Search results for: neonatal death risk
6428 Public Participation for an Effective Flood Risk Management: Building Social Capacities in Ribera Alta Del Ebro, Spain
Authors: Alba Ballester Ciuró, Marc Pares Franzi
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While coming decades are likely to see a higher flood risk in Europe and greater socio-economic damages, traditional flood risk management has become inefficient. In response to that, new approaches such as capacity building and public participation have recently been incorporated in natural hazards mitigation policy (i.e. Sendai Framework for Action, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and EU Floods Directive). By integrating capacity building and public participation, we present a research concerning the promotion of participatory social capacity building actions for flood risk mitigation at the local level. Social capacities have been defined as the resources and abilities available at individual and collective level that can be used to anticipate, respond to, cope with, recover from and adapt to external stressors. Social capacity building is understood as a process of identifying communities’ social capacities and of applying collaborative strategies to improve them. This paper presents a proposal of systematization of participatory social capacity building process for flood risk mitigation, and its implementation in a high risk of flooding area in the Ebro river basin: Ribera Alta del Ebro. To develop this process, we designed and tested a tool that allows measuring and building five types of social capacities: knowledge, motivation, networks, participation and finance. The tool implementation has allowed us to assess social capacities in the area. Upon the results of the assessment we have developed a co-decision process with stakeholders and flood risk management authorities on which participatory activities could be employed to improve social capacities for flood risk mitigation. Based on the results of this process, and focused on the weaker social capacities, we developed a set of participatory actions in the area oriented to general public and stakeholders: informative sessions on flood risk management plan and flood insurances, interpretative river descents on flood risk management (with journalists, teachers, and general public), interpretative visit to the floodplain, workshop on agricultural insurance, deliberative workshop on project funding, deliberative workshops in schools on flood risk management (playing with a flood risk model). The combination of obtaining data through a mixed-methods approach of qualitative inquiry and quantitative surveys, as well as action research through co-decision processes and pilot participatory activities, show us the significant impact of public participation on social capacity building for flood risk mitigation and contributes to the understanding of which main factors intervene in this process.Keywords: flood risk management, public participation, risk reduction, social capacities, vulnerability assessment
Procedia PDF Downloads 2126427 Assessment-Assisted and Relationship-Based Financial Advising: Using an Empirical Assessment to Understand Personal Investor Risk Tolerance in Professional Advising Relationships
Authors: Jerry Szatko, Edan L. Jorgensen, Stacia Jorgensen
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A crucial component to the success of any financial advising relationship is for the financial professional to understand the perceptions, preferences and thought-processes carried by the financial clients they serve. Armed with this information, financial professionals are more quickly able to understand how they can tailor their approach to best match the individual preferences and needs of each personal investor. Our research explores the use of a quantitative assessment tool in the financial services industry to assist in the identification of the personal investor’s consumer behaviors, especially in terms of financial risk tolerance, as it relates to their financial decision making. Through this process, the Unitifi Consumer Insight Tool (UCIT) was created and refined to capture and categorize personal investor financial behavioral categories and the financial personality tendencies of individuals prior to the initiation of a financial advisement relationship. This paper discusses the use of this tool to place individuals in one of four behavior-based financial risk tolerance categories. Our discoveries and research were aided through administration of a web-based survey to a group of over 1,000 individuals. Our findings indicate that it is possible to use a quantitative assessment tool to assist in predicting the behavioral tendencies of personal consumers when faced with consumer financial risk and decisions.Keywords: behavior-based advising, financial relationship building, risk capacity based on behavior, risk tolerance, systematic way to assist in financial relationship building
Procedia PDF Downloads 1676426 Human Health Risk Assessment from Metals Present in a Soil Contaminated by Crude Oil
Authors: M. A. Stoian, D. M. Cocarta, A. Badea
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The main sources of soil pollution due to petroleum contaminants are industrial processes involve crude oil. Soil polluted with crude oil is toxic for plants, animals, and humans. Human exposure to the contaminated soil occurs through different exposure pathways: Soil ingestion, diet, inhalation, and dermal contact. The present study research is focused on soil contamination with heavy metals as a consequence of soil pollution with petroleum products. Human exposure pathways considered are: Accidentally ingestion of contaminated soil and dermal contact. The purpose of the paper is to identify the human health risk (carcinogenic risk) from soil contaminated with heavy metals. The human exposure and risk were evaluated for five contaminants of concern of the eleven which were identified in soil. Two soil samples were collected from a bioremediation platform from Muntenia Region of Romania. The soil deposited on the bioremediation platform was contaminated through extraction and oil processing. For the research work, two average soil samples from two different plots were analyzed: The first one was slightly contaminated with petroleum products (Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH) in soil was 1420 mg/kgd.w.), while the second one was highly contaminated (TPH in soil was 24306 mg/kgd.w.). In order to evaluate risks posed by heavy metals due soil pollution with petroleum products, five metals known as carcinogenic were investigated: Arsenic (As), Cadmium (Cd), ChromiumVI (CrVI), Nickel (Ni), and Lead (Pb). Results of the chemical analysis performed on samples collected from the contaminated soil evidence soil contamination with heavy metals as following: As in Site 1 = 6.96 mg/kgd.w; As in Site 2 = 11.62 mg/kgd.w, Cd in Site 1 = 0.9 mg/kgd.w; Cd in Site 2 = 1 mg/kgd.w; CrVI was 0.1 mg/kgd.w for both sites; Ni in Site 1 = 37.00 mg/kgd.w; Ni in Site 2 = 42.46 mg/kgd.w; Pb in Site 1 = 34.67 mg/kgd.w; Pb in Site 2 = 120.44 mg/kgd.w. The concentrations for these metals exceed the normal values established in the Romanian regulation, but are smaller than the alert level for a less sensitive use of soil (industrial). Although, the concentrations do not exceed the thresholds, the next step was to assess the human health risk posed by soil contamination with these heavy metals. Results for risk were compared with the acceptable one (10-6, according to World Human Organization). As, expected, the highest risk was identified for the soil with a higher degree of contamination: Individual Risk (IR) was 1.11×10-5 compared with 8.61×10-6.Keywords: carcinogenic risk, heavy metals, human health risk assessment, soil pollution
Procedia PDF Downloads 4226425 The Relationship between Incidental Emotions, Risk Perceptions and Type of Army Service
Authors: Sharon Garyn-Tal, Shoshana Shahrabani
