Search results for: transportation modeling software
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9238

Search results for: transportation modeling software

2518 Understanding Talent Management In French Small And Medium-Sized Enterprises: Towards Multi-Level Modeling

Authors: Abid Kousay

Abstract:

Appeared and developed essentially in large companies and multinationals, Talent Management (TM) in Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs) has remained an under-explored subject till today. Although the literature on TM in the Anglo-Saxon context is developing, it remains monopolized in non-European contexts, especially in France. Therefore, this article aims to address these shortcomings through contributing to TM issues by adopting a multilevel approach holding the goal of reaching a global holistic vision of interactions between various levels while applying TM. A qualitative research study carried out within 12 SMEs in France, built on the methodological perspective of grounded theory, will be used in order to go beyond description, to generate or discover a theory or even a unified theoretical explanation. Our theoretical contributions are the results of the grounded theory, the fruit of context considerations and the dynamic of the multilevel approach. We aim firstly to determine the perception of talent and TM in SMEs. Secondly, we formalize TM in SME through the empowerment of all 3 levels in the organization (individual, collective, and organizational). And we generate a multilevel dynamic system model, highlighting the institutionalization dimension in SMEs and the managerial conviction characterized by the domination of the leader’s role. Thirdly, this first study sheds light on the importance of rigorous implementation of TM in SMEs in France by directing CEO and HR and TM managers to focus on elements that upstream TM implementation and influence the system internally. Indeed, our systematic multilevel approach policy reminds them of the importance of strategic alignment while translating TM policy into strategies and practices in SMEs.

Keywords: French context, multilevel approach, talent management, , TM system

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2517 “It Takes a Community to Save a Child”: A Qualitative Analysis of Child Trafficking Interventions from Practitioner Perspectives

Authors: Crispin Rakibu Mbamba

Abstract:

Twenty-two years after the adoption of the United Nation Trafficking Protocol, evidence suggest that child trafficking continues to rise. Community level factors, like poverty which creates the conditions for children’s vulnerability is key to the rise in trafficking cases in Ghana. Albeit, growing evidence suggestthat despite the vulnerabilities, communities have the capacity to prevent and address child trafficking issues. This study contributes to this positive agenda by exploring the ways in which communities (and the key actors) in Ghana contribute to child trafficking interventions.The study objective is explored through in-depth interviews with practitioners (including social workers) from an organization working in trafficking hotspots in Ghana. Interviews wereanalyzed thematically with the help of HyperRESEARCH software. From the in-depth interviews, three themes were identified as the ways in which communities are involved in child trafficking interventions: 1) engagement of community leaders, 2) community-led anti-trafficking committees and 3) knowledge about trafficking. Albeit the cultural differences, evidence on the instrumental role of community chiefs and leaders provide important learning on how to harness trafficking intervention measures and ensure better child protection practices. Based on the findings, we recommend the need to intensify trafficking awareness campaigns in rural communities where education is lacking to contribute to United Nations (UN) promoting Just, Peaceful and Inclusive societies’ mandate.

Keywords: child trafficking, community interventions, knowledge on trafficking, human trafficking intervention

Procedia PDF Downloads 99
2516 Influence of Travel Time Reliability on Elderly Drivers Crash Severity

Authors: Ren Moses, Emmanuel Kidando, Eren Ozguven, Yassir Abdelrazig

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Although older drivers (defined as those of age 65 and above) are less involved with speeding, alcohol use as well as night driving, they are more vulnerable to severe crashes. The major contributing factors for severe crashes include frailty and medical complications. Several studies have evaluated the contributing factors on severity of crashes. However, few studies have established the impact of travel time reliability (TTR) on road safety. In particular, the impact of TTR on senior adults who face several challenges including hearing difficulties, decreasing of the processing skills and cognitive problems in driving is not well established. Therefore, this study focuses on determining possible impacts of TTR on the traffic safety with focus on elderly drivers. Historical travel speed data from freeway links in the study area were used to calculate travel time and the associated TTR metrics that is, planning time index, the buffer index, the standard deviation of the travel time and the probability of congestion. Four-year information on crashes occurring on these freeway links was acquired. The binary logit model estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling technique was used to evaluate variables that could be influencing elderly crash severity. Preliminary results of the analysis suggest that TTR is statistically significant in affecting the severity of a crash involving an elderly driver. The result suggests that one unit increase in the probability of congestion reduces the likelihood of the elderly severe crash by nearly 22%. These findings will enhance the understanding of TTR and its impact on the elderly crash severity.

Keywords: highway safety, travel time reliability, elderly drivers, traffic modeling

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2515 Impact of Climate Shifting-Change on Rural People and Agricultural Life

Authors: Arshad A. Narejo, M. Javed Sheikh, G. Mujtaba Khushk, Naeem A Qureshi, M. Ali Sheikh

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Climate change not only influences on agriculture activities but also has certain effects on daily human activities, as well as on overall human health. Keeping in view the significance and huge research gap on the issues, the researchers have found an opportunity to conduct a study in Sindh province of Pakistan, in which the issue of climate shifting/change regarding temperature and precipitation were discussed with the local farmers of district Hyderabad. The quantified perception was gathered on a reliable and valid scale from 200 respondents and was analyzed through SPSS and AMOS software. The result of this study revealed that the significant changes are being occurred in summer (r²=0.96; M=6.78) and winter seasons (r²=0.71; M=6.57), therefore it is leaving bad effects on human health (r²=0.96) and behavior of the local population (r²=0.70). In addition, the change in the cropping calendar, i.e., timing of sowing (r²=0.69; M=8.42) and harvesting (r²=0.79; M=8.27) of different crops have been altered due to changes in local weather patterns. Since the local farmers are also facing seed germination (r²=0.57; M=7.98) problems, it is therefore recommended that concerned authorities/departments should revise the agricultural calendar. Besides this, respondents were in opinion that actual summer starts even before the vacation and cold season starts when winter vacations ended. Thus, the government and other concerned departments should reconsider or reschedule the vacation regulation policy (r²=0.70) at least at the provincial level.

