Search results for: health risk management

Authors: Nahida Sultana

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Globally, an estimated 58 million people have chronic hepatitis C virus infection, with about 1.5 million new infections occurring per year. The hepatitis C virus is a blood-borne virus, and most infections occur through exposure to blood from unsafe injection practices, unsafe health care, unscreened blood transfusion, injection drug use, and sexual practices that lead to exposure to blood. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) causes chronic infections that mainly affect the liver leading to liver diseases. This study aimed to determine whether there is any significant association between HCV transmission risk factors in relation to genotypes in HCV-infected Bangladeshi patients. After quantification of HCV viral load, 36 samples were randomly selected for HCV genotyping and risk factor measurement. A greater proportion of genotype 1 (p > 0.05) patients (40%) underwent blood transfusion compared to patients (22.6%) with genotype 3 infections. More genotype 1 patient underwent surgery and invasive procedures (20%), and rather than those with genotype 3 patients (16.1%). The history of IDUs (25.8%) and sexual exposure (3.2%) are only prevalent in genotype 3 patients and absent in patients with genotype 1 (p >0.05). There was no significant statistical difference found in HCV transmission risk factors (blood transfusion, IDUs, Surgery& interventions, sexual transmission) between patients infected with genotypes 1 and 3. In HCV infection, genotype may have no relation to transmission risk factors among Bangladeshi patients.

Keywords: HCV genotype, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), HCV viral load, IDUs

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Authors: Wassamon Kun-Amornpong

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When a financial crisis occurs, there will be a law and regulatory reform in order to manage the turmoil and prevent a future crisis. One of the most important regulatory efforts to help cope with systemic risk and a financial crisis is the third version of the Basel Accord. Basel III has introduced some measures and tools (e.g., systemic risk buffer, countercyclical buffer, capital conservation buffer and liquidity risk) in order to mitigate systemic risk. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of these measures in Basel III in adequately addressing the problem of contagious runs that can quickly spread throughout the financial system is questionable. This paper seeks to contribute to the knowledge regarding the role of the Basel Accords in mitigating systemic risk. The research question is to what extent the Basel Accords can help control systemic risk in the financial markets? The paper tackles this question by analysing the concept of systemic risk. It will then examine the weaknesses of the Basel Accords before and after the Global financial crisis in 2008. Finally, it will suggest some possible solutions in order to improve the Basel Accord. The rationale of the study is the fact that academic works on systemic risk and financial crises are largely studied from economic or financial perspective. There is comparatively little research from the legal and regulatory perspective. The finding of the paper is that there are some problems in all of the three pillars of the Basel Accords. With regards to Pillar I, the risk model is excessively complex while the benefits of its complexity are doubtful. Concerning Pillar II, the effectiveness of the risk-based supervision in preventing systemic risk still depends largely upon its design and implementation. Factors such as organizational culture of the regulator and the political context within which the risk-based supervision operates might be a barrier against the success of Pillar II. Meanwhile, Pillar III could not provide adequate market discipline as market participants do not always act in a rational way. In addition, the too-big-to-fail perception reduced the incentives of the market participants to monitor risks. There has been some development in resolution measure (e.g. TLAC and MREL) which might potentially help strengthen the incentive of the market participants to monitor risks. However, those measures have some weaknesses. The paper argues that if the weaknesses in the three pillars are resolved, it can be expected that the Basel Accord could contribute to the mitigation of systemic risk in a more significant way in the future.

Keywords: Basel accords, financial regulation, risk-based supervision, systemic risk

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Authors: Sajjad Baghernezhad

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Meta-heuristic and hybrid algorithms have high adeer in modeling medical problems. In this study, a neural network was used to predict covid-19 among high-risk and low-risk patients. This study was conducted to collect the applied method and its target population consisting of 550 high-risk and low-risk patients from the Kerman University of medical sciences medical center to predict the coronavirus. In this study, the memetic algorithm, which is a combination of a genetic algorithm and a local search algorithm, has been used to update the weights of the neural network and develop the accuracy of the neural network. The initial study showed that the accuracy of the neural network was 88%. After updating the weights, the memetic algorithm increased by 93%. For the proposed model, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictivity value, value/accuracy to 97.4, 92.3, 95.8, 96.2, and 0.918, respectively; for the genetic algorithm model, 87.05, 9.20 7, 89.45, 97.30 and 0.967 and for logistic regression model were 87.40, 95.20, 93.79, 0.87 and 0.916. Based on the findings of this study, neural network models have a lower error rate in the diagnosis of patients based on individual variables and vital signs compared to the regression model. The findings of this study can help planners and health care providers in signing programs and early diagnosis of COVID-19 or Corona.

Keywords: COVID-19, decision support technique, neural network, genetic algorithm, memetic algorithm

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Authors: T. Holecki, J. Wozniak-Holecka, P. Romaniuk