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Military service in general, and in combat units in particular, can be physically and psychologically stressful. Therefore, type of service may have significant implications for soldiers during and after their military service including emotions, judgments and risk perceptions. Previous studies have focused on risk propensity and risky behavior among soldiers, however there is still lack of knowledge on the impact of type of army service on risk perceptions. The current study examines the effect of type of army service (combat versus non-combat service) and negative incidental emotions on risk perceptions. In 2014 a survey was conducted among 153 combat and non-combat Israeli soldiers. The survey was distributed in train stations and central bus stations in various places in Israel among soldiers waiting for the train/bus. Participants answered questions related to the levels of incidental negative emotions they felt, to their risk perceptions (chances to be hurt by terror attack, by violent crime and by car accident), and personal details including type of army service. The data in this research is unique because military service in Israel is compulsory, so that the Israeli population serving in the army is wide and diversified. The results indicate that currently serving combat participants were more pessimistic in their risk perceptions (for all type of risks) compared to the currently serving non-combat participants. Since combat participants probably experienced severe and distressing situations during their service, they became more pessimistic regarding their probabilities of being hurt in different situations in life. This result supports the availability heuristic theory and the findings of previous studies indicating that those who directly experience distressing events tend to overestimate danger. The findings also indicate that soldiers who feel higher levels of incidental fear and anger have pessimistic risk perceptions. In addition, respondents who experienced combat army service also have pessimistic risk perceptions if they feel higher levels of fear. In addition, the findings suggest that higher levels of the incidental emotions of fear and anger are related to more pessimistic risk perceptions. These results can be explained by the compulsory army service in Israel that constitutes a focused threat to soldiers' safety during their period of service. Thus, in this stressful environment, negative incidental emotions even during routine times correlate with higher risk perceptions. In conclusion, the current study results suggest that combat army service shapes risk perceptions and the way young people control their negative incidental emotions in everyday life. Recognizing the factors affecting risk perceptions among soldiers is important for better understanding the impact of army service on young people.Keywords: army service, combat soldiers, incidental emotions, risk perceptions
Procedia PDF Downloads 2356424 Renal Complications in Patients with Falciparum Malaria
Authors: Saira Baloch, Mohsin Ali Baloch
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Background: Malaria is a potentially life-threatening disease and also a major public health problem in Pakistan. Renal failure is an emerging problem correlated with morbidity and mortality, however can be diagnosed and treated in the early stages. Objectives: To elucidate the biochemical renal parameters in patients with falciparum malaria and comparison with healthy control subjects. Method: 80 patients, who were diagnosed to be affected by falciparum malaria. Detailed history, general physical and systemic examination and necessary pathological, biochemical renal laboratory parameters and investigations were done. Results: Among the 80 patients, 43 were males and 37 were females. All patients were infected with P. falciparum. All patients had increased serum creatinine and urea levels and urine output of less than 400 ml/day were categorized as suffering from renal failure. Conclusion: Patients infected with P. falciparum are at an increased risk of developing renal failure when compared to patients infected with other complications. P. vivax has massive potential to cause life threatening complications and even death. Further research is required to understand the exact pathogenesis of various complications encountered in vivax malaria.Keywords: falciparum malaria, renal failure, biochemical parameters, pathogenesis
Procedia PDF Downloads 3906423 Lower Risk of Ischemic Stroke in Hormone Therapy Users with Use of Chinese Herbal Medicine
Authors: Shu-Hui Wen, Wei-Chuan Chang, Hsien-Chang Wu
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Background: Little is known about the benefits and risks of use of Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) in conditions related to hormone therapy (HT) use on the risk of ischemic stroke (IS). The aim of this study is to explore the risk of IS in menopausal women treated with HT and CHM. Materials and methods: A total of 32,441 menopausal women without surgical menopause aged 40- 65 years were selected from 2003 to 2010 using the 2-million random samples of the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan. According to the medication usage of HT and CHM, we divided the current and recent users into two groups: an HT use-only group (n = 4,989) and an HT/CHM group (n = 9,265). Propensity-score matching samples (4,079 pairs) were further created to deal with confounding by indication. The adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of IS during HT or CHM treatment were estimated by the robust Cox proportional hazards model. Results: The incidence rate of IS in the HT/CHM group was significantly lower than in the HT group (4.5 vs. 12.8 per 1000 person-year, p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis results indicated that additional CHM use was significant with a lower risk of IS (HR = 0.3; 95% confidence interval, 0.21-0.43). Further subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses had similar findings. Conclusion: We found that combined use of HT and CHM was associated with a lower risk for IS than HT use only. Further study is needed to examine possible mechanism underlying this association.Keywords: Chinese herbal medicine, hormone therapy, ischemic stroke, menopause
Procedia PDF Downloads 3556422 A Model of Human Security: A Comparison of Vulnerabilities and Timespace
Authors: Anders Troedsson
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For us humans, risks are intimately linked to human vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially insecurity, and risk. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means increasing security and decreasing risk. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risks (including threats, assaults, crisis etc.), is to understand the vulnerabilities these external phenomena evoke in humans. As is argued, the basis of risk evaluation, as well as responses, is the more or less subjective perception by the individual person, or a group of persons, exposed to the external event or phenomena in question. This will be determined primarily by the vulnerability or vulnerabilities that the external factor are perceived to evoke. In this way, risk perception is primarily an inward dynamic, rather than an outward one. Therefore, a route towards an understanding of the perception of risks, is a closer scrutiny of the vulnerabilities which they can evoke, thereby approaching an understanding of what in the paper is called the essence of risk (including threat, assault etc.), or that which a certain perceived risk means to an individual or group of individuals. As a necessary basis for gauging the wide spectrum of potential risks and their meaning, the paper proposes a model of human vulnerabilities, drawing from i.a. a long tradition of needs theory. In order to account for the subjectivity factor, which mediates between the innate vulnerabilities on the one hand, and the event or phenomenon out there on the other hand, an ensuing ontological discussion about the timespace characteristics of risk/threat/assault as perceived by humans leads to the positing of two dimensions. These two dimensions are applied on the vulnerabilities, resulting in a modelling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which are related to each other and together represent a dynamic whole. In approaching the problem of risk perception, the paper thus defines the relevant realms of vulnerabilities, depicting them as a dynamic whole. With reference to a substantial body of literature and a growing international policy trend since the 1990s, this model is put in the language of human security - a concept relevant not only for international security studies and policy, but also for other academic disciplines and spheres of human endeavor.Keywords: human security, timespace, vulnerabilities, risk perception
