Search results for: distributed lag model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 18362

Search results for: distributed lag model

17552 Social Media Retailing in the Creator Economy

Authors: Julianne Cai, Weili Xue, Yibin Wu

Abstract:

Social media retailing (SMR) platforms have become popular nowadays. It is characterized by a creative combination of content creation and product selling, which differs from traditional e-tailing (TE) with product selling alone. Motivated by real-world practices like social media platforms “TikTok” and douyin.com, we endeavor to study if the SMR model performs better than the TE model in a monopoly setting. By building a stylized economic model, we find that the SMR model does not always outperform the TE model. Specifically, when the SMR platform collects less commission from the seller than the TE platform, the seller, consumers, and social welfare all benefit more from the SMR model. In contrast, the platform benefits more from the SMR model if and only if the creator’s social influence is high enough or the cost of content creation is small enough. For the incentive structure of the content rewards in the SMR model, we found that a strong incentive mechanism (e.g., the quadratic form) is more powerful than a weak one (e.g., the linear form). The previous one will encourage the creator to choose a much higher quality level of content creation and meanwhile allowing the platform, consumers, and social welfare to become better off. Counterintuitively, providing more generous content rewards is not always helpful for the creator (seller), and it may reduce her profit. Our findings will guide the platform to effectively design incentive mechanisms to boost the content creation and retailing in the SMR model and help the influencers efficiently create content, engage their followers (fans), and price their products sold on the SMR platform.

Keywords: content creation, creator economy, incentive strategy, platform retailing

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17551 Moving beyond the Social Model of Disability by Engaging in Anti-Oppressive Social Work Practice

Authors: Irene Carter, Roy Hanes, Judy MacDonald

Abstract:

Considering that disability is universal and people with disabilities are part of all societies; that there is a connection between the disabled individual and the societal; and that it is society and social arrangements that disable people with impairments, contemporary disability discourse emphasizes the social model of disability to counter medical and rehabilitative models of disability. However, the social model does not go far enough in addressing the issues of oppression and inclusion. The authors indicate that the social model does not specifically or adequately denote the oppression of persons with disabilities, which is a central component of progressive social work practice with people with disabilities. The social model of disability does not go far enough in deconstructing disability and offering social workers, as well as people with disabilities a way of moving forward in terms of practice anchored in individual, familial and societal change. The social model of disability is expanded by incorporating principles of anti-oppression social work practice. Although the contextual analysis of the social model of disability is an important component there remains a need for social workers to provide service to individuals and their families, which will be illustrated through anti-oppressive practice (AOP). By applying an anti-oppressive model of practice to the above definitions, the authors not only deconstruct disability paradigms but illustrate how AOP offers a framework for social workers to engage with people with disabilities at the individual, familial and community levels of practice, promoting an emancipatory focus in working with people with disabilities. An anti- social- oppression social work model of disability connects the day-to-day hardships of people with disabilities to the direct consequence of oppression in the form of ableism. AOP theory finds many of its basic concepts within social-oppression theory and the social model of disability. It is often the case that practitioners, including social workers and psychologists, define people with disabilities’ as having or being a problem with the focus placed upon adjustment and coping. A case example will be used to illustrate how an AOP paradigm offers social work a more comprehensive and critical analysis and practice model for social work practice with and for people with disabilities than the traditional medical model, rehabilitative and social model approaches.

Keywords: anti-oppressive practice, disability, people with disabilities, social model of disability

Procedia PDF Downloads 1082
17550 Agricultural Knowledge Management System Design, Use, and Consequence for Knowledge Sharing and Integration

Authors: Dejen Alemu, Murray E. Jennex, Temtim Assefa

Abstract:

This paper is investigated to understand the design, the use, and the consequence of Knowledge Management System (KMS) for knowledge systems sharing and integration. A KMS for knowledge systems sharing and integration is designed to meet the challenges raised by knowledge management researchers and practitioners: the technical, the human, and social factors. Agricultural KMS involves various members coming from different Communities of Practice (CoPs) who possess their own knowledge of multiple practices which need to be combined in the system development. However, the current development of the technology ignored the indigenous knowledge of the local communities, which is the key success factor for agriculture. This research employed the multi-methodological approach to KMS research in action research perspective which consists of four strategies: theory building, experimentation, observation, and system development. Using the KMS development practice of Ethiopian agricultural transformation agency as a case study, this research employed an interpretive analysis using primary qualitative data acquired through in-depth semi-structured interviews and participant observations. The Orlikowski's structuration model of technology has been used to understand the design, the use, and the consequence of the KMS. As a result, the research identified three basic components for the architecture of the shared KMS, namely, the people, the resources, and the implementation subsystems. The KMS were developed using web 2.0 tools to promote knowledge sharing and integration among diverse groups of users in a distributed environment. The use of a shared KMS allows users to access diverse knowledge from a number of users in different groups of participants, enhances the exchange of different forms of knowledge and experience, and creates high interaction and collaboration among participants. The consequences of a shared KMS on the social system includes, the elimination of hierarchical structure, enhance participation, collaboration, and negotiation among users from different CoPs having common interest, knowledge and skill development, integration of diverse knowledge resources, and the requirement of policy and guideline. The research contributes methodologically for the application of system development action research for understanding a conceptual framework for KMS development and use. The research have also theoretical contribution in extending structuration model of technology for the incorporation of variety of knowledge and practical implications to provide management understanding in developing strategies for the potential of web 2.0 tools for sharing and integration of indigenous knowledge.