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Due to the highly centralized model of financing health care in Poland, local self-government rarely undertook their own initiatives in the field of public health, particularly health promotion. However, since 2017 the possibility of applying for a subsidy to health policy programs has been allowed, with the additional resources to be retrieved from the National Health Fund, which is the dominant payer in the health system. The amount of subsidy depends on the number of inhabitants in a given unit and ranges about 40% of the total cost of the program. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of newly implemented solutions in financing health policy on the management of public finances, as well as on the activity provided by local self-government in health promotion. An effort to estimate the amount of expenses that both local governments, and the National Health Fund, spent on local health policy programs while implementing the new solutions. The research method is the analysis of financial data obtained from the National Health Fund and from local government units, as well as reports published by the Agency for Health Technology Assessment and Pricing, which holds substantive control over the health policy programs, and releases permission for their implementation. The study was based on a comparative analysis of expenditures on the implementation of health programs in Poland in years 2010-2018. The presentation of the results includes the inclusion of average annual expenditures of local government units per 1 inhabitant, the total number of positively evaluated applications and the percentage share in total expenditures of local governments (16 voivodships areas). The most essential purpose is to determine whether the assumptions of the subsidy program are working correctly in practice, and what are the real effects of introducing legislative changes into local government levels in the context of public health tasks. The assumption of the study was that the use of a new motivation tool in the field of public management would result in multiplication of resources invested in the provision of health policy programs. Preliminary conclusions show that financial expenditures changed significantly after the introduction of public funding at the level of 40%, obtaining an increase in funding from own funds of local governments at the level of 80 to 90%.

Keywords: health care system, health policy programs, local self-governments, public health management

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Authors: Ahmed Elwaleed, Huiho Jeong, Ali H. Abdelbagi, Nguyen Thi Quynh, Koji Arizono, Yasuhiro Ishibashi

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Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) poses substantial risks to both human health and the environment, particularly through contamination of soil, water, and air. Prolonged exposure to ASGM-contaminated soils can lead to acute or chronic mercury toxicity. This study assesses the human health risks associated with mercury-contaminated soils and tailings in the Alebediah mining community in Sudan. Soil samples were collected from various locations within Alebediah, including ASGM areas, farmlands, and residential areas, along with tailings samples commonly found within ASGM sites. The evaluation of potential health risks to humans included the computation of the estimated daily intake (AvDI), the hazard quotient (HQ), and the hazard index (HI) for both adults and children. The primary exposure route identified as potentially posing a significant health risk was the volatilization of mercury from tailings samples, where mercury concentrations reached up to 25.5 mg/kg. In contrast, other samples within the ASGM area showed elevated mercury levels but did not present significant health risks, with HI values below 1. However, all areas indicated HI values above 1 for the remaining exposure routes. The study observed a decrease in mercury concentration with increasing distance from the ASGM community. Additionally, soil samples revealed elevated mercury levels exceeding background values, prompting an assessment of contamination levels using the enrichment factor (EF). The findings indicated that farmlands and residential areas exhibited depleted EF, while areas surrounding the ASGM community showed none to moderate pollution. In contrast, ASGM areas exhibited significant to extreme pollution. A GIS map was generated to visually depict the extent of mercury pollution, facilitating communication with stakeholders and decision-makers.

Keywords: mercury pollution, artisanal and small-scale gold mining, health risk assessment, hazard index, soil and tailings, enrichment factor

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Authors: Dinamarie Fonzone

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Employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) strategic decision-making processes rely on financial analysis to guide leadership in choosing plans that will produce optimal organizational spending outcomes. These financial decision-making methods have not abated ESI costs. Previously unrecognized external social determinants, the impact on ESI plan spending, and other organizational strategies are emerging and are important considerations for organizational decision-makers and change management practitioners. The purpose of thisstudy is to examine the relationship between the social determinants of health (SDoH), employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) plans, andthe unintended consequence of health inequity. A quantitative research design using selectemployee records from an existing employer human capital management database will be analyzed. Statistical regressionmethods will be used to study the relationships between certainSDoH (employee income, neighborhood geographic living area, and health care access) and health plan utilization, cost, and chronic disease prevalence. The discussion will include an application of the social gradient of health theory to the study findings, organizational transformation through changes in ESI decision-making mental models, and the connection of ESI health inequity to organizational development and changediversity, equity, and inclusion strategies.

Keywords: employer-sponsored health insurance, social determinants of health, health inequity, mental models, organizational development, organizational change, social gradient of health theory

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Authors: Cindy Davis, Samantha Rayner

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Secondary traumatic stress (STS) is an indirect form of trauma affecting the psychological well-being of mental health workers; STS is found to be a prevalent risk in mental health occupations. Various factors impact the development of STS within the literature; including the level of trauma individuals are exposed to and their level of empathy. Research is limited on STS in mental health workers in Australia; therefore, this study examined STS and related factors of empathetic behavior and trauma caseload among mental health workers. The research utilized an online survey quantitative research design with a purposive sample of 190 mental health workers (176 females) recruited via professional websites and unofficial social media groups. Participants completed an online questionnaire comprising of demographics, the secondary traumatic stress scale and the empathy scale for social workers. A standard hierarchical regression analysis was conducted to examine the significance of covariates, traumatized clients, traumatic stress within workload and empathy in predicting STS. The current research found 29.5% of participants to meet the criteria for a diagnosis of STS. Age and past trauma within the covariates were significantly associated with STS. Amount of traumatized clients significantly predicted 4.7% of the variance in STS, traumatic stress within workload significantly predicted 4.8% of the variance in STS and empathy significantly predicted 4.9% of the variance in STS. These three independent variables and the covariates accounted for 18.5% of the variance in STS. Practical implications include a focus on developing risk strategies and treatment methods that can diminish the impact of STS.

