Search results for: Risk Factors

Authors: Shin-Hyung Cho, Dong-Kyu Kim, Seung-Young Kho

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Truck-involved crashes have higher crash severity than non-truck-involved crashes. There have been many studies about the frequency of crashes and the development of severity models, but those studies only analyzed the relationship between observed variables. To identify why more people are injured or killed when trucks are involved in the crash, we must examine to quantify the complex causal relationship between severity of the crash and risk factors by adopting the latent factors of crashes. The aim of this study was to develop a structural equation or model based on truck-involved and non-truck-involved crashes, including five latent variables, i.e. a crash factor, environmental factor, road factor, driver’s factor, and severity factor. To clarify the unique characteristics of truck-involved crashes compared to non-truck-involved crashes, a confirmatory analysis method was used. To develop the model, we extracted crash data from 10,083 crashes on Korean freeways from 2008 through 2014. The results showed that the most significant variable affecting the severity of a crash is the crash factor, which can be expressed by the location, cause, and type of the crash. For non-truck-involved crashes, the crash and environment factors increase severity of the crash; conversely, the road and driver factors tend to reduce severity of the crash. For truck-involved crashes, the driver factor has a significant effect on severity of the crash although its effect is slightly less than the crash factor. The multiple group analysis employed to analyze the differences between the heterogeneous groups of drivers.

Keywords: crash severity, structural structural equation modeling (SEM), truck-involved crashes, multiple group analysis, crash on freeway

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Authors: Mathias Linden, André Schneider, Harald F. O. von Korflesch

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The risk of train accidents is an ongoing concern for railway organizations, governments, insurance companies and other depended sectors. Safety technologies are installed to reduce and to prevent potential damages of train accidents. Since the budgetary for the safety of railway organizations is limited, it is necessary not only to achieve a high availability and high safety standard but also to be cost effective. Therefore, an economic assessment of safety technologies is fundamental to create an accurate risk analysis. In order to conduct an economical assessment of a railway safety technology and a quantification of the costs of the accident causes, the Global Railway Accident Database & Evaluation (GRADE) has been developed. The aim of this paper is to describe the structure of this accident database and to show how it can be used for risk analyses. A number of risk analysis methods, such as the probabilistic safety assessment method (PSA), was used to demonstrate this accident database’s different possibilities of risk analysis. In conclusion, it can be noted that these analyses would not be as accurate without GRADE. The information gathered in the accident database was not available in this way before. Our findings are relevant for railway operators, safety technology suppliers, assurances, governments and other concerned railway organizations.

Keywords: accident causes, accident costs, accident database, global railway accident database & evaluation, GRADE, probabilistic safety assessment, PSA, railway accidents, risk analysis

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Authors: Merih Welay Welesilassie

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Understanding educators' readiness to incorporate AI tools into their teaching methods requires comprehensively examining the influencing factors. This understanding is crucial, given the potential of these technologies to personalise learning experiences, improve instructional effectiveness, and foster innovative pedagogical approaches. This study evaluated factors affecting teachers' adoption of AI tools in their English language instruction by extending the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) to encompass digital readiness support, perceived risk, and trust. A cross-sectional quantitative survey was conducted with 128 English language teachers, supplemented by qualitative data collection from 15 English teachers. The structural mode analysis indicated that implementing AI tools in Ethiopian higher education was notably influenced by digital readiness support, perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, perceived risk, and trust. Digital readiness support positively impacted perceived ease of use, usefulness, and trust while reducing safety and privacy risks. Perceived ease of use positively correlated with perceived usefulness but negatively influenced trust. Furthermore, perceived usefulness strengthened trust in AI tools, while perceived safety and privacy risks significantly undermined trust. Trust was crucial in increasing educators' willingness to adopt AI technologies. The qualitative analysis revealed that the teachers exhibited strong content and pedagogical knowledge but needed more technology-related knowledge. Moreover, It was found that the teachers did not utilise digital tools to teach English. The study identified several obstacles to incorporating digital tools into English lessons, such as insufficient digital infrastructure, a shortage of educational resources, inadequate professional development opportunities, and challenging policies and governance. The findings provide valuable guidance for educators, inform policymakers about creating supportive digital environments, and offer a foundation for further investigation into technology adoption in educational settings in Ethiopia and similar contexts.

Keywords: digital readiness support, AI acceptance, risk, trust

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Authors: Zineb Emrane

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This abstract addresses the issue of radicalization of young people in a context with background of radicalization, in North of Morocco, 5 terrorist of Madrid's Attacts on 11th March, were coming from this context. It were developed a study pilot that describing young people perception about the main causes that lead and motivate for radicalization. Whenever we talk about this topic, we obtain information from studies and investigations by specialists in field, but we don’t give voice to the protagonists who in many cases are victims, specifically, young people at social risk because of social factors. Extremist radicalization is an expanding phenomenon, that affect young people, in north of Morocco. They live in a context with radical background and at risk of social exclusion, their social, economic and familiar needs make them vulnerable. The extremist groups take advantage of this vulnerability to involve them in a process of radicalization, offering them an alternative environment where they can found all they are looking for. This study pilot approaches the main causes that lead and motivates young people to become radicals, analyzing their context with emphasis on influencing factors, and bearing in mind the analysis of young people about how the radical background affect them and their opinion this phenomenon. The pilot study was carried out through the following actions: - Group dynamics with young people to analyze the process of violent radicalization of young people. -A participatory workshop with members of organizations that work directly with young people at risk of radicalization. -Interviews with institutional managers -Participant observation. The implementation of actions has led to the conclusion that young people define violent radicalization as a sequential process, depending on the stage, it can be deconstructed. Young people recognize that they stop feeling belonging to their family, school and neighborhood when they see behavior contrary to what they consider good and evil. The emotional rupture and the search for references outside their circle, push them to sympathize with groups that have an extremist ideology and that offer them what they need. The radicalization is a process with different stages, the main causes and the factors which lead young people to use extremist violence are related their low level of belonging feeling to their context, and lack of critical thinking about important issues. The young people are in a vulnerable stage, searching their identity, a space in which they can be accepted, and when they don't find it they are easily manipulated and susceptible to being attracted by extremist groups.

