Search results for: multi variable decision making
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 12251

Search results for: multi variable decision making

4631 Using CFRP Sheets and Anchors on Sand-Lightweight Perlite Concrete to Evaluate the Flexural Behaviour of T-Beams

Authors: Mohammed Zaki, Hayder Rasheed

Abstract:

This paper evaluates the flexural response of sand-lightweight Perlite concrete using full-scale reinforced concrete T beams strengthened and anchored with carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) materials. Four specimens were prepared with the same geometry, steel reinforcements, concrete properties, and span lengths. The anchored beams had a similar number of CFRP sheets but were secured utilizing different arrangements of CFRP fiber anchors. That will allow for effective and easily making comparisons to examine the flexural strengthening behavior of sand-lightweight Perlite concrete beams with anchors. The experimental outcomes were also compared with the numerical study and the comparisons were discussed. The test results showed an improvement in flexural behavior due to the use of CFRP sheets and anchors. Interestingly, the anchored beams recorded similar ultimate strength regardless of the number of CFRP fiber anchors used due to the failure by excessive wide cracks in the concrete.

Keywords: perlite concrete, CFRP fiber anchors, lightweight concrete, full-scale T-beams

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4630 Parameter Estimation of Additive Genetic and Unique Environment (AE) Model on Diabetes Mellitus Type 2 Using Bayesian Method

Authors: Andi Darmawan, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih

Abstract:

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a chronic disease in human that occurred if pancreas cannot produce enough of insulin hormone or the body uses ineffectively insulin hormone which causes increasing level of glucose in the blood, or it was called hyperglycemia. In Indonesia, DM is a serious disease on health because it can cause blindness, kidney disease, diabetic feet (gangrene), and stroke. The type of DM criteria can also be divided based on the main causes; they are DM type 1, type 2, and gestational. Diabetes type 1 or previously known as insulin-independent diabetes is due to a lack of production of insulin hormone. Diabetes type 2 or previously known as non-insulin dependent diabetes is due to ineffective use of insulin while gestational diabetes is a hyperglycemia that found during pregnancy. The most one type commonly found in patient is DM type 2. The main factors of this disease are genetic (A) and life style (E). Those disease with 2 factors can be constructed with additive genetic and unique environment (AE) model. In this article was discussed parameter estimation of AE model using Bayesian method and the inheritance character simulation on parent-offspring. On the AE model, there are response variable, predictor variables, and parameters were capable of representing the number of population on research. The population can be measured through a taken random sample. The response and predictor variables can be determined by sample while the parameters are unknown, so it was required to estimate the parameters based on the sample. Estimation of AE model parameters was obtained based on a joint posterior distribution. The simulation was conducted to get the value of genetic variance and life style variance. The results of simulation are 0.3600 for genetic variance and 0.0899 for life style variance. Therefore, the variance of genetic factor in DM type 2 is greater than life style.

Keywords: AE model, Bayesian method, diabetes mellitus type 2, genetic, life style

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4629 Optimizing SCADA/RTU Control System Alarms for Gas Wells

Authors: Mohammed Ali Faqeeh

Abstract:

SCADA System Alarms Optimization Process has been introduced recently and applied accordingly in different implemented stages. First, MODBUS communication protocols between RTU/SCADA were improved at the level of I/O points scanning intervals. Then, some of the technical issues related to manufacturing limitations were resolved. Afterward, another approach was followed to take a decision on the configured alarms database. So, a couple of meetings and workshops were held among all system stakeholders, which resulted in an agreement of disabling unnecessary (Diagnostic) alarms. Moreover, a leap forward step was taken to segregate the SCADA Operator Graphics in a way to show only process-related alarms while some other graphics will ensure the availability of field alarms related to maintenance and engineering purposes. This overall system management and optimization have resulted in a huge effective impact on all operations, maintenance, and engineering. It has reduced unneeded open tickets for maintenance crews which led to reduce the driven mileages accordingly. Also, this practice has shown a good impression on the operation reactions and response to the emergency situations as the SCADA operators can be staying much vigilant on the real alarms rather than gets distracted by noisy ones. SCADA System Alarms Optimization process has been executed utilizing all applicable in-house resources among engineering, maintenance, and operations crews. The methodology of the entire enhanced scopes is performed through various stages.

