Search results for: time delay-dependent

Authors: Yooncheol Lee, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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This paper deals with the establishment of a short-term operational plan for an air conditioner for efficient energy management of exhibition hall. The short-term operational plan is composed of a time series of operational schedules, which we have searched using genetic algorithms. Establishing operational schedule should be considered the future trends of the variables affecting the exhibition hall environment. To reflect continuously changing factors such as external temperature and occupant, short-term operational plans should be updated in real time. But it takes too much time to evaluate a short-term operational plan using EnergyPlus, a building emulation tool. For that reason, it is difficult to update the operational plan in real time. To evaluate the short-term operational plan, we designed prediction models based on machine learning with fast evaluation speed. This model, which was created by learning the past operational data, is accurate and fast. The collection of operational data and the verification of operational plans were made using EnergyPlus. Experimental results show that the proposed method can save energy compared to the reactive control method.

Keywords: exhibition hall, energy management, predictive model, simulation-based optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 317

Authors: Hervice Roméo Fogno Fotsoa, Germaine Djuidje Kenmoe, Claude Vidal Aloyem Kazé

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One of the main applications of machine learning is the prediction of time series. But a more accurate prediction requires a more optimal model of machine learning. Several optimization techniques have been developed, but without considering the input variables disposition of the system. Thus, this work aims to present a new machine learning architecture optimization technique based on their optimal input variables disposition. The validations are done on the prediction of wind time series, using data collected in Cameroon. The number of possible dispositions with four input variables is determined, i.e., twenty-four. Each of the dispositions is used to perform the prediction, with the main criteria being the training and prediction performances. The results obtained from a static architecture and a dynamic architecture of neural networks have shown that these performances are a function of the input variable's disposition, and this is in a different way from the architectures. This analysis revealed that it is necessary to take into account the input variable's disposition for the development of a more optimal neural network model. Thus, a new neural network training algorithm is proposed by introducing the search for the optimal input variables disposition in the traditional back-propagation algorithm. The results of the application of this new optimization approach on the two single neural network architectures are compared with the previously obtained results step by step. Moreover, this proposed approach is validated in a collaborative optimization method with a single objective optimization technique, i.e., genetic algorithm back-propagation neural networks. From these comparisons, it is concluded that each proposed model outperforms its traditional model in terms of training and prediction performance of time series. Thus the proposed optimization approach can be useful in improving the accuracy of time series forecasts. This proves that the proposed optimization approach can be useful in improving the accuracy of time series prediction based on machine learning.

Keywords: input variable disposition, machine learning, optimization, performance, time series prediction

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Authors: Sujit Kumar Pradhan, Anil Kumar, Vijay Kumar

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The testing process of the software during the software development time is a crucial step as it makes the software more efficient and dependable. To estimate software’s reliability through the mean value function, many software reliability growth models (SRGMs) were developed under the assumption that operating and testing environments are the same. Practically, it is not true because when the software works in a natural field environment, the reliability of the software differs. This article discussed an SRGM comprising change-point and imperfect debugging in a simulated testing environment. Later on, we extended it in a multi-release direction. Initially, the software was released to the market with few features. According to the market’s demand, the software company upgraded the current version by adding new features as time passed. Therefore, we have proposed a generalized multi-release SRGM where change-point and imperfect debugging concepts have been addressed in a simulated testing environment. The failure-increasing rate concept has been adopted to determine the change point for each software release. Based on nine goodness-of-fit criteria, the proposed model is validated on two real datasets. The results demonstrate that the proposed model fits the datasets better. We have also discussed the optimal release time of the software through a cost model by assuming that the testing and debugging costs are time-dependent.

Keywords: software reliability growth models, non-homogeneous Poisson process, multi-release software, mean value function, change-point, environmental factors

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Authors: Homa Ghave, Parmis Shahmaleki

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This paper presents a new multi-criteria stochastic mathematical model for a single machine scheduling with outsourcing allowed. There are multiple jobs processing in batch. For each batch, all of job or a quantity of it can be outsourced. The jobs have stochastic processing time and lead time and deterministic due dates arrive randomly. Because of the stochastic inherent of processing time and lead time, we use the chance constrained programming for modeling the problem. First, the problem is formulated in form of stochastic programming and then prepared in a form of deterministic mixed integer linear programming. The objectives are considered in the model to minimize the maximum tardiness and outsourcing cost simultaneously. Several procedures have been developed to deal with the multi-criteria problem. In this paper, we utilize the concept of satisfaction functions to increases the manager’s preference. The proposed approach is tested on instances where the random variables are normally distributed.

