Search results for: poission regression

Authors: Adewale Oladapo, C. A. Afolami

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The study analyzed the effect of micro credit access on poverty reduction among small scale women entrepreneurs in Ondo state, Nigeria. Primary data were collected in a cross-sectional survey of 100 randomly selected woman entrepreneurs. These were drawn in multistage sampling process covering four local government areas (LGAS). Data collected include socio economics characteristics of respondents, access to micro credit, sources of micro credit, and constraints faced by the entrepreneur in sourcing for micro credit. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Foster, Greer and Thorbecke (FGT) index of poverty measure, Gini coefficients and probit regression analysis. The study found that respondents sampled for the survey were within the age range of 31-40 years with mean age 38.6%. Mostly (56.0%) of the respondents were educated to the tune of primary school. Majority (87.0%) of the respondents were married with fairly large household size of (4-5). The poverty index analysis revealed that most (67%) of the sample respondents were poor. The result of the Probit regression analyzed showed that income was a significant variable in micro credit access, while the result of the Gini coefficient revealed a very high income inequality among the respondents. The study concluded that most of the respondents were poor and return on investment (income) was an important variable that increased the chance of respondents in sourcing for micro-credit loan and recommended that income realized by entrepreneur should be properly documented to facilitate loan accessibility.

Keywords: entrepreneurs, income, micro-credit, poverty

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Xiaolei Hu, Enrico Ferrera, Riccardo Tomasi, Claudio Pastrone

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Load Forecasting plays a key role in making today's and future's Smart Energy Grids sustainable and reliable. Accurate power consumption prediction allows utilities to organize in advance their resources or to execute Demand Response strategies more effectively, which enables several features such as higher sustainability, better quality of service, and affordable electricity tariffs. It is easy yet effective to apply Load Forecasting at larger geographic scale, i.e. Smart Micro Grids, wherein the lower available grid flexibility makes accurate prediction more critical in Demand Response applications. This paper analyses the application of short-term load forecasting in a concrete scenario, proposed within the EU-funded GreenCom project, which collect load data from single loads and households belonging to a Smart Micro Grid. Three short-term load forecasting techniques, i.e. linear regression, artificial neural networks, and radial basis function network, are considered, compared, and evaluated through absolute forecast errors and training time. The influence of weather conditions in Load Forecasting is also evaluated. A new definition of Gain is introduced in this paper, which innovatively serves as an indicator of short-term prediction capabilities of time spam consistency. Two models, 24- and 1-hour-ahead forecasting, are built to comprehensively compare these three techniques.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting, smart micro grid, linear regression, artificial neural networks, radial basis function network, gain

Procedia PDF Downloads 442

Authors: Jiaqian Yin, Ruoling Chen, David Churchill, Huijuan Zou, Peipei Guo, Chunmei Liang, Xiaoqing Peng, Zhikang Zhang, Weiju Zhou, Yunxia Cao

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Purpose: This study aimed to explore the interaction of male and female age on implantation failure from in vitro fertilisation (IVF)/ intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) treatments in couples following their first cycles using the Anhui Maternal-Child Health Study (AMCHS). Methods: The AMCHS recruited 2042 infertile couples who were physically fit for in vitro fertilisation (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) treatment at the Reproductive Centre of the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University between May 2017 to April 2021. This prospective cohort study analysed the data from 1910 cohort couples for the current paper data analysis. The multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify the effect of male and female age on implantation failure after controlling for confounding factors. Male age and female age were examined as continuous and categorical (male age: 20-<25, 25-<30, 30-<35, 35-<40, ≥40; female age: 20-<25, 25-<30, 30-<35, 35-<40, ≥40) predictors. Results: Logistic regression indicated that advanced maternal age was associated with increased implantation failure (P<0.001). There was evidence of an interaction between maternal age (30-<35 and ≥ 35) and paternal age (≥35) on implantation failure. (p<0.05). Only when the male was ≥35 years of increased maternal age was associated with the risk of implantation failure. Conclusion: In conclusion, there was an additive effect on implantation failure with advanced parental age. The impact of advanced maternal age was only seen in the older paternal age group. The delay of childbearing in both men and women will be a serious public issue that may contribute to a higher risk of implantation failure in patients needing assisted reproductive technology (ART).

Keywords: parental age, infertility, cohort study, IVF

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Sonal Sethi, Mukesh Yadav, Abhimanyu Gupta

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The upcoming field of radiogenomics has the potential to upgrade the role of imaging in lung cancer management by noninvasive characterization of tumor histology and genetic microenvironment. Receptor positivity like epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) genotyping are critical in lung adenocarcinoma for treatment. As conventional identification of receptor positivity is an invasive procedure, we analyzed the features on non-invasive computed tomography (CT), which predicts the receptor positivity in lung adenocarcinoma. Retrospectively, we did a comprehensive study from 77 proven lung adenocarcinoma patients with CT images, EGFR and ALK receptor genotyping, and clinical information. Total 22/77 patients were receptor-positive (15 had only EGFR mutation, 6 had ALK mutation, and 1 had both EGFR and ALK mutation). Various morphological characteristics and metastatic distribution on CT were analyzed along with the clinical information. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used. On multivariable logistic regression analysis, we found spiculated margin, lymphangitic spread, air bronchogram, pleural effusion, and distant metastasis had a significant predictive value for receptor mutation status. On univariate analysis, air bronchogram and pleural effusion had significant individual predictive value. Conclusions: Receptor positive lung cancer has characteristic imaging features compared with nonreceptor positive lung adenocarcinoma. Since CT is routinely used in lung cancer diagnosis, we can predict the receptor positivity by a noninvasive technique and would follow a more aggressive algorithm for evaluation of distant metastases as well as for the treatment.

