Search results for: scenario modelling

Authors: Marianna Bolla

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The aim of this paper is to compare spectral, discrepancy, and degree properties of expanding graph sequences. As we can prove equivalences and implications between them and the definition of the generalized (multiclass) quasirandomness of Lovasz–Sos (2008), they can be regarded as generalized quasirandom properties akin to the equivalent quasirandom properties of the seminal Chung-Graham-Wilson paper (1989) in the one-class scenario. Since these properties are valid for deterministic graph sequences, irrespective of stochastic models, the partial implications also justify for low-dimensional embedding of large-scale graphs and for discrepancy minimizing spectral clustering.

Keywords: generalized random graphs, multiway discrepancy, normalized modularity spectra, spectral clustering

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Authors: Diego Caballero Vélez

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In 1997 the Schengen Convention was incorporated in the mainstream of EU law by the Amsterdam Treaty. It came into effect in 1999 with the abolition of internal border controls in the EU, a milestone in the European integration project. In the meantime, due to the Yugoslav wars, nearly 700,000 asylum applications were filed in the European countries provoking a major refugee crisis. During this period, the opening of Eastern Europe fostered more cooperation and policy-making at the EU level in migration issues. Currently, a similar migratory crisis is taking place in Europe. The Syrian war has caused the most massive influx of immigrants in Europe since World War II. Nevertheless, the EU is adopting different migration policies from those implemented during the Yugoslav migration crisis. The current crisis has not led to a common European position but national responses have been offered on migration policies and responsibility for border security and asylum-seekers. A lot of factors can explain this change from a cooperation scenario to a no cooperation one, such as the economic crisis, but this research is focused on the premise that 'threat perception' lies at the core of some states grand strategies towards migration and it also influences in multilateral or unilateral responses. Migration rests at the nexus of three dimensions of security, including geopolitical interests, material production, and internal security. According to some scholars, migration policy is an 'integral instrument' of state grand strategy in that context. Political integration at the EU might be altered with the emergence of existential threats. In other words, some areas of the European cooperation can be transformed when a 'critical juncture' occurs, for instance a migration crisis. In that instance, Member states could see migration as a matter of threat that modifies their national interests and willingness to embrace international cooperation. This research will focus on EU Member states´ perceptions of the 90´s migration crisis and the current one. The goal is to evaluate to what extent the perceptions of threat are one of the main factors for explaining the transition from a cooperation scenario to a no-cooperation one in European asylum and security policies. To analyze threat perception in both migration crisis, some relevant Member states are treated as cases of study and a comparative analysis is carried out based on public opinion polls, public and policy discourse in migration, voting practices and deconstruction of the migration policies themselves both at EU level and a national one.

Keywords: cooperation, migration crisis, national responses, threat perception

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Authors: Kristina Sutiene, Lina Dapkute

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The paper investigates the current demographic trends that exert the sustainability of pension systems in most EU regions. Several drivers usually compose the demographic challenge, coming from the structure and trends of population in the country. As the case of research, three main variables of demographic risk in Lithuania have been singled out and have been used in making up the analysis. Over the last two decades, the country has presented a peculiar demographic situation characterized by pessimistic fertility trends, negative net migration rate and rising life expectancy that make the significant changes in labor-age population. This study, therefore, sets out to assess the relative impact of these risk factors both individually and in aggregate, while assuming economic trends to evolve historically. The evidence is presented using data of pension funds that operate in Lithuania and are financed by defined-contribution plans. To achieve this goal, the discrete-time pension fund’s value model is developed that reflects main operational modalities: contribution income from current participants and new entrants, pension disbursement and administrative expenses; it also fluctuates based on returns from investment activity. Age-structured Leslie population dynamics model has been integrated into the main model to describe the dynamics of fertility, migration and mortality rates upon age. Validation has concluded that Leslie model adequately fits the current population trends in Lithuania. The elasticity of pension system is examined using Loimaranta efficiency as a measure for comparison of plausible long-term developments of demographic risks. With respect to the research question, it was found that demographic risks have different levels of influence on future value of aggregated pension funds: The fertility rates have the highest importance, while mortality rates give only a minor impact. Further studies regarding the role of trying out different economic scenarios in the integrated model would be worthwhile.

Keywords: asset liability modelling, Leslie model, pension funds, population dynamics

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Authors: Sukhvinder Kaur, Ashok Agarwal

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Background: For the first time in 2009, India was able to generate estimates of HIV incidence (the number of new HIV infections per year). Analysis of epidemic projections helped in revealing that the number of new annual HIV infections in India had declined by more than 50% during the last decade (GOI Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, 2010). Then, National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) planned to scale up its efforts in generating projections through epidemiological analysis and modelling by taking recent available sources of evidence such as HIV Sentinel Surveillance (HSS), India Census data and other critical data sets. Recently, NACO generated current round of HIV estimates-2012 through globally recommended tool “Spectrum Software” and came out with the estimates for adult HIV prevalence, annual new infections, number of people living with HIV, AIDS-related deaths and treatment needs. State level prevalence and incidence projections produced were used to project consequences of the epidemic in spectrum. In presence of HIV estimates generated at state level in India by NACO, USIAD funded PIPPSE project under the leadership of NACO undertook the estimations and projections to district level using same Spectrum software. In 2011, adult HIV prevalence in one of the high prevalent States, Maharashtra was 0.42% ahead of the national average of 0.27%. Considering the heterogeneity of HIV epidemic between districts, two districts of Maharashtra – Thane and Mumbai were selected to estimate and project the number of People-Living-with-HIV/AIDS (PLHIV), HIV-prevalence among adults and annual new HIV infections till 2017. Methodology: Inputs in spectrum included demographic data from Census of India since 1980 and sample registration system, programmatic data on ‘Alive and on ART (adult and children)’,‘Mother-Baby pairs under PPTCT’ and ‘High Risk Group (HRG)-size mapping estimates’, surveillance data from various rounds of HSS, National Family Health Survey–III, Integrated Biological and Behavioural Assessment and Behavioural Sentinel Surveillance. Major Findings: Assuming current programmatic interventions in these districts, an estimated decrease of 12% points in Thane and 31% points in Mumbai among new infections in HRGs and migrants is observed from 2011 by 2017. Conclusions: Project also validated decrease in HIV new infection among one of the high risk groups-FSWs using program cohort data since 2012 to 2016. Though there is a decrease in HIV prevalence and new infections in Thane and Mumbai, further decrease is possible if appropriate programme response, strategies and interventions are envisaged for specific target groups based on this evidence. Moreover, evidence need to be validated by other estimation/modelling techniques; and evidence can be generated for other districts of the state, where HIV prevalence is high and reliable data sources are available, to understand the epidemic within the local context.

