Search results for: supply demand model
19952 An Application of the Single Equation Regression Model
Authors: S. K. Ashiquer Rahman
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Recently, oil has become more influential in almost every economic sector as a key material. As can be seen from the news, when there are some changes in an oil price or OPEC announces a new strategy, its effect spreads to every part of the economy directly and indirectly. That’s a reason why people always observe the oil price and try to forecast the changes of it. The most important factor affecting the price is its supply which is determined by the number of wildcats drilled. Therefore, a study about the number of wellheads and other economic variables may give us some understanding of the mechanism indicated by the amount of oil supplies. In this paper, we will consider a relationship between the number of wellheads and three key factors: the price of the wellhead, domestic output, and GNP constant dollars. We also add trend variables in the models because the consumption of oil varies from time to time. Moreover, this paper will use an econometrics method to estimate parameters in the model, apply some tests to verify the result we acquire, and then conclude the model.Keywords: price, domestic output, GNP, trend variable, wildcat activity
Procedia PDF Downloads 6219951 Sustainable Supply Chain Management Practices, Challenges, and Opportunities: A Case Study of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises Within the Oil and Gas Sector
Authors: Igho Ekiugbo, Christos Papanagnou
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The energy sector continues to face increased scrutiny due to climate change challenges emanating from the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and gas. These climate change challenges have motivated industry practitioners and researchers alike to gain an interest in the way businesses operate. This paper aimed to investigate and assess how small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are reducing the impact of their operations, especially those within their supply chains, by assessing the sustainability practices they have adopted and implemented as well as the benefits and challenges of adopting such practices. Data will be collected from SMEs operating across the downstream oil and gas sector in Nigeria using questionnaire surveys. To analyse the data, confirmatory factor analysis and regression analysis will be performed. This method is deemed more suitable and appropriate for testing predefined measurements of sustainable supply chain practices as contained in the extant literature. Preliminary observations indicate a consensus on the awareness of the sustainability concept amongst the target participants. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is among the first to investigate the sustainability practices of SMEs operating in the Nigerian oil and gas sector and will therefore contribute to the sustainability and circular economic literature.Keywords: small and medium-sized enterprises, sustainability practices, supply chains, sustainable supply chain management, corporate sustainability, oil and gas, business performance
Procedia PDF Downloads 12719950 Wealth Creation and its Externalities: Evaluating Economic Growth and Corporate Social Responsibility
Authors: Zhikang Rong
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The 4th industrial revolution has introduced technologies like interconnectivity, machine learning, and real-time big data analytics that improve operations and business efficiency. This paper examines how these advancements have led to a concentration of wealth, specifically among the top 1%, and investigates whether this wealth provides value to society. Through analyzing impacts on employment, productivity, supply-demand dynamics, and potential externalities, it is shown that successful businesspeople, by enhancing productivity and creating jobs, contribute positively to long-term economic growth. Additionally, externalities such as environmental degradation are managed by social entrepreneurship and government policies.Keywords: wealth creation, employment, productivity, social entrepreneurship
Procedia PDF Downloads 2819949 An Ontology for Investment in Chinese Steel Company
Authors: Liming Chen, Baoxin Xu, Zhaoyun Ding, Bin Liu, Xianqiang Zhu
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In the era of big data, public investors are faced with more complicated information related to investment decisions than ever before. To survive in the fierce competition, it has become increasingly urgent for investors to combine multi-source knowledge and evaluate the companies’ true value efficiently. For this, a rule-based ontology reasoning method is proposed to support steel companies’ value assessment. Considering the delay in financial disclosure and based on cost-benefit analysis, this paper introduces the supply chain enterprises financial analysis and constructs the ontology model used to value the value of steel company. In addition, domain knowledge is formally expressed with the help of Web Ontology Language (OWL) language and SWRL (Semantic Web Rule Language) rules. Finally, a case study on a steel company in China proved the effectiveness of the method we proposed.Keywords: financial ontology, steel company, supply chain, ontology reasoning
Procedia PDF Downloads 13319948 The Value of Audit in Managing Supplier’s Process Improvement
Authors: Mohammad E. Nikoofal, Mehmet Gumus
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Besides the many benefits of outsourcing, firms are still concerned about the lack of critical information regarding both the risk levels and actions of their suppliers that are just a few links away. In this paper, we study the effectiveness of audit for the manufacturer in managing her supplier’s process improvement effort when the supplier is privately informed about his disruption risk and actions. By comparing the agency costs associated with the optimal menu of contracts with and without audit, we completely characterize the value of audit for all the cases from the perspectives of both manufacturer, and supplier as well as total supply chain. First, the analysis of value of audit from the manufacturer’s perspective shows that she can strictly benefit from auditing her supplier’s actions. To the best of our knowledge, this result has not been documented before in the principal-agent literature under a standard setting where the agent is assumed to be risk-neutral and not protected by limited liability constraints. Second, we find that not only the manufacturer but also the supplier can strictly benefit from audit. Third, the audit enables the manufacturer to customize her contract offerings based on the reliability of the supplier. Finally, by analyzing the impact of problem parameters on the value of audit, we identify the conditions under which an audit would be beneficial for individual supply chain parties as well as total supply chain.Keywords: supply disruption, adverse selection, moral hazard incentives, audit
