Search results for: coverage probability
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1881

Search results for: coverage probability

1191 Development of Risk Assessment and Occupational Safety Management Model for Building Construction Projects

Authors: Preeda Sansakorn, Min An

Abstract:

In order to be capable of dealing with uncertainties, subjectivities, including vagueness arising in building construction projects, the application of fuzzy reasoning technique based on fuzzy set theory is proposed. This study contributes significantly to the development of a fuzzy reasoning safety risk assessment model for building construction projects that could be employed to assess the risk magnitude of each hazardous event identified during construction, and a third parameter of probability of consequence is incorporated in the model. By using the proposed safety risk analysis methodology, more reliable and less ambiguities, which provide the safety risk management project team for decision-making purposes.

Keywords: safety risk assessment, building construction safety, fuzzy reasoning, construction risk assessment model, building construction projects

Procedia PDF Downloads 493
1190 Texture-Based Image Forensics from Video Frame

Authors: Li Zhou, Yanmei Fang

Abstract:

With current technology, images and videos can be obtained more easily than ever. It is so easy to manipulate these digital multimedia information when obtained, and that the content or source of the image and video could be easily tampered. In this paper, we propose to identify the image and video frame by the texture-based approach, e.g. Markov Transition Probability (MTP), which is in space domain, DCT domain and DWT domain, respectively. In the experiment, image and video frame database is constructed, and is used to train and test the classifier Support Vector Machine (SVM). Experiment results show that the texture-based approach has good performance. In order to verify the experiment result, and testify the universality and robustness of algorithm, we build a random testing dataset, the random testing result is in keeping with above experiment.

Keywords: multimedia forensics, video frame, LBP, MTP, SVM

Procedia PDF Downloads 428
1189 Data-Driven Market Segmentation in Hospitality Using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Authors: Rik van Leeuwen, Ger Koole

Abstract:

Within hospitality, marketing departments use segmentation to create tailored strategies to ensure personalized marketing. This study provides a data-driven approach by segmenting guest profiles via hierarchical clustering based on an extensive set of features. The industry requires understandable outcomes that contribute to adaptability for marketing departments to make data-driven decisions and ultimately driving profit. A marketing department specified a business question that guides the unsupervised machine learning algorithm. Features of guests change over time; therefore, there is a probability that guests transition from one segment to another. The purpose of the study is to provide steps in the process from raw data to actionable insights, which serve as a guideline for how hospitality companies can adopt an algorithmic approach.

Keywords: hierarchical cluster analysis, hospitality, market segmentation

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1188 The Effect of Corporate Governance on Earnings Management: When Firms Report Increasing Earnings

Authors: Su-Ping Liu, Yue Tian, Yifan Shen

Abstract:

This study investigates the effect of corporate governance on earnings management when firms have reported a long stream of earnings increases (hereafter referred to as earnings beaters). We expect that good quality of corporate governance decreases the probability of income-increasing earnings management. We employ transparent tools to capture firms’ opportunistic management behavior, specifically, the repurchase of stock. In addition, we use corporate governance proxies to measure the degree of corporate governance, including board size, board independence, CEO duality, and the frequency of meeting. The results hold after the controlling of variables that suggested in prior literature. We expect that the simple technique, that is, firms’ degree of corporate governance, to be used as an inexpensive first step in detecting earnings management.

Keywords: corporate governance, earnings management, earnings patterns, stock repurchase

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1187 Methodology for Developing an Intelligent Tutoring System Based on Marzano’s Taxonomy

Authors: Joaquin Navarro Perales, Ana Lidia Franzoni Velázquez, Francisco Cervantes Pérez

Abstract:

The Mexican educational system faces diverse challenges related with the quality and coverage of education. The development of Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS) may help to solve some of them by helping teachers to customize their classes according to the performance of the students in online courses. In this work, we propose the adaptation of a functional ITS based on Bloom’s taxonomy called Sistema de Apoyo Generalizado para la Enseñanza Individualizada (SAGE), to measure student’s metacognition and their emotional response based on Marzano’s taxonomy. The students and the system will share the control over the advance in the course, so they can improve their metacognitive skills. The system will not allow students to get access to subjects not mastered yet. The interaction between the system and the student will be implemented through Natural Language Processing techniques, thus avoiding the use of sensors to evaluate student’s response. The teacher will evaluate student’s knowledge utilization, which is equivalent to the last cognitive level in Marzano’s taxonomy.

