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Authors: Ali Kassem, Yhea Kishik, Ali Hassan, Mohamed Abdelwahab

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Introduction: Accelerated coronary and peripheral vascular atherosclerosis is one of the most common and chronic complications of diabetes mellitus. A recent aspect of coronary artery disease in this condition is its silent nature. The aim of the work: Detection of the prevalence of silent myocardial ischemia (SMI) in Upper Egypt type 2 diabetic males and to select male diabetic population who should be screened for SMI. Patients and methods: 100 type 2 diabetic male patients with a negative history of angina or anginal equivalent symptoms and 30 healthy control were included. Full medical history and thorough clinical examination were done for all participants. Fasting and post prandial blood glucose level, lipid profile, (HbA1c), microalbuminuria, and C-reactive protein were done for all participants Resting ECG, trans-thoracic echocardiography, treadmill exercise ECG, myocardial perfusion imaging were done for all participants and patients positive for one or more NITs were subjected for coronary angiography. Results Twenty nine patients (29%) were positive for one or more NITs in the patients group compared to only one case (3.3%) in the controls. After coronary angiography, 20 patients were positive for significant coronary artery stenosis in the patients group, while it was refused to be done by the patient in the controls. There were statistical significant difference between the two groups regarding, hypertension, dyslipidemia and obesity, family history of DM and IHD with higher levels of microalbuminuria, C-reactive protein, total lipids in patient group versus controls According to coronary angiography, patients were subdivided into two subgroups, 20 positive for SMI (positive for coronary angiography) and 80 negative for SMI (negative for coronary angiography). No statistical difference regarding family history of DM and type of diabetic therapy was found between the two subgroups. Yet, smoking, hypertension, obesity, dyslipidemia and family history of IHD were significantly higher in diabetics positive versus those negative for SMI. 90% of patients in subgroup positive for SMI had two or more cardiac risk factors while only two patients had one cardiac risk factor (10%). Uncontrolled DM was detected more in patients positive for SMI. Diabetic complications were more prevalent in patients positive for SMI versus those negative for SMI. Most of the patients positive for SMI have DM more than 5 years duration. Resting ECG and resting Echo detected only 6 and 11 cases, respectively, of the 20 positive cases in group positive for SMI compared to treadmill exercise ECG and myocardial perfusion imaging that detected 16 and 18 cases respectively, Conclusion: Type 2 diabetic male patients should be screened for detection of SMI when aged above 50 years old, diabetes duration is more than 5 years, presence of two or more cardiac risk factors and/or patients suffering from one or more of the chronic diabetic complications. CRP, is an important parameter for selection of type 2 diabetic male patients who should be screened for SMI. Non invasive cardiac tests are reliable for screening of SMI in these patients in our locality.

Keywords: C-reactive protein, Silent myocardial ischemia, Stress tests, type 2 DM

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Authors: K. O’Mara, T. Cresswell

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Nearly half of the world’s population live near the coast, and as a result, estuaries and coastal bays in populated or industrialized areas often receive metal pollution. Heavy metals have a chemical affinity for sediment particles and can be stored in estuarine sediments and become biologically available under changing conditions. Organisms inhabiting estuaries can be exposed to metals from a variety of sources including metals dissolved in water, bound to sediment or within contaminated prey. Metal uptake and assimilation responses can vary even between species that are biologically similar, making pollution effects difficult to predict. A multi-trophic level experiment representing a common Eastern Australian estuarine food chain was used to study the sources for Cd, Mn and Zn uptake and assimilation in organisms occupying several trophic levels. Sand cockles (Katelysia scalarina), school prawns (Metapenaeus macleayi) and sand whiting (Sillago ciliata) were exposed to radiolabelled seawater, suspended sediment and food. Three pulse-chase trials on filter-feeding sand cockles were performed using radiolabelled phytoplankton (Tetraselmis sp.), benthic microalgae (Entomoneis sp.) and suspended sediment. Benthic microalgae had lower metal uptake than phytoplankton during labelling but higher cockle assimilation efficiencies (Cd = 51%, Mn = 42%, Zn = 63 %) than both phytoplankton (Cd = 21%, Mn = 32%, Zn = 33%) and suspended sediment (except Mn; (Cd = 38%, Mn = 42%, Zn = 53%)). Sand cockles were also sensitive to uptake of Cd, Mn and Zn dissolved in seawater. Uptake of these metals from the dissolved phase was negligible in prawns and fish, with prawns only accumulating metals during moulting, which were then lost with subsequent moulting in the depuration phase. Diet appears to be the main source of metal assimilation in school prawns, with 65%, 54% and 58% assimilation efficiencies from Cd, Mn and Zn respectively. Whiting fed contaminated prawns were able to exclude the majority of the metal activity through egestion, with only 10%, 23% and 11% assimilation efficiencies from Cd, Mn and Zn respectively. The findings of this study support previous studies that find diet to be the dominant accumulation source for higher level trophic organisms. These results show that assimilation efficiencies can vary depending on the source of exposure; sand cockles assimilated more Cd, Mn, and Zn from the benthic diatom than phytoplankton and assimilation was higher in sand whiting fed prawns compared to artificial pellets. The sensitivity of sand cockles to metal uptake and assimilation from a variety of sources poses concerns for metal availability to predators ingesting the clam tissue, including humans. The high tolerance of sand whiting to these metals is reflected in their widespread presence in Eastern Australian estuaries, including contaminated estuaries such as Botany Bay and Port Jackson.

Keywords: cadmium, food chain, metal, manganese, trophic, zinc

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Authors: Abhinav Singh

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Point Of Sale (POS) malwares have been stealing the limelight this year. They have been the elemental factor in some of the biggest breaches uncovered in past couple of years. Some of them include • Target: A Retail Giant reported close to 40 million credit card data being stolen • Home Depot : A home product Retailer reported breach of close to 50 million credit records • Kmart: A US retailer recently announced breach of 800 thousand credit card details. Alone in 2014, there have been reports of over 15 major breaches of payment systems around the globe. Memory scrapping malwares infecting the point of sale devices have been the lethal weapon used in these attacks. These malwares are capable of reading the payment information from the payment device memory before they are being encrypted. Later on these malwares send the stolen details to its parent server. These malwares are capable of recording all the critical payment information like the card number, security number, owner etc. All these information are delivered in raw format. This Talk will cover the aspects of what happens after these details have been sent to the malware authors. The entire ecosystem of credit card frauds can be broadly classified into these three steps: • Purchase of raw details and dumps • Converting them to plastic cash/cards • Shop! Shop! Shop! The focus of this talk will be on the above mentioned points and how they form an organized network of cyber-crime. The first step involves buying and selling of the stolen details. The key point to emphasize are : • How is this raw information been sold in the underground market • The buyer and seller anatomy • Building your shopping cart and preferences • The importance of reputation and vouches • Customer support and replace/refunds These are some of the key points that will be discussed. But the story doesn’t end here. As of now the buyer only has the raw card information. How will this raw information be converted to plastic cash? Now comes in picture the second part of this underground economy where-in these raw details are converted into actual cards. There are well organized services running underground that can help you in converting these details into plastic cards. We will discuss about this technique in detail. At last, the final step involves shopping with the stolen cards. The cards generated with the stolen details can be easily used to swipe-and-pay for purchased goods at different retail shops. Usually these purchases are of expensive items that have good resale value. Apart from using the cards at stores, there are underground services that lets you deliver online orders to their dummy addresses. Once the package is received it will be delivered to the original buyer. These services charge based on the value of item that is being delivered. The overall underground ecosystem of credit card fraud works in a bulletproof way and it involves people working in close groups and making heavy profits. This is a brief summary of what I plan to present at the talk. I have done an extensive research and have collected good deal of material to present as samples. Some of them include: • List of underground forums • Credit card dumps • IRC chats among these groups • Personal chat with big card sellers • Inside view of these forum owners. The talk will be concluded by throwing light on how these breaches are being tracked during investigation. How are credit card breaches tracked down and what steps can financial institutions can build an incidence response over it.

