Search results for: risk based inspection

Authors: Jooyoung Park, Junkyeong Kim, Aoqi Zhang, Seunghee Park

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Non-destructive testing on cable is in great demand due to safety accidents at sites where many equipments using cables are installed. In this paper, the quantitative change of the obtained signal was analyzed using a magnetic flux leakage (MFL) method. A two-dimensional simulation was conducted with a FEM model replicating real elevator cables. The simulation data were compared for three parameters (depth of defect, width of defect and inspection velocity). Then, an experiment on same conditions was carried out to verify the results of the simulation. Signals obtained from both the simulation and the experiment were transformed to characterize the properties of the damage. Throughout the results, a cable damage detection based on an MFL method was confirmed to be feasible. In further study, it is expected that the MFL signals of an entire specimen will be gained and visualized as well.

Keywords: magnetic flux leakage (mfl), cable damage detection, non-destructive testing, numerical simulation

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Authors: Rusnardi Rahmat Putra, Junji Kiyono, Aiko Furukawa

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Several powerful earthquakes have struck Padang during recent years, one of the largest of which was an M 7.6 event that occurred on September 30, 2009 and caused more than 1000 casualties. Following the event, we conducted a 12-site microtremor array investigation to gain a representative determination of the soil condition of subsurface structures in Padang. From the dispersion curve of array observations, the central business district of Padang corresponds to relatively soft soil condition with Vs30 less than 400 m/s. because only one accelerometer existed, we simulated the 2009 Padang earthquake to obtain peak ground acceleration for all sites in Padang city. By considering the damage data of the 2009 Padang earthquake, we produced seismic risk vulnerability estimation of non-engineered houses for rock, medium and soft soil condition. We estimated the loss ratio based on the ground response, seismic hazard of Padang and the existing damaged to non-engineered structure houses due to Padang earthquake in 2009 data for several return periods of earthquake events.

Keywords: profile, Padang earthquake, microtremor array, seismic vulnerability

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Authors: Rashmi Dyondi, Shishir K. Jha

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The purpose of the paper is to address the strategic risk issues surrounding Hindi film distribution in Mumbai for a film distributor, who acts as an entrepreneur when launching a product (movie) in the market (film territory).The paper undertakes a fundamental review of films and risk in the Hindi film industry and applies Grounded Theory technique to understand the complex phenomena of risk taking behavior of the film distributors (both independent and studios) in Mumbai. Rich in-depth interviews with distributors are coded to develop core categories through constant comparison leading to conceptualization of the phenomena of interest. This paper is a first-of-its-kind-attempt to understand risk behavior of a distributor, which is akin to entrepreneurial risk behavior under conditions of uncertainty. Unlike extensive scholarly work on dynamics of Hollywood motion picture industry, Hindi film industry is an under-researched area till now. Especially how do film distributors perceive risk is an unexplored study for the Hindi film industry. Films are unique experience products and the film distributor acts as an entrepreneur assuming high risks given the uncertainty in the motion picture business. With the entry of mighty corporate studios and astronomical film budgets posing serious business threats to the independent distributors, there is a need for an in-depth qualitative enquiry (applying grounded theory technique) for unraveling the definition of risk for the independent distributors in Mumbai vis-à-vis the corporate studios. Need for good content was a common challenge to both the groups in the present state of the industry, however corporate studios with their distinct ideologies, focus on own productions and financial power faced different set of challenges than the independents (like achieving sustainability in business). Softer issues like market goodwill and relations with producers, honesty in business dealings and transparency came out to be clear markers for success of independents in long run. The findings from the qualitative analysis stress on different elements of risk and challenges as perceived by the two groups of distributors in the Hindi film industry and provide a future research agenda for empirical investigation of determinants of box-office success of Hindi films distributed in Mumbai.

Keywords: entrepreneurial risk behavior, film distribution strategy, Hindi film industry, risk

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Authors: Ismail Karaca, Ridvan Saracoglu, Omer Soner

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Fuzzy Logic, an advanced method to support decision-making, is used by various scientists in many disciplines. Fuzzy programming is a product of fuzzy logic, fuzzy rules, and implication. In marine science, fuzzy programming for ships is dramatically increasing together with autonomous ship studies. In this paper, a program to support the decision-making process for ship navigation has been designed. The program is produced in fuzzy logic and rules, by taking the marine accidents and expert opinions into account. After the program was designed, the program was tested by 46 ship accidents reported by the Transportation Safety Investigation Center of Turkey. Wind speed, sea condition, visibility, day/night ratio have been used as input data. They have been converted into a risk factor within the Fuzzy Logic Designer application and fuzzy rules set by marine experts. Finally, the expert's meteorological risk factor for each accident is compared with the program's risk factor, and the error rate was calculated. The main objective of this study is to improve the navigational safety of ships, by using the advance decision support model. According to the study result, fuzzy programming is a robust model that supports safe navigation.

