Search results for: open loop simulation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8128

Search results for: open loop simulation

1288 Use of Two-Dimensional Hydraulics Modeling for Design of Erosion Remedy

Authors: Ayoub. El Bourtali, Abdessamed.Najine, Amrou Moussa. Benmoussa

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One of the main goals of river engineering is river training, which is defined as controlling and predicting the behavior of a river. It is taking effective measurements to eliminate all related risks and thus improve the river system. In some rivers, the riverbed continues to erode and degrade; therefore, equilibrium will never be reached. Generally, river geometric characteristics and riverbed erosion analysis are some of the most complex but critical topics in river engineering and sediment hydraulics; riverbank erosion is the second answering process in hydrodynamics, which has a major impact on the ecological chain and socio-economic process. This study aims to integrate the new computer technology that can analyze erosion and hydraulic problems through computer simulation and modeling. Choosing the right model remains a difficult and sensitive job for field engineers. This paper makes use of the 5.0.4 version of the HEC-RAS model. The river section is adopted according to the gauged station and the proximity of the adjustment. In this work, we will demonstrate how 2D hydraulic modeling helped clarify the design and cover visuals to set up depth and velocities at riverbanks and throughout advanced structures. The hydrologic engineering center's-river analysis system (HEC-RAS) 2D model was used to create a hydraulic study of the erosion model. The geometric data were generated from the 12.5-meter x 12.5-meter resolution digital elevation model. In addition to showing eroded or overturned river sections, the model output also shows patterns of riverbank changes, which can help us reduce problems caused by erosion.

Keywords: 2D hydraulics model, erosion, floodplain, hydrodynamic, HEC-RAS, riverbed erosion, river morphology, resolution digital data, sediment

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1287 On the Semantics and Pragmatics of 'Be Able To': Modality and Actualisation

Authors: Benoît Leclercq, Ilse Depraetere

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The goal of this presentation is to shed new light on the semantics and pragmatics of be able to. It presents the results of a corpus analysis based on data from the BNC (British National Corpus), and discusses these results in light of a specific stance on the semantics-pragmatics interface taking into account recent developments. Be able to is often discussed in relation to can and could, all of which can be used to express ability. Such an onomasiological approach often results in the identification of usage constraints for each expression. In the case of be able to, it is the formal properties of the modal expression (unlike can and could, be able to has non-finite forms) that are in the foreground, and the modal expression is described as the verb that conveys future ability. Be able to is also argued to expressed actualised ability in the past (I was able/could to open the door). This presentation aims to provide a more accurate pragmatic-semantic profile of be able to, based on extensive data analysis and one that is embedded in a very explicit view on the semantics-pragmatics interface. A random sample of 3000 examples (1000 for each modal verb) extracted from the BNC was analysed to account for the following issues. First, the challenge is to identify the exact semantic range of be able to. The results show that, contrary to general assumption, be able to does not only express ability but it shares most of the root meanings usually associated with the possibility modals can and could. The data reveal that what is called opportunity is, in fact, the most frequent meaning of be able to. Second, attention will be given to the notion of actualisation. It is commonly argued that be able to is the preferred form when the residue actualises: (1) The only reason he was able to do that was because of the restriction (BNC, spoken) (2) It is only through my imaginative shuffling of the aces that we are able to stay ahead of the pack. (BNC, written) Although this notion has been studied in detail within formal semantic approaches, empirical data is crucially lacking and it is unclear whether actualisation constitutes a conventional (and distinguishing) property of be able to. The empirical analysis provides solid evidence that actualisation is indeed a conventional feature of the modal. Furthermore, the dataset reveals that be able to expresses actualised 'opportunities' and not actualised 'abilities'. In the final part of this paper, attention will be given to the theoretical implications of the empirical findings, and in particular to the following paradox: how can the same expression encode both modal meaning (non-factual) and actualisation (factual)? It will be argued that this largely depends on one's conception of the semantics-pragmatics interface, and that this need not be an issue when actualisation (unlike modality) is analysed as a generalised conversational implicature and thus is considered part of the conventional pragmatic layer of be able to.

Keywords: Actualisation, Modality, Pragmatics, Semantics

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1286 Transdisciplinary Pedagogy: An Arts-Integrated Approach to Promote Authentic Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, and Mathematics Education in Initial Teacher Education

Authors: Anne Marie Morrin

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This paper will focus on the design, delivery and assessment of a transdisciplinary STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, and Mathematics) education initiative in a college of education in Ireland. The project explores a transdisciplinary approach to supporting STEAM education where the concepts, methodologies and assessments employed derive from visual art sessions within initial teacher education. The research will demonstrate that the STEAM Education approach is effective when visual art concepts and methods are placed at the core of the teaching and learning experience. Within this study, emphasis is placed on authentic collaboration and transdisciplinary pedagogical approaches with the STEAM subjects. The partners included a combination of teaching expertise in STEM and Visual Arts education, artists, in-service and pre-service teachers and children. The inclusion of all stakeholders mentioned moves towards a more authentic approach where transdisciplinary practice is at the core of the teaching and learning. Qualitative data was collected using a combination of questionnaires (focused and open-ended questions) and focus groups. In addition, the data was collected through video diaries where students reflected on their visual journals and transdisciplinary practice, which gave rich insight into participants' experiences and opinions on their learning. It was found that an effective program of STEAM education integration was informed by co-teaching (continuous professional development), which involved a commitment to adaptable and flexible approaches to teaching, learning, and assessment, as well as the importance of continuous reflection-in-action by all participants. The delivery of a transdisciplinary model of STEAM education was devised to reconceptualizatise how individual subject areas can develop essential skills and tackle critical issues (such as self-care and climate change) through data visualisation and technology. The success of the project can be attributed to the collaboration, which was inclusive, flexible and a willingness between various stakeholders to be involved in the design and implementation of the project from conception to completion. The case study approach taken is particularistic (focusing on the STEAM-ED project), descriptive (providing in-depth descriptions from varied and multiple perspectives), and heuristic (interpreting the participants’ experiences and what meaning they attributed to their experiences).

Keywords: collaboration, transdisciplinary, STEAM, visual arts education

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1285 Hydrodynamics Study on Planing Hull with and without Step Using Numerical Solution

Authors: Koe Han Beng, Khoo Boo Cheong

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The rising interest of stepped hull design has been led by the demand of more efficient high-speed boat. At the same time, the need of accurate prediction method for stepped planing hull is getting more important. By understanding the flow at high Froude number is the key in designing a practical step hull, the study surrounding stepped hull has been done mainly in the towing tank which is time-consuming and costly for initial design phase. Here the feasibility of predicting hydrodynamics of high-speed planing hull both with and without step using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with the volume of fluid (VOF) methodology is studied in this work. First the flow around the prismatic body is analyzed, the force generated and its center of pressure are compared with available experimental and empirical data from the literature. The wake behind the transom on the keel line as well as the quarter beam buttock line are then compared with the available data, this is important since the afterbody flow of stepped hull is subjected from the wake of the forebody. Finally the calm water performance prediction of a conventional planing hull and its stepped version is then analyzed. Overset mesh methodology is employed in solving the dynamic equilibrium of the hull. The resistance, trim, and heave are then compared with the experimental data. The resistance is found to be predicted well and the dynamic equilibrium solved by the numerical method is deemed to be acceptable. This means that computational fluid dynamics will be very useful in further study on the complex flow around stepped hull and its potential usage in the design phase.

