Search results for: schedule variance

Authors: Wilmer Osvaldo Martinez, Manuel Dario Hernandez, Juan Manuel Julio

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We propose to assess the performance of k forecast procedures by exploring the distributions of forecast errors and error losses. We argue that non systematic forecast errors minimize when their distributions are symmetric and unimodal, and that forecast accuracy should be assessed through stochastic loss order rather than expected loss order, which is the way it is customarily performed in previous work. Moreover, since forecast performance evaluation can be understood as a one way analysis of variance, we propose to explore loss distributions under two circumstances; when a strict (but unknown) joint stochastic order exists among the losses of all forecast alternatives, and when such order happens among subsets of alternative procedures. In spite of the fact that loss stochastic order is stronger than loss moment order, our proposals are at least as powerful as competing tests, and are robust to the correlation, autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity settings they consider. In addition, since our proposals do not require samples of the same size, their scope is also wider, and provided that they test the whole loss distribution instead of just loss moments, they can also be used to study forecast distributions as well. We illustrate the usefulness of our proposals by evaluating a set of real world forecasts.

Keywords: forecast evaluation, stochastic order, multiple comparison, non parametric test

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Authors: Fayyaz Rasool, Naureen Aziz Qureshi, Shakeela Parveen

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Labeo rohita populations from five geographical locations from the hatchery and riverine system of Punjab-Pakistan were studied for the clustering on the basis of similarities and differences based on morphometric parameters within the species. Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering (AHC) was done by using Pearson Correlation Coefficient and Unweighted Pair Group Method with Arithmetic Mean (UPGMA) as Agglomeration method by XLSTAT 2012 version 1.02. A dendrogram with the data on the morphometrics of the representative samples of each site divided the populations of Labeo rohita in to five major clusters or classes. The variance decomposition for the optimal classification values remained as 19.24% for within class variation, while 80.76% for the between class differences. The representative central objects of the each class, the distances between the class centroids and also the distance between the central objects of the classes were generated by the analysis. A measurable distinction between the classes of the populations of the Labeo rohita was indicated in this study which determined the impacts of changing environment and other possible factors influencing the variation level among the populations of the same species.

Keywords: AHC, Labeo rohita, hatchery, riverine, morphometric

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Authors: Eng Rima Al-Awadhi, Abdul Jaleel Tharayil

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In a project-centric organization like KOC, managing the knowledge of the project is of critical importance to the success of the project and the organization. However, due to the very nature and complexity involved, each project engagement generates a lot of 'learnings' that need to be factored into while new projects are initiated and thus avoid repeating the same mistake. But, many a time these learnings are localized and remains as ‘tacit knowledge’ leading to scope re-work, schedule overrun, adjustment orders, concession requests and claims. While KOC follows an asset based organization structure, with a multi-cultural and multi-ethnic workforce and larger chunk of the work is carried out through complex, long term project engagement, diffusion of ‘learnings’ across assets while dealing with the natural entropy of the organization is of great significance. Considering the relatively higher number of mega projects, it's important that the issues raised during the project life cycle are centrally harvested, analyzed and the ‘learnings’ from these issues are shared, absorbed and are in-turn utilized to enhance and refine the existing process and practices, leading to improve the project performance. One of the many factors contributing to the successful completion of a project on time is the reduction in the number of variations or concessions triggered during the project life cycle. The project process integrated knowledge sharing framework discusses the knowledge harvesting methodology adopted, the challenges faced, learnings acquired and its impact on project performance. The framework facilitates the proactive identification of issues that may have an impact on the overall quality of the project and improve performance.

Keywords: knowledge harvesting, project integrated knowledge sharing, performance improvement, knowledge management, lessons learn

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Authors: A. Ratika Thakur, B. A. K. Sinha , C. R. K. Pathak

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Reproductive Tract Infections are recognized as a serious global health problem with direct impact on women. In the developing countries, prevalence of RTI is much higher relative to other health problems. Women of the reproductive age group are socially, mentally and physically more vulnerable to infections. Also, it is a well established fact that RTI has prolonged complications in women rather than men. It causes ectopic pregnancy, pelvic inflammatory diseases, miscarriage and infertility in the long course. Women perspective about infections is less studied. In this view the study was carried out with an aim to determine knowledge, perception and belief of married women towards reproductive tract infection. The study was conducted in Junga village, District Shimla, Himachal Pradesh, India. 48 women were interviewed regarding awareness, beliefs and taboos related to reproductive tract infection. Other aspects like fertility history were also taken into account. The data were collected using interviews with the help of interview schedule and interview guide. Data were recorded in the form of narratives and case studies. The analysis was done using quantitative and qualitative analysis. It was found that a majority of women were not aware about the reasons of infection. Moreover cultural beliefs, perceptions and taboos made them more vulnerable and exposed to RTI. Economic dependency upon men, lack of control in barrier methods were some of the factors that contributed to delayed treatment of women. It was found that a majority of women suffering from RTIs were silently bearing the burden and underwent treatment when the case would not rest in their hands.

