Search results for: default probability

Authors: Javad Sadoghi Yazdi, Robb Eric S. Moss

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This paper utilizes a probabilistic liquefaction triggering method for modeling post-liquefaction ground deformation. This cone penetration test CPT-based liquefaction triggering is employed to estimate the factor of safety against liquefaction (FSL) and compute the maximum cyclic shear strain (γmax). The study identifies a maximum PL value of 90% across various relative densities, which challenges the decrease from 90% to 70% as relative density decreases. It reveals that PL ranges from 5% to 50% for volumetric strain (εvol) less than 1%, while for εvol values between 1% and 3.2%, PL spans from 50% to 90%. The application of the CPT-based simplified liquefaction triggering procedures has been employed in previous researches to estimate liquefaction ground-failure indices, such as the Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI) and Liquefaction Severity Number (LSN). However, several studies have been conducted to highlight the variability in liquefaction probability calculations, suggesting a more accurate depiction of liquefaction likelihood. Consequently, the utilization of these simplified methods may not offer practical efficiency. This paper further investigates the efficacy of various established liquefaction vulnerability parameters, including LPI and LSN, in explaining the observed liquefaction-induced damage within residential zones of Christchurch, New Zealand using results from CPT database.

Keywords: cone penetration test (CPT), liquefaction, postliquefaction, ground failure

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Authors: Pranee Tridhoskul

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This research paper is aimed to examine a relationship between the service marketing mix and customers’ frequency of use of service at Mercedes Benz Auto Repair Centres under Thonburi Group, Thailand. Based on 2,267 customers who used the service of Thonburi Group’s Auto Repair Centres as the population, the sampling of this research was a total of 340 samples, by use of Probability Sampling Technique. Systematic Random Sampling was applied by use of questionnaire in collecting the data at Thonburi Group’s Auto Repair Centres. Mean and Pearson’s basic statistical correlations were utilized in analyzing the data. The study discovered a medium level of customers’ perception towards product and service of Thonburi Group’s Auto Repair Centres, price, place or distribution channel and promotion. People who provided service were perceived also at a medium level, whereas the physical evidence and service process were perceived at a high level. Furthermore, there appeared a correlation between the physical evidence and service process, and customers’ frequency of use of automobile service per year.

Keywords: service marketing mix, behavior, Mercedes Auto Service Centre, frequency of use

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Authors: Z. N. Salim, R. T. Lebese, M. S. Maputle

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Background: The international community has been concerned about population growth for more than a century. Teenagers in sub-Saharan Africa continue to be at high risk of HIV infection, and this is exacerbated by poverty, whereby many teenagers in Africa come from disadvantaged families/background, which leads them to engage in sexual activities at an early age for survival hence leading to increased rate of teenage pregnancy. Purpose: The study sought to explore, describe and to identify the factors that lead to teenage pregnancy in the selected villages in Mopani District. Design: The study was conducted using a qualitative, explorative, descriptive and contextual approach. A non-probability purposive sampling approach was used. Researcher collected the data with the assistance of research assistant. Participants were interviewed and information was captured on a tape recorder and analysed using open coding and thereafter collected into main themes, themes and sub-themes. The researcher conducted four focus groups, Participants aged between 10-19 years of age. Results: The finding of the study revealed that there are several factors that is contributing to teenagers falling pregnant. Personal, intuitional, and cultural were identified to be the factors leading to teenage pregnancy.

Keywords: factors, leading, pregnancy, teenage

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Authors: Zal U’yun Wan Mahmood, Norfaizal Mohamed, Nita Salina Abu Bakar, Yii Mei Wo, Abdul Kadir Ishak, Mohamad Noh Sawon, Mohd Tarmizi Ishak, Khairul Nizam Razali

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The study of thorium radiotracer bioaccumulation in the whole body tropical freshwater fish (Anabas testudeneus; climb pearch) was performed. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of different Th-232 activity concentration andradiological dose in Anabas testudeneus under the laboratory bioaccumulation condition. Anabas testudeneus adults were exposed to different waterborne Th-232 levels: 0 BqL-1 (control), 50 BqL-1, 100 BqL-1,150 BqL-1and 200 BqL-1for 30 days. Radionuclide concentration ratios between the whole body levels and water levels were calculated and; total dose rates and risk quotients using ERICA Assessment Tool were also estimated. The results showed the increase of waterborne Th-232 concentration corresponded to a progressive decrease of Th concentration ratio. Meanwhile, the total dose rate (internal and external) in the whole body of Anabas testudeneus less than the ERICA dose rate screening value of 10 µGyh-1 and the risk quotient less than one. Thus, the findings can be concluded that the radiological dose of Th-232 to Anabas testudeneus is a very low probability and the situation may be considered to be of negligible radiological concern.

