Search results for: probability estimation

Authors: J. B. Minari, O. B. Oloyede, A. A. Odutuga

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Myeloperoxidase is the most abundant enzyme found in the polymorphonuclear neutrophil and is known to play a central role in the host defense system of the leukocyte. The enzyme has been reported to interact with some drugs to generate free radical which inhibits its activity. This study investigated the effects of artesunate on the activity of the enzyme and the subsequent effect on the host immune system. In investigating the effects of the drugs on myeloperoxidase, the influence of concentration, pH, partition ratio estimation and kinetics of inhibition were studied. This study showed that artesunate is concentration-dependent inhibitor of myeloperoxidase with an IC50 of 0.078mM. Partition ratio estimation showed that 60 enzymatic turnover cycles are required for complete inhibition of myeloperoxidase in the presence of artesunate. The influence of pH on the effect of artesunate on the enzyme showed least activity of myeloperoxidase at physiological pH. The kinetic inhibition studies showed that artesunate caused a competitive inhibition with an increase in the Km value from 0.12mM to 0.26mM and no effect on the Vmax value. The Ki value was estimated to be 2.5mM. The results obtained from this study show that artesunate is a potent inhibitor of myeloperoxidase and it is capable of inactivating the enzyme. It is considered that the inhibition of myeloperoxidase in the presence of artesunate as revealed in this study may partly explain the impairment of polymorphonuclear neutrophil and consequent reduction of the strength of the host defense system against secondary infections.

Keywords: myeloperoxidase, artesunate, inhibition, nuetrophill

Procedia PDF Downloads 350

Authors: SeyedKeivan Nateghi, Jan Kaczmarczyk

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People nowadays spend most of their time in buildings. Accordingly, maintaining a good quality of indoor air is very important. New universal matters related to the prevalence of Covid-19 also highlight the importance of indoor air conditioning in reducing the risk of virus infection. Cooling and Heating of a house will provide a suitable zone of air temperature for residents. One of the significant factors in energy demand is energy consumption in the building. In general, building divisions compose more than 30% of the world's fundamental energy requirement. As energy demand increased, greenhouse effects emerged that caused global warming. Regardless of the environmental damage to the ecosystem, it can spread infectious diseases such as malaria, cholera, or dengue to many other parts of the world. With the advent of the Covid-19 phenomenon, the previous instructions to reduce energy consumption are no longer responsive because they increase the risk of virus infection among people in the room. Two problems of high energy consumption and coronavirus infection are opposite. A classroom with 30 students and one teacher in Katowice, Poland, considered controlling two objectives simultaneal. The probability of transmission of the disease is calculated from the carbon dioxide concentration of people. Also, in a certain period, the amount of energy consumption is estimated by EnergyPlus. The effect of three parameters of number, angle, and time or schedule of opening windows on the probability of infection transmission and energy consumption of the class were investigated. Parameters were examined widely to determine the best possible condition for simultaneous control of infection spread and energy consumption. The number of opening windows is discrete (0,3), and two other parameters are continuous (0,180) and (8 AM, 2 PM). Preliminary results show that changes in the number, angle, and timing of window openings significantly impact the likelihood of virus transmission and class energy consumption. The greater the number, tilt, and timing of window openings, the less likely the student will transmit the virus. But energy consumption is increasing. When all the windows were closed at all hours of the class, the energy consumption for the first day of January was only 0.2 megajoules. In comparison, the probability of transmitting the virus per person in the classroom is more than 45%. But when all windows were open at maximum angles during class, the chance of transmitting the infection was reduced to 0.35%. But the energy consumption will be 36 megajoules. Therefore, school classrooms need an optimal schedule to control both functions. In this article, we will present a suitable plan for the classroom with natural ventilation through windows to control energy consumption and the possibility of infection transmission at the same time.

Keywords: Covid-19, energy consumption, building, carbon dioxide, energyplus

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Jaegu Choi, Jae-Mean Koo, Chang-Sung Seok, Byungwoo Moon

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Since massive earthquakes in the world have been reported recently, the safety of nuclear power plants for seismic loading has become a significant issue. Seismic loading is the reverse cyclic loading, consisting of repeated tensile and compression by longitudinal and transverse wave. Up to this time, the study on characteristics of fracture toughness under reverse cyclic loading has been unsatisfactory. Therefore, it is necessary to obtain the fracture toughness under reverse cyclic load for the integrity estimation of nuclear power plants under seismic load. Fracture resistance (J-R) curves, which are used for determination of fracture toughness or integrity estimation in terms of elastic-plastic fracture mechanics, can be derived by the fracture resistance test using single specimen technique. The objective of this paper is to study the effects of reverse cyclic loading on a fracture resistance curve of ESG specimen, having a similar stress gradient compared to the crack surface of the real pipe. For this, we carried out the fracture toughness test under the reverse cyclic loading, while changing incremental plastic displacement. Test results showed that the J-R curves were decreased with a decrease of the incremental plastic displacement.