Keywords: belief, infection, perception, taboo, women

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Authors: Yared Assefa Demessie

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This study may help to establish the appropriateness of ceramic waste aggregate for concrete production since it is obviously understood that the rising from continuous urbanization and industrialization development leads depletion of natural construction resource and the disposal of waste material. It can be used as base to conduct a study on the alternative readily available materials like ceramic industrial waste aggregates can lead to environmental concrete. The study assessed the fresh and hardened properties of the concrete produced by replacing part of the natural fine aggregate with an aggregate produced from ceramic industrial waste. In the study, experimental investigation was employed which involved two major tasks: material specifications and experimental evaluation of concrete were done in the laboratory. Experimental investigations such that workability, unit weight, compressive strength test, tensile strength test and flexural strength test for C-25 concrete mixes with different percentages of ceramic industrial waste aggregate after a curing period of 7 and 28 days has done and interpreted the result statically using mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variance.

Keywords: ceramic industrial waste, fresh concrete, hardened concrete, fine aggregate

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Authors: Anees Raza, Liu Chunyan

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Renewable energy technologies are need of the time and are already making the big impact in the climatic outlook of the world. Biogas technology is one of those, and it has a lot of benefits for its users. It is cost effective because it is produced from the raw material which is available free of cost to the livestock farmers. Bio-slurry, a by-product of biogas, is being used as fertilizer for the crops production and increasing soil fertility. There are many other household benefits of technology. Research paper discusses the benefits of biogas as perceived by the biogas users as well as non-users of Tehsil Jhang. Data were collected from 60 respondents (30 users and 30 non-users) selected purposively through validated and pre-tested interview schedule from the respondents. Collected data were analyzed by using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). Household benefits like ‘makes cooking easy,’ ‘Less breathing issues for working women in kitchens’ and ‘Use of bio-slurry as organic fertilizer’ had the highly significant relationship between them with t-values of 3.24, 4.39 and 2.80 respectively. Responses of the respondents about environmental benefits of biogas technology showed that ‘less air pollution’ had a significant relationship between them while ‘less temperature rise up than due to the burning of wood /dung’ had the non-significant relationship in the responses of interviewed respondents. It was clear from the research that biogas users were becoming influential in convincing non-users to adopt this technology due to its noticeable benefits. Research area where people were depending on wood to be used as fire fuel could be helped in reduction of cutting of trees which will help in controlling deforestation and saving the environment.People should be encouraged in using of biogas technology through providing them subsidies and low mark up loans.

Keywords: biogas technology, deforestation, environmental benefits, renewable energy

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Authors: Hany Mohamed Abdu, Mohamed Hassan Gadallah, El-Giushi Mokhtar, Yehia Mahmoud Ismail

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Laser beam cutting is one nontraditional machining process. This paper optimizes the parameters of Laser beam cutting machining parameters of Stainless steel (316L) by considering the effect of input parameters viz. power, oxygen pressure, frequency and cutting speed. Statistical design of experiments are carried in three different levels and process responses such as 'Average kerf taper (Ta)' and 'Surface Roughness (Ra)' are measured accordingly. A quadratic mathematical model (RSM) for each of the responses is developed as a function of the process parameters. Responses predicted by the models (as per Taguchi’s L27 OA) are employed to search for an optimal parametric combination to achieve desired yield of the process. RSM models are developed for mean responses, S/N ratio, and standard deviation of responses. Optimization models are formulated as single objective problem subject to process constraints. Models are formulated based on Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) using MATLAB environment. Optimum solutions are compared with Taguchi Methodology results.

