Search results for: resource/cost/risk sharing

Authors: Adeela Abu Bakar, Minder Kaur, Parthaman Singh

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In the Malaysian education system, a formal setting of English language learning takes place in a content-based classroom (CBC). Until recently, there is less study in Malaysia, which researched the effects of code-switching (CS) behaviour towards the students’ knowledge sharing (KS) with their peers. The aim of this study is to investigate the frequency, reasons, and effect that CS, from the English language to Bahasa Melayu, has among local STEM and N-STEM undergraduates towards KS in a content-based classroom. The study implies a mixed-method research design with questionnaire and interviews as the instruments. The data is collected through distribution of questionnaires and interviews with the undergraduates. The quantitative data is analysed using SPSS in simple frequencies and percentages, whereas qualitative data involves organizing the data into themes, followed by analysis. Findings found that N-STEM undergraduates code-switch more as compared to STEM undergraduates. In addition to that, both the STEM and N-STEM undergraduates agree that CS acts as a catalyst towards KS in a content-based classroom. However, they also acknowledge that excess use of CS can be a hindrance towards KS. The findings of the study can benefit STEM and N-STEM undergraduates, education policymakers, language teachers, university educators, and students with significant insights into the role of CS towards KS in a content-based classroom. Some of the recommendations that can be applied for future studies are that the number of participants can be increased, an observation to be included for the data collection.

Keywords: switching, content-based classroom, content and language integrated learning, knowledge sharing, STEM and N-STEM undergraduates

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Authors: Shamm Kidane, Ibrahim Abdella, Fitsum Gaim, Simon Mulugeta, Sirak Asmerom, Natnael Ambasager, Yoel Ghebrihiwot

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The call for natural language processing (NLP) systems for low-resource languages has become more apparent than ever in the past few years, with the arduous challenges still present in preparing such systems. This paper presents an improved dataset version of the Nagaoka Tigrinya Corpus for Parts-of-Speech (POS) classification system in the Tigrinya language. The size of the initial Nagaoka dataset was incremented, totaling the new tagged corpus to 118K tokens, which comprised the 12 basic POS annotations used previously. The additional content was also annotated manually in a stringent manner, followed similar rules to the former dataset and was formatted in CONLL format. The system made use of the novel approach in NLP tasks and use of the monolingually pre-trained TiELECTRA, TiBERT and TiRoBERTa transformer models. The highest achieved score is an impressive weighted F1-score of 94.2%, which surpassed the previous systems by a significant measure. The system will prove useful in the progress of NLP-related tasks for Tigrinya and similarly related low-resource languages with room for cross-referencing higher-resource languages.

Keywords: Tigrinya POS corpus, TiBERT, TiRoBERTa, conditional random fields

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Authors: Fehmi Bouguezzi

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This paper studies optimal licensing regimes in a linear Hotelling model where firms are located at the end points of the city and where the transportation cost is not linear but quadratic. We study for that a more general cost function and we try to compare the findings with the results of the linear cost. We find the same optimal licensing regimes. A per unit royalty is optimal when innovation is not drastic and no licensing is better when innovation is drastic. We also find that no licensing is always better than fixed fee licensing.

Keywords: Hotelling model, technology transfer, patent licensing, quadratic transportation cost

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: Mihai Liviu Despa

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The paper tackles the topic of determining the cost of innovation in software development projects. Innovation can be achieved either in a planned or unplanned manner. The paper approaches the scenarios were innovation is planned for. As a starting point an innovative software development project is analyzed. The project is depicted step by step as it was implemented, from inception to delivery. Costs that are proprietary to innovation in software development are isolated based on the author’s personal experience in managing the above mentioned project. Innovation costs components identified by the author are then validated using open discussions with software development professionals and projects managers on LinkedIn groups. In order to receive relevant feedback only groups that focus on software development and innovation management are targeted. Additional innovation cost components suggested by software development professionals and projects managers are also considered. Based on the identified cost components an indicator is built. The indicator is meant to formalize the process of determining the cost of innovation in a software development project. The indicator aggregates all the innovation cost components that are identified in the research process. The process of calculating each cost component is also described. Conclusions are formulated and new related research topics are submitted for debate.