Keywords: planing hulls, stepped hulls, wake shape, numerical simulation, hydrodynamics

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1284 Reconsidering the Palaeo-Environmental Reconstruction of the Wet Zone of Sri Lanka: A Zooarchaeological Perspective

Authors: Kelum N. Manamendra-Arachchi, Kalangi Rodrigo

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Bones, teeth, and shells have been acknowledged over the last two centuries as evidence of chronology, Palaeo-environment, and human activity. Faunal traces are valid evidence of past situations because they have properties that have not changed over long periods of time. Sri Lanka has been known as an Island, which has a diverse variation of prehistoric occupation among ecological zones. Defining the Paleoecology of the past societies has been an archaeological thought developed in the 1960s. It is mainly concerned with the reconstruction from available geological and biological evidence of past biota, populations, communities, landscapes, environments, and ecosystems. Sri Lanka has dealt with this subject and considerable research has been already undertaken. The fossil and material record of Sri Lanka’s Wet Zone tropical forests continues from c. 38,000–34,000 ybp. This early and persistent human fossil, technical, and cultural florescence, as well as a collection of well-preserved tropical-forest rock shelters with associated ' on-site ' Palaeoenvironmental records, makes Sri Lanka a central and unusual case study to determine the extent and strength of early human tropical forest encounters. Excavations carried out in prehistoric caves in the low country wet zone has shown that in the last 50,000 years, the temperature in the lowland rainforests has not exceeded 5 degrees. Based on Semnopithecus Priam (Gray Langur) remains unearned from wet zone prehistoric caves, it has been argued that periods of momentous climate changes during the LGM and Terminal Pleistocene/Early Holocene boundary, with a recognizable preference for semi-open ‘Intermediate’ rainforest or edges. Continuous Genus Acavus and Oligospira occupation along with uninterrupted horizontal pervasive of Canarium sp. (‘kekuna’ nut) have proven that temperatures in the lowland rain forests have not changed by at least 5 oC over the last 50,000 years. Site Catchment or Territorial analysis cannot be no longer defensible, due to time-distance based factors as well as optimal foraging theory failed as a consequences of prehistoric people were aware of the decrease in cost-benefit ratio and located sites, and generally played out a settlement strategy that minimized the ratio of energy expanded to energy produced.

Keywords: palaeo-environment, prehistory, palaeo-ecology, zooarchaeology

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1283 Construction of Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Index through Global Sensitivity Analysis of Radiative Transfer Model

Authors: Guanhua Zhou, Zhongqi Ma

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Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in wetlands can absorb nitrogen and phosphorus effectively to prevent the eutrophication of water. It is feasible to monitor the distribution of SAV through remote sensing, but for the reason of weak vegetation signals affected by water body, traditional terrestrial vegetation indices are not applicable. This paper aims at constructing SAV index to enhance the vegetation signals and distinguish SAV from water body. The methodology is as follows: (1) select the bands sensitive to the vegetation parameters based on global sensitivity analysis of SAV canopy radiative transfer model; (2) take the soil line concept as reference, analyze the distribution of SAV and water reflectance simulated by SAV canopy model and semi-analytical water model in the two-dimensional space built by different sensitive bands; (3)select the band combinations which have better separation performance between SAV and water, and use them to build the SAVI indices in the form of normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI); (4)analyze the sensitivity of indices to the water and vegetation parameters, choose the one more sensitive to vegetation parameters. It is proved that index formed of the bands with central wavelengths in 705nm and 842nm has high sensitivity to chlorophyll content in leaves while it is less affected by water constituents. The model simulation shows a general negative, little correlation of SAV index with increasing water depth. Moreover, the index enhances capabilities in separating SAV from water compared to NDVI. The SAV index is expected to have potential in parameter inversion of wetland remote sensing.

Keywords: global sensitivity analysis, radiative transfer model, submerged aquatic vegetation, vegetation indices

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1282 Modelling and Simulation Efforts in Scale-Up and Characterization of Semi-Solid Dosage Forms

Authors: Saurav S. Rath, Birendra K. David

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Generic pharmaceutical industry has to operate in strict timelines of product development and scale-up from lab to plant. Hence, detailed product & process understanding and implementation of appropriate mechanistic modelling and Quality-by-design (QbD) approaches are imperative in the product life cycle. This work provides example cases of such efforts in topical dosage products. Topical products are typically in the form of emulsions, gels, thick suspensions or even simple solutions. The efficacy of such products is determined by characteristics like rheology and morphology. Defining, and scaling up the right manufacturing process with a given set of ingredients, to achieve the right product characteristics presents as a challenge to the process engineer. For example, the non-Newtonian rheology varies not only with CPPs and CMAs but also is an implicit function of globule size (CQA). Hence, this calls for various mechanistic models, to help predict the product behaviour. This paper focusses on such models obtained from computational fluid dynamics (CFD) coupled with population balance modelling (PBM) and constitutive models (like shear, energy density). In a special case of the use of high shear homogenisers (HSHs) for the manufacture of thick emulsions/gels, this work presents some findings on (i) scale-up algorithm for HSH using shear strain, a novel scale-up parameter for estimating mixing parameters, (ii) non-linear relationship between viscosity and shear imparted into the system, (iii) effect of hold time on rheology of product. Specific examples of how this approach enabled scale-up across 1L, 10L, 200L, 500L and 1000L scales will be discussed.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, morphology, quality-by-design, rheology

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1281 A Stochastic Diffusion Process Based on the Two-Parameters Weibull Density Function

Authors: Meriem Bahij, Ahmed Nafidi, Boujemâa Achchab, Sílvio M. A. Gama, José A. O. Matos

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Stochastic modeling concerns the use of probability to model real-world situations in which uncertainty is present. Therefore, the purpose of stochastic modeling is to estimate the probability of outcomes within a forecast, i.e. to be able to predict what conditions or decisions might happen under different situations. In the present study, we present a model of a stochastic diffusion process based on the bi-Weibull distribution function (its trend is proportional to the bi-Weibull probability density function). In general, the Weibull distribution has the ability to assume the characteristics of many different types of distributions. This has made it very popular among engineers and quality practitioners, who have considered it the most commonly used distribution for studying problems such as modeling reliability data, accelerated life testing, and maintainability modeling and analysis. In this work, we start by obtaining the probabilistic characteristics of this model, as the explicit expression of the process, its trends, and its distribution by transforming the diffusion process in a Wiener process as shown in the Ricciaardi theorem. Then, we develop the statistical inference of this model using the maximum likelihood methodology. Finally, we analyse with simulated data the computational problems associated with the parameters, an issue of great importance in its application to real data with the use of the convergence analysis methods. Overall, the use of a stochastic model reflects only a pragmatic decision on the part of the modeler. According to the data that is available and the universe of models known to the modeler, this model represents the best currently available description of the phenomenon under consideration.