Procedia PDF Downloads 3396421 Evaluating the Effects of Weather and Climate Change to Risks in Crop Production
Authors: Marcus Bellett-Travers
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Different modelling approaches have been used to determine or predict yield of crops in different geographies. Central to the methodologies are the presumption that it is the absolute yield of the crop in a given location that is of the highest priority to those requiring information on crop productivity. Most individuals, companies and organisations within the agri-food sector need to be able to balance the supply of crops with the demand for them. Different modelling approaches have been used to determine and predict crop yield. The growing need to ensure certainty of supply and stability of prices requires an approach that describes the risk in producing a crop. A review of current methodologies to evaluate the risk to food production from changes in the weather and climate is presented.Keywords: crop production, risk, climate, modelling
Procedia PDF Downloads 3866420 Telling the Truth to Patients Before Hip Fracture Surgery
Authors: Rawan Masarwa, Merav Ben Natan, Yaron Berkovich
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Background: Hip fracture repair surgery carries a certain mortality risk, yet evidence suggests that orthopedic surgeons often refrain from discussing this issue with patients prior to surgery. Aim: This study aims to examine whether orthopedic surgeons address the issue of one-year post-surgery mortality before hip fracture repair surgery and to explore the factors influencing this decision. Method: The study uses a cross-sectional design, administering validated digital questionnaires to 150 orthopedic surgeons. Results: A minority of orthopedic surgeons reported consistently informing patients about the risk of mortality in the year following hip fracture surgery. The primary reasons for not discussing this risk were a desire to avoid frightening patients, time constraints, and concerns about undermining patient hope. Surgeons reported a medium-high level of perceived self-efficacy, with higher self-efficacy linked to a reduced likelihood of discussing one-year mortality risk. In contrast, older age and holding a specialist status in orthopedic surgery were associated with a higher likelihood of discussing this risk with patients. Conclusions: The findings suggest a need for interventions to address communication barriers and ensure consistent provision of essential information to patients undergoing hip fracture surgery. Additionally, they emphasize the importance of considering individual factors such as self-efficacy, age, and expertise in developing strategies to enhance patient-provider communication in orthopedic care settings.Keywords: orthopedic surgeons, hip fracture surgery, mortality risk communication, patient information
Procedia PDF Downloads 286419 Probabilistic Health Risk Assessment of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Repeatedly Used Edible Oils and Finger Foods
Authors: Suraj Sam Issaka, Anita Asamoah, Abass Gibrilla, Joseph Richmond Fianko
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Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a group of organic compounds that can form in edible oils during repeated frying and accumulate in fried foods. This study assesses the chances of health risks (carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic) due to PAHs levels in popular finger foods (bean cakes, plantain chips, doughnuts) fried in edible oils (mixed vegetable, sunflower, soybean) from the Ghanaian market. Employing probabilistic health risk assessment that considers variability and uncertainty in exposure and risk estimates provides a more realistic representation of potential health risks. Monte Carlo simulations with 10,000 iterations were used to estimate carcinogenic, mutagenic, and non-carcinogenic risks for different age groups (A: 6-10 years, B: 11-20 years, C: 20-70 years), food types (bean cake, plantain chips, doughnut), oil types (soybean, mixed vegetable, sunflower), and re-usage frying oil frequencies (once, twice, thrice). Our results suggest that, for age Group A, doughnuts posed the highest probability of carcinogenic risk (91.55%) exceeding the acceptable threshold, followed by bean cakes (43.87%) and plantain chips (7.72%), as well as the highest probability of unacceptable mutagenic risk (89.2%), followed by bean cakes (40.32%). Among age Group B, doughnuts again had the highest probability of exceeding carcinogenic risk limits (51.16%) and mutagenic risk limits (44.27%). At the same time, plantain chips exhibited the highest maximum carcinogenic risk. For adults age Group C, bean cakes had the highest probability of unacceptable carcinogenic (50.88%) and mutagenic risks (46.44%), though plantain chips showed the highest maximum values for both carcinogenic and mutagenic risks in this age group. Also, on non-carcinogenic risks across different age groups, it was found that age Group A) who consumed doughnuts had a 68.16% probability of a hazard quotient (HQ) greater than 1, suggesting potential cognitive impairment and lower IQ scores due to early PAH exposure. This group also faced risks from consuming plantain chips and bean cake. For age Group B, the consumption of plantain chips was associated with a 36.98% probability of HQ greater than 1, indicating a potential risk of reduced lung function. In age Group C, the consumption of plantain chips was linked to a 35.70% probability of HQ greater than 1, suggesting a potential risk of cardiovascular diseases.Keywords: PAHs, fried foods, carcinogenic risk, non-carcinogenic risk, Monte Carlo simulations
Procedia PDF Downloads 186418 Postmortem Genetic Testing to Sudden and Unexpected Deaths Using the Next Generation Sequencing
Authors: Eriko Ochiai, Fumiko Satoh, Keiko Miyashita, Yu Kakimoto, Motoki Osawa
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Sudden and unexpected deaths from unknown causes occur in infants and youths. Recently, molecular links between a part of these deaths and several genetic diseases are examined in the postmortem. For instance, hereditary long QT syndrome and Burgada syndrome are occasionally fatal through critical ventricular tachyarrhythmia. There are a large number of target genes responsible for such diseases, the conventional analysis using the Sanger’s method has been laborious. In this report, we attempted to analyze sudden deaths comprehensively using the next generation sequencing (NGS) technique. Multiplex PCR to subject’s DNA was performed using Ion AmpliSeq Library Kits 2.0 and Ion AmpliSeq Inherited Disease Panel (Life Technologies). After the library was constructed by emulsion PCR, the amplicons were sequenced 500 flows on Ion Personal Genome Machine System (Life Technologies) according to the manufacture instruction. SNPs and indels were analyzed to the sequence reads that were mapped on hg19 of reference sequences. This project has been approved by the ethical committee of Tokai University School of Medicine. As a representative case, the molecular analysis to a 40 years old male who received a diagnosis of Brugada syndrome demonstrated a total of 584 SNPs or indels. Non-synonymous and frameshift nucleotide substitutions were selected in the coding region of heart disease related genes of ANK2, AKAP9, CACNA1C, DSC2, KCNQ1, MYLK, SCN1B, and STARD3. In particular, c.629T-C transition in exon 3 of the SCN1B gene, resulting in a leu210-to-pro (L210P) substitution is predicted “damaging” by the SIFT program. Because the mutation has not been reported, it was unclear if the substitution was pathogenic. Sudden death that failed in determining the cause of death constitutes one of the most important unsolved subjects in forensic pathology. The Ion AmpliSeq Inherited Disease Panel can amplify the exons of 328 genes at one time. We realized the difficulty in selection of the true source from a number of candidates, but postmortem genetic testing using NGS analysis deserves of a diagnostic to date. We now extend this analysis to SIDS suspected subjects and young sudden death victims.Keywords: postmortem genetic testing, sudden death, SIDS, next generation sequencing
