Search results for: flash flood disaster

Authors: Christos N. Tsironis, Loanna Mitaftsi

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Currently, the various forms of tours and touristic visits to destinations associated with the “dark” facets of the past constitute one of the most dynamic fields of touristic initiatives and economic development. This analysis focuses on the potential development of urban dark routes. It aims a) to shed light to touristic, social, and ethical considerations and to describe some of the trends and links combining heritage and dark tourism in post-pandemic societies and b) to explore the possibilities of developing a new and polymorphic form of dark tourism in Thessaloniki, Greece, a distinctive heritage destination. The analysis concludes with a detailed dark route designed to serve a new, polymorphic and sustainable touristic product that describes a dark past with places, sights, and monuments and narrates stories and events stigmatized by death, disaster, and violence throughout the city’s history.

Keywords: dark tourism, dark urban route, local development, polymorphic tourism

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Authors: Annop Jaewisorn

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This study explores the relationship between natural disasters and inequalities -both income and expenditure inequality- at a micro-level of Thailand as the first study of this nature for this country. The analysis uses a unique panel and remote-sensing dataset constructed for the purpose of this research. It contains provincial inequality measures and other economic and social indicators based on the Thailand Household Survey during the period between 1992 and 2019. Meanwhile, the data on natural disasters, which are remote-sensing data, are received from several official geophysical or meteorological databases. Employing a panel fixed effects, the results show that natural disasters significantly reduce household income and expenditure inequality as measured by the Gini index, implying that rich people in Thailand bear a higher cost of natural disasters when compared to poor people. The effect on income inequality is mainly driven by droughts, while the effect on expenditure inequality is mainly driven by flood events. The results are robust across heterogeneity of the samples, lagged effects, outliers, and an alternative inequality measure.

Keywords: inequality, natural disasters, remote-sensing data, Thailand

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Authors: D. Mowla, N. Rasti, P. Keshavarz

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Reduction of fossil fuels sources, increasing of pollution gases emission, and global warming effects increase the demand of renewable fuels. One of the main candidates of alternative fuels is biodiesel. Biodiesel limits greenhouse gas effects due to the closed CO₂ cycle. Biodiesel has more biodegradability, lower combustion emissions such as CO, SO_x, HC, PM and lower toxicity than petro diesel. However, biodiesel has high production cost due to high price of plant oils as raw material. So, the utilization of waste cooking oils (WCOs) as feedstock, due to their low price and disposal problems reduce biodiesel production cost. In this study, production of biodiesel by transesterification of methanol and WCO using modified sodic potassic (SP) clinoptilolite zeolite and sodic potassic calcic (SPC) clinoptilolite zeolite as heterogeneous catalysts have been investigated. These natural clinoptilolite zeolites were modified by KOH solution to increase the site activity. The optimum biodiesel yields for SP clinoptilolite and SPC clinoptilolite were 95.8% and 94.8%, respectively. Produced biodiesel were analyzed and compared with petro diesel and ASTM limits. The properties of produced biodiesel confirm well with ASTM limits. The density, kinematic viscosity, cetane index, flash point, cloud point, and pour point of produced biodiesel were all higher than petro diesel but its acid value was lower than petro diesel. Finally, the reusability and regeneration of catalysts were investigated. The results indicated that the spent zeolites cannot be reused directly for the transesterification, but they can be regenerated easily and can obtain high activity.

Keywords: biodiesel, renewable fuel, transesterification, waste cooking oil

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Authors: F. Esfandyari Darabad, Z. Samadi

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The volume of runoff caused by rainfall in the river basin has enticed the researchers in the fields of the water management resources. In this study, first of the hydrological data such as the rainfall and discharge of the Khiyav river basin of Meshkin city in the northwest of Iran collected and then the process of analyzing and reconstructing has been completed. The soil conservation service (scs) has developed a method for calculating the runoff, in which is based on the curve number specification (CN). This research implemented the following model in the Khiyav river basin of Meshkin city by the GIS techniques and concluded the following fact in which represents the usage of weight model in calculating the curve numbers that provides the possibility for the all efficient factors which is contributing to the runoff creation such as; the geometric characteristics of the basin, the basin soil characteristics, vegetation, geology, climate and human factors to be considered, so an accurate estimation of runoff from precipitation to be achieved as the result. The findings also exposed the accident-prone areas in the output of the Khiyav river basin so it was revealed that the Khiyav river basin embodies a high potential for the flood creation.

Keywords: curve number, khiyav river basin, runoff estimation, SCS

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Dahmardeh Ghaleno, Mohammad Nohtani, Saeedeh Khaledi

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Hydrological models are applied to simulation and prediction floods in watersheds. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous and physically model with daily or hourly time step that explains of precipitation, runoff and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave Equation which depend on the slope, velocity and flow route characteristics. Garmabrood watershed located in Mazandaran province in Iran and passing over coordinates 53° 10´ 55" to 53° 38´ 20" E and 36° 06´ 45" to 36° 25´ 30"N. The area of the catchment is about 1133 km2 and elevations in the catchment range from 213 to 3136 m at the outlet, with average slope of 25.77 %. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 61% and 83.17 % respectively.

