Search results for: outage probability

Authors: Tejasvi Parupudi, Mochen Li, Lakshya Mittal, Ignacio G. Camarillo, Raji Sundararajan

Abstract:

With breast cancer becoming a global pandemic, it is very important to assess a woman’s risk profile accurately in a timely manner. Providing an estimate of the risk of developing breast cancer to a woman gives her an opportunity to consider options to decrease this risk. Women at low risk may be suggested yearly screenings whereas women with a high risk of developing breast cancer would be candidates for aggressive surveillance. Fortunately, there is a set of risk factors that are used to predict the probability of a woman being diagnosed with breast cancer in the future. Studying risk factors and understanding how they correlate to cancer is important for early diagnosis, prevention and reducing mortality rates. The effect of crucial risk factors among black and white women was compared in this study. The various risk factors analyzed include breast density, age, cancer in a first-degree relative, menopausal status, body mass index (BMI) and prior breast cancer diagnosis, etc. Breast density, age at first full-term birth and BMI were utilized in this study as important risk factors for the comparison of incidence rates between women of black and white races in the USA. Understanding the differences could lead to the development of solutions to reduce disparity in mortality rates among black women by improving overall access to care.

Keywords: big data, breast cancer, risk factors, incidence rates, mortality, race

Procedia PDF Downloads 253

Authors: Chenyu Huang, Minrong Cui, Hua Fang, Luqing Zhang, Yunlong Yu

Abstract:

The emergence and spread of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) have become a pressing issue in global agricultural production. However, understanding how these ARGs spread across different spatial scales, especially when exposed to both pesticides and antibiotics, has remained a challenge. Here, metagenomic assembly and binning methodologies were used to determine the mechanism of ARG propagation within soil-lettuce systems exposed to both fungicides and antibiotics. The results of our study showed that the presence of fungicide and antibiotic stresses had a significant impact on certain bacterial communities. Notably, we observed that ARGs were primarily transferred from the soil to the plant through plasmids. The selective pressure exerted by fungicides and antibiotics contributed to an increase in unique ARGs present on lettuce leaves. Moreover, ARGs located on chromosomes and plasmids followed different transmission patterns. The presence of diverse selective pressures, a result of compound treatments involving antibiotics and fungicides, amplifies this phenomenon. Consequently, there is a higher probability of bacteria developing multi-antibiotic resistance under the combined pressure of fungicides and antibiotics. In summary, our findings highlight that combined fungicide and antibiotic treatments are more likely to drive the acquisition of ARGs within the soil-plant system and may increase the risk of human ingestion.

Keywords: soil-lettuce system, fungicide, antibiotic, ARG, transmission

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Tommaso Picciafuoco, Corrado Corradini

Abstract:

A considerable part of rainfall data to be used in the hydrological practice is available in aggregated form within constant time intervals. This can produce undesirable effects, like the underestimate of the annual maximum rainfall depth, Hd, associated with a given duration, d, that is the basic quantity in the development of rainfall depth-duration-frequency relationships and in determining if climate change is producing effects on extreme event intensities and frequencies. The errors in the evaluation of Hd from data characterized by a coarse temporal aggregation, ta, and a procedure to reduce the non-homogeneity of the Hd series are here investigated. Our results indicate that: 1) in the worst conditions, for d=ta, the estimation of a single Hd value can be affected by an underestimation error up to 50%, while the average underestimation error for a series with at least 15-20 Hd values, is less than or equal to 16.7%; 2) the underestimation error values follow an exponential probability density function; 3) each very long time series of Hd contains many underestimated values; 4) relationships between the non-dimensional ratio ta/d and the average underestimate of Hd, derived from continuous rainfall data observed in many stations of Central Italy, may overcome this issue; 5) these equations should allow to improve the Hd estimates and the associated depth-duration-frequency curves at least in areas with similar climatic conditions.

Keywords: central Italy, extreme events, rainfall data, underestimation errors

Procedia PDF Downloads 165

Authors: Joshua Paul Steimel, Michael Pappas, Ethan Hall

Abstract:

Particle-particle interactions are critical in determining the state of an active matter system. Unique and ubiquitous non-equilibrium behavior like swarming, vortexing, spiraling, and much more is governed by interactions between active units or particles. In hybrid active-passive matter systems, the attraction between spinning active units in a 2D monolayer of passive particles is controlled by the mechanical behavior of the passive monolayer. We demonstrate here that the range and dynamics of this attraction can be controlled by changing the composition of the passive monolayer by adding dopant passive particles. These dopant passive particles effectively pin the movement of dislocation motion in the passive media and reduce the probability of defect motion required to erode the bridge of passive particles between active spinners, thus reducing the range of attraction. Additionally, by adding an out of plane component to the magnetic moment and creating a top-like motion a short range repulsion emerges between the top-like particle. At inter-top distances less than four particle diameters apart, the tops repel but beyond that, distance attract up to 13 particle diameters apart. The tops were also able to locally and transiently anneal the passive monolayer. Thus we demonstrate that by tuning several parameters of the hybrid active matter system, one can observe very different emergent behavior.