Keywords: optimization, laser cutting, robust design, kerf width, Taguchi method, RSM and DOE

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Authors: Shujie Liu

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This study aimed to investigate the relationship between teachers’ perceived transformational leadership behaviors and their job satisfaction in China after controlling for teacher self-efficacy. Hierarchical regression analysis (HRA) technique was employed to examine factors’ contributions to teacher job satisfaction with a sample of Chinese high school teachers. The finding of this study provided evidence that teachers’ perceived transformational leadership behaviors accounted for a large percentage (44.9%) of the variance in Chinese teachers’ job satisfaction. Uniquely, school principals’ sense of power was a negative significant predictor of teacher job satisfaction, meaning that the more teachers perceived their principals’ sense of power, the lower of their job satisfaction. Furthermore, this study provided evidence that teacher self-efficacy significantly contributes to teacher job satisfaction. Specifically, teachers’ self-efficacy on student engagement was found to be a significant predictor of teacher job satisfaction. The conclusions were discussed in terms of Chinese cultures. The authors pointed out that how to make teachers involved in school policy making is a challenge for China and that more shared leadership is needed in Chinese schools.

Keywords: Chinese teachers, teacher job satisfaction, teacher self-efficacy, transformational leadership

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Authors: Bokkasam Sasidhar, Ibrahim Aljasser

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The problem of finding optimal schedules for each equipment in a production process is considered, which consists of a single stage of manufacturing and which can handle different types of products, where changeover for handling one type of product to the other type incurs certain costs. The machine capacity is determined by the upper limit for the quantity that can be processed for each of the products in a set up. The changeover costs increase with the number of set ups and hence to minimize the costs associated with the product changeover, the planning should be such that similar types of products should be processed successively so that the total number of changeovers and in turn the associated set up costs are minimized. The problem of cost minimization is equivalent to the problem of minimizing the number of set ups or equivalently maximizing the capacity utilization in between every set up or maximizing the total capacity utilization. Further, the production is usually planned against customers’ orders, and generally different customers’ orders are assigned one of the two priorities – “normal” or “priority” order. The problem of production planning in such a situation can be formulated into a Multiple Arc Network (MAN) model and can be solved sequentially using the algorithm for maximizing flow along a MAN and the algorithm for maximizing flow along a MAN with priority arcs. The model aims to provide optimal production schedule with an objective of maximizing capacity utilization, so that the customer-wise delivery schedules are fulfilled, keeping in view the customer priorities. Algorithms have been presented for solving the MAN formulation of the production planning with customer priorities. The application of the model is demonstrated through numerical examples.

Keywords: scheduling, maximal flow problem, multiple arc network model, optimization

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Authors: Helen Pushkarskaya, Michael Smithson, Jane E. Joseph, Christine Corbly, Ifat Levy

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Studies of decision making under uncertainty generally focus on imprecise information about outcome probabilities (“ambiguity”). It is not clear, however, whether conflicting information about outcome probabilities affects decision making in the same manner as ambiguity does. Here we combine functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) and a simple gamble design to study this question. In this design, the levels of ambiguity and conflict are parametrically varied, and ambiguity and conflict gambles are matched on both expected value and variance. Behaviorally, participants avoided conflict more than ambiguity, and attitudes toward ambiguity and conflict did not correlate across subjects. Neurally, regional brain activation was differentially modulated by ambiguity level and aversion to ambiguity and by conflict level and aversion to conflict. Activation in the medial prefrontal cortex was correlated with the level of ambiguity and with ambiguity aversion, whereas activation in the ventral striatum was correlated with the level of conflict and with conflict aversion. This novel double dissociation indicates that decision makers process imprecise and conflicting information differently, a finding that has important implications for basic and clinical research.

Keywords: decision making, uncertainty, ambiguity, conflict, fMRI

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Authors: Sujatha Shanmugasundaram

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Background: It has been since one year that COVID-19 has emerged into the world. Since then, healthcare professionals facing a great challenge in to fight against this deadly virus. According to World Health Organization (WHO) 2021, it is estimated that more than 131 million confirmed cases and 2million deaths around the world due to this pandemic. Nurses are the frontline workers who play a major role in safeguarding the lives of the people in acute care settings. Evidence suggests that there are numbers of research have been carried out on nurses' and healthcare provider’s experiences during the pandemic. But, unfortunately, there are no or little evidence available on Muslim nurse’s perspective. Hence, this research will investigate the experiences of Muslim nurses working in an acute care setting during the pandemic. Purpose: The purpose of the study is to explore the experiences of Muslim nurses working in an acute setting during the COVID-19 pandemic. Research Methods: A qualitative research approach will be utilized for the study. Semi-structured interview schedule will be used to collect the data. Face to face interviews will be conducted. All interviews will be conducted in Arabic, and it will be audio recorded. Verbatim will be noted. Muslim nurses working in an acute setting will be included in the study. Convenient sampling technique will be used to recruit the participants. Ethical approval will be obtained from the study sites. Strauss and Corbin's thematic analysis will be used to analyze the data. Conclusion: Considering that nurses are the frontline workers, they have a significant role in dealing with this COVID-19. It is a great challenge for the nurses working in an acute care setting. Thus, this study will bring out significant findings that will impact the nursing practice.

