Search results for: predictive policing

Authors: Mahdiyeh Zafaranchi

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With rapid development of urbanization and improvement of living standards in the world, energy consumption and carbon emissions of the building sector are expected to increase in the near future; because of that, energy-saving issues have become more important among the engineers. Besides, the building sector is a major contributor to energy consumption and carbon emissions. The concept of efficient building appeared as a response to the need for reducing energy demand in this sector which has the main purpose of shifting from standard buildings to low-energy buildings. Although energy-saving should happen in all steps of a building during the life cycle (material production, construction, demolition), the main concept of efficient energy building is saving energy during the life expectancy of a building by using passive and active systems, and should not sacrifice comfort and quality to reach these goals. The main aim of this study is to investigate passive strategies (do not need energy consumption or use renewable energy) to achieve energy-efficient buildings. Energy retrofit measures were explored by eQuest software using a case study as a base model. The study investigates predictive accuracy for the major factors like thermal transmittance (U-value) of the material, windows, shading devices, thermal insulation, rate of the exposed envelope, window/wall ration, lighting system in the energy consumption of the building. The base model was located in Istanbul, Turkey. The impact of eight passive parameters on energy consumption had been indicated. After analyzing the base model by eQuest, a final scenario was suggested which had a good energy performance. The results showed a decrease in the U-values of materials, the rate of exposing buildings, and windows had a significant effect on energy consumption. Finally, savings in electric consumption of about 10.5%, and gas consumption by about 8.37% in the suggested model were achieved annually.

Keywords: efficient building, electric and gas consumption, eQuest, Passive parameters

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Authors: Neha Singh, Shristi Singh

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Accidents involving motor vehicles are more likely to cause serious injuries and fatalities. It also has a host of other perpetual issues, such as the regular loss of life and goods in accidents. To solve these issues, appropriate measures must be implemented, such as establishing an autonomous incident detection system that makes use of machine learning and artificial intelligence. In order to reduce traffic accidents, this article examines the overview of artificial intelligence and machine learning in autonomous event detection systems. The paper explores the major issues, prospective solutions, and use of artificial intelligence and machine learning in road transportation systems for minimising traffic accidents. There is a lot of discussion on additional, fresh, and developing approaches that less frequent accidents in the transportation industry. The study structured the following subtopics specifically: traffic management using machine learning and artificial intelligence and an incident detector with these two technologies. The internet of vehicles and vehicle ad hoc networks, as well as the use of wireless communication technologies like 5G wireless networks and the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence for the planning of road transportation systems, are elaborated. In addition, safety is the primary concern of road transportation. Route optimization, cargo volume forecasting, predictive fleet maintenance, real-time vehicle tracking, and traffic management, according to the review's key conclusions, are essential for ensuring the safety of road transportation networks. In addition to highlighting research trends, unanswered problems, and key research conclusions, the study also discusses the difficulties in applying artificial intelligence to road transport systems. Planning and managing the road transportation system might use the work as a resource.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, machine learning, incident detector, road transport systems, traffic management, automatic incident detection, deep learning

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Authors: Aihong Zhao, Priya Sastry, Mark L Field, Mohamad Bashir, Arvind Singh, David Richens

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Objectives: Intramural haematoma (IMH) is one of the pathologies, along with acute aortic dissection, that present as Acute Aortic Syndrome (AAS). Evidence suggests that unlike aortic dissection, some intramural haematomas may regress with medical management. However, intramural haematomas have been traditionally managed like acute aortic dissections. Given that some of these pathologies may regress with conservative management, it would be useful to be able to identify which of these may not need high risk emergency intervention. A computational aortic model was used in this study to try and identify intramural haematomas with risk of progression to aortic dissection. Methods: We created a computational model of the aorta with luminal blood flow. Reports in the literature have identified 11 mm as the radial clot thickness that is associated with heightened risk of progression of intramural haematoma. Accordingly, haematomas of varying sizes were implanted in the modeled aortic wall to test this hypothesis. The model was exposed to physiological blood flows and the stresses and strains in each layer of the aortic wall were recorded. Results: Size and shape of clot were seen to affect the magnitude of aortic stresses. The greatest stresses and strains were recorded in the intima of the model. When the haematoma exceeded 10 mm in all dimensions, the stress on the intima reached breaking point. Conclusion: Intramural clot size appears to be a contributory factor affecting aortic wall stress. Our computer simulation corroborates clinical evidence in the literature proposing that IMH diameter greater than 11 mm may be predictive of progression. This preliminary report suggests finite element modelling of the aortic wall may be a useful process by which to examine putative variables important in predicting progression or regression of intramural haematoma.

Keywords: intramural haematoma, acute aortic syndrome, finite element analysis,

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Authors: Dawit Abay Tesfamariam

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Ethiopia’s Climate- Resilient Green Economy (ECRGE) strategy focuses mainly on generating and proper utilization of renewable energy (RE). Nonetheless, the current electricity generation of the country is dominated by hydropower. The data collected in 2016 by Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) indicates that the intermittent RE sources from solar and wind energy were only 8 %. On the other hand, the EEP electricity generation plan in 2030 indicates that 36.1 % of the energy generation share will be covered by solar and wind sources. Thus, a case study was initiated to model and compute the balance and consumption of electricity in three different scenarios: 2016, 2025, and 2030 using the EnergyPLAN Model (EPM). Initially, the model was validated using the 2016 annual power-generated data to conduct the EnergyPLAN (EP) analysis for two predictive scenarios. The EP simulation analysis using EPM for 2016 showed that there was no significant excess power generated. Thus, the EPM was applied to analyze the role of energy storage in RE in Ethiopian grid systems. The results of the EP simulation analysis showed there will be excess production of 402 /7963 MW average and maximum, respectively, in 2025. The excess power was in the three rainy months of the year (June, July, and August). The outcome of the model also showed that in the dry seasons of the year, there would be excess power production in the country. Consequently, based on the validated outcomes of EP indicates, there is a good reason to think about other alternatives for the utilization of excess energy and storage of RE. Thus, from the scenarios and model results obtained, it is realistic to infer that if the excess power is utilized with a storage system, it can stabilize the grid system and be exported to support the economy. Therefore, researchers must continue to upgrade the current and upcoming storage system to synchronize with potentials that can be generated from renewable energy.