Keywords: single machine scheduling, multi-criteria mathematical model, outsourcing strategy, uncertain lead times and processing times, chance constrained programming, satisfaction function

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Authors: Omar Abdalla, Abdelfatah Ahmed, Ahmed Mustafa, Abdelazem Eldouma

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The purpose of this study is evaluating the effect of extremely low frequency magnetic field on Waster rats brain. The number of rats used in this study were 25, which were divided into five groups, each group containing five rats as follows: Group 1: The control group which was not exposed to energized field; Group 2: Rats were exposed to a magnetic field with an intensity of 0.6 mT (2 hours/day); Group 3: Rats were exposed to a magnetic field of 1.2 mT (2 hours/day); Group4: Rats were exposed to a magnetic field of 1.8 mT (2 hours/day); Group 5: Rats were exposed to a magnetic field of 2.4 mT (2 hours/day) and all groups were exposed for seven days, by designing a maze and calculating the time average for arriving to the decoy at special conditions. We found the time average before exposure for the all groups was G2=330 s, G3=172 s, G4=500 s and G5=174 s, respectively. We exposed all groups to ELF-MF and measured the time and we found: G2=465 s, G3=388 s, G4=501 s, and G5=442 s. It was observed that the time average increased directly with field strength. Histological samples of frontal lop of brain for all groups were taken and we found lesion, atrophy, empty vacuoles and disorder choroid plexus at frontal lope of brain. And finally we observed the disorder of choroid plexus in histological results and Alzheimer's symptoms increase when the magnetic field increases.

Keywords: nonionizing radiation, biophysics, magnetic field, shrinkage

Procedia PDF Downloads 521

Authors: Mehrnaz Alibeikloo, Hajar Share Isfahani, Hadi Khabbaz

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In recent years, by developing cities and increasing population, reconstructing on closed landfill sites in some regions is unavoidable. Long-term settlement is one of the major concerns associated with reconstruction on landfills after closure. The purpose of this research is evaluating the effect of preloading in various patterns of height and time on long-term settlements of closed landfills. In this regard, five scenarios of surcharge from 1 to 3 m high within 3, 4.5 and 6 months of preloading time have been modeled using PLAXIS 2D software. Moreover, the numerical results have been compared to those obtained from analytical methods, and a good agreement has been achieved. The findings indicate that there is a linear relationship between settlement and surcharge height. Although, long-term settlement decreased by applying a longer and higher preloading, the time of preloading was found to be a more effective factor compared to preloading height.

Keywords: preloading, long-term settlement, landfill, PLAXIS 2D

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Authors: N. Messai, A. Boumali

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In this work, we aim to solve the two dimensional Kemmer equation including Dirac oscillator interaction term, in the background space-time generated by a cosmic string which is submitted to an uniform magnetic field. Eigenfunctions and eigenvalues of our problem have been found and the influence of the cosmic string space-time on the energy spectrum has been analyzed.

Keywords: Kemmer oscillator, cosmic string, Dirac oscillator, eigenfunctions

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Authors: Xianbao Sun, Jinlong Zhao, Shudong He, Jing Li

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Volutharpa ampullacea perryi is a high-protein marine shellfish. However, few data are available on the effects of boiling temperatures and time on quality of the meat. In this study, colour, texture and sensory characteristics of Volutharpa ampullacea perryi meat during the boiling cooking processes (75-100 °C, 5-60 min) were investigated by colors analysis, texture profile analysis (TPA), scanning electron microscope (SEM) and sensory evaluation. The ratio of cooking loss gradually increased with the increase of temperature and time. The colour of meat became lighter and more yellower from 85 °C to 95 °C in a short time (5-20 min), but it became brown after a 30 min treatment. TPA results showed that the Volutharpa ampullacea perryi meat were more firm and less cohesive after a higher temperature (95-100 °C) treatment even in a short period (5-15 min). Based on the SEM analysis, it was easily found that the myofibrils structure was destroyed at a higher temperature (85-100 °C). Sensory data revealed that the meat cooked at 85-90 °C in 10-20 min showed higher scores in overall acceptance, as well as color, hardness and taste. Based on these results, it could be constructed that Volutharpa ampullacea perryi meat should be heated on a suitable condition (such as 85 °C 15 min or 90 °C 10 min) in the boiling cooking to be ensure a better acceptability.