Keywords: calculation of risk factor, fuzzy logic, fuzzy programming for ship, safety navigation of ships

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Authors: Ariful Islam, Showkat Ahmad Lone

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Statistical distributions have long been employed in the assessment of semiconductor devices and product reliability. The power function-distribution is one of the most important distributions in the modern reliability practice and can be frequently preferred over mathematically more complex distributions, such as the Weibull and the lognormal, because of its simplicity. Moreover, it may exhibit a better fit for failure data and provide more appropriate information about reliability and hazard rates in some circumstances. This study deals with estimating information about failure times of items under step-stress partially accelerated life tests for competing risk based on adoptive type-I progressive hybrid censoring criteria. The life data of the units under test is assumed to follow Mukherjee-Islam distribution. The point and interval maximum-likelihood estimations are obtained for distribution parameters and tampering coefficient. The performances of the resulting estimators of the developed model parameters are evaluated and investigated by using a simulation algorithm.

Keywords: adoptive progressive hybrid censoring, competing risk, mukherjee-islam distribution, partially accelerated life testing, simulation study

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Authors: Yonas Shuke Kitawa

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Background: Although malaria incidence has substantially fallen sharply over the past few years, the rate of decline varies by district, time, and malaria type. Despite this turn-down, malaria remains a major public health threat in various districts of Ethiopia. Consequently, the present study is aimed at developing a predictive model that helps to identify the spatio-temporal variation in malaria risk by multiple plasmodium species. Methods: We propose a multivariate spatio-temporal Bayesian model to obtain a more coherent picture of the temporally varying spatial variation in disease risk. The spatial autocorrelation in such a data set is typically modeled by a set of random effects that assign a conditional autoregressive prior distribution. However, the autocorrelation considered in such cases depends on a binary neighborhood matrix specified through the border-sharing rule. Over here, we propose a graph-based optimization algorithm for estimating the neighborhood matrix that merely represents the spatial correlation by exploring the areal units as the vertices of a graph and the neighbor relations as the series of edges. Furthermore, we used aggregated malaria count in southern Ethiopia from August 2013 to May 2019. Results: We recognized that precipitation, temperature, and humidity are positively associated with the malaria threat in the area. On the other hand, enhanced vegetation index, nighttime light (NTL), and distance from coastal areas are negatively associated. Moreover, nonlinear relationships were observed between malaria incidence and precipitation, temperature, and NTL. Additionally, lagged effects of temperature and humidity have a significant effect on malaria risk by either species. More elevated risk of P. falciparum was observed following the rainy season, and unstable transmission of P. vivax was observed in the area. Finally, P. vivax risks are less sensitive to environmental factors than those of P. falciparum. Conclusion: The improved inference was gained by employing the proposed approach in comparison to the commonly used border-sharing rule. Additionally, different covariates are identified, including delayed effects, and elevated risks of either of the cases were observed in districts found in the central and western regions. As malaria transmission operates in a spatially continuous manner, a spatially continuous model should be employed when it is computationally feasible.

Keywords: disease mapping, MSTCAR, graph-based optimization algorithm, P. falciparum, P. vivax, waiting matrix

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Authors: R. Gharari, N. Kojouri, R. Hosseini Aghdam, E. Alibeigi, B. Salmasian

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In this research, the WWER1000/V446 (a PWR Russian type reactor) is chosen as the case study. It is assumed that radioactive materials that release into the environment are more than allowable limit due to a complete failure of the ventilation system (reactor stack). In the following, the HOTSPOT and the RASCAL computational codes have been used and coupled with a developed program using MATLAB software to evaluate Total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) and cancer risk according to the BEIR equations for various human organs. In addition, effects of the containment spray system and climate conditions on the TEDE have been investigated. According to the obtained results, there is an inverse correlation between the received dose and the wind speed; the amount of the TEDE for wind speed 2 m/s and is more than wind speed for 14 m/s during the class A of the climate (2.168 and 0.444 mSv, respectively). Also, containment spray system can effect and reduce the amount of the fission products and TEDE. Furthermore, the probability of the cancer risk for women is more than men, and for children is more than adults. In addition, a specific emergency zonal planning is proposed. Results are promising in which the site selection of the WWER1000/V446 were considered safe for the public in this situation.

Keywords: TEDE, total effective dose equivalent, RASCAL and HOTSPOT codes, BEIR equations, cancer risk

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Authors: Tomasz L. Nawrocki

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Due to the growing global interest of investment society in innovative enterprises, as the objective of this research was adopted to examine the investment efficiency in shares of companies with innovative characteristics in the risk-return layout. The research was carried out for companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange taking into various consideration time ranges of investment. Obtained results show that in shorter periods of time, investors buy expectations connected with innovative companies and therefore the efficiency of investment in their shares is relatively high, but in the longer term expectations are revised by companies financial results, which in turn negatively affects the efficiency of investment in their shares.

