Search results for: propagation of uncertainty
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1675

Search results for: propagation of uncertainty

925 Investment Adjustments to Exchange Rate Fluctuations Evidence from Manufacturing Firms in Tunisia

Authors: Mourad Zmami Oussema BenSalha

Abstract:

The current research aims to assess empirically the reaction of private investment to exchange rate fluctuations in Tunisia using a sample of 548 firms operating in manufacturing industries between 1997 and 2002. The micro-econometric model we estimate is based on an accelerator-profit specification investment model increased by two variables that measure the variation and the volatility of exchange rates. Estimates using the system the GMM method reveal that the effects of the exchange rate depreciation on investment are negative since it increases the cost of imported capital goods. Turning to the exchange rate volatility, as measured by the GARCH (1,1) model, our findings assign a significant role to the exchange rate uncertainty in explaining the sluggishness of private investment in Tunisia in the full sample of firms. Other estimation attempts based on various sub samples indicate that the elasticities of investment relative to the exchange rate volatility depend upon many firms’ specific characteristics such as the size and the ownership structure.

Keywords: investment, exchange rate volatility, manufacturing firms, system GMM, Tunisia

Procedia PDF Downloads 393
924 Emotion and Risk Taking in a Casino Game

Authors: Yulia V. Krasavtseva, Tatiana V. Kornilova

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Risk-taking behaviors are not only dictated by cognitive components but also involve emotional aspects. Anticipatory emotions, involving both cognitive and affective mechanisms, are involved in decision-making in general, and risk-taking in particular. Affective reactions are prompted when an expectation or prediction is either validated or invalidated in the achieved result. This study aimed to combine predictions, anticipatory emotions, affective reactions, and personality traits in the context of risk-taking behaviors. An experimental online method Emotion and Prediction In a Casino (EPIC) was used, based on a casino-like roulette game. In a series of choices, the participant is presented with progressively riskier roulette combinations, where the potential sums of wins and losses increase with each choice and the participant is given a choice: to 'walk away' with the current sum of money or to 'play' the displayed roulette, thus accepting the implicit risk. Before and after the result is displayed, participants also rate their emotions, using the Self-Assessment Mannequin [Bradley, Lang, 1994], picking a picture, representing the intensity of pleasure, arousal, and dominance. The following personality measures were used: 1) Personal Decision-Making Factors [Kornilova, 2003] assessing risk and rationality; 2) I7 – Impulsivity Questionnaire [Kornilova, 1995] assessing impulsiveness, risk readiness, and empathy and 3) Subjective Risk Intelligence Scale [Craparo et al., 2018] assessing negative attitude toward uncertainty, emotional stress vulnerability, imaginative capability, and problem-solving self-efficacy. Two groups of participants took part in the study: 1) 98 university students (Mage=19.71, SD=3.25; 72% female) and 2) 94 online participants (Mage=28.25, SD=8.25; 89% female). Online participants were recruited via social media. Students with high rationality rated their pleasure and dominance before and after choices as lower (ρ from -2.6 to -2.7, p < 0.05). Those with high levels of impulsivity rated their arousal lower before finding out their result (ρ from 2.5 - 3.7, p < 0.05), while also rating their dominance as low (ρ from -3 to -3.7, p < 0.05). Students prone to risk-rated their pleasure and arousal before and after higher (ρ from 2.5 - 3.6, p < 0.05). High empathy was positively correlated with arousal after learning the result. High emotional stress vulnerability positively correlates with arousal and pleasure after the choice (ρ from 3.9 - 5.7, p < 0.05). Negative attitude to uncertainty is correlated with high anticipatory and reactive arousal (ρ from 2.7 - 5.7, p < 0.05). High imaginative capability correlates negatively with anticipatory and reactive dominance (ρ from - 3.4 to - 4.3, p < 0.05). Pleasure (.492), arousal (.590), and dominance (.551) before and after the result were positively correlated. Higher predictions positively correlated with reactive pleasure and arousal. In a riskier scenario (6/8 chances to win), anticipatory arousal was negatively correlated with the pleasure emotion (-.326) and vice versa (-.265). Correlations occur regardless of the roulette outcome. In conclusion, risk-taking behaviors are linked not only to personality traits but also to anticipatory emotions and affect in a modeled casino setting. Acknowledgment: The study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project 19-29-07069.

Keywords: anticipatory emotions, casino game, risk taking, impulsiveness

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923 Forecasting Electricity Spot Price with Generalized Long Memory Modeling: Wavelet and Neural Network

Authors: Souhir Ben Amor, Heni Boubaker, Lotfi Belkacem

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This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.

