Search results for: schedule risk management

Authors: Weiming Hu, Xu Li, Xiaonan Li, Zhong Xu, Li Yuan, Xuan Dong

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Maneuver decision-making plays a critical role in high-performance intelligent driving. This paper proposes a risk assessment-based decision-making network (RADMN) to address the problem of driving strategy for the commercial vehicle. RADMN integrates two networks, aiming at identifying the risk degree of collision and rollover and providing decisions to ensure the effectiveness and reliability of driving strategy. In the risk assessment module, risk degrees of the backward collision, forward collision and rollover are quantified for hazard recognition. In the decision module, a deep reinforcement learning based on multi-objective optimization (DRL-MOO) algorithm is designed, which comprehensively considers the risk degree and motion states of each traffic participant. To evaluate the performance of the proposed framework, Prescan/Simulink joint simulation was conducted in highway scenarios. Experimental results validate the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed RADMN. The output driving strategy can guarantee the safety and provide key technical support for the realization of autonomous driving of commercial vehicles.

Keywords: decision-making strategy, risk assessment, multi-objective optimization, commercial vehicle

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Authors: Paschal Ohalehi

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Purpose - The purpose of this paper, which is part of a PhD thesis is to examine the role of risk based approach in minimising financial crime in the charity sector as well as offer recommendations to improving the quality of charity regulation whilst still retaining risk based approach as a regulatory framework and also making a case for a new regulatory model. Increase in financial crimes in the charity sector has put the role of regulation in minimising financial crime up for debates amongst researchers and practitioners. Although previous research has addressed the regulation of charities, research on the role of risk based approach to minimising financial crime in the charity sector is limited. Financial crime is a concern for all organisation including charities. Design/methodology/approach - This research adopts a social constructionist’s epistemological position. This research is carried out using semi structured in-depth interviews amongst randomly selected 24 charity trustees divided into three classes: 10 small charities, 10 medium charities and 4 large charities. The researcher also interviewed 4 stakeholders (NFA, Charity Commission and two different police forces in terms of size and area of coverage) in the charity sector. Findings - The results of this research show that reliance on risk based approach to financial crime in the sector is weak and fragmented with the research pointing to a clear evidence of disconnect between the regulator and the regulated leading to little or lack of regulation of trustees’ activities, limited monitoring of charities and lack of training and awareness on financial crime in the sector. Originality – This paper shows how regulation of charities in general and risk based approach in particular can be improved in order to meet the expectations of the stakeholders, the public, the regulator and the regulated.

Keywords: risk, risk based approach, financial crime, fraud, self-regulation

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Authors: Marwa Abdussalam

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Breastfeeding is a unique emotional bond between a mother and their offspring. Though breastfeeding may be natural, it is not something mothers are born with; some still struggle to breastfeed their babies. Various factors can influence the breastfeeding experience, such as the mode of delivery, the mother’s health condition, proper latching, etc. In addition, psychological factors have been known to influence breastfeeding ability, duration, and milk supply. Some mothers struggle to breastfeed their babies because they perceive they have a low milk supply and or don’t have the ability to breastfeed their babies. Most of these perceptions result either from their own past experience or from the ‘comments’ of their caregivers. So, it is of utmost essential to understand such psychological factors affecting breastfeeding so that necessary steps can be taken to educate breastfeeding mothers. The study explored the role of psychological factors that affect breastfeeding. Data were collected from fifteen breastfeeding mothers using a semi-structured interview schedule. A total of 10 questions were included in the interview schedule. Questions were sequenced in a funnel pattern, beginning with open-ended questions and then moving on to close-ended questions. Data were analyzed using Braun and Clarke’s Thematic Analysis technique. This technique involves identifying the codes, generating themes, naming them, and finally reviewing them. Results indicated that breastfeeding self-efficacy perceived insufficient milk supply, and lack of knowledge were the psychological factors affecting breastfeeding. The results of this study can be used to help mothers who are struggling with breastfeeding by developing interventions aimed at improving breastfeeding self-efficacy.

Keywords: breastfeeding, breastfeeding self-efficacy, perceived insufficient milk supply, Thematic Analysis

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Authors: Herng-Sheng Lee, Chi-Yi Chen, Wan-Ting Huang, Li-Jen Chang, Solomon Chih-Cheng Chen, Hsin-Yi Yang

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A variety of gastrointestinal disorders, such as Crohn’s disease, ulcerative colitis, and coeliac disease, are recognized as risk factors for osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures. One recent study suggests that individuals with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) might also be at increased risk of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures. Up to now, the association between IBS and the risk of fractures at different anatomic sites occurrences is not completely clear. We conducted a population-based cohort analysis to investigate the fracture risk of IBS in comparison with non-IBS group. We identified 29,505 adults aged ≥ 20 years with newly diagnosed IBS using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database in 2000-2012. A comparison group was constructed of patients without IBS who were matched according to gender and age. The occurrence of fracture was monitored until the end of 2013. We analyzed the risk of fracture events to occur in IBS by using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Patients with IBS had a higher incidence of osteoporotic fractures compared with non-IBS group (12.34 versus 9.45 per 1,000 person-years) and an increased risk of osteoporotic fractures (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.27, 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 1.20 – 1.35). Site specific analysis showed that the IBS group had a higher risk of fractures for spine, forearm, hip and hand than did the non-IBS group. With further stratification for gender and age, a higher aHR value for osteoporotic fractures in IBS group was seen across all age groups in males, but seen in elderly females. In addition, female, elderly, low income, hypertension, coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, and depressive disorders as independent osteoporotic fracture risk factors in IBS patients. The IBS is considered as a risk factor for osteoporotic fractures, particularly in female individuals and fracture sites located at the spine, forearm, hip and hand.