Keywords: climate, climate shifting/change, impact on daily life, impact on agricultural activities

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2514 Tectono-Thermal Evolution of Ningwu-Jingle Basin in North China Craton: Constraints from Apatite (U–Th-Sm)/He and Fission Track Thermochronology

Authors: Zhibin Lei, Minghui Yang

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Ningwu-Jingle basin is a structural syncline which has undergone a complex tectono-thermal history since Cretaceous. It stretches along the strike of the northern Lvliang Mountains which are the most important mountains in the middle and west of North China Craton. The Mesozoic units make up of the core of Ningwu-Jingle Basin, with pre-Mesozoic units making up of its flanks. The available low-temperature thermochronology implies that Ningwu-Jingle Basin has experienced two stages of uplifting: 94±7Ma to 111±8Ma (Albian to Cenomanian) and 62±4 to 75±5Ma (Danian to Maastrichtian). In order to constrain its tectono-thermal history in the Cenozoic, both apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He and fission track dating analysis are applied on 3 Middle Jurassic and 3 Upper Triassic sandstone samples. The central fission track ages range from 74.4±8.8Ma to 66.0±8.0Ma (Campanian to Maastrichtian) which matches well with previous data. The central He ages range from 20.1±1.2Ma to 49.1±3.0Ma (Ypresian to Burdigalian). Inverse thermal modeling is established based on both apatite fission track data and (U-Th-Sm)/He data. The thermal history obtained reveals that all 6 sandstone samples cross the high-temperature limit of fission track partial annealing zone by the uppermost Cretaceous and that of He partial retention zone by the uppermost Eocene to the early Oligocene. The result indicates that the middle and west of North China Craton is not stable in the Cenozoic.

Keywords: apatite fission track thermochronology, apatite (u–th)/he thermochronology, Ningwu-Jingle basin, North China craton, tectono-thermal history

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2513 Male-Youth-Related Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights Interventions in Bangladesh: Challenges of Program Implementation

Authors: Nahela Nowshin, Rafia Sultana, Farzana Misha, Sabina F. Rashid

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Sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR) are currently an area of neglect for males (aged 15-24 years) in Bangladesh. The lack of focus on the male youth population has consequences not only for their own health and wellbeing, but the patriarchal structure of Bangladeshi society and socio-cultural norms mean that the male population’s SRH behavior can severely impact the lives of their female counterparts. A majority of sexual and reproductive health and rights-related research and interventions in the country are female-centric. Although the Government of Bangladesh has taken many initiatives to improve the SRHR of the general population, the male youth segment has not been prioritized in most of these interventions. There is an urgent need for male-youth-focused SRHR interventions in Bangladesh, but due to a lack of evidence-based research on this issue, there exist data gaps on how such interventions could be better designed and implemented. Therefore, to ascertain strategies for better program design and smoother implementation of male-youth-focused sexual and reproductive health and rights interventions, we carried out 25 key informant interviews with experts as well as focal persons involved in more than 20 ongoing and recently-ended SRHR-related interventions of national and international non-government organizations in which male youth were targeted or engaged. The results show that program implementers face several challenges at the field, organizational and policy levels. Some of the most common field challenges include high sensitivity to SRHR topics due to cultural reasons, difficulties in acquiring access to boys and young men due to their high mobility and engagement in labor for commercial purposes, as well as accessing them in hard-to-reach areas due to transportation and communication issues. Common organizational-level challenges include a lack of skilled manpower. Policy-level challenges include the prohibition of SRH service provision to unmarried adolescents and youth and lack of readiness of local governments to implement existing action plans. Some ways in which male-youth-focused SRHR interventions can be made more effective are through sensitization of service providers, awareness-raising at the community level to engage parents, advocacy to increase donor interest, and generating data on SRHR of male youth.

Keywords: Bangladesh, intervention, male, SRHR

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2512 Classical and Bayesian Inference of the Generalized Log-Logistic Distribution with Applications to Survival Data

Authors: Abdisalam Hassan Muse, Samuel Mwalili, Oscar Ngesa

Abstract:

A generalized log-logistic distribution with variable shapes of the hazard rate was introduced and studied, extending the log-logistic distribution by adding an extra parameter to the classical distribution, leading to greater flexibility in analysing and modeling various data types. The proposed distribution has a large number of well-known lifetime special sub-models such as; Weibull, log-logistic, exponential, and Burr XII distributions. Its basic mathematical and statistical properties were derived. The method of maximum likelihood was adopted for estimating the unknown parameters of the proposed distribution, and a Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to assess the behavior of the estimators. The importance of this distribution is that its tendency to model both monotone (increasing and decreasing) and non-monotone (unimodal and bathtub shape) or reversed “bathtub” shape hazard rate functions which are quite common in survival and reliability data analysis. Furthermore, the flexibility and usefulness of the proposed distribution are illustrated in a real-life data set and compared to its sub-models; Weibull, log-logistic, and BurrXII distributions and other parametric survival distributions with 3-parmaeters; like the exponentiated Weibull distribution, the 3-parameter lognormal distribution, the 3- parameter gamma distribution, the 3-parameter Weibull distribution, and the 3-parameter log-logistic (also known as shifted log-logistic) distribution. The proposed distribution provided a better fit than all of the competitive distributions based on the goodness-of-fit tests, the log-likelihood, and information criterion values. Finally, Bayesian analysis and performance of Gibbs sampling for the data set are also carried out.