Keywords: Volutharpa ampullacea perryi meat, boiling cooking, colour, sensory, texture

Procedia PDF Downloads 255

Authors: Yasuyuki Takahashi, Hayato Ishimura, Masao Miyagawa, Teruhito Mochizuki

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Quantitative measurement of myocardium perfusion is possible with single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) using a semiconductor detector. However, accumulation of ^99mTc-tetrofosmin in the liver may make it difficult to assess that accurately in the inferior myocardium. Our idea is to reduce the high accumulation in the liver by using dynamic SPECT imaging and a technique called time subtraction. We evaluated the performance of a new SPECT system with a cadmium-zinc-telluride solid-state semi- conductor detector (Discovery NM 530c; GE Healthcare). Our system acquired list-mode raw data over 10 minutes for a typical patient. From the data, ten SPECT images were reconstructed, one for every minute of acquired data. Reconstruction with the semiconductor detector was based on an implementation of a 3-D iterative Bayesian reconstruction algorithm. We studied 20 patients with coronary artery disease (mean age 75.4 ± 12.1 years; range 42-86; 16 males and 4 females). In each subject, 259 MBq of ^99mTc-tetrofosmin was injected intravenously. We performed both a phantom and a clinical study using dynamic SPECT. An approximation to a liver-only image is obtained by reconstructing an image from the early projections during which time the liver accumulation dominates (0.5~2.5 minutes SPECT image-5~10 minutes SPECT image). The extracted liver-only image is then subtracted from a later SPECT image that shows both the liver and the myocardial uptake (5~10 minutes SPECT image-liver-only image). The time subtraction of liver was possible in both a phantom and the clinical study. The visualization of the inferior myocardium was improved. In past reports, higher accumulation in the myocardium due to the overlap of the liver is un-diagnosable. Using our time subtraction method, the image quality of the ^99mTc-tetorofosmin myocardial SPECT image is considerably improved.

Keywords: 99mTc-tetrofosmin, dynamic SPECT, time subtraction, semiconductor detector

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Authors: Mohammad Pourmohammadi Fallah, Maziar Salahi

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In the literature, a mixed-integer linear programming model for the integrated production planning and warehouse layout problem is proposed. To solve the model, the authors proposed a Lagrangian relax-and-fix heuristic that takes a significant amount of time to stop with gaps above 5$\%$ for large-scale instances. Here, we present two heuristic algorithms to solve the problem. In the first one, we use a greedy approach by allocating warehouse locations with less reservation costs and also less transportation costs from the production area to locations and from locations to the output point to items with higher demands. Then a smaller model is solved. In the second heuristic, first, we sort items in descending order according to the fraction of the sum of the demands for that item in the time horizon plus the maximum demand for that item in the time horizon and the sum of all its demands in the time horizon. Then we categorize the sorted items into groups of 3, 4, or 5 and solve a small-scale optimization problem for each group, hoping to improve the solution of the first heuristic. Our preliminary numerical results show the effectiveness of the proposed heuristics.

Keywords: capacitated lot-sizing, warehouse layout, mixed-integer linear programming, heuristics algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Fatima S. Rodriguez, Victorino T. Taylan, Manolito C. Bulaong, Helen F. Gavino, Vitaliana U. Malamug

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In sundrying, the quality of the grains are greatly reduced when paddy grains were caught by the rain unsacked and unstored resulting to reduced profit. The objectives of this study were to design and fabricate a quick covering machine for grain drying pavement to test and evaluate the operating characteristics of the machine according to its deployment speed, recovery speed, deployment time, recovery time, power consumption, aesthetics of laminated sack, conducting partial budget, and cost curve analysis. The machine was able to cover the grains in a 12.8 m x 22.5 m grain drying pavement at an average time of 17.13 s. It consumed 0 .53 W-hr for the deployment and recovery of the cover. The machine entailed an investment cost of $1,344.40 and an annual cost charge of $647.32. Moreover, the savings per year using the quick covering machine was $101.83.