Keywords: POS mawalre, credit card frauds, enterprise security, underground ecosystem

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Authors: Aarti M. Shetty, Estela Davoodi, Subrata Gangooly, Anita Rao-Coppisetty

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Background: Testing Patency of Fallopian Tubes is among one of the several protocols for investigating Subfertile Couples. Both, Hysterosalpingogram (HSG) and Laparoscopy and dye test have been used as Tubal patency test for several years, with well-known limitation. Hysterosalpingo Contrast Sonography (HyCoSy) can be used as an alternative tool to HSG, to screen patency of Fallopian tubes, with an advantage of being non-ionising, and also, use of transvaginal scan to diagnose pelvic pathology. Aim: To determine the indication and analyse the performance of transvaginal scan and HyCoSy in Broomfield Hospital. Methods: We retrospectively analysed fertility workup of 282 women, who attended HyCoSy clinic at our institution from January 2015 to June 2016. An Audit proforma was designed, to aid data collection. Data was collected from patient notes and electronic records, which included patient demographics; age, parity, type of subfertility (primary or secondary), duration of subfertility, past medical history and base line investigation (hormone profile and semen analysis). Findings of the transvaginal scan, HyCoSy and Laparoscopy were also noted. Results: The most common indication for referral were as a part of primary fertility workup on couples who had failure to conceive despite intercourse for a year, other indication for referral were recurrent miscarriage, history of ectopic pregnancy, post reversal of sterilization(vasectomy and tuboplasty), Post Gynaecology surgery(Loop excision, cone biopsy) and amenorrhea. Basic Fertility workup showed 34% men had abnormal semen analysis. HyCoSy was successfully completed in 270 (95%) women using ExEm foam and Transvaginal Scan. Of the 270 patients, 535 tubes were examined in total. 495/535 (93%) tubes were reported as patent, 40/535 (7.5%) tubes were reported as blocked. A total of 17 (6.3%) patients required laparoscopy and dye test after HyCoSy. In these 17 patients, 32 tubes were examined under laparoscopy, and 21 tubes had findings similar to HyCoSy, with a concordance rate of 65%. In addition to this, 41 patients had some form of pelvic pathology (endometrial polyp, fibroid, cervical polyp, fibroid, bicornuate uterus) detected during transvaginal scan, who referred to corrective surgeries after attending HyCoSy Clinic. Conclusion: Our audit shows that HyCoSy and Transvaginal scan can be a reliable screening test for low risk women. Furthermore, it has competitive diagnostic accuracy to HSG in identifying tubal patency, with an additional advantage of screening for pelvic pathology. With addition of 3D Scan, pulse Doppler and other non-invasive imaging modality, HyCoSy may potentially replace Laparoscopy and chromopertubation in near future.

Keywords: hysterosalpingo contrast sonography (HyCoSy), transvaginal scan, tubal infertility, tubal patency test

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Authors: Riddhi Chopra

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Alfred Thayer Mahan described the sea as a ‘great common,’ which would serve as a medium for communication, trade, and transport. The seas of Asia are witnessing an intriguing historical anomaly – rise of an indigenous maritime power against the backdrop of US domination over the region. As China transforms from an inward leaning economy to an outward-leaning economy, it has become increasingly dependent on the global sea; as a result, we witness an evolution in its maritime strategy from near seas defense to far seas deployment strategies. It is not only patrolling the international waters but has also built a network of civilian and military infrastructure across the disputed oceanic expanse. The paper analyses the reorientation of China from a naval power to a blue water navy in an era of extensive globalisation. The actions of the Chinese have created a zone of high alert amongst its neighbors such as Japan, Philippines, Vietnam and North Korea. These nations are trying to align themselves so as to counter China’s growing brinkmanship, but China has been pursuing claims through a carefully calibrated strategy in the region shunning any coercive measures taken by other forces. If China continues to expand its maritime boundaries, its neighbors – all smaller and weaker Asian nations would be limited to a narrow band of the sea along its coastlines. Hence it is essential for the US to intervene and support its allies to offset Chinese supremacy. The paper intends to provide a profound analysis over the disputes in South China Sea and East China Sea focusing on Philippines and Japan respectively. Moreover, the paper attempts to give an account of US involvement in the region and its alignment with its South Asian allies. The geographic dynamics is said the breed a national coalition dominating the strategic ambitions of China as well as the weak littoral states. China has conducted behind the scenes diplomacy trying to persuade its neighbors to support its position on the territorial disputes. These efforts have been successful in creating fault lines in ASEAN thereby undermining regional integrity to reach a consensus on the issue. Chinese diplomatic efforts have also forced the US to revisit its foreign policy and engage with players like Cambodia and Laos. The current scenario in the SCS points to a strong Chinese hold trying to outspace all others with no regards to International law. Chinese activities are in contrast with US principles like Freedom of Navigation thereby signaling US to take bold actions to prevent Chinese hegemony in the region. The paper ultimately seeks to explore the changing power dynamics among various claimants where a rival superpower like US can pursue the traditional policy of alliance formation play a decisive role in changing the status quo in the arena, consequently determining the future trajectory.