Keywords: active matter, colloids, ferromagnetic, annealing

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: Clarinda V. Nhangumbe, Ercília Sousa

Abstract:

Weather Derivatives are financial instruments used to cover non-catastrophic weather events and can be expressed in the form of standard or plain vanilla products, structured or exotics products. The underlying asset, in this case, is the weather index, such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind, and snowfall. The complexity of the Weather Derivatives structure shows the weakness of the Black Scholes framework. Therefore, under the risk-neutral probability measure, the option price of a weather contract can be given as a unique solution of a two-dimensional partial differential equation (parabolic in one direction and hyperbolic in other directions), with an initial condition and subjected to adequate boundary conditions. To calculate the price of the option, one can use numerical methods such as the Monte Carlo simulations and implicit finite difference schemes conjugated with Semi-Lagrangian methods. This paper is proposed two explicit methods, namely, first-order upwind in the hyperbolic direction combined with Lax-Wendroff in the parabolic direction and first-order upwind in the hyperbolic direction combined with second-order upwind in the parabolic direction. One of the advantages of these methods is the fact that they take into consideration the boundary conditions obtained from the financial interpretation and deal efficiently with the different choices of the convection coefficients.

Keywords: incomplete markets, numerical methods, partial differential equations, stochastic process, weather derivatives

Procedia PDF Downloads 68

Authors: Nina N. Serdar, Jelena R. Pejović

Abstract:

This paper presents seismic risk assessment of two bridge structure, based on the probabilistic performance-based seismic assessment methodology. Both investigated bridges are tree span continuous RC curved bridges with the difference in column shapes. First bridge (type A) has a wall-type pier and second (type B) has a two-column bent with circular columns. Bridges are designed according to European standards: EN 1991-2, EN1992-1-1 and EN 1998-2. Aim of the performed analysis is to compare seismic behavior of these two structures and to detect the influence of column shapes on the seismic response. Seismic risk assessment is carried out by obtaining demand fragility curves. Non-linear model was constructed and time-history analysis was performed using thirty five pairs of horizontal ground motions selected to match site specific hazard. In performance based analysis, peak column drift ratio (CDR) was selected as engineering demand parameter (EDP). For seismic intensity measure (IM) spectral displacement was selected. Demand fragility curves that give probability of exceedance of certain value for chosen EDP were constructed and based on them conclusions were made.

Keywords: RC curved bridge, demand fragility curve, wall type column, nonlinear time-history analysis, circular column

Procedia PDF Downloads 313

Authors: Raghunath Arnab

Abstract:

The two-phase sampling which is also known as double sampling was introduced in 1938. In two-phase sampling, samples are selected in phases. In the first phase, a relatively large sample of size is selected by some suitable sampling design and only information on the auxiliary variable is collected. During the second phase, a sample of size is selected either from, the sample selected in the first phase or from the entire population by using a suitable sampling design and information regarding the study and auxiliary variable is collected. Evidently, two phase sampling is useful if the auxiliary information is relatively easy and cheaper to collect than the study variable as well as if the strength of the relationship between the variables and is high. If the sample is selected in more than two phases, the resulting sampling design is called a multi-phase sampling. In this article we will consider how one can use data collected at the first phase sampling at the stages of estimation of the parameter, stratification, selection of sample and their combinations in the second phase in a unified setup applicable to any sampling design and wider classes of estimators. The problem of the estimation of variance will also be considered. The variance of estimator is essential for estimating precision of the survey estimates, calculation of confidence intervals, determination of the optimal sample sizes and for testing of hypotheses amongst others. Although, the variance is a non-negative quantity but its estimators may not be non-negative. If the estimator of variance is negative, then it cannot be used for estimation of confidence intervals, testing of hypothesis or measure of sampling error. The non-negativity properties of the variance estimators will also be studied in details.