Keywords: HIV sentinel surveillance, high risk groups, projections, new infections

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Authors: Ravi Verma

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Cryosorption pump is the best solution to achieve clean, vibration free ultra-high vacuum. Furthermore, the operation of cryosorption pump is free from the influence of electric and magnetic fields. Due to these attributes, this pump is used in the space simulation chamber to create the ultra-high vacuum. The cryosorption pump comprises of three parts (a) panel which is cooled with the help of cryogen or cryocooler, (b) an adsorbent which is used to adsorb the gas molecules, (c) an epoxy which holds the adsorbent and the panel together thereby aiding in heat transfer from adsorbent to the panel. The performance of cryosorption pump depends on the temperature of the adsorbent and hence, on the thermal conductivity of the epoxy. Therefore we have made an attempt to increase the thermal conductivity of epoxy adhesive by mixing nano-sized graphene filler particles. The thermal conductivity of epoxy-graphene composite adhesive is measured with the help of indigenously developed experimental setup in the temperature range from 4.5 K to 7 K, which is generally the operating temperature range of cryosorption pump for efficiently pumping of hydrogen and helium gas. In this article, we have presented the experimental results of epoxy-graphene composite adhesive in the temperature range from 4.5 K to 7 K. We have also proposed an analytical heat conduction model to find the thermal conductivity of the composite. In this case, the filler particles, such as graphene, are randomly distributed in a base matrix of epoxy. The developed model considers the complete spatial random distribution of filler particles and this distribution is explained by Binomial distribution. The results obtained by the model have been compared with the experimental results as well as with the other established models. The developed model is able to predict the thermal conductivity in both isotropic regions as well as in anisotropic region over the required temperature range from 4.5 K to 7 K. Due to the non-empirical nature of the proposed model, it will be useful for the prediction of other properties of composite materials involving the filler in a base matrix. The present studies will aid in the understanding of low temperature heat transfer which in turn will be useful towards the development of high performance cryosorption pump.

Keywords: composite adhesive, computational modelling, cryosorption pump, thermal conductivity

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Authors: Cosmas Pandit Pagwiwoko, Ammar Khaled Abdelaziz Abdelsamia

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Flutter as a phenomenon of flow-induced and self-excited vibration has to be recognized considering its harmful effect on the structure especially in a stage of aircraft design. This phenomenon is also important for a wind energy harvester based on the fluttering surface due to its effective operational velocity range. This multi-physics occurrence can be presented by two governing equations in both fluid and structure simultaneously in respecting certain boundary conditions on the surface of the body. In this work, the equations are resolved separately by two distinct solvers, one-time step of each domain. The modelling and simulation of this flow-structure interaction in ANSYS show the effectiveness of this loosely coupled method in representing flutter phenomenon however the process is time-consuming for design purposes. Therefore, another technique using the same weak coupled aero-structure is proposed by using system dynamics approach. In this technique, the aerodynamic forces were calculated using singularity function for a range of frequencies and certain natural mode shapes are transformed into time domain by employing an approximation model of fraction rational function in Laplace variable. The representation of structure in a multi-degree-of-freedom coupled with a transfer function of aerodynamic forces can then be simulated in time domain on a block-diagram platform such as Simulink MATLAB. The dynamic response of flutter at certain velocity can be evaluated with another established flutter calculation in frequency domain k-method. In this method, a parameter of artificial structural damping is inserted in the equation of motion to assure the energy balance of flow and vibrating structure. The simulation in time domain is particularly interested as it enables to apply the structural non-linear factors accurately. Experimental tests on a fluttering airfoil in the wind tunnel are also conducted to validate the method.

Keywords: flutter, flow-induced vibration, flow-structure interaction, non-linear structure

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Authors: Colin O’Hare, Zili Zho, Thomas Sneddon

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The Australian superannuation system has received high praise for its participation rates and level of funding in retirement yet it is only 25 years old. In recent years, with increasing longevity and persistent lower rates of investment return, how adequate will the funds accumulated through a superannuation system be? In this paper we take Australia as a case study and build a stochastic model of accumulation and decummulation of funds and determine the expected number of years a fund may last an individual in retirement.