Keywords: quick, covering machine, grain, drying pavement

Procedia PDF Downloads 348

Authors: Majed Sanan, Mohammad Rammal, Wassim Rammal

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Today, security is a major concern. Intrusion Detection, Prevention Systems and Honeypot can be used to moderate attacks. Many researchers have proposed to use many IDSs ((Intrusion Detection System) time to time. Some of these IDS’s combine their features of two or more IDSs which are called Hybrid Intrusion Detection Systems. Most of the researchers combine the features of Signature based detection methodology and Anomaly based detection methodology. For a signature based IDS, if an attacker attacks slowly and in organized way, the attack may go undetected through the IDS, as signatures include factors based on duration of the events but the actions of attacker do not match. Sometimes, for an unknown attack there is no signature updated or an attacker attack in the mean time when the database is updating. Thus, signature-based IDS fail to detect unknown attacks. Anomaly based IDS suffer from many false-positive readings. So there is a need to hybridize those IDS which can overcome the shortcomings of each other. In this paper we propose a new approach to IDS (Intrusion Detection System) which is more efficient than the traditional IDS (Intrusion Detection System). The IDS is based on Honeypot Technology and Anomaly based Detection Methodology. We have designed Architecture for the IDS in a packet tracer and then implemented it in real time. We have discussed experimental results performed: both the Honeypot and Anomaly based IDS have some shortcomings but if we hybridized these two technologies, the newly proposed Hybrid Intrusion Detection System (HIDS) is capable enough to overcome these shortcomings with much enhanced performance. In this paper, we present a modified Hybrid Intrusion Detection System (HIDS) that combines the positive features of two different detection methodologies - Honeypot methodology and anomaly based intrusion detection methodology. In the experiment, we ran both the Intrusion Detection System individually first and then together and recorded the data from time to time. From the data we can conclude that the resulting IDS are much better in detecting intrusions from the existing IDSs.

Keywords: security, intrusion detection, intrusion prevention, honeypot, anomaly-based detection, signature-based detection, cloud computing, kfsensor

Procedia PDF Downloads 349

Authors: Kai Chen, Shuguang Cui, Feng Yin

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Gaussian process (GP) with spectral mixture (SM) kernel demonstrates flexible non-parametric Bayesian learning ability in modeling unknown function. In this work a novel time-varying and non-stationary convolution spectral mixture (TN-CSM) kernel with a significant enhancing of interpretability by using process convolution is introduced. A way decomposing the SM component into an auto-convolution of base SM component and parameterizing it to be input dependent is outlined. Smoothly, performing a convolution between two base SM component yields a novel structure of non-stationary SM component with much better generalized expression and interpretation. The TN-CSM perfectly allows compatibility with the stationary SM kernel in terms of kernel form and spectral base ignored and confused by previous non-stationary kernels. On synthetic and real-world datatsets, experiments show the time-varying characteristics of hyper-parameters in TN-CSM and compare the learning performance of TN-CSM with popular and representative non-stationary GP.

Keywords: Gaussian process, spectral mixture, non-stationary, convolution

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Authors: Jun-Geol Park, Kyoung-Il Do, Min-Ju Kwon, Kyung-Hyun Park, Yong-Seo Koo

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This paper analyzed the SCR (Silicon Controlled Rectifier)-based ESD (Electrostatic Discharge) protection circuits with the turn-on time characteristics. The structures are the LVTSCR (Low Voltage Triggered SCR), the ZTSCR (Zener Triggered SCR) and the PTSCR (P-Substrate Triggered SCR). The three structures are for the 5V power clamp. In general, the structures with the low trigger voltage structure can have the fast turn-on characteristics than other structures. All the ESD protection circuits have the low trigger voltage by using the N+ bridge region of LVTSCR, by using the zener diode structure of ZTSCR, by increasing the trigger current of PTSCR. The simulation for the comparison with the turn-on time was conducted by the Synopsys TCAD simulator. As the simulation results, the LVTSCR has the turn-on time of 2.8 ns, ZTSCR of 2.1 ns and the PTSCR of 2.4 ns. The HBM simulation results, however, show that the PTSCR is the more robust structure of 430K in HBM 8kV standard than 450K of LVTSCR and 495K of ZTSCR. Therefore the PTSCR is the most effective ESD protection circuit for the 5V power clamp.