Keywords: lung cancer, multidisciplinary cancer care, oncologic imaging, radiobiology

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Authors: Tadele Tesfay Teame, Tsegaye Abrehame, Hágen István Zsombor

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Liquidity is one of the main concerns for banks, and thus achieving the optimum level of liquidity is critical. The main objective of this study is to discover the driving force of selected private commercial banks’ liquidity. In order to achieve the objective explanatory research design and quantitative research approach were used. Data has been collected from a secondary source of the sampled Ethiopian private commercial banks’ financial statements, the National Bank of Ethiopia, and the Minister of Finance, the sample covering the period from 2011 to 2022. Bank-specific and macroeconomic variables were analyzed by using the balanced panel fixed effect regression model. Bank’s liquidity ratio is measured by the total liquid asset to total deposits. The findings of the study revealed that bank size, capital adequacy, loan growth rate, and non-performing loan had a statistically significant impact on private commercial banks’ liquidity, and annual inflation rate and interest rate margin had a statistically significant impact on the liquidity of Ethiopian private commercial banks measured by L1 (bank liquidity). Thus, banks in Ethiopia should not only be concerned about internal structures and policies/procedures, but they must consider both the internal environment and the macroeconomic environment together in developing their strategies to efficiently manage their liquidity position and private commercial banks to maintain their financial proficiency shall have bank liquidity management policy by assimilating both bank-specific and macro-economic variables.

Keywords: liquidity, Ethiopian private commercial banks, liquidity ratio, panel data regression analysis

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Authors: Segen Asayehegn

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Introduction: In Tigray, Ethiopia, next to cervical cancer, breast cancer is one of the most common cancer health problems for women. Objectives: This article is proposed to identify the prospective and potential risk factors affecting the time-to-first-recurrence of breast cancer patients in Tigray, Ethiopia. Methods: The data were taken from the patient’s medical record that registered from January 2010 to January 2020. The study considered a sample size of 1842 breast cancer patients. Powerful non-parametric and parametric shared frailty survival regression models (FSRM) were applied, and model comparisons were performed. Results: Out of 1842 breast cancer patients, about 1290 (70.02%) recovered/cured the disease. The median cure time from breast cancer is found at 12.8 months. The model comparison suggested that the lognormal parametric shared a frailty survival regression model predicted that treatment, stage of breast cancer, smoking habit, and marital status significantly affects the first recurrence of breast cancer. Conclusion: Factors like treatment, stages of cancer, and marital status were improved while smoking habits worsened the time to cure breast cancer. Recommendation: Thus, the authors recommend reducing breast cancer health problems, the regional health sector facilities need to be improved. More importantly, concerned bodies and medical doctors should emphasize the identified factors during treatment. Furthermore, general awareness programs should be given to the community on the identified factors.

Keywords: acceleration factor, breast cancer, Ethiopia, shared frailty survival models, Tigray

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Authors: Sadhana Ghnayem

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This article examines the relationship between several socio-economic and background variables of Arab-Israeli families and their effect on the conflict management style of forcing, where teenage children are expected to obey their parents without questioning. The article explores the inter-generational gap and the desire of Arab-Israeli parents to force their teenage children to obey without questioning. The independent variables include: the sex of the parent, religion (Christian or Muslim), income of the parent, years of education of the parent, and the sex of the teenage child. We use the dependent variable of “Obedience Without Questioning” that is reported twice: by each of the parents as well as by the children. We circulated a questionnaire and collected data from a sample of 180 parents and their adolescent child living in the Galilee area during 2018. In this questionnaire we asked each of the parent and his/her teenage child about whether the latter is expected to follow the instructions of the former without questioning. The outcome of this article indicates, first, that Christian-Arab families are less authoritarian than Muslims families in demanding sheer obedience from their children. Second, female parents indicate more than male parents that their teenage child indeed obeys without questioning. Third, there is a negative correlation between the variable “Income” and “Obedience without Questioning.” Yet, the regression coefficient of this variable is close zero. Fourth, there is a positive correlation between years of education and obedience reported by the children. In other words, more educated parents are more likely to demand obedience from their children.  Finally, after running the regression, the study also found that the impact of the variables of religion as well as the sex of the child on the dependent variable of obedience is also significant at above 95 and 90%, respectively.

Keywords: conflict, religion, conflict management style, obedience

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Authors: Gideon C. Joseph

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The ability to localize mobile devices is quite important, as some applications may require location information of these devices to operate or deliver better services to the users. Although there are several ways of acquiring location data of mobile devices, the WLAN fingerprinting approach has been considered in this work. This approach uses the Received Signal Strength Indicator (RSSI) measurement as a function of the position of the mobile device. RSSI is a quantitative technique of describing the radio frequency power carried by a signal. RSSI may be used to determine RF link quality and is very useful in dense traffic scenarios where interference is of major concern, for example, indoor environments. This research aims to design a system that can predict the location of a mobile device, when supplied with the mobile’s RSSIs. The developed system takes as input the RSSIs relating to the mobile device, and outputs parameters that describe the location of the device such as the longitude, latitude, floor, and building. The relationship between the Received Signal Strengths (RSSs) of mobile devices and their corresponding locations is meant to be modelled; hence, subsequent locations of mobile devices can be predicted using the developed model. It is obvious that describing mathematical relationships between the RSSIs measurements and localization parameters is one option to modelling the problem, but the complexity of such an approach is a serious turn-off. In contrast, we propose an intelligent system that can learn the mapping of such RSSIs measurements to the localization parameters to be predicted. The system is capable of upgrading its performance as more experiential knowledge is acquired. The most appealing consideration to using such a system for this task is that complicated mathematical analysis and theoretical frameworks are excluded or not needed; the intelligent system on its own learns the underlying relationship in the supplied data (RSSI levels) that corresponds to the localization parameters. These localization parameters to be predicted are of two different tasks: Longitude and latitude of mobile devices are real values (regression problem), while the floor and building of the mobile devices are of integer values or categorical (classification problem). This research work presents artificial neural network based intelligent systems to model the relationship between the RSSIs predictors and the mobile device localization parameters. The designed systems were trained and validated on the collected WLAN fingerprint database. The trained networks were then tested with another supplied database to obtain the performance of trained systems on achieved Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and error rates for the regression and classification tasks involved therein.