Keywords: SCADA, RTU Communication, alarm management system, SCADA alarms, Modbus, DNP protocol

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4628 Energy Efficiency Retrofitting of Residential Buildings Case Study: Multi-Family Apartment Building in Tripoli, Lebanon

Authors: Yathreb Sabsaby

Abstract:

Energy efficiency retrofitting of existing buildings was long ignored by public authorities who favored energy efficiency policies in new buildings, which are easier to implement. Indeed, retrofitting is more complex and difficult to organize because of the extreme diversity in existing buildings, administrative situations and occupation. Energy efficiency retrofitting of existing buildings has now become indispensable in all economies—even emerging countries—given the constraints imposed by energy security and climate change, and because it represents considerable potential energy savings. Addressing energy efficiency in the existing building stock has been acknowledged as one of the most critical yet challenging aspects of reducing our environmental footprint on the ecosystem. Tripoli, Lebanon chosen as case study area is a typical Mediterranean metropolis in the North Lebanon, where multifamily residential buildings are all around the city. This generally implies that the density of energy demand is extremely high, even the renewable energy facilities are involved, they can just play as a minor energy provider at the current technology level in the single family house. It seems only the low energy design for buildings can be made possible, not the zero energy certainly in developing country. This study reviews the latest research and experience and provides recommendations for deep energy retrofits that aim to save more than 50% of the energy used in a typical Tripoli apartment building.

Keywords: energy-efficiency, existing building, multifamily residential building, retrofit

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4627 Peak Data Rate Enhancement Using Switched Micro-Macro Diversity in Cellular Multiple-Input-Multiple-Output Systems

Authors: Jihad S. Daba, J. P. Dubois, Yvette Antar

Abstract:

With the exponential growth of cellular users, a new generation of cellular networks is needed to enhance the required peak data rates. The co-channel interference between neighboring base stations inhibits peak data rate increase. To overcome this interference, multi-cell cooperation known as coordinated multipoint transmission is proposed. Such a solution makes use of multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) systems under two different structures: Micro- and macro-diversity. In this paper, we study the capacity and bit error rate in cellular networks using MIMO technology. We analyse both micro- and macro-diversity schemes and develop a hybrid model that switches between macro- and micro-diversity in the case of hard handoff based on a cut-off range of signal-to-noise ratio values. We conclude that our hybrid switched micro-macro MIMO system outperforms classical MIMO systems at the cost of increased hardware and software complexity.

Keywords: cooperative multipoint transmission, ergodic capacity, hard handoff, macro-diversity, micro-diversity, multiple-input-multiple output systems, orthogonal frequency division multiplexing

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4626 Reaction Kinetics for the Pyrolysis of Urea Phosphate

Authors: P. A. Broodryk, A. F. Van Der Merwe, H. W. J. P. Neomagus

Abstract:

The production of the clear liquid fertilizer ammonium polyphosphate (APP) is best achieved by the pyrolysis of urea phosphate, as it produces a product that is free from any of the impurities present in the raw phosphoric acid it was made from. This is a multiphase, multi-step reaction that produces carbon dioxide and ammonia as gasses and ammonium polyphosphate as liquid products. The polyphosphate chain length affects the solubility and thus the applicability of the product as liquid fertiliser, thus proper control of the reaction conditions is thus required for the use of this reaction in the production of fertilisers. This study investigates the reaction kinetics of the aforementioned reaction, describing a mathematical model for the kinetics of the reaction along with the accompanying rate constants. The reaction is initially exothermic, producing only carbon dioxide as a gas product and ammonium diphosphate, at higher temperatures the reaction becomes endothermic, producing ammonia gas as an additional by-product and longer chain polyphosphates, which when condensed too far becomes highly water insoluble. The aim of this study was to (i) characterise the pyrolysis reaction of urea phosphate by determining the mechanisms and the associated kinetic constants, and (ii) to determine the optimum conditions for ammonium diphosphate production. A qualitative investigation was also done to find the rate of hydrolysis of APP as this provides an estimate of the shelf life of an APP clear liquid fertiliser solution.

Keywords: ammonium polyphosphate, kinetics, pyrolysis, urea phosphate

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4625 CTHTC: A Convolution-Backed Transformer Architecture for Temporal Knowledge Graph Embedding with Periodicity Recognition

Authors: Xinyuan Chen, Mohd Nizam Husen, Zhongmei Zhou, Gongde Guo, Wei Gao

Abstract:

Temporal Knowledge Graph Completion (TKGC) has attracted increasing attention for its enormous value; however, existing models lack capabilities to capture both local interactions and global dependencies simultaneously with evolutionary dynamics, while the latest achievements in convolutions and Transformers haven't been employed in this area. What’s more, periodic patterns in TKGs haven’t been fully explored either. To this end, a multi-stage hybrid architecture with convolution-backed Transformers is introduced in TKGC tasks for the first time combining the Hawkes process to model evolving event sequences in a continuous-time domain. In addition, the seasonal-trend decomposition is adopted to identify periodic patterns. Experiments on six public datasets are conducted to verify model effectiveness against state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods. An extensive ablation study is carried out accordingly to evaluate architecture variants as well as the contributions of independent components in addition, paving the way for further potential exploitation. Besides complexity analysis, input sensitivity and safety challenges are also thoroughly discussed for comprehensiveness with novel methods.

