Search results for: ordinal response models

Authors: Sriram Kashyap Prasad, Ionut Florescu

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This study models the intraday asset prices as driven by Markov process. This work identifies the latent states of the Hidden Markov model, using limit order book data (trades and quotes) to continuously estimate the states throughout the day. This work builds a trading strategy using estimated states to generate signals. The strategy utilizes current state to recalibrate buy/ sell levels and the transition between states to trigger stop-loss when adverse price movements occur. The proposed trading strategy is tested on the Stevens High Frequency Trading (SHIFT) platform. SHIFT is a highly realistic market simulator with functionalities for creating an artificial market simulation by deploying agents, trading strategies, distributing initial wealth, etc. In the implementation several assets on the NASDAQ exchange are used for testing. In comparison to a strategy with static buy/ sell levels, this study shows that the number of limit orders that get matched and executed can be increased. Executing limit orders earns rebates on NASDAQ. The system can capture jumps in the limit order book prices, provide dynamic buy/sell levels and trigger stop loss signals to improve the PnL (Profit and Loss) performance of the strategy.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, Hidden Markov model, high frequency trading, limit order book learning

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Authors: Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Idrees

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The present study has been designed to explore the causes and effects of Youth Bulge in Pakistan. However, youth bulge is a part of population segment which create problem for the whole society. The youth bulge is a common phenomenon in many developing countries, and in particular, in the least developed countries. It is often due to a stage of development where a country achieves success in reducing infant mortality but mothers still have a high fertility rate. The result is that a large share of the population is comprised of children and young adults, and today’s children are tomorrow’s young adults. Youth often play a prominent role in political violence and the existence of a “youth bulge” has been associated with times of political crisis. The population pyramid of Pakistan represents a large youth proportion and our government did not use that youth in positive way and did not provide them opportunity for development, this situation creates frustration in youth that leads them towards conflict, unrest and violence. This study will be focus on the opportunity and motives of the youth bulge situation in Pakistan in the lens of youth bulge theory. Moreover, it will give some suggestions to utilize youth in the development activities and avoid youth bulge situation in Pakistan. The present research was conducted in the metropolitan entities of Punjab, Pakistan. A sample of 300 respondents was taken from three randomly selected metropolitan entities (Faisalabad, Lahore and Rawalpindi) of Punjab Province of Pakistan. Information regarding demography, household, locality and other socio-cultural variables related to causes and effects of youth bulge in the state was collected through a well structured interview schedule. Mean, Standard Deviation and frequency distribution were used to check the measure of central tendency. Multiple linear regression was also applied to measure the influence of various independent variables on the response variable.

Keywords: youth bulge, violence, conflict, social unrest, crime, metropolitan entities, mean, standard deviation, multiple linear regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 450

Authors: Jin-Qu Chen, Jie Liu, Yong Yin, Zi-Qi Ju, Yu-Yao Wu

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Increase in travel fare and station’s failure will have huge impact on passengers’ travel. The Urban Rail Transit (URT) station’s accessibility reliability under increasing travel fare and station failure are analyzed in this paper. Firstly, the passenger’s travel path is resumed based on stochastic user equilibrium and Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) data. Secondly, calculating station’s importance by combining LeaderRank algorithm and Ratio of Station Affected Passenger Volume (RSAPV), and then the station’s accessibility evaluation indicators are proposed based on the analysis of passenger’s travel characteristic. Thirdly, station’s accessibility under different scenarios are measured and rate of accessibility change is proposed as station’s accessibility reliability indicator. Finally, the accessibility of Hangzhou metro stations is analyzed by the formulated models. The result shows that Jinjiang station and Liangzhu station are the most important and convenient station in the Hangzhou metro, respectively. Station failure and increase in travel fare and station failure have huge impact on station’s accessibility, except for increase in travel fare. Stations in Hangzhou metro Line 1 have relatively worse accessibility reliability and Fengqi Road station’s accessibility reliability is weakest. For Hangzhou metro operational department, constructing new metro line around Line 1 and protecting Line 1’s station preferentially can effective improve the accessibility reliability of Hangzhou metro.

Keywords: automatic fare collection data, AFC, station’s accessibility reliability, stochastic user equilibrium, urban rail transit, URT

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Authors: Meltem Haktaniyan, Eda Cagli, Irem Erel Goktepe

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Polymers that change their properties in response to different stimuli (e.g. light, temperature, pH, ionic strength or magnetic field) are called ‘smart’ or ‘stimuli-responsive polymers’. These polymers have been widely used in biomedical applications such as sensors, gene delivery, drug delivery or tissue engineering. Temperature-responsive polymers have been studied extensively for controlled drug delivery applications. As regard of pseudo-peptides, poly (2-alky-2-oxazoline)s are considered as good candidates for delivery systems due to their stealth behavior and nontoxicity. In order to build responsive multilayer films for controlled drug release applications from surface, Layer by layer technique (LBL) is a powerful technique with an advantage of nanometer scale control over spatial architecture and morphology. Multilayers can be constructed on surface where non-covalent interactions including electrostatic interactions, hydrogen bonding, and charge-transfer or hydrophobic-hydrophobic interactions. In the present study, hydrogen bounded multilayer films of poly (2-alky-2-oxazoline) s with tannic acid were prepared in order to use as a platform to release Doxorubicin (DOX) from surface with pH and thermal triggers. For this purpose, poly (2-isopropyl-2-oxazoline) (PIPOX) and poly (2-ethyl-2-oxazoline) (PETOX) were synthesized via cationic ring opening polymerization (CROP) with hydroxyl end groups. Two polymeric multilayer systems ((PETOX)/(DOX)-(TA) complexes and (PIPOX)/(DOX)-(TA) complexes) were designed to investigate of controlled release of Doxorubicin (DOX) from surface with pH and thermal triggers. The drug release profiles from the multilayer thin films with alterations of pH and temperature will been examined with UV-Vis Spectroscopy and Fluorescence Spectroscopy.