Keywords: electricity price, k-factor GARMA, LLWNN, G-GARCH, forecasting

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922 Investigation of Arson Fire Incident in Textile Garment Building Using Fire Dynamic Simulation

Authors: Mohsin Ali Shaikh, Song Weiguo, Muhammad Kashan Surahio, Usman Shahid, Rehmat Karim

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This study investigated a catastrophic arson fire incident that occurred at a textile garment building in Karachi, Pakistan. Unfortunately, a catastrophic event led to the loss of 262 lives and caused 55 severe injuries. The primary objective is to analyze the aspects of the fire incident and understand the causes of arson fire disasters. The study utilized Fire Dynamic Simulation (F.D.S) was employed to simulate fire propagation, visibility, harmful gas concentration, fire temperature, and numerical results. The analysis report has determined the specific circumstances that created the unpleasant incident in the present study. The significance of the current findings lies in their potential to prevent arson fires, improve fire safety measures, and the development of safety plans in building design. The fire dynamic simulation findings can serve as a theoretical basis for the investigation of arson fires and evacuation planning in textile garment buildings.

Keywords: investigation, fire arson incident, textile garment, fire dynamic simulation (FDS)

Procedia PDF Downloads 69
921 A Large Dataset Imputation Approach Applied to Country Conflict Prediction Data

Authors: Benjamin Leiby, Darryl Ahner

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This study demonstrates an alternative stochastic imputation approach for large datasets when preferred commercial packages struggle to iterate due to numerical problems. A large country conflict dataset motivates the search to impute missing values well over a common threshold of 20% missingness. The methodology capitalizes on correlation while using model residuals to provide the uncertainty in estimating unknown values. Examination of the methodology provides insight toward choosing linear or nonlinear modeling terms. Static tolerances common in most packages are replaced with tailorable tolerances that exploit residuals to fit each data element. The methodology evaluation includes observing computation time, model fit, and the comparison of known values to replaced values created through imputation. Overall, the country conflict dataset illustrates promise with modeling first-order interactions while presenting a need for further refinement that mimics predictive mean matching.

Keywords: correlation, country conflict, imputation, stochastic regression

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920 The Role of Group Interaction and Managers’ Risk-willingness for Business Model Innovation Decisions: A Thematic Analysis

Authors: Sarah Müller-Sägebrecht

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Today’s volatile environment challenges executives to make the right strategic decisions to gain sustainable success. Entrepreneurship scholars postulate mainly positive effects of environmental changes on entrepreneurship behavior, such as developing new business opportunities, promoting ingenuity, and the satisfaction of resource voids. A strategic solution approach to overcome threatening environmental changes and catch new business opportunities is business model innovation (BMI). Although this research stream has gained further importance in the last decade, BMI research is still insufficient. Especially BMI barriers, such as inefficient strategic decision-making processes, need to be identified. Strategic decisions strongly impact organizational future and are, therefore, usually made in groups. Although groups draw on a more extensive information base than single individuals, group-interaction effects can influence the decision-making process - in a favorable but also unfavorable way. Decisions are characterized by uncertainty and risk, whereby their intensity is perceived individually differently. The individual risk-willingness influences which option humans choose. The special nature of strategic decisions, such as in BMI processes, is that these decisions are not made individually but in groups due to their high organizational scope. These groups consist of different personalities whose individual risk-willingness can vary considerably. It is known from group decision theory that these individuals influence each other, observable in different group-interaction effects. The following research questions arise: i) How does group interaction shape BMI decision-making from managers’ perspective? ii) What are the potential interrelations among managers’ risk-willingness, group biases, and BMI decision-making? After conducting 26 in-depth interviews with executives from the manufacturing industry, applied Gioia methodology reveals the following results: i) Risk-averse decision-makers have an increased need to be guided by facts. The more information available to them, the lower they perceive uncertainty and the more willing they are to pursue a specific decision option. However, the results also show that social interaction does not change the individual risk-willingness in the decision-making process. ii) Generally, it could be observed that during BMI decisions, group interaction is primarily beneficial to increase the group’s information base for making good decisions, less than for social interaction. Further, decision-makers mainly focus on information available to all decision-makers in the team but less on personal knowledge. This work contributes to strategic decision-making literature twofold. First, it gives insights into how group-interaction effects influence an organization’s strategic BMI decision-making. Second, it enriches risk-management research by highlighting how individual risk-willingness impacts organizational strategic decision-making. To date, it was known in BMI research that risk aversion would be an internal BMI barrier. However, with this study, it becomes clear that it is not risk aversion that inhibits BMI. Instead, the lack of information prevents risk-averse decision-makers from choosing a riskier option. Simultaneously, results show that risk-averse decision-makers are not easily carried away by the higher risk-willingness of their team members. Instead, they use social interaction to gather missing information. Therefore, executives need to provide sufficient information to all decision-makers to catch promising business opportunities.