Keywords: auxiliary information, two-phase sampling, varying probability sampling, unbiased estimators

Procedia PDF Downloads 565

Authors: R. Gharari, N. Kojouri, R. Hosseini Aghdam, E. Alibeigi, B. Salmasian

Abstract:

In this research, the WWER1000/V446 (a PWR Russian type reactor) is chosen as the case study. It is assumed that radioactive materials that release into the environment are more than allowable limit due to a complete failure of the ventilation system (reactor stack). In the following, the HOTSPOT and the RASCAL computational codes have been used and coupled with a developed program using MATLAB software to evaluate Total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) and cancer risk according to the BEIR equations for various human organs. In addition, effects of the containment spray system and climate conditions on the TEDE have been investigated. According to the obtained results, there is an inverse correlation between the received dose and the wind speed; the amount of the TEDE for wind speed 2 m/s and is more than wind speed for 14 m/s during the class A of the climate (2.168 and 0.444 mSv, respectively). Also, containment spray system can effect and reduce the amount of the fission products and TEDE. Furthermore, the probability of the cancer risk for women is more than men, and for children is more than adults. In addition, a specific emergency zonal planning is proposed. Results are promising in which the site selection of the WWER1000/V446 were considered safe for the public in this situation.

Keywords: TEDE, total effective dose equivalent, RASCAL and HOTSPOT codes, BEIR equations, cancer risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Pandega Gama Mahardika, Muhammad Rifki Al Iksan, Datuk Fachrul Razy

Abstract:

Oil And Gas Tanker Driver is a high-risk jobdesc. drivers drive with sleep circadian rhythm disturbances. Therefore, FAMOUS (Fatigue Management Online Ultimate System) conducted a diagnostic test on the effectiveness and accuracy of the Psychomotor vigilance test (PVT) in the field to capture the fatigue level of Oil And Gas Tanker Driver. Fatigue examination with the PVP method for 3 minutes using the Pertamina FAMOUS system (Fatigue Management Online Ultimate System). The research sample was Oil And Gas Tanker Driver Elnusa petrofin drivers as many as 2205 people. PVT is categorical data that states a driver has a low or high fatigue level. The quality of sleep at home was recorded by filling in a score of 1 = not well, 2 = not well, 3 = well, per person. A total of 1852 (84%) driver had a low fatigue level, while 353 (16%) driver had a high fatigue level. Poor sleep quality was experienced by 68 (79%) driver who had a high fatigue level. Oil And Gas Tanker Driver who slept soundly at home as many as 1804 (87%) had a low fatigue level. The correlation coefficient of sleep quality home and fatigue level is significant because it shows a probability value of 0.00 (p <5%). Fatigue level can be diagnosed through examining sleep quality, using FAMOUS Program for occupational medicine, particularly in the oil and gas sector.

Keywords: psychomotor vigilance test, fatigue, sleep, oil and gas tanker driver drivers, pertamina FAMOUS

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: P. Mambanga, Goon, L. O. Amusa

Abstract:

The purpose of the study was to investigate the socio-cultural factors hindering sport participation among female students in the Centre for Biokinetics, Recreation and Sport Science, University of Venda. A descriptive survey of 100 female student selected by simple random sampling was used and utilises the close ended questionnaire designed in a likert format was use for data collection. Face and content validity was employed in which the supervisor went through the instrument and correct and accept it thus checking the validity of the instrument. The test-retest approach was used to test the reliability of the instrument. Ethical considerations were ensured and confidentiality respected. Data was collected and presented in tables and results interpreted. Chi square which is a measure of non-parametric investigation was employed in order to analyse the observed and expected scores, with the probability value was set at 0.05 levels of significance on a two-tailed test of the hypotheses formulated for the study. Findings of the study established significant socio-cultural factors that hinder female sport participation among female students in the Centre for Biokinetics, Recreation and Sport Science. The study concluded that the low level participation of female students at the University of Venda might be as a result of socio-cultural factors.

Keywords: female students, sport participation, University of Venda, biokinetic

Procedia PDF Downloads 499

Authors: Flavio Cordeiro Fontanella, Asla Medeiros e Sá, Moacyr Alvim Horta Barbosa da Silva

Abstract:

In the present work, we analyse the performance of football results forecasting models. In order to do so, we have performed the data collection from eight different forecasting models during the 2021 Brazilian football season. First, we guide the analysis through visual representations of the data, designed to highlight the most prominent features and enhance the interpretation of differences and similarities between the models. We propose using a 2-simplex triangle to investigate visual patterns from the results forecasting models. Next, we compute the expected points for every team playing in the championship and compare them to the final league standings, revealing interesting contrasts between actual to expected performances. Then, we evaluate forecasts’ accuracy using the Ranked Probability Score (RPS); models comparison accounts for tiny scale differences that may become consistent in time. Finally, we observe that the Wisdom of Crowds principle can be appropriately applied in the context, driving into a discussion of results forecasts usage in practice. This paper’s primary goal is to encourage football forecasts’ performance discussion. We hope to accomplish it by presenting appropriate criteria and easy-to-understand visual representations that can point out the relevant factors of the subject.