Keywords: Anabas testudeneus, bioaccumulation, radiological dose, Th-232

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Authors: Amit Kumar Bardhan, Barnali Nag, Chandra Sekhar Mishra

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Microfinance is considered as one of the key drivers of financial inclusion and pro-poor financial growth. Microfinance in India became popular through Self Help Group (SHG) movement initiated by NABARD. In terms of outreach and loan portfolio, SHG Bank Linkage programme (SHG-BLP) has emerged as the largest microfinance initiative in the world. The success of financial inclusion lies in the successful implementation of SHG-BLP. SHGs are generally promoted by social welfare organisations like NGOs, welfare societies, government agencies, Co-operatives etc. and even banks are also involved in SHG formation. Thus, the pro-poor implementation of the scheme largely depends on the credibility of the SHG Promoting Institutions (SHPIs). The rural poor lack education, skills and financial literacy and hence need continuous support and proper training right from planning to implementation. In this study, we have made an attempt to inspect the reasons behind low penetration of SHG financing to the poorest of the poor both from demand and supply side perspective. Banks, SHPIs, and SHGs are three key essential stakeholders in SHG-BLP programmes. All of them have a vital role in programme implementation. The objective of this paper is to find out the drivers and hurdles in the path of financial inclusion through SHG-BLP and the role of SHPIs in reaching out to the ultra poor. We try to address questions like 'what are the challenges faced by SHPIs in targeting the poor?' and, 'what are factors behind the low credit linkage of SHGs?' Our work is based on a qualitative study of SHG programmes in semi-urban towns in the states of West Bengal and Odisha in India. Data are collected through unstructured questionnaire and in-depth interview from the members of SHGs, SHPIs and designated banks. The study provides some valuable insights about the programme and a comprehensive view of problems and challenges faced by SGH, SHPIs, and banks. On the basis of our understanding from the survey, some findings and policy recommendations that seem relevant are: increasing level of non-performing assets (NPA) of commercial banks and wilful default in expectation of loan waiver and subsidy are the prime reasons behind low rate of credit linkage of SHGs. Regular changes in SHG schemes and no incentive for after linkage follow up results in dysfunctional SHGs. Government schemes are mostly focused on creation of SHG and less on livelihood promotion. As a result, in spite of increasing (YoY) trend of number of SHGs promoted, there is no real impact on welfare growth. Government and other SHPIs should focus on resource based SHG promotion rather only increasing the number of SHGs.

Keywords: financial inclusion, inclusive growth, microfinance, Self-Help Group (SHG), Self-Help Group Promoting Institution (SHPI)

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Authors: Sopheak Sorn, Kwok Yip Szeto

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Reliability is one of the important measures of how well the system meets its design objective, and mathematically is the probability that a complex system will perform satisfactorily. When the system is described by a network of N components (nodes) and their L connection (links), the reliability of the system becomes a network design problem that is an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem. In this paper, we address the network design problem for a random point set’s pattern in two dimensions. We make use of a Voronoi construction with each cell containing exactly one point in the point pattern and compute the reliability of the Voronoi’s dual, i.e. the Delaunay graph. We further investigate the communicability of the Delaunay network. We find that there is a positive correlation and a negative correlation between the homogeneity of a Delaunay's degree distribution with its reliability and its communicability respectively. Based on the correlations, we alter the communicability and the reliability by performing random edge flips, which preserve the number of links and nodes in the network but can increase the communicability in a Delaunay network at the cost of its reliability. This transformation is later used to optimize a Delaunay network with the optimum geometric mean between communicability and reliability. We also discuss the importance of the edge flips in the evolution of real soap froth in two dimensions.

Keywords: Communicability, Delaunay triangulation, Edge Flip, Reliability, Two dimensional network, Voronio

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Authors: Deepshikha Shukla, C. H. Solanki, Mayank K. Desai

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Amongst all the natural hazards, earthquakes have the potential for causing the greatest damages. Since the earthquake forces are random in nature and unpredictable, the quantification of the hazards becomes important in order to assess the hazards. The time and place of a future earthquake are both uncertain. Since earthquakes can neither be prevented nor be predicted, engineers have to design and construct in such a way, that the damage to life and property are minimized. Seismic hazard analysis plays an important role in earthquake design structures by providing a rational value of input parameter. In this paper, both mathematical, as well as computational methods adopted by researchers globally in the past five years, will be discussed. Some mathematical approaches involving the concepts of Poisson’s ratio, Convex Set Theory, Empirical Green’s Function, Bayesian probability estimation applied for seismic hazard and FOSM (first-order second-moment) algorithm methods will be discussed. Computational approaches and numerical model SSIFiBo developed in MATLAB to study dynamic soil-structure interaction problem is discussed in this paper. The GIS-based tool will also be discussed which is predominantly used in the assessment of seismic hazards.