Keywords: intelligent tutoring systems, student modelling, metacognition, affective computing, natural language processing

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1186 Political Economy of Electronic News Media in Pakistan

Authors: Asad Ullah Khalid

Abstract:

This paper encompasses the application of the concept of political economy of mass media in Pakistan. The media has developed at a massive pace and now is considered as one of the vital parts in having better administration furthermore helps in conveying the issues identified with the government to the public. Albeit Pakistani media has gained much independence after 2003 but there are many social, political and economy factors which influence the content of the media. The study employs triangulation of quantitative and qualitative methods. In terms of methods, content analysis and interview method both are used. The content of Pakistani media is analyzed quantitatively and qualitatively. Moreover, interviews with various journalists are conducted, and their findings are disclosed in this paper. Pakistan's communication landscape is neither well documented nor well understood, leaving its public off guard with regards to reviewing the role and impact of news inflow, correspondence and media in political, economic and social life. It has been found out that on particular issues some media channels have strong affiliations with certain political parties, moreover reporting and coverage have also been affected by the factors like terrorism, state policies(written and verbal), advertising/economic and demographic factors like the composition of the population.

Keywords: political economy, news media, Pakistan, electronic news media, journalism, mass media

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1185 Determinants of Long Acting Reversible Contraception Utilization among Women (15-49) in Uganda: Analysis of 2016 PMA2020 Uganda Survey

Authors: Nulu Nanono

Abstract:

Background: The Ugandan national health policy and the national population policy all recognize the need to increase access to quality, affordable, acceptable and sustainable contraceptive services for all people but provision and utilization of quality services remains low. Two contraceptive methods are categorized as long-acting temporary methods: intrauterine contraceptive devices (IUCDs) and implants. Copper-containing IUCDs, generally available in Ministry of Health (MoH) family planning programs and is effective for at least 12 years while Implants, depending on the type, last for up to three to seven years. Uganda’s current policy and political environment are favorable towards achieving national access to quality and safe contraceptives for all people as evidenced by increasing government commitments and innovative family planning programs. Despite the increase of modern contraception use from 14% to 26%, long acting reversible contraceptive (LARC) utilization has relatively remained low with less than 5% using IUDs & Implants which in a way explains Uganda’s persistent high fertility rates. Main question/hypothesis: The purpose of the study was to examine relationship between the demographic, socio-economic characteristics of women, health facility factors and long acting reversible contraception utilization. Methodology: LARC utilization was investigated comprising of the two questions namely are you or your partner currently doing something or using any method to delay or avoid getting pregnant? And which method or methods are you using? Data for the study was sourced from the 2016 Uganda Performance Monitoring and Accountability 2020 Survey comprising of 3816 female respondents aged 15 to 49 years. The analysis was done using the Chi-squared tests and the probit regression at bivariate and multivariate levels respectively. The model was further tested for validity and normality of the residuals using the Sharipo wilks test and test for kurtosis and skewness. Results: The results showed the model the age, parity, marital status, region, knowledge of LARCs, availability of LARCs to be significantly associated with long acting contraceptive utilization with p value of less than 0.05. At the multivariate analysis level, women who had higher parities (0.000) tertiary education (0.013), no knowledge about LARCs (0.006) increases their probability of using LARCs. Furthermore while women age 45-49, those who live in the eastern region reduces their probability of using LARCs. Knowledge contribution: The findings of this study join the debate of prior research in this field and add to the body of knowledge related to long acting reversible contraception. An outstanding and queer finding from the study is the non-utilization of LARCs by women who are aware and have knowledge about them, this may be an opportunity for further research to investigate the attribution to this.

Keywords: contraception, long acting, utilization, women (15-49)

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1184 A Laser Instrument Rapid-E+ for Real-Time Measurements of Airborne Bioaerosols Such as Bacteria, Fungi, and Pollen

Authors: Minghui Zhang, Sirine Fkaier, Sabri Fernana, Svetlana Kiseleva, Denis Kiselev

Abstract:

The real-time identification of bacteria and fungi is difficult because they emit much weaker signals than pollen. In 2020, Plair developed Rapid-E+, which extends abilities of Rapid-E to detect smaller bioaerosols such as bacteria and fungal spores with diameters down to 0.3 µm, while keeping the similar or even better capability for measurements of large bioaerosols like pollen. Rapid-E+ enables simultaneous measurements of (1) time-resolved, polarization and angle dependent Mie scattering patterns, (2) fluorescence spectra resolved in 16 channels, and (3) fluorescence lifetime of individual particles. Moreover, (4) it provides 2D Mie scattering images which give the full information on particle morphology. The parameters of every single bioaerosol aspired into the instrument are subsequently analysed by machine learning. Firstly, pure species of microbes, e.g., Bacillus subtilis (a species of bacteria), and Penicillium chrysogenum (a species of fungal spores), were aerosolized in a bioaerosol chamber for Rapid-E+ training. Afterwards, we tested microbes under different concentrations. We used several steps of data analysis to classify and identify microbes. All single particles were analysed by the parameters of light scattering and fluorescence in the following steps. (1) They were treated with a smart filter block to get rid of non-microbes. (2) By classification algorithm, we verified the filtered particles were microbes based on the calibration data. (3) The probability threshold (defined by the user) step provides the probability of being microbes ranging from 0 to 100%. We demonstrate how Rapid-E+ identified simultaneously microbes based on the results of Bacillus subtilis (bacteria) and Penicillium chrysogenum (fungal spores). By using machine learning, Rapid-E+ achieved identification precision of 99% against the background. The further classification suggests the precision of 87% and 89% for Bacillus subtilis and Penicillium chrysogenum, respectively. The developed algorithm was subsequently used to evaluate the performance of microbe classification and quantification in real-time. The bacteria and fungi were aerosolized again in the chamber with different concentrations. Rapid-E+ can classify different types of microbes and then quantify them in real-time. Rapid-E+ enables classifying different types of microbes and quantifying them in real-time. Rapid-E+ can identify pollen down to species with similar or even better performance than the previous version (Rapid-E). Therefore, Rapid-E+ is an all-in-one instrument which classifies and quantifies not only pollen, but also bacteria and fungi. Based on the machine learning platform, the user can further develop proprietary algorithms for specific microbes (e.g., virus aerosols) and other aerosols (e.g., combustion-related particles that contain polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons).

