Search results for: structural equation modeling
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9002

Search results for: structural equation modeling

1712 Seismic Assessment of Passive Control Steel Structure with Modified Parameter of Oil Damper

Authors: Ahmad Naqi

Abstract:

Today, the passively controlled buildings are extensively becoming popular due to its excellent lateral load resistance circumstance. Typically, these buildings are enhanced with a damping device that has high market demand. Some manufacturer falsified the damping device parameter during the production to achieve the market demand. Therefore, this paper evaluates the seismic performance of buildings equipped with damping devices, which their parameter modified to simulate the falsified devices, intentionally. For this purpose, three benchmark buildings of 4-, 10-, and 20-story were selected from JSSI (Japan Society of Seismic Isolation) manual. The buildings are special moment resisting steel frame with oil damper in the longitudinal direction only. For each benchmark buildings, two types of structural elements are designed to resist the lateral load with and without damping devices (hereafter, known as Trimmed & Conventional Building). The target building was modeled using STERA-3D, a finite element based software coded for study purpose. Practicing the software one can develop either three-dimensional Model (3DM) or Lumped Mass model (LMM). Firstly, the seismic performance of 3DM and LMM models was evaluated and found excellent coincide for the target buildings. The simplified model of LMM used in this study to produce 66 cases for both of the buildings. Then, the device parameters were modified by ± 40% and ±20% to predict many possible conditions of falsification. It is verified that the building which is design to sustain the lateral load with support of damping device (Trimmed Building) are much more under threat as a result of device falsification than those building strengthen by damping device (Conventional Building).

Keywords: passive control system, oil damper, seismic assessment, lumped mass model

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1711 Changes in Cognition of Elderly People: A Longitudinal Study in Kanchanaburi Province, Thailand

Authors: Natchaphon Auampradit, Patama Vapattanawong, Sureeporn Punpuing, Malee Sunpuwan, Tawanchai Jirapramukpitak

Abstract:

Longitudinal studies related to cognitive impairment in elderly are necessary for health promotion and development. The purposes of this study were (1) to examine changes in cognition of elderly over time and (2) to examine the impacts of changes in social determinants of health (SDH) toward changes in cognition of elderly by using the secondary data derived from the Kanchanaburi Demographic Surveillance System (KDSS) by the Institute for Population and Social Research (IPSR) which contained longitudinal data on individuals, households, and villages. Two selected projects included the Health and Social Support for Elderly in KDSS in 2007 and the Population, Economic, Social, Cultural, and Long-term Care Surveillance for Thai Elderly People’s Health Promotion in 2011. The samples were 586 elderly participated in both projects. SDH included living arrangement, social relationships with children, relatives, and friends, household asset-based wealth index, household monthly income, loans for livings, loans for investment, and working status. Cognitive impairment was measured by category fluency and delayed recall. This study employed Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) model to investigate changes in cognition by taking SDH and other variables such as age, gender, marital status, education, and depression into the model. The unstructured correlation structure was selected to use for analysis. The results revealed that 24 percent of elderly had cognitive impairment at baseline. About 13 percent of elderly still had cognitive impairment during 2007 until 2011. About 21 percent and 11 percent of elderly had cognitive decline and cognitive improvement, respectively. The cross-sectional analysis showed that household asset-based wealth index, social relationship with friends, working status, age, marital status, education, and depression were significantly associated with cognitive impairment. The GEE model revealed longitudinal effects of household asset-based wealth index and working status against cognition during 2007 until 2011. There was no longitudinal effect of social conditions against cognition. Elderly living with richer household asset-based wealth index, still being employed, and being younger were less likely to have cognitive impairment. The results strongly suggested that poorer household asset-based wealth index and being unemployed were served as a risk factor for cognitive impairment over time. Increasing age was still the major risk for cognitive impairment as well.

Keywords: changes in cognition, cognitive impairment, elderly, KDSS, longitudinal study

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1710 Role of Chloride Ions on The Properties of Electrodeposited ZnO Nanostructures

Authors: L. Mentar, O. Baka, M. R. Khelladi, A. Azizi

Abstract:

Zinc oxide (ZnO), as a transparent semiconductor with a wide band gap of 3.4 eV and a large exciton binding energy of 60 meV at room temperature, is one of the most promising materials for a wide range of modern applications. With the development of film growth technologies and intense recent interest in nanotechnology, several varieties of ZnO nanostructured materials have been synthesized almost exclusively by thermal evaporation methods, particularly chemical vapor deposition (CVD), which generally require a high growth temperature above 550 °C. In contrast, wet chemistry techniques such as hydrothermal synthesis and electro-deposition are promising alternatives to synthesize ZnO nanostructures, especially at a significantly lower temperature (below 200°C). In this study, the electro-deposition method was used to produce zinc oxide (ZnO) nanostructures on fluorine-doped tin oxide (FTO)-coated conducting glass substrate from chloride bath. We present the influence of KCl concentrations on the electro-deposition process, morphological, structural and optical properties of ZnO nanostructures. The potentials of electro-deposition of ZnO were determined using the cyclic voltammetry. From the Mott-Schottky measurements, the flat-band potential and the donor density for the ZnO nanostructure are determined. Field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM) images showed different sizes and morphologies of the nanostructures which depends on the concentrations of Cl-. Very netted hexagonal grains are observed for the nanostructures deposited at 0.1M of KCl. X-ray diffraction (XRD) study confirms the Wurtzite phase of the ZnO nanostructures with a preferred oriented along (002) plane normal to the substrate surface. UV-Visible spectra showed a significant optical transmission (~80%), which decreased with low Cl-1 concentrations. The energy band gap values have been estimated to be between 3.52 and 3.80 eV.