Keywords: China, East China Sea, South China Sea, USA

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Authors: Rigas Kotsakis, Nikolaos Tsigilis, Vasilis Grammatikopoulos, Evridiki Zachopoulou

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During the last decade, Greece has faced an unprecedented financial crisis, affecting various aspects and functionalities of Higher Education. Besides the restricted funding of academic institutions, the students and their families encountered economical difficulties that undoubtedly influenced the effective completion of their studies. In this context, a fairly large number of students in Alexander campus of International Hellenic University (IHU) delay, interrupt, or even abandon their studies, especially when they come from low-income families, belong to sensitive social or special needs groups, they have different cultural origins, etc. For this reason, a European project, named “Umbrella”, was initiated aiming at providing the necessary psychological support and counseling, especially to disadvantaged students, towards the completion of their studies. To this end, a network of various academic members (academic staff and students) from IHU, namely iMentor, were implicated in different roles. Specifically, experienced academic staff trained students to serve as intermediate links for the integration and educational support of students that fall into the aforementioned sensitive social groups and face problems for the completion of their studies. The main idea of the project is held upon its person-centered character, which facilitates direct student-to-student communication without the intervention of the teaching staff. The backbone of the iMentors network are senior students that face no problem in their academic life and volunteered for this project. It should be noted that there is a provision from the Umbrella structure for substantial and ethical rewards for their engagement. In this context, a well-defined, stringent methodology was implemented for the evaluation of the extent of the problem in IHU and the detection of the profile of the “candidate” disadvantaged students. The first phase included two steps, (a) data collection and (b) data cleansing/ preprocessing. The first step involved the data collection process from the Secretary Services of all Schools in IHU, from 1980 to 2019, which resulted in 96.418 records. The data set included the School name, the semester of studies, a student enrolling criteria, the nationality, the graduation year or the current, up-to-date academic state (still studying, delayed, dropped off, etc.). The second step of the employed methodology involved the data cleansing/preprocessing because of the existence of “noisy” data, missing and erroneous values, etc. Furthermore, several assumptions and grouping actions were imposed to achieve data homogeneity and an easy-to-interpret subsequent statistical analysis. Specifically, the duration of 40 years recording was limited to the last 15 years (2004-2019). In 2004 the Greek Technological Institutions were evolved into Higher Education Universities, leading into a stable and unified frame of graduate studies. In addition, the data concerning active students were excluded from the analysis since the initial processing effort was focused on the detection of factors/variables that differentiated graduate and deleted students. The final working dataset included 21.432 records with only two categories of students, those that have a degree and those who abandoned their studies. Findings of the first phase are presented across faculties and further discussed.

Keywords: higher education, students support, economic crisis, mentoring

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Authors: Melissa K. Hord, Stephen P. Whiteside

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With lifetime prevalence rates ranging from 6% to 15%, anxiety disorders are among the most common childhood mental health diagnoses. Anxiety disorders diagnosed in childhood generally show an unremitting course, lead to additional psychopathology and interfere with social, emotional, and academic development. Effective evidence-based treatments include cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI’s). However, if anxious children receive any treatment, it is usually through primary care, typically consists of medication, and very rarely includes evidence-based psychotherapy. Despite the high prevalence of anxiety disorders, there have only been two independent research labs that have investigated long-term results for CBT treatment for all childhood anxiety disorders and two for specific anxiety disorders. Generally, the studies indicate that the majority of youth maintain gains up to 7.4 years after treatment. These studies have not been replicated. In addition, little is known about the additional mental health care received by these patients in the intervening years after anxiety treatment, which seems likely to influence maintenance of gains for anxiety symptoms as well as the development of additional psychopathology during the subsequent years. The original sample consisted of 335 children ages 7 to 17 years (mean 13.09, 53% female) diagnosed with an anxiety disorder in 2010. Medical record review included provider billing records for mental health appointments during the five years after anxiety treatment. The subsample for this study was classified into three groups: 64 children who received CBT in an anxiety disorders clinic, 56 who received treatment from a psychiatrist, and 10 who were seen in a primary care setting. Chi-square analyses resulted in significant differences in mental health care utilization across the five years after treatment. Youth receiving treatment in primary care averaged less than one appointment each year and the appointments continued at the same rate across time. Children treated by a psychiatrist averaged approximately 3 appointments in the first two years and 2 in the subsequent three years. Importantly, youth treated in the anxiety clinic demonstrated a gradual decrease in mental health appointments across time. The nuanced differences will be presented in greater detail. The results of the current study have important implications for developing dissemination materials to help guide parents when they are selecting treatment for their children. By including all mental health appointments, this study recognizes that anxiety is often comorbid with additional diagnoses and that receiving evidence-based treatment may have long-term benefits that are associated with improvements in broader mental health. One important caveat might be that the acuity of mental health influenced the level of care sought by patients included in this study; however, taking this possibility into account, it seems those seeking care in a primary care setting continued to require similar care at the end of the study, indicating little improvement in symptoms was experienced.

Keywords: anxiety, children, mental health, outcomes

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Authors: Chooi Fong Lee

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Background: Maternal psychological well-being has been investigated from various aspects, such as social support, employment status. However, a perspective from self-discrepancy theory has not been employed. Moreover, most were focused on young mothers. Less is understanding the middle-aged mother’s psychological well-being. Objective: To examine the influence of maternal self-discrepancy between actual and ideal self on maternal role achievement, state anxiety, trait anxiety, and subjective well-being among Japanese middle-aged mothers across their employment status. Method: A pilot study was conducted with 20 mother participants (aged 40-55, 9 regular-employed, 8 non-regular-employed, and 3 homemaker mothers) to assess the viability of survey questionnaires (Maternal Role Achievement Scale, State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, Subjective Well-being Scale, and a self-report). Participants were randomly selected voluntarily from the college students’ mothers. Participants accessed the survey via a designated URL. The self-report questionnaire prompted participants to list up to 3 ideal selves they aspired to be and rate the extent to which their actual selves deviated from their ideal selves on a 7-point scale (1= not at all; 4 = medium; 7 = extremely). The findings confirmed the validity of the survey questionnaires, indicating their appropriateness for use in subsequent research. Self-discrepancy scores were calculated by subtracting participants’ degree ratings from a 7-point scale, summing them up, and then dividing the total by 3. Setting: We ensured participants were randomly selected from the research firm to mitigate bias. The self-report questionnaire was adapted from a validated instrument and underwent rigorous modification and testing in the pilot study. The final sample consisted of 241 participants, 97 regular-employed, 87 non-regular employed, and 57 homemaker mothers. Result: The reliability coefficient for the discrepancy score is α=.75. The findings indicate that regular-employed mothers tend to exhibit lower self-discrepancy scores compared to non-regular employed and homemaker mothers. This discrepancy negatively impacts maternal role, state anxiety, and subjective well-being while positively affecting trait anxiety. Trait anxiety arises when one feels they did not meet their ideal self, as evidenced by higher levels in homemaker mothers, who experience lower state anxiety. Conversely, regular-employed mothers exhibit higher state anxiety but lower trait anxiety, suggesting satisfaction in their professional pursuits despite balancing work and family responsibilities. Full-time maternal roles contribute to lower state anxiety but higher trait anxiety among homemaker mothers due to a lack of personal identity achievement. Non-regular employed mothers show similarities to homemaker mothers. In self-reports, regular-employed mothers highlight support and devotion to their children’s development, while non-regular-employed mothers seek life fulfillment through part-time work alongside child-rearing duties. Homemaker mothers emphasize qualities like sociability, and communication skills, potentially influencing their self-discrepancy scores. Furthermore, the hierarchical multiple regression analysis revealed that the discrepancy scores significantly predict subjective well-being. Conclusion: There may be the need for broader generalizability beyond our sample of Japanese mothers; however, the findings offer valuable insights into the impact of maternal self-discrepancy on psychological well-being among middle-aged mothers across different employment statuses. Understanding these dynamics becomes crucial as contemporary women increasingly pursue higher education and depart from traditional motherhood norms.