Keywords: indoor localization, WLAN fingerprinting, neural networks, classification, regression

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Authors: Atia Alam

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Growing liberalisation and intense market competition increase firm’s risk exposure and induce corporations to use derivatives extensively as a risk management instrument, which results in decrease in firm’s risk, and increase in value. Present study contributes towards existing literature by providing an in-depth analysis regarding the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value by using panel data models and seemingly unrelated regression technique. New evidence is established in current literature by dividing the sample data based on firm’s Exchange Rate (ER) and Interest Rate (IR) exposure. Analysis is performed for the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value and its variation with respect to the ER and IR exposure. Sample data consists of 166 Pakistani firms listed on Pakistan stock exchange for the period of 2004-2010. Results show that extensive usage of derivative instruments significantly increases firm value and reduces firm’s risk. Furthermore, comprehensive analysis depicts that Pakistani corporations having higher exchange rate exposure, with respect to foreign sales, and higher interest rate exposure, on the basis of industry adjusted leverage, have higher firm value and lower risk. Findings from seemingly unrelated regression also provide robustness to results obtained through panel data analysis. Study also highlights the role of derivative usage as a risk management instrument in high and low ER and IR risk and helps practitioners in understanding how value increasing effect of extent of derivative usage varies with the intensity of firm’s risk exposure.

Keywords: extent of derivative usage, firm value, risk, Pakistan, non-financial firms

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Authors: Noor Hasmini Abdghani, Nik Kamariah Nikmat, Nor Hayati Ahmad

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Rapid growth of the internet technology led to changes in the consumer lifestyles. This involved customer buying behaviour-based internet that create new kind of buying strategy. Hence, it has summoned many of world firms including Malaysia to generate new quality strategy in preparation to face new customer buying lifestyles. Particularly, this study focused on identifying online customer segment of automobile passenger car customers. Secondly, the objective is to understand online customer’s receptiveness towards internet technologies. This study distributed 700 questionnaires whereby 582 were returned representing 83% response rate. The data were analysed using factor and regression analyses. The result from the factor analysis precipitates four online passenger car segmentations in Malaysia, which are: Segment (1)- Automobile Online shopping Preferences, Segment (2)- Automobile Online Brand Comparison, Segment (3)- Automobile Online Information Seeking and Segment (4)- Automobile Offline Shopping Preferences. In understanding the online customer’s receptiveness towards internet, the regression result shows that there is significant relationship between each of four segments of online passenger car customer with attitude towards automobile online shopping. This implies that, for online customers to have receptiveness toward internet technologies, he or she must have preferences toward online shopping or at least prefer to browse any related information online even if the actual purchase is made at the traditional store. With this proposed segmentation strategy, the firms especially the automobile firms will be able to understand their online customer behavior. At least, the proposed segmentation strategy will help the firms to strategize quality management approach for their online customers’ buying decision making.

Keywords: Automobile, Market Segmentation, Online Shopping Attitude, Quality Management Strategy

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Authors: Mohammad Sadegh Allahyari, Sorush Marzban

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The main aim of this study was to investigate the factors affecting farmers' attitude of the Shanderman District in Masal (Guilan Province in the north of Iran), towards the concepts of multifunctional agriculture. The statistical population consisted of all 4908 in Shanderman.The sample of the present study consisted of 209 subjects who were selected from the total population using the Bartlett et al. Table. Questionnaire as the main tool of data collection was divided in two parts. The first part of questionnaire consisted of farmers' profiles regarding individual, technical-agronomic, economic and social characteristics. The second part included items to identify the farmers’ attitudes regarding different aspects of multifunctional agriculture. The validity of the questionnaire was assessed by professors and experts. Cronbach's alpha was used to determine the reliability (α= 0.844), which is considered an acceptable reliability value. Overall, the average scores of attitudes towards multifunctional agriculture show a positive tendency towards multifunctional agriculture, considering farmers' attitudes of the Shanderman district (SD = 0.53, M = 3.81). Results also highlight a significant difference between farmers' income source levels (F = 0.049) and agricultural literature review (F = 0.022) toward farmers' attitudes considering multifunctional agriculture (p < 0.05). Pearson correlations also indicated that there is a positive relationship between positive attitudes and family size (r = 0.154), farmers' experience (r = 0.246), size of land under cultivation (r = 0.186), income (r = 0.227), and social contribution activities (r = 0.224). The results of multiple regression analyses showed that the variation in the dependent variable depended on the farmers' experience in agricultural activities and their social contribution activities. This means that the variables included in the regression analysis are estimated to explain 12 percent of the variation in the dependent variable.

Keywords: multifunctional agriculture, attitude, effective factor, sustainable agriculture

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Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

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The main objective of this study is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in forecasting ground-motion intensity measures given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition. Intensity measures such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Estimating these variables for future earthquake events is a key step in seismic hazard assessment and potentially subsequent risk assessment of different types of structures. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as a statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The algorithms are adjusted to quantify event-to-event and site-to-site variability of the ground motions by implementing them as random effects in the proposed models to reduce the aleatory uncertainty. All the algorithms are trained using a selected database of 4,528 ground-motions, including 376 seismic events with magnitude 3 to 5.8, recorded over the hypocentral distance range of 4 to 500 km in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas since 2005. The main reason of the considered database stems from the recent increase in the seismicity rate of these states attributed to petroleum production and wastewater disposal activities, which necessities further investigation in the ground motion models developed for these states. Accuracy of the models in predicting intensity measures, generalization capability of the models for future data, as well as usability of the models are discussed in the evaluation process. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available.