Keywords: innovation cost, IT project management, software development, innovation management

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Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

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This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), risk factors

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Authors: Jorge M. Uribe

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We propose a methodology for setting the price of an insurance contract targeted to manage the risk associated with weather conditions that affect variable renewable energy generation. The methodology relies on conditional quantile regressions to estimate the weather risk of a solar panel. It is illustrated using real daily radiation and weather data for three cities in Spain (Valencia, Barcelona and Madrid) from February 2/2004 to January 22/2019. We also adapt the concepts of value at risk and expected short fall from finance to this context, to provide a complete panorama of what we label as weather risk. The methodology is easy to implement and can be used by insurance companies to price a contract with the aforementioned characteristics when data about similar projects and accurate cash flow projections are lacking. Our methodology assigns a higher price to an insurance product with the stated characteristics in Madrid, compared to Valencia and Barcelona. This is consistent with Madrid showing the largest interquartile range of operational deficits and it is unrelated to the average value deficit, which illustrates the importance of our proposal.

Keywords: insurance, weather, vre, risk

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Authors: Zoe Lynch, Kirsty Zieschank

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There are several factors that compromise the utility and wide-spread use of existing emotional and behavioural distress screening instruments. Some of these factors include lengthy administration times, high costs, feasibility issues, and a lack of self-report options for children under 12 years of age. This animation-based resource was developed to overcome as many of these factors as possible. Developed for educators and medical and mental health professionals, this resource offers children a self-guided mechanism for reporting any current emotional and behavioural distress. An avatar assistant, selected by the child, accompanies them through each stage of the screening process, offering further instruction if prompted. Children enter their age and gender before viewing comparative animations conveying common childhood emotional and behavioural difficulties. The child then selects the most relatable animations, along with the frequency with which they experience the depicted emotions. From a perspective of intellectual development, an engaging, animated format means that outcomes will not be constrained by children’s reading, writing, cognitive, or verbal expression abilities. Having been user-tested with children aged 6 to 12, this resource shows promising results as a self-guided screening instrument.

Keywords: animation-based screening instrument, mental health, primary-aged children, self-guided

Procedia PDF Downloads 158

Authors: Angela Meyer

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The operation and maintenance cost for wind parks make up a major fraction of the park’s overall lifetime cost. To minimize the cost and risk involved, an optimal operation and maintenance strategy requires continuous monitoring and analysis. In order to facilitate this, we present a decision support system that automatically scans the stream of telemetry sensor data generated from the turbines. By learning decision boundaries and normal reference operating states using machine learning algorithms, the decision support system can detect anomalous operating behavior in individual wind turbines and diagnose the involved turbine sub-systems. Operating personal can be alerted if a normal operating state boundary is exceeded. The presented decision support system and method are applicable for any turbine type and manufacturer providing telemetry data of the turbine operating state. We demonstrate the successful detection and diagnosis of anomalous operating states in a case study at a German onshore wind park comprised of Vestas V112 turbines.

Keywords: anomaly detection, decision support, machine learning, monitoring, performance optimization, wind turbines

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Authors: Abderrazek Ben Maatoug, Ibrahim Fatnassi, Wassim Ben Ayed

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In this paper we investigate the issue of market risk quantification for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Islamic market equity. We use Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of potential risk in Islamic stock market, for long and short position, based on Riskmetrics model and the conditional parametric ARCH class model volatility with normal, student and skewed student distribution. The sample consist of daily data for the 2006-2014 of 11 Islamic stock markets indices. We conduct Kupiec and Engle and Manganelli tests to evaluate the performance for each model. The main finding of our empirical results show that (i) the superior performance of VaR models based on the Student and skewed Student distribution, for the significance level of α=1% , for all Islamic stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions (ii) Risk Metrics model, and VaR model based on conditional volatility with normal distribution provides the best accurate VaR estimations for both long and short trading positions for a significance level of α=5%.

