Search results for: adaptive thermal comfort model

Authors: Huseyin Guler, Cigdem Kosar

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The aim of this study is to propose Bridge estimator for seasonal unit root tests. Seasonality is an important factor for many economic time series. Some variables may contain seasonal patterns and forecasts that ignore important seasonal patterns have a high variance. Therefore, it is very important to eliminate seasonality for seasonal macroeconomic data. There are some methods to eliminate the impacts of seasonality in time series. One of them is filtering the data. However, this method leads to undesired consequences in unit root tests, especially if the data is generated by a stochastic seasonal process. Another method to eliminate seasonality is using seasonal dummy variables. Some seasonal patterns may result from stationary seasonal processes, which are modelled using seasonal dummies but if there is a varying and changing seasonal pattern over time, so the seasonal process is non-stationary, deterministic seasonal dummies are inadequate to capture the seasonal process. It is not suitable to use seasonal dummies for modeling such seasonally nonstationary series. Instead of that, it is necessary to take seasonal difference if there are seasonal unit roots in the series. Different alternative methods are proposed in the literature to test seasonal unit roots, such as Dickey, Hazsa, Fuller (DHF) and Hylleberg, Engle, Granger, Yoo (HEGY) tests. HEGY test can be also used to test the seasonal unit root in different frequencies (monthly, quarterly, and semiannual). Another issue in unit root tests is the lag selection. Lagged dependent variables are added to the model in seasonal unit root tests as in the unit root tests to overcome the autocorrelation problem. In this case, it is necessary to choose the lag length and determine any deterministic components (i.e., a constant and trend) first, and then use the proper model to test for seasonal unit roots. However, this two-step procedure might lead size distortions and lack of power in seasonal unit root tests. Recent studies show that Bridge estimators are good in selecting optimal lag length while differentiating nonstationary versus stationary models for nonseasonal data. The advantage of this estimator is the elimination of the two-step nature of conventional unit root tests and this leads a gain in size and power. In this paper, the Bridge estimator is proposed to test seasonal unit roots in a HEGY model. A Monte-Carlo experiment is done to determine the efficiency of this approach and compare the size and power of this method with HEGY test. Since Bridge estimator performs well in model selection, our approach may lead to some gain in terms of size and power over HEGY test.

Keywords: bridge estimators, HEGY test, model selection, seasonal unit root

Procedia PDF Downloads 333

Authors: Rossouw De Bruin, Sebastiaan H. Von Solms

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The state of national security is an evolving concern. Companies, organizations, governments, states and individuals are aware of the security of their information and their assets however, they may not always be aware of the risks present. These risks are not only limited to non-existence of security procedures. Existing security can be severely flawed, especially if there is non-conformance towards policies, practices and procedures. When looking at humanitarian actions, we can easily identify these flaws. Unfortunately, humanitarian aid has to compete with factors from within the states, countries and continents they are working in. Furthermore, as technology improves, so does our connectivity to the internet and the way in which we use the internet. However, there are times when security is overlooked and humanitarian agencies are some of the agencies that do not always take security into consideration. The purpose of this paper will be to introduce the importance of cybersecurity and cybersecurity governance with respect to humanitarian work. We will also introduce and briefly discuss a model that can be used by humanitarian agencies to assess, manage and maintain their cybersecurity efforts.

Keywords: humanities, cybersecurity, cybersecurity governance, maturity, cybersecurity maturity, maturity model

Procedia PDF Downloads 260

Authors: Berk Ecer, Ebru Akcapinar Sezer

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Traditional management models of intersections, such as no-light intersections or signalized intersection, are not the most effective way of passing the intersections if the vehicles are intelligent. To this end, Dresner and Stone proposed a new intersection control model called Autonomous Intersection Management (AIM). In the AIM simulation, they were examining the problem from a multi-agent perspective, demonstrating that intelligent intersection control can be made more efficient than existing control mechanisms. In this study, autonomous intersection management has been investigated. We extended their works and added a potential-based lane organization layer. In order to distribute vehicles evenly to each lane, this layer triggers vehicles to analyze near lanes, and they change their lane if other lanes have an advantage. We can observe this behavior in real life, such as drivers, change their lane by considering their intuitions. Basic intuition on selecting the correct lane for traffic is selecting a less crowded lane in order to reduce delay. We model that behavior without any change in the AIM workflow. Experiment results show us that intersection performance is directly connected with the vehicle distribution in lanes of roads of intersections. We see the advantage of handling lane management with a potential approach in performance metrics such as average delay of intersection and average travel time. Therefore, lane management and intersection management are problems that need to be handled together. This study shows us that the lane through which vehicles enter the intersection is an effective parameter for intersection management. Our study draws attention to this parameter and suggested a solution for it. We observed that the regulation of AIM inputs, which are vehicles in lanes, was as effective as contributing to aim intersection management. PLO-AIM model outperforms AIM in evaluation metrics such as average delay of intersection and average travel time for reasonable traffic rates, which is in between 600 vehicle/hour per lane to 1300 vehicle/hour per lane. The proposed model reduced the average travel time reduced in between %0.2 - %17.3 and reduced the average delay of intersection in between %1.6 - %17.1 for 4-lane and 6-lane scenarios.