Keywords: irritable bowel syndrome, fracture, gender difference, longitudinal health insurance database, public health

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Authors: Daniel Alfonso Reséndiz-García, Luis Antonio García-Villanueva

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As a result of the high industrial activity, which arises from the search to satisfy the needs of products and services for society, several chemical accidents have occurred, causing serious damage to different sectors: human, economic, infrastructure and environmental losses. Historically, with the study of this chemical accidents, it has been determined that the causes are mainly due to human errors (inexperienced personnel, negligence, lack of maintenance and deficient risk analysis). The industries have the aim to increase production and reduce costs. However, it should be kept in mind that the costs involved in risk studies, implementation of barriers and safety systems is much cheaper than paying for the possible damages that could occur in the event of an accident, without forgetting that there are things that cannot be replaced, such as human lives.Therefore, it is of utmost importance to implement risk studies in all industries, which provide information for prevention and planning. The aim of this study is to compare risk methodologies by identifying the consequences of accidents related to the storage of flammable, dangerous goods for decision making and emergency response.The methodologies considered in this study are qualitative and quantitative risk analysis and consequence analysis. The latter, by means of modeling software, which provides radius of affectation and the possible scope and magnitude of damages.By using risk analysis, possible scenarios of occurrence of chemical accidents in the storage of flammable substances are identified. Once the possible risk scenarios have been identified, the characteristics of the substances, their storage and atmospheric conditions are entered into the software.The results provide information that allows the implementation of prevention, detection, control, and combat elements for emergency response, thus having the necessary tools to avoid the occurrence of accidents and, if they do occur, to significantly reduce the magnitude of the damage.This study highlights the importance of risk studies applying tools that best suited to each case study. It also proves the importance of knowing the risk exposure of industrial activities for a better prevention, planning and emergency response.

Keywords: chemical accidents, emergency response, flammable substances, risk analysis, modeling

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Authors: A. A. Adebayo, A. O. Ogunkeyede, A. O. Adeigbe

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Digital globalisation and yarn of Nigeria society to overcome the digital divide have resulted in contamination of soil by heavy metals (HMs) from e-waste activities at Alaba international market, Lagos, Nigeria. The aim of this research was to determine the concentration of various metals {Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Copper (Cu), and Lead (Pb)} and identify their ecological and health risks for the people within the study area. A total of 60 soil samples were collected at Alaba market study area. Two types of samples were collected from each sampling points: topsoil (0-15 cm), subsoil (15 -30 cm). The metal concentration results showed that the soils were heavily contaminated by HMs at topsoil and subsoil. The geoaccummulation and ecological risk indices revealed high pollution level from all studied site. The health risk assessment results suggested that there is high possibility of carcinogenic risk to humans because the carcinogenic risk via corresponding exposure pathways exceeded the safety limit of 10-6 (the acceptable level of carcinogenic risk for human). Furthermore, inhalation of soil particles is the main exposure pathway for Cr to enter the human body for all ages. Children in the vicinity are exposed more to ingestion of Pb since they tend to eat earth (pica) and repeatedly suck their fingers. This study provides basic information to create awareness for a need to introduce pollution control measures and the need to protect the ecosystem and human health within the study area at Alaba international market.

Keywords: contaminated soil, ecological risk, hazard index, risk factor, exposure pathways, heavy metals

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Authors: Madeleine Cox

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Objective; analyse patient choices in management of first trimester miscarriage, rates of complications including repeat procedure. Design: all first trimester miscarriages from a tertiary institution on the Gold Coast in a 6 month time frame (July to December 2021) were reviewed, including choice of management, histopathology, any representations or admissions, and potential complications. Results: a total of 224 first trimester miscarriages were identified. Of these, 183 (81%) opted to have surgical management in the first instance. Of the remaining patients, 18 (8%) opted to have medical management, and 28 (12.5%) opted to have expectant management. In total, 33(15%) patients required a repeat treatment for retained products. 1 had medical management for a small volume PROC post suction curette. A significant number of these patients initially opted for medical management but then elected to have shorter follow up than usual and went on to have retained products noted. 5 women who had small volumes of RPOC post medical or surgical management had repeat suction curette, however, had very small volumes of products on scan and on curette and may have had a good result with repeated misoprostol administration. It is important to note that whilst a common procedure, suction curettes are not without risk. 2 women had significant blood loss of 1L and 1.5L. A third women had a uterine perforation, a rare but recognised complication, she went on to require a laparoscopy which identified a small serosal bowel injury which was closed by the colorectal team. Conclusion: Management of first trimester miscarriage should be guided by patient preference. It is important to be able to provide patients with their choice of management, however, it is also important to have a good understanding of the risks of each management choice, chances of repeated procedure, appropriate time frame for follow up. Women who choose to undertake medical or expectant management should be supported through this time, with appropriate time frame between taking misoprostol and repeat scan so that the true effects can be evaluated. Patients returning for scans within 2-3 days are more likely to be booked for further surgery, however, may reflect patients who did not have adequate counselling or simply changed their mind on their preferred management options.