Keywords: bioaerosols, laser-induced fluorescence, Mie-scattering, microorganisms

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1183 Distributional and Developmental Analysis of PM2.5 in Beijing, China

Authors: Alexander K. Guo

Abstract:

PM2.5 poses a large threat to people’s health and the environment and is an issue of large concern in Beijing, brought to the attention of the government by the media. In addition, both the United States Embassy in Beijing and the government of China have increased monitoring of PM2.5 in recent years, and have made real-time data available to the public. This report utilizes hourly historical data (2008-2016) from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing for the first time. The first objective was to attempt to fit probability distributions to the data to better predict a number of days exceeding the standard, and the second was to uncover any yearly, seasonal, monthly, daily, and hourly patterns and trends that may arise to better understand of air control policy. In these data, 66,650 hours and 2687 days provided valid data. Lognormal, gamma, and Weibull distributions were fit to the data through an estimation of parameters. The Chi-squared test was employed to compare the actual data with the fitted distributions. The data were used to uncover trends, patterns, and improvements in PM2.5 concentration over the period of time with valid data in addition to specific periods of time that received large amounts of media attention, analyzed to gain a better understanding of causes of air pollution. The data show a clear indication that Beijing’s air quality is unhealthy, with an average of 94.07µg/m3 across all 66,650 hours with valid data. It was found that no distribution fit the entire dataset of all 2687 days well, but each of the three above distribution types was optimal in at least one of the yearly data sets, with the lognormal distribution found to fit recent years better. An improvement in air quality beginning in 2014 was discovered, with the first five months of 2016 reporting an average PM2.5 concentration that is 23.8% lower than the average of the same period in all years, perhaps the result of various new pollution-control policies. It was also found that the winter and fall months contained more days in both good and extremely polluted categories, leading to a higher average but a comparable median in these months. Additionally, the evening hours, especially in the winter, reported much higher PM2.5 concentrations than the afternoon hours, possibly due to the prohibition of trucks in the city in the daytime and the increased use of coal for heating in the colder months when residents are home in the evening. Lastly, through analysis of special intervals that attracted media attention for either unnaturally good or bad air quality, the government’s temporary pollution control measures, such as more intensive road-space rationing and factory closures, are shown to be effective. In summary, air quality in Beijing is improving steadily and do follow standard probability distributions to an extent, but still needs improvement. Analysis will be updated when new data become available.

Keywords: Beijing, distribution, patterns, pm2.5, trends

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1182 Seismic Fragility for Sliding Failure of Weir Structure Considering the Process of Concrete Aging

Authors: HoYoung Son, Ki Young Kim, Woo Young Jung

Abstract:

This study investigated the change of weir structure performances when durability of concrete, which is the main material of weir structure, decreased due to their aging by mean of seismic fragility analysis. In the analysis, it was assumed that the elastic modulus of concrete was reduced by 10% in order to account for their aged deterioration. Additionally, the analysis of seismic fragility was based on Monte Carlo Simulation method combined with a 2D nonlinear finite element in ABAQUS platform with the consideration of deterioration of concrete. Finally, the comparison of seismic fragility of model pre- and post-deterioration was made to study the performance of weir. Results show that the probability of failure in moderate damage for deteriorated model was found to be larger than pre-deterioration model when peak ground acceleration (PGA) passed 0.4 g.