Keywords: AIM project, autonomous intersection management, lane organization, potential-based approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Jac J. W. Andrews, James B. Hale

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Effective practicing psychologists require ongoing skill development that is constructivist and recursive in nature, with mentor, colleague, co-worker, and patient feedback critical to successful acquisition and maintenance of professional competencies. This paper will provide an overview of the nature and scope of psychologist skill development through multisource feedback (MSF) or 360 degree evaluation, present a rationale for its use for assessing practicing psychologist performance, and advocate its use in psychology given the demonstrated model utility in other health professions. The paper will conclude that an international research design is needed to assess the feasibility, reliability, and validity of MSF system ratings intended to solicit feedback from mentors, colleagues, coworkers, and patients about psychologist competencies. If adopted, the MSF model could lead to enhanced skill development that fosters patient satisfaction within and across countries.

Keywords: psychologist, multisource feedback, psychologist competency, professionalism

Procedia PDF Downloads 439

Authors: Arlan S. Freitas, Leila M. Carvalho, Adriana L. Soares, Arnoud Neto, Marta S. Madruga, Rafael H. Carvalho, Elza I. Ida, Massami Shimokomaki

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The objective of this work was to evaluate the influence of microclimatic profile of broiler transport trucks and holding time (340) min under commercial conditions over the breast meat quality and DOA (Dead On Arrival) in a tropical Brazilian regions as the NorthEast. In this particular region routinely the season is divided into dry and wet seasons. Three loads of 4,100 forty seven days old broiler were monitored from farm to slaughterhouse in a distance of 273 km (320 min), morning periods of August, September and October 2015 rainy days. Meat qualities were evaluated by determining the occurrence of PSE (pale, soft, exudative) meat and DFD (dark, firm, dry) meat. The percentage of DOA per loaded truck was determined by counting the dead broiler during the hanging step at the slaughtering plant. Results showed the occurrence of 26.30% of PSE and 2.49% of DFD and 0.45% of DOA. By having PSE- and DFD- meat means that the birds were under thermal and cold stress leading as consequence to a relative high DOA index.

Keywords: animal welfare, DFD, microclimatic profile, PSE

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Authors: Somayyeh Kalami, Mojgan Nejad

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Based on the source (softwood, hardwood or annual crop) and isolation method (kraft, organosolv, sulfite or pre-enzymatic treatment), there are significant variations in lignin structure and properties. The first step in using lignin as biobased feedstock is to make sure that specific lignin is suitable for intended application. Complete characterization of lignin and measuring its chemical, physical and thermal properties can help to predict its suitability. To replace 100% phenol portion of phenolic adhesive, lignin should have high reactivity toward formaldehyde. Theoretically, lignins with closer backbone structure to phenol should be better candidate for this application. In this study, a number of different lignins were characterized and used to formulate phenolic adhesive. One of the main findings was that lignin sample with higher percentage of hydroxyl-phenyl units was better candidate than lignin with more syringyl units. This could be explained by the fact that hydroxyl-phenyl lignin units have two available ortho positions for reaction with formaldehyde while in syringyl units all ortho and para positions are occupied, and there is no available site in lignin structure to react with formaldehyde.

Keywords: lignin, phenolic adhesive, biobased, sustainable

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Sina Keyhanian, Abbas Ahmadi, Behrooz Karimi

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We present a multi-objective binary programming model which considers surgical cases are scheduling among operating rooms and the configuration of surgical instruments in limited capacity hospital trays, simultaneously. Many mathematical models have been developed previously in the literature addressing different challenges in health-care logistics such as assigning operating rooms, leveling beds, etc. But what happens inside the operating rooms along with the inventory management of required instruments for various operations, and also their integration with surgical scheduling have been poorly discussed. Our model considers the minimization of movements between trays during a surgery which recalls the famous cell formation problem in group technology. This assumption can also provide a major potential contribution to robotic surgeries. The tray configuration problem which consumes surgical instruments requirement plan (SIRP) and sequence of surgical procedures based on required instruments (SIRO) is nested inside the bin packing problem. This modeling approach helps us understand that most of the same-output solutions will not be necessarily identical when it comes to the rearrangement of surgeries among rooms. A numerical example has been dealt with via a proposed nested simulated annealing (SA) optimization approach which provides insights about how various configurations inside a solution can alter the optimal condition.