Keywords: diffusion process, discrete sampling, likelihood estimation method, simulation, stochastic diffusion process, trends functions, bi-parameters weibull density function

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1280 Intensive Multidisciplinary Feeding Intervention for a Toddler with In-Utero Drug Exposure

Authors: Leandra Prempeh, Emily Malugen

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Prenatal drug exposure can have a molecular impact on the hypothalamic and reward genes that regulate feeding behavior. This can impact feeding regulation, resulting in feeding difficulties and growth failure. This was potentially seen in “McKayla,” a 19- month old girl with a history of in-utero drug exposure, patent ductus arteriosus, and gastroesophageal reflux disease who presented for intensive day treatment feeding therapy. She was diagnosed with Avoidant Restrictive Food Intake Disorder, described as total food refusal and meeting 100% of her caloric needs from a gastrostomy tube. The primary goals during intensive feeding therapy were to increase her oral intake and decrease her reliance on supplementation with formula. Several behavioral antecedent manipulations were implemented to establish consistent responding and make progress towards treatment goals. This included multiple modified bolus placements (using underloaded and Nuk brush), reinforcement contingencies, and variety fading before stability was finally achieved. Following, increasing retention of bites then increasing volume and variety were goals targeted. From treatment onset to the last 3 days of treatment, McKayla's rate of rapid acceptance of bite presentations increased significantly from 33.33% to 93.13%, rapid swallowing went from 0.00% to 92.32%, and her percentage of inappropriate mealtime behavior and expels decreased from 58.33% and 100% to 2.31% and 7.68%, respectively. Overall, the treatment team successfully introduced and increased the bite size of 7 pureed foods, generalize the treatment to caregivers with high integrity, and began facilitating tube weaning. She was receiving about 33.42% of her needs by mouth at the time of discharge. Other nutritional concerns addressed during treatment included drinking a nutritionally complete drink out of an open cup and age appropriate growth. McKayla continued to have emesis almost daily, as was her baseline before starting treatment; however, the frequency during mealtime decreased. Overall, McKayla responded well to treatment. She had a very slow response to treatment and required a lot of antecedent manipulations to establish consistent responding. As the literature suggests, [drug]-exposed neonates, like McKayla, may be at increased risk for nutritional and growth challenges that may persist throughout development. This supports the need for longterm follow-up of infant growth.

Keywords: behavioral intervention, feeding problems, in-utero drug exposure, intensive multidisciplinary intervention

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1279 Intensity-Enhanced Super-Resolution Amplitude Apodization Effect on the Non-Spherical Near-Field Particle-Lenses

Authors: Liyang Yue, Bing Yan, James N. Monks, Rakesh Dhama, Zengbo Wang, Oleg V. Minin, Igor V. Minin

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A particle can function as a refractive lens to focus a plane wave, generating a narrow, high intensive, weak-diverging beam within a sub-wavelength volume, known as the ‘photonic jet’. Refractive index contrast (particle to background media) and scaling effect of the dielectric particle (relative-to-wavelength size) play key roles in photonic jet formation, rather than the shape of particle-lens. Waist (full width of half maximum, FWHM) of a photonic jet could be beyond the diffraction limit and smaller than the Airy disk, which defines the minimum distance between two objects to be imaged as two instead of one. Many important applications for imaging and sensing have been afforded based upon the super-resolution characteristic of the photonic jet. It is known that apodization method, in the form of an amplitude pupil-mask centrally situated on a particle-lens, can further reduce the waist of a photonic nanojet, however, usually lower its intensity at the focus due to blocking of the incident light. In this paper, the anomalously intensity-enhanced apodization effect was discovered in the near-field via numerical simulation. It was also experimentally verified by a scale model using a copper-masked Teflon cuboid solid immersion lens (SIL) with 22 mm side length under radiation of a plane wave with 8 mm wavelength. Peak intensity enhancement and the lateral resolution of the produced photonic jet increased by about 36.0 % and 36.4 % in this approach, respectively. This phenomenon may possess the scale effect and would be valid in multiple frequency bands.

Keywords: apodization, particle-lens, scattering, near-field optics

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1278 Combustion Characteristics of Ionized Fuels for Battery System Safety

Authors: Hyeuk Ju Ko, Eui Ju Lee

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Many electronic devices are powered by various rechargeable batteries such as lithium-ion today, but occasionally the batteries undergo thermal runaway and cause fire, explosion, and other hazards. If a battery fire should occur in an electronic device of vehicle and aircraft cabin, it is important to quickly extinguish the fire and cool the batteries to minimize safety risks. Attempts to minimize these risks have been carried out by many researchers but the number of study on the successful extinguishment is limited. Because most rechargeable batteries are operated on the ion state with electron during charge and discharge of electricity, and the reaction of this electrolyte has a big difference with normal combustion. Here, we focused on the effect of ions on reaction stability and pollutant emissions during combustion process. The other importance for understanding ionized fuel combustion could be found in high efficient and environment-friendly combustion technologies, which are used to be operated an extreme condition and hence results in unintended flame instability such as extinction and oscillation. The use of electromagnetic energy and non-equilibrium plasma is one of the way to solve the problems, but the application has been still limited because of lack of excited ion effects in the combustion process. Therefore, the understanding of ion role during combustion might be promised to the energy safety society including the battery safety. In this study, the effects of an ionized fuel on the flame stability and pollutant emissions were experimentally investigated in the hydrocarbon jet diffusion flames. The burner used in this experiment consisted of 7.5 mm diameter tube for fuel and the gaseous fuels were ionized with the ionizer (SUNJE, SPN-11). Methane (99.9% purity) and propane (commercial grade) were used as a fuel and open ambient air was used as an oxidizer. As the performance of ionizer used in the experiment was evaluated at first, ion densities of both propane and methane increased linearly with volume flow rate but the ion density of propane is slightly higher than that of methane. The results show that the overall flame stability and shape such as flame length has no significant difference even in the higher ion concentration. However, the fuel ionization affects to the pollutant emissions such as NOx and soot. NOx and CO emissions measured in post flame region decreased with increasing fuel ionization, especially at high fuel velocity, i.e. high ion density. TGA analysis and morphology of soot by TEM indicates that the fuel ionization makes soot to be matured.