Keywords: business model innovation, cognitive biases, group-interaction effects, strategic decision-making, risk-willingness

Procedia PDF Downloads 63
919 Smooth Second Order Nonsingular Terminal Sliding Mode Control for a 6 DOF Quadrotor UAV

Authors: V. Tabrizi, A. Vali, R. GHasemi, V. Behnamgol

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In this article, a nonlinear model of an under actuated six degrees of freedom (6 DOF) quadrotor UAV is derived on the basis of the Newton-Euler formula. The derivation comprises determining equations of the motion of the quadrotor in three dimensions and approximating the actuation forces through the modeling of aerodynamic coefficients and electric motor dynamics. The robust nonlinear control strategy includes a smooth second order non-singular terminal sliding mode control which is applied to stabilizing this model. The control method is on the basis of super twisting algorithm for removing the chattering and producing smooth control signal. Also, nonsingular terminal sliding mode idea is used for introducing a nonlinear sliding variable that guarantees the finite time convergence in sliding phase. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm is robust against uncertainty or disturbance and guarantees a fast and precise control signal.

Keywords: quadrotor UAV, nonsingular terminal sliding mode, second order sliding mode t, electronics, control, signal processing

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918 Flexural Analysis of Palm Fiber Reinforced Hybrid Polymer Matrix Composite

Authors: G.Venkatachalam, Gautham Shankar, Dasarath Raghav, Krishna Kuar, Santhosh Kiran, Bhargav Mahesh

Abstract:

Uncertainty in the availability of fossil fuels in the future and global warming increased the need for more environment-friendly materials. In this work, an attempt is made to fabricate a hybrid polymer matrix composite. The blend is a mixture of General Purpose Resin and Cashew Nut Shell Liquid, a natural resin extracted from cashew plant. Palm fiber, which has high strength, is used as a reinforcement material. The fiber is treated with alkali (NaOH) solution to increase its strength and adhesiveness. Parametric study of flexure strength is carried out by varying alkali concentration, duration of alkali treatment and fiber volume. Taguchi L9 Orthogonal array is followed in the design of experiments procedure for simplification. With the help of ANOVA technique, regression equations are obtained which gives the level of influence of each parameter on the flexure strength of the composite.

Keywords: Adhesion, CNSL, Flexural Analysis, Hybrid Matrix Composite, Palm Fiber

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917 Coaxial Helix Antenna for Microwave Coagulation Therapy in Liver Tissue Simulations

Authors: M. Chaichanyut, S. Tungjitkusolmun

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This paper is concerned with microwave (MW) ablation for a liver cancer tissue by using helix antenna. The antenna structure supports the propagation of microwave energy at 2.45 GHz. A 1½ turn spiral catheter-based microwave antenna applicator has been developed. We utilize the three-dimensional finite element method (3D FEM) simulation to analyze where the tissue heat flux, lesion pattern and volume destruction during MW ablation. The configurations of helix antenna where Helix air-core antenna and Helix Dielectric-core antenna. The 3D FEMs solutions were based on Maxwell and bio-heat equations. The simulation protocol was power control (10 W, 300s). Our simulation result, both helix antennas have heat flux occurred around the helix antenna and that can be induced the temperature distribution similar (teardrop). The region where the temperature exceeds 50°C the microwave ablation was successful (i.e. complete destruction). The Helix air-core antenna and Helix Dielectric-core antenna, ablation zone or axial ratios (Widest/length) were respectively 0.82 and 0.85; the complete destructions were respectively 4.18 cm³ and 5.64 cm³.

Keywords: liver cancer, Helix antenna, finite element, microwave ablation

Procedia PDF Downloads 294
916 Paradox of Business Strategic toward Sustainable Business: A Case Study of Hijab Fashion in Bandung

Authors: Lisandy Arinta Suryana, Santi Novani, Utomo Sarjono

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Paradox of business strategic is associated with the contradictory practice. It becomes one of the critical way to survive and win in the dynamic competitive landscape – high level of uncertainty and rapid change in the business environment. Those characteristics are similar with the environment of hijab fashion business, especially in Indonesia. This paper aims to describe the success of paradoxical strategic based on historical data of hijab fashion business which have been validated by qualitative approach. This paper discusses two main aspects of paradoxical strategic such as paradox in human resource management, and logistic center management. Then, the detail effects from each practice are described in term of causal loop diagram. Moreover, the practice of paradoxical strategic depends on leadership that can make a brave and dynamic decision by capturing the main problems and opportunities in their business, and also build commitment to achieve a specific goal.

