Search results for: structural time series model (STSM)

Authors: Ersilio Tushaj

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The efficient solution that satisfies the optimal condition is an important issue in the structural engineering design problem. The new codes of structural design consist in design methodology that looks after the exploitation of the total resources of the construction material. In recent years some non-deterministic or meta-heuristic structural optimization algorithms have been developed widely in the research community. These methods search the optimum condition starting from the simulation of a natural phenomenon, such as survival of the fittest, the immune system, swarm intelligence or the cooling process of molten metal through annealing. Among these techniques the most known are: the genetic algorithms, simulated annealing, evolution strategies, particle swarm optimization, tabu search, ant colony optimization, harmony search and big bang crunch optimization. In this study, five of these algorithms are applied for the optimum weight design of a steel truss structure with variable geometry but fixed topology. The design process selects optimum distances and size sections from a set of commercial steel profiles. In the formulation of the design problem are considered deflection limitations, buckling and allowable stress constraints. The approach is repeated starting from different initial populations. The design problem topology is taken from an existing steel structure. The optimization process helps the engineer to achieve good final solutions, avoiding the repetitive evaluation of alternative designs in a time consuming process. The algorithms used for the application, the results of the optimal solutions, the number of iterations and the minimal weight designs, will be reported in the paper. Based on these results, it would be estimated, the amount of the steel that could be saved by applying structural analysis combined with non-deterministic optimization methods.

Keywords: structural optimization, non-deterministic methods, truss structures, steel truss

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Authors: Chiung-Ju Huang

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This study examines whether the Taiwan’s public debt is sustainable utilizing an unrestricted two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with an autoregressive unit root. The empirical results show that Taiwan’s public debt appears as a nonlinear series and is stationary in regime 1 but not in regime 2. This result implies that while Taiwan’s public debt was mostly sustainable over the 1996 to 2013 period examined in the study, it may no longer be sustainable in the most recent two years as the public debt ratio has increased cumulatively to 3.618%.

Keywords: nonlinearity, public debt, sustainability, threshold autoregressive model

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Authors: Marco Sewald

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Comparing present to past the numbers of Americans expatriating U. S. citizenship have risen. Even though these numbers are small compared to the immigrants, U. S. citizens expatriations have historically been much lower, making the uptick worrisome. In addition, the published lists and numbers from the U.S. government seems incomplete, with many not counted. Different branches of the U. S. government report different numbers and no one seems to know exactly how big the real number is, even though the IRS and the FBI both track and/or publish numbers of Americans who renounce. Since there is no single explanation, anecdotal evidence suggests this uptick is caused by global tax law and increased compliance burdens imposed by the U.S. lawmakers on U.S. citizens abroad. Within a research project the question arose about the reasons why a constant growing number of U.S. citizens are expatriating – the answers are believed helping to explain the underlying governmental policy rational, leading to such activities. While it is impossible to locate former U.S. citizens to conduct a survey on the reasons and the U.S. government is not commenting on the reasons given within the process of expatriation, the chosen methodology is Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), in the first step by re-using current surveys conducted by different researchers within the population of U. S. citizens residing abroad during the last years. Surveys questioning the personal situation in the context of tax, compliance, citizenship and likelihood to repatriate to the U. S. In general SEM allows: (1) Representing, estimating and validating a theoretical model with linear (unidirectional or not) relationships. (2) Modeling causal relationships between multiple predictors (exogenous) and multiple dependent variables (endogenous). (3) Including unobservable latent variables. (4) Modeling measurement error: the degree to which observable variables describe latent variables. Moreover SEM seems very appealing since the results can be represented either by matrix equations or graphically. Results: the observed variables (items) of the construct are caused by various latent variables. The given surveys delivered a high correlation and it is therefore impossible to identify the distinct effect of each indicator on the latent variable – which was one desired result. Since every SEM comprises two parts: (1) measurement model (outer model) and (2) structural model (inner model), it seems necessary to extend the given data by conducting additional research and surveys to validate the outer model to gain the desired results.