Keywords: Cl-, electro-deposition, FESEM, Mott-Schottky, XRD, ZnO

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1709 Meanings and Concepts of Standardization in Systems Medicine

Authors: Imme Petersen, Wiebke Sick, Regine Kollek

Abstract:

In systems medicine, high-throughput technologies produce large amounts of data on different biological and pathological processes, including (disturbed) gene expressions, metabolic pathways and signaling. The large volume of data of different types, stored in separate databases and often located at different geographical sites have posed new challenges regarding data handling and processing. Tools based on bioinformatics have been developed to resolve the upcoming problems of systematizing, standardizing and integrating the various data. However, the heterogeneity of data gathered at different levels of biological complexity is still a major challenge in data analysis. To build multilayer disease modules, large and heterogeneous data of disease-related information (e.g., genotype, phenotype, environmental factors) are correlated. Therefore, a great deal of attention in systems medicine has been put on data standardization, primarily to retrieve and combine large, heterogeneous datasets into standardized and incorporated forms and structures. However, this data-centred concept of standardization in systems medicine is contrary to the debate in science and technology studies (STS) on standardization that rather emphasizes the dynamics, contexts and negotiations of standard operating procedures. Based on empirical work on research consortia that explore the molecular profile of diseases to establish systems medical approaches in the clinic in Germany, we trace how standardized data are processed and shaped by bioinformatics tools, how scientists using such data in research perceive such standard operating procedures and which consequences for knowledge production (e.g. modeling) arise from it. Hence, different concepts and meanings of standardization are explored to get a deeper insight into standard operating procedures not only in systems medicine, but also beyond.

Keywords: data, science and technology studies (STS), standardization, systems medicine

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1708 The Effect of Loud Working Environment on Incidence of Back Pain

Authors: Marcel Duh, Jadranka Stricevic, David Halozan, Dusan Celan

Abstract:

Back pain is not only the result of structural or biomechanical abnormalities of the spine but is also associated with cognitive and behavioral aspects of pain and thus represents biopsychosocial problem. Stressors are not only interpersonal conflicts, negative life events, and dangerous situations but also noise. Effects of noise on human beings are psychological (excitement, stress), sensory, and physiological. The harmful effects of noise can be seen in the 40-65 dB range and are manifested as fatigue, irritability, poor sleep and psychological discomfort of the worker. Within 65-90 dB range, body metabolism increases, oxygen consumption is higher, tachycardia and hypertension appear, and the tone of skeletal muscles increases. The purpose of the study was to determine whether the stress caused by noise at the work place increases the incidence of back pain. Measurements of noise levels were carried out in three different wards of social care institution. The measurement on each ward was repeated 3 times (total of 9 measurements) for 8 hours during the morning shift. The device was set up in the room where clients spent most of the day. The staff on the ward replied to the questionnaire consisting of closed type questions about basic demographic information and information about back pain. We find that noise levels as measured in our study had no statistically significant effect on the incidence of back pain (p = 0.90). We also find that health care workers who perceive their work as stressful, have more back pain than those who perceive their job as unstressful, but correlation is statistically insignificant (p = 0.682). With our study, we have proven findings of other authors, that noise level below 65 dB does not have a significant influence on the incidence of back pain.

Keywords: health care workers, musculoskeletal disorder, noise, sick leave

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1707 Synthesis and Characterization of Cassava Starch-Zinc Nanocomposite Film for Food Packaging Application

Authors: Adeshina Fadeyibi

Abstract:

Application of pure thermoplastic film in food packaging is greatly limited because of its poor service performance, often enhanced by the addition of organic or inorganic particles in the range of 1–100 nm. Thus, this study was conducted to develop cassava starch zinc-nanocomposite films for applications in food packaging. Three blending ratios of 1000 g cassava starch, 45–55 % (w/w) glycerol and 0–2 % (w/w) zinc nanoparticles were formulated, mixed and mechanically homogenized to form the nanocomposite. Thermoplastic were prepared, from a dispersed mixture of 24 g of the nanocomposite and 600 ml of distilled water, and heated to 90oC for 30 minutes. Plastic molds of 350 ×180 mm dimension and 8, 10 and 12 mm depths were used for film casting and drying at 60oC and 80 % RH for 24 hour. The average thicknesses of the dried films were found to be 15, 16 and 17 µm. The films were characterized based on their barrier, thermal, mechanical and structural properties. The results show that the oxygen and water vapor barrier properties increased with glycerol concentration and decreased with thickness; but the full width at half maximum (FWHM) and d- spacing increased with thickness. The higher degree of d- spacing obtained is a consequence of higher polymer intercalation and exfoliation. Also, only 2 % weight degradation was observed when the films were exposed to temperature between 30–60oC; indicating that they are thermally stable and can be used for packaging applications in the tropics. The mechanical properties of the film were higher than that of the pure thermoplastic but comparable with the LDPE films. The information on the characterized attributes and optimization of the cassava starch zinc-nanocomposite films justifies their alternative application to pure thermoplastic and conventional films for food packaging.

Keywords: synthesis, characterization, casaava Starch, nanocomposite film, packaging

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1706 Assessment and Evaluation Resilience of Urban Neighborhoods in Coping with Natural Disasters in in the Metropolis of Tabriz (Case Study: Region 6 of Tabriz)

Authors: Ali panahi-Kosar Khosravi

Abstract:

Earthquake resilience is one of the most important theoretical and practical concepts in crisis management. Over the past few decades, the rapid growth of urban areas and developing lower urban areas (especially in developing countries) have made them more vulnerable to human and natural crises. Therefore, the resilience of urban communities, especially low-income and unhealthy neighborhoods, is of particular importance. The present study seeks to assess and evaluate the resilience of neighborhoods in the center of district 6 of Tabriz in terms of awareness, knowledge and personal skills, social and psychological capital, managerial-institutional, and the ability to return to appropriate and sustainable conditions. The research method in this research is descriptive-analytical. The authors used library and survey methods to collect information and a questionnaire to assess resilience. The statistical population of this study is the total households living in the four neighborhoods of Shanb Ghazan, Khatib, Gharamalek, and Abuzar alley. Three hundred eighty-four families from four neighborhoods were selected based on the Cochran formula using a simple random sampling method. A one-sample t-test, simple linear regression, and structural equations were used to test the research hypotheses. Findings showed that only two social and psychological awareness and capital indicators in district 6 of Tabriz had a favorable and approved status. Therefore, considering the multidimensional concept of resilience, district 6 of Tabriz is in an unfavorable resilience situation. Also, the findings based on the analysis of variance indicated no significant difference between the neighborhoods of district 6 in terms of resilience, and most neighborhoods are in an unfavorable situation.