Keywords: artificial neural network, ground-motion models, machine learning, random forest, support vector machine

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Authors: Zerubabel Mihret

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Background: Work-related stress is a pattern of reactions to work demands unmatched by worker’s knowledge, skills, or abilities. Healthcare institutions are considered high-risk and intensive work areas for work-related stress. However, there is the nonexistence of clear and strong data about the magnitude of work-related stress on sanitation workers in hospitals in Ethiopia. The aim of this study was to determine the magnitude of work-related stress among sanitation workers in public hospitals during COVID-19 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methods: Institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted from October 2021 to February 2022 among 494 sanitation workers who were selected from 4 hospitals. HSE (Health and Safety Executive of UK) standard data collection tool was used, and an interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect the data using KOBO collect application. The collected data were cleaned and analyzed using SPSS version 20.0. Both binary and multivariable logistic regression analyses were done to identify important factors having an association with work-related stress. Variables with p-value ≤ 0.25 in the bivariate analysis were entered into the multivariable logistic regression model. A statistically significant level was declared at a p-value ≤ 0.05. Results: This study revealed that the magnitude of work-related stress among sanitation workers was 49.2% (95% CI 45-54). Significant proportions (72.7%) of sanitation workers were dissatisfied with their current job. Sex, age, experience, and chewing khat were significantly associated with work-related stress. Conclusion: Work-related stress is significantly high among sanitation workers. Sex, age, experience, and chewing khat were identified as factors associated with work-related stress. Intervention program focusing on the prevention and control of stress is desired by hospitals.

Keywords: work-related stress, sanitation workers, Likert scale, public hospitals, Ethiopia

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Authors: Lei Ye, Min Liu, Yong-Li Gao, Jun Zhang

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Purpose: The aims of the study are to investigate the status of health-promoting lifestyle and to compare the healthy lifestyle of emergency nurses in different levels of hospitals in Sichuan province, China. The investigation is mainly about the health-promoting lifestyle, including spiritual growth, health responsibility, physical activity, nutrition, interpersonal relations, stress management. Then the factors were analyzed influencing the health-promoting lifestyle of emergency nurses in hospitals of Sichuan province in order to find the relevant models to provide reference evidence for intervention. Study Design: A cross-sectional research method was adopted. Stratified cluster sampling, based on geographical location, was used to select the health facilities of 1389 emergency nurses in 54 hospitals from Sichuan province in China. Method: The 52-item, six-factor structure Health-Promoting Lifestyle Profile II (HPLP- II) instrument was used to explore participants’ self-reported health-promoting behaviors and measure the dimensions of health responsibility, physical activity, nutrition, interpersonal relations, spiritual growth, and stress management. Demographic characteristics, education, work duration, emergency nursing work duration and self-rated health status were documented. Analysis: Data were analyzed through SPSS software ver. 17.0. Frequency, percentage, mean ± standard deviation were used to describe the general information, while the Nonparametric Test was used to compare the constituent ratio of general data of different hospitals. One-way ANOVA was used to compare the scores of health-promoting lifestyle in different levels hospital. A multiple linear regression model was established. P values which were less than 0.05 determined statistical significance in all analyses. Result: The survey showed that the total score of health-promoting lifestyle of nurses at emergency departments in Sichuan Province was 120.49 ± 21.280. The relevant dimensions are ranked by scores in descending order: interpersonal relations, nutrition, health responsibility, physical activity, stress management, spiritual growth. The total scores of the three-A hospital were the highest (121.63 ± 0.724), followed by the senior class hospital (119.7 ± 1.362) and three-B hospital (117.80 ± 1.255). The difference was statistically significant (P=0.024). The general data of nurses was used as the independent variable which includes age, gender, marital status, living conditions, nursing income, hospital level, Length of Service in nursing, Length of Service in emergency, Professional Title, education background, and the average number of night shifts. The total score of health-promoting lifestyle was used as dependent variable; Multiple linear regression analysis method was adopted to establish the regression model. The regression equation F = 20.728, R2 = 0.061, P < 0.05, the age, gender, nursing income, turnover intention and status of coping stress affect the health-promoting lifestyle of nurses in emergency department, the result was statistically significant (P < 0.05 ). Conclusion: The results of the investigation indicate that it will help to develop health promoting interventions for emergency nurses in all levels of hospital in Sichuan Province through further research. Managers need to pay more attention to emergency nurses’ exercise, stress management, self-realization, and conduct intervention in nurse training programs.

Keywords: emergency nurse, health-promoting lifestyle profile II, health behaviors, lifestyle

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Authors: Lea Stein, Sabine Rösner, Alessandra Lo Giudice, Beate Ditzen, Tewes Wischmann

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For many couples bearing children is a consistent life goal; however, it cannot always be fulfilled. Undergoing infertility treatment does not guarantee pregnancies and live births. Couples have to deal with miscarriages and sometimes even discontinue infertility treatment. Significant medical predictors for the outcome of infertility treatment have yet to be fully identified. To further our understanding, a cross-sectional five-year follow-up survey was undertaken, in which 95 women and 82 men that have been treated at the Women’s Hospital of Heidelberg University participated. Binary logistic regressions, parametric and non-parametric methods were used for our sample to determine the relevance of biological (infertility diagnoses, maternal and paternal age) and lifestyle factors (smoking, drinking, over- and underweight) on the outcome of infertility treatment (clinical pregnancy, live birth, miscarriage, dropout rate). During infertility treatment, 72.6% of couples became pregnant and 69.5% were able to give birth. Suffering from miscarriages 27.5% of couples and 20.5% decided to discontinue an unsuccessful fertility treatment. The binary logistic regression models for clinical pregnancies, live births and dropouts were statistically significant for the maternal age, whereas the paternal age in addition to maternal and paternal BMI, smoking, infertility diagnoses and infections, showed no significant predicting effect on any of the outcome variables. The results confirm an effect of maternal age on infertility treatment, whereas the relevance of other medical predictors remains unclear. Further investigations should be considered to increase our knowledge of medical predictors.