Keywords: value-at-risk, risk management, islamic finance, GARCH models

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Authors: Seung Hun Lee, Sang Yeoup Lee

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Objectives: To investigate associations between degrees of obesity using correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors. Methods: BMI, waist circumference (WC), fasting insulin, fasting glucose, lipids, and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) area using computed tomographic images were measured in 113 obese female without cardiovascular disease (CVD). Correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors were analyzed in obese subgroups defined using sequential obesity indices. Results: Mean BMI and WC were 29.6 kg/m2 and 92.8 cm. BMI showed significant correlations with all five cardiometabolic risk factors until the BMI cut-off point reached 27 kg/m2, but when it exceeded 30 kg/m2, correlations no longer existed. WC was significantly correlated with all five cardiometabolic risk factors up to a value of 85 cm, but when WC exceeded 90 cm, correlations no longer existed. Conclusions: Our data suggest that moderate weight-loss goals may not be enough to ameliorate cardiometabolic markers in severely obese patients. Therefore, individualized weight-loss goals should be recommended to such patients to improve health benefits.

Keywords: correlation, cardiovascular disease, risk factors, obesity

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Authors: Shervin Alaei, Reza Moradi

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Trading in financial markets is subject to risks due to their high volatilities. Here, using an LSTM neural network, and by doing some risk-based feature engineering tasks, we developed a method that can accurately predict trends of the Tehran stock exchange market index from a few days ago. Our test results have shown that the proposed method with an average prediction accuracy of more than 94% is superior to the other common machine learning algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work incorporating deep learning and risk factors to accurately predict market trends.

Keywords: deep learning, LSTM, trend prediction, risk management, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Bassma A. Abdel Haleem, Ehab K. Emam, George E. Yacoub, Ashraf M. Salem

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Background: Obesity is an increasingly common problem in childhood. Childhood obesity is considered the main risk factor for the development of metabolic syndrome (MetS) (diabetes type 2, dyslipidemia, and hypertension). Recent studies estimated that among children with obesity 30-60% will develop MetS. Visceral fat thickness is a valuable predictor of the development of MetS. Computed tomography and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry are the main techniques to assess visceral fat. However, they carry the risk of radiation exposure and are expensive procedures. Consequently, they are seldom used in the assessment of visceral fat in children. Some studies explored the potential of ultrasound as a substitute to assess visceral fat in the elderly and found promising results. Given the vulnerability of children to radiation exposure, we sought to evaluate ultrasound as a safer and more cost-efficient alternative for measuring visceral fat in obese children. Additionally, we assessed the correlation between visceral fat and obesity indicators such as insulin resistance. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 46 children with obesity (aged 6–16 years). Their visceral fat was evaluated by ultrasound. Subcutaneous fat thickness (SFT), i.e., the measurement from the skin-fat interface to the linea alba, and visceral fat thickness (VFT), i.e., the thickness from the linea alba to the aorta, were measured and correlated with anthropometric measures, fasting lipid profile, homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and liver enzymes (ALT). Results: VFT assessed via ultrasound was found to strongly correlate with the BMI, HOMA-IR with AUC for VFT as a predictor of insulin resistance of 0.858 and cut off point of >2.98. VFT also correlates positively with serum triglycerides and serum ALT. VFT correlates negatively with HDL. Conclusions: Ultrasound, a safe and cost-efficient technique, could be a useful tool for measuring the abdominal fat thickness in children with obesity. Ultrasound-measured VFT could be an appropriate prognostic factor for insulin resistance, hypertriglyceridemia, and elevated liver enzymes in obese children.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, pediatric obesity, sonography, visceral fat

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Authors: Sahar Tabarroki, Ahad Nazari