Keywords: battery fires, ionization, jet flames, stability, NOx and soot

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1277 'Sex, Work and Sex-Work': The Clandestine Tale of a Tabooed Industry in Bangladesh

Authors: Parvez Sattar

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There are around 150,000 female sex workers in Bangladesh, and the country hosts one of the largest brothels in the world. There are 20 brothel-villages in the country, of which 14 are recognized to be ‘official’, and at least 11 are currently operational. Although the national Constitution adopts a preventive policy against prostitution, law does not, as such, prohibit commercial sex work by an adult woman working in a brothel having made an affidavit in this regard. But, at the same time, the law renders at least some forms of floating and hotel based sex work illegal, while sex between males has been termed as sodomy and made culpable offence even on its own. All forms of sex works by MSM and Hijra are thus branded as criminal acts. Observations and findings drawn in this article are based on both primary and secondary sources collecting data from a series of field-based empirical studies conducted by the author through questionnaire survey, FGDs, key informant consultations and other PRA/PLA tools. General and specific conclusions have been based on analysis guided by international standards of human and labour rights approaches. It has been noted that neither the community attitudes nor the cultural mind-sets, or the State's institutional set up is supportive of the causes of sex workers engaged in the most exploitative forms of labour. Lack of respect for fundamental rights continues to diminish any chances of sex workers' reintegration to the mainstream of the society, perpetuates poverty, and increases their vulnerability to HIV/AIDS. To aggravate the scenario, the endemic practice of a complex debt-bondage masked by the so-called 'entry-cost' and ‘legal license’ to the industry is considered to be a somewhat accepted 'open secret' and that the police and administration keep their eyes off from such practices treating these as 'their internal affairs'. Often these practices are used by the Sardarni/Khala (landlady) and other 'managing' actors as the tool for further exploitation of the sex workers as well as a 'control strategy'. The paper concludes with the observation that the tabooed truths of commercial sex and sex workers are inherently embedded in the very factors that compel them into this endemically ostracised profession itself. While denial of both recognition and enjoyment of the fundamental human rights of sex workers is widespread, it is the same cycle of social vulnerability and economic exclusion that often confines these people within a continuous process of servitude and modern day slavery.

Keywords: commercial sex work and human rights, Labor protection in sex industry, Prostitution Law in Bangladesh, Sex work as modern day slavery

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1276 A Study of the Relationship among the Hotel Staff's Work Stress, Perceived Organizational Support, and Work Efficacy: A Case Study of Macao

Authors: Zhang Tao, Si Tang, Zhang Yufeng, Jin Jiahua

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Work pressure is an emerging research of organizational behavior. Many factors associated with this study also attracted the interest of scholars. Macao is surrounding by open micro-capitalist economy which has a high internationalization level and Mature operation system. And there is no doubt that tourism and hotel service industry is the pillar of the Macao economy with the developing of the mainland individual tourist visa. More and more cities are willing to inclusive culture diversity which lead to the amount of inbound tourists present high-speed up trend cause the hotel industry has a strong customer base and development space. At the same time, the hotel staff is an important role in the service. However, affected by some adverse factors, the hotel staff face a variety of pressures. This study combs the concept and theory of pressures relevant influencing factors and puts forward the purpose of this research. The focus of this study will be organizational supported by work efficiency and work pressure, using qualitative and quantitative research methods. Through questionnaires and interviews, 10 hotels in Macao were selected and 500 questionnaires were distributed to the employees. Statistical analysis software SPSS was used for descriptive statistics. By exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis, effect. And the relevant practitioners on behalf of the interview content analysis. The innovation of this research lies in the empirical study of the relationship between the working pressure, organizational support and working efficiency of Macau hotel practitioners, and constructs and validates the structural model of the relationship among them. This model will be helpful for people to use more research methods to study hotel practitioners pressure in the future. At the same time, we can draw the following conclusions: 1. There is a significant negative correlation between salary level and job stress; 2. There is a significant negative correlation between job stress and performance; 3. Different organizational support can interfere the relationship between job stress and performance; 4. Put forward the strategy of relevance adjustment, which provides a reference value for the hotel industry in human resource management. It would be helpful to improve their service standard by training their practitioners more scientifically and rationally.

Keywords: Macau, perceived organizational support, work stress, work efficiency

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1275 The People's Tribunal: Empowerment by Survivors for Survivors of Child Abuse

Authors: Alan Collins

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This study explains how The People’s Tribunal empowered survivors of child abuse. It examines how People’s tribunals can be effective mean of empowerment; the challenges of empowerment – expectation v. reality; the findings and how they reflect other inquiry findings; and the importance of listening and learning from survivors. UKCSAPT “The People’s Tribunal” was established by survivors of child sex abuse and members of civil society to investigate historic cases of institutional sex abuse. The independent inquiry, led by a panel of four judges, listened to evidence spanning four decades from survivors and experts. A common theme throughout these accounts showed that a series of institutional failures prevented abuse from being reported; and that there are clear links between children being rendered vulnerable by these failures and predatory abuse on an organised scale. It made a series of recommendations including the establishment of a permanent and open forum for victims to share experiences and give evidence, better links between mental health services and police investigations, and training for police and judiciary professionals on the effects of undisclosed sexual abuse. The main findings of the UKCSAPT report were:-There are clear links between children rendered vulnerable by institutional failures and predatory abuse on an organised scale, even if these links often remain obscure. -UK governmental institutions have failed to provide survivors with meaningful opportunities for either healing or justice. -The vital mental health needs of survivors are not being met and this undermines both their psychological recovery and access to justice. -Police and other authorities often lack the training to understand the complex reasons for the inability of survivors to immediately disclose a history of abuse. -Without far-reaching changes in institutional culture and practices, the sexual abuse of children will continue to be a significant scourge in the UK. The report also outlined a series of recommendations for improving reporting and mental health provision, and access to justice for victims were made, including: -A permanent, government-funded popular tribunal should be established to enable survivors to come forward and tell their stories. -Survivors giving evidence should be assigned an advocate to assist their access to justice. -Mental health services should be linked to police investigations to help victims disclose abuse. -Victims who fear reprisals should be provided with a channel though which to give evidence anonymously.

Keywords: empowerment, survivors, sexual, abuse

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1274 Quality-Of-Service-Aware Green Bandwidth Allocation in Ethernet Passive Optical Network

Authors: Tzu-Yang Lin, Chuan-Ching Sue

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Sleep mechanisms are commonly used to ensure the energy efficiency of each optical network unit (ONU) that concerns a single class delay constraint in the Ethernet Passive Optical Network (EPON). How long the ONUs can sleep without violating the delay constraint has become a research problem. Particularly, we can derive an analytical model to determine the optimal sleep time of ONUs in every cycle without violating the maximum class delay constraint. The bandwidth allocation considering such optimal sleep time is called Green Bandwidth Allocation (GBA). Although the GBA mechanism guarantees that the different class delay constraints do not violate the maximum class delay constraint, packets with a more relaxed delay constraint will be treated as those with the most stringent delay constraint and may be sent early. This means that the ONU will waste energy in active mode to send packets in advance which did not need to be sent at the current time. Accordingly, we proposed a QoS-aware GBA using a novel intra-ONU scheduling to control the packets to be sent according to their respective delay constraints, thereby enhancing energy efficiency without deteriorating delay performance. If packets are not explicitly classified but with different packet delay constraints, we can modify the intra-ONU scheduling to classify packets according to their packet delay constraints rather than their classes. Moreover, we propose the switchable ONU architecture in which the ONU can switch the architecture according to the sleep time length, thus improving energy efficiency in the QoS-aware GBA. The simulation results show that the QoS-aware GBA ensures that packets in different classes or with different delay constraints do not violate their respective delay constraints and consume less power than the original GBA.