Keywords: communities of practice, indigenous knowledge, participation, structuration model of technology, Web 2.0 tools

Procedia PDF Downloads 253
17549 Evolving Software Assessment and Certification Models Using Ant Colony Optimization Algorithm

Authors: Saad M. Darwish

Abstract:

Recently, software quality issues have come to be seen as important subject as we see an enormous growth of agencies involved in software industries. However, these agencies cannot guarantee the quality of their products, thus leaving users in uncertainties. Software certification is the extension of quality by means that quality needs to be measured prior to certification granting process. This research participates in solving the problem of software assessment by proposing a model for assessment and certification of software product that uses a fuzzy inference engine to integrate both of process–driven and application-driven quality assurance strategies. The key idea of the on hand model is to improve the compactness and the interpretability of the model’s fuzzy rules via employing an ant colony optimization algorithm (ACO), which tries to find good rules description by dint of compound rules initially expressed with traditional single rules. The model has been tested by case study and the results have demonstrated feasibility and practicability of the model in a real environment.

Keywords: software quality, quality assurance, software certification model, software assessment

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17548 Local Image Features Emerging from Brain Inspired Multi-Layer Neural Network

Authors: Hui Wei, Zheng Dong

Abstract:

Object recognition has long been a challenging task in computer vision. Yet the human brain, with the ability to rapidly and accurately recognize visual stimuli, manages this task effortlessly. In the past decades, advances in neuroscience have revealed some neural mechanisms underlying visual processing. In this paper, we present a novel model inspired by the visual pathway in primate brains. This multi-layer neural network model imitates the hierarchical convergent processing mechanism in the visual pathway. We show that local image features generated by this model exhibit robust discrimination and even better generalization ability compared with some existing image descriptors. We also demonstrate the application of this model in an object recognition task on image data sets. The result provides strong support for the potential of this model.

Keywords: biological model, feature extraction, multi-layer neural network, object recognition

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17547 From Preoccupied Attachment Pattern to Depression: Serial Mediation Model on the Female Sample

Authors: Tatjana Stefanovic Stanojevic, Milica Tosic Radev, Aleksandra Bogdanovic

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Depression is considered to be a leading cause of death and disability in the female population, and that is the reason why understanding the dynamics of the onset of depressive symptomatology is important. A review of the literature indicates the relationship between depressive symptoms and insecure attachment patterns, but very few studies have examined the mechanism underlying this relation. The aim of the study was to examine the pathway from the preoccupied attachment pattern to depressive symptomatology, as well as to test the mediation effect of mentalization, social anxiety and rumination in this relationship using a serial mediation model. The research was carried out on a geographical cluster sample from the general population of Serbia included within the project ‘Indicators and models of family and work roles harmonization’ funded by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. This research was carried out on a subsample of 791 working-age female adults from 37 urban and rural locations distributed through 20 administrative districts of Serbia. The respondents filled in a battery of instruments, including Relationship Questionnaire - Clinical Version (RQ - CV), The Mentalization Scale (MentS), Scale of Social Anxiety (SA), Patient Ruminative Thought Style Questionnaire (RTSQ), Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). The results confirm our assumption that the total indirect effect of the preoccupied attachment pattern to depressive symptoms is significant across all mediators separately. More importantly, this effect is still present in a model with a sequential mediator relationship, where social anxiety, rumination, and mentalization were perceived as serial mediators of a relationship between preoccupied attachment and depressive symptoms (estimated indirect effect=0.004, boot-strapped 95% CI=0.002 to 0.007). Our findings suggest that there is a significant specific indirect effect of the preoccupied attachment pattern to depressive symptoms, occurring through mentalization, social anxiety and rumination, indicating that preoccupied attachment cause decrease of a self related mentalization, which in turn causes increasing of social anxiety and rumination, concluding in depressive symptoms as a final consequence. The finding that the path from the preoccupied attachment pattern to depressive symptoms is typical in women is understandable from the perspective of both evolutionary and culturally conditioned gender differences. The practical implications of the study are reflected in the recommendations for the prevention and forehand psychotherapy response among preoccupied women with depressive symptomatology. Treatment of this specific group of depressed patients should be focused on strengthening mentalization, learning to accept and to understand herself better, reducing anxiety in situations where mistakes are visible to others, and replacing the rumination strategy with more constructive coping strategies.