Keywords: health-care logistics, hospital tray configuration, off-line bin packing, simulated annealing optimization, surgical case scheduling

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Hyvee Gean Cabuso, Arvin Taruc, Danielle Villanueva, Channela Anais Hipolito, Jia Bianca Alfonso

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Introduction: Denture adhesive aids to provide additional retention, support and comfort for patients with loose dentures, as well as for patients who seek to achieve optimal denture adhesion. But due to its growing popularity, arising oral health issues should be considered, including its possible impact that may alter the microbiological condition of the denture. Changes as such may further resolve to denture-related oral diseases that can affect the day-to-day lives of patients. Purpose: The study aims to assess and compare the microbiological status of dentures without adhesives versus dentures when adhesives were applied. The study also intends to identify the presence of specific microorganisms, their colony concentration and their possible effects on the oral microflora. This study also aims to educate subjects by introducing an alternative denture cleaning method as well as denture and oral health care. Methodology: Edentulous subjects age 50-80 years old, both physically and medically fit, were selected to participate. Before obtaining samples for the study, the alternative cleaning method was introduced by demonstrating a step-by-step cleaning process. Samples were obtained by swabbing the intaglio surface of their upper and lower prosthesis. These swabs were placed in a thioglycollate broth, which served as a transport and enrichment medium. The swabs were then processed through bacterial culture. The colony-forming units (CFUs) were calculated on MacConkey Agar Plate (MAP) and Blood Agar Plate (BAP) in order to identify and assess the microbiological status, including species identification and microbial counting. Result: Upon evaluation and analysis of collected data, the microbiological assessment of the upper dentures with adhesives showed little to no difference compared to dentures without adhesives, but for the lower dentures, (P=0.005), which is less than α = 0.05; therefore, the researchers reject (Ho) and that there is a significant difference between the mean ranks of the lower denture without adhesive to those with, implying that there is a significant decrease in the bacterial count. Conclusion: These results findings may implicate the possibility that the addition of denture adhesives may contribute to the significant decrease of microbial colonization on the dentures.

Keywords: denture, denture adhesive, denture-related, microbiological assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: B. Vadiraj, S. N. Omkar, B. Kapil Bharadwaj, Yash Vardhan Gupta

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During manned exploration of space, missions will require astronaut crewmembers to perform Extra Vehicular Activities (EVAs) for a variety of tasks. These EVAs take place after long periods of operations in space, and in and around unique vehicles, space structures and systems. Considering the remoteness and time spans in which these vehicles will operate, EVA system operations should utilize common worksites, tools and procedures as much as possible to increase the efficiency of training and proficiency in operations. All of the preparations need to be carried out based on studies of astronaut motions. Until now, development and training activities associated with the planned EVAs in Russian and U.S. space programs have relied almost exclusively on physical simulators. These experimental tests are expensive and time consuming. During the past few years a strong increase has been observed in the use of computer simulations due to the fast developments in computer hardware and simulation software. Based on this idea, an effort to develop a computational simulation system to model human dynamic motion for EVA is initiated. This study focuses on the simulation of an astronaut moving the orbital replaceable units into the worksites or removing them from the worksites. Our physics-based methodology helps fill the gap in quantitative analysis of astronaut EVA by providing a multisegment human arm model. Simulation work described in the study improves on the realism of previous efforts, incorporating joint stops to account for the physiological limits of range of motion. To demonstrate the utility of this approach human arm model is simulated virtually using ADAMS/LifeMOD® software. Kinematic mechanism for the astronaut’s task is studied from joint angles and torques. Simulation results obtained is validated with numerical simulation based on the principles of Newton-Euler method. Torques determined using mathematical model are compared among the subjects to know the grace and consistency of the task performed. We conclude that due to uncertain nature of exploration-class EVA, a virtual model developed using multibody dynamics approach offers significant advantages over traditional human modeling approaches.

Keywords: extra vehicular activity, biomechanics, inverse kinematics, human body modeling

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Authors: Suneeta Kumari, Abanti Sahoo

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Industrial effluents treatment is a major problem in the world. All wastewater treatment methods have some problems in the environment. Due to this reason, today many natural biopolymers are being used in the waste water treatment because those are safe for our environment. In this study, synthesis and characterization of polyethersulfone/chitosan membranes (Thin film composite membrane) are carried out. Fish scales are used as raw materials. Different characterization techniques such as Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), X-ray powder diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscope (SEM) and Thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA) are analysed for the synthesized membrane. The performance of membranes such as flux, rejection, and pore size are also checked. The synthesized membrane is used for the treatment of steel industry waste water where Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), pH, colour, Total dissolved solids (TDS), Total suspended solids (TSS), Electrical conductivity (EC) and Turbidity aspects are analysed.