Keywords: mental health, PTSD, social work, trauma

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Authors: Charuvan Kasemsap

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This research was studied in Bangnampriao District, Chachernsao Province, Thailand. The primary data relating to flooding, drought, and saline intrusion problem on agriculture were collected by surveying, focus group, and in-depth interview with agricultural officers, technical officers of irrigation department, and local government leader of Bangnampriao District. The likelihood and consequence of risk were determined the risk index by risk assessment matrix. In addition, the risk index and the total coping capacity scores were investigated the vulnerability index by vulnerability matrix. It was found that the high-risk drought and saline intrusion was dramatically along Bang Pakong River owing to the end destination of Chao Phraya Irrigation system of Central Thailand. This leads yearly the damage of rice paddy, mango tree, orchard, and fish pond. Therefore, some agriculture avoids rice growing during January to May, and also pumps fresh water from a canal into individual storage pond. However, Bangnampriao District will be strongly affected by the impacts of climate change. Monthly precipitations are expected to decrease in number; dry seasons are expected to be more in number and longer in duration. Thus, the risk and vulnerability of agriculture are also increasing. Adaptation strategies need to be put in place in order to enhance the resilience of the agriculture.

Keywords: agriculture, bangnampriao, climate change, risk assessment

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Authors: Rohin Rameswarapu, Sameer Valsangkar

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Background: Globally, musculoskeletal disorders are the largest single cause of work-related illnesses accounting for over 33% of all newly reported occupational illnesses. Risk factors for MSD need to be delineated to suggest means for amelioration. Material and methods: In this current cross-sectional study, the prevalence of MSDs among workers in an electrical company assembly line, the socio-demographic and job characteristics associated with MSD were obtained through a semi-structured questionnaire. A quantitative assessment of the physical risk factors through the Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) tool, and measurement of psychosocial risk factors through a Likert scale was obtained. Statistical analysis was conducted using Epi-info software and descriptive and inferential statistics including chi-square and unpaired t test were obtained. Results: A total of 263 workers consented and participated in the study. Among these workers, 200 (76%) suffered from MSD. Most of the workers were aged between 18–27 years and majority of the workers were women with 198 (75.2%) of the 263 workers being women. A chi square test was significant for association between male gender and MSD with a P value of 0.007. Among the MSD positive group, 4 (2%) had a grand score of 5, 10 (5%) had a grand score of 6 and 186 (93%) had a grand score of 7 on RULA. There were significant differences between the non-MSD and MSD group on five out of the seven psychosocial domains, namely job demand, job monotony, co-worker support, decision control and family and environment domains. Discussion: The current cross-sectional study demonstrates a high prevalence of MSD among assembly line works with inherent physical and psychosocial risk factors and recommends that not only physical risk factors, addressing psychosocial risk factors through proper ergonomic means is also essential to the well-being of the employee.

Keywords: musculoskeletal disorders, India, occupational health, Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA)

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Authors: Qisheng Hu, Jianglei Han, Yue Yang, My Hoa Ha

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When a company is considering purchasing software for commercial use, contract risk assessment is critical to identify risks to mitigate the potential adverse business impact, e.g., security, financial and regulatory risks. Contract risk assessment requires reviewers with specialized knowledge and time to evaluate the legal documents manually. Specifically, validating contracts for a software vendor requires the following steps: manual screening, interpreting legal documents, and extracting risk-prone segments. To automate the process, we proposed a framework to assist legal contract document risk identification, leveraging pre-trained deep learning models and natural language processing techniques. Given a set of pre-defined risk evaluation problems, our framework utilizes the pre-trained transformer-based models for question-answering to identify risk-prone sections in a contract. Furthermore, the question-answering model encodes the concatenated question-contract text and predicts the start and end position for clause extraction. Due to the limited labelled dataset for training, we leveraged transfer learning by fine-tuning the models with the CUAD dataset to enhance the model. On a dataset comprising 287 contract documents and 2000 labelled samples, our best model achieved an F1 score of 0.687.

Keywords: contract risk assessment, NLP, transfer learning, question answering

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Authors: Thimira Pasas P, Nirmala Priyadarshani M, Ishani R

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Obesity is a global health issue. Early identification is essential to plan interventions and intervene than to reduce the worsening of obesity and its consequences on the health issues of the individual. Childhood obesity is multifactorial, with both modifiable and unmodifiable risk factors. A genetically susceptible individual (unmodifiable), when placed in an obesogenic environment (modifiable), is likely to become obese in onset and progression. The present study was conducted to identify the age of onset of childhood obesity and the influence of modifiable risk factors for childhood obesity among school children living in a suburban area of Sri Lanka. The study population was aged 11-12 years of Piliyandala Educational Zone. Data were collected from 11–12-year-old school children attending government schools in the Piliyandala Educational Zone. They were using a validated, pre-tested self-administered questionnaire. A stratified random sampling method was performed to select schools and to select a representative sample to include all 3 types of government schools of students due to the prevailing pandemic situation, information from the last school medical inspection on data from 2020used for this purpose. For each obese child identified, 2 non-obese children were selected as controls. A single representative from the area was selected by using a systematic random sampling method with a sampling interval of 3. Data was collected using a validated, pre-tested self-administered questionnaire and the Child Health Development Record of the child. An introduction, which included explanations and instructions for filing the questionnaire, was carried out as a group activity prior to distributing the questionnaire among the sample. The results of the present study aligned with the hypothesis that the age of onset of childhood obesity and prediction must be within the first two years of child life. A total of 130 children (66 males: 64 females) participated in the study. The age of onset of obesity was seen to be within the first two years of life. The risk of obesity at 11-12 years of age was Obesity risk was identified at 3-time s higher among females who underwent rapid weight gain within their infancy period. Consuming milk prior to breakfast emerged as a risk factor that increases the risk of obesity by three times. The current study found that the drink before breakfast tends to increase the obesity risk by 3-folds, especially among obese females. Proper monitoring must be carried out to identify the rapid weight gain, especially within the first 2 years of life. Consumption of mug milk before breakfast tends to increase the obesity risk by 3 times. Identification of the confounding factors, proper awareness of the mothers/guardians and effective proper interventions need to be carried out to reduce the obesity risk among school children in the future.