Procedia PDF Downloads 46119947 Fish Markets in Sierra Leone: Size, Structure, Distribution Networks and Opportunities for Aquaculture Development
Authors: Milton Jusu, Moses Koroma
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Efforts by the Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources and its development partners to introduce “modern” aquaculture in Sierra Leone since the 1970s have not been successful. A number of reasons have been hypothesized, including the suggestion that the market infrastructure and demand for farmed fish were inadequate to stimulate large-scale and widespread aquaculture production in the country. We have assessed the size, structure, networks and opportunities in fish markets using a combination of Participatory Rural Appraisals (PRAs) and questionnaire surveys conducted in a sample of 29 markets (urban, weekly, wholesale and retail) and two hundred traders. The study showed that the local fish markets were dynamic, with very high variations in demand and supply. The markets sampled supplied between 135.2 and 9947.6 tonnes/year. Mean prices for fresh fish varied between US$1.12 and US$3.89/kg depending on species, with smoked catfish and shrimps commanding prices as high as US$7.4/kg. It is unlikely that marine capture fisheries can increase their current production levels, and these may, in fact, already be over-exploited and declining. Marine fish supplies are particularly low between July and September. More careful attention to the timing of harvests (rainy season, not dry season) and to species (catfish, not tilapia) (could help in the successful adoption of aquaculture.Keywords: fisheries and aquaculture, fish market, marine fish supplies, harvests
Procedia PDF Downloads 7119946 Analyzing Transit Network Design versus Urban Dispersion
Authors: Hugo Badia
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This research answers which is the most suitable transit network structure to serve specific demand requirements in an increasing urban dispersion process. Two main approaches of network design are found in the literature. On the one hand, a traditional answer, widespread in our cities, that develops a high number of lines to connect most of origin-destination pairs by direct trips; an approach based on the idea that users averse to transfers. On the other hand, some authors advocate an alternative design characterized by simple networks where transfer is essential to complete most of trips. To answer which of them is the best option, we use a two-step methodology. First, by means of an analytical model, three basic network structures are compared: a radial scheme, starting point for the other two structures, a direct trip-based network, and a transfer-based one, which represent the two alternative transit network designs. The model optimizes the network configuration with regard to the total cost for each structure. For a scenario of dispersion, the best alternative is the structure with the minimum cost. This dispersion degree is defined in a simple way considering that only a central area attracts all trips. If this area is small, we have a high concentrated mobility pattern; if this area is too large, the city is highly decentralized. In this first step, we can determine the area of applicability for each structure in function to that urban dispersion degree. The analytical results show that a radial structure is suitable when the demand is so centralized, however, when this demand starts to scatter, new transit lines should be implemented to avoid transfers. If the urban dispersion advances, the introduction of more lines is no longer a good alternative, in this case, the best solution is a change of structure, from direct trips to a network based on transfers. The area of applicability of each network strategy is not constant, it depends on the characteristics of demand, city and transport technology. In the second step, we translate analytical results to a real case study by the relationship between the parameters of dispersion of the model and direct measures of dispersion in a real city. Two dimensions of the urban sprawl process are considered: concentration, defined by Gini coefficient, and centralization by area based centralization index. Once it is estimated the real dispersion degree, we are able to identify in which area of applicability the city is located. In summary, from a strategic point of view, we can obtain with this methodology which is the best network design approach for a city, comparing the theoretical results with the real dispersion degree.Keywords: analytical network design model, network structure, public transport, urban dispersion
Procedia PDF Downloads 23019945 Present an Active Solar Energy System to Supply Heating Demands of the Teaching Staff Dormitory of Islamic Azad University of Ramhormoz
Authors: M. Talebzadegan, S. Bina , I. Riazi
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The purpose of this paper is to present an active solar energy system to supply heating demands of the teaching staff dormitory of Islamic Azad University of Ramhormoz. The design takes into account the solar radiations and climate data of Ramhormoz town and is based on the daily warm water consumption for health demands of 450 residents of the dormitory, which is equal to 27000 lit of 50 C° water, and building heating requirements with an area of 3500 m² well-protected by heatproof materials. First, heating demands of the building were calculated, then a hybrid system made up of solar and fossil energies was developed and finally, the design was economically evaluated. Since there is only roof space for using 110 flat solar water heaters, the calculations were made to hybridize solar water heating system with heat pumping system in which solar energy contributes 67% of the heat generated. According to calculations, the Net Present Value “N.P.V.” of revenue stream exceeds “N.P.V.” of cash paid off in this project over three years, which makes economically quite promising. The return of investment and payback period of the project is 4 years. Also, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the project was 25%, which exceeds bank rate of interest in Iran and emphasizes the desirability of the project.Keywords: solar energy, heat demand, renewable, pollution
Procedia PDF Downloads 42019944 Optimising the Reservoir Operation Using Water Resources Yield and Planning Model at Inanda Dam, uMngeni Basin
Authors: O. Nkwonta, B. Dzwairo, F. Otieno, J. Adeyemo