Keywords: component, mortality, stochastic models, superannuation

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Authors: Mansur Hamma-Adama, Tahar Kouider

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Construction Industry has been evolving since the development of Building Information Modelling (BIM). This technological process is unstoppable; it is out to the market with remarkable case studies of solving the long industry’s history of fragmentation. This industry has been changing over time; United States has recorded the most significant development in construction digitalization, Australia, United Kingdom and some other developed nations are also amongst promoters of BIM process and its development. Recently, a developing country like China and Malaysia are keying into the industry’s digital shift, while very little move is seen in South Africa whose development is considered higher and perhaps leader in the digital transition amongst the African countries. To authors’ best knowledge, Nigerian construction industry has never engaged in BIM discussions hence has no attention at national level. Consequently, Nigeria has no “Noteworthy BIM publications.” Decision makers and key stakeholders need to be informed on the current trend of the industry’s development (BIM in specific) and the opportunities of adopting this digitalization trend in relation to the identified challenges. BIM concept can be traced mostly in Architectural practices than engineering practices in Nigeria. A superficial BIM practice is found to be at organisational level only and operating a model based - “BIM stage 1.” Research to adopting this innovation has received very little attention. This piece of work is literature review based, aimed at exploring BIM in Nigeria and its prospects. The exploration reveals limitations in the literature availability as to extensive research in the development of BIM in the country. Numerous challenges were noticed including building collapse, inefficiencies, cost overrun and late project delivery. BIM has potentials to overcome the above challenges and even beyond. Low level of BIM adoption with reasonable level of awareness is noticed. However, lack of policy and guideline as well as serious lack of experts in the field are amongst the major barriers to BIM adoption. The industry needs to embrace BIM to possibly compete with its global counterpart.

Keywords: adoption, BIM, CAD, construction industry, Nigeria, opportunities

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Authors: Madeline Tagg, Choihoong Mui, Elizabeth Lek, Jide Menakaya

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Introduction: Simulation technology is used by neonatal teams to learn and refresh skills and gain the knowledge and confidence to care for sick neonates. In-situ simulation is considered superior to laboratory-based programmes as it closely mirrors real life situations. This study reports our experience of running regular laboratory-based simulation sessions for senior clinicians and nurses and its impact on their knowledge, skills and confidence. Methods: A before and after questionnaire survey was carried out on senior clinicians and nurses that attended a scheduled laboratory-based simulation session. Participants were asked to document their expectations before a 3-hour monthly laboratory programme started and invited to feedback their reflections at the end of the session. The session included discussion of relevant clinical guidelines, immersion in a scenario and video led debrief. The results of the survey were analysed in three skills based categories - improved, no change or a worsened experience. Results: 45 questionnaires were completed and analysed. Of these 25 (55%) were completed by consultants seven and six by nurses and trainee doctors respectively, and seven respondents were unknown. 40 (88%) rated the session overall and guideline review as good/excellent, 39 respondents (86%) rated the scenario session good/excellent and 40/45 fed back a good/excellent debrief session. 33 (73%) respondents completed the before and after questionnaire. 21/33 (63%) reflected an improved knowledge, skill or confidence in caring for sick new-bon babies, eight respondents reported no change and four fed back a worse experience after the session. Discussion: Most respondents found the laboratory based structured simulation session beneficial for their professional development. They valued equally the whole content of the programme such as guideline review and equipment training as well as the simulation and debrief sessions. Two out three participants stated their knowledge of caring for sick new-born babies had been transformed positively by the session. Sessions where simulation equipment failed or relevant staff were absent contributed to a poor educational experience. Summary: A regular structured laboratory-based simulation programme with a rich content is a credible educational resource for improving the knowledge, skills and confidence of senior clinicians caring for sick new born babies.

Keywords: knowledge, laboratory based, neonates, simulation

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Authors: Said Echchakoui

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This paper aims to investigate how experiential value added by the salesperson mediates the relationship between perceived salesperson source characteristics and his performance. Structural equation modelling was employed to assess the proposed research model empirically. The empirical results revealed that the three dimensions of experiential value economic benefit, service productivity and enjoyable interaction, mediated the relationship between perceived salesperson source characteristics and his performance. Managerial implications are addressed.

Keywords: sales force, experiential added value, customer perceived value, performance

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Authors: Mohamad R. Moshtagh, Ahmad Bagheri

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Accurate fault detection in rotating machinery is of utmost importance to ensure optimal performance and prevent costly downtime in industrial applications. This study presents a robust fault detection system based on vibration data collected from rotating gears under various operating conditions. The considered scenarios include: (1) both gears being healthy, (2) one healthy gear and one faulty gear, and (3) introducing an imbalanced condition to a healthy gear. Vibration data was acquired using a Hentek 1008 device and stored in a CSV file. Python code implemented in the Spider environment was used for data preprocessing and analysis. Winner features were extracted using the Wiener feature selection method. These features were then employed in multiple machine learning algorithms, including Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Random Forest, to evaluate their performance in detecting and classifying faults in both the training and validation datasets. The comparative analysis of the methods revealed the superior performance of the Wiener-CNN approach. The Wiener-CNN method achieved a remarkable accuracy of 100% for both the two-class (healthy gear and faulty gear) and three-class (healthy gear, faulty gear, and imbalanced) scenarios in the training and validation datasets. In contrast, the other methods exhibited varying levels of accuracy. The Wiener-MLP method attained 100% accuracy for the two-class training dataset and 100% for the validation dataset. For the three-class scenario, the Wiener-MLP method demonstrated 100% accuracy in the training dataset and 95.3% accuracy in the validation dataset. The Wiener-KNN method yielded 96.3% accuracy for the two-class training dataset and 94.5% for the validation dataset. In the three-class scenario, it achieved 85.3% accuracy in the training dataset and 77.2% in the validation dataset. The Wiener-Random Forest method achieved 100% accuracy for the two-class training dataset and 85% for the validation dataset, while in the three-class training dataset, it attained 100% accuracy and 90.8% accuracy for the validation dataset. The exceptional accuracy demonstrated by the Wiener-CNN method underscores its effectiveness in accurately identifying and classifying fault conditions in rotating machinery. The proposed fault detection system utilizes vibration data analysis and advanced machine learning techniques to improve operational reliability and productivity. By adopting the Wiener-CNN method, industrial systems can benefit from enhanced fault detection capabilities, facilitating proactive maintenance and reducing equipment downtime.