Keywords: exclusion, radicalization, vulnerability, youth

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Authors: Chatelier Charlene, Oyegoke Adekunle, Ajayi Saheed, Jeffries Andrew

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This study seeks to understand Schedule Risk Assessments as a priori for better performance whilst exploring the strategies employed to deliver complex projects like the New Polar research ship. This high-profile vessel was offered to Natural Environment Research Council and British Antarctic Survey (BAS) by Cammell Laird Shipbuilders. The Research Ship was designed to support science in extreme environments, with the expectancy to provide a wide range of specialist scientific facilities, instruments, and laboratories to conduct research over multiple disciplines. Aim: The focus is to understand the allocation and management of schedule risk on such a Major Project. Hypothesising that "effective management of schedule risk management" could be the most critical factor in determining whether the intended benefits mentioned are delivered within time and cost constraints. Objective 1: Firstly, the study seeks to understand the allocation and management of schedule risk in Major Projects. Objective 2: Secondly, it explores "effective management of schedule risk management" as the most critical factor determining the delivery of intended benefits. Methodology: This study takes a retrospective review of schedule risk management and how it influences project performance using a case study approach for the RRS (Royal Research Ship) Sir David Attenborough. Research Contribution: The outcomes of this study will contribute to a better understanding of project performance whilst building on its under-researched relationship to schedule risk management for complex projects. The outcomes of this paper will guide further research on project performance and enable the understanding of how risk-based estimates over time impact the overall risk management of the project.

Keywords: complexity, major projects, performance management, schedule risk management, uncertainty

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Authors: Jihene Bettaieb, Ghassen kharroubi, Rym mallekh, Ines Cherif, Taoufik Atawa, Kaouther Harrabech

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Brucellosis is a major worldwide zoonosis. It is a reportable condition in Tunisia where the disease remains endemic, especially in rural areas. The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiological, clinical, and bacteriological profile of human brucellosis cases notified in the district of Tunis. It was a retrospective descriptive study of cases reported in the district of Tunis through the national surveillance system between the 1st January and 31th December 2017. During the study period, 133 brucellosis confirmed cases were notified. The mean age was 37.5 ± 18.0 years, and 54.9% of cases were males. More than four-fifths (82.7%) of cases were reported in spring and summer with a peak in the month of May (36 cases). Fever and sweats were the most common symptoms; they occurred in 95% and 72% of cases, respectively. Osteoarticular complications occurred in 10 cases, meningitis in one case and endocarditis in one other case. Wright agglutination test and Rose Bengale test were positive in 100% and 91% of cases, respectively. While blood culture was positive in 9 cases and PCR in 2 cases. Brucella melitensis was the only identified specie (9 cases). Almost all cases (99.2%) reported the habit of consuming raw dairy products. Only 5 cases had a suspect contact with animals; among them, 3 persons were livestock breeders. The transmission was essentially due to raw dairy product consumption. It is important to enhance preventive measures to control animal Brucellosis and to educate the population regarding the risk factors of the disease.

Keywords: brucellosis, risk factors, surveillance system, Tunisia

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Authors: Safia Hocine, Djamil Aïssani

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Risk models, recently studied in the literature, are becoming increasingly complex. It is rare to find explicit analytical relations to calculate the ruin probability. Indeed, the stability issue occurs naturally in ruin theory, when parameters in risk cannot be estimated than with uncertainty. However, in most cases, there are no explicit formulas for the ruin probability. Hence, the interest to obtain explicit stability bounds for these probabilities in different risk models. In this paper, we interest to the stability bounds of the univariate classical risk model established using the regenerative processes approach. By adopting an algorithmic approach, we implement this approximation and determine numerically the bounds of ruin probability in the case of large claims (heavy-tailed distribution).

Keywords: heavy-tailed distribution, large claims, regenerative process, risk model, ruin probability, stability

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Authors: James Kinyua Gitonga, Toshio Fujimi

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Vulnerability assessment and analysis is essential to solving the degree of damage and loss as a result of natural disasters. Urban flooding causes a major economic loss and casualties, at Mathare residential area in Nairobi, Kenya. High population caused by rural-urban migration, Unemployment, and unplanned urban development are among factors that increase flood vulnerability in Mathare area. This study aims to analyse flood risk physical vulnerabilities in Mathare based on scientific data, research data that includes the Rainfall data, River Mathare discharge rate data, Water runoff data, field survey data and questionnaire survey through sampling of the study area have been used to develop the risk curves. Three structural types of building were identified in the study area, vulnerability and risk curves were made for these three structural types by plotting the relationship between flood depth and damage for each structural type. The results indicate that the structural type with mud wall and mud floor is the most vulnerable building to flooding while the structural type with stone walls and concrete floor is least vulnerable. The vulnerability of building contents is mainly determined by the number of floors, where households with two floors are least vulnerable, and households with a one floor are most vulnerable. Therefore more than 80% of the residential buildings including the property in the building are highly vulnerable to floods consequently exposed to high risk. When estimating the potential casualties/injuries we discovered that the structural types of houses were major determinants where the mud/adobe structural type had casualties of 83.7% while the Masonry structural type had casualties of 10.71% of the people living in these houses. This research concludes that flood awareness, warnings and observing the building codes will enable reduce damage to the structural types of building, deaths and reduce damage to the building contents.