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The design process is one of the most key project processes in the construction industry. Although architects have the responsibility to produce complete, accurate, and coordinated documents, architectural design is accompanied by many errors. A design error occurs when the constraints and requirements of the design are not satisfied. Errors are potentially costly and time-consuming to correct if not caught early during the design phase, and they become expensive in either construction documents or in the construction phase. The aim of this research is to identify the risk factors of architectural design errors, so identification of risks is necessary. First, a literature review in the design process was conducted and then a questionnaire was designed to identify the risks and risk factors. The questions in the form of the questionnaire were based on the “similar service description of study and supervision of architectural works” published by “Vice Presidency of Strategic Planning & Supervision of I.R. Iran” as the base of architects’ tasks. Second, the top 10 risks of architectural activities were identified. To determine the positions of possible causes of risks with respect to architectural activities, these activities were located in a design process modeled by the IDEF0 technique. The research was carried out by choosing a case study, checking the design drawings, interviewing its architect and client, and providing a checklist in order to identify the concrete examples of architectural design errors. The results revealed that activities such as “defining the current and future requirements of the project”, “studies and space planning,” and “time and cost estimation of suggested solution” has a higher error risk than others. Moreover, the most important causes include “unclear goals of a client”, “time force by a client”, and “lack of knowledge of architects about the requirements of end-users”. For error detecting in the case study, lack of criteria, standards and design criteria, and lack of coordination among them, was a barrier, anyway, “lack of coordination between architectural design and electrical and mechanical facility”, “violation of the standard dimensions and sizes in space designing”, “design omissions” were identified as the most important design errors.

Keywords: architectural design, design error, risk management, risk factor

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Authors: Pubudu K. Hitigala Kaluarachchilage, Champike Attanayake, Sasith Rajasooriya, Chris P. Tsokos

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Operating system (OS) security is a key component of computer security. Assessing and improving OSs strength to resist against vulnerabilities and attacks is a mandatory requirement given the rate of new vulnerabilities discovered and attacks occurring. Frequency and the number of different kinds of vulnerabilities found in an OS can be considered an index of its information security level. In the present study five mostly used OSs, Microsoft Windows (windows 7, windows 8 and windows 10), Apple’s Mac and Linux are assessed for their discovered vulnerabilities and the risk associated with each. Each discovered and reported vulnerability has an exploitability score assigned in CVSS score of the national vulnerability database. In this study the risk from vulnerabilities in each of the five Operating Systems is compared. Risk Indexes used are developed based on the Markov model to evaluate the risk of each vulnerability. Statistical methodology and underlying mathematical approach is described. Initially, parametric procedures are conducted and measured. There were, however, violations of some statistical assumptions observed. Therefore the need for non-parametric approaches was recognized. 6838 vulnerabilities recorded were considered in the analysis. According to the risk associated with all the vulnerabilities considered, it was found that there is a statistically significant difference among average risk levels for some operating systems, indicating that according to our method some operating systems have been more risk vulnerable than others given the assumptions and limitations. Relevant test results revealing a statistically significant difference in the Risk levels of different OSs are presented.

Keywords: cybersecurity, Markov chain, non-parametric analysis, vulnerability, operating system

Procedia PDF Downloads 183

Authors: Husam Kaid, Abdulrahman Al-Ahmari, Zhiwu Li

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This paper develops a robust deadlock control technique for shared and unreliable resources in automated manufacturing systems (AMSs) based on structural analysis and colored Petri nets, which consists of three steps. The first step involves using strict minimal siphon control to create a live (deadlock-free) system that does not consider resource failure. The second step uses an approach based on colored Petri net, in which all monitors designed in the first step are merged into a single monitor. The third step addresses the deadlock control problems caused by resource failures. For all resource failures in the Petri net model a common recovery subnet based on colored petri net is proposed. The common recovery subnet is added to the obtained system at the second step to make the system reliable. The proposed approach is evaluated using an AMS from the literature. The results show that the proposed approach can be applied to an unreliable complex Petri net model, has a simpler structure and less computational complexity, and can obtain one common recovery subnet to model all resource failures.

Keywords: automated manufacturing system, colored Petri net, deadlocks, siphon

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Authors: Kitti Leangkrua

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This paper presents a risk-based maintenance strategy of a power transformer in order to optimize operating and maintenance costs. The methodology involves the study and preparation of a database for the collection the technical data and test data of a power transformer. An evaluation of the overall condition of each transformer is performed by a program developed as a result of the measured results; in addition, the calculation of the main equipment separation to the overall condition of the transformer (% HI) and the criteria for evaluating the importance (% ImI) of each location where the transformer is installed. The condition assessment is performed by analysis test data such as electrical test, insulating oil test and visual inspection. The condition of the power transformer will be classified from very poor to very good condition. The importance is evaluated from load criticality, importance of load and failure consequence. The risk matrix is developed for evaluating the risk of each power transformer. The high risk power transformer will be focused firstly. The computerized program is developed for practical use, and the maintenance strategy of a power transformer can be effectively managed.