Procedia PDF Downloads 3606417 Navigating the Digital Landscape: An Ethnographic Content Analysis of Black Youth's Encounters with Racially Traumatic Content on Social Media
Authors: Tiera Tanksley, Amanda M. McLeroy
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The advent of technology and social media has ushered in a new era of communication, providing platforms for news dissemination and cause advocacy. However, this digital landscape has also exposed a distressing phenomenon termed "Black death," or trauma porn. This paper delves into the profound effects of repeated exposure to traumatic content on Black youth via social media, exploring the psychological impacts and potential reinforcing of stereotypes. Employing Critical Race Technology Theory (CRTT), the study sheds light on algorithmic anti-blackness and its influence on Black youth's lives and educational experiences. Through ethnographic content analysis, the research investigates common manifestations of Black death encountered online by Black adolescents. Findings unveil distressing viral videos, traumatic images, racial slurs, and hate speech, perpetuating stereotypes. However, amidst the distress, the study identifies narratives of activism and social justice on social media platforms, empowering Black youth to engage in positive change. Coping mechanisms and community support emerge as significant factors in navigating the digital landscape. The study underscores the need for comprehensive interventions and policies informed by evidence-based research. By addressing algorithmic anti-blackness and promoting digital resilience, the paper advocates for a more empathetic and inclusive online environment. Understanding coping mechanisms and community support becomes imperative for fostering mental well-being among Black adolescents navigating social media. In education, the implications are substantial. Acknowledging the impact of Black death content, educators play a pivotal role in promoting media literacy and digital resilience. Creating inclusive and safe online spaces, educators can mitigate negative effects and encourage open discussions about traumatic content. The application of CRTT in educational technology emphasizes dismantling systemic biases and promoting equity. In conclusion, this study calls for educators to be cognizant of the impact of Black death content on social media. By prioritizing media literacy, fostering digital resilience, and advocating for unbiased technologies, educators contribute to an inclusive and just educational environment for all students, irrespective of their race or background. Addressing challenges related to Black death content proactively ensures the well-being and mental health of Black adolescents, fostering an empathetic and inclusive digital space.Keywords: algorithmic anti-Blackness, digital resilience, media literacy, traumatic content
Procedia PDF Downloads 596416 Long-Term Results of Coronary Bifurcation Stenting with Drug Eluting Stents
Authors: Piotr Muzyk, Beata Morawiec, Mariusz Opara, Andrzej Tomasik, Brygida Przywara-Chowaniec, Wojciech Jachec, Ewa Nowalany-Kozielska, Damian Kawecki
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Background: Coronary bifurcation is one of the most complex lesion in patients with coronary ar-tery disease. Provisional T-stenting is currently one of the recommended techniques. The aim was to assess optimal methods of treatment in the era of drug-eluting stents (DES). Methods: The regis-try consisted of data from 1916 patients treated with coronary percutaneous interventions (PCI) using either first- or second-generation DES. Patients with bifurcation lesion entered the analysis. Major adverse cardiac and cardiovascular events (MACCE) were assessed at one year of follow-up and comprised of death, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), repeated PCI (re-PCI) of target ves-sel and stroke. Results: Of 1916 registry patients, 204 patients (11%) were diagnosed with bifurcation lesion >50% and entered the analysis. The most commonly used technique was provi-sional T-stenting (141 patients, 69%). Optimization with kissing-balloons technique was performed in 45 patients (22%). In 59 patients (29%) second-generation DES was implanted, while in 112 pa-tients (55%), first-generation DES was used. In 33 patients (16%) both types of DES were used. The procedure success rate (TIMI 3 flow) was achieved in 98% of patients. In one-year follow-up, there were 39 MACCE (19%) (9 deaths, 17 AMI, 16 re-PCI and 5 strokes). Provisional T-stenting resulted in similar rate of MACCE to other techniques (16% vs. 5%, p=0.27) and similar occurrence of re-PCI (6% vs. 2%, p=0.78). The results of post-PCI kissing-balloon technique gave equal out-comes with 3% vs. 16% of MACCE in patients in whom no optimization technique was used (p=0.39). The type of implanted DES (second- vs. first-generation) had no influence on MACCE (4% vs 14%, respectively, p=0.12) and re-PCI (1.7% vs. 51% patients, respectively, p=0.28). Con-clusions: The treatment of bifurcation lesions with PCI represent high-risk procedures with high rate of MACCE. Stenting technique, optimization of PCI and the generation of implanted stent should be personalized for each case to balance risk of the procedure. In this setting, the operator experience might be the factor of better outcome, which should be further investigated.Keywords: coronary bifurcation, drug eluting stents, long-term follow-up, percutaneous coronary interventions
Procedia PDF Downloads 2046415 Entropy Risk Factor Model of Exchange Rate Prediction
Authors: Darrol Stanley, Levan Efremidze, Jannie Rossouw
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We investigate the predictability of the USD/ZAR (South African Rand) exchange rate with sample entropy analytics for the period of 2004-2015. We calculate sample entropy based on the daily data of the exchange rate and conduct empirical implementation of several market timing rules based on these entropy signals. The dynamic investment portfolio based on entropy signals produces better risk adjusted performance than a buy and hold strategy. The returns are estimated on the portfolio values in U.S. dollars. These results are preliminary and do not yet account for reasonable transactions costs, although these are very small in currency markets.Keywords: currency trading, entropy, market timing, risk factor model
Procedia PDF Downloads 2716414 Spatial Analysis as a Tool to Assess Risk Management in Peru
Authors: Josué Alfredo Tomas Machaca Fajardo, Jhon Elvis Chahua Janampa, Pedro Rau Lavado