Keywords: expatriation of U. S. citizens, SEM, structural equation modeling, validating

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Authors: Omar Qaftan

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Earthquakes can cause tremendous loss of human life and can result in severe damage to a several of civil engineering structures especially the tall buildings. The response of a multistory structure subjected to earthquake loading is a complex task, and it requires to be studied by physical and numerical modelling. For many circumstances, the scale models on shaking table may be a more economical option than the similar full-scale tests. A shaking table apparatus is a powerful tool that offers a possibility of understanding the actual behaviour of structural systems under earthquake loading. It is required to use a set of scaling relations to predict the behaviour of the full-scale structure. Selecting the scale factors is the most important steps in the simulation of the prototype into the scaled model. In this paper, the principles of scaling modelling procedure are explained in details, and the simulation of scaled multi-storey concrete structure for dynamic studies is investigated. A procedure for a complete dynamic simulation analysis is investigated experimentally and numerically with a scale factor of 1/50. The frequency domain accounting and lateral displacement for both numerical and experimental scaled models are determined. The procedure allows accounting for the actual dynamic behave of actual size porotype structure and scaled model. The procedure is adapted to determine the effects of the tall multi-storey structure on a raft foundation. Four generated accelerograms were used as inputs for the time history motions which are in complying with EC8. The output results of experimental works expressed regarding displacements and accelerations are compared with those obtained from a conventional fixed-base numerical model. Four-time history was applied in both experimental and numerical models, and they concluded that the experimental has an acceptable output accuracy in compare with the numerical model output. Therefore this modelling methodology is valid and qualified for different shaking table experiments tests.

Keywords: structure, raft, soil, interaction

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Authors: Mohammadreza Akbari, Leila Abdollahpour, Sara Akbari, Pooya Soleimani

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Transferring thermo at the field of solid materials for instance tube-shaped structures, causing dynamical vibration at them. Majority of thermal and fluid processes are done engineering science at solid materials, for example, thermo-transferred pipes, fluids, chemical and nuclear reactors, include thermal processes, so, they need to consider the moment solid-fundamental structural strength unto these thermal interactions. Fluid and thermo retentive materials in front of external force to it like thermodynamical force, hydrodynamical force and static force continuously according to a function of time vibrated, and this action causes relative displacement of the structural materials elements, as a result, the moment resistance analysis preservation materials in thermal processes, the most important parameters for design are discussed. Including structural substrate holder temperature and fluid of the administrative and industrial center, is a cylindrical tube that for vibration analysis of cylindrical cells with heat and fluid transfer requires the use of vibration differential equations governing the structure of a tubular and thermal differential equations as the vibrating motive force at double-glazed cylinders.

Keywords: heat transfer, elements in cylindrical coordinates, analytical solving the governing equations, structural vibration

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Authors: Taiki Baba, Tomoaki Hashimoto

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The random dither quantization method enables us to achieve much better performance than the simple uniform quantization method for the design of quantized control systems. Motivated by this fact, the stochastic model predictive control method in which a performance index is minimized subject to probabilistic constraints imposed on the state variables of systems has been proposed for linear feedback control systems with random dither quantization. In other words, a method for solving optimal control problems subject to probabilistic state constraints for linear discrete-time control systems with random dither quantization has been already established. To our best knowledge, however, the feasibility of such a kind of optimal control problems has not yet been studied. Our objective in this paper is to investigate the feasibility of stochastic model predictive control problems for linear discrete-time control systems with random dither quantization. To this end, we provide the results of numerical simulations that verify the feasibility of stochastic model predictive control problems for linear discrete-time control systems with random dither quantization.

Keywords: model predictive control, stochastic systems, probabilistic constraints, random dither quantization

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Authors: Ibrahim Elnour Abdelrahman Eltayeb

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Computational modelling is a method used to investigate joint forces during a movement. It can get high accuracy in the joint forces via subject-specific models. However, the construction of subject-specific models remains time-consuming and expensive. The purpose of this paper was to identify what alterations we can make to generic computational models to get a better estimation of the joint forces. It appraised the impact of these alterations on the accuracy of the estimated joint forces. It found different strategies of alterations: joint model, muscle model, and an optimisation problem. All these alterations affected joint contact force accuracy, so showing the potential for improving the model predictions without involving costly and time-consuming medical images.