Keywords: acute care, COVID-19, experiences, muslim nurses

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Authors: Mohamed Gomaa Mohamed

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Type of study: Observational cross section study. Background and purpose: Forward head posture (FHP) is a common sagittal faulty posture with anterior head translation relative to vertical posture line. FHP related to temporomandibular joint dysfunctions, neck pain and headache. Sports persons usually overuse one side of the body in training and playing leading to postural imbalance, yet the effect of playing football or bodybuilding on measurements of FHP has never been studied. Participants: Thirty six subjects divided into 3 groups of 12 football players, 12 body builders and 12 students. Method: FHP severity was assessed by measuring the craniovertebral (CVA) and gaze angles, using the photogrammetric method. Photos were taken from right side of subjects while assuming standing position. Analysis of variance was used to assess angles difference between the three groups. Results: No significant differences were found in CVA and gaze angles between the three groups (P > 0.05). Conclusion: Playing football or body building doesn't impose significant FHP.

Keywords: craniovertebral angle, gaze angle, football, body building

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Authors: S. S. L. Andrade, E. A. Souza, L. C. L. Santos, C. Moraes, A. K. C. L. Lobato

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Biodiesel production using membrane reactor has become increasingly studied, because this process minimizes some of the main problems encountered in the biodiesel purification. The membrane reactor tries to minimize post-treatment steps, resulting in cost savings and enabling the competitiveness of biodiesel produced by homogeneous alkaline catalysis. This is due to the reaction and product separation may occur simultaneously. In order to evaluate the production of biodiesel from soybean oils using a tubular membrane reactor, a factorial experimental design was conducted (2³) to evaluate the influence of following variables: temperature (45 to 60 °C), catalyst concentration (0.5 to 1% by weight) and molar ratio of oil/methanol (1/6 to 1/9). In addition, the parametric sensitivity was evaluated by the analysis of variance and model through the response surface. The results showed a tendency of influence of the variables in the reaction conversion. The significance effect was higher for the catalyst concentration followed by the molar ratio of oil/methanol and finally the temperature. The best result was obtained under the conditions of 1% catalyst (KOH), molar ratio oil/methanol of 1/9 and temperature of 60 °C, resulting in an ester content of 99.07%.

Keywords: biodiesel production, factorial design, membrane reactor, soybean oil

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Authors: Josip Visković, Josip Arnerić, Ante Rozga

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Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modelling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.

Keywords: central and east European countries, financial crisis, Markov switching GARCH model, transition probabilities

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Authors: Inosha Bimali, Shambhu P. Adhikari, Sumana Baidya, Nishchal R. Shakya

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Background: An earthquake of 7.8 magnitudes with an epicenter in Gorkha on 25th April 2015 and second earthquake of 6.5 magnitudes with an epicenter at Sindhupalchwok on 12th May 2015 struck the beautiful country of Nepal, killing more than 8,500 people and over 18,500 individuals were left injured with various forms of disabilities. Objectives: To explore number, type and level of disability among post earthquake victims. A door to door physiotherapy rehabilitation program will be conducted at the community level as a continuation of this study. Methods: A survey was carried out in the catchment area of Bahunepati and Manekharka outreach centers of Sindhupalchowk district and Gaurishankar outreach center of Dolakha district of Dhulikhel Hospital. Physical disability was identified using a disability survey form given by Ministry of women, children and social welfare Nepal Government. World health organization disability assessment schedule-2 was used to identify the level of disability. Results: Twenty-nine person with disabilities at Bahunepati, four person with disabilities at Manekharkha and two person with disabilities at Gaurishankar and its catchment area were identified. Level of disability was an average of 56% with majority of survivors having upper extremities fractures followed by lower extremities fractures and miscellaneous injury. Few spinal cord injuries and head injuries were also identified. Conclusion: Though number of person with disabilities was found relatively less, disability level is high; hence an urgent need of physiotherapy rehabilitation is reflected to improve the quality of life of the affected people.