Keywords: maternal employment, maternal role, self-discrepancy, state-trait anxiety, subjective well-being

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Authors: Rafael Santos, Clara Pimenta Do Vale, Barbara Bogoni, Poul Henning Kirkegaard

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In the last decades, the relevance of hand drawing has decreased in the scope of architectural education. However, some schools continue to recognize its decisive role, not only in the architectural design teaching, but in the whole of architectural training. With this paper it is intended to present the results of a research developed on the following problem: the practise of hand drawing as a premier form of representation in architectural design teaching. The research had as its object the educational model of the Faculty of Architecture of the University of Porto (FAUP) and was led by three main objectives: to identify the circumstance that promoted hand drawing as a form of representation in FAUP's model; to characterize the types of hand drawing and their role in that model; to determine the particularities of hand drawing as a premier form of representation in architectural design teaching. Methodologically, the research was conducted according to a qualitative embedded single-case study design. The object – i.e., the educational model – was approached in FAUP case considering its Context and three embedded unities of analysis: the educational Purposes, Principles and Practices. In order to guide the procedures of data collection and analysis, a Matrix for the Characterization (MCC) was developed. As a methodological tool, the MCC allowed to relate the three embedded unities of analysis with the three main sources of evidence where the object manifests itself: the professors, expressing how the model is Assumed; the architectural design classes, expressing how the model is Achieved; and the students, expressing how the model is Acquired. The main research methods used were the naturalistic and participatory observation, in-person-interview and documentary and bibliographic review. The results reveal that the educational model of FAUP – following the model of the former Porto School – was largely due to the methodological foundations created with the hand drawing teaching-learning processes. In the absence of a culture of explicit theoretical elaboration or systematic research, hand drawing was the support for the continuity of the school, an expression of a unified thought about what should be the reflection and practice of architecture. As a form of representation, hand drawing plays a transversal role in the entire educational model, since its purposes are not limited to the conception of architectural design – it is also a means for perception, analysis and synthesis. Regarding the architectural design teaching, there seems to be an understanding of three complementary dimensions of didactics: the instrumental, methodological and propositional dimension. At FAUP, hand drawing is recognized as the common denominator among these dimensions, according to the idea of "globality of drawing". It is expected that the knowledge base developed in this research may have three main contributions: to contribute to the maintenance and valorisation of FAUP’s model; through the precise description of the methodological procedures, to contribute by transferability to similar studies; through the critical and objective framework of the problem underlying the hand drawing in architectural design teaching, to contribute to the broader discussion concerning the contemporary challenges on architectural education.

Keywords: architectural design teaching, architectural education, forms of representation, hand drawing

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Authors: Hai L. Tran

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Previous research on agenda setting effects has often focused on the top-down influence of the media at the aggregate level, while overlooking the capacity of audience members to select media and content to fit their individual dispositions. The decentralized characteristics of online communication and digital news create more choices and greater user control, thereby enabling each audience member to seek out a unique blend of media sources, issues, and elements of messages and to mix them into a coherent individual picture of the world. This study examines how audiences use media differently depending on their prior dispositions, thereby making sense of the world in ways that are congruent with their preferences and cognitions. The current undertaking is informed by theoretical frameworks from two distinct lines of scholarship. According to the ideological migration hypothesis, individuals choose to live in communities with ideologies like their own to satisfy their need to belong. One tends to move away from Zip codes that are incongruent and toward those that are more aligned with one’s ideological orientation. This geographical division along ideological lines has been documented in social psychology research. As an extension of agenda setting, the agendamelding hypothesis argues that audiences seek out information in attractive media and blend them into a coherent narrative that fits with a common agenda shared by others, who think as they do and communicate with them about issues of public. In other words, individuals, through their media use, identify themselves with a group/community that they want to join. Accordingly, the present study hypothesizes that because ideology plays a role in pushing people toward a physical community that fits their need to belong, it also leads individuals to receive an idiosyncratic blend of media and be influenced by such selective exposure in deciding what issues are more relevant. Consequently, the individualized focus of media choices impacts how audiences perceive political news coverage and what they know about political issues. The research project utilizes recent data from The American Trends Panel survey conducted by Pew Research Center to explore the nuanced nature of agenda setting at the individual level and amid heightened polarization. Hypothesis testing is performed with both nonparametric and parametric procedures, including regression and path analysis. This research attempts to explore the media-public relationship from a bottom-up approach, considering the ability of active audience members to select among media in a larger process that entails agenda setting. It helps encourage agenda-setting scholars to further examine effects at the individual, rather than aggregate, level. In addition to theoretical contributions, the study’s findings are useful for media professionals in building and maintaining relationships with the audience considering changes in market share due to the spread of digital and social media.

Keywords: agenda setting, agendamelding, audience fragmentation, ideological migration, partisanship, polarization

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Authors: Tiera Tanksley, Amanda M. McLeroy

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The advent of technology and social media has ushered in a new era of communication, providing platforms for news dissemination and cause advocacy. However, this digital landscape has also exposed a distressing phenomenon termed "Black death," or trauma porn. This paper delves into the profound effects of repeated exposure to traumatic content on Black youth via social media, exploring the psychological impacts and potential reinforcing of stereotypes. Employing Critical Race Technology Theory (CRTT), the study sheds light on algorithmic anti-blackness and its influence on Black youth's lives and educational experiences. Through ethnographic content analysis, the research investigates common manifestations of Black death encountered online by Black adolescents. Findings unveil distressing viral videos, traumatic images, racial slurs, and hate speech, perpetuating stereotypes. However, amidst the distress, the study identifies narratives of activism and social justice on social media platforms, empowering Black youth to engage in positive change. Coping mechanisms and community support emerge as significant factors in navigating the digital landscape. The study underscores the need for comprehensive interventions and policies informed by evidence-based research. By addressing algorithmic anti-blackness and promoting digital resilience, the paper advocates for a more empathetic and inclusive online environment. Understanding coping mechanisms and community support becomes imperative for fostering mental well-being among Black adolescents navigating social media. In education, the implications are substantial. Acknowledging the impact of Black death content, educators play a pivotal role in promoting media literacy and digital resilience. Creating inclusive and safe online spaces, educators can mitigate negative effects and encourage open discussions about traumatic content. The application of CRTT in educational technology emphasizes dismantling systemic biases and promoting equity. In conclusion, this study calls for educators to be cognizant of the impact of Black death content on social media. By prioritizing media literacy, fostering digital resilience, and advocating for unbiased technologies, educators contribute to an inclusive and just educational environment for all students, irrespective of their race or background. Addressing challenges related to Black death content proactively ensures the well-being and mental health of Black adolescents, fostering an empathetic and inclusive digital space.