Keywords: joint force, joint model, optimisation problem, validation

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Authors: Chur Hee Lee, Jae in Lee, Minh Chau Diah, Jong Su Yoon, Seung Wan Kim

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This paper deals with Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS) analysis about effects of transmission lines failure in power system equipped with Thyristor Controlled Series Capacitance (TCSC) in Korea. The TCSC is firstly applied in Korea to compensate real power in case of 765 kV line faults. Therefore, It is important to analyze with TCSC replica using RTDS. In this test, all systems in Korea, other than those near TCSC, were abbreviated to Thevenin equivalent. The replica was tested in the case of a line failure near the TCSC, a generator failure, and a 765-kV line failure. The effects of conventional operated STATCOM, SVC and TCSC were also analyzed. The test results will be used for the actual TCSC operational impact analysis.

Keywords: failure analysis, power system, RTDS, TCSC

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Authors: George D. Hatzigeorgiou, Nikos G. Pnevmatikos

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This study examines the inelastic behavior of adjacent planar reinforced concrete (R.C.) frames subjected to strong ground motions. The investigation focuses on the effects of vertical ground motion on the seismic pounding. The examined structures are modeled and analyzed by RUAUMOKO dynamic nonlinear analysis program using reliable hysteretic models for both structural members and contact elements. It is found that the vertical ground motion mildly affects the seismic response of adjacent buildings subjected to structural pounding and, for this reason, it can be ignored from the displacement and interstorey drifts assessment. However, the structural damage is moderately affected by the vertical component of earthquakes.

Keywords: nonlinear seismic behavior, reinforced concrete structures, structural pounding, vertical ground motions

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Authors: Farzad Pargar

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We introduce the preventive maintenance and renewal scheduling problem for a multi-unit system over a finite and discretized time horizon. Given the latest possible time for carrying out the next maintenance and renewal projects after the previous ones and considering several common set-up costs, the introduced scheduling model tries to minimize the cost of projects by grouping them and simultaneously finding the optimal balance between doing maintenance and renewal. We present a 0-1 pure integer linear programming that determines which projects should be performed together on which location and in which period (e.g., week or month). We consider railway track as a case for our study and test the performance of the proposed model on a set of test problems. The experimental results show that the proposed approach performs well.

Keywords: maintenance, renewal, scheduling, mathematical programming model

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Authors: Woo-Young Jung, Minho Kwon

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Seismic design criteria based on performance of structures have recently been adopted by practicing engineers in response to destructive earthquakes. A simple but efficient structural-analysis tool capable of predicting both the strength and ductility is needed to analyze reinforced concrete (RC) structures under such event. A three-dimensional lattice model is developed in this study to analyze torsions in high-strength RC members. Optimization techniques for determining optimal variables in each lattice model are introduced. Pure torsion tests of RC members are performed to validate the proposed model. Correlation studies between the numerical and experimental results confirm that the proposed model is well capable of representing salient features of the experimental results.

Keywords: torsion, non-linear analysis, three-dimensional lattice, high-strength concrete

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Authors: G. Santamato, M. Solazzi, A. Frisoli

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Systems for detection of damages in railway pantographs effectively reduce the cost of maintenance and improve time scheduling. In this paper, we present an approach to design a monitoring tool fitting strong customer requirements such as portability and ease of use. Pantograph has been modeled to estimate its dynamical properties, since no data are available. With the aim to focus on suspensions health, a two Degrees of Freedom (DOF) scheme has been adopted. Parameters have been calculated by means of analytical dynamics. A Finite Element Method (FEM) modal analysis verified the former model with an acceptable error. The detection strategy seeks phase-plots topology alteration, induced by defects. In order to test the suitability of the method, leakage in the dashpot was simulated on the lumped model. Results are interesting because changes in phase plots are more appreciable than frequency-shift. Further calculations as well as experimental tests will support future developments of this smart strategy.