Keywords: ESD, SCR, turn-on time, trigger voltage, power clamp

Procedia PDF Downloads 325

Authors: M. H. Hussain, I. Musirin, A. F. Abidin, S. R. A. Rahim

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This paper presents the implementation of Artificial Bees Colony (ABC) algorithm in solving Directional OverCurrent Relays (DOCRs) coordination problem for near-end faults occurring in fixed network topology. The coordination optimization of DOCRs is formulated as linear programming (LP) problem. The objective function is introduced to minimize the operating time of the associated relay which depends on the time multiplier setting. The proposed technique is to taken as a technique for comparison purpose in order to highlight its superiority. The proposed algorithms have been tested successfully on 8 bus test system. The simulation results demonstrated that the ABC algorithm which has been proved to have good search ability is capable in dealing with constraint optimization problems.

Keywords: artificial bees colony, directional overcurrent relay coordination problem, relay settings, time multiplier setting

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Authors: Mohammed Al Awadh

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In order for businesses to take advantage of the opportunities for expanded production and trade that have arisen as a result of globalization and increased levels of competition, productivity growth is required. The number of available sources is decreasing with each passing day, which results in an ever-increasing demand. In response to this, there will be an increased demand placed on firms to improve the efficiency with which they utilise their resources. As a scientific method, work and time research techniques have been employed in all manufacturing and service industries to raise the efficiency of use of the factors of production. These approaches focus on work and time. The goal of this research is to improve the productivity of a manufacturing industry's production system by looking at ways to measure work. The work cycles were broken down into more manageable and quantifiable components. On the observation sheet, these aspects were noted down. The operation has been properly analysed in order to identify value-added and non-value-added components, and observations have been recorded for each of the different trails.

Keywords: time study, work measurement, work study, efficiency

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Authors: Richard Sogah

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The significance of transport infrastructure investments for economic growth and development has been central to the World Bank’s strategy for poverty reduction. Among the conventional surface transport infrastructures, road infrastructure is significant in facilitating the movement of human capital goods and services. When transport projects (i.e., roads, super-highways) are implemented, they come along with some negative social values (costs), such as increased noise and air pollution for local residents living near these facilities, displaced individuals, etc. However, these projects also facilitate better utilization of existing capital stock and generate other observable benefits that can be easily quantified. For example, the improvement or construction of roads creates employment, stimulates revenue generation (toll), reduces vehicle operating costs and accidents, increases accessibility, trade expansion, safety improvement, etc. Aside from these benefits, travel time savings (TTSs) which are the major economic benefits of urban and inter-urban transport projects and therefore integral in the economic assessment of transport projects, are often overlooked and omitted when estimating the benefits of transport projects, especially in developing countries. The absence of current and reliable domestic travel data and the inability of replicated models from the developed world to capture the actual value of travel time savings due to the large unemployment, underemployment, and other labor-induced distortions has contributed to the failure to assign value to travel time savings when estimating the benefits of transport schemes in developing countries. This omission of the value of travel time savings from the benefits of transport projects in developing countries poses problems for investors and stakeholders to either accept or dismiss projects based on schemes that favor reduced vehicular operating costs and other parameters rather than those that ease congestion, increase average speed, facilitate walking and handloading, and thus save travel time. Given the complex reality in the estimation of the value of travel time savings and the presence of widespread informal labour activities in Sub-Saharan Africa, we construct a “nationally ranked distribution of time values” and estimate the value of travel time savings based on the area beneath the distribution. Compared with other approaches, our method captures both formal sector workers and individuals/people who work outside the formal sector and hence changes in their time allocation occur in the informal economy and household production activities. The dataset for the estimations is sourced from the World Bank, the International Labour Organization, etc.

Keywords: road infrastructure, transport projects, travel time savings, congestion, Sub-Sahara Africa

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Authors: Ankur Jain, W. Wilfred Godfrey

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Embedded systems are usually microcontroller-based systems that represent a class of reliable and dependable dedicated computer systems designed for specific purposes. Micro-controllers are used in most electronic devices in an endless variety of ways. Some micro-controller-based embedded systems are required to respond to external events in the shortest possible time and such systems are known as real-time embedded systems. So in multitasking system there is a need of task Scheduling,there are various scheduling algorithms like Fixed priority Scheduling(FPS),Earliest deadline first(EDF), Rate Monotonic(RM), Deadline Monotonic(DM),etc have been researched. In this Report various conventional algorithms have been reviewed and analyzed, these algorithms consists of single shape task, A new Multishape scheduling algorithms has been proposed and implemented and analyzed.