Keywords: Passive Optical Networks, PONs, Optical Network Unit, ONU, energy efficiency, delay constraint

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1273 Numerical Simulations of Fire in Typical Air Conditioned Railway Coach

Authors: Manoj Sarda, Abhishek Agarwal, Juhi Kaushik, Vatsal Sanjay, Arup Kumar Das

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Railways in India remain primary mode of transport having one of the largest networks in the world and catering to billions of transits yearly. Catastrophic economic damage and loss to life is encountered over the past few decades due to fire to locomotives. Study of fire dynamics and fire propagation plays an important role in evacuation planning and reducing losses. Simulation based study of propagation of fire and soot inside an air conditioned coach of Indian locomotive is done in this paper. Finite difference based solver, Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS) version 6 has been used for analysis. A single air conditioned 3 tier coupe closed to ambient surroundings by glass windows having occupancy for 8 people is the basic unit of the domain. A system of three such coupes combined is taken to be fundamental unit for the entire study to resemble effect to an entire coach. Analysis of flame and soot contours and concentrations is done corresponding to variations in heat release rate per unit volume (HRRPUA) of fire source, variations in conditioned air velocity being circulated inside coupes by vents and an alternate fire initiation and propagation mechanism via ducts. Quantitative results of fractional area in top and front view of the three coupes under fire and smoke are obtained using MATLAB (IMT). Present simulations and its findings will be useful for organizations like Commission of Railway Safety and others in designing and implementing safety and evacuation measures.

Keywords: air conditioned coaches, fire propagation, flame contour, soot flow, train fire

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1272 Seismic Loss Assessment for Peruvian University Buildings with Simulated Fragility Functions

Authors: Jose Ruiz, Jose Velasquez, Holger Lovon

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Peruvian university buildings are critical structures for which very little research about its seismic vulnerability is available. This paper develops a probabilistic methodology that predicts seismic loss for university buildings with simulated fragility functions. Two university buildings located in the city of Cusco were analyzed. Fragility functions were developed considering seismic and structural parameters uncertainty. The fragility functions were generated with the Latin Hypercube technique, an improved Montecarlo-based method, which optimizes the sampling of structural parameters and provides at least 100 reliable samples for every level of seismic demand. Concrete compressive strength, maximum concrete strain and yield stress of the reinforcing steel were considered as the key structural parameters. The seismic demand is defined by synthetic records which are compatible with the elastic Peruvian design spectrum. Acceleration records are scaled based on the peak ground acceleration on rigid soil (PGA) which goes from 0.05g to 1.00g. A total of 2000 structural models were considered to account for both structural and seismic variability. These functions represent the overall building behavior because they give rational information regarding damage ratios for defined levels of seismic demand. The university buildings show an expected Mean Damage Factor of 8.80% and 19.05%, respectively, for the 0.22g-PGA scenario, which was amplified by the soil type coefficient and resulted in 0.26g-PGA. These ratios were computed considering a seismic demand related to 10% of probability of exceedance in 50 years which is a requirement in the Peruvian seismic code. These results show an acceptable seismic performance for both buildings.

Keywords: fragility functions, university buildings, loss assessment, Montecarlo simulation, latin hypercube

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1271 Dialectic Relationship between Urban Pattern Structural Methods and Construction Materials in Traditional Settlements

Authors: Sawsan Domi

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Identifying urban patterns of traditional settlements perfumed in various ways. One of them through the three-dimensional ‘reading’ of the urban web: the density of structures, the construction materials and the colors used. Objectives of this study are to paraphrase and understand the relation between the formation of the traditional settlements and the shape and structure of their structural method. In the beginning, the study considered the components of the historical neighborhood, which reflected the social and economical effects in the urban planning pattern. Then, by analyzing the main components of the old neighborhood which included: analysis of urban patterns & streets systems, analysis of traditional architectural elements and the construction materials and their usage. ‘’Hamasa’’ Neighborhood in ‘’Al Buraimi’’ Governorate is considered as one of the most important archaeological sites in the Sultanate of Oman. The vivid features of this archaeological site are the living witness to the genius of the Omani person and his unique architecture. ‘’Hamasa’’ Neighborhood is also considered as the oldest human settlement at ‘’Al Buraimi’’ Governorate. It used to be the gathering area for Arab and Omani tribes who are coming from other governorates of Oman. In this old settlement, local characters were created to meet the climate problems and the social, religious requirements of the life. Traditional buildings were built of materials that were available in the surround environment and within hand reach. The Historical component was containing four main separate neighborhoods. The morphological structure of ‘’Hamasa’’ was characterized by a continuous and densely built-up pattern, featuring close interdependence between the spatial and functional pattern. The streets linked the plots, the marketplace and the open areas. Consequently, the traditional fabric had narrow streets with one- and two- storey houses. The material used in building facilities at ‘’Hamasa’' historical are from the traditionally used materials. These materials were cleverly used in building of local facilities. Most of these materials are locally made and formed, and used by the locals. ‘’Hamasa’’ neighborhood is an example of analyzing the urban patterns and geometrical features. The old ‘’ Hamasa’’ retains the patterns of its old settlements. Urban patterns were defined by both forms and structure. The traditional architecture of ‘’Hamasa’’ neighborhood has evolved as a direct result of its climatic conditions. The study figures out that the neighborhood characterized by the used construction materials, the scope of the residential structures and by the streets system. All formed the urban pattern of the settlement.

Keywords: urban pattern, construction materials, neighborhood, architectural elements, historical

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1270 Benzene Sulfonamide Derivatives: Synthesis, Absorption, Distribution, Metabolism, and Excretion (ADME) Studies, Anti-proliferative Activity, and Docking Simulation with Theoretical Investigation

Authors: Asmaa M. Fahim

Abstract:

In this elucidation, we synthesized different heterocyclic compounds attached to Benzene sulfonamide moiety via (E)-N-(4-(3-(4-bromophenyl)acryloyl)phenyl)-4-methyl benzene sulfonamide which is obtained from Nucleophilic substitution reaction between 4-methylbenzene sulfonyl chloride and 1-(4-aminophenyl)ethan-1-one in pyridine to get N-(4-acetyl phenyl)-4-methyl benzenesulfonamide which reacted 4-bromobenzal dehyde undergoes aldol condensation in NaOH to afford the corresponding chalchone 4. Moreover, the reactivity of chalchone 4 showed several active methylene derivatives utilized the pressurized microwave irradiation as a green energy resource. Chalcone 4 was allowed to react with ethyl cyanoacetate and acetylacetone, respectively, at 70 °C with pressure under microwave reaction condition to afford the 5-cyano-6-oxo-1,2,5,6-tetrahydropyridin-2-yl)-4-methylbenzenesulfonamide 6 and N-(4'-acetyl-4''-bromo-5'-oxo-2',3',4',5'-tetrahydro-[1,1':3',1''-terphenyl]-4-yl)-4-methylbenzenesulfonamide 8 derivatives. Moreover, the reactivity of this sulphonamide chalchone with NH2NH2 in EtOH and acetic acid, which gave 2,5-dihydro-1H-imidazol-4-yl)-4-methyl benzenesulfonamide, 1H-pyrazol-3-yl)-4-methyl and reactivity with NH2OH.HCl gave isoxazol-3-yl)-4-methylbenzenesulfonamide derivatives. The synthesized compounds were screened for their ADME properties and directed to antitumor activity on HepG2 hepatocellular carcinoma and MCF-7 breast cancer and exhibited excellent behavior against standard drugs; these results were confirmed through molecular simulations with different proteins. Additionally, the Density Functional Theory analysis of optimized structures investigated their physical descriptors, FMO, ESP and MEP, which correlated with biological evaluation.