Keywords: flood loss, Mathare Nairobi, risk curve analysis, vulnerability

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Authors: Sherly M. A., Subhankar Karmakar, Terence Chan, Christian Rau

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Floods are one of the most frequent natural disasters, causing widespread devastation, economic damage and threat to human lives. Hydrologic impacts of climate change and intensification of urbanization are two root causes of increased flood occurrences, and recent research trends are oriented towards understanding these aspects. Due to rapid urbanization, population of cities across the world has increased exponentially leading to improperly planned developments. Climate change due to natural and anthropogenic activities on our environment has resulted in spatiotemporal changes in rainfall patterns. The combined effect of both aggravates the vulnerability of urban populations to floods. In this context, an efficient and effective flood risk management with its core component as flood risk mapping is essential in prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Urban flood risk mapping involves zoning of an urban region based on its flood risk, which depicts the spatiotemporal pattern of frequency and severity of hazards, exposure to hazards, and degree of vulnerability of the population in terms of socio-economic, environmental and infrastructural aspects. Although vulnerability is a key component of risk, its assessment and mapping is often less advanced than hazard mapping and quantification. A synergic effort from technical experts and social scientists is vital for the effectiveness of flood risk management programs. Despite an increasing volume of quality research conducted on urban flood risk, a comprehensive multidisciplinary approach towards flood risk mapping still remains neglected due to which many of the input parameters and definitions of flood risk concepts are imprecise. Thus, the objectives of this review are to introduce and precisely define the relevant input parameters, concepts and terms in urban flood risk mapping, along with its methodology, current status and limitations. The review also aims at providing thought-provoking insights to potential future researchers and flood management professionals.

Keywords: flood risk, flood hazard, flood vulnerability, flood modeling, urban flooding, urban flood risk mapping

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Authors: Mohamed El-Bady

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The Northern Egyptian Lagoons are (from east to west) Bardawil Lagoon, Manzala Lagoon, Burullus Lagoon, Edku Lagoons and Mariute Lagoon. These lagoons have been received the bulk of drainage water from the lands of Delta and from the other coastal areas. Where, the heavy metals can occur in Lagoons environments through a variety of sources, including industries, wastewaters and domestic effluents. The potential ecological risk index (RI) calculation of the bottom sediments of the northern lagoons depends on contamination factor (CF), potential ecological risk factor and proposed toxic response factor (Tr). Each lagoon with special indices according to its conditions.

Keywords: Northern Lagoons, Nile Delta, ecological risk index, contamination factor

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Authors: Betty Johanna Garzon Rozo, Jonathan Crook, Fernando Moreira

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Operational risk losses are heavy tailed and are likely to be asymmetric and extremely dependent among business lines/event types. We propose a new methodology to assess, in a multivariate way, the asymmetry and extreme dependence between severity distributions, and to calculate the capital for Operational Risk. This methodology simultaneously uses (i) several parametric distributions and an alternative mix distribution (the Lognormal for the body of losses and the Generalized Pareto Distribution for the tail) via extreme value theory using SAS®, (ii) the multivariate skew t-copula applied for the first time for operational losses and (iii) Bayesian theory to estimate new n-dimensional skew t-copula models via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. This paper analyses a newly operational loss data set, SAS Global Operational Risk Data [SAS OpRisk], to model operational risk at international financial institutions. All the severity models are constructed in SAS® 9.2. We implement the procedure PROC SEVERITY and PROC NLMIXED. This paper focuses in describing this implementation.

Keywords: operational risk, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, copulas

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Authors: Nicula Valentin, Andrei Virginia

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Nowadays, the individual plays a central role in the state’s architecture. This is why the subjective dimension of the security represents a key concept in risk assessment. The paper’s scope is to emphasize the discrepancy between expert and lay evaluations of national security hazards, which is caused by key factors like emotions, personal experience, knowledge and media. Therefore, we have chosen to apply, using these two different groups of respondents, the Q-sort method, which reveals individual beliefs, attitudes, preferences hidden behind the subjects’ own way of prioritizing the risks they are confronted with. Our study’s conclusions are meant to unveil significant indicators needed to be taken into consideration by a state’s leadership in order to understand the social perception of national security hazards, to communicate better with the public opinion and prevent or mitigate the overestimation of the severity or probability of these dangers.

Keywords: risk perception, Q-sort method, national security hazards, individual beliefs

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Authors: Jean-michel Sahut, Lubica Hikkerova, Wissal Ben Arfi

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The Internet of Things (IoT) emerged over the last few decades in many fields. Healthcare can significantly benefit from IoT. This study aims to examine factors influencing the adoption of IoT in eHealth. To do so, an innovative framework has been developed which applies both the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and the United Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model and builds on them by analyzing trust and perceived-risk dimensions to predict intention to use IoT in eHealth. In terms of methodology, a Partial Least Approach Structural Equation Modelling was carried out on a sample of 267 French users. The findings of this research support the significant positive effect of constructs set out in the TAM (perceived ease of use) on predicting behavioral intention by adding the effects identified for UTAUT variables. This research also demonstrates how perceived risk and trust are significant factors for models examining behavioral intentions to use IoT. Perceived risk enhanced by the trust has a significant effect on patients’ behavioral intentions. Moreover, the results highlight the key role of prescription as a moderator of IoT adoption in eHealth. Depending on whether an individual has a prescription to use connected devices or not, ease of use has a stronger impact on adoption, while trust has a negative impact on adoption for users without a prescription. In accordance with the empirical results, several practical implications can be proposed. All connected devices applied in a medical context should be divided into groups according to their functionality: whether they are essential for the patient’s health and whether they require a prescription or not. Devices used with a prescription are easily accepted because the intention to use them is moderated by the medical trust (discussed above). For users without a prescription, ease of use is a more significant factor than for users who have a prescription. This suggests that currently, connected e-Health devices and online healthcare systems have to take this factor into account to better meet the needs and expectations of end-users.