Keywords: capital market, innovative company, investment strategies, risk and return analysis

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Authors: Alldila Hendy, Agi Satria

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Background: A colostomy procedure is an important part in the management of surgical procedures in some diseases involving the gastrointestinal tract. So it is necessary to find the factors that influence the occurrence of complications. Methods: This is a retrospective cross-sectional analytic study in Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital noting medical records of patients after the colostomy from January 2012 to December 2014 at the Division of Digestive Surgery. Results: In 136 cases of post-colostomy, 66 cases have complications, 14 is early-onset, and 52 is late-onset. 70 is without complications. Most complications are dermatitis, which is 31 (22.8%), cases of infection/abscess/fistula and intestinal obstruction are 13 (9.6%) and 5 patients (4.4%). A rare complication is colostomy retraction by 2 patients (1.5%), colostomy prolapse and necrosis/gangrene, which is only 3 patients (2.2%). A colostomy procedure in emergency surgery is riskier than elective surgery for complications after colostomy (p < 0.007, OR 2.85), Based on the operator who performs a colostomy procedure, the consultant had a lower risk of complications than fellow or resident (p < 0.0001). Based on the age factor, where the age of about 50 years has a risk of complications after colostomy (p < 0.018). Conclusion: The timing of operation (emergency or elective), age, and operator who perform a colostomy procedure have a significant relationship with an increased prevalence of complications after colostomy in RSCM.

Keywords: colostomy, complications, factors, procedure

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Authors: Sanpachai Huvanandana, Settapong Malisuwan, Soparwan Tongyuak, Prust Pannachet, Anong Phoepueak, Navneet Madan

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Many regions of Thailand are prone to flooding due to tropical climate. A commonly increasing precipitation in this continent results in risk of flooding. Many efforts have been implemented such as drainage control system, multiple dams, and irrigation canals. In order to decide where the drainages, dams, and canal should be appropriately located, the flooding risk area should be determined. This paper is aimed to identify the appropriate features that can be used to classify the flooding risk area in Thailand. Several features have been analyzed and used to classify the area. Non-supervised clustering techniques have been used and the results have been compared with ten years average actual flooding area.

Keywords: flood area clustering, geographical information system, flood features

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Authors: Felix Olajide Ibikunle

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Introductory Statement: Sustainable participation of teenagers in sports requires deliberate and concerted plans and managerial policy rooted in the “philosophy of catch them young.” At risk, teenagers need proper integration into societal aspiration: This direction will go a long way to streamline them into security breaches and attractive nuisance free lifestyles. Basic Methodology: The population consists of children between 13-19 years old. A proportionate sampling size technique of 60% was adopted to select seven zones out of 11 geo-political zones in the Ibadan metropolis. Qualitative information and interview were used to collect needed information. The majority of the teenagers were out of school, street hawkers, motor pack touts and unserious vocation apprentices. These groups have the potential for security breaches in the metropolis and beyond. Five hundred and thirty-four (534) respondents were used for the study. They were drawn from Ojoo, Akingbile and Moniya axis = 72; Agbowo, Ajibode and Apete axis = 74; Akobo, Basorun and Idi-ape axis 79; Wofun, Monatan and Iyana-Church axis = 78; Molete, Oke-ado and Oke-Bola axis = 75; Beere, Odinjo, Elekuro axis = 77; Eleyele, Ologuneru and Alesinloye axis = 79. Major Findings: Multiple regression was used to analyze the independent variables and percentages. The respondents' average age was 15.6 years old, and 100% were male. The instrument (questionnaire) used yielded; sport preference (r = 0.72), intervention (r = 0.68), and sustainable participation (r = 0.70). The relative contributions of sport preference on the participation of at risk teenagers was (F-ratio = 1.067); Intervention contribution of sport on the participation of at risk teenagers = produced (F-ratio of 12.095) was significant while, sustainable participation of at risk teenagers produced (F-ratio = 1.062) was significant. Closing Statement: The respondents’ sport preference stimulated their participation in sports. The intervention exposed at risk-teenagers to coaching, which activated their interest and participation in sports. At the same time, sustainable participation contributed positively to evolving at risk teenagers' participation in their preferred sport.