Keywords: preoccupied attachment, depression, serial mediation model, mentalization, rumination

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17546 Aerial Survey and 3D Scanning Technology Applied to the Survey of Cultural Heritage of Su-Paiwan, an Aboriginal Settlement, Taiwan

Authors: April Hueimin Lu, Liangj-Ju Yao, Jun-Tin Lin, Susan Siru Liu

Abstract:

This paper discusses the application of aerial survey technology and 3D laser scanning technology in the surveying and mapping work of the settlements and slate houses of the old Taiwanese aborigines. The relics of old Taiwanese aborigines with thousands of history are widely distributed in the deep mountains of Taiwan, with a vast area and inconvenient transportation. When constructing the basic data of cultural assets, it is necessary to apply new technology to carry out efficient and accurate settlement mapping work. In this paper, taking the old Paiwan as an example, the aerial survey of the settlement of about 5 hectares and the 3D laser scanning of a slate house were carried out. The obtained orthophoto image was used as an important basis for drawing the settlement map. This 3D landscape data of topography and buildings derived from the aerial survey is important for subsequent preservation planning as well as building 3D scan provides a more detailed record of architectural forms and materials. The 3D settlement data from the aerial survey can be further applied to the 3D virtual model and animation of the settlement for virtual presentation. The information from the 3D scanning of the slate house can also be used for further digital archives and data queries through network resources. The results of this study show that, in large-scale settlement surveys, aerial surveying technology is used to construct the topography of settlements with buildings and spatial information of landscape, as well as the application of 3D scanning for small-scale records of individual buildings. This application of 3D technology, greatly increasing the efficiency and accuracy of survey and mapping work of aboriginal settlements, is much helpful for further preservation planning and rejuvenation of aboriginal cultural heritage.

Keywords: aerial survey, 3D scanning, aboriginal settlement, settlement architecture cluster, ecological landscape area, old Paiwan settlements, slat house, photogrammetry, SfM, MVS), Point cloud, SIFT, DSM, 3D model

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17545 Application Difference between Cox and Logistic Regression Models

Authors: Idrissa Kayijuka

Abstract:

The logistic regression and Cox regression models (proportional hazard model) at present are being employed in the analysis of prospective epidemiologic research looking into risk factors in their application on chronic diseases. However, a theoretical relationship between the two models has been studied. By definition, Cox regression model also called Cox proportional hazard model is a procedure that is used in modeling data regarding time leading up to an event where censored cases exist. Whereas the Logistic regression model is mostly applicable in cases where the independent variables consist of numerical as well as nominal values while the resultant variable is binary (dichotomous). Arguments and findings of many researchers focused on the overview of Cox and Logistic regression models and their different applications in different areas. In this work, the analysis is done on secondary data whose source is SPSS exercise data on BREAST CANCER with a sample size of 1121 women where the main objective is to show the application difference between Cox regression model and logistic regression model based on factors that cause women to die due to breast cancer. Thus we did some analysis manually i.e. on lymph nodes status, and SPSS software helped to analyze the mentioned data. This study found out that there is an application difference between Cox and Logistic regression models which is Cox regression model is used if one wishes to analyze data which also include the follow-up time whereas Logistic regression model analyzes data without follow-up-time. Also, they have measurements of association which is different: hazard ratio and odds ratio for Cox and logistic regression models respectively. A similarity between the two models is that they are both applicable in the prediction of the upshot of a categorical variable i.e. a variable that can accommodate only a restricted number of categories. In conclusion, Cox regression model differs from logistic regression by assessing a rate instead of proportion. The two models can be applied in many other researches since they are suitable methods for analyzing data but the more recommended is the Cox, regression model.

Keywords: logistic regression model, Cox regression model, survival analysis, hazard ratio

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17544 Comparison of Wake Oscillator Models to Predict Vortex-Induced Vibration of Tall Chimneys