Keywords: reverse cyclic loading, j-r curve, ESG specimen, incremental plastic displacement

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Authors: H. Yousefnia, S. Zolghadri

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The measurement of organ radiation exposure dose is one of the most important steps to be taken initially, for developing a new radiopharmaceutical. In this study, the dosimetric studies of a novel agent for SPECT-imaging of the bone metastasis, 111In-1,4,7,10-tetraazacyclododecane-1,4,7,10 tetraethylene phosphonic acid (111In-DOTMP) complex, have been carried out to estimate the dose in human organs based on the data derived from rats. The radiolabeled complex was prepared with high radiochemical purity in the optimal conditions. Biodistribution studies of the complex was investigated in the male Syrian rats at selected times after injection (2, 4, 24 and 48 h). The human absorbed dose estimation of the complex was made based on data derived from the rats by the radiation absorbed dose assessment resource (RADAR) method. 111In-DOTMP complex was prepared with high radiochemical purity of >99% (ITLC). Total body effective absorbed dose for 111In-DOTMP was 0.061 mSv/MBq. This value is comparable to the other 111In clinically used complexes. The results show that the dose with respect to the critical organs is satisfactory within the acceptable range for diagnostic nuclear medicine procedures. Generally, 111In-DOTMP has interesting characteristics and can be considered as a viable agent for SPECT-imaging of the bone metastasis in the near future.

Keywords: In-111, DOTMP, Internal Dosimetry, RADAR

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Authors: Gizelle K. Vianna, Gabriel V. Cunha, Gustavo S. Oliveira

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Foliage diseases in plants can cause a reduction in both quality and quantity of agricultural production. Intelligent detection of plant diseases is an essential research topic as it may help monitoring large fields of crops by automatically detecting the symptoms of foliage diseases. This work investigates ways to recognize the late blight disease from the analysis of tomato digital images, collected directly from the field. A pair of multilayer perceptron neural network analyzes the digital images, using data from both RGB and HSL color models, and classifies each image pixel. One neural network is responsible for the identification of healthy regions of the tomato leaf, while the other identifies the injured regions. The outputs of both networks are combined to generate the final classification of each pixel from the image and the pixel classes are used to repaint the original tomato images by using a color representation that highlights the injuries on the plant. The new images will have only green, red or black pixels, if they came from healthy or injured portions of the leaf, or from the background of the image, respectively. The system presented an accuracy of 97% in detection and estimation of the level of damage on the tomato leaves caused by late blight.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, digital image processing, pattern recognition, phytosanitary

Procedia PDF Downloads 315

Authors: Hong Wu, Naiji Lu

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Improvement of health behavior among people with chronic diseases is vital for increasing longevity and enhancing quality of life. This paper researched the causal effects of informal care on the compliance with doctor’s health advices – smoking control, dietetic regulation, weight control and keep exercising – among older people with chronic diseases in China, which is facing the challenge of aging. We addressed the selection bias by using propensity score matching in the estimation process. We used the 2011-2012 national baseline data of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. Our results showed informal care can help improve health behavior of older people. First, informal care improved the compliance of smoking controls: whether smoke, frequency of smoking, and the time lag between wake up and the first cigarette was all lower for these older people with informal care; Second, for dietetic regulation, older people with informal care had more meals every day than older people without informal care; Third, three variables: BMI, whether gain weight and whether lose weight were used to measure the outcome of weight control. There were no significant difference between group with informal care and that without for BMI and the possibility of losing weight. Older people with informal care had lower possibility of gain weight than that without; Last, for the advice of keeping exercising, informal care increased the probability of walking exercise, however, the difference between groups for moderate and vigorous exercise were not significant. Our results indicate policy makers who aim to decrease accidents should take informal care to elders into account and provide an appropriate policy to meet the demand of informal care. Our birth policy and postponed retirement policy may decrease the informal caregiving hours, so adjustments of these policies are important and urgent to meet the current situation of aged tendency of population. In addition, government could give more support to develop organizations to provide formal care, such as nursing home. We infer that formal care is also useful for health behavior improvements.

Keywords: chronic diseases, compliance, CHARLS, health advice, informal care, older people, propensity score matching

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Authors: Ahmed G. Mahgoub, Dahlia H. Hafez, Mostafa A. Abu Kiefa

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The Cone Penetration Test (CPT) is a common in-situ test which generally investigates a much greater volume of soil more quickly than possible from sampling and laboratory tests. Therefore, it has the potential to realize both cost savings and assessment of soil properties rapidly and continuously. The principle objective of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the soil angle of internal friction (Φ) and the soil modulus of elasticity (E) from CPT results considering the uncertainties and non-linearities of the soil. In addition, ANNs are used to study the influence of different parameters and recommend which parameters should be included as input parameters to improve the prediction. Neural networks discover relationships in the input data sets through the iterative presentation of the data and intrinsic mapping characteristics of neural topologies. General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is one of the powerful neural network architectures which is utilized in this study. A large amount of field and experimental data including CPT results, plate load tests, direct shear box, grain size distribution and calculated data of overburden pressure was obtained from a large project in the United Arab Emirates. This data was used for the training and the validation of the neural network. A comparison was made between the obtained results from the ANN's approach, and some common traditional correlations that predict Φ and E from CPT results with respect to the actual results of the collected data. The results show that the ANN is a very powerful tool. Very good agreement was obtained between estimated results from ANN and actual measured results with comparison to other correlations available in the literature. The study recommends some easily available parameters that should be included in the estimation of the soil properties to improve the prediction models. It is shown that the use of friction ration in the estimation of Φ and the use of fines content in the estimation of E considerable improve the prediction models.