Keywords: fish scale, membrane synthesis, treatment of industrial effluents, chitosan

Procedia PDF Downloads 317

Authors: Yuan Tian, Benhe Gao

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This paper aims to investigate a two stage supply chain of one leading supplier and one following retailer that experiences two factors perturbation out of supplier's production cost, retailer's marginal cost and retail price in stochastic demand environment. Granted that risk neutral condition has long been discussed, little attention has been given to disruptions under the premise of risk neutral supplier and risk aversion retailer. We establish the optimal order quantity and revealed the profit distribution coefficient in risk-neutral static model, make adjustment under disruption scenario, and then select utility function method for risk aversion model. Using buy-back contract policy, the improvement of parameters can achieve channel coordination where Pareto optimal is realized.

Keywords: supply chain coordination, disruption management, buy-back contract, lose aversion

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Authors: Sriram Kashyap Prasad, Ionut Florescu

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This study models the intraday asset prices as driven by Markov process. This work identifies the latent states of the Hidden Markov model, using limit order book data (trades and quotes) to continuously estimate the states throughout the day. This work builds a trading strategy using estimated states to generate signals. The strategy utilizes current state to recalibrate buy/ sell levels and the transition between states to trigger stop-loss when adverse price movements occur. The proposed trading strategy is tested on the Stevens High Frequency Trading (SHIFT) platform. SHIFT is a highly realistic market simulator with functionalities for creating an artificial market simulation by deploying agents, trading strategies, distributing initial wealth, etc. In the implementation several assets on the NASDAQ exchange are used for testing. In comparison to a strategy with static buy/ sell levels, this study shows that the number of limit orders that get matched and executed can be increased. Executing limit orders earns rebates on NASDAQ. The system can capture jumps in the limit order book prices, provide dynamic buy/sell levels and trigger stop loss signals to improve the PnL (Profit and Loss) performance of the strategy.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, Hidden Markov model, high frequency trading, limit order book learning

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Authors: Tarek Aboueldahab, Hanan Farag

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Cost minimization of Multiple Vehicle Routing Problem becomes a critical issue in the field of transportation because it is NP-hard optimization problem and the search space is complex. Many researches use the hybridization of artificial intelligence (AI) models to solve this problem; however, it can not guarantee to reach the best solution due to the difficulty of searching the whole search space. To overcome this problem, we introduce the hybrid model of Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (DPSO) with a passive congregation which enable searching the whole search space to compromise between both local and global search. The practical experiment shows that our model obviously outperforms other hybrid models in cost minimization.

Keywords: cost minimization, multi-vehicle routing problem, passive congregation, discrete swarm, passive congregation

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Authors: T. T. Naas, Y. Lasbet, C. Kezrane

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The thermal control in many systems is widely accomplished applying mixed convection process due to its low cost, reliability and easy maintenance. Typical applications include the aircraft electronic equipment, rotating-disc heat exchangers, turbo machinery, and nuclear reactors, etc. Natural convection in an inclined square enclosure heated via wall heater has been studied numerically. Finite volume method is used for solving momentum and energy equations in the form of stream function–vorticity. The right and left walls are kept at a constant temperature, while the other parts are adiabatic. The range of the inclination angle covers a whole revolution. The method is validated for a vertical cavity. A general power law dependence of the Nusselt number with respect to the Rayleigh number with the coefficient and exponent as functions of the inclination angle is presented. For a fixed Rayleigh number, the inclination angle increases or decreases is found.

Keywords: natural convection in enclosure, inclined enclosure, Nusselt number, entropy generation analyze

Procedia PDF Downloads 256

Authors: Joseph Salim

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This paper proposes the development of a supervised machine learning system to predict the consequences of untreated bruxism (teeth grinding) on gingival (gum) recession and jaw pain (most often bilateral jaw pain with possible headaches and limited ability to open the mouth). As a general dentist in a multi-specialty practice, the author has encountered many patients suffering from these issues due to uncontrolled bruxism (teeth grinding) at night. The most effective treatment for managing this problem involves wearing a nightguard during sleep and receiving therapeutic Botox injections to relax the muscles (the masseter muscle) responsible for grinding. However, some patients choose to postpone these treatments, leading to potentially irreversible and costlier consequences in the future. The proposed machine learning model aims to track patients who forgo the recommended treatments and assess the percentage of individuals who will experience worsening jaw pain, gingival (gum) recession, or both within a 3-to-5-year timeframe. By accurately predicting these outcomes, the model seeks to motivate patients to address the root cause proactively, ultimately saving time and pain while improving quality of life and avoiding much costlier treatments such as full-mouth rehabilitation to help recover the loss of vertical dimension of occlusion due to shortened clinical crowns because of bruxism, gingival grafts, etc.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, machine learning, predictive insights, bruxism, teeth grinding, therapeutic botox, nightguard, gingival recession, gum recession, jaw pain