Keywords: watershed simulation, WetSpa, runoff, flood prediction

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Authors: Nasir A. Al-Geelani, Zulkurnain Abdul-Malek, M. Afendi M. Piah

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This research paper investigation is carried out in the laboratory on single units of transmission line glass insulator characterized by different thermal images, which aimed to find out the age of the insulators. The tests were carried out on virgin and aged insulators using the thermography scan. Various samples having different periods of aging 20, 15, and 5 years from a 132 kV transmission line which have exhibited a different degree of corrosion. The second group of insulator samples was relatively mild aged insulators, while the third group was lightly aged; finally, the fourth group was the brand new insulators. The results revealed a strong correlation between the aging and the thermal images captured by the infrared camera. This technique can be used to monitor the aging of high voltage insulators as a precaution to avoid disaster.

Keywords: glass insulator, infrared camera, corona diacharge, transmission lines, thermograpy, surface discharge

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Authors: Helena M. Wilhelm, Paulo O. Fernandes, Laís P. Dill, Kethlyn G. Moscon

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The use of vegetable oil (or natural ester) as an insulating fluid in electrical transformers is a trend that aims to contribute to environmental preservation since it is biodegradable and non-toxic. Besides, vegetable oil has high flash and combustion points, being considered a fire safety fluid. However, vegetable oil is usually less stable towards oxidation than mineral oil. Both insulating fluids, mineral and vegetable oils, need to be tested periodically according to specific standards. Oxidation stability can be determined by the induction period measured by conductivity method (Rancimat) by monitoring the effectivity of oil’s antioxidant additives, a methodology already developed for food application and biodiesel but still not standardized for insulating fluids. Besides adequate oxidation stability, fluids must be compatible with transformer's construction materials under normal operating conditions to ensure that damage to the oil and parts of the transformer does not occur. ASTM standard and Brazilian normative differ in parameters evaluated, which reveals the need to regulate tests for each oil type. The aim of this study was to assess oxidation stability and compatibility of vegetable oils to suggest the best way to assure a viable performance of vegetable oil as transformer insulating fluid. The determination of the induction period for several vegetable insulating oils from the local market by using Rancimat was carried out according to BS EN 14112 standard, at different temperatures (110, 120, and 130 °C). Also, the compatibility of vegetable oil was assessed according to ASTM and ABNT NBR standards. The main results showed that the best temperature for use in the Rancimat test is 130 °C, which allows a better observation of conductivity change. The compatibility test results presented differences between vegetable and mineral oil standards that should be taken into account in oil testing since materials compatibility and oxidation stability are essential for equipment reliability.

Keywords: compatibility, Rancimat, natural ester, vegetable oil

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Authors: Zhiqing Zhang, Xiangong Zhou, Zihan Zhou

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Ground fissures can be seen in some cities all over the world. As a special urban geological disaster, ground fissures in Xi'an have caused great harm to infrastructure. Chang'an Road Interchange in Xi'an City is a bridge across ground fissures. The damage to Chang'an Road interchange is the most serious and typical. To study the influence of ground fissures on the bridge, we established a bridge monitoring system. The main monitoring items include elevation monitoring, structural displacement monitoring, etc. The monitoring results show that the typical failure is mainly reflected in the bridge deck damage caused by horizontal tension and vertical dislocation. For the construction of urban interchange spanning ground fissures, the interchange should be divided reasonably, a simple support structure with less restriction should be adopted, and the monitoring of supports should be strengthened to prevent the occurrence of beam falling.

Keywords: bridge monitoring, ground fissures, typical disease, structural displacement

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Authors: Fangwen Ni, Hongpeng Xu

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When disasters occur, it is important to provide temporary shelters to protect victims from their environment and to comfort them with privacy and dignity. However, the commonly used shelters like tents and shanties can not ensure a comfortable condition. Furthermore, the demand for more energy and less pollution has become a major challenge. Focusing on the sustainable of temporary shelters, this study intends to clarify the essential role of temporary shelters before the reconstruction work is done. The paper also identifies the main problems from three aspects including spatial layout, thermal comfort and utilization of passive technology. Moreover, it expounds the passive strategies of ecological design by case study and simulation. It is found that the living condition of shelters can be improved from the perspective of architectural space, ventilation theory and construction techniques. Regardless of being temporary, these shelters are crucial elements in emergency situations and should be taken more seriously.

Keywords: architectural space, construction technique, sustainable strategy, temporary shelter

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Authors: Taira Bano

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Cry, the Peacock is a famous novel by Anita Desai which deals with the psychic tumult of a young and sensitive female protagonist, Maya. The novel deals with the in-depth study of the psyche of Maya who is haunted by a childhood prophecy of a fatal disaster. This persistent obsession of death either for her or her husband within four years of their marriage is the main reason for Maya’s neurosis. The novel is not only concerned with the psychological aspect of Maya but is also a strong plea for the rights of women. The novel consists of both psychological as well as feministic elements. The attitude of Maya, not to submit to the authority of her husband gives perfect description of second wave feminism. Feminism is a movement which deals with the issues of inequality between men and women. Psychoanalysis is the study of the psychology of characters. It depicts how an incident in one’s life shapes the personality of an individual. This paper will deal with the study of the novel Cry, the Peacock from psychoanalytic perspective and will try to trace out the reason for such an extreme step that Maya takes in the end of the novel- crossing all the limits of a traditional submissive wife.