Keywords: algorithmic anti-Blackness, digital resilience, media literacy, traumatic content

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Authors: Mohammed AL-Hasani

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The Pandemic COVID-19 altered the daily habits and affected the functional performance of the cities after this crisis leaving remarkable impacts on many metropolises worldwide. It is so obvious that having more densification in the city leads to more threats altering this main approach that was called for achieving sustainable development. The main goal to achieve resiliency in the cities, especially in forcing risks, is to deal with a planning system that is able to resist, absorb, accommodate and recover from the impacts that had been affected. Many Cities in London, Wuhan, New York, and others worldwide carried different planning approaches and varied in reaction to safeguard the impacts of the pandemic. The cities globally varied from the radiant pattern predicted by Le Corbusier, or having multi urban centers more like the approach of Frank Lloyd Wright’s Broadacre City, or having linear growth or gridiron expansion that was common by Doxiadis, compact pattern, and many other hygiene patterns. These urban patterns shape the spatial distribution and Identify both open and natural spaces with gentrified and gentrifying areas. This crisis paid attention to reassess many planning approaches and examine the existing urban patterns focusing more on the aim of continuity and resiliency in managing the crises within the rapid transformation and the power of market forces. According to that, this paper hypothesized that those urban planning patterns determine the method of reaction in assuring quarantine for the inhabitance and the performance of public services and need to be updated through carrying out an innovative urban management system and adopt further resilience patterns in prospective urban planning approaches. This paper investigates the adaptivity and resiliency of variant urban planning patterns regarding selected cities worldwide that affected by COVID-19 and their role in applying certain management strategies in controlling the pandemic spread, finding out the main potentials that should be included in prospective planning approaches. The examination encompasses the spatial arrangement, blocks definition, plots arrangement, and urban space typologies. This paper aims to investigate the urban patterns to deliberate also the debate between densification as one of the more sustainable planning approaches and disaggregation tendency that was followed after the pandemic by restructuring and managing its application according to the assessment of the spatial distribution and urban patterns. The biggest long-term threat to dense cities proves the need to shift to online working and telecommuting, creating a mixture between using cyber and urban spaces to remobilize the city. Reassessing spatial design and growth, open spaces, urban population density, and public awareness are the main solutions that should be carried out to face the outbreak in our current cities that should be managed from global to tertiary levels and could develop criteria for designing the prospective cities

Keywords: COVID-19, densification, resiliency, urban patterns

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Authors: Sarika Gupta, Harshika Khanna, Ajay K Verma, Surya Kant

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Background: Drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) is a growing health challenge to global TB control efforts. Pediatric DR-TB is one of the neglected infectious diseases. In our previously published report, we have notified an increased prevalence of DR-TB in the pediatric population at a tertiary health care centre in North India which was estimated as 17.4%, 15.1%, 18.4%, and 20.3% in (%) in the year 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021. Limited evidence exists about a pattern of drug resistance, side effect profile and programmatic outcomes of Paediatric DR-TB treatment. Therefore, this study was done to find out the pattern of resistance, side effect profile and treatment outcome. Methodology: This was a prospective cohort study conducted at the nodal drug-resistant tuberculosis centre of a tertiary care hospital in North India from January 2021 to December 2022. Subjects included children aged between 0-18 years of age with a diagnosis of DR-TB, on the basis of GeneXpert (rifampicin [RIF] resistance detected), line probe assay and drug sensitivity testing (DST) of M. tuberculosis (MTB) grown on a culture of body fluids. Children were classified as monoresistant TB, polyresistant TB (resistance to more than 1 first-line anti-TB drug, other than both INH and RIF), MDR-TB, pre-XDR-TB and XDR-TB, as per the WHO classification. All the patients were prescribed DR TB treatment as per the standard guidelines, either shorter oral DR-TB regimen or a longer all-oral MDR/XDR-TB regimen (age below five years needed modification). All the patients were followed up for side effects of treatment once per month. The patient outcomes were categorized as good outcomes if they had completed treatment and cured or were improving during the course of treatment, while bad outcomes included death or not improving during the course of treatment. Results: Of the 50 pediatric patients included in the study, 34 were females (66.7%) and 16 were male (31.4%). Around 33 patients (64.7%) were suffering from pulmonary TB, while 17 (33.3%) were suffering from extrapulmonary TB. The proportions of monoresistant TB, polyresistant TB, MDR-TB, pre-XDR-TB and XDR-TB were 2.0%, 0%, 50.0%, 30.0% and 18.0%, respectively. Good outcome was reported in 40 patients (80.0%). The 10 bad outcomes were 7 deaths (14%) and 3 (6.0%) children who were not improving. Adverse events (single or multiple) were reported in all the patients, most of which were mild in nature. The most common adverse events were metallic taste 16(31.4%), rash and allergic reaction 15(29.4%), nausea and vomiting 13(26.0%), arthralgia 11 (21.6%) and alopecia 11 (21.6%). Serious adverse event of QTc prolongation was reported in 4 cases (7.8%), but neither arrhythmias nor symptomatic cardiac side effects occurred. Vestibular toxicity was reported in 2(3.9%), and psychotic symptoms in 4(7.8%). Hepatotoxicity, hypothyroidism, peripheral neuropathy, gynaecomastia, and amenorrhea were reported in 2 (4.0%), 4 (7.8%), 2 (3.9%), 1(2.0%), and 2 (3.9%) respectively. None of the drugs needed to be withdrawn due to uncontrolled adverse events. Conclusion: Paediatric DR TB treatment achieved favorable outcomes in a large proportion of children. DR TB treatment regimen drugs were overall well tolerated in this cohort.

Keywords: pediatric, drug-resistant, tuberculosis, adverse events, treatment

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Authors: Ankit Khurana

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The sufficient heat storage capacity or ability to dissipate heat is the most decisive parameter to have an effective and efficient functioning of Friction-based Brake Disc systems. The primary aim of the research was to analyse the effect of multiple coatings on lightweight disk rotors surface which not only alleviates the mass of vehicle & also, augments heat transfer. This research is projected to aid the automobile fraternity with an enunciated view over the thermal aspects in a braking system. The results of the project indicate that with the advent of modern coating technologies a brake system’s thermal curtailments can be removed and together with forced convection, heat transfer processes can see a drastic improvement leading to increased lifetime of the brake rotor. Other advantages of modifying the surface of a lightweight rotor substrate will be to reduce the overall weight of the vehicle, decrease the risk of thermal brake failure (brake fade and fluid vaporization), longer component life, as well as lower noise and vibration characteristics. A mathematical model was constructed in MATLAB which encompassing the various thermal characteristics of the proposed coatings and substrate materials required to approximate the heat flux values in a free and forced convection environment; resembling to a real-time braking phenomenon which could easily be modelled into a full cum scaled version of the alloy brake rotor part in ABAQUS. The finite element of a brake rotor was modelled in a constrained environment such that the nodal temperature between the contact surfaces of the coatings and substrate (Wrought Aluminum alloy) resemble an amalgamated solid brake rotor element. The initial results obtained were for a Plasma Electrolytic Oxidized (PEO) substrate wherein the Aluminum alloy gets a hard ceramic oxide layer grown on its transitional phase. The rotor was modelled and then evaluated in real-time for a constant ‘g’ braking event (based upon the mathematical heat flux input and convective surroundings), which reflected the necessity to deposit a conducting coat (sacrificial) above the PEO layer in order to inhibit thermal degradation of the barrier coating prematurely. Taguchi study was then used to bring out certain critical factors which may influence the maximum operating temperature of a multi-coated brake disc by simulating brake tests: a) an Alpine descent lasting 50 seconds; b) an Autobahn stop lasting 3.53 seconds; c) a Six–high speed repeated stop in accordance to FMVSS 135 lasting 46.25 seconds. Thermal Barrier coating thickness and Vane heat transfer coefficient were the two most influential factors and owing to their design and manufacturing constraints a final optimized model was obtained which survived the 6-high speed stop test as per the FMVSS -135 specifications. The simulation data highlighted the merits for preferring Wrought Aluminum alloy 7068 over Grey Cast Iron and Aluminum Metal Matrix Composite in coherence with the multiple coating depositions.