Keywords: community, disability, Nepal earthquake, physiotherapy

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Authors: Felicia Kikelomo Oluwalola

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This study examined lecturers’ perception of the roles of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in Office Technology and Management (OTM) programme in polytechnics, in South-West, Nigeria. Descriptive survey design was adopted in this study. Purposive sampling technique was used to select all OTM lecturers in the nine (9) Polytechnics in the South-West, Nigeria. A 4-rating scale was adopted questionnaire titled ‘Lecturers’ Perception of the Roles of ICT in OTM Programme in Polytechnics’ with a reliability index of 0.93 was used. Two research questions were answered, and one null hypothesis was tested for the study. Data collected was analysed using descriptive statistics, independent t-test and one way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) at 0.05 level of significance. The study revealed that lecturers have right perception of the roles of ICT in OTM programme in polytechnics. Also, the study revealed no significant difference between the mean perception of male and female lecturers in office technology and management. Based on the findings, the study recommended among others that recruitment of professionals in the field of ICT is necessary for effective teaching learning to be established and OTM curriculum should be constantly reviewed to enhance some ICT package that is acceptable globally.

Keywords: communication, information, perception, technology

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Authors: Yousif Mohamed Y. Abdallah, Razan Manofely, Rajab M. Ben Yousef

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X-Ray images are very popular as a first tool for diagnosis. Automating the process of analysis of such images is important in order to help physician procedures. In this practice, teeth segmentation from the radiographic images and feature extraction are essential steps. The main objective of this study was to study correction preprocessing of x-rays images using local adaptive filters in order to evaluate contrast enhancement pattern in different x-rays images such as grey color and to evaluate the usage of new nonlinear approach for contrast enhancement of soft tissues in x-rays images. The data analyzed by using MatLab program to enhance the contrast within the soft tissues, the gray levels in both enhanced and unenhanced images and noise variance. The main techniques of enhancement used in this study were contrast enhancement filtering and deblurring images using the blind deconvolution algorithm. In this paper, prominent constraints are firstly preservation of image's overall look; secondly, preservation of the diagnostic content in the image and thirdly detection of small low contrast details in diagnostic content of the image.

Keywords: enhancement, x-rays, pixel intensity values, MatLab

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Authors: Devatha Kalyan Kumar, R. Poovarasan

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In this paper, we have taken certain important factors and health parameters of diabetes patients especially among children by birth (pediatric congenital) where using the above three metrics methods we are going to assess the importance of each attributes in the dataset and thereby determining the most highly responsible and co-related attribute causing diabetics among young patients. We use cost optimization, control chart and Spearmen methodologies for the real-time application of finding the data efficiency in this diabetes dataset. The Spearmen methodology is the correlation methodologies used in software development process to identify the complexity between the various modules of the software. Identifying the complexity is important because if the complexity is higher, then there is a higher chance of occurrence of the risk in the software. With the use of control; chart mean, variance and standard deviation of data are calculated. With the use of Cost optimization model, we find to optimize the variables. Hence we choose the Spearmen, control chart and cost optimization methods to assess the data efficiency in diabetes datasets.

Keywords: correlation, congenital diabetics, linear relationship, monotonic function, ranking samples, pediatric

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Authors: Chin-Chih Chang

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Many manufacturing systems suffer failures due to complex degradation processes and various environment conditions such as random shocks. Consider an operating system is subject to random shocks and works at random times for successive jobs. When successive jobs often result in production losses and performance deterioration, it would be better to do maintenance or replacement at a planned time. A preventive replacement (PR) policy is presented to replace the system before a failure occurs at a continuous time T. In such a policy, the failure characteristics of the system are designed as follows. Each job would cause a random amount of additive damage to the system, and the system fails when the cumulative damage has exceeded a failure threshold. Suppose that the deteriorating system suffers one of the two types of shocks with age-dependent probabilities: type-I (minor) shock is rectified by a minimal repair, or type-II (catastrophic) shock causes the system to fail. A corrective replacement (CR) is performed immediately when the system fails. In summary, a generalized maintenance model to scheduling replacement plan for an operating system is presented below. PR is carried out at time T, whereas CR is carried out when any type-II shock occurs and the total damage exceeded a failure level. The main objective is to determine the optimal continuous schedule time of preventive replacement through minimizing the mean cost rate function. The existence and uniqueness of optimal replacement policy are derived analytically. It can be seen that the present model is a generalization of the previous models, and the policy with preventive replacement outperforms the one without preventive replacement.