Keywords: fault detection, gearbox, machine learning, wiener method

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Authors: Haffaf Hafid

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Hypergraphs, after being used to model the structural organization of System of Sytems (SoS) at macroscopic level, has recent trends towards generalizing this powerful representation at different stages of complex system modelling. In this paper, we first describe different applications of hypergraph theory, and step by step, introduce multilevel modeling of SoS by means of integrating Constraint Programming Langages (CSP) dealing with engineering system reconfiguration strategy. As an application, we give an A.C.T Terminal controlled by a set of Intelligent Automated Vehicle.

Keywords: hypergraph model, structural analysis, bipartite graph, monitoring, system of systems, reconfiguration analysis, hypernetwork

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Authors: J. Kaabi, Y. Harrath

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This paper studied the flow shop scheduling problem under machine availability constraints. The machines are subject to flexible preventive maintenance activities. The nonresumable scenario for the jobs was considered. That is, when a job is interrupted by an unavailability period of a machine it should be restarted from the beginning. The objective is to minimize the total tardiness time for the jobs and the advance/tardiness for the maintenance activities. To solve the problem, a genetic algorithm was developed and successfully tested and validated on many problem instances. The computational results showed that the new genetic algorithm outperforms another earlier proposed algorithm.

Keywords: flow shop scheduling, genetic algorithm, maintenance, priority rules

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Authors: Nan Wu, Peng Liu

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As a morphological element reflecting the land property rights structure, the plot pattern plays a crucial role in shaping the form and quality of the built environment. Therefore, it is one of the core control elements of urban regeneration. As China's urban development mode is shifting from growth-based development to urban regeneration, it is urgent to explore a more refined way for the planning control of the plot pattern, which further promotes the optimization of urban form and land property structure. European and American countries such as Germany and the United States began to deal with the planning control of plot patterns in urban regeneration earlier and established relatively mature methods and mechanisms. Therefore, this paper summarizes two typical scenarios of plot pattern regeneration in old cities in China: the first one is "limited scale plot pattern rezoning", which mainly deals with the regeneration scenario of tearing down the old and building the new, and the focus of its control is to establish an adaptive plot pattern rezoning methodology and mechanism; The second is "localized parcel regeneration under the existing property rights," which mainly deals with the renewal scenario of alteration and addition, and its control focuses on the establishment of control rules for individual plot regeneration. For the two typical plot pattern regeneration scenarios, Germany (Berlin) and the United States (New York) are selected as two international cases with reference significance, and the framework of plot pattern form and property rights control elements of urban regeneration is established from four latitudes, namely, the overall operation mode, form control methods, property rights control methods, and effective implementation prerequisites, so as to compare and analyze the plot pattern control methods of the two countries under different land systems and regeneration backgrounds. Among them, the German construction planning system has formed a more complete technical methodology for block-scale rezoning, and together with the overall urban design, it has created a practical example in the critical redevelopment of the inner city of Berlin. In the United States (New York), the zoning method establishes fine zoning regulations and rules for adjusting development rights based on the morphological indicators plots so as to realize effective control over the regeneration of local plots under the existing property rights pattern. On the basis of summarizing the international experience, we put forward the proposal of plot pattern and property rights control for the organic regeneration of old cities in China.

Keywords: plot pattern, urban regeneration, urban morphology, property rights, regulatory planning

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Authors: Rafael Martins Manzano Silva, Jean-Francois Tremong

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Electrification of railway lines allows to increase speed, power, capacity and energetic efficiency of rolling stocks. However, this process of electrification is complex and costly. An electrification project is not just about design of catenary. It also includes installation of structures around electrification, as substation installation, electrical isolation, signalling, telecommunication and civil engineering structures. France has more than 30,000 km of railways, whose only 53% are electrified. The others 47% of railways use diesel locomotive and represent only 10% of the circulation (tons.km). For this reason, a new type of electrification, less expensive than the usual, is requested to enable the modernization of these railways. One solution could be the use of hybrids trains. This technology opens up new opportunities for less expensive infrastructure development such as the partial electrification of railway lines. In a partially electrified railway, the power supply of theses hybrid trains could be made either by the catenary or by the on-board energy storage system (ESS). Thus, the on-board ESS would feed the energetic needs of the train along the non-electrified zones while in electrified zones, the catenary would feed the train and recharge the on-board ESS. This paper’s objective deals with the technical and economic potential identification of partial electrification of railway lines. This study provides different scenarios of electrification by replacing the most expensive places to electrify using on-board ESS. The target is to reduce the cost of new electrification projects, i.e. reduce the cost of electrification infrastructures while not increasing the cost of rolling stocks. In this study, scenarios are constructed in function of the electrification’s cost of each structure. The electrification’s cost varies considerably because of the installation of catenary support in tunnels, bridges and viaducts is much more expensive than in others zones of the railway. These scenarios will be used to describe the power supply system and to choose between the catenary and the on-board energy storage depending on the position of the train on the railway. To identify the influence of each partial electrification scenario in the sizing of the on-board ESS, a model of the railway line and of the rolling stock is developed for a real case. This real case concerns a railway line located in the south of France. The energy consumption and the power demanded at each point of the line for each power supply (catenary or on-board ESS) are provided at the end of the simulation. Finally, the cost of a partial electrification is obtained by adding the civil engineering costs of the zones to be electrified plus the cost of the on-board ESS. The study of the technical and economic potential ends with the identification of the most economically interesting scenario of electrification.