Keywords: miscarriage, gynaecology, obstetrics, first trimester

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Authors: Michael Scott Evans, Andrew Smith

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The feeling of fatigue at work could potentially have devastating consequences. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the well-established objective indicator of fatigue – the Fatigue Risk Index (FRI) calculator used by the rail industry is an effective indicator to the number of safety incidents, in which fatigue could have been a contributing factor. The study received ethics approval from Cardiff University’s Ethics Committee (EC.16.06.14.4547). A total of 901 safety incidents were recorded from a single British rail franchise between 1st June 2010 – 31st December 2016, into the Safety Management Information System (SMIS). The safety incident types identified that fatigue could have been a contributing factor were: Signal Passed at Danger (SPAD), Train Protection & Warning System (TPWS) activation, Automatic Warning System (AWS) slow to cancel, failed to call, and station overrun. From the 901 recorded safety incidents, the scheduling system CrewPlan was used to extract the Fatigue Index (FI) score and Risk Index (RI) score of all train drivers on the day of the safety incident. Only the working rosters of 64.2% (N = 578) (550 men and 28 female) ranging in age from 24 – 65 years old (M = 47.13, SD = 7.30) were accessible for analyses. Analysis from all 578 train drivers who were involved in safety incidents revealed that 99.8% (N = 577) of Fatigue Index (FI) scores fell within or below the identified guideline threshold of 45 as well as 97.9% (N = 566) of Risk Index (RI) scores falling below the 1.6 threshold range. Their scores represent good practice within the rail industry. These findings seem to indicate that the current objective indicator, i.e. the FRI calculator used in this study by the British rail franchise was not an effective predictor of train driver’s FI scores and RI scores, as safety incidents in which fatigue could have been a contributing factor represented only 0.2% of FI scores and 2.1% of RI scores. Further research is needed to determine whether there are other contributing factors that could provide a better indication as to why there is such a significantly large proportion of train drivers who are involved in safety incidents, in which fatigue could have been a contributing factor have such low FI and RI scores.

Keywords: fatigue risk index calculator, objective indicator of fatigue, rail industry, safety incident

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Authors: Yo Fukutani, Shuji Moriguchi, Takuma Kotani, Terada Kenjiro

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If risk management of the assets owned by companies, risk assessment of real estate portfolio, and risk identification of the entire region are to be implemented, it is necessary to consider simultaneous damage to multiple buildings. In this research, the Sagami Trough earthquake tsunami that could have a significant effect on the Japanese capital region is focused on, and a method is proposed for simultaneous damage assessment using copulas that can take into consideration the correlation of tsunami depths and building damage between two sites. First, the tsunami inundation depths at two sites were simulated by using a nonlinear long-wave equation. The tsunamis were simulated by varying the slip amount (five cases) and the depths (five cases) for each of 10 sources of the Sagami Trough. For each source, the frequency distributions of the tsunami inundation depth were evaluated by using the response surface method. Then, Monte-Carlo simulation was conducted, and frequency distributions of tsunami inundation depth were evaluated at the target sites for all sources of the Sagami Trough. These are marginal distributions. Kendall’s tau for the tsunami inundation simulation at two sites was 0.83. Based on this value, the Gaussian copula, t-copula, Clayton copula, and Gumbel copula (n = 10,000) were generated. Then, the simultaneous distributions of the damage rate were evaluated using the marginal distributions and the copulas. For the correlation of the tsunami inundation depth at the two sites, the expected value hardly changed compared with the case of no correlation, but the damage rate of the ninety-ninth percentile value was approximately 2%, and the maximum value was approximately 6% when using the Gumbel copula.

Keywords: copulas, Monte-Carlo simulation, probabilistic risk assessment, tsunamis

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Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker

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Differences in commercial, professional and personal cultural traditions between western consultants and project sponsors in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region are potentially significant in the workplace, and this can impact on project outcomes. These cultural differences can, for example, result in conflict amongst senior managers, which can negatively impact the megaproject. New entrants to the GCC often experience ‘culture shock’ as they attempt to integrate into their unfamiliar environments. Megaprojects are unique ventures with individual project characteristics, which need to be considered when managing their associated risks. Megaproject research to date has mostly ignored the significance of the absence of cultural congruence in the GCC, which is surprising considering that there are large volumes of megaprojects in various stages of construction in the GCC. An initial step to dealing with cultural issues is to acknowledge culture as a significant risk factor (SRF). This paper seeks to understand the criticality for western consultants to address these risks. It considers the cultural barriers that exist between GCC sponsors and western consultants and examines the cultural distance between the key actors. Initial findings suggest the presence to a certain extent of ethnocentricity. Other cultural clashes arise out of a lack of appreciation of the customs, practices and traditions of ‘the Other’, such as the need for avoiding public humiliation and the hierarchal significance rankings. The concept and significance of cultural shock as part of the integration process for new arrivals are considered. Culture shock describes the state of anxiety and frustration resulting from the immersion in a culture distinctly different from one's own. There are potentially substantial project risks associated with underestimating the process of cultural integration. This paper examines two distinct but intertwined issues: the societal and professional culture differences associated with expatriate assignments. A case study examines the cultural congruences between GCC sponsors and American, British and German consultants, over a ten-year cycle. This provides indicators as to which nationalities encountered the most profound cultural issues and the nature of these. GCC megaprojects are typically intensive fast track demanding ventures, where consultant turnover is high. The study finds that building trust-filled relationships is key to successful project team integration and therefore, to successful megaproject execution. Findings indicate that both professional and social inclusion processes have steep learning curves. Traditional risk management practice is to approach any uncertainty in a structured way to mitigate the potential impact on project outcomes. This research highlights cultural risk as a significant factor in the management of GCC megaprojects. These risks arising from high staff turnover typically include loss of project knowledge, delays to the project, cost and disruption in replacing staff. This paper calls for cultural risk to be recognised as an SRF, as the first step to developing risk management strategies, and to reduce staff turnover for western consultants in GCC megaprojects.