Keywords: sport, preference, intervention, teenagers, sustainable, participation and risk teenagers

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Authors: Malik SS, Masood N, Mubarik S, Khadim TM

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Introduction: Xeroderma pigmentosum group G (XPG) gene plays a crucial role in the correction of UV-induced DNA damage through nucleotide excision repair pathway. Single nucleotide polymorphisms in XPG gene have been reported to be associated with different cancers. Current case-control study was designed to evaluate the relationship between one of the most frequently found XPG (rs1047768 T>C) polymorphism and breast cancer risk. Methodology: A total of 200 individuals were screened for this polymorphism including 100 pathologically confirmed breast cancer cases and age-matched 100 controls. Genotyping was carried out using Tetra amplification-refractory mutation system (ARMS) PCR and results were confirmed by gel electrophoresis. Results: Conditional logistic regression analysis showed significant association between TC genotype (OR: 8.9, CI: 2.0 – 38.7) and increased breast cancer risk. Although homozygous CC genotype was more frequent in patients as compared to controls, but it was statistically non-significant (OR: 3.9, CI: 0.4 – 35.7). Conclusion: In conclusion, XPG (rs1047768 T>C) polymorphism may contribute towards increased risk of breast cancer but other polymorphisms may also be evaluated to elucidate their role in breast cancer.

Keywords: XPG, breast cancer, NER, ARMS-PCR

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

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Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: conditional generative adversarial net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series

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Authors: Ewa M. Laskowska, Jorn Vatn

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Industry 4.0 focuses on digital optimization of industrial processes. The idea is to use extracted data in order to build a decision support model enabling use of those data for real time decision making. In terms of predictive maintenance, the desired decision support tool would be a model enabling prognostics of system's health based on the current condition of considered equipment. Within area of system prognostics and health management, a commonly used health indicator is Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL) of a system. Because the RUL is a random variable, it has to be estimated based on available health indicators. Health indicators can be of different types and come from different sources. They can be process variables, equipment performance variables, data related to number of experienced failures, etc. The aim of this study is the analysis of performance variables of emergency shutdown valves (ESV) used in oil and gas industry. ESV is inspected periodically, and at each inspection torque and time of valve operation are registered. The data will be analyzed by means of machine learning or statistical analysis. The purpose is to investigate whether the available data could be used as a health indicator for a prognostic purpose. The second objective is to examine what is the most efficient way to incorporate the data into predictive model. The idea is to check whether the data can be applied in form of explanatory variables in Markov process or whether other stochastic processes would be a more convenient to build an RUL model based on the information coming from registered data.

Keywords: emergency shutdown valves, health indicator, prognostics, remaining useful lifetime, RUL

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Authors: Anderson Ngowa Chembe, John Olukuru

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Greenhouse emissions by human activities are known to irreversibly increase global temperatures through the greenhouse effect. This study seeks to propose a mortality model with sensitivity to heat-change effects as one of the underlying parameters in the model. As such, the study sought to establish the relationship between greenhouse emissions and mortality indices in five OECD countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada & Germany). Upon the establishment of the relationship using correlation analysis, an additional parameter that accounts for the sensitivity of heat-changes to mortality rates was incorporated in the Lee-Carter model. Based on the proposed model, new parameter estimates were calculated using iterative algorithms for optimization. Finally, the goodness of fit for the original Lee-Carter model and the proposed model were compared using deviance comparison. The proposed model provides a better fit to mortality rates especially in USA, UK and Germany where the mortality indices have a strong positive correlation with the level of greenhouse emissions. The results of this study are of particular importance to actuaries, demographers and climate-risk experts who seek to use better mortality-modeling techniques in the wake of heat effects caused by increased greenhouse emissions.

Keywords: climate risk, greenhouse emissions, Lee-Carter model, OECD

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Authors: Kwi Young Kang

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Objective: To determine the association between inflammatory and structural lesions on sacroiliac joint (SIJ) MRI and BMD and to identify risk factors for low BMD in patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). Methods: Seventy-six patients who fulfilled the ASAS axSpA criteria were enrolled. All underwent SIJ MRI and BMD measurement at the lumbar spine, femoral neck, and total hip. Inflammatory and structural lesions on SIJ MRI were scored. Laboratory tests and assessment of radiographic and disease activity were performed at the time of MRI. The association between SIJ MRI findings and BMD was evaluated. Results: Among the 76 patients, 14 (18%) had low BMD. Patients with low BMD showed significantly higher bone marrow edema (BME) and deep BME scores on MRI than those with normal BMD (p<0.047 and 0.007, respectively). Inflammatory lesions on SIJ MRI correlated with BMD at the femoral neck and total hip. Multivariate analysis identified the presence of deep BME on SIJ MRI, increased CRP, and sacroiliitis on X-ray as risk factors for low BMD (OR: 5.6, 14.6, and 2.5, respectively). Conclusion: The presence of deep BME on SIJ MRI, increased CRP levels, and severity of sacroiliitis on X-ray were independent risk factors for low BMD.