Keywords: temperature responsive polymers, h-bonded multilayer films, drug release, polyoxazoline

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Authors: Cornelius Femi Popoola

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Nigerian manufacturing industry, particularly the flour producing firms play vital roles in Nigerian economy. This sector’s quality management practice is given a little attention along with organizational factors that hinder successful practice of total quality management which needs to be documented. Honeywell Flour Mills Plc operate in Nigeria with an appreciable number of products that serves this sector of the economy. Internal-external disposition of the company and total quality practice of the company deserve some elucidations. Hence, this study examined the influence of organizational factors on total quality management practice of Nigerian manufacturing industry, using Honeywell Flour Mills Plc as a case study. The study employed the correlational type of descriptive survey research design. The population consisted of 656 staff of Honeywell Flour Mills Plc, out of which 235 members were selected through scientific sampling method developed by Paler-Calmorin and Calmorin. A total of 235 copies of questionnaires titled 'Organisational Factors and Total Quality Management Practices (QF-TQM) Questionnaire' were administered with a response rate of 66 copies returned. The following variables were applied internal organisational factors (IOFs), external organizational factors (EOFs) and total quality management (TQM). Data generated were analysed using frequency distribution and regression analysis at 0.05 level. The findings revealed that IOFs positively and significantly related with TQM (r = .147**, N= 64, P(.000) < .01). Also, EOFs negatively and significantly related with TQM (r = -.117, N= 64, P(.000) < .01). Findings showed that internal and external organizational factors jointly influenced TQM practiced in F₍₂,₆₁₎=22.250; R²=.629; Adj.R²=.603; P(.000) < .05). The study concluded that organizational factors are determinants of TQM practice in Nigerian manufacturing industry. It is recommended that both internal and external organizational factors influencing TQM practices should be considered in the development of TQM strategies.

Keywords: external organizational factors, internal organisational factors, Nigerian manufacturing industry, total quality management

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Authors: Syahrul Bariah Abdul Hamid, Colin W. Binns, Jun Hui Chih

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The total of obese mothers is growing throughout Asia. Breastfeeding provides the perfect nutrition for infants, by promoting a higher IQ and protecting against childhood and adult diseases. A prospective cohort study was carried out of mothers attending eight antenatal clinics run by the Ministry of Health in Selangor, Malaysia to document the prevalence of obesity and its relationship with breastfeeding outcomes. Mothers were enrolled during the antenatal period and followed up until 6 months postpartum to document breastfeeding outcomes. A total of 652 Malay mothers were recruited for the study a response rate of 93.1 %. The pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) of the mothers showed that 36.5% of the mothers were overweight or obese. There were a total of 78 obese mothers in the sample and 41 (52.6%) of these mothers were able to initiate breastfeeding within one hour of birth compared to 238/337 (70.6 %, χ² 9.35, p<0.001) of those with a normal BMI. At 6 months, 23.1 % of obese mothers were exclusively breastfeeding their infants, compared to 56.0 % of the normal BMI mothers. On the other hand, the rate of infant formula feeding was higher in the obese mothers by 53.8 % compared to 19.0 % among normal weight mothers, χ² 37.6, p<0.001). Further analysis suggested these factors were found to be positively associated with discontinued exclusive breastfeeding at 6 months among obese mothers; mothers whom delayed breastfeeding initiation, had health problems during pregnancy, caesarean delivery, reported had insufficient colostrum/milk and babies had sucking problems at or before 4 weeks. Besides that, mothers who perceived their biological mothers had preference towards formula feeding or were ambivalent about the feeding method and had biological mothers without experience in breastfeeding for more than 1 month also were more likely to discontinue exclusive breastfeeding at 6 months. These findings suggested that the greater the pre-pregnant BMI, the earlier the cessation of exclusive breastfeeding and they were also less likely to initiate breastfeeding and have less adequate milk supply. Future investigations of the effects of maternal obesity on breastfeeding outcomes should be conducted along with effective interventions to advance the care of obese women at reproductive age and their children.

Keywords: exclusive breastfeeding, body mass index (BMI), breastfeeding discontinuation, maternal obesity

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Authors: Zinhle Cindi, Collet Dandara, Mpiko Ntsekhe, Edson Makambwa, Miguel Larceda

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Background: Warfarin is the most commonly used drug in the management of thromboembolic disease. However, there is a huge variability in the time, number of doses or starting doses for patients to achieve the required international normalised ratio (INR) which is compounded by a narrow therapeutic index. Many genetic-association studies have reported on European and Asian populations which have led to the designing of specific algorithms that are now being used to assist in warfarin dosing. However, very few or no studies have looked at the pharmacogenetics of warfarin in African populations, yet, huge differences in dosage requirements to reach the same INR have been observed. Objective: We set out to investigate the distribution of 3 SNPs CYP4F2 c.1347C > T, VKORC1 g.-1639G > A and VKORC1 c.1173C > T among South African Mixed Ancestry (MA) and Black African patients. Methods: DNA was extracted from 383 participants and subsequently genotyped using PCR/RFLP for the CYP4F2 c.1347 (V433M) (rs2108622), VKORC1 g.-1639 (rs9923231) and VKORC1 c.1173 (rs9934438) SNPs. Results: Comparing the Black and MA groups, significant differences were observed in the distribution of the following genotypes; CYP4F2 c.1347C/T (23% vs. 39% p=0.03). All VKORC1 g.-1639G > A genotypes (p < 0.006) and all VKORC1 c.1173C > T genotypes (p < 0.007). Conclusion: CYP4F2 c.1347T (V433M) reduces CYP4F2 protein levels and therefore expected to affect the amount of warfarin needed to block vitamin k recycling. The VKORC1 g-1639A variant alters transcriptional regulation therefore affecting the function of vitamin k epoxide reductase in vitamin k production. The VKORC1 c.1173T variant reduces the enzyme activity of VKORC1 consequently enhancing the effectiveness of warfarin. These are preliminary results; more genetic characterization is required to understand all the genetic determinants affecting how patients respond to warfarin.