Keywords: psyche, psychological, mental, feminist

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Authors: Mehdi Boukri, Mohammed Naboussi Farsi, Mounir Naili, Omar Amellal, Mohamed Belazougui, Ahmed Mebarki, Nabila Guessoum, Brahim Mezazigh, Mounir Ait-Belkacem, Nacim Yousfi, Mohamed Bouaoud, Ikram Boukal, Aboubakr Fettar, Asma Souki

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The seismic risk to which the urban centres are more and more exposed became a world concern. A co-operation on an international scale is necessary for an exchange of information and experiments for the prevention and the installation of action plans in the countries prone to this phenomenon. For that, the 1990s was designated as 'International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)' by the United Nations, whose interest was to promote the capacity to resist the various natural, industrial and environmental disasters. Within this framework, it was launched in 1996, the RADIUS project (Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas Against Seismic Disaster), whose the main objective is to mitigate seismic risk in developing countries, through the development of a simple and fast methodological and operational approach, allowing to evaluate the vulnerability as well as the socio-economic losses, by probable earthquake scenarios in the exposed urban areas. In this paper, we will present the adaptation and application of this methodology to the Algerian context for the seismic risk evaluation in urban areas potentially exposed to earthquakes. This application consists to perform an earthquake scenario in the urban centre of Constantine city, located at the North-East of Algeria, which will allow the building seismic damage estimation of this city. For that, an inventory of 30706 building units was carried out by the National Earthquake Engineering Research Centre (CGS). These buildings were digitized in a data base which comprises their technical information by using a Geographical Information system (GIS), and then they were classified according to the RADIUS methodology. The study area was subdivided into 228 meshes of 500m on side and Ten (10) sectors of which each one contains a group of meshes. The results of this earthquake scenario highlights that the ratio of likely damage is about 23%. This severe damage results from the high concentration of old buildings and unfavourable soil conditions. This simulation of the probable seismic damage of the building and the GIS damage maps generated provide a predictive evaluation of the damage which can occur by a potential earthquake near to Constantine city. These theoretical forecasts are important for decision makers in order to take the adequate preventive measures and to develop suitable strategies, prevention and emergency management plans to reduce these losses. They can also help to take the adequate emergency measures in the most impacted areas in the early hours and days after an earthquake occurrence.

Keywords: seismic risk, mitigation, RADIUS, urban areas, Algeria, earthquake scenario, Constantine

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Earthquakes pose significant risks to human life and infrastructure, highlighting the importance of effective earthquake mitigation strategies. Traditional earthquake modelling and mitigation efforts have largely focused on the primary fault segments and their slip behaviour. However, earthquakes can exhibit complex rupture dynamics, including out-of-sequence thrust (OOST) events, which occur on secondary or subsidiary faults. This abstract examines the impact of OOST dynamics on earthquake mitigation strategies and their implications for hazard assessment and disaster planning. OOST events challenge conventional seismic hazard assessments by introducing additional fault segments and potential rupture scenarios that were previously unrecognized or underestimated. Consequently, these events may increase the overall seismic hazard in affected regions. The study reviews recent case studies and research findings that illustrate the occurrence and characteristics of OOST events. It explores the factors contributing to OOST dynamics, such as stress interactions between fault segments, fault geometry, and mechanical properties of fault materials. Moreover, it investigates the potential triggers and precursory signals associated with OOST events to enhance early warning systems and emergency response preparedness. The abstract also highlights the significance of incorporating OOST dynamics into seismic hazard assessment methodologies. It discusses the challenges associated with accurately modelling OOST events, including the need for improved understanding of fault interactions, stress transfer mechanisms, and rupture propagation patterns. Additionally, the abstract explores the potential for advanced geophysical techniques, such as high-resolution imaging and seismic monitoring networks, to detect and characterize OOST events. Furthermore, the abstract emphasizes the practical implications of OOST dynamics for earthquake mitigation strategies and urban planning. It addresses the need for revising building codes, land-use regulations, and infrastructure designs to account for the increased seismic hazard associated with OOST events. It also underscores the importance of public awareness campaigns to educate communities about the potential risks and safety measures specific to OOST-induced earthquakes. This sheds light on the impact of out-of-sequence thrust dynamics in earthquake mitigation. By recognizing and understanding OOST events, researchers, engineers, and policymakers can improve hazard assessment methodologies, enhance early warning systems, and implement effective mitigation measures. By integrating knowledge of OOST dynamics into urban planning and infrastructure development, societies can strive for greater resilience in the face of earthquakes, ultimately minimizing the potential for loss of life and infrastructure damage.

Keywords: earthquake mitigation, out-of-sequence thrust, seismic, satellite imagery

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Authors: Khadija Bouzaachane, El Mahdi El Guarmah

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The classification of low-resolution satellite images has been a worthwhile and fertile field that attracts plenty of researchers due to its importance in monitoring geographical areas. It could be used for several purposes such as disaster management, military surveillance, agricultural monitoring. The main objective of this work is to classify efficiently and accurately low-resolution satellite images by using novel technics of deep learning and reinforcement learning. The images include roads, residential areas, industrial areas, rivers, sea lakes, and vegetation. To achieve that goal, we carried out experiments on the sentinel-2 images considering both high accuracy and efficiency classification. Our proposed model achieved a 91% accuracy on the testing dataset besides a good classification for land cover. Focus on the parameter precision; we have obtained 93% for the river, 92% for residential, 97% for residential, 96% for the forest, 87% for annual crop, 84% for herbaceous vegetation, 85% for pasture, 78% highway and 100% for Sea Lake.