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A flood vulnerability index was developed for the Piura River watershed in northern Peru using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to assess flood risk. The official methodology to assess risk from natural hazards in Peru was introduced in 1980 and proved effective for aiding complex decision-making. This method relies in part on decision-makers defining subjective correlations between variables to identify high-risk areas. While risk identification and ensuing response activities benefit from a qualitative understanding of influences, this method does not take advantage of the advent of national and international data collection efforts, which can supplement our understanding of risk. Furthermore, this method does not take advantage of broadly applied statistical methods such as PCA, which highlight central indicators of vulnerability. Nowadays, information processing is much faster and allows for more objective decision-making tools, such as PCA. The approach presented here develops a tool to improve the current flood risk assessment in the Peruvian basin. Hence, the spatial analysis of the census and other datasets provides a better understanding of the current land occupation and a basin-wide distribution of services and human populations, a necessary step toward ultimately reducing flood risk in Peru. PCA allows the simplification of a large number of variables into a few factors regarding social, economic, physical and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. There is a correlation between the location of people and the water availability mainly found in rivers. For this reason, a comprehensive vision of the population location around the river basin is necessary to establish flood prevention policies. The grouping of 5x5 km gridded areas allows the spatial analysis of flood risk rather than assessing political divisions of the territory. The index was applied to the Peruvian region of Piura, where several flood events occurred in recent past years, being one of the most affected regions during the ENSO events in Peru. The analysis evidenced inequalities for the access to basic services, such as water, electricity, internet and sewage, between rural and urban areas.Keywords: assess risk, flood risk, indicators of vulnerability, principal component analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 1876413 Competition between Regression Technique and Statistical Learning Models for Predicting Credit Risk Management
Authors: Chokri Slim
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The objective of this research is attempting to respond to this question: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and statistical learning models in predicting credit risk management? A Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model was compared with neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and a Support vector regression (SVR). The population of this study includes 50 listed Banks in Tunis Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2000 to 2016. Firstly, we show the factors that have significant effect on the quality of loan portfolios of banks in Tunisia. Secondly, it attempts to establish that the systematic use of objective techniques and methods designed to apprehend and assess risk when considering applications for granting credit, has a positive effect on the quality of loan portfolios of banks and their future collectability. Finally, we will try to show that the bank governance has an impact on the choice of methods and techniques for analyzing and measuring the risks inherent in the banking business, including the risk of non-repayment. The results of empirical tests confirm our claims.Keywords: credit risk management, multiple linear regression, principal components analysis, artificial neural networks, support vector machines
Procedia PDF Downloads 1526412 Credit Risk Prediction Based on Bayesian Estimation of Logistic Regression Model with Random Effects
Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat
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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC
Procedia PDF Downloads 5426411 Uptake and Determinants of Rabies Pre-exposure Prophylaxis among At-Risk Travelers
Authors: Florian Lienert, Peter Costa, Caroline Aurensan, Elaine Melander
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Introduction: Rabies pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can be given before travel and simplifies post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). We studied the knowledge about rabies, the uptake of PrEP, and reasons for deciding for or against PrEP in at-risk travelers. We also examined how healthcare professionals (HCPs) counsel on rabies prevention. Methods: On behalf of Bavarian Nordic, Ipsos MORI conducted two online surveys in the USA. Fieldwork from February 24th to April 23rd, 2021, 689 participants aged 18-85 years, visited one of 91 endemic rabies countries in the past 3 years for at least one week, involved in at least 1 of 7 at-risk activities, heard of rabies, positive towards vaccination and chose to take part (surveyed travelers). Secondly, 76 HCPs, with responsibility for advising/ making decisions about vaccination requirements for their patients, personally recommend or prescribe vaccines for rabies, positive towards vaccination and chose to take part (surveyed HCPs). Results: A minority (36%) of surveyed travelers classified rabies as a life-threatening disease. A third of surveyed HCPs (37%) did not discuss rabies vaccination with at-risk travelers, 18% discussed only PEP, 23% only PrEP and 22% both. A minority (21%) of surveyed travelers reported having received rabies vaccination since they were 18. Among those participants (n=145), the most common reasons for deciding to get PrEP were for their own peace of mind (35%) and following an HCP recommendation (32%). Of those who decided not to receive the rabies vaccine (n=319), the most common reasons were that they did not think their risk of rabies was sufficient (23%) and that the HCP did not suggest it (23%). Conclusions: The survey demonstrated knowledge gaps around rabies and low PrEP coverage among surveyed travelers. It also highlighted the role of HCP recommendations and showed that most HCPs did not discuss PrEP with at-risk travelers.Keywords: rabies, pre-exposure prophylaxis, travel, travel health, post-travel care, rabies treatment, vaccine, post-exposure, prophylaxis, at-risk, education, PrEP, PEP
Procedia PDF Downloads 1826410 The Relationship Between Exposure to Traumatic Events in the Delivery Room, Post-Traumatic Stress Symptoms, Personal Resilience, Organizational Commitment, and Professional Quality of Life Among Midwives
Authors: Kinneret Segal
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Background: The work of a midwife is emotionally challenging, both positively and negatively. Midwives share moments of joy when a baby is welcomed into the world and also attend difficult events of loss and trauma. The relationship that develops with the maternity is the essence of the midwife's care, and it is a fundamental source of motivation and professional satisfaction. This close relationship with the maternity may be used as a double-edged sword in cases of exposure to traumatic events at birth. Birth problems, exposure to emergencies and traumatic events, and loss can affect the professional quality of life and the Compassion satisfaction of the midwife. It seems that the issue of traumatic experiences in the work of midwives has not been sufficiently explored. Aim: The present study examined the associations between exposure to traumatic events, personal resilience and post-traumatic symptoms, professional quality of life, and organizational commitment among midwifery nurses in Israeli hospitals. Methods: 131 midwives from three hospitals in the country's center in Israel participated in this study. The data were collected during 2021 using a self-report questionnaire that examined sociodemographic characteristics, the degree of exposure to traumatic events in the delivery room, personal resilience, post-traumatic symptoms, professional quality of life, and organizational commitment. Results: The three most difficult traumatic events for the midwives were death or fear of death of a newborn, death or fear of the death of a mother, and a quiet birth. The higher the frequency of exposure to traumatic events, the more numerous and intense the onset of post-trauma symptoms. The more numerous and powerful the post-trauma symptoms, the higher the level of professional burnout and/or compassion fatigue, and the lower the level of compassion satisfaction. High levels of compassion satisfaction and/or low professional burnout were expressed in a heightened sense of organizational commitment. Personal resilience, country of birth, traumatic symptoms, and organizational commitment predicted satisfaction from compassion. Conclusions: Midwives are exposed to traumatic events associated with dissatisfaction and impairment of the professional quality of life that accompanies burnout and compassion fatigue. Exposure to traumatic events leads to the appearance of traumatic symptoms, a decrease in organizational commitment, and psychological and mental well-being. The issue needs to be addressed by implementing training programs, organizational support, and policies to improving well-being and quality of care among midwives.Keywords: organizational commitment, traumatic experiences, personal resilience, quality of life