Keywords: renewable energy, power, storage, wind, energy plan

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Authors: Abdesselem Dakhli, Wajdi Bellil, Chokri Ben Amar

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DNA Barcode, a short mitochondrial DNA fragment, made up of three subunits; a phosphate group, sugar and nucleic bases (A, T, C, and G). They provide good sources of information needed to classify living species. Such intuition has been confirmed by many experimental results. Species classification with DNA Barcode sequences has been studied by several researchers. The classification problem assigns unknown species to known ones by analyzing their Barcode. This task has to be supported with reliable methods and algorithms. To analyze species regions or entire genomes, it becomes necessary to use similarity sequence methods. A large set of sequences can be simultaneously compared using Multiple Sequence Alignment which is known to be NP-complete. To make this type of analysis feasible, heuristics, like progressive alignment, have been developed. Another tool for similarity search against a database of sequences is BLAST, which outputs shorter regions of high similarity between a query sequence and matched sequences in the database. However, all these methods are still computationally very expensive and require significant computational infrastructure. Our goal is to build predictive models that are highly accurate and interpretable. This method permits to avoid the complex problem of form and structure in different classes of organisms. On empirical data and their classification performances are compared with other methods. Our system consists of three phases. The first is called transformation, which is composed of three steps; Electron-Ion Interaction Pseudopotential (EIIP) for the codification of DNA Barcodes, Fourier Transform and Power Spectrum Signal Processing. The second is called approximation, which is empowered by the use of Multi Llibrary Wavelet Neural Networks (MLWNN).The third is called the classification of DNA Barcodes, which is realized by applying the algorithm of hierarchical classification.

Keywords: DNA barcode, electron-ion interaction pseudopotential, Multi Library Wavelet Neural Networks (MLWNN)

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Authors: Gaurav Kumar Sinha

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In an era marked by increasing concerns about energy sustainability, this research endeavors to address the pressing challenge of energy consumption in buildings and industries. This study delves into the transformative potential of AWS services in optimizing energy efficiency. The research is founded on the recognition that effective management of energy consumption is imperative for both environmental conservation and economic viability. Buildings and industries account for a substantial portion of global energy use, making it crucial to develop advanced techniques for analysis and reduction. This study sets out to explore the integration of AWS services with big data analytics to provide innovative solutions for energy consumption analysis. Leveraging AWS's cloud computing capabilities, scalable infrastructure, and data analytics tools, the research aims to develop efficient methods for collecting, processing, and analyzing energy data from diverse sources. The core focus is on creating predictive models and real-time monitoring systems that enable proactive energy management. By harnessing AWS's machine learning and data analytics capabilities, the research seeks to identify patterns, anomalies, and optimization opportunities within energy consumption data. Furthermore, this study aims to propose actionable recommendations for reducing energy consumption in buildings and industries. By combining AWS services with metrics-driven insights, the research strives to facilitate the implementation of energy-efficient practices, ultimately leading to reduced carbon emissions and cost savings. The integration of AWS services not only enhances the analytical capabilities but also offers scalable solutions that can be customized for different building and industrial contexts. The research also recognizes the potential for AWS-powered solutions to promote sustainable practices and support environmental stewardship.

Keywords: energy consumption analysis, big data analytics, AWS services, energy efficiency

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Authors: A. Pietro Rimoldi, B. Anilkumar Gopinath, C. Minimol Korulla

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Coastal engineering structure is conventionally designed for a shorter planning horizon usually 20 years. These structures are subjected to different offshore climatic externalities like waves, tides, tsunamis etc. during the design life period. The probability of occurrence of these different offshore climatic externalities varies. The impact frequently caused by these externalities on the structures is of concern because it has a significant bearing on the capital /operating cost of the project. There can also be repeated short time occurrence of these externalities in the assumed planning horizon which can cause heavy damage to the conventional coastal structure which are mainly made of rock. A replacement of the damaged portion to prevent complete collapse is time consuming and expensive when dealing with hard rock structures. But if coastal structures are made of Geo-synthetic containment systems such replacement is quickly possible in the time period between two successive occurrences. In order to have a better knowledge and to enhance the predictive capacity of these occurrences, this study estimates risk of encounter within the design life period of various externalities based on the concept of exponential distribution. This gives an idea of the frequency of occurrences which in turn gives an indication of whether replacement is necessary and if so at what time interval such replacements have to be effected. To validate this theoretical finding, a pilot project has been taken up in the field so that the impact of the externalities can be studied both for a hard rock and a Geosynthetic tube structure. The paper brings out the salient feature of a case study which pertains to a project in which Geosynthetic tubes have been used for reformation of a seawall adjacent to a conventional rock structure in Alappuzha coast, Kerala, India. The effectiveness of the Geosystem in combatting the impact of the short-term externalities has been brought out.

Keywords: climatic externalities, exponential distribution, geosystems, planning horizon

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Authors: Klary Geisler, Dalit Lev-Arey, Yael Hacohen

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It is a well-known fact that exercise has favorable effects on people's physical health, as well as mental well-being. However, as for as excessive exercise, it may likely elevate negative consequences (e.g., physical injuries, negligence of everyday responsibilities such as work, family life). Lately, there is a growing interest in exercise addiction, sometimes referred to as exercise dependence, which is defined as a craving for physical activity that results in extreme work-out sessions and generates negative physiological and psychological symptoms (e.g., withdrawal symptoms, tolerance, social conflict). Exercise addiction is considered a behavioral addiction, yet it was not included in the latest editions of the diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders (DSM-IV), due to lack of significant research. Specifically, there is scarce research on the relationship between exercise addiction and personality dimensions. The purpose of the current research was to examine the relationship between primary exercise addiction symptoms and the big five dimensions, perfectionism (high performance expectations and self-critical performance evaluations) and subjective affect. participants were 152 trainees on a variety of aerobic sports activities (running, cycling, swimming) that were recruited through sports groups and trainers. 88% of participants trained for at least 5 hours per week, 24% of the participants trained above 10 hours per week. To test the predictive ability of the IVs a hierarchical linear regression with forced block entry was performed. It was found that Neuroticism significantly predicted exercise addiction symptoms (20% of the variance, p<0.001), while consciousness was negatively correlated with exercise addiction symptoms (14% of variance p<0.05); both had a unique contribution. Other dimensions of the big five (agreeableness, openness and extraversion) did not have any contribution to the dependent. Moreover, maladaptive perfectionism (self-critical performance evaluations) significantly predicted exercise addiction symptoms as well (10% of the variance P < 0.05). The overall regression model explained 54% of variance.