Procedia PDF Downloads 86

Authors: Shakhawath Hossain, Tazkia Tahsin

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Introduction/Background: Intellectual disability is a disability characterized by significant limitations both in intellectual functioning and in adaptive behavior, which covers many everyday social and practical skills. Vocational education is a multi-professional approach that is provided to individuals of working age with health-related impairments, limitations, or restrictions with work functioning and whose primary aim is to optimize work participation. Instrumental Activities of Daily Living activities to support daily life within the home and community. Like as community mobility, financial management, meal preparation, and clean-up, shopping. Material and Method: Electronic searches of Medline, PubMed, Google scholar, OT Seeker literature using the key terms of intellectual disability, vocational rehabilitation, instrumental activities of daily living and Occupational Therapy, as well as a thorough manual search for relevant literature. Results: There were 13 articles, all qualitative and quantitative, which are included in this review. All studies were mixed methods in design. To take the Occupational Therapy services, there is a significant improvement in their children's various areas like as sensory issues, cognitive abilities, perceptual skills, visual, motor planning, and group therapy. After taking the vocational and instrumental activities of daily living training children with intellectual disabilities to participate in their daily activities and work as an employee different company or organizations. Conclusion: The persons with intellectual disability are an integral part of our society who deserves social support and opportunities like other human beings. From the result section of the project papers, it is found that the significant benefits of Occupational Therapy services in the aspects of vocational and instrumental activities of daily living.

Keywords: occupational therapy, daily living activities, intellectual disabilities, instrumental ADL

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Authors: David Gamboa, Bernardo Herrera, Karen Cacua

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Nanomaterials have been explored as alternatives to reduce particulate matter from diesel engines, which is one of the most common pollutants of the air in urban centers. However, the use of nanomaterials as additives for diesel has to overcome the instability of the dispersions to be considered viable for commercial use. In this work, functionalization of carbon nanotubes with amide groups was performed to improve the stability of these nanomaterials in a mix of 90% petroleum diesel and 10% palm oil biodiesel (B10) in concentrations of 50 and 100 ppm. The resulting nano fuel was used as the fuel for a stationary internal combustion engine, where the particulate matter, NOx, and CO were measured. The results showed that the use of amide groups significantly enhances the time for the carbon nanotubes to remain suspended in the fuel, and at the same time, these nanomaterials helped to reduce the particulate matter and NOx emissions. However, the CO emissions with nano fuel were higher than those ones with the combustion of B10. These results suggest that carbon nanotubes have thermal and catalytic effects on the combustion of B10.

Keywords: carbon nanotubes, diesel, internal combustion engine, particulate matter

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Authors: Xinyu Wei, Mingming Peng, Kenji Kamiya, Eika Qian

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Iso-stearic acid as a saturated fatty acid with a branched chain shows a low pour point, high oxidative stability and great biodegradability. The industrial production of iso-stearic acid involves first isomerizing unsaturated fatty acids into branched-chain unsaturated fatty acids (BUFAs), followed by hydrogenating the branched-chain unsaturated fatty acids to obtain iso-stearic acid. However, the production yield of iso-stearic acid is reportedly less than 30%. In recent decades, extensive research has been conducted on branched fatty acids. Most research has replaced acidic clays with zeolites due to their high selectivity, good thermal stability, and renewability. It was reported that isomerization of unsaturated fatty acid occurred mainly inside the zeolite channel. In contrast, the production of by-products like dimer acid mainly occurs at acid sites outside the surface of zeolite. Further, the deactivation of catalysts is attributed to the pore blockage of zeolite. In the present study, micro/mesoporous ZSM-22 zeolites were developed. It is clear that the synthesis of a micro/mesoporous ZSM-22 zeolite is regarded as the ideal strategy owing to its ability to minimize coke formation. Different mesoporosities micro/mesoporous H-ZSM-22 zeolites were prepared through recrystallization of ZSM-22 using sodium hydroxide solution (0.2-1M) with cetyltrimethylammonium bromide template (CTAB). The structure, morphology, porosity, acidity, and isomerization performance of the prepared catalysts were characterized and evaluated. The dissolution and recrystallization process of the H-ZSM-22 microporous zeolite led to the formation of approximately 4 nm-sized mesoporous channels on the outer surface of the microporous zeolite, resulting in a micro/mesoporous material. This process increased the weak Brønsted acid sites at the pore mouth while reducing the total number of acid sites in ZSM-22. Finally, an activity test was conducted using oleic acid as a model compound in a fixed-bed reactor. The activity test results revealed that micro/mesoporous H-ZSM-22 zeolites exhibited a high isomerization activity, reaching >70% selectivity and >50% yield of BUFAs. Furthermore, the yield of oligomers was limited to less than 20%. This demonstrates that the presence of mesopores in ZSM-22 enhances contact between the feedstock and the active sites within the catalyst, thereby increasing catalyst activity. Additionally, a portion of the dissolved and recrystallized silica adhered to the catalyst's surface, covering the surface-active sites, which reduced the formation of oligomers. This study offers distinct insights into the production of iso-stearic acid using a fixed-bed reactor, paving the way for future research in this area.