Keywords: hazard rate function, log-logistic distribution, maximum likelihood estimation, generalized log-logistic distribution, survival data, Monte Carlo simulation

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2511 The Development of the Spatial and Hierarchic Urban Structure of the Ultra-Orthodox Jewish Population in Israel

Authors: Lee Cahaner, Nissim Leon

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The segregation of populations is one of the main axes in the research of urban geography, which refers to the spatial and functional relationships between settlements. In Israel, this phenomenon has its unique expression in the spatial processes concerning the ultra-orthodox population. This population holds a set of interactions within itself as well as with the non-orthodox surrounding population because of historical and contemporary motivations on its which strength depends on its homogeneousness and separation. Its demographic growth rate and the internal social processes that the ultra-orthodox society undergoes create a new image of the ultra-orthodox concentration and its location in the Israeli space. The goals of the present study have also been defined with the express intention of filling the scholarly vacuum noted above: firstly, to discuss the development of the Israeli ultra-Orthodox sector’s hierarchical and spatial structure as of 2015, in light of the principles and mechanisms that guide it and vis-à-vis the general population’s hierarchical locality system; secondly, to map Israel’s ultra-Orthodox population, with attention to its physical boundaries, its subdivisions (Hassidic, Lithuanian, Sephardic) and the geographical and demographic processes that have characterized it in recent years; and thirdly, to shed light on the interactions between ultra-Orthodox localities via several different parameters, e.g. migration, education, transportation, employment, consumerism and community services. In order to understand the changes in ultra-Orthodox geographic distribution and the social processes that these changes have generated, a number of research activities were conducted during the course of this study− notably, gathering and assembling material from earlier academic studies, newspaper advertisements, state and private archives; in-depth interviews with major figures in the ultra-Orthodox community and others who come into contact with it; tours of the core areas of ultra-Orthodox settlement; and gathering quantitative and qualitative data from the statistical reports of governmental and other bodies. In addition, a multi-participant (2400-respondent) quantitative survey was conducted among residents of the new ultra-Orthodox cities, designed to elucidate the attributes and spatial attitudes of the residents− as a means of tracing and understanding this new settlement pattern within ultra-Orthodox space. A major portion of the quantitative and qualitative material was processed to form a system of maps that visually describe the distribution of Israel’s ultra-Orthodox population.

Keywords: migration, new cities, segregation, ultra-orthodox

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2510 Ontology-Driven Knowledge Discovery and Validation from Admission Databases: A Structural Causal Model Approach for Polytechnic Education in Nigeria

Authors: Bernard Igoche Igoche, Olumuyiwa Matthew, Peter Bednar, Alexander Gegov

Abstract:

This study presents an ontology-driven approach for knowledge discovery and validation from admission databases in Nigerian polytechnic institutions. The research aims to address the challenges of extracting meaningful insights from vast amounts of admission data and utilizing them for decision-making and process improvement. The proposed methodology combines the knowledge discovery in databases (KDD) process with a structural causal model (SCM) ontological framework. The admission database of Benue State Polytechnic Ugbokolo (Benpoly) is used as a case study. The KDD process is employed to mine and distill knowledge from the database, while the SCM ontology is designed to identify and validate the important features of the admission process. The SCM validation is performed using the conditional independence test (CIT) criteria, and an algorithm is developed to implement the validation process. The identified features are then used for machine learning (ML) modeling and prediction of admission status. The results demonstrate the adequacy of the SCM ontological framework in representing the admission process and the high predictive accuracies achieved by the ML models, with k-nearest neighbors (KNN) and support vector machine (SVM) achieving 92% accuracy. The study concludes that the proposed ontology-driven approach contributes to the advancement of educational data mining and provides a foundation for future research in this domain.

Keywords: admission databases, educational data mining, machine learning, ontology-driven knowledge discovery, polytechnic education, structural causal model

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2509 Liability of AI in Workplace: A Comparative Approach Between Shari’ah and Common Law

Authors: Barakat Adebisi Raji

Abstract:

In the workplace, Artificial Intelligence has, in recent years, emerged as a transformative technology that revolutionizes how organizations operate and perform tasks. It is a technology that has a significant impact on transportation, manufacturing, education, cyber security, robotics, agriculture, healthcare, and so many other organizations. By harnessing AI technology, workplaces can enhance productivity, streamline processes, and make more informed decisions. Given the potential of AI to change the way we work and its impact on the labor market in years to come, employers understand that it entails legal challenges and risks despite the advantages inherent in it. Therefore, as AI continues to integrate into various aspects of the workplace, understanding the legal and ethical implications becomes paramount. Also central to this study is the question of who is held liable where AI makes any defaults; the person (company) who created the AI, the person who programmed the AI algorithm or the person who uses the AI? Thus, the aim of this paper is to provide a detailed overview of how AI-related liabilities are addressed under each legal tradition and shed light on potential areas of accord and divergence between the two legal cultures. The objectives of this paper are to (i) examine the ability of Common law and Islamic law to accommodate the issues and damage caused by AI in the workplace and the legality of compensation for such injury sustained; (ii) to discuss the extent to which AI can be described as a legal personality to bear responsibility: (iii) examine the similarities and disparities between Common Law and Islamic Jurisprudence on the liability of AI in the workplace. The methodology adopted in this work was qualitative, and the method was purely a doctrinal research method where information is gathered from the primary and secondary sources of law, such as comprehensive materials found in journal articles, expert-authored books and online news sources. Comparative legal method was also used to juxtapose the approach of Islam and Common Law. The paper concludes that since AI, in its current legal state, is not recognized as a legal entity, operators or manufacturers of AI should be held liable for any damage that arises, and the determination of who bears the responsibility should be dependent on the circumstances surrounding each scenario. The study recommends the granting of legal personality to AI systems, the establishment of legal rights and liabilities for AI, the establishment of a holistic Islamic virtue-based AI ethics framework, and the consideration of Islamic ethics.