Keywords: paradox of business strategic, paradoxical strategic, causal loop diagram, sustainable business, hijab fashion business, business strategic

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915 An Integrated Approach to Find the Effect of Strain Rate on Ultimate Tensile Strength of Randomly Oriented Short Glass Fiber Composite in Combination with Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Sharad Shrivastava, Arun Jalan

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In this study tensile testing was performed on randomly oriented short glass fiber/epoxy resin composite specimens which were prepared using hand lay-up method. Samples were tested over a wide range of strain rate/loading rate from 2mm/min to 40mm/min to see the effect on ultimate tensile strength of the composite. A multi layered 'back propagation artificial neural network of supervised learning type' was used to analyze and predict the tensile properties with strain rate and temperature as given input and output as UTS to predict. Various network structures were designed and investigated with varying parameters and network sizes, and an optimized network structure was proposed to predict the UTS of short glass fiber/epoxy resin composite specimens with reasonably good accuracy.

Keywords: glass fiber composite, mechanical properties, strain rate, artificial neural network

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914 Profit-Based Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Trained by Migrating Birds Optimization: A Case Study in Credit Card Fraud Detection

Authors: Ashkan Zakaryazad, Ekrem Duman

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A typical classification technique ranks the instances in a data set according to the likelihood of belonging to one (positive) class. A credit card (CC) fraud detection model ranks the transactions in terms of probability of being fraud. In fact, this approach is often criticized, because firms do not care about fraud probability but about the profitability or costliness of detecting a fraudulent transaction. The key contribution in this study is to focus on the profit maximization in the model building step. The artificial neural network proposed in this study works based on profit maximization instead of minimizing the error of prediction. Moreover, some studies have shown that the back propagation algorithm, similar to other gradient–based algorithms, usually gets trapped in local optima and swarm-based algorithms are more successful in this respect. In this study, we train our profit maximization ANN using the Migrating Birds optimization (MBO) which is introduced to literature recently.

Keywords: neural network, profit-based neural network, sum of squared errors (SSE), MBO, gradient descent

Procedia PDF Downloads 457
913 Verification and Application of Finite Element Model Developed for Flood Routing in Rivers

Authors: A. L. Qureshi, A. A. Mahessar, A. Baloch

Abstract:

Flood wave propagation in river channel flow can be enunciated by nonlinear equations of motion for unsteady flow. However, it is difficult to find analytical solution of these complex non-linear equations. Hence, verification of the numerical model should be carried out against field data and numerical predictions. This paper presents the verification of developed finite element model applying for unsteady flow in the open channels. The results of a proposed model indicate a good matching with both Preissmann scheme and HEC-RAS model for a river reach of 29 km at both sites (15 km from upstream and at downstream end) for discharge hydrographs. It also has an agreeable comparison with the Preissemann scheme for the flow depth (stage) hydrographs. The proposed model has also been applying to forecast daily discharges at 400 km downstream from Sukkur barrage, which demonstrates accurate model predictions with observed daily discharges. Hence, this model may be utilized for predicting and issuing flood warnings about flood hazardous in advance.

Keywords: finite element method, Preissmann scheme, HEC-RAS, flood forecasting, Indus river

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912 Finite Element Simulation for Preliminary Study on Microorganism Detection System

Authors: Muhammad Rosli Abdullah, Noor Hasmiza Harun

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A microorganism detection system has a potential to be used with the advancement in a biosensor development. The detection system requires an optical sensing system, microfluidic device and biological reagent. Although, the biosensors are available in the market, a label free and a lab-on-chip approach will promote a flexible solution. As a preliminary study of microorganism detection, three mechanisms such as Total Internal Reflection (TIR), Micro Fluidic Channel (MFC) and magnetic-electric field propagation were study and simulated. The objective are to identify the TIR angle, MFC parabolic flow and the wavelength for the microorganism detection. The simulation result indicates that evanescent wave is achieved when TIR angle > 42°, the corner and centre of a parabolic velocity are 0.02 m/s and 0.06 m/s respectively, and a higher energy distribution of a perfect electromagnetic scattering with dipole resonance radiation occurs at 500 nm. This simulation is beneficial to determine the components of the microorganism detection system that does not rely on classical microbiological, immunological and genetic methods which are laborious, time-consuming procedures and confined to specialized laboratories with expensive instrumentation equipment.