Keywords: childhood obesity, school children, age of onset, weight gain, feeding pattern, activity level

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan, Inga A. Koryagina, Eugenia V. Klicheva

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In modern conditions, scientific judgment of problems in developing mechanisms of value creation and risk management acquires special relevance. Formation of economic knowledge has resulted in the constant analysis of consumer behavior for all players from national and world markets. Effective mechanisms development of the demand analysis, crucial for consumer's characteristics of future production, and the risks connected with the development of this production are the main objectives of control systems in modern conditions. The modern period of economic development is characterized by a high level of globalization of business and rigidity of competition. At the same time, the considerable share of new products and services costs has a non-material intellectual nature. The most successful in Russia is the contemporary development of small innovative firms. Such firms, through their unique technologies and new approaches to process management, which form the basis of their intellectual capital, can show flexibility and succeed in the market. As a rule, such enterprises should have very variable structure excluding the tough scheme of submission and demanding essentially new incentives for inclusion of personnel in innovative activity. Realization of similar structures, as well as a new approach to management, can be constructed based on value-oriented management which is directed to gradual change of consciousness of personnel and formation from groups of adherents included in the solution of the general innovative tasks. At the same time, valuable changes can gradually capture not only innovative firm staff, but also the structure of its corporate partners. Introduction of new technologies is the significant factor contributing to the development of new valuable imperatives and acceleration of the changing values systems of the organization. It relates to the fact that new technologies change the internal environment of the organization in a way that the old system of values becomes inefficient in new conditions. Introduction of new technologies often demands change in the structure of employee’s interaction and training in their new principles of work. During the introduction of new technologies and the accompanying change in the value system, the structure of the management of the values of the organization is changing. This is due to the need to attract more staff to justify and consolidate the new value system and bring their view into the motivational potential of the new value system of the organization.

Keywords: value, risk, creation, problems, organization

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Authors: Mithlesh Chourase

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Health of the transgender is as important as any other population sub-groups. However, little is known about the issues of mental health problems and health seeking behaviour of transgender in India. This paper examines the depression, stigma problem and suicidality (risk of suicide) among the transgender people in Mumbai city. The study used the primary survey data conducted in Mumbai city among the transgender community with a total sample of 120 among the transgender. Both qualitative and quantitative data was collected on demographic and socio-economic characteristic, general health and sexual health problems, mental health and health seeking behaviour among transgender. The quantitative results revealed that among the transgender, the prevalence of depression was very high. In this community 58.3% and 45.8 % of the transgender were suffered from depression and stigma problem respectively. On the other hand 42% and 48% of the transgender attempted suicide and experienced discrimination in the society. The qualitative results also revealed that the transgender were suffered from physical violence especially due to being a transgender, stressed due to being a transgender, experienced discrimination everywhere, experienced sexual health problems especially HIV, partner problem etc. As a result the prevalence of depression, self-harm attempt and suicidal attempt was common among this community.

Keywords: transgender, depression, Mumbai, mental health

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Authors: Babak Mohajeri, Sen Bao, Timo Nyberg

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Customer experience is increasingly the differentiator between successful companies and those who struggle. Currently, customer experiences become more dynamic; and they advance with each interaction between the company and a customer. Every customer conversation and any effort to evolve these conversations would be beneficial and should ultimately result in a positive customer experience. The aim of this paper is to analyze the evolving customer experience management landscape and the relevant challenges and opportunities. A case study on the “paper machine” companies is chosen. Hence, this paper analyzes the challenges and opportunities in customer experience management of paper machine companies for the case of “road to steel”. Road to steel shows the journey of steel from raw material to end product (i.e. paper machine in this paper). ALPHA (Steel company) and BETA (paper machine company), are chosen and their efforts to evolve the customer experiences are investigated. Semi-structured interviews are conducted with experts in those companies to identify the challenges and opportunities of the evolving customer experience management from their point of view. The findings of this paper contribute to the theory and business practices in the realm of the evolving customer experience management landscape.

Keywords: Customer Experience Management, Paper Machine , Value Chain Management, Risk Analysis

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Authors: Manoel Pereira, Alvaro Veiga, Camila Epprecht, Renato Costa

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This paper introduces an empirical version of the Esscher transform for risk-neutral option pricing. Traditional parametric methods require the formulation of an explicit risk-neutral model and are operational only for a few probability distributions for the returns of the underlying. In our proposal, we make only mild assumptions on the pricing kernel and there is no need for the formulation of the risk-neutral model for the returns. First, we simulate sample paths for the returns under the physical distribution. Then, based on the empirical Esscher transform, the sample is reweighted, giving rise to a risk-neutralized sample from which derivative prices can be obtained by a weighted sum of the options pay-offs in each path. We compare our proposal with some traditional parametric pricing methods in four experiments with artificial and real data.