Keywords: western consultants in megaprojects, national culture impacts on GCC megaprojects, significant risk factors in megaprojects, professional culture in megaprojects

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Authors: Athdath Waduge Susantha Janaka Kumara, Xiefei Zhi, Zin Mie Mie Sein

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Understanding the air temperature variability is crucially important for disaster risk reduction and management. In this study, we used 15 synoptic meteorological stations to assess the spatiotemporal variability of air temperature over Sri Lanka during 1972–2021. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF), Principal component analysis (PCA), Mann-Kendall test, power spectrum analysis and correlation coefficient analysis were used to investigate the long-term trends of air temperature and their possible relation to sea surface temperature (SST) over the region. The results indicate that an increasing trend in air temperature was observed with the abrupt climate change noted in the year 1994. The spatial distribution of EOF1 (63.5%) shows the positive and negative loading dipole patterns from south to northeast, while EOF2 (23.4%) explains warmer (colder) in some parts of central (south and east) areas. The power spectrum of PC1 (PC2) indicates that there is a significant period of 3-4 years (quasi-2 years). Moreover, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) provides a strong positive correlation with the air temperature of Sri Lanka, while the EL Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) presents a weak negative correlation. Therefore, IOD events led to higher temperatures in the region. This study’s findings can help disaster risk reduction and management in the country.

Keywords: air temperature, interannaul variability, ENSO, IOD

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Authors: Onur Arugaslan, Ajay Samant, Devrim Yaman

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Financial advisors and investors seek new assets which could potentially increase portfolio returns and decrease portfolio risk. Cryptocurrencies represent a relatively new asset class which could serve in both these roles. There has been very little research done in the area of the risk/return tradeoff in a portfolio consisting of fixed income assets, stocks, and cryptocurrency. The objective of this study is a rigorous examination of this issue. The data used in the study are the monthly returns on 4-week US Treasury Bills, S&P Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Stock Index. The methodology used in the study is the application Modern Portfolio Theory to evaluate the risk-adjusted returns of portfolios with varying combinations of these assets, using Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen Indexes, as well as the Sortino and Modigliani measures. The results of the study would include the ranking of various investment portfolios based on their risk/return characteristics. The conclusions of the study would include objective empirical inference for investors who are interested in including cryptocurrency in their asset portfolios but are unsure of the risk/return implications.

Keywords: financial economics, portfolio diversification, fixed income securities, cryptocurrency, stock indexes

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Authors: M. Bokhtiar Hasan, M. Delowar Hossain, Abu N. M. Wahid

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The principal aim of the study is to find out a way to effectively manage the agricultural risks like price volatility, weather risks, and fund shortage. To hedge price volatility, farmers sometimes make contracts with agro-traders but fail to protect themselves effectively due to not having legal framework for such contracts. The study extensively reviews existing literature and find evidence that the majority studies either deal with price volatility or weather risks. If we could address these risks through a single model, it would be more useful to both the farmers and traders. Intrinsically, the authors endeavor in this regard, and the key contribution of this study basically lies in it. Initially, we conduct a small survey aspiring to identify the shortcomings of existing contracts. Later, we propose a model encompassing forward and insurance contracts together where forward contract will be used to hedge price volatility and insurance contract will be used to protect weather risks. Contribution/Originality: The study adds to the existing literature through proposing an integrated model comprising of forward contract and crop insurance which will support both farmers and traders to cope with the agricultural risks like price volatility, weather hazards, and fund shortage. JEL Classifications: O13, Q13

Keywords: agriculture, forward contract, insurance contract, risk management, model

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Authors: Princess Ncube

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In the context of South Africa's banking sector, the prevention of bank failures is of paramount importance to ensure financial stability and economic growth. This paper focuses on the role of regulatory frameworks in safeguarding the resilience of South African banks and mitigating the risks of failures. It aims to assess the effectiveness of existing regulatory measures and proposes strategies to enhance the resilience of financial institutions in the country. The paper begins by examining the specific regulatory frameworks in place in South Africa, including capital adequacy requirements, stress testing methodologies, risk management guidelines, and supervisory practices. It delves into the evolution of these measures in response to lessons learned from past financial crises and their relevance in the unique South African banking landscape. Drawing on empirical evidence and case studies specific to South Africa, this paper evaluates the effectiveness of regulatory frameworks in preventing bank failures within the country. It analyses the impact of these frameworks on crucial aspects such as early detection of distress signals, improvements in risk management practices, and advancements in corporate governance within South African financial institutions. Additionally, it explores the interplay between regulatory frameworks and the specific economic environment of South Africa, including the role of macroprudential policies in preventing systemic risks. Based on the assessment, this paper proposes recommendations to strengthen regulatory frameworks and enhance their effectiveness in bank failure prevention in South Africa. It explores avenues for refining existing regulations to align capital requirements with the risk profiles of South African banks, enhancing stress testing methodologies to capture specific vulnerabilities, and fostering better coordination among regulatory authorities within the country. Furthermore, it examines the potential benefits of adopting innovative approaches, such as leveraging technology and data analytics, to improve risk assessment and supervision in the South African banking sector.