Keywords: big five, consciousness, excessive exercise, exercise addiction, neuroticism, perfectionism, personality

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Authors: Mateus Silva Mendonça, Wender Pereira de Oliveira, Gabriel Heleno de Paula Araújo, Hiago Tenório Teixeira Santana Rocha, Augusto César Teixeira Malaquias, José Guilherme Coelho Baeta

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The stricter legislation and the greater demand of the population regard to gas emissions and their effects on the environment as well as on human health make the automotive industry reinforce research focused on reducing levels of contamination. This reduction can be achieved through the implementation of improvements in internal combustion engines in such a way that they promote the reduction of both specific fuel consumption and air pollutant emissions. These improvements can be obtained through numerical simulation, which is a technique that works together with experimental tests. The aim of this paper is to build, with support of the GT-Suite software, a one-dimensional model of a single-cylinder research engine to analyze the impact of the variation of swirl and tumble coefficients on the performance and on the air pollutant emissions of an engine. Initially, the discharge coefficient is calculated through the software Converge CFD 3D, given that it is an input parameter in GT-Power. Mesh sensitivity tests are made in 3D geometry built for this purpose, using the mass flow rate in the valve as a reference. In the one-dimensional simulation is adopted the non-predictive combustion model called Three Pressure Analysis (TPA) is, and then data such as mass trapped in cylinder, heat release rate, and accumulated released energy are calculated, aiming that the validation can be performed by comparing these data with those obtained experimentally. Finally, the swirl and tumble coefficients are introduced in their corresponding objects so that their influences can be observed when compared to the results obtained previously.

Keywords: 1D simulation, single-cylinder research engine, swirl coefficient, three pressure analysis, tumble coefficient

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Authors: Michael Luc Andre, Célia Maintenant

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Theory of mind is a milestone in child development which allows children to understand that others could have different mental states than theirs. Understanding the developmental stages of theory of mind in children leaded researchers on two Connected research problems. In one hand, the link between executive function and theory of mind, and on the other hand, the relationship of theory of mind and syntax processing. These two lines of research involved a great literature, full of important results, despite certain level of disagreement between researchers. For a long time, these two research perspectives continue to grow up separately despite research conclusion suggesting that the three variables should implicate same developmental period. Indeed, our goal was to study the relation between theory of mind, executive function, and language via a unique research question. It supposed that between executive function and language, one of the two variables could play a critical role in the relationship between theory of mind and the other variable. Thus, 112 children aged between three and six years old were recruited for completing a receptive and an expressive vocabulary task, a syntax understanding task, a theory of mind task, and three executive function tasks (inhibition, cognitive flexibility and working memory). The results showed significant correlations between performance on theory of mind task and performance on executive function domain tasks, except for cognitive flexibility task. We also found significant correlations between success on theory of mind task and performance in all language tasks. Multiple regression analysis justified only syntax and general abilities of language as possible predictors of theory of mind performance in our preschool age children sample. The results were discussed in the perspective of a great role of language abilities in theory of mind development. We also discussed possible reasons that could explain the non-significance of executive domains in predicting theory of mind performance, and the meaning of our results for the literature.

Keywords: child development, executive function, general language, syntax, theory of mind

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Authors: Kamil Jonski

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Last year vividly demonstrated, that populism and political instability can endanger democratic institutions in countries regarded as democratic transition champions (Poland) or cornerstones of liberal order (UK, US). So called ‘illiberal democracy’ is winning hearts and minds of voters, keen to believe that rule of strongman is a viable alternative to perceived decay of western values and institutions. These developments pose a serious threat to the democratic institutions (including rule of law), proven critical for both personal freedom and economic development. Although scholars proposed some structural explanations of the illiberal wave (notably focusing on inequality, stagnant incomes and drawbacks of globalization), they seem to have little predictive value. Indeed, events like Trump’s victory, Brexit or Polish shift towards populist nationalism always came as a surprise. Intriguingly, in the case of US election, simple rules like ‘Bread and Peace model’ gauged prospects of Trump’s victory better than pundits and pollsters. This paper attempts to compile set of indicators, in order to gauge various democracies’ vulnerability to populism, instability and pursuance of ‘illiberal’ projects. Among them, it identifies the gap between consensus assessment of institutional performance (as measured by WGI indicators) and citizens’ subjective assessment (survey based confidence in institutions). Plotting these variables against each other, reveals three clusters of countries – ‘predictable’ (good institutions and high confidence, poor institutions and low confidence), ‘blind’ (poor institutions, high confidence e.g. Uzbekistan or Azerbaijan) and ‘disillusioned’ (good institutions, low confidence e.g. Spain, Chile, Poland and US). It seems that this clustering – carried out separately for various institutions (like legislature, executive and courts) and blended with economic indicators like inequality and living standards (using PCA) – offers reasonably good watchlist of countries, that should ‘expect the unexpected’.

Keywords: illiberal democracy, populism, political instability, political risk measurement

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Authors: Mukisa Simon Peter Turker, Etomaru Irene

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This study examined factors determining the success of University-Industry Collaboration (UIC) in the science academic units (SAUs) at Makerere University. This was prompted by concerns about weak linkages between industry and the academic units at Makerere University. The study examined institutional, relational, output, and framework factors determining the success of UIC in the science academic units at Makerere University. The study adopted a predictive cross-sectional survey design. Data was collected using a questionnaire survey from 172 academic staff from the six SAUs at Makerere University. Stratified, proportionate, and simple random sampling techniques were used to select the samples. The study used descriptive statistics and linear multiple regression analysis to analyze data. The study findings reveal a coefficient of determination (R-square) of 0.403 at a significance level of 0.000, suggesting that UIC success was 40.3% at a standardized error of estimate of 0.60188. The strength of association between Institutional factors, Relational factors, Output factors, and Framework factors, taking into consideration all interactions among the study variables, was at 64% (R= 0.635). Institutional, Relational, Output and Framework factors accounted for 34% of the variance in the level of UIC success (adjusted R2 = 0.338). The remaining variance of 66% is explained by factors other than Institutional, Relational, Output, and Framework factors. The standardized coefficient statistics revealed that Relational factors (β = 0.454, t = 5.247, p = 0.000) and Framework factors (β = 0.311, t = 3.770, p = 0.000) are the only statistically significant determinants of the success of UIC in the SAU in Makerere University. Output factors (β = 0.082, t =1.096, p = 0.275) and Institutional factors β = 0.023, t = 0.292, p = 0.771) turned out to be statistically insignificant determinants of the success of UIC in the science academic units at Makerere University. The study concludes that Relational Factors and Framework Factors positively and significantly determine the success of UIC, but output factors and institutional factors are not statistically significant determinants of UIC in the SAUs at Makerere University. The study recommends strategies to consolidate Relational and Framework Factors to enhance UIC at Makerere University and further research on the effects of Institutional and Output factors on the success of UIC in universities.