Procedia PDF Downloads 1126409 Mandatory Wellness Assessments for Medical Students at the University of Ottawa
Authors: Haykal. Kay-Anne
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The health and well-being of students is a priority for the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Ottawa. The demands of medical studies are extreme, and many studies confirm that the prevalence of psychological distress is very high among medical students and that it is higher than that of the general population of the same age. The main goal is to identify risk factors for mental health among medical students at the University of Ottawa. The secondary objectives are to determine the variation of these risk factors according to demographic variables, as well as to determine if there is a change in the mental health of students during the 1st and 3rd years of their study. Medical students have a mandatory first and third-year wellness check meeting. This assessment includes a questionnaire on demographic information, mental health, and risk factors such as physical health, sleep, social support, financial stress, education and career, stress and drug use and/or alcohol. Student responses were converted to numerical values and analyzed statistically. The results show that 61% of the variation in the mean of the mental health score is explained by the following risk factors (R2 = 0.61, F (9.396) = 67.197, p < 0.01): lack of sleep and fatigue (β = 0.281, p < 0.001), lack of social support (β = 0.217, p <0.001), poor study or career development (β = 0.195, p < 0.001) and an increase stress and drug and alcohol use (β = -0.239, p < 0.001). No demographic variable has a significant effect on the presence of risk factors. In addition, fixed-effects regression demonstrated significantly lower mental health (p < 0.1) among first-year students (M = 0.587, SD = 0.072) than among third-year students (M = 0.719, SD = 0.071). This preliminary study indicates the need to continue data collection and analysis to increase the significance of the study results. As risk factors are present at the beginning of medical studies, it is important to offer resources to students very early in their medical studies and to have close monitoring and supervision.Keywords: assessment of mental health, medical students, risk factors for mental health, wellness assessment
Procedia PDF Downloads 1236408 An Evaluation of the Use of Telematics for Improving the Driving Behaviours of Young People
Authors: James Boylan, Denny Meyer, Won Sun Chen
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Background: Globally, there is an increasing trend of road traffic deaths, reaching 1.35 million in 2016 in comparison to 1.3 million a decade ago, and overall, road traffic injuries are ranked as the eighth leading cause of death for all age groups. The reported death rate for younger drivers aged 16-19 years is almost twice the rate reported for older drivers aged 25 and above, with a rate of 3.5 road traffic fatalities per annum for every 10,000 licenses held. Telematics refers to a system with the ability to capture real-time data about vehicle usage. The data collected from telematics can be used to better assess a driver's risk. It is typically used to measure acceleration, turn, braking, and speed, as well as to provide locational information. With the Australian government creating the National Telematics Framework, there has been an increase in the government's focus on using telematics data to improve road safety outcomes. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that improvements in telematics measured driving behaviour to relate to improvements in road safety attitudes measured by the Driving Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ). Methodology: 28 participants were recruited and given a telematics device to insert into their vehicles for the duration of the study. The participant's driving behaviour over the course of the first month will be compared to their driving behaviour in the second month to determine whether feedback from telematics devices improves driving behaviour. Participants completed the DBQ, evaluated using a 6-point Likert scale (0 = never, 5 = nearly all the time) at the beginning, after the first month, and after the second month of the study. This is a well-established instrument used worldwide. Trends in the telematics data will be captured and correlated with the changes in the DBQ using regression models in SAS. Results: The DBQ has provided a reliable measure (alpha = .823) of driving behaviour based on a sample of 23 participants, with an average of 50.5 and a standard deviation of 11.36, and a range of 29 to 76, with higher scores, indicating worse driving behaviours. This initial sample is well stratified in terms of gender and age (range 19-27). It is expected that in the next six weeks, a larger sample of around 40 will have completed the DBQ after experiencing in-vehicle telematics for 30 days, allowing a comparison with baseline levels. The trends in the telematics data over the first 30 days will be compared with the changes observed in the DBQ. Conclusions: It is expected that there will be a significant relationship between the improvements in the DBQ and the trends in reduced telematics measured aggressive driving behaviours supporting the hypothesis.Keywords: telematics, driving behavior, young drivers, driving behaviour questionnaire
Procedia PDF Downloads 1076407 Risk in the South African Sectional Title Industry: An Assurance Perspective
Authors: Leandi Steenkamp
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The sectional title industry has been a part of the property landscape in South Africa for almost half a century, and plays a significant role in addressing the housing problem in the country. Stakeholders such as owners and investors in sectional title property are in most cases not directly involved in the management thereof, and place reliance on the audited annual financial statements of bodies corporate for decision-making purposes. Although the industry seems to be highly regulated, the legislation regarding accounting and auditing of sectional title is vague and ambiguous. Furthermore, there are no industry-specific auditing and accounting standards to guide accounting and auditing practitioners in performing their work and industry financial benchmarks are not readily available. In addition, financial pressure on sectional title schemes is often very high due to the fact that some owners exercise unrealistic pressure to keep monthly levies as low as possible. All these factors have an impact on the business risk as well as audit risk of bodies corporate. Very little academic research has been undertaken on the sectional title industry in South Africa from an accounting and auditing perspective. The aim of this paper is threefold: Firstly, to discuss the findings of a literature review on uncertainties, ambiguity and confusing aspects in current legislation regarding the audit of a sectional title property that may cause or increase audit and business risk. Secondly, empirical findings of risk-related aspects from the results of interviews with three groups of body corporate role-players will be discussed. The role-players were body corporate trustee chairpersons, body corporate managing agents and accounting and auditing practitioners of bodies corporate. Specific reference will be made to business risk and audit risk. Thirdly, practical recommendations will be made on possibilities of closing the audit expectation gap, and further research opportunities in this regard will be discussed.Keywords: assurance, audit, audit risk, body corporate, corporate governance, sectional title