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The effective management of water resources is of great importance to ensure the supply of water resources to support changing water requirements over a selected planning horizon and in a sustainable and cost-effective way. Essentially, the purpose of the water resources planning process is to balance the available water resources in a system with the water requirements and losses to which the system is subjected. In such situations, water resources yield and planning model can be used to solve those difficulties. It has an advantage over other models by managing model runs, developing a representative system network, modelling incremental sub-catchments, creating a variety of standard system features, special modelling features, and run result output options.Keywords: complex, water resources, planning, cost effective, management
Procedia PDF Downloads 45019943 Investigating the Organizational Capacity of Communities Affecting Water Supply Resilience
Authors: Behrooz Balaei, Suzanne Wilkinson, Regan Potangaroa, Larry Abel, Philip McFarlane
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Water supply system failure has serious direct and indirect effects on people wellbeing. Post-disaster water system serviceability depends on a variety of factors from technical characteristics to social, economic, and organizational attributes of communities. This paper tests the organizational factors affecting water supply resilience to outline how these factors contributed to previous disasters. To do so, a framework is briefly introduced in this study to provide a clear guide to identify the significant relevant organizational factors. Then the factors affecting water serviceability following a disaster are outlines. Next, these factors are measured in the case of Tropical Cyclone Pam, which hit Vanuatu in March 2015. Reviewing the existing literature has also been carried out to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the background A site visit and a series of interviews have also been undertaken following the cyclone to collect site-specific data and information. In the end, the organizational factors were ranked to enable decision makers to identify significance of each factor compared to the others.Keywords: water supply, resilience, organizational capacity, Vanuatu, Tropical Cyclone Pam
Procedia PDF Downloads 12919942 Competition, Stability, and Economic Growth: A Causality Approach
Authors: Mahvish Anwaar
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Research Question: In this paper, we explore the causal relationship between banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth. Research Findings: The unbalanced panel data starting from 2000 to 2018 is collected to analyze the causality among banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth. The main focus of the study is to check the direction of causality among selected variables. The results of the study support the demand following, supply leading, feedback, and neutrality hypothesis conditional to different measures of banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth. Theoretical Implication: Jayakumar, Pradhan, Dash, Maradana, and Gaurav (2018) proposed a theoretical model of the causal relationship between banking competition, banking stability, and economic growth by using different indicators. So, we empirically test the proposed indicators in our study. This study makes a contribution to the literature by showing the defined relationship between developing and developed countries. Policy Implications: The study covers various policy implications regarding investors to analyze how to properly manage their finances, and government agencies will take help from the present study to find the best and most suitable policies by examining how the economy can grow concerning its finances.Keywords: competition, stability, economic growth, vector auto-regression, granger causality
Procedia PDF Downloads 6319941 Seismic Assessment of Passive Control Steel Structure with Modified Parameter of Oil Damper
Authors: Ahmad Naqi
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Today, the passively controlled buildings are extensively becoming popular due to its excellent lateral load resistance circumstance. Typically, these buildings are enhanced with a damping device that has high market demand. Some manufacturer falsified the damping device parameter during the production to achieve the market demand. Therefore, this paper evaluates the seismic performance of buildings equipped with damping devices, which their parameter modified to simulate the falsified devices, intentionally. For this purpose, three benchmark buildings of 4-, 10-, and 20-story were selected from JSSI (Japan Society of Seismic Isolation) manual. The buildings are special moment resisting steel frame with oil damper in the longitudinal direction only. For each benchmark buildings, two types of structural elements are designed to resist the lateral load with and without damping devices (hereafter, known as Trimmed & Conventional Building). The target building was modeled using STERA-3D, a finite element based software coded for study purpose. Practicing the software one can develop either three-dimensional Model (3DM) or Lumped Mass model (LMM). Firstly, the seismic performance of 3DM and LMM models was evaluated and found excellent coincide for the target buildings. The simplified model of LMM used in this study to produce 66 cases for both of the buildings. Then, the device parameters were modified by ± 40% and ±20% to predict many possible conditions of falsification. It is verified that the building which is design to sustain the lateral load with support of damping device (Trimmed Building) are much more under threat as a result of device falsification than those building strengthen by damping device (Conventional Building).Keywords: passive control system, oil damper, seismic assessment, lumped mass model
Procedia PDF Downloads 11419940 Real Estate Rigidities: The Effect of Cash Transactions and the Impact of Demonetisation on Them
Authors: Dishant Shahi, Aradhya Shandilya, Nand Kumar
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We study here the impact of the black component referred to as X component in the text on Real estate transactions. The X component involved not only acts as friction in transaction but also leads to dysfunctionality in the capital market of real estate. The effect of the component is presented by using a model of economy which seeks resemblance with that of India involving property deals. The rigidities which hinder smooth transactions in property or land deals are depicted and their impact on the economy as a whole has been modelled. The effect of subprime crisis (2007) on Indian housing capital market and the role which the X component played during it, is also included in one of the sections. In the entire text, we have utilised 4 Quadrant graphs to study supply and demand causalities involved in commercial real estate. At the end we have included the impact of demonetisation as a move to counter the problem of overvaluation in the property assets arising due to the X component. The case of Demonetisation which has been the latest move by the Indian Government to control huge amount of black money in circulation has been included along with its impact on the housing and rent as well as the capital market.Keywords: X-component, 4Q graph, real estate, capital markets, demonetisation, consumer sentiments