Keywords: Iso-stearic acid, oleic acid, skeletal isomerization, micro/mesoporous, ZSM-22

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Authors: Sujing Wang, Song Wang, Jian Zhang, Qiang Xu

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Flaring emissions during abnormal operating conditions such as plant start-ups, shut-downs, and upsets in chemical process industries (CPI) are usually significant. Flare minimization can help to save raw material and energy for CPI plants, and to improve local environmental sustainability. In this paper, a systematic methodology based on plant-wide dynamic simulation is presented for CPI plant flare minimizations under abnormal operating conditions. Since off-specification emission sources are inevitable during abnormal operating conditions, to significantly reduce flaring emission in a CPI plant, they must be either recycled to the upstream process for online reuse, or stored somewhere temporarily for future reprocessing, when the CPI plant manufacturing returns to stable operation. Thus, the off-spec products could be reused instead of being flared. This can be achieved through the identification of viable design and operational strategies during normal and abnormal operations through plant-wide dynamic scheduling, simulation, and optimization. The proposed study includes three stages of simulation works: (i) developing and validating a steady-state model of a CPI plant; (ii) transiting the obtained steady-state plant model to the dynamic modeling environment; and refining and validating the plant dynamic model; and (iii) developing flare minimization strategies for abnormal operating conditions of a CPI plant via a validated plant-wide dynamic model. This cost-effective methodology has two main merits: (i) employing large-scale dynamic modeling and simulations for industrial flare minimization, which involves various unit models for modeling hundreds of CPI plant facilities; (ii) dealing with critical abnormal operating conditions of CPI plants such as plant start-up and shut-down. Two virtual case studies on flare minimizations for start-up operation (over 50% of emission savings) and shut-down operation (over 70% of emission savings) of an ethylene plant have been employed to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed study.

Keywords: flare minimization, large-scale modeling and simulation, plant shut-down, plant start-up

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Authors: Zuliziana Suif, Nordila Ahmad, Sengheng Hul

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This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on suspended sediment changes in the Mekong River Basin. In this study, the distributed process-based sediment transport model is used to examine the potential impact of future climate on suspended sediment dynamic changes in the Mekong River Basin. To this end, climate scenarios from two General Circulation Model (GCMs) were considered in the scenario analysis. The simulation results show that the sediment load and concentration shows 0.64% to 69% increase in the near future (2041-2050) and 2.5% to 95% in the far future (2090- 2099). As the projected climate change impact on sediment varies remarkably between the different climate models, the uncertainty should be taken into account in sediment management. Overall, the changes in sediment load and concentration can have a great implication for related sediment management.

Keywords: climate change, suspended sediment, Mekong River Basin, GCMs

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Authors: Krzysztof Pomorski

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In the given work we present universal mathematical framework for modeling of cattle farm system that can set and validate various hypothesis that can be tested against experimental data. The presented work is preliminary but it is expected to be valid tool for future deeper analysis that can result in new class of prediction methods allowing early detection of cow dieseaes as well as cow performance. Therefore the presented work shall have its meaning in agriculture models and in machine learning as well. It also opens the possibilities for incorporation of certain class of biological models necessary in modeling of cow behavior and farm performance that might include the impact of environment on the farm system. Particular attention is paid to the model of coupled oscillators that it the basic building hypothesis that can construct the model showing certain periodic or quasiperiodic behavior.

Keywords: coupled ordinary differential equations, cattle farm system, numerical methods, stochastic differential equations

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Puttharapong Sakulwaropas, Uraiwan Jaroengeratikun

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Casualty insurance business, the optimal premium pricing and adequate cost for an insurance company are important in risk management. Normally, the insurance pure premium can be determined by multiplying the claim frequency with the claim cost. The aim of this research was to study in the application of generalized linear models to select the risk factor for model of claim frequency and claim cost for estimating a pure premium. In this study, the data set was the claim of comprehensive motor insurance, which was provided by one of the insurance company in Thailand. The results of this study found that the risk factors significantly related to pure premium at the 0.05 level consisted of no claim bonus (NCB) and used of the car (Car code).

Keywords: generalized linear models, risk factor, pure premium, regression model

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Authors: Bator Shagdyrov, Elena Zorina, Tamara Nesterenko

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The aim of the research was to develop a design of micromechanical gyroscope, which will be used in the automotive industry, safety systems and anti-lock braking system. The research resulted in improvement of one of the technical parameters – bandwidth. In the process of mass production of micromechanical sensors, problems occurred with their use. One of the problems was a narrow bandwidth typical for the gyroscopes with a high-quality factor. A constructive way of increasing bandwidth is to use multimass systems via secondary oscillations axis. When constructing, the main task was to choose the frequency - phases and antiphases as close to each other as possible, and set the frequency of the primary oscillation evenly between them. Investigations are carried out using the T-Flex CAD finite element program and T-Flex ANALYSIS support package. The results obtained are planned to use in the future for the production of an experimental model of development and testing in practice of characteristics derived by theoretical means.