Keywords: angle of internal friction, cone penetrating test, general regression neural network, soil modulus of elasticity

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Authors: Mahsa Mousavi, Hamid Reza Pourshaghaghi, Mohammad Tahghighi, Henk Corporaal

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Recently, Statistic Random-Access Memory-based (SRAM-based) Field-Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) are widely used in aeronautics and space systems where high dependability is demanded and considered as a mandatory requirement. Since design’s circuit is stored in configuration memory in SRAM-based FPGAs; they are very sensitive to Single Event Upsets (SEUs). In addition, the adverse effects of SEUs on the electronics used in space are much higher than in the Earth. Thus, developing fault tolerant techniques play crucial roles for the use of SRAM-based FPGAs in space. However, fault tolerance techniques introduce additional penalties in system parameters, e.g., area, power, performance and design time. In this paper, an accurate estimation of configuration memory vulnerability to SEUs is proposed for approximate-tolerant applications. This vulnerability estimation is highly required for compromising between the overhead introduced by fault tolerance techniques and system robustness. In this paper, we study applications in which the exact final output value is not necessarily always a concern meaning that some of the SEU-induced changes in output values are negligible. We therefore define and propose Approximate-based Configuration Memory Vulnerability Factor (ACMVF) estimation to avoid overestimating configuration memory vulnerability to SEUs. In this paper, we assess the vulnerability of configuration memory by injecting SEUs in configuration memory bits and comparing the output values of a given circuit in presence of SEUs with expected correct output. In spite of conventional vulnerability factor calculation methods, which accounts any deviations from the expected value as failures, in our proposed method a threshold margin is considered depending on user-case applications. Given the proposed threshold margin in our model, a failure occurs only when the difference between the erroneous output value and the expected output value is more than this margin. The ACMVF is subsequently calculated by acquiring the ratio of failures with respect to the total number of SEU injections. In our paper, a test-bench for emulating SEUs and calculating ACMVF is implemented on Zynq-7000 FPGA platform. This system makes use of the Single Event Mitigation (SEM) IP core to inject SEUs into configuration memory bits of the target design implemented in Zynq-7000 FPGA. Experimental results for 32-bit adder show that, when 1% to 10% deviation from correct output is considered, the counted failures number is reduced 41% to 59% compared with the failures number counted by conventional vulnerability factor calculation. It means that estimation accuracy of the configuration memory vulnerability to SEUs is improved up to 58% in the case that 10% deviation is acceptable in output results. Note that less than 10% deviation in addition result is reasonably tolerable for many applications in approximate computing domain such as Convolutional Neural Network (CNN).

Keywords: fault tolerance, FPGA, single event upset, approximate computing

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Authors: Rachida Ouysse

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This paper proposes a constrained principal components (CnPC) estimator for efficient estimation of large-dimensional factor models when errors are cross sectionally correlated and the number of cross-sections (N) may be larger than the number of observations (T). Although principal components (PC) method is consistent for any path of the panel dimensions, it is inefficient as the errors are treated to be homoskedastic and uncorrelated. The new CnPC exploits the assumption of bounded cross-sectional dependence, which defines Chamberlain and Rothschild’s (1983) approximate factor structure, as an explicit constraint and solves a constrained PC problem. The CnPC method is computationally equivalent to the PC method applied to a regularized form of the data covariance matrix. Unlike maximum likelihood type methods, the CnPC method does not require inverting a large covariance matrix and thus is valid for panels with N ≥ T. The paper derives a convergence rate and an asymptotic normality result for the CnPC estimators of the common factors. We provide feasible estimators and show in a simulation study that they are more accurate than the PC estimator, especially for panels with N larger than T, and the generalized PC type estimators, especially for panels with N almost as large as T.

Keywords: high dimensionality, unknown factors, principal components, cross-sectional correlation, shrinkage regression, regularization, pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting

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Authors: Ren Moses, Emmanuel Kidando, Eren Ozguven, Yassir Abdelrazig

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Although older drivers (defined as those of age 65 and above) are less involved with speeding, alcohol use as well as night driving, they are more vulnerable to severe crashes. The major contributing factors for severe crashes include frailty and medical complications. Several studies have evaluated the contributing factors on severity of crashes. However, few studies have established the impact of travel time reliability (TTR) on road safety. In particular, the impact of TTR on senior adults who face several challenges including hearing difficulties, decreasing of the processing skills and cognitive problems in driving is not well established. Therefore, this study focuses on determining possible impacts of TTR on the traffic safety with focus on elderly drivers. Historical travel speed data from freeway links in the study area were used to calculate travel time and the associated TTR metrics that is, planning time index, the buffer index, the standard deviation of the travel time and the probability of congestion. Four-year information on crashes occurring on these freeway links was acquired. The binary logit model estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling technique was used to evaluate variables that could be influencing elderly crash severity. Preliminary results of the analysis suggest that TTR is statistically significant in affecting the severity of a crash involving an elderly driver. The result suggests that one unit increase in the probability of congestion reduces the likelihood of the elderly severe crash by nearly 22%. These findings will enhance the understanding of TTR and its impact on the elderly crash severity.