Keywords: AI, health- care, agriculture, cyber security, common law, Shari'ah

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2508 Mapping of Geological Structures Using Aerial Photography

Authors: Ankit Sharma, Mudit Sachan, Anurag Prakash

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Rapid growth in data acquisition technologies through drones, have led to advances and interests in collecting high-resolution images of geological fields. Being advantageous in capturing high volume of data in short flights, a number of challenges have to overcome for efficient analysis of this data, especially while data acquisition, image interpretation and processing. We introduce a method that allows effective mapping of geological fields using photogrammetric data of surfaces, drainage area, water bodies etc, which will be captured by airborne vehicles like UAVs, we are not taking satellite images because of problems in adequate resolution, time when it is captured may be 1 yr back, availability problem, difficult to capture exact image, then night vision etc. This method includes advanced automated image interpretation technology and human data interaction to model structures and. First Geological structures will be detected from the primary photographic dataset and the equivalent three dimensional structures would then be identified by digital elevation model. We can calculate dip and its direction by using the above information. The structural map will be generated by adopting a specified methodology starting from choosing the appropriate camera, camera’s mounting system, UAVs design ( based on the area and application), Challenge in air borne systems like Errors in image orientation, payload problem, mosaicing and geo referencing and registering of different images to applying DEM. The paper shows the potential of using our method for accurate and efficient modeling of geological structures, capture particularly from remote, of inaccessible and hazardous sites.

Keywords: digital elevation model, mapping, photogrammetric data analysis, geological structures

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2507 Spatio-Temporal Pest Risk Analysis with ‘BioClass’

Authors: Vladimir A. Todiras

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Spatio-temporal models provide new possibilities for real-time action in pest risk analysis. It should be noted that estimation of the possibility and probability of introduction of a pest and of its economic consequences involves many uncertainties. We present a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk using online BioClass software. BioClass is a GIS tool designed to solve multiple-criteria classification and optimization problems based on fuzzy logic and level set methods. This research describes a method for predicting the potential establishment and spread of a plant pest into new areas using a case study: corn rootworm (Diabrotica spp.), tomato leaf miner (Tuta absoluta) and plum fruit moth (Grapholita funebrana). Our study demonstrated that in BioClass we can combine fuzzy logic and geographic information systems with knowledge of pest biology and environmental data to derive new information for decision making. Pests are sensitive to a warming climate, as temperature greatly affects their survival and reproductive rate and capacity. Changes have been observed in the distribution, frequency and severity of outbreaks of Helicoverpa armigera on tomato. BioClass has demonstrated to be a powerful tool for applying dynamic models and map the potential future distribution of a species, enable resource to make decisions about dangerous and invasive species management and control.

Keywords: classification, model, pest, risk

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2506 A Micro-Scale of Electromechanical System Micro-Sensor Resonator Based on UNO-Microcontroller for Low Magnetic Field Detection

Authors: Waddah Abdelbagi Talha, Mohammed Abdullah Elmaleeh, John Ojur Dennis

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This paper focuses on the simulation and implementation of a resonator micro-sensor for low magnetic field sensing based on a U-shaped cantilever and piezoresistive configuration, which works based on Lorentz force physical phenomena. The resonance frequency is an important parameter that depends upon the highest response and sensitivity through the frequency domain (frequency response) of any vibrated micro-scale of an electromechanical system (MEMS) device. And it is important to determine the direction of the detected magnetic field. The deflection of the cantilever is considered for vibrated mode with different frequencies in the range of (0 Hz to 7000 Hz); for the purpose of observing the frequency response. A simple electronic circuit-based polysilicon piezoresistors in Wheatstone's bridge configuration are used to transduce the response of the cantilever to electrical measurements at various voltages. Microcontroller-based Arduino program and PROTEUS electronic software are used to analyze the output signals from the sensor. The highest output voltage amplitude of about 4.7 mV is spotted at about 3 kHz of the frequency domain, indicating the highest sensitivity, which can be called resonant sensitivity. Based on the resonant frequency value, the mode of vibration is determined (up-down vibration), and based on that, the vector of the magnetic field is also determined.

Keywords: resonant frequency, sensitivity, Wheatstone bridge, UNO-microcontroller

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2505 APP-Based Language Teaching Using Mobile Response System in the Classroom

Authors: Martha Wilson

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With the peak of Computer-Assisted Language Learning slowly coming to pass and Mobile-Assisted Language Learning, at times, a bit lacking in the communicative department, we are now faced with a challenging question: How can we engage the interest of our digital native students and, most importantly, sustain it? As previously mentioned, our classrooms are now experiencing an influx of “digital natives” – people who have grown up using and having unlimited access to technology. While modernizing our curriculum and digitalizing our classrooms are necessary in order to accommodate this new learning style, it is a huge financial burden and a massive undertaking for language institutes. Instead, opting for a more compact, simple, yet multidimensional pedagogical tool may be the solution to the issue at hand. This paper aims to give a brief overview into an existing device referred to as Student Response Systems (SRS) and to expand on this notion to include a new prototype of response system that will be designed as a mobile application to eliminate the need for costly hardware and software. Additionally, an analysis into recent attempts by other institutes to develop the Mobile Response System (MRS) and customer reviews of the existing MRSs will be provided, as well as the lessons learned from those projects. Finally, while the new model of MRS is still in its infancy stage, this paper will discuss the implications of incorporating such an application as a tool to support and to enrich traditional techniques and also offer practical classroom applications with the existing response systems that are immediately available on the market.

Keywords: app, clickers, mobile app, mobile response system, student response system

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2504 Reasons for Food Losses and Waste in Basic Production of Meat Sector in Poland

Authors: Sylwia Laba, Robert Laba, Krystian Szczepanski, Mikolaj Niedek, Anna Kaminska-Dworznicka