Keywords: axial spondyloarthritis, sacroiliac joint MRI, bone mineral density, sacroiliitis

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding

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Authors: Omar Moafaq Saleh Aljanabi, Noradiva Hamzah, Ruhanita Maelah

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In today’s challenging global economy, which is driven by information and knowledge, risk management is undergoing a great change, as organizations shift from traditional and compartmental risk management to an enterprise-wide approach. Enterprise risk management (ERM), which aims at increasing the sustainability of an organization and achieving competitive advantage, is gaining global attention and fast becoming an essential concern in all industries. Furthermore, in order to be effective, ERM should be managed by managers with high-level skills and knowledge. Despite the importance of the knowledge embedded in, there remains a paucity of evidence concerning how human capital could influence the organization’s ERM. Responses from 116 public listed companies (PLCs) on the main market of Bursa Malaysia were analyzed using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). This study found that there is a significant association between ERM and organizational performance. The results also indicate that human capital has a positive moderating effect on the relationship between ERM and performance. The study contributes to the ERM literature by providing empirical evidence on the relationship between ERM, human capital, and organizational performance. Findings from this study also provide guidelines for managers, policy makers, and the regulatory bodies, to evaluate the ERM practices in PLCs.

Keywords: enterprise risk management, human capital, organizational performance, Malaysian public listed companies

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Authors: Eun Hui Bae, Sang Yeob Lim, Bongseong Kim, Tae Ryom Oh, Su Hyun Song, Sang Heon Suh, Hong Sang Choi, Eun Mi Yang, Chang Seong Kim, Seong Kwon Ma, Kyung-Do Han, Soo Wan Kim

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Background: Recent hypertension guidelines have recommended lower blood pressure (BP) targets in high-risk patients. However, there are no specific guidelines based on age or systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP, respectively). We aimed to assess the effects of age-related BP on the development of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in patients with diabetes. Methods: A total of 2,563,870 patients with DM aged >20 years were selected from the Korean National Health Screening Program from 2009 to 2012 and followed up until the end of 2019. Participants were categorized into age and BP groups, and the hazard ratios (HRs) for ESRD were calculated. Results: During a median follow-up of 7.15 years, the incidence rates of ESRD increased with increasing SBP and DBP. The HR for ESRD was the highest in patients younger than 40 years of age with DBP ≥ 100 mmHg. The effect of SBP and DBP on ESRD development was attenuated with age (interaction p-value was <0.0001 for age and SBP and 0.0022 for age and DBP). The subgroup analysis for sex, anti-hypertension medication, and history of chronic kidney disease (CKD) showed higher HRs for ESRD among males younger than 40 years, not taking anti-hypertension medications and CKD compared to those among females older than 40 years, anti-hypertension medication and non-CKD groups. Conclusions: Higher SBP and DBP increase the risk of developing ESRD in patients with diabetes, and in particular, younger individuals face greater risk. Therefore, intensive BP management is warranted in younger patients to prevent ESRD.

Keywords: hypertension, young adult, end-stage renal disease, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, blood pressure

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Authors: Peter David Reiss

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The concept of the psychosis prodrome has allowed for the identification of adolescent and young adult patients who have a significantly elevated risk of developing schizophrenia spectrum disorders. A number of different interventions have been tested in order to prevent or delay progression of symptoms. To date, there has been no consistent meta-analytical evidence to support efficacy of antipsychotic treatment for patients in the prodromal state, and their use remains therefore inconclusive. Although antipsychotics may manage symptoms transiently, they have not been found to prevent or delay onset of psychotic disorders. Furthermore, pharmacological intervention in high-risk individuals remains controversial, because of the antipsychotic side effect profile in a population in which only about 20 to 35 percent will eventually convert to psychosis over a two-year period, with even after two years conversion rates not exceeding 30 to 40 percent. This general estimate is additionally problematic, in that it ignores the fact that there is significant variation in individual risk among clinical high-risk cases. The current lack of reliable tests for at-risk patients makes it difficult to justify individual treatment decisions. Preventive treatment should ideally be dictated by an individual’s risk while minimizing potentially harmful medication exposure. This requires more accurate predictive assessments by using valid and accessible prognostic markers. The following will compare prediction and risk modification potential of behavioral biomarkers such as disturbances of basic sense of self and emotion awareness, neurocognitive biomarkers such as attention, working and declarative memory, and neurophysiological biomarkers such as glutamatergic abnormalities and NMDA receptor dysfunction. Identification of robust biomarkers could therefore not only provide more reliable means of psychosis prediction, but also help test and develop new clinical interventions targeted at the prodromal state.

Keywords: at-risk mental state, biomarkers, glutamatergic system, NMDA receptor, psychosis prodrome, schizophrenia

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Authors: S. Selman, T. Gout

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Microbial keratitis is a serious complication of contact lens wear that can be vision and eye-threatening. Diverse presentations relating to contact lens wear include dry corneal surface, corneal infiltrate, ulceration, scarring, and complete corneal melt leading to perforation. Contact lens wear is a major risk factor and, as such, is an important consideration in any patient presenting with a red eye in the primary care setting. This paper aims to provide an overview of the risk factors, common organisms, and spectrum of contact lens-associated keratitis (CLAK) complications. It will highlight some of the salient points relevant to the assessment and workup of patients suspected of CLAK in the emergency department based on the recent literature and therapeutic guidelines. An overview of the management principles will also be provided.