Keywords: temporal knowledge graph completion, convolution, transformer, Hawkes process, periodicity

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4624 A Recognition Method of Ancient Yi Script Based on Deep Learning

Authors: Shanxiong Chen, Xu Han, Xiaolong Wang, Hui Ma

Abstract:

Yi is an ethnic group mainly living in mainland China, with its own spoken and written language systems, after development of thousands of years. Ancient Yi is one of the six ancient languages in the world, which keeps a record of the history of the Yi people and offers documents valuable for research into human civilization. Recognition of the characters in ancient Yi helps to transform the documents into an electronic form, making their storage and spreading convenient. Due to historical and regional limitations, research on recognition of ancient characters is still inadequate. Thus, deep learning technology was applied to the recognition of such characters. Five models were developed on the basis of the four-layer convolutional neural network (CNN). Alpha-Beta divergence was taken as a penalty term to re-encode output neurons of the five models. Two fully connected layers fulfilled the compression of the features. Finally, at the softmax layer, the orthographic features of ancient Yi characters were re-evaluated, their probability distributions were obtained, and characters with features of the highest probability were recognized. Tests conducted show that the method has achieved higher precision compared with the traditional CNN model for handwriting recognition of the ancient Yi.

Keywords: recognition, CNN, Yi character, divergence

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4623 An Investigation of Interdisciplinary Techniques for Assessment of Water Quality in an Industrial Area

Authors: Priti Saha, Biswajit Paul

Abstract:

Rapid urbanization and industrialization have increased the demand of groundwater. However, the present era has evident an enormous level of groundwater pollution. Therefore, water quality assessment is paramount importance to evaluate its suitability for drinking, irrigation and industrial use. This study focus to evaluate the groundwater quality of an industrial city in eastern India through interdisciplinary techniques. The multi-purpose Water Quality Index (WQI) assess the suitability for drinking as well as irrigation of forty sampling locations, where 2.5% and 15% of sampling locations have excellent water quality (WQI:0-25) as well as 15% and 40% have good quality (WQI:25-50), which represents its suitability for drinking and irrigation respectively. However, the industrial water quality was assessed through Ryznar Stability Index (LSI), which affirmed that only 2.5% of sampling locations have neither corrosive nor scale forming properties (RSI: 6.2-6.8). These techniques with the integration of geographical information system (GIS) for spatial assessment indorsed its effectiveness to identify the regions where the water bodies are suitable to use for drinking, irrigation as well as industrial activities. Further, the sources of these contaminants were identified through factor analysis (FA), which revealed that both the geogenic as well as anthropogenic sources were responsible for groundwater pollution. This research demonstrates the effectiveness of statistical and GIS techniques for the analysis of environmental contaminants.

Keywords: groundwater, water quality analysis, water quality index, WQI, factor analysis, FA, spatial assessment

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4622 The TiO2 Refraction Film for CsI Scintillator

Authors: C. C. Chen, C. W. Hun, C. J. Wang, C. Y. Chen, J. S. Lin, K. J. Huang

Abstract:

Cesium iodide (CsI) melt was injected into anodic aluminum oxide (AAO) template and was solidified to CsI column. The controllable AAO channel size (10~500 nm) can makes CsI column size from 10 to500 nm in diameter. In order to have a shorter light irradiate from each singe CsI column top to bottom the AAO template was coated a TiO2 nano-film. The TiO2 film acts a refraction film and makes X-ray has a shorter irradiation path in the CsI crystal making a stronger the photo-electron signal. When the incidence light irradiate from air (R=1.0) to CsI’s first surface (R=1.84) the first refraction happen, the first refraction continue into TiO2 film (R=2.88) and produces the low angle of the second refraction. Then the second refraction continue into AAO wall (R=1.78) and produces the third refraction after refractions between CsI and AAO wall (R=1.78) produce the fourth refraction. The incidence light after through CsI and TiO2 film refractions arrive to the CsI second surface. Therefore, the TiO2 film can has shorter refraction path of incidence light and increase the photo-electron conversion efficiency.

Keywords: cesium iodide, anodic aluminum oxide (AAO), TiO2, refraction, X-ray

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4621 Electromagnetic Wave Propagation Equations in 2D by Finite Difference Method

Authors: N. Fusun Oyman Serteller

Abstract:

In this paper, the techniques to solve time dependent electromagnetic wave propagation equations based on the Finite Difference Method (FDM) are proposed by comparing the results with Finite Element Method (FEM) in 2D while discussing some special simulation examples.  Here, 2D dynamical wave equations for lossy media, even with a constant source, are discussed for establishing symbolic manipulation of wave propagation problems. The main objective of this contribution is to introduce a comparative study of two suitable numerical methods and to show that both methods can be applied effectively and efficiently to all types of wave propagation problems, both linear and nonlinear cases, by using symbolic computation. However, the results show that the FDM is more appropriate for solving the nonlinear cases in the symbolic solution. Furthermore, some specific complex domain examples of the comparison of electromagnetic waves equations are considered. Calculations are performed through Mathematica software by making some useful contribution to the programme and leveraging symbolic evaluations of FEM and FDM.