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Meat and its products are considered food products, having the most unfavorable effect on the environment that requires rational management of these products and waste, originating throughout the whole chain of manufacture, processing, transport, and trade of meat. From the economic and environmental viewpoints, it is important to limit the losses and food wastage and the food waste in the whole meat sector. The link to basic production includes obtaining raw meat, i.e., animal breeding, management, and transport of animals to the slaughterhouse. Food is any substance or product, intended to be consumed by humans. It was determined (for the needs of the present studies) when the raw material is considered as a food. It is the moment when the animals are prepared to loading with the aim to be transported to a slaughterhouse and utilized for food purposes. The aim of the studies was to determine the reasons for loss generation in the basic production of the meat sector in Poland during the years 2017 – 2018. The studies on food losses and waste in the meat sector in basic production were carried out in two areas: red meat i.e., pork and beef and poultry meat. The studies of basic production were conducted in the period of March-May 2019 at the territory of the whole country on a representative trial of 278 farms, including 102 pork production, 55–beef production, and 121 poultry meat production. The surveys were carried out with the utilization of questionnaires by the PAPI (Paper & Pen Personal Interview) method; the pollsters conducted direct questionnaire interviews. Research results indicate that it is followed that any losses were not recorded during the preparation, loading, and transport of the animals to the slaughterhouse in 33% of the visited farms. In the farms where the losses were indicated, the crushing and suffocations, occurring during the production of pigs, beef cattle and poultry, were the main reasons for these losses. They constituted ca. 40% of the reported reasons. The stress generated by loading and transport caused 16 – 17% (depending on the season of the year) of the loss reasons. In the case of poultry production, in 2017, additionally, 10.7% of losses were caused by inappropriate conditions of loading and transportation, while in 2018 – 11.8%. The diseases were one of the reasons for the losses in pork and beef production (7% of the losses). The losses and waste, generated during livestock production and in meat processing and trade cannot be managed or recovered. They have to be disposed of. It is, therefore, important to prevent and minimize the losses throughout the whole production chain. It is possible to introduce the appropriate measures, connected mainly with the appropriate conditions and methods of animal loading and transport.

Keywords: food losses, food waste, livestock production, meat sector

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2503 Short-Term Forecast of Wind Turbine Production with Machine Learning Methods: Direct Approach and Indirect Approach

Authors: Mamadou Dione, Eric Matzner-lober, Philippe Alexandre

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The Energy Transition Act defined by the French State has precise implications on Renewable Energies, in particular on its remuneration mechanism. Until then, a purchase obligation contract permitted the sale of wind-generated electricity at a fixed rate. Tomorrow, it will be necessary to sell this electricity on the Market (at variable rates) before obtaining additional compensation intended to reduce the risk. This sale on the market requires to announce in advance (about 48 hours before) the production that will be delivered on the network, so to be able to predict (in the short term) this production. The fundamental problem remains the variability of the Wind accentuated by the geographical situation. The objective of the project is to provide, every day, short-term forecasts (48-hour horizon) of wind production using weather data. The predictions of the GFS model and those of the ECMWF model are used as explanatory variables. The variable to be predicted is the production of a wind farm. We do two approaches: a direct approach that predicts wind generation directly from weather data, and an integrated approach that estimâtes wind from weather data and converts it into wind power by power curves. We used machine learning techniques to predict this production. The models tested are random forests, CART + Bagging, CART + Boosting, SVM (Support Vector Machine). The application is made on a wind farm of 22MW (11 wind turbines) of the Compagnie du Vent (that became Engie Green France). Our results are very conclusive compared to the literature.

Keywords: forecast aggregation, machine learning, spatio-temporal dynamics modeling, wind power forcast

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2502 Interaction between Space Syntax and Agent-Based Approaches for Vehicle Volume Modelling

Authors: Chuan Yang, Jing Bie, Panagiotis Psimoulis, Zhong Wang

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Modelling and understanding vehicle volume distribution over the urban network are essential for urban design and transport planning. The space syntax approach was widely applied as the main conceptual and methodological framework for contemporary vehicle volume models with the help of the statistical method of multiple regression analysis (MRA). However, the MRA model with space syntax variables shows a limitation in vehicle volume predicting in accounting for the crossed effect of the urban configurational characters and socio-economic factors. The aim of this paper is to construct models by interacting with the combined impact of the street network structure and socio-economic factors. In this paper, we present a multilevel linear (ML) and an agent-based (AB) vehicle volume model at an urban scale interacting with space syntax theoretical framework. The ML model allowed random effects of urban configurational characteristics in different urban contexts. And the AB model was developed with the incorporation of transformed space syntax components of the MRA models into the agents’ spatial behaviour. Three models were implemented in the same urban environment. The ML model exhibit superiority over the original MRA model in identifying the relative impacts of the configurational characters and macro-scale socio-economic factors that shape vehicle movement distribution over the city. Compared with the ML model, the suggested AB model represented the ability to estimate vehicle volume in the urban network considering the combined effects of configurational characters and land-use patterns at the street segment level.

Keywords: space syntax, vehicle volume modeling, multilevel model, agent-based model

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2501 Text Mining of Veterinary Forums for Epidemiological Surveillance Supplementation

Authors: Samuel Munaf, Kevin Swingler, Franz Brülisauer, Anthony O’Hare, George Gunn, Aaron Reeves

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Web scraping and text mining are popular computer science methods deployed by public health researchers to augment traditional epidemiological surveillance. However, within veterinary disease surveillance, such techniques are still in the early stages of development and have not yet been fully utilised. This study presents an exploration into the utility of incorporating internet-based data to better understand the smallholder farming communities within Scotland by using online text extraction and the subsequent mining of this data. Web scraping of the livestock fora was conducted in conjunction with text mining of the data in search of common themes, words, and topics found within the text. Results from bi-grams and topic modelling uncover four main topics of interest within the data pertaining to aspects of livestock husbandry: feeding, breeding, slaughter, and disposal. These topics were found amongst both the poultry and pig sub-forums. Topic modeling appears to be a useful method of unsupervised classification regarding this form of data, as it has produced clusters that relate to biosecurity and animal welfare. Internet data can be a very effective tool in aiding traditional veterinary surveillance methods, but the requirement for human validation of said data is crucial. This opens avenues of research via the incorporation of other dynamic social media data, namely Twitter and Facebook/Meta, in addition to time series analysis to highlight temporal patterns.