Keywords: microbial keratitis, corneal pathology, contact lens-associated complications, painful vision loss

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Authors: Jeff Chak-Fu Wong, Tony Chun Yin Yip

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The transition from secondary school to university seems exciting for many first-year students but can be more challenging than expected. Enabling instructors to know students’ learning habits and styles enhances their understanding of the students’ learning backgrounds, allows teachers to provide better support for their students, and has therefore high potential to improve teaching quality and learning, especially in any mathematics-related courses. The aim of this research is to collect students’ data using online surveys, to analyze students’ factors using learning analytics and educational data mining and to discover the characteristics of the students at risk of falling behind in their studies based on students’ previous academic backgrounds and collected data. In this paper, we use correlation-based distance methods and mutual information for measuring student factor relationships. We then develop a factor network using the Minimum Spanning Tree method and consider further study for analyzing the topological properties of these networks using social network analysis tools. Under the framework of mutual information, two graph-based feature filtering methods, i.e., unsupervised and supervised infinite feature selection algorithms, are used to analyze the results for students’ data to rank and select the appropriate subsets of features and yield effective results in identifying the factors affecting students at risk of failing. This discovered knowledge may help students as well as instructors enhance educational quality by finding out possible under-performers at the beginning of the first semester and applying more special attention to them in order to help in their learning process and improve their learning outcomes.

Keywords: students' academic performance, correlation-based distance method, social network analysis, feature selection, graph-based feature filtering method

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Authors: Wilfred A. Abiaa, Chibundu N. Ezekiel, Benedikt Warth, Michael Sulyok, Paul C. Turner, Rudolf Krska, Paul F. Moundipa

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Mycotoxins are a wide range of toxic secondary metabolites of fungi that contaminate various food commodities worldwide especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Such contamination seriously compromises food safety and quality posing a serious problem for human health as well as to trade and the economy. Their concentrations depend on various factors, such as the commodity itself, climatic conditions, storage conditions, seasonal variances, and processing methods. When humans consume foods contaminated by mycotoxins, they exert toxic effects to their health through various modes of actions. Rural populations in sub-Saharan Africa, are exposed to dietary mycotoxins, but it is supposed that exposure levels and health risks associated with mycotoxins between SSA countries may vary. Dietary exposures and health risk assessment studies have been limited by lack of equipment for the proper assessment of the associated health implications on consumer populations when they eat contaminated agricultural products. As such, mycotoxin research is premature in several SSA nations with product evaluation for mycotoxin loads below/above legislative limits being inadequate. Few nations have health risk assessment reports mainly based on direct quantification of the toxins in foods ('external exposure') and linking food levels with data from food frequency questionnaires. Nonetheless, the assessment of the exposure and health risk to mycotoxins requires more than the traditional approaches. Only a fraction of the mycotoxins in contaminated foods reaches the blood stream and exert toxicity ('internal exposure'). Also, internal exposure is usually smaller than external exposure thus dependence on external exposure alone may induce confounders in risk assessment. Some studies from SSA earlier focused on biomarker analysis mainly on aflatoxins while a few recent studies have concentrated on the multi-biomarker analysis of exposures in urine providing probable associations between observed disease occurrences and dietary mycotoxins levels. As a result, new techniques that could assess the levels of exposures directly in body tissue or fluid, and possibly link them to the disease state of individuals became urgent.

Keywords: mycotoxins, biomarkers, exposure assessment, health risk assessment, sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Marcelo Dias Carvalho, Leticia Ishikawa

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Supply Chain Risk Management refers to a set of strategies used by companies to avoid supply chain disruption caused by damage at production facilities, natural disasters, capacity issues, inventory problems, incorrect forecasts, and delays. Many companies use the techniques of the Toyota Production System, which in a way goes against a better management of supply chain risks. This paper studies key events in some multinationals to analyze the trade-off between the best supply chain risk management techniques and management policies designed to create lean enterprises. The result of a good balance of these actions is the reduction of losses, increased customer trust in the company and better preparedness to face the general risks of a supply chain.