Keywords: finite difference method, finite element method, linear-nonlinear PDEs, symbolic computation, wave propagation equations

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4620 Experimental and Theoretical Analysis of the Electromagnetic Environment in the Vicinity of Two 220Kv Power Lines

Authors: Wafa Tourab, Abdessalem Babouri, Mohamed Nemamcha

Abstract:

This work presents an experimental and theoretical characterization of electromagnetic environment in the vicinity of EL-HADJAR high voltage substation located in the eastern Algerian within a very high populated zone. There have been analyses on the effects of electromagnetic fields emanating from coupled multi-lines power systems on the health of the workers and people living in proximity of substations. An experimental investigation has been conducted around a circuit of two 220Kv lines running in parallel. The experimental results are validated by a flexible code of calculus developed in the environment Matlab. The implications of the results are discussed and are in very good agreement with the ICNIRP reference levels for occupational and non-occupational exposures. In a case of study, the separation between the two structures “S” is varied to demonstrate its influence on the electric and magnetic charges quantities generated by the circuit of lines proposed. It is found that increasing S decreases the electric and magnetic fields which occur at the center of the structure then reduces the coupling between lines. We concluded that the evaluation of the spacing between the phase conductors is of paramount interest in the preparation of the line’s implantation inside the electrical posts to reduce them radiations in the environment.

Keywords: low frequency, electromagnetic fields, electromagnetic coupling, high voltage power lines

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4619 Application of Western and Islamic Philosophy to Business Ethics

Authors: Elmamy Ahmedsalem

Abstract:

The world has witnessed the collapse of many corporate giants as a result of unethical behavior in recent decades. This has induced a series of questions by the global community on why such occurrences could happen, even with corporate governance in place. This paper attempts to propose a philosophical approach from an Islamic perspective to be consolidated with current corporate governance in order to confront contemporary dilemmas. In this paper, ethical theories are presented as a discussion followed by their applications to modern cases of financial collapses. Virtue ethics by Aristotle, justice and fairness by John Rawls, deontology by Immanuel Kant, and utilitarianism by John Stuart Mill, are the four theories which can then be contrasted with the paradigm of Muslim scholars. Despite the differences between the fundamental principles of Islamic and Western worldviews, their ethical theories are aimed at making right decisions and solving ethical dilemmas based on what is good for society. Therefore, Islamic principles should be synthesized with Western philosophy to form a more coherent framework. The integration of Islamic and western ethical theories into business is important for sound corporate governance.

Keywords: business ethics, Islamic philosophy, western philosophy, Western and Islamic worldview of ethics

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4618 Application of Digital Image Correlation Technique on Vacuum Assisted Resin Transfer Molding Process and Performance Evaluation of the Produced Materials

Authors: Dingding Chen, Kazuo Arakawa, Masakazu Uchino, Changheng Xu

Abstract:

Vacuum assisted resin transfer moulding (VARTM) is a promising manufacture process for making large and complex fiber reinforced composite structures. However, the complexity of the flow of the resin in the infusion stage usually leads to nonuniform property distribution of the produced composite part. In order to control the flow of the resin, the situation of flow should be mastered. For the safety of the usage of the produced composite in practice, the understanding of the property distribution is essential. In this paper, we did some trials on monitoring the resin infusion stage and evaluation for the fiber volume fraction distribution of the VARTM produced composite using the digital image correlation methods. The results show that 3D-DIC is valid on monitoring the resin infusion stage and it is possible to use 2D-DIC to estimate the distribution of the fiber volume fraction on a FRP plate.

Keywords: digital image correlation, VARTM, FRP, fiber volume fraction

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4617 Logic Programming and Artificial Neural Networks in Pharmacological Screening of Schinus Essential Oils

Authors: José Neves, M. Rosário Martins, Fátima Candeias, Diana Ferreira, Sílvia Arantes, Júlio Cruz-Morais, Guida Gomes, Joaquim Macedo, António Abelha, Henrique Vicente

Abstract:

Some plants of genus Schinus have been used in the folk medicine as topical antiseptic, digestive, purgative, diuretic, analgesic or antidepressant, and also for respiratory and urinary infections. Chemical composition of essential oils of S. molle and S. terebinthifolius had been evaluated and presented high variability according with the part of the plant studied and with the geographic and climatic regions. The pharmacological properties, namely antimicrobial, anti-tumoural and anti-inflammatory activities are conditioned by chemical composition of essential oils. Taking into account the difficulty to infer the pharmacological properties of Schinus essential oils without hard experimental approach, this work will focus on the development of a decision support system, in terms of its knowledge representation and reasoning procedures, under a formal framework based on Logic Programming, complemented with an approach to computing centered on Artificial Neural Networks and the respective Degree-of-Confidence that one has on such an occurrence.