Keywords: highway safety, travel time reliability, elderly drivers, traffic modeling

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Authors: A. Prajapati, K. L. Koo, F. Ghassemi, M. Mulimakwenda

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In the UK, as the volume of non-linear loads connected to transmission grid continues to rise steeply, the harmonic distortion levels on transmission network are becoming a serious concern for the network owners and system operators. This paper outlines the findings of the study conducted to verify the proposal that the harmonic mitigation could be optimized and can be managed economically and effectively at the transmission network level by the Transmission Owner (TO) instead of the individual polluter connected to the grid. Harmonic mitigation studies were conducted on selected regions of the transmission network in England for recently connected offshore wind power plants to strategize and optimize selected harmonic filter options. The results – filter volume and capacity – were then compared against the mitigation measures adopted by the individual connections. Estimation ratios were developed based on the actual installed and optimal proposed filters. These estimation ratios were then used to derive harmonic filter requirements for future contracted connections. The study has concluded that a saving of 37% in the filter volume/capacity could be achieved if the TO is to centrally manage the harmonic mitigation instead of individual polluter installing their own mitigation solution.

Keywords: C-type filter, harmonics, optimization, offshore wind farms, interconnectors, HVDC, renewable energy, transmission owner

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Bushra Nabi, Saleha Rehman, Sanjula Baboota, Javed Ali

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Aim: The objective of research undertaken is analytical method validation (HPLC method) of an anti-HIV drug Elvitegravir (EVG). Additionally carrying out the forced degradation studies of the drug under different stress conditions to determine its stability. It is envisaged in order to determine the suitable technique for drug estimation, which would be employed in further research. Furthermore, comparative pharmacokinetic profile of the drug from lipid architectonics and drug suspension would be obtained post oral administration. Method: Lipid Architectonics (LA) of EVR was formulated using probe sonication technique and optimized using QbD (Box-Behnken design). For the estimation of drug during further analysis HPLC method has been validation on the parameters (Linearity, Precision, Accuracy, Robustness) and Limit of Detection (LOD) and Limit of Quantification (LOQ) has been determined. Furthermore, HPLC quantification of forced degradation studies was carried out under different stress conditions (acid induced, base induced, oxidative, photolytic and thermal). For pharmacokinetic (PK) study, Albino Wistar rats were used weighing between 200-250g. Different formulations were given per oral route, and blood was collected at designated time intervals. A plasma concentration profile over time was plotted from which the following parameters were determined:

Keywords: AIDS, Elvitegravir, HPLC, nanostructured lipid carriers, pharmacokinetics

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Jeron Maheswaran, Sudath C. Siriwardane

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In fatigue analysis, the structural detail of tubular joint has taken great attention among engineers. The DNV-RP-C203 is covering this topic quite well for simple and clear joint cases. For complex joint and geometry, where joint classification isn’t available and limitation on validity range of non-dimensional geometric parameters, the challenges become a fact among engineers. The classification of joint is important to carry out through the fatigue analysis. These joint configurations are identified by the connectivity and the load distribution of tubular joints. To overcome these problems to some extent, this paper compare the fatigue life of tubular joints in offshore jacket according to the stress concentration factors (SCF) in DNV-RP-C203 and finite element method employed Abaqus/CAE. The paper presents the geometric details, material properties and considered load history of the jacket structure. Describe the global structural analysis and identification of critical tubular joints for fatigue life estimation. Hence fatigue life is determined based on the guidelines provided by design codes. Fatigue analysis of tubular joints is conducted using finite element employed Abaqus/CAE [4] as next major step. Finally, obtained SCFs and fatigue lives are compared and their significances are discussed.

Keywords: fatigue life, stress-concentration factor, finite element analysis, offshore jacket structure

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Authors: Majid Saaly, Shahriar Tavousi Tafreshi, Mehdi Nazari Afshar

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Most reinforced concrete structures are designed only under heavy loads have large transverse reinforcement spacing values, and therefore suffer severe failure after intense ground movements. The main goal of this paper is to compare the shear- and axial failure of concrete bending frames available in Tehran using incremental dynamic analysis under near- and far-field records. For this purpose, IDA analyses of 5, 10, and 15-story concrete structures were done under seven far-fault records and five near-faults records. The results show that in two-dimensional models of short-rise, mid-rise and high-rise reinforced concrete frames located on Type-3 soil, increasing the distance of the transverse reinforcement can increase the maximum inter-story drift ratio values up to 37%. According to the existing results on 5, 10, and 15-story reinforced concrete models located on Type-3 soil, records with characteristics such as fling-step and directivity create maximum drift values between floors more than far-fault earthquakes. The results indicated that in the case of seismic excitation modes under earthquake encompassing directivity or fling-step, the probability values of failure and failure possibility increasing rate values are much smaller than the corresponding values of far-fault earthquakes. However, in near-fault frame records, the probability of exceedance occurs at lower seismic intensities compared to far-fault records.

Keywords: IDA, failure curve, directivity, maximum floor drift, fling step, evaluating probable bending of frames, near-field and far-field earthquake records

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Authors: S. Farid F. Mojtahedi, Ali Khosravi, Behnaz Naeimian, S. Adel A. Hosseini

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Land subsidence is a gradual settling or sudden sinking of the land surface from changes that take place underground. There are different causes of land subsidence; most notably, ground-water overdraft and severe weather conditions. Subsidence of the land surface due to ground water overdraft is caused by an increase in the intergranular pressure in unconsolidated aquifers, which results in a loss of buoyancy of solid particles in the zone dewatered by the falling water table and accordingly compaction of the aquifer. On the other hand, exploitation of underground water may result in significant changes in degree of saturation of soil layers above the water table, increasing the effective stress in these layers, and considerable soil settlements. This study focuses on estimation of soil moisture at surface using different methods. Specifically, different methods for the estimation of moisture content at the soil surface, as an important term to solve Richard’s equation and estimate soil moisture profile are presented, and their results are discussed through comparison with field measurements obtained from Yanco1 station in south-eastern Australia. Surface soil moisture is not easy to measure at the spatial scale of a catchment. Due to the heterogeneity of soil type, land use, and topography, surface soil moisture may change considerably in space and time.