Keywords: preventive replacement, working time, cumulative damage model, minimal repair, imperfect maintenance, optimization

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Authors: Gi Ryung Song, Kyoung Seok Kim

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This study reviewed the literature that focused on similarity of various characteristics such as values, personality, or demographics between employee and other elements in its organization for example employee with leader, job, and organization. We divided a body of this study into two parts and organized and demonstrated recent studies in first part. Three issues appeared in this part, which are statistical ways of measuring similarity, supervisor-subordinate similarity, and person-organization fit with person-job fit. In the latter part, based on the three issues of recent studies, we suggested three propositions about points that the recent studies missed or the studies did not orient. First proposition argued about the direction of similarity, which could also be interpreted as there is causal relation between employee and its workplace environments. Second, we suggested a consideration of eliminating common variance buried in one’s characteristics or its profiles. Third proposition was about the similarity of extra role behavior between individual and organization, and we treated this organization’s level of extra role behavior as a kind of its culture. In doing so, similarity of individual’s extra role behavior and organization’s has the meaning that individual’s congruence against their organization culture.

Keywords: similarity, person-organization fit, supervisor-subordinate similarity, literature review

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Authors: G. Martino, F. Silva, E. Marchal

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The control over delivered iron ore blend characteristics is one of the most important aspects of the mining business. The iron ore price is a function of its composition, which is the outcome of the beneficiation process. So, end-to-end integrated planning of mine operations can reduce risks of penalties on the iron ore price. In a standard iron mining company, the production chain is composed of mining, ore beneficiation, and client supply. When mine planning and client supply decisions are made uncoordinated, the beneficiation plant struggles to deliver the best blend possible. Technological improvements in several fields allowed bridging the gap between departments and boosting integrated decision-making processes. Clusterization and classification algorithms over historical production data generate reasonable previsions for quality and volume of iron ore produced for each pile of run-of-mine (ROM) processed. Mathematical modeling can use those deterministic relations to propose iron ore blends that better-fit specifications within a delivery schedule. Additionally, a model capable of representing the whole production chain can clearly compare the overall impact of different decisions in the process. This study shows how flexibilization combined with a planning optimization model between the mine and the ore beneficiation processes can reduce risks of out of specification deliveries. The model capabilities are illustrated on a hypothetical iron ore mine with magnetic separation process. Finally, this study shows ways of cost reduction or profit increase by optimizing process indicators across the production chain and integrating the different plannings with the sales decisions.

Keywords: clusterization and classification algorithms, integrated planning, mathematical modeling, optimization, penalty minimization

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Authors: Zahid Ahmad, Nosheen Imran, Nauman Ali, Farah Amir

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The objective of the study is to forecast the US Dollar and Pak Rupee exchange rate by using time series models. For this purpose, daily exchange rates of US and Pakistan for the period of January 01, 2007 - June 2, 2017, are employed. The data set is divided into in sample and out of sample data set where in-sample data are used to estimate as well as forecast the models, whereas out-of-sample data set is exercised to forecast the exchange rate. The ADF test and PP test are used to make the time series stationary. To forecast the exchange rate ARIMA model and GARCH model are applied. Among the different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models best model is selected on the basis of selection criteria. Due to the volatility clustering and ARCH effect the GARCH (1, 1) is also applied. Results of analysis showed that ARIMA (0, 1, 1 ) and GARCH (1, 1) are the most suitable models to forecast the future exchange rate. Further the GARCH (1,1) model provided the volatility with non-constant conditional variance in the exchange rate with good forecasting performance. This study is very useful for researchers, policymakers, and businesses for making decisions through accurate and timely forecasting of the exchange rate and helps them in devising their policies.

Keywords: exchange rate, ARIMA, GARCH, PAK/USD

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Authors: I. F. Ejim, F. L. Kamen

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Aims: In this experiment, algae oil extraction with a combination of n-hexane and ethanol was investigated. The effects of extraction solvent concentration, extraction time and temperature on the yield and quality of oil were studied using Response Surface Methodology (RSM). Experimental Design: Optimization of algae oil extraction using Box-Behnken design was used to generate 17 experimental runs in a three-factor-three-level design where oil yield, specific gravity, acid value and saponification value were evaluated as the response. Result: In this result, a minimum oil yield of 17% and maximum of 44% was realized. The optimum values for yield, specific gravity, acid value and saponification value from the overlay plot were 40.79%, 0.8788, 0.5056 mg KOH/g and 180.78 mg KOH/g respectively with desirability of 0.801. The maximum point prediction was yield 40.79% at solvent concentration 66.68 n-hexane, temperature of 40.0°C and extraction time of 4 hrs. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) results showed that the linear and quadratic coefficient were all significant at p<0.05. The experiment was validated and results obtained were with the predicted values. Conclusion: Algae oil extraction was successfully optimized using RSM and its quality indicated it is suitable for many industrial uses.