Keywords: computational methods, MATLAB, seismic hazard, seismic measurements

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Authors: Pui Hong Chung, Cyrus Leung, Jun Li, Kin On Kwok, Ek Yeoh

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Introduction: Studies for TB control in intermediate tuberculosis burden countries (IBCs) comprise a relatively small proportion in TB control literature, as compared to the effort put in high and low burden counterparts. It currently lacks of consensus in the optimal weapons and strategies we can use to combat TB in IBCs; guidelines of TB control are inadequate and thus posing a great obstacle in eliminating TB in these countries. To fill-in the research and services gap, we need to summarize the findings of the effort in this regard and to seek consensus in terms of policy making for TB control, we have devised a series of scoping and Delphi studies for these purposes. Method: The scoping and Delphi studies are conducted in parallel to feed information for each other. Before the Delphi iterations, we have invited three local experts in TB control in Hong Kong to participate in the pre-assessment round of the Delphi study to comments on the validity, relevance, and clarity of the Delphi questionnaire. Result: Two scoping studies, regarding LTBI control in health care workers in IBCs and TB control in elderly of IBCs respectively, have been conducted. The result of these two studies is used as the foundation for developing the Delphi questionnaire, which tapped on seven areas of question, namely: characteristics of IBCs, adequacy of research and services in LTBI control in IBCs, importance and feasibility of interventions for TB control and prevention in hospital, screening and treatment of LTBI in community, reasons of refusal to/ default from LTBI treatment, medical adherence of LTBI treatment, and importance and feasibility of interventions for TB control and prevention in elderly in IBCs. The local experts also commented on the two scoping studies conducted, thus act as the sixth phase of expert consultation in Arksey and O’Malley framework of scoping studies, to either nourish the scope and strategies used in these studies or to supplement ideas for further scoping or systematic review studies. In the subsequent stage, an international expert panel, comprised of 15 to 20 experts from IBCs in Western Pacific Region, will be recruited to join the two-round anonymous Delphi iterations. Four categories of TB control experts, namely clinicians, policy makers, microbiologists/ laboratory personnel, and public health clinicians will be our target groups. A consensus level of 80% is used to determine the achievement of consensus on particular issues. Key messages: 1. Scoping review and Delphi method are useful to identify gaps and then achieve consensus in research. 2. Lots of resources are put in the high burden countries now. However, the usually neglected intermediate-burden countries with TB is an indispensable part for achieving the ambitious WHO End TB 2035 target.

Keywords: dephi questionnaire, tuberculosis, WHO, latent TB infection

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Authors: Tatsuya Otoshi, Masayuki Murata

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With the development and diversification of applications on the Internet, applications that require high responsiveness, such as video streaming, are becoming mainstream. Application responsiveness is not only a matter of communication delay but also a matter of time required to grasp changes in network conditions. The tradeoff between accuracy and measurement time is a challenge in network control. We people make countless decisions all the time, and our decisions seem to resolve tradeoffs between time and accuracy. When making decisions, people are known to make appropriate choices based on relatively small samples. Although there have been various studies on models of human decision-making, a model that integrates various cognitive biases, called ”quantum decision-making,” has recently attracted much attention. However, the modeling of small samples has not been examined much so far. In this paper, we extend the model of quantum decision-making to model decision-making with a small sample. In the proposed model, the state is updated by value-based probability amplitude amplification. By analytically obtaining a lower bound on the number of samples required for decision-making, we show that decision-making with a small number of samples is feasible.