Procedia PDF Downloads 36419939 Long-Term Resilience Performance Assessment of Dual and Singular Water Distribution Infrastructures Using a Complex Systems Approach
Authors: Kambiz Rasoulkhani, Jeanne Cole, Sybil Sharvelle, Ali Mostafavi
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Dual water distribution systems have been proposed as solutions to enhance the sustainability and resilience of urban water systems by improving performance and decreasing energy consumption. The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term resilience and robustness of dual water distribution systems versus singular water distribution systems under various stressors such as demand fluctuation, aging infrastructure, and funding constraints. To this end, the long-term dynamics of these infrastructure systems was captured using a simulation model that integrates institutional agency decision-making processes with physical infrastructure degradation to evaluate the long-term transformation of water infrastructure. A set of model parameters that varies for dual and singular distribution infrastructure based on the system attributes, such as pipes length and material, energy intensity, water demand, water price, average pressure and flow rate, as well as operational expenditures, were considered and input in the simulation model. Accordingly, the model was used to simulate various scenarios of demand changes, funding levels, water price growth, and renewal strategies. The long-term resilience and robustness of each distribution infrastructure were evaluated based on various performance measures including network average condition, break frequency, network leakage, and energy use. An ecologically-based resilience approach was used to examine regime shifts and tipping points in the long-term performance of the systems under different stressors. Also, Classification and Regression Tree analysis was adopted to assess the robustness of each system under various scenarios. Using data from the City of Fort Collins, the long-term resilience and robustness of the dual and singular water distribution systems were evaluated over a 100-year analysis horizon for various scenarios. The results of the analysis enabled: (i) comparison between dual and singular water distribution systems in terms of long-term performance, resilience, and robustness; (ii) identification of renewal strategies and decision factors that enhance the long-term resiliency and robustness of dual and singular water distribution systems under different stressors.Keywords: complex systems, dual water distribution systems, long-term resilience performance, multi-agent modeling, sustainable and resilient water systems
Procedia PDF Downloads 29219938 Work demand and Prevalence of Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorders: A Case Study of Pakistan Aviation Maintenance Workers
Authors: Muzamil Mahmood, Afshan Naseem, Muhammad Zeeshan Mirza, Yasir Ahmad, Masood Raza
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The purpose of this research is to analyze how aviation maintenance workers’ characteristics and work demand affect their development of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs). Guided by literature on task characteristics, work demand, and WMSDs, data is collected from 128 aviation maintenance workers of private and public airlines. Data is then analyzed through descriptive and inferential statistics. It is found that task characteristics have a significant positive effect on WMSDs and an increase in tasks performed by aviation maintenance workers leads to increase in WMSDs. Work demand did not have a significant effect on WMSDs. The task characteristics of aviation maintenance workers moderates the relationship between their work demand and WMSDs. This reveals that task characteristics of aviation maintenance workers enhance the effect of work demand on WMSDs. The task characteristics of aviation maintenance workers are challenging and unpredictable. Subsequently, WMSDs are prevalent among aviation maintenance workers. The work demand of aviation maintenance workers does not influence their development of WMSDs. Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority should minimize the intensity of tasks assigned to aviation maintenance workers by introducing work dynamisms such as task sharing, job rotation, and probably teleworking to enhance flexibility. Human Resource and Recruitment Department need to consider the ability and fitness levels of potential aviation maintenance workers during recruitment. In addition, regular physical activities and ergonomic policies should be put in place by the management of the Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority to reduce the incidences of WMSDs.Keywords: work related musculoskeletal disorders, ergonomics, occupational health and safety, human factors
Procedia PDF Downloads 16319937 BOFSC: A Blockchain Based Decentralized Framework to Ensure the Transparency of Organic Food Supply Chain
Authors: Mifta Ul Jannat, Raju Ahmed, Al Mamun, Jannatul Ferdaus, Ritu Costa, Milon Biswas
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Blockchain is an internet-based invention that is coveted in the permanent, scumbled record for its capacity to openly accept, record, and distribute transactions. In a traditional supply chain, there are no trustworthy participants for an organic product. Yet blockchain engineering may provide confidence, transparency, and traceability. Blockchain varies in how companies get real, checked, and lasting information from their supply chain and lock in customers. In an arrangement of cryptographic squares, Blockchain digitizes each connection by sparing it. No one person may alter the documents, and any alteration within the agreement is clear to all. The coming to the record is tamper proof and unchanging, offering a complete history of the object’s life cycle and minimizing opening for extorting. The primary aim of this analysis is to identify the underlying problem that the customer faces. In this post, we will minimize the allocation of fraud data through the ’Smart Contract’ and include a certificate of quality assurance.Keywords: blockchain technology, food supply chain, Ethereum, smart contract, quality assurance, trustability, security, transparency
Procedia PDF Downloads 15319936 An Optimization Modelling to Evaluate Flights Scheduling at Tourist Airports
Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou
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Airport’s serving a tourist destination are an essential counterpart of the tourist demand supply chain, and their productivity is related to the region’s attractiveness and is enhanced by the air transport business. In this paper, the evaluation framework of the scheduled flights between two tourist airports is taken into consideration. By adopting a systemic approach, the arrivals from an airport that its connectivity heavily depended on the departures of another major airport are reviewed. The methodology framework, based on inventory control theory and the numerical example, promotes the use of the modelling formulation. The results would be essential for comparison and exercising to other similar cases.Keywords: airport connectivity, inventory control, optimization, optimum allocation
Procedia PDF Downloads 33419935 The Cost of Non-Communicable Diseases in the European Union: A Projection towards the Future
Authors: Desiree Vandenberghe, Johan Albrecht
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Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are responsible for the vast majority of deaths in the European Union (EU) and represent a large share of total health care spending. A future increase in this health and financial burden is likely to be driven by population ageing, lifestyle changes and technological advances in medicine. Without adequate prevention measures, this burden can severely threaten population health and economic development. To tackle this challenge, a correct assessment of the current burden of NCDs is required, as well as a projection of potential increases of this burden. The contribution of this paper is to offer perspective on the evolution of the NCD burden towards the future and to give an indication of the potential of prevention policy. A Non-Homogenous, Semi-Markov model for the EU was constructed, which allowed for a projection of the cost burden for the four main NCDs (cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes mellitus) towards 2030 and 2050. This simulation is done based on multiple baseline scenarios that vary in demand and supply factors such as health status, population structure, and technological advances. Finally, in order to assess the potential of preventive measures to curb the cost explosion of NCDs, a simulation is executed which includes increased efforts for preventive health care measures. According to the Markov model, by 2030 and 2050, total costs (direct and indirect costs) in the EU could increase by 30.1% and 44.1% respectively, compared to 2015 levels. An ambitious prevention policy framework for NCDs will be required if the EU wants to meet this challenge of rising costs. To conclude, significant cost increases due to Non-Communicable Diseases are likely to occur due to demographic and lifestyle changes. Nevertheless, an ambitious prevention program throughout the EU can aid in making this cost burden manageable for future generations.Keywords: non-communicable diseases, preventive health care, health policy, Markov model, scenario analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 13919934 Extent of Fruit and Vegetable Waste at Wholesaler Stage of the Food Supply Chain in Western Australia
Authors: P. Ghosh, S. B. Sharma
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The growing problem of food waste is causing unacceptable economic, environmental and social impacts across the globe. In Australia, food waste is estimated at about AU$8 billion per year; however, information on the extent of wastage at different stages of the food value chain from farm to fork is very limited. This study aims to identify causes for and extent of food waste at wholesaler stage of the food value chain in the state of Western Australia. It also explores approaches applied to reduce and utilize food waste by the wholesalers. The study was carried out at Perth city market in Caning Vale, the main wholesale distribution centre for fruits and vegetables in Western Australia. A survey questionnaire was prepared and shared with 51 wholesalers and their responses to 10 targeted questions on quantity of produce (fruits and vegetables) delivery received and further supplied, reasons for waste generation and innovations applied or being considered to reduce and utilize food waste. Data were computed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS version 21). Among the wholesalers 52% were primary wholesalers (buy produce directly from growers) and 48% were secondary wholesalers (buy produce in bulk from major wholesalers and supply to the local retail market, caterers, and customers with specific requirements). Average fruit and vegetable waste was 180 Kilogram per week per primary wholesaler and 30 Kilogram per secondary wholesaler. Based on this survey, the fruit and vegetable waste at wholesaler stage was estimated at about 286 tonnes per year. The secondary wholesalers distributed pre-ordered commodities, which minimized the potential to cause waste. Non-parametric test (Mann Whitney test) was carried out to assess contributions of wholesalers to waste generation. Over 56% of secondary wholesalers generally had nothing to bin as waste. Pearson’s correlation coefficient analysis showed positive correlation (r = 0.425; P=0.01) between the quantity of produce received and waste generated. Low market demand was the predominant reason identified by the wholesalers for waste generation. About a third of the wholesalers suggested that high cosmetic standards for fruits and vegetables - appearance, shape, and size - should be relaxed to reduce waste. Donation of unutilized fruits and vegetables to charity was overwhelmingly (95%) considered as one of the best options for utilization of discarded produce. The extent of waste at other stages of fruit and vegetable supply chain is currently being studied.Keywords: food waste, fruits and vegetables, supply chain, waste generation
Procedia PDF Downloads 31219933 Benchmarking Machine Learning Approaches for Forecasting Hotel Revenue
Authors: Rachel Y. Zhang, Christopher K. Anderson