Authors: Saba Rahman, Arvind K. Jain, S. D. Bharti, T. K. Datta

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The present study compares the semi-empirical wake-oscillator models that are used to predict vortex-induced vibration of structures. These models include those proposed by Facchinetti, Farshidian, and Dolatabadi, and Skop and Griffin. These models combine a wake oscillator model resembling the Van der Pol oscillator model and a single degree of freedom oscillation model. In order to use these models for estimating the top displacement of chimneys, the first mode vibration of the chimneys is only considered. The modal equation of the chimney constitutes the single degree of freedom model (SDOF). The equations of the wake oscillator model and the SDOF are simultaneously solved using an iterative procedure. The empirical parameters used in the wake-oscillator models are estimated using a newly developed approach, and response is compared with experimental data, which appeared comparable. For carrying out the iterative solution, the ode solver of MATLAB is used. To carry out the comparative study, a tall concrete chimney of height 210m has been chosen with the base diameter as 28m, top diameter as 20m, and thickness as 0.3m. The responses of the chimney are also determined using the linear model proposed by E. Simiu and the deterministic model given in Eurocode. It is observed from the comparative study that the responses predicted by the Facchinetti model and the model proposed by Skop and Griffin are nearly the same, while the model proposed by Fashidian and Dolatabadi predicts a higher response. The linear model without considering the aero-elastic phenomenon provides a less response as compared to the non-linear models. Further, for large damping, the prediction of the response by the Euro code is relatively well compared to those of non-linear models.

Keywords: chimney, deterministic model, van der pol, vortex-induced vibration

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17543 An Entropy Based Novel Algorithm for Internal Attack Detection in Wireless Sensor Network

Authors: Muhammad R. Ahmed, Mohammed Aseeri

Abstract:

Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) consists of low-cost and multi functional resources constrain nodes that communicate at short distances through wireless links. It is open media and underpinned by an application driven technology for information gathering and processing. It can be used for many different applications range from military implementation in the battlefield, environmental monitoring, health sector as well as emergency response of surveillance. With its nature and application scenario, security of WSN had drawn a great attention. It is known to be valuable to variety of attacks for the construction of nodes and distributed network infrastructure. In order to ensure its functionality especially in malicious environments, security mechanisms are essential. Malicious or internal attacker has gained prominence and poses the most challenging attacks to WSN. Many works have been done to secure WSN from internal attacks but most of it relay on either training data set or predefined threshold. Without a fixed security infrastructure a WSN needs to find the internal attacks is a challenge. In this paper we present an internal attack detection method based on maximum entropy model. The final experimental works showed that the proposed algorithm does work well at the designed level.

Keywords: internal attack, wireless sensor network, network security, entropy

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17542 On Differential Growth Equation to Stochastic Growth Model Using Hyperbolic Sine Function in Height/Diameter Modeling of Pines

Authors: S. O. Oyamakin, A. U. Chukwu

Abstract:

Richard's growth equation being a generalized logistic growth equation was improved upon by introducing an allometric parameter using the hyperbolic sine function. The integral solution to this was called hyperbolic Richard's growth model having transformed the solution from deterministic to a stochastic growth model. Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical Richard's growth model an approach which mimicked the natural variability of heights/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) results. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the behavior of the error term for possible violations. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic Richard's nonlinear growth models better than the classical Richard's growth model.

Keywords: height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, Richard's, stochastic

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17541 Development of a Predictive Model to Prevent Financial Crisis

Authors: Tengqin Han

Abstract:

Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

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17540 Antibacterial Wound Dressing Based on Metal Nanoparticles Containing Cellulose Nanofibers

Authors: Mohamed Gouda

Abstract:

Antibacterial wound dressings based on cellulose nanofibers containing different metal nanoparticles (CMC-MNPs) were synthesized using an electrospinning technique. First, the composite of carboxymethyl cellulose containing different metal nanoparticles (CMC/MNPs), such as copper nanoparticles (CuNPs), iron nanoparticles (FeNPs), zinc nanoparticles (ZnNPs), cadmium nanoparticles (CdNPs) and cobalt nanoparticles (CoNPs) were synthesized, and finally, these composites were transferred to the electrospinning process. Synthesized CMC-MNPs were characterized using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) coupled with high-energy dispersive X-ray (EDX) and UV-visible spectroscopy used to confirm nanoparticle formation. The SEM images clearly showed regular flat shapes with semi-porous surfaces. All MNPs were well distributed inside the backbone of the cellulose without aggregation. The average particle diameters were 29-39 nm for ZnNPs, 29-33 nm for CdNPs, 25-33 nm for CoNPs, 23-27 nm for CuNPs and 22-26 nm for FeNPs. Surface morphology, water uptake and release of MNPs from the nanofibers in water and antimicrobial efficacy were studied. SEM images revealed that electrospun CMC-MNPs nanofibers are smooth and uniformly distributed without bead formation with average fiber diameters in the range of 300 to 450 nm. Fiber diameters were not affected by the presence of MNPs. TEM images showed that MNPs are present in/on the electrospun CMC-MNPs nanofibers. The diameter of the electrospun nanofibers containing MNPs was in the range of 300–450 nm. The MNPs were observed to be spherical in shape. The CMC-MNPs nanofibers showed good hydrophilic properties and had excellent antibacterial activity against the Gram-negative bacteria Escherichia coli and the Gram-positive bacteria Staphylococcus aureus.