Keywords: pantograph models, phase plots, structural health monitoring, damage detection

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Authors: George Ogono Muok, N. Obange, S. A. Odhiambo

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Empirical literature on the determinants of foreign direct investments (FDI) flows is extensive but controversial over some determinants of FDI in-flows in developing countries. The objective of this study therefore was to investigate the overall determinants of FDI inflows in Kenya. Dynamic macroeconomic theory and correlational study design provided theoretical framework for specification of a time series model. The study used data observed from 1970 to 2015 in World Development Indicators (WDI) data bank. The results show that annual growth rate of GDP, inflation rates and external debt as a proportion of GDP are significant determinants of FDI inflows in Kenya and are therefore important macroeconomic parameters for policy formulation for promotion of FDI inflows in Kenya.

Keywords: determinants of foreign, direct, investment inflows in, Kenya, Africa

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Authors: Somayeh Lotfi, Manuel Eggimann, Eckhard Wagner, Radosław Mróz, Jan Deja

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One of the main environmental challenges in the construction industry is a strong social force to decrease the bulk transport of the building materials in urban environments. Considering this fact, applying more in-situ recycling technologies for Construction and Demolition Waste (CDW) is an urgent need. The European C2CA project develops a novel concrete recycling technology that can be performed purely mechanically and in situ. The technology consists of a combination of smart demolition, gentle grinding of the crushed concrete in an autogenous mill, and a novel dry classification technology called ADR to remove the fines. The feasibility of this recycling process was examined in demonstration projects involving in total 20,000 tons of End of Life (EOL) concrete from two office towers in Groningen, The Netherlands. This paper concentrates on the second demonstration project of C2CA, where EOL concrete was recycled on an industrial site. After recycling, the properties of the produced Recycled Aggregate (RA) were investigated, and results are presented. An experimental study was carried out on mechanical and durability properties of produced Recycled Aggregate Concrete (RAC) compared to those of the Natural Aggregate Concrete (NAC). The aim was to understand the importance of RA substitution, w/c ratio and type of cement to the properties of RAC. In this regard, two series of reference concrete with strength classes of C25/30 and C45/55 were produced using natural coarse aggregates (rounded and crushed) and natural sand. The RAC series were created by replacing parts of the natural aggregate, resulting in series of concrete with 0%, 20%, 50% and 100% of RA. Results show that the concrete mix design and type of cement have a decisive effect on the properties of RAC. On the other hand, the substitution of RA even at a high percentage replacement level has a minor and manageable impact on the performance of RAC. This result is a good indication towards the feasibility of using RA in structural concrete by modifying the mix design and using a proper type of cement.

Keywords: C2CA, ADR, concrete recycling, recycled aggregate, durability

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Authors: Thuan Nguyen

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In the present time, data to a data-driven knowledge-based economy is the same as oil to the industrial age hundreds of years ago. Data is everywhere in vast volumes! Big data analytics is expected to help firms not only efficiently improve performance but also completely transform how they should run their business. However, employing the emergent technology successfully is not easy, and assessing the roles of big data in improving firm performance is even much harder. There was a lack of studies that have examined the impacts of big data analytics on organizational performance. This study aimed to fill the gap. The present study suggested using firms’ intellectual capital as a proxy for big data in evaluating its impact on organizational performance. The present study employed the Value Added Intellectual Coefficient method to measure firm intellectual capital, via its three main components: human capital efficiency, structural capital efficiency, and capital employed efficiency, and then used the structural equation modeling technique to model the data and test the models. The financial fundamental and market data of 100 randomly selected publicly listed firms were collected. The results of the tests showed that only human capital efficiency had a significant positive impact on firm profitability, which highlighted the prominent human role in the impact of big data technology.

Keywords: big data, big data analytics, intellectual capital, organizational performance, value added intellectual coefficient

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Authors: Zhang Kehan, Du Luona