Keywords: weir, FEM, concrete, fragility, aging

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1181 Survey on Securing the Optimized Link State Routing (OLSR) Protocol in Mobile Ad-hoc Network

Authors: Kimaya Subhash Gaikwad, S. B. Waykar

Abstract:

The mobile ad-hoc network (MANET) is collection of various types of nodes. In MANET various protocols are used for communication. In OLSR protocol, a node is selected as multipoint relay (MPR) node which broadcast the messages. As the MANET is open kind of network any malicious node can easily enter into the network and affect the performance of the network. The performance of network mainly depends on the components which are taking part into the communication. If the proper nodes are not selected for the communication then the probability of network being attacked is more. Therefore, it is important to select the more reliable and secure components in the network. MANET does not have any filtering so that only selected nodes can be used for communication. The openness of the MANET makes it easier to attack the communication. The most of the attack are on the Quality of service (QoS) of the network. This paper gives the overview of the various attacks that are possible on OLSR protocol and some solutions. The papers focus mainly on the OLSR protocol.

Keywords: communication, MANET, OLSR, QoS

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1180 A Novel Model for Saturation Velocity Region of Graphene Nanoribbon Transistor

Authors: Mohsen Khaledian, Razali Ismail, Mehdi Saeidmanesh, Mahdiar Hosseinghadiry

Abstract:

A semi-analytical model for impact ionization coefficient of graphene nanoribbon (GNR) is presented. The model is derived by calculating probability of electrons reaching ionization threshold energy Et and the distance traveled by electron gaining Et. In addition, ionization threshold energy is semi-analytically modeled for GNR. We justify our assumptions using analytic modeling and comparison with simulation results. Gaussian simulator together with analytical modeling is used in order to calculate ionization threshold energy and Kinetic Monte Carlo is employed to calculate ionization coefficient and verify the analytical results. Finally, the profile of ionization is presented using the proposed models and simulation and the results are compared with that of silicon.

Keywords: nanostructures, electronic transport, semiconductor modeling, systems engineering

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1179 Secure Optimized Ingress Filtering in Future Internet Communication

Authors: Bander Alzahrani, Mohammed Alreshoodi

Abstract:

Information-centric networking (ICN) using architectures such as the Publish-Subscribe Internet Technology (PURSUIT) has been proposed as a new networking model that aims at replacing the current used end-centric networking model of the Internet. This emerged model focuses on what is being exchanged rather than which network entities are exchanging information, which gives the control plane functions such as routing and host location the ability to be specified according to the content items. The forwarding plane of the PURSUIT ICN architecture uses a simple and light mechanism based on Bloom filter technologies to forward the packets. Although this forwarding scheme solve many problems of the today’s Internet such as the growth of the routing table and the scalability issues, it is vulnerable to brute force attacks which are starting point to distributed- denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks. In this work, we design and analyze a novel source-routing and information delivery technique that keeps the simplicity of using Bloom filter-based forwarding while being able to deter different attacks such as denial of service attacks at the ingress of the network. To achieve this, special forwarding nodes called Edge-FW are directly attached to end user nodes and used to perform a security test for malicious injected random packets at the ingress of the path to prevent any possible attack brute force attacks at early stage. In this technique, a core entity of the PURSUIT ICN architecture called topology manager, that is responsible for finding shortest path and creating a forwarding identifiers (FId), uses a cryptographically secure hash function to create a 64-bit hash, h, over the formed FId for authentication purpose to be included in the packet. Our proposal restricts the attacker from injecting packets carrying random FIds with a high amount of filling factor ρ, by optimizing and reducing the maximum allowed filling factor ρm in the network. We optimize the FId to the minimum possible filling factor where ρ ≤ ρm, while it supports longer delivery trees, so the network scalability is not affected by the chosen ρm. With this scheme, the filling factor of any legitimate FId never exceeds the ρm while the filling factor of illegitimate FIds cannot exceed the chosen small value of ρm. Therefore, injecting a packet containing an FId with a large value of filling factor, to achieve higher attack probability, is not possible anymore. The preliminary analysis of this proposal indicates that with the designed scheme, the forwarding function can detect and prevent malicious activities such DDoS attacks at early stage and with very high probability.

Keywords: forwarding identifier, filling factor, information centric network, topology manager

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1178 Assessing Available Power from a Renewable Energy Source in the Southern Hemisphere using Anisotropic Model

Authors: Asowata Osamede, Trudy Sutherland

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to assess the available power from a Renewable Energy Source (off-grid photovoltaic (PV) panel) in the Southern Hemisphere using anisotropic model. Direct solar radiation is the driving force in photovoltaics. In a basic PV panels in the Southern Hemisphere, Power conversion is eminent, and this is achieved by the PV cells converting solar energy into electrical energy. In this research, the results was determined for a 6 month period from September 2022 through February 2023. Preliminary results, which include Normal Probability plot, data analysis - R2 value, effective conversion-time per week and work-time per day, indicate a favorably comparison between the empirical results and the simulation results.