Keywords: dm, edf, embedded systems, fixed priority, microcontroller, rtos, rm, scheduling algorithms

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Authors: S. Rostampour Yasouri, M. Ghane, M. Doudi

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Leptospirosis is one of the most significant infectious and zoonotic diseases along with global spreading. This disease is causative agent of economoic losses and human fatalities in various countries, including Northern provinces of Iran. The aim of this research is to identify and compare the rapid diagnostic techniques of pathogenic leptospiras, considering the multifacetedness of the disease from a clinical manifestation and premature death of patients. In the spring and summer of 2020-2022, 25 fecal samples were collected from suspected leptospirosis patients and 25 Fecal samples from mice residing in the rice fields and factories in Tonekabon city. Samples were prepared by centrifugation and passing through membrane filters. Culture technique was used in liquid and solid EMJH media during one month of incubation at 30°C. Then, the media were examined microscopically. DNA extraction was conducted by extraction Kit. Diagnosis of leptospiras was enforced by PCR and Real time PCR (SYBR Green) techniques using lipL32 specific primer. Out of the patients, 11 samples (44%) and 8 samples (32%) were determined to be pathogenic Leptospira by Real time PCR and PCR technique, respectively. Out of the mice, 9 Samples (36%) and 3 samples (12%) were determined to be pathogenic Leptospira by the mentioned techniques, respectively. Although the culture technique is considered to be the gold standard technique, but due to the slow growth of pathogenic Leptospira and lack of colony formation of some species, it is not a fast technique. Real time PCR allowed rapid diagnosis with much higher accuracy compared to PCR because PCR could not completely identify samples with lower microbial load.

Keywords: culture, pathogenic leptospiras, PCR, real time PCR

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Authors: Muhammad Danish Khan, Imran Naeem, Mudassar Imran

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In this article, we study time-space Fractional Advection-Dispersion (FADE) equation and time-space Fractional Whitham-Broer-Kaup (FWBK) equation that have a significant role in hydrology. We introduce suitable transformations to convert fractional order derivatives to integer order derivatives and as a result these equations transform into Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). Then the Lie symmetries and corresponding optimal systems of the resulting PDEs are derived. The symmetry reductions and exact independent solutions based on optimal system are investigated which constitute the exact solutions of original fractional differential equations.

Keywords: modified Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative, lie-symmetries, optimal system, invariant solutions

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Authors: Wen Shyong Hsieh, Chih Hsueh Lin

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In this paper, we combine the concepts of chameleon hash function (CHF) and identification based cryptography (IBC) to build a message authentication environment for VANET under sparse RSUs. Based on the CHF, TA keeps two common secrets that will be embedded to all identities to be as the evidence of mutual trusting. TA will issue one original identity to every RSU and vehicle. An identity contains one public ID and one private key. The public ID, includes three components: pseudonym, random key, and public key, is used to present one entity and can be verified to be a legal one. The private key is used to claim the ownership of the public ID. Based on the concept of IBC, without any negotiating process, a CHF pairing key multiplied by one private key and other’s public key will be used for mutually trusting and to be utilized as the session key of secure communicating between RSUs and vehicles. To help the vehicles to do message authenticating, the RSUs are assigned to response the vehicle’s temple identity request using two short time secretes that are broadcasted by TA. To light the loading of request information, one day is divided into M time slots. At every time slot, TA will broadcast two short time secretes to all valid RSUs for that time slot. Any RSU can response the temple identity request from legal vehicles. With the collected announcement of public IDs from the neighbor vehicles, a vehicle can set up its neighboring set, which includes the information about the neighbor vehicle’s temple public ID and temple CHF pairing key that can be derived by the private key and neighbor’s public key and will be used to do message authenticating or secure communicating without the help of RSU.

Keywords: Internet of Vehicles (IOV), Vehicular Ad-hoc Networks (VANETs), Chameleon Hash Function (CHF), message authentication

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series

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Authors: Mojtaba Noghabaei, Khashayar Asadi, Kevin Han