Keywords: resilience, statistical analysis, earthquake, district 6 of tabriz

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1705 Analysis of the Detachment of Water Droplets from a Porous Fibrous Surface

Authors: Ibrahim Rassoul, E-K. Si Ahmed

Abstract:

The growth, deformation, and detachment of fluid droplets adherent to solid substrates is a problem of fundamental interest with numerous practical applications. Specific interest in this proposal is the problem of a droplet on a fibrous, hydrophobic substrate subjected to body or external forces (gravity, convection). The past decade has seen tremendous advances in proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) technology. However, there remain many challenges to bring commercially viable stationary PEMFC products to the market. PEMFCs are increasingly emerging as a viable alternative clean power source for automobile and stationary applications. Before PEMFCs can be employed to power automobiles and homes, several key technical challenges must be properly addressed. One technical challenge is elucidating the mechanisms underlying water transport in and removal from PEMFCs. On the one hand, sufficient water is needed in the polymer electrolyte membrane or PEM to maintain sufficiently high proton conductivity. On the other hand, too much liquid water present in the cathode can cause 'flooding' (that is, pore space is filled with excessive liquid water) and hinder the transport of the oxygen reactant from the gas flow channel (GFC) to the three-phase reaction sites. The aim of this work is to investigate the stability of a liquid water droplet emerging form a GDL pore, to gain fundamental insight into the instability process leading to detachment. The approach will combine analytical and numerical modeling with experimental visualization and measurements.

Keywords: polymer electrolyte fuel cell, water droplet, gas diffusion layer, contact angle, surface tension

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1704 Ontology based Fault Detection and Diagnosis system Querying and Reasoning examples

Authors: Marko Batic, Nikola Tomasevic, Sanja Vranes

Abstract:

One of the strongholds in the ubiquitous efforts related to the energy conservation and energy efficiency improvement is represented by the retrofit of high energy consumers in buildings. In general, HVAC systems represent the highest energy consumers in buildings. However they usually suffer from mal-operation and/or malfunction, causing even higher energy consumption than necessary. Various Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD) systems can be successfully employed for this purpose, especially when it comes to the application at a single device/unit level. In the case of more complex systems, where multiple devices are operating in the context of the same building, significant energy efficiency improvements can only be achieved through application of comprehensive FDD systems relying on additional higher level knowledge, such as their geographical location, served area, their intra- and inter- system dependencies etc. This paper presents a comprehensive FDD system that relies on the utilization of common knowledge repository that stores all critical information. The discussed system is deployed as a test-bed platform at the two at Fiumicino and Malpensa airports in Italy. This paper aims at presenting advantages of implementation of the knowledge base through the utilization of ontology and offers improved functionalities of such system through examples of typical queries and reasoning that enable derivation of high level energy conservation measures (ECM). Therefore, key SPARQL queries and SWRL rules, based on the two instantiated airport ontologies, are elaborated. The detection of high level irregularities in the operation of airport heating/cooling plants is discussed and estimation of energy savings is reported.

Keywords: airport ontology, knowledge management, ontology modeling, reasoning

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1703 Collapse Load Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Pile Group in Liquefying Soils under Lateral Loading

Authors: Pavan K. Emani, Shashank Kothari, V. S. Phanikanth

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The ultimate load analysis of RC pile groups has assumed a lot of significance under liquefying soil conditions, especially due to post-earthquake studies of 1964 Niigata, 1995 Kobe and 2001 Bhuj earthquakes. The present study reports the results of numerical simulations on pile groups subjected to monotonically increasing lateral loads under design amounts of pile axial loading. The soil liquefaction has been considered through the non-linear p-y relationship of the soil springs, which can vary along the depth/length of the pile. This variation again is related to the liquefaction potential of the site and the magnitude of the seismic shaking. As the piles in the group can reach their extreme deflections and rotations during increased amounts of lateral loading, a precise modeling of the inelastic behavior of the pile cross-section is done, considering the complete stress-strain behavior of concrete, with and without confinement, and reinforcing steel, including the strain-hardening portion. The possibility of the inelastic buckling of the individual piles is considered in the overall collapse modes. The model is analysed using Riks analysis in finite element software to check the post buckling behavior and plastic collapse of piles. The results confirm the kinds of failure modes predicted by centrifuge test results reported by researchers on pile group, although the pile material used is significantly different from that of the simulation model. The extension of the present work promises an important contribution to the design codes for pile groups in liquefying soils.

Keywords: collapse load analysis, inelastic buckling, liquefaction, pile group

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1702 Study and Acquisition of the Duality of the Arabic Language

Authors: Oleg Redkin, Olga Bernikova

Abstract:

It is commonly accepted that every language is both pure linguistic phenomenon as well as socially significant communicative system, which exists on the basis of certain society - its collective 'native speaker'. Therefore the language evolution and features besides its own linguistic rules and regulations are also defined by the influence of a number of extra-linguistic factors. The above mentioned statement may be illustrated by the example of the Arabic language which may be characterized by the following peculiarities: - the inner logic of the Arabic language - the 'algebraicity' of its morphological paradigms and grammar rules; - association of the Arabic language with the sacred texts of Islam, its close ties with the pre-Islamic and Islamic cultural heritage - the pre-Islamic poetry and Islamic literature and science; - territorial distribution, which in recent years went far beyond the boundaries of its traditional realm due to the development of new technologies and the spread of mass media, and what is more important, migration processes; - association of the Arabic language with the so called 'Renaissance of Islam'. These peculiarities should be remembered while considering the status of the Modern Standard Arabic (MSA) language or the Classical Arabic (CA) language as well as the Modern Arabic (MA) dialects in synchrony or from the diachronic point of view. Continuity of any system in diachrony on the one hand depends on the level of its ability to adapt itself to changing environment and by its internal ties on the other. Structural durability of language is characterized by its inner logic, hierarchy of paradigms and its grammar rules, as well as continuity of their implementation in acts of everyday communication. Since the Arabic language is both linguistic and social phenomenon the process of the Arabic language acquisition and study should not be focused only on the knowledge about linguistic features or development of communicative skills alone, but must be supplied with the information related to culture, history and religion of peoples of certain region that will expand and enrich competences of the target audience.