Keywords: bandwidth, inertial mass, mathematical model, micromechanical gyroscope, micromechanics

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Authors: Mohammad H. Yarmohammadian, Fatemeh Rezaei

Abstract:

Introduction: Improving patient safety in health systems is one of the main priorities in healthcare systems, so clinical risk management in organizations has become increasingly significant. Although several tools have been developed for clinical risk management, each has its own limitations. Aims: This study aims to develop a comprehensive tool that can complete the limitations of each risk assessment and management tools with the advantage of other tools. Methods: Procedure was determined in two main stages included development of an initial model during meetings with the professors and literature review, then implementation and verification of final model. Subjects and Methods: This study is a quantitative − qualitative research. In terms of qualitative dimension, method of focus groups with inductive approach is used. To evaluate the results of the qualitative study, quantitative assessment of the two parts of the fourth phase and seven phases of the research was conducted. Purposive and stratification sampling of various responsible teams for the selected process was conducted in the operating room. Final model verified in eight phases through application of activity breakdown structure, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), healthcare risk priority number (RPN), root cause analysis (RCA), FT, and Eindhoven Classification model (ECM) tools. This model has been conducted typically on patients admitted in a day-clinic ward of a public hospital for surgery in October 2012 to June. Statistical Analysis Used: Qualitative data analysis was done through content analysis and quantitative analysis done through checklist and edited RPN tables. Results: After verification the final model in eight-step, patient's admission process for surgery was developed by focus discussion group (FDG) members in five main phases. Then with adopted methodology of FMEA, 85 failure modes along with its causes, effects, and preventive capabilities was set in the tables. Developed tables to calculate RPN index contain three criteria for severity, two criteria for probability, and two criteria for preventability. Tree failure modes were above determined significant risk limitation (RPN > 250). After a 3-month period, patient's misidentification incidents were the most frequent reported events. Each RPN criterion of misidentification events compared and found that various RPN number for tree misidentification reported events could be determine against predicted score in previous phase. Identified root causes through fault tree categorized with ECM. Wrong side surgery event was selected by focus discussion group to purpose improvement action. The most important causes were lack of planning for number and priority of surgical procedures. After prioritization of the suggested interventions, computerized registration system in health information system (HIS) was adopted to prepare the action plan in the final phase. Conclusion: Complexity of health care industry requires risk managers to have a multifaceted vision. Therefore, applying only one of retrospective or prospective tools for risk management does not work and each organization must provide conditions for potential application of these methods in its organization. The results of this study showed that the integrated clinical risk management model can be used in hospitals as an efficient tool in order to improve clinical governance.

Keywords: failure modes and effective analysis, risk management, root cause analysis, model

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Authors: Darren Edwards, Thomas Pinna

Abstract:

Background: Interoception and heart rate variability have been found to predict outcomes of mental health and well-being. However, these have usually been investigated independently of one another. Objectives: This review aimed to explore the associations between interoception and heart rate variability (HRV) with emotion regulation (ER) and ER strategies within the existing literature and utilizing systematic review methodology. Methods: The process of article retrieval and selection followed the preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Databases PsychINFO, Web of Science, PubMed, CINAHL, and MEDLINE were scanned for papers published. Preliminary inclusion and exclusion criteria were specified following the patient, intervention, comparison, and outcome (PICO) framework, whilst the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modeling studies (CHARMS) framework was used to help formulate the research question, and to critically assess for bias in the identified full-length articles. Results: 237 studies were identified after initial database searches. Of these, eight studies were included in the final selection. Six studies explored the associations between HRV and ER, whilst three investigated the associations between interoception and ER (one of which was included in the HRV selection too). Overall, the results seem to show that greater HRV and interoception are associated with better ER. Specifically, high parasympathetic activity largely predicted the use of adaptive ER strategies such as reappraisal, and better acceptance of emotions. High interoception, instead, was predictive of effective down-regulation of negative emotions and handling of social uncertainty, there was no association with any specific ER strategy. Conclusions: Awareness of one’s own bodily feelings and vagal activation seem to be of central importance for the effective regulation of emotional responses.

Keywords: emotional regulation, vagal tone, interoception, chronic conditions, health and well-being, psychological flexibility

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Authors: Dong Wook Lee

Abstract:

This paper presents a method to analyze the stiffness of the expansion joint with structural support using a hybrid method combining computational and analytical methods. Many expansion joints found in tubes and ducts of mechanical structures are designed to absorb thermal expansion mismatch between their structural members and deal with misalignments introduced from the assembly/manufacturing processes. One of the important design perspectives is the system’s vibrational characteristics. We calculate the stiffness as a characterization parameter for structural joint systems using a combined Finite Element Analysis (FEA) and an analytical method. We apply the methods to two sample applications: external configurations of aircraft engines and nuclear power plant structures.