Keywords: internet of things, Healthcare, trust, consumer acceptance

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Authors: Pellecchia M. T., Savarese G., Carpinelli L., Calabrese M.

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Introduction: Parkinson's disease (PD) is characterized by a progressive loss of autonomy which undoubtedly has a significant impact on the quality of life of caregivers, and parents are the main informal caregivers. Caring for a person with PD is associated with an increased risk of psychiatric morbidity and persistent anxiety-depressive distress. The aim of the study is to investigate the burden on caregivers of patients with PD, through the use of multidimensional scales and to identify their personological and environmental determinants. Methods: The study has been approved by the Ethic Committee of the University of Salerno and informed consent for participation to the study was obtained from patients and their caregivers. The study was conducted at the Neurology Department of the A.O.U. "San Giovanni di Dio and Ruggi D’Aragona" of Salerno between September 2020 and May 2021. Materials: The questionnaires used were: a) Caregiver Burden Inventory - CBI a questionnaire of 24 items that allow identifying five sub-categories of burden (objective, psychological, physical, social, emotional); b) Depression Anxiety Stress Scales Short Version - DASS-21 questionnaire consisting of 21 items and valid in examining three distinct but interrelated areas (depression, anxiety and stress); c) Family Strain Questionnaire Short Form - FSQ-SF is a questionnaire of 30 items grouped in areas of increasing psychological risk (OK, R, SR, U); d) Zarit Caregiver Burden Inventory - ZBI, consisting of 22 items based on the analysis of two main factors: personal stress and pressure related to his role; e) Life Satisfaction, a single item that aims to evaluate the degree of life satisfaction in a global way using a 0-100 Likert scale. Findings: N ° 29 caregivers (M age = 55.14, SD = 9.859; 69% F) participated in the study. 20.6% of the sample had severe and severe burden (CBI score = M = 26.31; SD = 22.43) and 13.8% of participants had moderate to severe burden (ZBI). The FSQ-SF highlighted a minority of caregivers who need psychological support, in some cases urgent (Area SR and Area U). The DASS-21 results show a prevalence of stress-related symptoms (M = 10.90, SD = 10.712) compared to anxiety (M = 7.52, SD = 10.752) and depression (M = 8, SD = 10.876). There are significant correlations between some specific variables and mean test scores: retired caregivers report higher ZBI scores (p = 0.423) and lower Life Satisfaction levels (p = -0.460) than working caregivers; years of schooling show a negative linear correlation with the ZBI score (p = -0.491). The T-Test indicates that caregivers of patients with cognitive impairment are at greater risk than those of patients without cognitive impairment. Conclusions: It knows the factors that affect the burden the most would allow for early recognition of risky situations and caregivers who would need adequate support.

Keywords: anxious-depressive axis, caregivers’ burden, Parkinson’ disease, psychological risks

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Authors: A van Onselen, C. M. Walsh, F. J. Veldman, C. Brand

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Objectives: To determine the nutritional status and risk factors associated with women practicing geophagia in QwaQwa, South Africa. Materials and Methods: An observational epidemiological study design was adopted which included an exposed (geophagia) and non-exposed (control) group. A food frequency questionnaire, anthropometric measurements and blood sampling were applied to determine nutritional status of participants. Logistic regression analysis was performed in order to identify factors that were likely to be associated with the practice of geophagia. Results: The mean total energy intake for the geophagia group (G) and control group(C) were 10324.31 ± 2755.00 kJ and 10763.94 ± 2556.30 kJ respectively. Both groups fell within the overweight category according to the mean body mass index (BMI) of each group (G= 25.59 kg/m2; C= 25.14 kg/m2). The mean serum iron levels of the geophagia group (6.929 μmol/l) were significantly lower than that of the control group (13.75 μmol/l) (p = 0.000). Serum transferrin (G=3.23g/l; C=2.7054g/l) and serum transferrin saturation (G=8.05%; C=18.74%) levels also differed significantly between groups (p=0.00). Factors that were associated with the practice of geophagia included haemoglobin (Odds ratio (OR):14.50), serum-iron (OR: 9.80), serum-ferritin (OR: 3.75), serum-transferrin (OR: 6.92) and transferrin saturation (OR: 14.50). A significant negative association (p=0.014) was found between women who were wage-earners and those who were not wage-earners and the practice of geophagia (OR: 0.143; CI: 0.027; 0.755). These findings seem to indicate that a permanent income may decrease the likelihood of practising geophagia. Key findings: Geophagia was confirmed to be a risk factor for iron deficiency in this community. The significantly strong association between geophagia and iron deficiency emphasizes the importance of identifying the practice of geophagia in women, especially during their child bearing years. Further research to establish whether the practice of geophagia is a cause of iron-deficiency, or whether it is the consequence thereof, would give a clearer view on how to recognise and treat the condition.