Keywords: artificial neuronal networks, essential oils, knowledge representation and reasoning, logic programming, Schinus molle L., Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi

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4616 Learning Management System Technologies for Teaching Computer Science at a Distance Education Institution

Authors: Leila Goosen, Dalize van Heerden

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The performance outcomes of first year Computer Science and Information Technology students across the world are of great concern, whether they are being taught in a face-to-face environment or via distance education. In the face-to-face environment, it is, however, somewhat easier to teach and support students than it is in a distance education environment. The face-to-face academic can more easily gauge the level of understanding and participation of students and implement interventions to address issues, which may arise. With the inroads that Web 2.0 and Web 3.0 technologies are making, the world of online teaching and learning are rapidly expanding, bringing about technologies, which allows for similar interactions between online academics and their students as available to their face-to-face counter parts. At the University of South Africa (UNISA), the Learning Management System (LMS) is called myUNISA and it is deployed on a SAKAI platform. In this paper, we will take a look at some of the myUNISA technologies implemented in the teaching of a first year programming course, how they are implemented and, in some cases, we will indicate how this affects the performance outcomes of students.

Keywords: computer science, Distance Education Technologies, Learning Management System, face-to-face environment

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4615 Development and Analysis of Multigeneration System by Using Combined Solar and Geothermal Energy Resources

Authors: Muhammad Umar Khan, Mahesh Kumar, Faraz Neakakhtar

Abstract:

Although industrialization marks to the economy of a country yet it increases the pollution and temperature of the environment. The world is now shifting towards green energy because the utilization of fossil fuels is resulting in global warming. So we need to develop systems that can operate on renewable energy resources and have low heat losses. The combined solar and geothermal multigeneration system can solve this issue. Rather than making rankine cycle purely a solar-driven, heat from solar is used to drive vapour absorption cycle and reheated to generate power using geothermal reservoir. The results are displayed by using Engineering Equation Solver software, where inputs are varied to optimize the energy and exergy efficiencies of the system. The cooling effect is 348.2 KW, while the network output is 23.8 MW and reducing resultant emission of 105553 tons of CO₂ per year. This eco-friendly multigeneration system is capable of eliminating the use of fossil fuels and increasing the geothermal energy efficiency.

Keywords: cooling effect, eco-friendly, green energy, heat loses, multigeneration system, renewable energy, work output

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4614 Creation of Computerized Benchmarks to Facilitate Preparedness for Biological Events

Authors: B. Adini, M. Oren

Abstract:

Introduction: Communicable diseases and pandemics pose a growing threat to the well-being of the global population. A vital component of protecting the public health is the creation and sustenance of a continuous preparedness for such hazards. A joint Israeli-German task force was deployed in order to develop an advanced tool for self-evaluation of emergency preparedness for variable types of biological threats. Methods: Based on a comprehensive literature review and interviews with leading content experts, an evaluation tool was developed based on quantitative and qualitative parameters and indicators. A modified Delphi process was used to achieve consensus among over 225 experts from both Germany and Israel concerning items to be included in the evaluation tool. Validity and applicability of the tool for medical institutions was examined in a series of simulation and field exercises. Results: Over 115 German and Israeli experts reviewed and examined the proposed parameters as part of the modified Delphi cycles. A consensus of over 75% of experts was attained for 183 out of 188 items. The relative importance of each parameter was rated as part of the Delphi process, in order to define its impact on the overall emergency preparedness. The parameters were integrated in computerized web-based software that enables to calculate scores of emergency preparedness for biological events. Conclusions: The parameters developed in the joint German-Israeli project serve as benchmarks that delineate actions to be implemented in order to create and maintain an ongoing preparedness for biological events. The computerized evaluation tool enables to continuously monitor the level of readiness and thus strengths and gaps can be identified and corrected appropriately. Adoption of such a tool is recommended as an integral component of quality assurance of public health and safety.

Keywords: biological events, emergency preparedness, bioterrorism, natural biological events

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4613 The Effect of Austempering Temperature on Anisotropy of TRIP Steel

Authors: Abdolreza Heidari Noosh Abad, Amir Abedi, Davood Mirahmadi khaki

Abstract:

The high strength and flexibility of TRIP steels are the major reasons for them being widely used in the automobile industry. Deep drawing is regarded as a common metal sheet manufacturing process is used extensively in the modern industry, particularly automobile industry. To investigate the potential of deep drawing characteristic of materials, steel sheet anisotropy is studied and expressed as R-Value. The TRIP steels have a multi-phase microstructure consisting typically of ferrite, bainite and retained austenite. The retained austenite appears to be the most effective phase in the microstructure of the TRIP steels. In the present research, Taguchi method has been employed to study investigates the effect of austempering temperature parameters on the anisotropy property of the TRIP steel. To achieve this purpose, a steel with chemical composition of 0.196C -1.42Si-1.41Mn, has been used and annealed at 810oC, and then austempered at 340-460oC for 3, 6, and 9 minutes. The results shows that the austempering temperature has a direct relationship with R-value, respectively. With increasing austempering temperature, residual austenite grain size increases as well as increased solubility, which increases the amount of R-value. According to the results of the Taguchi method, austempering temperature’s p-value less than 0.05 is due to effective on R-value.