Keywords: classification, deep learning, reinforcement learning, satellite imagery

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Authors: Naser Charkhsaz, Ashraf Sadat Mousavi, Navvab Shamspour

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This study aimed to evaluate the role of state education in increasing public awareness through mass media (with emphasis on newspapers and TV) coping with possible earthquake in Tehran. All residents aged 15 to 65 who live in the five regions of Tehran (North, South, East, West and Center) during the plan implementation were selected and studied. The required sample size in each region was calculated based on the Cochran formula (n=380). In order to collect and analyze the data, a questionnaire with reliability (82%) and a one-sample t-test has been used, respectively. The results showed that warnings related to the Tehran earthquake affected people in the pre-contemplation stage, while public education through mass media did not promote public awareness about prevention, preparedness and rehabilitation.

Keywords: media, disaster, knowledge, Iranian Red Crescent society

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Authors: Radmila Hajkova, Jiri Palecek, Hana Malachova, Alena Oulehlova

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Ensuring of continuity of business is the basic strategy of every company. Continuity of organization activities includes comprehensive procedures that help in solving unexpected situations of natural and anthropogenic character (for example flood, blaze, economic situations). Planning of continuity operations is a process that helps identify critical processes and implement plans for the security and recovery of key processes. The aim of this article demonstrates application of system approach to managing business continuity called business continuity management systems in military issues. This article describes the life cycle of business continuity management which is based on the established cycle PDCA (plan-do-check-act). After this is carried out by activities which are making by the University of Defence during activation of forces and means of the Integrated rescue system in case of emergencies - accidents at a nuclear power plant in Czech republic. Activities of various stages of deployment earmarked forces and resources are managed and evaluated by using MCMS application (military continuity management system).

Keywords: business continuity management system, emergency management, military, nuclear safety

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Authors: Ghazaleh Monazami Tehrani, Zhamak Monazami Tehrani, Raziyeh Hadavand

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Optimal site selection for temporary housing is one of the most important issues in crisis management. In this research, district six of Tehran city with high frequency and geographical distribution of earthquakes has been selected as a case study for positioning temporary housing after a probable earthquake. For achieving this goal this study tries to identify and evaluate distribution of location according to some standards such as compatible and incompatible urban land uses with utility of GIS and AHP. The results of this study show the most susceptible parts of this region in the center. According to the maps, north eastern part of Kordestan, Shaheed Gomnam intersection possesses the highest pixels value in terms of areal extent, therefore these places are recommended as an optimum site location for construction of emergency evacuation base.

Keywords: optimal site selection, temporary housing , crisis management, AHP, GIS

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Authors: Ho Young Son, Bu Seog Ju, Woo Young Jung

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This study presents the seismic safety evaluation of weir structure subjected to strong earthquake ground motions, as a flood defense structure in civil engineering structures. The seismic safety analysis procedure was illustrated through development of Finite Element (FE) and InFinite Element (IFE) method in ABAQUS platform. The IFE model was generated by CINPS4, 4-node linear one-way infinite model as a sold continuum infinite element in foundation areas of the weir structure and then nonlinear FE model using friction model for soil-structure interactions was applied in this study. In order to understand the complex behavior of weir structures, nonlinear time history analysis was carried out. Consequently, it was interesting to note that the compressive stress gave more vulnerability to the weir structure, in comparison to the tensile stress, during an earthquake. The stress concentration of the weir structure was shown at the connection area between the weir body and stilling basin area. The stress both tension and compression was reduced in IFE model rather than FE model of weir structures.

Keywords: seismic, numerical analysis, FEM, weir, boundary condition

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Authors: Ali Mohammadi

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One of the concerns that employers and contractors have in creating long tunnels is that when the excavation is completed, the tunnel will be exited in the correct position according to designed, the deviation of the tunnel from its path can have many costs for the employer and the contractor, lack of correct calculations by the surveying engineer or the employer and contractors lack of importance to the surveying team in guiding the tunnel can cause the tunnel to deviate from its path and this deviation becomes a disaster. But employers are able to make the right decisions so that the tunnel is guided with the highest precision if they consider some points. We are investigating two tunnels with lengths of 12 and 18 kilometers that were dug by Tunnel boring machine machines to transfer water, how the contractor’s decision to control the 12 kilometer tunnel caused the most accuracy of one centimeter to the next part of the tunnel will be connected. We will also investigate the reasons for the deviation of axis in the 18 km tunnel about 20 meters. Also we review the calculations of surveyor engineers in both tunnels and what challenges there will be in the calculations and teach how to solve these challenges. Surveying calculations are the most important part in controlling long tunnels.