Keywords: Arabic, culture, Islam, language

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1701 An Effective Synthesis Method of Microwave Solution Combustion with the Application of Visible Light-Responsive Photocatalyst of Rb21 Dye

Authors: Rahul Jarariya

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The textile industry uses various types of dyes and discharges a lot of highly coloured wastewater. It impacts the environment like allergic reaction, respiratory, skin problems, irritation to a mucous membrane, the upper respiratory tract has to the fore, Intoxicated dye discharges 40 to 50,000 tons with great concern. Spinel ferrites gained a lot of attention due to their wide application area from biomedical to wastewater treatment. Generally, spinel ferrite is known as M-Fe2O4. Spinel type nanoparticles possess high suspension stability. The synthesis method of Microwave solution combustion (MC) method is effective for nanoscale materials, including oxides, metals, alloys, and sulfides, works as fast and energy-efficient during the process. The review focuses on controlling, nanostructure and doping. The influence of the fuel concentration and the post-treatment temperature on the structural and magnetic properties. The effects of amounts of fuel and phase changes, particle size and shape, and magnetic properties can be characterized by various techniques. Urea is the most commonly used fuel. Ethanol or n-butanol is apt for removing impurities. As a result of the materials gives fine purity. Photocatalysis phenomena act with catalyst dosage to degrade dye from wastewater. Visible light responsive produces a large amount of hydroxyl (•OH) radical made the degradation efficiency of Rh21 type dye. It develops a narrow bandgap to make it suitable for enhanced photocatalytic activity.

Keywords: microwave solution combustion method, normal spinel, doped spinels, magnetic property, Rb21

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1700 Enhancement of Light Extraction of Luminescent Coating by Nanostructuring

Authors: Aubry Martin, Nehed Amara, Jeff Nyalosaso, Audrey Potdevin, FrançOis ReVeret, Michel Langlet, Genevieve Chadeyron

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Energy-saving lighting devices based on LightEmitting Diodes (LEDs) combine a semiconductor chip emitting in the ultraviolet or blue wavelength region to one or more phosphor(s) deposited in the form of coatings. The most common ones combine a blue LED with the yellow phosphor Y₃Al₅O₁₂:Ce³⁺ (YAG:Ce) and a red phosphor. Even if these devices are characterized by satisfying photometric parameters (Color Rendering Index, Color Temperature) and good luminous efficiencies, further improvements can be carried out to enhance light extraction efficiency (increase in phosphor forward emission). One of the possible strategies is to pattern the phosphor coatings. Here, we have worked on different ways to nanostructure the coating surface. On the one hand, we used the colloidal lithography combined with the Langmuir-Blodgett technique to directly pattern the surface of YAG:Tb³⁺ sol-gel derived coatings, YAG:Tb³⁺ being used as phosphor model. On the other hand, we achieved composite architectures combining YAG:Ce coatings and ZnO nanowires. Structural, morphological and optical properties of both systems have been studied and compared to flat YAG coatings. In both cases, nanostructuring brought a significative enhancement of photoluminescence properties under UV or blue radiations. In particular, angle-resolved photoluminescence measurements have shown that nanostructuring modifies photons path within the coatings, with a better extraction of the guided modes. These two strategies have the advantage of being versatile and applicable to any phosphor synthesizable by sol-gel technique. They then appear as promising ways to enhancement luminescence efficiencies of both phosphor coatings and the optical devices into which they are incorporated, such as LED-based lighting or safety devices.

Keywords: phosphor coatings, nanostructuring, light extraction, ZnO nanowires, colloidal lithography, LED devices

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1699 Numerical and Experimental Investigation of Fracture Mechanism in Paintings on Wood

Authors: Mohammad Jamalabadi, Noemi Zabari, Lukasz Bratasz

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Panel paintings -complex multi-layer structures consisting of wood support and a paint layer composed of a preparatory layer of gesso, paints, and varnishes- are among the category of cultural objects most vulnerable to relative humidity fluctuations and frequently found in museum collections. The current environmental specifications in museums have been derived using the criterion of crack initiation in an undamaged, usually new gesso layer laid on wood. In reality, historical paintings exhibit complex crack patterns called craquelures. The present paper analyses the structural response of a paint layer with a virtual network of rectangular cracks under environmental loadings using a three-dimensional model of a panel painting. Two modes of loading are considered -one induced by one-dimensional moisture response of wood support, termed the tangential loading, and the other isotropic induced by drying shrinkage of the gesso layer. The superposition of the two modes is also analysed. The modelling showed that minimum distances between cracks parallel to the wood grain depended on the gesso stiffness under the tangential loading. In spite of a non-zero Poisson’s ratio, gesso cracks perpendicular to the wood grain could not be generated by the moisture response of wood support. The isotropic drying shrinkage of gesso produced cracks that were almost evenly spaced in both directions. The modelling results were cross-checked with crack patterns obtained on a mock-up of a panel painting exposed to a number of extreme environmental variations in an environmental chamber.

Keywords: fracture saturation, surface cracking, paintings on wood, wood panels

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1698 The Effect of Simultaneous Doping of Silicate Bioglass with Alkaline and Alkaline-Earth Elements on Biological Behavior

Authors: Tannaz Alimardani, Amirhossein Moghanian, Morteza Elsa

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Bioactive glasses (BGs) are a group of surface-reactive biomaterials used in clinical applications as implants or filler materials in the human body to repair and replace diseased or damaged bone. Sol-gel technique was employed to prepare a SiO₂-CaO-P₂O₅ glass with a nominal composition of 58S BG with the addition of Sr and Li modifiers which imparts special properties to the BG. The effect of simultaneous addition of Sr and Li on bioactivity and biocompatibility, proliferation, alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity of osteoblast cell line MC3T3-E1 and antibacterial property against methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) bacteria were examined. BGs were characterized by X-ray diffraction, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and scanning electron microscopy before and after soaking the samples in the simulated body fluid (SBF) for different time intervals to characterize the formation of hydroxyapatite (HA) formed on the surface of BGs. Structural characterization indicated that the simultaneous presence of 5% Sr and 5% Li in 58S-BG composition not only did not retard HA formation because of the opposite effect of Sr and Li of the dissolution of BG in the SBF, but also stimulated the differentiation and proliferation of MC3T3-E1s. Moreover, the presence of Sr and Li on the dissolution of the ions resulted in an increase in the mean number of DAPI-labeled nuclei which was in good agreement with the live/dead assay. The result of antibacterial tests revealed that Sr and Li-substituted 58S bioactive glass exhibited a potential antibacterial effect against MRSA bacteria. Because of optimal proliferation and ALP activity of MC3T3-E1cells, proper bioactivity and high antibacterial potential against MRSA, BG-5/5 is suggested as a multifunctional candidate for bone tissue engineering.