Keywords: algorithms, pharmacogenetics, thromboembolic disease, warfarin

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: S. Zith Dey Babu, S. Kour, S. Verma, C. Verma, V. Pathania, A. Agrawal, V. Chaudhary, A. Manoj Puthur, R. Goyal, A. Pal, T. Danti Dey, A. Kumar, K. Wadhwa, O. Ved

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Background: Skin cancer is now is the buzzing button in the field of medical science. The cyst's pandemic is drastically calibrating the body and well-being of the global village. Methods: The extracted image of the skin tumor cannot be used in one way for diagnosis. The stored image contains anarchies like the center. This approach will locate the forepart of an extracted appearance of skin. Partitioning image models has been presented to sort out the disturbance in the picture. Results: After completing partitioning, feature extraction has been formed by using genetic algorithm and finally, classification can be performed between the trained and test data to evaluate a large scale of an image that helps the doctors for the right prediction. To bring the improvisation of the existing system, we have set our objectives with an analysis. The efficiency of the natural selection process and the enriching histogram is essential in that respect. To reduce the false-positive rate or output, GA is performed with its accuracy. Conclusions: The objective of this task is to bring improvisation of effectiveness. GA is accomplishing its task with perfection to bring down the invalid-positive rate or outcome. The paper's mergeable portion conflicts with the composition of deep learning and medical image processing, which provides superior accuracy. Proportional types of handling create the reusability without any errors.

Keywords: computer-aided system, detection, image segmentation, morphology

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Authors: Masica Jordan Alston, Angela N. Bullock, Angela S. Henderson, Stephanie Strianse, Sade Dunn, Joseph Hackett, Alaysia Black Hackett, Marcus Mason

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The Energy Model of Cumulative Grief was created in 2018. The Energy Model of Cumulative Grief utilizes historic models of grief stage theories. The innovative model is additionally unique due to its focus on cultural responsiveness. The Energy Model of Cumulative Grief helps to train practitioners who work with clients dealing with grief and loss. This paper assists in introducing the world to this innovative model and exploring how this model positively impacted a convenience sample of 140 practitioners and individuals experiencing grief and loss. Respondents participated in Webinars provided by the National Grief and Loss Center of America (NGLCA). Participants in this cross-sectional research design study completed one of three Grief and Loss Surveys created by the Grief and Loss Centers of America. Data analysis for this study was conducted via SPSS and Survey Hero to examine survey results for respondents. Results indicate that the Energy Model of Cumulative Grief was an effective resource for participants in addressing grief and loss. The majority of participants found the Webinars to be helpful and a conduit to providing them with higher levels of hope. The findings suggest that using The Energy Model of Cumulative Grief is effective in providing culturally responsive grief and loss resources to practitioners and clients. There are far reaching implications with the use of technology to provide hope to those suffering from grief and loss worldwide through The Energy Model of Cumulative Grief.

Keywords: grief, loss, grief energy, grieving brain

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Authors: Onur Kaya, Ilknur Tukenmez

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In this study, we consider vehicle routing problems on networks with alternative direct links between nodes, and we analyze a multi-objective problem considering the financial, environmental and social objectives in this context. In real life, there might exist several alternative direct roads between two nodes, and these roads might have differences in terms of their lengths and durations. For example, a road might be shorter than another but might require longer time due to traffic and speed limits. Similarly, some toll roads might be shorter or faster but require additional payment, leading to higher costs. We consider such alternative links in our problem and develop a mixed integer linear programming model that determines which alternative link to use between two nodes, in addition to determining the optimal routes for different vehicles, depending on the model objectives and constraints. We consider the minimum cost routing as the financial objective for the company, minimizing the CO2 emissions and gas usage as the environmental objectives, and optimizing the driver working conditions/working hours, and minimizing the risks of accidents as the social objectives. With these objective functions, we aim to determine which routes, and which alternative links should be used in addition to the speed choices on each link. We discuss the results of the developed vehicle routing models and compare their results depending on the system parameters.

Keywords: vehicle routing, alternative links between nodes, mixed integer linear programming, triple bottom line accounting

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Authors: Victoria Masi Haruna Karatu, Nik Kamariah Nikmat

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In recent times awareness about the environment and green purchase has been on the increase across nations due to global warming. Previous researchers have attempted to determine what actually influences the purchase intention of consumers in this environmentally conscious epoch. The consumers too have become conscious of what to buy and who to buy from in their purchasing decisions as this action will reflect their concern about the environment and their personal well-being. This trend is a widespread phenomenon in most developed countries of the world. On the contrary evidence revealed that only 5% of the populations of Nigeria involve in green purchase activities thus making the country lag behind its counterparts in green practices. This is not a surprise as Nigeria is facing problems of inadequate green knowledge, non-enforcement of environmental regulations, sensitivity to the price of green products when compared with the conventional ones and distrust towards green products which has been deduced from prior studies of other regions. The main objectives of this study is to examine the direct antecedents of green purchase intention (green availability, government regulations, perceived green knowledge, perceived value and green price sensitivity) in Nigeria and secondly to establish the mediating role of perceived behavioral control on the relationship between these antecedents and green purchase intention. The study adopts quantitative method whereby 700 questionnaires were administered to lecturers in three Nigerian universities. 502 datasets were collected which represents 72 percent response rate. After screening the data only 440 were usable and analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) and bootstrapping. From the findings, three antecedents have significant direct relationships with green purchase intention (perceived green knowledge, perceived behavioral control, and green availability) while two antecedents have positive and significant direct relationship with perceived behavioral control (perceived value and green price sensitivity). On the other hand, PBC does not mediate any of the paths from the predictors to criterion variable. This result is discussed in the Nigerian context.