Keywords: advanced maternal age, assisted reproductive technology, female factor, male factor, medical predictors, infertility treatment, reproductive medicine

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Authors: Franklin N. Mabe, Samuel A. Donkoh, Seidu Al-Hassan

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In order to increase and bridge the differences in rice yield, many farmers have resorted to adopting Farmer Innovation Systems (FISs) and Improved Agricultural Technologies (IATs). This study econometrically analysed the impacts of adoption of FISs and IATs on rice yield using multinomial endogenous switching regression (MESR). Nine-hundred and seven (907) rice farmers from Guinea Savannah Zone (GSZ), Forest Savannah Transition Zone (FSTZ) and Coastal Savannah Zone (CSZ) were used for the study. The study used both primary and secondary data. FBO advice, rice farming experience and distance from farming communities to input markets increase farmers’ adoption of only FISs. Factors that increase farmers’ probability of adopting only IATs are access to extension advice, credit, improved seeds and contract farming. Farmers located in CSZ have higher probability of adopting only IATs than their counterparts living in other agro-ecological zones. Age and access to input subsidy increase the probability of jointly adopting FISs and IATs. FISs and IATs have heterogeneous impact on rice yield with adoption of only IATs having the highest impact followed by joint adoption of FISs and IATs. It is important for stakeholders in rice subsector to champion the provision of improved rice seeds, the intensification of agricultural extension services and contract farming concept. Researchers should endeavour to researched into FISs.

Keywords: farmer innovation systems, improved agricultural technologies, multinomial endogenous switching regression, treatment effect

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Authors: Brindha Senthil Kumar, Payel Chakraborty, Senthil Kumar Nachimuthu, Arindam Maitra, Prem Nath

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Gastric cancer is predominantly caused by demographic and diet factors as compared to other cancer types. The aim of the study is to predict Early Gastric Cancer (ECG) from diet and lifestyle factors using supervised machine learning algorithms. For this study, 160 healthy individual and 80 cases were selected who had been followed for 3 years (2016-2019), at Civil Hospital, Aizawl, Mizoram. A dataset containing 11 features that are core risk factors for the gastric cancer were extracted. Supervised machine algorithms: Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Multilayer perceptron, and Random Forest were used to analyze the dataset using Python Jupyter Notebook Version 3. The obtained classified results had been evaluated using metrics parameters: minimum_false_positives, brier_score, accuracy, precision, recall, F1_score, and Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve. Data analysis results showed Naive Bayes - 88, 0.11; Random Forest - 83, 0.16; SVM - 77, 0.22; Logistic Regression - 75, 0.25 and Multilayer perceptron - 72, 0.27 with respect to accuracy and brier_score in percent. Naive Bayes algorithm out performs with very low false positive rates as well as brier_score and good accuracy. Naive Bayes algorithm classification results in predicting ECG showed very satisfactory results using only diet cum lifestyle factors which will be very helpful for the physicians to educate the patients and public, thereby mortality of gastric cancer can be reduced/avoided with this knowledge mining work.

Keywords: Early Gastric cancer, Machine Learning, Diet, Lifestyle Characteristics

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Authors: Salah R. Al Zaidee, Ali S. Mahdi

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Except for simple problems of statically determinate structures, optimum design problems in structural engineering have implicit objective functions where structural analysis and design are essential within each searching loop. With these implicit functions, the structural engineer is usually enforced to write his/her own computer code for analysis, design, and searching for optimum design among many feasible candidates and cannot take advantage of available software for structural analysis, design, and searching for the optimum solution. The meta-model is a regression model used to transform an implicit objective function into objective one and leads in turn to decouple the structural analysis and design processes from the optimum searching process. With the meta-model, well-known software for structural analysis and design can be used in sequence with optimum searching software. In this paper, the meta-model has been used to develop an explicit objective function for plane steel frames subjected to dead, live, and seismic forces. Frame topology is assumed as predefined based on architectural and functional requirements. Columns and beams sections and different connections details are the main design variables in this study. Columns and beams are grouped to reduce the number of design variables and to make the problem similar to that adopted in engineering practice. Data for the implicit objective function have been generated based on analysis and assessment for many design proposals with CSI SAP software. These data have been used later in SPSS software to develop a pure quadratic nonlinear regression model for the explicit objective function. Good correlations with a coefficient, R², in the range from 0.88 to 0.99 have been noted between the original implicit functions and the corresponding explicit functions generated with meta-model.

Keywords: meta-modal, objective function, steel frames, seismic analysis, design

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Authors: Palash Bandyopadhyay