Keywords: quantum decision making, small sample, MPEG-DASH, Grover's algorithm

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Authors: Juan F. Muñoz-Rosas, Rosa M. García-Fernández, Encarnación Álvarez-Verdejo, Pablo J. Moya-Fernández

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Poverty measurement is a very important topic in many studies in social sciences. One of the most important indicators when measuring poverty is the low income proportion. This indicator gives the proportion of people of a population classified as poor. This indicator is generally unknown, and for this reason, it is estimated by using survey data, which are obtained by official surveys carried out by many statistical agencies such as Eurostat. The main feature of the mentioned survey data is the fact that they contain several variables. The variable used to estimate the low income proportion is called as the variable of interest. The survey data may contain several additional variables, also named as the auxiliary variables, related to the variable of interest, and if this is the situation, they could be used to improve the estimation of the low income proportion. In this paper, we use Monte Carlo simulation studies to analyze numerically the performance of estimators based on several auxiliary variables. In this simulation study, we considered real data sets obtained from the 2011 European Union Survey on Income and Living Condition. Results derived from this study indicate that the estimators based on auxiliary variables are more accurate than the naive estimator.

Keywords: inclusion probability, poverty, poverty line, survey sampling

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Authors: Yongjian Du, Jinhua Sun, Kim M. Liew, Huahua Xiao

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Optimal allocation of emergency resources before a disaster is of great importance for emergency response. In reality, the pre-protection for a single critical node where accidents may occur is common. In this study, a model is developed to determine location and inventory decisions of multiple emergency resources among a set of candidate stations to minimize the total cost based on the constraints of budgetary and capacity. The total cost includes the economic accident loss which is accorded with probability distribution of time and the warehousing cost of resources which is increasing over time. A ratio is set to measure the degree of a storage station only serving the target node that becomes larger with the decrease of the distance between them. For the application of linear program, it is assumed that the length of travel time to the accident scene of emergency resources has a linear relationship with the economic accident loss. A computational experiment is conducted to illustrate how the proposed model works, and the results indicate its effectiveness and practicability.

Keywords: emergency response, integer linear program, multiple emergency resources, pre-allocation decisions, single potential accident node

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Authors: Ghania Zerari, Abderrezak Guessoum, Rachid Beguenane

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This paper introduces high-performance architecture for fully parallel stochastic Low-Density Parity-Check (LDPC) field programmable gate array (FPGA) based LDPC decoder. The new approach is designed to decrease the decoding latency and to reduce the FPGA logic utilisation. To accomplish the target logic utilisation reduction, the routing of the proposed sub-variable node (VN) internal memory is designed to utilize one slice distributed RAM. Furthermore, a VN initialization, using the channel input probability, is achieved to enhance the decoder convergence, without extra resources and without integrating the output saturated-counters. The Xilinx FPGA implementation, of IEEE 802.3an standard LDPC code, shows that the proposed decoding approach attain high performance along with reduction of FPGA logic utilisation.

Keywords: low-density parity-check (LDPC) decoder, stochastic decoding, field programmable gate array (FPGA), IEEE 802.3an standard

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Authors: Denys Osipenko, Jonathan Crook

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Because of the variety of the card holders’ behaviour types and income sources each consumer account can be transferred to a variety of states. Each consumer account can be inactive, transactor, revolver, delinquent, defaulted and requires an individual model for the income prediction. The estimation of transition probabilities between statuses at the account level helps to avoid the memorylessness of the Markov Chains approach. This paper investigates the transition probabilities estimation approaches to credit cards income prediction at the account level. The key question of empirical research is which approach gives more accurate results: multinomial logistic regression or multistage conditional logistic regression with binary target. Both models have shown moderate predictive power. Prediction accuracy for conditional logistic regression depends on the order of stages for the conditional binary logistic regression. On the other hand, multinomial logistic regression is easier for usage and gives integrate estimations for all states without priorities. Thus further investigations can be concentrated on alternative modeling approaches such as discrete choice models.

Keywords: multinomial regression, conditional logistic regression, credit account state, transition probability

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Authors: Zahra Ramezanpanah, Joachim Carvallo, Aurelien Rodriguez

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This paper aims to detect anomalies in streaming data using machine learning algorithms. In this regard, we designed two separate pipelines and evaluated the effectiveness of each separately. The first pipeline, based on supervised machine learning methods, consists of two phases. In the first phase, we trained several supervised models using the UNSW-NB15 data-set. We measured the efficiency of each using different performance metrics and selected the best model for the second phase. At the beginning of the second phase, we first, using Argus Server, sniffed a local area network. Several types of attacks were simulated and then sent the sniffed data to a running algorithm at short intervals. This algorithm can display the results of each packet of received data in real-time using the trained model. The second pipeline presented in this paper is based on unsupervised algorithms, in which a Temporal Graph Network (TGN) is used to monitor a local network. The TGN is trained to predict the probability of future states of the network based on its past behavior. Our contribution in this section is introducing an indicator to identify anomalies from these predicted probabilities.