Keywords: accuracy evaluation, Brazilian championship, football results forecasts, forecasting models, visual analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Jurica Hižak

Abstract:

Getting to know the agents, i.e., identifying the free riders in a population, can be considered one of the main challenges in establishing cooperation. An ordinary memory-one agent such as Tit-for-tat may learn “who is who” in the population through direct interactions. Past experiences serve them as a landmark to know with whom to cooperate and against whom to retaliate in the next encounter. However, this kind of learning is risky and expensive. A cheaper and less painful way to detect free riders may be achieved by gossiping. For this reason, as part of this research, a special type of Tit-for-tat agent was designed – a “Gossip-Tit-for-tat” agent that can share data with other agents of its kind. The performances of both strategies, ordinary Tit-for-tat and Gossip-Tit-for-tat, against Always-defect have been compared in the finite-game framework of the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma via the Moran process. Agents were able to move in a random-walk fashion, and they were programmed to play Prisoner’s Dilemma each time they met. Moreover, at each step, one randomly selected individual was eliminated, and one individual was reproduced in accordance with the Moran process of selection. In this way, the size of the population always remained the same. Agents were selected for reproduction via the roulette wheel rule, i.e., proportionally to the relative fitness of the strategy. The absorption probability was calculated after the population had been absorbed completely by cooperators, which means that all the states have been occupied and all of the transition probabilities have been determined. It was shown that gossip increases absorption probabilities and therefore enhances the evolution of cooperation in the population.

Keywords: cooperation, gossip, indirect reciprocity, Moran process, prisoner’s dilemma, tit-for-tat

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Yina F. Muñoz, Alexander Paz, Hanns De La Fuente-Mella, Joaquin V. Fariña, Guilherme M. Sales

Abstract:

The primary approach for estimating bridge deterioration uses Markov-chain models and regression analysis. Traditional Markov models have problems in estimating the required transition probabilities when a small sample size is used. Often, reliable bridge data have not been taken over large periods, thus large data sets may not be available. This study presents an important change to the traditional approach by using the Small Data Method to estimate transition probabilities. The results illustrate that the Small Data Method and traditional approach both provide similar estimates; however, the former method provides results that are more conservative. That is, Small Data Method provided slightly lower than expected bridge condition ratings compared with the traditional approach. Considering that bridges are critical infrastructures, the Small Data Method, which uses more information and provides more conservative estimates, may be more appropriate when the available sample size is small. In addition, regression analysis was used to calculate bridge deterioration. Condition ratings were determined for bridge groups, and the best regression model was selected for each group. The results obtained were very similar to those obtained when using Markov chains; however, it is desirable to use more data for better results.

Keywords: concrete bridges, deterioration, Markov chains, probability matrix

Procedia PDF Downloads 321

Authors: Kopila Shrestha

Abstract:

Adolescent sexual reproductive health is one of the most important issues in the world. Reproductive ability is taking place at an earlier age and adolescents are indulging in risk taking behaviors day by day. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted in Kathmandu valley to assess the knowledge regarding sexual and reproductive health among adolescent. Total of 200 respondents were selected through non-probability convenient sampling technique. Self-administered written questionnaires using semi-structured questions were used. The collected data were analyzed by using descriptive statistics such as frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation and inferential statistics such as Chi-square test. The findings revealed that most of the respondents had adequate knowledge regarding transmission and protection of HIV/AIDs and STIs but still some respondents had a misconception regarding it. Few respondents had knowledge regarding legal age for marriage and the minimum age for first child bearing. The statistical analysis revealed that the total mean knowledge score with standard deviation was 45.02±8.674. Nearly half of the respondents (49.5%) had a moderate level of knowledge, followed by an inadequate level of knowledge 29.5% and adequate level of knowledge 21.0% regarding sexual and reproductive health. There was significant association of level of knowledge with area of residence (p-value .002) but no association with age (p-value .067), sex (p-value .999), religion (p-value .082) and ethnicity (p-value .114). Nearly half of the participants possess some knowledge about sexual and reproductive health but still effective educational intervention is required in higher secondary school to encourage more sensible and healthy behaviour.

Keywords: adolescents, higher secondary school, knowledge, sexual and reproductive health

Procedia PDF Downloads 253

Authors: Noora Al-Shanfari, M. Mazharul Islam

Abstract:

The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a fundamental approach for analyzing survival data in the presence of competing risks, which estimates the marginal probability for each competing event. Parametric modeling of CIF has the advantage of fitting various shapes of CIF and estimates the impact of covariates with maximum efficiency. To calculate the total CIF's covariate influence using a parametric model., it is essential to parametrize the baseline of the CIF. As the CIF is an improper function by nature, it is necessary to utilize an improper distribution when applying parametric models. The Gompertz distribution, which is an improper distribution, is limited in its applicability as it only accounts for monotone hazard shapes. The generalized Gompertz distribution, however, can adapt to a wider range of hazard shapes, including unimodal, bathtub, and monotonic increasing or decreasing hazard shapes. In this paper, the generalized Gompertz distribution is used to parametrize the baseline of the CIF, and the parameters of the proposed model are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. The proposed model is compared with the existing Gompertz model using the Akaike information criterion. Appropriate statistical test procedures and model-fitting criteria will be used to test the adequacy of the model. Both models are applied to the ‘colon’ dataset, which is available in the “biostat3” package in R.