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Background and significance of the study: Crude oil and natural gas is of crucial importance due to its increasing demand in India. The demand has been increased because of change of lifestyle overtime. Since India has poor utilization of oil production capacity, constantly the import of it has been increased progressively day by day. This ultimately hit the foreign exchange reserves of India, however it negatively affect the Indian economy as well. The financial performance of crude oil and natural gas companies in India has been trimmed down year after year because of underutilization of production capacity, enhancement of demand, change in life style, and change in import bill and outflows of foreign currencies. In this background, the current study seeks to measure the financial performance of crude oil and natural gas companies of India in the post liberalization period. Keeping in view of this, this study assesses the financial performance in terms of liquidity management, solvency, efficiency, financial stability, and profitability of the companies under study. Methodology: This research work is encircled on yearly ratio data collected from Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) Prowess database for the periods between 1993-94 and 2012-13 with 20 observations using liquidity, solvency and efficiency indicators, profitability indicators and financial stability indicators of all the major crude oil and natural gas companies in India. In the course of analysis, descriptive statistics, correlation statistics, and linear regression test have been utilized. Major findings: Descriptive statistics indicate that liquidity position is satisfactory in case of three crude oil and natural gas companies (Oil and Natural Gas Companies Videsh Limited, Oil India Limited and Selan exploration and transportation Limited) out of selected companies under study but solvency position is satisfactory only for one company (Oil and Natural Gas Companies Videsh Limited). However, efficiency analysis points out that Oil and Natural Gas Companies Videsh Limited performs effectively the management of inventory, receivables, and payables, but the overall liquidity management is not well. Profitability position is very much satisfactory in case of all the companies except Tata Petrodyne Limited, but profitability management is not satisfactory for all the companies under study. Financial stability analysis shows that all the companies are more dependent on debt capital, which bears a financial risk. Correlation and regression test results illustrates that profitability is positively and negatively associated with liquidity, solvency, efficiency, and financial stability indicators. Concluding statement: Management of liquidity and profitability of crude oil and natural gas companies in India should have been improved through controlling unnecessary imports in spite of the heavy demand of crude oil and natural gas in India and proper utilization of domestic oil reserves. At the same time, Indian government has to concern about rupee depreciation and interest rates.

Keywords: financial performance, crude oil and natural gas companies, India, linear regression

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Authors: Mohammad Azam

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This work is an endeavor to empirically investigate the Gross Domestic Product-Growth as mediating variable between various factors and portfolio returns using a broad sample of 522 financial and non-financial firms enlisted on Pakistan Stock Exchange between January-1993 and June-2022. The study employs the Structural Equation modeling and Ordinary Least Square regression to determine the findings before and during the Covid-19 epidemiological situation, which has not received due attention by researchers. The analysis reveals that market and investment factors are redundant, whereas size and value show significant results, whereas Gross Domestic Product-Growth performs significant mediating impact for the whole time frame. Using before Covid-19 period, the results reveal that market, value, and investment are redundant, but size, profitability, and Gross Domestic Product-Growth are significant. During the Covid-19, the statistics indicate that market and investment are redundant, though size and Gross Domestic Product-Growth are highly significant, but value and profitability are moderately significant. The Ordinary Least Square regression shows that market and investment are statistically insignificant, whereas size is highly significant but value and profitability are marginally significant. Using the Gross Domestic Product-Growth augmented model, a slight growth in R-square is observed. The size, value and profitability factors are recommended to the investors for Pakistan Stock Exchange. Conclusively, in the Pakistani market, the Gross Domestic Product-Growth indicates a feeble moderating effect between risk-premia and portfolio returns.

Keywords: asset pricing puzzle, mediating role of GDP-growth, structural equation modeling, COVID-19 pandemic, Pakistan stock exchange

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Authors: Keerti Kembhavi, M. R. Archana, V. Anjaneyappa

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Most asphalt pavement condition evaluation use rating frameworks in which asphalt pavement distress is estimated by type, extent, and severity. Rating is carried out by the pavement condition rating (PCR), which is tedious and expensive. This paper presents the development of a low-cost technique for image pavement distress analysis that permits the identification of pothole and cracks. The paper explores the application of image processing tools for the detection of potholes and cracks. Longitudinal cracking and pothole are detected using Fuzzy-C- Means (FCM) and proceeded with the Spectral Theory algorithm. The framework comprises three phases, including image acquisition, processing, and extraction of features. A digital camera (Gopro) with the holder is used to capture pavement distress images on a moving vehicle. FCM classifier and Spectral Theory algorithms are used to compute features and classify the longitudinal cracking and pothole. The Matlab2016Ra Image preparing tool kit utilizes performance analysis to identify the viability of pavement distress on selected urban stretches of Bengaluru city, India. The outcomes of image evaluation with the utilization semi-computerized image handling framework represented the features of longitudinal crack and pothole with an accuracy of about 80%. Further, the detected images are validated with the actual dimensions, and it is seen that dimension variability is about 0.46. The linear regression model y=1.171x-0.155 is obtained using the existing and experimental / image processing area. The R2 correlation square obtained from the best fit line is 0.807, which is considered in the linear regression model to be ‘large positive linear association’.

Keywords: crack detection, pothole detection, spectral clustering, fuzzy-c-means

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Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

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The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second –95,3%.

Keywords: bass model, generalized bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States

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Authors: Wendu Pang, Yaxin Luo, Junhong Li, Yu Zhao, Danni Cheng, Yufang Rao, Minzi Mao, Ke Qiu, Yijun Dong, Fei Chen, Jun Liu, Jian Zou, Haiyang Wang, Wei Xu, Jianjun Ren

Abstract:

We aimed to compare the prognostic prediction value of positive lymph node number (PLNN) to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor, lymph node, and metastasis (TNM) staging system for patients with hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HPSCC). A total of 826 patients with HPSCC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2004–2015) were identified and split into two independent cohorts: training (n=461) and validation (n=365). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the prognostic effects of PLNN in patients with HPSCC. We further applied six Cox regression models to compare the survival predictive values of the PLNN and AJCC TNM staging system. PLNN showed a significant association with overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) (P < 0.001) in both univariate and multivariable analyses, and was divided into three groups (PLNN 0, PLNN 1-5, and PLNN>5). In the training cohort, multivariate analysis revealed that the increased PLNN of HPSCC gave rise to significantly poor OS and CSS after adjusting for age, sex, tumor size, and cancer stage; this trend was also verified by the validation cohort. Additionally, the survival model incorporating a composite of PLNN and TNM classification (C-index, 0.705, 0.734) performed better than the PLNN and AJCC TNM models. PLNN can serve as a powerful survival predictor for patients with HPSCC and is a surrogate supplement for cancer staging systems.