Keywords: temporal graph network, anomaly detection, cyber security, IDS

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Authors: Debasis Sarkar

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Building Information Modeling (BIM) is a holistic documentation process for operational visualization, design coordination, estimation and project scheduling. BIM software defines objects parametrically and it is a tool for virtual reality. Primary advantage of implementing BIM is the visual coordination of the building structure and systems such as Mechanical, Electrical and Plumbing (MEP) and it also identifies the possible conflicts between the building systems. This paper is an attempt to develop a risk based BIM model which would highlight the primary advantages of application of BIM pertaining to urban infrastructure transportation project. It has been observed that about 40% of the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) companies use BIM but primarily for their outsourced projects. Also, 65% of the respondents agree that BIM would be used quiet strongly for future construction projects in India. The 3D models developed with Revit 2015 software would reduce co-ordination problems amongst the architects, structural engineers, contractors and building service providers (MEP). Integration of risk management along with BIM would provide enhanced co-ordination, collaboration and high probability of successful completion of the complex infrastructure transportation project within stipulated time and cost frame.

Keywords: building information modeling (BIM), infrastructure transportation, project risk management, underground metro rail

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Authors: Issa M. Hweidi, Saba W. Al-Ibraheem

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This study aimed to assess the increased hospital length of stay and healthcare costs associated with SSIs among ventriculoperitoneal shunting surgery patients in Jordan. This study adopted a retrospective and nested 1:1 matched case-control design. A non-probability convenient sample of 48 VP shunt patients was recruited for the purpose of the study. The targeted groups of the study basically used to cross-match the variables investigated to minimize the risk of confounding. Information was extracted from the text of patients' electronic health records. As compared to the non-SSI group, the SSI group had an extra mean healthcare cost of $13,696.53 (p=0.001) and longer hospital length of stay (22.64 mean additional days). Furthermore, Acinetobacter baumannii and Klebsiella pneumonia were identified as being the most predominant causative agents of SSIs. The results of this study may provide baseline data for national and regional benchmarking to evaluate the quality of care provided to likewise patients. Adherence to infection control strategies and protocols considering new surveillance methods of SSIs is encouraged.

Keywords: ventriculoperitoneal shunt, health care cost, length of stay, neurosurgery, surgical site infections

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Authors: Ernesto Linan, Linda Cruz, Lucero Becerra

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In this paper, a new hybridized algorithm based on Chemical Reaction Optimization and Simulated Annealing is proposed to solve the alignment sequence Problem. The Chemical Reaction Optimization is a population-based meta-heuristic algorithm based on the principles of a chemical reaction. Simulated Annealing is applied to solve a large number of combinatorial optimization problems of general-purpose. In this paper, we propose hybridization between Chemical Reaction Optimization algorithm and Simulated Annealing in order to solve the Sequence Alignment Problem. An initial population of molecules is defined at beginning of the proposed algorithm, where each molecule represents a sequence alignment problem. In order to simulate inter-molecule collisions, the process of Chemical Reaction is placed inside the Metropolis Cycle at certain values of temperature. Inside this cycle, change of molecules is done due to collisions; some molecules are accepted by applying Boltzmann probability. The results with the hybrid scheme are better than the results obtained separately.

Keywords: chemical reaction optimization, sequence alignment problem, simulated annealing algorithm, metaheuristics

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Authors: Dongqi Sun, Juan Tao, Yingying Wu

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This paper reexamines the appropriateness of contrarian trades as a proxy of informed trades, using high frequency Chinese stock data. Employing this measure for 5 minute intervals, a U-shaped intraday pattern of probability of informed trades (PIN) is found for the CSI300 stocks, which is consistent with previous findings for other markets. However, while dividing the trades into different sizes, a reversed U-shaped PIN from large-sized trades, opposed to the U-shaped pattern for small- and medium-sized trades, is observed. Drawing from the mixed evidence with different trade sizes, the price impact of trades is further investigated. By examining the relationship between trade imbalances and unexpected returns, larges-sized trades are found to have significant price impact. This implies that in those intervals with large trades, it is non-contrarian trades that are more likely to be informed trades. Taking account of the price impact of large-sized trades, non-contrarian trades are used to proxy for informed trading in those intervals with large trades, and contrarian trades are still used to measure informed trading in other intervals. A stronger U-shaped PIN is demonstrated from this modification. Auto-correlation and information advantage tests for robustness also support the modified informed trading measure.