Keywords: lightweight brakes, surface modification, simulated braking, PEO, aluminum

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Authors: Kever Bruno Paradelo Gomes, Rosana Carvalho Martins

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The home gardens areas are production systems, which are located near the homes and are quite common in the tropics. They consist of agricultural and forest species and may also involve the raising of small animals to produce food for subsistence as well as income generation, with a special focus on the conservation of biodiversity. Home gardens are diverse Agroforestry systems with multiple uses, among many, food security, income aid, traditional medicine. The work was carried out on rural properties of the family farmers of the Ponte Alta Rural Nucleus, Gama Administrative Region, in the city of Brasília, Federal District- Brazil. The present research is characterized methodologically as a quantitative, exploratory and descriptive nature. The instruments used in this research were: bibliographic survey and semi-structured questionnaire. The data collection was performed through the application of a semi-structured questionnaire, containing questions that referred to the perception and behavior of the interviewed producer on the subject under analysis. In each question, the respondent explained his knowledge about sustainability, agroecological practices, environmental legislation, conservation methods, forest and medicinal species, ago social and socioeconomic characteristics, use and purpose of agroforestry and technical assistance. The sample represented 55.62% of the universe of the study. We interviewed 99 people aged 18-83 years, with a mean age of 49 years. The low level of education, coupled with the lack of training and guidance for small family farmers in the Ponte Alta Rural Nucleus, is one of the limitations to the development of practices oriented towards sustainable and agroecological agriculture in the nucleus. It is observed that 50.5% of the interviewed people landed with agroforestry yards less than 20 years ago, and only 16.17% of them are older than 35 years. In identifying agriculture as the main activity of most of the rural properties studied, attention is drawn to the cultivation of medicinal plants, fruits and crops as the most extracted products. However, it is verified that the crops in the backyards have the exclusive purpose of family consumption, which could be complemented with the marketing of the surplus, as well as with the aggregation of value to the cultivated products. Initiatives such as this may contribute to the increase in family income and to the motivation and value of the crop in agroecological gardens. We conclude that home gardens of Ponte Alta are highly diverse thus contributing to local biodiversity conservation of are managed by women to ensure food security and allows income generation. The tradition of existing knowledge on the use and management of the diversity of resources used in agroforestry yards is of paramount importance for the development of sustainable alternative practices.

Keywords: agriculture, agroforestry system, rural development, sustainability

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Authors: Chee Wee Gan, Anthony Herr Cheun Ng, Yee Shan Wong, Subbu Venkatraman, Lynne Hsueh Yee Lim

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Otitis media with effusion (OME) is the leading cause of hearing loss in children worldwide. Surgery to insert grommet tube into the eardrum is usually indicated for OME unresponsive to antimicrobial therapy. It is the most common surgery for children. However, current commercially available grommet tubes are non-bioresorbable, not drug-treated, with unpredictable duration of retention on the eardrum to ventilate middle ear. Their functionality is impaired when clogged or chronically infected, requiring additional surgery to remove/reinsert grommet tubes. We envisaged that a novel fully bioresorbable grommet tube with sustained antibiotic release technology could address these drawbacks. In this study, drug-loaded bioresorbable poly(L-lactide-co-ε-caprolactone)(PLC) copolymer grommet tubes were fabricated by microinjection moulding technique. In vitro drug release and degradation model of PLC tubes were studied. Antibacterial property was evaluated by incubating PLC tubes with P. aeruginosa broth. Surface morphology was analyzed using scanning electron microscopy. A preliminary animal study was conducted using guinea pigs as an in vivo model to evaluate PLC tubes with and without drug, with commercial Mini Shah grommet tube as comparison. Our in vitro data showed sustained drug release over 3 months. All PLC tubes revealed exponential degradation profiles over time. Modeling predicted loss of tube functionality in water to be approximately 14 weeks and 17 weeks for PLC with and without drug, respectively. Generally, PLC tubes had less bacteria adherence, which were attributed to the much smoother tube surfaces compared to Mini Shah. Antibiotic from PLC tube further made bacteria adherence on surface negligible. They showed neither inflammation nor otorrhea after 18 weeks post-insertion in the eardrums of guinea pigs, but had demonstrated severe degree of bioresorption. Histology confirmed the new PLC tubes were biocompatible. Analyses on the PLC tubes in the eardrums showed bioresorption profiles close to our in vitro degradation models. The bioresorbable antibiotic-loaded grommet tubes showed good predictability in functionality. The smooth surface and sustained release technology reduced the risk of tube infection. Tube functional duration of 18 weeks allowed sufficient ventilation period to treat OME. Our ongoing studies include modifying the surface properties with protein coating, optimizing the drug dosage in the tubes to enhance their performances, evaluating their functional outcome on hearing after full resoption of grommet tube and healing of eardrums, and developing animal model with OME to further validate our in vitro models.

Keywords: bioresorbable polymer, drug release, grommet tube, guinea pigs, otitis media with effusion

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Authors: Huey-Fang Sun, Wei-Kai Weng, Mei-Kuang Chao, Hui-Shan Hsu, Tsai-Yin Shih

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Psycho-social stress is important for mental illness and the presence of emotional and behavioral symptoms to an identifiable event is the central feature of adjustment disorders. However, whether patients with adjustment disorders have been raised in family with poor family functions and social supports and have higher stress perception than their peer group when they both experienced a similar stressful environment remains unknown. The specific aims of the study are to investigate the correlation among the family function, social supports and the level of stress perception and to test the hypothesis that military patients with adjustment disorders would have lower family function, lower social supports and higher stress perception than their healthy colleagues recruited in the same cohort for military services given their common exposure to similar stressful environments. Methods: The study was conducted in four hospitals of northern part of Taiwan from July 1, 2015 to June 30, 2017 and a matched case-control study design was used. The inclusion criteria for potential patient participants were psychiatric inpatients that serviced in military during the study period and met the diagnosis of adjustment disorders. Patients who had been admitted to psychiatric ward before or had illiteracy problem were excluded. A healthy military control sample matched by the same military service unit, gender, and recruited cohort was invited to participate the study as well. Totally 74 participants (37 patients and 37 controls) completed the consent forms and filled out the research questionnaires. Questionnaires used in the study included Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) as a measure of stress perception; Family APGAR as a measure of family function, and Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS) as a measure of social supports. Pearson correlation analysis and t-test were applied for statistical analysis. Results: The analysis results showed that PSS level significantly negatively correlated with three social support subscales (family subscale, r= -.37, P < .05; friend subscale, r= -.38, P < .05; significant other subscale, r= -.39, P < .05). A negative correlation between PSS level and Family APGAR only reached a borderline significant level (P= .06). The t-test results for PSS scores, Family APGAR levels, and three subscale scores of MSPSS between patient and control participants were all significantly different (P < .001, P < .05, P < .05, P < .05, P < .05, respectively) and the patient participants had higher stress perception scores, lower social supports and lower family function scores than the healthy control participants. Conclusions: Our study suggested that family function and social supports were negatively correlated with patients’ subjective stress perception. Military patients with adjustment disorders tended to have higher stress perception and lower family function and social supports than those military peers who remained healthy and still provided services in their military units.