Keywords: UTM, localization, scale factor, traverse

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Authors: Chris Fersterer, Col Fay, Tobias Danielmeier, Kat Achterberg, Scott Willis

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New Zealand, an island nation, has an extensive coastline peppered with small communities of iconic buildings known as Bachs. Post WWII, these modest buildings were constructed by their owners as retreats and generally were small, low cost, often using recycled material and often they fell below current acceptable building standards. In the latter part of the 20^th century, real estate prices in many of these communities remained low and these areas became permanent residences for people attracted to this affordable lifestyle choice. The Blueskin Resilient Communities Trust (BRCT) is an organisation that recognises the vulnerability of communities in low lying settlements as now being prone to increased flood threat brought about by climate change and sea level rise. Some of the inhabitants of Blueskin Bay, Otago, NZ have already found their properties to be un-insurable because of increased frequency of flood events and property values have slumped accordingly. Territorial authorities also acknowledge this increased risk and have created additional compliance measures for new buildings that are less than 2 m above tidal peaks. Community resilience becomes an additional concern where inhabitants are attracted to a lifestyle associated with a specific location and its people when this lifestyle is unable to be met in a suburban or city context. Traditional models of social housing fail to provide the sense of community connectedness and identity enjoyed by the current residents of Blueskin Bay. BRCT have partnered with the Otago Polytechnic Design School to design a new form of community housing that can react to this environmental change. It is a longitudinal project incorporating participatory approaches as a means of getting people ‘on board’, to understand complex systems and co-develop solutions. In the first period, they are seeking industry support and funding to develop a transportable and fully self-contained housing model that exploits current technologies. BRCT also hope that the building will become an educational tool to highlight climate change issues facing us today. This paper uses the Climate Safe House (CSH) as a case study for education in architectural sustainability through experiential learning offered as part of the Otago Polytechnics Bachelor of Design. Students engage with the project with research methodologies, including site surveys, resident interviews, data sourced from government agencies and physical modelling. The process involves collaboration across design disciplines including product and interior design but also includes connections with industry, both within the education institution and stakeholder industries introduced through BRCT. This project offers a rich learning environment where students become engaged through project based learning within a community of practice, including architecture, construction, energy and other related fields. The design outcomes are expressed in a series of public exhibitions and forums where community input is sought in a truly participatory process.

Keywords: community resilience, problem based learning, project based learning, case study

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Authors: W. Swiderski

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Composite materials are one answer to the growing demand for materials with better parameters of construction and exploitation. Composite materials also permit conscious shaping of desirable properties to increase the extent of reach in the case of metals, ceramics or polymers. In recent years, composite materials have been used widely in aerospace, energy, transportation, medicine, etc. Fiber-reinforced composites including carbon fiber, glass fiber and aramid fiber have become a major structural material. The typical defect during manufacture and operation is delamination damage of layered composites. When delamination damage of the composites spreads, it may lead to a composite fracture. One of the many methods used in non-destructive testing of composites is active infrared thermography. In active thermography, it is necessary to deliver energy to the examined sample in order to obtain significant temperature differences indicating the presence of subsurface anomalies. To detect possible defects in composite materials, different methods of thermal stimulation can be applied to the tested material, these include heating lamps, lasers, eddy currents, microwaves or ultrasounds. The use of a suitable source of thermal stimulation on the test material can have a decisive influence on the detection or failure to detect defects. Samples of multilayer structure carbon composites were prepared with deliberately introduced defects for comparative purposes. Very thin defects of different sizes and shapes made of Teflon or copper having a thickness of 0.1 mm were screened. Non-destructive testing was carried out using the following sources of thermal stimulation, heating lamp, flash lamp, ultrasound and eddy currents. The results are reported in the paper.

Keywords: Non-destructive testing, IR thermography, composite material, thermal stimulation

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Authors: Bright Annang Baah

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Evaluating public perceptions of climate change risk and the elements that impact them has been shown to be critical in developing support for climate change action. Previous research has found a variety of elements, including the experience of extreme weather events, that impact public perceptions and worries about climate change. However, little is known about the public's perception of climate change risks and the variables that influence them in developing countries. Using a household survey, this study attempted to evaluate respondents' risk perceptions of climate change, as well as the impact of flooding experience on such beliefs. The findings demonstrate that flood victims have a greater risk perception and are more concerned about climate change than non-victims. Concerns regarding the effects of climate change, on the other hand, were found to be the lowest when compared to other pressing challenges confronting the country. This study's findings contribute to the understanding of climate change risk perception and the impact of extreme weather events from the perspective of a developing nation.

Keywords: climate change risk perception, harsh weather, perceived concern, Accra, Ghana

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Authors: Sneha Thakur, Sanjeev Karmakar

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This paper proposed hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) – Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) model for groundwater level prediction. The evaluation of the performance is realized using the parameters: root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). Ground water level forecasting will be very effective for planning water harvesting. Proper calculation of water level forecasting can overcome the problem of drought and flood to some extent. The objective of this work is to develop a ground water level forecasting model using deep learning technique integrated with optimization technique PSO by applying 29 years data of Chhattisgarh state, In-dia. It is important to find the precise forecasting in case of ground water level so that various water resource planning and water harvesting can be managed effectively.