Keywords: power-conversion, mathematical model, PV panels, DC-DC converters, direct solar radiation

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1177 System Survivability in Networks in the Context of Defense/Attack Strategies: The Large Scale

Authors: Asma Ben Yaghlane, Mohamed Naceur Azaiez, Mehdi Mrad

Abstract:

We investigate the large scale of networks in the context of network survivability under attack. We use appropriate techniques to evaluate and the attacker-based- and the defender-based-network survivability. The attacker is unaware of the operated links by the defender. Each attacked link has some pre-specified probability to be disconnected. The defender choice is so that to maximize the chance of successfully sending the flow to the destination node. The attacker however will select the cut-set with the highest chance to be disabled in order to partition the network. Moreover, we extend the problem to the case of selecting the best p paths to operate by the defender and the best k cut-sets to target by the attacker, for arbitrary integers p,k > 1. We investigate some variations of the problem and suggest polynomial-time solutions.

Keywords: defense/attack strategies, large scale, networks, partitioning a network

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1176 Socio-Economic Analysis of Water Saving Technologies in Agricultural Sector

Authors: Saeed Yazdani, F. Nekoofar

Abstract:

Considering the importance and scarcity of water resources, the efficient management of water resources is of great importance. In the agriculture sector, farmers are facilitated with various practices and technologies to encounter water insufficiency. This study aims to assess socio-economic factors affecting the application of water-saving technologies. A Logit method was employed to examine the impact of different variables on the use of water-saving technology. The required data was gathered from a sample of 204 farmers in 2021 in Alborz Province in Iran. The results indicate that different variables such as crop price variability, water sources, farm size, income, education, experience, membership in cooperatives have positive effects, and variables such as age and number of plots have negative effects on the probability of applying modern water-saving technologies.

Keywords: socio-economics, water, irrigation, water saving technologies, scarcity

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1175 A Novel Solution Methodology for Transit Route Network Design Problem

Authors: Ghada Moussa, Mamoud Owais

Abstract:

Transit Route Network Design Problem (TrNDP) is the most important component in Transit planning, in which the overall cost of the public transportation system highly depends on it. The main purpose of this study is to develop a novel solution methodology for the TrNDP, which goes beyond pervious traditional sophisticated approaches. The novelty of the solution methodology, adopted in this paper, stands on the deterministic operators which are tackled to construct bus routes. The deterministic manner of the TrNDP solution relies on using linear and integer mathematical formulations that can be solved exactly with their standard solvers. The solution methodology has been tested through Mandl’s benchmark network problem. The test results showed that the methodology developed in this research is able to improve the given network solution in terms of number of constructed routes, direct transit service coverage, transfer directness and solution reliability. Although the set of routes resulted from the methodology would stand alone as a final efficient solution for TrNDP, it could be used as an initial solution for meta-heuristic procedures to approach global optimal. Based on the presented methodology, a more robust network optimization tool would be produced for public transportation planning purposes.

Keywords: integer programming, transit route design, transportation, urban planning

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1174 Design of Geochemical Maps of Industrial City Using Gradient Boosting and Geographic Information System

Authors: Ruslan Safarov, Zhanat Shomanova, Yuri Nossenko, Zhandos Mussayev, Ayana Baltabek

Abstract:

Geochemical maps of distribution of polluting elements V, Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Mo, Cd, Pb on the territory of the Pavlodar city (Kazakhstan), which is an industrial hub were designed. The samples of soil were taken from 100 locations. Elemental analysis has been performed using XRF. The obtained data was used for training of the computational model with gradient boosting algorithm. The optimal parameters of model as well as the loss function were selected. The computational model was used for prediction of polluting elements concentration for 1000 evenly distributed points. Based on predicted data geochemical maps were created. Additionally, the total pollution index Zc was calculated for every from 1000 point. The spatial distribution of the Zc index was visualized using GIS (QGIS). It was calculated that the maximum coverage area of the territory of the Pavlodar city belongs to the moderately hazardous category (89.7%). The visualization of the obtained data allowed us to conclude that the main source of contamination goes from the industrial zones where the strategic metallurgical and refining plants are placed.

Keywords: Pavlodar, geochemical map, gradient boosting, CatBoost, QGIS, spatial distribution, heavy metals

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1173 Assessment of the Contribution of Geographic Information System Technology in Non Revenue Water: Case Study Dar Es Salaam Water and Sewerage Authority Kawe - Mzimuni Street

Authors: Victor Pesco Kassa

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This research deals with the assessment of the contribution of GIS Technology in NRW. This research was conducted at Dar, Kawe Mzimuni Street. The data collection was obtained from existing source which is DAWASA HQ. The interpretation of the data was processed by using ArcGIS software. The data collected from the existing source reveals a good coverage of DAWASA’s water network at Mzimuni Street. Most of residents are connected to the DAWASA’s customer service. Also the collected data revealed that by using GIS DAWASA’s customer Geodatabase has been improved. Through GIS we can prepare customer location map purposely for site surveying also this map will be able to show different type of customer that are connected to DAWASA’s water service. This is a perfect contribution of the GIS Technology to address and manage the problem of NRW in DAWASA. Finally, the study recommends that the same study should be conducted in other DAWASA’s zones such as Temeke, Boko and Bagamoyo not only at Kawe Mzimuni Street. Through this study it is observed that ArcGIS software can offer powerful tools for managing and processing information geographically and in water and sanitation authorities such as DAWASA.