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Wireless power transfer (WPT) systems have been widely investigated for advantages of convenience and safety compared to traditional plug-in charging systems. The research contents include impedance matching, circuit topology, transfer distance et al. for improving the efficiency of WPT system, which is a decisive factor in the practical application. What is more, coil structures such as spiral circular coil and helical coil with variable distance between two turns also have indispensable effects on the efficiency of WPT systems. This paper compares the efficiency of WPT systems utilizing spiral or helical coil with variable distance between two turns, and experimental results show that efficiency of spiral circular coil with an optimum distance between two turns is the highest. According to efficiency formula of resonant WPT system with series-series topology, we introduce M²/R₋₁ to measure the efficiency of spiral circular coil and helical coil WPT system. If the distance between two turns s is too close, proximity effect theory shows that the induced current in the conductor, caused by a variable flux created by the current flows in the skin of vicinity conductor, is the opposite direction of source current and has assignable impart on coil resistance. Thus in two coil structures, s affects coil resistance. At the same time, when the distance between primary and secondary coils is not variable, s can also make the influence on M to some degrees. The aforementioned study proves that s plays an indispensable role in changing M²/R₋₁ and then can be adjusted to find the optimum value with which WPT system achieves the highest efficiency. In actual application situations of WPT systems especially in underwater vehicles, miniaturization is one vital issue in designing WPT system structures. Limited by system size, the largest external radius of spiral circular coil is 100 mm, and the largest height of helical coil is 40 mm. In other words, the turn of coil N changes with s. In spiral circular and helical structures, the distance between each two turns in secondary coil is set as a constant value 1 mm to guarantee that the R2 is not variable. Based on the analysis above, we set up spiral circular coil and helical coil model using COMSOL to analyze the value of M²/R₋₁ when the distance between each two turns in primary coil sp varies from 0 mm to 10 mm. In the two structure models, the distance between primary and secondary coils is 50 mm and wire diameter is chosen as 1.5 mm. The turn of coil in secondary coil are 27 in helical coil model and 20 in spiral circular coil model. The best value of s in helical coil structure and spiral circular coil structure are 1 mm and 2 mm respectively, in which the value of M²/R₋₁ is the largest. It is obviously to select spiral circular coil as the first choice to design the WPT system for that the value of M²/R₋₁ in spiral circular coil is larger than that in helical coil under the same condition.

Keywords: distance between two turns, helical coil, spiral circular coil, wireless power transfer

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Authors: Aniruddha Joshi

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This paper discusses a simulation study of automated sand casting production system. Therefore, the first aims of this study is development of automated sand casting process model and analyze this model with a simulation software Witness. Production methodology aims to improve overall productivity through elimination of wastes and that leads to improve quality. Integration of automation with Simulation is beneficial to identify the obstacles in implementation and to take appropriate options to implement successfully. For this integration, there are different Simulation Software’s. To study this integration, with the help of “WITNESS” Simulation Software the model is created. This model is based on literature review. The input parameters are Setup Time, Number of machines, cycle time and output parameter is number of castings, avg, and time and percentage usage of machines. Obtained results are used for Statistical Analysis. This analysis concludes the optimal solution to get maximum output.

Keywords: automated sand casting production system, simulation, WITNESS software, performance evaluation

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Authors: M. R. Martinez-Torres, S. L. Toral, M. Olmedilla

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Typically, virtual communities exhibit the well-known phenomenon of participation inequality, which means that only a small percentage of users is responsible of the majority of contributions. However, the sustainability of the community requires that the group of active users must be continuously nurtured with new users that gain expertise through a participation process. This paper analyzes the time evolution of Open Source Software (OSS) communities, considering users that join/abandon the community over time and several topological properties of the network when modeled as a social network. More specifically, the paper analyzes the role of those users rejoining the community and their influence in the global characteristics of the network.

Keywords: open source communities, social network Analysis, time series, virtual communities

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Authors: Daniel Y. Abebe, Jeonghyun Jang, Jaehyouk Choi

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This study aims to evaluate the effective size, section and structural characteristics of circular hollow steel (CHS) damper. CHS damper is among steel dampers which are used widely for seismic energy dissipation because they are easy to install, maintain and are inexpensive. CHS damper dissipates seismic energy through metallic deformation due to the geometrical elasticity of circular shape and fatigue resistance around connection part. After calculating the effective size, which is found to be height to diameter ratio of √("3"), nonlinear FE analyses were carried out to evaluate the structural characteristics and effective section (diameter-to-ratio).