Keywords: electrospinning technique, metal nanoparticles, cellulosic nanofibers, wound dressing

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17539 Using Hidden Markov Chain for Improving the Dependability of Safety-Critical Wireless Sensor Networks

Authors: Issam Alnader, Aboubaker Lasebae, Rand Raheem

Abstract:

Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) are distributed network systems used in a wide range of applications, including safety-critical systems. The latter provide critical services, often concerned with human life or assets. Therefore, ensuring the dependability requirements of Safety critical systems is of paramount importance. The purpose of this paper is to utilize the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to elongate the service availability of WSNs by increasing the time it takes a node to become obsolete via optimal load balancing. We propose an HMM algorithm that, given a WSN, analyses and predicts undesirable situations, notably, nodes dying unexpectedly or prematurely. We apply this technique to improve on C. Lius’ algorithm, a scheduling-based algorithm which has served to improve the lifetime of WSNs. Our experiments show that our HMM technique improves the lifetime of the network, achieved by detecting nodes that die early and rebalancing their load. Our technique can also be used for diagnosis and provide maintenance warnings to WSN system administrators. Finally, our technique can be used to improve algorithms other than C. Liu’s.

Keywords: wireless sensor networks, IoT, dependability of safety WSNs, energy conservation, sleep awake schedule

Procedia PDF Downloads 100
17538 Managing Data from One Hundred Thousand Internet of Things Devices Globally for Mining Insights

Authors: Julian Wise

Abstract:

Newcrest Mining is one of the world’s top five gold and rare earth mining organizations by production, reserves and market capitalization in the world. This paper elaborates on the data acquisition processes employed by Newcrest in collaboration with Fortune 500 listed organization, Insight Enterprises, to standardize machine learning solutions which process data from over a hundred thousand distributed Internet of Things (IoT) devices located at mine sites globally. Through the utilization of software architecture cloud technologies and edge computing, the technological developments enable for standardized processes of machine learning applications to influence the strategic optimization of mineral processing. Target objectives of the machine learning optimizations include time savings on mineral processing, production efficiencies, risk identification, and increased production throughput. The data acquired and utilized for predictive modelling is processed through edge computing by resources collectively stored within a data lake. Being involved in the digital transformation has necessitated the standardization software architecture to manage the machine learning models submitted by vendors, to ensure effective automation and continuous improvements to the mineral process models. Operating at scale, the system processes hundreds of gigabytes of data per day from distributed mine sites across the globe, for the purposes of increased improved worker safety, and production efficiency through big data applications.

Keywords: mineral technology, big data, machine learning operations, data lake

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17537 Proactive WPA/WPA2 Security Using DD-WRT Firmware

Authors: Mustafa Kamoona, Mohamed El-Sharkawy

Abstract:

Although the latest Wireless Local Area Network technology Wi-Fi 802.11i standard addresses many of the security weaknesses of the antecedent Wired Equivalent Privacy (WEP) protocol, there are still scenarios where the network security are still vulnerable. The first security model that 802.11i offers is the Personal model which is very cheap and simple to install and maintain, yet it uses a Pre Shared Key (PSK) and thus has a low to medium security level. The second model that 802.11i provide is the Enterprise model which is highly secured but much more expensive and difficult to install/maintain and requires the installation and maintenance of an authentication server that will handle the authentication and key management for the wireless network. A central issue with the personal model is that the PSK needs to be shared with all the devices that are connected to the specific Wi-Fi network. This pre-shared key, unless changed regularly, can be cracked using offline dictionary attacks within a matter of hours. The key is burdensome to change in all the connected devices manually unless there is some kind of algorithm that coordinate this PSK update. The key idea of this paper is to propose a new algorithm that proactively and effectively coordinates the pre-shared key generation, management, and distribution in the cheap WPA/WPA2 personal security model using only a DD-WRT router.

Keywords: Wi-Fi, WPS, TLS, DD-WRT

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17536 Forecasting Age-Specific Mortality Rates and Life Expectancy at Births for Malaysian Sub-Populations

Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

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In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

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17535 Efficient Sampling of Probabilistic Program for Biological Systems

Authors: Keerthi S. Shetty, Annappa Basava

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In recent years, modelling of biological systems represented by biochemical reactions has become increasingly important in Systems Biology. Biological systems represented by biochemical reactions are highly stochastic in nature. Probabilistic model is often used to describe such systems. One of the main challenges in Systems biology is to combine absolute experimental data into probabilistic model. This challenge arises because (1) some molecules may be present in relatively small quantities, (2) there is a switching between individual elements present in the system, and (3) the process is inherently stochastic on the level at which observations are made. In this paper, we describe a novel idea of combining absolute experimental data into probabilistic model using tool R2. Through a case study of the Transcription Process in Prokaryotes we explain how biological systems can be written as probabilistic program to combine experimental data into the model. The model developed is then analysed in terms of intrinsic noise and exact sampling of switching times between individual elements in the system. We have mainly concentrated on inferring number of genes in ON and OFF states from experimental data.