Keywords: electrification, hybrid, railway, storage

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Authors: Hasan Al Banna, Nazmus Sakib, Anjan Roy

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From the perspective of the underdeveloped countries such as Bangladesh, health issue can readily be pointed out as the most demanding but the least promoted concern due to lack of initiatives from both government and NGOs. Furthermore an worldwide scenario is that most death and suffering from various pathogenic and non-pathogenic diseases occur due to delay diagnosis, and this happen for the lacking of regular health check-up facility or tradition. In this epistle, an innovative proposal on social business can be introduced to ensure the one-stop medical facility to the door-step of the rural society and create jobs for the educated rural youths to serve their own people. To illustrate the policy, this newly proposed organization will work as a health club which will offer a life-time membership to villagers within a very affordable fee of 250 BDT (2.63 Euro) per month. In this package the members will get the facility of tri-monthly full health check-up by specialist doctors, a health record book and computerized health database for each member and anytime medical consultancy for the members only. We will also organize free medical campaign and workshops on nutrition, sanitation, adulteration, pregnancy-care, child-health etc with the assistance of different sponsors. Among other services that will be provided on payment include emergency ambulance facility in low rents, quality diagnostic lab and 24-hour dispensary facility. Likewise, this policy will involve local educated people by recruiting them after providing intensive courses on nursing and other medical instrumental skills. Henceforth, the engagement of local youth will make the program more acceptable to the rural community. In the later part of this paper, a survey report on Daragram union of Manikganj district, Bangladesh, having population above 25000, will be presented to delineate the scenario how this policy can repay the initial capital expense of BDT 7 million (around 73381 Euro) within 5 years and how I can realistically earn handsome revenue from the first month of business. To recapitulate, this policy is very promising to enlighten the underprivileged community by providing health assurance, and alleviating unemployment besides the investor’s financial profit.

Keywords: create job for the rural people, handsome financial profit, quality health services, underprivileged areas of underdeveloped countries

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Authors: Aathira H.

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Digital games can act as catalysts for educational transformation in the current scenario. Children and adolescence acquire this digital knowledge quickly and hence digital games can act as one of the most effective media for technology-mediated learning. Mobile gaming industries have seen the rise of a new trending genre of games, i.e., “Merge games” which is currently thriving in the market. This paper analysis on how gamifying historic and cultural narratives with merge mechanics can be an effective way to educate school children. Through the study of how merge mechanics in games have currently emerged as a trend., this paper argues how it can be integrated with a strong narrative which can convey history in an engaging way for education.

Keywords: game-based learning, merge mechanics, historical narratives, gaming innovations

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Authors: Shreyansh Adesara, Sneha Pandiya

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The mobile ad-hoc network (MANET) is an important and open area research for the examination and determination of the performance evolution. Temporary ordered routing algorithm (TORA) is adaptable and distributed MANET routing algorithm which is totally dependent on internet MANET Encapsulation protocol (IMEP) for the detection of the link and sensing of the link. If IMEP detect the wrong link failure then the network suffer from congestion and unnecessary route maintenance. Thus, the improvement in link detection method of TORA is introduced by various methods on IMEP by different perspective from different person. There are also different reactive routing protocols like AODV, TORA and DSR has been compared for the knowledge of the routing scenario for different parameter and using different model.

Keywords: IMEP, mobile ad-hoc network, protocol, TORA

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Authors: Rajaa Filali, Mohamed Bouhdadi

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This paper presents an incremental formal development of the Wireless Transaction Protocol (WTP) in Event-B. WTP is part of the Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) architectures and provides a reliable request-response service. To model and verify the protocol, we use the formal technique Event-B which provides an accessible and rigorous development method. This interaction between modelling and proving reduces the complexity and helps to eliminate misunderstandings, inconsistencies, and specification gaps. As result, verification of WTP allows us to find some deficiencies in the current specification.

Keywords: event-B, wireless transaction protocol, proof obligation, refinement, Rodin, ProB

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Authors: Samia Dardouri, Ridha Bouallegue

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Scheduling is the process of dynamically allocating physical resources to User Equipment (UE) based on scheduling algorithms implemented at the LTE base station. Various algorithms have been proposed by network researchers as the implementation of scheduling algorithm which represents an open issue in Long Term Evolution (LTE) standard. This paper makes an attempt to study and compare the performance of PF, MLWDF and EXP/PF scheduling algorithms. The evaluation is considered for a single cell with interference scenario for different flows such as Best effort, Video and VoIP in a pedestrian and vehicular environment using the LTE-Sim network simulator. The comparative study is conducted in terms of system throughput, fairness index, delay, packet loss ratio (PLR) and total cell spectral efficiency.