Keywords: artificial neural network, empirical method, remote sensing, surface soil moisture, unsaturated soil

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Authors: Adewale I. Adeolu, Vivian U. Oleforuh-Okoleh, Sylvester N. Ibe

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Heritability and repeatability estimates are needed for the genetic evaluation of livestock populations and consequently for the purpose of upgrading or improvement. Pooled data on 604 progeny from three consecutive parities of purebred rabbit breeds (Chinchilla, Dutch and New Zealand white) raised in Derived Savanna Zone of Nigeria were used to estimate heritability and repeatability for pre-weaning body weights between 1st and 8th week of age. Traits studied include Individual kit weight at birth (IKWB), 2nd week (IK2W), 4th week (IK4W), 6th week (IK6W) and 8th week (IK8W). Nested random effects analysis of (Co)variances as described by Statistical Analysis System (SAS) were employed in the estimation. Respective heritability estimates from the sire component (h2s) and repeatability (R) as intra-class correlations of repeated measurements from the three parties for IKWB, IK2W, IK4W and IK8W are 0.59±0.24, 0.55±0.24, 0.93±0.31, 0.28±0.17, 0.64±0.26 and 0.12±0.14, 0.05±0.14, 0.58±0.02, 0.60±0.11, 0.20±0.14. Heritability and repeatability (except R for IKWB and IK2W) estimates are moderate to high. In conclusion, since pre-weaning body weights in the present study tended to be moderately to highly heritable and repeatable, improvement of rabbits raised in derived savanna zone can be realized through genetic selection criterions.

Keywords: heritability, nested design, parity, pooled data, repeatability

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Authors: Umesh Kumar Singh, Chanchala Joshi

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With increasing dependency on IT infrastructure, the main objective of a system administrator is to maintain a stable and secure network, with ensuring that the network is robust enough against malicious network users like attackers and intruders. Security risk management provides a way to manage the growing threats to infrastructures or system. This paper proposes a framework for risk level estimation which uses vulnerability database National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) National Vulnerability Database (NVD) and the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS). The proposed framework measures the frequency of vulnerability exploitation; converges this measured frequency with standard CVSS score and estimates the security risk level which helps in automated and reasonable security management. In this paper equation for the Temporal score calculation with respect to availability of remediation plan is derived and further, frequency of exploitation is calculated with determined temporal score. The frequency of exploitation along with CVSS score is used to calculate the security risk level of the system. The proposed framework uses the CVSS vectors for risk level estimation and measures the security level of specific network environment, which assists system administrator for assessment of security risks and making decision related to mitigation of security risks.

Keywords: CVSS score, risk level, security measurement, vulnerability category

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Authors: Gebrekiros Welegebriel Asfaw

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The management of the fragile, unique and irreplaceable cultural heritage from different perspectives is becoming a major challenge as important elements of culture are vanishing throughout the globe. The major purpose of this study is to assess how the cultural heritages of Aksum are managed for their future sustainability from heritage conservation and interpretation perspectives. Descriptive type of research design inculcating both quantitative and qualitative research methods is employed. Primary quantitative data was collected from 189 respondents (19 professionals, 88 tourism service providers and 82 tourists) and interview was conducted with 33 targeted informants from heritage and related professions, security employees, local community, service providers and church representatives by applying probability and non probability sampling methods. Findings of the study reveal that the overall sustainable management status of the cultural heritage of Aksum is below average. It is found that the sustainability of cultural heritage management in Aksum is facing a lot of unfavorable factors like lack of long term planning, incompatible system of heritage administration, limited capacity and number of professionals, scant attention to community based heritage and tourism development, dirtiness and drainage problems, problems with stakeholder involvement and cooperation, lack of organized interpretation and presentation systems and others. So, re-organization of the management system, creating platform for coordination among stakeholders and developing appropriate interpretation system can be good remedies. Introducing community based heritage and tourism development concept is also recommendable for a long term win-win success in Aksum.

Keywords: Aksum, conservation, interpretation, Sustainable Cultural Heritage Management

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Authors: Anna Siuda-Bak

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This paper adopts a comparative approach to examining the determinants of international mobility of German, Italian and British researchers who completed their doctoral education in the UK. Structured sampling and data collection techniques have been developed in order to retrieve information on participants from publicly available sources. This systematically collected data was supplemented with an on-line survey which captures participants’ job trajectories, including movements between positions, institutions and countries. In total, data on 949 German, Italian and British PhDs was collected. Logistic regression was employed to identify factors associated with one’s probability of moving outside the UK after his or her graduation. The predictor variables included factors associated with one’s PhD (field of study, ranking of the university which awarded the PhD degree) and family factors (having a child, nationality of the partner). Then, 9 constrained models were estimated to test the effect each variable has on probability of going to a specific destination, being English-speaking country, non-English speaking country or returning to the home country. The results show that females, arts and humanities graduates, and respondents with a partner from the UK are less mobile than their counterparts. The effect of the ranking of the university differed in two groups. The UK graduates from higher ranked universities were more likely to move abroad than to stay in the UK after their graduation. In contrast, non-UK natives from the same universities were less likely to be internationally mobile than non-UK natives from lower ranked universities. The nationality of the partner was the most important predictor of the specific destination choices. Graduates with partner from the home county were more likely to return home and those with a partner from the third country least likely to return.