Keywords: Green Availability, Green Price Sensitivity, Green Purchase Intention, Perceived Green Knowledge, Perceived Value

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Authors: Solaine Hachem, Frédéric Bourquin, Dominique Siegert

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The brutal collapse of bridges is mainly due to scour. Indeed, the soil erosion in the riverbed around a pier modifies the embedding conditions of the structure, reduces its overall stiffness and threatens its stability. Hence, finding an efficient technique that allows early scour detection becomes mandatory. Vibration analysis is an indirect method for scour detection that relies on real-time monitoring of the bridge. It tends to indicate the presence of a scour based on its consequences on the stability of the structure and its dynamic response. Most of the research in this field has focused on the dynamic behavior of a single pile and has examined the depth of the scour. In this paper, a bridge is fully modeled with all piles and spans and the scour is represented by a reduction in the foundation's stiffnesses. This work aims to identify the vibration modes sensitive to the rigidity’s loss in the foundations so that their variations can be considered as a scour indicator: the decrease in soil-structure interaction rigidity leads to a decrease in the natural frequencies’ values. By using the first-order perturbation method, the expression of sensitivity, which depends only on the selected vibration modes, is established to determine the deficiency of foundations stiffnesses. The solutions are obtained by using the singular value decomposition method for the regularization of the inverse problem. The propagation of uncertainties is also calculated to verify the efficiency of the inverse problem method. Numerical simulations describing different scenarios of scour are investigated on a simplified model of a real composite steel-concrete bridge located in France. The results of the modal analysis show that the modes corresponding to in-plane and out-of-plane piers vibrations are sensitive to the loss of foundation stiffness. While the deck bending modes are not affected by this damage.

Keywords: bridge’s piers, inverse problems, modal sensitivity, scour detection, vibration analysis

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Authors: Balimu Mwiya, Mundia Muya, Chabota Kaliba, Peter Mukalula

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Factors affecting construction unit cost vary depending on a country’s political, economic, social and technological inclinations. Factors affecting construction costs have been studied from various perspectives. Analysis of cost factors requires an appreciation of a country’s practices. Identified cost factors provide an indication of a country’s construction economic strata. The purpose of this paper is to identify the essential factors that affect unit cost estimation and their breakdown using artificial neural networks. Twenty-five (25) identified cost factors in road construction were subjected to a questionnaire survey and employing SPSS factor analysis the factors were reduced to eight. The 8 factors were analysed using the neural network (NN) to determine the proportionate breakdown of the cost factors in a given construction unit rate. NN predicted that political environment accounted 44% of the unit rate followed by contractor capacity at 22% and financial delays, project feasibility, overhead and profit each at 11%. Project location, material availability and corruption perception index had minimal impact on the unit cost from the training data provided. Quantified cost factors can be incorporated in unit cost estimation models (UCEM) to produce more accurate estimates. This can create improvements in the cost estimation of infrastructure projects and establish a benchmark standard to assist the process of alignment of work practises and training of new staff, permitting the on-going development of best practises in cost estimation to become more effective.

Keywords: construction cost factors, neural networks, roadworks, Zambian construction industry

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Francisco Pereira, Elton Rossini

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The use of alternative energy sources to meet energy demand reduces environmental damage. To diversify an energy matrix and to minimize global warming, a solar energy is gaining space, being an important source of renewable energy, and its potential depends on the climatic conditions of the region. Brazil presents a great solar potential for a generation of electric energy, so the knowledge of solar radiation and its characteristics are fundamental for the study of energy use. Due to the above reasons, this article aims to verify the climatic variability corresponding to the variations in solar radiation anomalies, in the face of climate change scenarios. The data used in this research are part of the Intercomparison of Interconnected Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which contributed to the preparation of the fifth IPCC-AR5 report. The solar radiation data were extracted from The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) model using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios that represent an intermediate structure and a pessimistic framework, the latter being the most worrisome in all cases. In order to allow the use of solar radiation as a source of energy in a given location and/or region, it is important, first, to determine its availability, thus justifying the importance of the study. The results pointed out, for the 75-year period (2026-2100), based on a pessimistic scenario, indicate a drop in solar radiation of the approximately 12% in the eastern region of Rio Grande do Sul. Factors that influence the pessimistic prospects of this scenario should be better observed by the responsible authorities, since they can affect the possibility to produce electricity from solar radiation.

Keywords: climate change, energy, IPCC, solar radiation

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Authors: Masoud Mahdavi

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During an earthquake, the structure is subjected to seismic loads that cause tension in the members of the building. The use of energy dissipation elements in the structure reduces the percentage of seismic forces on the main members of the building (especially the columns). Steel plate shear wall, as one of the most widely used types of energy dissipation element, has evolved today, and regular drilling of its inner plate is one of the common cases. In the present study, using a finite element method, the shear wall of the steel plate is designed as a floor (with dimensions of 447 × 6/246 cm) with Abacus software and in three different modes on which a cyclic load has been applied. The steel shear wall has a horizontal element (beam) with a reduced beam section (RBS). The hole in the interior plate of the models is created in such a way that it has the process of increasing the area, which makes the effect of increasing the surface area of the hole on the seismic performance of the steel shear wall completely clear. In the end, it was found that with increasing the opening level in the steel shear wall (with reduced cross-section beam), total displacement and plastic strain indicators increased, structural capacity and total energy indicators decreased and the Mises Monson stress index did not change much.