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Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) technology has recently attracted the attention of construction companies for real-time performance monitoring. To effectively use SLAM for construction performance monitoring, SLAM results should be registered to a Building Information Models (BIM). Registring SLAM and BIM can provide essential insights for construction managers to identify construction deficiencies in real-time and ultimately reduce rework. Also, registering SLAM to BIM in real-time can boost the accuracy of SLAM since SLAM can use features from both images and 3d models. However, registering SLAM with the BIM in real-time is a challenge. In this study, a novel SLAM platform named Model-Based SLAM (MB-SLAM) is proposed, which not only provides automated registration of SLAM and BIM but also improves the localization accuracy of the SLAM system in real-time. This framework improves the accuracy of SLAM by aligning perspective features such as depth, vanishing points, and vanishing lines from the BIM to the SLAM system. This framework extracts depth features from a monocular camera’s image and improves the localization accuracy of the SLAM system through a real-time iterative process. Initially, SLAM can be used to calculate a rough camera pose for each keyframe. In the next step, each SLAM video sequence keyframe is registered to the BIM in real-time by aligning the keyframe’s perspective with the equivalent BIM view. The alignment method is based on perspective detection that estimates vanishing lines and points by detecting straight edges on images. This process will generate the associated BIM views from the keyframes' views. The calculated poses are later improved during a real-time gradient descent-based iteration method. Two case studies were presented to validate MB-SLAM. The validation process demonstrated promising results and accurately registered SLAM to BIM and significantly improved the SLAM’s localization accuracy. Besides, MB-SLAM achieved real-time performance in both indoor and outdoor environments. The proposed method can fully automate past studies and generate as-built models that are aligned with BIM. The main contribution of this study is a SLAM framework for both research and commercial usage, which aims to monitor construction progress and performance in a unified framework. Through this platform, users can improve the accuracy of the SLAM by providing a rough 3D model of the environment. MB-SLAM further boosts the application to practical usage of the SLAM.

Keywords: perspective alignment, progress monitoring, slam, stereo matching.

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Authors: Prajakta M. Wazat, D. N. Raut

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The study consists of a fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) beverage company wherein a portion of the supply chain which deals with outbound logistics is taken for improvement in order to reduce its logistics cost by using critical path method (CPM) method. Logistics is a major portion of the supply chain where customers are not willing to pay as it adds cost to product without adding value. In this study, it is necessary to ensure that products are delivered to clients at the right time while preserving high-quality standards from the beginning to the end of the supply chain. CPM is a logical sequencing method where in the most efficient route is achieved by arranging the series of events. CPM enables to identify a critical factor in order to minimize the delays and interruption by providing a feasible solution.

Keywords: FMCG, supply chain, outbound logistics, vehicle turnaround time, critical path method, cost reduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Azim Khodadadi, Sahar Sadaat Vakili, Ebrahim Babaei

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This study presents a numerical method to optimize the failure rate and repair time of a typical radial distribution system. Failure rate and repair time are effective parameters in customer and energy based indices of reliability. Decrease of these parameters improves reliability indices. Thus, system stability will be boost. The penalty functions indirectly reflect the cost of investment which spent to improve these indices. Constraints on customer and energy based indices, i.e. SAIFI, SAIDI, CAIDI and AENS have been considered by using a new method which reduces optimization algorithm controlling parameters. Imperialist Competitive Algorithm (ICA) used as main optimization technique and particle swarm optimization (PSO), simulated annealing (SA) and differential evolution (DE) has been applied for further investigation. These algorithms have been implemented on a test system by MATLAB. Obtained results have been compared with each other. The optimized values of repair time and failure rate are much lower than current values which this achievement reduced investment cost and also ICA gives better answer than the other used algorithms.

Keywords: imperialist competitive algorithm, failure rate, repair time, radial distribution network

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Authors: Naveed Ghani

Abstract:

With the arrival of higher speed communication links and mature application running over the internet, the requirement for reliable, efficient and robust network designs rising day by day. Multi-Protocol Label Switching technology (MPLS) Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) have committed to provide optimal network services. They are gaining popularity in industry day by day. Enterprise customers are moving to service providers that offer MPLS VPNs. The main reason for this shifting is the capability of MPLS VPN to provide built in security features and any-to-any connectivity. MPLS VPNs improved the network performance due to fast label switching as compare to traditional IP Forwarding but traffic classification and policing was still required on per hop basis to enhance the performance of real time traffic which is delay sensitive (particularly voice and video). QoS (Quality of service) is the most important factor to prioritize enterprise networks’ real time traffic such as voice and video. This thesis is focused on the study of QoS parameters (e.g. delay, jitter and MOS (Mean Opinion Score)) for the real time traffic over MPLS VPNs. DiffServ (Differentiated Services) QoS model will be used over MPLS VPN network to get end-to-end service quality.