Keywords: long short-term memory, particle swarm optimization, prediction, deep learning, groundwater level

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Authors: Sudikshya Bhandari, Jonathan K. London

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The earthquake of April 2015 was one of the biggest disasters in the history of Nepal. The epicenter was located near Barpak, north of the Gorkha district. Before the disaster, this settlement was a compact and homogeneous settlement manifesting its uniqueness through the social and cultural activities, and a distinct vernacular architecture. Narrow alleys with stone paved streets, buildings with slate roofs, and common spaces between the houses made this settlement socially, culturally, and environmentally cohesive. With the presence of micro hydro power plants, local economic activities enabled the local community to exist and thrive. Agriculture and animal rearing are the sources of livelihood for the majority of families, along with the booming homestays (where local people welcome guests to their home, as a business) and local shops. Most of these activities are difficult to find as the houses have been destroyed with the earthquake and the process of reconstruction has been transforming the outlook of the settlement. This study characterized the drastic transformation in Barpak post-earthquake, and analyzed the consequences of the reconstruction process. In addition, it contributes to comprehending a broader representation about unsustainability created by the lack of contextual post-disaster development. Since the research is based in a specific area, a case study approach was used. Sample houses were selected on the basis of ethnicity and house typology. Mixed methods such as key informant and semi structured interviews, focus groups, observations and photographs are used for the collection of data. The research focus is predominantly on the physical change of the house typology from vernacular to externally adopted designs. This transformation of the house entails socio-cultural changes such as social fragmentation with differences among the rich and the poor and decreases in the social connectivity within families and neighborhood. Families have found that new houses require more maintenance and resources that have increased their economic expenses. The study also found that the reconstructed houses are not thermally comfortable in the cold climate of Barpak, leading to the increased use of different sources of heating like electric heaters and more firewood. Lack of storage spaces for crops and livestock have discouraged them to pursue traditional means of livelihood and depend more on buying food from stores, ultimately making it less economical for most of the families. The transformation of space leading to the economic, social and cultural changes demonstrates the unsustainability of Barpak. Conclusions from the study suggest place based and inclusive planning and policy formations that include locals as partners, identifying the possible ways to minimize the impact and implement these recommendations into the future policy and planning scenarios.

Keywords: earthquake, Nepal, reconstruction, settlement, transformation

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Authors: Hsin-Hung Lin, Janet Chang, Te-Yi Chang, You-Sheng Huang

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The natural and men-made disasters have become huge challenges for tourism destinations as well as emphasizing the fragility of the industry. Hot springs, among all destinations, are prone to disasters due to their dependence on natural resources and locations. After the COVID-19 outbreak, hot spring destinations have experienced not only the loss of businesses but also the psychological trauma. However, evidence has also shown that the impacts may not necessarily reduce the resilience for people but may be converted into posttraumatic growth. In Taiwan, a large proportion of hot springs are located in rural or indigenous areas. As a result, hot spring resources are associated with community cohesion for local residents. Yet prior research on hot spring destinations has mainly focused on visitors, whereas residents have been overlooked. More specifically, the relationship between hot springs resources and resident resilience in the face of the COVID-19 impacts remains unclear. To fulfill this knowledge gap, this paper aims to explore the COVID-19 impacts on residents’ hot spring experiences as well as individual and community resilience from the perspective of posttraumatic growth. A total of 315 residents of 13 hot spring destinations that are most popular in Taiwan were recruited. Online questionnaires were distributed over travel forums and social networks after the COVID-19. This paper subsequently used Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling for data analysis as the technique offers significant advantages in addressing nonnormal data and small sample sizes. A preliminary test was conducted, and the results showed acceptable internal consistency and no serious common method variance. The path analysis demonstrated that the COVID-19 impacts strengthened residents’ perceptions of hot spring resources and experiences, implying that the pandemic had propelled the residents to visit hot springs for the healing benefits. In addition, the COVID-19 impacts significantly enhanced residents’ individual and community resilience, which indicates that the residents at hot springs are more resilient thanks to their awareness of external risks. Thirdly, residents’ individual resilience was positively associated with hot spring experiences, while community resilience was not affected by hot spring experiences. Such findings may suggest that hot spring experiences are more related to individual-level experiences and, consequently, have insignificant influence on community resilience. Finally, individual resilience was proved to be the most relevant factor that help foster community resilience. To conclude, the authorities may consider exploiting the hot spring resources so as to increase individual resilience for local residents. Such implications can be used as a reference for other post-disaster tourist destinations as well. As for future research, longitudinal studies with qualitative methods are suggested to better understand how the hot spring experiences have changed individuals and communities over the long term. It should be noted that the main subjects of this paper were focused on the hot spring communities in Taiwan. Therefore, the results cannot be generalized for all types of tourism destinations. That is, more diverse tourism destinations may be investigated to provide a broader perspective of post-disaster recovery.

Keywords: community resilience, hot spring destinations, individual resilience, posttraumatic growth

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Authors: Hsin-Hung Lin, Janet Chang, Te-Yi Chang, You-Sheng Huang