Keywords: circular hollow steel damper, structural characteristics, effective size, effective section, large deformation, FE analysis

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Authors: Yeo Kyeong Lee, Hae Won Min, Ji Yeon Kang, Hee Sun Kim, Yeong Soo Shin

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Fire incidents have been steadily increased over the last year according to national emergency management agency of South Korea. Even though most of the fire incidents with property damage have been occurred in building, rehabilitation has not been properly done with consideration of structure safety. Therefore, this study aims at evaluating rehabilitation effects on fire damaged normal strength concrete beams through experiments and finite element analyses. For the experiments, reinforced concrete beams were fabricated having designed concrete strength of 21 MPa. Two different cover thicknesses were used as 40 mm and 50 mm. After cured, the fabricated beams were heated for 1hour or 2hours according to ISO-834 standard time-temperature curve. Rehabilitation was done by removing the damaged part of cover thickness and filling polymeric mortar into the removed part. Both fire damaged beams and rehabilitated beams were tested with four point loading system to observe structural behaviors and the rehabilitation effect. To verify the experiment, finite element (FE) models for structural analysis were generated using commercial software ABAQUS 6.10-3. For the rehabilitated beam models, integrated temperature-structural analyses were performed in advance to obtain geometries of the fire damaged beams. In addition to the fire damaged beam models, rehabilitated part was added with material properties of polymeric mortar. Three dimensional continuum brick elements were used for both temperature and structural analyses. The same loading and boundary conditions as experiments were implemented to the rehabilitated beam models and non-linear geometrical analyses were performed. Test results showed that maximum loads of the rehabilitated beams were 8~10% higher than those of the non-rehabilitated beams and even 1~6 % higher than those of the non-fire damaged beam. Stiffness of the rehabilitated beams were also larger than that of non-rehabilitated beams but smaller than that of the non-fire damaged beams. In addition, predicted structural behaviors from the analyses also showed good rehabilitation effect and the predicted load-deflection curves were similar to the experimental results. From this study, both experiments and analytical results demonstrated good rehabilitation effect on the fire damaged normal strength concrete beams. For the further, the proposed analytical method can be used to predict structural behaviors of rehabilitated and fire damaged concrete beams accurately without suffering from time and cost consuming experimental process.

Keywords: fire, normal strength concrete, rehabilitation, reinforced concrete beam

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Authors: Marinka K. Baghdasaryan, Siranush M. Muradyan, Avgen A. Gasparyan

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Analytical expressions of the current and angular errors, as well as the frequency characteristics of an induction converter describing the relation with its structural parameters, the core and winding characteristics are obtained. Based on estimation of the dependences obtained, a mathematical problem of parametric optimization is formulated which can successfully be used for investigation and diagnosing an induction converter.

Keywords: induction converters, magnetic circuit material, current and angular errors, frequency response, mathematical formulation, structural parameters

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Authors: Feng Guo

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Human brain organoids, 3D brain tissue cultures derived from human pluripotent stem cells, hold promising potential in modeling neuroinflammation for a variety of neurological diseases. However, challenges remain in generating standardized human brain organoids that can recapitulate key physiological features of a human brain. Here, this study presents a series of organoids-on-a-chip systems to generate better human brain organoids and model neuroinflammation. By employing 3D printing and microfluidic 3D cell culture technologies, the study’s systems enable the reliable, scalable, and reproducible generation of human brain organoids. Compared with conventional protocols, this study’s method increased neural progenitor proliferation and reduced heterogeneity of human brain organoids. As a proof-of-concept application, the study applied this method to model substance use disorders.

Keywords: human brain organoids, microfluidics, organ-on-a-chip, neuroinflammation

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Authors: S. Louhibi-Fasla, H. Rekab Djabri, H. Achour

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The aim of this work is to investigate the structural phase-transitions and electronic properties of copper halides. Our calculations were performed within the PLW extension to the first principle FPLMTO method, which enables an accurate treatment of all kinds of structures including the open ones. Results are given for lattice parameters, bulk modulus and its first derivatives in five different surface phases, and are compared with the available theoretical and experimental data. In the zinc-blende (B3) and PbO (B10) phases, the fundamental gap remains direct with both the top of VB and the bottom of CB located at Γ.