Keywords: esscher transform, generalized autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH), nonparametric option pricing

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Authors: Nemeh Ahmad Al-Akour, Ibrahem Alfaouri

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Objective: To examine the level of maternal awareness of SIDS and its prevention amongst Jordanian mothers in the north of Jordan, as well as to determine their SIDS-related infant care practices. Design: A cross-sectional design. Setting: The study was conducted in maternal out-patients clinics of two teaching hospitals and three maternal and child health clinic in three major health care centers in Northern Jordan. Participants: A total of 356 mothers of infants attending the maternal and child health clinics were included in this study. Measurements and findings: A self-administered questionnaire was used for collecting data study. In this study, 64%of mothers didn’t hear about SIDS, while only 7% of mothers were able to identify factors risk-reducing recommendations. Avoidance of prone sleeping was the most frequently identified recommendation (5%). There were 67.7% of mothers who put their infant in a lateral position to sleep, 61% used soft mattress surface for their babies sleep and 25.8% who shared a bed with their babies. Employed mother, mothers of higher age, and mothers living within a nuclear family were the only factors associated with maternal awareness of SIDS. Friends were the highest a source of knowledge of SIDS for mothers (44.7%). Key conclusions: There was a low level of awareness of SIDS and its associated risk factor among the mothers in Jordan. The mothers' misconception about smoking and sleeping position for their infants requires further efforts. Implications for practice: To ensure raising awareness of infant care practice regarding SIDS, a national educational intervention on SIDS risk reduction strategies and recommendations is necessary for maintaining a low rate of SIDS in the population.

Keywords: bed sharing, infant care, Jordan, sleep position, sudden infant death

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Authors: Silvia Rahmita

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Entrepreneurial success is crucial for economic growth, competitiveness, and job creation, yet many entrepreneurs face failure due to various challenges. This paper explores the critical role of strategic thinking in mitigating entrepreneurial failure. Entrepreneurial competencies—encompassing knowledge, skills, and traits—are essential for creating and growing ventures. Despite these competencies, numerous entrepreneurs fail due to poor management, inadequate support, and ineffective policies. The paper categorizes entrepreneurial failures into financial, operational, market, product or service, strategic, leadership, legal, human capital, technological, and environmental failures. Each failure type can be addressed through strategic thinking, which involves foresight, balancing short-term and long-term goals, and hypothesis-driven processes. By integrating strategic thinking into their approach, entrepreneurs can enhance risk management, adapt to market changes, and sustain growth. This process involves setting clear goals, innovating products, and maintaining a competitive edge. Ultimately, strategic thinking provides a framework for proactive planning, adaptation, and continuous improvement, reducing the likelihood of failure and ensuring long-term success. Entrepreneurs who prioritize strategic thinking are better equipped to navigate the complexities of the business environment and achieve sustainable growth.

Keywords: entrepreneurial failure, strategic thinking, risk management, business failure

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Authors: Tuji Jemal Ahmed, Hussen Beker Yusuf

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Food safety is a major concern worldwide, with microbial contamination being one of the leading causes of foodborne illnesses. In Ethiopia, drinking water and untreated groundwater are a primary source of microbial contamination, leading to significant health risks. East Hararghe, Oromia, is one of the regions in Ethiopia that has been affected by this problem. This paper provides an overview of the impact of untreated groundwater on human health in Haramaya Rural District, East Hararghe and highlights the urgent need for sustained efforts to address the water sanitation supply problem. The use of untreated groundwater for drinking and household purposes in Haramaya Rural District, East Hararghe is prevalent, leading to high rates of waterborne illnesses such as diarrhea, typhoid fever, and cholera. The impact of these illnesses on human health is significant, resulting in significant morbidity and mortality, especially among vulnerable populations such as children and the elderly. In addition to the direct health impacts, waterborne illnesses also have indirect impacts on human health, such as reduced productivity and increased healthcare costs. Groundwater sources are susceptible to microbial contamination due to the infiltration of surface water, human and animal waste, and agricultural runoff. In Haramaya Rural District, East Hararghe, poor water management practices, inadequate sanitation facilities, and limited access to clean water sources contribute to the prevalence of untreated groundwater as a primary source of drinking water. These underlying causes of microbial contamination highlight the need for improved water sanitation infrastructure, including better access to safe drinking water sources and the implementation of effective treatment methods. The paper emphasizes the need for regular water quality monitoring, especially for untreated groundwater sources, to ensure safe drinking water for the population. The implementation of effective preventive measures, such as the use of effective disinfectants, proper waste disposal methods, and regular water quality monitoring, is crucial to reducing the risk of contamination and improving public health outcomes in the region. Community education and awareness-raising campaigns can also play a critical role in promoting safe water practices and reducing the risk of contamination. These campaigns can include educating the population on the importance of boiling water before drinking, the use of water filters, and proper sanitation practices. In conclusion, the use of untreated groundwater as a primary source of drinking water in East Hararghe, Oromia, Ethiopia, has significant impacts on human health, leading to widespread waterborne illnesses and posing a significant threat to public health. Sustained efforts are urgently needed to address the root causes of contamination, such as poor sanitation and hygiene practices, improper waste management, and the water sanitation supply problem, including the implementation of effective preventive measures and community-based education programs, ultimately improving public health outcomes in the region. A comprehensive approach that involves community-based water management systems, point-of-use water treatment methods, and awareness-raising campaigns can contribute to reducing the incidence of microbial contamination in the region.

Keywords: food safety, health risks, microbial contamination, untreated groundwater

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Authors: Hannes Koester

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Driven by difficult market conditions and increasing regulations, many banks are making the strategic decision to restructure their portfolio by divesting several business segments. Using a unique dataset of 727 portfolio restructuring announcements by 161 international listed banks over the period 1999 to 2015, we investigate the impact of restructuring measurements on the stock performance as well as on the banks’ profitability and risk. Employing the event study methodology, we detect positive stock market reactions on the announcement of restructuring measurements. These positive stock market reactions indicate that shareholders reward banks’ specialization activities. However, the results of the system GMM regressions show a negative relation between restructuring measurements and banks’ return on assets and a positive relation towards the individual and systemic risk of banks. These empirical results indicate that there is no guarantee that portfolio restructurings will result in a more profitable and less risky institution.