Keywords: competing risks, cumulative incidence function, improper distribution, parametric modeling, survival analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Sai Hung Cheung, Zhe Shao

Abstract:

Recent earthquake-induced tsunamis in Padang, 2004 and Tohoku, 2011 brought huge losses of lives and properties. Maintaining vertical evacuation systems is the most crucial strategy to effectively reduce casualty during the tsunami event. Thus, it is of our great interest to quantify the risk to structural dynamic systems due to earthquake-induced tsunamis. Despite continuous advancement in computational simulation of the tsunami and wave-structure interaction modeling, it still remains computationally challenging to evaluate the reliability (or its complement failure probability) of a structural dynamic system when uncertainties related to the system and its modeling are taken into account. The failure of the structure in a tsunami-wave-structural system is defined as any response quantities of the system exceeding specified thresholds during the time when the structure is subjected to dynamic wave impact due to earthquake-induced tsunamis. In this paper, an approach based on a novel integration of the Subset Simulation algorithm and a recently proposed moving least squares response surface approach for stochastic sampling is proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is discussed by comparing its results with those obtained from the Subset Simulation algorithm without using the response surface approach.

Keywords: response surface model, subset simulation, structural reliability, Tsunami risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: Manoj K. Sharma, Neha Grover

Abstract:

Dynamical cluster decay model (DCM) is applied to study the decay mechanism of 118Xe* nucleus in reference to recent data on 28Si + 90Zr → 118Xe* reaction, as an extension of our previous work on the dynamics of 112Xe* nucleus. It is relevant to mention here that DCM is based on collective clusterization approach, where emission probability of different decay paths such as evaporation residue (ER), intermediate mass fragments (IMF) and fission etc. is worked out on parallel scale. Calculations have been done over a wide range of center of mass energies with Ec.m. = 65 - 92 MeV. The evaporation residue (ER) cross-sections of 118Xe* compound nucleus are fitted in reference to available data, using spherical and quadrupole (β2) deformed choice of decaying fragments within the optimum orientations approach. It may be noted that our calculated cross-sections find decent agreement with experimental data and hence provide an opportunity to analyze the exclusive role of deformations in view of fragmentation behavior of 118Xe* nucleus. The possible contribution of IMF fragments is worked out and an extensive effort is being made to analyze the role of excitation energy, angular momentum, diffuseness parameter and level density parameter to have better understanding of the decay patterns governed in the dynamics of 28Si + 90Zr → 118Xe* reaction.

Keywords: cross-sections, deformations, fragmentation, angular momentum

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Kalandi Charan Pradhan

Abstract:

In this study, we investigate does weather variation determine temporary labour migration using 210 sample households from six Semi-Arid Tropic (SAT) villages for the period of 2005-2014 in India. The study has made an attempt to examine how households use temporary labour migration as a coping mechanism to minimise the risk rather than maximize the utility of the households. The study employs panel Logit regression model to predict the probability of household having at least one temporary labour migrant. As per as econometrics result, it is found that along with demographic and socioeconomic factors; weather variation plays an important role to determine the decision of migration at household level. In order to capture the weather variation, the study uses mean crop yield deviation over the study periods. Based on the random effect logit regression result, the study found that there is a concave relationship between weather variation and decision of temporary labour migration. This argument supports the theory of New Economics of Labour Migration (NELM), which highlights the decision of labour migration not only maximise the households’ utility but it helps to minimise the risks.

Keywords: temporary migration, socioeconomic factors, weather variation, crop yield, logit estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 194

Authors: Amal Ait El Djoudi

Abstract:

A thermodynamical model of coexisting hadronic and quark–gluon plasma (QGP) phases is used to study the thermally driven deconfining phase transition occurring between the two phases. A color singlet partition function is calculated for the QGP phase with two massless quarks, as in our previous work, but now the finite extensions of the hadrons are taken into account in the equation of state of the hadronic phase. In the present work, the finite-size effects on the system are examined by probing the behavior of some thermodynamic quantities, called response functions, as order parameter, energy density and their derivatives, on a range of temperature around the transition at different volumes. It turns out that the finiteness of the system size has as effects the rounding of the transition and the smearing of all the singularities occurring in the thermodynamic limit, and the additional finite-size effect introduced by the requirement of exact color-singletness involves a shift of the transition point. This shift as well as the smearing of the transition region and the maxima of both susceptibility and specific heat show a scaling behavior with the volume characterized by scaling exponents. Another striking result is the large similarity noted between the behavior of these response functions and that of the cumulants of the probability density. This similarity is worked to try to extract information concerning the occurring phase transition.