Keywords: systems biology, probabilistic model, inference, biology, model

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17534 Machine Learning Model Applied for SCM Processes to Efficiently Determine Its Impacts on the Environment

Authors: Elena Puica

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This paper aims to investigate the impact of Supply Chain Management (SCM) on the environment by applying a Machine Learning model while pointing out the efficiency of the technology used. The Machine Learning model was used to derive the efficiency and optimization of technology used in SCM and the environmental impact of SCM processes. The model applied is a predictive classification model and was trained firstly to determine which stage of the SCM has more outputs and secondly to demonstrate the efficiency of using advanced technology in SCM instead of recuring to traditional SCM. The outputs are the emissions generated in the environment, the consumption from different steps in the life cycle, the resulting pollutants/wastes emitted, and all the releases to air, land, and water. This manuscript presents an innovative approach to applying advanced technology in SCM and simultaneously studies the efficiency of technology and the SCM's impact on the environment. Identifying the conceptual relationships between SCM practices and their impact on the environment is a new contribution to the research. The authors can take a forward step in developing recent studies in SCM and its effects on the environment by applying technology.

Keywords: machine-learning model in SCM, SCM processes, SCM and the environmental impact, technology in SCM

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17533 Flow Control Optimisation Using Vortex Generators in Turbine Blade

Authors: J. Karthik, G. Vinayagamurthy

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Aerodynamic flow control is achieved by interaction of flowing medium with corresponding structure so that its natural flow state is disturbed to delay the transition point. This paper explains the aerodynamic effect and optimized design of Vortex Generators on the turbine blade to achieve maximum flow control. The airfoil is chosen from NREL [National Renewable Energy Laboratory] S-series airfoil as they are characterized with good lift characteristics and lower noise. Vortex generators typically chosen are Ogival, Rectangular, Triangular and Tapered Fin shapes attached near leading edge. Vortex generators are typically distributed from the primary to tip of the blade section. The design wind speed is taken as 6m/s and the computational analysis is executed. The blade surface is simulated using k- ɛ SST model and results are compared with X-FOIL results. The computational results are validated using Wind Tunnel Testing of the blade corresponding to the design speed. The effect of Vortex generators on the flow characteristics is studied from the results of analysis. By comparing the computational and test results of all shapes of Vortex generators; the optimized design is achieved for effective flow control corresponding to the blade.

Keywords: flow control, vortex generators, design optimisation, CFD

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17532 The Effect of Action Potential Duration and Conduction Velocity on Cardiac Pumping Efficacy: Simulation Study

Authors: Ana Rahma Yuniarti, Ki Moo Lim

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Slowed myocardial conduction velocity (CV) and shortened action potential duration (APD) due to some reason are associated with an increased risk of re-entrant excitation, predisposing to cardiac arrhythmia. That is because both of CV reduction and APD shortening induces shortening of wavelength. In this study, we investigated quantitatively the cardiac mechanical responses under various CV and APD using multi-scale computational model of the heart. The model consisted of electrical model coupled with the mechanical contraction model together with a lumped model of the circulatory system. The electrical model consisted of 149.344 numbers of nodes and 183.993 numbers of elements of tetrahedral mesh, whereas the mechanical model consisted of 356 numbers of nodes and 172 numbers of elements of hexahedral mesh with hermite basis. We performed the electrical simulation with two scenarios: 1) by varying the CV values with constant APD and 2) by varying the APD values with constant CV. Then, we compared the electrical and mechanical responses for both scenarios. Our simulation showed that faster CV and longer APD induced largest resultants wavelength and generated better cardiac pumping efficacy by increasing the cardiac output and consuming less energy. This is due to the long wave propagation and faster conduction generated more synchronous contraction of whole ventricle.

Keywords: conduction velocity, action potential duration, mechanical contraction model, circulatory model

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17531 Analyzing the Factors that Cause Parallel Performance Degradation in Parallel Graph-Based Computations Using Graph500

Authors: Mustafa Elfituri, Jonathan Cook

Abstract:

Recently, graph-based computations have become more important in large-scale scientific computing as they can provide a methodology to model many types of relations between independent objects. They are being actively used in fields as varied as biology, social networks, cybersecurity, and computer networks. At the same time, graph problems have some properties such as irregularity and poor locality that make their performance different than regular applications performance. Therefore, parallelizing graph algorithms is a hard and challenging task. Initial evidence is that standard computer architectures do not perform very well on graph algorithms. Little is known exactly what causes this. The Graph500 benchmark is a representative application for parallel graph-based computations, which have highly irregular data access and are driven more by traversing connected data than by computation. In this paper, we present results from analyzing the performance of various example implementations of Graph500, including a shared memory (OpenMP) version, a distributed (MPI) version, and a hybrid version. We measured and analyzed all the factors that affect its performance in order to identify possible changes that would improve its performance. Results are discussed in relation to what factors contribute to performance degradation.