Keywords: doctoral graduates, international mobility, nationality, UK

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Authors: Fatima Babar, Majid I. Khan, Malik Najmus Saqib, Muhammad Tahir

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This article provides range based improvements over a well-known single-hop range free localization scheme, Approximate Point in Triangulation (APIT) by proposing an energy efficient Barycentric coordinate based Point-In-Triangulation (PIT) test along with PIT based trilateration. These improvements result in energy efficiency, reduced localization error and improved localization coverage compared to APIT and its variants. Moreover, we propose to embed Received signal strength indication (RSSI) based distance estimation in DV-Hop which is a multi-hop localization scheme. The proposed localization algorithm achieves energy efficiency and reduced localization error compared to DV-Hop and its available improvements. Furthermore, a hybrid multi-hop localization scheme is also proposed that utilize Barycentric coordinate based PIT test and both range based (Received signal strength indicator) and range free (hop count) techniques for distance estimation. Our experimental results provide evidence that proposed hybrid multi-hop localization scheme results in two to five times reduction in the localization error compare to DV-Hop and its variants, at reduced energy requirements.

Keywords: Localization, Trilateration, Triangulation, Wireless Sensor Networks

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Authors: Anosh Arshad Sundhu, Francesco Giordano, Giacomo Della Croce, Maurizio Arnone

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Digital Twin (DT) is a technology that generates a virtual representation of a physical system or process, enabling real-time monitoring, analysis, and simulation. DT of an Electrical Distribution System (EDS) can perform online analysis by integrating the static and real-time data in order to show the current grid status and predictions about the future status to the Distribution System Operator (DSO), producers and consumers. DT technology for EDS also offers the opportunity to DSO to test hypothetical scenarios. This paper discusses the development of a DT of an EDS by Smart Grid Controller (SGC) application, which is developed using open-source libraries and languages. The developed application can be integrated with Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition System (SCADA) of any EDS for creating the DT. The paper shows the performance of developed tools inside the application, tested on real EDS for grid observability, Smart Recursive Load Flow (SRLF) calculation and state estimation of loads in MV feeders.

Keywords: digital twin, distributed energy resources, remote terminal units, supervisory control and data acquisition system, smart recursive load flow

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Authors: Sudipt Agarwal, Siddharth Verma, S. M. Iqbal, Hitik Kalra

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Natural gas as a fuel has created wonders, but on the contrary, the ill-effects of methane have been a great worry for professionals. The largest source of methane emission is the oil and gas industry among all industries. Methane depletes groundwater and being a greenhouse gas has devastating effects on the atmosphere too. Methane remains for a decade or two in the atmosphere and later breaks into carbon dioxide and thus damages it immensely, as it warms up the atmosphere 72 times more than carbon dioxide in those two decades and keeps on harming after breaking into carbon dioxide afterward. The property of a fluid to adhere to the surface of a solid, better known as adsorption, can be a great boon to minimize the hindrance caused by methane. Adsorption of methane during upstream processes can save the groundwater and atmospheric depletion around the site which can be hugely lucrative to earn profits which are reduced due to environmental degradation leading to project cancellation. The paper would deal with reasons why casing and cementing are not able to prevent leakage and would suggest methods to adsorb methane during upstream processes with mathematical explanation using volumetric analysis of adsorption of methane on the surface of activated carbon doped with copper oxides (which increases the absorption by 54%). The paper would explain in detail (through a cost estimation) how the proposed idea can be hugely beneficial not only to environment but also to the profits earned.

Keywords: adsorption, casing, cementing, cost estimation, volumetric analysis

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Authors: Benson Ade Eniola Afere

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This paper introduces a family of fourth-order hybrid beta polynomial kernels developed for statistical analysis. The assessment of these kernels' performance centers on two critical metrics: asymptotic mean integrated squared error (AMISE) and kernel efficiency. Through the utilization of both simulated and real-world datasets, a comprehensive evaluation was conducted, facilitating a thorough comparison with conventional fourth-order polynomial kernels. The evaluation procedure encompassed the computation of AMISE and efficiency values for both the proposed hybrid kernels and the established classical kernels. The consistently observed trend was the superior performance of the hybrid kernels when compared to their classical counterparts. This trend persisted across diverse datasets, underscoring the resilience and efficacy of the hybrid approach. By leveraging these performance metrics and conducting evaluations on both simulated and real-world data, this study furnishes compelling evidence in favour of the superiority of the proposed hybrid beta polynomial kernels. The discernible enhancement in performance, as indicated by lower AMISE values and higher efficiency scores, strongly suggests that the proposed kernels offer heightened suitability for statistical analysis tasks when compared to traditional kernels.