Keywords: steel plate shear wall with opening, cyclic loading, reduced cross-section beam, finite element method, Abaqus software

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Authors: Hamidreza Khodaei, Ali Daryabeigi Zand

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Ovulation is a physiologic process with an inflammatory response that depends on a coordinated activity of gonadotropins and steroid hormones, and inflammatory mediators such as cytokines, prostaglandins, leptin, nitric oxide (NO), etc. Conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) is composed of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) found in dairy products, beef, and lamb. There is strong evidence that dietary CLA affects mediators involved in ovulation. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impacts of various doses of dietary CLA on systemic and local hormones and parameters involved in ovulation. In this case-control research, 80 (50 ± 2-day old) female mice were randomly divided into 4 groups (C as control treatment and T1, T2 and T3 are considered as the treatment groups). There were four replicates in each group, and there were five mice in every replicate (20 mice, in total). The mice in the control group were fed with no CLA in their diet, but the ones in the treatment group received 0.1, 0.3 and 0.5g/kg of CLA (replacing corn oil in the diet), respectively for four months. After that, blood samples were obtained from the tails of animals that displayed estrus signs and estradiol (E2), progesterone (P4), LH, FSH, NO, leptin and TNFα were measured. In addition, the impacts of CLA on the ovarian production of prostaglandins (PGs) and NO were studied. The data were analyzed by SAS software. CLA considerably decreased serum levels of FSH (p < 0.05), LH, estradiol, NO, leptin and TNFα (p < 0.01). In addition, CLA decreased progesterone levels, but this effect was statistically not significant. The significantly adverse effects of CLA were observed in the ovarian production of PGE2 and PGF2α (p < 0.01). It seems that CLA may play an important role in reducing the ovulation rate in mice as CLA negatively affected female reproduction and it had adverse effects on systemic and local hormones involved in ovulation.

Keywords: conjugated linoleic acid, nitric oxide, ovary, ovulation, prostaglandin, gonadotropin

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Authors: Xiaofang Wei

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Harmful Algal Blooms are a recurrent disturbing occurrence in Lake Erie that has caused significant negative impacts on water quality and aquatic ecosystem around Great Lakes areas in the United States. Targeting the recent HAB events in western Lake Erie, this paper utilizes satellite imagery and hydrological modeling to monitor HAB cyanobacteria blooms and analyze the impacts of agricultural activities from Maumee watershed, the biggest watershed of Lake Erie and agriculture dominant.SWAT (Soil & Water Assessment Tool) Model for Maumee watershed was established with DEM, land use data, crop data layer, soil data, and weather data, and calibrated with Maumee River gauge stations data for streamflow and nutrients. Fast Line-of-sight Atmospheric Analysis of Hypercubes (FLAASH) was applied to remove atmospheric attenuation and cyanobacteria Indices were calculated from Landsat OLI imagery to study the intensity of HAB events in the years 2015, 2017, and 2019. The agricultural practice and nutrients management within the Maumee watershed was studied and correlated with HAB cyanobacteria indices to study the relationship between HAB intensity and nutrient loadings. This study demonstrates that hydrological models and satellite imagery are effective tools in HAB monitoring and modeling in rivers and lakes.

Keywords: harmful algal bloom, landsat OLI imagery, SWAT, HAB cyanobacteria

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Authors: Baker Ssekitto, Ambrose Mbogo

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The study reveals that indeed agriculture employs over 70% of Uganda’s population, of which majority are youth and women. The study further reveals that over 70% of the farmers are smallholder farmers based in rural areas, whose operations are greatly affected by; climate change, weak digital skills, limited access to productivity knowledge along value chains, limited access to quality farm inputs, weak logistics systems, limited access to quality extension services, weak business intelligence, limited access to quality markets among others. It finds that the emerging 4th industrial revolution powered by artificial intelligence, 5G and data science will provide possibilities of addressing some of these challenges. Furthermore, the study finds that despite rapid development of ICT4Agric Innovation, their uptake is constrained by a number of factors including; limited awareness of these innovations, low internet and smart phone penetration especially in rural areas, lack of appropriate digital skills, inappropriate programmes implementation models which are project and donor driven, limited articulation of value addition to various stakeholders among others. Majority of farmers and other value chain actors lacked knowledge and skills to harness the power of ICTs, especially their application of ICTs in monitoring and evaluation on quality of service in the extension system and farm level processes.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, productivity, ICT4agriculture, value chain, logistics

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Authors: Majid Yazdandoust

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This study, tries to suggest a design method based on displacement using finite difference numerical modeling in reinforcing soil retaining wall with steel strip. In this case, dynamic loading characteristics such as duration, frequency, peak ground acceleration, geometrical characteristics of reinforced soil structure and type of the site are considered to correct the pseudo static method and finally introduce the pseudo static coefficient as a function of seismic performance level and peak ground acceleration. For this purpose, the influence of dynamic loading characteristics, reinforcement length, height of reinforced system and type of the site are investigated on seismic behavior of reinforcing soil retaining wall with steel strip. Numerical results illustrate that the seismic response of this type of wall is highly dependent to cumulative absolute velocity, maximum acceleration, and height and reinforcement length so that the reinforcement length can be introduced as the main factor in shape of failure. Considering the loading parameters, mechanically stabilized earth wall parameters and type of the site showed that the used method in this study leads to most efficient designs in comparison with other methods which are generally suggested in cods that are usually based on limit-equilibrium concept. The outputs show the over-estimation of equilibrium design methods in comparison with proposed displacement based methods here.