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A critical aspect of revenue management is a firm’s ability to predict demand as a function of price. Historically hotels have used simple time series models (regression and/or pick-up based models) owing to the complexities of trying to build casual models of demands. Machine learning approaches are slowly attracting attention owing to their flexibility in modeling relationships. This study provides an overview of approaches to forecasting hospitality demand – focusing on the opportunities created by machine learning approaches, including K-Nearest-Neighbors, Support vector machine, Regression Tree, and Artificial Neural Network algorithms. The out-of-sample performances of above approaches to forecasting hotel demand are illustrated by using a proprietary sample of the market level (24 properties) transactional data for Las Vegas NV. Causal predictive models can be built and evaluated owing to the availability of market level (versus firm level) data. This research also compares and contrast model accuracy of firm-level models (i.e. predictive models for hotel A only using hotel A’s data) to models using market level data (prices, review scores, location, chain scale, etc… for all hotels within the market). The prospected models will be valuable for hotel revenue prediction given the basic characters of a hotel property or can be applied in performance evaluation for an existed hotel. The findings will unveil the features that play key roles in a hotel’s revenue performance, which would have considerable potential usefulness in both revenue prediction and evaluation.Keywords: hotel revenue, k-nearest-neighbors, machine learning, neural network, prediction model, regression tree, support vector machine
Procedia PDF Downloads 13219932 Optimization Approach to Integrated Production-Inventory-Routing Problem for Oxygen Supply Chains
Authors: Yena Lee, Vassilis M. Charitopoulos, Karthik Thyagarajan, Ian Morris, Jose M. Pinto, Lazaros G. Papageorgiou
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With globalisation, the need to have better coordination of production and distribution decisions has become increasingly important for industrial gas companies in order to remain competitive in the marketplace. In this work, we investigate a problem that integrates production, inventory, and routing decisions in a liquid oxygen supply chain. The oxygen supply chain consists of production facilities, external third-party suppliers, and multiple customers, including hospitals and industrial customers. The product produced by the plants or sourced from the competitors, i.e., third-party suppliers, is distributed by a fleet of heterogenous vehicles to satisfy customer demands. The objective is to minimise the total operating cost involving production, third-party, and transportation costs. The key decisions for production include production and inventory levels and product amount from third-party suppliers. In contrast, the distribution decisions involve customer allocation, delivery timing, delivery amount, and vehicle routing. The optimisation of the coordinated production, inventory, and routing decisions is a challenging problem, especially when dealing with large-size problems. Thus, we present a two-stage procedure to solve the integrated problem efficiently. First, the problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model by simplifying the routing component. The solution from the first-stage MILP model yields the optimal customer allocation, production and inventory levels, and delivery timing and amount. Then, we fix the previous decisions and solve a detailed routing. In the second stage, we propose a column generation scheme to address the computational complexity of the resulting detailed routing problem. A case study considering a real-life oxygen supply chain in the UK is presented to illustrate the capability of the proposed models and solution method. Furthermore, a comparison of the solutions from the proposed approach with the corresponding solutions provided by existing metaheuristic techniques (e.g., guided local search and tabu search algorithms) is presented to evaluate the efficiency.Keywords: production planning, inventory routing, column generation, mixed-integer linear programming
Procedia PDF Downloads 11219931 Single Ended Primary Inductance Converter with Internal Model Controller
Authors: Fatih Suleyman Taskincan, Ahmet Karaarslan
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In this article, the study and analysis of Single Ended Primary Inductance Converter (SEPIC) are presented for battery charging applications that will be used in military applications. The usage of this kind of converters come from its advantage of non-reverse polarity at outputs. As capacitors charge and discharge through inductance, peak current does not occur on capacitors. Therefore, the efficiency will be high compared to buck-boost converters. In this study, the converter (SEPIC) is designed to be operated with Internal Model Controller (IMC). The traditional controllers like Proportional Integral Controller are not preferred as its linearity behavior. Hence IMC is designed for this converter. This controller is a model-based control and provides more robustness and better set point monitoring. Moreover, it can be used for an unstable process where the conventional controller cannot handle the dynamic operation. Matlab/Simulink environment is used to simulate the converter and its controller, then, the results are shown and discussed.Keywords: DC/DC converter, single ended primary inductance converter, SEPIC, internal model controller, IMC, switched mode power supply
Procedia PDF Downloads 62819930 Survey of Corrosion and Scaling of Urban Drinking Water Supply Reservoirs (Case Study: Ilam City)
Authors: Ehsan Derikvand, Hamid Kaykha, Rooholah Mansoori Yekta, Taleb Javanmard, Mohsen Mehdi Zadeh
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Corrosion and scaling are one of the most complicated and costly problems of drinking water supply. Corrosion has adverse effect on general health and public acceptance of water source and drinking water supply costs. The present study aimed to determine the potentials of corrosion and scaling of potable water supply reservoirs of Ilam city in June 2013 and August 2014 by Langelier Index (LI) and Reynar. The results of experiments and calculations show that the mean index of LSI in the first and second sampling stages is 0.34, 0.2, respectively and the mean index RSI in the first and second stages of sampling is 7.15 and 7.22, respectively. Based on LSI index of reservoirs water in the first phase, none of stations are corrosive and only one station in the second sampling phase has corrosive tendency. According to RSI index, there is no corrosive tendency in two phases. Based on the results, the water of drinking water reservoirs in Ilam city has no corrosion tendency and the analyses and results of Langelier Index (LI) and Ryznar are in relatively good condition.Keywords: corrosion, scaling, water reservoirs, langelier and ryznar indices, Ilam city
Procedia PDF Downloads 40919929 Simulation of a Sustainable Irrigation System Development: The Case of Sitio Kantaling Village Farm Lands, Danao City, Cebu, Philippines
Authors: Amando A. Radomes Jr., LLoyd Jun Benjamin T. Embernatre, Cherssy Kaye F. Eviota, Krizia Allyn L. Nunez, Jose Thaddeus B. Roble III