Keywords: Taguchi method, hot rolling, thermomechanical process, anisotropy, R-value

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4612 Predicting Relative Performance of Sector Exchange Traded Funds Using Machine Learning

Authors: Jun Wang, Ge Zhang

Abstract:

Machine learning has been used in many areas today. It thrives at reviewing large volumes of data and identifying patterns and trends that might not be apparent to a human. Given the huge potential benefit and the amount of data available in the financial market, it is not surprising to see machine learning applied to various financial products. While future prices of financial securities are extremely difficult to forecast, we study them from a different angle. Instead of trying to forecast future prices, we apply machine learning algorithms to predict the direction of future price movement, in particular, whether a sector Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) would outperform or underperform the market in the next week or in the next month. We apply several machine learning algorithms for this prediction. The algorithms are Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Decision Tree (DT), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), and Neural Networks (NN). We show that these machine learning algorithms, most notably GNB and NN, have some predictive power in forecasting out-performance and under-performance out of sample. We also try to explore whether it is possible to utilize the predictions from these algorithms to outperform the buy-and-hold strategy of the S&P 500 index. The trading strategy to explore out-performance predictions does not perform very well, but the trading strategy to explore under-performance predictions can earn higher returns than simply holding the S&P 500 index out of sample.

Keywords: machine learning, ETF prediction, dynamic trading, asset allocation

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4611 Profitability Assessment of Granite Aggregate Production and the Development of a Profit Assessment Model

Authors: Melodi Mbuyi Mata, Blessing Olamide Taiwo, Afolabi Ayodele David

Abstract:

The purpose of this research is to create empirical models for assessing the profitability of granite aggregate production in Akure, Ondo state aggregate quarries. In addition, an artificial neural network (ANN) model and multivariate predicting models for granite profitability were developed in the study. A formal survey questionnaire was used to collect data for the study. The data extracted from the case study mine for this study includes granite marketing operations, royalty, production costs, and mine production information. The following methods were used to achieve the goal of this study: descriptive statistics, MATLAB 2017, and SPSS16.0 software in analyzing and modeling the data collected from granite traders in the study areas. The ANN and Multi Variant Regression models' prediction accuracy was compared using a coefficient of determination (R²), Root mean square error (RMSE), and mean square error (MSE). Due to the high prediction error, the model evaluation indices revealed that the ANN model was suitable for predicting generated profit in a typical quarry. More quarries in Nigeria's southwest region and other geopolitical zones should be considered to improve ANN prediction accuracy.

Keywords: national development, granite, profitability assessment, ANN models

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4610 Developing a Modified Version of KIVA-3V, Enabling Gaseous Injections

Authors: Hossein Keshtkar, Ali Nasiri Toosi

Abstract:

With the growing concerns about gasoline environmental pollution and also the need for a more widely available fuel source, natural gas is finding its way to the automotive engines. But before this could happen industrially, simulations of natural gas direct injection need to take place to maximize and optimize power output. KIVA is one of the most powerful tools when it comes to engine simulation. Widely accepted by both researchers and the industry, KIVA an open-source code, offers great in-depth simulation and analyzation. KIVA can compute complex phenomena’s which can occur inside the chamber before, whilst and after ignition. One downside to KIVA, is its in-capability of simulating gaseous injections, making it useful for only liquidized fuel. In this study, we developed a numerical code, to enable the simulation of gaseous injection within the KIVA code. By introducing our code as a subroutine, we modified the original KIVA program. To ensure the correct application of gaseous fuel injection using our modified KIVA code, we simulated two different cases and compared them with their experimental data. We concluded our modified version of KIVA’s simulation results came in very close to those measured experimentally.