Keywords: geophagia, iron deficiency anaemia, dietary intake, anthropometry

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Authors: Susan Thurstans, Natalie Sessions, Carmel Dolan, Kate Sadler, Bernardette Cichon, Shelia Isanaka, Dominique Roberfroid, Heather Stobagh, Patrick Webb, Tanya Khara

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For many years, wasting and stunting have been viewed as separate conditions without clear evidence supporting this distinction. In 2014, the Emergency Nutrition Network (ENN) examined the relationship between wasting and stunting and published a report highlighting the evidence for linkages between the two forms of undernutrition. This systematic review aimed to update the evidence generated since this 2014 report to better understand the implications for improving child nutrition, health and survival. Following PRISMA guidelines, this review was conducted using search terms to describe the relationship between wasting and stunting. Studies related to children under five from low- and middle-income countries that assessed both ponderal growth/wasting and linear growth/stunting, as well as the association between the two, were included. Risk of bias was assessed in all included studies using SIGN checklists. 45 studies met the inclusion criteria- 39 peer reviewed studies, 1 manual chapter, 3 pre-print publications and 2 published reports. The review found that there is a strong association between the two conditions whereby episodes of wasting contribute to stunting and, to a lesser extent, stunting leads to wasting. Possible interconnected physiological processes and common risk factors drive an accumulation of vulnerabilities. Peak incidence of both wasting and stunting was found to be between birth and three months. A significant proportion of children experience concurrent wasting and stunting- Country level data suggests that up to 8% of children under 5 may be both wasted and stunted at the same time, global estimates translate to around 16 million children. Children with concurrent wasting and stunting have an elevated risk of mortality when compared to children with one deficit alone. These children should therefore be considered a high-risk group in the targeting of treatment. Wasting, stunting and concurrent wasting and stunting appear to be more prevalent in boys than girls and it appears that concurrent wasting and stunting peaks between 12- 30 months of age with younger children being the most affected. Seasonal patterns in prevalence of both wasting and stunting are seen in longitudinal and cross sectional data and in particular season of birth has been shown to have an impact on a child’s subsequent experience of wasting and stunting. Evidence suggests that the use of mid-upper-arm circumference combined with weight-for-age Z-score might effectively identify children most at risk of near-term mortality, including those concurrently wasted and stunted. Wasting and stunting frequently occur in the same child, either simultaneously or at different moments through their life course. Evidence suggests there is a process of accumulation of nutritional deficits and therefore risk over the life course of a child demonstrates the need for a more integrated approach to prevention and treatment strategies to interrupt this process. To achieve this, undernutrition policies, programmes, financing and research must become more unified.

Keywords: Concurrent wasting and stunting, Review, Risk factors, Undernutrition

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Authors: Thirumila Muthukamaru

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The objective of a Health Risk Assessment (HRA) is to achieve a quality evaluation of risk assessments in a timely manner where adequate controls can be in place to protect workers health, especially during turnarounds where the exposure to health hazards is expected to rise during the performance of the many activities that take place, exposing workers to health risk. HRA development requires a competent team comprising experienced subject matter experts in the field, such as Industrial hygienists, Occupational Health Doctors, Turnaround Coordinators, Operation / Maintenance personnel, etc. The conventional way of conducting HRA is not only tedious and time-consuming but also less appreciated when it is not interpreted correctly, which may contribute to inadequate operationalization of it. Simplification can be the essence of timely intervention in managing health risks. This paper is intended as a sharing of the approach taken to simplify the methodology of developing the HRA report and operationalizing it. The approach includes developing a Generic HRA for turnaround activities to be used as a reference document and the empowerment of identified personnel through upskilling sessions to take up the role of facilitating HRA sessions. This empowerment is one of the key approaches towards the successful translation of the HRA into specific turnaround Job Hazard Analysis (JHA) that embed it in the Permit to Work (PTW) process. The approach used here increases awareness and compliance on HRA for turnaround activities through better interpretation and operationalization of the HRA report, adding value to the risk assessment for turnaround activities.

Keywords: industrial hygiene, health risk assessment, HRA, risk assessment

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Authors: Luke McGowan, David Pickernell, Martini Battisti

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In this paper, Adversity Triggers were explored through the lens of Organisational Resilience. Adversity Triggers are contextualized by temporal factors, thus, naturally aligning to Resilience literature. Resilience has been chosen as the theoretical framework as risk management approaches are often not geared towards providing meaningful responses to high-impact, low-probability events. Adversity Triggers and Organisational Resilience both consider temporal factors which enabled investigation of each phase of recovery. A systematic literature was employed to assess previous literature and define further areas of research. The systematic literature review method was chosen to catalogue and identify gaps in current literature.

Keywords: adversity triggers, crisis, extreme events, organisational resilience, resilience

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Authors: Irena Paramita Pramono

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Islamic bank is a financial industry with huge potential to grow in Indonesia. Profit-sharing agreement in the operations of Islamic banks distinguishes Islamic banks with conventional banks. Profit-sharing agreement allows sharing of benefits and risks between shahibul maal and mudharib in islamic bank. This study aimed to observe the patterns of influence between the risk-sharing agreement, financing risk and Profitability in Islamic banks. This research used several Islamic banks as sample and path analysis method. The empirical results of this research shows that the profit-sharing agreement in deposits structure has no direct significant effect to ROA, but it has indirect effect to ROA through profit-sharing financing. On the other hand, profit-sharing financing has direct and indirect influence to ROA through financing risk. This research shows that profit-sharing financing has a positive significant effect to the financing risk and also to the ROA. The research recommends Islamic banks to continue using and developing profit-sharing agreement in its operational activities, hence to create value.