Keywords: banks, resolution, liquidity, regulation

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Authors: Amanda R. R. Oliveira, Caio F. F. C. Cunha, Juan C. L. Junior, Amorim H. P. Junior

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Children deaths are traumatic events that most often can be prevented. The technology of prevention and intervention in cases of infant deaths is available at low cost and with solid evidence and favorable results, however, with low access cover. Weight is one of the main factors related to death in the neonatal period, so the newborns of low birth weight are a population at high risk of death in the neonatal period, especially early neonatal period. This paper describes the development of a model based in neural network analysis to predict the mortality risk rating in the early neonatal period for newborns of low birth weight to identify the individuals of this population with increased risk of death. The neural network applied was trained with a set of newborns data obtained from Brazilian health system. The resulting network presented great success rate in identifying newborns with high chances of death, which demonstrates the potential for using this tool in an integrated manner to the health system, in order to direct specific actions for improving prognosis of newborns.

Keywords: low birth weight, neonatal death risk, neural network, newborn

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Authors: Laref Nabil

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Ecology is at the center of many debates and international regulations. It therefore becomes a necessity and a privileged axis in many countries policy. The rise of environmental problems, the particularism of the hospital as an actor Public Health must lead by example in hygiene, prevention of risks to man and his environment. In this, it seemed interesting to make a poster on hospital liquid effluents in order to know not only the regulatory aspects but also their degree of pollution and their management in health institutions. Materials and methods: Samples taken at several looks, analysis performed at STEP Reghaia Algiers. Discussion and / or findings: In general, central gaze analysis results of water we can conclude that the contents of the various physico-chemical parameters greatly exceed the standards. Although the hypothesis of assimilating hospital liquid effluents domestic waters is confirmed, the liquid effluent from the University Hospital of Beni Messous and dumped in the natural environment still represent ecotoxicological risk.

Keywords: health, hospital, liquid effluents, water

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Authors: Jennifer Reese, Josh Biber, Howard Weeks, Rachel Hess

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Aim: The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Screen (EPDS) is a mental health screening for pregnant women that has been widely used over the last 30 years. This screen is typically given in clinic on paper to patients throughout pregnancy and postpartum. The screen helps identify patients who may be at risk for pregnancy related depression or postpartum depression. In early 2016, University of Utah Health implemented an electronic version of the EPDS as well as the PROMIS Depression v1.0 instrument for all pregnant and postpartum patients. We asked patients both instruments to understand coverage of patients identified as at risk for each instrument. Methods: The EPDS is currently administered as part of our PRO template for pregnant and postpartum women. We also administer the PROMIS Depression as part of a standard PRO assessment to all patients. Patients are asked to complete an assessment no more often than every eight weeks. PRO assessments are either completed at home or in clinic with a tablet computer. Patients with a PROMIS score of ≥ 65 or a EPDS score of ≥ 10 were identified as at risk for depression Results: From April 2016 to April 2017, 1,330 unique patients were screened at University of Utah Health in OBGYN clinics with both the EPDS and PROMIS depression instrument on the same day. There were 28 (2.1%) patients were identified as at risk for depression using the PROMIS depression screen, while 262 (19.7%) patients were identified as at risk for postpartum depression using the EPDS screen. Overall, 27 (2%) patients were identified as at risk on both instruments. Conclusion: The EPDS identified a higher percent (19.7%) of patients at risk for depression when compared to the PROMIS depression (2.1%). Ninety-six percent of patients who screened positive on the PROMIS depression screen also screened positive on the EPDS screen. Mental health is an important component to a patient’s overall wellbeing. We want to ensure all patients, particularly pregnant or post-partum women, receive screening and treatment when necessary. A combination of screenings may be necessary to provide the overall best care for patients and to identify the highest percentage of patients at risk.

Keywords: patient reported outcomes, mental health, maternal, depression

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Authors: Brennan Lodge

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Amidst a complex regulatory landscape, Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) emerges as a transformative tool for Governance Risk and Compliance (GRC) officers. This paper details the application of RAG in synthesizing Large Language Models (LLMs) with external knowledge bases, offering GRC professionals an advanced means to adapt to rapid changes in compliance requirements. While the development for standalone LLM’s (Large Language Models) is exciting, such models do have their downsides. LLM’s cannot easily expand or revise their memory, and they can’t straightforwardly provide insight into their predictions, and may produce “hallucinations.” Leveraging a pre-trained seq2seq transformer and a dense vector index of domain-specific data, this approach integrates real-time data retrieval into the generative process, enabling gap analysis and the dynamic generation of compliance and risk management content. We delve into the mechanics of RAG, focusing on its dual structure that pairs parametric knowledge contained within the transformer model with non-parametric data extracted from an updatable corpus. This hybrid model enhances decision-making through context-rich insights, drawing from the most current and relevant information, thereby enabling GRC officers to maintain a proactive compliance stance. Our methodology aligns with the latest advances in neural network fine-tuning, providing a granular, token-level application of retrieved information to inform and generate compliance narratives. By employing RAG, we exhibit a scalable solution that can adapt to novel regulatory challenges and cybersecurity threats, offering GRC officers a robust, predictive tool that augments their expertise. The granular application of RAG’s dual structure not only improves compliance and risk management protocols but also informs the development of compliance narratives with pinpoint accuracy. It underscores AI’s emerging role in strategic risk mitigation and proactive policy formation, positioning GRC officers to anticipate and navigate the complexities of regulatory evolution confidently.