Keywords: asset management, risk-based maintenance, power transformer, health index

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Authors: Wen Chiat Lee, K. Kuperan Viswanathan

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Illegal, Unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing brings great losses to the economies of the fishing nations. Understanding the reasons contributing to IUU fishing is crucial in reducing it. Economic, institutional and social factors are key drivers of IIU fishing. The economic factor is the main contributor to IUU fishing. The two possible ways to curb the IUU fishing is highlighted. One way is to reduce the revenue from IUU fishing and another way is to increase the cost of IUU fishing. There are three costs of IUU fishing that can be increased namely the operating, capital and risk costs. Approaches for reducing the economic rent or profit from IUU fishing are developed and directions for reducing IUU fishing are also suggested. Improved registration of fishing vessels, preventing entry of illegal fish products and most importantly, developing co-management of fisheries are the ways forward for reducing IUU fishing. All governments in ASEAN must work in tandem with the stakeholders involved such as fishers, fishermen agencies or associations to exchange information for reducing the transaction cost of IUU fishing.

Keywords: Illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing, co-management, fisheries management, economic rent framework

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Authors: Abdulaziz Abdulrahman Albahar

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This paper aims to answer the question of: is oil as a natural resource with all the wealth that it brings an economic burden? And how can resource curse be mitigated in such oil dependent nations? The case of Kuwait will be used as an example. The paper begins with an introduction of the resource curse and the Kuwaiti economy in general. Then there is an attempt to see that does the curse exist in the case for Kuwait. Furthermore, in the analysis section, an exploration on how the economy is dependent on oil and how oil is more of a burden if there is mismanagement is conducted. Later on, in answering on how to mitigate the problem of a resource curse, the case of Norway is explored. In concluding the paper, the results do show that oil rentals affects the Kuwaiti economy via 2 main channels, these are government spending that are mainly financed via oil rentals and exportation of oil based products. The surprising result was that government spending had a negative impact on GDP (gross domestic product) growth when oil rentals where instrumented on government expenditure, this is due to the issue of rent seeking in which government spending in Kuwait is financing things such as stimulus packages and raising the nominal wages. Yet, when comparing the magnitude of both oil exportation and government spending, the latter has a stronger effect on the GDP (gross domestic product) growth than the former. A resource curse doesn’t seem to exist in the case of Kuwait however, the characteristics of a curse do show in the form of rent seeking in the political sphere, the disruption of the traditional sectors like that of pearl trade and fishing markets. Yet, a curse doesn’t show due to the fact that the currency of the nation is very stable and hasn’t experienced any appreciation because of the fixed exchange rate system. Moreover, even if we can’t say that a curse exists, it is clear to see that the Kuwaiti economy is heading towards one. Whether or not it faces a resource curse will be based on how judicious the nation will be in exploiting their sovereign wealth fund and implementing diversification strategies to be less oil dependent like the vision “New Kuwait-2035” which has been underway since 2017.

Keywords: economic development, Kuwait, oil curse, dutch disease

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Authors: Marc S. Paolella, Pawel Polak

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The paper proposes a framework for large-scale portfolio optimization which accounts for all the major stylized facts of multivariate financial returns, including volatility clustering, dynamics in the dependency structure, asymmetry, heavy tails, and non-ellipticity. It introduces a so-called risk fear portfolio strategy which combines portfolio optimization with active risk monitoring. The former selects optimal portfolio weights. The latter, independently, initiates market exit in case of excessive risks. The strategy agrees with the stylized fact of stock market major sell-offs during the initial stage of market downturns. The advantages of the new framework are illustrated with an extensive empirical study. It leads to superior multivariate density and Value-at-Risk forecasting, and better portfolio performance. The proposed risk fear portfolio strategy outperforms various competing types of optimal portfolios, even in the presence of conservative transaction costs and frequent rebalancing. The risk monitoring of the optimal portfolio can serve as an early warning system against large market risks. In particular, the new strategy avoids all the losses during the 2008 financial crisis, and it profits from the subsequent market recovery.