Keywords: gaseous injections, KIVA, natural gas direct injection, numerical code, simulation

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4609 Extra-Pulmonary Mycoplasma Pneumoniae Infection in a Healthy 25-Year-Old Female: A Case Report

Authors: Minna Chang

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Introduction: M. pneumoniae is a respiratory pathogen, which commonly causes upper and lower respiratory infections. It primarily affects children and young adults. Respiratory symptoms are well recognized, but extrapulmonary involvement is also common. Other systems that have been implicated in the disease include: skin, mucus membranes, central, peripheral nervous systems, cardiovascular, haematological, renal, and musculoskeletal systems. Here, we report a case of an otherwise healthy, young female with M. pneumonia, who presented with right upper quadrant abdominal pain. Case presentation: a healthy 25-year-old female was referred to A&E by her general practitioner, after presenting with fever, malaise, and right upper quadrant pain. M. pneumoniae was confirmed retrospectively by serology. The patient made a full recovery after a six-day course of doxycycline 100mg. Conclusion: M. pneumonia is a well-established cause of respiratory infections in children and young adults. Febrile illness with multisystem involvement, even in the absence of respiratory symptoms, should raise suspicion of M. pneumoniae infection in healthy, young adults. Our case illustrates the multi-system involvement of M. pneumoniae, which was initially missed, due to paucity of respiratory symptoms at presentation.

Keywords: infectious diseases, mycoplasma pneumoniae, respiratory infections, extra-pulmonary manifestations

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4608 Consequences of Youth Bulge in Pakistan

Authors: Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Idrees

Abstract:

The present study has been designed to explore the causes and effects of Youth Bulge in Pakistan. However, youth bulge is a part of population segment which create problem for the whole society. The youth bulge is a common phenomenon in many developing countries, and in particular, in the least developed countries. It is often due to a stage of development where a country achieves success in reducing infant mortality but mothers still have a high fertility rate. The result is that a large share of the population is comprised of children and young adults, and today’s children are tomorrow’s young adults. Youth often play a prominent role in political violence and the existence of a “youth bulge” has been associated with times of political crisis. The population pyramid of Pakistan represents a large youth proportion and our government did not use that youth in positive way and did not provide them opportunity for development, this situation creates frustration in youth that leads them towards conflict, unrest and violence. This study will be focus on the opportunity and motives of the youth bulge situation in Pakistan in the lens of youth bulge theory. Moreover, it will give some suggestions to utilize youth in the development activities and avoid youth bulge situation in Pakistan. The present research was conducted in the metropolitan entities of Punjab, Pakistan. A sample of 300 respondents was taken from three randomly selected metropolitan entities (Faisalabad, Lahore and Rawalpindi) of Punjab Province of Pakistan. Information regarding demography, household, locality and other socio-cultural variables related to causes and effects of youth bulge in the state was collected through a well structured interview schedule. Mean, Standard Deviation and frequency distribution were used to check the measure of central tendency. Multiple linear regression was also applied to measure the influence of various independent variables on the response variable.

Keywords: youth bulge, violence, conflict, social unrest, crime, metropolitan entities, mean, standard deviation, multiple linear regression

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4607 Suboptimal Retiree Allocations with Housing

Authors: Asiye Aydilek, Harun Aydilek

Abstract:

We investigate the costs of various suboptimal allocations in housing, consumption, bond and stock holdings of a retiree in a setting with recursive utility, considering the extensive empirical evidence that investors make suboptimal decisions in different ways. We find that suboptimal stock holdings impose only modest costs on the retiree. This may have a merit in explaining the limited stock investment in the data. The cost of suboptimal bond holdings is higher than that of stocks, but still small. This may partially explain why many more people hold bonds compared to stocks. We find that positive deviations from the optimal level are less costly relative to the negative ones in suboptimal housing allocations. This may help us to clarify why the elderly are over consuming housing, as seen in the housing data. The cost of suboptimal consumption is quite high and the highest of all. Our paper suggests that, in terms of welfare, the decisions of how much of liquid wealth to use for consumption and for saving are more important than the decision about the composition of liquid savings. Suboptimal stock holdings are twice more costly in power utility and suboptimal bond holdings are twenty times more costly in recursive utility. Recursive utility is superior to power utility in terms of rationalizing many people's preference for bonds instead of stocks in investment.

Keywords: housing, recursive utility, retirement, suboptimal decisions, welfare cost

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4606 Conformal Noble Metal High-Entropy Alloy Nanofilms by Atomic Layer Deposition for Enhanced Hydrogen Evolution Reaction/Oxygen Evolution Reaction Electrocatalysis Applications

Authors: Jing Lin, Zou Yiming, Goei Ronn, Li Yun, Amanda Ong Jiamin, Alfred Tok Iing Yoong

Abstract:

High-entropy alloy (HEA) coatings comprise multiple (five or more) principal elements that give superior mechanical, electrical, and thermal properties. However, the current synthesis methods of HEA coating still face huge challenges in facile and controllable preparation, as well as conformal integration, which seriously restricts their potential applications. Herein, we report a controllable synthesis of conformal quinary HEA coating consisting of noble metals (Rh, Ru, Ir, Pt, and Pd) by using the atomic layer deposition (ALD) with a post-annealing approach. This approach realizes low temperature (below 200 °C), precise control (nanoscale), and conformal synthesis (over complex substrates) of HEA coating. Furthermore, the resulting quinary HEA coating shows promising potential as a platform for catalysis, exhibiting substantially enhanced electrocatalytic hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) and oxygen evolution reaction (OER) performances as compared to other noble metal-based structures such as single metal coating or multi-layered metal composites.