Keywords: veterinary epidemiology, disease surveillance, infodemiology, infoveillance, smallholding, social media, web scraping, sentiment analysis, geolocation, text mining, NLP

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2500 Political Regimes, Political Stability and Debt Dependence in African Countries of Franc Zone: A Logistic Modeling

Authors: Nounamo Nguedie Yann Harold

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The factors behind the debt have been the subject of several studies in the literature. Pioneering studies based on the 'double deficit' approach linked indebtedness to the imbalance between savings and investment, the budget deficit and the current account deficit. Most studies on identifying factors that may stimulate or reduce the level of external public debt agree that the following variables are important explanatory variables in leveraging debt: the budget deficit, trade opening, current account and exchange rate, import, export, interest rate, term variation exchange rate, economic growth rate and debt service, capital flight, and over-indebtedness. Few studies addressed the impact of political factors on the level of external debt. In general, however, the IMF's stabilization programs in developing countries following the debt crisis have resulted in economic recession and the advent of political crises that have resulted in changes in governments. In this sense, political institutions are recognised as factors of accumulation of external debt in most developing countries. This paper assesses the role of political factors on the external debt level of African countries in the Franc Zone over the period 1985-2016. Data used come from World Bank and ICRG. Using a logit in panel, the results show that the more a country is politically stable, the lower the external debt compared to the gross domestic product. Political stability multiplies 1.18% the chances of being in the sustainable debt zone. For example, countries with good political institutions experience less severe external debt burdens than countries with bad political institutions.

Keywords: African countries, external debt, Franc Zone, political factors

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2499 Thermal Analysis and Experimental Procedure of Integrated Phase Change Material in a Storage Tank

Authors: Chargui Ridha, Agrebi Sameh

Abstract:

The integration of phase change materials (PCM) for the storage of thermal energy during the period of sunshine before being released during the night is a complement of free energy to improve the system formed by a solar collector, tank storage, and a heat exchanger. This paper is dedicated to the design of a thermal storage tank based on a PCM-based heat exchanger. The work is divided into two parts: an experimental part using paraffin as PCM was carried out within the Laboratory of Thermal Processes of Borj Cedria in order to improve the performance of the system formed by the coupling of a flat solar collector and a thermal storage tank and to subsequently determine the influence of PCM on the whole system. This phase is based on the measurement instrumentation, namely, a differential scanning calorimeter (DSC) and the thermal analyzer (hot disk: HOT DISK) in order to determine the physical properties of the paraffin (PCM), which has been chosen. The second phase involves the detailed design of the PCM heat exchanger, which is incorporated into a thermal storage tank and coupled with a solar air collector installed at the Research and Technology Centre of Energy (CRTEn). A numerical part based on the TRANSYS and Fluent software, as well as the finite volume method, was carried out for the storage reservoir systems in order to determine the temperature distribution in each chosen system.

Keywords: phase change materials, storage tank, heat exchanger, flat plate collector

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2498 The Relationship between First-Day Body Temperature and Mortality in Traumatic Patients

Authors: Neda Valizadeh, Mani Mofidi, Sama Haghighi, Ali Hashemaghaee, Soudabeh Shafiee Ardestani

Abstract:

Background: There are many systems and parameters to evaluate trauma patients in the emergency department. Most of these evaluations are to distinguish patients with worse conditions so that the care systems have a better prediction of condition for a better care-giving. The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between axillary body temperature and mortality in patients hospitalized in the intensive care unit (ICU) with multiple traumas and with other clinical and para-clinical factors. Methods: All patients between 16 and 75 years old with multiple traumas who were admitted into Emergency Department then hospitalized in the ICU were included in our study. An axillary temperature in the first and the second day of admission, Glasgow cola scale (GCS), systolic blood pressure, Serum glucose levels, and white blood cell counts of all patients at the admission day were recorded and their relationship with mortality were analyzed by SPSS software with suitable statistical tests. Results: Axillary body temperatures in the first and second day were statistically lower in expired traumatic patients (p=0.001 and p<0,001 respectively). Patients with lower GCS had a significantly lower first-day temperature and a significantly higher mortality. (p=0.006 and p=0.006 respectively). Furthermore, the first-day axillary temperature was significantly lower in patients with a lower first-day systolic blood pressure (p=0.014). Conclusion: Our results showed that lower axillary body temperature in the first day is associated with higher mortality, lower GCS, and lower systolic blood pressure. Thus, this could be used as a predictor of mortality in evaluation of traumatic patients in emergency settings.

Keywords: fever, trauma, mortality, emergency

Procedia PDF Downloads 356
2497 Roof Integrated Photo Voltaic with Air Collection on Glasgow School of Art Campus Building: A Feasibility Study

Authors: Rosalie Menon, Angela Reid

Abstract:

Building integrated photovoltaic systems with air collectors (hybrid PV-T) have proved successful however there are few examples of their application in the UK. The opportunity to pull heat from behind the PV system to contribute to a building’s heating system is an efficient use of waste energy and its potential to improve the performance of the PV array is well documented. As part of Glasgow School of Art’s estate expansion, the purchase and redevelopment of an existing 1950’s college building was used as a testing vehicle for the hybrid PV-T system as an integrated element of the upper floor and roof. The primary objective of the feasibility study was to determine if hybrid PV-T was technically and financially suitable for the refurbished building. The key consideration was whether the heat recovered from the PV panels (to increase the electrical efficiency) can be usefully deployed as a heat source within the building. Dynamic thermal modelling (IES) and RetScreen Software were used to carry out the feasibility study not only to simulate overshadowing and optimise the PV-T locations but also to predict the atrium temperature profile; predict the air load for the proposed new 4 No. roof mounted air handling units and to predict the dynamic electrical efficiency of the PV element. The feasibility study demonstrates that there is an energy reduction and carbon saving to be achieved with each hybrid PV-T option however the systems are subject to lengthy payback periods and highlights the need for enhanced government subsidy schemes to reward innovation with this technology in the UK.