Keywords: AMISE, efficiency, fourth-order Kernels, hybrid Kernels, Kernel density estimation

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Authors: P. V. S. Mascarenhas, B. C. P. Albuquerque, D. J. F. Campos, L. L. Almeida, V. R. Domingues, L. C. S. M. Ozelim

Abstract:

Retaining slope structures are increasingly considered in geotechnical engineering projects due to extensive urban cities growth. These kinds of engineering constructions may present instabilities over the time and may require reinforcement or even rebuilding of the structure. In this context, statistical analysis is an important tool for decision making regarding retaining structures. This study approaches the failure probability of the construction of a retaining wall over the debris of an old and collapsed one. The new solution’s extension length will be of approximately 350 m and will be located over the margins of the Lake Paranoá, Brasilia, in the capital of Brazil. The building process must also account for the utilization of the ruins as a caisson. A series of in situ and laboratory experiments defined local soil strength parameters. A Standard Penetration Test (SPT) defined the in situ soil stratigraphy. Also, the parameters obtained were verified using soil data from a collection of masters and doctoral works from the University of Brasília, which is similar to the local soil. Initial studies show that the concrete wall is the proper solution for this case, taking into account the technical, economic and deterministic analysis. On the other hand, in order to better analyze the statistical significance of the factor-of-safety factors obtained, a Monte Carlo analysis was performed for the concrete wall and two more initial solutions. A comparison between the statistical and risk results generated for the different solutions indicated that a Gabion solution would better fit the financial and technical feasibility of the project.

Keywords: economical analysis, probability of failure, retaining walls, statistical analysis

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Authors: Abdulsalam M. Alhawsawi

Abstract:

Estimation of a radiation detector's efficiency plays a significant role in calculating the activity of radioactive samples. Detector efficiency is measured using sources that emit a variety of energies from low to high-energy photons along the energy spectrum. Some photon energies are hard to find in lab settings either because check sources are hard to obtain or the sources have short half-lives. This work aims to develop a method to determine the efficiency of a High Purity Germanium Detector (HPGe) based on the 662 keV gamma ray photon emitted from Cs-137. Cesium-137 is readily available in most labs with radiation detection and health physics applications and has a long half-life of ~30 years. Several photon efficiencies were calculated using the MCNP5 simulation code. The simulated efficiency of the 662 keV photon was used as a base to calculate other photon efficiencies in a point source and a Marinelli Beaker form. In the Marinelli Beaker filled with water case, the efficiency of the 59 keV low energy photons from Am-241 was estimated with a 9% error compared to the MCNP5 simulated efficiency. The 1.17 and 1.33 MeV high energy photons emitted by Co-60 had errors of 4% and 5%, respectively. The estimated errors are considered acceptable in calculating the activity of unknown samples as they fall within the 95% confidence level.

Keywords: MCNP5, MonteCarlo simulations, efficiency calculation, absolute efficiency, activity estimation, Cs-137

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Authors: Lavanya Annadi, Fahimeh Jafari

Abstract:

Transportation brings immense benefits to society, but it also has its costs. Costs include such as the cost of infrastructure, personnel and equipment, but also the loss of life and property in traffic accidents on the road, delays in travel due to traffic congestion and various indirect costs in terms of air transport. More research has been done to identify the various factors that affect road accidents, such as road infrastructure, traffic, sociodemographic characteristics, land use, and the environment. The aim of this research is to predict the probabilistic crash prediction of vehicles using machine learning due to natural and structural reasons by excluding spontaneous reasons like overspeeding etc., in the United States. These factors range from weather factors, like weather conditions, precipitation, visibility, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, pressure, and humidity to human made structures like road structure factors like bump, roundabout, no exit, turning loop, give away, etc. Probabilities are dissected into ten different classes. All the predictions are based on multiclass classification techniques, which are supervised learning. This study considers all crashes that happened in all states collected by the US government. To calculate the probability, multinomial expected value was used and assigned a classification label as the crash probability. We applied three different classification models, including multiclass Logistic Regression, Random Forest and XGBoost. The numerical results show that XGBoost achieved a 75.2% accuracy rate which indicates the part that is being played by natural and structural reasons for the crash. The paper has provided in-deep insights through exploratory data analysis.

Keywords: road safety, crash prediction, exploratory analysis, machine learning

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Authors: Maria Arechavaleta, Mark Halpin

Abstract:

In the United States, costs of solar energy systems have declined to the point that they are viable options for most consumers. However, there are no consistent procedures for specifying sufficient systems. The factors that must be considered are energy consumption, potential solar energy production, and cost. The traditional method of specifying solar energy systems is based on assumed daily levels of available solar energy and average amounts of daily energy consumption. The mismatches between energy production and consumption are usually mitigated using battery energy storage systems, and energy use is curtailed when necessary. The main consumer decision question that drives the total system cost is how much unserved (or curtailed) energy is acceptable? Of course additional solar conversion equipment can be installed to provide greater peak energy production and extra energy storage capability can be added to mitigate longer lasting low solar energy production periods. Each option increases total cost and provides a benefit which is difficult to quantify accurately. An approach to quantify the cost-benefit of adding additional resources, either production or storage or both, based on the statistical concepts of loss-of-energy probability and expected unserved energy, is presented in this paper. Relatively simple calculations, based on site-specific energy availability and consumption data, can be used to show the value of each additional increment of production or storage. With this incremental benefit-cost information, consumers can select the best overall performance combination for their application at a cost they are comfortable paying. The approach is based on a statistical analysis of energy consumption and production characteristics over time. The characteristics are in the forms of curves with each point on the curve representing an energy consumption or production value over a period of time; a one-minute period is used for the work in this paper. These curves are measured at the consumer location under the conditions that exist at the site and the duration of the measurements is a minimum of one week. While greater accuracy could be obtained with longer recording periods, the examples in this paper are based on a single week for demonstration purposes. The weekly consumption and production curves are overlaid on each other and the mismatches are used to size the battery energy storage system. Loss-of-energy probability and expected unserved energy indices are calculated in addition to the total system cost. These indices allow the consumer to recognize and quantify the benefit (probably a reduction in energy consumption curtailment) available for a given increase in cost. Consumers can then make informed decisions that are accurate for their location and conditions and which are consistent with their available funds.