Keywords: equation of state, thermodynamics, deconfining phase transition, quark–gluon plasma (QGP)

Procedia PDF Downloads 398

Authors: Maha Salah Abdullah Ismail, Mahmoud M. Alsagheir, Mohammed Salah Abd Allah

Abstract:

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is characterized by permeability pulmonary edema and refractory hypoxemia. Lung-protective ventilation is still the key of better outcome in ARDS. Prone position reduces the trans-pulmonary pressure gradient, recruiting collapsed regions of the lung without increasing airway pressure or hyperinflation. Prone ventilation showed improved oxygenation and improved outcomes in severe hypoxemic patients with ARDS. This study evaluates the effect of prone positioning on mechanically ventilated patients with ARDS. A quasi-experimental design was carried out at Critical Care Units, on 60 patients. Two tools were utilized to collect data; Socio demographic, medical and clinical outcomes data sheet. Results of the present study indicated that prone position improves oxygenation in patients with severe respiratory distress syndrome. The study recommended that use prone position in patients with severe ARDS, as early as possible and for long sessions. Also, replication of this study on larger probability sample at the different geographical location is highly recommended.

Keywords: acute respiratory distress syndrome, critical care, mechanical ventilation, prone position

Procedia PDF Downloads 510

Authors: Haowen Xi

Abstract:

We propose and solve exactly a class of non-linear generalization of the Black-Scholes process of stochastic differential equations describing price bubble and crashes dynamics. As a result of nonlinear positive feedback, the faster-than-exponential price positive growth (bubble forming) and negative price growth (crash forming) are found to be the power-law finite-time singularity in which bubbles and crashes price formation ending at finite critical time tc. While most literature on the market bubble and crash process focuses on the nonlinear positive feedback mechanism aspect, very few studies concern the noise level on the same process. The present work adds to the market bubble and crashes literature by studying the external sources noise influence on the critical time tc of the bubble forming and crashes forming. Two main results will be discussed: (1) the analytical expression of expected value of the critical time is found and unexpected critical slowing down due to the coupling external noise is predicted; (2) numerical simulations of the nonlinear stochastic equation is presented, and the probability distribution of Prob(tc) is found to be the inverse gamma function.

Keywords: bubble, crash, finite-time-singular, numerical simulation, price dynamics, stochastic differential equations

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Abdulbaset Saad, Adel Younis, Zuomin Dong

Abstract:

For design optimization with high-dimensional expensive problems, an effective and efficient optimization methodology is desired. This work proposes a series of modification to the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm for solving computation Intensive Black-Box Problems. The proposed methodology is called Radial Basis Meta-Model Algorithm Assisted Differential Evolutionary (RBF-DE), which is a global optimization algorithm based on the meta-modeling techniques. A meta-modeling assisted DE is proposed to solve computationally expensive optimization problems. The Radial Basis Function (RBF) model is used as a surrogate model to approximate the expensive objective function, while DE employs a mechanism to dynamically select the best performing combination of parameters such as differential rate, cross over probability, and population size. The proposed algorithm is tested on benchmark functions and real life practical applications and problems. The test results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is promising and performs well compared to other optimization algorithms. The proposed algorithm is capable of converging to acceptable and good solutions in terms of accuracy, number of evaluations, and time needed to converge.

Keywords: differential evolution, engineering design, expensive computations, meta-modeling, radial basis function, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 366

Authors: Murray Olowa

Abstract:

This article examines the studies investigating the Mathematical Knowledge for Teaching (MKT) of secondary preservice teachers in Papua New Guinea based on probabilities. This research was conducted due to the continuous issues faced in the country in both primary and secondary education, like changes in curriculum, emphasis on mathematics and science education, and a decline in mathematics performance. Moreover, the mathematics curriculum doesn’t capture Pedagogical Content Knowledge (PCK) or Subject Matter Knowledge (SMK). The two main domains that have been identified are SMK and PCK, which have been further sub-divided into Common Content Knowledge (CCK), Specialised Content Knowledge (SCK) and Horizon Content Knowledge (HCK), and Knowledge of Content and Students (KCS), Knowledge of Content and Teaching (KCT) and Knowledge of Content and Curriculum (KCC), respectively. The data collected from 15-_year-_ ones and 15-_year-_fours conducted at St Peter Chanel Secondary Teachers College revealed that there is no significant difference in subject matter knowledge between year one and year four since the P-value of 0.22>0.05. However, it was revealed that year fours have higher pedagogical content knowledge than year one since P-value was 0.007<0.05. Finally, the research has proven that year fours have higher MKT than year one. This difference occurred due to final year preservice teachers’ hard work and engagement in mathematics curriculum and teaching practice.