Keywords: LTE, multimedia flows, scheduling algorithms, mobile computing

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Authors: Timothy Kayode Samson, Adedoyin Isola Lawal

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The past five years have shown a sharp increase in public interest in the crypto market, with its market capitalization growing from $100 billion in June 2017 to $2158.42 billion on April 5, 2022. Despite the outrageous nature of the volatility of cryptocurrencies, the use of skewed error innovation distributions in modelling the volatility behaviour of these digital currencies has not been given much research attention. Hence, this study models the volatility of 5 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Binance coin, and USD Coin) using four variants of GARCH models (GJR-GARCH, sGARCH, EGARCH, and APARCH) estimated using three skewed error innovation distributions (skewed normal, skewed student- t and skewed generalized error innovation distributions). Daily closing prices of these currencies were obtained from Yahoo Finance website. Finding reveals that the Binance coin reported higher mean returns compared to other digital currencies, while the skewness indicates that the Binance coin, Tether, and USD coin increased more than they decreased in values within the period of study. For both Bitcoin and Ethereum, negative skewness was obtained, meaning that within the period of study, the returns of these currencies decreased more than they increased in value. Returns from these cryptocurrencies were found to be stationary but not normality distributed with evidence of the ARCH effect. The skewness parameters in all best forecasting models were all significant (p<.05), justifying of use of skewed error innovation distributions with a fatter tail than normal, Student-t, and generalized error innovation distributions. For Binance coin, EGARCH-sstd outperformed other volatility models, while for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, and USD coin, the best forecasting models were EGARCH-sstd, APARCH-sstd, EGARCH-sged, and GJR-GARCH-sstd, respectively. This suggests the superiority of skewed Student t- distribution and skewed generalized error distribution over the skewed normal distribution.

Keywords: skewed generalized error distribution, skewed normal distribution, skewed student t- distribution, APARCH, EGARCH, sGARCH, GJR-GARCH

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Authors: Yasir Naseem

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In this fast-growing and evolving world, usage and adoption of technology have displayed an essential component of the learning process, both in and out of the class, which converges and incorporates every domain of the learning aspects. It aids in learning distinct entities irrespective of their levels of challenge. It also incorporates both viewpoints of learning, i.e., competence as well as the performances of the learner. In today's learning scenario, nearly every language class ordinarily uses some form of technology. It integrates with various teaching methodologies and transforms in a way that now it grew as an integral part of the language learning courses. It has been employed to facilitate, promote, and enhances language learning. It facilitates educators in numerous ways and enhances their methodologies by equipping them to modify classroom activities, which covers every aspect of language learning.

Keywords: communication, methodology, technology, skills

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Authors: Sung Hyun You, Jeong Hoon Kim, Dae Ki Kim, Choon Ki Ahn

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In this paper, we proposed a new strategy for estimating indoor temperature based on the modified resistance capacitance (R–C) network thermal dynamic model. Using minimum variance finite impulse response (FIR) filter, accurate indoor temperature estimation can be achieved. Our study is clarified by the experimental validation of the proposed indoor temperature estimation method. This experiment scenario environment is composed of a demand response (DR) server and home energy management system (HEMS) in a test bed.

Keywords: energy consumption, resistance-capacitance network model, demand response, finite impulse response filter

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Authors: Gabriel Malgaresi, Sara Borazjani, Hadi Madani, Pavel Bedrikovetsky

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Suspension-Colloidal flow in porous media occurs in numerous engineering fields, such as industrial water treatment, the disposal of industrial wastes into aquifers with the propagation of contaminants and low salinity water injection into petroleum reservoirs. The main effects are particle mobilization and captured by the porous rock, which can cause pore plugging and permeability reduction which is known as formation damage. Various factors such as fluid salinity, pH, temperature, and rock properties affect particle detachment. Formation damage is unfavorable specifically near injection and production wells. One way to control formation damage is pre-treatment of the rock with nanoparticles. Adsorption of nanoparticles on fines and rock surfaces alters zeta-potential of the surfaces and enhances the attachment force between the rock and fine particles. The main objective of this study is to develop a two-stage mathematical model for (1) flow and adsorption of nanoparticles on the rock in the pre-treatment stage and (2) fines migration and permeability reduction during the water production after the pre-treatment. The model accounts for adsorption and desorption of nanoparticles, fines migration, and kinetics of particle capture. The system of equations allows for the exact solution. The non-self-similar wave-interaction problem was solved by the Method of Characteristics. The analytical model is new in two ways: First, it accounts for the specific boundary and initial condition describing the injection of nanoparticle and production from the pre-treated porous media; second, it contains the effect of nanoparticle sorption hysteresis. The derived analytical model contains explicit formulae for the concentration fronts along with pressure drop. The solution is used to determine the optimal injection concentration of nanoparticle to avoid formation damage. The mathematical model was validated via an innovative laboratory program. The laboratory study includes two sets of core-flood experiments: (1) production of water without nanoparticle pre-treatment; (2) pre-treatment of a similar core with nanoparticles followed by water production. Positively-charged Alumina nanoparticles with the average particle size of 100 nm were used for the rock pre-treatment. The core was saturated with the nanoparticles and then flushed with low salinity water; pressure drop across the core and the outlet fine concentration was monitored and used for model validation. The results of the analytical modeling showed a significant reduction in the fine outlet concentration and formation damage. This observation was in great agreement with the results of core-flood data. The exact solution accurately describes fines particle breakthroughs and evaluates the positive effect of nanoparticles in formation damage. We show that the adsorbed concentration of nanoparticle highly affects the permeability of the porous media. For the laboratory case presented, the reduction of permeability after 1 PVI production in the pre-treated scenario is 50% lower than the reference case. The main outcome of this study is to provide a validated mathematical model to evaluate the effect of nanoparticles on formation damage.