Keywords: university-industry collaboration, output factors, relational factors, framework factors, institutional factors

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Authors: Ashwin Belle, Bryce Benson, Mark Salamango, Fadi Islim, Rodney Daniels, Kevin Ward

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A reliable, real-time, and non-invasive system that can identify patients at risk for hemodynamic instability is needed to aid clinicians in their efforts to anticipate patient deterioration and initiate early interventions. The purpose of this pilot study was to explore the clinical capabilities of a real-time analytic from a single lead of an electrocardiograph to correctly distinguish between rapid response team (RRT) activations due to hemodynamic (H-RRT) and non-hemodynamic (NH-RRT) causes, as well as predict H-RRT cases with actionable lead times. The study consisted of a single center, retrospective cohort of 21 patients with RRT activations from step-down and telemetry units. Through electronic health record review and blinded to the analytic’s output, each patient was categorized by clinicians into H-RRT and NH-RRT cases. The analytic output and the categorization were compared. The prediction lead time prior to the RRT call was calculated. The analytic correctly distinguished between H-RRT and NH-RRT cases with 100% accuracy, demonstrating 100% positive and negative predictive values, and 100% sensitivity and specificity. In H-RRT cases, the analytic detected hemodynamic deterioration with a median lead time of 9.5 hours prior to the RRT call (range 14 minutes to 52 hours). The study demonstrates that an electrocardiogram (ECG) based analytic has the potential for providing clinical decision and monitoring support for caregivers to identify at risk patients within a clinically relevant timeframe allowing for increased vigilance and early interventional support to reduce the chances of continued patient deterioration.

Keywords: critical care, early warning systems, emergency medicine, heart rate variability, hemodynamic instability, rapid response team

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Authors: Aminu Abdullahi Isyaku

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Semi-arid Bornu basin in northeast Nigeria is characterised with flat topography, thick cover sediments and lack of continuous bedrock outcrops discernible for field geology. This paper presents the methodology for the characterisation of neotectonic surface structures and surface lithology in the north-eastern Bornu basin in northeast Nigeria as an alternative approach to field geological mapping using free multispectral Landsat 7 ETM+, SRTM DEM and ASAR Earth Observation datasets. Spectral lithological mapping herein developed utilised spectral discrimination of the surface features identified on Landsat 7 ETM+ images to infer on the lithology using four steps including; computations of band combination images; band ratio images; supervised image classification and inferences of the lithological compositions. Two complementary approaches to lineament mapping are carried out in this study involving manual digitization and automatic lineament extraction to validate the structural lineaments extracted from the Landsat 7 ETM+ image mosaic covering the study. A comparison between the mapped surface lineaments and lineament zones show good geospatial correlation and identified the predominant NE-SW and NW-SE structural trends in the basin. Topographic profiles across different parts of the Bama Beach Ridge palaeoshorelines in the basin appear to show different elevations across the feature. It is determined that most of the drainage systems in the northeastern Bornu basin are structurally controlled with drainage lines terminating against the paleo-lake border and emptying into the Lake Chad mainly arising from the extensive topographic high-stand Bama Beach Ridge palaeoshoreline.

Keywords: Bornu Basin, lineaments, spectral lithology, tectonics

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Authors: Anastasia Papachristou, Anastasia Ntikoudi, Vasileios Saridakis

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The safety and health care needs of refugees have become an increasingly important issue all over the world especially during last few decades. Wars are the primary reason for refugees to leave their countries. Moreover, refugees are frequently exposed to a variety of stressors such as socioeconomic disadvantages, poverty, changes in family structure and functioning, losing social support, difficulty to access education, living in very crowded places, experiencing racism and isolation. This systematic review included research studies published between 2007-2017 from the search databases Medline, Scopus, Cinahl and PubMed, with keywords 'war survivors', 'war trauma', 'psychiatric disorders', 'refugees'. In order to meet the purpose of the systematic review, further research for complementary studies was conducted into the literature references of the research articles included in this study that would meet the criteria. Overall, 14 studies were reviewed and evaluated. The majority of them demonstrated that the most common psychiatric disorders observed among war refugees are post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, anxiety and multiple somatic complaints. Moreover, significant relationship was shown between the number of traumatic events experienced by the refugees and sociodemographic features such as gender, age and previous family history of any psychological disorder. War violence is highly traumatic, causing multiple, long-term negative outcomes such as the aforementioned psychiatric disorders. The number of the studies reviewed in this systematic review is not representative of the problem and its significance. The need for care of the survivors and their families is vital. Further research is necessary in order to clarify the role of predictive factors in the development and maintenance of post-traumatic stress and the rest psychiatric disorders following war trauma. In conclusion, it is necessary to have large multicenter studies in the future in order to be able to draw reliable conclusions about the effects of war.

Keywords: psychiatric disorders, refugees, war survivors, war trauma

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Authors: Ayobami Solomon Popoola