Keywords: DAWASA, NRW, Esri, EURA, ArcGIS

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1172 Stochastic Nuisance Flood Risk for Coastal Areas

Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

Abstract:

The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed flood maps based on experts’ experience and estimates of the probability of flooding. Current flood-risk models evaluate flood risk with regional and subjective measures without impact from torrential rain and nuisance flooding at the neighborhood level. Nuisance flooding occurs in small areas in the community, where a few streets or blocks are routinely impacted. This type of flooding event occurs when torrential rainstorm combined with high tide and sea level rise temporarily exceeds a given threshold. In South Florida, this threshold is 1.7 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). The National Weather Service defines torrential rain as rain deposition at a rate greater than 0.3-inches per hour or three inches in a single day. Data from the Florida Climate Center, 1970 to 2020, shows 371 events with more than 3-inches of rain in a day in 612 months. The purpose of this research is to develop a data-driven method to determine comprehensive analytical damage-avoidance criteria that account for nuisance flood events at the single-family home level. The method developed uses the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method from the American Society of Quality (ASQ) to estimate the Damage Avoidance (DA) preparation for a 1-day 100-year storm. The Consequence of Nuisance Flooding (CoNF) is estimated from community mitigation efforts to prevent nuisance flooding damage. The Probability of Nuisance Flooding (PoNF) is derived from the frequency and duration of torrential rainfall causing delays and community disruptions to daily transportation, human illnesses, and property damage. Urbanization and population changes are related to the U.S. Census Bureau's annual population estimates. Data collected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service’s National Resources Inventory (NRI) and locally by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) track the development and land use/land cover changes with time. The intent is to include temporal trends in population density growth and the impact on land development. Results from this investigation provide the risk of nuisance flooding as a function of CoNF and PoNF for coastal areas of South Florida. The data-based criterion provides awareness to local municipalities on their flood-risk assessment and gives insight into flood management actions and watershed development.

Keywords: flood risk, nuisance flooding, urban flooding, FMEA

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1171 Abdominal Pregnancy with a Live Newborn in a Low Resource Setting: A Case Report

Authors: Olivier Mulisya, Guelord Barasima, Henry Mark Lugobe, Philémon Matumo, Bienfait Mumbere Vahwere, Hilaire Mutuka, Zawadi Léocadie, Wesley Lumika

Abstract:

Abdominal pregnancy is defined as pregnancy anywhere within the peritoneal cavity, exclusive of tubal, ovarian, or broad ligament locations. It is a rare form of ectopic pregnancy with high morbidity and mortality for both the mother and the fetus. Diagnosis can be frequently missed in most poor-resource settings because of poor antenatal coverage, low socioeconomic status in most of the patients as well as lack of adequate medical resources. Clinical diagnosis can be very difficult and an ultrasound scan is very helpful during the early stages of gestation but can also be disappointing in the later stages. We report a case of a 25-year-old woman with severe abdominal pain not amended with any medication. A clinical picture of shock lead to an emergency laparotomy which confirmed the diagnosis of abdominal pregnancy. The ministry of health in developing countries should make an effort to make routine early ultrasounds accessible to pregnant women, and obstetricians should keep in mind the possibility of ectopic pregnancy, irrespective of the gestational age.

Keywords: abdominal pregnancy, live new bron, ultrasound imaging, abdominal pain

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1170 The Future of Adventure Tourism in a Warmer World: An Exploratory Study of Mountain Guides’ Perception of Environmental Change in Canada

Authors: Brooklyn Rushton, Michelle Rutty, Natalie Knowles, Daniel Scott

Abstract:

As people are increasingly on the search for extraordinary experiences and connections with nature, adventure tourism is experiencing significant growth and providing tourists with life-changing experiences. Unlike built attraction-based tourism, adventure tourism relies entirely on natural heritage, which leaves communities dependent on adventure tourism extremely vulnerable to environmental and climatic changes. A growing body of evidence suggests that global climate change will influence the future of adventure tourism and mountain outdoor recreation opportunities on a global scale. Across Canada, more specifically, climate change is broadly anticipated to present risks for winter-snow sports, while opportunities are anticipated to arise for green season activities. These broad seasonal shifts do not account for the indirect impacts of climate change on adventure tourism, such as the cost of adaptation or the increase of natural hazards and the associated likelihood of accidents. While some research has examined the impact of climate change on natural environments that adventure tourism relies on, a very small body of research has specifically focused on guides’ perspectives or included hard adventure tourism activities. The guiding industry is unique, as guides are trained through an elegant blend of art and science to make decisions based on experience, observation, and intuition. While quantitative research can monitor change in natural environments, guides local knowledge can provide eye-witness accounts and outline what environmental changes mean for the future sustainability of adventure tourism. This research will capture the extensive knowledge of mountain guides to better understand the implications of climate change for mountain adventure and potential adaptive responses for the adventure tourism industry. This study uses a structured online survey with open and close-ended questions that will be administered using Qualtrics (an online survey platform). This survey is disseminated to current members of the Association of Canadian Mountain Guides (ACMG). Participation in this study will be exclusive to members of the ACMG operating in the outdoor guiding streams. The 25 survey questions are organized into four sections: demographic and professional operation (9 questions), physical change (4 questions), climate change perception (6 questions), and climate change adaptation (6 questions). How mountain guides perceive and respond to climate change is important knowledge for the future of the expanding adventure tourism industry. Results from this study are expected to provide important information to mountain destinations on climate change vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Expected results of this study include guides insight into: (1) experience-safety relevant observed physical changes in guided regions (i.e. glacial coverage, permafrost coverage, precipitation, temperature, and slope instability) (2) changes in hazards within the guiding environment (i.e. avalanches, rockfall, icefall, forest fires, flooding, and extreme weather events), (3) existing and potential adaptation strategies, and (4) key information and other barriers for adaptation. By gaining insight from the knowledge of mountain guides, this research can help the tourism industry at large understand climate risk and create adaptation strategies to ensure the resiliency of the adventure tourism industry.

Keywords: adventure tourism, climate change, environmental change, mountain hazards

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1169 Black-Box-Base Generic Perturbation Generation Method under Salient Graphs

Authors: Dingyang Hu, Dan Liu

Abstract:

DNN (Deep Neural Network) deep learning models are widely used in classification, prediction, and other task scenarios. To address the difficulties of generic adversarial perturbation generation for deep learning models under black-box conditions, a generic adversarial ingestion generation method based on a saliency map (CJsp) is proposed to obtain salient image regions by counting the factors that influence the input features of an image on the output results. This method can be understood as a saliency map attack algorithm to obtain false classification results by reducing the weights of salient feature points. Experiments also demonstrate that this method can obtain a high success rate of migration attacks and is a batch adversarial sample generation method.

Keywords: adversarial sample, gradient, probability, black box

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1168 Research on ARQ Transmission Technique in Mars Detection Telecommunications System

Authors: Zhongfei Cai, Hui He, Changsheng Li

Abstract:

This paper studied in the automatic repeat request (ARQ) transmission technique in Mars detection telecommunications system. An ARQ method applied to proximity-1 space link protocol was proposed by this paper. In order to ensure the efficiency of data reliable transmission, this ARQ method combined these different ARQ maneuvers characteristics. Considering the Mars detection communication environments, this paper analyzed the characteristics of the saturation throughput rate, packet dropping probability, average delay and energy efficiency with different ARQ algorithms. Combined thus results with the theories of ARQ transmission technique, an ARQ transmission project in Mars detection telecommunications system was established. The simulation results showed that this algorithm had excellent saturation throughput rate and energy efficiency with low complexity.

Keywords: ARQ, mars, CCSDS, proximity-1, deepspace

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1167 Systemic Approach to Risk Measurement of Drainage Systems in Urban Areas

Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: risk management, drainage system, urban areas, urban floods

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1166 Use of Vegetative Coverage for Slope Stability in the Brazilian Midwest: Case Study

Authors: Weber A. R. Souza, Andre A. N. Dantas, Marcio A. Medeiros, Rafaella F. Costa

Abstract:

The erosive processes are natural phenomena that cause changes in the soil continuously due to the actions of natural erosive agents and their speed can be intensified or retarded by factors such as climate, inclination, type of matrix rock, vegetation and anthropic activities, the latter being very relevant in occupied areas without planning and urban infrastructure. Inadequate housing sites associated with an inefficient urban drainage network and lack of vegetation cover potentiate the erosive processes that, over time, are gaining alarming proportions, as is the case of the erosion in Planaltina in Federal district, a Brazilian state in the central west. Thus, the aim of this work was to compare the use of Vetiver grass and Alfalfa as vegetation cover to slope protection. For that, a study was carried out in the scientific literature about the improvement of the soil properties provided by them and verification of the safety factor through the simulation of slopes with different heights and inclination using SLOPE / W software. The Vetiver grass presented little more satisfactory results than the Alfalfa, but these obtained results slightly closer to that of the vetiver grass in less time of planting.