Keywords: alkaline, alkaline earth, bioglass, co-doping, ion release

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1697 Heat Transfer Dependent Vortex Shedding of Thermo-Viscous Shear-Thinning Fluids

Authors: Markus Rütten, Olaf Wünsch

Abstract:

Non-Newtonian fluid properties can change the flow behaviour significantly, its prediction is more difficult when thermal effects come into play. Hence, the focal point of this work is the wake flow behind a heated circular cylinder in the laminar vortex shedding regime for thermo-viscous shear thinning fluids. In the case of isothermal flows of Newtonian fluids the vortex shedding regime is characterised by a distinct Reynolds number and an associated Strouhal number. In the case of thermo-viscous shear thinning fluids the flow regime can significantly change in dependence of the temperature of the viscous wall of the cylinder. The Reynolds number alters locally and, consequentially, the Strouhal number globally. In the present CFD study the temperature dependence of the Reynolds and Strouhal number is investigated for the flow of a Carreau fluid around a heated cylinder. The temperature dependence of the fluid viscosity has been modelled by applying the standard Williams-Landel-Ferry (WLF) equation. In the present simulation campaign thermal boundary conditions have been varied over a wide range in order to derive a relation between dimensionless heat transfer, Reynolds and Strouhal number. Together with the shear thinning due to the high shear rates close to the cylinder wall this leads to a significant decrease of viscosity of three orders of magnitude in the nearfield of the cylinder and a reduction of two orders of magnitude in the wake field. Yet the shear thinning effect is able to change the flow topology: a complex K´arm´an vortex street occurs, also revealing distinct characteristic frequencies associated with the dominant and sub-dominant vortices. Heating up the cylinder wall leads to a delayed flow separation and narrower wake flow, giving lesser space for the sequence of counter-rotating vortices. This spatial limitation does not only reduce the amplitude of the oscillating wake flow it also shifts the dominant frequency to higher frequencies, furthermore it damps higher harmonics. Eventually the locally heated wake flow smears out. Eventually, the CFD simulation results of the systematically varied thermal flow parameter study have been used to describe a relation for the main characteristic order parameters.

Keywords: heat transfer, thermo-viscous fluids, shear thinning, vortex shedding

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1696 Alterations of Molecular Characteristics of Polyethylene under the Influence of External Effects

Authors: Vigen Barkhudaryan

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The influence of external effects (γ-, UV–radiations, high temperature) in presence of air oxygen on structural transformations of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) have been investigated dependent on the polymers’ thickness, the intensity and the dose of external actions. The methods of viscosimetry, light scattering, turbidimetry and gelation measuring were used for this purpose. The comparison of influence of external effects on LDPE shows, that the destruction and cross-linking processes of macromolecules proceed simultaneously with all kinds of external effects. A remarkable growth of average molecular mass of LDPE along with the irradiation doses and heat treatment exposure growth was established. It was linear for the mass average molecular mass and at the initial doses is mainly the result of the increase of the macromolecular branching. As a result, the macromolecular hydrodynamic volumes have been changed, and therefore the dependence of viscosity average molecular mass on the doses was going through the minimum at initial doses. A significant change of molecular mass, sizes and shape of macromolecules of LDPE occurs under the influence of external effects. The influence is limited only by diffusion of oxygen during -irradiation and heat treatment. At UV–irradiation the influence is limited both by diffusion of oxygen and penetration of radiation. Consequently, the molecular transformations are deeper and evident in case of -irradiation, as soon as the polymer is transformed in a whole volume. It was also established, that the mechanism of molecular transformations in polymers from the surface layer distinctly differs from those of the sample deeper layer. A comparison of the results of these investigations allows us to conclude, that the mechanisms of influence of investigated external effects on polyethylene are similar.

Keywords: cross-linking, destruction, high temperature, LDPE, γ-radiations, UV-radiations

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1695 Competitors’ Influence Analysis of a Retailer by Using Customer Value and Huff’s Gravity Model

Authors: Yepeng Cheng, Yasuhiko Morimoto

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Customer relationship analysis is vital for retail stores, especially for supermarkets. The point of sale (POS) systems make it possible to record the daily purchasing behaviors of customers as an identification point of sale (ID-POS) database, which can be used to analyze customer behaviors of a supermarket. The customer value is an indicator based on ID-POS database for detecting the customer loyalty of a store. In general, there are many supermarkets in a city, and other nearby competitor supermarkets significantly affect the customer value of customers of a supermarket. However, it is impossible to get detailed ID-POS databases of competitor supermarkets. This study firstly focused on the customer value and distance between a customer's home and supermarkets in a city, and then constructed the models based on logistic regression analysis to analyze correlations between distance and purchasing behaviors only from a POS database of a supermarket chain. During the modeling process, there are three primary problems existed, including the incomparable problem of customer values, the multicollinearity problem among customer value and distance data, and the number of valid partial regression coefficients. The improved customer value, Huff’s gravity model, and inverse attractiveness frequency are considered to solve these problems. This paper presents three types of models based on these three methods for loyal customer classification and competitors’ influence analysis. In numerical experiments, all types of models are useful for loyal customer classification. The type of model, including all three methods, is the most superior one for evaluating the influence of the other nearby supermarkets on customers' purchasing of a supermarket chain from the viewpoint of valid partial regression coefficients and accuracy.

Keywords: customer value, Huff's Gravity Model, POS, Retailer

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1694 Effects of Ophiocordyceps dipterigena BCC 2073 β-Glucan as a Prebiotic on the in vitro Growth of Probiotic and Pathogenic Bacteria

Authors: Wai Prathumpai, Pranee Rachtawee, Sutamat Khajeeram, Pariya Na Nakorn

Abstract:

The  β-glucan produced by Ophiocordyceps dipterigena BCC 2073 is a (1, 3)-β-D-glucan with highly branching O-6-linkedside chains that is resistant to acid hydrolysis (by hydrochloric acid and porcine pancreatic alpha-amylase). This β-glucan can be utilized as a prebiotic due to its advantageous structural and biological properties. The effects of using this β-glucan as the sole carbon source for the in vitro growth of two probiotic bacteria (L. acidophilus BCC 13938 and B. animalis ATCC 25527) were investigated. Compared with the effect of using 1% glucose or fructo-oligosaccharide (FOS) as the sole carbon source, using 1% β-glucan for this purpose showed that this prebiotic supported and stimulated the growth of both types of probiotic bacteria and induced them to produce the highest levels of metabolites during their growth. The highest levels of lactic and acetic acid, 10.04 g·L-1 and 2.82 g·L-1, respectively, were observed at 2 h of cultivation using glucose as the sole carbon source. Furthermore, the fermentation broth obtained using 1% β-glucan as the sole carbon source had greater antibacterial activity against selected pathogenic bacteria (B. subtilis TISTR 008, E. coli TISTR 780, and S. typhimurium TISTR 292) than did the broths prepared using glucose or FOS as the sole carbon source. The fermentation broth obtained by growing L. acidophilus BCC 13938 in the presence of β-glucan inhibited the growth of B. subtilis TISTR 008 by more than 70% and inhibited the growth of both S. typhimurium TISTR 292 and E. coli TISTR 780 by more than 90%. In conclusion, O. dipterigena BCC 2073 is a potential source of a β-glucan prebiotic that could be used for commercial production in the near future.

Keywords: beta-glucan, Ophiocordyceps dipterigena, prebiotic, probiotic, antimicrobial

Procedia PDF Downloads 152
1693 Diagnostics of Existing Steel Structures of Winter Sport Halls

Authors: Marcela Karmazínová, Jindrich Melcher, Lubomír Vítek, Petr Cikrle

Abstract:

The paper deals with the diagnostics of steel roof structure of the winter sports stadiums built in 1970 year. The necessity of the diagnostics has been given by the requirement to the evaluation design of this structure, which has been caused by the new situation in the field of the loadings given by the validity of the European Standards in the Czech Republic from 2010 year. Due to these changes in the normative rules, in practice, existing structures are gradually subjected to the evaluation design and depending on its results to the strengthening or reconstruction, respectively. The steel roof is composed of plane truss main girders, purlins and bracings and the roof structure is supported by two arch main girders with the span of L=84 m. The in situ diagnostics of the roof structure was oriented to the following parts: (i) determination and evaluation of the actual material properties of used steel and (ii) verification of the actual dimensions of the structural members. For the solution, the non-destructive methods have been used for in situ measurement. For the indicative determination of steel strengths the modified method based on the determination of Rockwell’s hardness has been used. For the verification of the member’s dimensions (thickness of hollow sections) the ultrasound method has been used. This paper presents the results obtained using these testing methods and their evaluation, from the viewpoint of the usage for the subsequent static assessment and design evaluation of the existing structure. For the comparison, the examples of the similar evaluations realized for steel structures of the stadiums in Olomouc and Jihlava cities are briefly illustrated, too.

Keywords: actual dimensions, destructive methods, diagnostics, existing steel structure, indirect non-destructive methods, Rockwel’s hardness, sport hall, steel strength, ultrasound method.

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1692 A Model of the Universe without Expansion of Space

Authors: Jia-Chao Wang

Abstract:

A model of the universe without invoking space expansion is proposed to explain the observed redshift-distance relation and the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMB). The main hypothesized feature of the model is that photons traveling in space interact with the CMB photon gas. This interaction causes the photons to gradually lose energy through dissipation and, therefore, experience redshift. The interaction also causes some of the photons to be scattered off their track toward an observer and, therefore, results in beam intensity attenuation. As observed, the CMB exists everywhere in space and its photon density is relatively high (about 410 per cm³). The small average energy of the CMB photons (about 6.3×10⁻⁴ eV) can reduce the energies of traveling photons gradually and will not alter their momenta drastically as in, for example, Compton scattering, to totally blur the images of distant objects. An object moving through a thermalized photon gas, such as the CMB, experiences a drag. The cause is that the object sees a blue shifted photon gas along the direction of motion and a redshifted one in the opposite direction. An example of this effect can be the observed CMB dipole: The earth travels at about 368 km/s (600 km/s) relative to the CMB. In the all-sky map from the COBE satellite, radiation in the Earth's direction of motion appears 0.35 mK hotter than the average temperature, 2.725 K, while radiation on the opposite side of the sky is 0.35 mK colder. The pressure of a thermalized photon gas is given by Pγ = Eγ/3 = αT⁴/3, where Eγ is the energy density of the photon gas and α is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant. The observed CMB dipole, therefore, implies a pressure difference between the two sides of the earth and results in a CMB drag on the earth. By plugging in suitable estimates of quantities involved, such as the cross section of the earth and the temperatures on the two sides, this drag can be estimated to be tiny. But for a photon traveling at the speed of light, 300,000 km/s, the drag can be significant. In the present model, for the dissipation part, it is assumed that a photon traveling from a distant object toward an observer has an effective interaction cross section pushing against the pressure of the CMB photon gas. For the attenuation part, the coefficient of the typical attenuation equation is used as a parameter. The values of these two parameters are determined by fitting the 748 µ vs. z data points compiled from 643 supernova and 105 γ-ray burst observations with z values up to 8.1. The fit is as good as that obtained from the lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM) model using online cosmological calculators and Planck 2015 results. The model can be used to interpret Hubble's constant, Olbers' paradox, the origin and blackbody nature of the CMB radiation, the broadening of supernova light curves, and the size of the observable universe.

Keywords: CMB as the lowest energy state, model of the universe, origin of CMB in a static universe, photon-CMB photon gas interaction

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1691 Artificial Neural Network-Based Prediction of Effluent Quality of Wastewater Treatment Plant Employing Data Preprocessing Approaches

Authors: Vahid Nourani, Atefeh Ashrafi

Abstract:

Prediction of treated wastewater quality is a matter of growing importance in water treatment procedure. In this way artificial neural network (ANN), as a robust data-driven approach, has been widely used for forecasting the effluent quality of wastewater treatment. However, developing ANN model based on appropriate input variables is a major concern due to the numerous parameters which are collected from treatment process and the number of them are increasing in the light of electronic sensors development. Various studies have been conducted, using different clustering methods, in order to classify most related and effective input variables. This issue has been overlooked in the selecting dominant input variables among wastewater treatment parameters which could effectively lead to more accurate prediction of water quality. In the presented study two ANN models were developed with the aim of forecasting effluent quality of Tabriz city’s wastewater treatment plant. Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) was utilized to determine water quality as a target parameter. Model A used Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for input selection as a linear variance-based clustering method. Model B used those variables identified by the mutual information (MI) measure. Therefore, the optimal ANN structure when the result of model B compared with model A showed up to 15% percent increment in Determination Coefficient (DC). Thus, this study highlights the advantage of PCA method in selecting dominant input variables for ANN modeling of wastewater plant efficiency performance.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, biochemical oxygen demand, principal component analysis, mutual information, Tabriz wastewater treatment plant, wastewater treatment plant