Keywords: expansion joint, expansion joint stiffness, finite element analysis, nuclear power plants, aircraft engine external configurations

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Authors: A. Melouah, M. Diaf

Abstract:

The III-N nitride semiconductors appear to be excellent host materials, in particular, GaN epilayers doped with Erbium ions have shown a highly reduced thermal quenching of the Er luminescence intensity from cryogenic to elevated temperatures. The remarkable stability may be due to the large energy band gap of the material. Two methods are used for doping the Gallium nitride films with Erbium ions; ion implantation in the wafers obtained by (CVDOM) and in-situ incorporation during epitaxial growth of the layers by (MBE). Photoluminescence (PL) spectroscopy has been the main optical technique used to characterize the emission of Er-doped III-N semiconductor materials. This technique involves optical excitation of Er3+ ions and measurement of the spectrum of the light emission as a function of energy (wavelength). Excitation at above band gap energy leads to the creation of Electron-Hole pairs. Some of this pairs may transfer their energy to the Er3+ ions, exciting the 4f-electrons and resulting in optical emission. This corresponds to an indirect excitation of the Er3+ ions by electron-hole pairs. The direct excitation by the optical pumping of the radiation can be obtained.

Keywords: photoluminescence, Erbium, GaN, semiconductor materials

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Authors: Apollinaire Barme, Simon Tamayo, Arthur Gaudron

Abstract:

This paper presents a statistical approach to identify explanatory variables linearly related to e-commerce sales. The proposed methodology allows specifying a regression model in order to quantify the relevance between openly available data (economic and demographic) and national e-commerce sales. The proposed methodology consists in collecting data, preselecting input variables, performing regressions for choosing variables and models, testing and validating. The usefulness of the proposed approach is twofold: on the one hand, it allows identifying the variables that influence e- commerce sales with an accessible approach. And on the other hand, it can be used to model future sales from the input variables. Results show that e-commerce is linearly dependent on 11 economic and demographic indicators.

Keywords: e-commerce, statistical modeling, regression, empirical research

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Authors: Tarek A. Mekail, Walid M. A. Elmagid

Abstract:

Many researches have concentrated on improving the aerodynamic performance of wind turbine blade through testing and theoretical studies. A small wind turbine blade is designed, fabricated and tested. The power performance of small horizontal axis wind turbines is simulated in details using Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD). The three-dimensional CFD models are presented using ANSYS-CFX v13 software for predicting the performance of a small horizontal axis wind turbine. The simulation results are compared with the experimental data measured from a small wind turbine model, which designed according to a vehicle-based test system. The analysis of wake effect and aerodynamic of the blade can be carried out when the rotational effect was simulated. Finally, comparison between experimental, numerical and analytical performance has been done. The comparison is fairly good.

Keywords: small wind turbine, CFD of wind turbine, CFD, performance of wind turbine, test of small wind turbine, wind turbine aerodynamic, 3D model

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Authors: Ramona Georgeta Biholar

Abstract:

Gender-based violence against women plagues societies around the world. The work to eliminate it is an ongoing battle. At the international level, Article 5 (a) CEDAW establishes an agenda for social and cultural transformation: it imposes on States parties to CEDAW an obligation to modify sex roles and stereotypical social and cultural patterns of conduct. Also, it provides for the protection of women from violence stemming from such gender norms. Yet, the lived realities of women are frequently disconnected from this agenda. Nonetheless, it is the reality of the local that is crucial for the articulation, implementation and realization of women’s rights in general, and for the elimination of gender-based violence against women in particular. In this paper we discuss the transformation of sex roles and gender stereotyping with a view to realize women’s right to be free from gender-based violence. This paper is anchored in qualitative data collection undertaken in Jamaica and socio-legal research. Based on this research, 1) We explain the process of vernacularisation as a strategy that enables women’s human rights to hit the ground and benefit rights holders, and 2) We present a synergistic model for the implementation of Article 5 (a) CEDAW so that women’s right to be free from gender-based violence can be realized in a concrete national jurisdiction. This model is grounded in context-based demands and recommendations for social and cultural transformation as a remedy for the incidence of gender-based violence against women. Moreover, the synergistic model offers directions that have a general application for the implementation of CEDAW and Article 5 (a) CEDAW in particular, with a view to realize women’s right to be free from gender-based violence. The model is thus not only a conceptual tool of analysis, but also a prescriptive tool for action. It contributes to the work of both academics and practitioners, such as Governmental officials, and national and local civil society representatives. Overall, this paper contributes to understanding the process necessary to bridge that gap between women’s human rights norms and women’s life realities of discrimination and violence.

Keywords: CEDAW, gender-based violence against women, international human rights law, women’s rights implementation, the Caribbean

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