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The natural and men-made disasters have become huge challenges for tourism destinations as well as emphasizing the fragility of the industry. Hot springs, among all destinations, are prone to disasters due to their dependence on natural resources and locations. After the COVID-19 outbreak, hot spring destinations have experienced not only the loss of businesses but also the psychological trauma. However, evidence has also shown that the impacts may not necessarily reduce the resilience for people but may be converted into posttraumatic growth. In Taiwan, a large proportion of hot springs are located in rural or indigenous areas. As a result, hot spring resources are associated with community cohesion for local residents. Yet prior research on hot spring destinations has mainly focused on visitors, whereas residents have been overlooked. More specifically, the relationship between hot springs resources and resident resilience in the face of the COVID-19 impacts remains unclear. To fulfill this knowledge gap, this paper aims to explore the COVID-19 impacts on residents’ hot spring experiences as well as individual and community resilience from the perspective of posttraumatic growth. A total of 315 residents of 13 hot spring destinations that are most popular in Taiwan were recruited. Online questionnaires were distributed over travel forums and social networks after the COVID-19. This paper subsequently used Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling for data analysis as the technique offers significant advantages in addressing nonnormal data and small sample sizes. A preliminary test was conducted, and the results showed acceptable internal consistency and no serious common method variance. The path analysis demonstrated that the COVID-19 impacts strengthened residents’ perceptions of hot spring resources and experiences, implying that the pandemic had propelled the residents to visit hot springs for the healing benefits. In addition, the COVID-19 impacts significantly enhanced residents’ individual and community resilience, which indicates that the residents at hot springs are more resilient thanks to their awareness of external risks. Thirdly, residents’ individual resilience was positively associated with hot spring experiences, while community resilience was not affected by hot spring experiences. Such findings may suggest that hot spring experiences are more related to individual-level experiences and, consequently, have insignificant influence on community resilience. Finally, individual resilience was proved to be the most relevant factor that help foster community resilience. To conclude, the authorities may consider exploiting the hot spring resources so as to increase individual resilience for local residents. Such implications can be used as a reference for other post-disaster tourist destinations as well.As for future research, longitudinal studies with qualitative methods are suggested to better understand how the hot spring experiences have changed individuals and communities over the long term. It should be noted that the main subjects of this paper were focused on the hot spring communities in Taiwan. Therefore, the results cannot be generalized for all types of tourism destinations. That is, more diverse tourism destinations may be investigated to provide a broader perspective of post-disaster recovery.

Keywords: community resilience, hot spring destinations, individual resilience, posttraumatic growth (PTG)

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Authors: Viktor Novikov, Yuri Ruzhin

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The studies completed to-date on a relation of the Earth's seismicity and solar processes provide the fuzzy and contradictory results. For verification of an idea that solar flares can trigger earthquakes, we have analyzed a case of a powerful surge of solar flash activity early in September 2017 during approaching the minimum of 24th solar cycle was accompanied by significant disturbances of space weather. On September 6, 2017, a group of sunspots AR2673 generated a large solar flare of X9.3 class, the strongest flare over the past twelve years. Its explosion produced a coronal mass ejection partially directed towards the Earth. We carried out a statistical analysis of the catalogs of earthquakes USGS and EMSC for determination of the effect of solar flares on global seismic activity. New evidence of earthquake triggering due to the Sun-Earth interaction has been demonstrated by simple comparison of behavior of Earth's seismicity before and after the strong solar flare. The global number of earthquakes with magnitude of 2.5 to 5.5 within 11 days after the solar flare has increased by 30 to 100%. A possibility of electric/electromagnetic triggering of earthquake due to space weather disturbances is supported by results of field and laboratory studies, where the earthquakes (both natural and laboratory) were initiated by injection of electrical current into the Earth crust. For the specific case of artificial electric earthquake triggering the current density at a depth of earthquake, sources are comparable with estimations of a density of telluric currents induced by variation of space weather conditions due to solar flares. Acknowledgment: The work was supported by RFBR grant No. 18-05-00255.

Keywords: solar flare, earthquake activity, earthquake triggering, solar-terrestrial relations

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Authors: Daniel Y. Abebe, Sijeong Jeong, Jaehyouk Choi

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The use of eccentrically braced frame (EBF) is increasing day by day as EBF possesses high elastic stiffness, stable inelastic response under cyclic lateral loading, and excellent ductility and energy dissipation capacity. The ductility and energy dissipation capacity of EBF depends on the active link beams. Recently, there are two types EBFs; these are conventional EBFs and EBFs with replaceable links. The conventional EBF has a disadvantage during maintenance in post-earthquake. The concept of removable active link beam in EBF is developed to overcome the limitation of the conventional EBF in post-earthquake. In this study, a replaceable link with reduced web section is introduced and design equations are suggested. In addition, nonlinear finite element analysis was conducted in order to evaluate the proposed links.

Keywords: EBFs, replaceable link, earthquake disaster, reduced section

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Authors: Ram Bikram Thapa, Ganesh Lama

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The Micro Hydro is one of the successful technology in Rural Nepal. Kavre is one of the pioneer district of sustainability of Micro Hydro Projects. A total of 30 Micro Hydro projects have been constructed with producing 700 KW of energy in northern side of the Kavre district. This study shows that 67% of projects have been affected by devastating earthquake in April and May, 2015. Out of them 23% are completely damaged. Most of the structures are failure like Penstock 71%, forebay 21%, powerhouse 7% have been completely damaged and 91% Canal & 44% Intake structures have been partially damaged by the earthquake. This paper empathizes that the engineering design is the vital component for sustainability of Micro Hydro Projects. This paper recommended that technicians should be considered the safety factor of earthquake and provision of disaster recovery fund during design of Micro Hydro Projects.