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1690 VR in the Middle School Classroom-An Experimental Study on Spatial Relations and Immersive Virtual Reality

Authors: Danielle Schneider, Ying Xie

Abstract:

Middle school science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) teachers experience an exceptional challenge in the expectation to incorporate curricula that builds strong spatial reasoning skills on rudimentary geometry concepts. Because spatial ability is so closely tied to STEM students’ success, researchers are tasked to determine effective instructional practices that create an authentic learning environment within the immersive virtual reality learning environment (IVRLE). This study looked to investigate the effect of the IVRLE on middle school STEM students’ spatial reasoning skills as a methodology to benefit the STEM middle school students’ spatial reasoning skills. This experimental study was comprised of thirty 7th-grade STEM students divided into a treatment group that was engaged in an immersive VR platform where they engaged in building an object in the virtual realm by applying spatial processing and visualizing its dimensions and a control group that built the identical object using a desktop computer-based, computer-aided design (CAD) program. Before and after the students participated in the respective “3D modeling” environment, their spatial reasoning abilities were assessed using the Middle Grades Mathematics Project Spatial Visualization Test (MGMP-SVT). Additionally, both groups created a physical 3D model as a secondary measure to measure the effectiveness of the IVRLE. The results of a one-way ANOVA in this study identified a negative effect on those in the IVRLE. These findings suggest that with middle school students, virtual reality (VR) proved an inadequate tool to benefit spatial relation skills as compared to desktop-based CAD.

Keywords: virtual reality, spatial reasoning, CAD, middle school STEM

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1689 Nonlinear Interaction of Free Surface Sloshing of Gaussian Hump with Its Container

Authors: Mohammad R. Jalali

Abstract:

Movement of liquid with a free surface in a container is known as slosh. For instance, slosh occurs when water in a closed tank is set in motion by a free surface displacement, or when liquid natural gas in a container is vibrated by an external driving force, such as an earthquake or movement induced by transport. Slosh is also derived from resonant switching of a natural basin. During sloshing, different types of motion are produced by energy exchange between the liquid and its container. In present study, a numerical model is developed to simulate the nonlinear even harmonic oscillations of free surface sloshing of an initial disturbance to the free surface of a liquid in a closed square basin. The response of the liquid free surface is affected by amplitude and motion frequencies of its container; therefore, sloshing involves complex fluid-structure interactions. In the present study, nonlinear interaction of free surface sloshing of an initial Gaussian hump with its uneven container is predicted numerically. For this purpose, Green-Naghdi (GN) equations are applied as governing equation of fluid field to produce nonlinear second-order and higher-order wave interactions. These equations reduce the dimensions from three to two, yielding equations that can be solved efficiently. The GN approach assumes a particular flow kinematic structure in the vertical direction for shallow and deep-water problems. The fluid velocity profile is finite sum of coefficients depending on space and time multiplied by a weighting function. It should be noted that in GN theory, the flow is rotational. In this study, GN numerical simulations of initial Gaussian hump are compared with Fourier series semi-analytical solutions of the linearized shallow water equations. The comparison reveals that satisfactory agreement exists between the numerical simulation and the analytical solution of the overall free surface sloshing patterns. The resonant free surface motions driven by an initial Gaussian disturbance are obtained by Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of the free surface elevation time history components. Numerically predicted velocity vectors and magnitude contours for the free surface patterns indicate that interaction of Gaussian hump with its container has localized effect. The result of this sloshing is applicable to the design of stable liquefied oil containers in tankers and offshore platforms.

Keywords: fluid-structure interactions, free surface sloshing, Gaussian hump, Green-Naghdi equations, numerical predictions

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1688 Classification of Small Towns: Three Methodological Approaches and Their Results

Authors: Jerzy Banski

Abstract:

Small towns represent a key element of settlement structure and serve a number of important functions associated with the servicing of rural areas that surround them. It is in light of this that scientific studies have paid considerable attention to the functional structure of centers of this kind, as well as the relationships with both surrounding rural areas and other urban centers. But a preliminary to such research has typically involved attempts at classifying the urban centers themselves, with this also assisting with the planning and shaping of development policy on different spatial scales. The purpose of the work is to test out the methods underpinning three different classifications of small urban centers, as well as to offer a preliminary interpretation of the outcomes obtained. Research took in 722 settlement units in Poland, granted town rights and populated by fewer than 20,000 inhabitants. A morphologically-based classification making reference to the database of topographic objects as regards land cover within the administrative boundaries of towns and cities was carried out, and it proved possible to distinguish the categories of “housing-estate”, industrial and R&R towns, as well as towns characterized by dichotomy. Equally, a functional/morphological approach taken with the same database allowed for the identification – via an alternative method – of three main categories of small towns (i.e., the monofunctional, multifunctional or oligo functional), which could then be described in far greater detail. A third, multi-criterion classification made simultaneous reference to the conditioning of a structural, a location-related, and an administrative hierarchy-related nature, allowing for distinctions to be drawn between small towns in 9 different categories. The results obtained allow for multifaceted analysis and interpretation of the geographical differentiation characterizing the distribution of Poland’s urban centers across space in the country.

Keywords: small towns, classification, local planning, Poland

Procedia PDF Downloads 87
1687 The Hidden Role of Interest Rate Risks in Carry Trades

Authors: Jingwen Shi, Qi Wu

Abstract:

We study the role played interest rate risk in carry trade return in order to understand the forward premium puzzle. In this study, our goal is to investigate to what extent carry trade return is indeed due to compensation for risk taking and, more important, to reveal the nature of these risks. Using option data not only on exchange rates but also on interest rate swaps (swaptions), our first finding is that, besides the consensus currency risks, interest rate risks also contribute a non-negligible portion to the carry trade return. What strikes us is our second finding. We find that large downside risks of future exchange rate movements are, in fact, priced significantly in option market on interest rates. The role played by interest rate risk differs structurally from the currency risk. There is a unique premium associated with interest rate risk, though seemingly small in size, which compensates the tail risks, the left tail to be precise. On the technical front, our study relies on accurately retrieving implied distributions from currency options and interest rate swaptions simultaneously, especially the tail components of the two. For this purpose, our major modeling work is to build a new international asset pricing model where we use an orthogonal setup for pricing kernels and specify non-Gaussian dynamics in order to capture three sets of option skew accurately and consistently across currency options and interest rate swaptions, domestic and foreign, within one model. Our results open a door for studying forward premium anomaly through implied information from interest rate derivative market.