Keywords: Islamic bank, profit-loss sharing agreement, financing risk, profitability

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Authors: Degineh Belachew Andarge, Tariku Lambiyo Anticho, Getamesay Mulatu Jara, Musa Mohammed Ali

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Introduction: Tuberculosis (TB) is a communicable chronic disease causedby Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB). About one-third of the world’s population is latently infected with MTB. TB is among the top 10 causes of mortality throughout the globe from a single pathogen. Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of tuberculosis,rifampicin-resistant/multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and associated factors among presumptive tuberculosis cases attending the tuberculosis clinic of Adare General Hospital located in Hawassa city. Methods: A hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 321 tuberculosis suspected patients from April toJuly 2018. Socio-demographic, environmental, and behavioral data were collected using a structured questionnaire. Sputumspecimens were analyzed using GeneXpert. Data entry was made using Epi info version 7 and analyzed by SPSS version 20. Logistic regression models were used to determine the risk factors. A p-value less than 0.05 was taken as a cut point. Results: In this study, the prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis was 98 (30.5%) with 95% confidence interval (25.5–35.8), and the prevalence of rifampicin-resistant/multidrug-resistantMycobacterium tuberculosis among the 98 Mycobacteriumtuberculosis confirmed cases was 4 (4.1%). The prevalence of rifampicin-resistant/multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosisamong the tuberculosis suspected patients was 1.24%. Participants who had a history of treatment with anti-tuberculosisdrugs were more likely to develop rifampicin-resistant/multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Conclusions: This study identified relatively high rifampicin-resistant/multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis amongtuberculosis suspected patients in the study area. Early detection of drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis should be givenenough attention to strengthen the management of tuberculosis cases and improve direct observation therapy short-course and eventually minimize the spread of rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis strain in the community.

Keywords: rifampicin resistance, mycobacterium tuberculosis, risk factors, prevalence of TB

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Authors: Sireen Irsheid

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Despite concerted efforts to improve education attainment with progress in recent years, student achievement and attainment remain among the most significant challenges for school districts across the United States. Many scholars have argued that students who do not complete high school do not drop out of school voluntarily but are ‘pushed out’ of schools through multiple mechanisms related to structural and socioeconomic barriers, behavioral health challenges, pedagogical practices, and administrative procedures. Extant literature has shown that living in historically disadvantaged neighborhoods or attending under-resourced schools exacerbates student-level risk factors for grade retention and school pushout. Most efforts to respond to the school pushout phenomenon have focused on individual characteristics of students, with relatively little attention to addressing these multiple system-level characteristics related to perpetuating inequities. This study is built on a growing body of social justice-oriented research concerned with the systemic influences that shape the experiences and mental health challenges of young people. Specifically, this study examined how young people who have been experiencing education inequities make meaning and navigate the structural factors related to neighborhood and school disinvestment and access to resources and supports, and their risk for school pushout. Furthermore, schools as political, cultural, and ideologically reproductive spaces often serve as sites of resistance and can support students who are impacted by educational inequity. Study findings provide education, neighborhood, school psychology, social work practice, and policy considerations.

Keywords: education policy, mental health, school prison nexus, school pushout, structural trauma

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Authors: Laura E. Hall, Joel Monárrez-Espino, Luz María Tejada Tayabas

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College students are at risk of weight gain and poor dietary habits, and health behaviours established during this period have been shown to track into midlife. They may therefore be an important target group for health promotion strategies, yet there is a lack of literature regarding dietary intakes and associated factors in this group, particularly in middle-income countries such as Mexico. The aim of this exploratory research was to describe and compare reported dietary intakes among nursing and nutrition college students at two public universities in Mexico, and to explore the relationship between demographic, behavioural and other health-related factors and the risk of low diet quality. Mexican college students (n=444) majoring in nutrition or nursing at two urban universities completed questionnaires regarding dietary and health-related behaviours and risks. Dietary intake was assessed via 24-hour recall. Weight, height and abdominal circumference were measured. Descriptive statistics were reported and nutrient intakes were compared between colleges and study tracks using Student’s t tests, odds ratios and Pearson chi square tests. Two dietary quality scores were constructed to explore the relationship between demographic, behavioural and other health-related factors and the diet quality scores using binary logistic regression. Analysis was performed using SPSS statistics, with differences considered statistically significant at p<0.05. The response rate to the survey was 91%. When macronutrients were considered as a percentage of total energy, the majority of students had protein intakes within recommended ranges, however one quarter of students had carbohydrate and fat intakes exceeding recommended levels. Three quarters had fibre intakes that were below recommendations. More than half of the students reported intakes of magnesium, zinc, vitamin A, folate and vitamin E that were below estimated average requirements. Students studying nutrition reported macronutrient and micronutrient intakes that were more compliant with recommendations compared to nursing students, and students studying in central-north Mexico were more compliant than those studying in southeast Mexico. Breakfast skipping (Adjusted Odds Ratio (OR) = 5.3; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.2-22.7), risk of anxiety (OR = 2.3; CI = 1.3-4.4), and university location (OR = 1.6; CI = 1.03-2.6) were associated with a greater risk of having a low macronutrient score. Caloric intakes <1800kcal (OR = 5.8; CI = 3.5-9.7), breakfast skipping (OR = 3.7; CI = 1.4-10.3), vigorous exercise ≤1h/week (OR = 2.6; CI = 1.3-5.2), soda consumption >250mls/day (OR = 2.0; CI = 1.2-3.3), unhealthy diet perception (OR = 1.9; CI = 1.2-3.0), and university location (OR = 1.8; CI = 1.1-2.8) were significantly associated with greater odds of having a low micronutrient score. College students studying nursing and nutrition did not report ideal diets, and these students should not be overlooked in public health interventions. Differences in dietary intakes between universities and study tracks were evident, with more favourable profiles evident in nutrition compared to nursing, and North-central compared to Southeast students. Further, demographic, behavioural and other health-related factors were associated with diet quality scores, warranting further research.