Keywords: comfort, financial crises, portfolio optimization, risk monitoring

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Authors: Kathy Mwende Kiema, Remember Samu, Murat Fahrioglu

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The potential of power generation from solar resources has been established as being robust in sub Saharan Africa. Consequently many governments in the region have encouraged the exploitation of this resource through, inter alia direct funding, subsidies and legislation (such as feed in tariffs). Through a case study of Kenya and Zimbabwe it is illustrated that a good deal of proposed grid connected solar power projects and related feed in tariffs have failed to take into account key economic and technical considerations in the selection of solar technologies to be implemented. This paper therefore presents a comparison between concentrated solar power (CSP) and solar photovoltaic (PV) to assess which technology is better suited to meet the energy demand for a given set of prevailing conditions. The evaluation criteria employed is levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), net present value (NPV) and plant capacity factor. The outcome is therefore a guide to aid policy makers and project developers in choosing between CSP and PV given certain solar irradiance values, planned nominal plant capacity, availability of water resource and a consideration of whether or not the power plant is intended to compete with existing technologies, primarily fossil fuel powered, in meeting the peak load.load.

Keywords: capacity factor, peak load, solar PV, solar CSP

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Authors: Wlodzimierz Ogryczak, Michal Przyluski, Tomasz Sliwinski

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In problems of portfolio selection, the reward-risk ratio criterion is optimized to search for a risky portfolio with the maximum increase of the mean return in proportion to the risk measure increase when compared to the risk-free investments. In the classical model, following Markowitz, the risk is measured by the variance thus representing the Sharpe ratio optimization and leading to the quadratic optimization problems. Several Linear Programming (LP) computable risk measures have been introduced and applied in portfolio optimization. In particular, the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) measure has been widely recognized. The reward-risk ratio optimization with the MAD measure can be transformed into the LP formulation with the number of constraints proportional to the number of scenarios and the number of variables proportional to the total of the number of scenarios and the number of instruments. This may lead to the LP models with huge number of variables and constraints in the case of real-life financial decisions based on several thousands scenarios, thus decreasing their computational efficiency and making them hardly solvable by general LP tools. We show that the computational efficiency can be then dramatically improved by an alternative model based on the inverse risk-reward ratio minimization and by taking advantages of the LP duality. In the introduced LP model the number of structural constraints is proportional to the number of instruments thus not affecting seriously the simplex method efficiency by the number of scenarios and therefore guaranteeing easy solvability. Moreover, we show that under natural restriction on the target value the MAD risk-reward ratio optimization is consistent with the second order stochastic dominance rules.

Keywords: portfolio optimization, reward-risk ratio, mean absolute deviation, linear programming

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Authors: Naser Shagerdi Esmaeli, Mohsen Hamidpour

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Purposes: The activation of coagulation in patients with cancer contributes significantly to morbidity and mortality rates and may play a fundamental role in the host response to growing tumor’s. Patients with cancer are clearly at high risk for the development of venous thromboembolism (VTE), particularly during chemotherapy and surgery. This situation is aggravated by the use of venous access catheters and possibly growth factors. Methods: Data derived from large, randomized, controlled trials have been used to determine the true incidence of this complication of cancer and its treatment. The incidence based on the analyses of these randomized controlled trials varies from 1% for limited stage patients with breast cancer treated with tamoxifen to 60% for patients with any type of cancer who are subjected to orthopedic surgery and do not receive prophylactic therapy. Results: In view of the morbidity and mortality attributable to VTE in cancer, widespread utilization of prophylactic anticoagulation therapy, which has proven safe and effective in a variety of situations, should be considered. While migratory thrombophlebitis is a clear indicator of an underlying neoplasm, the risk of cancer in patients with the more typical form of VTE has been the subject of intense debate over recent years. Conclusion: Some investigators have suggested that the relative risk of being diagnosed with occult cancer within six months of an episode of VTE (particularly recurrent VTE) could be up to 10-fold. However, the cost-effectiveness of aggressive screening for cancer in patients with VTE has not yet been defined adequately.