Keywords: carry trade, forward premium anomaly, FX option, interest rate swaption, implied volatility skew, uncovered interest rate parity

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1686 Exploring Hydrogen Embrittlement and Fatigue Crack Growth in API 5L X52 Steel Pipeline Under Cyclic Internal Pressure

Authors: Omar Bouledroua, Djamel Zelmati, Zahreddine Hafsi, Milos B. Djukic

Abstract:

Transporting hydrogen gas through the existing natural gas pipeline network offers an efficient solution for energy storage and conveyance. Hydrogen generated from excess renewable electricity can be conveyed through the API 5L steel-made pipelines that already exist. In recent years, there has been a growing demand for the transportation of hydrogen through existing gas pipelines. Therefore, numerical and experimental tests are required to verify and ensure the mechanical integrity of the API 5L steel pipelines that will be used for pressurized hydrogen transportation. Internal pressure loading is likely to accelerate hydrogen diffusion through the internal pipe wall and consequently accentuate the hydrogen embrittlement of steel pipelines. Furthermore, pre-cracked pipelines are susceptible to quick failure, mainly under a time-dependent cyclic pressure loading that drives fatigue crack propagation. Meanwhile, after several loading cycles, the initial cracks will propagate to a critical size. At this point, the remaining service life of the pipeline can be estimated, and inspection intervals can be determined. This paper focuses on the hydrogen embrittlement of API 5L steel-made pipeline under cyclic pressure loading. Pressurized hydrogen gas is transported through a network of pipelines where demands at consumption nodes vary periodically. The resulting pressure profile over time is considered a cyclic loading on the internal wall of a pre-cracked pipeline made of API 5L steel-grade material. Numerical modeling has allowed the prediction of fatigue crack evolution and estimation of the remaining service life of the pipeline. The developed methodology in this paper is based on the ASME B31.12 standard, which outlines the guidelines for hydrogen pipelines.

Keywords: hydrogen embrittlement, pipelines, transient flow, cyclic pressure, fatigue crack growth

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1685 Effects of Poor Job Performance Practices on the Job Satisfaction of Workers

Authors: Prakash Singh, Thembinkosi Twalo

Abstract:

The sustainability of the Buffalo City Metropolitan Municipality (BCMM), in South Africa, is being threatened by the reported cases of poor administration, weak management of resources, inappropriate job performance, and inappropriate job behaviour of some of the workers. Since the structural-functionalists assume that formal education is a solution to societal challenges, it therefore means that the BCMM should not be experiencing this threat since many of its workers have various levels of formal education. Consequently, this study using the mixed method research approach, set out to investigate the paradoxical co-existence of inappropriate job behaviour and performance with formal education at the BCMM. Considering the impact of human factors in the labour process, this study draws attention to the divergent objectives of skill and skill bearer, with the application of knowledge subject to the knowledge bearer’s motives, will, attitudes, ethics and values. Consequently, inappropriate job behaviour and performance practices could be due to numerous factors such as lack of the necessary capabilities or refusal to apply what has been learnt due to racial or other prejudices. The role of the human factor in the labour process is a serious omission in human capital theory, which regards schooling as the only factor contributing to the ability to do a job. For this reason this study’s theoretical framework is an amalgamation of the four theories - human capital, social capital, cultural capital, and reputation capital – in an effort to obtain a broader view of the factors that shape job behaviour and performance. Since it has been established that human nature plays a crucial role in how workers undertake their responsibilities, it is important that this be taken into consideration in the BCMM’s monitoring and evaluation of the workers’ job performance practices. Hence, this exploratory study brings to the fore, the effects of poor job performance practices on the job satisfaction of workers.

Keywords: human capital, poor job performance practices, service delivery, workers’ job satisfaction

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1684 Evaluation of Effectiveness of Three Common Equine Thrush Treatments

Authors: A. S. Strait, J. A. Bryk-Lucy, L. M. Ritchie

Abstract:

Thrush is a common disease of ungulates primarily affecting the frog and sulci, caused by the anaerobic bacteria Fusobacterium necrophorum. Thrush accounts for approximately 45.0% of hoof disorders in horses. Prevention and treatment of thrush are essential to prevent horses from developing severe infections and becoming lame. Proper knowledge of hoof care and thrush treatments is crucial to avoid financial costs, unsoundness and lost training time. Research on the effectiveness of numerous commercial and homemade thrush treatments is limited in the equine industry. The objective of this study was to compare the effectiveness of three common thrush treatments for horses: weekly application of Thrush Buster, daily dilute bleach solution spray, or Metronidazole pastes every other day. Cases of thrush diagnosed by a veterinarian or veterinarian-trained researcher were given a score, from 0 to 4, based on the severity of the thrush in each hoof (n=59) and randomly assigned a treatment. Cases were rescored each week of the three-week treatment, and the final and initial scores were compared to determine effectiveness. The thrush treatments were compared with Thrush Buster as the reference at a significance level of α=.05. Binomial Logistic Regression Modeling was performed, finding that the odds of a hoof treated with Metronidazole to be thrush-free was 6.1 times greater than a hoof treated with Thrush Buster (p=0.001), while the odds of a hoof that was treated with bleach to be thrush-free was only 0.97 times greater than a hoof treated with Thrush Buster (p=0.970), after adjustment for treatment week. Of the three treatments utilized in this study, Metronidazole paste applied to the affected areas every other day was the most effective treatment for thrush in horses. There are many other thrush remedies available, and further research is warranted to determine the efficacy of additional treatment options.

Keywords: fusobacterium necrophorum, thrush, equine, horse, lameness

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1683 Forecast of the Small Wind Turbines Sales with Replacement Purchases and with or without Account of Price Changes

Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

Abstract:

The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second –95,3%.

Keywords: bass model, generalized bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States

Procedia PDF Downloads 348