Keywords: synthesis, green chemistry, antitumor activity, DFT study

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1269 Design, Synthesis and Evaluation of 4-(Phenylsulfonamido)Benzamide Derivatives as Selective Butyrylcholinesterase Inhibitors

Authors: Sushil Kumar Singh, Ashok Kumar, Ankit Ganeshpurkar, Ravi Singh, Devendra Kumar

Abstract:

In spectrum of neurodegenerative diseases, Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is characterized by the presence of amyloid β plaques and neurofibrillary tangles in the brain. It results in cognitive and memory impairment due to loss of cholinergic neurons, which is considered to be one of the contributing factors. Donepezil, an acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibitor which also inhibits butyrylcholinesterase (BuChE) and improves the memory and brain’s cognitive functions, is the most successful and prescribed drug to treat the symptoms of AD. The present work is based on designing of the selective BuChE inhibitors using computational techniques. In this work, machine learning models were trained using classification algorithms followed by screening of diverse chemical library of compounds. The various molecular modelling and simulation techniques were used to obtain the virtual hits. The amide derivatives of 4-(phenylsulfonamido) benzoic acid were synthesized and characterized using 1H & 13C NMR, FTIR and mass spectrometry. The enzyme inhibition assays were performed on equine plasma BuChE and electric eel’s AChE by method developed by Ellman et al. Compounds 31, 34, 37, 42, 49, 52 and 54 were found to be active against equine BuChE. N-(2-chlorophenyl)-4-(phenylsulfonamido)benzamide and N-(2-bromophenyl)-4-(phenylsulfonamido)benzamide (compounds 34 and 37) displayed IC50 of 61.32 ± 7.21 and 42.64 ± 2.17 nM against equine plasma BuChE. Ortho-substituted derivatives were more active against BuChE. Further, the ortho-halogen and ortho-alkyl substituted derivatives were found to be most active among all with minimal AChE inhibition. The compounds were selective toward BuChE.

Keywords: Alzheimer disease, butyrylcholinesterase, machine learning, sulfonamides

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1268 "IS Cybernetics": An Idea to Base the International System Theory upon the General System Theory and Cybernetics

Authors: Petra Suchovska

Abstract:

The spirit of post-modernity remains chaotic and obscure. Geopolitical rivalries raging at the more extreme levels and the ability of intellectual community to explain the entropy of global affairs has been diminishing. The Western-led idea of globalisation imposed upon the world does not seem to bring the bright future for human progress anymore, and its architects lose much of global control, as the strong non-western cultural entities develop new forms of post-modern establishments. The overall growing cultural misunderstanding and mistrust are expressions of political impotence to deal with the inner contradictions within the contemporary phenomenon (capitalism, economic globalisation) that embrace global society. The drivers and effects of global restructuring must be understood in the context of systems and principles reflecting on true complexity of society. The purpose of this paper is to set out some ideas about how cybernetics can contribute to understanding international system structure and analyse possible world futures. “IS Cybernetics” would apply to system thinking and cybernetic principles in IR in order to analyse and handle the complexity of social phenomena from global perspective. “IS cybernetics” would be, for now, the subfield of IR, concerned with applying theories and methodologies from cybernetics and system sciences by offering concepts and tools for addressing problems holistically. It would bring order to the complex relations between disciplines that IR touches upon. One of its tasks would be to map, measure, tackle and find the principles of dynamics and structure of social forces that influence human behaviour and consequently cause political, technological and economic structural reordering, forming and reforming the international system. “IS cyberneticists” task would be to understand the control mechanisms that govern the operation of international society (and the sub-systems in their interconnection) and only then suggest better ways operate these mechanisms on sublevels as cultural, political, technological, religious and other. “IS cybernetics” would also strive to capture the mechanism of social-structural changes in time, which would open space for syntheses between IR and historical sociology. With the cybernetic distinction between first order studies of observed systems and the second order study of observing systems, IS cybernetics would also provide a unifying epistemological and methodological, conceptual framework for multilateralism and multiple modernities theory.

Keywords: cybernetics, historical sociology, international system, systems theory

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1267 Numerical Investigation of Pressure Drop in Core Annular Horizontal Pipe Flow

Authors: John Abish, Bibin John

Abstract:

Liquid-liquid flow in horizontal pipe is investigated in order to reveal the flow patterns arising from the co-existed flow of oil and water. The main focus of the study is to identify the feasibility of reducing the pumping power requirements of petroleum transportation lines by having an annular flow of water around the thick oil core. This idea makes oil transportation cheaper and easier. The present study uses computational fluid dynamics techniques to model oil-water flows with liquids of similar density and varying viscosity. The simulation of the flow is conducted using commercial package Ansys Fluent. Flow domain modeling and grid generation accomplished through ICEM CFD. The horizontal pipe is modeled with two different inlets and meshed with O-Grid mesh. The standard k-ε turbulence scheme along with the volume of fluid (VOF) multiphase modeling method is used to simulate the oil-water flow. Transient flow simulations carried out for a total period of 30s showed significant reduction in pressure drop while employing core annular flow concept. This study also reveals the effect of viscosity ratio, mass flow rates of individual fluids and ration of superficial velocities on the pressure drop across the pipe length. Contours of velocity and volume fractions are employed along with pressure predictions to assess the effectiveness of this proposed concept quantitatively as well as qualitatively. The outcome of the present study is found to be very relevant for the petrochemical industries.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, core-annular flows, frictional flow resistance, oil transportation, pressure drop

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1266 Pomegranates Attenuates Cognitive and Behavioural Deficts and reduces inflammation in a Transgenic Mice Model of Alzheimer's Disease

Authors: M. M. Essa, S. Subash, M. Akbar, S. Al-Adawi, A. Al-Asmi, G. J. Guillemein

Abstract:

Objective: Transgenic (tg) mice which contain an amyloid precursor protein (APP) gene mutation, develop extracellular amyloid beta (Aβ) deposition in the brain, and severe memory and behavioural deficits with age. These mice serve as an important animal model for testing the efficacy of novel drug candidates for the treatment and management of symptoms of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Several reports have suggested that oxidative stress is the underlying cause of Aβ neurotoxicity in AD. Pomegranates contain very high levels of antioxidants and several medicinal properties that may be useful for improving the quality of life in AD patients. In this study, we investigated the effect of dietary supplementation of Omani pomegranate extract on the memory, anxiety and learning skills along with inflammation in an AD mouse model containing the double Swedish APP mutation (APPsw/Tg2576). Methods: The experimental groups of APP-transgenic mice from the age of 4 months were fed custom-mix diets (pellets) containing 4% pomegranate. We assessed spatial memory and learning ability, psychomotor coordination, and anxiety-related behavior in Tg and wild-type mice at the age of 4-5 months and 18-19 months using the Morris water maze test, rota rod test, elevated plus maze test, and open field test. Further, inflammatory parameters also analysed. Results: APPsw/Tg2576 mice that were fed a standard chow diet without pomegranates showed significant memory deficits, increased anxiety-related behavior, and severe impairment in spatial learning ability, position discrimination learning ability and motor coordination along with increased inflammation compared to the wild type mice on the same diet, at the age of 18-19 months In contrast, APPsw/Tg2576 mice that were fed a diet containing 4% pomegranates showed a significant improvements in memory, learning, locomotor function, and anxiety with reduced inflammatory markers compared to APPsw/Tg2576 mice fed the standard chow diet. Conclusion: Our results suggest that dietary supplementation with pomegranates may slow the progression of cognitive and behavioural impairments in AD. The exact mechanism is still unclear and further extensive research needed.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, pomegranates, oman, cognitive decline, memory loss, anxiety, inflammation