Keywords: pseudo static coefficient, seismic performance design, numerical modeling, steel strip reinforcement, retaining walls, cumulative absolute velocity, failure shape

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Authors: Lise Retat, Maria Carmen Huerta, Laura Webber, Franco Sassi

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Background: Intra-generational social mobility (ISM) can be defined as the extent to which individuals change their socio-economic position over a period of time or during their entire life course. The relationship between poor health and ISM is established. Therefore, quantifying the impact that potential health policies have on ISM now and into the future would provide evidence for how social inequality could be reduced. This paper takes the condition of overweight and obesity as an example and estimates the mean earning change per individual if the UK were to introduce policies to effectively reduce overweight and obesity. Methods: The HealthLumen individual-based model was used to estimate the impact of obesity on social mobility measures, such as earnings, occupation, and wealth. The HL tool models each individual's probability of experiencing downward ISM as a result of their overweight and obesity status. For example, one outcome of interest was the cumulative mean earning per person of implementing a policy which would reduce adult overweight and obesity by 1% each year between 2020 and 2030 in the UK. Results: Preliminary analysis showed that by reducing adult overweight and obesity by 1% each year between 2020 and 2030, the cumulative additional mean earnings would be ~1,000 Euro per adult by 2030. Additional analysis will include other social mobility indicators. Conclusions: These projections are important for illustrating the role of health in social mobility and for providing evidence for how health policy can make a difference to social mobility outcomes and, in turn, help to reduce inequality.

Keywords: modelling, social mobility, obesity, health

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Authors: Mohammad Aminnia, Mahmood Hosseini

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Environmental and functional conditions sometimes necessitate the architectural plan of the building to be asymmetric, and this result in an asymmetric structure. In such cases, finding an optimal pattern for locating the components of the lateral load bearing system, including shear walls, in the building’s plan is desired. In case of shear walls, in addition to the location, the shape of the wall cross-section is also an effective factor. Various types of shear wall and their proper layout might come effective in better stiffness distribution and more appropriate seismic response of the building. Several studies have been conducted in the context of analysis and design of shear walls; however, few studies have been performed on making decisions for the location and form of shear walls in multi-story buildings, especially those with irregular plan. In this study, an attempt has been made to obtain the most reliable seismic behavior of multi-story reinforced concrete vertically chamfered buildings by using more appropriate shear walls form and arrangement in 7-, 10-, 12-, and 15-story buildings. The considered forms and arrangements include common rectangular walls and L-, T-, U- and Z-shaped plan, located as the core or in the outer frames of the building structure. Comparison of seismic behaviors of the buildings, including maximum roof displacement, and particularly the formation of plastic hinges and their distribution in the buildings’ structures, have been done based on the results of a series of nonlinear time history analyses by using a set of selected earthquake records. Results show that shear walls with U-shaped cross-section, placed as the building central core, and also walls with Z-shaped cross-section, placed at the corners give the building more reliable seismic behavior.

Keywords: vertically chamfered buildings, non-linear time history analyses, l-, t-, u- and z-shaped plan walls

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Authors: Saba Atefyekta

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Aim: Control of bacterial bioburden in wounds is an important step for minimizing the risk of wound infection. An antimicrobial hydrogel wound dressing is developed out of soft polymeric hydrogels that contain antimicrobial peptides (AMPs). Such wound dressings can bind and kill all types of bacteria, even the resistance types at the wound site. Methods: AMPs are permanently bonded onto a soft nanostructured polymer via covalent attachment and physical entanglement. This improves stability, rapid antibacterial activity, and, most importantly, prevents the leaching of AMPs. Major Findings: Antimicrobial analysis of antimicrobial hydrogels using in-vitro wound models confirmed >99% killing efficiency against multiple bacterial trains, including MRSA, MDR, E. Coli. Furthermore, the hydrogel retained its antibacterial activity for up to 4 days when exposed to human serum. Tests confirmed no release of AMPs, and it was proven non-toxic to mammalian cells. An in-vivo study on human intact skin showed a significant reduction of bacteria for part of the subject’s skin treated with antibacterial hydrogels. A similar result was detected through a qualitative study in veterinary trials on different types of surgery wounds in cats, dogs, and horses. Conclusions: Antimicrobial hydrogels wound dressings developed by permanent attachment of AMPs can effectively and rapidly kill bacteria in contact. Such antibacterial hydrogel wound dressings are non-toxic and do not release any substances into the wound.

Keywords: antibacterial wound dressing, antimicrobial peptides, post-surgical wounds, infection

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Authors: B. Elshafei, X. Mao

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The demand for renewable energy is significantly increasing, major investments are being supplied to the wind power generation industry as a leading source of clean energy. The wind energy sector is entirely dependable and driven by the prediction of wind speed, which by the nature of wind is very stochastic and widely random. This s0tudy employs deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression, used to predict wind speeds for medium term time horizons. Data of the RUNE experiment in the west coast of Denmark were provided by the Technical University of Denmark, which represent the wind speed across the study area from the period between December 2015 and March 2016. The study aims to investigate the effect of pre-processing the data by denoising the signal using empirical wavelet transform (EWT) and engaging the vector components of wind speed to increase the number of input data layers for data fusion using deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR). The outcomes were compared using root mean square error (RMSE) and the results demonstrated a significant increase in the accuracy of predictions which demonstrated that using vector components of the wind speed as additional predictors exhibits more accurate predictions than strategies that ignore them, reflecting the importance of the inclusion of all sub data and pre-processing signals for wind speed forecasting models.