Keywords: college student, diet quality, nutrient intake, young adult

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Authors: Katalin Bodor, Zsolt Bodor, Robert Szep

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The particulate matter (PM) smaller than 2.5 μm are less studied due to the limited availability of PM₂.₅, and less information is available on the health effects attributable to PM₁₀ in Central-Eastern Europe. The objective of the current study was to assess the human health risk and characterize the spatial and temporal variation of PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ in eight Romanian regions between the 2009-2018 and. The PM concentrations showed high variability over time and spatial distribution. The highest concentration was detected in the Bucharest region in the winter period, and the lowest was detected in West. The relative risk caused by the PM₁₀ for all-cause mortality varied between 1.017 (B) and 1.025 (W), with an average 1.020. The results demonstrate a positive relative risk of cardiopulmonary and lung cancer disease due to exposure to PM₂.₅ on the national average 1.26 ( ± 0.023) and 1.42 ( ± 0.037), respectively.

Keywords: PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, relative risk, health effect

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Authors: Longqing Li

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The paper addresses the inefficiency of the classical model in measuring the Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a normal distribution or a Student’s t distribution. Specifically, the paper focuses on the one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) of major stock market’s daily returns in US, UK, China and Hong Kong in the most recent ten years under 95% confidence level. To improve the predictable power and search for the best performing model, the paper proposes using two leading alternatives, Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and a family of GARCH models, and compares the relative performance. The main contribution could be summarized in two aspects. First, the paper extends the GARCH family model by incorporating EGARCH and TGARCH to shed light on the difference between each in estimating one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR). Second, to account for the non-normality in the distribution of financial markets, the paper applies Generalized Error Distribution (GED), instead of the normal distribution, to govern the innovation term. A dynamic back-testing procedure is employed to assess the performance of each model, a family of GARCH and the conditional EVT. The conclusion is that Exponential GARCH yields the best estimate in out-of-sample one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting. Moreover, the discrepancy of performance between the GARCH and the conditional EVT is indistinguishable.

Keywords: Value-at-Risk, Extreme Value Theory, conditional EVT, backtesting

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Authors: Lito M. Amit, Venecio U. Ultra, Young-Woong Song

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The business process outsourcing (BPO) in the Philippines is expanding rapidly attracting more than 2% of total employment. Currently, the BPO industry is confronted with several issues pertaining to sustainable productivity such as meeting the staffing gap, high rate of employees’ turnover and workforce retention, and the occupational health and safety (OHS) of call center agents. We conducted a survey of OHS programs and health concerns among call center agents in the Philippines and determined the sociocultural factors that affect the vulnerability of call center agents to occupational health risks and hazards. The majority of the agents affirmed that OHS are implemented and OHS orientation and emergency procedures were conducted at employment initiations, perceived favorable and convenient working environment except for occasional noise disturbances and acoustic shock, visual, and voice fatigues. Male agents can easily adjust to the demands and changes in their work environment and flexible work schedules than female agents. Female agents have a higher tendency to be pressured and humiliated by low work performance, experience a higher incidence of emotional abuse, psychological abuse, and experience more physical stress than male agents. The majority of the call center agents had a night-shift schedule and regardless of other factors, night shift work brings higher stress to agents. While working in a call center, higher incidence of headaches and insomnia, burnout, suppressed anger, anxiety, and depressions were experienced by female, younger (21-25 years old) and those at night shift than their counterpart. Most common musculoskeletal disorders include body pain in the neck, shoulders and back; and hand and wrist disorders and these are commonly experienced by female and younger workers. About 30% experienced symptoms of cardiovascular and gastrointestinal disorders and weakened immune systems. Overall, these findings have shown the variable vulnerability by a different subpopulation of call center agents and are important in the occupational health risk prevention and management towards a sustainable human resource for BPO industry in the Philippines.

Keywords: business process outsourcing industry, health risk of call center agents, socio-cultural determinants, Philippines

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Authors: Hassan Manouchehri

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The present study aimed to identify and evaluate the factors affecting violence against women. The statistical population included all couples referring to family counseling centers in Tehran due to domestic violence during the past year. A number of 305 people were selected as a statistical sample using simple random sampling and Cochran's formula in unlimited conditions. A researcher-made questionnaire including 110 items was used for data collection. The face validity and content validity of the questionnaire were confirmed by 30 experts and its reliability was obtained above 0.7 for all studied variables in a preliminary test with 30 subjects and it was acceptable. In order to analyze the data, descriptive statistical methods were used with SPSS software version 22 and inferential statistics were used for modeling structural equations in Smart PLS software version 2. Evaluating the theoretical framework and domestic and foreign studies indicated that, in general, four main factors, including cultural and social factors, economic factors, legal factors, as well as medical factors, underlie violence against women. In addition, structural equation modeling findings indicated that cultural and social factors, economic factors, legal factors, and medical factors affect violence against women.