Keywords: erosive processes, planting, slope protection, vegetation cover

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1165 Unravelling the Impact of Job Resources: Alleviating Job-Related Anxiety to Forster Employee Creativity Within the Oil and Gas Industry

Authors: Nana Kojo Ayimadu Baafi, Kwesi Amponsah-Tawiah

Abstract:

The study investigated the relationship between job-related anxiety and employee creativity. The study further explored the role of job resources in moderating the relationship between job-related anxiety and employee creativity within the oil and gas industries. The study utilized a cross-sectional survey design. A non-probability sampling technique, specifically convenience sampling, was used to sample 1200 participants from multiple companies within the oil and gas industries. The collected data were analyzed using Regression analysis and PROCESS macro for the moderation analysis. The study empirically demonstrated a negative significant relationship between job-related anxiety and employee creativity. It also exhibited that job resources moderated the relationship between job-related anxiety and creativity. This study addresses gaps in previous studies by highlighting the significance of job resources in how job-related anxiety affects employee creativity.

Keywords: employee creativity, job-related anxiety, job resource, human resources

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1164 The Relationship of Television Viewers with Brand Awareness and Brand Loyalty: A Case Study of Bangkok, Thailand

Authors: Natnicha Hasoontree

Abstract:

The purposes of this research was to study the relationship of television viewers with brand awareness and brand loyalty from the perspective of customers in Bangkok. A probability random sampling of 482 television viewers was utilized. A Likert-five-scale questionnaire was designed to collect the data and small in-depth interviews were also used to obtain their opinions. The findings revealed that the majority of respondents reported a positive relationship between time of viewing television and brand awareness and brand loyalty. The more they watched the advertisement of a particular brand, the more positive the information was perceived and thereby increasing brand loyalty. Finally, the findings from the in-depth interviews with small group of television producers revealed that they are convinced that advertising exposure had a positive impact on brand awareness and brand loyalty.

Keywords: brand awareness, brand loyalty, television viewers, advertisement

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1163 Combating Corruption to Enhance Learner Academic Achievement: A Qualitative Study of Zimbabwean Public Secondary Schools

Authors: Onesmus Nyaude

Abstract:

The aim of the study was to investigate participants’ views on how corruption can be combated to enhance learner academic achievement. The study was undertaken on three select public secondary institutions in Zimbabwe. This study also focuses on exploring the various views of educators; parents and the learners on the role played by corruption in perpetuating the seemingly existing learner academic achievement disparities in various educational institutions. The study further interrogates and examines the nexus between the prevalence of corruption in schools and the subsequent influence on the academic achievement of learners. Corruption is considered a form of social injustice; hence in Zimbabwe, the general consensus is that it is perceived rife to the extent that it is overtaking the traditional factors that contributed to the poor academic achievement of learners. Coupled to this, have been the issue of gross abuse of power and some malpractices emanating from concealment of essential and official transactions in the conduct of business. Through proposing robust anti-corruption mechanisms, teaching and learning resources poured in schools would be put into good use. This would prevent the unlawful diversion and misappropriation of the resources in question which has always been the culture. This study is of paramount significance to curriculum planners, teachers, parents, and learners. The study was informed by the interpretive paradigm; thus qualitative research approaches were used. Both probability and non-probability sampling techniques were adopted in ‘site and participants’ selection. A representative sample of (150) participants was used. The study found that the majority of the participants perceived corruption as a social problem and a human right threat affecting the quality of teaching and learning processes in the education sector. It was established that corruption prevalence within institutions is as a result of the perpetual weakening of ethical values and other variables linked to upholding of ‘Ubuntu’ among general citizenry. It was further established that greediness and weak systems are major causes of rampant corruption within institutions of higher learning and are manifesting through abuse of power, bribery, misappropriation and embezzlement of material and financial resources. Therefore, there is great need to collectively address the problem of corruption in educational institutions and society at large. The study additionally concludes that successful combating of corruption will promote successful moral development of students as well as safeguarding their human rights entitlements. The study recommends the adoption of principles of good corporate governance within educational institutions in order to successfully curb corruption. The study further recommends the intensification of interventionist strategies and strengthening of systems in educational institutions as well as regular audits to overcome the problem associated with rampant corruption cases.

Keywords: academic achievement, combating, corruption, good corporate governance, qualitative study

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1162 The Social Perception of National Security Risks: A Comparative Perspective

Authors: Nicula Valentin, Andrei Virginia

Abstract:

Nowadays, the individual plays a central role in the state’s architecture. This is why the subjective dimension of the security represents a key concept in risk assessment. The paper’s scope is to emphasize the discrepancy between expert and lay evaluations of national security hazards, which is caused by key factors like emotions, personal experience, knowledge and media. Therefore, we have chosen to apply, using these two different groups of respondents, the Q-sort method, which reveals individual beliefs, attitudes, preferences hidden behind the subjects’ own way of prioritizing the risks they are confronted with. Our study’s conclusions are meant to unveil significant indicators needed to be taken into consideration by a state’s leadership in order to understand the social perception of national security hazards, to communicate better with the public opinion and prevent or mitigate the overestimation of the severity or probability of these dangers.

Keywords: risk perception, Q-sort method, national security hazards, individual beliefs

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