Procedia PDF Downloads 2686406 The Underestimation of Cultural Risk in the Execution of Megaprojects
Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker, Michael Ellis
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There is a real danger that both practitioners and researchers considering risks associated with megaprojects ignore or underestimate the impacts of cultural risk. The paper investigates the potential impacts of a failure to achieve cultural unity between the principal actors executing a megaproject. The principle relationships include the relationships between the principle Contractors and the project stakeholders or the project stakeholders and their principle advisors, Western Consultants. This study confirms that cultural dissonance between these parties can delay or disrupt the megaproject execution and examines why cultural issues should be prioritized as a significant risk factor in megaproject delivery. This paper addresses the practical impacts and potential mitigation measures, which may reduce cultural dissonance for a megaproject's delivery. This information is retrieved from on-going case studies in live infrastructure megaprojects in Europe and the Middle East's GCC states, from Western Consultants' perspective. The collaborating researchers each have at least 30 years of construction experience and are engaged in architecture, project management and contracts management, dealing with megaprojects in Europe or the GCC. After examining the cultural interfaces they have observed during the execution of megaprojects, they conclude that globally, culture significantly influences their efficient delivery. The study finds that cultural risk is ever-present, where different nationalities co-manage megaprojects and that cultural conflict poses a real threat to the timely delivery of megaprojects. The study indicates that the higher the cultural distance between the principal actors, the more pronounced the risk, with the risk of cultural dissonance more prominent in GCC megaprojects. The findings support a more culturally aware and cohesive team approach and recommend cross-cultural training to mitigate the effects of cultural disparity.Keywords: cultural risk underestimation, cultural distance, megaproject characteristics, megaproject execution
Procedia PDF Downloads 1076405 Coping with the Stress and Negative Emotions of Care-Giving by Using Techniques from Seneca, Epictetus, and Marcus Aurelius
Authors: Arsalan Memon
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There are many challenges that a caregiver faces in average everyday life. One such challenge is coping with the stress and negative emotions of caregiving. The Stoics (i.e. Lucius Annaeus Seneca [4 B.C.E. - 65 C.E.], Epictetus [50-135 C.E.], and Marcus Aurelius [121-180 C.E.]) have provided coping techniques that are useful for dealing with stress and negative emotions. This paper lists and explains some of the fundamental coping techniques provided by the Stoics. For instance, some Stoic coping techniques thus follow (the list is far from exhaustive): a) mindfulness: to the best of your ability, constantly being aware of your thoughts, habits, desires, norms, memories, likes/dislikes, beliefs, values, and of everything outside of you in the world (b) constantly adjusting one’s expectations in accordance with reality, c) memento mori: constantly reminding oneself that death is inevitable and that death is not to be seen as evil, and d) praemeditatio malorum: constantly detaching oneself from everything that is so dear to one so that the least amount of suffering follows from the loss, damage, or ceasing to be of such entities. All coping techniques will be extracted from the following original texts by the Stoics: Seneca’s Letters to Lucilius, Epictetus’ Discourses and the Encheiridion, and Marcus Aurelius’ Meditations. One major finding is that the usefulness of each Stoic coping technique can be empirically tested by anyone in the sense of applying it one’s own life especially when one is facing real-life challenges. Another major finding is that all of the Stoic coping techniques are predicated upon, and follow from, one fundamental principle: constantly differentiate what is and what is not in one’s control. After differentiating it, one should constantly habituate oneself in not controlling things that are beyond one’s control. For example, the following things are beyond one’s control (all things being equal): death, certain illnesses, being born in a particular socio-economic family, etc. The conclusion is that if one habituates oneself by practicing to the best of one’s ability both the fundamental Stoic principle and the Stoic coping techniques, then such a habitual practice can eventually decrease the stress and negative emotions that one experiences by being a caregiver.Keywords: care-giving, coping techniques, negative emotions, stoicism, stress
Procedia PDF Downloads 1416404 An Investigation of Crop Diversity’s Impact on Income Risk of Selected Crops
Authors: Saeed Yazdani, Sima Mohamadi Amidabadi, Amir Mohamadi Nejad, Farahnaz Nekoofar
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As a result of uncertainty and doubts about the quantity of agricultural products, greater significance has been attached to risk management in the agricultural sector. Normally, farmers seek to minimize risks, and crop diversity has always been a means to reduce risk. The study at hand seeks to explore the long-term impact of crop diversity on income risk reduction. The timeframe of the study is 1998 to 2018. Initially, the Herfindahl index was used to estimate crop diversity in different periods, and next, the Hodrick-Prescott filter was applied to estimate income risk both in nominal and real terms. Finally, using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the long-term impact of crop diversity on two modes of risk for the farmer's income has been estimated. Given the long-term pattern’s results, it is evident that in the long-run, crop diversity can reduce income fluctuations in two nominal and real terms. Moreover, results showed that in case the fluctuation shock affects the agricultural income in the short run, to balance out the shock in nominal and real terms, 4 and 3 cycles are needed respectively. In other words, in each cycle, 25% and 33% of the shock impact can be removed, respectively. Thus, as the results of the error correction coefficient showed, policies need to be put in place to prevent income shocks. In case of a shock, they need to be balanced out in a four-year period, taking inflation into account, and in a three-year period irrespective of the inflation and reparative policies such as insurance services should be developed.Keywords: risk, long-term model, Herfindahl index, time series model, vector error correction model
Procedia PDF Downloads 276403 Sudden Death of a Cocaine Body Packer: An Autopsy Examination Findings
Authors: Parthasarathi Pramanik
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Body packing is a way of transfer drugs across the international border or any drug prohibited area. The drugs are usually hidden in body packets inside the anatomical body cavities like mouth, intestines, rectum, ear, vagina etc. Cocaine is a very common drug for body packing across the world. A 48 year old male was reported dead in his hotel after complaining of chest pain and vomiting. At autopsy, there were eighty-two white cylindrical body packs in the stomach, small and large intestines. Seals of few of the packets were opened. Toxicological examination revealed presence of cocaine in the stomach, liver, kidney and hair samples. Microscopically, presence of myocardial necrosis with interstitial oedema along with hypertrophy and fibrosis of the myocardial fibre suggested heart failure due to cocaine cardio toxicity. However, focal lymphocyte infiltration and perivascular fibrosis in the myocardium also indicated chronic cocaine toxicity of the deceased. After careful autopsy examination it was considered the victim was died due congestive heart failure secondary to acute and chronic cocaine poisoning.Keywords: cardiac failure, cocaine, body packer, sudden death