Keywords: violence against women, cultural and social factors, economic factors, legal factors, medical factors

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Authors: Rahmoune Abdelhaq

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Systemic risk is a key concern for central banks charged with safeguarding overall financial stability. In this work, we investigate how systemic risk is affected by the structure of the financial system. We construct banking systems that are composed of a number of banks that are connected by interbank linkages. We then vary the key parameters that define the structure of the financial system — including its level of capitalization, the degree to which banks are connected, the size of interbank exposures and the degree of concentration of the system — and analyses the influence of these parameters on the likelihood of contagious (knock-on) defaults. First, we find that the better-capitalized banks are, the more resilient is the banking system against contagious defaults and this effect is non-linear. Second, the effect of the degree of connectivity is non-monotonic, that is, initially a small increase in connectivity increases the contagion effect; but after a certain threshold value, connectivity improves the ability of a banking system to absorb shocks. Third, the size of interbank liabilities tends to increase the risk of knock-on default, even if banks hold capital against such exposures. Fourth, more concentrated banking systems are shown to be prone to larger systemic risk, all else equal. In an extension to the main analysis, we study how liquidity effects interact with banking structure to produce a greater chance of systemic breakdown. We finally consider how the risk of contagion might depend on the degree of asymmetry (tier) inherent in the structure of the banking system. A number of our results have important implications for public policy, which this paper also draws out. This paper also discusses why bank risk management is needed to get the optimal one.

Keywords: financial stability, contagion, liquidity risk, optimal risk

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Authors: Ezeabasili Chibuike Patrick

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The complex situation of construction industries in Nigeria and the risk of failures involved includes cost overrun, time overrun, Corruption, Government influence, Subcontractor challenges, Political influence and Instability, Cultural differences, Human resources deficiencies, cash flow Challenges, foreign exchange issues, inadequate design, Safety, low productivity, late payment, Quality control issues, project management issues, Environmental issues, Force majeure Competition amongst others has made the industry prone to risk and failures. Good project management remains effective in improving decision-making, which minimizes these risk events. This study was done to address these project risks and good decision-making to avert them. A mixed-method approach to research was used to do this study. Data collected by questionnaires and interviews on thirty-two (32) construction professionals was used in analyses to aid the knowledge and management of risks that were identified. The study revealed that there is no good risk management expertise in Nigeria. Also, that the economic/political situation and the recent COVID-19 pandemic has added to the risk and poor management strategies. The contingency theory and cost has therefore surfaced to be the most strategic management method used to reduce these risk issues and they seem to be very effective.

Keywords: strategies, risk management, contingency theory, Nigeria

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Authors: Mwenya Mubanga, Sula Mazimba

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Background: In Zambia, much of the focus on nutrition and health has been on reducing micronutrient deficiencies, wasting and underweight malnutrition and not on the rising global projections of trends in obesity and type 2 diabetes. The aim of this review was to identify and collate studies on the prevalence of obesity, diabetes and diabetes-related cardiovascular disease conducted in Zambia, to summarize their findings and to identify areas that need further research. Methods: The Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System (MEDLINE) database was searched for peer-reviewed articles on the prevalence of, and factors associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes, and diabetes-related cardiovascular disease amongst Zambian residents using a combination of search terms. The period of search was from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2016. We expanded the search terms to include all possible synonyms and spellings obtained in the search strategy. Additionally, we performed a manual search for other articles and references of peer-reviewed articles. Results: In Zambia, the current prevalence of Obesity and Type 2 diabetes is estimated at 13%-16% and 2.0 – 3.0% respectively. Risk factors such as the adoption of western dietary habits, the social stigmatization associated with rapid weight loss due to Tuberculosis and/ or the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) and rapid urbanization have all been blamed for fueling the increased risk of obesity and type 2 diabetes. However, unlike traditional Western populations, those with no formal education were less likely to be obese than those who attained secondary or tertiary level education. Approximately 30% of those surveyed were unaware of their diabetes diagnosis and more than 60% were not on treatment despite a known diabetic status. Socio-demographic factors such as older age, female sex, urban dwelling, lack of tobacco use and marital status were associated with an increased risk of obesity, impaired glucose tolerance and type 2 diabetes. We were unable to identify studies that specifically looked at diabetes-related cardiovascular disease. Conclusion: Although the prevalence of Obesity and Type 2 diabetes in Zambia appears low, more representative studies focusing on parts of the country outside of the main industrial zone need to be conducted. There also needs to be research on diabetes-related cardiovascular disease. National surveillance, monitoring and evaluation on all non-communicable diseases need to be prioritized and policies that address underweight, obesity and type 2 diabetes developed.

Keywords: type 2 diabetes, Zambia, obesity, cardiovascular disease

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Authors: Khaled Alkadamani

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Using the simultaneous equations model, this paper examines the impact of capital requirements on bank risk-taking during the recent financial crisis. It also explores the relationship between capital and risk decisions and the impact of economic instability on this relationship. By analyzing the data of 20 Islamic commercial banks between 2004 and 2014 from four Middle East countries, the study concludes a positive effect of regulatory pressure on bank capital in Saudi Arabia and UAE and a negative effect in Jordan and Kuwait. Moreover, the results show a negative impact of regulatory pressure on bank risk taking in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and UAE. The findings reveal also that banks close to the minimum regulatory capital requirements improve their capital adequacy by increasing their capital and decreasing their risk taking. Furthermore, the results show that economic crisis negatively affects bank risk changes, suggesting that banks react to the impact of uncertainty by reducing their risk taking. Finally, the estimations show a negative correlation between banks profitability and capital adequacy ratio (CAR), implying that as more capital is set aside as a buffer for banks safety; it affects the performance of Islamic banks.

Keywords: bank capital, bank regulation, crisis, Islamic banks, risk taking

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