Keywords: hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma, positive lymph nodes number, prognosis, prediction models, survival predictive values

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Authors: Nur Atiqah Adam, Mor Jack Ng, Bernard Chern, Kok Hian Tan

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Introduction: Gestational diabetes (GDM) is a common pregnancy complication with short and long-term health consequences for both mother and fetus. Factors such as family history of diabetes mellitus, maternal obesity, maternal age, ethnicity and parity have been reported to influence the risk of GDM. In a multi-racial country like Singapore, it is worthwhile to study the GDM prevalences of different ethnicities. We aim to investigate the influence of ethnicity on the racial prevalences of GDM in Singapore. This is important as it may help us to improve guidelines on GDM healthcare services according to significant risk factors unique to Singapore. Materials and Methods: Obstetric cohort data of 926 singleton deliveries in KK Women’s and Children’s Hospital (KKH) from 2011 to 2013 was obtained. Only patients aged 18 and above and without complicated pregnancies or chronic illnesses were targeted. Factors such as ethnicity, maternal age, parity and maternal body mass index (BMI) at booking visit were studied. A multivariable logistic regression model, adjusted for confounders, was used to determine which of these factors are significantly associated with an increased risk of GDM. Results: The overall GDM prevalence rate based on WHO 1999 criteria & at risk screening (race alone not a risk factor) was 8.86%. GDM rates were higher among women above 35 years old (15.96%), obese (15.15%) and multiparous women (10.12%). Indians had a higher GDM rate (13.0 %) compared to the Chinese (9.57%) and Malays (5.20%). However, using multiple logistic regression model, variables that are significantly related to GDM rates were maternal age (p < 0.001) and maternal BMI at booking visit (p = 0.006). Conclusion: Maternal age (p < 0.001) and maternal booking BMI (p = 0.006) are the strongest risk factors for GDM. Ethnicity per se does not seem to have a significant influence on the prevalence of GDM in Singapore (p = 0.064). Hence we should tailor guidelines on GDM healthcare services according to maternal age and booking BMI rather than ethnicity.

Keywords: ethnicity, gestational diabetes, healthcare, pregnancy

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Authors: Yahaya Abdullahi, Ben Coetzee, Linda Van Den Berg

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The study aimed at establishing the global positioning system (GPS) determined singles match characteristics that act as predictors of successful and less-successful male singles badminton players’ group classification. Twenty-two (22) male single players (aged: 23.39 ± 3.92 years; body stature: 177.11 ± 3.06cm; body mass: 83.46 ± 14.59kg) who represented 10 African countries participated in the study. Players were categorised as successful and less-successful players according to the results of five championships’ of the 2014/2015 season. GPS units (MinimaxX V4.0), Polar Heart Rate Transmitter Belts and digital video cameras were used to collect match data. GPS-related variables were corrected for match duration and independent t-tests, a cluster analysis and a binary forward stepwise logistic regression were calculated. A Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC) was used to determine the validity of the group classification model. High-intensity accelerations per second were identified as the only GPS-determined variable that showed a significant difference between groups. Furthermore, only high-intensity accelerations per second (p=0.03) and low-intensity efforts per second (p=0.04) were identified as significant predictors of group classification with 76.88% of players that could be classified back into their original groups by making use of the GPS-based logistic regression formula. The ROC showed a value of 0.87. The identification of the last-mentioned GPS-related variables for the attainment of badminton performances, emphasizes the importance of using badminton drills and conditioning techniques to not only improve players’ physical fitness levels but also their abilities to accelerate at high intensities.

Keywords: badminton, global positioning system, match analysis, inertial movement analysis, intensity, effort

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Authors: Zhuoran Shan, Li Wan, Xianchun Zhang

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With an increasing trend of regionalization and polycentricity in Chinese contemporary big cities, “sub-region life circle” turns to be an effective method on rational organization of urban function and spatial structure. By the method of questionnaire, network big data, route inversion on internet map, GIS spatial analysis and logistic regression, this article makes research on characteristic and formation mechanism of “sub-region life circle” based on human high-probability daily activity in Chinese big cities. Firstly, it shows that “sub-region life circle” has been a new general spatial sphere of residents' high-probability daily activity and mobility in China. Unlike the former analysis of the whole metropolitan or the micro community, “sub-region life circle” has its own characteristic on geographical sphere, functional element, spatial morphology and land distribution. Secondly, according to the analysis result with Binary Logistic Regression Model, the research also shows that seven factors including land-use mixed degree and bus station density impact the formation of “sub-region life circle” most, and then analyzes the index critical value of each factor. Finally, to establish a smarter “sub-region life circle”, this paper indicates that several strategies including jobs-housing fit, service cohesion and space reconstruction are the keys for its spatial organization optimization. This study expands the further understanding of cities' inner sub-region spatial structure based on human daily activity, and contributes to the theory of “life circle” in urban's meso-scale.