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1265 Analyzing the Ergonomic Design of Manual Material Handling in Chemical Industry: Case Study of Activity Task Weigh Liquid Catalyst to the Container Storage

Authors: Yayan Harry Yadi, L. Meily Kurniawidjaja

Abstract:

Work activities for MMH (Manual Material Handling) in the storage of liquid catalyst raw material workstations in chemical industries identify high-risk MSDs (Musculoskeletal Disorders). Their work is often performed frequently requires an awkward body posture, twisting, bending because of physical space limited, cold, slippery, and limited tools for transfer container and weighing the liquid chemistry of the catalyst into the container. This study aims to develop an ergonomic work system design on the transfer and weighing process of liquid catalyst raw materials at the storage warehouse. A triangulation method through an interview, observation, and detail study team with assessing the level of risk work posture and complaints. Work postures were analyzed using the RULA method, through the support of CATIA software. The study concludes that ergonomic design can make reduce 3 levels of risk scores awkward posture. CATIA Software simulation provided a comprehensive solution for a better posture of manual material handling at task weigh. An addition of manual material handling tools such as adjustable conveyors, trolley and modification tools semi-mechanical weighing with techniques based on rule ergonomic design can reduce the hazard of chemical fluid spills.

Keywords: ergonomic design, MSDs, CATIA software, RULA, chemical industry

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1264 Fracture Toughness Characterizations of Single Edge Notch (SENB) Testing Using DIC System

Authors: Amr Mohamadien, Ali Imanpour, Sylvester Agbo, Nader Yoosef-Ghodsi, Samer Adeeb

Abstract:

The fracture toughness resistance curve (e.g., J-R curve and crack tip opening displacement (CTOD) or δ-R curve) is important in facilitating strain-based design and integrity assessment of oil and gas pipelines. This paper aims to present laboratory experimental data to characterize the fracture behavior of pipeline steel. The influential parameters associated with the fracture of API 5L X52 pipeline steel, including different initial crack sizes, were experimentally investigated for a single notch edge bend (SENB). A total of 9 small-scale specimens with different crack length to specimen depth ratios were conducted and tested using single edge notch bending (SENB). ASTM E1820 and BS7448 provide testing procedures to construct the fracture resistance curve (Load-CTOD, CTOD-R, or J-R) from test results. However, these procedures are limited by standard specimens’ dimensions, displacement gauges, and calibration curves. To overcome these limitations, this paper presents the use of small-scale specimens and a 3D-digital image correlation (DIC) system to extract the parameters required for fracture toughness estimation. Fracture resistance curve parameters in terms of crack mouth open displacement (CMOD), crack tip opening displacement (CTOD), and crack growth length (∆a) were carried out from test results by utilizing the DIC system, and an improved regression fitting resistance function (CTOD Vs. crack growth), or (J-integral Vs. crack growth) that is dependent on a variety of initial crack sizes was constructed and presented. The obtained results were compared to the available results of the classical physical measurement techniques, and acceptable matchings were observed. Moreover, a case study was implemented to estimate the maximum strain value that initiates the stable crack growth. This might be of interest to developing more accurate strain-based damage models. The results of laboratory testing in this study offer a valuable database to develop and validate damage models that are able to predict crack propagation of pipeline steel, accounting for the influential parameters associated with fracture toughness.

Keywords: fracture toughness, crack propagation in pipeline steels, CTOD-R, strain-based damage model

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1263 Association of Vulnerability and Behavioural Outcomes of FSWs Linked with TI Prevention HIV Program: An Evidence from Cross-Sectional Behavioural Study in Thane District of Maharashtra

Authors: Jayanta Bora, Sukhvinder Kaur, Ashok Agarwal, Sangeeta Kaul

Abstract:

Background: It is important for targeted interventions to consider vulnerabilities of female sex workers (FSWs) such as poverty, work-related mobility and literacy for effective human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention. This paper examines the association between vulnerability and behavioural outcomes among FSWs in Thane district, Maharashtra under USAID PHFI-PIPPSE project. Methods: Data were used from the Behavioural Tracking Survey, a cross-sectional behavioural study conducted in 2015 with 503 FSWs randomly selected from 12 TI-NGOs which were functioning and providing services to FSWs in Thane district prior to April 2014 in Thane district of Maharashtra. We have created the “vulnerability index”, a composite index of literacy, factors of dependence (alternative livelihood options, current debt), and aspects of sex work (mobility and duration in sex work) as a dependent variable. The key independent measures used were program exposure to intervention, service uptake, self-confidence, and self-identity. Bi-variate and multivariate logistic regressions were used to examine the study objectives. Results: A higher proportion of FSWs who were in the age-group 18–25 years from brothel/street /home/ lodge-based were categorized as highly vulnerable to HIV risk as compared to bar-based sex worker (74.1% versus 59.8%, P,0.002); regression analysis highlighted lower odds of vulnerability among FSWs who were aware of services and visited NGO clinic for medical check-up and counselling for STI [AOR= 0.092, 95% CI 0.018-0.460; P,0.004], However, lower odds of vulnerability on confident in supporting fellow sex worker in crisis [AOR= 0.601, 95% CI 0.476-0.758; P, 0.000] and were able to turn away clients when they refused to use a condom during sex [AOR= 0.524, 95% CI 0.342-0.802; P, 0.003]. Conclusion: The results highlight that FSWs associated with TIs and getting services are less vulnerable and highly empowered. As a result of behavioural change communication and other services provided by TIs, FSWs were able to successfully negotiate about condom use with their clients and manage solidarity in the crisis situation for fellow FSWs. Therefore, it is evident from study paper that TI prevention programs may transform the lives of masses considerably and may open a window of opportunity to infuse the information and awareness about HIV risk.