Keywords: microorganism, microfluidic, total internal reflection, lab on chip

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911 Objective and Subjective Preconditions for Entrepreneurship: From the Point of View of Enterprise Risk Management

Authors: Maria Luskova, Maria Hudakova, Katarina Buganova

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Established objective and subjective preconditions for entrepreneurship, forming the business organically related whole, are the necessary condition of successful entrepreneurial activities. Objective preconditions for entrepreneurship are developed by the market economy that should stimulate entrepreneurship by allowing the use of economic opportunities for all those who want to do business in respective field while providing guarantees to all owners and creating a stable business environment for entrepreneurs. Subjective preconditions of entrepreneurship are formed primarily by personal characteristics of the entrepreneur. These are his properties, abilities, skills, physiological, and psychological preconditions which may be inherited, inborn or sequentially developed and obtained during his life on the basis of education and influences of surrounding environment. The paper is dealing with issues of objective and subjective preconditions for entrepreneurship and provides their analysis in view of the current situation in Slovakia. It presents risks of the business environment in Slovakia that the Slovak managers considered the most significant in 2014 and defines the dominant attributes of the entrepreneur in the current business environment in Slovakia.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, innovations, opportunity, risk, uncertainty

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910 Low Density Parity Check Codes

Authors: Kassoul Ilyes

Abstract:

The field of error correcting codes has been revolutionized by the introduction of iteratively decoded codes. Among these, LDPC codes are now a preferred solution thanks to their remarkable performance and low complexity. The binary version of LDPC codes showed even better performance, although it’s decoding introduced greater complexity. This thesis studies the performance of binary LDPC codes using simplified weighted decisions. Information is transported between a transmitter and a receiver by digital transmission systems, either by propagating over a radio channel or also by using a transmission medium such as the transmission line. The purpose of the transmission system is then to carry the information from the transmitter to the receiver as reliably as possible. These codes have not generated enough interest within the coding theory community. This forgetfulness will last until the introduction of Turbo-codes and the iterative principle. Then it was proposed to adopt Pearl's Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm for decoding these codes. Subsequently, Luby introduced irregular LDPC codes characterized by a parity check matrix. And finally, we study simplifications on binary LDPC codes. Thus, we propose a method to make the exact calculation of the APP simpler. This method leads to simplifying the implementation of the system.

Keywords: LDPC, parity check matrix, 5G, BER, SNR

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909 Damage Assessment of Reinforced Concrete Slabs Subjected to Blast Loading

Authors: W. Badla

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A numerical investigation has been carried out to examine the behaviour of reinforced concrete slabs to uniform blast loading. The aim of this work is to determine the effects of various parameters on the results. Finite element simulations were performed in the non linear dynamic range using an elasto-plastic damage model. The main parameters considered are: the negative phase of blast loading, time duration, equivalent weight of TNT, distance of the explosive and slab dimensions. Numerical modelling has been performed using ABAQUS/Explicit. The results obtained in terms of displacements and propagation of damage show that the above parameters influence considerably the nonlinear dynamic behaviour of reinforced concrete slabs under uniform blast loading.

Keywords: blast loading, reinforced concrete slabs, elasto-plastic damage model, negative phase, time duration, equivalent weight of TNT, explosive distance, slab dimensions

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908 Mitigation of Electromagnetic Interference Generated by GPIB Control-Network in AC-DC Transfer Measurement System

Authors: M. M. Hlakola, E. Golovins, D. V. Nicolae

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The field of instrumentation electronics is undergoing an explosive growth, due to its wide range of applications. The proliferation of electrical devices in a close working proximity can negatively influence each other’s performance. The degradation in the performance is due to electromagnetic interference (EMI). This paper investigates the negative effects of electromagnetic interference originating in the General Purpose Interface Bus (GPIB) control-network of the ac-dc transfer measurement system. Remedial measures of reducing measurement errors and failure of range of industrial devices due to EMI have been explored. The ac-dc transfer measurement system was analyzed for the common-mode (CM) EMI effects. Further investigation of coupling path as well as more accurate identification of noise propagation mechanism has been outlined. To prevent the occurrence of common-mode (ground loops) which was identified between the GPIB system control circuit and the measurement circuit, a microcontroller-driven GPIB switching isolator device was designed, prototyped, programmed and validated. This mitigation technique has been explored to reduce EMI effectively.