Keywords: just in time, lean manufacturing, supply chain disruptions, supply chain management

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Authors: Navah Z. Ratzon, Rachel Shichrur

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Background: Many studies have assessed and identified the risk factors of safe driving, but there is relatively little research-based evidence concerning the ability to improve the driving skills of drivers in general and in particular of bus drivers, who are defined as a population at risk. Accidents involving bus drivers can endanger dozens of passengers and cause high direct and indirect damages. Objective: To examine the effectiveness of a metacognitive-functional intervention program for the reduction of risk factors among professional drivers relative to a control group. Methods: The study examined 77 bus drivers working for a large public company in the center of the country, aged 27-69. Twenty-one drivers continued to the intervention stage; four of them dropped out before the end of the intervention. The intervention program we developed was based on previous driving models and the guiding occupational therapy practice framework model in Israel, while adjusting the model to the professional driving in public transportation and its particular risk factors. Treatment focused on raising awareness to safe driving risk factors identified at prescreening (ergonomic, perceptual-cognitive and on-road driving data), with reference to the difficulties that the driver raises and providing coping strategies. The intervention has been customized for each driver and included three sessions of two hours. The effectiveness of the intervention was tested using objective measures: In-Vehicle Data Recorders (IVDR) for monitoring natural driving data, traffic accident data before and after the intervention, and subjective measures (occupational performance questionnaire for bus drivers). Results: Statistical analysis found a significant difference between the degree of change in the rate of IVDR perilous events (t(17)=2.14, p=0.046), before and after the intervention. There was significant difference in the number of accidents per year before and after the intervention in the intervention group (t(17)=2.11, p=0.05), but no significant change in the control group. Subjective ratings of the level of performance and of satisfaction with performance improved in all areas tested following the intervention. The change in the ‘human factors/person’ field, was significant (performance : t=- 2.30, p=0.04; satisfaction with performance : t=-3.18, p=0.009). The change in the ‘driving occupation/tasks’ field, was not significant but showed a tendency toward significance (t=-1.94, p=0.07,). No significant differences were found in driving environment-related variables. Conclusions: The metacognitive-functional intervention significantly improved the objective and subjective measures of safety of bus drivers’ driving. These novel results highlight the potential contribution of occupational therapists, using metacognitive functional treatment, to preventing car accidents among the healthy drivers population and improving the well-being of these drivers. This study also enables familiarity with advanced technologies of IVDR systems and enriches the knowledge of occupational therapists in regards to using a wide variety of driving assessment tools and making the best practice decisions.

Keywords: bus drivers, IVDR, human risk factors, metacognitive-functional intervention

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Authors: Yo Fukutani, Shuji Moriguchi, Takuma Kotani, Terada Kenjiro

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If risk management of the assets owned by companies, risk assessment of real estate portfolio, and risk identification of the entire region are to be implemented, it is necessary to consider simultaneous damage to multiple buildings. In this research, the Sagami Trough earthquake tsunami that could have a significant effect on the Japanese capital region is focused on, and a method is proposed for simultaneous damage assessment using copulas that can take into consideration the correlation of tsunami depths and building damage between two sites. First, the tsunami inundation depths at two sites were simulated by using a nonlinear long-wave equation. The tsunamis were simulated by varying the slip amount (five cases) and the depths (five cases) for each of 10 sources of the Sagami Trough. For each source, the frequency distributions of the tsunami inundation depth were evaluated by using the response surface method. Then, Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted, and frequency distributions of tsunami inundation depth were evaluated at the target sites for all sources of the Sagami Trough. These are marginal distributions. Kendall’s tau for the tsunami inundation simulation at two sites was 0.83. Based on this value, the Gaussian copula, t-copula, Clayton copula, and Gumbel copula (n = 10,000) were generated. Then, the simultaneous distributions of the damage rate were evaluated using the marginal distributions and the copulas. For the correlation of the tsunami inundation depth at the two sites, the expected value hardly changed compared with the case of no correlation, but the damage rate of the ninety-ninth percentile value was approximately 2%, and the maximum value was approximately 6% when using the Gumbel copula.

Keywords: copulas, Monte-Carlo simulation, probabilistic risk assessment, tsunamis

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Authors: Sintayehu W. Dejene, Ignas M. A. Heitkönig, Herbert H. T. Prins, Zewdu K. Tessema, Willem F. de Boer

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Current theories on diversity-disease relationships describe host species diversity and species identity as important factors influencing disease risk, either diluting or amplifying disease prevalence in a community. Whereas the simple term ‘diversity’ embodies a set of animal community characteristics, it is not clear how different measures of species diversity are correlated with disease risk. We, therefore, tested the effects of species richness, Pielou’s evenness and Shannon’s diversity on bTB risk in cattle in the Afar Region and Awash National Park between November 2013 and April 2015. We also analysed the identity effect of a particular species and the effect of host habitat use overlap on bTB risk. We used the comparative intradermal tuberculin test to assess the number of bTB infected cattle. Our results suggested a dilution effect through species evenness. We found that the identity effect of greater kudu - a maintenance host – confounded the dilution effect of species diversity on bTB risk. bTB infection was positively correlated with habitat use overlap between greater kudu and cattle. Different diversity indices have to be considered together for assessing diversity-disease relationships, for understanding the underlying causal mechanisms. We posit that unpacking diversity metrics is also relevant for formulating control strategies to manage cattle in ecosystems characterized by seasonally limited resources and intense wildlife-livestock interactions.