Procedia PDF Downloads 3206402 Information Disclosure And Financial Sentiment Index Using a Machine Learning Approach
Authors: Alev Atak
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In this paper, we aim to create a financial sentiment index by investigating the company’s voluntary information disclosures. We retrieve structured content from BIST 100 companies’ financial reports for the period 1998-2018 and extract relevant financial information for sentiment analysis through Natural Language Processing. We measure strategy-related disclosures and their cross-sectional variation and classify report content into generic sections using synonym lists divided into four main categories according to their liquidity risk profile, risk positions, intra-annual information, and exposure to risk. We use Word Error Rate and Cosin Similarity for comparing and measuring text similarity and derivation in sets of texts. In addition to performing text extraction, we will provide a range of text analysis options, such as the readability metrics, word counts using pre-determined lists (e.g., forward-looking, uncertainty, tone, etc.), and comparison with reference corpus (word, parts of speech and semantic level). Therefore, we create an adequate analytical tool and a financial dictionary to depict the importance of granular financial disclosure for investors to identify correctly the risk-taking behavior and hence make the aggregated effects traceable.Keywords: financial sentiment, machine learning, information disclosure, risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 946401 Prioritizing the Factors Effective on Decreasing the Rate of Accidents on Freeways in Iran between 2013-2015
Authors: Mansour Hadji Hosseinlou, Alireza Mahdavi
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Transportation is one of any society's needs which have developed after improving economically and socially and is one of civilization symbols today. Although it is so useful for human, it leads to many serious harms and injuries. The development of communication system and building new roads has resulted in increasing the rate of accidents; therefore, in practice, this increasing rate has decreased the advantages of transportation. Traffic accidents are one of the causes of death, serious financial and bodily harms and its significant social, economic and cultural consequences threatens the societies seriously. Iran's ground transportation system is one of the most eventful transportation systems in the world and mortality rate and financial harms cost too much for the country in national aspect. Therefore, we have presented a data collection by referring to recorded statistics of the accidents occurred in freeways from 2013 to 2015. These statistics are recorded in different related databases, generally police and road transportation system. The data is separated and arranged in tables and after preparing, processing and prioritizing the factors, the achieved collection is presented to the departments, managers and researchers to help them suggest practical solutions.Keywords: freeways’ accidents, humane causes, death, tiredness, drowsiness
Procedia PDF Downloads 1946400 Flood Risk Management in Low Income Countries: Balancing Risk and Development
Authors: Gavin Quibell, Martin Kleynhans, Margot Soler
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The Sendai Framework notes that disaster risk reduction is essential for sustainable development, and Disaster Risk Reduction is included in 3 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and 4 of the SDG targets. However, apart from promoting better governance and resourcing of disaster management agencies, little guidance is given how low-income nations can balance investments across the SDGs to achieve sustainable development in an increasingly climate vulnerable world with increasing prevalence of flood and drought disasters. As one of the world’s poorest nations, Malawi must balance investments across all the SDGs. This paper explores how Malawi’s National Guidelines for Community-based Flood Risk Management integrate sustainable development and flood management objectives at different administrative levels. While Malawi periodically suffers from large, widespread flooding, the greatest impacts are felt through the smaller annual floods and flash floods. The Guidelines address this through principles that recognize that while the protection of human life is the most important priority for flood risk management, addressing the impacts of floods on the rural poor and the economy requires different approaches. The National Guidelines are therefore underpinned by the following; 1. In the short-term investments in flood risk management must focus on breaking the poverty – vulnerability cycle; 2. In the long-term investments in the other SDGs will have the greatest flood risk management benefits; 3. If measures are in place to prevent loss of life and protect strategic infrastructure, it is better to protect more people against small and medium size floods than fewer people against larger floods; 4. Flood prevention measures should focus on small (1:5 return period) floods; 5. Flood protection measures should focus on small and medium floods (1:20 return period) while minimizing the risk of failure in larger floods; 6. The impacts of larger floods ( > 1:50) must be addressed through improved preparedness; 7. The impacts of climate change on flood frequencies are best addressed by focusing on growth not overdesign; and 8. Manage floods and droughts conjunctively. The National Guidelines weave these principles into Malawi’s approach to flood risk management through recommendations for planning and implementing flood prevention, protection and preparedness measures at district, traditional authority and village levels.Keywords: flood risk management in low-income countries, sustainable development, investments in prevention, protection and preparedness, community-based flood risk management, Malawi
Procedia PDF Downloads 2426399 Neural Network-based Risk Detection for Dyslexia and Dysgraphia in Sinhala Language Speaking Children
Authors: Budhvin T. Withana, Sulochana Rupasinghe
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The problem of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, two learning disabilities that affect reading and writing abilities, respectively, is a major concern for the educational system. Due to the complexity and uniqueness of the Sinhala language, these conditions are especially difficult for children who speak it. The traditional risk detection methods for Dyslexia and Dysgraphia frequently rely on subjective assessments, making it difficult to cover a wide range of risk detection and time-consuming. As a result, diagnoses may be delayed and opportunities for early intervention may be lost. The project was approached by developing a hybrid model that utilized various deep learning techniques for detecting risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia. Specifically, Resnet50, VGG16 and YOLOv8 were integrated to detect the handwriting issues, and their outputs were fed into an MLP model along with several other input data. The hyperparameters of the MLP model were fine-tuned using Grid Search CV, which allowed for the optimal values to be identified for the model. This approach proved to be effective in accurately predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, providing a valuable tool for early detection and intervention of these conditions. The Resnet50 model achieved an accuracy of 0.9804 on the training data and 0.9653 on the validation data. The VGG16 model achieved an accuracy of 0.9991 on the training data and 0.9891 on the validation data. The MLP model achieved an impressive training accuracy of 0.99918 and a testing accuracy of 0.99223, with a loss of 0.01371. These results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid model achieved a high level of accuracy in predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia.Keywords: neural networks, risk detection system, Dyslexia, Dysgraphia, deep learning, learning disabilities, data science
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