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Yam is majorly a carbohydrate food grown in most parts of the world. It could be boiled, fried or roasted for consumption in a variety of ways. Blanching is an established heat pre-treatment given to fruits and vegetables prior to further processing such as dehydration, canning, freezing etc. Losses of soluble solids during blanching has been a great problem because a reasonable quantity of the water-soluble nutrients are inevitably leached into the blanching water. Without blanching, the high residual levels of reducing sugars after extended storage produce a dark, bitter-tasting product because of the Maillard reactions of reducing sugars at frying temperature. Measurement and prediction of such losses are necessary for economic efficiency in production and to establish the level of effluent treatment of the blanching water. This paper aims at resolving this problem by investigating the effects of cube size and temperature on the rate of diffusional losses of reducing sugars and total sugars during hot water blanching of water-yam. The study was carried out using four temperature levels (65, 70, 80 and 90 °C) and two cubes sizes (0.02 m³ and 0.03 m³) at 4 times intervals (5, 10, 15 and 20 mins) respectively. Obtained data were fitted into Fick’s non-steady equation from which diffusion coefficients (Da) were obtained. The Da values were subsequently fitted into Arrhenius plot to obtain activation energies (Ea-values) for diffusional losses. The diffusion co-efficient were independent of cube size and time but highly temperature dependent. The diffusion coefficients were ≥ 1.0 ×10⁻⁹ m²s⁻¹ for reducing sugars and ≥ 5.0 × 10⁻⁹ m²s⁻¹ for total sugars. The Ea values ranged between 68.2 to 73.9 KJmol⁻¹ and 7.2 to 14.30 KJmol⁻¹ for reducing sugars and total sugars losses respectively. Predictive equations for estimating amount of reducing sugars and total sugars with blanching time of water-yam at various temperatures were also presented. The equation could be valuable in process design and optimization. However, amount of other soluble solids that might have leached into the water along with reducing and total sugars during blanching was not investigated in the study.

Keywords: blanching, kinetics, sugar losses, water yam

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Authors: Eric Fang, Robert Chen, Ghim Song Chia, Bien Soo Tan

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Objective and Rationale: Training of radiology residents hinges on practical, on-the-job training in all facets and modalities of diagnostic radiology. Although residency is structured to be comprehensive, clinical exposure depends on the case mix available locally and during the posting period. To supplement clinical training, there are several e-learning resources available to allow for greater exposure to radiological cases. The objective of this study was to survey residents and faculty on the usefulness of these e-learning resources. Methods: E-learning resources were shortlisted with input from radiology residents, Google search and online discussion groups, and screened by their purported focus. Twelve e-learning resources were found to meet the criteria. Both radiology residents and experienced radiology faculty were then surveyed electronically. The e-survey asked for ratings on breadth, depth, testing capability and user-friendliness for each resource, as well as for rankings for the top 3 resources. Statistical analysis was performed using SAS 9.4. Results: Seventeen residents and fifteen faculties completed an e-survey. Mean response rate was 54% ± 8% (Range: 14- 96%). Ratings and rankings were statistically identical between residents and faculty. On a 5-point rating scale, breadth was 3.68 ± 0.18, depth was 3.95 ± 0.14, testing capability was 2.64 ± 0.16 and user-friendliness was 3.39 ± 0.13. Top-ranked resources were STATdx (first), Radiopaedia (second) and Radiology Assistant (third). 9% of responders singled out R-ITI as potentially good but ‘prohibitively costly’. Statistically significant predictive factors for higher rankings are familiarity with the resource (p = 0.001) and user-friendliness (p = 0.006). Conclusion: A good e-learning system will complement on-the-job training with a broad case base, deep discussion and quality trainee evaluation. Based on our study on twelve e-learning resources, no single program fulfilled all requirements. The perception and use of radiology e-learning resources depended more on familiarity and user-friendliness than on content differences and testing capability.

Keywords: e-learning, medicine, radiology, survey

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Authors: Sonda Jallouli, Sameh Ghroubi, Salma Sakka, Abdelmoneem Yahia, Mohamed Habib Elleuch, Imen Ben Dhia, Chokri Mhiri, Omar Hammouda

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The pathophysiology, prevalence, and progression of MS are gender dependent. Indeed, the inflammation is more pronounced in women, but the neurodegeneration is more important in men. In addition, women have more sleep disorders while men suffer more from cognitive decline. These non-physical disorders can negatively affect postural balance and fall risk. However, no study has examined the difference between men and women in those physical parameters in MS. Our objective was to determine the effect gender difference on postural balance and fall risk in MS persons. Methods: Eight men and twelve women with relapsing remitting-MS participated in this study. The assessment includes a posturographic examination to assess static (with eyes opened (EO) and eyes closed (EC)) and dynamic (with EO) postural balance. Unipedal balance and fall risk were assessed by a clinical unipedal balance test and the Four Square Step Test, respectively. Sleep quality was assessed using Spiegel's questionnaire, and cognitive assessment was performed using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) and the Simple Reaction Time Test. Results: Compared to men, women showed an increase in CdPVm in static bipedal condition with EC (p=0.037; d=0.71) and a decrease in MoCA scores (p=0.028; d=1.06). No gender differences were found in the other tests. Discussion: Static postural balance was more impaired in women compared to men. This result could be explained by the more pronounced cognitive decline observed in women compared to men. Indeed, cognitive disorders have been shown to be predictive factors of postural balance impairment. Conclusion: women were less stable than men in the static condition, possibly due to their lower cognitive performance. This gender difference could be taken into account by therapists in training programs.

Keywords: multiple sclerosis, bipedal postural balance, fall risk, sleep disturbance, cognitive deficiency

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Authors: Shazia Anwer Bukhari, Madiha Javeed Ghani, Muhammad Ibrahim Rajoka

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Objective: Biochemical, environmental, physical and genetic factors have a strong effect on the development of coronary disease (CAD). Plasma homocysteine (Hcy) level and DNA damage play a pivotal role in its development and progression. The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive strength of an oxidative stress, clinical biomarkers and total antioxidant status (TAS) in CAD patients to find the correlation of homocysteine, TOS and oxidative DNA damage with other clinical parameters. Methods: Sixty confirmed patients with CAD and 60 healthy individuals as control were included in this study. Different clinical and laboratory parameters were studied in blood samples obtained from patients and control subjects using commercially available biochemical kits and statistical software Results: As compared to healthy individuals, CAD patients had significantly higher concentrations of indices of oxidative stress: homocysteine (P=0.0001), total oxidative stress (TOS) (P=0.0001), serum cholesterol (P=0.04), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL) (P=0.01), high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL) (P=0.0001), and malondialdehyde (MDA) (P=0.001) than those of healthy individuals. Plasma homocysteine level and oxidative DNA damage were positively correlated with cholesterol, triglycerides, systolic blood pressure, urea, total protein and albumin (P values= 0.05). Both Hcy and oxidative DNA damage were negatively correlated with TAS and proteins. Conclusion: Coronary artery disease patients had a significant increase in homocysteine level and DNA damage due to increased oxidative stress. In conclusion, our study shows a significantly increase in lipid peroxidation, TOS, homocysteine and DNA damage in the erythrocytes of patients with CAD. A significant decrease level of HDL-C and TAS was observed only in CAD patients. Therefore these biomarkers may be useful diagnosis of patients with CAD and play an important role in the pathogenesis of CAD.