Keywords: CM, EMI, GPIB, ground loops

Procedia PDF Downloads 277
907 Simple Finite-Element Procedure for Modeling Crack Propagation in Reinforced Concrete Bridge Deck under Repetitive Moving Truck Wheel Loads

Authors: Rajwanlop Kumpoopong, Sukit Yindeesuk, Pornchai Silarom

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Modeling cracks in concrete is complicated by its strain-softening behavior which requires the use of sophisticated energy criteria of fracture mechanics to assure stable and convergent solutions in the finite-element (FE) analysis particularly for relatively large structures. However, for small-scale structures such as beams and slabs, a simpler approach relies on retaining some shear stiffness in the cracking plane has been adopted in literature to model the strain-softening behavior of concrete under monotonically increased loading. According to the shear retaining approach, each element is assumed to be an isotropic material prior to cracking of concrete. Once an element is cracked, the isotropic element is replaced with an orthotropic element in which the new orthotropic stiffness matrix is formulated with respect to the crack orientation. The shear transfer factor of 0.5 is used in parallel to the crack plane. The shear retaining approach is adopted in this research to model cracks in RC bridge deck with some modifications to take into account the effect of repetitive moving truck wheel loads as they cause fatigue cracking of concrete. First modification is the introduction of fatigue tests of concrete and reinforcing steel and the Palmgren-Miner linear criterion of cumulative damage in the conventional FE analysis. For a certain loading, the number of cycles to failure of each concrete or RC element can be calculated from the fatigue or S-N curves of concrete and reinforcing steel. The elements with the minimum number of cycles to failure are the failed elements. For the elements that do not fail, the damage is accumulated according to Palmgren-Miner linear criterion of cumulative damage. The stiffness of the failed element is modified and the procedure is repeated until the deck slab fails. The total number of load cycles to failure of the deck slab can then be obtained from which the S-N curve of the deck slab can be simulated. Second modification is the modification in shear transfer factor. Moving loading causes continuous rubbing of crack interfaces which greatly reduces shear transfer mechanism. It is therefore conservatively assumed in this study that the analysis is conducted with shear transfer factor of zero for the case of moving loading. A customized FE program has been developed using the MATLAB software to accomodate such modifications. The developed procedure has been validated with the fatigue test of the 1/6.6-scale AASHTO bridge deck under the applications of both fixed-point repetitive loading and moving loading presented in the literature. Results are in good agreement both experimental vs. simulated S-N curves and observed vs. simulated crack patterns. Significant contribution of the developed procedure is a series of S-N relations which can now be simulated at any desired levels of cracking in addition to the experimentally derived S-N relation at the failure of the deck slab. This permits the systematic investigation of crack propagation or deterioration of RC bridge deck which is appeared to be useful information for highway agencies to prolong the life of their bridge decks.

Keywords: bridge deck, cracking, deterioration, fatigue, finite-element, moving truck, reinforced concrete

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906 New Isolate of Cucumber Mosaic Virus Infecting Banana

Authors: Abdelsabour G. A. Khaled, Ahmed W. A. Abdalla And Sabry Y. M. Mahmoud

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Banana plants showing typical mosaic and yellow stripes on leaves as symptoms were collected from Assiut Governorate in Egypt. The causal agent was identified as Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV) on the basis of symptoms, transmission, serology, transmission electron microscopy and reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Coat protein (CP) gene was amplified using gene specific primers for coat protein (CP), followed by cloning into desired cloning vector for sequencing. In this study the CMV was transmitted into propagation host either by aphid or mechanically. The transmission was confirmed through Direct Antigen Coating Enzyme Linked Immuno Sorbent Assay (DAC-ELISA). Analysis of the 120 deduced amino acid sequence of the coat protein gene revealed that the EG-A strain of CMV shared from 97.50 to 98.33% with those strains belonging to subgroup IA. The cluster analysis grouped the Egyptian isolate with strains Fny and Ri8 belonging sub-group IA. It appears that there occurs a high incidence of CMV infecting banana belonging to IA subgroup in most parts of Egypt.

Keywords: banana, CMV, transmission, CP gene, RT-PCR

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905 Application of Artificial Neural Network for Prediction of Load-Haul-Dump Machine Performance Characteristics

Authors: J. Balaraju, M. Govinda Raj, C. S. N. Murthy

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Every industry is constantly looking for enhancement of its day to day production and productivity. This can be possible only by maintaining the men and machinery at its adequate level. Prediction of performance characteristics plays an important role in performance evaluation of the equipment. Analytical and statistical approaches will take a bit more time to solve complex problems such as performance estimations as compared with software-based approaches. Keeping this in view the present study deals with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) modelling of a Load-Haul-Dump (LHD) machine to predict the performance characteristics such as reliability, availability and preventive maintenance (PM). A feed-forward-back-propagation ANN technique has been used to model the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) training algorithm. The performance characteristics were computed using Isograph Reliability Workbench 13.0 software. These computed values were validated using predicted output responses of ANN models. Further, recommendations are given to the industry based on the performed analysis for improvement of equipment performance.