Keywords: sub-region life circle, characteristic, formation mechanism, human activity, spatial structure

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Authors: Suphaphon Udomluck, Pannathorn Chachvarat

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Information Communication Technology (ICT) using management is essential for effective decision making in organization. The Concerns Based Adoption Model (CBAM) was employed as the conceptual framework. The purposes of the study were to assess the situation of Information Communication Technology (ICT) using management in College of Nursing under the Praboromarajchanok Institute. The samples were multi – stage sampling of 10 colleges of nursing that participated include directors, vice directors, head of learning groups, teachers, system administrator and responsible for ICT. The total participants were 280; the instrument used were questionnaires that include 4 parts, general information, Information Communication Technology (ICT) using management, the Stage of concern Questionnaires (SoC), and the Levels of Use (LoU) ICT Questionnaires respectively. Reliability coefficients were tested; alpha coefficients were 0.967for Information Communication Technology (ICT) using management, 0.884 for SoC and 0.945 for LoU. The data were analyzed by frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, Pearson Product Moment Correlation and Multiple Regression. They were founded as follows: The high level overall score of Information Communication Technology (ICT) using management and issue were administration, hardware, software, and people. The overall score of the Stage of concern (SoC)ICTis at high level and the overall score of the Levels of Use (LoU) ICTis at moderate. The Information Communication Technology (ICT) using management had the positive relationship with the Stage of concern (SoC)ICTand the Levels of Use (LoU) ICT(p < .01). The results of Multiple Regression revealed that administration hardwear, software and people ware could predict SoC of ICT (18.5%) and LoU of ICT (20.8%).The factors that were significantly influenced by SoCs were people ware. The factors that were significantly influenced by LoU of ICT were administration hardware and people ware.

Keywords: information communication technology (ICT), management, the concerns-based adoption model (CBAM), stage of concern(SoC), the levels of use(LoU)

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Authors: Samuel Asiedu-Addo, Jonathan Annan, Yarhands Dissou Arthur

Abstract:

The study aims to explore the relational effect of lecturers’ personal attribute on student’s interest in statistics. In this study personal attributes of lecturers’ such as lecturer’s dynamism, communication strategies and rapport in the classroom as well as applied knowledge during lecture were examined. Here, exploratory research design was used to establish the effect of lecturer’s personal attributes on student’s interest. Data were analyzed by means of confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling (SEM) using the SmartPLS 3 program. The study recruited 376 students from the faculty of technical and vocational education of the University of Education Winneba Kumasi campus, and Ghana Technology University College as well as Kwame Nkrumah University of science and Technology. The results revealed that personal attributes of an effective lecturer were lecturer’s dynamism, rapport, communication and applied knowledge contribute (52.9%) in explaining students interest in statistics. Our regression analysis and structural equation modeling confirm that lecturers personal attribute contribute effectively by predicting student’s interest of 52.9% and 53.7% respectively. The paper concludes that the total effect of a lecturer’s attribute on student’s interest is moderate and significant. While a lecturer’s communication and dynamism were found to contribute positively to students’ interest, they were insignificant in predicting students’ interest. We further showed that a lecturer’s personal attributes such as applied knowledge and rapport have positive and significant effect on tertiary student’s interest in statistic, whilst lecturers’ communication and dynamism do not significantly affect student interest in statistics; though positively related.

Keywords: student interest, effective teacher, personal attributes, regression and SEM

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Authors: Olivia Rachel Hwang, Yu-Hsuan Joni Shao

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Androgen Deprivation Therapy (ADT) has been a primary treatment for patients with advanced prostate cancer. However, it is associated with numerous adverse effects related to Metabolic Syndrome (MetS), including hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidaemia, heart diseases and ischemic strokes. However, complications associated with ADT for prostate cancer in Taiwan is not well documented. The purpose of this study is to utilize the data from NHIRD (National Health Insurance Research Database) to examine the trajectory changes of MetS-related complications in men receiving ADT. The risks of developing complications after the treatment were analyzed with multivariate Cox regression model. Covariates including in the model were the complications before the diagnosis of prostate cancer, the age, and the year at cancer diagnosis. A total number of 17268 patients from 1997-2013 were included in this study. The exclusion criteria were patients with any other types of cancer or with the existing MetS-related complications. Changes in MetS-related complications were observed among two treatment groups: 1) ADT (n=9042), and 2) non-ADT (n=8226). The ADT group appeared to have an increased risk in hypertension (hazard ratio 1.08, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.13, P = 0.001) and hyperlipidemia (hazard ratio 1.09, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.17, P = 0.02) when compared with non-ADT group in the multivariate Cox regression analyses. In the risk of diabetes, heart diseases, and ischemic strokes, ADT group appeared to have an increased but not significant hazard ratio. In conclusion, ADT was associated with an increased risk in hypertension and hyperlipidemia in prostate cancer patients in Taiwan. The risk of hypertension and hyperlipidemia should be considered while deciding on ADT, especially those with the known history of hypertension and hyperlipidemia.

Keywords: androgen deprivation therapy, ADT, complications, metabolic syndrome, MetS, prostate cancer

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Authors: Avoseh Funmilola, Osman Khalid, Wayne Nelson, Paramespri Naidoo, Deresh Ramjugernath

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The increasing global atmospheric temperature is of great concern and this has led to the development of technologies to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Flue gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion are major sources of greenhouse gases. One of the ways to reduce the emission of CO₂ from flue gases is by post combustion capture process and this can be done by absorbing the gas into suitable chemical solvents before emitting the gas into the atmosphere. Alkanolamines are promising solvents for this capture process. Vapour liquid equilibrium of CO₂-alkanolamine systems is often represented by CO₂ loading and partial pressure of CO₂ without considering the liquid phase. The liquid phase of this system is a complex one comprising of 9 species. Online analysis of the process is important to monitor the concentrations of the liquid phase reacting and product species. Liquid phase analysis of CO₂-diethanolamine (DEA) solution was performed by attenuated total reflection Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy. A robust Calibration was performed for the CO₂-aqueous DEA system prior to an online monitoring experiment. The partial least square regression method was used for the analysis of the calibration spectra obtained. The models obtained were used for prediction of DEA and CO₂ concentrations in the online monitoring experiment. The experiment was performed with a newly built recirculating experimental set up in the laboratory. The set up consist of a 750 ml equilibrium cell and ATR-FTIR liquid flow cell. Measurements were performed at 400°C. The results obtained indicated that the FTIR spectroscopy combined with Partial least square method is an effective tool for online monitoring of speciation.

Keywords: ATR-FTIR, CO₂ capture, online analysis, PLS regression

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