Keywords: graph computation, graph500 benchmark, parallel architectures, parallel programming, workload characterization.

Procedia PDF Downloads 146
17530 Application of Computational Flow Dynamics (CFD) Analysis for Surge Inception and Propagation for Low Head Hydropower Projects

Authors: M. Mohsin Munir, Taimoor Ahmad, Javed Munir, Usman Rashid

Abstract:

Determination of maximum elevation of a flowing fluid due to sudden rejection of load in a hydropower facility is of great interest to hydraulic engineers to ensure safety of the hydraulic structures. Several mathematical models exist that employ one-dimensional modeling for the determination of surge but none of these perfectly simulate real-time circumstances. The paper envisages investigation of surge inception and propagation for a Low Head Hydropower project using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis on FLOW-3D software package. The fluid dynamic model utilizes its analysis for surge by employing Reynolds’ Averaged Navier-Stokes Equations (RANSE). The CFD model is designed for a case study at Taunsa hydropower Project in Pakistan. Various scenarios have run through the model keeping in view upstream boundary conditions. The prototype results were then compared with the results of physical model testing for the same scenarios. The results of the numerical model proved quite accurate coherence with the physical model testing and offers insight into phenomenon which are not apparent in physical model and shall be adopted in future for the similar low head projects limiting delays and cost incurred in the physical model testing.

Keywords: surge, FLOW-3D, numerical model, Taunsa, RANSE

Procedia PDF Downloads 357
17529 Joint Modeling of Bottle Use, Daily Milk Intake from Bottles, and Daily Energy Intake in Toddlers

Authors: Yungtai Lo

Abstract:

The current study follows an educational intervention on bottle-weaning to simultaneously evaluate the effect of the bottle-weaning intervention on reducing bottle use, daily milk intake from bottles, and daily energy intake in toddlers aged 11 to 13 months. A shared parameter model and a random effects model are used to jointly model bottle use, daily milk intake from bottles, and daily energy intake. We show in the two joint models that the bottle-weaning intervention promotes bottleweaning, and reduces daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers not off bottles and daily energy intake. We also show that the odds of drinking from a bottle were positively associated with the amount of milk intake from bottles and increased daily milk intake from bottles was associated with increased daily energy intake. The effect of bottle use on daily energy intake is through its effect on increasing daily milk intake from bottles that in turn increases daily energy intake.

Keywords: two-part model, semi-continuous variable, joint model, gamma regression, shared parameter model, random effects model

Procedia PDF Downloads 286
17528 Channel Estimation for Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing Systems over Doubly Selective Channels Base on DCS-DCSOMP Algorithm

Authors: Linyu Wang, Furui Huo, Jianhong Xiang

Abstract:

The Doppler shift generated by high-speed movement and multipath effects in the channel are the main reasons for the generation of a time-frequency doubly-selective (DS) channel. There is severe inter-carrier interference (ICI) in the DS channel. Channel estimation for an orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) system over a DS channel is very difficult. The simultaneous orthogonal matching pursuit algorithm under distributed compressive sensing theory (DCS-SOMP) has been used in channel estimation for OFDM systems over DS channels. However, the reconstruction accuracy of the DCS-SOMP algorithm is not high enough in the low SNR stage. To solve this problem, in this paper, we propose an improved DCS-SOMP algorithm based on the inner product difference comparison operation (DCS-DCSOMP). The reconstruction accuracy is improved by increasing the number of candidate indexes and designing the comparison conditions of inner product difference. We combine the DCS-DCSOMP algorithm with the basis expansion model (BEM) to reduce the complexity of channel estimation. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm and its advantages over other algorithms.

Keywords: OFDM, doubly selective, channel estimation, compressed sensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 94
17527 Blockchain for IoT Security and Privacy in Healthcare Sector

Authors: Umair Shafique, Hafiz Usman Zia, Fiaz Majeed, Samina Naz, Javeria Ahmed, Maleeha Zainab

Abstract:

The Internet of Things (IoT) has become a hot topic for the last couple of years. This innovative technology has shown promising progress in various areas, and the world has witnessed exponential growth in multiple application domains. Researchers are working to investigate its aptitudes to get the best from it by harnessing its true potential. But at the same time, IoT networks open up a new aspect of vulnerability and physical threats to data integrity, privacy, and confidentiality. It's is due to centralized control, data silos approach for handling information, and a lack of standardization in the IoT networks. As we know, blockchain is a new technology that involves creating secure distributed ledgers to store and communicate data. Some of the benefits include resiliency, integrity, anonymity, decentralization, and autonomous control. The potential for blockchain technology to provide the key to managing and controlling IoT has created a new wave of excitement around the idea of putting that data back into the hands of the end-users. In this manuscript, we have proposed a model that combines blockchain and IoT networks to address potential security and privacy issues in the healthcare domain. Then we try to describe various application areas, challenges, and future directions in the healthcare sector where blockchain platforms merge with IoT networks.