Keywords: nano-particles, formation damage, permeability, fines migration

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Authors: M. L. W. P. De Silva, R. A. C. Rabel, N. Smith, L. McIntyre, T. J Parkinson, K. A. N. Wijayawardhane

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Curricular integration is an important concept in medical education for developing students’ ability to create connections between different medical disciplines. Problem-Based Learning (PBL) is one of the vehicles through which such integration can be achieved. During the recent review of the veterinary curriculum at the University of Peradeniya, a series of courses in Integrative Veterinary Science (IVS) were introduced, in which PBL was the primary teaching methodology. The objectives of this study were to evaluate students’ opinions on PBL as a teaching method: it should be noted that, within the context of secondary and tertiary education in Sri Lanka, this would be an entirely novel learning experience for the students. Opinions were sought at the conclusion of IVS sessions where students of semesters 2, 4, 6, and 7 (of an 8-semester program) were exposed to a two, 2-hour PBL-based case scenario. The PBL-based case scenario in semesters 2, 4, and 7 were delivered using material previously developed by an experienced PBL practitioner, whilst material for semester 6 was prepared de novo by a less experienced practitioner. Each student (semesters 2: n=38, 4: n=37, 6: n=55, and 7: n=40) completed a questionnaire which asked whether: (i) the course had improved their critical thinking skills; (ii) the learning environment was sufficiently comfortable to express/share student’s opinion; (iii) there was sufficient facilitator guidance; (iv) the online study environment enhanced learning; and (v) the students were overall satisfied with the PBL approach and IVS concept. Responses were given on a 5-point Likert-scale (strongly agree (SA), agree (A), neutral (N), disagree (D), and strongly disagree (SD)). SA and A responses were summed to provide an overall ‘satisfactory’ response. Results were subjected to frequency-distribution statistical analysis. A total of 88.5% of students gave SA+A scores to their overall satisfaction. The proportion of SA+A scores differed between different semesters, such that 95% of semester 2, 4, and 7 students gave SA+A scores, whereas only 69% of semester 6 students did so for their respective sessions. Overall, 96% of the students gave SA+A scores to the question relating to the improvement of critical thinking skills: semester 6 students’ scores were marginally, but not significantly, lower (91% SA+A) than those in other semesters. The difference of scores between semester 6 and the other semesters may be attributed to the different PBL-material used and/or the different experience levels of the practitioners that developed the study material. The use of PBL as a means of teaching IVS curriculum-integration courses was well-received by the students in terms of their overall satisfaction and their perceptions of improved critical thinking skills. Importantly, this was achieved in the face of a methodology that was entirely novel to the students. Finally, the delivery of the PBL medium was readily mastered by the practitioner to whom it was also a novel methodology.

Keywords: critical thinking skills, integration, problem based learning, veterinary education

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Authors: Alexandra K. Diem, Giles Richardson, Roxana O. Carare, Neil W. Bressloff

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Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common form of dementia and although it has been researched for over 100 years, there is still no cure or preventive medication. Its onset and progression is closely related to the accumulation of the neuronal metabolite Aβ. This raises the question of how metabolites and waste products are eliminated from the brain as the brain does not have a traditional lymphatic system. In recent years the rapid uptake of Aβ into cerebral artery walls and its clearance along those arteries towards the lymph nodes in the neck has been suggested and confirmed in mice studies, which has led to the hypothesis that interstitial fluid (ISF), in the basement membranes in the walls of cerebral arteries, provides the pathways for the lymphatic drainage of Aβ. This mechanism, however, requires a net reverse flow of ISF inside the blood vessel wall compared to the blood flow and the driving forces for such a mechanism remain unknown. While possible driving mechanisms have been studied using mathematical models in the past, a mechanism for net reverse flow has not been discovered yet. Here, we aim to address the question of the driving force of this reverse lymphatic drainage of Aβ (also called perivascular drainage) by using multi-scale numerical and analytical modelling. The numerical simulation software COMSOL Multiphysics 4.4 is used to develop a fluid-structure interaction model of a cerebral artery, which models blood flow and displacements in the artery wall due to blood pressure changes. An analytical model of a layer of basement membrane inside the wall governs the flow of ISF and, therefore, solute drainage based on the pressure changes and wall displacements obtained from the cerebral artery model. The findings suggest that an active role in facilitating a reverse flow is played by the components of the basement membrane and that stiffening of the artery wall during age is a major risk factor for the impairment of brain lymphatics. Additionally, our model supports the hypothesis of a close association between cerebrovascular diseases and the failure of perivascular drainage.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, artery wall mechanics, cerebral blood flow, cerebral lymphatics

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Authors: Sandeep K. Shukla, Roli Jain, Soumitra S. Pande, Archna Pandey

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Sulfur nanoparticles were prepared by different methods with different sizes and shapes. When the sulfur is present as nanoparticles they have many practical applications in our life. This research discusses sulfur nanoparticles synthesis, characterizations and applications. With dandruff being a common everyday problem and the market is loaded with antidandruff shampoos and such skin care products, it is obvious to assume resourceful research into this area would be both objective to present scenario and potentially lucrative. Nanoparticles are frequently in use in some very powerful antimicrobial, antifungal cosmetics nowadays, especially silver. To check its antidandruff activity, experiments have been conducted on Malassezia furfur the causal organism for seborrheaic dermatitis or dandruff, which have been cultured for such study in our lab.