Keywords: evenness, diversity, greater kudu, identity effect, maintenance hosts, multi-host disease ecology, habitat use overlap

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Authors: Ainura Tursunalieva, Irene Hudson

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Continuous improvement of both the quality and safety of health care is an important goal in Australia and internationally. The intensive care unit (ICU) receives patients with a wide variety of and severity of illnesses. Accurately identifying patients at risk of developing complications or dying is crucial to increasing healthcare efficiency. Thus, it is essential for clinicians and researchers to have a robust framework capable of evaluating the risk profile of a patient. ICU scoring systems provide such a framework. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II are ICU scoring systems frequently used for assessing the severity of acute illness. These scoring systems collect multiple risk factors for each patient including physiological measurements then render the assessment outcomes of individual risk factors into a single numerical value. A higher score is related to a more severe patient condition. Furthermore, the Mortality Probability Model II uses logistic regression based on independent risk factors to predict a patient’s probability of mortality. An important overlooked limitation of SAPS II and MPM II is that they do not, to date, include interaction terms between a patient’s vital signs. This is a prominent oversight as it is likely there is an interplay among vital signs. The co-existence of certain conditions may pose a greater health risk than when these conditions exist independently. One barrier to including such interaction terms in predictive models is the dimensionality issue as it becomes difficult to use variable selection. We propose an innovative scoring system which takes into account a dependence structure among patient’s vital signs, such as systolic and diastolic blood pressures, heart rate, pulse interval, and peripheral oxygen saturation. Copulas will capture the dependence among normally distributed and skewed variables as some of the vital sign distributions are skewed. The estimated dependence parameter will then be incorporated into the traditional scoring systems to adjust the points allocated for the individual vital sign measurements. The same dependence parameter will also be used to create an alternative copula-based model for predicting a patient’s probability of mortality. The new copula-based approach will accommodate not only a patient’s trajectories of vital signs but also the joint dependence probabilities among the vital signs. We hypothesise that this approach will produce more stable assessments and lead to more time efficient and accurate predictions. We will use two data sets: (1) 250 ICU patients admitted once to the Chui Regional Hospital (Kyrgyzstan) and (2) 37 ICU patients’ agitation-sedation profiles collected by the Hunter Medical Research Institute (Australia). Both the traditional scoring approach and our copula-based approach will be evaluated using the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic to indicate the discriminative ability (or area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve), and goodness-of-fit statistics for calibration. We will also report discrimination and calibration values and establish visualization of the copulas and high dimensional regions of risk interrelating two or three vital signs in so-called higher dimensional ROCs.

Keywords: copula, intensive unit scoring system, ROC curves, vital sign dependence

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Authors: Edward Hage, Pieter Lietaert, Gabriel Abedrabbo

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Musculoskeletal disorders are an important category of work-related diseases. They are often caused by working in non-ergonomic postures and are preventable with proper workplace design, possibly including human-machine collaboration. This paper presents a methodology and a supporting software prototype to design a simple assembly cell with minimal ergonomic risk. The methodology helps to determine the optimal position and orientation of workpieces and workplace resources for specific operator assembly actions. The methodology is tested on an industrial use case: a collaborative robot (cobot) assisted assembly of a clamping device. It is shown that the automated methodology results in a workplace design with significantly reduced ergonomic risk to the operator compared to a manual design of the cell.

Keywords: ergonomics optimization, design for ergonomics, workplace design, pose generation

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Authors: Federica Di Marcantonio, Antoine Leblois, Wolfgang Göbel, Hervè Kerdiles

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Weather-related shocks can threaten the ability of farmers to maintain their agricultural output and food security levels. Informal coping mechanisms (i.e. migration or community risk sharing) have always played a significant role in mitigating the negative effects of weather-related shocks in Ethiopia, but they have been found to be an incomplete strategy, particularly as a response to covariate shocks. Particularly, as an alternative to the traditional risk pooling products, an innovative form of insurance known as Index-based Insurance has received a lot of attention from researchers and international organizations, leading to an increased number of pilot initiatives in many countries. Despite the potential benefit of the product in protecting the livelihoods of farmers and pastoralists against climate shocks, to date there has been an unexpectedly low uptake. Using information from current pilot projects on index-based insurance in Ethiopia, this paper discusses the determinants of uptake that have so far undermined the scaling-up of the products, by focusing in particular on weather data availability, price affordability and willingness to pay. We found that, aside from data constraint issues, high price elasticity and low willingness to pay represent impediments to the development of the market. These results, bring us to rethink the role of index insurance as products for enhancing smallholders’ response to covariate shocks, and particularly for improving their food security.

Keywords: index-based insurance, willingness to pay, satellite information, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 400