Keywords: cybersecurity, gen AI, retrieval augmented generation, cybersecurity defense strategies

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Authors: Muhammad Arzim Naim, Saiful Azhar Rosly, Mohamad Sahari Nordin

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The objective of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the rise of Shariah non-compliance risk that can bring Islamic banks to succumb to monetary loss. Prior literatures have never analyzed such risk in details despite lots of it arguing on the validity of some Shariah compliance products. The Shariah non-compliance risk in this context is looking to the potentially failure of the facility to stand from the court test say that if the banks bring it to the court for compensation from the defaulted clients. The risk may also arise if the customers refuse to make the financing payments on the grounds of the validity of the contracts, for example, when relinquishing critical requirement of Islamic contract such as ownership, the risk that may lead the banks to suffer loss when the customer invalidate the contract through the court. The impact of Shariah non-compliance risk to Islamic banks is similar to that of legal risks faced by the conventional banks. Both resulted into monetary losses to the banks respectively. In conventional banking environment, losses can be in the forms of summons paid to the customers if they won the case. In banking environment, this normally can be in very huge amount. However, it is right to mention that for Islamic banks, the subsequent impact to them can be rigorously big because it will affect their reputation. If the customers do not perceive them to be Shariah compliant, they will take their money and bank it in other places. This paper provides new insights of risks faced by credit intensive Islamic banks by providing a new extension of knowledge with regards to the Shariah non-compliance risk by identifying its individual components that directly affecting the risk together with empirical evidences. Not limited to the Islamic banking fraternities, the regulators and policy makers should be able to use findings in this paper to evaluate the components of the Shariah non-compliance risk and make the necessary actions. The paper is written based on Malaysia’s Islamic banking practices which may not directly related to other jurisdictions. Even though the focuses of this study is directly towards to the Bay Bithaman Ajil or popularly known as BBA (i.e. sale with deferred payments) financing modality, the result from this study may be applicable to other Islamic financing vehicles.

Keywords: Islamic banking, Islamic finance, Shariah Non-compliance risk, Bay Bithaman Ajil (BBA), principal axis factoring

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Authors: Shuji Fujimoto, Fumiko Kojima, Mika Shigematsu

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Biorisk management (Biosafety/Biosecurity) is required for anyone working in a clinical laboratory (including medical/clinical research laboratories) where infectious agents and potentially hazardous biological materials are examined/stored. Proper education and training based on international standards of biorisk management should be provided not only as a part of laboratory safety program in work place but also as a part of introductory training at educational institutions for continuity and to elevate overall baseline of the biorisk management. We reported results of the pilot study of biorisk management education for graduate students majored in laboratory diagnostics previously. However, postgraduate education is still late in their profession and the participants’ interview also revealed importance and demands of earlier biorisk management education for undergraduates. The aim of this study is to identify the need for biosafety/biosecurity education and training program which is designed for undergraduate students who are entering the profession in clinical microbiology. We modified the previous program to include more basic topics and explanations (risk management, principles of safe clinical lab practices, personal protective equipment, disinfection, disposal of biological substances) and provided incorporating in the routine educational system for faculty of medical sciences in Kyushu University. The results of the pre and post examinations showed that the knowledge of the students on biorisk control had developed effectively as a proof of effectiveness of the program even in the undergraduate students. Our study indicates that administrating the basic biorisk management program in the earlier stage of learning will add positive impact to the understanding of biosafety to the health professional education.

Keywords: biorisk management, biosafety, biosecurity, clinical microbiology, education for undergraduates

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Authors: Wisit Wichitkosoom

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Objective:The majority of the hisk-risk patients (ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), Acute cerebrovascular accident, Sepsis, Acute Traumatic patient ) are admitted to district or lacal hospitals (average 1-1.30 hr. from Udonthani general hospital, Northeastern province, Thailand) without proper facilities. The referral system was support to early care and early management at pre-hospital stage and prepare for the patient data to higher hospital. This study assessed the reduction in treatment delay achieved by pre-hospital diagnosis and referral directly to Udonthani General Hospital. Methods and results: Four district or local hospitals without proper facilities for treatment the very high-risk patient were serving the study region. Pre-hospital diagnoses were established with the simple technology such as LINE, SMS, telephone and Fax for concept of LEAN process and then the telemedicine, by ambulance monitoring (ECG, SpO2, BT, BP) in both real time and snapshot mode was administrated during the period of transfer for safety transfer concept (inter-hospital stage). The standard treatment for patients with STEMI, Intracranial injury and acute cerebrovascular accident were done. From 1 October 2012 to 30 September 2013, the 892 high-risk patients transported by ambulance and transferred to Udonthani general hospital were registered. Patients with STEMI diagnosed pre-hospitally and referred directly to the Udonthani general hospital with telemedicine closed monitor (n=248). The mortality rate decreased from 11.69% in 2011 to 6.92 in 2012. The 34 patients were arrested on the way and successful to CPR during transfer with the telemedicine consultation were 79.41%. Conclusion: The proper innovation could apply for health care system. The very high-risk patients must had the closed monitoring with two-way communication for the “safety transfer period”. It could modified to another high-risk group too.

Keywords: safety transfer, telemedicine, critical patients, medical and health sciences

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Authors: Athina Thanou, Eirini Eleni Tsiropoulou, Symeon Papavassiliou

Abstract:

The problem of museum visitor experience and congestion management – in various forms - has come increasingly under the spotlight over the last few years, since overcrowding can significantly decrease the quality of visitors’ experience. Evidence suggests that on busy days the amount of time a visitor spends inside a crowded house museum can fall by up to 60% compared to a quiet mid-week day. In this paper we consider the aforementioned problem, by treating museums as evolving social systems that induce constraints. However, in a cultural heritage space, as opposed to the majority of social environments, the momentum of the experience is primarily controlled by the visitor himself. Visitors typically behave selfishly regarding the maximization of their own Quality of Experience (QoE) - commonly expressed through a utility function that takes several parameters into consideration, with crowd density and waiting/visiting time being among the key ones. In such a setting, congestion occurs when either the utility of one visitor decreases due to the behavior of other persons, or when costs of undertaking an activity rise due to the presence of other persons. We initially investigate how visitors’ behavioral risk attitudes, as captured and represented by prospect theory, affect their decisions in resource sharing settings, where visitors’ decisions and experiences are strongly interdependent. Different from the majority of existing studies and literature, we highlight that visitors are not risk neutral utility maximizers, but they demonstrate risk-aware behavior according to their personal risk characteristics. In our work, exhibits are organized into two groups: a) “safe exhibits” that correspond to less congested ones, where the visitors receive guaranteed satisfaction in accordance with the visiting time invested, and b) common pool of resources (CPR) exhibits, which are the most popular exhibits with possibly increased congestion and uncertain outcome in terms of visitor satisfaction. A key difference is that the visitor satisfaction due to CPR strongly depends not only on the invested time decision of a specific visitor, but also on that of the rest of the visitors. In the latter case, the over-investment in time, or equivalently the increased congestion potentially leads to “exhibit failure”, interpreted as the visitors gain no satisfaction from their observation of this exhibit due to high congestion. We present a framework where each visitor in a distributed manner determines his time investment in safe or CPR exhibits to optimize his QoE. Based on this framework, we analyze and evaluate how visitors, acting as prospect-theoretic decision-makers, respond and react to the various pricing policies imposed by the museum curators. Based on detailed evaluation results and experiments, we present interesting observations, regarding the impact of several parameters and characteristics such as visitor heterogeneity and use of alternative pricing policies, on scalability, user satisfaction, museum capacity, resource fragility, and operation point stability. Furthermore, we study and present the effectiveness of alternative pricing mechanisms, when used as implicit tools, to deal with the congestion management problem in the museums, and potentially decrease the exhibit failure probability (fragility), while considering the visitor risk preferences.

Keywords: museum resource and visitor management, congestion management, propsect theory, cyber physical social systems

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Authors: Junhong Li, Danni Cheng, Yaxin Luo, Xiaowei Yi, Ke Qiu, Wendu Pang, Minzi Mao, Yufang Rao, Yao Song, Jianjun Ren, Yu Zhao

Abstract:

Background: The number of multiple cancer patients was increasing, and the impact of prior cancer history on salivary gland cancer patients remains unclear. Methods: Clinical, demographic and pathological information on salivary gland cancer patients were retrospectively collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2017, and the characteristics and prognosis between patients with a prior cancer and those without prior caner were compared. Univariate and multivariate cox proportional regression models were used for the analysis of prognosis. A risk score model was established to exam the impact of treatment on patients with a prior cancer in different risk groups. Results: A total of 9098 salivary gland cancer patients were identified, and 1635 of them had a prior cancer history. Salivary gland cancer patients with prior cancer had worse survival compared with those without a prior cancer (p<0.001). Patients with a different type of first cancer had a distinct prognosis (p<0.001), and longer latent time was associated with better survival (p=0.006) in the univariate model, although both became nonsignificant in the multivariate model. Salivary gland cancer patients with a prior cancer were divided into low-risk (n= 321), intermediate-risk (n=223), and high-risk (n=62) groups and the results showed that patients at high risk could benefit from surgery, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy, and those at intermediate risk could benefit from surgery. Conclusion: Prior cancer history had an adverse impact on the survival of salivary gland cancer patients, and individualized treatment should be seriously considered for them.

Keywords: prior cancer history, prognosis, salivary gland cancer, SEER

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Authors: Wenyan Xu, Rundong Wang, Chen Li, Yonghong Hu, Zhonghua Lu

Abstract:

In the field of quantitative trading, it is common to find patterns in short-term volatile trends of the market. These patterns are known as High-Frequency (HF) risk factors, serving as effective indicators of future stock price volatility. However, in the past, these risk factors were usually generated by traditional financial models, and the validity of these risk factors is heavily based on domain-specific knowledge manually added instead of extensive market data. Inspired by symbolic regression (SR), the task of inferring mathematical laws from existing data, we take the extraction of formulaic risk factors from high-frequency trading (HFT) market data as an SR task. In this paper, we challenge the procedure of manually constructing risk factors and propose an end-to-end methodology, Intraday Risk Factor Transformer (IRFT) to directly predict the full formulaic factors, constants included. Specifically, we utilize a hybrid symbolic-numeric vocabulary where symbolic tokens denote operators/stock features and numeric tokens denote constants. Then, we train a Transformer model on the HFT dataset to directly generate complete formulaic HF risk factors without relying on the skeleton, which is a parametric function using a pre-defined list of operators – typically, the math operations (+, ×, /) and functions(√x, log x, cos x). It determines the general shape of the stock volatility law up to a choice of constants, e.g., f(x) = tan(ax+b) (x is the stock price). We further refine predicted constants(a,b) using the Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno algorithm (BFGS) as informed guesses to mitigate non-linear issues. Compared to the 10 approaches in SRBench, which is a living benchmark for SR, IRFT gains a 30% excess investment return on the HS300 and S&P500 datasets, with inference times orders of magnitude faster than theirs in HF risk factor mining tasks.