Keywords: contrarian trades, informed trading, price impact, trade imbalance

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Authors: Sayed Amir Hamzeh Mirkheshti

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Offshore wind energy as a strategic renewable energy, has been growing rapidly due to availability, abundance and clean nature of it. On the other hand, budget of this project is incredibly higher in comparison with other renewable energies and it takes more duration. Accordingly, precise estimation of time and cost is needed in order to promote awareness in the developers and society and to convince them to develop this kind of energy despite its difficulties. Occurrence risks during on project would cause its duration and cost constantly changed. Therefore, to develop offshore wind power, it is critical to consider all potential risks which impacted project and to simulate their impact. Hence, knowing about these risks could be useful for the selection of most influencing strategies such as avoidance, transition, and act in order to decrease their probability and impact. This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility of 500 MV offshore wind project in the Persian Gulf and compares its situation with uncertainty resources and risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate time and cost of offshore wind project under risk circumstances and uncertain resources by using Monte Carlo simulation. We analyzed each risk and activity along with their distribution function and their effect on the project.

Keywords: wind energy project, uncertain resources, risks, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Nida Amin, Fahad Tanveer, Hina Shabbir, Ayesha Saeed, Attiqa Riaz

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The gradual progression of corneal disorder keratoconus significantly impairs eyesight and quality of life, increasing the likelihood of depression. Using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) at the AL-Ibrahim Eye Hospital in Karachi, this study aimed to evaluate the occurrence of depression and anxiety symptoms in patients with keratoconus and to suggest better treatment. A descriptive-analytical study was conducted at Al-Ibrahim Eye Hospital Karachi from March to April 2022, and patients diagnosed with symptomatic keratoconus were recruited using a non-probability convenient sampling technique. After obtaining written informed consent from patients, keratoconus severity was assessed using visual acuity and corneal topography. Symptoms of anxiety and depression were assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression (HADS) Scale. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 20.0. Spearman correlation coefficient. Of the 108 participants, 60 (56%) were female and 48 (44%) were male. Using the HADS scale, 44 (40.7%) patients were classified as normal with a HADS score of (0-7), 23 (21.3%) as borderline with a HADS score of (8-10) and 41 (38%) patients were diagnosed with anxiety and depression with a HADS score of (11-21). Depression and anxiety are highly prevalent among patients in advanced stages of the disease.

Keywords: cornea, keratoconus, anxiety, depression, corneal topography, mental health

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Authors: Jane O. Munonye

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Climate change has both negative and positive effects in agricultural production. For agriculture to be sustainable in adverse climate change condition, some natural measures are needed. The issue is to produce more food with available natural resources and reduce the contribution of agriculture to climate change. The study reviewed climate change and sustainable agriculture in southeast Nigeria. Data from the study were from secondary sources. Ten scientific papers were consulted and data for the review were collected from three. The objectives of the paper were as follows: to review the effect of climate change on one major arable crop in southeast Nigeria (yam; Dioscorea rotundata); evident of climate change impact and methods for sustainable agricultural production in adverse weather condition. Some climatic parameter as sunshine, relative humidity and rainfall have negative relationship with yam production and significant at 10% probability. Crop production was predicted to decline by 25% per hectare by 2060 while livestock production has increased the incidence of diseases and pathogens as the major effect to agriculture. Methods for sustainable agriculture and damage of natural resources by climate change were highlighted. Agriculture needs to be transformed as climate changes to enable the sector to be sustainable. There should be a policy in place to facilitate the integration of sustainability in Nigeria agriculture.

Keywords: agriculture, climate change, sustainability, yam

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Authors: Yonathan Audhitya Suthihono, Ratih Dyah Kusumastuti

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The radiology department in a tertiary referral hospital faces service operation challenges such as huge and various patient arrival, which can increase the probability of patient queuing. During the COVID-19 pandemic, it is mandatory to apply social distancing protocol in the radiology department. A strategy to prevent the accumulation of patients at one spot would be required. The aim of this study is to identify an alternative solution which can reduce the patient’s waiting time in radiology department. Discrete event simulation (DES) is used for this study by constructing several improvement scenarios with Arena simulation software. Statistical analysis is used to test the validity of the base case scenario model and to investigate the performance of the improvement scenarios. The result of this study shows that the selected scenario is able to reduce patient waiting time significantly, which leads to more efficient services in a radiology department, be able to serve patients more effectively, and thus increase patient satisfaction. The result of the simulation can be used by the hospital management to improve the operational performance of the radiology department.