Keywords: mathematical knowledge for teaching, subject matter knowledge, pedagogical content knowledge, Papua New Guinea, preservice teachers, probability

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: Mokhtar Kouki Inès Rekik

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the assessment of the air pollution and morbidity relationship in Tunisia. Air pollution is measured by ozone air concentration and the morbidity is measured by the number of respiratory-related restricted activity days during the 2-week period prior to the interview. Socioeconomic data are also collected in order to adjust for any confounding covariates. Our sample is composed by 407 Tunisian respondents; 44.7% are women, the average age is 35.2, near 69% are living in a house built after the 1980, and 27.8% have reported at least one day of respiratory-related restricted activity. The model consists on the regression of the number of respiratory-related restricted activity days on the air quality measure and the socioeconomic covariates. In order to correct for zero-inflation and heterogeneity, we estimate several models (Poisson, Negative binomial, Zero inflated Poisson, Poisson hurdle, Negative binomial hurdle and finite mixture Poisson models). Bootstrapping and post-stratification techniques are used in order to correct for any sample bias. According to the Akaike information criteria, the hurdle negative binomial model has the greatest goodness of fit. The main result indicates that, after adjusting for socioeconomic data, the ozone concentration increases the probability of positive number of restricted activity days.

Keywords: bootstrapping, hurdle negbin model, overdispersion, ozone concentration, respiratory-related restricted activity days

Procedia PDF Downloads 234

Authors: Nadheer A. Shalash, Abu Zaharin Bin Ahmad

Abstract:

Technological developments in industrial innovations have currently been related to interconnected system assistance and distribution networks. This important in order to enable an electrical load to continue receive power in the event of disconnection of load from the main power grid. This paper represents a method for reliability assessment of interconnected power systems based. The multi-agent system consists of four agents. The first agent was the generator agent to using as connected the generator to the grid depending on the state of the reserve margin and the load demand. The second was a load agent is that located at the load. Meanwhile, the third is so-called "the reverse margin agent" that to limit the reserve margin between 0-25% depend on the load and the unit size generator. In the end, calculation reliability Agent can be calculate expected energy not supplied (EENS), loss of load expectation (LOLE) and the effecting of tie line capacity to determine the risk levels Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) can use to evaluated the reliability indices by using the developed JADE package. The results estimated of the reliability interconnection power systems presented in this paper. The overall reliability of power system can be improved. Thus, the market becomes more concentrated against demand increasing and the generation units were operating in relation to reliability indices.

Keywords: reliability indices, load expectation, reserve margin, daily load, probability, multi-agent system

Procedia PDF Downloads 298

Authors: Eka Yuliana, Siska Shabrina Julyan

Abstract:

The competitive environment and high customer’s churn rate in telecommunication industries lead Indonesian telecommunication companies become strive to offer products with more value. Offering product with more value can encourage customers to keep using the companies product. One of way to retain customer is give a membership card to the customers as practiced by PT. Telkom by giving Telkom Membership Card to PT. Telkom loyal customer. This study aims to determine the influence of Telkom Membership Card customer perceived value on retaining PT. Telkom Indonesia’s customer in 2013-2014 by using quantitative method with causal study. Analythical technique used in this study is Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) to test the causal relationship with 216 owner of Telkom Membership Card in Indonesia. This study conclude that: (i) Customer perceived value on Telkom Membership Card is located in fair value zone, (ii) PT. Telkom efforts in order to retain the customers is classified as good, (iii) Customer perceived value is influencing the effort to retain the customer with the probability value less than 0.05 and level of influence 69%. Based on result of this study, PT. Telkom should (i) Improve Telkom Membership Card’s promotion because not all customer of PT. Telkom have the membership card. (iia) Adding Telkom Membership Card’s benefit such as discount at various merchant (iib) Making call center for member of Telkom Membership Card (iii) PT. Telkom should be ensure availability of their service. (iv) PT. Telkom should make a priority to customer who have telkom membership card and offers a better service.For future research should be use different variables.