Keywords: data fusion, Gaussian process regression, signal denoise, temporal extrapolation

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Chi-Jung Chung, Chao-Hsiang Chang, Chiu-Shong Liu, Sheng-Wei Li, Mu-Chi Chung, Ting-Jie Wen, Hui-Ling Lee

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Cigarette smoke contains volatile organic compounds (VOCs), such as acrylamide, 1,3-butadiene, and benzene. This study aimed to explore the associations between the urinary levels of cotinine and VOC metabolites and the risk of urothelial carcinoma (UC). A hospital-based case–control study involving two groups matched on the basis of age ( ± 3 years) and gender was designed. UC was clinically diagnosed through urological examinations and pathologically verified. Smoking-related information was collected through questionnaires and face-to-face interviews with all study participants. Urine samples were collected for the analysis of the urinary levels of VOC metabolites, cotinine, and 8-hydroxydeoxygua- nosine (8-OHdG), which was selected as a proxy of oxidative stress. Multiple logistic regressions were applied to estimate the risk of UC. The urinary cotinine and 8-OHdG levels of the UC group were higher than those of the control group. The urinary levels of VOC metabolites, including N-acetyl-S-(2-carbamoylethyl)-L-cysteine (AAMA), N- acetyl-S-(2-carbamoyl-2-hydroxyethyl)-L-cysteine, N-acetyl-S- (4- hydroxy-2-buten-1-yl)-Lcysteine-3, trans, trans-muconic acid (t,t- MA), and S-phenylmercapturic acid (SPMA) increased as the urinary levels of cotinine increased. Relevant dose-response relationships between the risk of UC risk and the urinary levels of AAMA , t,t-MA, SPMA, and 8-OHdG were found after adjusting for potential risk factors. The UC risk of participants with high urinary levels of cotinine, AAMA, t,t-MA, SPMA, and 8-OHdG were 3.5–6-fold higher than those of other participants. Increased urinary levels of VOC metabolites were associated with smoking-related UC risk. The development of UC should be explored in large-scale in vitro or in vivo studies with the repeated measurement of VOC metabolites.

Keywords: volatile organic compound, urothelial carcinoma, cotinine, 8-hydroxydeoxyguanosine

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Authors: Mehmet Akköse

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Concern about seismic safety of concrete dams have been growing around the world, partly because the population at risk in locations downstream of major dams continues to expand and also because it is increasingly evident that the seismic design concepts in use at the time most existing dams were built were inadequate. Most of the investigations in the past have been conducted on large dams, typically above 100m high. A large number of concrete dams in our country and in other parts of the world are less than 50m high. Most of these dams were usually designed using pseudo-static methods, ignoring the dynamic characteristics of the structure as well as the characteristics of the ground motion. Therefore, it is important to carry out investigations on seismic behavior this category of dam in order to assess and evaluate the safety of existing dams and improve the knowledge for different high dams to be constructed in the future. In this study, size effects on structural performance of concrete gravity dams subjected to near and far-fault ground motions are investigated including dam-water-foundation interaction. For this purpose, a benchmark problem proposed by ICOLD (International Committee on Large Dams) is chosen as a numerical application. Structural performance of the dam having five different heights is evaluated according to damage criterions in USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers). It is decided according to their structural performance if non-linear analysis of the dams requires or not. The linear elastic dynamic analyses of the dams to near and far-fault ground motions are performed using the step-by-step integration technique. The integration time step is 0.0025 sec. The Rayleigh damping constants are calculated assuming 5% damping ratio. The program NONSAP modified for fluid-structure systems with the Lagrangian fluid finite element is employed in the response calculations.

Keywords: concrete gravity dams, Lagrangian approach, near and far-fault ground motion, USACE damage criterions

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Authors: Domenica L. DelPrete

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Viewed as a type of rapport-talk, troubles telling is a common conversational practice among female friends who wish to establish connection, show empathy, or share a disconcerting experience. This study shows how troubles talk between a mother and her adolescent daughter has a different interactional outcome. Specifically, it reveals how discursive interaction with an adolescent daughter becomes increasingly volatile when the mother steps out of the role of nurturer and into the role of troubles teller. Naturally occurring interactions between a mother and her 15-year-old daughter were videotaped in their family home over a two-week period. The data were primarily analyzed from an interactional sociolinguistic perspective, using conversation analytic techniques for transcriptions and discursive analysis. The following questions guided this research: (1) How are troubles telling discursively accomplished in the everyday talk of a mother and her adolescent daughter? and (2) What topic prompts the mother to engage in troubles talk? The data show that the mother engages her daughter in troubles to talk on issues related to body image and physical appearance and does so by (1) repeated questioning, (2) not accepting the daughter’s response as adequate, and (3) proffering self-deprecation. Findings reveal that engaging an adolescent daughter in a conversational practice reserved for female friendship groups creates a negative connection and relational disharmony. Since 'telling one’s troubles' assumes an egalitarian relationship between individuals, mother’s trouble telling creates a peer-like interaction that the adolescent daughter repeatedly resists. This study also proposes a discursive consciousness raising, which hopes to enhance communication between mothers and daughters by revealing the signals that show an adolescent daughter’s unwillingness to participate in troubles talk. Being in tune to these cues may prompt mothers to hesitate before pursuing a topic that will not garner the positive interactional outcome they seek.