Keywords: FPLMTO, structural properties, Copper halides, phase transitions, ground state phase

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Authors: Yujiang Wu

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As electrical machine (e-machine) power density re-querulents become more stringent in vehicle electrification, mounting a temperature sensor for e-machine stator windings becomes increasingly difficult. This can lead to higher manufacturing costs, complicated harnesses, and reduced reliability. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning method for predicting electric machine winding temperature, which can either replace the sensor entirely or serve as a backup to the existing sensor. We compare the performance of our method, the stateful long short-term memory networks (LSTM) with truncated backpropagation through time (TBTT), with that of linear regression, as well as stateless LSTM with/without residual connection. Our results demonstrate the strength of combining stateful LSTM and TBTT in tackling nonlinear time series prediction problems with long sequence lengths. Additionally, in industrial applications, high-temperature region prediction accuracy is more important because winding temperature sensing is typically used for derating machine power when the temperature is high. To evaluate the performance of our algorithm, we developed a temperature-stratified MSE. We propose a simple but effective data preprocessing trick to improve the high-temperature region prediction accuracy. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in accurately predicting winding temperature, particularly in high-temperature regions, while also reducing manufacturing costs and improving reliability.

Keywords: deep learning, electrical machine, functional safety, long short-term memory networks (LSTM), thermal management, time series prediction

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Authors: Eva Nedeliakova, Juraj Camaj, Jaroslav Masek

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This contribution is focused on the methodology for identifying levels of quality and improving quality through new logistics model in railway transport. It is oriented on the application of dynamic quality models, which represent an innovative method of evaluation quality services. Through this conception, time factor, expected, and perceived quality in each moment of the transportation process within logistics chain can be taken into account. Various models describe the improvement of the quality which emphases the time factor throughout the whole transportation logistics chain. Quality of services in railway transport can be determined by the existing level of service quality, by detecting the causes of dissatisfaction employees but also customers, to uncover strengths and weaknesses. This new logistics model is able to recognize critical processes in logistic chain. It includes service quality rating that must respect its specific properties, which are unrepeatability, impalpability, their use right at the time they are provided and particularly changeability, which is significant factor in the conditions of rail transport as well. These peculiarities influence the quality of service regarding the constantly increasing requirements and that result in new ways of finding progressive attitudes towards the service quality rating.

Keywords: logistics model, quality, railway transport

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Authors: Ashika Govender

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This study seeks to determine whether Okun’s Law is valid for the South African economy, using time series data for the period 2004 to 2014. The data were accessed from the South African Reserve Bank and Stats SA. The stationarity of the variables was analysed by applying unit root tests via the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF), the Phillips-Perron (PP) test, and the Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin test (KPSS) test. The study used an ordinary least square (OLS) model in analysing the dynamic version of Okun’s law. The Error Correction Model (ECM) was used to analyse the short-run impact of GDP growth on unemployment, as well as the speed of adjustment. The results indicate a short run and long run relationship between unemployment rate and GDP growth rate in period 2004q1-2014q4, suggesting that Okun’s law is valid for the South African economy. With a 1 percent increase in GDP, unemployment can decrease by 0.13 percent, ceteris paribus. The research culminates in important policy recommendations, highlighting the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in the spirit of the National Development Plan.

Keywords: unemployment, economic growth, Okun's law, South Africa

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Authors: Michael Zenker, Henrik Prinzhorn, Christian Böning, Tom Strating

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Large-scale products are often assembled according to the job-site principle, meaning that during the assembly the product is located at a fixed position, while the area requirements are constantly changing. On one hand, the product itself is growing with each assembly step, whereas varying areas for storage, machines or working areas are temporarily required. This is an important factor when arranging products to be assembled within the factory. Currently, it is common to reserve a fixed area for each product to avoid overlaps or collisions with the other assemblies. Intending to be large enough to include the product and all adjacent areas, this reserved area corresponds to the superposition of the maximum extents of all required areas of the product. In this procedure, the reserved area is usually poorly utilized over the course of the entire assembly process; instead a large part of it remains unused. If the available area is a limited resource, a systematic arrangement of the products, which complies with the dynamic area requirements, will lead to an increased area utilization and productivity. This paper presents the results of a study on the arrangement of assembly objects assuming dynamic, competing area requirements. First, the problem situation is extensively explained, and existing research on associated topics is described and evaluated on the possibility of an adaptation. Then, a newly developed mathematical optimization model is introduced. This model allows an optimal arrangement of dynamic areas, considering logical and practical constraints. Finally, in order to quantify the potential of the developed method, some test series results are presented, showing the possible increase in area utilization.