Keywords: antioxidants, coronary artery disease, DNA damage, homocysteine, oxidative stress, malondialdehyde, 8-Hydroxy-2’deoxyguanosine

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Authors: Mikiyas Adugna

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Effort estimation is among the activities carried out in software development processes. An accurate model of estimation leads to project success. The method of agile effort estimation is a complex task because of the dynamic nature of software development. Researchers are still conducting studies on agile effort estimation to enhance prediction accuracy. Due to these reasons, we investigated and proposed a model on LASSO and Elastic Net regression to enhance estimation accuracy. The proposed model has major components: preprocessing, train-test split, training with default parameters, and cross-validation. During the preprocessing phase, the entire dataset is normalized. After normalization, a train-test split is performed on the dataset, setting training at 80% and testing set to 20%. We chose two different phases for training the two algorithms (Elastic Net and LASSO) regression following the train-test-split. In the first phase, the two algorithms are trained using their default parameters and evaluated on the testing data. In the second phase, the grid search technique (the grid is used to search for tuning and select optimum parameters) and 5-fold cross-validation to get the final trained model. Finally, the final trained model is evaluated using the testing set. The experimental work is applied to the agile story point dataset of 21 software projects collected from six firms. The results show that both Elastic Net and LASSO regression outperformed the compared ones. Compared to the proposed algorithms, LASSO regression achieved better predictive performance and has acquired PRED (8%) and PRED (25%) results of 100.0, MMRE of 0.0491, MMER of 0.0551, MdMRE of 0.0593, MdMER of 0.063, and MSE of 0.0007. The result implies LASSO regression algorithm trained model is the most acceptable, and higher estimation performance exists in the literature.

Keywords: agile software development, effort estimation, elastic net regression, LASSO

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Authors: Ryo Shikimoto, Hidehito Niimura, Hisashi Kida, Kota Suzuki, Yukiko Miyasaka, Masaru Mimura

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Introduction: In Japan, the most aged country in the world, it is important to explore predictive factors of cognitive function among the elderly. Coping behavior relieves chronic stress and improves lifestyle, and consequently may reduce the risk of cognitive impairment. One of the most widely investigated frameworks evaluated in previous studies is approach-oriented and avoidance-oriented coping strategies. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between cognitive function and coping strategies among elderly residents in urban areas of Japan. Method: This is a part of the cross-sectional Arakawa geriatric cohort study for 1,099 residents (aged 65 to 86 years; mean [SD] = 72.9 [5.2]). Participants were assessed for cognitive function using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and diagnosed by psychiatrists in face-to-face interviews. They were then investigated for their each coping behaviors and coping strategies (approach- and avoidance-oriented coping) using stress and coping inventory. A multiple regression analysis was used to investigate the relationship between MMSE score and each coping strategy. Results: Of the 1,099 patients, the mean MMSE score of the study participants was 27.2 (SD = 2.7), and the numbers of the diagnosis of normal, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and dementia were 815 (74.2%), 248 (22.6%), and 14 (1.3%), respectively. Approach-oriented coping score was significantly associated with MMSE score (B [partial regression coefficient] = 0.12, 95% confidence interval = 0.05 to 0.19) after adjusting for confounding factors including age, sex, and education. Avoidance-oriented coping did not show a significant association with MMSE score (B [partial regression coefficient] = -0.02, 95% confidence interval = -0.09 to 0.06). Conclusion: Approach-oriented coping was clearly associated with neurocognitive function in the Japanese population. A future longitudinal trial is warranted to investigate the protective effects of coping behavior on cognitive function.

Keywords: approach-oriented coping, cognitive impairment, coping behavior, dementia

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Authors: L. Atif, C. Rosenthal-Sabroux, M. Grundstein

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The requirements engineering process is a crucial phase in the design of complex systems. The purpose of our research is to present a collaborative problem-driven requirements engineering approach that aims at improving the design of a Decision Support System as an Analytics application. This approach has been adopted to design a Human Resource management DSS. The Requirements Engineering process is presented as a series of guidelines for activities that must be implemented to assure that the final product satisfies end-users requirements and takes into account the limitations identified. For this, we know that a well-posed statement of the problem is “a problem whose crucial character arises from collectively produced estimation and a formulation found to be acceptable by all the parties”. Moreover, we know that DSSs were developed to help decision-makers solve their unstructured problems. So, we thus base our research off of the assumption that developing DSS, particularly for helping poorly structured or unstructured decisions, cannot be done without considering end-user decision problems, how to represent them collectively, decisions content, their meaning, and the decision-making process; thus, arise the field issues in a multidisciplinary perspective. Our approach addresses a problem-driven and collaborative approach to designing DSS technologies: It will reflect common end-user problems in the upstream design phase and in the downstream phase these problems will determine the design choices and potential technical solution. We will thus rely on a categorization of HR’s problems for a development mirroring the Analytics solution. This brings out a new data-driven DSS typology: Descriptive Analytics, Explicative or Diagnostic Analytics, Predictive Analytics, Prescriptive Analytics. In our research, identifying the problem takes place with design of the solution, so, we would have to resort a significant transformations of representations associated with the HR Analytics application to build an increasingly detailed representation of the goal to be achieved. Here, the collective cognition is reflected in the establishment of transfer functions of representations during the whole of the design process.

Keywords: DSS, collaborative design, problem-driven requirements, analytics application, HR decision making

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Authors: Akaash Tawade, Manan Khattar, Lucas Spangher, Costas J. Spanos

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Many grids are increasing the share of renewable energy in their generation mix, which is causing the energy generation to become less controllable. Buildings, which consume nearly 33% of all energy, are a key target for demand response: i.e., mechanisms for demand to meet supply. Understanding the behavior of office workers is a start towards developing demand response for one sector of building technology. The literature notes that dynamic computational modeling can be predictive of individual action, especially given that occupant behavior is traditionally abstracted from demand forecasting. Recent work founded on Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) has provided a promising conceptual basis for modeling behavior, personal states, and environment using control theoretic principles. Here, an adapted linear dynamical system of latent states and exogenous inputs is proposed to simulate energy demand amongst office workers engaged in a social energy shifting game. The energy shifting competition is implemented in an office in Singapore that is connected to a minigrid of buildings with a consistent 'price signal.' This signal is translated into a 'points signal' by a reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm to influence participant energy use. The dynamic model functions at the intersection of the points signals, baseline energy consumption trends, and SCT behavioral inputs to simulate future outcomes. This study endeavors to analyze how the dynamic model trains an RL agent and, subsequently, the degree of accuracy to which load deferability can be simulated. The results offer a generalizable behavioral model for energy competitions that provides the framework for further research on transfer learning for RL, and more broadly— transactive control.