Keywords: CTAB surfactant SEM, sulfur nanoparticles (S-NPs), XRD, polymeric surfactant

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Authors: A. G. Cunha, M. Inácio, M. C. Freitas, C. Antunes, T. Silva, C. Andrade, V. Lopes

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Saltmarshes are essential ecosystems both from an ecological and biological point of view. Furthermore, they constitute an important social niche, providing valuable economic and protection functions. Thus, understanding their rates and patterns of sedimentation is critical for functional management and rehabilitation, especially in an SLR scenario. The Sado estuary is located 40 km south of Lisbon. It is a bar built estuary, separated from the sea by a large sand spit: the Tróia barrier. Caldeira de Tróia is located on the free edge of this barrier, and encompasses a salt marsh with ca. 21,000 m². Sediment cores were collected in the high and low marshes and in the mudflat area of the North bank of Caldeira de Tróia. From the low marsh core, fifteen samples were chosen for ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs determination at University of Geneva. The cores from the high marsh and the mudflat are still being analyzed. A sedimentation rate of 2.96 mm/year was derived from ²¹⁰Pb using the Constant Flux Constant Sedimentation model. The ¹³⁷Cs profile shows a peak in activity (1963) between 15.50 and 18.50 cm, giving a 3.1 mm/year sedimentation rate for the past 53 years. The adopted sea level rise scenario was based on a model built with the initial rate of SLR of 2.1 mm/year in 2000 and an acceleration of 0.08 mm/year². Based on the harmonic analysis of Setubal-Tróia tide gauge of 2005 data, the tide model was estimated and used to build the tidal tables to the period 2000-2016. With these tables, the average mean water levels were determined for the same time span. A digital terrain model was created from LIDAR scanning with 2m horizontal resolution (APA-DGT, 2011) and validated with altimetric data obtained with a DGPS-RTK. The response model calculates a new elevation for each pixel of the DTM for 2050 and 2100 based on the sedimentation rates specific of each environment. At this stage, theoretical values were chosen for the high marsh and the mudflat (respectively, equal and double the low marsh rate – 2.92 mm/year). These values will be rectified once sedimentation rates are determined for the other environments. For both projections, the total surface of the marsh decreases: 2% in 2050 and 61% in 2100. Additionally, the high marsh coverage diminishes significantly, indicating a regression in terms of maturity.

Keywords: ¹³⁷Cs, ²¹⁰Pb, saltmarsh, sea level rise, response model

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Authors: Fiffy Hanisdah Saikim, Bruce Prideaux

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One of the aims of wildlife tourism is to educate visitors about the threats facing wildlife, in general, and the actions needed to protect the environment and maintain biodiversity. Annually, millions of tourists visit natural areas and zoos primarily to view flagship species such as rhinos and elephants. Venues rely on the inherent charisma of these species to increase visitation and anchor conservation efforts. Expected visitor outcomes from the use of flagships include raised levels of awareness and pro-conservation behaviors. However, the role of flagships in wildlife tourism has been criticized for not delivering conservation benefits for species of interest or biodiversity and producing negative site impacts. Furthermore, little is known about how the connection to a species influences conservation behaviors. This paper addresses this gap in knowledge by extending previous work exploring wildlife tourism to include the emotional connection formed with wildlife species and pro-conservation behaviors for individual species and biodiversity. This paper represents a substantial contribution to the field because (a) it incorporates the role of the experience in understanding how tourists connect with a species and how this connection influences pro-conservation behaviors; and (b) is the first attempt to operationalize Conservation Caring as a measure of tourists’ connection with a species. Existing studies have investigated how specific elements, such as interpretation or species’ morphology may influence programmatic goals or awareness. However, awareness is a poor measure of an emotional connection with an animal. Furthermore, there has not been work done to address the holistic nature of the wildlife viewing experience, and its subsequent influence on behaviors. Results based on the structural equation modelling, support the validity of Conservation Caring as a factor; the ability of wildlife tourism to influence Conservation Caring; and that this connection is a strong predictor of conservation awareness behaviors. These findings suggest wildlife tourism can deliver conservation outcomes. The studies in this paper also provide a valuable framework for structuring wildlife tourism experiences to align with flagship related conservation outcomes, and exploring a wider assemblage of species as potential flagships.

Keywords: wildlife tourism, conservation caring, conservation awareness, structural equation modelling

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Authors: Hillary Mwongyera

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The Semliki basin has become a frontier for petroleum exploration in recent years. Exploration efforts have resulted into extensive seismic data acquisition and drilling of three wells namely; Turaco 1, Turaco 2 and Turaco 3. A petrophysical analysis of the Turaco 1 well was carried out to identify two reservoir zones on which AVO modeling was performed. A combination of seismic modeling and rock physics modeling was applied during reservoir characterization and monitoring to determine variations of seismic responses with amplitude characteristics. AVO intercept gradient analysis applied on AVO synthetic CDP gathers classified AVO anomalies associated with both reservoir zones as Class 1 AVO anomalies. Fluid replacement modeling was carried out on both reservoir zones using homogeneous mixing and patchy saturation patterns to determine effects of fluid substitution on rock property interactions. For both homogeneous mixing and saturation patterns, density (ρ) showed an increasing trend with increasing brine substitution while Shear wave velocity (Vs) decreased with increasing brine substitution. A study of compressional wave velocity (Vp) with increasing brine substitution for both homogeneous mixing and patchy saturation gave quite interesting results. During patchy saturation, Vp increased with increasing brine substitution. During homogeneous mixing however, Vp showed a slightly decreasing trend with increasing brine substitution but increased tremendously towards and at full brine saturation. A sensitivity analysis carried out showed that density was a very sensitive rock property responding to brine saturation except at full brine saturation during homogeneous mixing where Vp showed greater sensitivity with brine saturation. Rock physics modeling was performed to predict diagnostics of reservoir quality using an inverse deterministic approach which showed low shale content and a high degree of shale stiffness within reservoir zones.

Keywords: Amplitude Versus Offset (AVO), fluid replacement modelling, reservoir characterization, AVO attributes, rock physics modelling, reservoir monitoring

Procedia PDF Downloads 512