Keywords: customer perceived value, customer retention, marketing, relationship marketing

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Hatthaphone Silimanotham, Michael Henry

Abstract:

The effective maintenance of road bridge infrastructure is becoming a widely researched topic in the civil engineering field. Deterioration is one of the main issues in bridge performance, and it is necessary to understand how bridges deteriorate to optimally plan budget allocation for bridge maintenance. In Laos, many bridges are in a deteriorated state, which may affect the performance of the bridge. Due to bridge deterioration, the Ministry of Public Works and Transport is interested in the deterioration model to allocate the budget efficiently and support the bridge maintenance planning. A deterioration model can be used to predict the bridge condition in the future based on the observed behavior in the past. This paper analyzes the available inspection data of road bridges on the road classifications network to build deterioration prediction models for the main bridge type found at the provincial level (concrete slab, concrete girder, and steel truss) using probabilistic deterioration modeling by linear regression method. The analysis targets there has three bridge types in the 18 provinces of Laos and estimates the bridge deterioration rating for evaluating the bridge's remaining life. This research thus considers the relationship between the service period and the bridge condition to represent the probability of bridge condition in the future. The results of the study can be used for a variety of bridge management tasks, including maintenance planning, budgeting, and evaluating bridge assets.

Keywords: deterioration model, bridge condition, bridge management, probabilistic modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt, Apurba Das, Joel Trudell, Keanne Russell

Abstract:

In this presentation, we explore options for mitigating ice-jam flooding along the Athabasca River in western Canada. Not only flood hazard, expressed in this case as the probability of flood depths and extents being exceeded, but also flood risk, in which annual expected damages are calculated. Flood risk is calculated, which allows a cost-benefit analysis to be made so that decisions on the best mitigation options are not based solely on flood hazard but also on the costs related to flood damages and the benefits of mitigation. The river ice model is used to simulate extreme ice-jam flood events with which scenarios are run to determine flood exposure and damages in flood-prone areas along the river. We will concentrate on three mitigation options – the placement of a dike, artificial breakage of the ice cover along the river, the installation of an ice-control structure, and the construction of a reservoir. However, any mitigation option is not totally failsafe. For example, dikes can still be overtopped and breached, and ice jams may still occur in areas of the river where ice covers have been artificially broken up. Hence, for all options, it is recommended that zoning of building developments away from greater flood hazard areas be upheld. Flood mitigation can have a negative effect of giving inhabitants a false sense of security that flooding may not happen again, leading to zoning policies being relaxed. (Text adapted from Lindenschmidt [2022] "Ice Destabilization Study - Phase 2", submitted to the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, Alberta, Canada)

Keywords: ice jam, flood hazard, flood risk river ice modelling, flood risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Youngsun Moon, Yeong-Ju Go, Jong-Soo Choi

Abstract:

Most drones that currently have surveillance/reconnaissance missions are basically equipped with optical equipment, but we also need to use a microphone array to estimate the location of the acoustic source. This can provide additional information in the absence of optical equipment. The purpose of this study is to estimate Direction of Arrival (DOA) based on Time Difference of Arrival (TDOA) estimation of the acoustic source in the drone. The problem is that it is impossible to measure the clear target acoustic source because of the drone noise. To overcome this problem is to separate the drone noise and the target acoustic source using Blind Source Separation(BSS) based on Independent Component Analysis(ICA). ICA can be performed assuming that the drone noise and target acoustic source are independent and each signal has non-gaussianity. For maximized non-gaussianity each signal, we use Negentropy and Kurtosis based on probability theory. As a result, we can improve TDOA estimation and DOA estimation of the target source in the noisy environment. We simulated the performance of the DOA algorithm applying BSS algorithm, and demonstrated the simulation through experiment at the anechoic wind tunnel.

Keywords: aeroacoustics, acoustic source detection, time difference of arrival, direction of arrival, blind source separation, independent component analysis, drone

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Rayhaneh Amooaghaie, Maryam Norouzi

Abstract:

In this study, the effects of nTiO₂ on seed germination and growth of six plant species (wheat, soybean, tomato, canola, cucumber, and lettuce) were evaluated in petri dish (direct exposure) and in soil in a greenhouse experiment (soil exposure). Data demonstrate that under both culture conditions, low or mild concentrations of nTiO₂ either stimulated or had no effect on seed germination, root growth and vegetative biomass while high concentrations had an inhibitory effect. However, results showed that the impacts of nTiO₂ on plant growth in soil were partially consistent with those observed in pure culture. Based on both experiment sets, among above six species, lettuce and canola were the most susceptible and the most tolerant species to nTiO₂ toxicity. However, results revealed the impacts of nTiO₂ on plant growth in soil were less than petri dish exposure probability due to dilution in soil and complexation/aggregation of nTiO₂ that would lead to lower exposure of plants. The high concentrations of nTiO₂ caused significant reductions in fresh and dry weight of aerial parts and root and chlorophyll and carotenoids contents of all species which also coincided with further accumulation of malondialdehyde (MDA). These findings suggest that decreasing growth might be the result of an nTiO₂-induced oxidative stress and disturbance of photosynthesis systems.

Keywords: chlorophyll, lipid peroxidation, nano TiO₂, seed germination

Procedia PDF Downloads 137