Keywords: building integrated, photovoltatic thermal, pre-heat air, ventilation

Procedia PDF Downloads 148
2496 Structural Assessment of Low-Rise Reinforced Concrete Frames under Tsunami Loads

Authors: Hussain Jiffry, Kypros Pilakoutas, Reyes Garcia Lopez

Abstract:

This study examines the effect of tsunami loads on reinforced concrete (RC) frame buildings analytically. The impact of tsunami wave loads and waterborne objects are analyzed using a typical substandard full-scale two-story RC frame building tested as part of the EU-funded Ecoleader project. The building was subjected to shake table tests in bare condition and subsequently strengthened using Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymers (CFRP) composites and retested. Numerical models of the building in both bare and CFRP-strengthened conditions are calibrated in DRAIN-3DX software to match the test results. To investigate the response of wave loads and impact forces, the numerical models are subjected to nonlinear dynamic analyses using force-time history input records. The analytical results are compared in terms of displacements at the floors and the 'impact point' of a boat. The results show that the roof displacement of the CFRP-strengthened building reduced by 63% when compared to the bare building. The results also indicate that strengthening only the mid-height of the impact column using CFRP is more efficient at reducing damage when compared to strengthening other parts of the column. Alternative solutions to mitigate damage due to tsunami loads are suggested.

Keywords: tsunami loads, hydrodynamic load, impact load, waterborne objects, RC buildings

Procedia PDF Downloads 443
2495 Microscopic Simulation of Toll Plaza Safety and Operations

Authors: Bekir O. Bartin, Kaan Ozbay, Sandeep Mudigonda, Hong Yang

Abstract:

The use of microscopic traffic simulation in evaluating the operational and safety conditions at toll plazas is demonstrated. Two toll plazas in New Jersey are selected as case studies and were developed and validated in Paramics traffic simulation software. In order to simulate drivers’ lane selection behavior in Paramics, a utility-based lane selection approach is implemented in Paramics Application Programming Interface (API). For each vehicle approaching the toll plaza, a utility value is assigned to each toll lane by taking into account the factors that are likely to impact drivers’ lane selection behavior, such as approach lane, exit lane and queue lengths. The results demonstrate that similar operational conditions, such as lane-by-lane toll plaza traffic volume can be attained using this approach. In addition, assessment of safety at toll plazas is conducted via a surrogate safety measure. In particular, the crash index (CI), an improved surrogate measure of time-to-collision (TTC), which reflects the severity of a crash is used in the simulation analyses. The results indicate that the spatial and temporal frequency of observed crashes can be simulated using the proposed methodology. Further analyses can be conducted to evaluate and compare various different operational decisions and safety measures using microscopic simulation models.

Keywords: microscopic simulation, toll plaza, surrogate safety, application programming interface

Procedia PDF Downloads 162
2494 Investigating the Relationship Between Corporate Governance and Financial Performance Considering the Moderating Role of Opinion and Internal Control Weakness

Authors: Fatemeh Norouzi

Abstract:

Today, financial performance has become one of the important issues in accounting and auditing that companies and their managers have paid attention to this issue and for this reason to the variables that are influential in this field. One of the things that can affect financial performance is corporate governance, which is examined in this research, although some things such as issues related to auditing can also moderate this relationship; Therefore, this research has been conducted with the aim of investigating the relationship between corporate governance and financial performance with regard to the moderating role of feedback and internal control weakness. The research is practical in terms of purpose, and in terms of method, it has been done in a post-event descriptive manner, in which the data has been analyzed using stock market data. Data collection has been done by using stock exchange data which has been extracted from the website of the Iraqi Stock Exchange, the statistical population of this research is all the companies admitted to the Iraqi Stock Exchange. . The statistical sample in this research is considered from 2014 to 2021, which includes 34 companies. Four different models have been considered for the research hypotheses, which are eight hypotheses, in this research, the analysis has been done using EXCEL and STATA15 software. In this article, collinearity test, integration test ,determination of fixed effects and correlation matrix results, have been used. The research results showed that the first four hypotheses were rejected and the second four hypotheses were confirmed.

Keywords: size of the board of directors, duality of the CEO, financial performance, internal control weakness

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2493 Prediction of Boundary Shear Stress with Gradually Tapering Flood Plains

Authors: Spandan Sahu, Amiya Kumar Pati, Kishanjit Kumar Khatua

Abstract:

River is the main source of water. It is a form of natural open channel which gives rise to many complex phenomenon of sciences that needs to be tackled such as the critical flow conditions, boundary shear stress and depth averaged velocity. The development of society more or less solely depends upon the flow of rivers. The rivers are major sources of many sediments and specific ingredients which are much essential for human beings. During floods, part of a river is carried by the simple main channel and rest is carried by flood plains. For such compound asymmetric channels, the flow structure becomes complicated due to momentum exchange between main channel and adjoining flood plains. Distribution of boundary shear in subsections provides us with the concept of momentum transfer between the interface of main channel and the flood plains. Experimentally, to get better data with accurate results are very complex because of the complexity of the problem. Hence, Conveyance Estimation System (CES) software has been used to tackle the complex processes to determine the shear stresses at different sections of an open channel having asymmetric flood plains on both sides of the main channel and the results are compared with the symmetric flood plains for various geometrical shapes and flow conditions. Error analysis is also performed to know the degree of accuracy of the model implemented.