Keywords: bank performance, bank risk, divestiture, restructuring, systemic risk

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Authors: Shaya Alshahrani

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Perceived risks play a major role in consumer intentions, behaviors, attitudes, and decisions about online shopping in the KSA. This paper investigates the influence of six perceived risk dimensions on Saudi consumers: product risk, information risk, financial risk, privacy and security risk, delivery risk, and terms and conditions risk empirically. To ensure the success of this study, a random survey was distributed to reflect the consumers’ perceived risk and to enable the generalization of the results. Data were collected from 323 respondents in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA): 50 who had never shopped online and 273 who had done so. The results indicated that all six risks influenced the respondents’ perceptions of online shopping. The non-online shoppers perceived financial and delivery risks as the most significant barriers to online shopping. This was followed closely by performance, information, and privacy and security risks. Terms and conditions were perceived as less significant. The online consumers considered delivery and performance risks to be the most significant influences on internet shopping. This was followed closely by information and terms and conditions. Financial and privacy and security risks were perceived as less significant. This paper argues that introducing adequate legal solutions to addressing related problems arising from this study is an urgent need. This may enhance consumer trust in the KSA online market, increase consumers’ intentions regarding online shopping, and improve consumer protection.

Keywords: perceived risk, online contracts, Saudi Arabia, consumer protection

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Authors: Princes Ann E. Prieto, Denise F. Alpuerto, John Rafael C. Unlayao, Neil Concibido, Monet Concepcion Maguyon-Detras

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Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) has been used in the virtual Process Hazard Analysis (PHA) of the Acetone production process through the dehydrogenation of isopropyl alcohol, for which very limited process risk assessment has been published. In this study, the potential failure modes, effects, and possible causes of selected major equipment in the process were identified. During the virtual FMEA mock sessions, the risks in the process were evaluated and recommendations to reduce and/or mitigate the process risks were formulated. The risk was estimated using the calculated risk priority number (RPN) and was classified into four (4) levels according to their effects on acetone production. Results of this study were also used to rank the criticality of equipment in the process based on the calculated criticality rating (CR). Bow tie diagrams were also created for the critical hazard scenarios identified in the study.

Keywords: chemical process safety, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), process hazard analysis (PHA), process safety management (PSM)

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Authors: Samuel Owoade, Zainab Idowu, Idris Ajibade, Abel Uzoka

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Cloud computing adoption continues to soar, with 83% of enterprise workloads estimated to be in the cloud by 2022. However, this rapid migration raises security concerns, needing strong security management solutions to safeguard sensitive data and essential applications. This paper investigates the critical role of technical project managers in orchestrating security management initiatives for cloud environments, evaluating their responsibilities, challenges, and best practices for assuring the resilience and integrity of cloud infrastructures. Drawing from a comprehensive review of industry reports and interviews with cloud security experts, this research highlights the multifaceted landscape of security management in cloud environments. Despite the rapid adoption of cloud services, only 25% of organizations have matured their cloud security practices, indicating a pressing need for effective management strategies. This paper proposes a strategy framework adapted to the demands of technical project managers, outlining the important components of effective cloud security management. Notably, 76% of firms identify misconfiguration as a major source of cloud security incidents, underlining the significance of proactive risk assessment and constant monitoring. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the importance of technical project managers in facilitating cross-functional collaboration, bridging the gap between cybersecurity professionals, cloud architects, compliance officers, and IT operations teams. With 68% of firms seeing difficulties integrating security policies into their cloud systems, effective communication and collaboration are critical to success. Case studies from industry leaders illustrate the practical use of security management projects in cloud settings. These examples demonstrate the importance of technical project managers in using their expertise to address obstacles and generate meaningful outcomes, with 92% of firms reporting improved security practices after implementing proactive security management tactics. In conclusion, this research underscores the critical role of technical project managers in safeguarding cloud environments against evolving threats. By embracing their role as guardians of the cloud realm, project managers can mitigate risks, optimize resource utilization, and uphold the trust and integrity of cloud infrastructures in an era of digital transformation.

Keywords: cloud security, security management, technical project management, cybersecurity, cloud infrastructure, risk management, compliance

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Authors: Kwabena Asare, Ezekiel N. N. Nortey, Felix O. Mettle

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Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana Stock Exchange All-Shares indices (2000-2010) by applying the Extreme Value Theory to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model’s goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

Keywords: extreme value theory, expected shortfall, generalized pareto distribution, peak over threshold, value at risk

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Authors: Yin-Hsuan Wu, Perng-Jy Tsai, Ying-Fang Wang, Shun-Hui Chung