Keywords: female sex worker, HIV prevention, HIV service uptake, vulnerability

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1262 A Study for Area-level Mosquito Abundance Prediction by Using Supervised Machine Learning Point-level Predictor

Authors: Theoktisti Makridou, Konstantinos Tsaprailis, George Arvanitakis, Charalampos Kontoes

Abstract:

In the literature, the data-driven approaches for mosquito abundance prediction relaying on supervised machine learning models that get trained with historical in-situ measurements. The counterpart of this approach is once the model gets trained on pointlevel (specific x,y coordinates) measurements, the predictions of the model refer again to point-level. These point-level predictions reduce the applicability of those solutions once a lot of early warning and mitigation actions applications need predictions for an area level, such as a municipality, village, etc... In this study, we apply a data-driven predictive model, which relies on public-open satellite Earth Observation and geospatial data and gets trained with historical point-level in-Situ measurements of mosquito abundance. Then we propose a methodology to extract information from a point-level predictive model to a broader area-level prediction. Our methodology relies on the randomly spatial sampling of the area of interest (similar to the Poisson hardcore process), obtaining the EO and geomorphological information for each sample, doing the point-wise prediction for each sample, and aggregating the predictions to represent the average mosquito abundance of the area. We quantify the performance of the transformation from the pointlevel to the area-level predictions, and we analyze it in order to understand which parameters have a positive or negative impact on it. The goal of this study is to propose a methodology that predicts the mosquito abundance of a given area by relying on point-level prediction and to provide qualitative insights regarding the expected performance of the area-level prediction. We applied our methodology to historical data (of Culex pipiens) of two areas of interest (Veneto region of Italy and Central Macedonia of Greece). In both cases, the results were consistent. The mean mosquito abundance of a given area can be estimated with similar accuracy to the point-level predictor, sometimes even better. The density of the samples that we use to represent one area has a positive effect on the performance in contrast to the actual number of sampling points which is not informative at all regarding the performance without the size of the area. Additionally, we saw that the distance between the sampling points and the real in-situ measurements that were used for training did not strongly affect the performance.

Keywords: mosquito abundance, supervised machine learning, culex pipiens, spatial sampling, west nile virus, earth observation data

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1261 Injury Characteristics and Outcome of Road Traffic Accident among Victims at Adult Emergency Department of Tikur Anbesa Specialized Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Authors: Mohammed Seid, Aklilu Azazh, Fikre Enquselassie, Engida Yisma

Abstract:

Background: Road traffic injuries are the eighth leading cause of death globally, and the leading cause of death for young people. More than a million people die each year on the world’s roads, and the risk of dying as a result of a road traffic injury is highest in the Africa. Methods: A prospective hospital-based study was undertaken to assess injury characteristics and outcome of road traffic accident among victims at Adult Emergency Department of Tikur Anbesa specialized hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. A structured pre-tested questionnaire was used to gather the required data. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS version 16.0. Results: A total of 230 road traffic accident victims were studied. The majority of the study subjects were men 165 (71.7%) and the male/female ratio was 2.6:1. The victims’ ages ranged from 14 to 80 years with the mean and standard deviations of 32.15 and ± 14.38 years respectively. Daily laborers (95 (41.3%)) and students (28 (12.2%)) were the majority of road traffic accident victims. Long-distance travelling Minibus (16.5%) was responsible for the majority of road traffic crash followed by followed by Taxi (14.8%) and pedestrians (62.6%) accounted for the majority of road traffic accident. Head (50.4%) and musculoskeletal (extremities) (47.0%) were the most common body region injured. Fractures (78.0%) and open wounds (56.5%) were the most common type of injuries sustained. Treatment of fracture was the most common procedure performed in 57.7 % of the victims. The overall length of hospital stay (LOS) ranged from 1 day to 61 days with mean (± standard deviation) of 7.12 ± 10.5 days and the mortality rate was 7.4 %. A significant higher proportion of victims aged 14-55 years were had less likelihood of death compared to those victims aged more than 55 years of age [Adjusted OR = 0.1 (95% CI: 0.01, 0.82)]. Conclusions: This study showed diverse injury characteristics and high morbidity and mortality among the victims attending Adult Emergency Department of Tikur Anbesa specialized hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The findings reflect that road traffic accident is a major public health problem. Urgent road traffic accident preventive measures and prompt treatment of the victims are warranted in order to reduce morbidity and mortality among the victims.

Keywords: road traffic accident, injury characteristics, outcome, Tikur Anbesa specialized hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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1260 Competing Risks Modeling Using within Node Homogeneity Classification Tree

Authors: Kazeem Adesina Dauda, Waheed Babatunde Yahya

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To design a tree that maximizes within-node homogeneity, there is a need for a homogeneity measure that is appropriate for event history data with multiple risks. We consider the use of Deviance and Modified Cox-Snell residuals as a measure of impurity in Classification Regression Tree (CART) and compare our results with the results of Fiona (2008) in which homogeneity measures were based on Martingale Residual. Data structure approach was used to validate the performance of our proposed techniques via simulation and real life data. The results of univariate competing risk revealed that: using Deviance and Cox-Snell residuals as a response in within node homogeneity classification tree perform better than using other residuals irrespective of performance techniques. Bone marrow transplant data and double-blinded randomized clinical trial, conducted in other to compare two treatments for patients with prostate cancer were used to demonstrate the efficiency of our proposed method vis-à-vis the existing ones. Results from empirical studies of the bone marrow transplant data showed that the proposed model with Cox-Snell residual (Deviance=16.6498) performs better than both the Martingale residual (deviance=160.3592) and Deviance residual (Deviance=556.8822) in both event of interest and competing risks. Additionally, results from prostate cancer also reveal the performance of proposed model over the existing one in both causes, interestingly, Cox-Snell residual (MSE=0.01783563) outfit both the Martingale residual (MSE=0.1853148) and Deviance residual (MSE=0.8043366). Moreover, these results validate those obtained from the Monte-Carlo studies.

Keywords: within-node homogeneity, Martingale residual, modified Cox-Snell residual, classification and regression tree

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1259 Heat Sink Optimization for a High Power Wearable Thermoelectric Module

Authors: Zohreh Soleimani, Sally Salome Shahzad, Stamatis Zoras

Abstract:

As a result of current energy and environmental issues, the human body is known as one of the promising candidate for converting wasted heat to electricity (Seebeck effect). Thermoelectric generator (TEG) is one of the most prevalent means of harvesting body heat and converting that to eco-friendly electrical power. However, the uneven distribution of the body heat and its curvature geometry restrict harvesting adequate amount of energy. To perfectly transform the heat radiated by the body into power, the most direct solution is conforming the thermoelectric generators (TEG) with the arbitrary surface of the body and increase the temperature difference across the thermoelectric legs. Due to this, a computational survey through COMSOL Multiphysics is presented in this paper with the main focus on the impact of integrating a flexible wearable TEG with a corrugated shaped heat sink on the module power output. To eliminate external parameters (temperature, air flow, humidity), the simulations are conducted within indoor thermal level and when the wearer is stationary. The full thermoelectric characterization of the proposed TEG fabricated by a wavy shape heat sink has been computed leading to a maximum power output of 25µW/cm2 at a temperature gradient nearly 13°C. It is noteworthy that for the flexibility of the proposed TEG and heat sink, the applicability and efficiency of the module stay high even on the curved surfaces of the body. As a consequence, the results demonstrate the superiority of such a TEG to the most state of the art counterparts fabricated with no heat sink and offer a new train of thought for the development of self-sustained and unobtrusive wearable power suppliers which generate energy from low grade dissipated heat from the body.

Keywords: device simulation, flexible thermoelectric module, heat sink, human body heat

Procedia PDF Downloads 149