Keywords: venous thromboembolism, malignancy, cancer, tumor, heparin

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Authors: Ljiljana Seric, Vladimir Divic, Marin Bugaric

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This paper presents methodology for spatial analysis of GIS data that is used for assessing the microlocation risk index from potential damages of high winds. The analysis is performed on freely available GIS data comprising information about wind load, terrain cover and topography of the area. The methodology utilizes the legislation of Eurocode norms for determination of wind load of buildings and constructions. The core of the methodology is adoption of the wind load parameters related to location on geographical spatial grid. Presented work is a part of the Wind Risk Project, supported by the European Commission under the Civil Protection Financial Instrument of the European Union (ECHO). The partners involved in Wind Risk project performed Wind Risk assessment and proposed action plan for three European countries – Slovenia, Croatia and Germany. The proposed method is implemented in GRASS GIS open source GIS software and demonstrated for Case study area of wider area of Split, Croatia. Obtained Wind Risk Index is visualized and correlated with critical infrastructures like buildings, roads and power lines. The results show good correlation between high Wind Risk Index with recent incidents related to wind.

Keywords: Eurocode norms, GIS, spatial analysis, wind distribution, wind risk

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

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In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity

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Authors: Che-Wei Lee, Bay-Erl Lai

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A new steganographic method via the use of numeric data on public websites with self-authentication capability is proposed. The proposed technique transforms a secret message into partial shares by Shamir’s (k, n)-threshold secret sharing scheme with n = k + 1. The generated k+1 partial shares then are embedded into the selected numeric items in a website as if they are part of the website’s numeric content. Afterward, a receiver links to the website and extracts every k shares among the k+1 ones from the stego-numeric-content to compute k+1 copies of the secret, and the phenomenon of value consistency of the computed k+1 copies is taken as an evidence to determine whether the extracted message is authentic or not, attaining the goal of self-authentication of the extracted secret message. Experimental results and discussions are provided to show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: steganography, data hiding, secret authentication, secret sharing

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Authors: Achim Kampker, Heiner H. Heimes, Mathias Ordung, Christoph Lienemann, Ansgar Hollah, Nemanja Sarovic

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Electric cars with their fast innovation cycles and their disruptive character offer a high degree of freedom regarding innovative design for remanufacturing. Remanufacturing increases not only the resource but also the economic efficiency by a prolonged product life time. The reduced power train wear of electric cars combined with high manufacturing costs for batteries allow new business models and even second life applications. Modular and intermountable designed battery packs enable the replacement of defective or outdated battery cells, allow additional cost savings and a prolongation of life time. This paper discusses opportunities for future remanufacturing value chains of electric cars and their battery components and how to address their potentials with elaborate designs. Based on a brief overview of implemented remanufacturing structures in different industries, opportunities of transferability are evaluated. In addition to an analysis of current and upcoming challenges, promising perspectives for a sustainable electric car circular economy enabled by design for remanufacturing are deduced. Two mathematical models describe the feasibility of pursuing a circular economy of lithium ion batteries and evaluate remanufacturing in terms of sustainability and economic efficiency. Taking into consideration not only labor and material cost but also capital costs for equipment and factory facilities to support the remanufacturing process, cost benefit analysis prognosticate that a remanufacturing battery can be produced more cost-efficiently. The ecological benefits were calculated on a broad database from different research projects which focus on the recycling, the second use and the assembly of lithium ion batteries. The results of this calculations show a significant improvement by remanufacturing in all relevant factors especially in the consumption of resources and greenhouse warming potential. Exemplarily suitable design guidelines for future remanufacturing lithium ion batteries, which consider modularity, interfaces and disassembly, are used to illustrate the findings. For one guideline, potential cost improvements were calculated and upcoming challenges are pointed out.