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The present study was conducted to characterize exposure concentrations, concentrations deposited on the different respiratory regions, and resultant health risks associated with heavy metal exposures for road marking workers. Road marking workers of three similar exposure groups (SEGs) were selected, including the paint pouring worker, marking worker, and preparing worker. Personal exposure samples were collected using an inhalable dust sampler (IOM), and the involved particle size distribution samples were estimated using an eight-stage Marple personal cascade impactor during five working days. In total, 25 IOM samples and 20 Marple samples were collected. All collected samples were analyzed for their heavy metal contents using the ICP/MS. The resultant heavy metal particle size distributions were also used to estimate the fractions of particle deposited on the head airways (Chead), tracheobronchial (Cthorac) and alveolar regions (Cresp) of the exposed workers. In addition, Pb and Cr were selected to estimate the incremental cancer risk, and Zn, Ti, and Mo were selected to estimate the corresponding non-cancer risk in the present study. Results show that three heavy metals, including Pb, Cr, and Ti, were found with the highest concentrations for the SEG of the paint pouring worker (=0.585±2.98, 0.307±1.71, 0.902±2.99 μg/m³, respectively). For the fraction of heavy metal particle deposited on the respiratory tract, both alveolar and head regions were found with the highest values (=23-43% and 39-61%, respectively). For both SEGs of the paint pouring and marking, 51% of Cr, 59-61% of Zn, and 48-51% of Ti were found to be deposited on the alveolar region, and 41-43% of Pb was deposited on the head region. Finally, the incremental cancer risk for the SEGs of the paint pouring, marking, and preparing were found as 1.08×10⁻⁵, 2.78×10⁻⁶, and 2.20×10⁻⁶, respectively. In addition, the estimated non-cancer risk for the above three SEGs was found to be consistently less than unity. In conclusion, though the estimated non-cancer risk was less than unity, all resultant incremental cancer risk was greater than 10⁻⁶ indicating the abatement of workers’ exposure is necessary. It is suggested that strategies, including placing on the molten kettle, substitution the currently used paints for less heavy metal containing paints, and wearing fume protecting personal protective equipment can be considered in the future from reducing the worker’s exposure aspect.

Keywords: health risk assessment, heavy metal, respiratory track deposition, road marking

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Authors: David Glew, Felix Thomas, Matthew Brooke-Peat

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Improving the thermal performance of homes is seen as an essential step in achieving climate change, fuel security, fuel poverty targets. One of the most effective thermal retrofits is to insulate solid walls. However, it has been observed that applying insulation to the internal face of solid walls reduces the surface temperature of the inner wall leaf, which may introduce condensation risk and may interrupt seasonal moisture accumulation and dissipation. This research quantifies the extent to which the risk of condensation and moisture accumulation in the wall increases (which can increase the risk of timber rot) following the installation of six different types of internal wall insulation. In so doing, it compares how risk is affected by both the thermal resistance, thickness, and breathability of the insulation. Thermal bridging, surface temperatures, condensation risk, and moisture accumulation are evaluated using hygrothermal simulation software before and after the thermal upgrades. The research finds that installing internal wall insulation will always introduce some risk of condensation and moisture. However, it identifies that risks were present prior to insulation and that breathable materials and insulation with lower resistance have lower risks than alternative insulation options. The implications of this may be that building standards that encourage the enhanced thermal performance of solid walls may be introducing moisture risks into homes.

Keywords: condensation risk, hygrothermal simulation, internal wall insulation, thermal bridging

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Jefferson Camacho Mejía, Jenny Paola Forero Pachón, Luis Carlos Gómez Flórez

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Action research is a qualitative research methodology, which leads the researcher to delve into the problems of a community in order to understand its needs in depth and finally, to propose actions that lead to a change of social paradigm. Although this methodology had its beginnings in the human sciences, it has attracted increasing interest and acceptance in the field of information systems research since the 1990s. The countless possibilities offered nowadays by the use of Information Technologies (IT) in the development of different socio-economic activities have meant a change of social paradigm and the emergence of the so-called information and knowledge society. According to this, governments, large corporations, small entrepreneurs and in general, organizations of all kinds are using IT to virtualize their processes, taking them from the physical environment to the digital environment. However, there is a potential risk for organizations related with exposing valuable information without an appropriate framework for protecting it. This paper shows progress in the development of a methodological design to manage the information security risks associated with the IT-based processes virtualization, by applying the principles of the action research methodology and it is the result of a systematic review of the scientific literature. This design consists of seven fundamental stages. These are distributed in the three stages described in the action research methodology: 1) Observe, 2) Analyze and 3) Take actions. Finally, this paper aims to offer an alternative tool to traditional information security management methodologies with a view to being applied specifically in the planning stage of IT-based process virtualization in order to foresee risks and to establish security controls before formulating IT solutions in any type of organization.

Keywords: action research, information security, information technology, methodological design, process virtualization, risk management

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Authors: Laatra Zemmouri, Said Boukhechem, Samia Haffaf, Mohamed Lafri

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A study was conducted in order to determine the prevalence and risk factors associated with abortion in ewes in the region of M’sila, located in central-eastern Algeria. A questionnaire was carried out to obtain information about the occurrence of abortion, sheep housing conditions, vaccination, feeding and management practices, and whether the farmers kept other livestock. This cross-sectional study was conducted for 36 months (between 2016 and 2019). A total of 71 sheep flocks were visited. Among 8168 ewes, we recorded 734 (8.99%) abortions and 3861 lambings. The risk factor analysis using multivariable logistic regression showed an association between abortion and vaccination against brucellosis (CI 95%= 2,76-1,35; p<0,001). Abortion decreased when dogs are owned (CI 95%= 0,36-0,84; p= 0.006), however, abortion increased with the presence of cats in farms (CI 95%= 1,24-2,8; p=0.003). There was a significant association between abortion and keeping goats (CI 95%= 1,18-2,40; p= 0.004), bovins (CI 95%= 0,3-0,68; p<0,001) and poultry CI 95%= 0,39-0,77; p= 0.001) in farms. Through this study, it is noticed that a strong association between the occurrence of abortion and estrus synchronization, stillbirth occurrence, and feed supplementation (p<0.05). Identification of the causes of abortion is an important task to reduce foetal losses and to improve livestock productivity.