Keywords: energy demand forecasting, social cognitive behavioral modeling, social game, transfer learning

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Authors: Stephen Acheampong Amoafoh

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In today's dynamic economic landscape, businesses face multifaceted challenges that demand strategic foresight and informed decision-making. This abstract explores the pivotal role of financial analytics in driving business performance amidst evolving market conditions. By integrating accounting principles with economic insights, organizations can harness the power of data-driven strategies to optimize resource allocation, mitigate risks, and capitalize on emerging opportunities. This presentation will delve into the practical applications of financial analytics across various sectors, highlighting case studies and empirical evidence to underscore its efficacy in enhancing operational efficiency and fostering sustainable growth. From predictive modeling to performance benchmarking, attendees will gain invaluable insights into leveraging advanced analytics tools to drive profitability, streamline processes, and adapt to changing market dynamics. Moreover, this abstract will address the ethical considerations inherent in financial analytics, emphasizing the importance of transparency, integrity, and accountability in data-driven decision-making. By fostering a culture of ethical conduct and responsible stewardship, organizations can build trust with stakeholders and safeguard their long-term viability in an increasingly interconnected global economy. Ultimately, this abstract aims to stimulate dialogue and collaboration among scholars, practitioners, and policymakers, fostering knowledge exchange and innovation in the realms of accounting, business, and economics. Through interdisciplinary insights and actionable recommendations, participants will be equipped to navigate the complexities of today's business environment and seize opportunities for sustainable success.

Keywords: financial analytics, business performance, data-driven strategies, sustainable growth

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Authors: Jeffrey A. Lavarias, Jessie C. Elauria, Arnold R. Elepano, Engelbert K. Peralta, Delfin C. Suministrado

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Shelling process is one of the primary processes and critical steps in the processing of chocolate or any product that is derived from cocoa beans. It affects the quality of the cocoa nibs in terms of flavor and purity. In the Philippines, small-scale food processor cannot really compete with large scale confectionery manufacturers because of lack of available postharvest facilities that are appropriate to their level of operation. The impact of this study is to provide the needed intervention that will pave the way for cacao farmers of engaging on the advantage of value-adding as way to maximize the economic potential of cacao. Thus, provision and availability of needed postharvest machines like mechanical cacao sheller will revolutionize the current state of cacao industry in the Philippines. A mechanical cacao sheller was developed, fabricated, and evaluated to establish optimum shelling conditions such as moisture content of cocoa beans, clearance where of cocoa beans passes through the breaker section and speed of the breaking mechanism on shelling recovery, shelling efficiency, shelling rate, energy utilization and large nib recovery; To establish the optimum level of shelling parameters of the mechanical sheller. These factors were statistically analyzed using design of experiment by Box and Behnken and Response Surface Methodology (RSM). By maximizing shelling recovery, shelling efficiency, shelling rate, large nib recovery and minimizing energy utilization, the optimum shelling conditions were established at moisture content, clearance and breaker speed of 6.5%, 3 millimeters and 1300 rpm, respectively. The optimum values for shelling recovery, shelling efficiency, shelling rate, large nib recovery and minimizing energy utilization were recorded at 86.51%, 99.19%, 21.85kg/hr, 89.75%, and 542.84W, respectively. Experimental values obtained using the optimum conditions were compared with predicted values using predictive models and were found in good agreement.

Keywords: cocoa beans, optimization, RSM, shelling parameters

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Authors: Ermias A. Tegegn, Million Meshesha

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Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is a major cause of death for most African countries. Ethiopia is one of the seriously affected countries in sub Saharan Africa. Previously in Ethiopia, having HIV/AIDS was almost equivalent to a death sentence. With the introduction of Antiretroviral Therapy (ART), HIV/AIDS has become chronic, but manageable disease. The study focused on a data mining technique to predict future living status of HIV/AIDS patients at the time of drug regimen change when the patients become toxic to the currently taking ART drug combination. The data is taken from University of Gondar Hospital ART program database. Hybrid methodology is followed to explore the application of data mining on ART program dataset. Data cleaning, handling missing values and data transformation were used for preprocessing the data. WEKA 3.7.9 data mining tools, classification algorithms, and expertise are utilized as means to address the research problem. By using four different classification algorithms, (i.e., J48 Classifier, PART rule induction, Naïve Bayes and Neural network) and by adjusting their parameters thirty-two models were built on the pre-processed University of Gondar ART program dataset. The performances of the models were evaluated using the standard metrics of accuracy, precision, recall, and F-measure. The most effective model to predict the status of HIV patients with drug regimen substitution is pruned J48 decision tree with a classification accuracy of 98.01%. This study extracts interesting attributes such as Ever taking Cotrim, Ever taking TbRx, CD4 count, Age, Weight, and Gender so as to predict the status of drug regimen substitution. The outcome of this study can be used as an assistant tool for the clinician to help them make more appropriate drug regimen substitution. Future research directions are forwarded to come up with an applicable system in the area of the study.

Keywords: HIV drug regimen, data mining, hybrid methodology, predictive model

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Authors: Shoumodip Roy, Ankit Singhania, K. R. K. Rao, Ravi Shankar, M. K. Agarwal, R. V. Ramna, Uttam Singh

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The productivity of a blast furnace and the quality of the hot metal produced are significantly dependent on the smoothness and stability of furnace operation. The permeability of the furnace bed, as well as the gas flow pattern, influences the steady control of process parameters. The softening – melting zone that is formed inside the furnace contributes largely in distribution of the gas flow and the bed permeability. A better shape of softening-melting zone enhances the performance of blast furnace, thereby reducing the fuel rates and improving furnace life. Therefore, predictive model of the softening- melting zone profile can be utilized to control and improve the furnace operation. The shape of softening-melting zone depends upon the physical and chemical properties of the agglomerates and iron ore charged in the furnace. The variations in the agglomerate proportion in the burden at G Blast furnace disturbed the furnace stability. During such circumstances, it was analyzed that a w-shape softening-melting zone profile was formed inside the furnace. The formation of w-shape zone resulted in poor bed permeability and non-uniform gas flow. There was a significant increase in the heat loss at the lower zone of the furnace. The fuel demand increased, and the huge production loss was incurred. Therefore, visibility of softening-melting zone profile was necessary in order to pro-actively optimize the process parameters and thereby to operate the furnace smoothly. Using stave temperatures, a model was developed that predicted the shape of the softening-melting zone inside the furnace. It was observed that furnace operated smoothly during inverse V-shape of the zone and vice-versa during w-shape. This model helped to control the heat loss, optimize the burden distribution and lower the fuel rate at G Blast Furnace, TSL Jamshedpur. As a result of furnace stabilization productivity increased by 10% and fuel rate reduced by 80 kg/thm. Details of the process have been discussed in this paper.