Keywords: load-haul-dump, LHD, artificial neural network, ANN, performance, reliability, availability, preventive maintenance

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904 Novel CFRP Adhesive Joints and Structures for Offshore Application

Authors: M. R. Abusrea, Shiyi Jiang, Dingding Chen, Kazuo Arakawa

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Novel wind-lens turbine designs can augment power output. Vacuum-Assisted Resin Transfer Molding (VARTM) is used to form large and complex structures from a Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) composite. Typically, wind-lens turbine structures are fabricated in segments, and then bonded to form the final structure. This paper introduces five new adhesive joints, divided into two groups: One is constructed between dry carbon and CFRP fabrics, and the other is constructed with two dry carbon fibers. All joints and CFRP fabrics were made in our laboratory using VARTM manufacturing techniques. Specimens were prepared for tensile testing to measure joint performance. The results showed that the second group of joints achieved a higher tensile strength than the first group. On the other hand, the tensile fracture behavior of the two groups showed the same pattern of crack originating near the joint ends followed by crack propagation until fracture.

Keywords: adhesive joints, CFRP, VARTM, resin transfer molding

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903 A Phase Field Approach to Model Crack Interface Interaction in Ceramic Matrix Composites

Authors: Dhaladhuli Pranavi, Amirtham Rajagopal

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There are various failure modes in ceramic matrix composites; notable ones are fiber breakage, matrix cracking and fiber matrix debonding. Crack nucleation and propagation in microstructure of such composites requires an understanding of interaction of crack with the multiple inclusion heterogeneous system and interfaces. In order to assess structural integrity, the material parameters especially of the interface that governs the crack growth should be determined. In the present work, a nonlocal phase field approach is proposed to model the crack interface interaction in such composites. Nonlocal approaches help in understanding the complex mechanisms of delamination growth and mitigation and operates at a material length scale. The performance of the proposed formulation is illustrated through representative numerical examples. The model proposed is implemented in the framework of the finite element method. Several parametric studies on interface crack interaction are conducted. The proposed model is easy and simple to implement and works very well in modeling fracture in composite systems.

Keywords: composite, interface, nonlocal, phase field

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902 The Application of Artificial Neural Networks for the Performance Prediction of Evacuated Tube Solar Air Collector with Phase Change Material

Authors: Sukhbir Singh

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This paper describes the modeling of novel solar air collector (NSAC) system by using artificial neural network (ANN) model. The objective of the study is to demonstrate the application of the ANN model to predict the performance of the NSAC with acetamide as a phase change material (PCM) storage. Input data set consist of time, solar intensity and ambient temperature wherever as outlet air temperature of NSAC was considered as output. Experiments were conducted between 9.00 and 24.00 h in June and July 2014 underneath the prevailing atmospheric condition of Kurukshetra (city of the India). After that, experimental results were utilized to train the back propagation neural network (BPNN) to predict the outlet air temperature of NSAC. The results of proposed algorithm show that the BPNN is effective tool for the prediction of responses. The BPNN predicted results are 99% in agreement with the experimental results.

Keywords: Evacuated tube solar air collector, Artificial neural network, Phase change material, solar air collector

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901 A Neural Network Modelling Approach for Predicting Permeability from Well Logs Data

Authors: Chico Horacio Jose Sambo

Abstract:

Recently neural network has gained popularity when come to solve complex nonlinear problems. Permeability is one of fundamental reservoir characteristics system that are anisotropic distributed and non-linear manner. For this reason, permeability prediction from well log data is well suited by using neural networks and other computer-based techniques. The main goal of this paper is to predict reservoir permeability from well logs data by using neural network approach. A multi-layered perceptron trained by back propagation algorithm was used to build the predictive model. The performance of the model on net results was measured by correlation coefficient. The correlation coefficient from testing, training, validation and all data sets was evaluated. The results show that neural network was capable of reproducing permeability with accuracy in all cases, so that the calculated correlation coefficients for training, testing and validation permeability were 0.96273, 0.89991 and 0.87858, respectively. The generalization of the results to other field can be made after examining new data, and a regional study might be possible to study reservoir properties with cheap and very fast constructed models.

Keywords: neural network, permeability, multilayer perceptron, well log

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900 Application of Artificial Neural Network Technique for Diagnosing Asthma

Authors: Azadeh Bashiri

Abstract:

Introduction: Lack of proper diagnosis and inadequate treatment of asthma leads to physical and financial complications. This study aimed to use data mining techniques and creating a neural network intelligent system for diagnosis of asthma. Methods: The study population is the patients who had visited one of the Lung Clinics in Tehran. Data were analyzed using the SPSS statistical tool and the chi-square Pearson's coefficient was the basis of decision making for data ranking. The considered neural network is trained using back propagation learning technique. Results: According to the analysis performed by means of SPSS to select the top factors, 13 effective factors were selected, in different performances, data was mixed in various forms, so the different models were made for training the data and testing networks and in all different modes, the network was able to predict correctly 100% of all cases. Conclusion: Using data mining methods before the design structure of system, aimed to reduce the data dimension and the optimum choice of the data, will lead to a more accurate system. Therefore, considering the data mining approaches due to the nature of medical data is necessary.