Keywords: discrete event simulation, hospital management patient queuing model, radiology department services

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Authors: Oscar Maina Irungu

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Background: Men who have sex with men (MSM) in Mtwapa Town, Kilifi County are at high risk of HIV infection. Probability sample surveys to determine HIV prevalence among MSM in Mtwapa are needed to inform prevention and care services. Methods: In 2013, a cross-sectional survey was conducted among MSM aged 18-24 years old, using respondent-driven sampling (RDS) in Mtwapa. Consenting MSM were tested for HIV (fingerstick rapid test). Population-based prevalence and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using RDS Analysis Tool (RDSAT). Results: Among 274 MSM, the median age was 20 years (IQR: 19-23 years). Fifty percent of MSM reported not selling sex, while 13.2 % reported sex work as their “main occupation”, and another 28.4 % reported selling sex in the past two months (but not as their main occupation).Overall HIV prevalence was 19.2 % (CI: 12.2-23.6%). HIV prevalence was higher among MSM who reported sex work as their main occupation (28.3%,CI: 12.1-42.3%) or selling sex in the past two months (26.6 %, CI: 17.2-35.7 %),than among MSM who did not sell sex (11.6%,CI: 7.0-18.1%). Conclusion: HIV prevalence among MSM were high than among Kilifi’s general population aged 15-64 years (8.8%; 2010 KAIS) and highest in male sex workers. Health programs need to address concerns and modify services to meet needs of diverse subgroups of MSM. We recommend continued, periodic surveillance to monitor HIV prevalence among MSM in Mtwapa, and expansion to other areas in Kenya.

Keywords: power point, Kenya, homosexuality, sex

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Authors: Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain, Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar

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The construction of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves is one of the most common and useful tools in order to design hydraulic structures and to provide a mathematical relationship between rainfall characteristics. IDF curves, especially those in Peninsular Malaysia, are often built using moving windows of rainfalls. However, these windows do not represent the actual rainfall events since the duration of rainfalls is usually prefixed. Hence, instead of using moving windows, this study aims to find regionalized distributions for IDF curves of extreme rainfalls based on storm events. Homogeneity test is performed on annual maximum of storm intensities to identify homogeneous regions of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The L-moment method is then used to regionalized Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution of these annual maximums and subsequently. IDF curves are constructed using the regional distributions. The differences between the IDF curves obtained and IDF curves found using at-site GEV distributions are observed through the computation of the coefficient of variation of root mean square error, mean percentage difference and the coefficient of determination. The small differences implied that the construction of IDF curves could be simplified by finding a general probability distribution of each region. This will also help in constructing IDF curves for sites with no rainfall station.

Keywords: IDF curves, L-moments, regionalization, storm events

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Authors: Mohammed Bakhit Kashoob, Mohammed Salim Al-Maashani, Ahmed Abdullah Al-Marhoon

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Traffic calming measures are different design features or strategies used to reduce the speed of a traveling vehicle on a particular road. These calming measures are common on rural roads of Oman. Some of these measures are road speed limits, vertical deflections, horizontal deflections, and road signs. In general, vertical deflections such as rumble strips, road studs (cat’s eye), speed tables, and speed humps are widely used. In this paper, as vehicle speeding is a major cause of road traffic crashes and high fatalities in Oman, the effectiveness of existing traffic calming measures at current locations on rural roads is assessed. The study was conducted on the rural roads of Dhofar Governorate, which is located in the south of Oman. A special focus is given to the calming measures implemented on the mountain roads of Dhofar. It is shown that vertical deflection calming measures are effective in reducing vehicle speed to 20 to 40 kph, depending on the vertical deflection type and spacing. Calming measures are also proposed at locations with a high probability of traffic crashes based on the number of traffic crashes at these locations, road type, and road geometry.

Keywords: road safety, rural roads, speed, traffic calming measures, traffic crash

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Authors: Seini G. Kaufusi

Abstract:

Background. Physician-assisted death (PAD) has and continues to be a controversial issue in the U.S. Dying with dignity statutes exists in 9 U.S. jurisdictions that permit competent adults diagnosed with a terminal illness and given a prognosis of 6 month or less to live to request medication to hasten death. Robust advocacy for and against PAD influences policy, and opinions vary. Aim. This study aims to explore the association between race and the attitudes toward physician-assisted death in the U.S. Methods. Data for this study derives from the General Social Survey (GSS) dataset, a national survey conducted by the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) that focuses on the opinions and values of American’s. A cross-sectional design and probability sample from the 2018 data set was used to randomly select respondents. Results. The results indicated that race is significantly associated with attitudes towards physician-assisted death. The level of significance suggests a strong positive association, and the direction indicated that Black and Other racial groups have higher rates of positive decision about PAD. Conclusion. Although attitudes towards PAD varied, Black and other racial groups had favorable decisions for PAD. Further research is crucial in the continuous debate on PAD and understanding the influences of predictors for or against PAD.