Keywords: algae oil, response surface methodology, optimization, Box-Bohnken, extraction

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Authors: Uday S. Goel, G. Senthil Kumar, Biswajit Ghosh, V. V. Mahashabde, Dhirendra Kumar, H. Manjunath, Ritesh Kumar, Mahesh Bhagwat, Subodh Pandey

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Tata Steel Bhushan Steel Ltd.(TSBSL)’s Hot Mill at Angul , Orissa , India, was facing shape issues in Hot Rolled (HR) coils. This was resulting in a defect called as ‘Ridge’, which was appearing in subsequent cold rolling operations at various cold mills (CRM) and external customers. A collaborative project was undertaken to resolve this issue. One of the reasons identified was the strange drop in thermal crown after rolling of 20-25 coils in the finishing mill (FM ) schedule. On the shop floor, it was observed that work roll temperatures in the FM after rolling were very high and non uniform across the work roll barrel. Jammed work roll cooling nozzles, insufficient roll bite lubrication and inadequate roll cooling water quality were found to be the main reasons. Regular checking was initiated to check roll cooling nozzles health, and quick replacement done if found jammed was implemented. Improvements on roll lubrication, especially flow rates, was done. Usage of anti-peeling headers and inter stand descaling was enhanced. A subsequent project was also taken up for improving the quality of roll cooling water. Encouraging results were obtained from the project with a reduction in rejection due to ridge at CRM’s by almost 95% of the pre project start levels. Poor profile occurrence of HR coils at HSM was also reduced from a high of 32% in May’19 to <1% since Apr’20.

Keywords: hot rolling flat, shape, ridge, work roll, roll cooling nozzle, lubrication

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Authors: Robin Molinier

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Industrial symbiosis (I.S) deals with both substitution synergies (exchange of waste materials, fatal energy and utilities as resources for production) and infrastructure/service sharing synergies. The latter is based on the intensification of use of an asset and thus requires to balance capital costs increments with snowball effects (network externalities) for its implementation. Initial investors must specify ex-ante arrangements (cost sharing and pricing schedule) to commit toward investments in capacities and transactions. Our model investigate the decision of 2 actors trying to choose cooperatively a level of infrastructure capacity oversizing to set a plug-and-play offer to a potential entrant whose capacity requirement is randomly distributed while satisficing their own requirements. Capacity cost exhibits sub-additive property so that there is room for profitable overcapacity setting in the first period. The entrant’s willingness-to-pay for the access to the infrastructure is dependent upon its standalone cost and the capacity gap that it must complete in case the available capacity is insufficient ex-post (the complement cost). Since initial capacity choices are driven by ex-ante (expected) yield extractible from the entrant we derive the expected complement cost function which helps us defining the investors’ objective function. We first show that this curve is decreasing and convex in the capacity increments and that it is shaped by the distribution function of the potential entrant’s requirements. We then derive the general form of solutions and solve the model for uniform and triangular distributions. Depending on requirements volumes and cost assumptions different equilibria occurs. We finally analyze the effect of a per-unit subsidy a public actor would apply to foster such sharing synergies.

Keywords: capacity, cooperation, industrial symbiosis, pricing

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Authors: Samson Henry Dogo, Allan Clark, Elena Kulinskaya

Abstract:

The objective in meta-analysis is to combine results from several independent studies in order to create generalization and provide evidence based for decision making. But recent studies show that the magnitude of effect size estimates reported in many areas of research finding changed with year publication and this can impair the results and conclusions of meta-analysis. A number of sequential methods have been proposed for monitoring the effect size estimates in meta-analysis. However they are based on statistical theory applicable to fixed effect model (FEM). For random-effects model (REM), the analysis incorporates the heterogeneity variance, tau-squared and its estimation create complications. In this paper proposed the use of Gombay and Serbian (2005) truncated CUSUM-type test with asymptotically valid critical values for sequential monitoring of REM. Simulation results show that the test does not control the Type I error well, and is not recommended. Further work required to derive an appropriate test in this important area of application.

Keywords: meta-analysis, random-effects model, sequential test, temporal changes in effect sizes

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Authors: Hene L. Hapinat, Mae D. Dumapig

Abstract:

This study aimed to determine the lime potential of 3 mollusks, namely: Crassostrea iredalei (Oyster shell), Turritella terebra (Turret shell), and Anodontia edentula (Mangrove clam shell) as alternative for commercially produced agricultural lime. The hydrogen ion concentration (pH) and the lime concentration using Calcium Carbonate Equivalent (CCE) of each shellfish species were measured and tested for the enhancement of an acidic soil. The experiment was laid out in a Completely Randomized Design (CRD) with 4 treatments replicated 3 times. The treatments were as follows: Treatment A- 100 g agricultural lime; B- 100 g oyster shell lime; C- 100 g turret shell lime; and D- 100 g mangrove clam shell lime. Each treatment was combined to the acidic soil sample. The results were statistically analyzed using One-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and Least Square Difference (LSD) at 0.01 and 0.05 levels of significance. Results revealed that lime produced from the 3 selected mollusks can be a potential source of alternative and/or supplement materials for agricultural lime in dealing with soil acidity, entailing lower cost of farm production.