Keywords: asthma, data mining, Artificial Neural Network, intelligent system

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899 Fragility Analysis of Weir Structure Subjected to Flooding Water Damage

Authors: Oh Hyeon Jeon, WooYoung Jung

Abstract:

In this study, seepage analysis was performed by the level difference between upstream and downstream of weir structure for safety evaluation of weir structure against flooding. Monte Carlo Simulation method was employed by considering the probability distribution of the adjacent ground parameter, i.e., permeability coefficient of weir structure. Moreover, by using a commercially available finite element program (ABAQUS), modeling of the weir structure is carried out. Based on this model, the characteristic of water seepage during flooding was determined at each water level with consideration of the uncertainty of their corresponding permeability coefficient. Subsequently, fragility function could be constructed based on this response from numerical analysis; this fragility function results could be used to determine the weakness of weir structure subjected to flooding disaster. They can also be used as a reference data that can comprehensively predict the probability of failur,e and the degree of damage of a weir structure.

Keywords: weir structure, seepage, flood disaster fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, Monte-Carlo simulation, permeability coefficient

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898 Interesting Behavior of Non-Thermal Plasma Photonic Crystals

Authors: A. Mousavi, S. Sadegzadeh

Abstract:

In this research, the effect of non-thermal micro plasma with non-Maxwellian distribution function on the one dimensional plasma photonic crystals containing alternate plasma-dielectric layers, has been studied. By using Kronig Penny model, the dispersion relation of electromagnetic modes for such a periodic structure is obtained. In this study we take two plasma photonic crystals with different dielectric layers: the first one with Silicon monoxide named PPCI, and the second one with Tellurium dioxide named PPCII. The effects of the plasma layer thickness and the material of the dielectric layer on the plasma photonic crystal band gaps have been illustrated in the dispersion relation and the group velocity figures. Results revealed that in such a system, the non-thermal plasma exerts stronger limit on the wave’s propagation. In another word, for the non-thermal plasma photonic crystals (NPPC), there are two distinct regions in the dispersion plot. The upper region consists of alternate band gaps in such a way that both width and length of the bands decrease gradually as the band gaps order increases. Whereas in the lower region where v_ph > 20 c (for PPCI), waves will not be allowed to propagate.

Keywords: band gap, dispersion relation, non-thermal plasma, plasma photonic crystal

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897 Metareasoning Image Optimization Q-Learning

Authors: Mahasa Zahirnia

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to explore new and effective ways of optimizing satellite images using artificial intelligence, and the process of implementing reinforcement learning to enhance the quality of data captured within the image. In our implementation of Bellman's Reinforcement Learning equations, associated state diagrams, and multi-stage image processing, we were able to enhance image quality, detect and define objects. Reinforcement learning is the differentiator in the area of artificial intelligence, and Q-Learning relies on trial and error to achieve its goals. The reward system that is embedded in Q-Learning allows the agent to self-evaluate its performance and decide on the best possible course of action based on the current and future environment. Results show that within a simulated environment, built on the images that are commercially available, the rate of detection was 40-90%. Reinforcement learning through Q-Learning algorithm is not just desired but required design criteria for image optimization and enhancements. The proposed methods presented are a cost effective method of resolving uncertainty of the data because reinforcement learning finds ideal policies to manage the process using a smaller sample of images.

Keywords: Q-learning, image optimization, reinforcement learning, Markov decision process

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896 Anomaly Detection with ANN and SVM for Telemedicine Networks

Authors: Edward Guillén, Jeisson Sánchez, Carlos Omar Ramos

Abstract:

In recent years, a wide variety of applications are developed with Support Vector Machines -SVM- methods and Artificial Neural Networks -ANN-. In general, these methods depend on intrusion knowledge databases such as KDD99, ISCX, and CAIDA among others. New classes of detectors are generated by machine learning techniques, trained and tested over network databases. Thereafter, detectors are employed to detect anomalies in network communication scenarios according to user’s connections behavior. The first detector based on training dataset is deployed in different real-world networks with mobile and non-mobile devices to analyze the performance and accuracy over static detection. The vulnerabilities are based on previous work in telemedicine apps that were developed on the research group. This paper presents the differences on detections results between some network scenarios by applying traditional detectors deployed with artificial neural networks and support vector machines.

Keywords: anomaly detection, back-propagation neural networks, network intrusion detection systems, support vector machines

Procedia PDF Downloads 341