Keywords: depth average velocity, non prismatic compound channel, relative flow depth , velocity distribution

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2492 Construction 4.0: The Future of the Construction Industry in South Africa

Authors: Temidayo. O. Osunsanmi, Clinton Aigbavboa, Ayodeji Oke

Abstract:

The construction industry is a renowned latecomer to the efficiency offered by the adoption of information technology. Whereas, the banking, manufacturing, retailing industries have keyed into the future by using digitization and information technology as a new approach for ensuring competitive gain and efficiency. The construction industry has yet to fully realize similar benefits because the adoption of ICT is still at the infancy stage with a major concentration on the use of software. Thus, this study evaluates the awareness and readiness of construction professionals towards embracing a full digitalization of the construction industry using construction 4.0. The term ‘construction 4.0’ was coined from the industry 4.0 concept which is regarded as the fourth industrial revolution that originated from Germany. A questionnaire was utilized for sourcing data distributed to practicing construction professionals through a convenience sampling method. Using SPSS v24, the hypotheses posed were tested with the Mann Whitney test. The result revealed that there are no differences between the consulting and contracting organizations on the readiness for adopting construction 4.0 concepts in the construction industry. Using factor analysis, the study discovers that adopting construction 4.0 will improve the performance of the construction industry regarding cost and time savings and also create sustainable buildings. In conclusion, the study determined that construction professionals have a low awareness towards construction 4.0 concepts. The study recommends an increase in awareness of construction 4.0 concepts through seminars, workshops and training, while construction professionals should take hold of the benefits of adopting construction 4.0 concepts. The study contributes to the roadmap for the implementation of construction industry 4.0 concepts in the South African construction industry.

Keywords: building information technology, Construction 4.0, Industry 4.0, smart site

Procedia PDF Downloads 379
2491 Riverine Urban Heritage: A Basis for Green Infrastructure

Authors: Ioanna H. Lioliou, Despoina D. Zavraka

Abstract:

The radical reformation that Greek urban space, has undergone over the last century, due to the socio-historical developments, technological development and political–geographic factors, has left its imprint on the urban landscape. While the big cities struggle to regain urban landscape balance, small towns are considered to offer high quality lifescapes, ensuring sustainable development potential. However, their unplanned urbanization process led to the loss of significant areas of nature, lack of essential infrastructure, chaotic built environment, incompatible land uses and urban cohesiveness. Natural environment reference points, such as springs, streams, rivers, forests, suburban greenbelts, and etc.; seems to be detached from urban space, while the public, open and green spaces, unequally distributed in the built environment, they are no longer able to offer a complete experience of nature in the city. This study focuses on Greek mainland, a small town Elassona, and aims to restore spatial coherence between the city’s homonymous river and its urban space surroundings. The existence of a linear aquatic ecosystem, is considered a precious greenway, also referred as blueway, able to initiate natural penetrations and ecosystems empowering. The integration of disconnected natural ecosystems forms the basis of a strategic intervention scheme, where the river becomes the urban integration tool / feature, constituting the main urban corridor and an indispensible part of a wider green network that connects open and green spaces, ensuring the function of all the established networks (transportation, commercial, social) of the town. The proposed intervention, introduces a green network highlighting the old stone bridge at the ‘entrance’ of the river in the town and expanding throughout the town with strategic uses and activities, providing accessibility for all the users. The methodology used, is based on the collection of design tools used in related urban river-design interventions around the world. The reinstallation/reactivation of the balance between natural and urban landscape, besides the environmental benefits, contributes decisively to the illustration/projection of urban green identity and re-enhancement of the quality of lifescape qualities and social interaction.

Keywords: green network, rehabilitation scheme, urban landscape, urban streams

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2490 A Comparative Study to Evaluate Chronological Age and Dental Age in the North Indian Population Using Cameriere's Method

Authors: Ranjitkumar Patil

Abstract:

Age estimation has importance in forensic dentistry. Dental age estimation has emerged as an alternative to skeletal age determination. The methods based on stages of tooth formation, as appreciated on radiographs, seem to be more appropriate in the assessment of age than those based on skeletal development. The study was done to evaluate dental age in the north Indian population using Cameriere’s method. Aims/Objectives: The study was conducted to assess the dental age of North Indian children using Cameriere’s method and to compare the chronological age and dental age for validation of the Cameriere’s method in the north Indian population. A comparative study of 02-year duration on the OPG (using PLANMECA Promax 3D) data of 497 individuals with ages ranging from 5 to 15 years was done based on simple random technique ethical approval obtained from institutional ethical committee. The data was obtained based on inclusion and exclusion criteria and was analyzed by software for dental age estimation. Statistical analysis: The student’s t-test was used to compare the morphological variables of males with those of females and to compare observed age with estimated age. The regression formula was also calculated. Results: Present study was a comparative study of 497 subjects with a distribution between males and females, with their dental age assessed by using a Panoramic radiograph, following the method described by Cameriere, which is widely accepted. Statistical analysis in our study indicated that gender does not have a significant influence on age estimation. (R2= 0.787). Conclusion: This infers that Cameriere’s method can be effectively applied to the north Indian population.

Keywords: forensic, dental age, skeletal age, chronological age, Cameriere’s method

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2489 Comparison of Slope Data between Google Earth and the Digital Terrain Model, for Registration in Car

Authors: André Felipe Gimenez, Flávia Alessandra Ribeiro da Silva, Roberto Saverio Souza Costa

Abstract:

Currently, the rural producer has been facing problems regarding environmental regularization, which is precisely why the CAR (Rural Environmental Registry) was created. CAR is an electronic registry for rural properties with the purpose of assimilating notions about legal reserve areas, permanent preservation areas, areas of limited use, stable areas, forests and remnants of native vegetation, and all rural properties in Brazil. . The objective of this work was to evaluate and compare altimetry and slope data from google Earth with a digital terrain model (MDT) generated by aerophotogrammetry, in three plots of a steep slope, for the purpose of declaration in the CAR (Rural Environmental Registry). The realization of this work is justified in these areas, in which rural landowners have doubts about the reliability of the use of the free software Google Earth to diagnose inclinations greater than 25 degrees, as recommended by federal law 12651/2012. Added to the fact that in the literature, there is a deficiency of this type of study for the purpose of declaration of the CAR. The results showed that when comparing the drone altimetry data with the Google Earth image data, in areas of high slope (above 40% slope), Google underestimated the real values of terrain slope. Thus, it is concluded that Google Earth is not reliable for diagnosing areas with an inclination greater than 25 degrees (46% declivity) for the purpose of declaration in the CAR, being essential to carry out the local topographic survey.

Keywords: MDT, drone, RPA, SiCar, photogrammetry

Procedia PDF Downloads 112