Keywords: agglomerate, blast furnace, permeability, softening-melting

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Authors: Pei-Chen Wu

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Both preexisting cross-sectional and longitudinal studies of personality-depression relationship have suffered from one main limitation: they ignored the stability of the construct of interest (e.g., personality and depression) can be expected to influence the estimate of the association between personality and depression. To address this limitation, the Trait-State-Occasion (TSO) modeling was adopted to analyze the sources of variance of the focused constructs. A TSO modeling was operated by partitioning a state variance into time-invariant (trait) and time-variant (occasion) components. Within a TSO framework, it is possible to predict change on the part of construct that really changes (i.e., time-variant variance), when controlling the trait variances. 750 high school students were followed for 4 waves over six-month intervals. The baseline data (T1) were collected from the senior high schools (aged 14 to 15 years). Participants were given Beck Depression Inventory and Big Five Inventory at each assessment. TSO modeling revealed that 70~78% of the variance in personality (five constructs) was stable over follow-up period; however, 57~61% of the variance in depression was stable. For personality construct, there were 7.6% to 8.4% of the total variance from the autoregressive occasion factors; for depression construct there were 15.2% to 18.1% of the total variance from the autoregressive occasion factors. Additionally, results showed that when controlling initial symptom severity, the time-invariant components of all five dimensions of personality were predictive of change in depression (Extraversion: B= .32, Openness: B = -.21, Agreeableness: B = -.27, Conscientious: B = -.36, Neuroticism: B = .39). Because five dimensions of personality shared some variance, the models in which all five dimensions of personality were simultaneous to predict change in depression were investigated. The time-invariant components of five dimensions were still significant predictors for change in depression (Extraversion: B = .30, Openness: B = -.24, Agreeableness: B = -.28, Conscientious: B = -.35, Neuroticism: B = .42). In sum, the majority of the variability of personality was stable over 2 years. Individuals with the greater tendency of Extraversion and Neuroticism have higher degrees of depression; individuals with the greater tendency of Openness, Agreeableness and Conscientious have lower degrees of depression.

Keywords: assessment, depression, personality, trait-state-occasion model

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Authors: Joseph Lillington, Tom Gout, Mike Harrison, Ian Farnan

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The vitrification of high-level nuclear waste within borosilicate glass and its incorporation within a multi-barrier repository deep underground is widely accepted as the preferred disposal method. However, for this to happen, any safety case will require validation that the initially localized radionuclides will not be considerably released into the near/far-field. Therefore, accurate mechanistic models are necessary to predict glass dissolution, and these should be robust to a variety of incorporated waste species and leaching test conditions, particularly given substantial variations across international waste-streams. Here, machine learning is used to predict glass material properties (viscosity, density) and glass leaching model parameters from large-scale industrial data. A variety of different machine learning algorithms have been compared to assess performance. Density was predicted solely from composition, whereas viscosity additionally considered temperature. To predict suitable glass leaching model parameters, a large simulated dataset was created by coupling MATLAB and the chemical reactive-transport code HYTEC, considering the state-of-the-art GRAAL model (glass reactivity in allowance of the alteration layer). The trained models were then subsequently applied to the large-scale industrial, experimental data to identify potentially appropriate model parameters. Results indicate that ensemble methods can accurately predict viscosity as a function of temperature and composition across all three industrial datasets. Glass density prediction shows reliable learning performance with predictions primarily being within the experimental uncertainty of the test data. Furthermore, machine learning can predict glass dissolution model parameters behavior, demonstrating potential value in GRAAL model development and in assessing suitable model parameters for large-scale industrial glass dissolution data.

Keywords: machine learning, predictive modelling, pattern recognition, radioactive waste glass

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Authors: Diana Ivanova Bakalova, Ekaterina Evtimova Dimitrova

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The purpose of this paper is to examine the predictive power of optimistic expectations and satisfaction with life in the country of origin and residence – Bulgaria, over the attitudes towards emigration among young Bulgarians with regard to their generational belonging and differences (i.e. Generation Y or Millennials, born between 1981-1995/6, and Generation Z or Zoomers, born between 1996/7-2012). Although the correlation between satisfaction with life and migration (attitudes) has been studied in some countries, it has neither been examined to date in Bulgaria – a sending rather than receiving Eastern European country, nor scrutinized in the light of generational differences. Within a national survey(N=1200), representative of young Bulgarians aged 18-35 years – Zoomers aged 18-25years (N=444) and Millennials aged 26-35 years (N=756), carried out in September-October 2021, optimistic expectations and satisfaction with life in Bulgaria were respectively measured by a 5-item and4-item scales. The scales were designed to measure optimistic expectations and satisfaction with life in the country, as both general constructs and in terms of specific areas of life (education, profession, career, and income). The findings suggest that the higher satisfaction with life in Bulgaria is associated with more optimistic expectations about one’s further professional, financial, and career growth in the country and reasonably, with more negative attitudes towards emigration of young Bulgarians. Although no significant differences were found between Millennials and Zoomers in their optimistic expectations and satisfaction with life in Bulgaria, Millennials are still significantly less likely to emigrate than Zoomers. Positively, the population of young Bulgarians demonstrates higher than average satisfaction with life and optimism for their prospects in the country combined with neutral to negative overall attitudes towards emigration. These findings have some important interdisciplinary psychological and demographic theoretical, applied, and policy implications. The survey is carried out under Project КП-06-Н35/4 “Psychological determinants of young people's attitudes to emigration and life planning in the context of demographic challenges in Bulgaria,” funded by the NSF - MES, Bulgaria.

Keywords: optimistic expectations, life satisfaction, emigration attitudes, young bulgerians

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