Keywords: abortion, ewes, questionnaire, risk factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 217

Authors: Visa I. Tyakaray, M. Abdulaziz, O. Badmus, N. Karaye, M. Dalhat, A. Shehu, I. Bello, T. Hussaini, S. Akar, G. Effah, P. Nguku

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Introduction: Nigeria has recorded outbreaks of meningitis in the past, being in the meningitis belt. A multi-state outbreak of Cerebrospinal Meningitis (CSM) from Neisseria meningitides occurred in 2017 involving 24 states, and Kano State reported its first two confirmed CSM cases on 22nd March, 2017. We conducted the outbreak investigation to characterize the outbreak, determine its associated risk factors and institute appropriate control measures. Method: We conducted an unmatched Case-control study with ratio 1:2. A case was defined as any person with sudden onset of fever (>38.5˚C rectal or 38.0˚C axillary) and one of the following: neck stiffness, altered consciousness or bulging fontanelle in toddlers while a control was defined as any person who resides around the case such as family members, caregivers, neighbors, and healthcare personnel. We reviewed and validated line list and conducted active case search in health facilities and neighboring communities. Descriptive, bivariate, stratified and multivariate analysis were performed. Laboratory confirmation was by Latex agglutination and/or Culture. Results: We recruited 48 cases with median age of 11 years (1 month – 65 years), attack rate was 2.4/100,000 population with case fatality rate of 8%; 34 of 44 local government areas were affected.On stratification, age was found to be a confounder. Independent factors associated with the outbreak were age (Adjusted Odds Ratio, AOR =6.58; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) =2.85-15.180, history of Vaccination (AOR=0.37; 95% CI=0.13-0.99) and history of travel (AOR=10.16; (1.99-51.85). Laboratory results showed 22 positive cases for Neisseria meningitides types C and A/Y. Conclusion: Major risk factors associated with this outbreak were age (>14years), not being vaccinated and history of travel. We sensitized communities and strengthened case management. We recommended immediate reactive vaccination and enhanced surveillance in bordering communities.

Keywords: cerebrospinal, factors, Kano-Nigeria, meningitis, risk

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Authors: Ruchi Sharma, Rajasekhar Balasubramanian

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Motor vehicles emit a number of air pollutants, among which fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) is of major concern in cities with high population density due to its negative impacts on air quality and human health. Typically, people spend more than 80% of their time indoors. Consequently, human exposure to traffic-related PM₂.₅ in indoor environments has received considerable attention. Most of the public residential buildings in tropical countries are designed for natural ventilation where indoor air quality tends to be strongly affected by the migration of air pollutants of outdoor origin. However, most of the previously reported traffic-related PM₂.₅ exposure assessment studies relied on ambient PM₂.₅ concentrations and thus, the health impact of traffic-related PM₂.₅ on occupants in naturally ventilated buildings remains largely unknown. Therefore, a systematic field study was conducted to assess indoor human exposure to traffic-related PM₂.₅ with and without mitigation measures in a typical naturally ventilated residential apartment situated near a road carrying a large volume of traffic. Three PM₂.₅ exposure scenarios were simulated in this study, i.e., Case 1: keeping all windows open with a ceiling fan on as per the usual practice, Case 2: keeping all windows fully closed as a mitigation measure, and Case 3: keeping all windows fully closed with the operation of a portable indoor air cleaner as an additional mitigation measure. The indoor to outdoor (I/O) ratios for PM₂.₅ mass concentrations were assessed and the effectiveness of using the indoor air cleaner was quantified. Additionally, potential human health risk based on the bioavailable fraction of toxic trace elements was also estimated for the three cases in order to identify a suitable mitigation measure for reducing PM₂.₅ exposure indoors. Traffic-related PM₂.₅ levels indoors exceeded the air quality guidelines (12 µg/m³) in Case 1, i.e., under natural ventilation conditions due to advective flow of outdoor air into the indoor environment. However, while using the indoor air cleaner, a significant reduction (p < 0.05) in the PM₂.₅ exposure levels was noticed indoors. Specifically, the effectiveness of the air cleaner in terms of reducing indoor PM₂.₅ exposure was estimated to be about 74%. Moreover, potential human health risk assessment also indicated a substantial reduction in potential health risk while using the air cleaner. This is the first study of its kind that evaluated the indoor human exposure to traffic-related PM₂.₅ and identified a suitable exposure mitigation measure that can be implemented in densely populated cities to realize health benefits.

Keywords: fine particulate matter, indoor air cleaner, potential human health risk, vehicular emissions

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Authors: Ioannis Andrianakis, Vasileios Gkatas, Nikos Eleftheriadis, Alexios Ellinidis, Ermioni Avramidou

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The paper discusses the main aspects involved in the development of a supply chain management system using the newly developed PredictionSCMS software as a basis for the discussion. The discussion is focused on three topics: the first is demand forecasting, where we present the predictive algorithms implemented and discuss related concepts such as the calculation of the safety stock, the effect of out-of-stock days etc. The second topic concerns the design of a supply chain, where the core parameters involved in the process are given, together with a methodology of incorporating these parameters in a meaningful order creation strategy. Finally, the paper discusses some critical events that can happen during the operation of a supply chain management system and how the developed software notifies the end user about their occurrence.

Keywords: demand forecasting, machine learning, risk management, supply chain design

Procedia PDF Downloads 77