Keywords: dynamic area requirements, facility layout problem, optimization model, product assembly

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Authors: Gabriel Woldu, Maria Sassi

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Coffee performs a pivotal role in Ethiopia's GDP, revenue, employment, domestic demand, and export earnings. Ethiopia's coffee production and exports show high variability in the amount of production and export earnings. Despite being the continent's fifth-largest coffee producer, Ethiopia has not developed its ability to shine as a major exporter in the globe's green coffee exports. Ethiopian coffee exports were not stable and had high volume and earnings fluctuations. The main aim of this study was to analyze the dynamics of the export of coffee variation to different importing nations using a first-order Markov Chain model. 14 years of time-series data has been used to examine the direction and structural change in the export of coffee. A compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was used to determine the annual growth rate in the coffee export quantity, value, and per-unit price over the study period. The major export markets for Ethiopian coffee were Germany, Japan, and the USA, which were more stable, while countries such as France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia were less stable and had low retention rates for Ethiopian coffee. The study, therefore, recommends that Ethiopia should again revitalize its market to France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia, as these countries are the major coffee-consuming countries in the world to boost its export stake to the global coffee markets in the future. In order to further enhance export stability, the Ethiopian Government and other stakeholders in the coffee sector should have to work on reducing the volatility of coffee output and exports in order to improve production and quality efficiency, so that stabilize markets as well as to make the product attractive and price competitive in the importing countries.

Keywords: coffee, CAGR, Markov chain, direction of trade, Ethiopia

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Authors: W. C. Bracken

Abstract:

Given that concrete masonry walls are expected to experience shrinkage combined with thermal expansion and contraction, and in some cases even carbonation, throughout their service life, cracking is to be expected. However, after concrete masonry walls have been placed into service, originally anticipated and accounted for cracking is often misdiagnosed as a structural defect. Such misdiagnoses often result in or are used to support litigation. This paper begins by discussing the causes and types of anticipated cracking within concrete masonry walls followed by a discussion on the processes and analyses that exists for properly evaluating them and their significance. From here, the paper then presents a case of misdiagnosed concrete masonry cracking and the flawed logic employed to support litigation.

Keywords: concrete masonry, masonry wall cracking, structural defect, structural damage, construction defect, forensic investigation

Procedia PDF Downloads 242

Authors: Bo Yan, Amy Y. M. Chow

Abstract:

Bereavement is recognized as a universal challenging experience. It is important to gather research evidence on protective factors in bereavement. Hope is considered as one of the protective factors in previous coping studies. The present study aims to add knowledge by investigating hope at the first month after death to predict psychological symptoms altogether including complicated grief (CG), anxiety, and depressive symptoms at the seventh month. The data were collected via one-on-one interview survey in a longitudinal project with Hong Kong hospice users (sample size 105). Most participants were at their middle age (49-year-old on average), female (72%), with no religious affiliation (58%). Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling (BSEM) analysis was conducted on the longitudinal dataset. The BSEM findings show that hope at the first month of bereavement negatively predicts both CG and anxiety symptoms at the seventh month but not for depressive symptoms. Age and gender are controlled in the model. The overall model fit is good. The current study findings suggest assessing hope at the first month of bereavement. Hope at the first month after the loss is identified as an excellent predictor for complicated grief and anxiety symptoms at the seventh month. The result from this sample is clear, so it encourages cross-cultural research on replicated modeling and development of further clinical application. Particularly, practical consideration for early intervention to increase the level of hope has the potential to reduce the psychological symptoms and thus to improve the bereaved persons’ wellbeing in the long run.

Keywords: anxiety, complicated grief, depressive symptoms, hope, structural equational modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 199