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Sitio Kantaling is one of the 34 villages in Danao City, Cebu, in the central Philippines. As of 2015, the eight households in the mountainous village extending over 40 hectares of land area, including 12 hectares of arable land, are the source of over a fifth of the agricultural products that go into the city. Over the years, however, the local government had been concerned with the decline in agricultural productivity because increasing number of residents are migrating into the urban areas of the region to look for better employment opportunities. One of the major reasons for the agricultural productivity decline is underdeveloped irrigation infrastructure. The local government had partnered with the University of San Carlos to conduct research on developing an irrigation system that could sustainably meet both agricultural and household consumption needs. From a macro-perspective, a dynamic simulation model was developed to understand the long-term behavior of the status quo and proposed the system. Data on population, water supply and demand, household income, and urban migration were incorporated in the 20-year horizon model. The study also developed a smart irrigation system design. Instead of using electricity to pump water, a network of aqueducts with three main nodes had been designed and strategically located to take advantage of gravity to transport water from a spring. Simulation results showed that implementing a sustainable irrigation system would be able to significantly contribute to the socio-economic progress of the local community.Keywords: agriculture, aqueduct, simulation, sustainable irrigation system
Procedia PDF Downloads 17219928 The Effects of Green Logistics Management Practices on Sustainability Performance in Nigeria
Authors: Ozoemelam Ikechukwu Lazarus, Nizamuddin B. Zainuddi, Abdul Kafi
Abstract:
Numerous studies have been carried out on Green Logistics Management Practices (GLMPs) across the globe. The study on the practices and performance of green chain practices in Africa in particular has not gained enough scholarly attention. Again, the majority of supply chain sustainability research being conducted focus on environmental sustainability. Logistics has been a major cause of supply chain resource waste and environmental damage. Many sectors of the economy that engage in logistical operations significantly rely on vehicles, which emit pollutants into the environment. Due to urbanization and industrialization, the logistical operations of manufacturing companies represent a serious hazard to the society and human life, making the sector one of the fastest expanding in the world today. Logistics companies are faced with numerous difficulties when attempting to implement logistics practices along their supply chains. In Nigeria, manufacturing companies aspire to implement reverse logistics in response to stakeholders’ requirements to reduce negative environmental consequences. However, implementing this is impeded by a criteria framework, and necessitates the careful analysis of how such criteria interact with each other in the presence of uncertainty. This study integrates most of the green logistics management practices (GLMPs) into the Nigerian firms to improve generalizability, and credibility. It examines the effect of Green Logistics Management Practices on environmental performance, social performance, market performance, and financial performance in the logistics industries. It seeks to identify the critical success factors in order to develop a model that incorporates different factors from the perspectives of the technology, organization, human and environment to inform the adoption and use of technologies for logistics supply chain social sustainability in Nigeria. It uses exploratory research approach to collect and analyse the data.Keywords: logistics, management, sustainability, environment, operations
Procedia PDF Downloads 8119927 Investigating the Influence of Roof Fairing on Aerodynamic Drag of a Bluff Body
Authors: Kushal Kumar Chode
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Increase in demand for fuel saving and demand for faster vehicles with decent fuel economy, researchers around the world started investigating in various passive flow control devices to improve the fuel efficiency of vehicles. In this paper, A roof fairing was investigated for reducing the aerodynamic drag of a bluff body. The bluff body considered for this work is Ahmed model with a rake angle of 25deg was and subjected to flow with a velocity of 40m/s having Reynolds number of 2.68million was analysed using a commercial Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) code Star CCM+. It was evident that pressure drag is the main source of drag on an Ahmed body from the initial study. Adding a roof fairing has delayed the flow separation and resulted in delaying wake formation, thus improving the pressure in near weak and reducing the wake region. Adding a roof fairing of height and length equal to 1/7H and 1/3L respectively has shown a drag reduction by 9%. However, an optimised fairing, which was obtained by changing height, length and width by 5% increase, recorded a drag reduction close 12%.Keywords: Ahmed model, aerodynamic drag, passive flow control, roof fairing, wake formation
Procedia PDF Downloads 44119926 Engaging Citizen, Sustaining Service Delivery of Rural Water Supply in Indonesia
Authors: Rahmi Yetri Kasri, Paulus Wirutomo
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Citizen engagement approach has become increasingly important in the rural water sector. However, the question remains as to what exactly is meant by citizen engagement and how this approach can lead to sustainable service delivery. To understand citizen engagement, this paper argues that we need to understand basic elements of social life that consist of social structure, process, and culture within the realm of community’s living environment. Extracting from empirical data from Pamsimas villages in rural West Java, Indonesia, this paper will identify basic elements of social life and environment that influence and form the engagement of citizen and government in delivering and sustaining rural water supply services in Indonesia. Pamsimas or the Water Supply and Sanitation for Low Income Communities project is the biggest rural water program in Indonesia, implemented since 1993 in more than 27,000 villages. The sustainability of this sector is explored through a rural water supply service delivery life-cycle, starts with capital investment, operational and maintenance, asset expansion or renewal, strategic planning for future services and matching cost with financing. Using mixed-method data collection in case study research, this paper argues that increased citizen engagement contributes to a more sustainable rural water service delivery.Keywords: citizen engagement, rural water supply, sustainability, Indonesia
Procedia PDF Downloads 26919925 Selective Extraction of Lithium from Native Geothermal Brines Using Lithium-ion Sieves