Keywords: adjustment disorders, family function, social support, stress perception

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Authors: Andrea Cretu, Calin Cadar, Maria Miclaus, Lucian Barbu-Tudoran, Siegfried Stapf, Ioan Ardelean

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Additives and mineral admixtures have become an integral part of cement-based materials. It is common practice to add silica fume to cement based mixes in order to produce high-performance concrete. There is still a lack of scientific understanding regarding the effects that silica fume has on the microstructure of hydrated cement paste. The aim of the current study is to develop high-performance materials with low permeability and high resistance to flexural stress using silica fume and an organosilane. Organosilane bonds with cement grains and silica fume, influencing both the workability and the final properties of the mix, especially the pore size distributions and pore connectivity. Silica fume is a known pozzolanic agent which reacts with the calcium hydroxide in hydrated cement paste, producing more C-S-H and improving the mechanical properties of the mix. It is believed that particles of silica fume act as capillary pore fillers and nucleation centers for C-S-H and other hydration products. In order to be able to design cement-based materials with added silica fume and organosilane, it is necessary first to understand the formation of the porous network during hydration and to observe the distribution of pores and their connectivity. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) methods in low-fields are non-destructive and allow the study of cement-based materials from the standpoint of their porous structure. Other methods, such as XRD and SEM-EDS, help create a comprehensive picture of the samples, along with the classic mechanical tests (compressive and flexural strength measurements). The transverse relaxation time (T₂) was measured during the hydration of 16 samples prepared with two water/cement ratios (0.3 and 0.4) and different concentrations or organosilane (APTES, up to 2% by mass of cement) and silica fume (up to 6%). After their hydration, the pore size distribution was assessed using the same NMR approach on the samples filled with cyclohexane. The SEM-EDS and XRD measurements were applied on pieces and powders prepared from the samples that were used in mechanical testing, which were kept under water for 28 days. Adding silica fume does not influence the hydration dynamics of cement paste, while the addition of organosilane extends the dormancy stage up to 10 hours. The size distribution of the capillary pores is not influenced by the addition of silica fume or organosilane, while the connectivity of capillary pores is decreased only when there is organosilane in the mix. No filling effect is observed even at the highest concentration of silica fume. There is an apparent increase in flexural strength of samples prepared only with silica fume and a decrease for those prepared with organosilane, with a few exceptions. XRD reveals that the pozzolanic reactivity of silica fume can only be observed when there is no organosilane present and the SEM-EDS method reveals the pore distribution, as well as hydration products and the presence or absence of calcium hydroxide. The current work was funded by the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research, CNCS – UEFISCDI, through project PN-III-P2-2.1-PED-2016-0719.

Keywords: cement hydration, concrete admixtures, NMR, organosilane, porosity, silica fume

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Authors: Ammar Asma, Bouafia Nabiha, Ben Cheikh Asma, Ezzi Olfa, Mahjoub Mohamed, Sma Nesrine, Chouchène Imed, Boussarsar Hamadi, Njah Mansour

Abstract:

Background: Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is currently recognized as one of the most relevant causes of morbidity and mortality among intensive care unit (ICU) patients worldwide. Identifying modifiable risk factors for VAP could be helpful for future controlled interventional studies aiming at improving prevention of VAP. The purposes of this study were to determine the incidence and risk factors for VAP in in a Tunisian medical ICU. Materials / Methods: A retrospective case-control study design based on the prospective database collected over a 14-month period from September 15th, 2015 through November 15th, 2016 in an 8-bed medical ICU. Patients under ventilation for over 48 h were included. The number of cases was estimated by Epi-info Software with the power of statistical test equal to 90 %. Each case patient was successfully matched to two controls according to the length of mechanical ventilation (MV) before VAP for cases and the total length of MV in controls. VAP in the ICU was defined according to American Thoracic Society; Infectious Diseases Society of America guidelines. Early onset or late-onset VAP were defined whether the infectious process occurred within or after 96 h of ICU admission. Patients’ risk factors, causes of admission, comorbidities and respiratory specimens collected were reviewed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine variables associated with VAP with a p-value < 0.05. Results: During the period study, a total of 169 patients under mechanical ventilation were considered, 34 patients (20.11%) developed at least one episode of VAP in the ICU. The incidence rate for VAP was 14.88/1000 ventilation days. Among these cases, 9 (26.5 %) were early-onset VAP and 25 (73.5 %) were late-onset VAP. It was a certain diagnosis in 66.7% of cases. Tracheal aspiration was positive in 80% of cases. Multi-drug resistant Acinerobacter baumanii was the most common species detected in cases; 67.64% (n=23). The rate of mortality out of cases was 88.23% (n= 30). In univariate analysis, the patients with VAP were statistically more likely to suffer from cardiovascular diseases (p=0.035) and prolonged duration of sedation (p=0.009) and tracheostomy (p=0.001), they also had a higher number of re-intubation (p=0.017) and a longer total time of intubation (p=0.012). Multivariate analysis showed that cardiovascular diseases (OR= 4.44; 95% IC= [1.3 - 14]; p=0.016), tracheostomy (OR= 4.2; 95% IC= [1.16 -15.12]; p= 0.028) and prolonged duration of sedation (OR=1.21; 95% IC= [1.07, 1.36]; p=0.002) were independent risk factors for the development of VAP. Conclusion: VAP constitutes a therapeutic challenge in an ICU setting, therefore; strategies that effectively prevent VAP are needed. An infection control-training program intended to all professional heath care in this unit insisting on bundles and elaboration of procedures are planned to reduce effectively incidence rate of VAP.