Keywords: circular economy, electric mobility, lithium ion batteries, remanufacturing

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Authors: Sunita Patel

Abstract:

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of morbidity as well as mortality in India. Objective of this study is to examine CVDs prevalence and identify their behavioral and cultural risk factors with the help of SAGE-2007 data conducted on 6th states in India. Findings reveal that 18.3% of people diagnosed with CVDs in India. Higher disease occurs in an increasing rate between ages of 30-39 having OR 2.45 (CI: 1.66-3.63) and 70+ age OR 7.45 (CI: 4.82-11.49) times higher compare to 18-29 age group respectively. Wealth quintile higher CVD occurs as 3rd in 60% (CI: 1.16-2.21) and in richest 5th quintile 58% (CI: 1.13-2.21) contrast to lowest quintile. Relative risk depicted that 22.4% in moderate and 44% in vigorous activity have less chance of diseases compare to who performed no work and those who consumed alcohol. Results reveal that policy prospect should be recommended and that it would be beneficial for awareness of people and their future.

Keywords: behavioral risk, cultural risk, cardio-vascular diseases, wealth quintile

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Authors: George Mariano Soriano

Abstract:

In this study, a Rapid Earthquake Risk Ranking Criteria was formulated by integrating various existing maps and databases by the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) and Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Utilizing Geographic Information System (GIS) software, the above-mentioned maps and databases were used in extracting seismic hazard parameters and bridge vulnerability characteristics in order to rank the seismic damage risk rating of bridges in the National Capital Region.

Keywords: bridge, earthquake, GIS, hazard, risk, vulnerability

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Authors: Parth Shah

Abstract:

The author examines the recent trend where business organizations are significantly reducing their developmental cycle times to stay competitive in today’s global marketspace. The author proposes a rapid systems engineering framework to address late design changes and allow for flexibility (i.e. to react to unexpected or late changes and its impacts) during the product development cycle using a Systems Engineering approach. A System Engineering approach is crucial in today’s product development to deliver complex products into the marketplace. Design changes can occur due to shortened timelines and also based on initial consumer feedback once a product or service is in the marketplace. The ability to react to change and address customer expectations in a responsive and cost-efficient manner is crucial for any organization to succeed. Past literature, research, and methods such as concurrent development, simultaneous engineering, knowledge management, component sharing, rapid product integration, tailored systems engineering processes, and studies on reducing product development cycles all suggest a research gap exist in specifically addressing late design changes due to the shortening of life cycle environments in increasingly competitive markets. The author’s research suggests that 1) product development cycles time scales are now measured in months instead of years, 2) more and more products have interdepended systems and environments that are fast-paced and resource critical, 3) product obsolesce is higher and more organizations are releasing products and services frequently, and 4) increasingly competitive markets are leading to customization based on consumer feedback. The author will quantify effectiveness with respect to success factors such as time-to-market, return-of-investment, life cycle time and flexibility in late design changes by complexity of product or service, number of late changes and ability to react and reduce late design changes.

Keywords: product development, rapid systems engineering, scalability, systems engineering, systems integration, systems life cycle

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Authors: M. A. Badr, M. N. El Kordy, A. N. Mohib, M. M. Ibrahim

Abstract:

The basic objective of the research is to study the effect of hybrid wind energy on the cost of generated electricity considering the cost of reduction CO₂ emissions. The system consists of small wind turbine(s), storage battery bank and a diesel generator (W/D/B). Using an optimization software package, different system configurations are investigated to reach optimum configuration based on the net present cost (NPC) and cost of energy (COE) as economic optimization criteria. The cost of avoided CO₂ is taken into consideration. The system is intended to supply the electrical load of a small community (gathering six families) in a remote Egyptian area. The investigated system is not connected to the electricity grid and may replace an existing conventional diesel powered electric supply system to reduce fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions. The simulation results showed that W/D energy system is more economic than diesel alone. The estimated COE is 0.308$/kWh and extracting the cost of avoided CO₂, the COE reached 0.226 $/kWh which is an external benefit of wind turbine, as there are no pollutant emissions through operational phase.

Keywords: hybrid wind turbine systems, remote areas electrification, simulation of hybrid energy systems, techno-economic study

Procedia PDF Downloads 400