Authors: Misagh Ghobadi, Rich Crane, Karen Hudson-Edwards, Clemens Vinzenz Ullmann
Abstract:
Lithium is recognized as the critical energy metal of the 21st century, comparable in importance to coal in the 19th century and oil in the 20th century, often termed 'white gold'. Current global demand for lithium, estimated at 0.95-0.98 million metric tons (Mt) of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) annually in 2024, is projected to rise to 1.87 Mt by 2027 and 3.06 Mt by 2030. Despite anticipated short-term stability in supply and demand, meeting the forecasted 2030 demand will require the lithium industry to develop an additional capacity of 1.42 Mt of LCE annually, exceeding current planned and ongoing efforts. Brine resources constitute nearly 65% of global lithium reserves, underscoring the importance of exploring lithium recovery from underutilized sources, especially geothermal brines. However, conventional lithium extraction from brine deposits faces challenges due to its time-intensive process, low efficiency (30-50% lithium recovery), unsuitability for low lithium concentrations (<300 mg/l), and notable environmental impacts. Addressing these challenges, direct lithium extraction (DLE) methods have emerged as promising technologies capable of economically extracting lithium even from low-concentration brines (>50 mg/l) with high recovery rates (75-98%). However, most studies (70%) have predominantly focused on synthetic brines instead of native (natural/real), with limited application of these approaches in real-world case studies or industrial settings. This study aims to bridge this gap by investigating a geothermal brine sample collected from a real case study site in the UK. A Mn-based lithium-ion sieve (LIS) adsorbent was synthesized and employed to selectively extract lithium from the sample brine. Adsorbents with a Li:Mn molar ratio of 1:1 demonstrated superior lithium selectivity and adsorption capacity. Furthermore, the pristine Mn-based adsorbent was modified through transition metals doping, resulting in enhanced lithium selectivity and adsorption capacity. The modified adsorbent exhibited a higher separation factor for lithium over major co-existing cations such as Ca, Mg, Na, and K, with separation factors exceeding 200. The adsorption behaviour was well-described by the Langmuir model, indicating monolayer adsorption, and the kinetics followed a pseudo-second-order mechanism, suggesting chemisorption at the solid surface. Thermodynamically, negative ΔG° values and positive ΔH° and ΔS° values were observed, indicating the spontaneity and endothermic nature of the adsorption process.Keywords: adsorption, critical minerals, DLE, geothermal brines, geochemistry, lithium, lithium-ion sieves
Procedia PDF Downloads 4619924 Child Trafficking for Adoption Purposes: A Study into the Criminogenic Factors of the German Intercountry Adoption System
Authors: Elvira Loibl
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In Western countries, the demand for adoptable children, especially healthy babies, has been considerably high for several years. Rising infertility rates, liberal abortion politics, the widespread use of contraception, and the increasing acceptance of unmarried motherhood are factors that have decreased the number of infants available for domestic adoption in the U.S. and Europe. As a consequence, many involuntarily childless couples turn to intercountry adoption as a viable alternative to have a child of their own. However, the demand for children far outpaces the supply of orphans with the desired characteristics. The imbalance between the number of prospective adopters and the children available for intercountry adoption results in long waiting lists and high prices. The inordinate sums of money involved in the international adoption system have created a commercial ‘underbelly’ where unethical and illicit practices are employed to provide the adoption market with adoptable children. Children are being purchased or abducted from their families, hospitals or child care institutions and then trafficked to receiving countries as ‘orphans’. This paper aims to uncover and explain the factors of the German adoption system that are conducive to child trafficking for adoption purposes. It explains that the tension between money and integrity as experienced by German adoption agencies, blind trust in the authorities in the sending countries as well as a lenient control system encourage and facilitate the trafficking in children to Germany.Keywords: child trafficking, intercountry adoption, market in adoptable babies, German adoption system
Procedia PDF Downloads 29219923 The Impacts of Green Logistics Management Practices on Sustainability Performance in Nigeria
Authors: Ozoemelam Ikechukwu Lazarus, Nizamuddin B. Zainuddin, Abdul Kafi
Abstract:
Numerous studies have been carried out on Green Logistics Management Practices (GLMPs) across the globe. The study on the practices and performance of green chain practices in Africa in particular has not gained enough scholarly attention. Again, the majority of supply chain sustainability research being conducted focus on environmental sustainability. Logistics has been a major cause of supply chain resource waste and environmental damage. Many sectors of the economy that engage in logistical operations significantly rely on vehicles, which emit pollutants into the environment. Due to urbanization and industrialization, the logistical operations of manufacturing companies represent a serious hazard to the society and human life, making the sector one of the fastest expanding in the world today. Logistics companies are faced with numerous difficulties when attempting to implement logistics practices along their supply chains. In Nigeria, manufacturing companies aspire to implement reverse logistics in response to stakeholders’ requirements to reduce negative environmental consequences. However, implementing this is impeded by a criteria framework, and necessitates the careful analysis of how such criteria interact with each other in the presence of uncertainty. This study integrates most of the green logistics management practices (GLMPs) into the Nigerian firms to improve generalizability, and credibility. It examines the effect of Green Logistics Management Practices on environmental performance, social performance, market performance, and financial performance in the logistics industries. It seeks to identify the critical success factors in order to develop a model that incorporates different factors from the perspectives of the technology, organization, human and environment to inform the adoption and use of technologies for logistics supply chain social sustainability in Nigeria. It uses exploratory research approach to collect and analyse the data.Keywords: logistics, managemernt, suatainability, environment, operations
Procedia PDF Downloads 61