Keywords: micro hydro, earthquake, structural failure, sustainability

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Authors: Shailendra M. Pradhan, Upendra M. Pradhan

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Disasters are perennial features of human civilization. The recurring earthquakes, floods, cyclones, among others, that result in massive loss of lives and devastation, is a grim reminder of the fact that, despite all our success stories of development, and progress in science and technology, human society is perennially at risk to disasters. The apparent threat of climate change and global warming only severe our disaster risks. Darjeeling hills, situated along Eastern Himalayan region of India, and famous for its three Ts – tea, tourism and toy-train – is also equally notorious for its disasters. The recurring landslides and earthquakes, the cyclone Aila, and the Ambootia landslides, considered as the largest landslide in Asia, are strong evidence of the vulnerability of Darjeeling hills to natural disasters. Given its geographical location along the Hindu-Kush Himalayas, the region is marked by rugged topography, geo-physically unstable structure, high-seismicity, and fragile landscape, making it prone to disasters of different kinds and magnitudes. Most of the studies on disasters in Darjeeling hills are, however, scientific and geographical in orientation that focuses on the underlying geological and physical processes to the neglect of social and political conditions. This has created a tendency among the researchers and policy-makers to endorse and promote a particular type of discourse that does not consider the social and political aspects of disasters in Darjeeling hills. Disaster, this paper argues, is a complex phenomenon, and a result of diverse factors, both physical and human. The hazards caused by the physical and geological agents, and the vulnerabilities produced and rooted in political, economic, social and cultural structures of a society, together result in disasters. In this sense, disasters are as much a result of political and economic conditions as it is of physical environment. The human aspect of disasters, therefore, compels us to address intricating social and political challenges that ultimately determine our resilience and vulnerability to disasters. Set within the above milieu, the aims of the paper are twofold: a) to provide a political and sociological account of disasters in Darjeeling hills; and, b) to identify and address the root causes of its vulnerabilities to disasters. In situating disasters in Darjeeling Hills, the paper adopts the Pressure and Release Model (PAR) that provides a theoretical insight into the study of social and political aspects of disasters, and to examine myriads of other related issues therein. The PAR model conceptualises risk as a complex combination of vulnerabilities, on the one hand, and hazards, on the other. Disasters, within the PAR framework, occur when hazards interact with vulnerabilities. The root causes of vulnerability, in turn, could be traced to social and political structures such as legal definitions of rights, gender relations, and other ideological structures and processes. In this way, the PAR model helps the present study to identify and unpack the root causes of vulnerabilities and disasters in Darjeeling hills that have largely remained neglected in dominant discourses, thereby providing a more nuanced and sociologically sensitive understanding of disasters.

Keywords: Darjeeling, disasters, PAR, vulnerabilities

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Authors: Cai J. T. Ladd, Mollie F. Duggan-Edwards, Tjeerd J. Bouma, Jordi F. Pages, Martin W. Skov

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Salt marshes are valued for their role in coastal flood protection, carbon storage, and for supporting biodiverse ecosystems. As a biogeomorphic landscape, marshes evolve through the complex interactions between sea level rise, sediment supply and wave/current forcing, as well as and socio-economic factors. Climate change and direct human modification could lead to a global decline marsh extent if left unchecked. Whilst the processes of saltmarsh erosion and expansion are well understood, empirical evidence on the key drivers of long-term lateral marsh dynamics is lacking. In a GIS, saltmarsh areal extent in 25 estuaries across Great Britain was calculated from historical maps and aerial photographs, at intervals of approximately 30 years between 1846 and 2016. Data on the key perceived drivers of lateral marsh change (namely sea level rise rates, suspended sediment concentration, bedload sediment flux rates, and frequency of both river flood and storm events) were collated from national monitoring centres. Continuous datasets did not extend beyond 1970, therefore predictor variables that best explained rate change of marsh extent between 1970 and 2016 was calculated using a Partial Least Squares Regression model. Information about the spread of Spartina anglica (an invasive marsh plant responsible for marsh expansion around the globe) and coastal engineering works that may have impacted on marsh extent, were also recorded from historical documents and their impacts assessed on long-term, large-scale marsh extent change. Results showed that salt marshes in the northern regions of Great Britain expanded an average of 2.0 ha/yr, whilst marshes in the south eroded an average of -5.3 ha/yr. Spartina invasion and coastal engineering works could not explain these trends since a trend of either expansion or erosion preceded these events. Results from the Partial Least Squares Regression model indicated that the rate of relative sea level rise (RSLR) and availability of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) best explained the patterns of marsh change. RSLR increased from 1.6 to 2.8 mm/yr, as SSC decreased from 404.2 to 78.56 mg/l along the north-to-south gradient of Great Britain, resulting in the shift from marsh expansion to erosion. Regional differences in RSLR and SSC are due to isostatic rebound since deglaciation, and tidal amplitudes respectively. Marshes exposed to low RSLR and high SSC likely leads to sediment accumulation at the coast suitable for colonisation by marsh plants and thus lateral expansion. In contrast, high RSLR with are likely not offset deposition under low SSC, thus average water depth at the marsh edge increases, allowing larger wind-waves to trigger marsh erosion. Current global declines in sediment flux to the coast are likely to diminish the resilience of salt marshes to RSLR. Monitoring and managing suspended sediment supply is not common-place, but may be critical to mitigating coastal impacts from climate change.

Keywords: lateral saltmarsh dynamics, sea level rise, sediment supply, wave forcing

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