Keywords: battery energy storage systems, loss of load probability, residential renewable energy, solar energy systems

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Authors: P. Deepak Kumar, P. R. Maiti

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In recent years, sediment scour near bridge piers and abutment is a serious problem which causes nationwide concern because it has resulted in more bridge failures than other causes. Scour is the formation of scour hole around the structure mounted on and embedded in erodible channel bed due to the erosion of soil by flowing water. The formation of scour hole around the structures depends upon shape and size of the pier, depth of flow as well as angle of attack of flow and sediment characteristics. The flow characteristics around these structures change due to man-made obstruction in the natural flow path which changes the kinetic energy of the flow around these structures. Excessive scour affects the stability of the foundation of the structure by the removal of the bed material. The accurate estimation of scour depth around bridge pier is very difficult. The foundation of bridge piers have to be taken deeper and to provide sufficient anchorage length required for stability of the foundation. In this study, computational model simulations using a 3D Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model were conducted to examine the mechanism of scour around a cylindrical pier. Subsequently, the flow characteristics around these structures are presented for different flow conditions. Mechanism of scouring phenomenon, the formation of vortex and its consequent effect is discussed for a straight channel. Effort was made towards estimation of scour depth around bridge piers under different flow conditions.

Keywords: bridge pier, computational fluid dynamics, multigrid, pier shape, scour

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Authors: Nizar Ghali, Bernard Fortin, Guy Lacroix

Abstract:

In Quebec, colonoscopies volumes have continued to rise in recent years in the absence of effective monitoring mechanism for the appropriateness and the quality of these exams. In 2010, November, Quebec Government introduced the colorectal cancer-screening program in the objective to control for volume and cost imperfection. This program is based on clinical standards and was initiated for first group of institutions. One year later, Government adds financial incentives for participants institutions. In this analysis, we want to assess for the causal effect of the two components of this program: clinical pathways and financial incentives. Especially we assess for the reform effect on healthcare quality and population health in the context that medical remuneration is not directly dependent on this additional funding offered by the program. We have data on admissions episodes and deaths for 8 years. We use multistate model analog to difference in difference approach to estimate reform effect on the transition probability between different states for each patient. Our results show that the reform reduced length of stay without deterioration in hospital mortality or readmission rate. In the other hand, the program contributed to decrease the hospitalization rate and a less invasive treatment approach for colorectal surgeries. This is a sign of healthcare quality and population health improvement. We demonstrate in this analysis that physicians’ behavior can be affected by both clinical standards and financial incentives even if offered to facilities.

Keywords: multi-state and multi-episode transition model, healthcare quality, length of stay, transition probability, difference in difference

Procedia PDF Downloads 200

Authors: Pratima Pokharel

Abstract:

When sewer overflow due to rainfall in urban areas, this leads to public health risks when an individual is exposed to that contaminated floodwater. Nevertheless, it is still unclear the extent to which the infections pose a risk to public health. This study analyzed reported diarrheal cases by month and age in Bangkok, Thailand. The results showed that the cases are reported higher in the wet season than in the dry season. It was also found that in Bangkok, the probability of infection with diarrheal diseases in the wet season is higher for the age group between 15 to 44. However, the probability of infection is highest for kids under 5 years, but they are not influenced by wet weather. Further, this study introduced a vulnerability that leads to health risks from urban flooding. This study has found some vulnerability variables that contribute to health risks from flooding. Thus, for vulnerability analysis, the study has chosen two variables, economic status, and age, that contribute to health risk. Assuming that the people's economic status depends on the types of houses they are living in, the study shows the spatial distribution of economic status in the vulnerability maps. The vulnerability map result shows that people living in Sukhumvit have low vulnerability to health risks with respect to the types of houses they are living in. In addition, from age the probability of infection of diarrhea was analyzed. Moreover, a field survey was carried out to validate the vulnerability of people. It showed that health vulnerability depends on economic status, income level, and education. The result depicts that people with low income and poor living conditions are more vulnerable to health risks. Further, the study also carried out 1D Hydrodynamic Advection-Dispersion modelling with 2-year rainfall events to simulate the dispersion of fecal coliform concentration in the drainage network as well as 1D/2D Hydrodynamic model to simulate the overland flow. The 1D result represents higher concentrations for dry weather flows and a large dilution of concentration on the commencement of a rainfall event, resulting in a drop of the concentration due to runoff generated after rainfall, whereas the model produced flood depth, flood duration, and fecal coliform concentration maps, which were transferred to ArcGIS to produce hazard and risk maps. In addition, the study also simulates the 5-year and 10-year rainfall simulations to show the variation in health hazards and risks. It was found that even though the hazard coverage is very high with a 10-year rainfall events among three rainfall events, the risk was observed to be the same with a 5-year and 10-year rainfall events.

Keywords: urban flooding, risk, hazard, vulnerability, health risk, framework

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