Keywords: IoT, blockchain, cryptocurrency, healthcare, consensus, data

Procedia PDF Downloads 177
17526 Entrepreneurial Practice and Corruption in Tourism Sector: A Study of Entrepreneurial Orientation and Organizational Corruption in Nepali Star Hotels

Authors: Prabin Raj Gautam

Abstract:

Entrepreneurship in tourism sectors, particularly hotel entrepreneurship has contributed to Nepalese Gross Domestic Production (GDP). The tourist standard and star hotels in developing countries have not only been generating revenues but also providing international hospitality to the guest in the local areas. For doing so, these hotel enterprises must need to implement different business strategies to enhance and maintain their international business benchmark. The Entrepreneurial Orientation (EO) is core for making business strategies. Meanwhile, the corruption is labeled as negative factor for economic development. This paper presents the relationship between EO of Nepalese star hotels and organizational corruption. The study employed questionnaire survey as data collection tool under the quantitative methodology. Five hypotheses are developed and tested. After gathering the data form 216 questionnaire distributed to CEOs/Managers of the sample hotels, the findings show that out of five dimensions of EO, only autonomy, pro-activeness, and innovativeness are not significant to organizational corruption; however, risk-taking and competitive aggressiveness are found significant contributor. The descriptive statistics and structural equation modeling are employed to describe the data and fit the model.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, entrepreneurial orientation, organizational corruption, dimensions

Procedia PDF Downloads 316
17525 A Numerical Model Simulation for an Updraft Gasifier Using High-Temperature Steam

Authors: T. M. Ismail, M. A. El-Salam

Abstract:

A mathematical model study was carried out to investigate gasification of biomass fuels using high-temperature air and steam as a gasifying agent using high-temperature air up to 1000°C. In this study, a 2D computational fluid dynamics model was developed to study the gasification process in an updraft gasifier, considering drying, pyrolysis, combustion, and gasification reactions. The gas and solid phases were resolved using a Euler−Euler multiphase approach, with exchange terms for the momentum, mass, and energy. The standard k−ε turbulence model was used in the gas phase, and the particle phase was modeled using the kinetic theory of granular flow. The results show that the present model giving a promising way in its capability and sensitivity for the parameter effects that influence the gasification process.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, gasification, biomass fuel, fixed bed gasifier

Procedia PDF Downloads 404
17524 Multiphase Flow Model for 3D Numerical Model Using ANSYS for Flow over Stepped Cascade with End Sill

Authors: Dheyaa Wajid Abbood, Hanan Hussien Abood

Abstract:

Stepped cascade has been utilized as a hydraulic structure for years. It has proven to be the least costly aeration system in replenishing dissolved oxygen. Numerical modeling of stepped cascade with end sill is very complicated and challenging because of the high roughness and velocity re circulation regions. Volume of fluid multiphase flow model (VOF) is used .The realizable k-ξ model is chosen to simulate turbulence. The computational results are compared with lab-scale stepped cascade data. The lab –scale model was constructed in the hydraulic laboratory, Al-Mustansiriya University, Iraq. The stepped cascade was 0.23 m wide and consisted of 3 steps each 0.2m high and 0.6 m long with variable end sill. The discharge was varied from 1 to 4 l/s. ANSYS has been employed to simulate the experimental data and their related results. This study shows that ANSYS is able to predict results almost the same as experimental findings in some regions of the structure.

Keywords: stepped cascade weir, aeration, multiphase flow model, ansys

Procedia PDF Downloads 334
17523 Developing an Integrated Seismic Risk Model for Existing Buildings in Northern Algeria

Authors: R. Monteiro, A. Abarca

Abstract:

Large scale seismic risk assessment has become increasingly popular to evaluate the physical vulnerability of a given region to seismic events, by putting together hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. This study, developed within the scope of the EU-funded project ITERATE (Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria), explains the steps and expected results for the development of an integrated seismic risk model for assessment of the vulnerability of residential buildings in Northern Algeria. For this purpose, the model foresees the consideration of an updated seismic hazard model, as well as ad-hoc exposure and physical vulnerability models for local residential buildings. The first results of this endeavor, such as the hazard model and a specific taxonomy to be used for the exposure and fragility components of the model are presented, using as starting point the province of Blida, in Algeria. Specific remarks and conclusions regarding the characteristics of the Northern Algerian in-built are then made based on these results.

Keywords: Northern Algeria, risk, seismic hazard, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 199