Keywords: shell lime, pH, calcium carbonate concentrations, mollusks, agricultural lime, lime potential concentration, acidic soil

Procedia PDF Downloads 312

Authors: H. Ben Salah, A. Gannoun, C. de Peretti, A. Trabelsi

Abstract:

The Downside Risk (DSR) model for portfolio optimisation allows to overcome the drawbacks of the classical mean-variance model concerning the asymetry of returns and the risk perception of investors. This model optimization deals with a positive definite matrix that is endogenous with respect to portfolio weights. This aspect makes the problem far more difficult to handle. For this purpose, Athayde (2001) developped a new recurcive minimization procedure that ensures the convergence to the solution. However, when a finite number of observations is available, the portfolio frontier presents an appearance which is not very smooth. In order to overcome that, Athayde (2003) proposed a mean kernel estimation of the returns, so as to create a smoother portfolio frontier. This technique provides an effect similar to the case in which we had continuous observations. In this paper, taking advantage on the the robustness of the median, we replace the mean estimator in Athayde's model by a nonparametric median estimator of the returns. Then, we give a new version of the former algorithm (of Athayde (2001, 2003)). We eventually analyse the properties of this improved portfolio frontier and apply this new method on real examples.

Keywords: Downside Risk, Kernel Method, Median, Nonparametric Estimation, Semivariance

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Authors: Yasin Tadayonrad

Abstract:

Most of the supply chain networks have many nodes starting from the suppliers’ side up to the customers’ side that each node sends/receives the raw materials/products from/to the other nodes. One of the major concerns in this kind of supply chain network is finding the best schedule for loading /unloading the shipments through the whole network by which all the constraints in the source and destination nodes are met and all the shipments are delivered on time. One of the main constraints in this problem is loading/unloading capacity in each source/ destination node at each time slot (e.g., per week/day/hour). Because of the different characteristics of different products/groups of products, the capacity of each node might differ based on each group of products. In most supply chain networks (especially in the Fast-moving consumer goods industry), there are different planners/planning teams working separately in different nodes to determine the loading/unloading timeslots in source/destination nodes to send/receive the shipments. In this paper, a mathematical problem has been proposed to find the best timeslots for loading/unloading the shipments minimizing the overall delays subject to respecting the capacity of loading/unloading of each node, the required delivery date of each shipment (considering the lead-times), and working-days of each node. This model was implemented on python and solved using Python-MIP on a sample data set. Finally, the idea of a heuristic algorithm has been proposed as a way of improving the solution method that helps to implement the model on larger data sets in real business cases, including more nodes and shipments.

Keywords: supply chain management, transportation, multiple-multiple network, timeslots management, mathematical modeling, mixed integer programming

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Taraneh Ashrafi Motlagh, Abdolrasoul Daneshjoo

Abstract:

Background and Aim: Increased fatigue causes injuries; the purpose of this article was to investigate the angular displacement of the hip and knee joints in girls with patellofemoral syndrome. Materials and Methods: Thirty girls with an average age (age 28.73±1.83, height 168.49±5.59, weight 63.73±12.73) participated in this study in two groups of 15, experimental and control. The jet evaluation test was taken from the subjects' knee and thigh angle, and then these tests were repeated with the application of different inclines of the treadmill; the tests were examined in a neutral position and in a positive and negative slope of 5 degrees. The mean and standard deviation were used to describe the data, and the Shapirovik test was used for the normalization of the data to compare and examine the variables in the two research groups using an independent t-test and repeated analysis of variance at a significance level of 0.05. Conclusion: In general, according to the current studies of people with patellofemoral syndrome, running on steep inclines, as well as running on a treadmill and making the incline angle of the treadmill within the limit of minus 5% to plus 5%, does not affect the improvement of this condition, and it is not recommended. And according to the research, girls with patellofemoral syndrome should be placed on the treadmill at an inclined angle to run.

Keywords: patellofemoral syndrome, angular displacement of the knee, angular displacement of the thigh

Procedia PDF Downloads 58