Keywords: case control study, intensive care unit, risk factors, ventilator associated pneumonia

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Authors: D. S. N. K. Liyanagamage, V. Karunaratne, A. P. Attanayake, S. Jayasinghe

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Diabetes mellitus is an ever increasing global health problem which causes disability and untimely death. Current treatments using synthetic drugs have caused numerous adverse effects as well as complications, leading research efforts in search of safe and effective alternative treatments for diabetes mellitus. Even though there are traditional Ayurvedic remedies which are effective, due to a lack of scientific exploration, they have not been proven to be beneficial for common use. Hence the aim of this study is to evaluate the traditional remedy made of mixture of plant components, namely leaves of Murraya koenigii L. Spreng (Rutaceae), cloves of Allium sativum L. (Amaryllidaceae), fruits of Garcinia queasita Pierre (Clusiaceae) and seeds of Piper nigrum L. (Piperaceae) used for the treatment of diabetes. We report herein the preliminary results for the in vivo study of the anti-hyperglycaemic activity of the extracts of the above plant mixture in Wistar rats. A mixture made out of equal weights (100 g) of the above mentioned medicinal plant parts were extracted into cold water, hot water (3 h reflux) and water: acetone mixture (1:1) separately. Male wistar rats were divided into six groups that received different treatments. Diabetes mellitus was induced by intraperitoneal administration of streptozotocin at a dose of 70 mg/ kg in male Wistar rats in group two, three, four, five and six. Group one (N=6) served as the healthy untreated and group two (N=6) served as diabetic untreated control and both groups received distilled water. Cold water, hot water, and water: acetone plant extracts were orally administered in diabetic rats in groups three, four and five, respectively at different doses of 0.5 g/kg (n=6), 1.0 g/kg(n=6) and 1.5 g/kg(n=6) for each group. Glibenclamide (0.5 mg/kg) was administered to diabetic rats in group six (N=6) served as the positive control. The acute anti-hyperglycemic effect was evaluated over a four hour period using the total area under the curve (TAUC) method. The results of the test group of rats were compared with the diabetic untreated control. The TAUC of healthy and diabetic rats were 23.16 ±2.5 mmol/L.h and 58.31±3.0 mmol/L.h, respectively. A significant dose dependent improvement in acute anti-hyperglycaemic activity was observed in water: acetone extract (25%), hot water extract ( 20 %), and cold water extract (15 %) compared to the diabetic untreated control rats in terms of glucose tolerance (P < 0.05). Therefore, the results suggest that the plant mixture has a potent antihyperglycemic effect and thus validating their used in Ayurvedic medicine for the management of diabetes mellitus. Future studies will be focused on the determination of the long term in vivo anti-diabetic mechanisms and isolation of bioactive compounds responsible for the anti-diabetic activity.

Keywords: acute antihyperglycemic activity, herbal mixture, oral glucose tolerance test, Sri Lankan medicinal plant extracts

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Authors: G. Andreutti, G. Saccone, D. Lucariello, C. Pirozzi, S. Franchitti, R. Borrelli, C. Toscano, P. Caso, G. Ferraro, C. Pascarella

Abstract:

The reduction of greenhouse gases and pollution emissions is a worldwide environmental issue. The amount of CO₂ released by an aircraft is associated with the amount of fuel burned, so the improvement of engine thermo-mechanical efficiency and specific fuel consumption is a significant technological driver for aviation. Moreover, with the prospect that avgas will be phased out, an engine able to use more available and cheaper fuels is an evident advantage. An advanced aeronautical Diesel engine, because of its high efficiency and ability to use widely available and low-cost jet and diesel fuels, is a promising solution to achieve a more fuel-efficient aircraft. On the other hand, a Diesel engine has generally a higher overall weight, if compared with a gasoline one of same power performances. Fixing the MTOW, Max Take-Off Weight, and the operational payload, this extra-weight reduces the aircraft fuel fraction, partially vinifying the associated benefits. Therefore, an effort in weight saving manufacturing technologies is likely desirable. In this work, in order to achieve the mentioned goals, innovative Electron Beam Melting – EBM, Additive Manufacturing – AM technologies were applied to a two-stroke, common rail, GF56 Diesel engine, developed by the CMD Company for aeronautic applications. For this purpose, a consortium of academic, research and industrial partners, including CMD Company, Italian Aerospace Research Centre – CIRA, University of Naples Federico II and the University of Salerno carried out a technological project, funded by the Italian Minister of Education and Research – MIUR. The project aimed to optimize the baseline engine in order to improve its performance and increase its airworthiness features. This project was focused on the definition, design, development, and application of enabling technologies for performance improvement of GF56. Weight saving of this engine was pursued through the application of EBM-AM technologies and in particular using Arcam AB A2X machine, available at CIRA. The 3D printer processes titanium alloy micro-powders and it was employed to realize new connecting rods of the GF56 engine with an additive-oriented design approach. After a preliminary investigation of EBM process parameters and a thermo-mechanical characterization of titanium alloy samples, additive manufactured, innovative connecting rods were fabricated. These engine elements were structurally verified, topologically optimized, 3D printed and suitably post-processed. Finally, the overall performance improvement, on a typical General Aviation aircraft, was estimated, substituting the conventional engine with the optimized GF56 propulsion system.

Keywords: aeronautic propulsion, additive manufacturing, performance improvement, weight saving, piston engine

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Authors: Aliaksandr Volchak, Мaryna Barushka

Abstract:

The territory of Belarus is studied quite well in terms of hydrology but runoff fluctuations over time require more detailed research in order to forecast changes in rivers runoff in future. Generally, river runoff is shaped by natural climatic factors, but man-induced impact has become so big lately that it can be compared to natural processes in forming runoffs. In Belarus, a heavy man load on the environment was caused by large-scale land reclamation in the 1960s. Lands of southern Belarus were reclaimed most, which contributed to changes in runoff. Besides, global warming influences runoff. Today we observe increase in air temperature, decrease in precipitation, changes in wind velocity and direction. These result from cyclic climate fluctuations and, to some extent, the growth of concentration of greenhouse gases in the air. Climate change affects Belarus’s water resources in different ways: in hydropower industry, other water-consuming industries, water transportation, agriculture, risks of floods. In this research we have done an assessment of river runoff according to the scenarios of climate change and global climate forecast presented in the 4th and 5th Assessment Reports conducted by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and later specified and adjusted by experts from Vilnius Gediminas Technical University with the use of a regional climatic model. In order to forecast changes in climate and runoff, we analyzed their changes from 1962 up to now. This period is divided into two: from 1986 up to now in comparison with the changes observed from 1961 to 1985. Such a division is a common world-wide practice. The assessment has revealed that, on the average, changes in runoff are insignificant all over the country, even with its irrelevant increase by 0.5 – 4.0% in the catchments of the Western Dvina River and north-eastern part of the Dnieper River. However, changes in runoff have become more irregular both in terms of the catchment area and inter-annual distribution over seasons and river lengths. Rivers in southern Belarus (the Pripyat, the Western Bug, the Dnieper, the Neman) experience reduction of runoff all year round, except for winter, when their runoff increases. The Western Bug catchment is an exception because its runoff reduces all year round. Significant changes are observed in spring. Runoff of spring floods reduces but the flood comes much earlier. There are different trends in runoff changes in spring, summer, and autumn. Particularly in summer, we observe runoff reduction in the south and west of Belarus, with its growth in the north and north-east. Our forecast of runoff up to 2035 confirms the trend revealed in 1961 – 2015. According to it, in the future, there will be a strong difference between northern and southern Belarus, between small and big rivers. Although we predict irrelevant changes in runoff, it is quite possible that they will be uneven in terms of seasons or particular months. Especially, runoff can change in summer, but decrease in the rest seasons in the south of Belarus, whereas in the northern part the runoff is predicted to change insignificantly.

Keywords: assessment, climate fluctuation, forecast, river runoff

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