Keywords: high-entropy alloy, thin-film, catalysis, water splitting, atomic layer deposition

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4605 Unreality of Real: Debordean Reading of Gillian Flynn's Gone Girl

Authors: Sahand Hamed Moeel Ardebil, Zohreh Taebi Noghondari, Mahmood Reza Ghorban Sabbagh

Abstract:

Gillian Flynn’s Gone Girl, depicts a society in which, as a result of media dominance, the reality is very precarious and difficult to grasp. In Gone Girl, reality and image of reality represented on TV, are challenging to differentiate. Along with reality, individuals’ agency and independence before media and the capitalist rule are called in to question in the novel. In order to expose the unstable nature of reality and an individual’s complicated relationship with media, this study has deployed the ideas of Marxist-media theorist Guy Debord (1931-1992). In his book Society of the Spectacle (1966), Debord delineates a society in which images replace the objective reality, and people are incapable of making real changes. The results of the current study show that despite their efforts, Nick and Amy, the two main characters of the novel, are no more than spectators with very little agency before the media. Moreover, following Debord’s argument about the replacement of reality with images, everyone and every institution in Gone Girl projects an image that does not necessarily embody the objective reality, a fact that makes it very hard to differentiate the real from unreal.

Keywords: agency, Debord, Gone Girl, media studies, society of spectacle, reality

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4604 The New Family Law in Kuwait: A Step Towards International Standards

Authors: Dina Hadad

Abstract:

Women empowerment in the Arab world remains a central issue in the context of development and human rights. Akin to many societies around the globe, gender equality is yet to be achieved. This research will provide an introduction into the current legal stand of some Arab countries in terms of gender equality and women rights in the context of family law. It will look specifically into the recent family law in Kuwait and why many women consider it a positive step towards affirming their rights and their needs. Depending on comparative material from the area, the research argues that whilst some countries made efforts to promote women’s empowerment as a concept and practice throughout its policies, others have indeed some unique journeys that reflect organic and from within evolutions. Nonetheless, these efforts are yet to reflect a comprehensive structure that addresses women legal and political empowerment let alone social status. A contradiction in the realities of different Arab states is nothing new since the lack of comprehensive rights-based policy making in Arab countries has contributed to the disconnect between economic growth and development challenges.

Keywords: women empowerment, cultural challenges, gender equality, Islamic law, international standards, family law

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4603 Corporate Codes of Ethics and Earnings Discretion: International Evidence

Authors: Chu Chen, Giorgio Gotti, Tony Kang, Michael Wolfe

Abstract:

This study examines the role of codes of ethics in reducing the extent to which managers’ act opportunistically in reporting earnings. Corporate codes of ethics, by clarifying the boundaries of ethical corporate behaviors and making relevant social norms more salient, have the potential to deter managers from engaging in opportunistic financial reporting practices. In a sample of international companies, we find that the quality of corporate codes of ethics is associated with higher earnings quality, i.e., lower discretionary accruals. Our results are confirmed for a subsample of firms more likely to be engaging in opportunistic reporting behavior, i.e., firms that just meet or beat analysts’ forecasts. Further, codes of ethics play a greater role in reducing earnings management for firms in countries with weaker investor protection mechanisms. Our results suggest that corporate codes of ethics can be a viable alternative to country-level investor protection mechanisms in curbing aggressive reporting behaviors.

Keywords: corporate ethics policy, code of ethics, business ethics, earnings discretion, accruals

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4602 Comprehensive Approach to Enhance Green Buildings in Urban Areas

Authors: M. Pena, J. Shin, H. Park

Abstract:

The main objective of any engineering activity is the development of a system that fulfills the specific economic, social or environmental needs. Green growth policies, as a system, targets to satisfy two main needs: economic and environmental growth. Cities are complex systems composed of varied characteristics such as differences in socio-environmental conditions and local affordability, among others. Thus, commissioned policies are required to address these differences and to ensure green development. A more maintainable and justifiable, resource-efficient green growth can be obtained in urban areas if multi-criteria framework of policies relevant to green buildings is designed. Reason is that, this approach fits to target the differences and unique conditions of urban areas. By following the principles of axiomatic design, this paper urges to derive a framework for the application of green buildings policies in urban areas with distinctive socio-economic and environmental characteristics. Functional requirements defined as principles to ensure green growth and design parameters are identified in each set of conditions. Design matrices are constructed for each group of urban areas. Thus, the understanding of the needs and differences for each group of urban areas and the methodology to ensure green buildings is achieved.

Keywords: axiomatic design, green growth, sustainable development, urban planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 349