Keywords: transformer, factor-mining language model, highfrequency risk factor collections

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

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Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: A. Asambe

Abstract:

A study was conducted to determine the level of compliance with sanitary measures in piggeries, and awareness and risk factors of African swine fever in Benue State, Nigeria. Questionnaires were distributed to 74 respondents consisting of piggery owners and attendants in different piggeries across 12 LGAs to collect data for this study. Sanitary measures in piggeries were observed to be generally very poor, though respondents admitted being aware of ASF. Piggeries located within a 1 km radius of a slaughter slab (OR=9.2, 95% CI - 3.0-28.8), piggeries near refuse dump sites (OR=3.0, 95% CI - 1.0-9.5) and piggeries where farm workers wear their work clothes outside of the piggery premises (OR=0.2, 95% CI - 0.1-0.7) showed higher chances of ASFV infection and were significantly associated (p < 0.0001), (p < 0.05) and (p < 0.01), and were identified as potential risk factors. The study concluded that pigs in Benue State are still at risk of an ASF outbreak. Proper sanitary and hygienic practices is advocated and emphasized in piggeries, while routine surveillance for ASFV antibodies in pigs in Benue State is strongly recommended to provide a reliable reference data base to plan for the prevention of any devastating ASF outbreak.

Keywords: African swine fever, awareness, piggery, risk factors, sanitary measures

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Authors: Peter Ekene Egwu

Abstract:

Waste management is of critical importance in Africa for reasons related to public health, human dignity, climate resilience and environmental preservation. However, delivering waste management services requires adequate funding, which has generally been lacking in a context where the generation of waste is outpacing the development of waste management infrastructure in most cities. The sector represents a growing percentage of cities’ greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and some of the African cities profiled in this study are now designing waste management strategies with emission reduction in mind.

Keywords: management waste material, Africa, uses of new technology to manage waste, waste management

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: Makhosazana Dubazana

Abstract:

Many South Africans commuters use minibus taxis daily and are connected to the informal transport network through metro centres informally known as Taxi Ranks. Taxi ranks form part of an economic nexus for many informal traders, connecting them to commuters, their prime clientele. They work along designated areas along the periphery of the taxi rank and in between taxi lanes. Informal traders are therefore at risk of adverse health effects associated with the inhalation of exhaust fumes from minibus taxis. Of the exhaust emissions, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX) have high toxicity. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to conduct a Human Health Risk Assessment for informal traders, looking at their exposure to BTEX compounds. Methods: The study was conducted in a subsection of a taxi rank which is representative of the entire taxi rank. This subsection has a daily average of 400 minibus taxi moving through it and an average of 60 informal traders working in it. In the health risk assessment, a questionnaire was conducted to understand the occupational behaviour of the informal traders. This was used to deduce the exposure scenarios and sampling locations. Three sampling campaigns were run for an average of 10 hours each covering the average working hours of traders. A gas chronographer was used for collecting continues ambient air samples at 15 min intervals. Results: Over the three sampling days, the average concentrations were, 8.46ppb, 0.63 ppb, 1.27ppb and 1.0ppb for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene respectively. The average cancer risk is 9.46E-03. In several cases, they were incidences of unacceptable risk for the cumulative exposure of all four BTEX compounds. Conclusion: This study adds to the body of knowledge on the Human Health Risk effects of urban BTEX pollution, furthermore focusing on the impact of urban BTEX on high risk personal such as informal traders, in Southern Africa.

Keywords: human health risk assessment, informal traders, occupational risk, urban BTEX

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Authors: Nadhifah A. Nugraha, Dida D. Damayanti, Widia Juliani

Abstract:

Airplanes manufacturing is growing along with the increasing demand from consumers. The helicopter's tail called Tailboom is a product of the helicopter division at XYZ Corp, where the Tailboom assembly line is a pull system. Based on observations of existing conditions that occur at XYZ Corp, production is still unable to meet the demands of consumers; lead time occurs greater than the plan agreed upon by the consumers. In the assembly process, each work station experiences a lack of parts and components needed to assemble components. This happens because of the delay in getting the required part information, and there is no warning about the availability of parts needed, it makes some parts unavailable in assembly warehouse. The lack of parts and components from the previous work station causes the assembly process to stop, and the assembly line also stops at the next station. In its completion, the production time was late and not on the schedule. In resolving these problems, the controlling process is needed, which is controlling the assembly line to get all components and subassembly in the right amount and at the right time. This study applies one of Just In Time tools, namely Kanban and automation, should be added as efficiently and effectively communication line becomes electronic Kanban. The problem can be solved by reducing non-value added time, such as waiting time and idle time. The proposed results of controlling the assembly line of Tailboom result in a smooth assembly line without waiting, reduced lead time, and achieving production time according to the schedule agreed with the consumers.

Keywords: kanban, e-Kanban, lead time, pull system

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Authors: Bambang Ariantara, Nandy Putra, Rangga Aji Pamungkas

Abstract:

The development of electric vehicle batteries has resulted in very high energy density lithium-ion batteries. However, this progress is accompanied by the risk of thermal runaway, which can result in serious accidents. Heat pipes are heat exchangers that are suitable to be applied in electric vehicle battery thermal management for their lightweight, compact size and do not require external power supply. This paper aims to examine experimentally a flat plate loop heat pipe (FPLHP) performance as a heat exchanger in the thermal management system of the lithium-ion battery for electric vehicle application. The heat generation of the battery was simulated using a cartridge heater. Stainless steel screen mesh was used as the capillary wick. Distilled water, alcohol and acetone were used as working fluids with a filling ratio of 60%. It was found that acetone gives the best performance that produces the thermal resistance of 0.22 W/°C with 50 °C evaporator temperature at heat flux load of 1.61 W/cm2.

Keywords: electric vehicle, flat-plate loop heat pipe, lithium-ion battery, thermal management system

Procedia PDF Downloads 337