Keywords: discursive interaction, maternal roles, mother-daughter interaction, troubles telling

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: Eric Fang, Robert Chen, Ghim Song Chia, Bien Soo Tan

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Objective and Rationale: Training of radiology residents hinges on practical, on-the-job training in all facets and modalities of diagnostic radiology. Although residency is structured to be comprehensive, clinical exposure depends on the case mix available locally and during the posting period. To supplement clinical training, there are several e-learning resources available to allow for greater exposure to radiological cases. The objective of this study was to survey residents and faculty on the usefulness of these e-learning resources. Methods: E-learning resources were shortlisted with input from radiology residents, Google search and online discussion groups, and screened by their purported focus. Twelve e-learning resources were found to meet the criteria. Both radiology residents and experienced radiology faculty were then surveyed electronically. The e-survey asked for ratings on breadth, depth, testing capability and user-friendliness for each resource, as well as for rankings for the top 3 resources. Statistical analysis was performed using SAS 9.4. Results: Seventeen residents and fifteen faculties completed an e-survey. Mean response rate was 54% ± 8% (Range: 14- 96%). Ratings and rankings were statistically identical between residents and faculty. On a 5-point rating scale, breadth was 3.68 ± 0.18, depth was 3.95 ± 0.14, testing capability was 2.64 ± 0.16 and user-friendliness was 3.39 ± 0.13. Top-ranked resources were STATdx (first), Radiopaedia (second) and Radiology Assistant (third). 9% of responders singled out R-ITI as potentially good but ‘prohibitively costly’. Statistically significant predictive factors for higher rankings are familiarity with the resource (p = 0.001) and user-friendliness (p = 0.006). Conclusion: A good e-learning system will complement on-the-job training with a broad case base, deep discussion and quality trainee evaluation. Based on our study on twelve e-learning resources, no single program fulfilled all requirements. The perception and use of radiology e-learning resources depended more on familiarity and user-friendliness than on content differences and testing capability.

Keywords: e-learning, medicine, radiology, survey

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Mursal Ibrahim Zada

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Since 2001, the new Government of Afghanistan has put the improvement of transportation in rural area as one of the key issues for the development of the country. Since then, about 17,000 km of rural roads were planned to be constructed in the entire country. This thesis will assess the impact of rural road improvement on the development of rural communities and housing facilities. Specifically, this study aims to show that the improved road has leads to an improvement in the community, which in turn has a positive effect on the lives of rural people. To obtain this goal, a questionnaire survey was conducted in March 2015 to the residents of four different districts of Kabul province, Afghanistan, where the road projects were constructed in recent years. The collected data was analyzed using on a regression analysis considering different factors such as land price, waiting time at the station, travel time to the city, number of employed family members and so on. Three models are developed to demonstrate the relationship between different factors before and after the improvement of rural transportation. The results showed a significant change positively in the value of land price and housing facilities, travel time to the city, waiting time at the station, number of employed family members, fare per trip to the city, and number of trips to the city per month after the pavement of the road. The results indicated that the improvement of transportation has a significant impact on the improvement of the community in different parts, especially on the price of land and housing facility and travel time to the city.

Keywords: accessibility, Afghanistan, housing facility, rural area, land price

Procedia PDF Downloads 257

Authors: Daniela V. Bavaresco, Tamy Colonetti, Antonio Jose Grande, Francesc Colom, Joao Quevedo, Samira S. Valvassori, Maria Ines da Rosa

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Objective: Performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluated the potential effect of the cyclo-oxygenases (Cox)-2 inhibitor Celecoxib adjunct treatment in Bipolar Disorder (BD), through of randomized controlled trials. Method: A search of the electronic databases was proceeded, on MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Biomed Central, Web of Science, IBECS, LILACS, PsycINFO (American Psychological Association), Congress Abstracts, and Grey literature (Google Scholar and the British Library) for studies published from January 1990 to February 2018. A search strategy was developed using the terms: 'Bipolar disorder' or 'Bipolar mania' or 'Bipolar depression' or 'Bipolar mixed' or 'Bipolar euthymic' and 'Celecoxib' or 'Cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors' or 'Cox-2 inhibitors' as text words and Medical Subject Headings (i.e., MeSH and EMTREE) and searched. The therapeutic effects of adjunctive treatment with Celecoxib were analyzed, it was possible to carry out a meta-analysis of three studies included in the systematic review. The meta-analysis was performed including the final results of the Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS) at the end of randomized controlled trials (RCT). Results: Three primary studies were included in the systematic review, with a total of 121 patients. The meta-analysis had significant effect in the YMRS scores from patients with BD who used Celecoxib adjuvant treatment in comparison to placebo. The weighted mean difference was 5.54 (95%CI=3.26-7.82); p < 0.001; I2 =0%). Conclusion: The systematic review suggests that adjuvant treatment with Celecoxib improves the response of major treatments in patients with BD when compared with adjuvant placebo treatment.

Keywords: bipolar disorder, Cox-2 inhibitors, Celecoxib, systematic review, meta-analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 484

Authors: E. A. Krasikov

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Dependence of the materials properties on neutron irradiation intensity (flux) is a key problem while usage data of the accelerated materials irradiation in test reactors for forecasting of their capacity for work in realistic (practical) circumstances of operation. Investigations of the reactor pressure vessel steel radiation degradation dependence on fast neutron fluence (embrittlement kinetics) at low flux reveal the instability in the form of the scatter of the experimental data and wave-like sections of embrittlement kinetics appearance. Disclosure of the steel degradation oscillating is a sign of the steel structure cyclic self-recovery transformation as it take place in self-organization processes. This assumption has received support through the discovery of the similar ‘anomalous’ data in scientific publications and by means of own additional experiments. Data obtained stimulate looking-for ways to management of the structural steel radiation stability (for example, by means of nano - structure modification for radiation defects annihilation intensification) for creation of the intelligent self-recovering material. Expected results: - radiation degradation theory and mechanisms development, - more adequate models of the radiation embrittlement elaboration, - surveillance specimen programs improvement, - methods and facility development for usage data of the accelerated materials irradiation for forecasting of their capacity for work in realistic (practical) circumstances of operation, - search of the ways for creating of the radiation stable self-recovery intelligent materials.

Keywords: degradation, radiation, steel, wave-like kinetics

Procedia PDF Downloads 296