Keywords: attitudes, euthanasia, physician-assisted death, race

Procedia PDF Downloads 163

Authors: Kernou Nassim

Abstract:

The current study presents a vulnerability and a reliability-mechanical approach that focuses on evaluating the seismic performance of reinforced concrete structures to determine the probability of failure. In this case, the performance function reflecting the non-linear behavior of the structure is modeled by a response surface to establish an analytical relationship between the random variables (strength of concrete and yield strength of steel) and mechanical responses of the structure (inter-floor displacement) obtained by the pushover results of finite element simulations. The push over-analysis is executed by software SAP2000. The results acquired prove that properly designed frames will perform well under seismic loads. It is a comparative study of the behavior of the existing structure before and after reinforcement using the pushover method. The coupling indirect mechanical reliability by response surface avoids prohibitive calculation times. Finally, the results of the proposed approach are compared with Monte Carlo Simulation. The comparative study shows that the structure is more reliable after the introduction of new shear walls.

Keywords: finite element method, surface response, reliability, reliability mechanical coupling, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Benson Ade Eniola Afere

Abstract:

Over the years, kernel density estimation has been extensively studied within the context of nonparametric density estimation. The fundamental components of kernel density estimation are the kernel function and the bandwidth. While the mathematical exploration of the kernel component has been relatively limited, its selection and development remain crucial. The Mean Integrated Squared Error (MISE), serving as a measure of discrepancy, provides a robust framework for assessing the effectiveness of any kernel function. A kernel function with a lower MISE is generally considered to perform better than one with a higher MISE. Hence, the primary aim of this article is to create kernels that exhibit significantly reduced MISE when compared to existing classical kernels. Consequently, this article introduces a cluster of hybrid polynomial kernel families. The construction of these proposed kernel functions is carried out heuristically by combining two kernels from the classical polynomial kernel family using probability axioms. We delve into the analysis of error propagation within these kernels. To assess their performance, simulation experiments, and real-life datasets are employed. The obtained results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid kernels surpass their classical kernel counterparts in terms of performance.

Keywords: classical polynomial kernels, cluster of families, global error, hybrid Kernels, Kernel density estimation, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Can Liu, Graham Markowitz, John Balay, Ben Pratt

Abstract:

Baseline or natural hydrology is commonly employed for hydrologic modeling and quantification of hydrologic alteration due to manmade activities. It can inform planning and policy related efforts for various state and federal water resource agencies to restore natural streamflow flow regimes. A common challenge faced by hydrologists is how to replicate unaltered streamflow conditions, particularly in large watershed settings prone to development and regulation. Three different methods were employed to estimate baseline streamflow conditions for 6 major subbasins the Susquehanna River Basin; those being: 1) incorporation of consumptive water use and reservoir operations back into regulated gaged records; 2) using a map correlation method and flow duration (exceedance probability) regression equations; 3) extending the pre-regulation streamflow records based on the relationship between concurrent streamflows at unregulated and regulated gage locations. Parallel analyses were perform among the three methods and limitations associated with each are presented. Results from these analyses indicate that generating baseline streamflow records at large-scale watersheds remain challenging, even with long-term continuous stream gage records available.

Keywords: baseline hydrology, streamflow gage, subbasin, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: E. Akpinar, A. Erol, M.F. Cakir

Abstract:

Precast reinforced concrete (RC) structures are excellent alternatives for construction world all over the globe, thanks to their rapid erection phase, ease mounting process, better quality and reasonable prices. Such structures are rather popular for industrial buildings. For the sake of economic importance of such industrial buildings as well as significance of safety, like every other type of structures, performance assessment and structural risk analysis are important. Fragility curves are powerful tools for damage projection and assessment for any sort of building as well as precast structures. In this study, a comparative review of current knowledge on fragility analysis of industrial precast RC structures were presented and findings in previous studies were compiled. Effects of different structural variables, parameters and building geometries as well as soil conditions on fragility analysis of precast structures are reviewed. It was aimed to briefly present the information in the literature about the procedure of damage probability prediction including fragility curves for such industrial facilities. It is found that determination of the aforementioned structural parameters as well as selecting analysis procedure are critically important for damage prediction of industrial precast RC structures using fragility curves.

Keywords: damage prediction, fragility curve, industrial buildings, precast reinforced concrete structures

Procedia PDF Downloads 190