Keywords: network, MPLS, VPN, DiffServ, MPLS VPN, DiffServ QoS, QoS Model, GNS2

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Authors: Yue Hao

Abstract:

COVID-19 vaccines not only protect individuals but society as a whole. In this case, having an understanding of the change and trend of vaccination conditions may shed some light on revising and making up-to-date policies regarding large-scale public health promotions and calls in order to lead and encourage the adoption of COVID-19 vaccines. However, vaccination status change over time and vary from place to place hidden patterns that were not fully explored in previous research. In our research, we took advantage of the spatial-temporal analytical methods in the domain of geographic information science and captured the spatial-temporal changes regarding COVID-19 vaccination status in the United States during 2020 and 2021. After conducting the emerging hot spots analysis on both the state level data of the US and county level data of California we found that: (1) at the macroscopic level, there is a continuously increasing trend of the vaccination rate in the US, but there is a variance on the spatial clusters at county level; (2) spatial hotspots and clusters with high vaccination amount over time were clustered around the west and east coast in regions like California and New York City where are densely populated with considerable economy conditions; (3) in terms of the growing trend of the daily vaccination among, Los Angeles County alone has very high statistics and dramatic increases over time. We hope that our findings can be valuable guidance for supporting future decision-making regarding vaccination policies as well as directing new research on relevant topics.

Keywords: COVID-19 vaccine, GIS, space time cube, spatial-temporal analysis

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Authors: Hueiwang Anna Jeng, Norou Diawara, Nancy Welch, Cynthia Jackson, Rekha Singh, Kyle Curtis, Raul Gonzalez, David Jurgens, Sasanka Adikari

Abstract:

Modeling effort is needed to predict the COVID-19 trends for developing management strategies and adaptation measures. The objective of this study was to assess whether SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater could serve as a predictor for forecasting COVID-19 cases, hospitalization cases, and death cases using copula-based time series modeling. SARS-CoV-2 RNA load in raw wastewater in Chesapeake VA was measured using the RT-qPCR method. Gaussian copula time series marginal regression model, incorporating an autoregressive moving average model and the copula function, served as a forecasting model. COVID-19 cases were correlated with wastewater viral load, hospitalization cases, and death cases. The forecasted trend of COVID-19 cases closely paralleled one of the reported cases, with over 90% of the forecasted COVID-19 cases falling within the 99% confidence interval of the reported cases. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral load could serve as a predictor for COVID-19 cases and hospitalization cases.

Keywords: COVID-19, modeling, time series, copula function

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Authors: Jun Wang, Tingcun Wei

Abstract:

The digital pulse width modulator (DPWM) is the crucial building block for digitally-controlled DC-DC switching converter, which converts the digital duty ratio signal into its analog counterpart to control the power MOSFET transistors on or off. With the increase of switching frequency of digitally-controlled DC-DC converter, the DPWM with higher time resolution is required. In this paper, a 15-bits DPWM with three-level hybrid structure is presented; the first level is composed of a7-bits counter and a comparator, the second one is a 5-bits delay line, and the third one is a 3-bits digital dither. The presented DPWM is designed and implemented using the PLL megafunction of FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Arrays), and the required frequency of clock signal is 128 times of switching frequency. The simulation results show that, for the switching frequency of 2 MHz, a DPWM which has the time resolution of 15 ps is achieved using a maximum clock frequency of 256MHz. The designed DPWM in this paper is especially useful for high-frequency digitally-controlled DC-DC switching converters.

Keywords: DPWM, digitally-controlled DC-DC switching converter, FPGA, PLL megafunction, time resolution

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Authors: Suleiman Obeidat, Nabeel Mandahawi

Abstract:

In this work, the packaging process for a move is improved. The customers of this move need their household stuff to be moved from their current house to the new one with minimum damage, in an organized manner, on time and with the minimum cost. Our goal was to improve the process between 10% and 20% time efficiency, 90% reduction in damaged parts and an acceptable improvement in the cost of the total move process. The expected ROI was 833%. Many improvement techniques have been used in terms of the way the boxes are prepared, their preparation cost, packing the goods, labeling them and moving them to a place for moving out. DMAIC technique is used in this work: SIPOC diagram, value stream map of “As Is” process, Root Cause Analysis, Maps of “Future State” and “Ideal State” and an Improvement Plan. A value of ROI=624% is obtained which is lower than the expected value of 833%. The work explains the techniques of improvement and the deficiencies in the old process.

Keywords: packaging, lean tools, six sigma, DMAIC methodology, SIPOC

Procedia PDF Downloads 410